Hogs and Pigs Report Coming USDA releases its quarterly hogs and pigs inventory report after trading closes today and ahead of the three-day holiday...
Articles
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
“Where did those acres go?” That’s the question analysts around the world are asking in the wake of toady’s USDA reports. The repor...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Power of Phonies; Weakness of Sanctions; Meat with Crossbones
Power of Phonies According to Polish author Tomak Jankowski, the biologist Trofim Lysenko sought to make a name for himself in the early days of the Soviet...
Market Commentary
Low volume and mixed price movement for grains and the soy complex characterized both overnight trading and the day session. Most traders seem to be positi...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for gra...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 March 2018 Domestic feed grain prices continued to rise, primarily due to higher demand from exporters. However, FOB prices st...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The fireworks were in the livestock futures markets today as lean hog futures pulled an impressive reversal on big trading volumes. This support spilled ov...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Pig Prices Fall for 10th Straight Week Despite optimism from some market observers regarding the near and mid-term strength of China’s...
Trade Somersaults; Self-Inflicted Hurt
Trade Somersaults Analysts are now writing that U.S. trade policy is destabilizing the world economy, though Trump supporters would say that global trade p...
Market Commentary
In contrast to the heavy volume during the Sunday/Monday overnight session, trade was very light last night and in the early morning. Futures price action...
Biofuel and Bankruptcy
Yesterday was the deadline for the bankruptcy case filed by Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES). A settlement approved by a federal judge includes a contro...
A Key Week for the Market
The factors that affect the grain and soy markets’ price movements are obviously always changing. However, there are times when the potential for the...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Overnight trading was slow and mixed with little direction ahead of Thursday’s plantings report. The day session featured mixed trade that ended most...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soy Crop; U.S. Soymeal Export Sales to Europe; Chinese Crush Subsidies and Soy Imports
Argentine Weekend Rainfall Disappoints The weekend rains predicted for the driest areas of Argentina largely did not occur. There were some in the far nort...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egyptian officials say that the government plans to buy at least 4 MMT of local wheat in 2018, an incre...
High Leverage, Limited Results; Pathogens and Probiotics
High Leverage, Limited Results President Donald Trump’s strategy of using the imposition of tariffs to extract trade concessions is working but not i...
30 March Planting Intentions
As has been noted, USDA will release its 2018 planting intentions estimates on 30 March at noon (EDT), which will be the first ones for the year that are b...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight in very good trading volume for a night session. U.S. equity markets were expected to recover some of Friday’s big loss...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The South American markets keep rising as President Trump’s announcement last week that he would impose duties on Chinese st...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
March Cattle on Feed
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report, released 23 March, showed the number of cattle in 1,000+ capacity feedlots at 11.7 million head as of 1 M...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was again little changed last week. Russia’s domestic prices as well as the ruble remained stable. Its new crop 12...
Cattle on Feed
United States Cattle on Feed up 9 Percent on March 1, 2018. Placements in feedlots during February 2018 were 7 percent above 2017. Marketings of fed cattle...
Trade Wars and Surrender; Compensating the Victims; African Opportunity
Trade Wars and Surrender With this week’s retaliation announcements by China and the EU, the trade war has begun. Then again, all trade and trade pol...
Ag Highlights of Budget Bill
The president signed the omnibus spending bill today after a brief veto threat over the lack of a legislative provision for the Deferred Action on Childhoo...
Market Commentary
Overnight volume was big with markets down significantly on the heels of the U.S. equity markets’ collapse after commodity trading closed yesterday...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Will the trade dispute with China become the “Black Swan” event for 2018 markets? Market chatter today would suggest it will, but as John Baize...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Shows Deficit While the government of India (GOI) has forecast the 2017/18 soybean crop at 11.39 MMT, the trade and indus...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
More Europe First; Taxing Ideas; Poor FTA Choice; “Unknown” and “May”
More Europe First The European Parliament will vote on a report from its agriculture committee that proposes subsidizing protein crops. Emphasized in the r...
Market Commentary
The weekly USDA/FASS export sales report has been delayed until tomorrow (Friday) morning because of the winter storm that forced the closure of government...
Sound and Fury Over Trade
Did the increasing globalization of world economies and politics lead to expanding world trade, or did expanding world trade lead to increasing globalizati...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Removes Biodiesel Duties; Reality for China on Soybeans
EU Removes Antidumping Duties on Argentine and Indonesian Biodiesel Imports The EU has removed antidumping duties on biodiesel imports from Argentina and I...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Wheat – particularly KC HRW futures – rose today on continued drought/heat for the Southern Plains states while corn and soybean futures were l...
Ag Review - March 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook f...
Cattle on Feed Estimates; China’s Retaliation
Cattle on Feed USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on...
Market Commentary
To no one’s surprise, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its interest rate a quarter-percent to a still his...
Tough and Crazy; Ethanol Rescue; Functional Congress; Export only Agriculture
Tough and Crazy The EU issued its 10 pages of proposed retaliation products in response to President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, and now U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 March, 2018 Domestic feed grain prices grew significantly, especially in the European part of Russia and particularly for corn...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
CBOT row crop futures traded a quiet day with little news to elicit excitement ahead of the Prospective Plantings report. CME livestock futures, on the oth...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again as Pig Prices Fall Further China’s estimated nationwide soymeal inventory reached just under 800,000 MT as of...
China Differences; Might at WTO; Hiding Behind the Law
China Differences A hog slaughter plant was rejected in the U.S. farm state of Nebraska for not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) reasons, but scale production is vie...
Waiting on a Budget; Seeking a Tax Fix
Congress is completely consumed by the spending bill, which was to have been unveiled today. Indeed, it’s nearly halfway through FY 2018, and federal...
Market Commentary
During overnight trading, grain and soy markets tried to recover from the beating they took on Monday but with very limited success. Prices were firmer, al...
2018/19 U.S. Wheat Outlook By Class
U.S. wheat futures markets have been buffeted by a number of sometimes conflicting fundamental trends in the last nine months. Very low wheat prices in 201...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
CBOT grain futures were largely beneficiaries of a dead cat bounce today – lead by soybean futures – while livestock futures continued their im...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt is adjusting its ration card system, raising the value from $1.17/month to $2.78/month due to inc...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Rain; Brazil’s Soy Yields; China’s Soybean and Corn Plantings
Weekend Rains Received in Some Areas of Argentina After months of essentially no rainfall, 1-2 inches (2.5–5 cm) were received in parts of Argentina...
WTO Makeover; Taxing Success; Ring-Fence Skepticism
WTO Makeover There is reasonable concern that the Trump administration is blocking the appointment of appellant judges at the WTO as part of a goal to impl...
The MY 2018/19 Sleeper Crop
WPI is not alone in pegging corn as the potential “sleeper” crop in MY 2018/19. World corn ending supplies have been edging lower in the past f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina It was a quiet week in the soybean market. There are still players with long positions who are offering their final cargoes of what is a...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday evening session with across-the-board losses. KC wheat was the biggest loser, down more than a dime early. The rainfall map for...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was about unchanged last week. There were no significant moves in the Russian domestic market, and the ruble was slightl...
Trump’s Success M.O.; DBR vs. Pastoralism; Beating GMO Opposition; Farm Bill Fights
Trump’s Success M.O. Melissa Francis, co-host of After the Bell on Fox Business, wrote a piece in today’s Wall Street Journal chiding those who...
Larry Kudlow and Explaining the Coming Trade Deficit Expansion
The vacancy on the White House National Economic Council (NEC), which resulted from Gary Cohn’s resignation after the president enacted steel and alu...
Worsening Weather Problems
The markets have certainly been full of weather talk lately with outlooks for Argentina probably the first item every oilseed trader looks at each day. A v...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally soft overnight. That pattern of weakness then held throughout today in corn and wheat markets, but the soy complex did not follow an...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn Exports Unlikely Without More Signifcant Drop in Domestic Prices Domestic corn prices in the key rabi production center (Gulabbagh, Bihar) have contin...
Repetition Doesn’t Make It Right; Omnibus Vehicle; Loading up NAFTA; Bulls and Subsidies
Repetition Doesn’t Make It Right Donald Trump is threatening more tariffs on imports from countries that he blames for conducting unfair pract...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine and Brazilian Soybean Crops; NOPA Crush; Soy Export Sales
Argentine Soy Crop Forecast Cut to 40 MMT The Rosario Grain Exchange today slashed its forecast for Argentina’s 2018 soybean crop from its February e...
Dairy Reforms Keep Coming; Cattle Price Reactions to COF Reports
Dairy Reforms Keep Coming The emergency appropriations bill that passed on 9 February included additional cash and some reforms to the dairy Margin Protect...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices generally firmer in something of a recovery from Wednesday’s lingering weakness. Soybeans and MGEX spr...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Looking at Corn Export Sales
Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 8 March showed the expected trend of large sales for corn, soybeans and soy products but a v...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The grain markets “closed early” today as most trader’s attention turned to the start of NCAA’s March Madness basketball tournament...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s export sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Export Sales
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 March 2018 Domestic feed grain prices grew slightly in the European part of Russia, and milling wheat prices remained stable in...
Moral-Based Trade II; Data Dump; Conference Fever
Moral-Based Trade II The European Parliament (EP) has passed a resolution calling for the inclusion of gender equality goals in free trade agreements. As W...
Market Commentary
A swirl of rumors about possible new trade actions against China from the Trump administration provided a backdrop for today’s grain and soy futures...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and oilseeds were mostly lower today and the livestock complex’s early leap higher melted down at midday. The weather in Argentina is less thr...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventories Down Sharply at End of February A significant increase in feed demand at the end of February pushed China’s estimated na...
Resistance versus Capitulation; Typical Scapegoat; Fix at Hand; Fishy; No Thanks
Resistance versus Capitulation Reaction to the Trump administration’s proposed steel and aluminum tariffs is diverse. The EU says it should be exempt...
Market Commentary
Overnight price action saw grain and soy prices continue the firmer trend set by the rebound from earlier losses late in Monday’s day session that wa...
Glitch Fix; Making The RFS Great Again; From GMO Labeling to Secretary of State
Glitch Fix The Section 199A tax deduction preference for co-ops, which USDA Secretary Perdue called a “glitch,” seems to be moving toward a res...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian and Chinese Soybean Imports
India Importing Record Volume of Soybeans High domestic soybean prices in India coupled with a smaller domestic crop in 2017 is causing processors in that...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grain futures were mostly higher, especially in early trading, as technical conditions and weather issues around the world provided support. Cattle prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS According to the latest information on its new trade agreement with Russia and Kazakhstan, Iran has agr...
Corn Market Debate
The surprise in the March WASDE was USDA’s aggressive increase in estimated demand for U.S. corn during the second half of the 2017/18 crop year, rai...
RFS Reform Turmoil Continues
The White House was to hold a meeting today, chaired by Vice President Pence, to discuss more options on price relief for Renewable Identification Numbers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The South American soybean market was very active again last week. Despite rising CBOT futures and basis levels, demand from China remained...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft in the Sunday evening session. There was light rainfall across 20-25 percent of Argentina with another chance for showers later this week...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Considering all the recent chatter about free trade, fair trade, NAFTA, steel and aluminum quotas, etc., a farmer from eastern Montana has pointed out that...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remains supported in the absence of farmers’ selling pressure. The domestic market in Russia was about unchanged l...
Goofy Retaliation List; The Other Shoe; 232 “Alternative” Means
Goofy Retaliation List The Trump administration’s Section 232 action is as awkward and off target as its namesake. So too is the retaliation list rep...
Policy Potpourri
Following is an end-of-the-week roundup on some percolating policy matters: Steel Tariffs: President Trump signed the steel and aluminum tariff order yeste...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight and turned much more so today with soybeans and wheat leading the charge lower. Among the numerous bearish factors affecting ma...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected Based on the projected increase in sugarcane production (see Ag Perspectives, 2 March), a higher crush as well as good rec...
Serious Problems for Hard Red Winter Wheat
The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is on the verge of a total collapse for several reasons, including: As much as 40 percent of the entire HRW region of...
Market Commentary
President Trump signed a proclamation this afternoon establishing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum over the objection of many Republicans in Congress...
North American Livestock; Conventional Egg Mandate
North American Livestock The semi-annual estimate of combined U.S. and Canadian swine and cattle herds was released yesterday. As of 1 January, all cattle...
USDA’s March WASDE
Much like February WASDEs, the March editions are typically viewed as nonevents in terms of market significance since they are essentially released between...
232 Obfuscation; Deceptive Absence; Welcome to Big
232 Obfuscation With most steel and aluminum imports coming from strategic geopolitical partners, the Trump administration’s use of the Section 232 n...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Forecast Revisions in the WASDE
Large US. Soy Export Sales Last Week USDA’s weekly export sales report of today surprisingly showed a major increase in the volume of U.S. soybeans s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The much-anticipated March WASDE featured mostly bullish news for grains and oilseed traders. Notably, the USDA reduced South American soybean and corn sup...
Export Sales
U.S. corn export show strength. Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current d...
WASDE Soymeal
Soybean meal prices are projected at $325 to $355 per short ton, up $20.00 at the midpoint. Higher soybean meal prices reflect the impact of sharply...
WASDE Soyoil
With increased crush, soybean oil production is raised. An increase in food use is more than offset by lower biodiesel use, leaving domestic disappea...
WASDE Soybeans
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2017/18 include higher crush, lower exports, and increased ending stocks compared with last month’s report. S...
WASDE Corn
Major global trade changes for 2017/18 this month include higher projected corn exports for the United States more than offsetting a reduction for Argentin...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat exports for 2017/18 are reduced 25 million bushels to 925 million, while ending stocks are raised by the same amount. Exports are lowered...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets traded lower overnight and mostly lower again during the day session, reflecting the growing uncertainties facing traders. Th...
Steel Threats; Another Transatlantic Flipping; Meat or Poison
Steel Threats President Donald Trump is set to announce his decision tomorrow on Section 232 duties to be applied to imported steel and aluminum products...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February-2 March 2018 Domestic grain prices remained stable in all regions except for the decreases in western Siberia. Milling w...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Ag commodities trading was quiet today as the markets wait for USDA’s WASDE report tomorrow. Most CBOT products traded both sides of unchanged before...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Declines from Week Before China’s estimated nationwide soymeal inventory totaled 938,800 MT as of 23 February, a slight in...
Market Commentary
The overnight session was a low volume affair with corn and the soy complex doing very little in either direction. Meanwhile, winter wheat markets gave bac...
Why Trump Wants Trade War; Beggar Farm Policy; Heavy Pruning for Finance
Why Trump Wants Trade War The U.S. media is emphasizing the impending harm from steel and aluminum tariffs to be imposed by President Donald Trump. These i...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Cochran, Dean of Ag Committee, to Resign
The Senate Agriculture Committee has had some unusual turnover this year, and more is coming. Following is a timeline of the changes. Senator Jeff Sessions...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Drought;, U.S. Soybean Sales to China; Indian Tariffs
No Relief for Argentine Crops Some meteorologists indicate this year’s summer growing season is turning out to be the driest in Argentine history. Th...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The rally in ag commodities faltered somewhat today as lower cash soymeal prices and a warming trend in the Black Sea pressured the soy complex and wheat m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The growth in Turkey’s animal feed industry is very interesting, rising approximately 8 percent p...
Wheat Market Conundrums
The southern Plains drought has essentially been in place since late last fall. It intensified over the winter, spreading mainly south and west but also ea...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Last week was very volatile. Basis in Brazil had been rising slowly in the past few months. Demand was gradually increasing bids, although this wa...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Beneficial Elimination; Harvest Box Hurdles
Beneficial Elimination Greenpeace wants the rewrite of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to withdraw support for animal agriculture and inste...
One More Puzzle Piece in Place
The February rally came at a very good time for U.S. farmers as that is the month the initial (and minimum) price guarantees are established for the federa...
Market Commentary
Markets were largely neutral overnight. Ongoing dry weather in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains (hard red winter wheat) was offset by fears of just w...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
More on the Impact of Section 199A Deduction
The “glitch” in the new Section 199A tax deduction provision that incentivizes sales of commodities to cooperatives and leaves a landowner far...
Trump Ready for Trade War
During the 2016 presidential campaign, we noted that one key of the Trump Trade Doctrine was that trade policy must “strengthen the U.S. manufacturin...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Corn is the One to Watch
The soybean and soymeal markets have been on a rather spectacular roll over the last 30 days as the rains never came to Argentina. That has recent estimate...
Market Commentary
Soybeans finished the night session strong with 8-9 cent gains, while wheat was mixed and corn a penny higher. Volume of trade was very big. Markets opened...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Planned Excess
Contrary to President Trump’s latest boast, trade wars are not good and not easy to win. U.S. agriculture now feels threatened by the effort to prote...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Second Advance Production Estimates Project Record Food Grain Production The government of India (GOI) released the Second Advanced Estimates for Agricultu...
Two-Year RIN Cap and DDGS; Bearish Outlook for Broilers
Two-Year RIN Cap and DDGS President Trump today voiced his support for a two-year cap on the price of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) during...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex featured erratic up-and-down price movement, although the price range was limited amid moderate volume. Soy...
Overwrought Iron; Ethanol Compromise Conflict; Inflation and Market
Overwrought Iron President Trump announced today that he would be imposing protective duties on imports of steel (25 percent) and aluminum (10 percent). Th...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine and Brazilian Soy Crops; U.S. Export Sales; India’s Oilseeds
Forecast for Argentine Soybean Crop Reduced Again The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today lowered its forecast for the Argentine 2018 soybean crop from 47 MM...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Commodities are in Vogue Again
In the 1840s, the ad hoc trading of physical lots of wheat, corn, rye, oats and hay on a street corner in Chicago eventually became transaction-based on st...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Export Sales
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Market Commentary
Green was the color of the day for grain and soy markets. Prices wavered a bit at the opening of overnight trading, but they soon began to push higher. Som...
Commodities’ Day in the Sun; Fixing U.S.–Vietnam Trade
Commodities’ Day in the Sun Pulling agricultural commodity prices out of the basement requires either a larger boost in demand or a shortfall in supp...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 February 2018 Domestic grain prices continued to rise due to growing export prices in all regions except Siberia where they re...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends China’s Ag Imports Climb Nearly 13 Percent in 2017 With the conclusion of China’s Lunar New Year celebrations, its Ministry of Com...
Ag Review - February 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of farm inputs and equipment, the U.S. grain industry, the global soybean outlook, U.S. meat and livestock indu...
States versus Canada; Liu He Hollow Gift; Clean Label Antithesis
States versus Canada At least two U.S. states (Wyoming and Oklahoma) are considering their own country-of-origin labeling requirement on beef. Colorado ear...
Market Commentary
Tomorrow (28 February) is the first day for delivery intentions against March futures contracts. As of the close yesterday, more than 105,000 contracts of...
Let the Guessing Games Begin
The noted economist John Kenneth Galbraith famously observed that “the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,&r...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
RFS Reform: Iowa versus Texas
This is the day of a big White House meeting on reforming the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). News of it being scheduled, which broke late last week, was en...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soy Crop; Brazilian Soy Sales; EU Rapeseed; China Soy Imports
Argentine Soybean Crop Forecast Drops In its 23 February issue, Oil World reduced its forecast for Argentina’s 2018 soybean crop to 43 MMT or less. H...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Note: The Closing Bell Wrap-Up will be on vacation Wednesday and Thursday this week, but will return next week. Poor crop condition ratings in Kansas...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has announced that the local wheat purchase price will be released in March, approximately one mo...
Rejet de la Modernité; Fake Food News; Ethanol “Fix"
Rejet de la Modernité French President Emmanuel Macron is preparing his nation’s farmers for change, but it isn’t clear that his plan is...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
MERCOSUR Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Argentina received poor rains the past week and crop estimates keep dropping. The latest forecast fell another 3 MMT to 46.5, maki...
Market Commentary
General Comments Wheat, corn and soybean markets were higher overnight with good trading volume. Wheat and soybeans were the leaders and that fact co...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remains well supported due to increasing demand from the major destinations in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia. T...
Section 199A Tax Glitch Deepens
WPI has written several times about the unintended consequences of Section 199A in the recently passed U.S. tax reform bill, including Dave Juday’s a...
February Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report Friday, which showed the total number of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of more than 1,000 as of...
China Won’t Eat American; Canada NAFTA Hearing; Technology, Productivity and Inequality
China Won’t Eat American Senior USDA agricultural attaché Michael Ward lamented Chinese barriers to U.S. food exports at today’s a...
Getting Partisan on Pass-Through
Perhaps it was inevitable given the partisan nature of the tax reform debate and passage, but now the debate surrounding the biggest ag-related issue in th...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on&...
Fail-Safe USDA Numbers
USDA released an initial glimpse at of its MY 2018/19 U.S. supply and demand estimates early this morning, which were fail-safe across the board. They caus...
Market Commentary
Markets were slightly higher overnight in relatively light trading volume. Corn was a penny higher, and soybeans were up 3-4 cents as were KC and Chicago w...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. USDA’s e...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Prices Up, but DDGS Not Available as Alternative The Soybean Oil Processors Association (SOPA) has again trimmed its estimate for India’s 201...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Cynical Thoughts; Cotton Collision; ISDS Confusion
Cynical Thoughts French NGO Générations Future has copied a page from American NGO Environmental Working Group (EWG) and erroneously declared...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy complex futures had low volume and was quiet without much price movement. Soybeans were a couple of cents lower, but corn...
Cattle on Feed Estimates
USDA’s Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed to be 108.5 per...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Soy Crop and Seed Issue; U.S. Biodiesel Tariffs; Canadian Plantings; Parana Harvest
Rosario Exchange Sharply Reduces Argentine Soybean Estimate Yesterday the Rosario Grain Exchange reduced its estimate of the Argentine soybean crop from 52...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Profile of American Farms
Each year USDA/NASS conducts a Farms and Land in Farms survey regarding economic demographics. The results are usually released in time for USDA’s an...
Brexit Strangle; TPP Hope; Unnatural Claim; Your Trees
Brexit Strangle UK Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Michael Gove told the National Farmers Union that environmental and animal we...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s grain and soy futures markets sold off well below the highs reached earlier in the session and closed unenthusiastically with a weak tone...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 February 2018 Domestic grain prices continued to rise due to growing export prices, although strengthening of the ruble somewh...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
China In-Country Analysis
Cultural 2018 Lunar New Year Ushers in the Year the Dog 16 February 2018 was the first day of the Chinese New Year, which also represents the commencement...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Cattle futures closed sharply lower today on falling demand while the wheat markets continued to give back recent gains as well. Corn was slightly higher w...
Market Commentary
Over the long weekend, rainfall in Argentina was limited to portions of Buenos Aires as the rest of the main crop areas remaining dry. That plus a forecast...
Ethanol: USDA versus EIA
USDA released its baseline projections for 2018-2027 last week on the same day that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its Annual Ener...
Are Soybeans Bullish or Bearish?
It may be that we spend too much time discussing the current soy complex. After all, there are currently some market-interesting developments in corn and w...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy Crop; Indonesia’s Soybean Restrictions; Export Inspections
Forecasts for Brazil’s Soybean Crop Keep Increasing If the analysts in Brazil are correct, the soybean crop there will be huge this year. Yesterday S...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
It wasn’t exactly “turnaround Tuesday” since the markets were closed yesterday, but it sure felt like it was. Wheat futures fell hard on...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Turkey’s total grain purchases from Russia are reported to have increased from 1.66 MMT in 2016/1...
Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation
Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs o...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectiv...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was hi...
Undermining 232 Rationale; Trump View Vindicated; MAAlicious
Undermining 232 Rationale The U.S. Commerce Department announced the results of its Section 232 investigation into imports of aluminum and steel. It was fo...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Heitkamp versus Cramer: It’s On!
A little “water cooler” office conversation (albeit conducted electronically) at WPI this week centered on handicapping the North Dakota Senate...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Market Commentary
Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. A...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The annual USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum will take place next week (22-23 February) in Washington, DC. USDA will issue preliminary unofficial estimates o...
Origin Labeling Loser; War of Words; Taxes and Budgets
Origin Labeling Loser The U.S. beef industry feels embattled. After years of contending with health risk warnings about its product, marketers of plant pro...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets traded rather quietly overnight with prices holding mostly steady to mildly firmer. However, prices for soybeans and wheat began to t...
Fundamental Winds of Change
USDA made several changes a week ago to its supply/demand estimates for the U.S. and the world that were unusual for a February WASDE. With South American...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Weather; Export Sales; Brazil’s Soy Losses, NOPA Crush Report
Little Rain in Dry Argentine Areas until March Two weather forecasters in Argentina have told Reuters that they do not expect any break in the drought impa...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
If this was NPR’s Marketplace, we’d be playing the happy music right now. CBOT grains and oilseeds, along with most CME livestock futures, clos...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Aussie Beef; U.S. Cattle; Moratorium on Iowa Livestock Sought
Aussie Beef Back on the Global Market Australia’s beef exports are making a comeback, up 19.7 percent last month over January 2017, and they could be...
Export Sales
This week’s Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market’s likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export p...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Market Commentary
The overnight session found prices trading mostly lower, which was in line with selling late Tuesday that took prices down to closes that were mostly well...
TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?
TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 February 2018 A moderate upward trend continued in the domestic grain market (in RUB expression) due to growing export prices an...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
It was a mixed day at the CBOT with wheat lower, corn higher, and the entire soy complex (yes, including soyoil) higher. Trading, however, lacked the vigor...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course and Falls Below 1 MMT Pre-Lunar New Year holiday demand pushed wholesale soymeal prices slightly higher as of 2...
Four Reasons to be Bearish Soybeans
Yesterday soybean contracts experienced a momentary setback because of China's cancellation of U.S. soybeans and a weak export inspection number. Traders w...
Historical Inequality; Fighting Fear; Not Innovative; Spinning Wheels
Historical Inequality This week President Trump resurrected his contention that a “reciprocal tax” should be imposed that equalizes the tariffs...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Rains Disappoint; Soy Sales Cancellations; Egypt’s Sunflower Oil Purchase
Argentine Rains Disappoint The rains that fell last Friday and Saturday in Argentina were far too little and not widespread enough to help the soybean crop...
Market Commentary
Trading during the overnight session turned much quieter in terms of price action and volume versus Sunday night and Monday. Prices traded both sides of ye...
Impact of Small Refinery Exemptions on the RFS
In August 2017, the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that the EPA was too strict in granting exemptions for small refineries under the Re...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Soybeans were the highlight of the CBOT/CME sessions today, leading the way higher amid a sea of otherwise red prices. Corn and wheat futures were lower on...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat sales are said to have reached about 750,000 MT at FOB prices of $190-195 /MT in...
Soy Products and the Argentine Drought
Argentina’s La Nina-related drought has increasingly grabbed market headlines since late December. The rains that had been predicted for that country...
Rural Infrastructure; Chinese Countryside; EU Identity Politics; Ag Budget
Rural Infrastructure President Trump’s newly announced infrastructure plan gives some priority to rural areas by making them an early beneficiary of...
A Look at "An American Budget"
President Donald Trump has been labeled – by friends and foes alike – as a marketing and branding wizard. He hasn’t lost that touch movin...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Market Commentary
The markets started with good gains in the Sunday evening session, led by double-digit increases in soybeans on the heels of a sharp rally in soymeal futur...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Tax Glitch Sill Not Fixed
One of the late changes to the recently passed U.S. tax reform bill created some significant, unintended consequences that gave farmers a huge tax break an...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics On 9 February, a portion of the grain truck drivers’ union called for a strike across Argentina that is also preventing those who are...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is slightly firmer. The Russian 12.5 pro is offered at $200/MT FOB, which is about $2/MT higher than last Monday despite...
Details on the Continuing Resolution
After a brief midnight shutdown, Congress approved yet another modified stopgap budget package in the early hours of this morning. This is the fifth contin...
Trump Triangulates, Canada’s Soft Underbelly
Trump Triangulates As one U.S. trade policy official described the situation, it is Alice in Wonderland, where up is down and small is big – a real f...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Market Commentary
The general chaos that has plagued the U.S. financial markets this week is having a negative spillover impact on more markets. Crude oil dropped more than...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Duties on Sugar and Chickpea Imports Have Immediate Effect To keep a check on prices, the government of India (GOI) has raised the duty on sugar fro...
Yield Risks?
The general attitude of the markets is that the world is “awash” in everything. It’s tough to argue that statement if looking at the abso...
Market Commentary
As the markets waited for USDA’s February WASDE at noon (EST) today, overnight trading volume declined rather sharply from its heavy level earlier th...
The February WASDE
The February WASDE typically generates few surprises. In that sense, today’s report stands out as containing some changes that exceeded expectations...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Oilseed Highlights: USDA Forecast Revisions; Brazil’s Weather Woes; Export Sales
USDA Cuts Forecast for U.S. Soybean Exports Again and Revises Other Estimates Today USDA unsurprisingly further reduced its forecast for U.S. soybean expor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
USDA surprised the markets today with significant changes to its U.S. commodity balance sheets. After the initial surprise, however, market settled down an...
WASDE Soyoil
Soybean oil prices are forecast at 31 to 34 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. Global oilseed crush for 2017/18 is projected at 487.5...
WASDE Soymeal
Soybean meal prices are projected at $305 to $335 per short ton, up $5 at the midpoint. Global oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected...
Scale in Africa; Theory versus History; Glyphosate Bubbling; Export Restriction
Scale Needed in Africa The Overseas Development Institute (ODI), a research group funded by governments, international organizations and development groups...
WASDE Soybeans
2017/18 U.S. soybean outlook is for reduced exports and increased ending stocks. Soybean exports for 2017/18 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, down 6...
WASDE Corn
Global corn production is lowered 2.8 million tons largely reflecting reductions for Argentina and Ukraine. For Argentina, persistent heat and dryness...
WASDE Wheat
Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 20 million bushels as higher food use is more than offset by lower exports, while export fore...
Export Sales
This week’s Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market’s likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export p...
Spending Bill Comes with Key Changes for Dairy, Livestock and Farm Bill
Congress has come up with a spending package to avoid a government shutdown. If passed, the spending blueprint would fund the government for two years, tak...
Addressing China’s Mercantilism; Rush to Work Less
Addressing China’s Mercantilism U.S. sorghum prices plummeted 25 percent on word that China has used imports of this commodity from the U.S. as a ret...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures opened the overnight session mostly stronger on follow-up momentum and the bullish technical signals generated by Tuesday’s pri...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January-2 February 2018 There was an upward trend in prices for all grains as a saturated domestic market continued reacting to t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Wheat led the way higher in today’s trading with corn rising slightly and soybeans falling in choppy trading. The stage for today’s wheat rally...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Rises Above 1 MMT China’s nationwide estimated soybean inventory surpassed 1 MMT for the first time since the end of last...
Farm Bill Moolah; Competitive Future; Kill with Kindness?; N-Ozone
Farm Bill Moolah The farm bill is ready to begin moving in a few short weeks with the only holdup being the lack of money desired by congressional farm lea...
Market Commentary
The overnight trading session for grains and the soy complex opened with the backdrop of the biggest single-day decline of the Dow ever. It was not the big...
Early February Odds and Ends
There are many subjects, big and small, of interest to agricultural markets and worthy of discussion as we head deeper into February, although grain and so...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Madness
The stock market fell nearly 1,200 points yesterday, the Dow’s largest decline in a single day and the biggest drop since 2011, a very volatile year...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Today was Turnaround Tuesday after commodity and equity markets closed deeply in the red yesterday. CBOT products found support in the overnight session an...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has revised its terms for government wheat purchases after suppliers were refusing to participate...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soy; South American Transport Problems; Ukrainian Soy; India Soymeal
Critical Week for Argentine Soybeans Weather forecasters are predicting substantial rains across Argentina’s driest areas on Friday and Saturday of t...
TPP Reality?; U.S.-China Trade War
TPP Reality? Aggies are trying to decipher the degree of seriousness behind President Trump’s announcement in Davos that he would reconsider joining...
It IS Dry
While still February, it’s very dry with the drought worsening across much of the U.S. as well as southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan (see the drought...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market was stable last week with some movement in February and March shipments, which is where Chinese demand is sho...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Action on RINs Reform and Tax Credit Key to Biodiesel Forecast
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), biodiesel production totaled 148 million gallons in November 2017, the same amount as in Oct...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets opened lower overnight, and they traded that way throughout the day session. A number of factors contributed to this trend...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has gained about $2.00. The FOB prices followed the rally of the U.S. and EU futures’ markets early in the week bu...
Trump Globalism; Auto Narcissism; Dual Quality Fight; Shutdown/Immigration
Trump Globalism U.S. President Donald Trump is repeatedly called a nationalist and a protectionist. Robert Manning at the Brent Scowcroft Center claims tha...
Market Commentary
The corn, soybean and wheat markets were lower overnight with the latter two suffering the greatest losses in moderate volume. That pattern of weakness did...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Policy Update: USTR’s Chief Ag Negotiator; Budget and Farm Bill; RFS Waiver
USTR’s Chief Ag Negotiator Nominee Moving toward Confirmation Yesterday Senator Jeff Flake (R-Arizona) announced that he had released his hold on the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
High Duty Reduces Edible Oil Imports Edible oil imports dropped in December 2017 following an increase in the duty the previous month, falling approximatel...
An Important Month for U.S. Farmers
February is important for U.S. farmers as it is the month that the initial prices for the federal crop revenue insurance programs are calculated. These als...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s corrective price action extended into the overnight session with soybeans leading the way, being down 7-8 cents. Wheat futures prices wer...
Dollar Strength; Serious Africa Development; Warsaw-Brussels Fight
Dollar Strength U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stirred the currency market last week by initially saying at Davos that a weaker U.S. dollar would be...
Hints of Changing Dynamics
Simplistic economics suggest that the value of any freely-traded commodity is ultimately determined by the balance between its supplies and demand. That is...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Cattle Herd Growing but Slowing
USDA released its semi-annual cattle inventory report yesterday. It showed the U.S. herd on 1 January 2018 was the largest in nine years at 94.4 million he...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Volatility returned to the markets today. After a benign overnight session, corn, soybeans, and wheat all headed lower on bearish export sales numbers. The...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 January 2018 There were no significant changes in domestic market trends. Prices for wheat (all grades) and feed barley contin...
SOTU Redux; France First; Inspection Speed
SOTU Redux President Trump used last night’s State of the Union address to reiterate his goal of fixing “decades of unfair trade deals,”...
Market Commentary
Janet Yellen’s final meeting as Fed chair ended today with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) deciding to leave the interest rate unchanged, wh...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grain futures corrected lower during the overnight session after a steady/mixed start. Farmer selling was active yesterday which reduced some buyer enthusi...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy China’s Central Government Announces 2018 Farm Subsidies Last week China’s central government published its 2018 farm and a...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trading saw wheat and corn prices move higher as soybeans hung around on either side of Monday’s closes. Although corn was the volum...
SOTU; Transatlantic Hurricane; Copper Contradiction; Scale; Tractors
SOTU Tonight Speculation about the content in an upcoming presidential State of the Union (SOTU) address is usually just that – much speculation, but...
2018 Energy Outlook
The ability to export crude oil, which was granted to U.S. producers in December 2015, is still a game changer in the energy markets. Global crude oil aver...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-up
Fund short-covering, worse-than-expected U.S. wheat conditions, and a hot, dry weather forecast for Argentina sent grains and oilseed futures sharply highe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS News reports concerning a possible ADM/Bunge merger have raised questions about the future of G3 Canada...
Wheat Rediscovered
Noncommercial managed funds have held a large short position in wheat futures, mainly Chicago (SRW), in what seems like forever. The fund long position in...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report this past Friday. The on-feed inventory as of 1 January was 11.58 million head or 108 percent of last...
Meat Tipping Point; Transatlantic Storms; NAFTA Headway
Meat Tipping Point Activist groups in Europe are rallying against meat imports from Mercosur just as Brussels tries to complete a trade agreement with part...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian soybean crop keeps rising or at least consolidating production. Trading houses are estimating a baseline of 112 MMT with upsi...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean markets were strong overnight on very good volume. Weather in Argentina has become the market’s focus, and there were some scattere...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
The Slowly Changing Corn Outlook
Adverse weather conditions in Argentina and parts of Brazil are starting to slowly change the dynamics of the corn market (or at least the world numbers)...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firmer because of the stronger Russian ruble, which has rallied more than 3 percent versus the USD in one month. Whil...
Donald at Davos; Wishful Weeding; Stonewall Yogurt
Donald at Davos President Donald Trump today became the first U.S. leader to address the World Economic Forum in nearly two decades. Most notably and in a...
USDA Issues Farm Bill Principles
WPI previously wrote about the Trump USDA’s plans to weigh in on the farm bill as well as the diminishing likelihood of that occurring with the delay...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Cattle on Feed
United States Cattle on Feed Up 8 Percent. The inventory included 7.34 million steers and steer calves, up 4 percent from the previous year. This group acc...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight. Soybean and soymeal futures then started today’s session easier following a disappointing weekly so...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Increased Corn Area; Prices Stable but High The 2017/18 rabi (summer crop) corn area, which will be harvested in March-April 2018, totaled 1.5739 million h...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Export Sales; Argentine Soy; WTO and Biodiesel…
Soy Export Sales Highlights Last week’s U.S. exports sales were not good for the soy complex. Net soybean export sales for 2017/18 totaled only 616,3...
Funds Still Not Covering Record Short Positions
When previously discussing what it might take to push the funds out of their record (or near-record) short positions in corn, wheat and soybean futures (se...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 427,200 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2017/2018 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week...
From TPP to CPTPP; Year-End Meat and Poultry Production
From TPP to CPTPP What started under the Obama administration as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), comprised of the U.S. and 11 other countries, will en...
Market Commentary
The upward thrust of grain and soy futures prices continued overnight as did the upsurge in trading volume. Also continuing was the downward trend of the U...
Farm Bill Fun and Games
The very first farm bill, the Agricultural Adjustment Act, was passed in 1933 as an early part of President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal approach in...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and oilseeds were higher in the overnight session, trying to extend yesterday’s gains. Trade volume was big with 15,000 March corn contracts t...
Davos Dirt; Handling the Truth
Davos Dirt Speaking to Bloomberg News this week at the World Economic Forum, Liu He, the top financial and economic adviser to President Xi Jinping, said t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 January 2018 The domestic market was influenced by the same trends of the previous week with average prices rising slightly in...
Market Commentary
Soybean and product prices moved lower overnight while grains climbed higher, reversing yesterday’s pattern of direction. The volume of trade was not...
No Food, No Jobs; No Workers, Poor Work; 85 Percent Isn’t Protectionism
No Food or Jobs USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue stuck with conventional conservativism in at least one of his “principles” for the next farm bill &...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and the soy complex were mixed in the overnight session with soy lower and grains firmer. The volume of overnight trade was good with 19,000 March c...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends 2017 Ag Output Up Despite Lagging Growth Rates Annual data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows the country’s t...
Trade Policy Confusion; Meat Confusion
Trade Policy Confusion Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi decried protectionism at the World Economic Forum today. In a speech widely perceived to be an a...
Ethanol Exports Likely to Grow
There is good news for ethanol exporters as Brazil may very well lift the newly established tariff-rate quota (TRQ) on ethanol imports, which was imposed b...
Market Commentary
The futures market pattern of firmer soybeans and weaker grains continued overnight in modest limited volume, but the truth is that soybean gains as well a...
Oilseed Highlights: Pakistan’s Problem with U.S. Soybeans; Voiding Intacta’s Brazilian Patent…
Cockleburs a Problem for U.S. Soybean Shipments to Pakistan While in Karachi this past weekend to speak at the third Pakistan Edible Oils Conference, it wa...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
U.S. Trade Policies and Agriculture
During the 2016 presidential campaign, candidate Donald Trump often complained about the large and growing U.S. trade deficit with China. It was, he assert...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The government is back in session today, which did not impress the grains markets. Overnight trade was mixed with grains lower and the soy complex gained o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s supply ministry has announced that the government’s wheat storage capacity will be...
Farming Propaganda; Legal Matters; Farm Policy Dichotomy
Farming Propaganda It may not just be foreign elections that Russia is trying to influence but foreign economies as well. While investigating the 2016 U.S...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Soybean seeding in Argentina is almost finished with 98 percent of the projected area (18 million hectares) covered and less than 400,00...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
The U.S. government did partially shut down at midnight (EST) Friday night, but Congress then reached an agreement today to extend government funding throu...
Bunge Merger Talks Again Highlight Industry Troubles
There were a number of stories circulating last Friday afternoon about how Bunge is (or might now be) the target of acquisition talks by ADM and perhaps ot...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
What Will USDA Do During the Government Shutdown?
Saturday, 20 January marked the one-year anniversary of President Trump’s inauguration. It also capped a year full of surprises with a government shu...
Cold Snap Impact on Agriculture
The recent record cold weather, especially in the South, will have some lasting impacts on agriculture throughout the new year. On a positive note, a likel...
Chocolate Ban; Folly of Youth; Forex Risk; North Korea, USG Shutdown
Chocolate Ban One of the reasons European Parliamentarians (EPs) gave for prohibiting the use of palm oil in biodiesel was to stop deforestation. Now a rep...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. USDA’s e...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Market Commentary
Markets were all higher overnight, led by the soy complex. Soybeans extended those gains to double-digits in the first 30-45 minutes of today’s sessi...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Soybean and soymeal futures finished the week strong despite last week’s relatively bearish USDA numbers. Ongoing dry weather across much of Argentin...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Continue to Tumble Sugarcane processors (mills) should pay farmers for their stocks within two weeks of the harvest/purchase, and the governme...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
PPP; China Cheat; Forget Availability
Plant Protein Protectionism In a “Europe First” move, the EU has committed to creating an “EU Protein Plan” by the end of 2018. The...
More Livestock Eating Less; Entertainment “Meats” Politics
More Livestock Eating Less USDA’s feed outlook report estimates grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) will total 99 million in 2017/18, up from 98.3 m...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
DDGS Exports and Prices to Rise in 2018
U.S. DDGS exports could expand 28 percent in 2018 along with a moderate increase in prices. Favorable changes in geopolitics, including China’s reduc...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and wheat continued yesterday’s higher pricing trend, while corn retreated toward the safety of $3.50 (again). Soymeal was higher for the fo...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Early Brazilian Soybean Harvests Squeezing U.S. Prime Marketing Season
The U.S. has long been the world’s dominant supplier of soybeans for the period of 1 October-31 March. South America normally fulfills that role duri...
Appointment Hostages; Misinformed; Crop Apartheid; Mass Migration
Appointment Hostages The number of presidential nominees being held hostage in the U.S. Senate is notable for several reasons: Placing a hold on an appoin...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 January 2018 Market activity was still slow, but average prices grew slightly in both RUB and USD expression due to strengtheni...
Summary of Future
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
Today’s trade was essentially a reversal of recent trends with wheat higher, soybeans flat and corn rising above $3.50/bushel. The cattle complex was...