Note: The Closing Bell Wrap-Up will be on vacation Wednesday and Thursday this week, but will return next week. Poor crop condition ratings in Kansas...
Articles
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has announced that the local wheat purchase price will be released in March, approximately one mo...
Rejet de la Modernité; Fake Food News; Ethanol “Fix"
Rejet de la Modernité French President Emmanuel Macron is preparing his nation’s farmers for change, but it isn’t clear that his plan is...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
MERCOSUR Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Argentina received poor rains the past week and crop estimates keep dropping. The latest forecast fell another 3 MMT to 46.5, maki...
Market Commentary
General Comments Wheat, corn and soybean markets were higher overnight with good trading volume. Wheat and soybeans were the leaders and that fact co...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remains well supported due to increasing demand from the major destinations in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia. T...
Section 199A Tax Glitch Deepens
WPI has written several times about the unintended consequences of Section 199A in the recently passed U.S. tax reform bill, including Dave Juday’s a...
February Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report Friday, which showed the total number of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of more than 1,000 as of...
China Won’t Eat American; Canada NAFTA Hearing; Technology, Productivity and Inequality
China Won’t Eat American Senior USDA agricultural attaché Michael Ward lamented Chinese barriers to U.S. food exports at today’s a...
Getting Partisan on Pass-Through
Perhaps it was inevitable given the partisan nature of the tax reform debate and passage, but now the debate surrounding the biggest ag-related issue in th...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on&...
Fail-Safe USDA Numbers
USDA released an initial glimpse at of its MY 2018/19 U.S. supply and demand estimates early this morning, which were fail-safe across the board. They caus...
Market Commentary
Markets were slightly higher overnight in relatively light trading volume. Corn was a penny higher, and soybeans were up 3-4 cents as were KC and Chicago w...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. USDA’s e...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Prices Up, but DDGS Not Available as Alternative The Soybean Oil Processors Association (SOPA) has again trimmed its estimate for India’s 201...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Cynical Thoughts; Cotton Collision; ISDS Confusion
Cynical Thoughts French NGO Générations Future has copied a page from American NGO Environmental Working Group (EWG) and erroneously declared...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy complex futures had low volume and was quiet without much price movement. Soybeans were a couple of cents lower, but corn...
Cattle on Feed Estimates
USDA’s Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed to be 108.5 per...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Soy Crop and Seed Issue; U.S. Biodiesel Tariffs; Canadian Plantings; Parana Harvest
Rosario Exchange Sharply Reduces Argentine Soybean Estimate Yesterday the Rosario Grain Exchange reduced its estimate of the Argentine soybean crop from 52...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Profile of American Farms
Each year USDA/NASS conducts a Farms and Land in Farms survey regarding economic demographics. The results are usually released in time for USDA’s an...
Brexit Strangle; TPP Hope; Unnatural Claim; Your Trees
Brexit Strangle UK Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Michael Gove told the National Farmers Union that environmental and animal we...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s grain and soy futures markets sold off well below the highs reached earlier in the session and closed unenthusiastically with a weak tone...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 February 2018 Domestic grain prices continued to rise due to growing export prices, although strengthening of the ruble somewh...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
China In-Country Analysis
Cultural 2018 Lunar New Year Ushers in the Year the Dog 16 February 2018 was the first day of the Chinese New Year, which also represents the commencement...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Cattle futures closed sharply lower today on falling demand while the wheat markets continued to give back recent gains as well. Corn was slightly higher w...
Market Commentary
Over the long weekend, rainfall in Argentina was limited to portions of Buenos Aires as the rest of the main crop areas remaining dry. That plus a forecast...
Ethanol: USDA versus EIA
USDA released its baseline projections for 2018-2027 last week on the same day that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its Annual Ener...
Are Soybeans Bullish or Bearish?
It may be that we spend too much time discussing the current soy complex. After all, there are currently some market-interesting developments in corn and w...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy Crop; Indonesia’s Soybean Restrictions; Export Inspections
Forecasts for Brazil’s Soybean Crop Keep Increasing If the analysts in Brazil are correct, the soybean crop there will be huge this year. Yesterday S...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
It wasn’t exactly “turnaround Tuesday” since the markets were closed yesterday, but it sure felt like it was. Wheat futures fell hard on...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Turkey’s total grain purchases from Russia are reported to have increased from 1.66 MMT in 2016/1...
Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation
Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs o...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectiv...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was hi...
Undermining 232 Rationale; Trump View Vindicated; MAAlicious
Undermining 232 Rationale The U.S. Commerce Department announced the results of its Section 232 investigation into imports of aluminum and steel. It was fo...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Heitkamp versus Cramer: It’s On!
A little “water cooler” office conversation (albeit conducted electronically) at WPI this week centered on handicapping the North Dakota Senate...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Market Commentary
Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. A...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The annual USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum will take place next week (22-23 February) in Washington, DC. USDA will issue preliminary unofficial estimates o...
Origin Labeling Loser; War of Words; Taxes and Budgets
Origin Labeling Loser The U.S. beef industry feels embattled. After years of contending with health risk warnings about its product, marketers of plant pro...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets traded rather quietly overnight with prices holding mostly steady to mildly firmer. However, prices for soybeans and wheat began to t...
Fundamental Winds of Change
USDA made several changes a week ago to its supply/demand estimates for the U.S. and the world that were unusual for a February WASDE. With South American...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Weather; Export Sales; Brazil’s Soy Losses, NOPA Crush Report
Little Rain in Dry Argentine Areas until March Two weather forecasters in Argentina have told Reuters that they do not expect any break in the drought impa...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
If this was NPR’s Marketplace, we’d be playing the happy music right now. CBOT grains and oilseeds, along with most CME livestock futures, clos...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Aussie Beef; U.S. Cattle; Moratorium on Iowa Livestock Sought
Aussie Beef Back on the Global Market Australia’s beef exports are making a comeback, up 19.7 percent last month over January 2017, and they could be...
Export Sales
This week’s Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market’s likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export p...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Market Commentary
The overnight session found prices trading mostly lower, which was in line with selling late Tuesday that took prices down to closes that were mostly well...
TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?
TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 February 2018 A moderate upward trend continued in the domestic grain market (in RUB expression) due to growing export prices an...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
It was a mixed day at the CBOT with wheat lower, corn higher, and the entire soy complex (yes, including soyoil) higher. Trading, however, lacked the vigor...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course and Falls Below 1 MMT Pre-Lunar New Year holiday demand pushed wholesale soymeal prices slightly higher as of 2...
Four Reasons to be Bearish Soybeans
Yesterday soybean contracts experienced a momentary setback because of China's cancellation of U.S. soybeans and a weak export inspection number. Traders w...
Historical Inequality; Fighting Fear; Not Innovative; Spinning Wheels
Historical Inequality This week President Trump resurrected his contention that a “reciprocal tax” should be imposed that equalizes the tariffs...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Rains Disappoint; Soy Sales Cancellations; Egypt’s Sunflower Oil Purchase
Argentine Rains Disappoint The rains that fell last Friday and Saturday in Argentina were far too little and not widespread enough to help the soybean crop...
Market Commentary
Trading during the overnight session turned much quieter in terms of price action and volume versus Sunday night and Monday. Prices traded both sides of ye...
Impact of Small Refinery Exemptions on the RFS
In August 2017, the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that the EPA was too strict in granting exemptions for small refineries under the Re...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Soybeans were the highlight of the CBOT/CME sessions today, leading the way higher amid a sea of otherwise red prices. Corn and wheat futures were lower on...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat sales are said to have reached about 750,000 MT at FOB prices of $190-195 /MT in...
Soy Products and the Argentine Drought
Argentina’s La Nina-related drought has increasingly grabbed market headlines since late December. The rains that had been predicted for that country...
Rural Infrastructure; Chinese Countryside; EU Identity Politics; Ag Budget
Rural Infrastructure President Trump’s newly announced infrastructure plan gives some priority to rural areas by making them an early beneficiary of...
A Look at "An American Budget"
President Donald Trump has been labeled – by friends and foes alike – as a marketing and branding wizard. He hasn’t lost that touch movin...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Market Commentary
The markets started with good gains in the Sunday evening session, led by double-digit increases in soybeans on the heels of a sharp rally in soymeal futur...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Tax Glitch Sill Not Fixed
One of the late changes to the recently passed U.S. tax reform bill created some significant, unintended consequences that gave farmers a huge tax break an...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics On 9 February, a portion of the grain truck drivers’ union called for a strike across Argentina that is also preventing those who are...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is slightly firmer. The Russian 12.5 pro is offered at $200/MT FOB, which is about $2/MT higher than last Monday despite...
Details on the Continuing Resolution
After a brief midnight shutdown, Congress approved yet another modified stopgap budget package in the early hours of this morning. This is the fifth contin...
Trump Triangulates, Canada’s Soft Underbelly
Trump Triangulates As one U.S. trade policy official described the situation, it is Alice in Wonderland, where up is down and small is big – a real f...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Market Commentary
The general chaos that has plagued the U.S. financial markets this week is having a negative spillover impact on more markets. Crude oil dropped more than...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Duties on Sugar and Chickpea Imports Have Immediate Effect To keep a check on prices, the government of India (GOI) has raised the duty on sugar fro...
Yield Risks?
The general attitude of the markets is that the world is “awash” in everything. It’s tough to argue that statement if looking at the abso...
Market Commentary
As the markets waited for USDA’s February WASDE at noon (EST) today, overnight trading volume declined rather sharply from its heavy level earlier th...
The February WASDE
The February WASDE typically generates few surprises. In that sense, today’s report stands out as containing some changes that exceeded expectations...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Oilseed Highlights: USDA Forecast Revisions; Brazil’s Weather Woes; Export Sales
USDA Cuts Forecast for U.S. Soybean Exports Again and Revises Other Estimates Today USDA unsurprisingly further reduced its forecast for U.S. soybean expor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
USDA surprised the markets today with significant changes to its U.S. commodity balance sheets. After the initial surprise, however, market settled down an...
WASDE Soyoil
Soybean oil prices are forecast at 31 to 34 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. Global oilseed crush for 2017/18 is projected at 487.5...
WASDE Soymeal
Soybean meal prices are projected at $305 to $335 per short ton, up $5 at the midpoint. Global oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected...
Scale in Africa; Theory versus History; Glyphosate Bubbling; Export Restriction
Scale Needed in Africa The Overseas Development Institute (ODI), a research group funded by governments, international organizations and development groups...
WASDE Soybeans
2017/18 U.S. soybean outlook is for reduced exports and increased ending stocks. Soybean exports for 2017/18 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, down 6...
WASDE Corn
Global corn production is lowered 2.8 million tons largely reflecting reductions for Argentina and Ukraine. For Argentina, persistent heat and dryness...
WASDE Wheat
Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 20 million bushels as higher food use is more than offset by lower exports, while export fore...
Export Sales
This week’s Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market’s likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export p...
Spending Bill Comes with Key Changes for Dairy, Livestock and Farm Bill
Congress has come up with a spending package to avoid a government shutdown. If passed, the spending blueprint would fund the government for two years, tak...
Addressing China’s Mercantilism; Rush to Work Less
Addressing China’s Mercantilism U.S. sorghum prices plummeted 25 percent on word that China has used imports of this commodity from the U.S. as a ret...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures opened the overnight session mostly stronger on follow-up momentum and the bullish technical signals generated by Tuesday’s pri...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January-2 February 2018 There was an upward trend in prices for all grains as a saturated domestic market continued reacting to t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Wheat led the way higher in today’s trading with corn rising slightly and soybeans falling in choppy trading. The stage for today’s wheat rally...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Rises Above 1 MMT China’s nationwide estimated soybean inventory surpassed 1 MMT for the first time since the end of last...
Farm Bill Moolah; Competitive Future; Kill with Kindness?; N-Ozone
Farm Bill Moolah The farm bill is ready to begin moving in a few short weeks with the only holdup being the lack of money desired by congressional farm lea...
Market Commentary
The overnight trading session for grains and the soy complex opened with the backdrop of the biggest single-day decline of the Dow ever. It was not the big...
Early February Odds and Ends
There are many subjects, big and small, of interest to agricultural markets and worthy of discussion as we head deeper into February, although grain and so...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Madness
The stock market fell nearly 1,200 points yesterday, the Dow’s largest decline in a single day and the biggest drop since 2011, a very volatile year...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Today was Turnaround Tuesday after commodity and equity markets closed deeply in the red yesterday. CBOT products found support in the overnight session an...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has revised its terms for government wheat purchases after suppliers were refusing to participate...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soy; South American Transport Problems; Ukrainian Soy; India Soymeal
Critical Week for Argentine Soybeans Weather forecasters are predicting substantial rains across Argentina’s driest areas on Friday and Saturday of t...
TPP Reality?; U.S.-China Trade War
TPP Reality? Aggies are trying to decipher the degree of seriousness behind President Trump’s announcement in Davos that he would reconsider joining...
It IS Dry
While still February, it’s very dry with the drought worsening across much of the U.S. as well as southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan (see the drought...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market was stable last week with some movement in February and March shipments, which is where Chinese demand is sho...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Action on RINs Reform and Tax Credit Key to Biodiesel Forecast
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), biodiesel production totaled 148 million gallons in November 2017, the same amount as in Oct...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets opened lower overnight, and they traded that way throughout the day session. A number of factors contributed to this trend...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has gained about $2.00. The FOB prices followed the rally of the U.S. and EU futures’ markets early in the week bu...
Trump Globalism; Auto Narcissism; Dual Quality Fight; Shutdown/Immigration
Trump Globalism U.S. President Donald Trump is repeatedly called a nationalist and a protectionist. Robert Manning at the Brent Scowcroft Center claims tha...
Market Commentary
The corn, soybean and wheat markets were lower overnight with the latter two suffering the greatest losses in moderate volume. That pattern of weakness did...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Policy Update: USTR’s Chief Ag Negotiator; Budget and Farm Bill; RFS Waiver
USTR’s Chief Ag Negotiator Nominee Moving toward Confirmation Yesterday Senator Jeff Flake (R-Arizona) announced that he had released his hold on the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
High Duty Reduces Edible Oil Imports Edible oil imports dropped in December 2017 following an increase in the duty the previous month, falling approximatel...
An Important Month for U.S. Farmers
February is important for U.S. farmers as it is the month that the initial prices for the federal crop revenue insurance programs are calculated. These als...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s corrective price action extended into the overnight session with soybeans leading the way, being down 7-8 cents. Wheat futures prices wer...
Dollar Strength; Serious Africa Development; Warsaw-Brussels Fight
Dollar Strength U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stirred the currency market last week by initially saying at Davos that a weaker U.S. dollar would be...
Hints of Changing Dynamics
Simplistic economics suggest that the value of any freely-traded commodity is ultimately determined by the balance between its supplies and demand. That is...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Cattle Herd Growing but Slowing
USDA released its semi-annual cattle inventory report yesterday. It showed the U.S. herd on 1 January 2018 was the largest in nine years at 94.4 million he...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Volatility returned to the markets today. After a benign overnight session, corn, soybeans, and wheat all headed lower on bearish export sales numbers. The...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 January 2018 There were no significant changes in domestic market trends. Prices for wheat (all grades) and feed barley contin...
SOTU Redux; France First; Inspection Speed
SOTU Redux President Trump used last night’s State of the Union address to reiterate his goal of fixing “decades of unfair trade deals,”...
Market Commentary
Janet Yellen’s final meeting as Fed chair ended today with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) deciding to leave the interest rate unchanged, wh...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grain futures corrected lower during the overnight session after a steady/mixed start. Farmer selling was active yesterday which reduced some buyer enthusi...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy China’s Central Government Announces 2018 Farm Subsidies Last week China’s central government published its 2018 farm and a...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trading saw wheat and corn prices move higher as soybeans hung around on either side of Monday’s closes. Although corn was the volum...
SOTU; Transatlantic Hurricane; Copper Contradiction; Scale; Tractors
SOTU Tonight Speculation about the content in an upcoming presidential State of the Union (SOTU) address is usually just that – much speculation, but...
2018 Energy Outlook
The ability to export crude oil, which was granted to U.S. producers in December 2015, is still a game changer in the energy markets. Global crude oil aver...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-up
Fund short-covering, worse-than-expected U.S. wheat conditions, and a hot, dry weather forecast for Argentina sent grains and oilseed futures sharply highe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS News reports concerning a possible ADM/Bunge merger have raised questions about the future of G3 Canada...
Wheat Rediscovered
Noncommercial managed funds have held a large short position in wheat futures, mainly Chicago (SRW), in what seems like forever. The fund long position in...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report this past Friday. The on-feed inventory as of 1 January was 11.58 million head or 108 percent of last...
Meat Tipping Point; Transatlantic Storms; NAFTA Headway
Meat Tipping Point Activist groups in Europe are rallying against meat imports from Mercosur just as Brussels tries to complete a trade agreement with part...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian soybean crop keeps rising or at least consolidating production. Trading houses are estimating a baseline of 112 MMT with upsi...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean markets were strong overnight on very good volume. Weather in Argentina has become the market’s focus, and there were some scattere...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
The Slowly Changing Corn Outlook
Adverse weather conditions in Argentina and parts of Brazil are starting to slowly change the dynamics of the corn market (or at least the world numbers)...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firmer because of the stronger Russian ruble, which has rallied more than 3 percent versus the USD in one month. Whil...
Donald at Davos; Wishful Weeding; Stonewall Yogurt
Donald at Davos President Donald Trump today became the first U.S. leader to address the World Economic Forum in nearly two decades. Most notably and in a...
USDA Issues Farm Bill Principles
WPI previously wrote about the Trump USDA’s plans to weigh in on the farm bill as well as the diminishing likelihood of that occurring with the delay...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Cattle on Feed
United States Cattle on Feed Up 8 Percent. The inventory included 7.34 million steers and steer calves, up 4 percent from the previous year. This group acc...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight. Soybean and soymeal futures then started today’s session easier following a disappointing weekly so...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Increased Corn Area; Prices Stable but High The 2017/18 rabi (summer crop) corn area, which will be harvested in March-April 2018, totaled 1.5739 million h...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Export Sales; Argentine Soy; WTO and Biodiesel…
Soy Export Sales Highlights Last week’s U.S. exports sales were not good for the soy complex. Net soybean export sales for 2017/18 totaled only 616,3...
Funds Still Not Covering Record Short Positions
When previously discussing what it might take to push the funds out of their record (or near-record) short positions in corn, wheat and soybean futures (se...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 427,200 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2017/2018 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week...
From TPP to CPTPP; Year-End Meat and Poultry Production
From TPP to CPTPP What started under the Obama administration as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), comprised of the U.S. and 11 other countries, will en...
Market Commentary
The upward thrust of grain and soy futures prices continued overnight as did the upsurge in trading volume. Also continuing was the downward trend of the U...
Farm Bill Fun and Games
The very first farm bill, the Agricultural Adjustment Act, was passed in 1933 as an early part of President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal approach in...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and oilseeds were higher in the overnight session, trying to extend yesterday’s gains. Trade volume was big with 15,000 March corn contracts t...
Davos Dirt; Handling the Truth
Davos Dirt Speaking to Bloomberg News this week at the World Economic Forum, Liu He, the top financial and economic adviser to President Xi Jinping, said t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 January 2018 The domestic market was influenced by the same trends of the previous week with average prices rising slightly in...
Market Commentary
Soybean and product prices moved lower overnight while grains climbed higher, reversing yesterday’s pattern of direction. The volume of trade was not...
No Food, No Jobs; No Workers, Poor Work; 85 Percent Isn’t Protectionism
No Food or Jobs USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue stuck with conventional conservativism in at least one of his “principles” for the next farm bill &...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and the soy complex were mixed in the overnight session with soy lower and grains firmer. The volume of overnight trade was good with 19,000 March c...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends 2017 Ag Output Up Despite Lagging Growth Rates Annual data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows the country’s t...
Trade Policy Confusion; Meat Confusion
Trade Policy Confusion Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi decried protectionism at the World Economic Forum today. In a speech widely perceived to be an a...
Ethanol Exports Likely to Grow
There is good news for ethanol exporters as Brazil may very well lift the newly established tariff-rate quota (TRQ) on ethanol imports, which was imposed b...
Market Commentary
The futures market pattern of firmer soybeans and weaker grains continued overnight in modest limited volume, but the truth is that soybean gains as well a...
Oilseed Highlights: Pakistan’s Problem with U.S. Soybeans; Voiding Intacta’s Brazilian Patent…
Cockleburs a Problem for U.S. Soybean Shipments to Pakistan While in Karachi this past weekend to speak at the third Pakistan Edible Oils Conference, it wa...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
U.S. Trade Policies and Agriculture
During the 2016 presidential campaign, candidate Donald Trump often complained about the large and growing U.S. trade deficit with China. It was, he assert...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The government is back in session today, which did not impress the grains markets. Overnight trade was mixed with grains lower and the soy complex gained o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s supply ministry has announced that the government’s wheat storage capacity will be...
Farming Propaganda; Legal Matters; Farm Policy Dichotomy
Farming Propaganda It may not just be foreign elections that Russia is trying to influence but foreign economies as well. While investigating the 2016 U.S...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Soybean seeding in Argentina is almost finished with 98 percent of the projected area (18 million hectares) covered and less than 400,00...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
The U.S. government did partially shut down at midnight (EST) Friday night, but Congress then reached an agreement today to extend government funding throu...
Bunge Merger Talks Again Highlight Industry Troubles
There were a number of stories circulating last Friday afternoon about how Bunge is (or might now be) the target of acquisition talks by ADM and perhaps ot...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
What Will USDA Do During the Government Shutdown?
Saturday, 20 January marked the one-year anniversary of President Trump’s inauguration. It also capped a year full of surprises with a government shu...
Cold Snap Impact on Agriculture
The recent record cold weather, especially in the South, will have some lasting impacts on agriculture throughout the new year. On a positive note, a likel...
Chocolate Ban; Folly of Youth; Forex Risk; North Korea, USG Shutdown
Chocolate Ban One of the reasons European Parliamentarians (EPs) gave for prohibiting the use of palm oil in biodiesel was to stop deforestation. Now a rep...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. USDA’s e...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Market Commentary
Markets were all higher overnight, led by the soy complex. Soybeans extended those gains to double-digits in the first 30-45 minutes of today’s sessi...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Soybean and soymeal futures finished the week strong despite last week’s relatively bearish USDA numbers. Ongoing dry weather across much of Argentin...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Continue to Tumble Sugarcane processors (mills) should pay farmers for their stocks within two weeks of the harvest/purchase, and the governme...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
PPP; China Cheat; Forget Availability
Plant Protein Protectionism In a “Europe First” move, the EU has committed to creating an “EU Protein Plan” by the end of 2018. The...
More Livestock Eating Less; Entertainment “Meats” Politics
More Livestock Eating Less USDA’s feed outlook report estimates grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) will total 99 million in 2017/18, up from 98.3 m...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
DDGS Exports and Prices to Rise in 2018
U.S. DDGS exports could expand 28 percent in 2018 along with a moderate increase in prices. Favorable changes in geopolitics, including China’s reduc...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and wheat continued yesterday’s higher pricing trend, while corn retreated toward the safety of $3.50 (again). Soymeal was higher for the fo...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Early Brazilian Soybean Harvests Squeezing U.S. Prime Marketing Season
The U.S. has long been the world’s dominant supplier of soybeans for the period of 1 October-31 March. South America normally fulfills that role duri...
Appointment Hostages; Misinformed; Crop Apartheid; Mass Migration
Appointment Hostages The number of presidential nominees being held hostage in the U.S. Senate is notable for several reasons: Placing a hold on an appoin...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 January 2018 Market activity was still slow, but average prices grew slightly in both RUB and USD expression due to strengtheni...
Summary of Future
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
Today’s trade was essentially a reversal of recent trends with wheat higher, soybeans flat and corn rising above $3.50/bushel. The cattle complex was...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Retreats Breaking four consecutive weeks of increases, China’s estimated soymeal inventory fell to 883,700 MT as of 5 Janu...
Standard-Less Identity; Heritage Milk; On Ice; India Pipe Dream
Standard-Less Identity The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued a new strategic roadmap that indicates it will revisit the standards of identity for...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading of CME grain and soy futures was more active than has been the case for much of the last several weeks. Due to the Monday holiday in the...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Rain in Argentina; Brazilian Soybeans; NOPA Soy Crush; WASDE
Weekend Rains Helped Some Areas in Argentina Weekend rains in Argentina did bring relief to some areas, but more widespread coverage will be needed soon in...
What We Think We Know
The awaited reports on 2018 quarterly stocks and winter wheat acreage along with the January 2018 WASDE have come and gone. Given the broad spectrum of dat...
Budget, Farm Bill and Crop Insurance: Timeline and Issues
It was the hope of most aggies late last year that the farm bill would be passed out of the House Agriculture Committee this month with floor time schedule...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Traders returned from the holiday weekend with renewed enthusiasm for selling wheat, buying soybeans, and not doing anything with corn. The livestock compl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The first shipment of 2,200 MT of Indian wheat has arrived in Kabul, Afghanistan via Iran’s Chaba...
SOE Solution: Transparency
The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office just released a list of so-called notorious markets where counterfeit and pirated goods are sold. Notably, man...
Martin Luther King Day
Monday, 15 January is a U.S. holiday, and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published the following day &n...
Co-Op Tax Deduction Fix Coming
Gary Blumenthal and Bob Kohlmeyer both discussed the history of co-ops and the changes in their tax treatment under the recent tax reform bill this week. F...
Another Curve in the USDA January Reports
Almost everyone expected bearish corn and soybean numbers in today’s series of USDA reports, and that is what they were for the most part. If there w...
Market Commentary
As expected, markets were all basically unchanged overnight in light trading volume ahead of today’s series of major USDA reports. That calm tone the...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Arbitrage White; Export Spending; Outsourced Sustainability; Offal Trend
Arbitrage White Members of Mexico’s National Tortilla Council were reportedly (Reuters) threatening to raise the price of their primary product, a st...
WASDE Soyoil
U.S. soyoil stocks declined from 1,616 million lbs in December 2017 to 1,536 million lbs in January 2018. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 111...
WASDE Soymeal
"Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate.... Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million...
WASDE Soybeans
"Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million tons, up 0.5 million. Soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to 348.6 million on gain...
WASDE Corn
"This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower feed and residual use, and gr...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Bumper Wheat Crop Expected, but Imports Still Cheaper Available records indicate the area under wheat in 2017/18 totals 28.3 million hectares, down about 4...
WASDE Wheat
"Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised 29 million bushels on increased supplies and decreased use. Seed use is lowered 4 million bush...
Government Skewing; BPA Reversal; Conceivably Paris/NAFTA; AgTech Invest
Government Skewing The Indian government proclaims food insecurity and demands the right to build a domestic food stockpiling mechanism. At the same time,...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Brazilian and Argentine Soy Crops; Ukrainian Rapeseed
Soy Export Sales Better Last Week Exporters of U.S. soybeans and soymeal had better success making new sales in the week ending 4 January. Net sales of soy...
Market Commentary
On this last full day of trading ahead of the release of USDA’s various reports at noon (EST) on Friday, markets were about as quiet as one might exp...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Tax Laws and Agricultural Coops
When we entered the grain business right out of college in the mid-1950s, there was a considerable level of antipathy and distrust between agricultural coo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are presented along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Lean hog futures continued their beatdown today while feeder cattle were similarly lower. Live cattle futures managed an unconvincing higher close but rema...
Record Red Meat Exports; 2018 Outlook
Record Red Meat Exports USDA released the November red meat export statistics this week, which showed pork exports reached their highest monthly total on r...
Export Sales
This week’s Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market’s likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export p...
Fixing the Coop Edge
Under the new 199A deduction, farmers can sell their production to a coop and take a tax deduction for net earnings at up to 20 percent of the gross value...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 December 2017-10 January 2018 Market Trends Market activity was slow with insignificant changes in prices. Key grain prices...
Cooperative Evolution; Safety in Numbers; How Sweet?; CAP Cuts; Banning Competitors
Cooperative Evolution Farmer cooperatives in the U.S. were historically conflicted between serving their farmer members and operating as competitive busine...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets are well into the waiting game for Friday’s USDA reports, and this shows up in the form of light volume and limited price actio...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Ends 2017 With Fourth Straight Weekly Increase China’s nationwide estimated soymeal inventory continued to rise for four s...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The CME’s livestock products turned the board red today with sharp losses in the cattle complex and a weaker tone to hog futures. CBOT grains were mi...
Quarterly Stocks Preview
The combined release of USDA’s final yield/production estimates for the U.S. corn and soybean crops, the updated supply/demand estimates in the Janua...
Market Commentary
Today’s grain and soy futures markets were a sharp contrast to Monday’s with a substantially lower volume of trade. Interestingly, open interes...
Trade “Blowback?”; Taxes, Geopolitical Risk; 353 and Raw
Trade “Blowback?” The Trump administration is about to make decisions on import protection for several industrial products (steel, solar panels...
Trump Kicks Off Mid-Term Election Cycle at AFBF Convention
President Trump spoke to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) yesterday during the group’s annual convention in Nashville, Tennessee. He took c...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Oilseed Highlights: South American Soy Updates; Minnesota Soybeans; Indian Soymeal
Rains Impacting South American Soy Crops Farmers in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso are beginning to harvest early-maturing soybeans, but almost daily r...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and oilseeds are steady/mixed amid a day of mostly higher markets. The S&P 500 is up 8.26 points as of this writing while the Dow is up 128 poin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt seems to have finally settled the ergot problem that has plagued the wheat import business for se...
Trump Tends to Agriculture
Despite the concerns he brings to the U.S. agriculture sector on the issue of trade generally and NAFTA specifically, President Donald Trump was warmly rec...
Funds Hold All the Big Marbles
Funds have entered the New Year holding record-large short positions in corn and wheat futures, and they have also turned their long soybean position into...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Trends Strong demand remains in the spot soybean market as Chinese buyers seem to have realized they need supplies immediately, a developme...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week slightly easier Sunday evening on very limited trading volume with Minneapolis March at just 200 contracts. Meanwhile, March corn...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Commodity Year in Review and 2018 Outlook
The first half of 2017 was mostly neutral for commodities except for a second-quarter rally for livestock and a decidedly bearish trend for energy. By the...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market continued to remain about unchanged last week. Russia and Ukraine will return from their New Year and local Christmas ho...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportuniti...
Farm Policy Going to Pot
The biggest crop-related issue today is not what might happen in the upcoming farm bill; rather, it is what occurred yesterday at the Department of Justice...
Regulated Commodity; Foodtopia
Regulated Commodity The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it will hold hearings at the end of the month to examine issues related...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed in the Thursday night session, and that’s pretty much how they ended the week. Corn didn’t do anything today, while soymeal...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets along with USDA...
Soybeans Rule the Northern Plains in 2018
The North Dakota State University (NDSU) extension service recently released its initial crop budget worksheets for 2018. It breaks the state of North Dako...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Supplies Keeping Sugar Prices in Check India’s sugar production reached 10.3 MMT as of 31 December 2017, a 25.36 percent increase from the tot...
Raw Water Stupidity
The New York Times identified a trend that would be the hoot of the New Year if it were not so deadly – raw water. It notes consumers drinking unfilt...
Anti-Fat Message; Digital Media and Checkoffs
New Year’s Anti-Fat Message A panel of experts, pickd by U.S. News and World Report, rated the ketogenic diet as tied for worst option on its list of...
Market Commentary
CME grain and soy complex futures traded both sides early during the overnight session, but they gradually drifted slightly lower as trading volume decline...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
A Few Thoughts Looking Ahead
USDA’s array of January reports will be released on 12 January. They will include: the last estimates of the average yields and production for the 20...
Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Rust; Argentine Weather and Soy Export Taxes; Monsanto
Growing Soybean Rust Problem in Parana Asian soybean rust can be a devastating pathogen if not adequately controlled, and agronomists in Brazil recommend t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Good afternoon from a very chilly Washington, D.C. The ‘bomb cyclone’ is hitting the northeast U.S. with wind, snow, and plenty of cold. Fortun...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia: Grain Export Update According to data provided by the Federal Customs Service of Russia, 26.595 MMT of grain were exported as of 27 December and fr...
Wrong Court; Full Transparency; End Wheat Subsidies; Meat and Optimism
Wrong Court The EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement will now start hurting U.S. exporters, and the next ding will come when the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) s...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trading started out rather slowly, but they then accelerated both in terms of volume and upward price movement during the early morning h...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Surprisingly, wheat led the commodity complex higher today with soybeans a reluctant follower and corn futures unwilling to touch $3.55/bushel. U.S. stocks...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Xi’s Policies Promise New Future for Small Farmers With market data updates slow to materialize because of the New Year’s holiday, this...
2018 Congressional To-Do List
The second session of the 115th Congress will convene tomorrow, the start of a very busy schedule for the year. President Trump, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R...
Millennial Challenge
Research by USDA/Economic Research Service (ERS) economists Annemarie Kuhns and Michelle Saksena reveals the contradictions and challenges posed to the foo...
Market Commentary
With the closure yesterday and overnight because of New Year’s Day, CME grain futures markets opened for the first post-holiday trading session at 9:...
Straws in the Wind
In 2017, U.S. corn and soybean growers experienced unexpectedly large yields, but the benefits of that were largely offset by very low crop prices. Winter...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Drought; Brazil’s Soy Exports; U.S. Soy Crush
Drought Continues in Parts of Argentina Relatively little rainfall was received this past weekend over Argentina’s soybean and corn growing areas, es...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Good afternoon and Happy New Year! It’s been a generally upbeat day on both Wall Street and West Jackson street in Chicago with U.S. equities and ag...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s government has announced that the official customs exchange rate will remain at the current level of 16 EG...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
CBO Proposes Crop Insurance Spending Cuts
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a report, “Options to Reduce Budgetary Costs of the Federal Crop Insurance Program,” on 22 Decembe...
Happy New Year from WPI
The WPI team extends best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and Happy New Year. Please note that our next report will be issued 2 January...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
The Possible U.S. Year Ahead
Making prognostications about the year ahead has always been risky business, but predictions about the future have become a great deal more suspect followi...
Market Commentary
Markets ended the year mixed on extremely light volume. Corn and wheat futures were 1-2 cents lower much of today’s session, and soybeans traded both...
Follow the Money
This year ends with a peek at the latest numbers from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The chart below shows the net reported positions...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Prices on the Rise Demand for soymeal and soyoil is robust, but the soybean supply is limited and slow. The government of India’s (GOI&...
A Review of USDA’s Hogs and Pigs/Cattle on Feed Reports
Hogs and Pigs Report USDA released this quarterly report last Friday, which was previewed here the previous day (see Ag Perspectives, 21 December). The tot...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were mixed as last evening’s trading began, but they soon drifted lower with soybeans and soymeal taking the lead in typ...
Things of Interest from 2017
In the closing days of the year, it is standard procedure for commentators to put forth their lists of the best, worst or most important items of the past...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Else...
2018 Trade Policy
Donald Trump upended conventional trade policy in 2017, but there are critical deadlines in 2018 that will reveal the wisdom or calamity of his ways. While...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
More on New Chinese FM Standard for Soybeans
More information is now available regarding China’s new foreign material (FM) standard for soybean imports from the U.S. (see Ag Perspectives, 22 Dec...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
In contrast to the combination of red and green hues traditional at Christmas time, the CBOT featured mostly red today. Corn, the entire soy complex, and C...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s price trends carried over into the overnight session with soybeans and soy products firmer while the grains were near unchanged to slight...
Organic Enforcement; Trade Enforcement; 2017 Quotes
Organic Enforcement An increase in products, particularly via importation, being falsely marketed in the U.S. as organic has prompted legislation to double...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 December 2017 Domestic prices moved in different directions. On the export market, milling wheat prices continued to drop, fal...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains are higher while the soy complex is under pressure. After yesterday’s fireworks in the soybean pit, the weather situation is failing to develo...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again, Reaching 10-Week High China’s nationwide soymeal inventory hit a 10-week high through mid-December as crushe...
Energy Exports
Export demand is playing an increasingly larger role in the energy markets. Since 2010, those exports have more than doubled with very strong growth occurr...
Market Commentary
Markets reopened this morning after the Christmas holiday with the same lack of enthusiasm that prevailed last week. There was little by way of fresh news...
Do We Dare Be Bullish?
For many months, the CME grain and soy markets have been stuck in a fundamentally, technically and emotionally bearish pattern. Typically, trading volumes...
Clean Fish
Farming is a mess, given its contribution to soil erosion, desertification and other maladies. However, fishing is even worse. At least the effects of farm...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Imports; Biodiesel Production; Asian Rust
China’s Soybean Imports Data released today by China’s General Administration of Customs indicates the country’s U.S. soybean imports tot...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Merry day-after-Christmas! Corn and wheat futures were generally quiet in the market’s annual post-Christmas trading lull while soybean futures were...
Happy Holidays from WPI
The WPI team sends best wishes for the holiday season to you and your families. Plese note that our next report will be issued on 26 December ...
Tax Tiff; Castrating Animal Welfare
Tax Tiff It brings the effective (total) tax rate on U.S. companies down to Europe’s average effective rate, but the Wall Street Journal notes that t...
Oilseed Highlights: New Chinese FM Standard for U.S. Soybeans; Export Sales
China Tightens FM Standard for U.S. Soybeans China intends to tighten its foreign material (FM) standard for U.S. soybeans, effective 1 January 2018. Soybe...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show...
Farm Bill Budget Assurance; Biodiesel Incentives
The House and Senate both passed a continuing resolution (CR) yesterday (before today’s funding deadline) that will keep the government open until 19...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
A Christmas Gift for France’s Farmers
There was an interesting news story from Paris, carried by Reuters in these last days before Christmas, entitled “France to raise minimum food prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Under Pressure as Production Rises India’s 2017/18 sugar production totaled 6.94 MMT as of 15 December 2017, up 5.346 MMT (29.81 percent...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle on Feed inventory were up 8 percent, placements up 14 percent, and marketings of 1.84 million head were the highest for November since the series be...
Market Commentary
Merry Christmas! Markets closed early today at 1 p.m. (EST) and will reopen on Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. (EST). The grain and oilseed markets were fractionally...
Ag Review - December 2017
2017 was an eventful year for the U.S. economy and the agricultural markets. 2018 promises to be just as interesting, although perhaps not as bullish. ...
Hogs and Pigs/Cattle on Feed Reports
Tomorrow, the last business day before Christmas, will be a busy one for livestock news. USDA will be releasing its quarterly Hogs and Pigs inventory repor...
Market Commentary
In an otherwise dull market, today’s USDA/FAS export sales report was a pleasant surprise. For the week ending 14 December, the totals for wheat, cor...
Friday
Fri 12/22/2017 12:00 pm Cattle on Feed NASS 12:00 pm Chickens and Eggs NASS 12:00 pm Cold Storage NASS 12:00 pm Cotton Ginnings NASS 12:00 pm Hogs and Pigs...
Selective Efficiency; Energy Slowdown; GI Barrier
Selective Efficiency Hampton Creek, the artificial foods maker, has announced a new product. It had earlier purchased its own fake mayonnaise from grocery...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsew...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
Grain Producers and Risks
By its nature, grain farming is a risky business, and most farmers are generally tolerant of the chances they take every year. It is commonly said that som...
Closing Bell Wrap-up
Trader’s pre-Christmas exit from the markets was notable today as grains and oilseed futures traded lazily in low volume. One analyst remarked on twi...
Export Sales
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Thursday
Thu 12/21/2017 8:30 am Weekly Export Sales FAS 9:00 am Food Price Outlook ERS 3:00 pm Cost of Pollination NASS 3:00 pm Livestock Slaughter NASS...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 December 2017 Market Trends A 3.9 percent increase in the railroad transportation tariff for grains contributed to increases i...
German Torheit; F&V Fix; Developing Agriculture; National Food Policies
German Torheit The European department at the German Bundestag is seeking to appease Social Democrats and Greens by reportedly arguing that a national ban...
Market Commentary
Congress finally passed the Republican overhaul of the U.S. tax code today and sent it to President Trump for his promised signature. Republicans promised...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Bell Wrap-up
Grain and oilseed futures traded quietly today ahead of the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. With the dry Argentine weather moderating there is lit...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course: With soybean crushers returning to normal activity and ramping up output in anticipation of higher feed demand,...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
Today’s grain and soy markets could be described as in the holiday doldrums, but they have been in that state since long before the season’s ap...
RINs - Brazilian Style
The U.S. is not the only country debating the future of biofuel compliance credits, which are known as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) there. Biofu...
U.S. New Crop Wheat Outlook
Beating up on U.S. wheat markets has virtually become a habit for those analysts still paying attention to them. The irony of U.S. 2017 planted wheat acrea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Oilseed Highlights: South American Issues; India’s Vegoil Imports
Argentina Apparently Seeks U.S. Deal Argentina’s decision to raise the export tax on biodiesel from zero to 8 percent (see Ag Perspectives, 14...
Wednesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Black Sea wheat and corn FOB futures contracts, which are for 50 MT each, can now be traded on CME Glob...
Renegotiating Renewable; Trump Trade Bent; Livestock Deregulation
Renegotiating Renewable The high cost of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), now at $0.98 after reaching $1.07 in October, is hurting smaller oil refi...
Collapsing Winter Wheat Plantings
One of the numbers that will be released in the 12 January USDA reports will be the estimate of winter wheat plantings. Those and spring-planted wheat acre...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday evening session firm and finished that way. Wheat was the leader with small gains in all three markets. Meanwhile, corn and soyb...
The Week Before Christmas: Budget, Debt and Taxes
It was the week before Christmas and all through the House (and Senate), lawmakers were meeting deadlines and advancing priorities with care. Indeed, Congr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Chinese crushers were avid buyers of spot beans last week, purchasing all cheap offers available for December and January. Their margins improved...
Tuesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports include in this list span those covering feed grai...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market continued to be about unchanged last week. Domestic prices in Russia increased $1-4 in the main production regions. A bo...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Wrapping Things Up
It’s an annual tradition at this time to look back and assess where certain matters stand prior to the New Year. In that spirit, below is a summary r...
Fracturing Food; Fracturing Politicians
Fracturing Food Major food processing companies (Unilever, Tysons, Campbell Soup Co., Nestlé, Dean Foods and Mars) have quit the Grocery Manufacture...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Soy complex prices eased a bit this week on better chances for precipitation across the driest parts of southern Brazil and Argentina over the next 10-14 d...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Cotton Production Expected; Prices Slowly Moving Up: The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB)’s estimate of India’s 2017/18 cotton production is...
Market Commentary
Markets were quietly steady overnight in light trading volume. They then started higher this morning on the heels of several export sales announcements, in...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
UN-ification Drives Sectoralism
India coalesced the developing nations in 2001 and forced the rich countries to accept the “Development” part in the WTO’s Doha Developme...
WASDE; GIPSA Rule Controversy to Enter 10th Year; NAFTA Proteins
WASDE and Hog Slaughter USDA’s December WASDE report was released this week, and it showed a drop of 180 million pounds in pork production compared w...
Oilseed Highlights: Critical Weekend in Argentina; WASDE Report; etc.
Critical Weekend for Argentine Corn and Soybean Crops Weather forecasters are predicting some rainfall this weekend over much of Argentina’s soybean...
Weather and Markets
Earlier this week, we were asked why grain and soy futures markets do not seem to be taking the lack of rainfall and resulting dryness in portions of Brazi...
Market Commentary
Bitcoin mania with its wild price swings has taken over the attention of a good part of the financial world, and now it has become a commodity. Following a...