A summary of positive economic data will be on the agenda for the Federal Reserve’s June meeting to decide on further interest rate hikes.The Federal Reser...
Articles
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI's notification of a new ban on the trading of cattle for slaughter is impacting a number of sectors in addition to farmers' income. There has been oppo...
WTO Changes; #1; Psychoanalyzing Trump
Donald Trump declared the WTO a disaster, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer says he wants to fix it. However, it is other members who are mov...
The Gospel According to Crop Ratings
USDA's weekly crop ratings report can be a valuable tool if market participants use them as a guide and not as a scientifically factual, reliable yie...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet much of the Thursday night session, but they gained a little steam early this morning and closed higher. USDA's announcement of a sale t...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s 2017/18 Soy Area Projection; Argentine Crush Capacity Expansion; India’s Vegoil Tariffs
While India's consumers are benefiting from more vegoil imports at lower prices, its farmers and processors find those low prices are making oilseeds unpro...
The Changing Grain Business
The grain business has substantially changed in many ways over the years, some of which can make achieving satisfactory profitability more difficult and co...
Market Commentary
One need only look at today’s price action to determine that markets had very little to trade on other than a generally improving weather outlook into mid-...
Interstate Barriers; Thank Trump; Product Evolution
Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris agreement, and now states, municipalities and companies are declaring their own effort to reduce emissions. I...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Record Cattle on Feed; Holy Cow: Indian Cattle Ban
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Turkish exporters are insisting that all Russian agricultural products be limited to 20-25 percent of the total volume of imports because of one specific c...
China In-Country Analysis
As China continued to intervene in its currency market, the cost of imported soybeans fell by $2/MT to $404/MT last week. Meanwhile, changes in the average...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
News Interpretations; Doud; Impeachment; Consolidation
A decision by the U.S. Supreme Court regarding ink cartridges could have implications for GM seeds and many other products, and its refusal to hear a...
Market Commentary
Although it may lack much long-term significance, yesterday's weekly crop condition report finally gave markets something to trade on. Soybean futures trad...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets turned slightly weaker as trading resumed last night. That continued into the day session this morning, and it soon accelerated under...
The Trending Summer Season
Each Memorial Day holiday marks the beginning of the U.S. summer growing season for spring-planted crops, and there are several observations related to cer...
Reading Between Merkel-Trump
The transatlantic war of words is unsettling, but it is long overdue. Germany previously ignored the all too subtle Obama administration’s request to meet...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Price Outlook; Brazilian Soy Sales; Tilapia Virus Alert
With the U.S. weather outlook now positive and U.S. soybean plantings apparently on normal track, soybean prices shouldn't remain as high as they are. Ther...
E15 Answer to Shrinking Ethanol Market
Looking ahead over the next eight years, it becomes clear that there will be less gasoline used in the transportation sector, which in turn means less oppo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Zimbabwean government is pushing ahead with plans for mandatory food fortification beginning 1 June 2017, including maize and wheat flour. Millers are...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat were slightly higher overnight with the soy complex slightly lower. Those trends continued today, but the changes then became noticeably lar...
Transatlantic Discussions; Currency Adjustment
The People’s Bank of China tried to use a more market-oriented approach to tying the value of the yuan to the U.S. dollar, but that is changing. Transatlan...
Barley Now A Specialty Crop
Barley acres have taken a significant brunt of the corn and oilseed acreage expansion in the U.S. and Canada, and there are a number of reasons why.The U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
An increase in the MSP for pulses incentivized farmers to expand their plantings, and 2016/17 production is projected at a record 22.4 MMT. However, those...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Red Meat Exports; Cattle on Feed Estimates; Faster Poultry Line Speeds; Strong Futures
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices edged slightly higher in quiet, low volume overnight trade. The slight overnight firmness evaporated first on indications of i...
Oilseed Highlights: China Advocates More U.S. Soybeans; Bad Chinese Crush Margins; Wet Weather and Canadian Canola; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
U.S. Winter Wheat Issues
With tightening supplies of HRW and concerns about new crop quality, it is reasonable to ask what is going on in the KC HRW futures market.U.S. winter whea...
Trumped Agenda; Ignore the Previous; Political Animals; China Cynic
China’s Commerce Ministry has issued a report on trade relations with the U.S. and publicizes the government’s commitment to increase imports from America...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
The day’s most active futures market was MGEX spring wheat. With building evidence that this year’s HRW crop will likely be unusually low in protein conten...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices fell across both the domestic and export markets for several reasons, a trend followed by its feed wheat prices. Meanw...
Kill People, Save Bugs; Consumer Miscalculation
Farmer and seed producer Mark Scholl spoke today at a Farm Foundation forum on food and agriculture regulations, lamenting that it now takes nearly twice a...
China In-Country Analysis
Entering the fourth week of the current round of state-reserved corn auctions, total sales of over 10 MMT have exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
In true “Turnaround Tuesday” fashion, soybean, corn and wheat futures gave back all of Monday’s gains plus more. Soymeal futures fell about $1.50, and soyo...
Trump Submits Budget Plan with Farm Bill Reforms
The 2018 Farm Bill debate just got a jump start with the submission of the president’s budget plan that includes a number of related reform proposals...
Taxicology; Adriukaitus Grows; Bittman Bitter
U.S. tax reform has caused fissures within fissures, and the House leadership’s border adjustment tax (BAT) is notably front and center with the effect on...
Uncertainties Ahead
Agricultural futures markets live for and exist on uncertainty since that is what creates volatility, which is their lifeblood. All the usual sources of do...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt’s GASC has raised the minimum protein requirements on its wheat tenders, and some indicate this may be a problem for one particular origin. Meanwhile...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Soymeal Exports; Canadian Soy Production; Russian Crush Plant; Chinese Soy Trade
The executive director of India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) expects the country’s soymeal exports to fall 25 percent below earlier projections b...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
The Complexities of Wheat
Wheat has been the whipping boy of the market for the past several years and the short leg of every spread. Unlike corn and soybeans, which are the same ar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmer selling stands at around 20 percent of the crop. However, the market dried up after the Brazilian political scandal moved the CBOT lower...
Punish Fake News; African Outlook; Cairn’s Call; Japan Dairy
The African Development Bank issued its African Economic Outlook for 2017. Notable were the factors it highlighted for leading to success on the continent,...
The Trump Budget’s Unusual Unveiling
The Trump administration’s FY 2018 budget proposal is expected this week, but the lack of political marketing is curious.The White House is scheduled to re...
Market Commentary
Markets traded steady to slightly higher overnight in average volume. Additional buying surfaced at today’s openings, taking wheat, corn and soybeans to mo...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India transitions into the new Goods & Services Tax (GST) regime to be rolled out 1 July, the tax rates for various goods have been announced. Meanw...
Complex Agenda; Muddle and Muddle; Quote of the Week
While the Trump administration notified Congress this week of its intent to renegotiate NAFTA, starting a 90-day window before the talks begin, trade polic...
Are Lower Broiler Exports to OPEC an Object Lesson for NAFTA?
Lower oil export earnings for OPEC countries have affected U.S. broiler exports; is there a lesson for the NAFTA renegotiations?We’ve long argued that the...
Oilseed Highlights: Unshipped U.S. Soybeans to China; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Soybeans and the Weather
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Ag Review: China's Soyoil Problem
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...
Market Commentary
CBOT soybean prices recovered today as political fears in the U.S. and Brazil were calmed. Wheat futures were higher, and one can now logically make a bull...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Corn Bullish – Maybe?
The corn market has been clearly bearish with analysts talking about record supplies amid increasing world production and greater competition for export sh...
Trading Politics
Commercial and noncommercial traders are accustomed to the difficulties and uncertainties involved in trading agricultural futures markets. However, all th...
Market Commentary
The tale of two presidents and their political problems has dominated grain and soy complex markets for the last two days, and they have had a notable impa...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Green Waste; NAFTA Nonsense; Chocolate; Stocks; Obvious
After ruling out imposing tariffs on ethanol imports from the U.S. due to concerns about retaliation, the Brazilian government will require that importers...
Chinese Chicken; Cheese Please
One lawmaker’s concerns over chicken imports may be a hurdle for U.S. beef access to China. Meanwhile, its growth in exports shows cheese is a new trend in...
China In-Country Analysis
Although China's landed price of imported soybeans fell $2/MT to $411/MT last week as the national inventory climbed slightly, another factor pushed the do...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's domestic grain prices continued to drop (in RUB) across most regions, and grain exports from its seaports during 5-11 May were significantly lower...
Market Commentary
Commodity markets were supported in general by the sinking U.S. dollar, which hit a six-month low today and has now given back its entire post-election ral...
Rural Downgrade; Facebook Science
USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue should find it easy to explain his proposed removal of the undersecretary for rural development position and budget cutting, an...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade was either dull as dishwater or exciting, depending on what one’s interest might be. KC wheat was a bit more interesting today,...
So Special; Science Disrupters; Wisely Beyond Friends
Demands by NGO groups in Europe to “fix the broken CAP” proved too much for even Phil Hogan, the most civil EU farm commissioner. So Special Demands by non...
A Fundamentally Mixed Bag
The supply side of the 2017/18 U.S supply/demand balance is being molded by crop production prospects. However, the demand side is being fashioned by quite...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
To protect its local crop, Morocco has reintroduced a significant tariff on soft wheat imports until the end of 2017. As in the past, tariff levels will be...
Ethanol Industry’s E15 Game Plan
The ethanol industry’s regulatory and legislative strategy to gain approval for E15 either by regulation or legislation is outlined.While E15 has been gene...
Oilseed Highlights: Organic Soybean Fraud; Chinese Subsidies; NOPA Crush Volume; Brazilian Soybean Forecast
The governments of China’s Heilongjiang and Liaoning Provinces announced last week that they will pay farmers higher subsidies to produce soybeans in 2017,...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were under some selling pressure in the Sunday night session with soybeans slightly higher on very light trading volume. Selling the...
China Opens to U.S. Beef – for Real This Time
The U.S. and China have reached a trade deal, which includes U.S. beef access to the Chinese market for the first time in almost 14 years. What can be expe...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria was quiet last week without any trades reported. Some parcels of both origins' 12.5 percent wheat are offered in t...
Singapore Silly; Wrong-Way Ag; Tuna Test; NAFTA/Commodities
The world’s third-largest financial capital and the country with the world’s second-largest volume of external trade per capita doesn’t trust trade. How el...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Low demand is the main reason for the lack of movement in Argentina's FOB corn market, and there are a few factors causing domestic and Brazilian consumers...
Soybeans Bullish – Seriously?
The soy complex continues to be the energizer of agricultural markets. However, Its rallying would seem to be impossible in the face of another record worl...
Market Commentary
USDA's friendly wheat and soybean estimates weren’t enough to spook the funds to cover lengthy short positions. They headed into this weekend short wheat,...
Very High Benchmarks – Can They Be Reached?
USDA’s May reports contained yield and production estimates for spring crops still being planted, so there are several important items to watch and conside...
Channeling Le Trump; Real Deal; Pungent Policy; Day Late
Much of U.S. agriculture has been hyperventilating that Donald Trump is going to get into a trade war and the resulting trade retaliation is going to hurt...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With a goal of doubling Indian farmers’ income by 2022, agriculture needs land reforms. This will require an increase in productivity and a move away from...
Policy Mélange
U.S. wheat will plunge 21 percent this year to the lowest level in nearly a century. The industry blames foreign trade barriers for its plight, but there i...
WASDE Recap; Nervous Cattle Markets
The May WASDE trimmed red meat and poultry production estimates but raised them for 2018. Meanwhile, cattle futures are deescalating quickly amid broad mar...
Trends and Consequences
While USDA's 2017/18 projections of early May are vulnerable to a multitude of moving variables that will ultimately determine the actual outcome, they can...
Market Commentary
Soybeans were a few pennies higher in overnight trading, while corn futures hung around just below unchanged. During the day session, however, prices for b...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE; China Soybean Update
USDA’s WASDE report of yesterday included some interesting changes to the oilseed sector forecasts for 2016/17 as well first projections for 2017/18 that a...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s domestic corn market remained solid last week despite ongoing pessimism over the quality of the auctioned state-reserve corn. There are only...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian holidays of 1-2 May and 8-9 May will influence grain prices, although market reaction will be delayed. Meanwhile, there were two other developm...
Money and Hypocrites; Shrinking Yield Folly; Nanny NaNa; Rigged
Overcoming their geopolitical concerns in the region and lingering animosity over WWII atrocities, the finance ministers for China, Japan and South Korea m...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Today’s WASDE with its projections for 2017/18 did not generate much market excitement. As might be expected, though, the corn market showed the biggest re...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s domestic corn market remained solid last week despite ongoing pessimism over the quality of the auctioned state-reserve corn. There are only...
The May WASDE
Although some of the 2017/18 projections varied from trade expectations, today’s WASDE did not offer anything of a serious market-moving nature. Neverthele...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Millers in Kenya are saying that they have not purchased all of the government’s released maize because of one cost-related issue. Meanwhile, the governmen...
Sweet and Pesticide Battles; EU Policy Clash; WTO Impasse
The election of Emmanuel Macron to the French presidency was viewed as a vote of support for broader Europe, but that doesn’t mean a lack of policy clashes...
Pork Farrow-to-Finish Forecast
This will again be a record year for pork production, but the impact of that along with more pigs and hogs is not as bearish as it may seem.This will again...
On With the 2017/18 Crop Cycle
USDA’s May WASDE is always interesting and, dare we say it, entertaining. Besides the usual old crop (2016/17) updates of U.S. and world supply/demand bala...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade seemed paralyzed by the prospect of Wednesday’s May WASDE. Markets then perked up some during the day session with a little more price acti...
Market Commentary
U.S. agricultural markets opened steady Sunday evening before gradually turning slightly easier on light volume. They then became markedly lower this morni...
Is Macron’s Election the First Step Toward a Stronger Euro?
The French election is being hailed as a victory for the EU, but that will be determined by France’s future fiscal policy. Yesterday Emmanuel Macron...
Competitiveness Agenda
The days when governments controlled the sale and purchase of commodities are long past. Moreover, certain tools of that era have either been eliminated or...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Algeria announced a tender today for July shipment, and the most likely origins are France, Germany and the Baltic. While the Black Sea new crop wheat for...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian soybean market showed huge movement during the past few weeks, especially in the June position. The interesting dynamic has recently been the...
USDA’s May Reports – More Questions than Answers?
USDA's May series of reports will be released this Wednesday. These represent its first attempt to project the supply/demand estimates for MY 2017/18 and a...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Rough Night in Jericho
Rough Night in Jericho is the name of an old western movie. As the title implies, things didn’t go as expected, and so it was with the wheat market this we...
Biodiesel Dumping Case Moving Forward
The USITC is considering punitive duties after finding “reasonable indication” of economic harm from Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel imports.The United...
Market Commentary
The one-day weather scare in wheat and the cold weather/planting issues across the Corn Belt didn’t alter the funds’ bearish stance. Meanwhile, the soy com...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India's edible vegetable oil imports are down and oil exports are up, reducing its forex exposure, the country will continue to depend on those parti...
Nose Cutter; Prohibition; Talent Loss
Mexican Senator and presidential candidate Armando Rios Piter has a way for his country to regain its dignity in the face of insults from Donald Trump: buy...
A Week Full of Crazy: Snowflake Edition
Last week was fully of crazy news for the livestock and meat sector with much of it involving snowflakes, both real and of the college variety. Blizzard Sn...
Questions Seeking Answers
Every business enterprise faces a changing multitude of questions, and agriculture is no different. Some of the questions, though, are a bit different this...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Slow Farmer Sales; Weekly Soy Export Sales; Brazilian/Argentine Forecasts; EU Soy Imports
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Rapid-Fire Summaries
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says that concessions agreed by the NAFTA partners during TPP negotiations can serve as a starting point for updating t...
Market Commentary
There was widespread weakness in many commodity markets today with grain and soy complex futures joining the march toward lower prices. Overall trading vol...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices continued to drop overall on the Russian grain markets, although there were slightly different patterns in a few regions. Meanwhile, Ukrainian grain...
Financial Stress; TTIP Lite
The attorney general for the state of New Mexico has launched a political witch hunt into beef processing companies, claiming ranchers are hurt by their si...
China In-Country Analysis
According to China Customs data, 181,900 MT of pork were imported in February, an increase of 153.8 percent compared with the same month a year ago. The on...
Market Commentary
Trading during the day session was quiet, and price action was choppy. The corn market does not seem to know what to do, so it trades narrow ranges in whic...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
How Sugar Could Spark NAFTA Renegotiations by June
The U.S. has set a hard deadline on the U.S.-Mexico sugar trade talks, backed up by a possible re-imposition of duties on Mexican sugar. Will that be the d...
Oilseed Highlights: EPA Approves Nematicide; Chinese Biotech Concerns; Brazil Soy Exports
Soybean processors and soyoil refiners in China are facing growing consumer resistance to purchasing soyoil from biotech soybeans, which could also have ra...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Flawed; Sour; Wrong; Double-Dealing; Implications
Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso had earlier warned that the U.S. might not get as good a deal bilaterally with Japan than it would by simply rejoin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Iraq’s Kurdish wheat farmers are very upset that the government only intends to buy 500,000 MT of their 1.8 MMT production. The government says that it doe...
A Few Random Thoughts
As the new month begins, there are a number of concerns and issues related to agricultural production and/or trade.We begin the Merry Month of May, as the...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade of grain and soy futures was not quite as frenetic as yesterday. Corn futures then traded in about an 8-cent range today, mostly to the red...
A New Month, A New Market
Funds increased all their short positions last week in the face of what looked like a bullish weather outlook over the weekend. While it will be several we...
Congress Strikes Deal on Government Funding Package
Congress has struck a deal on a funding bill to keep the government open through the end of FY 2017, and it also addresses many ag policy issues that WPI h...
Ignorance and Contradictions
Newly-minted USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue needs to tell his Commerce Department counterpart Wilbur Ross to mind his own portfolio. Meanwhile, former USDA Se...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Spain was quiet last week with local old crop barley being the cheapest available feed grain. The feed wheat there is competitive versus corn...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Farmer selling of corn in Argentina is still very slow and centered on nearby delivery months as well as expensive versus FOB prices. Exporters are paying...
Market Commentary
The funds started this week with a record-large short position in wheat, a big short in corn and moderate-to-small short positions in soybeans and soymeal...
Volatility and Growth; Money, Money, Money; Crops and NAFTA
The future of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations remains uncertain given the ample number of distractions in both Washingto...
The U.S. Economy in March
How will the economy’s performance in March impact domestic food demand?Economic data for March has been compiled, and it shows a solid performance. That s...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The federal government has issued recommendations for replacement of the old Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) Act. The aim is to remove the mid...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There are a number of issues, many weather-related, currently affecting crops in the U.S. and around the world.The Kansas wheat crop quality tour will take...
Market Commentary
Markets were mostly steady overnight with KC wheat higher. Soybeans traded with 1-2 cent losses much of the day and made a run at unchanged in the last few...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Ag Review: Can Exports Save the Dairy Industry?
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s ex...
G-33 Miscalculates; Winners and Losers; Right and Wrong
The Group of 33 developing countries complained in Geneva that the Uruguay Round imposed “inequities and imbalances” between rich and poor countries. ...
Market Commentary
Trading was notably quieter overnight and today than has been the case during much of this week. While obviously nervous, markets are not quite sure what t...
CFTC-SEC Merger Proposal Rises Again
This merger concept tends to materialize in the wake of real or perceived financial crises, and it is being heard once more following the election of a hig...
Trump’s Flip-Flop on NAFTA Withdrawal
A look at what is at stake for the meat, livestock, poultry and dairy sector with regard to NAFTA as well as if/how it might be renegotiated.As Gary Blumen...
Oilseed Highlights: Biodiesel Bill Introduced; Export Sales; Fishmeal Threatens Penguins
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
NAFTA Threat; Digitized Future
Withdrawing from NAFTA could lead to a trade war that will harm agriculture, and former Farm Bureau President Bob Stallman today emphasized a focus on impr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s average domestic corn price rose RMB 14/MT ($2.03/MT) to RMB 1,632/ MT ($237.20/MT) last week, driven by tight supplies of new corn and sever...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic crude sunflower oil prices remained stable last week with current offers within $820-832/MT EXW. However, they are likely to start falli...
Market Commentary
The day session saw trading volume fade some as the market tried to hang onto yesterday’s gains. There was more fund short covering in wheat, and those mar...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Increasing Market Volatility
The signs of budding potential weather scares are already beginning to show, and it seems quite likely that this will be another year when futures price vo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The MENA region has been the major destination for Black Sea wheat, but more of it is expected to flow elsewhere because of one development. Meanwhile, rep...
Oilseed Highlights: Canadian, Argentine and Indian Soybean Plantings; Brazil’s Biotech Crop
Although most expect that the current disparity in Argentina's export taxes will be enough to cause farmers there to continue decreasing their soybean plan...
Market Commentary
All the potential weather adversity has seemed to finally awaken fund managers holding huge short futures positions in Chicago wheat and corn as well as a...
Confirmation Bias; Jousting Northward; Corn Irony
The Trump administration imposed punitive duties on softwood lumber imports from Canada, and some see it as an opening offensive ahead of NAFTA renegotiati...
Ag Weighs in on Tax Reform
Congress and the administration are preparing tax reform proposals to be considered this year. In that regard, the House Agriculture Committee convened a h...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine soybean market was very active last week as four cargoes were traded, two CNF and two FOB. One full May shipment was traded at $0.98N CNF and...
A Few Surprises in Canada’s Acreage Estimates
Stats Canada released its first planting intentions estimates for 2017 last Friday, and there will be some enormous acreage swings in the U.S. neighbor thi...
Market Commentary
One would typically assume a slow planting pace coupled with what appears to be a very wet forecast would be supportive to corn and negative to soybeans. H...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record-High Placements for March
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Exchanging Youth; Wishy-Washy Standards; Circumstance Informs
The recent U.S. National Organic Standards Board meeting reportedly ended in confusion, revealing how the use of subjective standards gives rise to philoso...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Overstated and Misunderstood; Self-Defeating Ag Policy
As if he’d never paid a second of attention to bilateral trade issues before running for president, Donald Trump suddenly realizes that Canada operates a s...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight and in good volume. One development then continued to pressure corn today as wheat tried to mount a brief...
Federal Funding Deadline for Government Shutdown Nears
With the deadline to pass a federal funding bill in the offing, Congress is revisiting a strategy employed in 2014 that kept the government open.A week fro...
A Look at U.S., Canadian and World Barley Supplies
The 31 March USDA planting intentions reports indicated notable changes ahead for U.S. barley acreage, and there are several reasons why.Barley acres in th...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While GOI is continuing to procure local wheat for the MY 2017/18 program, imports are still feasible despite the 10 percent duty with one particular origi...
Market Commentary
In overnight trade, soybeans were helped by firmer Asian markets with corn and wheat prices also slightly higher. Daytime selling then pushed prices into t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Nationalism; TTIP; VAT Benefit
Donald Trump’s effort to initiate a “Buy American; Hire American” obligation is economic nationalism at its rawest, but it is hardly unique. Nationalism Ab...
Oilseed Highlights: Road Problem in Brazil; Export Sales; The EU Protein Balance Sheet
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Two Sides to Every Story
There can be no denying that today’s supply/demand fundamentals tell a very bearish story, but there are factors, both real and potential, that just might...
Red Meat Recap and Margin Outlook; Cattle on Feed
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Turkey's recently-introduced import duty on some agricultural products from Russia has reportedly already caused some damage in the sphere of its grain and...
DEIP the Canucks; Trump PO’d at TPA
Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. David McNaughton may be correct that his country’s pricing policy on ultrafiltered milk may be WTO legal, but that doesn’t...
China In-Country Analysis
China has set a goal of expanding its biofuel portfolio, not only to absorb the massive corn reserves but also to diversify its energy platform. However, i...
Market Commentary
After trading an inside day, the soybean market managed to hold onto some of its small session gains with soyoil as the engine. Meanwhile, all three wheat...
Market Commentary
Palm oil futures dropped another 1 percent overnight to a new eight-month low, which pulled soyoil futures down as well. Dalian corn and soy complex future...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Only American; State and Local; Reversals; Poor Luddites
Donald Trump’s recent reversals on foreign policy positions that he took during the campaign (NATO obsolete; Russia friend/China enemy; Syria unimportant)...
Smaller Birds, Bigger Demand
Broiler slaughter weights are below year-ago levels for the first time in three years, and demand is up ahead of the traditional seasonal growth trend.Acco...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA’s March Crush Volume; Canada’s Soybean and Canola Areas; Chinese Crush Margins and Soybean Prices
Leaders of Canada’s soybean industry expect the soybean plantings there will total 10 million acres by 2027. However, the sector has a notable problem with...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
USDA-FAS indicates Turkey’s wheat stocks could drop to less than a two-week supply, the lowest level in more than 50 years. This is not totally attributabl...
Uneven Outlook for U.S. Wheat Classes
The 2017/18 crop cycle will be somewhat of an historic year for U.S. wheat in that the total area planted to all classes will be the smallest since 1919. M...
Wheat Market Still on Life Support
The primary reason for longer-term optimism in the wheat market is that U.S. planted wheat acreage will be the smallest since 1919, and there are two numbe...
Trump’s Twists; Mergers; Economy and Crops
This is a busy week with bilateral exploratory trade talks in Tokyo where American expectations are high and the Japanese are resistant as Prime Minister S...
Court Decision Makes Livestock Operations Report Air Emissions
The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals has reversed a Bush-era EPA rule that exempts livestock CAFOs from reporting air emissions, which could cost swine, poult...
Market Commentary
Soybeans traded 5-6 cents higher early in the Sunday evening session, but those gains couldn’t be sustained either overnight or today. Corn followed the sh...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
April and May corn basis have started to heat up in Argentina due to several factors. There are still some shorts in the market, and those with port logist...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU reported 231,000 MT of wheat were exported last week and once again corrected the previous week’s total. Now Turkey has been actively buying high pr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Indonesian Minister Says No Palm Oil to EU; Brazilian Corruption
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Weather Scare Season
As the 2017/18 new crop cycle gets underway in the Northern Hemisphere, it is inevitable that new weather scares will emerge to energize or torment market...
Import Substitution; CAP War; Back to Bite; CRISPR’s Threat
Japan is proposing to remove food products from eligibility for duty-free entry under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). This is intended to addr...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets ended this short trading week in fair fashion. Soybeans and corn closed higher, and wheat finished with the winter wheat cont...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China and U.S. Meat Exports; GIPSA Rule
China will increase its meat imports this year, potentially including U.S. beef. Meanwhile, USDA action this week has further delayed the livestock marketi...
Trump Manipulates Currency; Government Mishandles Data
U.S. government statistical agencies would like farmers to automatically share the data they collect via their electronic precision agriculture (PA) equipm...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian oilseed prices continued to decline overall, but Ukraine's were mostly stable with just a few drops noted along with some increases. Its crude sunf...
Market Commentary
It was the day after the April WASDE, but the approaching long Easter weekend (CME grain markets are closed Friday) seemed to have had a greater impact on...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
China's monthly food inflation entered negative territory in February for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, prices for animal protein, including pork,...
Market Commentary
Some of USDA’s fresh numbers released in today's April WASDE were tilted more bearishly than analysts predicted, but none were extreme enough to caus...
The April WASDE
USDA’s April WASDE unsurprisingly carried forward the theme of growing supplies of grains and soybeans in the U.S. and the entire world. While it is all to...
Oilseed Highlights: Forecasts; South American Planting Intentions
Today’s USDA/WASDE report included several changes of pertinence to the oilseeds sector. Meanwhile, one particular development will challenge South America...
NAFTA Strategies; Self-Flagellation; Xenophobic Soda; Bombs for Beans
The government of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is still trying to figure out what to expect and how to position itself in the upcoming renegotiat...
Senators’ Polling Numbers and the Farm Bill
Will political polling back home impact the Senate Agriculture Committee’s drafting of the farm bill?As former House Speaker Thomas “Tip” O’Neill (D-Massac...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Grain experts in South Africa are saying that the very large increase in the maize crop there and drop in maize prices could push farmers into a money-losi...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets were steady to a bit higher at the start of trading Sunday night. That trend continued through the night and into today’s o...
No Bullish News Tomorrow
USDA will release its April WASDE report with supply/demand revisions tomorrow, but it is almost impossible to make a case for why any of those numbers wil...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU reported that 237,000 MT of soft wheat were exported last week as the total since the campaign started remains notably lower than a year ago. Meanwh...
100 Days’ High Risk; Le Pen Predictions; Automation
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping created a U.S.-China Comprehensive Dialogue that has 100 days to show progress or all hell breaks loose. Trump made a wise dipl...
U.S. Dairy Calls for Trade Action Against Canada
A new milk pricing regulation implemented in Canada on 1 April has the U.S. dairy industry calling for the Trump administration to take action against that...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil’s soybean market rebounded last Friday after nearly three weeks of steady declines, driven by the presence of one important variable. This week’s pr...
Xi-Trump Summit; Missed Chance
The most notable outcome of the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents is the lack of fireworks. Meanwhile, business groups developed a wish list...
U.S. Corn Outlook
The 31 March USDA planting intentions report confirmed what most analysts expected. The big question is whether the acreage reduction will be enough to app...
Ethanol Stocks at All-Time High
Ethanol stocks have hit a record high, while production is still exceeding 1 million barrels/day despite the seasonal slowdown.Ethanol production dropped s...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Following the landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh, there is hope that the government will be able to move forward with p...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets were unaffected by the events in the Middle East. Corn, wheat and soybeans all finished the night session within a penny of uncha...
Records for Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which showed the swine herd was still larger than a year ago despite a small drop during the December 201...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Nominations; Government Shutdown
The U.S. Senate is now scheduled to vote on the nominations for USDA secretary and USTR after returning from the Easter recess. Notably, support for the la...
U.S. Agriculture’s Stake in China
While U.S. relations with China are tense, due in no small part to President Trump’s harsh rhetoric and threats, U.S. grain and soybean producers have quit...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Parliament Says No Palm Oil for Biodiesel; More Rain in Argentina; Protest Blocks Brazilian Shipments; Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Market Commentary
Open interest in corn, soybeans and wheat futures were all higher following yesterday’s activity, which suggests that noncommercials were adding to s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
After closing out 2016 with a solid November and a record December, U.S. sorghum exports to China began 2017 by setting a new record for the month of Janua...
Market Commentary
Aside from higher Asian futures levels and Chinese buyers’ rush to extend their coverage of Brazilian soybeans, a few troubling weather trends also brought...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's grain prices continued to fall due to domestic factors as well as Turkey’s introduction of an import duty, but Ukraine's grain prices remain...
Slay Monetary Monster; Slay Agriculture Monster
Donald Trump will be tempted to raise the issue of currency manipulation when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but he would be barking up the wr...
Soybeans Move Further West and North
The westward movement of soybeans in the U.S. has been occurring for many years as hardier, shorter-season varieties have been developed. That is expected...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets struggled to find enough traction for a rally overnight and today. Corn, soybeans and wheat all traded above Monday’s closes at some...
The Battered Soybean Market
It is hard to recall when the soybean market has been so battered by an avalanche of bearish news and inputs over the course of a month’s time. However, th...
COOL a Priority for Both NAFTA and State Law
Just a year after country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) was repealed, beef and pork producers are seeing plans to revive it come from the Trump administration...
Canada’s Fakery; Japanese Reality; Trump Jobs; TTIP Death
Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau warned New York business leaders at a World Economic Forum event against a proposed U.S. border adjustment tax. Mean...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey and Russia are expected to hold discussions soon regarding the rescinding of duty-free status for certain imports from the latter. The loss of those...
Federal Reserve Portfolio Management
The Federal Reserve has made clear that it recognizes the need to address its balance sheet. How it does this, though, remains the question.New York Federa...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean futures all started 2-3 cents higher Sunday evening and basically held at those levels for the balance of the night session. Chicag...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Rains delayed soybean and corn harvest progress in South America last week, creating the possibility of significant market impacts later. The rally in CBOT...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
The Soy Complex Must Fight Some Bearish Numbers
Last Friday’s USDA soybean quarterly stocks and planting intentions numbers were bearish, but there are several variables in the projections for next year...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
South Korea purchased 125,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat for July/August shipment at an average price of $188.50/MT CNF, reflecting about $160/MT FOB...
Trump Fumbles on China; Russia FDI; Other Trade
A pro-active liberalization agenda in Geneva by Russia would be out of character, and so its proposal on foreign investment is underwhelming, yet still uni...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) addressed several trade matters as it issued decisions regarding import duties on wheat, pulses and sunflower seeds as well a...
Market Commentary
The morning trade reflected the expectations for today's USDA reports with corn and wheat continuing higher and soybeans lower. The amplitude of the market...
High Non-GMO Bar; Brexit and Trumpism
European Court of Justice Advocate General Michal Bobek had some difficult-to-swallow guidance for member states when it comes to GMOs – use science. High...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
USDA Reports versus Expectations
The bearish acreage number for soybeans in today's USDA reports wasn't helped by the 1 March quarterly stocks estimate. Meanwhile, corn and wheat markets s...
Draft Outline for NAFTA Renegotiation
The Trump administration has prepared a draft letter notifying Congress of its intent to renegotiate NAFTA, which spells out the objectives while pledging...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
NAFTA Goals; Faulty WTO; Secession
A draft text of Trump administration negotiating objectives for modernizing NAFTA reflects an undramatic change from the Obama administration’s trade polic...
Cattle on Feed; McDonald’s Going to Fresh Beef
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Accounting for Hedges
The concept of establishing a futures position that was equal but opposite to a position in the cash commodity, first practiced by buyers and sellers of gr...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were lower overnight, receiving no help from Asian markets with Dalian meal and corn futures both weaker and Malaysian palm oil plungi...
Oilseed Highlights: Crackdowns May Drive Up Indian Soymeal Demand; Good Soy Exports
Crackdowns on unlicensed abattoirs (slaughterhouses) that had been slaughtering cattle have caused a widespread shortage of meat in several Indian states...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Turkey's introduction of import duties on certain goods from Russia has driven the latter to a nearby, alternate source for sunflower oil. Meanwhile, Ukrai...
China In-Country Analysis
New shipment arrivals have helped restore the drop-off in imported soybean stocks that occurred through the first three weeks of March. As with soymeal inv...
Options Strategies for the Prospective Plantings Report
Given the market volatility that often follows the Prospective Plantings report, several options strategies exist to profit from extreme market movements...
Market Commentary
As might be expected with major USDA reports due mid-session Friday, trading was muted today with slow volume and small price changes. If there was a marke...
Dairy Competition; Pest Friendly; No Brexit Trade; Unsweet
EU chief negotiator on Brexit Michel Barnier says there will be no trade deal with Britain if London decides to impose weaker regulations than the Continen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 March 2017Market TrendsPrices continued to fall due to domestic factors as well as Turkey’s introduction of import duties for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Influencing Grain and Soy Prices Ahead
This Friday’s USDA reports are an important influence on grain and soy price action for the next three months, but there are other factors looming that can...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt has advised that the maximum allowable moisture level of 13.5 percent for imported wheat will be maintained until November 2017, at which time it wil...
Brazilian Meat Scandal in Perspective
While the effects of the Brazilian meat scandal are still unfolding, following are some perspectives on its impacts.While the effects of the Brazilian meat...
India Informs Trump; Kettle of Fish; Nominations/Economy
U.S. catfish farmers have spent years attacking the imported competition as being produced with harmful and illegal chemicals. Now a recent finding that ha...
Oilseed Highlights: Biodiesel Antidumping Petition; Revised Soy Forecasts for Brazil; Argentine Soy Yields
The National Biodiesel Board (NBB) and U.S. biodiesel producers last week filed an antidumping petition with the Department of Commerce (DOC) and the U.S...
Market Commentary
It was a very dull day of trading in which commercials were largely hands off and funds were net buyers of minor quantities. Collectively, managed funds ha...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
What Do We Do Now, Ollie?
Laurel & Hardy originally posed the question, “What do we do now, Ollie?” However, it remains relevant today for participants in the grain markets. Giv...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn has been the favorite of the South American market for the second week in a row with large volumes traded. The Argentine harvest advanced to 16 percen...
Japan’s Leverage; Local Food Hoax
U.S. agriculture and industry hope to claw back the market access that they had come close to gaining in Japan with the TPP by negotiating the same terms i...
Market Commentary
The selling pressure continued across the wheat markets, and the soybean market was underwater all day today as the downtrend continues to gain some moment...
Perdue Confirmation Hearing Recap
Sonny Perdue’s confirmation hearing focused on budgets, crop insurance and trade, but it may still be some time before he’s finally confirmed and longer st...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Although Russian wheat prices continued to erode, the overall effects were tempered by a firmer ruble. Bulgarian farmers have started planting corn, but th...
Soybean & Corn Export Forecasts Are Too Low
With enough corn and soybeans committed for export thus far in the marketing year to account for 98.5 and 83 percent of USDA’s projections, respectively, U...
Market Commentary
Corn and soy complex markets were weaker to finish the week as fund selling continued. Chicago wheat gained on fund buying relating to improving export pro...
Usitc Petitioned To Look At Biodiesel Dumping In U.S.
The biodiesel industry filed an antidumping and countervailing duty petition against Argentina and Indonesia, just as the EU did in 2013, and is now recons...
DDGS Outlook
Despite a prolonged struggle to gain higher prices, DDGS merchandisers are reporting significant buying interest when FOB prices near $150/MT. WPI’s econom...
No Honor; Regulators Trusted
Reducing greenhouse gas emission while concurrently growing economically is difficult, thus encouraging cheating or changing the rules. Elsewhere, green gr...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is facing a possible tight sugar supply situation with lower-than-expected production and higher-than-expected demand. India is considering import du...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
In spite of bullish Export Sales report numbers for corn and soybeans, lack of commercial support left grains and oilseeds market drifting lower. Today’s r...
Brazilian Meat Scandal, Growth in U.S. Red Meat Consumption
A meat inspection bribery scandal has taken one of the world’s largest meat exporters out of the global market – the same exporter who gained when the U.S...
World Wheat Trade Risks
Whether the search for a suitable risk management tool for Black Sea wheat will ever exist is unclear, though the competition to create such an instrument...
Job Challenges; Agribusiness Structure
Different policy impacts of different cabinet appointments create outsized contrasts to confirmation hearings. Elsewhere, the KC Fed focuses on agribusines...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Technical support helped soybean futures prices bounce off of session lows by 4-5 cents as they traded both sides before closing. Meanwhile, wheat futures...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While most Ukrainian feed grain prices remained stable, feed barley and corn prices moved in different directions. However, Russian grain prices continued...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s estimated soymeal inventory totaled 773,300 MT as of 10 March, a significant drop from the previous week and even more so from a year ago. Lo...
Golden Goose; Notable Studies
Mexico is threatening to retaliate against adverse trade measures adopted by the Trump administration, and U.S. agriculture is justifiably concerned. Mexic...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey's imports of Russian wheat are no longer considered to be duty-free, according to some sources, which could lead to a 130 percent tariff. Meanwhile,...
Ag Review: 2017 Cow/Calf Profitabitiy Outlook
WPI Agribusiness Subsector OutlookWPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future...
The Market’s Waiting Game
The period between the March WASDE and 31 March stock/acreage reports often finds markets struggling to find anything approaching excitement. One might rea...
Oilseed Highlights: Fewer Indian Soy Plantings; Paraguay’s Big Soy Crop; Indonesian Biodiesel; Slow China Biotech Approvals
The American Chamber of Commerce in China complained this week about the government’s slow approval process regarding new biotech crops, which most notably...
China NME and VAT; Acting, Nominated and PAS
The U.S. and the EU argued in Geneva that they should not be required to treat China as a market economy despite a commitment to do so back when it initial...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Reading the Fed’s Notes
The Federal Open Market Committee moved to raise the federal funds rate at its most recent meeting, but everything else remained status quo.Following up on...
Market Commentary
Soybeans traded slightly lower overnight as did corn and wheat. After trading resumed in the day session, commercial buying of soyoil futures sparked a ral...
Market Commentary
Hot, dry weekend weather drove the wheat market higher in the overnight session, though more moderate weather forecasts issued today pulled the market back...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Black Sea wheat prices were lower last week on farmer selling and lack of export demand. Soyoil is now priced at a discount to sunflower oil, ending an ext...
Ethanol Exports Facing Potential Problems in 2017
Ethanol exports are starting the year strong, but there is some uncertainty in major markets.The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASD...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s corn market was active this week and the advancing harvest pressured FOB prices where premiums for 15-March fell to $0.46K. The soybean harvest...
Meeting Season is Over
Despite bearish prices and long-term weather forecasts for U.S. crops, farmers’ attitudes are not bad. Re-energized with a focus on basic farm management a...
Go Status Quo; Supply Restrictions
There is no such thing as free trade but Germany and Japan are calling for a concerted effort to defend it. Elsewhere, the U.S. considers joining the EU, Z...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
G-20 Language Knot; Conservation Sacrifice; Unsafe Language
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made clear at the G-20 meeting that the Trump administration does not want a trade war and merely seeks fairness in...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's wheat prices dropped at the start of this year's harvest, gradually increased and then stabilized at about Rs.17,000/MT ($250/MT) at the spot marke...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly lower overnight in light trading volume, and that pattern didn’t change much during today’s session. Soybeans were 3-4 cent...
The “Dead” Zone and Market Issues
Markets are now in the midst of a two-three week “dead” zone as there is simply very little to inspire trade movement in either direction. There are, thoug...
Accounting for the Trump Budget
The Trump budget plan for USDA is long on cuts and short on specifics.The Trump administration sent a partial budget proposal to Capitol Hill yesterday, wh...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Oilseed Highlights: Mixed USDA Export Sales Report; NOPA’s Surprise Crush; Brazil’s Farm Subsidies
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices traded a bit higher overnight in sort of a delayed reaction to the U.S. dollar’s weakness surrounding the Fed’s announcement Wednesday...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Reflation Trade and Reality
Pursuit of now-President Trump’s policy agenda seemed to promise that the rate of inflation, essentially stagnant since 2009, would very likely begin to ri...
Mis-Prophets of Agriculture; Worse to Come; Cabinet Schedule
Europe’s anti-chemical warriors are aghast that the European Chemicals Agency gave glyphosate a clean bill of health – it is not carcinogenic to consumers...
Budget to Trim Statistical Capabilities of USDA; More HPAI Discovered
The president’s budget and the HPAI situation both have good news and bad news for the industry. Budget to Trim Statistical Capabilities of USDA The White...
Loss Leader; No Threat
U.S. farmers were happy this week with word that China had bought significant quantities of their corn. However, it involves a slight bit of substitution...
Market Commentary
Grain and soybeans traded slightly higher overnight for the most part, and trading volume was modest. Those trends carried over into the day session as the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Under the influence of world market trends, Ukraine's soybean prices showed a significant change last week. Meanwhile, the proximity of the next planting s...
China In-Country Analysis
A combination of low commodity prices and an early Chinese New Year helped U.S. agricultural exports to China reach new heights in January. Meanwhile, Chin...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Wheat Market Puzzles
If U.S. wheat futures prices and cash values are higher during the forthcoming wheat year because of the small domestic crop, will world wheat traders and...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures prices weakened again under pressure from the harvesting of a record Brazilian crop and clear evidence that buyers are focusing on that ori...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Trump Budget Coming to Capitol Hill
President Trump will send his proposed budget to Capitol Hill on Thursday of this week, setting the stage for a potential government shutdown in April.The...
Reaping Commitments; Reorg Hurdles; Oversimplification
Fearing Trump-induced trade wars and being sacrificed in favor of factory jobs, U.S. agriculture groups primed Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Ro...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A recent report in South Africa indicated that the poultry industry needs expanded production of feed maize and soybeans in order to help control prices. W...
Oilseed Highlights: Growing Soymeal Demand; More Planting Forecasts
Despite all the turmoil in the MENA region over the past two decades, soymeal consumption there has continued to rise. This is largely attributable to one...
Searching for Clues From the Federal Reserve
A rate hike resulting from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting is almost a foregone conclusion, but there is more to look for from the Fed’s actions.It wil...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower to start this week and seem firmly entrenched in last week’s pattern. Prices were slightly down overnight, but wheat turned sharply lowe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Activity in Argentina's FOB corn market is totally focused on nearby shipments (March, April and May). Prices for April shipment heated up as many of those...
U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Still in Trouble
U.S. winter wheat acres will be the smallest in 107 years, and conditions in two key states suggest no reason to expect improvement in production numbers a...
Schedule Negotiation; CAP Simplification; Chemical Attacks
The renegotiation of NAFTA is going well. Mexican Minister of the Economy Ildefonso Guardardo Villarreal says all three countries will be ready to sit down...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
After three months of constantly rising prices, the Black Sea milling wheat market has finally turned lower for several reasons. Meanwhile, Bulgarian feed...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The revival in Indian protein meal exports has had a positive impact on the domestuc soymeal price. It was $342/MT on 9 March 2017, a 29.77 percent drop fr...
Farm Bill Tidbits
Farm bill proposals are emerging from producer groups and legislators alike, but there are questions. Will USDA put forth a farm bill plan? Will acreage id...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Although the market can now put the South American soybean crop in the rearview mirror, one potential problem remains. Meanwhile, the U.S. southern Plains...
Market Commentary
Markets were easier overnight and today following Thursday’s slightly bearish USDA report, good South American harvest weather and a poor technical outlook...
Ag Japan Mumm; Navarro’s Mirage; Vote on TPP
In economic-speak, National Trade Council Advisor Peter Navarro is genuinely paranoid. The view he expressed to a group in Washington is analogous to the p...
The March WASDE
The trade expected a more-or-less bearish tone from USDA’s March WASDE, and that is what it got. However, the overall tone is probably louder than most ant...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Report’s Oilseed-Related Changes; Revised Brazilian Soybean Crop Forecasts
USDA made relatively few major changes in its supply and distribution estimates for oilseeds today, but a couple were quite significant. Meanwhile, two oth...
Dissecting Japan and Europe; Subsidizing Competitors; Lowly in Rome
Eastern European members complaining that food companies sell inferior products in their part of the EU should be informed by the American experience. Diss...
Dairy Margin Protection Program Reforms for Feed Costs
House Ag Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-Texas) outlined the key areas for the next farm bill at the recent Commodity Classic and indicated the indus...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were lower overnight in lackluster, low volume trade. Then today’s USDA WASDE with its larger Brazilian and Argentine production, lar...
Market Commentary
From the limited price action, it is clear that the market is not expecting big changes from tomorrow’s March WASDE. There is some sentiment that USDA migh...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s corn market showed some signs of recovery last week as the average domestic price rose RMB 18/MT ($2.61/MT) to RMB 1,505/MT ($218.43/MT). It...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Chinese Chuckles; U.N. Dupe; G-20 Fake News
North Korea is ignoring Beijing by firing off missiles and holding Malaysians hostage after being caught red-handed in an assassination in their country. T...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices started falling, more noticeably when expressed in USD due to weakening of the ruble. Meanwhile, Ukraine's grain market saw prices mos...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt advises that a new project to establish a database of all poultry production in the country, covering as many as 250 million birds, is intended to ai...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices eased back into the red during the early morning hours. Those weaker prices then carried over to the day session when the market’s att...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy Crop Estimates Revised; More Indian Soymeal Exports; Russia Soymeal Shortage
It has been reported that Russia is experiencing a shortage of soymeal that is likely to worsen in the future. This is a result of certain government...
A Conflicted Soybean Market
Despite the large fund investment in the soybean market, soybean futures prices have stayed in a trading range during the past two months that reflects the...
Energy Trade Under NAFTA
While there has been much focus on manufactured goods and agriculture, there is one sector of North American trade that has been largely overlooked in term...
Transatlantic Thrashings; China Bashing; Counterintuitive
Activist groups in Europe are upset about new reports that reveal high levels of acrylamides in biscuits and French fries. Fortunately, there is a solution...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
More Competition for the Dakotas’ Soybeans
While soybean production continues to expand rapidly in the Dakotas, the only processing plant located in either state is in Volga, South Dakota. However,...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
HPAI Outbreak Confirmed in Tennessee
In a rare Sunday public statement, USDA’s APHIS yesterday announced the discovery of a strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on a commercial b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Activity in Brazil’s soybean market remains concentrated in the spot, but the Chinese are placing bids on March, April and, eventually, part of May positio...
SWAT Event; CAP Reform; Process Labeling
There is plenty of division as EU agriculture ministers began debate today on the post-2020 Common Agricultural Policy. Farmers want simplification and no...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The trade is interested in buying Bulgarian/Romanian feed wheat for July/August at €157/MT ($167/MT) FOB. While Ukrainian origin might be available at the...
Market Commentary
Wheat actually led the grains complex higher as soybeans and corn turned lower. The KC-Chicago wheat spread remains strong with higher values likely given...
Reversals: Fortunes; Perspective and Production
This week agricultural trade specialists gathered in Washington to lament the current atmosphere created by the Trump presidency and its risk to the sector...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Oilseed Highlights: Pace of U.S. Soy Sales; Revised Forecasts for Brazilian Soy Crop and EU Rapeseed Crop
With Brazil now aggressively exporting new crop soybeans, yesterday’s USDA report indicated U.S. export sales of soy continued at the expected pace. Meanwh...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat prices have softened quite a bit in the past five weeks as imports have been good. While there has been no official announcement yet, it is being spe...
Big Insurance Guarantee for Soybeans
A comparison of today’s calculations with those of 2011 provides insight into one of the driving forces behind the rapid escalation in land values du...
Top Seven Reasons Why RFS Reform Will Happen in the 115th Congress
RFS reform is gaining congressional attention, if not momentum.As Gary Blumenthal wrote this week (see Ag Perspectives, 1 March), Representative John Shimk...
Market Commentary
Corn traded mostly steady today with light volume. PNW corn export basis was up 15 cents overnight with most of that likely the result of logistics issues...
Market Commentary
Prices continued to slide lower during the day session. Fund buying largely subsided, and some of the light-footed funds were selling back limited amounts...
Hyperbolic; 15 March; Aid; Conflict; Naked Farming
Newly-installed Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has indicated that Congress will be officially notified on 15 March that a renegotiation of NAFTA is being s...
Pork and Chicken Surprises; Chicken Price Index Dropped
Year-to date-pork production is down from expectations, and chicken production is off to a fast start. Where’s the Pork? Pork packer margins have dropped p...
The Tale of Three Crops
With market attention soon shifting to prospects for the new crop year, it is worth noting some of the “big picture” fundamental similarities and differenc...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Agriculture Minister Aleksandr Tkachov has forecast the country’s MY 2016/17 grain exports at about 37 MMT, a drop from the ministry’s previo...
RFS Rewrite; Paid Diversion; USA Void
Donald Trump is pulling the U.S. back from its international commitments, and the result is that it is strengthening the roles of other countries and regio...
Market Commentary
Funds were active buyers again today. The ethanol situation grabbed the headlines, but there were a few other bullish straws in the wind to help support th...
China In-Country Analysis
Despite a decline in the landed price of imported soybeans to $425/MT last week from $435/MT the previous week, the crush margin remained under significant...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights: Muddy Roads Delay Brazilian Soy Shipments; EU Compound Feed Production
The European Feed Manufacturers Association (FEFAC) indicates compound feed production in the EU-28 declined 1 percent in 2016 to 153.4 MMT, largely becaus...
Ag Review: Farm Equipment Outlook 2017
2016 Agribusiness Performance Recap and 2017 OutlookWPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expec...
Future Biofuels Policy Clear as Mud
Erroneous news leaks regarding biofuels policies sent commodity markets on a wild ride and prompted a rebuttal from the American Petroleum Institute. Amid...
The 2017/18 U.S. Corn Outlook
WPI releases its first forecast for the 2017/18 U.S. corn crop with planted area and yield above USDA estimates. Ending stocks are forecast...In conjunctio...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A recent Rabobank report says the poultry industry will grow more than 60 percent over the next 20 years, but the expansion will be far greater percentage-...
Jonesing; WTO Failure; Ethanol; WOTUS; Cuts; Infrastucture
The U.S. maritime industry needs to start supporting national defense and stop hiding behind it while the WTO needs to educate its poorer members – and Don...
Market Commentary
Markets raged higher on rumors of biofuels regulation reform from the White House, while large deliveries were noted against many grain futures contracts...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
After the corn harvest delays of last year, most Argentine exporters cut their programs for March shipment in order to reduce high demurrage rates should t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Wars: Food; Labor; Science
The U.S. farm sector is nervous about Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal laborers. Those workers may account for half the labor in sectors such as dairy...
A Big One Falls
One of North Dakota’s largest farmers filed a Chapter 7 bankruptcy petition recently. Most will blame the collapse on the downturn in commodity prices. Whi...
Market Commentary
Tomorrow is first notice for delivery against the March futures contracts, and markets are expecting heavy deliveries in Chicago wheat and soyoil. It is al...
China Plans High-Value, Improved Quality, Large-Scale Agriculture
China's so-called Number 1 Document has been released, which is focused on agriculture and rural policy. While reaffirming some key policies already in pla...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Farmers in Bulgaria and Romania will start planting corn in a few weeks. They will probably reduce that acreage after suffering from low yields during the...
OPEC Production Impact on U.S. Crude Supply
OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia and Iraq, actually increased production in advance of the 1 January 2017 implementation of their agreement to r...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight with corn and wheat slightly lower and soybeans slightly higher. That trend continued today, but the losses in one market acce...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Advantage or Threat; Warring Ministers; Regionalism
A WTO appellate panel unsurprisingly ruled against Russia and its total prohibition of EU pork and pigs due to localized outbreaks of swine fever. The juri...
Do Smaller U.S. Ending Supplies Signal a Price Shift?
The market was particularly interested in USDA's 2017/18 U.S. supply and demand estimates of today, which have to be considered at least somewhat price pos...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's production of milk, egg and poultry meat continues to grow, but most of that is consumed by a simultaneously expanding population. However, its buf...