One of the constants in terms of market inputs is the weekly export sales report compiled and released by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)...
Articles
Market Commentary
General Comments Today’s grain and soy futures markets can be described as very similar to what has been seen all week with narrow price ranges, mini...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
Thursday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Missing Trade Policy Component; U.S.–Japan FTA; Trade Goal and Ag Sector Health
Missing Trade Policy Component WTO Director General Roberto Azevēdo is suggesting a plurilateral approach for at least some of the issues failing to reach...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 October 2017 Market Trends Wheat prices increased slightly as prices for other crops fluctuated insignificantly. GEOGRAP...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventories Fall Again Over Holiday Week There was a sharp slowdown in crushing activity during the lengthy holiday week that combined the...
Market Commentary
General Comments: If there is one word that describes the grain and soy futures market this week, our pick would be lethargic. Volume is very low with pric...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Wednesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Farm or Be Taxed in Africa
A dead economist’s ideas are alive and well in ag policy debate. Many policy ideas, especially related to taxation, are attributed to “d...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Crop Impacts Prices; U.S. Senators and Biodiesel Blending Mandate; NOPA Crush Report
Larger China Soybean Crop Results in Lower Prices Last year China decided to boost its support to farmers growing soybeans while simultaneously reducing th...
Some Miscellaneous Thoughts
We have just returned from our annual autumn fishing trip. This year’s destination was the eastern part of Idaho, a state filled with beautiful scene...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS: Morocco’s import duty on soft wheat will be reduced from the current 135 percent to 30 percent on 1 December 2017...
Market Commentary
General Comments: Lower and slower describes today’s grain and soy markets for the most part. Overnight trading saw barely more than 13,000 contracts...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Tuesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Trump Transition Still Ongoing
There’s been much attention this year on the slow pace of Secretary Sonny Perdue’s confirmation and the filling of subcabinet positions at USDA...
Judged Broken; Irrelevant Facts
Judged Broken EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström expressed understandable frustration with the continued blocking by Washington of new dispute se...
Is the U.S. Headed to Have Just Two Major Crops?
It is becoming clearer every year that U.S. farmers might be headed towards planting just two major crops: corn and soybeans. Consider the following: Wint...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Domestic prices in Russia continue to rise in the south (close to the ports) while d...
Mercosur In-Country Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Supply/Demand Update Brazil’s Conab just released its first estimates for the 2017/18 campaign, which reflect the general trend of su...
Market Commentary
General Comments: Corn, soybean and wheat markets were steady to just fractionally higher overnight in light volume. They then opened slightly higher today...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
CFTC Data & Charts
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Next Week
Mon 10/16/2017 12:00 pm Cotton & Wool Outlook: October 2017 ERS 12:00 pm Oil Crops Outlook: October 2017 ERS 3:00 pm Feed Outlook: October 2017 ERS 3:0...
Problem Solved
The CME isn’t interested in proposing any more solutions that would be in search of a problem; that was the message from the organization’s man...
Conspiracy Theorist
Rene Ebersole writes in The Nation about Monsanto and how the glyphosate controversy could be the company’s “Big Tobacco” moment. However...
Farm Subsidy Reformists
The free-market think tank American Enterprise Institute has issued a paper calling for an end to U.S. farm bill crop subsidies and a shifting of those fun...
Equilibrium
The 12 October USDA reports might have created a state of equilibrium in wheat, corn and soybean markets for the following reasons: Any significant change...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Cotton Production Could Bring Prices Down The land planted to cotton in India has increased 18.62 percent to 12.1 million hectares in 2017/18 versus...
Market Commentary
General Comments Markets were quietly steady to higher overnight following yesterday’s strong closes in soybeans that pulled corn higher as wel...
Closing Futures Prices
The October WASDE sparked a strong rally in soybean futures which pulled corn along higher. Wheat futures initially traded higher but ended the day lower...
Friday
Fri 10/13/2017 8:30 am Weekly Export Sales FAS 9:00 am Feed Grains Database ERS 12:00 pm Meat Price Spreads ERS 3:00 pm Dairy Data (Dairy Monthly Tables) E...
Scapegoat Wine
Copa-Cogeca’s Wine Working Party has warned that climate change and extreme weather have caused a “historically low” wine harvest. French...
Mob versus Science
Activists in Europe delivered more than the 1 million signatures required under the European Citizens’ Initiative to compel action on their demand to...
Livestock Roundup: Bearish WASDE
The WASDE was bearish for the meat and livestock market, but it could have been much worse without one factor. WASDE USDA released its WASDE report today...
Oilseed Highlights: Dow Enlist E3 Soybeans; USDA Reports’ Soybean Highlights
Dow to Team with ADM to Sell Soybean Seed Not Approved in Europe and China Dow AgroSciences will partner with ADM to sell its Enlist E3 soybeans in t...
A Friendly USDA Report
Today’s crop production and supply/demand estimates were considered slightly bullish for soybeans but neutral corn and wheat. Soybean futures traded...
Market Commentary
The October WASDE was surprisingly bullish soybeans, which jumped 26.75 cents higher, and neutral/bearish corn. Wheat of course received another bearish re...
Silver Bullet Misses; Eggsactly Wrong
Silver Bullet Misses In mythology, bullets cast from silver can stop werewolves and witches. In actual ballistic studies comparing bullets made of silver v...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Poor weather is creating corn harvest delays in Ukraine and is pushing prices higher. Russian wheat prices were stable this week while corn prices continue...
Closing Futures Prices
Poor weather is creating corn harvest delays in Ukraine and is pushing prices higher. Russian wheat prices were stable this week while corn prices continue...
Market Commentary
General Comments: The overnight session featured prices drifting lower on lack of any buying interest. December corn finished down 1 ½ cents while N...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s corn prices remain on the defensive and it is likely any governmental support policies will shift towards processor incentives in the long ru...
Market Commentary
General Comments: As wildfires engulfed parts southern California today, it seems fitting to use a firefighting adage to describe the grain markets...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Low asking prices for PNW soybeans are crowding out U.S. Gulf, Brazilian, and Argentinian exporters, with the latter needing to lower prices 20 cents to be...
Expansion of North American Marine Aquaculture Jeopardized by Salmon Escape
The U.S. soybean sector has placed a high priority on promoting the use of soymeal and soy protein in aquaculture feeds in the U.S. and around the world. M...
Market Commentary
General Comments: There are two major factors that will affect grain and oilseed prices this week: WASDE: It is USDA report week (again). Revised corn and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures' technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for gra...
Regulations and The RIN Price Roller Coaster
There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding biofuel regulatory policy currently, much of which has whipsawed RINs prices.There’s a lot of uncertainty surround...
Labor’s Poor Math; North Korea; Trade Priorities
Corporate profits are (incorrectly) attributed solely to greed – but not if it’s a technology company. Elsewhere, few people believe the U.S. and North Kor...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Traders should be sleeping well with the general lack of things to keep you up at night. However, danger is lurking below the surface of several markets.Th...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Indian government is likely to implement an import tax of 20 percent on wheat, making it more cost effective to transport wheat across India than impor...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
WPI's New Website
The world is changing fast and World Perspectives is changing with it. Later this month, we will launch a completely updated website that will... The worl...
Market Commentary
HRS wheat led the wheat complex higher today and reports of poorer-than-expected soybean yields ushered in some buying in that contract. No spillover buyin...
Common Thread
Corn and soybean futures have been lackluster in recent weeks but several factors are pointing to a more interesting future. COMMON THREAD: Bits and Pieces...
Oilseed Highlights: New Hurricane May Damage Soybeans, U.S. Soy Exports, EU Soy
The new Hurricane Nate will likely damage Mid-South soybeans and the market is pricing in a risk premium for this event. U.S. soybean exports remain robust...
The Scientific Skinny on Fat
The last dietary guidelines issued by the federal government called for a 50 to 60 percent reduction in meat consumption; one Congressman wants to reform t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Bits and Pieces
Corn and soybean futures have been lackluster in recent weeks but several factors are pointing to a more interesting future.USDA’s 29 September small grain...
Market Commentary
Soybeans put on the most impressive show today with non-commercial buying while corn managed to climb as much as three cents higher today. Wheat, on the ot...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Fake Standards; FDA Flunks; Aussie Prostration; Nuke Leverage
The Environmental Working Group confuses exposure with actual risk; “Love” is no longer a granola ingredient; Australia believes it can negotiation better...
Moral Based Trade; Marginal Change Required
Tying climate change requirements to trade agreements may seem wise, but doing so holds dangerous moral implications. Elsewhere, negotiation means everybod...
Market Commentary
Weak cash basis is a drag on corn futures and ethanol is that market’s only bright spot. Soybean futures firmed today on poor weather in Brazil while wheat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices continued to fall last week while Ukrainian prices increased. Ukraine has been granted additional grain export quotas from the EU, whi...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
Trading in agricultural products has been light due to China’s Mid-Autumn Festival. Year to date, U.S. exports to China have reached their third high...
Farm Bill Catches a Break in Senate Budget
The Senate Budget Committee is scheduled to pass its FY2018 budget plan tomorrow; and the House may take up its budget blueprint this week too. What does t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
U.S. Wheat's Mixed Bag
WPI forecasts 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports will be 5% above USDA’s latest projection. Russia’s record production will not be able to overcome...Among the lit...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures defied their downtrend and moved higher on news of rising Russian prices. Corn futures are a nickel away from their contract low while soybea...
WPI's New Website
The world is changing fast and World Perspectives is changing with it. Later this month, we will launch a completely updated website that will... The worl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenya is facing a maize shortage while Zambia faces oversupply with the inability to export. Meanwhile, Turkey is looking for a new customs union arrangeme...
Ending Labor; Proven versus Suspected
The world’s first autonomously produced crop has important implications for U.S. immigration policy while activists remain confused on the difference betwe...
Oilseed Highlights: Plenish Soybeans, Brazil Soy Exports, U.S. Soybean Yields
Plenish® soyoil is found to reduce obesity but cause liver dysfunction. Elsewhere, Brazil exports lage soymeal and soyoil volumes while U.S. farmers pick u...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets came under pressure from harvest hedge selling while last week’s bearish reports continue to rock the wheat market. General Commen...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American soybean markets are quiet and fighting for competitiveness against the U.S. PNW. Argentine corn markets have a large carry from October-Nove...
Derivative Choices; Policy Choices; Loss of Hydrogen
India is allowing commodity derivatives trading while the European Parliament wants to increase regulation on futures markets, time will tell which policy...
Disappointment in Wheat Country
Both winter and spring wheat area is likely to decrease again from last year’s record low. The reasons are many and include...Last Friday’s USDA reports ag...
Comment Period on WOTUS Rule Closed
Though way behind schedule, agriculture’s top regulatory priority is one step closer to being completed, and will likely be so by early next year, but will...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Algeria bought 480,000 MT of wheat last week for December delivery, paying $211-212/MT CNF. The sales were certainly based on French wheat because of an is...
Ag Review: Meat Exports and Macroeconomic Opportunities
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...
Drugless and Cureless; Seasonal Trap; Economics versus War
Florida produce growers who are tired of competing with Mexico have reportedly prompted the Trump administration into a policy for reducing trade and consu...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
USDA Reports Bearish Wheat, Positive Corn and Soybeans
There were two primary considerations in the USDA 1 September quarterly stocks estimates and annual small grains summary reports that were released this mo...
Market Commentary
USDA's larger-than-expected spring wheat production estimate caught the market by surprise. Meanwhile, corn tagged along with the strong soybean market. Ge...
Conference Critical of Farm Policy to Be Convened in DC
It is easy to tell that the farm bill is right around the corner because all the anti-farm program think tanks are suddenly engaging in the policy debate.N...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is expected to have a robust sugarcane harvest with production at 25.1 MMT in sugar year 2017/18, and there has been considerable discussion about en...
Market Commentary
Today’s futures trade was quiet with low volume, just as one might expect on the day prior to an important report from USDA. In fact, nearly all of today’s...
The Jones Act – Again
Aid to hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico can only be delivered by air or ocean vessel. However, the effort to bring relief has been further hampered by t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Troubled Horizon; Big versus Small
The EU is strengthening its food safety and inspection measures against fraud, contamination and duality. Looking down the road, however, there is a more t...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released the Hogs and Pigs report today, confirming a record swine herd for the third quarter in a row. Another factor, though, has kept prices from p...
Oilseed Highlights: Corn versus Soybeans in Argentina; Subsidy Complaint against Argentine Biodiesel; Export Sales
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
Market Commentary
Corn futures prices managed to move in a 6-cent range today as an increasing number of early yield reports are hinting that NASS may not be as far off with...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's crude sunflower oil prices stopped growing and remained at $866-869/MT EXW. Although forecasts for 2017/18 production are lower than the 20...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
WTO Sideshows; USTR Breakdown; Virtual Politics; Macron’s Vision
The WTO’s annual Public Forum is being held this week, and the theme is how to create an open and inclusive trading system for all. However, it is more soc...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week’s landed price for imported soybeans fell $3/MT to $420/MT as China’s yuan lost ground to the U.S. dollar for the second straight wee...
Anticipating Quarterly Stocks
It has been a few years since markets were whipsawed by a series of inexplicable quarterly stocks surprises from USDA. Even if those numbers to be released...
The EPA Seeks Ways to Reduce the RFS
The EPA issued another short-term opportunity to comment on its proposed biofuel volumes, especially how to reduce the biodiesel mandate.EPA Administrator...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Zimbabwe’s acting president has said that the government’s program of buying maize at $390/MT from farmers and selling it to maize millers at $250 /MT is “...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw volume fade and prices wobble before finishing near Monday’s closes, but more of a price pattern developed during the day session...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Threat to Ethanol; Herbicide Politics; Waste Politics; Two-Way Benefits
California’s legislature voted to move its 2020 presidential primary up from June to March to give itself more relevance in the outcome. However, some worr...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Soybean Yields; Global Rapeseed Output; New Soy Crush Plant
Global rapeseed production in 2017/18 has been forecast to closely match that of the previous year. While crop sizes are expected to change among sev...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Where Did All That Corn Come From?
The market for corn is far more complex on the import side than it is for soybeans with many significant players. The export side, however, is basically li...
Market Commentary
There were likely three issues that pushed all three wheat markets to gains today despite the weakness in soybeans and flat corn market. General Comments S...
Risks to the Export Boom
U.S. ag exports have benefited from strong global demand and also dovish monetary policy at home. The latter is about to change, though, and could impact t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The corn harvest is about 30 percent completed in Romania and Bulgaria, and the yields are exceeding farmers’ expectations in many regions. Those origins a...
U.S.-India Bilateral; Buy Mexican
Nestlé’s subsidiary in Mexico, Grupo Nestlé Mexico, has made a commitment that is one more example of trade policy moving in the wrong direction.. U.S.-Ind...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine FOB market for soybeans is quiet to start this week. Sellers are quoting $0.60X for October and November shipments (protein 34/33), but anoth...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India and the U.S. have continued to build their relationship, but the issue is the trade deficit that favors the former. The U.S. could impose restriction...
Active Month for Soybean Sales
There have been soybean export sales announced every day except for one during the past two-week period, and the outlook for future sales is all about one...
Cattle on Feed
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Hermit Surprise; Geneva Mystery; Fart Measurement; Pollster
WTO Director General Roberto Azevédo is asking key countries to decide what are doable and undoable issues at the organization’s upcoming ministerial in Bu...
COF
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today, which contained some interesting data.USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report to...
COF
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today, which contained some interesting data.USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report to...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
COF
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today, which contained some interesting data.USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report to...
Market Commentary
Most of the market talk today was about upcoming harvest pressure (or perhaps the lack thereof) in corn and soybeans. KC and Chicago wheat futures couldn’t...
There is No Escaping Weather
Clearly, there are a number of weather-related situations with the potential to become important market factors in the months ahead.Weather is a topic for...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean Export Sales; Iranian Soy Imports
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
Cattle on Feed; Red Meat Record; Growth in Organic
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Green Eye Blinders
The European Environmental Bureau (EEB) issued its recommendations for revising the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and now U.S. environmental groups are...
Market Commentary
With harvest beginning to pick up along with USDA’s quarterly stocks report and final small grain summary due out on 29 September, there is little incentiv...
Market Commentary
An initial spurt of buying that followed the very large export sales announcements from USDA/FAS put soybean prices up nearly 9 cents. Wheat futures, thoug...
Competition; UNanswers; CETA Fears
At least one Trump administration nominee is suggesting the goal should be demands for more market access, and the argument is that it is good for everyone...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week's domestic corn price ticked up as demand has been strong in Shandong Province, helped considerably by steady gains in one particular sector's op...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices during 11-15 September followed the previous week's trend as they were again influenced by the same factor. Meanwhile, those prices in...
Peering Over the Horizon
The current limited price action of both the corn and soybean markets is reflecting the lack of fresh market-moving inputs. Looking ahead at the next three...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
What in the Fed is Going On?
With the Federal Open Market Committee meeting today and tomorrow, Fed watchers will be looking for news on interest rates and the Fed’s balance shee...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded on both sides of Monday’s closes overnight and were not far from unchanged at the early morning recess. However, that soon cha...
Poison, Profits and Arrogance
NFL star quarterback Tom Brady goes after the food industry in his new self-help book and replicates the celebrity model of making broad disparaging charac...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Experts in Kenya are saying that the government will not be able to terminate the duty-free importation of white maize at the end of September as planned b...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian and Argentine Soy Crops; EU Duties and Argentine Biodiesel; NOPA Crush; Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Market Commentary
General CommentsMarkets were all slightly higher during the first half of the Sunday evening session and then faded as the sun began rising to finish lower...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The 12.5 pro Russian wheat has moved up about $3 in the past two weeks, but it remains the cheapest origin by far for this quality. As a result, buyers fro...
Market Commentary
Markets were all slightly higher during the first half of the Sunday evening session and then faded as the sun began rising to finish lower. Soybeans and s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
House Passes FY 2018 Spending Bill
For the first time in 12 years, the House has finished all regular appropriations bills prior to the beginning of the next fiscal year. However, expected s...
Weak Markets, No Selling Interest
On the doorstep of corn and soybean harvests, farmer selling across the country remains very limited. There are several reasons why.On the doorstep of corn...
Expect Action; WTO Reversals; Foie Gras Faux Pas; Tech Like Food
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer responded to critics today by noting that the erosion in American support for free trade was not rooted in igno...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Rain in Argentina is threatening the wheat and barley crops, while the country’s corn market remains well supplied and low priced. Meanwhile, interesting m...
Outdated Embargo Protection; Transatlantic Troubles
Some aggies are concerned that the Trump administration will impose a trade embargo against China if Beijing does not do more to stop North Korea’s nuclear...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With India's planted corn area down and production expected to be impacted by the effects of flooding and drought, several factors could limit any imports...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
NAFTA: The Ham and Tomatoes Round
A look at two politically-sensitive products under NAFTA.The second round of NAFTA negotiations finished last week, which could have been called the “ham a...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There were several developments this week that were of interest to both the markets and producers. Soybean export sales activity has been increasing rapid...
Market Commentary
Today's soybean export sales announcement didn’t change the market’s weaker start. Meanwhile, Minneapolis wheat futures came under more selling pressure af...
CETA to Squeeze EU Beef Market; Aussie Grain-Fed Beef; EU Net Beef Exporter
The drought in Australia during 2015 and the end of dairy production quotas in the EU are both having an impact on the global beef market. CETA to Squeeze...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume was not as impressive as the ability of the market to shrug off Tuesday’s bigger production numbers and move higher. After being a...
Oilseed Highlights: Late-Season U.S. Soybean Export Surge; Conflicting Forecasts for Chinese Soy Imports; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Lower Palm Oil Price Predicted
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
What Is Ahead For Soybeans?
The recovery by soybean futures prices from their immediate post-WASDE loss this week and the subsequent move higher seem to hint that something is going o...
Attacking Agencies; Delayed Justice; Crashing MC XI
Agriculture has historically been a cooperative sector where differences are negotiated. However, just as the food sector has become more complex, the agen...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports to Asian countries hit a record in August versus the same month a year ago. Meanwhile, there has been a change in Syria...
Trade Policy Conundrum; Bipartisan Tax Time; Target India
A meeting of U.S. aggies to discuss the renegotiation of NAFTA involved much focus on the net benefits of trade agreements and what is disliked about the c...
Market Commentary
Prices of corn, soybeans and wheat traded both sides of Tuesday’s closes before winding up with small gains by the early morning recess. The day session fo...
China In-Country Analysis
The fortunes of domestic soybean processors have steadily improved as the average crush margin grew RMB 4/MT ($0.62/MT) to RMB 103/MT ($15.84/MT) last week...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights: USDA Soy Data; Flooding in Argentina
There were some significant changes in today's WASDE estimates for the soybean sector, and flooding in a key province of Argentina will likely impact plant...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
USDA and other international agencies are working in Pakistan to address an issue with the wheat crop there. Meanwhile, a recent study indicates maize-prod...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Low Hope on Food to China; Price ≈ Quality
China has the largest trade surplus against the U.S. of any country, and it feeds into American animosity toward the Middle Kingdom. Low Hope on Food to Ch...
WASDE Soybeans
China's soybean demand, combined with the U.S. and South American supply situation, offer insights into the coming supply/demand dynamics. USDA's updates t...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA's updates to the U.S., Argentine, and Brazilian soyoil export situation, combined with changes to China's and Southeast Asia's import forecast, hold i...
WASDE Soymeal
Updates to the U.S., Argentine, and Brazilian soyoil export situation, combined with USDA's changes to China's and Southeast Asia's import forecast, hold i...
Market Commentary
If there is a surprising market reaction to the September WASDE, it can be found in Chicago and KC wheat futures that mostly closed around 7 cents higher d...
WASDE Wheat
The U.S. wheat export picture is changing again with the USDA's latest figures. The agency's updates to the U.S. and world wheat balance sheets offer impor...
Harvey Leads to Higher Gas Prices and Policy Waivers
The Trump administration has reacted to the disruption of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma with a temporary waiver of a statute long opposed by the ag sector and...
WASDE Corn
USDA's latest supply/demand estimates for the world's most prevalent feed grain are analyzed and the most pertinent results shown in graphical form. Histor...
The September WASDE
For the second month in a row, the 2017 U.S. corn and soybean yield/production estimates from USDA/NASS surprised the great majority of private analysts an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
USDA Report Preview
Many in the trade are still skeptical that the corn and soybean yields can be as big as the August estimates and pre-report estimates for the September rep...
Energy Fallout; Farm Support Fallout; Reap What You Sow
The prospects for a WTO agreement on further capping domestic agricultural supports at this December’s ministerial meeting are quite slim. Meanwhile, the p...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets started mostly steady Sunday evening, but wheat prices weakened throughout the night and continued that trend this morning. Trade...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The milling wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria is notably quiet as farmers prefer to keep the rest of their production in hope of higher prices later. Ho...
Amendment to Clip Crop Insurance Introduced in Senate
Crop insurance is under fire after making up for the losses of a few years ago - just in time for a record hurricane season to hit.As last reported (see Ag...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
For corn, Argentina still needs to put on program for October and December, but demand is not ready to buy at the current premiums. If this continues, it c...
Market Commentary
Corn futures traded slightly higher much of the day, but there was zero excitement with relatively light volume. All three wheat markets were also higher m...
Congress Passes Major Fiscal Package
The House followed the Senate in passing a bill that funded the government, provided hurricane relief and addressed the debt limit. However, this is only a...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Markets in Neutral
Neutral is an interesting word that means nothing’s happening, which aptly describes this week's futures market action. Next Tuesday’s USDA reports could i...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Market/trade reports indicate India's soybean crop this year could be 10 percent less because of the smaller planted area as well as the water damage...
Calling the Kettle Black; Beyond Belief; Harvey to Working with Dems
U.S. ethanol groups are hugely upset that Brazil has imposed import safeguards against their products and that China has gotten into large-scale production...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw firmer prices in the soy complex as short covering continued. Grain prices stayed close to unchanged. Early in the day session, buyin...
The Waiting Game
For now, it is a waiting game for the fall harvests. However, there can be (and are) plenty of differing opinions concerning the status of crops in the U.S...
July Export Data; Pork Slaughter Capacity; From Harvey to Irma
Pork slaughter capacity grew this week more than in any previous single year as the pace of pork exports is trending differently than in 2016. Meanwhile, t...
Socially Amok; GI Amok; Regionalization; BRICS’ Challenge
Those consternated over the EU’s Greenpeace-driven GMO policy should note the current slippery slope experience in Brussels over biofuel policy. Socially A...
Oilseed Highlights: Vietnam and U.S. DDGS; Brazil Soybean Export Forecast; Canadian Canola Stocks; The EU and Argentine Biodiesel
The U.S. Trade Representative’s office indicates the government of Vietnam has addressed the issue of U.S. DDGS imports, and the EU is taking action on the...
China In-Country Analysis
The nationwide domestic corn price rose just RMB 1/MT ($0.15/MT) to RMB 1,664/MT ($252.47/MT) last week. Meanwhile, the estimated average utilization rate...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Prices across the board retreated a modest 1-3 cents overnight from yesterday’s higher closes, and trading seemed equally subdued after it resumed in the d...
Self-Imposed Work; Stacking the Table; Acute Famine; Wait, There’s More
There are complaints that Canada’s increasing demands in the NAFTA renegotiations will drag the talks into 2018, an election year in both the U.S. and Mexi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture confirmed its conservative grain production forecast as the harvest in some regions may be impacted by certain conditio...
Korean Crisis; RCEP Reality; Markup Opportunity; USDA Picks
The U.S. agriculture sector was in crisis mode over the Labor Day holiday weekend after Donald Trump said he would decide quickly on his inclination to wit...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Bolivian Soybeans to China; EU Oilseed Production; Thai Soy Imports; Indian Vegoil Imports
The government of Bolivia has reached an agreement with China that is aimed at boosting its exports to that country. However, it faces one certain challeng...
A Mix of Bullish Influences
Aside from seasonal considerations, there are plenty of other outside influences in play that can move grain and soy futures prices, mainly higher in the s...
It’s Baaaaaack!
Congress is back after recess and facing a daunting schedule through December, which could even include the 2018 Farm Bill.After the traditional August rec...
Market Commentary
Trading in grain and soy complex futures resumed Monday evening, and prices began to firm after a hesitant start. More of the same prevailed during the day...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt has released an announcement regarding the allowance of 13.5 percent moisture in wheat instead of 13 percent that had been put in place to allow Fren...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
According to a recent report, India’s broiler industry is on a growth path in 2017/18. However, it is also under immense pressure from various sources as n...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Big Changes since the 5 July RFS Proposal
The comment period is closed for the 2018 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes, and the EPA must consider the results of a trade case against biodiesel im...
Market Commentary
Corn struggled to hold even minor gains overnight and today, and it was under the most pressure, probably due to the release of two private crop estimates...
Unbeatable Combination; 800-Pound Gorilla; Hopeful; About Harvey
Some members of the European Parliament are expressing concern that the adoption of precision agriculture and other new technologies will widen the divide...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There were several developments and stories in the news this week that could have future market implications. Stats Canada released its initial production...
Hurricane Harvey and Cattle; China and U.S. Beef; USDA and the Dairy Program
It will take quite some time to determine the impact of Hurricane Harvey on cattle as well as that of U.S. beef exports to China. Meanwhile, USDA has chang...
Market Commentary
Well, it finally happened! There was a broad-based rally of grain and soy prices across the board with one exception. Overnight trade was slow with low vol...
Possible Argentine-U.S. Deal to Avert Biodiesel Countervailing Duties?
Now would appear to be a good time for the Trump administration to consider offering Argentina a deal to avert imposition of the CVDs by agreeing to take a...
More Tales from Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Macron Goes Political; Ag Power at EPA; Fruit & Vegetable Value?
In contrast to the French goal of being leader on environmental matters, U.S. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt made a short genuflection to the agriculture s...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Leaving Never Good; Non-Price Factors; Taxing Imports
Donald Trump has threatened three times this week to pull the U.S. out of NAFTA, but the Mexicans have a rebuttal. Separately, there are now undesired cons...
China In-Country Analysis
One particular price development helped hold the crushing margin in China relatively steady last week as the average return came in at RMB 76/MT ($11.40/MT...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices for all crops on the Russian grain market plummeted with one exception. Meanwhile, Ukrainian milling wheat and feed grain prices followed global mar...
Market Commentary
Trading overnight and again during the day session were similar, while flooding from the heaviest storm-related rainfall ever to hit the continental U.S. h...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Flooding; Large U.S. Soy Inspections; Revised Forecasts for Brazil’s Soy Planted Area and India’s Soy Crop
Flooding once again threatens Argentine agriculture as it has slowed the harvesting and planting of two different crops, but another could also be af...
Will Wheat Market Blues Ever End?
If smaller U.S. supplies and a smaller carryout cannot stop the long-term U.S. wheat markets’ bearishness, it is fair to ask what can. Some potentially imp...
More Misinformed; Fueled Problems
Mark Twain famously said, “If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.” Spin forward to today, and t...
Market Commentary
When summertime grain markets are weak due to perceptions of large crops and abundant supplies, they typically find seasonal lows during the last days of A...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A Saudi consortium is said to be investing as much as $500 million in the redevelopment of 25,000 acres in one country along with what is said will be the...
Will Hurricane Harvey Lead to E15?
Could the policy response to the energy market disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey include E15, at least temporarily?Hurricane Harvey will be the first...
Market Commentary
Hurricane Harvey is creating export challenges, but robust yield estimates keep pressuring grain and oilseed futures. The cattle and hog markets took diver...
Overproduction Support; Canadian Walls
Donald Trump has made clear that he wants to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, but today the U.S. and Mexican dairy industries decided that one need...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American soybean prices moved lower last week, prompting U.S. exporters to take steps to remain competitive. Meanwhile, Argentine corn exporters are...
A Tough August for Corn Growers
Several factors were responsible for the corn market's August meltdown as funds were caught leaning the wrong way. Farmers and others who had been at least...
Crop Insurance Under Fire
The federal crop insurance program is coming under fire as a new GAO study and a filed amendment for the pending ag appropriations bill both propose cuts t...
Pot Calls Kettle Black; Dangerous GMOs
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, speaking at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual policy meeting in Jackson Hole, gave warning against protection...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
The State of U.S. Wheat’s Competitiveness
It seems like a very long time since U.S. wheat, particularly hard red winter (HRW), was competitive in world markets, and there are many reasons why. Howe...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
In the past two years, India's poultry sector has had limited growth for reasons such as higher input prices (feed), low live chicken prices and overproduc...
Market Commentary
This was somewhat of a strange trading day, much like one before a USDA report. The market wanted to see the Farm Journal (Pro Farmer) Crop Tour’s corn and...
Debt Limit Rhetoric in Context
There has been a great deal of news coverage as well as tweeting about the debt limit and what is at stake before the end of September when the situation w...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Biodiesel CVDs and U.S. Soy Crushers; Soy Export Sales; Crop Tour Update
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Market Commentary
Grain and soybean futures were slightly firmer in quiet and choppy overnight trading, and price action during the day session was mixed. The changes in ope...
Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Broken or Wrong; Dangerous or Effective; Wrong Worry
President Trump is peculiarly threatening a shutdown to extort funding out of Congress for his wall on the border with Mexico. However, that threat is flaw...
Investors and Speculators
It may be appropriate and relatively easy to distinguish between investors and speculators in financial markets. However, no matter how the terms are defin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Trump Bluster Bust; Countervailings; Underwhelming
Donald Trump proclaiming this week that he doubts a good NAFTA update can be negotiated and that he’ll “end up probably terminating” the agreement is a sha...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's rapeseed exports showed a notable change in MY 2016/17. Meanwhile, Ukrainian milling wheat prices began to fall, mainly because of the revised USD...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Commerce Dept.'s announcement late yesterday of countervailing duties against biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia was the dominant news...
China In-Country Analysis
With the new harvest quickly approaching, the market for previous years’ corn continues to experience downward pressure. However, there is also anoth...
Market Commentary
U.S. wheat supplies for 2017/18 may be down 25 percent or more, but USDA’s August forecast that world ending 2017/18 wheat supplies will climb to more than...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Egyptian Company for Agriculture and Rural Development (ECARD), a government agency, will restart its contract growing program with the main focus on o...
U.S. Commerce Department Rules Against Argentine, Indonesian Biodiesel
The DOC ruling puts pressure on U.S. biodiesel production for the remainder of the year.Today the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) announced its prelimina...
The Great Yield Debate of 2017
If there was one area of agreement for nearly all crop watchers, it would be that this year’s mixed-up and adverse weather made it very unlikely that 2017...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian and Argentine Soy Crop Forecasts; Zimbabwean Soybeans; Peruvian Fish Meal; Canadian Canola
The drought that has substantially impacted the Dakotas and Montana this year has also been severe elsewhere. Now there is growing concern that output of a...
Food Fairness; Investigating is Legal; Ignominious Award
As the EU pursues a public comment period on the fairness of the food value chain, there are plenty of pitfalls ahead. Food Fairness As the EU pursues a pu...
Bulls Take Cover
Corn, soybean and wheat futures markets continued in full retreat today to start the fourth consecutive week of lower prices. All of this bearishness has l...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
EU wheat farmers from the Baltic States to Romania and Bulgaria refuse to sell at the equivalent of Russian and Ukrainian price levels in hope of doing so...
Will the Ethanol Sector Consolidate Next Year?
Looking at the ethanol sector, it is the classic good news/bad news scenario with the former coming in the short term and the latter occurring over the nex...
Selective Precaution; NAFTA Ambition
Nearly every global scientific organization has endorsed the safety of agricultural biotechnology. When activists invented scare stories, though, the EU wa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian soybeans traded at $1.70X CNF for September at the beginning of the week and moved as high as $1.81X for the same position. On the FOB market, Br...
Market Commentary
The wheat, corn and soybeans found no support to start the week with all three markets starting lower Sunday evening. Yield reports from Russia continue to...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
December corn futures got within a nickel of last August’s (2016) low. Some technical traders see that as the final downside objective. Meanwhile, the mark...
Can Technology Play a Role in Organic Production?
This week the National Organic Standards Board discussed emerging ag production systems and their role in organic agriculture – just as they have since 200...
Oilseed Highlights: Surging U.S. Soybean Exports; Soy Export Sales; Brazilian Army to Pave Key Highway
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The sowing of some key commodities is down, and the major crops affected include pulses, coarse cereals and corn. There are two reasons for this, and it wi...
Thoughts from a Montana Farmer
The spring wheat harvest is quickly winding down, and a large farmer from eastern Montana recently sent some comments about his crop and what he (and his n...
Trade Progress; Bannon’s Meaning; Survey Says
It is difficult to offset the loss of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to U.S. agriculture, but this week showed several successful outcomes from the Tr...
NAFTA Renegotiation Begins
In the U.S., there have been winners and losers under NAFTA, much as there have been in Mexico and Canada. That is the nature of trade. Perhaps the biggest...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Weather has returned as the driver for soybean futures prices since recent rains missed the very dry parts of Iowa and central Illinois. Meabwhile, funds c...
Fake FTA News; Poop Data
The truth is, there is nothing unique about the U.S.-Chile FTA. Trade agreements affect trade flows, but they cannot fully explain trade balances. Fake FTA...
Exports Up in First Half of 2017; EPA-Proposed Biofuel Rule Hints at Changing DDGS in the Future
Exports helped both beef and pork maintain strong prices so far in 2017 despite supply increases, and the EPA-proposed biofuel rule hints at potential chan...
NAFTA Reality; Farming Reality
Many of those starting up small and local farms are first-time farmers, but it is a fad that is unlikely to last for economic and labor reasons. NAFTA Real...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Its grain exports are higher than a year ago as Russia completes a project in the Kerch Straight that will limit the size of vessels transporting car...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
Two developments last week caused China's estimated average crush margin to rise sharply to RMB 108/MT ($16.20/MT), an improvement of RMB 111/MT ($16.66/MT...
Market Commentary
Follow-through selling pushed grain and soy prices slightly lower early in the overnight session, but enough buying returned to the technically oversold ma...
NAFTA Hot Spots; S&D Duh!
As NAFTA renegotiations get underway this week, there is plenty of eye poking occurring. Meanwhile, the GAO investigated the compliance of U.S. food aid pr...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soybeans; Ukraine’s Soy Exports; Biodiesel Dumping Case, India’s Vegoil Imports
Officials in Argentina have determined the average protein content of the country’s 2017 soybean crop is below the 20-year average for the fourth year in a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Post-Report Questions
The fact that the August WASDE pictured crop prospects in the U.S. and elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere as being generally better than private analysts...
Market Commentary
Reverberations from last Thursday’s bearish WASDE together with the since-added prospects for rain over a good portion of the central U.S., including the v...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenya’s National Biosafety Authority (NBA) has announced that field trials for GM maize and cotton will start in October 2017, which is contrary to the eff...
Wheat Price Collapse Hurts Three Ways
The crop revenue insurance guarantees are a very important part of a farmer’s decision-making process, and the collapse in wheat futures markets in August...
Rhetoric = Trade War
Last week the Trump administration announced it would investigate aluminum imports, and today it added China’s relative protection of intellectual property...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Cotton Wants Back in Title I of Farm Bill
Farm income data shows that cotton has been a volatile market, and the industry is pressing to get back into Title I of the next farm bill.While the farm b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn markets are still having some harvest pressure. Prices didn't move downward as expected, and exporters are still paying 2,500 ARS/MT (above $140/M...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The quality of French milling wheat is higher than normal with average protein around 12 percent, but exports are lagging quite a bit this year becau...
Market Commentary
The downdraft in wheat, corn and soybean prices continued Sunday evening and into today. The 10 August bearish USDA production estimates and the bearish te...
Do Markets Care about North Korea’s Nukes?
Kim Jong-Un doesn’t place much faith in capitalism or markets, but those markets’ performance this week indicate their own view of North Korea’s emerging n...
Death’s Recovery; Reverse Engineering; Wrong Again; North Korea
European food makers are finding out what some American brands like Sunkist learned many years ago – the Chinese will steal the names of your products. Dea...
Market Commentary
The markets stabilized overnight on decent volume following yesterday’s bearish USDA reports and subsequent price collapse. The Minneapolis wheat market th...
USDA Reports Humbling
The lesson from yesterday is one that keeps being repeated, which is that USDA reports can be very humbling. Most were left scratching their heads in disbe...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As the GM food debate in India continues, the supply and demand gap, especially of vegetable oil, is widening, and farmers are losing money due to pest att...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
One-Way Pattern; GMOs Worse than CAFOs; Sweet Elasticity
U.S. exports of ethanol to Brazil are up 80 percent, and industry groups there have been demanding a tax be placed on the imports from America. Washington...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
The August 2017 WASDE
This month’s WASDE has maintained the August edition’s well-earned reputation for producing market-moving surprises.In a market sense, bullish and bearish...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was quiet (as expected) with corn and wheat prices near unchanged, while soybean prices crept a few cents higher in low volume. A quick gla...
Oilseed Highlights
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has informed Arcadia Biosciences and Bioceres S.A. that it has completed review of the HB4 stress-tolerant soybean,...
WASDE; Japan Says No
Today’s WASDE report shows overall animal protein production revised upward for the year, and Japan imposes safeguard tariffs on frozen beef for the first...
Water versus Climate Change; Blocking Imports; Wheying Yogurt Name
The Trump administration talks a tough game on trade. When it comes to protectionism, though, it is other countries that are taking real action. Water vers...
China In-Country Analysis
With the corn harvest season in its southern region around the corner and downstream demand flagging, the average domestic corn price in China fell RMB 11/...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While Russia's corn prices were on the rise, Ukraine's remained steady. Meanwhile, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports to one country have been notably higher...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trading during both the overnight and day sessions was muted by a lack of any enthusiasm and very low trading volume. Part of the mar...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Record Chinese Soy Imports; Containerized Soy Shipments; Brazilian Rail; Shooting Fire-Setters
U.S. soybean exports via containers have been exceptionally strong this year, almost all destined to Asia with the key markets being Taiwan, Indonesia, Tha...
Market Commentary
Trading was subdued with the August WASDE looming Thursday at noon (EDT). There is a general sense that traders are seeking to lower risk exposure going in...
Brazil May Impose TRQ on Ethanol Imports
The Brazilian Foreign Trade Council (Camex) may place a TRQ on ethanol imports in the next two weeks that will impact U.S. ethanol producers.It is nothing...
Speculating About the August WASDE
It has been largely overlooked amidst all the focus on the U.S. corn and soybean crop prospects, but the August WASDE is likely to also contain some other...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt reports that the country’s foreign exchange reserves are at the highest level since before the 2011 Arab Spring, reaching $36.0 billion, and that the...
Fairness Vewed Broadly; Toxic or Benign; Killer AC
In an effort to stall participation in a “special session” with the U.S. over the terms of the current free trade agreement, South Korea is arguing that it...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Dicamba – New Soybean Issue?
The Dicamba soybean is the latest (and hoped to be the next greatest) soybean seed/chemical combination, resistant to the broadleaf killer of the same name...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There were no trades on the Argentine soybean market last week, but offers remained around 40sX for September FOB and traded just today at +44sX FOB. Local...
Market Commentary
Markets started Sunday evening with small gains, and that’s the way they traded the entire night session in light volume. Wheat was then a reluctant follow...
Misnamed and Misinformed; Fair is Fair
The Organization for Competitive Markets (OCM) has a nice ring to its name. Like so much else in politics, though, its goal is quite to the contrary. Misna...
NAFTA Talks, Biofuels Trade Decision and Congress In Pro Forma Session This August
August is usually slow in the nation’s capital as lawmakers all leave town for the traditional recess. This year the schedule for the month is focused on t...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
More Pain
The grain market news this week seemed to be full of more stories of financial woe and disappointment at the upper levels of the industry.The grain market...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is set on fulfilling its fuel blending mandate and has plans to achieve up to 20 percent ethanol blending in the near future. However, there are seve...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally mixed to end this volatile, negative week that saw soybeans losing nearly 50 cents, corn a dime and wheat 10-20 cents. Both corn and...
Commodity Outlook; Internet and Innovation Inequality
Americans file four times as many patent applications as do Europeans, and part of the reason is a contrast in attitude. Commodity Price Outlook Consumer p...
No Change to Biofuel Point of Obligation
Last year the EPA denied a petition to change the point of obligation on biofuels compliance but opened a comment period to consider the issue further. In...
No Room for Mercosur Beef in the EU; 2018 Domestic Meat Consumption; Pork Producers Support the EPA
This week the EPA asked the U.S. Court of Appeals to delay enforcement of a reporting requirment that had been previously exempted, and the National Pork P...
Why 2017/18 Will Be Different
A number of developing factors over the past several weeks suggest that the 2017/18 crop cycle will be different across the globe.Major common threads for...
Trade Policy Roundup
Canada does not want to give up its supply management programs for dairy and poultry in the NAFTA 2.0 negotiations, and now it reportedly also wants to mai...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean/Corn Crop Forecasts: Better U.S. Soy Export Sales; FDA Approves Soyoil Health Claim
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Selling pressure in overnight trading continued during the day session with November soybeans plunging as much as 22 cents to $9.555, finally filling the o...
Market Commentary
The overnight session started out with carryover selling pushing grain and soy prices slightly lower, but bargain hunter buyers soon showed up to move pric...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's grain exports reportedly set a new record in 2016/17, and its milling wheat prices started to drop last week on the domestic market due to the gr...
China In-Country Analysis
With the volume of imported soybeans remaining high and arrivals of new shipments continuing at a strong pace, China’s estimated soymeal inventory ha...
Free Trade and Protectionism; Retail Shakeout and Commodities
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross likely tired of hearing the U.S. labeled as protectionist and responded to critics via the Wall Street Journal. He char...
Opposite than Expected Tacks; Ugly Answer; Biofuel Sleight of Hand
China’s Vice Commerce Minister Qian Keming warned the Trump administration against mixing trade policy with the issue of North Korea’s security threats. Op...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenyan farmers are saying that the extended duty-free maize import period will make large volumes of those low-cost stocks available when the local crop is...
A Few Comments That Come to Mind
It is difficult to recall a growing season in the U.S. with as much uncertainty as in 2017. Meanwhile, one potential factor in determining how this year's...
Market Commentary
It seemed to be a “get me out” market in the soy complex today as long liquidation dominated trade. Getting out involved outright selling of long positions...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Soy Crop; Russian Oilseeds; Chinese and Argentine Soy Crush
The Russian government has strongly encouraged farmers to plant more oilseeds in recent years to reduce the need for imports and increase exports, and they...
Plans for the 2017 Farm Bill Defy Odds
Congress hasn’t passed a farm bill on schedule since 1990, and now the agriculture committees want to pass the next one early.Congress hasn’t passed a farm...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian market was slow last week as one factor pushed basis higher. Farmers were not selling soybeans, and demand was focused only on the spot for A...
Weather Threats Soften
Ten days ago, virtually every weather outlook for August looked threatening. However, changes in weather models that started last week have softened the ma...
Spade a Spade; Biofuel Bias; Less Food
Elmar Baumann of the Association of the German Biofuel Industry warns in Euractiv that the EU’s RED II policy change is designed to fail. The assumption is...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Romania for 12 pro (GASC quality) milling wheat remained about unchanged during the past two weeks and is offered at $195/MT FOB. Farmers the...
Court Rules Against the EPA on RFS Waiver
There is more chaos for the RFS after a Federal Court rules the EPA’s 2016 waiver of ethanol volumes to avoid the 10 percent blend wall was invalid under t...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower Sunday night on confirmation of a dry but cooler weather outlook across the Corn Belt and northern Plains. Funds then began the day with...
S&D Inseparable; Haggard Haggerty; Bullish Outlook
Under economics, supply and demand are intricately related. However, the U.S. Congress practices politics and not economics. S&D Inseparable Under econ...
Flawed Spring Wheat Tour
The 2017 spring wheat tour was held this week with the results released yesterday, but it overlooked two key elements.The 2017 spring wheat tour was held t...
Ag Review: Geopolitics and the Black Sea
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
The market still isn’t ready to decide whether the general dryness over the western Corn Belt and northern Plains is enough to reduce corn yields to more b...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s rice exports have been lower in 2016/17, but its non-basmati varieties are expected to do better in 2017/18 and find a market in Bangladesh as well...
Foodie Movement Focuses on Ending Food Waste
New policy initiatives to curb food waste are likely to be part of the new farm bill. Depending how far these efforts go, some big changes to long-standing...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Chicken to China; Drought in Cattle Country; Fat Rules
Lawmakers want to export U.S. broilers to China, and drought is helping liquidate the cattle herd. Meanwhile, dietary fat is in fashion again while still o...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Global Soyoil Consumption Growth
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Fundamental Food Economics; Australia/New Zealand Frustrations
Australia and New Zealand do not practice perfect market economics, but their agricultural policies can be better than many others. Fundamental Food Econom...
A Different Year Ahead
The global abundance of agricultural crops during the past four years is unprecedented and ultimately unsustainable. Change is inevitable, and it now clear...
Market Commentary
The whipsaw weather and the seeming inability of the GFS weather model to provide accurate forecasts continue to frustrate futures traders. Soybean futures...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has suggested a trade-related way to decrease the storage expense for grain held by the State Intervention Fund. Meanwh...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. sorghum prices are still quite competitive in China despite the transition there to a more fundamental supply and demand market system, and another fa...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures found prices on both sides early and then gradually climbing above Tuesday’s closes as selling interest waned. For...
Stealing Steel Jobs; Spearing Subsidies; Disruptive Agriculture
Business groups and trading partners are encouraging the Trump administration to back away from imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports under Sectio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
A Roll of the Dice on Crop Yields
The French Rivera meets the Midwest: Monte Carlo simulations of U.S. corn and soybean yields.The world’s most famous casino, the Monte Carlo along the Fren...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Smaller Soybean Production Forecast for Three Countries with a Larger One Expected Elsewhere
Three countries are expected to reduce their soybean planted areas in favor of other crops, but another is forecast to increase its production of the oilse...
Broad Imaginations
If Donald Trump’s rhetoric matched reality, protectionism would be at an all-time high. Indeed, the warnings that U.S. imposition of Section 232 duties on...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat rallies are likely over, while soybean futures may have more potential. Traders are watching fall hog supplies with suspicion, and the Cattl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey is reported to be the destination for about 95 percent of all Ukrainian wheat bran exports in the first 11 months of MY 2016/17. Meanwhile, there ar...
E15 Bill Stalls in Senate
Legislation to approve E15 runs into opposition as the gap between ethanol production and consumption continues to widen.The Senate Environment and Public...
June Cattle Placements Set Bearish Trend
USDA’s latest beef cattle supply data could be a harbinger of bearish cattle prices into the third quarter of next year.USDA released its monthly Cattle on...
Controversial Clovis; New Rice Market; Ignoring Facts
This is a good year for U.S. rice as China has moved forward on an approval process for buying it, and now the Nikkei reports that Japanese consumers are b...
2016 Farm Income Numbers
A survey of one program's Red River Valley farm clients’ 2016 financial results provided some interesting points, but that data will likely be quite differ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
More corn in the domestic market and a weaker Argentine peso helped send local prices lower by AR200/MT ($10/MT), which is good news for certain exporters...
Market Commentary
Friday’s weak closes coupled with a major flip-flop in weather forecasts over the weekend brought more sellers to the markets Sunday night and this morning...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Cotton War; Org Mistake; Italy First; Deadly Friteries; Campbell Gamble
The Senate Appropriations Committee not only ignored the agricultural budget cuts recommended by the White House, but it ordered USDA Secretary Sonny Purdu...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn has been a golden grain for the farmers in most states, but lower prices during harvest and higher ones for other crops may induce them to shift to mo...
Senate Ag Appropriations Bill Makes Down Payment on Farm Bill
The Senate ag appropriations bill includes funding and reform proposals for two programs that will help make the farm bill slightly easier to craft next ye...
Market Commentary
The corn and soybean markets were both bearish today on the overnight rains that were better than expected. Spring wheat futures were again soft, and some...
Drought Impact
The northern Plains drought is worsening, and the spring wheat market has reflected part of the severity and lost production. There is one element, though,...
Nice Rice Deal; Good USDA Team
The previously rumored key management team at USDA has now been formally nominated and thus headed for consideration in the Senate. Nice Rice Deal The Trum...
Cattle on Feed Report; Ag Appropriations Bill Identifies Meat-Related Issues
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Global Soymeal Demand Growth in 2017/18
It is useful to occasionally take a look at the USDA forecast for growth in various commodities over the next year. This provides an understanding of where...
Market Commentary
More hot, dry weather emboldened bulls at the CBOT today. WPI’s future-implied crop yield models hold different outlooks for corn versus soybeans. General...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Atypical Response; Europe First; Science versus Politics; Digital Fears
In response to an atypical case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in an 11-year old Alabama cow, one U.S. trading partner said it will deny access...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices on the Russian grain market kept growing overall, influenced by rising demand from one segment. Meanwhile, oilseed processors in Ukraine's central r...
Market Commentary
A sort of daily trading pattern has developed for grain and soy futures in recent days, which could be tied to the daily U.S. GFS and EU weather models in...
China In-Country Analysis
One significant factor is going to raise operating costs for the deep corn processing industry in China's northern and northeastern regions, and that will...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
NAFTA Objectives; Cotton Subsidies; GMO Transparency; Crooked Pointing
The White House released its negotiating objectives for NAFTA modernization, and there were mixed reactions. NAFTA Objectives Analyzed The White House rele...
Breaking Down U.S. Wheat Classes
While traders had become accustomed to a world wheat market dominated by other origins, the U.S. wheat crop in 2017 has drawn more market attention than du...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s rather placid grain and soy futures trade was replaced by a return of the weather market overnight. Most prices for corn, wheat and soybeans qu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
While South Africa has its biggest maize crop in about forty years and will once again be an exporter, it will have difficulty shipping to some maize-starv...
House Budget Committee to Consider Budget Tomorrow
The House budget resolution has no specific instructions in the reconciliation package regarding spending cuts to farm and nutrition programs nor suggested...