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No Pain, No Gain

U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member Benjamin Cardin (D-Maryland) had criticism yesterday for both former President Barack Obama and curr...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

Closing Futures Prices

Note: Starting 14 May, the tables currently displayed in “Closing Futures Prices” will instead appear in Market Commentary. Today’s closi...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

It was a day of cautiously trading the fundamentals ahead of the May WASDE. Corn and soybeans headed higher in modest volume while the wheat markets were m...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Ministry of Agriculture is making efforts to reduce the planting of major water-consuming...

An Interesting Week

This should be an especially interesting week for grain and soy markets. First and foremost is President Trump’s announcement regarding the status of...

Future of Interest Rates

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on 1-2 May and decided to leave interest rates unchanged. The June meeting, however, will likely be another st...

Asynchrony and Hypocrisy; Amara’s Law

Asynchrony and Hypocrisy The WTO held a full membership meeting today at which Director General Roberto Azevêdo urged members to tackle systemic issu...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

USDA will release the May WASDE on Thursday, which will include its first glimpse at the 2017/18 U.S. supply and demand estimates. It will presumably use t...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Market Commentary

Markets started lower Sunday night, and that weakness accelerated into widespread selling across the wheat and soybean markets today. Some of the same bear...

Closing Futures Prices

Note: Starting 14 May, the tables contained within the “Closing Futures Prices” article will be moved to Market Commentary. Activity in the Chi...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian market remained under pressure last week as U.S. negotiators traveled to China to resolve the escalating trade war. It was ru...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained stable for the old crop positions last week. However, it was firmer for the new crop despite the ruble’s...

International High Ground; GMO Non-Labeling; Cheez Whiz

International High Ground U.S. President Donald Trump has not been wrong in his premise that international trading rules are asynchronous nor in his effort...

More Meetings on RIN Price

The series of White House meetings on an administrative fix to the costs of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), which began in December 2017, will con...

U.S. and World Wheat Production Growing Smaller

We’ve been updating our ideas on U.S. wheat production over each of the past few months, and the primary reason for doing this so early in the season...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

Market Commentary

Markets started the Thursday night session mixed and traded that way until news the U.S. trade delegation to China was headed home without any positive ann...

Closing Futures Prices

Note: Starting Monday (14 May), the tables contained within the “Closing Futures Prices” article will be moved to Market Commentary.  WPI...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Subsidy for Sugarcane Growers Unable to pay for sugarcane deliveries because of high input costs and low sugar prices, the sugar industry approached the go...

Market Commentary

Grain and, especially, soy futures played a waiting game overnight and again during the day session, anticipating some news from the trade discussions betw...

Cultured Meat; Animal Rights

The Strange Culture that Led to Cultured Meat For 40 years or more, a debate has been waged about the impact that the animal rights movement has had on the...

Commodities Are Back in Style

There is an old saying that claims everything that goes around will come around. This is one way of describing a cycle, and the commodity business and mark...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Global weather continued to spur fund buying in corn and wheat while soybeans were pulled lower by uncertainty on the trade outlook. The U.S. and China are...

Export Sales

This week’s Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market’s likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export p...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets were in a corrective mode overnight. Prices for soybeans, wheat and corn edged a few cents lower after Tuesday’s broad May Day...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Please note that because of the May holidays, there are no Russian market updates this week.   Russia: Planting Update According to the Russian Minist...

Fake Name Marketing; Transatlantic Farm Policy Hurdles

Fake Name Marketing The U.S. meat industry has taken note of France’s new law banning the assignment of traditional meat names to new protein manufac...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Trading was quiet in the ag markets today with wheat mostly higher, soybeans lower, and corn unchanged ahead of the U.S.-China trade talks this week. Plant...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds China Looks to Russia for Alternative Soybean Supplies With a trade war looming between the U.S. and China, much of the commentary has focused on...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Market Commentary

Much of the world has been enjoying the May Day holiday, which probably limited overnight trading volumes. Overnight futures prices found soybeans and whea...

419 Scam; Bucking the Ethanol Trend

419 Scam After meeting with Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari yesterday, President Donald Trump said with confidence that Africa’s most populace co...

Lawmakers Seeking Immediate E15 Waiver and Long-Term Reform

30 days from today, E15 will no longer be marketable for most automobiles and light-duty vehicles. Without an exemption from the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP)...

High Stakes Game in China

Agricultural production along the southeastern coast of North Carolina is far down the list of the area’s biggest and most prominent economic activit...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Dry weather across the world pulled wheat markets higher while corn followed on supply concerns of its own. Soybeans were reluctant followers of the wheat...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco is said to be the destination for the first grain shipment from Thunder Bay, Canada after the l...

Farm Bill Outlook in House and Senate

House Ag Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-Texas) would like to have the farm bill on the House floor during the week of 14 May. He is hoping that all...

2018 Crop Production May Not Be So Perfect

After noting in last Monday’s analysis (see Ag Perspectives, 23 April) that markets will be on cruise control for a month or so until crops get plant...

Market Commentary

Markets were stronger overnight, led by (of all things) wheat. There were several reasons for that strength last night and today, including the following:...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Argentina The holiday in Argentina has made for a light news week so far. The center of Buenos Aires received strong rains over the weekend, putti...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The market is closely watching the weather development in southern Russia and Ukraine as the drought has been persisting for about three week...

Trump’s Truth and Benefits

Most nations practice some form of industrial planning, but globalization is now revealing its downside implications. National subsidies have not only wrec...

Stats Canada Surprises!

Stats Canada released its initial planting estimates for Canada this morning, which included several significant surprises such as the following: Canola a...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...

Market Commentary

Markets were generally firm overnight. That “firmness” then blossomed into a full-fledged, general rally this morning, led by big gains in the...

Ag Review - April 2018

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook f...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Higher Wheat Procurement Could Be Problematic In the first three weeks of the wheat procurement drive, state and central agencies have acquired more than 2...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade found corn and wheat futures in a mild retreat from yesterday’s big gains, while soybeans were quietly higher. Trading volume was rat...

Terrible Trade Negotiators; Polticized Trade

Terrible Trade Negotiators Donald Trump’s accusation about the trade negotiators from past administrations was that they were terrible. However, the...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

The New York Times and GM Foods

Earlier this week, there was an interesting addition to the seemingly endless debate over genetic modification of foods and crops used in livestock and con...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Improved Southern Plains weather left the wheat market lower today while soy rallied on hopes of disarmament in the U.S.-China trade war. Corn was flat to...

Export Sales

Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...

Market Commentary

Follow-through from Tuesday’s rally sent grain and soybean prices higher overnight in moderate volume. Word late Tuesday that U.S. Treasury Secretary...

Goose versus Gander; Selective Precaution; Overused Residue

Goose versus Gander Left-leaning activist groups lacked trust in the EU’s food safety regulations, and now the European Food Safety Authority has ann...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 April 2018 Prices continued to grow due to devaluation of the ruble, which began 6 April, and rising export prices. The price...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Global wheat worries and technical buying lifted the entire grains complex today. The drought in the Southern U.S. Plains, along with increasingly worrisom...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Surges as Prices Decline The steady buildup of imported soybean stocks, falling live pig prices and a decline in the prices for...

Market Commentary

Small-scale liquidation continued in overnight trade, although trading volume declined from recent overnight sessions. Price changes were minimal, but afte...

Outlook for Protein Prices

  USDA released its monthly Cold Storage report today, which showed a steady supply of proteins. It indicated the following as of 31 March: Chicken w...

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; China’s Soy Imports

More U.S. Soybeans Sold to Argentina This morning USDA announced that 130,000 MT of U.S. soybeans had been sold to Argentina, which included 60,000 MT for...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

Fair Trade Impacts; Views on Trade Policy, Feed Grains

Fair Trade Impacts Harvard University researchers Raluca Dragusanu and Nathan Nunn analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 24260) the impact of fair trade coffee...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Grains market rebounded from overnight pressure on continuing weather problems for the world wheat crop and USDA’s announcement that the U.S. sold 13...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia is the new destination for one of the large sorghum vessels being rerouted from China due...

Dreaming Up Excitement

The U.S. spring planting has finally begun. There is an adage that crops always get planted, and we believe this to be true even if what gets planted is no...

Markets in Neutral

Market are shifting more into neutral now that weather across the Corn Belt and northern Plains is finally starting to turn spring-like and even summerish...

Fake Animal Welfare; Fake Meat

Fake Animal Welfare The Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST) today released a study on the status of animal welfare knowledge and practic...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market remains volatile, although it is perhaps less so than in early April. Traded volume has been huge with the vo...

Market Commentary

Markets surprised the trade a bit and opened with small gains Sunday night, led by KC wheat despite the rainfall across portions of the southern Plains har...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained firm last week as the challenging domestic logistics in Russia and slow farmer selling are supporting the old c...

Cattle On Feed

USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report last Friday. The total number of cattle in feedlots with a 1,000 plus capacity as of 1 April was 11.7...

Summer Weather?

Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before...

Market Commentary

Markets were lower overnight, and that trend continued into the day session. One word that described today’s market action was weather, which is look...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...

Cattle on Feed

Cattle on Feed in U.S. feedlots of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on April 1, 2018. The inventory was 7 percent above April 1, 2017 – a...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However,...

Ag Implications of Legalizing Marijuana

Attorney General Jeff Sessions released a memo in January (see Ag Perspectives, 5 January) rescinding the so-called Cole memo, issued by Obama administrati...

Pig in an R&D Poke; Regenerative Economics; Language Squeeze

Pig in an R&D Poke Various coalitions of U.S. agricultural research universities are lamenting that the House Agriculture Committee-approved farm bill...

Market Commentary

In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much r...

Cattle on Feed; Farm Bill Update

Cattle on Feed  Tomorrow USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report. The industry’s pre-report estimates peg the total number on feed a...

More Tales from Export Sales

Insofar as cash and futures markets for grain and the soy complex are concerned, the impacts of U.S. trade policy issues are ultimately measured by the vol...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Thursday trading was low and slow in the corn and soybean markets while wheat was higher on the back of continued dryness for the Plains. The Export Sales...

Export Sales

U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 April 2018 The key factor influencing the Russian grain markets was the U.S. introduction of new sanctions on 6 April, which ca...

UnSNAPped and Prop 2; CRP Crossover; Sorghum Numbers

UnSNAPped and Prop 2 The U.S. House Agriculture Committee today approved H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, but it passed along party lines...

Market Commentary

Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting t...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course With the brief holiday concluded, the increased cost of soybeans and reduced crush output pushed soymeal invento...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Wheat led the grains complex higher today on a drier weather forecast for the parched Southern Plains. Corn and soybeans traded both sides of unchanged in...

Market Commentary

Trade issues with China continue. In an antidumping action, its government declared a study has shown that U.S. grain sorghum has been sold to Chinese user...

Signs of Life for Black Sea Wheat Futures

The production of wheat as a cultivated food crop began before recorded history. It was almost certainly the first crop of any kind to be traded between di...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Farm Bill Markup Tomorrow

The House Ag Committee is scheduled to mark up the chairman’s draft of the farm bill tomorrow. The whole process is still encumbered by some partisan...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Grain trading was mixed and moderate volume today with little fundamental news to shape the market’s direction. The weather is cold and rainy across...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE/EASTMEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government has set its purchase price for local wheat, and the highest quality is fixed at...

Abe-Trump Tête-à-Tête; Milk Shake

Abe-Trump Tête-à-Tête Donald Trump wants a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) with Japan, only rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership...

Ethanol Regulatory and Policy Options

Last week was a very volatile week for biofuels policy. The president said the administration is very close to approving a year-round waiver for E15 as wel...

Barley Supplies Will Be Smallest in Over 25 Years

Market commentaries rarely discuss any crops other than corn, wheat or soybeans. This is because they have futures markets, and that means speculators. Ano...

Market Commentary

Markets were again soft to start the Sunday night session and the week. Soybeans traded mostly back and forth overnight. Wheat markets were quite weak, tho...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans After the instability of two weeks ago, soybean trading around the world was steadier last week. Since the Chinese prime minister announced then t...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week as offers for Russian 12.5 pro were difficult to find below $215/MT FOB. The Russia-U.S. tensions h...

Cruel, Disastrous, Partisan Farm Bill

Traditionally, farm bills have been the paragon of congressional bipartisan comity. However, that has seemingly come to an end. The 2014 Farm Bill took two...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

U.S. Soybean Numbers Still Bearish

The U.S. soybean market has had a bearish fundamental outlook for well over a year. Record U.S. and Brazilian crops in 2017 pushed world supplies to record...

Market Commentary

Markets all started easier Thursday evening and finished the night session mixed with corn down less than a penny, soybeans up 1-2 cents, KC and Chicago wh...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...

You Were Close

Respondents to WPI’s last online survey expressed the view that relations with North Korea reflected a troubled area that is slightly more likely to...

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Wheat Procurement Starts; New Crop Quality Issues Unseasonal rains across the wheat belt (north India) in the last week have somewhat damaged the crop, whi...

Market Commentary

Wheat was the big mover during the overnight session. Its direction was downward as weather models indicated that after another seven days of dry condition...

Huge Day for Ag Policy

It was a huge day for agriculture policy in Washington today with three major developments: The House Agriculture Committee released the Chairman’s...

Trade War Aid for Farmers

U.S. farmers rightly see themselves as being extremely vulnerable to repercussions from President Trump’s nationalistic “cut the balance of tra...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Today’s Export Sales report from USDA held vastly different information for commodities in the grains complex. The report was decidedly bearish wheat...

Export Sales

Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...

Market Commentary

A war of words between the U.S. and Russia over a possible U.S. missile strike against the Syrian regime, intended as a response to its purported gas attac...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 April 2018 Domestic grain prices continued to rise in the European part of Russia because of high demand from foreign importers,...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

After yesterday’s relatively calm WASDE report, the markets traded a lackluster day as well. Corn and soybean futures traded both side of unchanged w...

Senator Chamberlain; Catharsis and Anecdote; Go India!

Senator Chamberlain The Trump administration proposes to compensate American farmers for any adverse fallout from its efforts to secure greater trading rig...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Rises  Last week marked the annual Qingming Festival Holiday, also known as Tomb-Sweeping Day, which symbolizes the renewal...

Market Commentary

Market participants had plenty to think about today. In an anticipated speech, China’s President Xi said that he favored cutting tariffs on auto impo...

Commodity Markets Subject to Great Policy Risks

Markets could get difficult to trade moving forward. If the tariff and trade sanction threats weren’t enough, the promises of assistance for farmers...

USDA’s April WASDE

The April WASDE is sometimes viewed as a way station between the end-of-March planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports and the May WASDE, which inc...

Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Sales and Shipments; WASDE Report

Soybean Exporters Realigning Sales/Shipments Due to Possible Chinese Tariff China’s announcement that it will impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soyb...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

WASDE Soyoil

USDA projects U.S. soybean oil price at 30.5 to 32.5 cents per pound for 2017/18. USDA’s global oilseed forecasts include lower production, exports,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...

WASDE Soymeal

Higher U.S. soybean meal prices have supported crush margins and U.S. soybean crush is projected at a record 1,970 million bushels. USDA’s global oil...

WASDE Soybeans

 USDA projects U.S. soybean data changes consisted of increased crush, lower seed and residual use, and lower ending stocks for 2017/18. U.S. soybean...

WASDE Corn

USDA reduced Argentina corn production is due to lower harvested area and yield.  Yield results seem to have been below expectations and dry condition...

WASDE Wheat

USDA estimates that world wheat supplies in 2017/18 will be nearly 3.0 million tons larger as production is raised to a new record of 759.8 million - prima...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS North African buyers of French wheat are finding that their shipments are delayed because of railway str...

Budget Baseline and the Farm Bill

Today the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its 10-year (2019-2028) baseline projection of the federal budget. The document is usually issued in J...

U.S. HRW Production Slipping; HRS Acres Important

The previous early look at potential U.S. 2018 wheat production (see Ag Perspectives, 9 March), using the table below, was before last month’s releas...

Market Commentary

Markets were higher overnight, led by the soy complex with wheat also strong and corn firm. Weekend news shows seemed to hint that there will be no trade w...

Unhidden Trade War

There is the proposition that because there is presently no actual exchange of retaliatory or counter-retaliatory tariffs between the U.S. and China, there...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans The markets were incredibly volatile last week, perhaps the most they’ve been in history. Theoretically, cash basis should be more stable th...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Pricing Tactics

The most painful event for most commodity traders is failing to enter a trade that was correctly anticipated. The second - and most destructive - is to be...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat There were no changes in the Black Sea market last week. The Russian domestic market was stable except for the approximate $4/MT increase in...

Assault on RINs

By early next week, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt is expected to present President Trump’ with a list of options regarding biofuels policy and ways...

Deep Water; Economic Truth; Double Squeeze; WTO Weaknesses

Deep Water USDA ignored the advice of the National Organic Standards Board (NAOB) and organic hardliners by allowing the continued use of carrageenan in or...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

China’s Soybean Stocks versus U.S. Exports

Can China use its large soybean stocks to punish the U.S. in a soybean trade war? Maybe, but it will be very difficult to do so.  Recently, some analy...

Market Commentary

Last night’s trade appeared to be headed toward steady or perhaps slightly higher openings following yesterday’s rebound in corn and wheat futu...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

  Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected t...

Will the U.S. Ever Export a Soybean Again?

Those of us who might watch any of the various business news channels often wonder just how good their information is. This question becomes more important...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade saw grain and soy prices continue the recovery that began during Wednesday’s day session, which followed the major sell-off immediate...

Potential Consequences

China’s announcement of a planned retaliation against the 25 percent U.S. tariff on $50 billion worth of its exports was released during the Tuesday...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

World weather worries sent the entire grains complex higher in today’s trading, with corn and wheat futures advancing beyond Tuesday’s pre-Chin...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...

Trade War Adjustments; Imports Too!

Trade War Adjustments Back in 1973, the U.S. imposed a soybean export embargo and then export licensing requirements due to short supply concerns. The resu...

Export Sales

This week’s Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market’s likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export p...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 March 2018 Domestic feed grain prices continued growing due to stable demand from exporters. Milling wheat export prices were...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

Market Commentary

Yesterday the Trump administration detailed a list of about 1,300 items imported from China that it intends to subject to a 25 percent tariff to offset $50...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

The fireworks started at 3 AM in the grains market this morning, coinciding with China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag products, inc...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...

Drip, Drip, Drop; Populist Modi

Drip, Drip, Drop USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue told his audience at Michigan State University this week that the Trump administration’s trade policy ap...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Continues to Fall as Utilization Rates Decrease With crushers reducing their operational output, China’s soymeal inventory...

Fear and Panic: Overreaction in the Soybean Pits

Early this morning, China announced U.S. soybean imports would be subjected to a 25 percent tariff. The move comes in response to proposed U.S. tariffs on...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s big trading volume and price declines were tempered overnight with soybeans and wheat turning a bit higher while corn mostly stayed withi...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Trump’s Curious Trade Policy; Alt “Meat”

Trump’s Curious Trade Policy Developments in U.S. trade policy are not consistent with the professed message of the Trump administration. For example...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Early gains in corn and soybeans gave way to selling pressure this afternoon while poor crop condition ratings for winter wheat boosted prices across the b...

Record Energy Exports

The geopolitics of trade has been in the news and on the negotiating table since the first year of the Trump administration, all casting the U.S. as coming...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

News Updates Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Oman Food Investment Holding Company (OFIC) is planning to invest $100 million in a fa...

A Wary Soybean Market

The fundamental soybean supply/demand outlook has fallen into a classic tug-of-war between competing bullish and bearish factors, which makes forecasting t...

Hogs and Pigs Report; Chinese Tariffs

USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report last Thursday and before the three-day market holiday. The total 1 March hog and pig inventory was 72.9 mi...

Corn’s the Game (Maybe)

WPI previously took an early peek at the potential 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook (see Ag Perspectives, 19 March) and estimated U.S. farmers would plant a total...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

Market Commentary

Markets had strong buying in the Sunday night session following the three-day Easter weekend and USDA’s bullish corn/soybean acreage estimates of las...

The Worst is Coming

It is difficult for U.S. agriculture to see any positives in Trump trade policy, and following are a few examples why: The harsh rhetoric associated with...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Last week was again volatile for South American soybeans. Brazil’s basis continued rising until USDA shocked the markets on Thursday with sh...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were stable except for the $4/MT increase in the southern region, which is close to the Black Sea and Azov Sea port...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures markets basically just marked time overnight and this morning until USDA released its quarterly stocks and prospective planting repor...

Stocks and Prospective Plantings

USDA’s 1 March quarterly stocks and initial planting intentions reports have a history of providing market-moving surprises, and today’s releas...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

“Where did those acres go?” That’s the question analysts around the world are asking in the wake of toady’s USDA reports. The repor...

Export Sales

Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...

Power of Phonies; Weakness of Sanctions; Meat with Crossbones

Power of Phonies According to Polish author Tomak Jankowski, the biologist Trofim Lysenko sought to make a name for himself in the early days of the Soviet...

Market Commentary

Low volume and mixed price movement for grains and the soy complex characterized both overnight trading and the day session. Most traders seem to be positi...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for gra...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 March 2018 Domestic feed grain prices continued to rise, primarily due to higher demand from exporters. However, FOB prices st...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

The fireworks were in the livestock futures markets today as lean hog futures pulled an impressive reversal on big trading volumes. This support spilled ov...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Pig Prices Fall for 10th Straight Week Despite optimism from some market observers regarding the near and mid-term strength of China’s...

Trade Somersaults; Self-Inflicted Hurt

Trade Somersaults Analysts are now writing that U.S. trade policy is destabilizing the world economy, though Trump supporters would say that global trade p...

Market Commentary

In contrast to the heavy volume during the Sunday/Monday overnight session, trade was very light last night and in the early morning. Futures price action...

Biofuel and Bankruptcy

Yesterday was the deadline for the bankruptcy case filed by Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES). A settlement approved by a federal judge includes a contro...

A Key Week for the Market

The factors that affect the grain and soy markets’ price movements are obviously always changing. However, there are times when the potential for the...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Overnight trading was slow and mixed with little direction ahead of Thursday’s plantings report. The day session featured mixed trade that ended most...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egyptian officials say that the government plans to buy at least 4 MMT of local wheat in 2018, an incre...

High Leverage, Limited Results; Pathogens and Probiotics

High Leverage, Limited Results President Donald Trump’s strategy of using the imposition of tariffs to extract trade concessions is working but not i...

30 March Planting Intentions

As has been noted, USDA will release its 2018 planting intentions estimates on 30 March at noon (EDT), which will be the first ones for the year that are b...

Market Commentary

Markets were higher overnight in very good trading volume for a night session. U.S. equity markets were expected to recover some of Friday’s big loss...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The South American markets keep rising as President Trump’s announcement last week that he would impose duties on Chinese st...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...

March Cattle on Feed

USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report, released 23 March, showed the number of cattle in 1,000+ capacity feedlots at 11.7 million head as of 1 M...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was again little changed last week. Russia’s domestic prices as well as the ruble remained stable. Its new crop 12...

Cattle on Feed

United States Cattle on Feed up 9 Percent on March 1, 2018. Placements in feedlots during February 2018 were 7 percent above 2017. Marketings of fed cattle...

Ag Highlights of Budget Bill

The president signed the omnibus spending bill today after a brief veto threat over the lack of a legislative provision for the Deferred Action on Childhoo...

Market Commentary

Overnight volume was big with markets down significantly on the heels of the U.S. equity markets’ collapse after commodity trading closed yesterday...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Will the trade dispute with China become the “Black Swan” event for 2018 markets? Market chatter today would suggest it will, but as John Baize...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Shows Deficit While the government of India (GOI) has forecast the 2017/18 soybean crop at 11.39 MMT, the trade and indus...

Export Sales

U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...

Market Commentary

The weekly USDA/FASS export sales report has been delayed until tomorrow (Friday) morning because of the winter storm that forced the closure of government...

Sound and Fury Over Trade

Did the increasing globalization of world economies and politics lead to expanding world trade, or did expanding world trade lead to increasing globalizati...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Wheat – particularly KC HRW futures – rose today on continued drought/heat for the Southern Plains states while corn and soybean futures were l...

Ag Review - March 2018

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook f...

Cattle on Feed Estimates; China’s Retaliation

Cattle on Feed  USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on...

Market Commentary

To no one’s surprise, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its interest rate a quarter-percent to a still his...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 March, 2018 Domestic feed grain prices grew significantly, especially in the European part of Russia and particularly for corn...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

CBOT row crop futures traded a quiet day with little news to elicit excitement ahead of the Prospective Plantings report. CME livestock futures, on the oth...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again as Pig Prices Fall Further China’s estimated nationwide soymeal inventory reached just under 800,000 MT as of...

China Differences; Might at WTO; Hiding Behind the Law

China Differences A hog slaughter plant was rejected in the U.S. farm state of Nebraska for not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) reasons, but scale production is vie...

Waiting on a Budget; Seeking a Tax Fix

Congress is completely consumed by the spending bill, which was to have been unveiled today. Indeed, it’s nearly halfway through FY 2018, and federal...

Market Commentary

During overnight trading, grain and soy markets tried to recover from the beating they took on Monday but with very limited success. Prices were firmer, al...

2018/19 U.S. Wheat Outlook By Class

U.S. wheat futures markets have been buffeted by a number of sometimes conflicting fundamental trends in the last nine months. Very low wheat prices in 201...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

CBOT grain futures were largely beneficiaries of a dead cat bounce today – lead by soybean futures – while livestock futures continued their im...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt is adjusting its ration card system, raising the value from $1.17/month to $2.78/month due to inc...

WTO Makeover; Taxing Success; Ring-Fence Skepticism

WTO Makeover There is reasonable concern that the Trump administration is blocking the appointment of appellant judges at the WTO as part of a goal to impl...

The MY 2018/19 Sleeper Crop

WPI is not alone in pegging corn as the potential “sleeper” crop in MY 2018/19. World corn ending supplies have been edging lower in the past f...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Argentina It was a quiet week in the soybean market. There are still players with long positions who are offering their final cargoes of what is a...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Market Commentary

Markets started the Sunday evening session with across-the-board losses. KC wheat was the biggest loser, down more than a dime early. The rainfall map for...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was about unchanged last week. There were no significant moves in the Russian domestic market, and the ruble was slightl...

Larry Kudlow and Explaining the Coming Trade Deficit Expansion

The vacancy on the White House National Economic Council (NEC), which resulted from Gary Cohn’s resignation after the president enacted steel and alu...

Worsening Weather Problems

The markets have certainly been full of weather talk lately with outlooks for Argentina probably the first item every oilseed trader looks at each day. A v...

Market Commentary

Markets were generally soft overnight. That pattern of weakness then held throughout today in corn and wheat markets, but the soy complex did not follow an...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn Exports Unlikely Without More Signifcant Drop in Domestic Prices Domestic corn prices in the key rabi production center (Gulabbagh, Bihar) have contin...

Dairy Reforms Keep Coming; Cattle Price Reactions to COF Reports

Dairy Reforms Keep Coming The emergency appropriations bill that passed on 9 February included additional cash and some reforms to the dairy Margin Protect...

Market Commentary

The overnight session saw grain and soy prices generally firmer in something of a recovery from Wednesday’s lingering weakness. Soybeans and MGEX spr...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

Looking at Corn Export Sales

Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 8 March showed the expected trend of large sales for corn, soybeans and soy products but a v...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

The grain markets “closed early” today as most trader’s attention turned to the start of NCAA’s March Madness basketball tournament...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s export sales results. Analysis of the lat...

Export Sales

Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 March 2018 Domestic feed grain prices grew slightly in the European part of Russia, and milling wheat prices remained stable in...

Moral-Based Trade II; Data Dump; Conference Fever

Moral-Based Trade II The European Parliament (EP) has passed a resolution calling for the inclusion of gender equality goals in free trade agreements. As W...

Market Commentary

A swirl of rumors about possible new trade actions against China from the Trump administration provided a backdrop for today’s grain and soy futures...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Grains and oilseeds were mostly lower today and the livestock complex’s early leap higher melted down at midday. The weather in Argentina is less thr...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventories Down Sharply at End of February A significant increase in feed demand at the end of February pushed China’s estimated na...

Market Commentary

Overnight price action saw grain and soy prices continue the firmer trend set by the rebound from earlier losses late in Monday’s day session that wa...

Oilseed Highlights: Indian and Chinese Soybean Imports

India Importing Record Volume of Soybeans High domestic soybean prices in India coupled with a smaller domestic crop in 2017 is causing processors in that...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Grain futures were mostly higher, especially in early trading, as technical conditions and weather issues around the world provided support. Cattle prices...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS According to the latest information on its new trade agreement with Russia and Kazakhstan, Iran has agr...

Corn Market Debate

The surprise in the March WASDE was USDA’s aggressive increase in estimated demand for U.S. corn during the second half of the 2017/18 crop year, rai...

RFS Reform Turmoil Continues

The White House was to hold a meeting today, chaired by Vice President Pence, to discuss more options on price relief for Renewable Identification Numbers...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The South American soybean market was very active again last week. Despite rising CBOT futures and basis levels, demand from China remained...

Market Commentary

Markets were soft in the Sunday evening session. There was light rainfall across 20-25 percent of Argentina with another chance for showers later this week...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Considering all the recent chatter about free trade, fair trade, NAFTA, steel and aluminum quotas, etc., a farmer from eastern Montana has pointed out that...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remains supported in the absence of farmers’ selling pressure. The domestic market in Russia was about unchanged l...

Policy Potpourri

Following is an end-of-the-week roundup on some percolating policy matters: Steel Tariffs: President Trump signed the steel and aluminum tariff order yeste...

Market Commentary

Markets were weak overnight and turned much more so today with soybeans and wheat leading the charge lower. Among the numerous bearish factors affecting ma...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Record Sugar Production Expected Based on the projected increase in sugarcane production (see Ag Perspectives, 2 March), a higher crush as well as good rec...

Serious Problems for Hard Red Winter Wheat

The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is on the verge of a total collapse for several reasons, including: As much as 40 percent of the entire HRW region of...

Market Commentary

President Trump signed a proclamation this afternoon establishing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum over the objection of many Republicans in Congress...

North American Livestock; Conventional Egg Mandate

North American Livestock The semi-annual estimate of combined U.S. and Canadian swine and cattle herds was released yesterday. As of 1 January, all cattle...

USDA’s March WASDE

Much like February WASDEs, the March editions are typically viewed as nonevents in terms of market significance since they are essentially released between...

232 Obfuscation; Deceptive Absence; Welcome to Big

232 Obfuscation With most steel and aluminum imports coming from strategic geopolitical partners, the Trump administration’s use of the Section 232 n...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Forecast Revisions in the WASDE

Large US. Soy Export Sales Last Week USDA’s weekly export sales report of today surprisingly showed a major increase in the volume of U.S. soybeans s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

The much-anticipated March WASDE featured mostly bullish news for grains and oilseed traders. Notably, the USDA reduced South American soybean and corn sup...

Export Sales

U.S. corn export show strength. Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current d...

WASDE Soymeal

Soybean meal prices are projected at $325 to $355 per short ton, up $20.00 at the midpoint.  Higher soybean meal prices reflect the impact of sharply...

WASDE Soyoil

With increased crush, soybean oil production is raised.  An increase in food use is more than offset by lower biodiesel use, leaving domestic disappea...

WASDE Soybeans

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2017/18 include higher crush, lower exports, and increased ending stocks compared with last month’s report. S...

WASDE Corn

Major global trade changes for 2017/18 this month include higher projected corn exports for the United States more than offsetting a reduction for Argentin...

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat exports for 2017/18 are reduced 25 million bushels to 925 million, while ending stocks are raised by the same amount.  Exports are lowered...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures markets traded lower overnight and mostly lower again during the day session, reflecting the growing uncertainties facing traders. Th...

Steel Threats; Another Transatlantic Flipping; Meat or Poison

Steel Threats President Donald Trump is set to announce his decision tomorrow on Section 232 duties to be applied to imported steel and aluminum products...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 26 February-2 March 2018 Domestic grain prices remained stable in all regions except for the decreases in western Siberia. Milling w...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Ag commodities trading was quiet today as the markets wait for USDA’s WASDE report tomorrow. Most CBOT products traded both sides of unchanged before...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Declines from Week Before China’s estimated nationwide soymeal inventory totaled 938,800 MT as of 23 February, a slight in...

Market Commentary

The overnight session was a low volume affair with corn and the soy complex doing very little in either direction. Meanwhile, winter wheat markets gave bac...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

Cochran, Dean of Ag Committee, to Resign

The Senate Agriculture Committee has had some unusual turnover this year, and more is coming. Following is a timeline of the changes. Senator Jeff Sessions...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

The rally in ag commodities faltered somewhat today as lower cash soymeal prices and a warming trend in the Black Sea pressured the soy complex and wheat m...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The growth in Turkey’s animal feed industry is very interesting, rising approximately 8 percent p...

Wheat Market Conundrums

The southern Plains drought has essentially been in place since late last fall. It intensified over the winter, spreading mainly south and west but also ea...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Last week was very volatile. Basis in Brazil had been rising slowly in the past few months. Demand was gradually increasing bids, although this wa...

Summary of Futures

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

Beneficial Elimination; Harvest Box Hurdles

Beneficial Elimination Greenpeace wants the rewrite of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to withdraw support for animal agriculture and inste...

One More Puzzle Piece in Place

The February rally came at a very good time for U.S. farmers as that is the month the initial (and minimum) price guarantees are established for the federa...

Market Commentary

Markets were largely neutral overnight. Ongoing dry weather in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains (hard red winter wheat) was offset by fears of just w...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...

More on the Impact of Section 199A Deduction

The “glitch” in the new Section 199A tax deduction provision that incentivizes sales of commodities to cooperatives and leaves a landowner far...

Trump Ready for Trade War

During the 2016 presidential campaign, we noted that one key of the Trump Trade Doctrine was that trade policy must “strengthen the U.S. manufacturin...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Corn is the One to Watch

The soybean and soymeal markets have been on a rather spectacular roll over the last 30 days as the rains never came to Argentina. That has recent estimate...

Market Commentary

Soybeans finished the night session strong with 8-9 cent gains, while wheat was mixed and corn a penny higher. Volume of trade was very big. Markets opened...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

Planned Excess

Contrary to President Trump’s latest boast, trade wars are not good and not easy to win. U.S. agriculture now feels threatened by the effort to prote...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Second Advance Production Estimates Project Record Food Grain Production The government of India (GOI) released the Second Advanced Estimates for Agricultu...

Two-Year RIN Cap and DDGS; Bearish Outlook for Broilers

Two-Year RIN Cap and DDGS  President Trump today voiced his support for a two-year cap on the price of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) during...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex featured erratic up-and-down price movement, although the price range was limited amid moderate volume. Soy...

Overwrought Iron; Ethanol Compromise Conflict; Inflation and Market

Overwrought Iron President Trump announced today that he would be imposing protective duties on imports of steel (25 percent) and aluminum (10 percent). Th...

Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

Commodities are in Vogue Again

In the 1840s, the ad hoc trading of physical lots of wheat, corn, rye, oats and hay on a street corner in Chicago eventually became transaction-based on st...

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...

Export Sales

Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...

Market Commentary

Green was the color of the day for grain and soy markets. Prices wavered a bit at the opening of overnight trading, but they soon began to push higher. Som...

Commodities’ Day in the Sun; Fixing U.S.–Vietnam Trade

Commodities’ Day in the Sun Pulling agricultural commodity prices out of the basement requires either a larger boost in demand or a shortfall in supp...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 February 2018 Domestic grain prices continued to rise due to growing export prices in all regions except Siberia where they re...

Summary of Futures

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends China’s Ag Imports Climb Nearly 13 Percent in 2017 With the conclusion of China’s Lunar New Year celebrations, its Ministry of Com...

Ag Review - February 2018

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of farm inputs and equipment, the U.S. grain industry, the global soybean outlook, U.S. meat and livestock indu...

States versus Canada; Liu He Hollow Gift; Clean Label Antithesis

States versus Canada At least two U.S. states (Wyoming and Oklahoma) are considering their own country-of-origin labeling requirement on beef. Colorado ear...

Market Commentary

Tomorrow (28 February) is the first day for delivery intentions against March futures contracts. As of the close yesterday, more than 105,000 contracts of...

Let the Guessing Games Begin

The noted economist John Kenneth Galbraith famously observed that “the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,&r...

Summary of Futures

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

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