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The September WASDE

For the second month in a row, the 2017 U.S. corn and soybean yield/production estimates from USDA/NASS surprised the great majority of private analysts an...

WASDE Soybeans

China's soybean demand, combined with the U.S. and South American supply situation, offer insights into the coming supply/demand dynamics. USDA's updates t...

WASDE Corn

USDA's latest supply/demand estimates for the world's most prevalent feed grain are analyzed and the most pertinent results shown in graphical form. Histor...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The milling wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria is notably quiet as farmers prefer to keep the rest of their production in hope of higher prices later. Ho...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

USDA Report Preview

Many in the trade are still skeptical that the corn and soybean yields can be as big as the August estimates and pre-report estimates for the September rep...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

For corn, Argentina still needs to put on program for October and December, but demand is not ready to buy at the current premiums. If this continues, it c...

Energy Fallout; Farm Support Fallout; Reap What You Sow

The prospects for a WTO agreement on further capping domestic agricultural supports at this December’s ministerial meeting are quite slim. Meanwhile, the p...

Amendment to Clip Crop Insurance Introduced in Senate

Crop insurance is under fire after making up for the losses of a few years ago - just in time for a record hurricane season to hit.As last reported (see Ag...

Market Commentary

Grain and oilseed markets started mostly steady Sunday evening, but wheat prices weakened throughout the night and continued that trend this morning. Trade...

Market Commentary

Corn futures traded slightly higher much of the day, but there was zero excitement with relatively light volume. All three wheat markets were also higher m...

Calling the Kettle Black; Beyond Belief; Harvey to Working with Dems

U.S. ethanol groups are hugely upset that Brazil has imposed import safeguards against their products and that China has gotten into large-scale production...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

 Market/trade reports indicate India's soybean crop this year could be 10 percent less because of the smaller planted area as well as the water damage...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Congress Passes Major Fiscal Package

The House followed the Senate in passing a bill that funded the government, provided hurricane relief and addressed the debt limit. However, this is only a...

Markets in Neutral

Neutral is an interesting word that means nothing’s happening, which aptly describes this week's futures market action. Next Tuesday’s USDA reports could i...

The Waiting Game

For now, it is a waiting game for the fall harvests. However, there can be (and are) plenty of differing opinions concerning the status of crops in the U.S...

July Export Data; Pork Slaughter Capacity; From Harvey to Irma

Pork slaughter capacity grew this week more than in any previous single year as the pace of pork exports is trending differently than in 2016. Meanwhile, t...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw firmer prices in the soy complex as short covering continued. Grain prices stayed close to unchanged. Early in the day session, buyin...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Socially Amok; GI Amok; Regionalization; BRICS’ Challenge

Those consternated over the EU’s Greenpeace-driven GMO policy should note the current slippery slope experience in Brussels over biofuel policy. Socially A...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

China In-Country Analysis

The nationwide domestic corn price rose just RMB 1/MT ($0.15/MT) to RMB 1,664/MT ($252.47/MT) last week. Meanwhile, the estimated average utilization rate...

Market Commentary

Prices across the board retreated a modest 1-3 cents overnight from yesterday’s higher closes, and trading seemed equally subdued after it resumed in the d...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture confirmed its conservative grain production forecast as the harvest in some regions may be impacted by certain conditio...

A Mix of Bullish Influences

Aside from seasonal considerations, there are plenty of other outside influences in play that can move grain and soy futures prices, mainly higher in the s...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Egypt has released an announcement regarding the allowance of 13.5 percent moisture in wheat instead of 13 percent that had been put in place to allow Fren...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Market Commentary

Trading in grain and soy complex futures resumed Monday evening, and prices began to firm after a hesitant start. More of the same prevailed during the day...

Korean Crisis; RCEP Reality; Markup Opportunity; USDA Picks

The U.S. agriculture sector was in crisis mode over the Labor Day holiday weekend after Donald Trump said he would decide quickly on his inclination to wit...

It’s Baaaaaack!

Congress is back after recess and facing a daunting schedule through December, which could even include the 2018 Farm Bill.After the traditional August rec...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Market Commentary

Corn struggled to hold even minor gains overnight and today, and it was under the most pressure, probably due to the release of two private crop estimates...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

According to a recent report, India’s broiler industry is on a growth path in 2017/18. However, it is also under immense pressure from various sources as n...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There were several developments and stories in the news this week that could have future market implications. Stats Canada released its initial production...

Unbeatable Combination; 800-Pound Gorilla; Hopeful; About Harvey

Some members of the European Parliament are expressing concern that the adoption of precision agriculture and other new technologies will widen the divide...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Big Changes since the 5 July RFS Proposal

The comment period is closed for the 2018 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes, and the EPA must consider the results of a trade case against biodiesel im...

Market Commentary

Well, it finally happened! There was a broad-based rally of grain and soy prices across the board with one exception. Overnight trade was slow with low vol...

Possible Argentine-U.S. Deal to Avert Biodiesel Countervailing Duties?

Now would appear to be a good time for the Trump administration to consider offering Argentina a deal to avert imposition of the CVDs by agreeing to take a...

Macron Goes Political; Ag Power at EPA; Fruit & Vegetable Value?

In contrast to the French goal of being leader on environmental matters, U.S. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt made a short genuflection to the agriculture s...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

More Tales from Export Sales

U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Prices for all crops on the Russian grain market plummeted with one exception. Meanwhile, Ukrainian milling wheat and feed grain prices followed global mar...

China In-Country Analysis

One particular price development helped hold the crushing margin in China relatively steady last week as the average return came in at RMB 76/MT ($11.40/MT...

Leaving Never Good; Non-Price Factors; Taxing Imports

Donald Trump has threatened three times this week to pull the U.S. out of NAFTA, but the Mexicans have a rebuttal. Separately, there are now undesired cons...

Market Commentary

Trading overnight and again during the day session were similar, while flooding from the heaviest storm-related rainfall ever to hit the continental U.S. h...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Will Wheat Market Blues Ever End?

If smaller U.S. supplies and a smaller carryout cannot stop the long-term U.S. wheat markets’ bearishness, it is fair to ask what can. Some potentially imp...

More Misinformed; Fueled Problems

Mark Twain famously said, “If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.” Spin forward to today, and t...

Market Commentary

When summertime grain markets are weak due to perceptions of large crops and abundant supplies, they typically find seasonal lows during the last days of A...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

A Saudi consortium is said to be investing as much as $500 million in the redevelopment of 25,000 acres in one country along with what is said will be the...

Will Hurricane Harvey Lead to E15?

Could the policy response to the energy market disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey include E15, at least temporarily?Hurricane Harvey will be the first...

Crop Insurance Under Fire

The federal crop insurance program is coming under fire as a new GAO study and a filed amendment for the pending ag appropriations bill both propose cuts t...

A Tough August for Corn Growers

Several factors were responsible for the corn market's August meltdown as funds were caught leaning the wrong way. Farmers and others who had been at least...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

Hurricane Harvey is creating export challenges, but robust yield estimates keep pressuring grain and oilseed futures. The cattle and hog markets took diver...

Overproduction Support; Canadian Walls

Donald Trump has made clear that he wants to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, but today the U.S. and Mexican dairy industries decided that one need...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

South American soybean prices moved lower last week, prompting U.S. exporters to take steps to remain competitive. Meanwhile, Argentine corn exporters are...

Debt Limit Rhetoric in Context

There has been a great deal of news coverage as well as tweeting about the debt limit and what is at stake before the end of September when the situation w...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

In the past two years, India's poultry sector has had limited growth for reasons such as higher input prices (feed), low live chicken prices and overproduc...

Market Commentary

This was somewhat of a strange trading day, much like one before a USDA report. The market wanted to see the Farm Journal (Pro Farmer) Crop Tour’s corn and...

Pot Calls Kettle Black; Dangerous GMOs

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, speaking at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual policy meeting in Jackson Hole, gave warning against protection...

The State of U.S. Wheat’s Competitiveness

It seems like a very long time since U.S. wheat, particularly hard red winter (HRW), was competitive in world markets, and there are many reasons why. Howe...

Market Commentary

Grain and soybean futures were slightly firmer in quiet and choppy overnight trading, and price action during the day session was mixed. The changes in ope...

Broken or Wrong; Dangerous or Effective; Wrong Worry

President Trump is peculiarly threatening a shutdown to extort funding out of Congress for his wall on the border with Mexico. However, that threat is flaw...

Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

Investors and Speculators

It may be appropriate and relatively easy to distinguish between investors and speculators in financial markets. However, no matter how the terms are defin...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

The U.S. Commerce Dept.'s announcement late yesterday of countervailing duties against biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia was the dominant news...

China In-Country Analysis

With the new harvest quickly approaching, the market for previous years’ corn continues to experience downward pressure. However, there is also anoth...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's rapeseed exports showed a notable change in MY 2016/17. Meanwhile, Ukrainian milling wheat prices began to fall, mainly because of the revised USD...

Trump Bluster Bust; Countervailings; Underwhelming

Donald Trump proclaiming this week that he doubts a good NAFTA update can be negotiated and that he’ll “end up probably terminating” the agreement is a sha...

The Great Yield Debate of 2017

If there was one area of agreement for nearly all crop watchers, it would be that this year’s mixed-up and adverse weather made it very unlikely that 2017...

Market Commentary

U.S. wheat supplies for 2017/18 may be down 25 percent or more, but USDA’s August forecast that world ending 2017/18 wheat supplies will climb to more than...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Food Fairness; Investigating is Legal; Ignominious Award

As the EU pursues a public comment period on the fairness of the food value chain, there are plenty of pitfalls ahead. Food Fairness As the EU pursues a pu...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The Egyptian Company for Agriculture and Rural Development (ECARD), a government agency, will restart its contract growing program with the main focus on o...

Will the Ethanol Sector Consolidate Next Year?

Looking at the ethanol sector, it is the classic good news/bad news scenario with the former coming in the short term and the latter occurring over the nex...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

EU wheat farmers from the Baltic States to Romania and Bulgaria refuse to sell at the equivalent of Russian and Ukrainian price levels in hope of doing so...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazilian soybeans traded at $1.70X CNF for September at the beginning of the week and moved as high as $1.81X for the same position. On the FOB market, Br...

Market Commentary

The wheat, corn and soybeans found no support to start the week with all three markets starting lower Sunday evening. Yield reports from Russia continue to...

Selective Precaution; NAFTA Ambition

Nearly every global scientific organization has endorsed the safety of agricultural biotechnology. When activists invented scare stories, though, the EU wa...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Bulls Take Cover

Corn, soybean and wheat futures markets continued in full retreat today to start the fourth consecutive week of lower prices. All of this bearishness has l...

Thoughts from a Montana Farmer

The spring wheat harvest is quickly winding down, and a large farmer from eastern Montana recently sent some comments about his crop and what he (and his n...

Trade Progress; Bannon’s Meaning; Survey Says

It is difficult to offset the loss of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to U.S. agriculture, but this week showed several successful outcomes from the Tr...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The sowing of some key commodities is down, and the major crops affected include pulses, coarse cereals and corn. There are two reasons for this, and it wi...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Can Technology Play a Role in Organic Production?

This week the National Organic Standards Board discussed emerging ag production systems and their role in organic agriculture – just as they have since 200...

Market Commentary

December corn futures got within a nickel of last August’s (2016) low. Some technical traders see that as the final downside objective. Meanwhile, the mark...

NAFTA Renegotiation Begins

In the U.S., there have been winners and losers under NAFTA, much as there have been in Mexico and Canada. That is the nature of trade. Perhaps the biggest...

Fake FTA News; Poop Data

The truth is, there is nothing unique about the U.S.-Chile FTA. Trade agreements affect trade flows, but they cannot fully explain trade balances. Fake FTA...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

Weather has returned as the driver for soybean futures prices since recent rains missed the very dry parts of Iowa and central Illinois. Meabwhile, funds c...

Market Commentary

Follow-through selling pushed grain and soy prices slightly lower early in the overnight session, but enough buying returned to the technically oversold ma...

China In-Country Analysis

Two developments last week caused China's estimated average crush margin to rise sharply to RMB 108/MT ($16.20/MT), an improvement of RMB 111/MT ($16.66/MT...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

 Its grain exports are higher than a year ago as Russia completes a project in the Kerch Straight that will limit the size of vessels transporting car...

NAFTA Reality; Farming Reality

Many of those starting up small and local farms are first-time farmers, but it is a fad that is unlikely to last for economic and labor reasons. NAFTA Real...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

Reverberations from last Thursday’s bearish WASDE together with the since-added prospects for rain over a good portion of the central U.S., including the v...

Post-Report Questions

The fact that the August WASDE pictured crop prospects in the U.S. and elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere as being generally better than private analysts...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Kenya’s National Biosafety Authority (NBA) has announced that field trials for GM maize and cotton will start in October 2017, which is contrary to the eff...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

NAFTA Hot Spots; S&D Duh!

As NAFTA renegotiations get underway this week, there is plenty of eye poking occurring. Meanwhile, the GAO investigated the compliance of U.S. food aid pr...

Rhetoric = Trade War

Last week the Trump administration announced it would investigate aluminum imports, and today it added China’s relative protection of intellectual property...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Wheat Price Collapse Hurts Three Ways

The crop revenue insurance guarantees are a very important part of a farmer’s decision-making process, and the collapse in wheat futures markets in August...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The quality of  French milling wheat is higher than normal with average protein around 12 percent, but exports are lagging quite a bit this year becau...

Cotton Wants Back in Title I of Farm Bill

Farm income data shows that cotton has been a volatile market, and the industry is pressing to get back into Title I of the next farm bill.While the farm b...

Market Commentary

The downdraft in wheat, corn and soybean prices continued Sunday evening and into today. The 10 August bearish USDA production estimates and the bearish te...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The corn markets are still having some harvest pressure. Prices didn't move downward as expected, and exporters are still paying 2,500 ARS/MT (above $140/M...

Do Markets Care about North Korea’s Nukes?

Kim Jong-Un doesn’t place much faith in capitalism or markets, but those markets’ performance this week indicate their own view of North Korea’s emerging n...

Death’s Recovery; Reverse Engineering; Wrong Again; North Korea

European food makers are finding out what some American brands like Sunkist learned many years ago – the Chinese will steal the names of your products. Dea...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As the GM food debate in India continues, the supply and demand gap, especially of vegetable oil, is widening, and farmers are losing money due to pest att...

Market Commentary

The markets stabilized overnight on decent volume following yesterday’s bearish USDA reports and subsequent price collapse. The Minneapolis wheat market th...

USDA Reports Humbling

The lesson from yesterday is one that keeps being repeated, which is that USDA reports can be very humbling. Most were left scratching their heads in disbe...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade was quiet (as expected) with corn and wheat prices near unchanged, while soybean prices crept a few cents higher in low volume. A quick gla...

One-Way Pattern; GMOs Worse than CAFOs; Sweet Elasticity

U.S. exports of ethanol to Brazil are up 80 percent, and industry groups there have been demanding a tax be placed on the imports from America. Washington...

Oilseed Highlights

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has informed Arcadia Biosciences and Bioceres S.A. that it has completed review of the HB4 stress-tolerant soybean,...

The August 2017 WASDE

This month’s WASDE has maintained the August edition’s well-earned reputation for producing market-moving surprises.In a market sense, bullish and bearish...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

WASDE; Japan Says No

Today’s WASDE report shows overall animal protein production revised upward for the year, and Japan imposes safeguard tariffs on frozen beef for the first...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Water versus Climate Change; Blocking Imports; Wheying Yogurt Name

The Trump administration talks a tough game on trade. When it comes to protectionism, though, it is other countries that are taking real action. Water vers...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While Russia's corn prices were on the rise, Ukraine's remained steady. Meanwhile, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports to one country have been notably higher...

China In-Country Analysis

With the corn harvest season in its southern region around the corner and downstream demand flagging, the average domestic corn price in China fell RMB 11/...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures trading during both the overnight and day sessions was muted by a lack of any enthusiasm and very low trading volume. Part of the mar...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Speculating About the August WASDE

It has been largely overlooked amidst all the focus on the U.S. corn and soybean crop prospects, but the August WASDE is likely to also contain some other...

Fairness Vewed Broadly; Toxic or Benign; Killer AC

In an effort to stall participation in a “special session” with the U.S. over the terms of the current free trade agreement, South Korea is arguing that it...

Brazil May Impose TRQ on Ethanol Imports

The Brazilian Foreign Trade Council (Camex) may place a TRQ on ethanol imports in the next two weeks that will impact U.S. ethanol producers.It is nothing...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Egypt reports that the country’s foreign exchange reserves are at the highest level since before the 2011 Arab Spring, reaching $36.0 billion, and that the...

Market Commentary

Trading was subdued with the August WASDE looming Thursday at noon (EDT). There is a general sense that traders are seeking to lower risk exposure going in...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There were no trades on the Argentine soybean market last week, but offers remained around 40sX for September FOB and traded just today at +44sX FOB. Local...

Dicamba – New Soybean Issue?

The Dicamba soybean is the latest (and hoped to be the next greatest) soybean seed/chemical combination, resistant to the broadleaf killer of the same name...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Misnamed and Misinformed; Fair is Fair

The Organization for Competitive Markets (OCM) has a nice ring to its name. Like so much else in politics, though, its goal is quite to the contrary. Misna...

Market Commentary

Markets started Sunday evening with small gains, and that’s the way they traded the entire night session in light volume. Wheat was then a reluctant follow...

Market Commentary

Markets were generally mixed to end this volatile, negative week that saw soybeans losing nearly 50 cents, corn a dime and wheat 10-20 cents. Both corn and...

No Change to Biofuel Point of Obligation

Last year the EPA denied a petition to change the point of obligation on biofuels compliance but opened a comment period to consider the issue further. In...

Commodity Outlook; Internet and Innovation Inequality

Americans file four times as many patent applications as do Europeans, and part of the reason is a contrast in attitude. Commodity Price Outlook Consumer p...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India is set on fulfilling its fuel blending mandate and has plans to achieve up to 20 percent ethanol blending in the near future. However, there are seve...

More Pain

The grain market news this week seemed to be full of more stories of financial woe and disappointment at the upper levels of the industry.The grain market...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Market Commentary

Selling pressure in overnight trading continued during the day session with November soybeans plunging as much as 22 cents to $9.555, finally filling the o...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Why 2017/18 Will Be Different

A number of developing factors over the past several weeks suggest that the 2017/18 crop cycle will be different across the globe.Major common threads for...

Trade Policy Roundup

Canada does not want to give up its supply management programs for dairy and poultry in the NAFTA 2.0 negotiations, and now it reportedly also wants to mai...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

China In-Country Analysis

With the volume of imported soybeans remaining high and arrivals of new shipments continuing at a strong pace, China’s estimated soymeal inventory ha...

Free Trade and Protectionism; Retail Shakeout and Commodities

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross likely tired of hearing the U.S. labeled as protectionist and responded to critics via the Wall Street Journal. He char...

Market Commentary

The overnight session started out with carryover selling pushing grain and soy prices slightly lower, but bargain hunter buyers soon showed up to move pric...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's grain exports reportedly set a new record in 2016/17, and its milling wheat prices started to drop last week on the domestic market due to the gr...

A Few Comments That Come to Mind

It is difficult to recall a growing season in the U.S. with as much uncertainty as in 2017. Meanwhile, one potential factor in determining how this year's...

Opposite than Expected Tacks; Ugly Answer; Biofuel Sleight of Hand

China’s Vice Commerce Minister Qian Keming warned the Trump administration against mixing trade policy with the issue of North Korea’s security threats. Op...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Kenyan farmers are saying that the extended duty-free maize import period will make large volumes of those low-cost stocks available when the local crop is...

Plans for the 2017 Farm Bill Defy Odds

Congress hasn’t passed a farm bill on schedule since 1990, and now the agriculture committees want to pass the next one early.Congress hasn’t passed a farm...

Market Commentary

It seemed to be a “get me out” market in the soy complex today as long liquidation dominated trade. Getting out involved outright selling of long positions...

Spade a Spade; Biofuel Bias; Less Food

Elmar Baumann of the Association of the German Biofuel Industry warns in Euractiv that the EU’s RED II policy change is designed to fail. The assumption is...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Brazilian market was slow last week as one factor pushed basis higher. Farmers were not selling soybeans, and demand was focused only on the spot for A...

Court Rules Against the EPA on RFS Waiver

There is more chaos for the RFS after a Federal Court rules the EPA’s 2016 waiver of ethanol volumes to avoid the 10 percent blend wall was invalid under t...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The market in Romania for 12 pro (GASC quality) milling wheat remained about unchanged during the past two weeks and is offered at $195/MT FOB. Farmers the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Weather Threats Soften

Ten days ago, virtually every weather outlook for August looked threatening. However, changes in weather models that started last week have softened the ma...

Market Commentary

Markets were lower Sunday night on confirmation of a dry but cooler weather outlook across the Corn Belt and northern Plains. Funds then began the day with...

S&D Inseparable; Haggard Haggerty; Bullish Outlook

Under economics, supply and demand are intricately related. However, the U.S. Congress practices politics and not economics. S&D Inseparable Under econ...

Ag Review: Geopolitics and the Black Sea

WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook   A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...

Market Commentary

The market still isn’t ready to decide whether the general dryness over the western Corn Belt and northern Plains is enough to reduce corn yields to more b...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India’s rice exports have been lower in 2016/17, but its non-basmati varieties are expected to do better in 2017/18 and find a market in Bangladesh as well...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Flawed Spring Wheat Tour

The 2017 spring wheat tour was held this week with the results released yesterday, but it overlooked two key elements.The 2017 spring wheat tour was held t...

Foodie Movement Focuses on Ending Food Waste

New policy initiatives to curb food waste are likely to be part of the new farm bill. Depending how far these efforts go, some big changes to long-standing...

A Different Year Ahead

The global abundance of agricultural crops during the past four years is unprecedented and ultimately unsustainable. Change is inevitable, and it now clear...

Fundamental Food Economics; Australia/New Zealand Frustrations

Australia and New Zealand do not practice perfect market economics, but their agricultural policies can be better than many others. Fundamental Food Econom...

Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Global Soyoil Consumption Growth

Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

The whipsaw weather and the seeming inability of the GFS weather model to provide accurate forecasts continue to frustrate futures traders. Soybean futures...

Chicken to China; Drought in Cattle Country; Fat Rules

Lawmakers want to export U.S. broilers to China, and drought is helping liquidate the cattle herd. Meanwhile, dietary fat is in fashion again while still o...

China In-Country Analysis

U.S. sorghum prices are still quite competitive in China despite the transition there to a more fundamental supply and demand market system, and another fa...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in grain and soy futures found prices on both sides early and then gradually climbing above Tuesday’s closes as selling interest waned. For...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has suggested a trade-related way to decrease the storage expense for grain held by the State Intervention Fund. Meanwh...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

A Roll of the Dice on Crop Yields

The French Rivera meets the Midwest: Monte Carlo simulations of U.S. corn and soybean yields.The world’s most famous casino, the Monte Carlo along the Fren...

E15 Bill Stalls in Senate

Legislation to approve E15 runs into opposition as the gap between ethanol production and consumption continues to widen.The Senate Environment and Public...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat rallies are likely over, while soybean futures may have more potential. Traders are watching fall hog supplies with suspicion, and the Cattl...

Broad Imaginations

If Donald Trump’s rhetoric matched reality, protectionism would be at an all-time high. Indeed, the warnings that U.S. imposition of Section 232 duties on...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Turkey is reported to be the destination for about 95 percent of all Ukrainian wheat bran exports in the first 11 months of MY 2016/17. Meanwhile, there ar...

Market Commentary

Friday’s weak closes coupled with a major flip-flop in weather forecasts over the weekend brought more sellers to the markets Sunday night and this morning...

2016 Farm Income Numbers

A survey of one program's Red River Valley farm clients’ 2016 financial results provided some interesting points, but that data will likely be quite differ...

June Cattle Placements Set Bearish Trend

USDA’s latest beef cattle supply data could be a harbinger of bearish cattle prices into the third quarter of next year.USDA released its monthly Cattle on...

Controversial Clovis; New Rice Market; Ignoring Facts

This is a good year for U.S. rice as China has moved forward on an approval process for buying it, and now the Nikkei reports that Japanese consumers are b...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

More corn in the domestic market and a weaker Argentine peso helped send local prices lower by AR200/MT ($10/MT), which is good news for certain exporters...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn has been a golden grain for the farmers in most states, but lower prices during harvest and higher ones for other crops may induce them to shift to mo...

Drought Impact

The northern Plains drought is worsening, and the spring wheat market has reflected part of the severity and lost production. There is one element, though,...

Senate Ag Appropriations Bill Makes Down Payment on Farm Bill

The Senate ag appropriations bill includes funding and reform proposals for two programs that will help make the farm bill slightly easier to craft next ye...

Market Commentary

The corn and soybean markets were both bearish today on the overnight rains that were better than expected. Spring wheat futures were again soft, and some...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Global Soymeal Demand Growth in 2017/18

It is useful to occasionally take a look at the USDA forecast for growth in various commodities over the next year. This provides an understanding of where...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Nice Rice Deal; Good USDA Team

The previously rumored key management team at USDA has now been formally nominated and thus headed for consideration in the Senate. Nice Rice Deal The Trum...

Market Commentary

More hot, dry weather emboldened bulls at the CBOT today. WPI’s future-implied crop yield models hold different outlooks for corn versus soybeans. General...

Market Commentary

A sort of daily trading pattern has developed for grain and soy futures in recent days, which could be tied to the daily U.S. GFS and EU weather models in...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Prices on the Russian grain market kept growing overall, influenced by rising demand from one segment. Meanwhile, oilseed processors in Ukraine's central r...

China In-Country Analysis

One significant factor is going to raise operating costs for the deep corn processing industry in China's northern and northeastern regions, and that will...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

While South Africa has its biggest maize crop in about forty years and will once again be an exporter, it will have difficulty shipping to some maize-starv...

Breaking Down U.S. Wheat Classes

While traders had become accustomed to a world wheat market dominated by other origins, the U.S. wheat crop in 2017 has drawn more market attention than du...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s rather placid grain and soy futures trade was replaced by a return of the weather market overnight. Most prices for corn, wheat and soybeans qu...

House Budget Committee to Consider Budget Tomorrow

The House budget resolution has no specific instructions in the reconciliation package regarding spending cuts to farm and nutrition programs nor suggested...

NAFTA Objectives; Cotton Subsidies; GMO Transparency; Crooked Pointing

The White House released its negotiating objectives for NAFTA modernization, and there were mixed reactions. NAFTA Objectives Analyzed The White House rele...

New Animal Disease Strategy Still Dependent on Traceability

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) Veterinary Services office announced an animal disease response plan, but that is dependent on th...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

A few trades of Bulgarian feed wheat were reported last week at €159/MT ($182/MT) FOB. After one particular development, though, the market is offered at €...

Market Commentary

Corn, soybean and wheat futures finished the evening session about unchanged. Minneapolis wheat futures were then firmer this morning, soybeans turned high...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Guts Poker

The current U.S. (and Canada) growing season has not been as perfect as in the past three or four years, and it is starting to look much like guts poker, a...

Agricultural Trade Policy Moving

The EU, Brazil, Peru, Colombia and Uruguay have together proposed new disciplines on domestic agricultural supports. By contrast, the largest U.S. farm gro...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazilian soybean basis moved sharply higher this week as Chinese buyers suddenly wanted to purchase August soybeans, both FOB and CNF. The basis CNF react...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Restaurants Come Out Against E15

As previously reported, with the growth in ethanol production and production efficiency (see Ag Perspectives, 16 May) along with the mandated trend to grea...

Domestic Supports; NAFTA; Crop Prices

Many WTO members would like to see new disciplines on domestic supports, but there is far from a consensus on how much and where. Future of Domestic Suppor...

Restaurants Come Out Against E15

As previously reported, with the growth in ethanol production and production efficiency (see Ag Perspectives, 16 May) along with the mandated trend to grea...

Market Commentary

Weather risk isn’t over yet, and the grains markets traded accordingly. Elsewhere, cattle and hog futures followed divergent paths as their fundamentals sh...

U.S. and World Wheat

There are several differences between WPI's wheat production estimates by country and USDA's 12 July numbers. The net result, though, is a significant shif...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI's 26 May notifiation of new rules that effectively banned the trading of cattle, including buffaloes, for slaughter at animal markets was met with a pe...

Restaurants Come Out Against E15

Legislation to approve E15 blends of ethanol is moving in the Senate, but it has garnered opposition from the National Council of Chain Restaurants.As prev...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Takeaways from the July WASDE

The northern Plains drought and the erratic, potentially threatening weather for crops in the western Corn Belt invested yesterday’s July WADSE with perhap...

Market Commentary

If anyone needed a tutorial on the dangers that lurk in weather markets, today’s grain and soy markets provided one. Longs may have taken a beating, but en...

KORUS Leverage; Europe’s Ag Strategy

The U.S. has requested a joint committee meeting with South Korea under the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) with the goal of making it a “more bala...

U.S. Meat Exports Losing Leverage in Japan

The EU has negotiated a trade deal with Japan following on the Japan-Australia agreement of 2015. With the U.S. pulled out of the TPP, U.S. red meat export...

China In-Country Analysis

U.S. wheat exports to China during January-May 2017 totaled 980,206 MT at a value of $229.7 million, surpassing the entire volume for all of 2016. The U.S...

Market Commentary

The July WASDE conveyed an overall bearish tone for the grains, but it was mildly supportive for soybeans. As expected, it diverted market attention away f...

China In-Country Analysis

U.S. wheat exports to China during January-May 2017 totaled 980,206 MT at a value of $229.7 million, surpassing the entire volume for all of 2016. The U.S...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Refugee Value; Localization

University of Notre Dame researchers tracked refugees entering the U.S. in terms of outcomes and found there was one critical factor in success rates. Refu...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia and Ukraine have both released the total volumes of their respective grain exports for MY 2016/17. Ukraine has also reportedly experienced a very si...

EU Ag Council to Consider Soya Declaration

The proposal, which is intended to address the EU's feed protein deficit through a series of steps, is scheduled to be considered at  the council...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Egypt's problem with ergot has always been with the standard for wheat, which has been revised higher. However, the acceptable level has remained at 0.0 pe...

Many Questions, Few Answers

USDA’s July WASDE has grabbed only modest attention in recent years. However, circumstances have changed the intensity of interest as this year's edition c...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

Trading volume was quite large again overnight, but it then slowed during the day session with prices recovering to levels around Monday’s closes. It was a...

Ag Appropriations Bill Directs FDA on Regulating Plant-Based Milks

Heretofore, the FDA has been uncooperative with the dairy and meat industries' fights against use of the terms “milk” and “meat” by plant-based substitutes...

Africa Realism; DET Dumping; Hamburg Hypocrites

U.S. biodiesel producers are now seeking retroactive antidumping and countervailing duties on imports of competing product from Argentina and Indonesia. Af...

Market Commentary

Soybeans continue to lead the markets higher on the continuing treat of hot, dry weather encompassing more of the northern Plains and Corn Belt. Corn, thou...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The milling wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria was quite active last week as many farmers took advantage of one particular development. Meanwhile, weathe...

Appropriations Bill and Budget Resolution This Week?

The House of Representatives is likely to take up both the ag appropriations bill and the FY 2018 budget resolution this week. What will that mean for agri...

G20 Trade Realism; Risky Forecasts

The OECD and FAO issued their annual long-range outlook (2017-2026) for global food commodity prices, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office makes the sa...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The wheat markets are quiet with not much business reported for new crop since they heated up two weeks ago. Wheat with 11.5 percent protein rose to the mi...

The Weather Market Has Arrived

There hasn’t been one in the U.S. since 2012, and USDA is currently using the second-highest corn and soybean yields ever in its supply/demand analysis. It...

Is the Wheat Rally Real?

Minneapolis futures had an incredibly volatile week, but nothing really changed from a fundamental aspect other than the hard red spring wheat crop got sma...

Is the “America First” Approach Changing Biofuel Policy?

The U.S. EPA has released the proposed 2018 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for biofuels, the first such issued by the Trump administration, and it sign...

Market Commentary

The soybean story seems to be more about weather than demand. Today’s issue was that it is a Friday and forecasts can change over the weekend. Meanwhile, w...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Even though the MSPs for pulses and oilseeds have been increased for the khariff season, the market prices for the former are much lower. As a result, farm...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

RIN Investigation; Ag Export Hearing

U.S. EPA announced a review of the Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) system that undergirds the fuel ethanol utilization program and has issued a req...

What the HRS Market Tells Us

For traders who have become used to a price movement of 25 cents being a big deal in grain and soy futures markets over the past few years, the current MGE...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures prices are more or less following their own path and ignoring the gyrations of the wheat markets as those futures fell victim to their own...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

China In-Country Analysis

The average producer’s prices for soymeal and soyoil increased RMB 3/MT ($0.44/MT) to RMB 2,710/MT ($400.3/MT) and RMB 114/MT ($16.84/MT) to RMB 5,90...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The trends in Ukraine's milling wheat, feed wheat, and feed barley markets all changed last week, influenced by the start of the 2017 harvests. Meanwhile,...

Self-Righteous Trade; A Rose; Biofuel Cut

The U.S. dairy industry has been fighting use of the term “milk” by nondairy products for nearly 20 years, and now the meat industry is gearing up for a fi...

China In-Country Analysis

The average producer’s prices for soymeal and soyoil increased RMB 3/MT ($0.44/MT) to RMB 2,710/MT ($400.3/MT) and RMB 114/MT ($16.84/MT) to RMB 5,90...

Market Commentary

As a result of current weather forecasts, today’s futures markets seemed undecided about price direction as grain and soy prices swung back and forth in wi...

Trade Trouble; KROUS Redux; Back to Bite; Fuel Fight

The historical criticism is that America’s economic interests have taken a backseat to national security objectives, and despite his rhetoric demanding fai...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Brazilian market quickly became stronger last week. Two factors drove basis higher, especially in the CNF market where the most liquid position has bee...

Market Commentary

The soy complex started firm overnight on the warmer, drier weather forecasts, and Minneapolis wheat futures continued to charge ahead last night and today...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The July 4th holiday in the U.S. typically marks the start of the most critical period of development for the corn and soybean crops, and there are several...

Record Swine Herd

USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs report shows a record swine herd and future stability in the sector.USDA’s most recently released quarterly Hogs and Pigs re...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The demand for feed wheat at current prices is difficult to find as corn is about $10-20 cheaper. In Spain, the spread between Brazilian corn and Bulgarian...

U.S. and China: Is the Honeymoon Over?

Trade talks between the U.S. and China yielded early and unexpected positive outcomes, which may now be in jeopardy.Foreign policy concerns took precedence...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India rolls out its new Good and Services Tax (GST) starting 1 July 2017, the largest tax reform in quite some time is expected to possibly make Indian...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Market Commentary

Soybeans had quite a trading range today, triggered by more bullish USDA stocks and acreage numbers than expected, and there was no stopping wheat in any o...

USDA Reports Positive Soybeans, Negative Corn

Today’s USDA acreage and stocks numbers didn’t contain any big surprises, but there were a few small ones.Today’s USDA acreage and stocks numbers didn’t co...

Korean Curtsy; Trump Risks; WTO Agenda Outlook

The EU utilizes direct payments as a farm support mechanism, and they are considered the least distorting approach. Now, however, the CAP is under severe b...

This Week’s Reports

Today's report from Statistics Canada and tomorrow's from USDA should present a good picture of how land has been planted with the major grain and oilseed...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Cattle on Feed Way Up; Independence Day Cookout Slightly Cheaper

The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex started out slowly with mixed price action, but volume picked up and prices began to firm as traders contin...

China In-Country Analysis

Last week’s landed price of imported soybeans dropped $14/MT to $387/MT even as the yuan fell slightly against the U.S. dollar. That lower cost, howe...

Daft on NAFTA; Inverse Trade Views

The purpose of free trade negotiations is to reduce the barriers to cross-border transactions, but some want to use the “modernization” of NAFTA to actuall...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian grain prices once again fluctuated insignificantly in RUB expression, but they decreased in USD expression as the ruble continued to weaken. Meanwh...

Ag Review: U.S. Grains and the Weather Market

WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook   A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...

Market Commentary

The looming USDA reports and weather uncertainties are combining to constrain trading in grain and soy futures. The general quiet trend continued during to...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Turkey is seeking changes to its customs union with the EU. Industrial goods are currently covered, and there is talk of possibly adding agricultural produ...

2017/18 U.S. Wheat Outlook

A great abundance of wheat supplies in the U.S. and a record-large volume in the world were the dominant features in 2016/17 that resulted in relatively lo...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices firmed in rather active overnight trade, and a similar pattern followed in the day session. Shrinking spring wheat production...

EU-Japan; NAFTA +/-; Kowtowing; Budget Bobbing

EU negotiators are reportedly anxious to close a free trade agreement with Japan. Meanwhile, a report by the Congressional Research Service identifies the...

House Appropriators Release Ag Funding Bill

Tomorrow the House Appropriations Committee’s subcommittee on Agriculture will consider farm and food program spending for FY 2018.The House Appropriations...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The GASC purchased 55,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat and 120,000 MT of Romanian origin last week, paying $207-209/MT CNF for 25 July-10 August shipment. There w...

Border Adjustment Tax Idea Is Fading

Two of the top leaders in Congress, the speaker and the House Ways and Means Committee chairman, are running into stiff opposition to their border adjustme...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazil’s soybean market is rebounding after weeks of weakness, and soybean production estimates are finalized in Argentina. Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s market...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

Corn, soybeans and Minneapolis wheat futures traded higher overnight, while KC and Chicago wheat traded lower. Markets then traded slightly higher all day...

Status of Barley and Oat Crops

The focus on the northern Plains drought has been on its potential impact on hard red spring wheat production, and that is important for several reasons. H...

232; Modi Monday; By Christmas; Don't Say Doha

The Trump administration is expected to release its Section 232 report late this week. The U.S. agriculture community is concerned that extrajudicial actio...

Distrust; TTIP Phoenix; Self-Flagellation

Japan is cool toward a bilateral free trade agreement with the U.S. after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expended his political capital last year on the TPP. Ne...

Trump on Ag: Rhetoric and Reality Gap

President Trump gave a speech in Iowa this week focusing heavily on ag, especially biofuels issues, but it is what was between the lines that raises some c...

Market Commentary

It is tough to have a corn or soybean rally in June when temperatures are below normal and there is at least some precipitation in the forecast. Wheat, led...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The overall sowing of pulses crops in India is down 33.74 percent as of 23 June versus a year ago. Farmers are facing challenging planting decisions as som...

Wheat Keeps Getting More Interesting

As spring crop ratings plunged again last week and hard red winter wheat protein levels continue to be a concern, issues with wheat production outside of N...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Selective Free Trade; GMO Suit; Salty; Local

EU leaders have spent ample time criticizing the “America First” message of Donald Trump and proclaiming faith in free trade, but their message will be dif...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Market Commentary

The decline of corn and soybean futures prices in overnight trading accelerated during the day session as the July contracts for both moved below technical...

Cattle on Feed; Fat Fight

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

New Season for USDA Reports

On 30 June, the new season of USDA reports gets well underway. USDA may have a longer history of reporting on world agriculture than any other entity, and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

China In-Country Analysis

Two factors enabled the Canadian pork industry to greatly benefit in the past year from a surge in exports to China, hitting a record of nearly 314,000 MT...

Market Commentary

Trading volume overnight was better than might be indicated by the lack of price movement, but it was unimpressive during the day session. Later during the...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's milling wheat prices continued to decrease on the domestic market during the week of 12-16 June, reflecting the end-of-season trend. However, exp...

Regulating Food; License; African Contrasts

Efforts to reduce consumptive diseases has produced a slew of regulatory responses, including labeling, taxes and educational efforts. However, a study com...

Ethanol Stocks and Exports Up, Domestic Use and Margins Down

Driving demand for fuel has been slower than expected so far this year, and refinery runs are increasing. This means exports and inventories of petroleum p...

Market Commentary

Corn and soy complex futures traded rather quietly overnight with minimal price changes. However, wheat prices moved higher again. During the day session,...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Experts in South Africa are saying that the bumper 2017 grain crops will lead to lower prices for dairy products, meat and other grain-dependent items. Bec...

An Important Three Weeks

While the grain and soy complex markets have already been in the early throes of a weather market, the next three weeks will provide a wide variety of fres...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Bulgarian feed wheat price has increased sharply since last week as it followed the MATIF wheat futures rally. Consequently, the spread between that an...

Is U.S. Weather the Only Game in Town?

Markets have been concentrating on the start to the U.S. growing season, and that will continue to be the dominant market factor for the next 30-60 days. H...

Market Commentary

It was interesting that corn’s losses were being blamed on a better weather outlook, but that same forecast didn’t push soybeans lower. The soy complex was...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Narrowing the Fed’s Balance Sheet

In addition to raising the federal funds rate at its 13-14 June, the Federal Reserve addressed the issue of how it will roll off its massive holdings of se...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Old crop wheat prices have been depressed for months now, mainly due to exporters’ big long positions and slow, small Brazilian demand. Argentine wheat is...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The federal and state governments have been unable to buy grain/oilseeds/pulses at the declared MSP, and GOI wants the private sector to lower the prices o...

Market Commentary

Minneapolis wheat futures took the lead again in overnight trade, and that pattern followed through at the day session opening. The uncertainty today was t...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

State of the Food Economy

Word that Amazon is buying Whole Foods sent shock waves through a food industry already wobbling from the enormous changes being incurred. First and foremo...

Where Ag Finds Itself on Trade

Who could have predicted the situation in which the U.S. ag sector now finds itself with Mexico and China?As the saying goes, “Don’t judge a book by its co...

It’s Weather Time

It is now past the prime reproductive period for small grains (spring wheat, durum, barley, oats, etc.), and the critical weather period for corn and soybe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Milk Shake; Beef Hurdles; NAFTA Issues; Shorts

USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue appeared to be referencing the ultrafiltered milk issue when he stated that Canada’s dairy processing schemes were key to the f...

China; COOL; Cattle Outside of Feedlots

One of China's requirements in its agreement regarding U.S. beef shipments is traceability, and Senator Jon Tester (D-Montana) has noted this is a model fo...

2016/17: A Year for Exports

The U.S. contributed to the world production records in 2016/17 by harvesting its own record corn and soybean crops. Also impressive has been the continued...

Market Commentary

Overnight losses were gradually reduced during the day session. Today’s futures market price action suggests that traders are still concerned that hot, dry...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

China In-Country Analysis

Although China’s yuan continued to gain ground on the U.S. dollar, last week’s landed price of imported soybeans rose $5/MT to $402/MT. The ave...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian sunflower seed oil prices fell on the domestic market and remained stable on the export market, influenced by two developments. Meanwhile, grain...

Market Commentary

Wheat markets tried hard to keep the rally going today, but the effort ran out of steam in the face of light selling from recent longs taking profits. Corn...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The latest USDA/FAS report is projecting Turkey’s 2017/18 soybean imports will be up by about 400,000 MT over 2016/17 forecasts of 2.45 MMT. Domestic produ...

Outlook for U.S. Spring Wheat

Grain and soy market futures prices have mostly been moving up or down for the past two weeks, and the star performer has been MGEX spring wheat futures. B...

Unsustainable Splintering; Farm Policy Splintering; Robotic Benefit

The U.S. rural credit entity Farmer Mac issued its quarterly report called The Feed, which indicates that wage rates have risen faster in production agricu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices moved higher across the board overnight as several developments caught traders' attention. Their reactions were tempered, however, by...

Details of U.S.-China Beef Deal Reached

The beef industry is still reviewing the new regulations for resuming shipments to China, and that analysis will lead to assumptions about export volumes n...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Egyptian GASC purchased 240,000 MT of Russian wheat and 120,000 MT of Romanian origin over the weekend, paying $204.02-206.40/MT CNF for 10-20 July shi...

Weather Market Vagaries

Markets were down rather hard today. They started lower in the Sunday evening session, and those losses accelerated once today’s trading session got underw...

Market Commentary

A little less heat and perhaps a bit more rain coupled with a slightly bearish USDA supply/demand report last week brought sellers to the soy complex today...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Import Substitution; Biofuel’s Contribution; Hunger’s Roots

Encouraging domestic production is better than imposing import barriers, although relying on the market and comparative advantage is even better. Import Su...

House Ag Committee Dubious About Eliminating Food Aid Programs

The president’s budget proposed draconian cuts to international food aid programs, but Congress is skeptical.The president’s FY 2018 budget proposal (see A...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Based on CNF prices, Brazil's soybeans traded for June at $1.06N China and for July at $1.17N. Eexporters there are checking export margins daily to determ...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) have been increased in each of the three years of the Modi government. While perhaps a good political tool, these higher pric...

Market Commentary

After being lower overnight, the market was kept tentative today by that along with a few other issues. In addition, it must be remembered that this is Fri...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Political Economy; Consolidation; Impeachment

8 June was quite eventful with the Conservative government of Theresa May taking a beating in the polls and Donald Trump, whether he realizes it or not, bl...

Higher Number of Smaller Cattle Impacts Beef Production

How much longer will cattle trend toward lighter slaughter weights?Today’s WASDE report lowered earlier estimates of total 2017 beef production based on li...

Uninspiring USDA Reports

Not much inspiration was expected from today’s USDA reports, and that’s exactly what they delivered. However, there are a few important factors to keep in...

Transition and Turmoil

The first week of June is usually when grain and soy markets shift their attention to the growing of U.S. spring-sown crops, a transition that has been tum...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy market’s bullish drumbeat continued to roll overnight. Prices then moved still higher as trading resumed during the day session, and MGEX...

Unlocking Infrastructure; Weighing Food Aid

The lock and dam system in the U.S. is a crumbling mess, and the industry has been split on how to fix it. Whether or not Trump’s plan breaks that divide,...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Balkanized Food; Projected Welfare

Donald Trump receives ample criticism from Europeans for his “America First” proclamations, but the only difference is his transparency since n...

Market Commentary

There is no doubt that we are in a full-fledged weather market just now, one that developed rapidly enough to catch noncommercial shorts. When July corn pu...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian grain prices mostly remained unchanged or grew slightly as Ag Minster Aleksandr Tkachov revised his 2017 grain production forecast on 1 June. Meanw...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

China In-Country Analysis

China's average domestic corn price remained steady at RMB 1,670/MT ($245.23/MT) last week, but that market is facing mounting pressure with more state-res...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

It is being suggested that most of South Africa’s possible 3 MMT of maize exports this year will be used in East Africa, although some countries there will...

Market Commentary

The overnight session was relatively quiet with barely average trading volumes and prices that were mixed but without much change. Then today it was the su...

U.S. Sugar Industry Abandons Deal with Mexico

Despite a detailed agreement that addresses almost all U.S. concerns over Mexican sugar imports, the U.S. industry does not support the pact.U.S. Commerce...

Wheat on the March

Old habits are often hard to break, but bearish fund managers are undoubtedly becoming nervous about their short wheat positions and probably with good rea...

Oilseed Highlights; Sunseed Production; New Palm Oil Varieties

The company SMART Tbk has developed two new clones of oil palms via conventional breeding techniques, and they have been shown to produce much higher yield...

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