Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Articles
PPP; China Cheat; Forget Availability
Plant Protein Protectionism In a “Europe First” move, the EU has committed to creating an “EU Protein Plan” by the end of 2018. The...
More Livestock Eating Less; Entertainment “Meats” Politics
More Livestock Eating Less USDA’s feed outlook report estimates grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) will total 99 million in 2017/18, up from 98.3 m...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
DDGS Exports and Prices to Rise in 2018
U.S. DDGS exports could expand 28 percent in 2018 along with a moderate increase in prices. Favorable changes in geopolitics, including China’s reduc...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and wheat continued yesterday’s higher pricing trend, while corn retreated toward the safety of $3.50 (again). Soymeal was higher for the fo...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Early Brazilian Soybean Harvests Squeezing U.S. Prime Marketing Season
The U.S. has long been the world’s dominant supplier of soybeans for the period of 1 October-31 March. South America normally fulfills that role duri...
Appointment Hostages; Misinformed; Crop Apartheid; Mass Migration
Appointment Hostages The number of presidential nominees being held hostage in the U.S. Senate is notable for several reasons: Placing a hold on an appoin...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 January 2018 Market activity was still slow, but average prices grew slightly in both RUB and USD expression due to strengtheni...
Summary of Future
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
Today’s trade was essentially a reversal of recent trends with wheat higher, soybeans flat and corn rising above $3.50/bushel. The cattle complex was...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Retreats Breaking four consecutive weeks of increases, China’s estimated soymeal inventory fell to 883,700 MT as of 5 Janu...
Standard-Less Identity; Heritage Milk; On Ice; India Pipe Dream
Standard-Less Identity The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued a new strategic roadmap that indicates it will revisit the standards of identity for...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading of CME grain and soy futures was more active than has been the case for much of the last several weeks. Due to the Monday holiday in the...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Rain in Argentina; Brazilian Soybeans; NOPA Soy Crush; WASDE
Weekend Rains Helped Some Areas in Argentina Weekend rains in Argentina did bring relief to some areas, but more widespread coverage will be needed soon in...
What We Think We Know
The awaited reports on 2018 quarterly stocks and winter wheat acreage along with the January 2018 WASDE have come and gone. Given the broad spectrum of dat...
Budget, Farm Bill and Crop Insurance: Timeline and Issues
It was the hope of most aggies late last year that the farm bill would be passed out of the House Agriculture Committee this month with floor time schedule...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Traders returned from the holiday weekend with renewed enthusiasm for selling wheat, buying soybeans, and not doing anything with corn. The livestock compl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The first shipment of 2,200 MT of Indian wheat has arrived in Kabul, Afghanistan via Iran’s Chaba...
SOE Solution: Transparency
The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office just released a list of so-called notorious markets where counterfeit and pirated goods are sold. Notably, man...
Martin Luther King Day
Monday, 15 January is a U.S. holiday, and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published the following day &n...
Co-Op Tax Deduction Fix Coming
Gary Blumenthal and Bob Kohlmeyer both discussed the history of co-ops and the changes in their tax treatment under the recent tax reform bill this week. F...
Another Curve in the USDA January Reports
Almost everyone expected bearish corn and soybean numbers in today’s series of USDA reports, and that is what they were for the most part. If there w...
Market Commentary
As expected, markets were all basically unchanged overnight in light trading volume ahead of today’s series of major USDA reports. That calm tone the...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Arbitrage White; Export Spending; Outsourced Sustainability; Offal Trend
Arbitrage White Members of Mexico’s National Tortilla Council were reportedly (Reuters) threatening to raise the price of their primary product, a st...
WASDE Soyoil
U.S. soyoil stocks declined from 1,616 million lbs in December 2017 to 1,536 million lbs in January 2018. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 111...
WASDE Soymeal
"Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate.... Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million...
WASDE Soybeans
"Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million tons, up 0.5 million. Soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to 348.6 million on gain...
WASDE Corn
"This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower feed and residual use, and gr...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Bumper Wheat Crop Expected, but Imports Still Cheaper Available records indicate the area under wheat in 2017/18 totals 28.3 million hectares, down about 4...
WASDE Wheat
"Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised 29 million bushels on increased supplies and decreased use. Seed use is lowered 4 million bush...
Government Skewing; BPA Reversal; Conceivably Paris/NAFTA; AgTech Invest
Government Skewing The Indian government proclaims food insecurity and demands the right to build a domestic food stockpiling mechanism. At the same time,...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Brazilian and Argentine Soy Crops; Ukrainian Rapeseed
Soy Export Sales Better Last Week Exporters of U.S. soybeans and soymeal had better success making new sales in the week ending 4 January. Net sales of soy...
Market Commentary
On this last full day of trading ahead of the release of USDA’s various reports at noon (EST) on Friday, markets were about as quiet as one might exp...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Tax Laws and Agricultural Coops
When we entered the grain business right out of college in the mid-1950s, there was a considerable level of antipathy and distrust between agricultural coo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are presented along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Lean hog futures continued their beatdown today while feeder cattle were similarly lower. Live cattle futures managed an unconvincing higher close but rema...
Record Red Meat Exports; 2018 Outlook
Record Red Meat Exports USDA released the November red meat export statistics this week, which showed pork exports reached their highest monthly total on r...
Export Sales
This week’s Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market’s likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export p...
Fixing the Coop Edge
Under the new 199A deduction, farmers can sell their production to a coop and take a tax deduction for net earnings at up to 20 percent of the gross value...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 December 2017-10 January 2018 Market Trends Market activity was slow with insignificant changes in prices. Key grain prices...
Cooperative Evolution; Safety in Numbers; How Sweet?; CAP Cuts; Banning Competitors
Cooperative Evolution Farmer cooperatives in the U.S. were historically conflicted between serving their farmer members and operating as competitive busine...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets are well into the waiting game for Friday’s USDA reports, and this shows up in the form of light volume and limited price actio...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Ends 2017 With Fourth Straight Weekly Increase China’s nationwide estimated soymeal inventory continued to rise for four s...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The CME’s livestock products turned the board red today with sharp losses in the cattle complex and a weaker tone to hog futures. CBOT grains were mi...
Quarterly Stocks Preview
The combined release of USDA’s final yield/production estimates for the U.S. corn and soybean crops, the updated supply/demand estimates in the Janua...
Market Commentary
Today’s grain and soy futures markets were a sharp contrast to Monday’s with a substantially lower volume of trade. Interestingly, open interes...
Trade “Blowback?”; Taxes, Geopolitical Risk; 353 and Raw
Trade “Blowback?” The Trump administration is about to make decisions on import protection for several industrial products (steel, solar panels...
Trump Kicks Off Mid-Term Election Cycle at AFBF Convention
President Trump spoke to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) yesterday during the group’s annual convention in Nashville, Tennessee. He took c...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Oilseed Highlights: South American Soy Updates; Minnesota Soybeans; Indian Soymeal
Rains Impacting South American Soy Crops Farmers in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso are beginning to harvest early-maturing soybeans, but almost daily r...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and oilseeds are steady/mixed amid a day of mostly higher markets. The S&P 500 is up 8.26 points as of this writing while the Dow is up 128 poin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt seems to have finally settled the ergot problem that has plagued the wheat import business for se...
Trump Tends to Agriculture
Despite the concerns he brings to the U.S. agriculture sector on the issue of trade generally and NAFTA specifically, President Donald Trump was warmly rec...
Funds Hold All the Big Marbles
Funds have entered the New Year holding record-large short positions in corn and wheat futures, and they have also turned their long soybean position into...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Trends Strong demand remains in the spot soybean market as Chinese buyers seem to have realized they need supplies immediately, a developme...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week slightly easier Sunday evening on very limited trading volume with Minneapolis March at just 200 contracts. Meanwhile, March corn...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Commodity Year in Review and 2018 Outlook
The first half of 2017 was mostly neutral for commodities except for a second-quarter rally for livestock and a decidedly bearish trend for energy. By the...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market continued to remain about unchanged last week. Russia and Ukraine will return from their New Year and local Christmas ho...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportuniti...
Farm Policy Going to Pot
The biggest crop-related issue today is not what might happen in the upcoming farm bill; rather, it is what occurred yesterday at the Department of Justice...
Regulated Commodity; Foodtopia
Regulated Commodity The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it will hold hearings at the end of the month to examine issues related...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed in the Thursday night session, and that’s pretty much how they ended the week. Corn didn’t do anything today, while soymeal...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets along with USDA...
Soybeans Rule the Northern Plains in 2018
The North Dakota State University (NDSU) extension service recently released its initial crop budget worksheets for 2018. It breaks the state of North Dako...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Supplies Keeping Sugar Prices in Check India’s sugar production reached 10.3 MMT as of 31 December 2017, a 25.36 percent increase from the tot...
Raw Water Stupidity
The New York Times identified a trend that would be the hoot of the New Year if it were not so deadly – raw water. It notes consumers drinking unfilt...
Anti-Fat Message; Digital Media and Checkoffs
New Year’s Anti-Fat Message A panel of experts, pickd by U.S. News and World Report, rated the ketogenic diet as tied for worst option on its list of...
Market Commentary
CME grain and soy complex futures traded both sides early during the overnight session, but they gradually drifted slightly lower as trading volume decline...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
A Few Thoughts Looking Ahead
USDA’s array of January reports will be released on 12 January. They will include: the last estimates of the average yields and production for the 20...
Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Rust; Argentine Weather and Soy Export Taxes; Monsanto
Growing Soybean Rust Problem in Parana Asian soybean rust can be a devastating pathogen if not adequately controlled, and agronomists in Brazil recommend t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Good afternoon from a very chilly Washington, D.C. The ‘bomb cyclone’ is hitting the northeast U.S. with wind, snow, and plenty of cold. Fortun...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia: Grain Export Update According to data provided by the Federal Customs Service of Russia, 26.595 MMT of grain were exported as of 27 December and fr...
Wrong Court; Full Transparency; End Wheat Subsidies; Meat and Optimism
Wrong Court The EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement will now start hurting U.S. exporters, and the next ding will come when the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) s...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trading started out rather slowly, but they then accelerated both in terms of volume and upward price movement during the early morning h...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Surprisingly, wheat led the commodity complex higher today with soybeans a reluctant follower and corn futures unwilling to touch $3.55/bushel. U.S. stocks...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Xi’s Policies Promise New Future for Small Farmers With market data updates slow to materialize because of the New Year’s holiday, this...
2018 Congressional To-Do List
The second session of the 115th Congress will convene tomorrow, the start of a very busy schedule for the year. President Trump, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R...
Millennial Challenge
Research by USDA/Economic Research Service (ERS) economists Annemarie Kuhns and Michelle Saksena reveals the contradictions and challenges posed to the foo...
Market Commentary
With the closure yesterday and overnight because of New Year’s Day, CME grain futures markets opened for the first post-holiday trading session at 9:...
Straws in the Wind
In 2017, U.S. corn and soybean growers experienced unexpectedly large yields, but the benefits of that were largely offset by very low crop prices. Winter...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Drought; Brazil’s Soy Exports; U.S. Soy Crush
Drought Continues in Parts of Argentina Relatively little rainfall was received this past weekend over Argentina’s soybean and corn growing areas, es...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Good afternoon and Happy New Year! It’s been a generally upbeat day on both Wall Street and West Jackson street in Chicago with U.S. equities and ag...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s government has announced that the official customs exchange rate will remain at the current level of 16 EG...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
CBO Proposes Crop Insurance Spending Cuts
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a report, “Options to Reduce Budgetary Costs of the Federal Crop Insurance Program,” on 22 Decembe...
Happy New Year from WPI
The WPI team extends best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and Happy New Year. Please note that our next report will be issued 2 January...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
The Possible U.S. Year Ahead
Making prognostications about the year ahead has always been risky business, but predictions about the future have become a great deal more suspect followi...
Market Commentary
Markets ended the year mixed on extremely light volume. Corn and wheat futures were 1-2 cents lower much of today’s session, and soybeans traded both...
Follow the Money
This year ends with a peek at the latest numbers from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The chart below shows the net reported positions...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Prices on the Rise Demand for soymeal and soyoil is robust, but the soybean supply is limited and slow. The government of India’s (GOI&...
A Review of USDA’s Hogs and Pigs/Cattle on Feed Reports
Hogs and Pigs Report USDA released this quarterly report last Friday, which was previewed here the previous day (see Ag Perspectives, 21 December). The tot...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were mixed as last evening’s trading began, but they soon drifted lower with soybeans and soymeal taking the lead in typ...
Things of Interest from 2017
In the closing days of the year, it is standard procedure for commentators to put forth their lists of the best, worst or most important items of the past...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Else...
2018 Trade Policy
Donald Trump upended conventional trade policy in 2017, but there are critical deadlines in 2018 that will reveal the wisdom or calamity of his ways. While...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
More on New Chinese FM Standard for Soybeans
More information is now available regarding China’s new foreign material (FM) standard for soybean imports from the U.S. (see Ag Perspectives, 22 Dec...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
In contrast to the combination of red and green hues traditional at Christmas time, the CBOT featured mostly red today. Corn, the entire soy complex, and C...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s price trends carried over into the overnight session with soybeans and soy products firmer while the grains were near unchanged to slight...
Organic Enforcement; Trade Enforcement; 2017 Quotes
Organic Enforcement An increase in products, particularly via importation, being falsely marketed in the U.S. as organic has prompted legislation to double...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 December 2017 Domestic prices moved in different directions. On the export market, milling wheat prices continued to drop, fal...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains are higher while the soy complex is under pressure. After yesterday’s fireworks in the soybean pit, the weather situation is failing to develo...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again, Reaching 10-Week High China’s nationwide soymeal inventory hit a 10-week high through mid-December as crushe...
Energy Exports
Export demand is playing an increasingly larger role in the energy markets. Since 2010, those exports have more than doubled with very strong growth occurr...
Market Commentary
Markets reopened this morning after the Christmas holiday with the same lack of enthusiasm that prevailed last week. There was little by way of fresh news...
Do We Dare Be Bullish?
For many months, the CME grain and soy markets have been stuck in a fundamentally, technically and emotionally bearish pattern. Typically, trading volumes...
Clean Fish
Farming is a mess, given its contribution to soil erosion, desertification and other maladies. However, fishing is even worse. At least the effects of farm...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Imports; Biodiesel Production; Asian Rust
China’s Soybean Imports Data released today by China’s General Administration of Customs indicates the country’s U.S. soybean imports tot...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Merry day-after-Christmas! Corn and wheat futures were generally quiet in the market’s annual post-Christmas trading lull while soybean futures were...
Happy Holidays from WPI
The WPI team sends best wishes for the holiday season to you and your families. Plese note that our next report will be issued on 26 December ...
Tax Tiff; Castrating Animal Welfare
Tax Tiff It brings the effective (total) tax rate on U.S. companies down to Europe’s average effective rate, but the Wall Street Journal notes that t...
Oilseed Highlights: New Chinese FM Standard for U.S. Soybeans; Export Sales
China Tightens FM Standard for U.S. Soybeans China intends to tighten its foreign material (FM) standard for U.S. soybeans, effective 1 January 2018. Soybe...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show...
Farm Bill Budget Assurance; Biodiesel Incentives
The House and Senate both passed a continuing resolution (CR) yesterday (before today’s funding deadline) that will keep the government open until 19...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
A Christmas Gift for France’s Farmers
There was an interesting news story from Paris, carried by Reuters in these last days before Christmas, entitled “France to raise minimum food prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Under Pressure as Production Rises India’s 2017/18 sugar production totaled 6.94 MMT as of 15 December 2017, up 5.346 MMT (29.81 percent...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle on Feed inventory were up 8 percent, placements up 14 percent, and marketings of 1.84 million head were the highest for November since the series be...
Market Commentary
Merry Christmas! Markets closed early today at 1 p.m. (EST) and will reopen on Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. (EST). The grain and oilseed markets were fractionally...
Ag Review - December 2017
2017 was an eventful year for the U.S. economy and the agricultural markets. 2018 promises to be just as interesting, although perhaps not as bullish. ...
Hogs and Pigs/Cattle on Feed Reports
Tomorrow, the last business day before Christmas, will be a busy one for livestock news. USDA will be releasing its quarterly Hogs and Pigs inventory repor...
Market Commentary
In an otherwise dull market, today’s USDA/FAS export sales report was a pleasant surprise. For the week ending 14 December, the totals for wheat, cor...
Friday
Fri 12/22/2017 12:00 pm Cattle on Feed NASS 12:00 pm Chickens and Eggs NASS 12:00 pm Cold Storage NASS 12:00 pm Cotton Ginnings NASS 12:00 pm Hogs and Pigs...
Selective Efficiency; Energy Slowdown; GI Barrier
Selective Efficiency Hampton Creek, the artificial foods maker, has announced a new product. It had earlier purchased its own fake mayonnaise from grocery...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsew...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
Grain Producers and Risks
By its nature, grain farming is a risky business, and most farmers are generally tolerant of the chances they take every year. It is commonly said that som...
Closing Bell Wrap-up
Trader’s pre-Christmas exit from the markets was notable today as grains and oilseed futures traded lazily in low volume. One analyst remarked on twi...
Export Sales
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Thursday
Thu 12/21/2017 8:30 am Weekly Export Sales FAS 9:00 am Food Price Outlook ERS 3:00 pm Cost of Pollination NASS 3:00 pm Livestock Slaughter NASS...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 December 2017 Market Trends A 3.9 percent increase in the railroad transportation tariff for grains contributed to increases i...
German Torheit; F&V Fix; Developing Agriculture; National Food Policies
German Torheit The European department at the German Bundestag is seeking to appease Social Democrats and Greens by reportedly arguing that a national ban...
Market Commentary
Congress finally passed the Republican overhaul of the U.S. tax code today and sent it to President Trump for his promised signature. Republicans promised...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Bell Wrap-up
Grain and oilseed futures traded quietly today ahead of the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. With the dry Argentine weather moderating there is lit...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course: With soybean crushers returning to normal activity and ramping up output in anticipation of higher feed demand,...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
Today’s grain and soy markets could be described as in the holiday doldrums, but they have been in that state since long before the season’s ap...
RINs - Brazilian Style
The U.S. is not the only country debating the future of biofuel compliance credits, which are known as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) there. Biofu...
U.S. New Crop Wheat Outlook
Beating up on U.S. wheat markets has virtually become a habit for those analysts still paying attention to them. The irony of U.S. 2017 planted wheat acrea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Oilseed Highlights: South American Issues; India’s Vegoil Imports
Argentina Apparently Seeks U.S. Deal Argentina’s decision to raise the export tax on biodiesel from zero to 8 percent (see Ag Perspectives, 14...
Wednesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Black Sea wheat and corn FOB futures contracts, which are for 50 MT each, can now be traded on CME Glob...
Renegotiating Renewable; Trump Trade Bent; Livestock Deregulation
Renegotiating Renewable The high cost of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), now at $0.98 after reaching $1.07 in October, is hurting smaller oil refi...
Collapsing Winter Wheat Plantings
One of the numbers that will be released in the 12 January USDA reports will be the estimate of winter wheat plantings. Those and spring-planted wheat acre...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday evening session firm and finished that way. Wheat was the leader with small gains in all three markets. Meanwhile, corn and soyb...
The Week Before Christmas: Budget, Debt and Taxes
It was the week before Christmas and all through the House (and Senate), lawmakers were meeting deadlines and advancing priorities with care. Indeed, Congr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Chinese crushers were avid buyers of spot beans last week, purchasing all cheap offers available for December and January. Their margins improved...
Tuesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports include in this list span those covering feed grai...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market continued to be about unchanged last week. Domestic prices in Russia increased $1-4 in the main production regions. A bo...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Wrapping Things Up
It’s an annual tradition at this time to look back and assess where certain matters stand prior to the New Year. In that spirit, below is a summary r...
Fracturing Food; Fracturing Politicians
Fracturing Food Major food processing companies (Unilever, Tysons, Campbell Soup Co., Nestlé, Dean Foods and Mars) have quit the Grocery Manufacture...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Soy complex prices eased a bit this week on better chances for precipitation across the driest parts of southern Brazil and Argentina over the next 10-14 d...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Cotton Production Expected; Prices Slowly Moving Up: The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB)’s estimate of India’s 2017/18 cotton production is...
Market Commentary
Markets were quietly steady overnight in light trading volume. They then started higher this morning on the heels of several export sales announcements, in...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
UN-ification Drives Sectoralism
India coalesced the developing nations in 2001 and forced the rich countries to accept the “Development” part in the WTO’s Doha Developme...
WASDE; GIPSA Rule Controversy to Enter 10th Year; NAFTA Proteins
WASDE and Hog Slaughter USDA’s December WASDE report was released this week, and it showed a drop of 180 million pounds in pork production compared w...
Oilseed Highlights: Critical Weekend in Argentina; WASDE Report; etc.
Critical Weekend for Argentine Corn and Soybean Crops Weather forecasters are predicting some rainfall this weekend over much of Argentina’s soybean...
Weather and Markets
Earlier this week, we were asked why grain and soy futures markets do not seem to be taking the lack of rainfall and resulting dryness in portions of Brazi...
Market Commentary
Bitcoin mania with its wild price swings has taken over the attention of a good part of the financial world, and now it has become a commodity. Following a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
USDA Export Sales
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Trudeau Channels Trump; Select Barrier Analysis; NAFTA Obesity
Trudeau Channels Trump The C-Series passenger jet produced by Canadian-based Bombardier and jointly owned by Airbus and the government of Quebec competes a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 December 2017 Market Trends Domestic prices changed insignificantly overall, although there were some regional fluctuations. How...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Down Slightly as Feed Demand Improves Improving downstream fundamentals in the livestock market, particularly in hog production...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices tried to recover at least some of their losses following yesterday’s WASDE. Overnight trade saw prices inch higher in quite low...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Federal Reserve Meeting in the Midst of Inflation And Tax Reform
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting today and tomorrow. As noted after last month’s meeting (see Ag Perspecti...
MC-11 Update; Forced to Innovate
MC-11 Update The U.S. is no doubt wearing the black hat at the WTO Ministerial Conference (MC-11) in Buenos Aires. Rather than accede to the agenda being d...
The December WASDE
USDA’s December WASDE, released at midday, fits right into the history of previous issues for this month. They very seldom contain surprises but are...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Rapeseed Processors; Brazilian Soy Production; etc.
EU Rapeseed Crushers Impacted by Argentine Biodiesel Imports EU rapeseed processors have done quite well in recent years because of EU tariffs blocking bio...
Middle East and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS: Egypt intends to expand its wheat planting area this year by about 20 percent to 3.74 million acres. The government has...
Market Commentary
There was not much incentive to buy/sell grains or the soy complex during the overnight session with the December WASDE looming a few hours later. As a res...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
WASDE Wheat
The U.S. wheat export picture is changing again with the USDA’s latest figures. The agency’s updates to the U.S. and world wheat balance sheets...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s latest supply/demand estimates for the world’s most prevalent feed grain are analyzed and the most pertinent results shown in graphical...
WASDE Soybeans
China’s soybean demand, combined with the U.S. and South American supply situation, offer insights into the coming supply/demand dynamics. USDA&rsquo...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s updates to the U.S., Argentine, and Brazilian soyoil export situation, combined with changes to China’s and Southeast Asia’s impor...
WASDE Soymeal
Updates to the U.S., Argentine, and Brazilian soyoil export situation, combined with USDA’s changes to China’s and Southeast Asia’s impor...
SNAP Reform Proposed Just in Time for the Farm Bill
During the 2014 Farm Bill negotiations, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) was a divisive issue that delayed final passage of the legisla...
Transatlantic Devolution; NAFTA Bailout; Bittman’s Contradiction
Transatlantic Devolution Responding to criticism that its management of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) results in farm programs that are too complex...
No Excitement Expected in the December USDA Reports
USDA will release its December WASDE report tomorrow at noon (EST), and it has been impossible to find anyone who thinks it will include any numbers that a...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market again remained about unchanged last week with no major trades reported. The Russian 12.5 pro price has found a stable ba...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Crop conditions in Brazil remain excellent in general. Soil moisture is good with decent rains received regularly. Perhaps the only dry reg...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday evening session steady to slightly easier. Selling did gain some momentum in the soy complex, and soybean futures eventually tra...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Bilateral Bungling; Inexplicable Productivity; Geopolitical Outlook
Bilateral Bungling The WTO Ministerial starts this weekend in Buenos Aires, but no major outcome is expected since the U.S. is supposedly focused on bilate...
Searching for a Bullish Wheat Story
Searching for a bullish wheat story over several months has been challenging. There was a six-week rally in wheat last June and July, but futures have drop...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Import Duty Helps Boost Oilseed Prices The increase in the import duty on vegetable oils, which the government of India (GOI) imposed in mid-Novembe...
Market Commentary
The overnight trade featured largely steady pricing activity with January soybeans, March corn and March wheat posting slight gains. The upward momentum di...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Agriculture Lesson in DC; Reformulation Limits
Agriculture Lesson in DC U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is a leader on trade issues in the Trump administration, and he has been known to express his...
Egg Case Headed to SCOTUS; Uruguay-China Beef Traceability Deal
Egg Case Headed to SCOTUS In 2008, California voters approved a referendum known as Proposition 2, intended to regulate the cage sizes for egg-laying hens...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy; Indian Soymeal, etc.
Brazilian Farmers Investing More in Soybeans, Less in Corn Because of low corn prices and the necessity to treat soybeans for Asian rust, farmers in Mato G...
More Tales from Export Sales
One of the common threads of important information regularly available to grain and soy markets is the weekly export sales report from USDA/FAS. No matter...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading once again saw corn and wheat futures prices reluctant to move very far away from the previous close. Soybeans traded higher briefly, but...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
Fake Agribusiness News; Antidumping Language
Fake Agribusiness News CNBC’s headline reads: “Trump must avoid making US farmers the collateral damage of his protectionism, CEO says.”...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 November-1 December 2017 Market Trends Prices mostly remained stable. GEOGRAPHICALLY 3rd grade soft milling wheat prices grew in...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again as Crushing Activity Picks Up Through the last full week of November, crushing activity began to recover as environ...
Market Commentary
Soybean and corn futures traded slightly higher again overnight, while winter wheat contracts stayed close to unchanged. Trading volume was barely average...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
How Sexual Harassment Cases Could Drive Future Politics
Without trying to add to the salaciousness of the topic, it is worth considering recent revelations of sexual harassment in the context of the possible imp...
Bootstrap; Trade Balances; NAFTA Ask; Selective Sustainability
Bootstrap Economic Policy Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo surprisingly told French President Emmanuel Macron that his country does not want development...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Dryness; ITC Confirms Duties on Biodiesel; Indian Rapeseed
Argentina Dryness Currently the Soybean Trade’s Key Focus It is well known by observers of the global soybean market over the last decade that...
Things Worth Mentioning
As we move deeper into December, the energies and anxieties of the approaching holiday season become more noticeable. Whether that is good or bad depends o...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Iranian port of Chabahar is being officially inaugurated this week with a good deal of the funding for improvement a...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume in grain and soy markets was substantially less than during the Sunday/Monday overnight session. There was very little effort to p...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
How Tax Reform Could Drive Future Politics
The U.S. Senate passed its tax reform proposal at about 2 a.m. (EST) on Saturday. Informal conference committee talks began as quickly as later that same d...
Increasing La Nina Talk and Rising Soybean Prices
Soybean futures gapped upward in the Sunday evening session, trading 10-12 cents higher most of the night. The March contract traded right to $10.20, which...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. The domestic market in Russia is $1.00-$2.00 higher, while the FOB market is stable...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian market was quiet last week. Demand was focused on spot (December/January) positions, but U.S. Gulf (USG) offers are currently...
Market Commentary
Soybeans led corn and wheat markets higher in the Sunday evening session, driven by a continuation of the dry weather forecasts for southern Brazil and Arg...
Protectionism and Causes; Big Data Dichotomy
Protectionism and Causes The WTO reports that protectionism has not increased as expected. The number of antidumping investigations by the U.S. fell during...
Increasing La Nina Talk and Rising Soybean Prices
Soybean futures gapped upward in the Sunday evening session, trading 10-12 cents higher most of the night. The March contract traded right to $10.20, which...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. The domestic market in Russia is $1.00-$2.00 higher, while the FOB market is stable...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian market was quiet last week. Demand was focused on spot (December/January) positions, but U.S. Gulf (USG) offers are currently...
Cotton Terrorism; Cultural Shipping; Bored in BsAs; Oil versus Wheat
Cotton Terrorism Domestic agricultural subsidies distort markets and thus cause a multitude of harms. However, none seems worse than the overproducti...
A Respite for the Market Bulls
Markets started this week with a thud. Corn and wheat futures contracts reached new lows on Monday. Meanwhile, soybean futures have continued to trade in a...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Sowing Slow; Higher Prices Remain Stable The rabi wheat sowing has reached 11.066 million hectares thus far, down 12.41 percent from 12.635 million h...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets started the month of December higher. Soybeans were the leader on slightly drier forecasts for southern Brazil and Argentina. Whe...
The EPA Announces Final Biofuel Volumes
The U.S. EPA today finalized the 2018 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for biofuels under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). This is the fifth consecutiv...
Preliminary 10-Year Baseline; Japan May Extend Safeguard Tariff on Beef
USDA Preliminary 10-Year Baseline USDA issues a 10-year baseline report each year in February. This week, however, it released its early projections for th...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Biodiesel Mandates; Canadian Canola and Soybeans
Mediocre Soy Export Sales Again Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated last week was mediocre for U.S. soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. Ho...
USDA’s Long-Term Projections
For many years, USDA analysts have been cobbling together 10-year projections of planted area, yields, production, demand, carryout levels and farm gate pr...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices crept lower overnight after Wednesday’s trading featured more large-scale liquidation of positions in December contracts. Open i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
BsAs’ BS; Member State Protections; Hyper-Glyphosate
BsAs’ BS The upcoming WTO Ministerial Conference (MC-11) in Buenos Aires (BsAs) is much drama wrapped around deadlocked agendas. Indonesia, whose sta...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 November 2017 Prices grew slightly in RUB expression, but they increased more significantly in USD expression due to strengthe...
China In-Country Analysis
Soymeal Inventory Rises for First Time in Five Weeks: Clearance delays involving new shipments of imported soybeans due to a backlog in the issuance of GMO...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade produced mixed results for grain and soy prices. Soybeans were down, winter wheat was up slightly, and corn was about unchanged after Decem...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
A Huge Week for Tax Reform and the Farm Bill Budget
President Trump returned from his Thanksgiving holiday break with a tweet underscoring this week’s make-or-break tax reform. As previously reported m...
Glyphosaticus Subterfugium; NAFTA Opportunity; SME Focus
Glyphosaticus Subterfugium Although its roots are Latin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s reported anger with Christian Schmidt, her agricultu...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; EU Reauthorizes Glyphosate; Argentine Drought
Disappointing Export Sales for Soybeans The 24 November USDA export sales report was very disappointing for soybeans. It showed net soybean export sales fo...
Tight U.S. Grain Sorghum Supplies
Yesterday Mike Krueger commented on how U.S. barley and oats production has suffered (see Ag Perspectives, 27 November) as those so-called minor feed grain...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s proposed sale of state-owned flour mills is reported to be slightly more difficult than expected, c...
Market Commentary
USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist provided a look at its initial 10-year baseline projections for 2018-2027 today, which will be updated and expan...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Ag Review - November 2017
This month's look at the markets around the world. We have seen a lot of activity this month and things are looking up internationally. Check out this mont...
The Farm Bill and an Unprecedented Monetary Policy Scenario
Yesterday Bob Kohlmeyer shared his typically keen and instructive insight on the upcoming farm bill (see Ag Perspectives, 16 November). His fluency in all...
WTO Views; NAFTA Impacts; Real Trump Threats
WTO Views U.S. Department of Commerce Deputy Assistant Secretary Skip Jones said that the Trump administration could decide to leave the WTO. He argu...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Informa released its initial U.S. planting ideas for the 2018 season, which indicate it is expecting more corn acres and fewer soybean acres. It’s to...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Slumping Corn Prices, but No Export Feasibility Huge corn arrivals in the market yard have led to a seasonal slump in prices, which is a seasonal trend. Ma...
Market Commentary
Markets opened steady to higher Thursday evening and then strengthened at today’s opening. They found some short covering to end the week, but there...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Cattle on Feed
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters’ beef demand and pricing. Feedlot tu...
Aussie Livestock in China; U.S. Live Cattle Trade
Aussie Livestock in China In the past few years, China has transitioned from being a non-market to an open market and then a closed market for U.S. ethanol...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush Report; China GMO Safety Certificates
NOPA Crush Report Suggests Lower Oil Content in 2017 U.S. Soybeans The National Oilseed Processors Association’s (NOPA’s) monthly crush report...
It Is Farm Bill Time Again
Much like a colonoscopy, every few years it is time for another farm bill, and the process of creating one is about as much fun. Passed in 2014, the curren...
Market Commentary
Lower volume and minimal price changes were featured during the overnight session, which is using the word feature very loosely. Winter wheat futures were...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
Zimbabwe’s Ag Policy; Degrees of Distortion; Two-way Organic Fraud
Zimbabwe’s Ag Policy It is premature to conclude that the military’s takeover of government functions from Robert Mugabe’s regime in Zimb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 November 2017 Market Trends Milling wheat prices rose gradually in RUB expression, but they decreased in USD expression d...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Continues to Shrink, But Pace Slows Increased plant idling through the first week of November led to further contraction in Chin...
Market Commentary
Lower volume and minimal price changes were featured during the overnight session, which is using the word feature very loosely. Winter wheat futures were...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Global Biodiesel
The global biodiesel market is a like a big balloon – if pressure is put on one part (policy changes), there’s a bulge in another. In 2013, the...
Asian Catch-Up?; Undermined by Agreements; Selective Data
Asian Catch-Up? The Trump administration is supposed to make a big announcement tomorrow. Although some believe it relates to a Section 201 opinion regardi...
Less U.S. Canola and Sunseed; COFCO and Mato Grosso; Egyptian Vegoil Tender
U.S. Canola Area Up, Production Down in 2017 Last week’s USDA crop production report noted 2.028 million acres of canola were harvested in 2017, up 1...
How Noncommercials View Markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report of 10 November covered futures and options positi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt and Turkey are the two largest importers of Russian wheat. However, if Russia is to double grain exports within th...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grain and soy futures saw average volume and limited price movement. Markets traded on both sides of Monday’s closes. At the rec...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Tax Reform Update
Last Thursday was a big day for tax reform proposals in Congress. The House Ways and Means Committee passed its Tax Cuts and Jobs Act by a vote of 24-16 th...
Clean Label, Dirty Food; Rebalancing WTO
Clean Label, Dirty Food Ruth MacDonald and Ruth Litchfield at Iowa State University analyzed the impacts of the clean label movement and conclude there wil...
“She’s Back!”
“She’s back!” is the title of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) November 2017 La Nina update, wh...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market again remained about unchanged last week. Demand for Black Sea wheat is slightly weaker than in the peak months of Augus...
MERCOSUR Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The FOB and CNF markets were very quiet last week with little movement. Chinese demand was quite slow and only on the spot. Basis rose ever...
Market Commentary
Markets started the new week steady to slightly easier Sunday night. However, they were trading lower by Monday’s close after opening this morning wi...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
U.S. and Brazil: Ethanol Trade War
The U.S. and Brazil are edging toward a trade war over ethanol. Brazil has imposed a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) on imported ethanol with the full backing of t...
Anti-Glyphenation; WTO Shark Bait
Anti-Glyphenation Weed experts have called glyphosate a one-in-100-years discovery for its combination of efficacy in weed eradication and otherwise benign...
Boom Went the Strings of the Corn Market
Yesterday’s record corn yield estimate really sealed the fate of the corn market for at least several months. Some significant crop problems in Brazi...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Duty on Wheat Imports After raising the 2017/18 Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat by 6.8 percent to Rs.17,350 ($266.19)/MT in a signal to farmers, the...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to fractionally higher overnight, and they traded slightly higher much of today. That was a small surprise considering the magnitude of...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Chinese Frenemy; Health versus Ag
Chinese Frenemy Donald Trump once again has caused consternation, which this time is over his characterization of China’s trade policy. Until now, he...
WASDE and Exports; Organic Rule Delayed Again
WASDE and Exports USDA’s November WASDE report of today projects slightly lower beef and pork production but slightly higher broiler production versu...
Oilseed Highlights: USDA Soy Forecasts; U.S. Soy Export Sales
No Huge Changes in USDA Soy Forecasts Anyone expecting major changes for the U.S. and global soybean supply/demand situation in today’s USDA crop pro...
Another Bearish WASDE
Following are the key estimates from the November 2017 WASDE: 2017’s yield magic continues. USDA/NASS raised its estimated U.S. averag...
Market Commentary
USDA issued another bearish blow to the corn and soybean markets with its November WASDE. Bob Kohlmeyer delves deeper into the WASDE number and implication...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory in Downward Spiral on Strong Demand Stepped-up idling of plants due to ongoing environmental regulations and strong downstream d...
Market Commentary
There is not much to say about today’s grain and soy futures markets. Traders are cautious ahead of tomorrow’s November WASDE, much as they sho...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Thursday
Thu 11/09/2017 8:30 am Weekly Export Sales FAS 12:00 pm WASDE ERS 12:00 pm Cotton Ginnings NASS 12:00 pm Crop Production NASS 12:00 pm Peanut Prices NASS 1...
Stuff and Fluff of en dehors; Carbo-Overload
Stuff and Fluff of en dehors Donald Trump has adopted the “Asian pivot” of his predecessor but not in the same fashion. While Barack Obama appr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
[Note: The Russian grain and oilseed market information that regularly appears here was unavailable today. We hope to have an update in next week’s r...
Biofuel Bits
U.S. RFS Volumes The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is reviewing the EPA’s proposed rule under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program for e...
Geographical Disadvantage; Behind the Tree
Geographical Disadvantage Political correctness has turned English political economist David Ricardo’s comparative advantage theory on its head. Inst...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soybean Exports Impact U.S.; Argentine Soy Crop Forecast; MY 2016/17 U.S. Soy Exports
U.S. Soybean Exports and Sales Impacted by Larger Brazilian Sales The first two months (September-October) of MY 2017/18 for soybeans have not been very po...
Yield Magic
The story of the 2017/18 crop cycle in the U.S. and the world is being written. However, only the first few chapters have emerged so far, and there will no...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As a point of information, November 2017 marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the General Agreement on Tar...
Market Commentary
It is WASDE week with the November edition due out Thursday noon (EST). Barring emergence of something surprising, grain and soy markets are expected to be...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Wednesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Trump Tours Asia
Last Friday President Trump started an 11-day tour of Asia, the longest visit to the region since President George H.W. Bush was there in 1992. The five co...
Japan in Spades; Ponics for Work; Agrifoolish
Japan Almost in Spades Donald Trump abhors trade deficits, but he found his more accurate language during a state visit to Japan this week in citing a lega...
U.S. Winter Wheat Acres Will Decline Again
U.S. farmers planted the smallest number of winter wheat acres in 2016 since USDA started keeping records in 1919, and they will be even further reduced in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The South American soybean market is picking up with several trades completed this week. Certain conditions are affecting margins for trading houses, thoug...
Market Commentary
General Comment Markets were all steady to slightly higher in overnight trade, and volume was considered average. This is report week again, and USDA...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Next Week
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Tax Reform and Change at the Fed
Yesterday was a red-letter day for fiscal and monetary proposals with the Republican majority on the House Ways and Means Committee unveiling a new tax ref...
Why Didn’t I Sell Corn?
Corn producers across the country are scratching their heads and second-guessing why they didn’t sell or price more new crop corn when the December f...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Indian Market Should Open to U.S. Imports The U.S. Commerce Dept. and U.S. Trade Representative first raised market access issues with India at the 26 Octo...
Market Commentary
General Comments Markets were mixed overnight with corn steady, wheat slightly higher and soybeans slightly lower. Volume was quiet ahead of the last day o...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Europe Farm Policy; USDA in Good Hands
Europe Farm Policy A study by Chatham House, a subsidiary of the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, calls for a post-Brexit, market-orient...
Friday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
British Vets Assess Impact of Brexit
The next round of Brexit negotiations occurs 9-10 of November. As the saying goes, “the devil is in the details.” That is a point very m...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Oilseed Price Problem and Potential Actions; U.S. Soy Sales; FIRST Yield Trial Results
India May Raise Vegoil Import Tariffs and Subsidize Soymeal Exports The government of India (GOI) is under a great deal of pressure from farmers to do some...
NAFTA 2.0 or NAFTA 0.0?
We old-timers who have been involved in the grain business for many years (yes, there are a few of us left) have witnessed the benefits of trade first hand...
Market Commentary
General Comments The CME Group announced that its average daily volume of all types of futures contracts reached 14.9 million contracts in October 2017, up...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Thursday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
TPP Angle; Biodiesel Negotiations; Land Regulation
TPP Angle Briefers on President Trump’s upcoming Asia trip are not saying that he will press for bilateral free trade agreements with Japan, Vietnam...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 October 2017 Market Trends Grain prices showed little change as they mostly either remained stable or slightly decreased. GEOG...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Drops to Six-Month Low Delayed shipments of imported soybeans combined with strong feed demand have pushed China’s estimat...
Market Commentary
General Comments Overnight trading of grain and soy futures experienced better volume than has been seen recently, but this did not translate into signific...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Ag Review - October 2017
WPI's monthly publication featuring the following analysis in this issue: Biofuel’s Long Road Ahead U.S. Farm Profitability Outlook Changing D...
Wednesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Politics and USDA
Former Nebraska Director of Agriculture Greg Ibach has been confirmed as undersecretary of USDA’s Marketing and Regulatory Programs. He will join Dep...
Novel on Notification; Party sans Substance; Waste No Profit
Novel on Notification Hats off to the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) for developing a novel approach to remedying what is otherwise a problem of unaccoun...
Oilseed Highlights: Low Protein in U.S. Soybeans; Soy Health Claim; South American Weather
U.S. Soybeans’ Lower Protein Content Not Unusual A Reuters article yesterday correctly indicated the average protein content of the 2017 U.S. soybean...
The Tilt of Market Biases
The U.S. soybean harvest is in its final stretch. Meanwhile, the corn harvest is more than half done, although progress is behind the average rate for the...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s supply minister said that the government’s grain storage capacity totals 4.1 MMT an...
Market Commentary
General Comments Today’s Halloween market action cannot be described as being very scary, although Chicago and KC winter wheat contracts did fall to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Tuesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Tax Reform is Coming
Late last week, the House of Representatives voted to accept the budget resolution passed by the U.S. Senate, which provides for tax reform and would allow...
Production Standards Astray; Winnowing Support; Profit and Taxes
Production Standards Astray EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström reportedly agreed at an animal welfare conference last week that imported meat pro...
The Wonderful World of Wheat
It’s difficult to write about wheat when we are still reading the world is “awash” in it, and weekly U.S. export sales continue to be rat...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market continued to stay about unchanged last week. Russian exports will reach close to 15 MMT for the first four months of the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian market resumed activity last week as Chinese demand returned. There were some trades on the spot for November at $1.58-1.60X...
Market Commentary
General Comments The Sunday night markets were mixed with soybeans strong early, corn steady and wheat slightly weaker. Trading volume last night was prett...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Nonsensical Analysis
There are too many people, groups and companies, etc. trying to create analytical grain and oilseed market news. The years of the U.S. biofuels revolution...
Market Commentary
General Comments Markets were slightly easier in quiet trade again last night. Soybeans were trading 3-4 cents higher today, but corn and wheat mostly trad...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Next Week
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Politics and Biofuel Policy
Newton’s Third Law of Physics states that for every action, there is a reaction. That law also seemingly applies to renewable energy politics. As pre...
No is Not a Policy; Fame and Combat; Dazed and Confused
No is Not a Policy The U.S. announced in Geneva that there will not be a ministerial declaration in Buenos Aires later this year. This would be the first t...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports
Disappointing U.S. Soymeal Export Sales Last Week Yesterday’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated good sales for U.S. soybeans and soyoil last...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
MSPs for Key Crops Increased Before Sowing Season Begins The government of India (GOI) has raised the 2017/18 Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for rabi crops...
Friday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Too Much Malarkey; Competing against Treasuries
Too Much Malarkey Negotiations continue on a WTO agreement for the December ministerial in Buenos Aires, and some of the positions being asserted are absur...
Beef Outlook; Dietary Guideline Process Overhaul
Cattle and Beef Outlook According to USDA, the average dressed weights of slaughtered cattle for both steers and heifers increased in September vers...
Brexit and Market Regulation
If there is one thing that was proven during the 2008/09 financial meltdown, it is that such crises do not recognize national borders in this era of global...
Market Commentary
General Comments For grain and soy futures markets, it was another day of more of the same low trading volume, narrow price ranges and not much interest in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing futures prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Export Sale...
Thursday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Secondary Benefits; Don’t Be Fooled; Killing the Golden Goose
Secondary Benefits There are secondary benefits to legislation recently introduced in the U.S. Congress and backed by major farm organizations. The bill wo...
Oilseed Highlights: Biodiesel Duties; New Fungicide in Brazil; China’s Soybean Prices
Preliminary Duties Set on Argentine and Indonesian Biodiesel On Monday the Commerce Department announced preliminary antidumping duties on biodiesel import...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 October 2017 Market Trends Wheat prices fluctuated insignificantly. GEOGRAPHICALLY 3rd grade soft milling wheat prices f...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Drops Nearly 9 Percent on Strong Demand As demand for soymeal continued to surge following the holiday week, China’s estim...
Market Commentary
General Comments In the current environment, there does not seem to be much reason to trade the grain markets. Speculative money put into markets for stock...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Wednesday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Short-Lived Sugar Taxes
Many food and ag regulations/policies start off as state and/or local initiatives before spreading elsewhere. Animal welfare began with a referendum on swi...
Bye-Bye Science; Blockade after Doud; Sweet Substitution
Bye-Bye Science The European Parliament routinely votes against GMOs, and it did so again this week against three pending soybean events. Members complaine...
South American Weather is Key
The U.S. soybean harvest has progressed rapidly and the corn harvest more slowly. Meanwhile, winter wheat planting is plugging away at near the average pac...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Switzerland-based, Russian-owned Grainbow AG has launched a lawsuit against Egypt’s GASC, which i...
Market Commentary
General Comments The overnight trade in grain and soy futures showed signs of a “Turnaround Tuesday” as prices slipped slightly below Monday&rs...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was again about unchanged last week. Russian 12.5 pro wheat remains the cheapest origin for that quality for the main de...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Logistics are driving Argentina’s old crop corn market, and exporters are selling at negative margins. Meanwhile, new crop offers are increasing on a...
Oilseeds Redux; Live Test; Parties Reverse
Oilseeds Dispute Redux EU officials agreed to technical changes to the Common Agricultural Policy that, at least on the surface, appear to create more prob...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report this past Friday, and many of the pre-report industry estimates were accurate (see Ag Perspectives, 1...
Dicamba-Resistant Soybean Issue Might Not Be a Problem
WPI previously commented on the Dicamba chemical controversy (see Ag Perspectives, 7 August 2017). Dicamba-resistant soybeans, intended to replace the Roun...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week sharply steady in the Sunday evening session, and they then opened this morning basically steady with no evidence of any pent-up w...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Next Week
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
EPA Letter Bullish for Biofuels
The notice of data availability (NODA) recently released by the EPA (see Ag Perspectives, 26 September) was triggered by several issues, primarily the Comm...
Real WTO Reform
Back in 1998, WPI’s Carole Brookins first proposed what she called the “Golden Rule” before a WTO ministerial meeting in Geneva. She argu...
So Much Pain in Agriculture
There was an article making the rounds this week from Bloomberg, “There’s So Much Pain in Agriculture That Traders Are Leaving” (click he...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports Up and Expected to Increase Further India’s oil year 2016/17 (November-October) ends soon with all vegetable oil imports in the...
Market Commentary
General Comments Markets were higher overnight with soybeans up 3 cents, corn one half-cent higher and wheat up 2-3 cents. Volume was much better than othe...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Friday
WPI provides a list of coming USDA reports that will have market-moving interest to our readers. Reports included in this list span those covering feed gra...
Trump Bends on Biofuel; Support Revamp; Protection Sought
Trump Bends on Biofuel President Trump can be self-contradictory at times. However, when reminded of his pledge all across Iowa last year that he would &ld...
GIPSA Rule Repealed; Cattle on Feed
GIPSA Rule Repealed Nine years of USDA rulemaking just went down the drain this week. On Tuesday, the Trump administration repealed the Grain Inspection, P...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Indonesian Palm Oil; Chinese Soyoil Stocks; U.S. Corn and Soybean Plantings
Good U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report noted good success last week in the selling of U.S. soybeans, soymeal and soyoi...