Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Articles
Breaking Down U.S. Wheat Classes
While traders had become accustomed to a world wheat market dominated by other origins, the U.S. wheat crop in 2017 has drawn more market attention than du...
Guts Poker
The current U.S. (and Canada) growing season has not been as perfect as in the past three or four years, and it is starting to look much like guts poker, a...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
A few trades of Bulgarian feed wheat were reported last week at €159/MT ($182/MT) FOB. After one particular development, though, the market is offered at €...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian soybean basis moved sharply higher this week as Chinese buyers suddenly wanted to purchase August soybeans, both FOB and CNF. The basis CNF react...
Agricultural Trade Policy Moving
The EU, Brazil, Peru, Colombia and Uruguay have together proposed new disciplines on domestic agricultural supports. By contrast, the largest U.S. farm gro...
New Animal Disease Strategy Still Dependent on Traceability
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) Veterinary Services office announced an animal disease response plan, but that is dependent on th...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybean and wheat futures finished the evening session about unchanged. Minneapolis wheat futures were then firmer this morning, soybeans turned high...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Domestic Supports; NAFTA; Crop Prices
Many WTO members would like to see new disciplines on domestic supports, but there is far from a consensus on how much and where. Future of Domestic Suppor...
Restaurants Come Out Against E15
As previously reported, with the growth in ethanol production and production efficiency (see Ag Perspectives, 16 May) along with the mandated trend to grea...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI's 26 May notifiation of new rules that effectively banned the trading of cattle, including buffaloes, for slaughter at animal markets was met with a pe...
U.S. and World Wheat
There are several differences between WPI's wheat production estimates by country and USDA's 12 July numbers. The net result, though, is a significant shif...
Restaurants Come Out Against E15
As previously reported, with the growth in ethanol production and production efficiency (see Ag Perspectives, 16 May) along with the mandated trend to grea...
Market Commentary
Weather risk isn’t over yet, and the grains markets traded accordingly. Elsewhere, cattle and hog futures followed divergent paths as their fundamentals sh...
Restaurants Come Out Against E15
Legislation to approve E15 blends of ethanol is moving in the Senate, but it has garnered opposition from the National Council of Chain Restaurants.As prev...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Imports and Purchase Agreement; WASDE; U.S. Soy Export Sales
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
KORUS Leverage; Europe’s Ag Strategy
The U.S. has requested a joint committee meeting with South Korea under the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) with the goal of making it a “more bala...
U.S. Meat Exports Losing Leverage in Japan
The EU has negotiated a trade deal with Japan following on the Japan-Australia agreement of 2015. With the U.S. pulled out of the TPP, U.S. red meat export...
Market Commentary
If anyone needed a tutorial on the dangers that lurk in weather markets, today’s grain and soy markets provided one. Longs may have taken a beating, but en...
Takeaways from the July WASDE
The northern Plains drought and the erratic, potentially threatening weather for crops in the western Corn Belt invested yesterday’s July WADSE with perhap...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia and Ukraine have both released the total volumes of their respective grain exports for MY 2016/17. Ukraine has also reportedly experienced a very si...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. wheat exports to China during January-May 2017 totaled 980,206 MT at a value of $229.7 million, surpassing the entire volume for all of 2016. The U.S...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. wheat exports to China during January-May 2017 totaled 980,206 MT at a value of $229.7 million, surpassing the entire volume for all of 2016. The U.S...
Refugee Value; Localization
University of Notre Dame researchers tracked refugees entering the U.S. in terms of outcomes and found there was one critical factor in success rates. Refu...
Market Commentary
The July WASDE conveyed an overall bearish tone for the grains, but it was mildly supportive for soybeans. As expected, it diverted market attention away f...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt's problem with ergot has always been with the standard for wheat, which has been revised higher. However, the acceptable level has remained at 0.0 pe...
EU Ag Council to Consider Soya Declaration
The proposal, which is intended to address the EU's feed protein deficit through a series of steps, is scheduled to be considered at the council...
Africa Realism; DET Dumping; Hamburg Hypocrites
U.S. biodiesel producers are now seeking retroactive antidumping and countervailing duties on imports of competing product from Argentina and Indonesia. Af...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was quite large again overnight, but it then slowed during the day session with prices recovering to levels around Monday’s closes. It was a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Ag Appropriations Bill Directs FDA on Regulating Plant-Based Milks
Heretofore, the FDA has been uncooperative with the dairy and meat industries' fights against use of the terms “milk” and “meat” by plant-based substitutes...
Many Questions, Few Answers
USDA’s July WASDE has grabbed only modest attention in recent years. However, circumstances have changed the intensity of interest as this year's edition c...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The milling wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria was quite active last week as many farmers took advantage of one particular development. Meanwhile, weathe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The wheat markets are quiet with not much business reported for new crop since they heated up two weeks ago. Wheat with 11.5 percent protein rose to the mi...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Soybeans continue to lead the markets higher on the continuing treat of hot, dry weather encompassing more of the northern Plains and Corn Belt. Corn, thou...
The Weather Market Has Arrived
There hasn’t been one in the U.S. since 2012, and USDA is currently using the second-highest corn and soybean yields ever in its supply/demand analysis. It...
Appropriations Bill and Budget Resolution This Week?
The House of Representatives is likely to take up both the ag appropriations bill and the FY 2018 budget resolution this week. What will that mean for agri...
G20 Trade Realism; Risky Forecasts
The OECD and FAO issued their annual long-range outlook (2017-2026) for global food commodity prices, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office makes the sa...
Market Commentary
The soybean story seems to be more about weather than demand. Today’s issue was that it is a Friday and forecasts can change over the weekend. Meanwhile, w...
Is the Wheat Rally Real?
Minneapolis futures had an incredibly volatile week, but nothing really changed from a fundamental aspect other than the hard red spring wheat crop got sma...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Even though the MSPs for pulses and oilseeds have been increased for the khariff season, the market prices for the former are much lower. As a result, farm...
Is the “America First” Approach Changing Biofuel Policy?
The U.S. EPA has released the proposed 2018 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for biofuels, the first such issued by the Trump administration, and it sign...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Squandering a Pittance; Barking Up the Wrong Tree; Italy First; New Market
The G90 is a group of poor developing countries that certainly deserve empathy, but their latest demands for policy change at the WTO ministerial in Buenos...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures prices are more or less following their own path and ignoring the gyrations of the wheat markets as those futures fell victim to their own...
What the HRS Market Tells Us
For traders who have become used to a price movement of 25 cents being a big deal in grain and soy futures markets over the past few years, the current MGE...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Crush; Brazil’s Soy Exports; China’s Soybeans; French Biodiesel; Lower Cotton Prices
French Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot today indicated his country’s government will take steps to restrict the use of non-sustainable palm oil and soyo...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
What’s Ahead for Hog Prices?; PEDv in Canada; Ethanol Volumes; Woody Breast Syndrome
Hog prices are about to hit the summer doldrums, but how will they compare to last year’s levels? Meanwhile, PEDv is making a comeback in Canada, the EPA r...
RIN Investigation; Ag Export Hearing
U.S. EPA announced a review of the Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) system that undergirds the fuel ethanol utilization program and has issued a req...
China In-Country Analysis
The average producer’s prices for soymeal and soyoil increased RMB 3/MT ($0.44/MT) to RMB 2,710/MT ($400.3/MT) and RMB 114/MT ($16.84/MT) to RMB 5,90...
China In-Country Analysis
The average producer’s prices for soymeal and soyoil increased RMB 3/MT ($0.44/MT) to RMB 2,710/MT ($400.3/MT) and RMB 114/MT ($16.84/MT) to RMB 5,90...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The trends in Ukraine's milling wheat, feed wheat, and feed barley markets all changed last week, influenced by the start of the 2017 harvests. Meanwhile,...
Market Commentary
As a result of current weather forecasts, today’s futures markets seemed undecided about price direction as grain and soy prices swung back and forth in wi...
Self-Righteous Trade; A Rose; Biofuel Cut
The U.S. dairy industry has been fighting use of the term “milk” by nondairy products for nearly 20 years, and now the meat industry is gearing up for a fi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
The soy complex started firm overnight on the warmer, drier weather forecasts, and Minneapolis wheat futures continued to charge ahead last night and today...
Trade Trouble; KROUS Redux; Back to Bite; Fuel Fight
The historical criticism is that America’s economic interests have taken a backseat to national security objectives, and despite his rhetoric demanding fai...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian market quickly became stronger last week. Two factors drove basis higher, especially in the CNF market where the most liquid position has bee...
Record Swine Herd
USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs report shows a record swine herd and future stability in the sector.USDA’s most recently released quarterly Hogs and Pigs re...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The demand for feed wheat at current prices is difficult to find as corn is about $10-20 cheaper. In Spain, the spread between Brazilian corn and Bulgarian...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The July 4th holiday in the U.S. typically marks the start of the most critical period of development for the corn and soybean crops, and there are several...
U.S. and China: Is the Honeymoon Over?
Trade talks between the U.S. and China yielded early and unexpected positive outcomes, which may now be in jeopardy.Foreign policy concerns took precedence...
USDA Reports Positive Soybeans, Negative Corn
Today’s USDA acreage and stocks numbers didn’t contain any big surprises, but there were a few small ones.Today’s USDA acreage and stocks numbers didn’t co...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India rolls out its new Good and Services Tax (GST) starting 1 July 2017, the largest tax reform in quite some time is expected to possibly make Indian...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
China’s Selective Interpretation; Precision Economy; Africa’s Burden
China is reportedly “concerned” by the impending Trump administration decision on whether to block certain steel and aluminum imports on the grounds of nat...
Market Commentary
Soybeans had quite a trading range today, triggered by more bullish USDA stocks and acreage numbers than expected, and there was no stopping wheat in any o...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Vegoil Tariffs; High Methionine Soybeans; Canadian Oilseed Plantings; Soy Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Korean Curtsy; Trump Risks; WTO Agenda Outlook
The EU utilizes direct payments as a farm support mechanism, and they are considered the least distorting approach. Now, however, the CAP is under severe b...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex started out slowly with mixed price action, but volume picked up and prices began to firm as traders contin...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
This Week’s Reports
Today's report from Statistics Canada and tomorrow's from USDA should present a good picture of how land has been planted with the major grain and oilseed...
Cattle on Feed Way Up; Independence Day Cookout Slightly Cheaper
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week’s landed price of imported soybeans dropped $14/MT to $387/MT even as the yuan fell slightly against the U.S. dollar. That lower cost, howe...
Market Commentary
The looming USDA reports and weather uncertainties are combining to constrain trading in grain and soy futures. The general quiet trend continued during to...
Ag Review: U.S. Grains and the Weather Market
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices once again fluctuated insignificantly in RUB expression, but they decreased in USD expression as the ruble continued to weaken. Meanwh...
Daft on NAFTA; Inverse Trade Views
The purpose of free trade negotiations is to reduce the barriers to cross-border transactions, but some want to use the “modernization” of NAFTA to actuall...
EU-Japan; NAFTA +/-; Kowtowing; Budget Bobbing
EU negotiators are reportedly anxious to close a free trade agreement with Japan. Meanwhile, a report by the Congressional Research Service identifies the...
2017/18 U.S. Wheat Outlook
A great abundance of wheat supplies in the U.S. and a record-large volume in the world were the dominant features in 2016/17 that resulted in relatively lo...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices firmed in rather active overnight trade, and a similar pattern followed in the day session. Shrinking spring wheat production...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey is seeking changes to its customs union with the EU. Industrial goods are currently covered, and there is talk of possibly adding agricultural produ...
Oilseed Highlights: Fungicide Development; Soybean Condition Ratings; Bangladesh’s Rising Soy Imports
Bangladesh is importing increasingly higher volumes of soybeans, and it has added a substantial amount of new processing capacity in recent years after rea...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
House Appropriators Release Ag Funding Bill
Tomorrow the House Appropriations Committee’s subcommittee on Agriculture will consider farm and food program spending for FY 2018.The House Appropriations...
232; Modi Monday; By Christmas; Don't Say Doha
The Trump administration is expected to release its Section 232 report late this week. The U.S. agriculture community is concerned that extrajudicial actio...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil’s soybean market is rebounding after weeks of weakness, and soybean production estimates are finalized in Argentina. Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s market...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybeans and Minneapolis wheat futures traded higher overnight, while KC and Chicago wheat traded lower. Markets then traded slightly higher all day...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The GASC purchased 55,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat and 120,000 MT of Romanian origin last week, paying $207-209/MT CNF for 25 July-10 August shipment. There w...
Border Adjustment Tax Idea Is Fading
Two of the top leaders in Congress, the speaker and the House Ways and Means Committee chairman, are running into stiff opposition to their border adjustme...
Status of Barley and Oat Crops
The focus on the northern Plains drought has been on its potential impact on hard red spring wheat production, and that is important for several reasons. H...
Distrust; TTIP Phoenix; Self-Flagellation
Japan is cool toward a bilateral free trade agreement with the U.S. after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expended his political capital last year on the TPP. Ne...
Trump on Ag: Rhetoric and Reality Gap
President Trump gave a speech in Iowa this week focusing heavily on ag, especially biofuels issues, but it is what was between the lines that raises some c...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Wheat Keeps Getting More Interesting
As spring crop ratings plunged again last week and hard red winter wheat protein levels continue to be a concern, issues with wheat production outside of N...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The overall sowing of pulses crops in India is down 33.74 percent as of 23 June versus a year ago. Farmers are facing challenging planting decisions as som...
Market Commentary
It is tough to have a corn or soybean rally in June when temperatures are below normal and there is at least some precipitation in the forecast. Wheat, led...
Selective Free Trade; GMO Suit; Salty; Local
EU leaders have spent ample time criticizing the “America First” message of Donald Trump and proclaiming faith in free trade, but their message will be dif...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
New Season for USDA Reports
On 30 June, the new season of USDA reports gets well underway. USDA may have a longer history of reporting on world agriculture than any other entity, and...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Monsoon and Soybean Plantings; U.S. Soyoil Exports to Korea; Soy Export Sales; South American Soybean Updates
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Cattle on Feed; Fat Fight
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Market Commentary
The decline of corn and soybean futures prices in overnight trading accelerated during the day session as the July contracts for both moved below technical...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Trading volume overnight was better than might be indicated by the lack of price movement, but it was unimpressive during the day session. Later during the...
China In-Country Analysis
Two factors enabled the Canadian pork industry to greatly benefit in the past year from a surge in exports to China, hitting a record of nearly 314,000 MT...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices continued to decrease on the domestic market during the week of 12-16 June, reflecting the end-of-season trend. However, exp...
An Important Three Weeks
While the grain and soy complex markets have already been in the early throes of a weather market, the next three weeks will provide a wide variety of fres...
Oilseed Highlights: China Subsidy; EU and Soymilk; Argentine Soybeans; Potential Big Soy Buy
China had already implemented a subsidy this year to encourage farmers to plant more soybeans, and that production is likely to be even higher as a separat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Experts in South Africa are saying that the bumper 2017 grain crops will lead to lower prices for dairy products, meat and other grain-dependent items. Bec...
Market Commentary
Corn and soy complex futures traded rather quietly overnight with minimal price changes. However, wheat prices moved higher again. During the day session,...
Ethanol Stocks and Exports Up, Domestic Use and Margins Down
Driving demand for fuel has been slower than expected so far this year, and refinery runs are increasing. This means exports and inventories of petroleum p...
Regulating Food; License; African Contrasts
Efforts to reduce consumptive diseases has produced a slew of regulatory responses, including labeling, taxes and educational efforts. However, a study com...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Is U.S. Weather the Only Game in Town?
Markets have been concentrating on the start to the U.S. growing season, and that will continue to be the dominant market factor for the next 30-60 days. H...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Bulgarian feed wheat price has increased sharply since last week as it followed the MATIF wheat futures rally. Consequently, the spread between that an...
Market Commentary
It was interesting that corn’s losses were being blamed on a better weather outlook, but that same forecast didn’t push soybeans lower. The soy complex was...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Old crop wheat prices have been depressed for months now, mainly due to exporters’ big long positions and slow, small Brazilian demand. Argentine wheat is...
Narrowing the Fed’s Balance Sheet
In addition to raising the federal funds rate at its 13-14 June, the Federal Reserve addressed the issue of how it will roll off its massive holdings of se...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The federal and state governments have been unable to buy grain/oilseeds/pulses at the declared MSP, and GOI wants the private sector to lower the prices o...
Market Commentary
Minneapolis wheat futures took the lead again in overnight trade, and that pattern followed through at the day session opening. The uncertainty today was t...
It’s Weather Time
It is now past the prime reproductive period for small grains (spring wheat, durum, barley, oats, etc.), and the critical weather period for corn and soybe...
Where Ag Finds Itself on Trade
Who could have predicted the situation in which the U.S. ag sector now finds itself with Mexico and China?As the saying goes, “Don’t judge a book by its co...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
State of the Food Economy
Word that Amazon is buying Whole Foods sent shock waves through a food industry already wobbling from the enormous changes being incurred. First and foremo...
2016/17: A Year for Exports
The U.S. contributed to the world production records in 2016/17 by harvesting its own record corn and soybean crops. Also impressive has been the continued...
China; COOL; Cattle Outside of Feedlots
One of China's requirements in its agreement regarding U.S. beef shipments is traceability, and Senator Jon Tester (D-Montana) has noted this is a model fo...
Oilseed Highlights: India’s Vegoil Imports; French/German Rapeseed Production; Silo Bags in Brazil; Iranian Soy
Bumper corn and soybean crops along with low prices have caused Brazilian farmers to hold back a larger-than-normal share. Largely limited to using silo ba...
Market Commentary
Overnight losses were gradually reduced during the day session. Today’s futures market price action suggests that traders are still concerned that hot, dry...
Milk Shake; Beef Hurdles; NAFTA Issues; Shorts
USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue appeared to be referencing the ultrafiltered milk issue when he stated that Canada’s dairy processing schemes were key to the f...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
China In-Country Analysis
Although China’s yuan continued to gain ground on the U.S. dollar, last week’s landed price of imported soybeans rose $5/MT to $402/MT. The ave...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian sunflower seed oil prices fell on the domestic market and remained stable on the export market, influenced by two developments. Meanwhile, grain...
Market Commentary
Wheat markets tried hard to keep the rally going today, but the effort ran out of steam in the face of light selling from recent longs taking profits. Corn...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The latest USDA/FAS report is projecting Turkey’s 2017/18 soybean imports will be up by about 400,000 MT over 2016/17 forecasts of 2.45 MMT. Domestic produ...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Details of U.S.-China Beef Deal Reached
The beef industry is still reviewing the new regulations for resuming shipments to China, and that analysis will lead to assumptions about export volumes n...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices moved higher across the board overnight as several developments caught traders' attention. Their reactions were tempered, however, by...
Outlook for U.S. Spring Wheat
Grain and soy market futures prices have mostly been moving up or down for the past two weeks, and the star performer has been MGEX spring wheat futures. B...
Unsustainable Splintering; Farm Policy Splintering; Robotic Benefit
The U.S. rural credit entity Farmer Mac issued its quarterly report called The Feed, which indicates that wage rates have risen faster in production agricu...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Soy Farmers’ Woes; Argentina’s Wet Land and Soybeans; Change in U.S. Canola Plantings
Sunflowers have long been the top softseed produced in the U.S., reaching 3.44 million acres of planted area in 2009, with canola a minor crop by compariso...
Import Substitution; Biofuel’s Contribution; Hunger’s Roots
Encouraging domestic production is better than imposing import barriers, although relying on the market and comparative advantage is even better. Import Su...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Based on CNF prices, Brazil's soybeans traded for June at $1.06N China and for July at $1.17N. Eexporters there are checking export margins daily to determ...
Weather Market Vagaries
Markets were down rather hard today. They started lower in the Sunday evening session, and those losses accelerated once today’s trading session got underw...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Egyptian GASC purchased 240,000 MT of Russian wheat and 120,000 MT of Romanian origin over the weekend, paying $204.02-206.40/MT CNF for 10-20 July shi...
Market Commentary
A little less heat and perhaps a bit more rain coupled with a slightly bearish USDA supply/demand report last week brought sellers to the soy complex today...
House Ag Committee Dubious About Eliminating Food Aid Programs
The president’s budget proposed draconian cuts to international food aid programs, but Congress is skeptical.The president’s FY 2018 budget proposal (see A...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Political Economy; Consolidation; Impeachment
8 June was quite eventful with the Conservative government of Theresa May taking a beating in the polls and Donald Trump, whether he realizes it or not, bl...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) have been increased in each of the three years of the Modi government. While perhaps a good political tool, these higher pric...
Higher Number of Smaller Cattle Impacts Beef Production
How much longer will cattle trend toward lighter slaughter weights?Today’s WASDE report lowered earlier estimates of total 2017 beef production based on li...
Market Commentary
After being lower overnight, the market was kept tentative today by that along with a few other issues. In addition, it must be remembered that this is Fri...
Uninspiring USDA Reports
Not much inspiration was expected from today’s USDA reports, and that’s exactly what they delivered. However, there are a few important factors to keep in...
Record Choice Select Spread; U.S.-Canada Dairy Spat Goes Beyond NAFTA
The demand for higher grade beef has been driving up cattle prices. Meanwhile, more countries are joining the U.S. regarding its concern about Canada’s new...
Unlocking Infrastructure; Weighing Food Aid
The lock and dam system in the U.S. is a crumbling mess, and the industry has been split on how to fix it. Whether or not Trump’s plan breaks that divide,...
Transition and Turmoil
The first week of June is usually when grain and soy markets shift their attention to the growing of U.S. spring-sown crops, a transition that has been tum...
Market Commentary
The grain and soy market’s bullish drumbeat continued to roll overnight. Prices then moved still higher as trading resumed during the day session, and MGEX...
Oilseed Highlights: Record Chinese Soybean Imports; Pakistan Buys Soybeans; Poor U.S. Soy Sales; Canada's Imperiled Canola Crop
While wet fields have prevented farmers from planting canola in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan, there is now a growing threat to the crop in southern Sa...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
China In-Country Analysis
China's average domestic corn price remained steady at RMB 1,670/MT ($245.23/MT) last week, but that market is facing mounting pressure with more state-res...
Market Commentary
There is no doubt that we are in a full-fledged weather market just now, one that developed rapidly enough to catch noncommercial shorts. When July corn pu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices mostly remained unchanged or grew slightly as Ag Minster Aleksandr Tkachov revised his 2017 grain production forecast on 1 June. Meanw...
Balkanized Food; Projected Welfare
Donald Trump receives ample criticism from Europeans for his “America First” proclamations, but the only difference is his transparency since n...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights; Sunseed Production; New Palm Oil Varieties
The company SMART Tbk has developed two new clones of oil palms via conventional breeding techniques, and they have been shown to produce much higher yield...
USA versus PRC; Taxes before Building; Sugar Solution
Former five-time Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad contradicts Donald Trump by saying that the remaining countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership...
Wheat on the March
Old habits are often hard to break, but bearish fund managers are undoubtedly becoming nervous about their short wheat positions and probably with good rea...
Market Commentary
The overnight session was relatively quiet with barely average trading volumes and prices that were mixed but without much change. Then today it was the su...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
It is being suggested that most of South Africa’s possible 3 MMT of maize exports this year will be used in East Africa, although some countries there will...
U.S. Sugar Industry Abandons Deal with Mexico
Despite a detailed agreement that addresses almost all U.S. concerns over Mexican sugar imports, the U.S. industry does not support the pact.U.S. Commerce...
Spring Wheat Supplies Getting Smaller
Weather is quickly starting to raise concerns about the northern Plains spring wheat production potential, and the simple explanation is that it has become...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week for the old crop and about $2 firmer for the new crop. Two factors have helped the July/August pric...
Market Commentary
The week started with a wildly unexciting day in the markets. News was scarce, as the price movement verified. The widening drought across the northern Pla...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian soybean market has moved even further into the spot positions. As exporters need to use their facilities, several trading houses went short b...
Asia’s Trump; Science Battle; Trade and Emission Rhetoric
Donald Trump was elected as the anti-establishment candidate in the U.S., and now Moon Jae-in is fulfilling that role as the new leader of South Korea. His...
NAFTA Sweeteners: Let’s Make a Deal
After nearly two-and-a-half years of trade negotiations over sugar, last month the U.S. commerce secretary put a hard deadline on the talks. A deal now app...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet much of the Thursday night session, but they gained a little steam early this morning and closed higher. USDA's announcement of a sale t...
WTO Changes; #1; Psychoanalyzing Trump
Donald Trump declared the WTO a disaster, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer says he wants to fix it. However, it is other members who are mov...
The Gospel According to Crop Ratings
USDA's weekly crop ratings report can be a valuable tool if market participants use them as a guide and not as a scientifically factual, reliable yie...
Economic Data for the Fed to Consider
A summary of positive economic data will be on the agenda for the Federal Reserve’s June meeting to decide on further interest rate hikes.The Federal Reser...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI's notification of a new ban on the trading of cattle for slaughter is impacting a number of sectors in addition to farmers' income. There has been oppo...
Record Cattle on Feed; Holy Cow: Indian Cattle Ban
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Interstate Barriers; Thank Trump; Product Evolution
Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris agreement, and now states, municipalities and companies are declaring their own effort to reduce emissions. I...
The Changing Grain Business
The grain business has substantially changed in many ways over the years, some of which can make achieving satisfactory profitability more difficult and co...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s 2017/18 Soy Area Projection; Argentine Crush Capacity Expansion; India’s Vegoil Tariffs
While India's consumers are benefiting from more vegoil imports at lower prices, its farmers and processors find those low prices are making oilseeds unpro...
Market Commentary
One need only look at today’s price action to determine that markets had very little to trade on other than a generally improving weather outlook into mid-...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Turkish exporters are insisting that all Russian agricultural products be limited to 20-25 percent of the total volume of imports because of one specific c...
China In-Country Analysis
As China continued to intervene in its currency market, the cost of imported soybeans fell by $2/MT to $404/MT last week. Meanwhile, changes in the average...
Market Commentary
Although it may lack much long-term significance, yesterday's weekly crop condition report finally gave markets something to trade on. Soybean futures trad...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
News Interpretations; Doud; Impeachment; Consolidation
A decision by the U.S. Supreme Court regarding ink cartridges could have implications for GM seeds and many other products, and its refusal to hear a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Zimbabwean government is pushing ahead with plans for mandatory food fortification beginning 1 June 2017, including maize and wheat flour. Millers are...
E15 Answer to Shrinking Ethanol Market
Looking ahead over the next eight years, it becomes clear that there will be less gasoline used in the transportation sector, which in turn means less oppo...
Reading Between Merkel-Trump
The transatlantic war of words is unsettling, but it is long overdue. Germany previously ignored the all too subtle Obama administration’s request to meet...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets turned slightly weaker as trading resumed last night. That continued into the day session this morning, and it soon accelerated under...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
The Trending Summer Season
Each Memorial Day holiday marks the beginning of the U.S. summer growing season for spring-planted crops, and there are several observations related to cer...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Price Outlook; Brazilian Soy Sales; Tilapia Virus Alert
With the U.S. weather outlook now positive and U.S. soybean plantings apparently on normal track, soybean prices shouldn't remain as high as they are. Ther...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
An increase in the MSP for pulses incentivized farmers to expand their plantings, and 2016/17 production is projected at a record 22.4 MMT. However, those...
Barley Now A Specialty Crop
Barley acres have taken a significant brunt of the corn and oilseed acreage expansion in the U.S. and Canada, and there are a number of reasons why.The U.S...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat were slightly higher overnight with the soy complex slightly lower. Those trends continued today, but the changes then became noticeably lar...
Transatlantic Discussions; Currency Adjustment
The People’s Bank of China tried to use a more market-oriented approach to tying the value of the yuan to the U.S. dollar, but that is changing. Transatlan...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Red Meat Exports; Cattle on Feed Estimates; Faster Poultry Line Speeds; Strong Futures
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Oilseed Highlights: China Advocates More U.S. Soybeans; Bad Chinese Crush Margins; Wet Weather and Canadian Canola; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices edged slightly higher in quiet, low volume overnight trade. The slight overnight firmness evaporated first on indications of i...
U.S. Winter Wheat Issues
With tightening supplies of HRW and concerns about new crop quality, it is reasonable to ask what is going on in the KC HRW futures market.U.S. winter whea...
Trumped Agenda; Ignore the Previous; Political Animals; China Cynic
China’s Commerce Ministry has issued a report on trade relations with the U.S. and publicizes the government’s commitment to increase imports from America...
China In-Country Analysis
Entering the fourth week of the current round of state-reserved corn auctions, total sales of over 10 MMT have exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, the...
Kill People, Save Bugs; Consumer Miscalculation
Farmer and seed producer Mark Scholl spoke today at a Farm Foundation forum on food and agriculture regulations, lamenting that it now takes nearly twice a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices fell across both the domestic and export markets for several reasons, a trend followed by its feed wheat prices. Meanw...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
The day’s most active futures market was MGEX spring wheat. With building evidence that this year’s HRW crop will likely be unusually low in protein conten...
Market Commentary
In true “Turnaround Tuesday” fashion, soybean, corn and wheat futures gave back all of Monday’s gains plus more. Soymeal futures fell about $1.50, and soyo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Trump Submits Budget Plan with Farm Bill Reforms
The 2018 Farm Bill debate just got a jump start with the submission of the president’s budget plan that includes a number of related reform proposals...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt’s GASC has raised the minimum protein requirements on its wheat tenders, and some indicate this may be a problem for one particular origin. Meanwhile...
Uncertainties Ahead
Agricultural futures markets live for and exist on uncertainty since that is what creates volatility, which is their lifeblood. All the usual sources of do...
Oilseed Highlights: Indian Soymeal Exports; Canadian Soy Production; Russian Crush Plant; Chinese Soy Trade
The executive director of India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) expects the country’s soymeal exports to fall 25 percent below earlier projections b...
Taxicology; Adriukaitus Grows; Bittman Bitter
U.S. tax reform has caused fissures within fissures, and the House leadership’s border adjustment tax (BAT) is notably front and center with the effect on...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
The Complexities of Wheat
Wheat has been the whipping boy of the market for the past several years and the short leg of every spread. Unlike corn and soybeans, which are the same ar...
Market Commentary
Markets traded steady to slightly higher overnight in average volume. Additional buying surfaced at today’s openings, taking wheat, corn and soybeans to mo...
The Trump Budget’s Unusual Unveiling
The Trump administration’s FY 2018 budget proposal is expected this week, but the lack of political marketing is curious.The White House is scheduled to re...
Punish Fake News; African Outlook; Cairn’s Call; Japan Dairy
The African Development Bank issued its African Economic Outlook for 2017. Notable were the factors it highlighted for leading to success on the continent,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmer selling stands at around 20 percent of the crop. However, the market dried up after the Brazilian political scandal moved the CBOT lower...
Complex Agenda; Muddle and Muddle; Quote of the Week
While the Trump administration notified Congress this week of its intent to renegotiate NAFTA, starting a 90-day window before the talks begin, trade polic...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India transitions into the new Goods & Services Tax (GST) regime to be rolled out 1 July, the tax rates for various goods have been announced. Meanw...
Corn Bullish – Maybe?
The corn market has been clearly bearish with analysts talking about record supplies amid increasing world production and greater competition for export sh...
Market Commentary
CBOT soybean prices recovered today as political fears in the U.S. and Brazil were calmed. Wheat futures were higher, and one can now logically make a bull...
Oilseed Highlights: Unshipped U.S. Soybeans to China; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Soybeans and the Weather
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Ag Review: China's Soyoil Problem
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...
Are Lower Broiler Exports to OPEC an Object Lesson for NAFTA?
Lower oil export earnings for OPEC countries have affected U.S. broiler exports; is there a lesson for the NAFTA renegotiations?We’ve long argued that the...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Trading Politics
Commercial and noncommercial traders are accustomed to the difficulties and uncertainties involved in trading agricultural futures markets. However, all th...
Green Waste; NAFTA Nonsense; Chocolate; Stocks; Obvious
After ruling out imposing tariffs on ethanol imports from the U.S. due to concerns about retaliation, the Brazilian government will require that importers...
Market Commentary
The tale of two presidents and their political problems has dominated grain and soy complex markets for the last two days, and they have had a notable impa...
Chinese Chicken; Cheese Please
One lawmaker’s concerns over chicken imports may be a hurdle for U.S. beef access to China. Meanwhile, its growth in exports shows cheese is a new trend in...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's domestic grain prices continued to drop (in RUB) across most regions, and grain exports from its seaports during 5-11 May were significantly lower...
China In-Country Analysis
Although China's landed price of imported soybeans fell $2/MT to $411/MT last week as the national inventory climbed slightly, another factor pushed the do...
Rural Downgrade; Facebook Science
USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue should find it easy to explain his proposed removal of the undersecretary for rural development position and budget cutting, an...
Market Commentary
Commodity markets were supported in general by the sinking U.S. dollar, which hit a six-month low today and has now given back its entire post-election ral...
So Special; Science Disrupters; Wisely Beyond Friends
Demands by NGO groups in Europe to “fix the broken CAP” proved too much for even Phil Hogan, the most civil EU farm commissioner. So Special Demands by non...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade was either dull as dishwater or exciting, depending on what one’s interest might be. KC wheat was a bit more interesting today,...
Oilseed Highlights: Organic Soybean Fraud; Chinese Subsidies; NOPA Crush Volume; Brazilian Soybean Forecast
The governments of China’s Heilongjiang and Liaoning Provinces announced last week that they will pay farmers higher subsidies to produce soybeans in 2017,...
Ethanol Industry’s E15 Game Plan
The ethanol industry’s regulatory and legislative strategy to gain approval for E15 either by regulation or legislation is outlined.While E15 has been gene...
A Fundamentally Mixed Bag
The supply side of the 2017/18 U.S supply/demand balance is being molded by crop production prospects. However, the demand side is being fashioned by quite...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
To protect its local crop, Morocco has reintroduced a significant tariff on soft wheat imports until the end of 2017. As in the past, tariff levels will be...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria was quiet last week without any trades reported. Some parcels of both origins' 12.5 percent wheat are offered in t...
Singapore Silly; Wrong-Way Ag; Tuna Test; NAFTA/Commodities
The world’s third-largest financial capital and the country with the world’s second-largest volume of external trade per capita doesn’t trust trade. How el...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were under some selling pressure in the Sunday night session with soybeans slightly higher on very light trading volume. Selling the...
Soybeans Bullish – Seriously?
The soy complex continues to be the energizer of agricultural markets. However, Its rallying would seem to be impossible in the face of another record worl...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Low demand is the main reason for the lack of movement in Argentina's FOB corn market, and there are a few factors causing domestic and Brazilian consumers...
China Opens to U.S. Beef – for Real This Time
The U.S. and China have reached a trade deal, which includes U.S. beef access to the Chinese market for the first time in almost 14 years. What can be expe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Channeling Le Trump; Real Deal; Pungent Policy; Day Late
Much of U.S. agriculture has been hyperventilating that Donald Trump is going to get into a trade war and the resulting trade retaliation is going to hurt...
Very High Benchmarks – Can They Be Reached?
USDA’s May reports contained yield and production estimates for spring crops still being planted, so there are several important items to watch and conside...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With a goal of doubling Indian farmers’ income by 2022, agriculture needs land reforms. This will require an increase in productivity and a move away from...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
USDA's friendly wheat and soybean estimates weren’t enough to spook the funds to cover lengthy short positions. They headed into this weekend short wheat,...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE; China Soybean Update
USDA’s WASDE report of yesterday included some interesting changes to the oilseed sector forecasts for 2016/17 as well first projections for 2017/18 that a...
Policy Mélange
U.S. wheat will plunge 21 percent this year to the lowest level in nearly a century. The industry blames foreign trade barriers for its plight, but there i...
WASDE Recap; Nervous Cattle Markets
The May WASDE trimmed red meat and poultry production estimates but raised them for 2018. Meanwhile, cattle futures are deescalating quickly amid broad mar...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Soybeans were a few pennies higher in overnight trading, while corn futures hung around just below unchanged. During the day session, however, prices for b...
Trends and Consequences
While USDA's 2017/18 projections of early May are vulnerable to a multitude of moving variables that will ultimately determine the actual outcome, they can...
The May WASDE
Although some of the 2017/18 projections varied from trade expectations, today’s WASDE did not offer anything of a serious market-moving nature. Neverthele...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s domestic corn market remained solid last week despite ongoing pessimism over the quality of the auctioned state-reserve corn. There are only...
Money and Hypocrites; Shrinking Yield Folly; Nanny NaNa; Rigged
Overcoming their geopolitical concerns in the region and lingering animosity over WWII atrocities, the finance ministers for China, Japan and South Korea m...
Market Commentary
Today’s WASDE with its projections for 2017/18 did not generate much market excitement. As might be expected, though, the corn market showed the biggest re...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s domestic corn market remained solid last week despite ongoing pessimism over the quality of the auctioned state-reserve corn. There are only...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian holidays of 1-2 May and 8-9 May will influence grain prices, although market reaction will be delayed. Meanwhile, there were two other developm...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Sweet and Pesticide Battles; EU Policy Clash; WTO Impasse
The election of Emmanuel Macron to the French presidency was viewed as a vote of support for broader Europe, but that doesn’t mean a lack of policy clashes...
On With the 2017/18 Crop Cycle
USDA’s May WASDE is always interesting and, dare we say it, entertaining. Besides the usual old crop (2016/17) updates of U.S. and world supply/demand bala...
Pork Farrow-to-Finish Forecast
This will again be a record year for pork production, but the impact of that along with more pigs and hogs is not as bearish as it may seem.This will again...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Millers in Kenya are saying that they have not purchased all of the government’s released maize because of one cost-related issue. Meanwhile, the governmen...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade seemed paralyzed by the prospect of Wednesday’s May WASDE. Markets then perked up some during the day session with a little more price acti...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Is Macron’s Election the First Step Toward a Stronger Euro?
The French election is being hailed as a victory for the EU, but that will be determined by France’s future fiscal policy. Yesterday Emmanuel Macron...
USDA’s May Reports – More Questions than Answers?
USDA's May series of reports will be released this Wednesday. These represent its first attempt to project the supply/demand estimates for MY 2017/18 and a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Competitiveness Agenda
The days when governments controlled the sale and purchase of commodities are long past. Moreover, certain tools of that era have either been eliminated or...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Algeria announced a tender today for July shipment, and the most likely origins are France, Germany and the Baltic. While the Black Sea new crop wheat for...
Market Commentary
U.S. agricultural markets opened steady Sunday evening before gradually turning slightly easier on light volume. They then became markedly lower this morni...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian soybean market showed huge movement during the past few weeks, especially in the June position. The interesting dynamic has recently been the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India's edible vegetable oil imports are down and oil exports are up, reducing its forex exposure, the country will continue to depend on those parti...
Rough Night in Jericho
Rough Night in Jericho is the name of an old western movie. As the title implies, things didn’t go as expected, and so it was with the wheat market this we...
Biodiesel Dumping Case Moving Forward
The USITC is considering punitive duties after finding “reasonable indication” of economic harm from Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel imports.The United...
Nose Cutter; Prohibition; Talent Loss
Mexican Senator and presidential candidate Armando Rios Piter has a way for his country to regain its dignity in the face of insults from Donald Trump: buy...
Market Commentary
The one-day weather scare in wheat and the cold weather/planting issues across the Corn Belt didn’t alter the funds’ bearish stance. Meanwhile, the soy com...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Rapid-Fire Summaries
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says that concessions agreed by the NAFTA partners during TPP negotiations can serve as a starting point for updating t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Oilseed Highlights: Slow Farmer Sales; Weekly Soy Export Sales; Brazilian/Argentine Forecasts; EU Soy Imports
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Questions Seeking Answers
Every business enterprise faces a changing multitude of questions, and agriculture is no different. Some of the questions, though, are a bit different this...
A Week Full of Crazy: Snowflake Edition
Last week was fully of crazy news for the livestock and meat sector with much of it involving snowflakes, both real and of the college variety. Blizzard Sn...
Market Commentary
There was widespread weakness in many commodity markets today with grain and soy complex futures joining the march toward lower prices. Overall trading vol...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices continued to drop overall on the Russian grain markets, although there were slightly different patterns in a few regions. Meanwhile, Ukrainian grain...
China In-Country Analysis
According to China Customs data, 181,900 MT of pork were imported in February, an increase of 153.8 percent compared with the same month a year ago. The on...
Financial Stress; TTIP Lite
The attorney general for the state of New Mexico has launched a political witch hunt into beef processing companies, claiming ranchers are hurt by their si...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Trading during the day session was quiet, and price action was choppy. The corn market does not seem to know what to do, so it trades narrow ranges in whic...
How Sugar Could Spark NAFTA Renegotiations by June
The U.S. has set a hard deadline on the U.S.-Mexico sugar trade talks, backed up by a possible re-imposition of duties on Mexican sugar. Will that be the d...
A Few Random Thoughts
As the new month begins, there are a number of concerns and issues related to agricultural production and/or trade.We begin the Merry Month of May, as the...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Flawed; Sour; Wrong; Double-Dealing; Implications
Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso had earlier warned that the U.S. might not get as good a deal bilaterally with Japan than it would by simply rejoin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Iraq’s Kurdish wheat farmers are very upset that the government only intends to buy 500,000 MT of their 1.8 MMT production. The government says that it doe...
Oilseed Highlights: EPA Approves Nematicide; Chinese Biotech Concerns; Brazil Soy Exports
Soybean processors and soyoil refiners in China are facing growing consumer resistance to purchasing soyoil from biotech soybeans, which could also have ra...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade of grain and soy futures was not quite as frenetic as yesterday. Corn futures then traded in about an 8-cent range today, mostly to the red...
Market Commentary
The funds started this week with a record-large short position in wheat, a big short in corn and moderate-to-small short positions in soybeans and soymeal...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Farmer selling of corn in Argentina is still very slow and centered on nearby delivery months as well as expensive versus FOB prices. Exporters are paying...
A New Month, A New Market
Funds increased all their short positions last week in the face of what looked like a bullish weather outlook over the weekend. While it will be several we...
Ignorance and Contradictions
Newly-minted USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue needs to tell his Commerce Department counterpart Wilbur Ross to mind his own portfolio. Meanwhile, former USDA Se...
Congress Strikes Deal on Government Funding Package
Congress has struck a deal on a funding bill to keep the government open through the end of FY 2017, and it also addresses many ag policy issues that WPI h...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Spain was quiet last week with local old crop barley being the cheapest available feed grain. The feed wheat there is competitive versus corn...
Market Commentary
Markets were mostly steady overnight with KC wheat higher. Soybeans traded with 1-2 cent losses much of the day and made a run at unchanged in the last few...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The federal government has issued recommendations for replacement of the old Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) Act. The aim is to remove the mid...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There are a number of issues, many weather-related, currently affecting crops in the U.S. and around the world.The Kansas wheat crop quality tour will take...
The U.S. Economy in March
How will the economy’s performance in March impact domestic food demand?Economic data for March has been compiled, and it shows a solid performance. That s...
Volatility and Growth; Money, Money, Money; Crops and NAFTA
The future of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations remains uncertain given the ample number of distractions in both Washingto...
Market Commentary
Trading was notably quieter overnight and today than has been the case during much of this week. While obviously nervous, markets are not quite sure what t...
G-33 Miscalculates; Winners and Losers; Right and Wrong
The Group of 33 developing countries complained in Geneva that the Uruguay Round imposed “inequities and imbalances” between rich and poor countries. ...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Ag Review: Can Exports Save the Dairy Industry?
WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s ex...
Oilseed Highlights: Biodiesel Bill Introduced; Export Sales; Fishmeal Threatens Penguins
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
CFTC-SEC Merger Proposal Rises Again
This merger concept tends to materialize in the wake of real or perceived financial crises, and it is being heard once more following the election of a hig...
Trump’s Flip-Flop on NAFTA Withdrawal
A look at what is at stake for the meat, livestock, poultry and dairy sector with regard to NAFTA as well as if/how it might be renegotiated.As Gary Blumen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic crude sunflower oil prices remained stable last week with current offers within $820-832/MT EXW. However, they are likely to start falli...
NAFTA Threat; Digitized Future
Withdrawing from NAFTA could lead to a trade war that will harm agriculture, and former Farm Bureau President Bob Stallman today emphasized a focus on impr...
Market Commentary
The day session saw trading volume fade some as the market tried to hang onto yesterday’s gains. There was more fund short covering in wheat, and those mar...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s average domestic corn price rose RMB 14/MT ($2.03/MT) to RMB 1,632/ MT ($237.20/MT) last week, driven by tight supplies of new corn and sever...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights: Canadian, Argentine and Indian Soybean Plantings; Brazil’s Biotech Crop
Although most expect that the current disparity in Argentina's export taxes will be enough to cause farmers there to continue decreasing their soybean plan...
Confirmation Bias; Jousting Northward; Corn Irony
The Trump administration imposed punitive duties on softwood lumber imports from Canada, and some see it as an opening offensive ahead of NAFTA renegotiati...
Ag Weighs in on Tax Reform
Congress and the administration are preparing tax reform proposals to be considered this year. In that regard, the House Agriculture Committee convened a h...
Increasing Market Volatility
The signs of budding potential weather scares are already beginning to show, and it seems quite likely that this will be another year when futures price vo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The MENA region has been the major destination for Black Sea wheat, but more of it is expected to flow elsewhere because of one development. Meanwhile, rep...
Market Commentary
All the potential weather adversity has seemed to finally awaken fund managers holding huge short futures positions in Chicago wheat and corn as well as a...
Market Commentary
One would typically assume a slow planting pace coupled with what appears to be a very wet forecast would be supportive to corn and negative to soybeans. H...
Exchanging Youth; Wishy-Washy Standards; Circumstance Informs
The recent U.S. National Organic Standards Board meeting reportedly ended in confusion, revealing how the use of subjective standards gives rise to philoso...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record-High Placements for March
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine soybean market was very active last week as four cargoes were traded, two CNF and two FOB. One full May shipment was traded at $0.98N CNF and...
A Few Surprises in Canada’s Acreage Estimates
Stats Canada released its first planting intentions estimates for 2017 last Friday, and there will be some enormous acreage swings in the U.S. neighbor thi...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While GOI is continuing to procure local wheat for the MY 2017/18 program, imports are still feasible despite the 10 percent duty with one particular origi...
Federal Funding Deadline for Government Shutdown Nears
With the deadline to pass a federal funding bill in the offing, Congress is revisiting a strategy employed in 2014 that kept the government open.A week fro...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight and in good volume. One development then continued to pressure corn today as wheat tried to mount a brief...
A Look at U.S., Canadian and World Barley Supplies
The 31 March USDA planting intentions reports indicated notable changes ahead for U.S. barley acreage, and there are several reasons why.Barley acres in th...
Overstated and Misunderstood; Self-Defeating Ag Policy
As if he’d never paid a second of attention to bilateral trade issues before running for president, Donald Trump suddenly realizes that Canada operates a s...
Two Sides to Every Story
There can be no denying that today’s supply/demand fundamentals tell a very bearish story, but there are factors, both real and potential, that just might...
Oilseed Highlights: Road Problem in Brazil; Export Sales; The EU Protein Balance Sheet
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Nationalism; TTIP; VAT Benefit
Donald Trump’s effort to initiate a “Buy American; Hire American” obligation is economic nationalism at its rawest, but it is hardly unique. Nationalism Ab...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Red Meat Recap and Margin Outlook; Cattle on Feed
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Market Commentary
In overnight trade, soybeans were helped by firmer Asian markets with corn and wheat prices also slightly higher. Daytime selling then pushed prices into t...
Market Commentary
After trading an inside day, the soybean market managed to hold onto some of its small session gains with soyoil as the engine. Meanwhile, all three wheat...
China In-Country Analysis
China has set a goal of expanding its biofuel portfolio, not only to absorb the massive corn reserves but also to diversify its energy platform. However, i...
DEIP the Canucks; Trump PO’d at TPA
Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. David McNaughton may be correct that his country’s pricing policy on ultrafiltered milk may be WTO legal, but that doesn’t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Turkey's recently-introduced import duty on some agricultural products from Russia has reportedly already caused some damage in the sphere of its grain and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA’s March Crush Volume; Canada’s Soybean and Canola Areas; Chinese Crush Margins and Soybean Prices
Leaders of Canada’s soybean industry expect the soybean plantings there will total 10 million acres by 2027. However, the sector has a notable problem with...
Uneven Outlook for U.S. Wheat Classes
The 2017/18 crop cycle will be somewhat of an historic year for U.S. wheat in that the total area planted to all classes will be the smallest since 1919. M...
Smaller Birds, Bigger Demand
Broiler slaughter weights are below year-ago levels for the first time in three years, and demand is up ahead of the traditional seasonal growth trend.Acco...
Only American; State and Local; Reversals; Poor Luddites
Donald Trump’s recent reversals on foreign policy positions that he took during the campaign (NATO obsolete; Russia friend/China enemy; Syria unimportant)...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
USDA-FAS indicates Turkey’s wheat stocks could drop to less than a two-week supply, the lowest level in more than 50 years. This is not totally attributabl...
Market Commentary
Palm oil futures dropped another 1 percent overnight to a new eight-month low, which pulled soyoil futures down as well. Dalian corn and soy complex future...
Trump’s Twists; Mergers; Economy and Crops
This is a busy week with bilateral exploratory trade talks in Tokyo where American expectations are high and the Japanese are resistant as Prime Minister S...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU reported 231,000 MT of wheat were exported last week and once again corrected the previous week’s total. Now Turkey has been actively buying high pr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
April and May corn basis have started to heat up in Argentina due to several factors. There are still some shorts in the market, and those with port logist...
Market Commentary
Soybeans traded 5-6 cents higher early in the Sunday evening session, but those gains couldn’t be sustained either overnight or today. Corn followed the sh...
Court Decision Makes Livestock Operations Report Air Emissions
The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals has reversed a Bush-era EPA rule that exempts livestock CAFOs from reporting air emissions, which could cost swine, poult...
Wheat Market Still on Life Support
The primary reason for longer-term optimism in the wheat market is that U.S. planted wheat acreage will be the smallest since 1919, and there are two numbe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets ended this short trading week in fair fashion. Soybeans and corn closed higher, and wheat finished with the winter wheat cont...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Indonesian Minister Says No Palm Oil to EU; Brazilian Corruption
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
China and U.S. Meat Exports; GIPSA Rule
China will increase its meat imports this year, potentially including U.S. beef. Meanwhile, USDA action this week has further delayed the livestock marketi...
Weather Scare Season
As the 2017/18 new crop cycle gets underway in the Northern Hemisphere, it is inevitable that new weather scares will emerge to energize or torment market...
Import Substitution; CAP War; Back to Bite; CRISPR’s Threat
Japan is proposing to remove food products from eligibility for duty-free entry under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). This is intended to addr...
China In-Country Analysis
China's monthly food inflation entered negative territory in February for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, prices for animal protein, including pork,...
Trump Manipulates Currency; Government Mishandles Data
U.S. government statistical agencies would like farmers to automatically share the data they collect via their electronic precision agriculture (PA) equipm...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian oilseed prices continued to decline overall, but Ukraine's were mostly stable with just a few drops noted along with some increases. Its crude sunf...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
It was the day after the April WASDE, but the approaching long Easter weekend (CME grain markets are closed Friday) seemed to have had a greater impact on...
NAFTA Strategies; Self-Flagellation; Xenophobic Soda; Bombs for Beans
The government of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is still trying to figure out what to expect and how to position itself in the upcoming renegotiat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Grain experts in South Africa are saying that the very large increase in the maize crop there and drop in maize prices could push farmers into a money-losi...
Market Commentary
Some of USDA’s fresh numbers released in today's April WASDE were tilted more bearishly than analysts predicted, but none were extreme enough to caus...
Senators’ Polling Numbers and the Farm Bill
Will political polling back home impact the Senate Agriculture Committee’s drafting of the farm bill?As former House Speaker Thomas “Tip” O’Neill (D-Massac...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
The April WASDE
USDA’s April WASDE unsurprisingly carried forward the theme of growing supplies of grains and soybeans in the U.S. and the entire world. While it is all to...
Oilseed Highlights: Forecasts; South American Planting Intentions
Today’s USDA/WASDE report included several changes of pertinence to the oilseeds sector. Meanwhile, one particular development will challenge South America...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU reported that 237,000 MT of soft wheat were exported last week as the total since the campaign started remains notably lower than a year ago. Meanwh...
U.S. Dairy Calls for Trade Action Against Canada
A new milk pricing regulation implemented in Canada on 1 April has the U.S. dairy industry calling for the Trump administration to take action against that...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil’s soybean market rebounded last Friday after nearly three weeks of steady declines, driven by the presence of one important variable. This week’s pr...
100 Days’ High Risk; Le Pen Predictions; Automation
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping created a U.S.-China Comprehensive Dialogue that has 100 days to show progress or all hell breaks loose. Trump made a wise dipl...
No Bullish News Tomorrow
USDA will release its April WASDE report with supply/demand revisions tomorrow, but it is almost impossible to make a case for why any of those numbers wil...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets were steady to a bit higher at the start of trading Sunday night. That trend continued through the night and into today’s o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Xi-Trump Summit; Missed Chance
The most notable outcome of the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents is the lack of fireworks. Meanwhile, business groups developed a wish list...
U.S. Corn Outlook
The 31 March USDA planting intentions report confirmed what most analysts expected. The big question is whether the acreage reduction will be enough to app...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Following the landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh, there is hope that the government will be able to move forward with p...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
Ethanol Stocks at All-Time High
Ethanol stocks have hit a record high, while production is still exceeding 1 million barrels/day despite the seasonal slowdown.Ethanol production dropped s...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets were unaffected by the events in the Middle East. Corn, wheat and soybeans all finished the night session within a penny of uncha...