Trade War Machinations; Chicken War; Uncomfortable Europe; MAHA Coke
Trade War Machinations EU trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic left Washington saying the Trump Administration’s trade policy goals were unclear. Yet, the EU rejected Washington’s offer to drop tariffs if Brussels reduces trade ties with China and removes food safety barriers to American...
Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg’s Tyler Cowen, the world trading order is “weighted against the exporting interests of the U.S.” Moreover, it is growing wor...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, neither of which was a surprise. Massie has been a skeptic of the bill all along and Spartz famousl...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the trade war’s impact on export markets. Surveys indicate that the American public expects tariffs to raise their cost of living. They al...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
War, what is it Good For?
It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. and China seem likely to be permanent. The public will only accept the high cost of this war if they understand and accept its goals. History...
Some Clarity, But Long Haul
Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Breaking too fast to negotiate with other countries would look weak, and retaining tariffs is still viewed by some in the White House as neces...
Ethanol to the Rescue!
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit the year-round sale of E15 fuel through the summer of 2025. The letter encouraged the use of temporary waivers under the Clean Air Act to exte...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...
While Swinging for the Fence
Early reactions to President Trump’s tariff war are as expected. Major foreign trading partners are expressing shock and assuring Washington that if there is no negotiated settlement, there will be an appropriate response. Domestic pundits emphasize this is a tax on American consumers and...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
“Reciprocal” Tariffs; Apocalypse Day, or Not; Misdirection
“Reciprocal” Tariffs President Trump’s political opponents acknowledge he is a great marketer and his multi-day hype of a “Liberation Day” came to a head today with the announcement of a minimum 10 percent import tariff and rates at generally half those charged by...
Uncertainty Ends
Trump’s tariff threats are said to be causing uncertainty, though its intent is transparent. One thing tomorrow’s release of the tariff plan will not end is the duplicity of its opponents. Let’s look at some of the sturm und drang and its meaning. East Asia: A joint statement...
Quick Hits: Agency Employment, Grains Reports, and Biofuels
USDA Retirement: USDA employees have until 8 Apil to decide whether to participate in the administration's so-called deferred resignation program. USDA employees were sent an email last night titled “Deferred Resignation Program 2.0,” which says they must make a decision by the dead...
Liberation Day Minus One; States Rights, National Losses; The Hammer and USDA
Liberation Day Minus One The Trump team is said to be weighing 20 percent across the board tariffs, reducing the share of U.S. funding of the WTO, and critic James Carville says the Administration has collapsed in less than three months. Morgan Stanley calls all the stated goals for tariffs as...
Liberation Day is Coming!
President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "all countries." However, the Administration has yet to reveal many of the key details of his plan, or when actual duties will be implemented...
Slow Soy Sales in Argentina Following Policy Changes
Argentine soybean farmers are selling their crop at the slowest pace in 10 years as producers bet on the likely effects of libertarian President Javier Milei’s actions on commodity markets, including a weakening of the peso and potential tax relief. The sales are a quarter below where the...
Trade War Maneuvering; MAHA HaHa; Russian Grain Agreement
Trade War Maneuvering Wall Street trading sank lower on word that the White House will announce today tariffs on automobile imports. While some U.S. farm groups are asking for import protections, others are advising a more strategic trade approach that opens up overseas markets. It is reported...
Transatlantic Provocations; Indian Adjustments; Grain Industry Threats
Transatlantic Provocations No one knows what to fully expect on 2 April and the launch of President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Bill Reinsch at the Center for Strategic and International Studies observes that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum likely has the best three componen...
Monday Policy Potpourri
Hill Trade Advice: The U.S. House Ways & Means’ Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on American trade negotiation priorities. Witnesses include those from agriculture, those impacted by trade retaliation, services, and former Republican trade officials. The Trump Adminis...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Trade War Fractures
Today was National Agriculture Trade Day, an effort to boost awareness about the benefits of trade to the sector. However, the milestone also sparked debate about the increasing U.S. agricultural trade deficit, and the advisability of the Trump tariff war. President Trump’s goal is...
‘Dirty 15’; Ukraine’s Ag Exports; WTO and National Security
‘Dirty 15’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump Administration may provide one unique number as the newly applied general tariff on each country supplying goods to the U.S. The few countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. may escape receiving a number but fo...
Budget Deal Made Just in Time
The House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate have both passed the full-year Continuing Appropriations Act, which would fund the government under a continuing resolution (CR) for the remainder of fiscal year (FY) 2025. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that this bill would set...
Deciphering Trump
The first 100 days of the second Trump presidency doesn’t end until 30 April and is a meaningless metric because Donald Trump’s initiatives will last four years. Washington and the world are not handling the first 55 days very well and they need to figure it out or there will contin...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...
Tariff Waste; Changing the EU; Cost of Data; Fake Food Safety
Tariff Waste Now that Trump tariffs are going into full swing, the question is for what objective? The President says other countries treat America unfairly, indicating he sees an imbalance in trade concessions. That is why he warned he would double punitive duties on Canadian steel and aluminu...
New Canadian Prime Minister Selected
Last night, Canada selected a new prime minister-elect, as Justin Trudeau's reign, since November 2015, comes to a close amid a trade war with the U.S. On 6 January, Trudeau announced his resignation, opening up his seat. In the meantime, Canada's Liberal Party announced that Mark Carney was ch...
Small Ideas; Technical Barriers; Advice to DOGE
Small Ideas U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the objective is to reduce the role of the government. This makes sense considering the explosion in government debt to the point investor Ray Dalio says otherwise there will be a debt crisis in three years. There are two ways to addr...
It’s Tarriff Day!
It’s tariff day! President Trump followed through on his plan to impose tariffs on various imported products across the economy. At 12:01 a.m. EST today, 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and an additional 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy products went into effect. Pres...
Tariff Tuesday; Profit for Eggs; Green Goals Implode
Tariff Tuesday As usual, there is some agreement with Donald Trump on his goal, in this case – improved terms of trade for a country running a perpetual trillion-dollar trade deficit. But then his negotiating tactic is so over-the-top kinetic that it throws the baby out with the bath wate...
Everything Will Be OK, Says Secretary Rollins
As President Trump gears up to roll out his sweeping tariff plans tomorrow, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is promising farmers she’ll be “in the room” to protect them from the economic consequences. Speaking to producers and industry groups at the Commodity Classic in C...
USDA Oversight by Senate Committee
Yesterday, Judge William Alsup, of the U.S. District Court for the Northern California District, said the USDA firings were likely unlawful and ordered that the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) halt the action. That is a follow-on to 14 February when USDA issued a statement outlining the ac...
Jones Act on Steroids; Aller Anfang ist Schwer; Copycat Limits
Jones Act on Steroids The Jones Act (Merchant Marine Act of 1920) requires that shipping between U.S. ports involve U.S.-built, owned, flagged and manned vessels. Cruise ships intentionally make a two hour stop in a foreign port to avoid the law. Half of U.S. overseas food aid must follow the l...
Monday Policy Shorts
Pesticide Policy: New and controversial Secretary of HHS, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. says “Nothing is off limits” including agricultural chemicals in his proposed overhaul of U.S. food and drug safety policy. Meanwhile, Iowa is pursuing legislation that would exempt pesticide companies...
Rollins versus Kennedy; Move Over Eggs; FSC and VAT
Rollins versus Kennedy With a vote of 72 – 28, Brooke Rollins became the 33rd U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and she achieved the fifth best Senate approval of Trump Cabinet members thus far. By contrast, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. received 20 fewer approval votes, and 20 more disapproval vote...
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins
After getting a slow start to the nomination process, Brooke Rollins is now the confirmed USDA Secretary, by virtue of a 72-28 confirmation vote last week. She’s just the second woman to head the agency as Ann Veneman of California was Secretary in 2001 during President George...
EU’s Agriculture Vision; Reciprocal Trade; AI Pivot; War in Europe
EU’s Agriculture Vision The EU’s draft proposed “Vision” for agriculture will be released tomorrow and it is said to be “farmer centric,” which means it involves complications for the market. Its ‘Vision & objectives for 2040’ has many rhetori...
No GMO Corn Ban by Mexico
Last Wednesday, the Mexican government formally repealed an import ban on genetically modified corn after the U.S. successfully argued the measure violated its commitments under a North American free trade deal. Here’s how we got here. In 2018, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, i.e., “t...
India Concessions; Reciprocal Tariffs; Fighting for Relevance
India Concessions U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet tomorrow at the White House. Trump says other countries treat the U.S. badly and perhaps none more than India. Its trade policy is dominated by protectionism. It has led the movement by developing countri...
Powell and Trump Showdown on Capitol Hill
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last month that he would not resign from his position, even if asked to by Trump. Since the President did not move to oust him, he’s stayed in place. Moreover, at today’s hearings before the Senate Banking Committee, the Federal Reserve se...
U.S. Africa Relations; Money versus Regulation
U.S. Africa Relations The Biden Administration started but failed to complete regional agreements like the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Prosperity (IP3) and the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity. Some House members still think U.S. relations in Asia are important and have called for...
Trump’s World
China is set to implement retaliatory tariffs on a variety of U.S. goods starting as soon as today, further intensifying trade tensions between the two economic giants. The new tariffs, ranging from 10 to 15 percent will target American exports such as crude oil, liquefied natural gas, farm equ...
Greer Approval; Tariffs and Trading Partners; Executive Power; Tech Reality
Greer Approval Jamieson Greer is expected to win approval from the Senate Finance Committee tomorrow to become the next U.S. Trade Representative. His hearing last week was notable mostly for the dissatisfaction in the Congress over trade policy under Biden and now under Trump. Former USTR Kath...
Divergence of Markets; Fear No Beer; Little Net Gain
Divergence of Markets Food away from home has been outpacing food at home as the cost of human services has written. The categories on the rise include meat, eggs, produce, and alcohol. Food prices are unlikely to descend and even food price discounter Walmart has struggled to restrain what the...
Unbridled Confidence; Good Governance
Unbridled Confidence As President Trump’s tariffs were about to go into effect on Canada and Mexico, a farmer representative gave assurance that they would not go into effect. He was confident that there would be a deal. Now the January Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer on...
Agencies and Buildings; Reactions to Tariffs; USMCA Civil Disobedience
Agencies and Buildings Donald Trump’s flurry of actions to upset the status quo in Washington is upsetting bureaucrats, but perhaps not Democrats. When your opponent is digging a hole to fall into, get out of the way. As Steven Englander of Standard Chartered framed it, “He seems to...
Tariff Follies Begin; Ludicrous Lutnick; Hill-arious Committee Picks
Tariff Follies Begin There is playing from strength, like having the leverage of oversized trade deficits, and then there is overplaying one’s hand. Blanket 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico for ephemeral reasons fentanyl and immigration, two things Mr. Trump cannot even control in...
Transatlantic Uncertainty
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says that the Administration is still on track to impose a 25 percent tariff on Canada and Mexico this Saturday, unless they take undefined steps on immigration and drugs, and the President is still thinking about imposing a 10 percent tariff on Chin...
WTO Epiphany; Trump Treats Ag Horribly
WTO Epiphany Keith Rockwell is a trade policy professional. The lead spokesman for the WTO for many years, he was a cheerleader for the new world order and the opportunities it presented. He emphasized the importance of reaching agreement at each successively failed WTO ministerial. But Rockwel...
Trump Orders Freeze on Federal Grants and Loans, Including Ag Spending
Yesterday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) circulated a memo that directed federal agencies to “temporarily pause all activities related to obligations or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance.” The memo states that “in Fiscal Year 2024, of the nearly $10...
Un-Whole of Government; Apex Predator; Heavy Lift
Un-Whole of Government President Trump’s memorandum last week announcing his America First Trade Policy (AFTP) was issued to five federal departments, two of which are only tangentially involved in trade policy. It skipped over the federal department overseeing more than six percent of U...
Rollins Confirmation Hearing
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, the Senate Agriculture Committee held a confirmation hearing on the nomination of Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of USDA. As Gary noted, she “rolled” through the hearings “poised, confident, charming” and had done the groundwork as...
Rollins Rolled; Cluelessness at the Top
Rollins Rolled Poised, confident, charming - USDA Secretary-Designate Brooke Rollins hit the trifecta today at her confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. She mostly just needed to show that she supported U.S. agriculture. After all, Donald Trump won over 98 percent of the...
Transatlantic Tariffication; Biofuel Battles
Transatlantic Tariffication President Trump’s bromance with big tech billionaires has refocused his attention on Europe. The large penalties and regulatory hurdles being imposed by Brussels on America’s ANTMAMA (Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon) are being fram...
Day One Trump Executive Orders
Shortly after his swearing-in as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump signed a slew of Executive Orders (EO) putting the wheels in motion for his policy agenda. EOs are signed, written, and published directives from the President regarding the operations of the federal governme...
Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil?; Billionaire Farm Boy; Ignoring the Labels
Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil? The President, aka “Tariff Man” pronounced at his inauguration that, “we will tariff and tax foreign countries.” However, the tariffs did not come on day one like some other policy changes. The warning is that, “tariffs delayed are not ta...
Transitioning to Trump at USDA and in Congress
Monday is the Presidential Inaugural. This week has seen several Senate confirmation hearings on cabinet appointees. Both the Republicans and Democrats, Trump transition team, and Congress are prepping for the new Administration which will show up to work on Tuesday morning. &...
Political Sillies
No Introspection: Joe Biden’s farewell address appears to have been written by a 25-year-old at the socialist leaning People’s Policy Project. He claims historic success but warns the country will become an oligarchic dystopia. He warned about a “dangerous concentration of power” amidst “very f...
Squeezing Russian Wheat; Save the Rats; Rollins Delayed
Squeezing Russia with WheatEurope is afraid that Donald Trump is ready to capitulate to Vladimir Putin next week when he becomes president. But Trump has appointed a fair number of geopolitical hawks to his team. He may see the war as senseless, but he doesn’t want to be perceived as a loser. R...
Tariff Adjustment/Musk; Cynical Biden Trade Goals; Biofuel Proposal Disappoints
Tariff Adjustment /MuskRecognizing the inflation threat of sudden and large import tariffs, Donald Trump’s economic team: Scott Bessent (Treasury), Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council), and Stephen Miran (Council of Economic Advisers) are reportedly working on a plan of more gradual 2-5 pe...
Coming Nominations Hearings
President-elect Trump’s inauguration is in one week. In the meantime, the Senate will soon start confirmation hearings on several of his cabinet nominees. Here’s a look at a few of those upcoming hearings.The Energy and Public Works Committee will consider the nomination of former Rep. Lee Zeld...
Greedflation’s Weaknesses; UPF Attack
Greedflation’s WeaknessesThe U.S. government is suing apartment owners for using RealPage software algorithms for setting rents. The grocery industry may be the next target of this assault. Critics charge RealPage of price fixing since its software optimizes what rental companies can charge. Be...
45Z Tax Credit Preliminary Guidance Released; No GREET Model Yet
As WPI reported on 6 December, the Treasury Department had promised that the compliance regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuels Production credit would be released by the end of the Biden Administration, implying no later than 19 January, the day before President-elect Trump’s inauguration. T...
Trudeau Resigns as Canadian Prime Minister
On the campaign trail in 2024, then-candidate and now President-elect Donald Trump proposed to levy tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports, and 60 percent on imports from China. Then on the week of Thanksgiving, that changed to 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10 p...
Congress Certifies 2024 Election
In a joint session today, Congress certified the 2024 election results. That sets up the incoming Trump Administration to pursue an ambitious First 100 Days of executive orders and other legislative activity that will likely include many of the campaign promises he made, including significant d...
Another Trump Threat; UPF Threat; AI Threat; Africa-Land of Opportunity
Another Trump ThreatThe farm community supported Donald Trump’s election despite his pledge of tariffs that will no doubt cause retaliation against U.S. exports. Then he nominated food sector critic Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to oversee the safety of the industry. Trump himself had signed the Preve...
Death of Ag Bidenomics; China 2025; Import Sensitivity
Death of Ag BidenomicsMuch has been written about Bidenomics. Its fans bemoan that the data is good, but the voters failed to appreciate that specific messaging; critics ridicule the policies for waste and misdirection. Bidenomics mostly doesn’t matter in agriculture where cyclicality is the dr...
Parting Shot; Locality Pay
Parting ShotsIn an interview with DTN, outgoing USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack expressed his long-running frustration that farm spending favors larger farms and that the number of farmers and acreage are shrinking. He says the farm bill is outmoded and needs to benefit more farmers and stop the rat...
Christmas Eve Policy Potpourri
Ship Subsidies: The SHIPS for America Act has been introduced in the U.S. Congress and is intended to boost the number of U.S. built ships. Currently, China builds over half the world’s ships, and over 90 percent are constructed in just three countries (China, South Korea, Japan). The U.S. buil...
Two Big Things; Trumpenomics
Two Big ThingsJust days before Christmas 2024, two big things happened that impact U.S. agriculture. On their way home for the holidays, members of the U.S. Congress passed a one-year extension of the farm bill. Farm groups were disappointed for a number of reasons, including the fact that expa...
Government Shutdown Averted; Process Provides Insights into 2025 Policy Making
A government shutdown was averted after frenetic eleventh-hour action last week in Congress to pass a continuing resolution, which is a short-term appropriations bill that extends the existing baseline level of funding. Under the terms of a previous CR passed on 25 September, the federal govern...
Farm Aid Revived; New Economy versus Old; UPF Discussion
Farm Aid RevivedThe latest Monthly Monitor of agricultural economists showed that 56 percent believe the sector is already in a recession and a whopping 81 percent believe it is on the brink of a recession. The government’s stopgap bill to keep the government funded through March included $10 b...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural trade deficit with the EU has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 6 percent. Since WWII, the U.S. has subsidized Europe’s se...
Tear it Up II; Splitting GM Wheat; DOFE
Tear it Up IICanada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned and President-elect Donald Trump is being blamed. That is an over-simplification and she appears to have run away from a fight. But her resignation raises the question of how Canada and Mexico will handle Mr. Trump. Both countr...
Lame Duck Docket: Appropriations, Farm Bill and Ag Related National Defense Authorization Provisions
As of today, Congress has four days until government funding expires, and 15 days to pass a farm bill extension before (31 December) permanent law goes into effect, which could have negative impacts on commodity markets. Lawmakers are still working to finalize a stopgap funding bill that w...
Trump’s War on American Agriculture
American agriculture is already facing a less affluent future. Commodity prices have softened, and South America now dominates the global export market. The U.S. share of global agricultural trade has fallen by two-thirds. Major importers have typically chafed under their dependence upon foreig...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Food Fight Ahead; UPF Boogeyman
Food Fight AheadThere are two committee confirmation hearings that aggies will be watching intently early next year: the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions (HELP) on the nomination of RFK, Jr.; and the Senate Agriculture Committee on the nomination of Brooke Rollins. Th...
Hunger Games; Power of Deregulation
Hunger GamesDonald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are unconventional, far more so than in his first term as president. It could result in a shakeup of staid and static policy prescriptions, or it could amount to nothing more than a bunch of four-year-olds attempting to play soccer. The DNI nominee qu...
New Leadership for Congressional Energy Committees
With the retirement from Congress of House Energy and Commerce (HEC) Committee chair Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA), the gavel was up for grabs in what is arguably the most powerful committee in the House. The third and fourth ranking Republicans, Representatives Bob Latta of Ohio and Brett Guthr...
Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad
Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...
EU’s Approach to Trump; Ignoring FTA’s; Laying the Trap
EU’s Approach to TrumpAs Europe’s economy founders under a tax and regulate approach, and its security becomes increasingly threatened by appeasement and inadequate defense spending, its leaders talk ready to get tough with Donald Trump. Some suggest preempting Trump tariffs by negotiating an e...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
EU-Mercosur Fallout; Get Your Own; WTO Ignored
EU-Mercosur FalloutThe EU and Mercosur reached agreement on a quarter century effort to have a free trade agreement. Tariffs will be removed on over 90 percent of two-way trade. The agreement has further procedural hurdles to overcome. France leads an effort to construct a blocking minority of...
Squaring Budget and Taxes; Trade War; F&V Self-Destruction
Squaring Budget and TaxesU.S. agricultural spending could get squeezed between the incoming Trump Administration’s desire to extend tax cuts, which creates a $4 trillion budget hole, and reducing the size of government. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk an...
Reorganizing in Congress – Potential Moves Among Aggies
Congress will return to Washington this week to kick off the post-election lame duck session of Congress. The docket is busy with only 12 joint legislative days left and government funding set to expire on 20 December. And the Farm Bill is set to expire on 31 December unless an extension can be...
Trade Abusers; Working Class Appeals; Healthy Elites
Trade AbusersThe West blames China for over-production but the global narrative is that China has embraced global trade and it is the U.S. that has become isolationist. This framing is disputed by Stewart Paterson at the Singapore-based Hinrich Foundation. He notes that trade flows show the opp...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Food versus Populism; Food in Perspective; Beauty of the Algorithm; Tariffs as Panacea
Food versus PopulismPresident-elect Donald Trump’s selection of RFK, Jr. to oversee a food system that he wants to remake without chemicals and ultra-processing, or mega farms, or seed oils, is going to be both fun and excruciating to watch. The sheer mass of the food-sector battleship should b...
USTR Nominee; Changing Eating Habits
USTR NomineeTariffs are President-Elect Trumps most repeated policy focus but his selection of the next U.S. Trade Representative came nearly last. At least Jamieson Greer is a somewhat known quantity. World Trade Online says, “Stakeholders see what they want to see in Greer as USTR.” Having se...
Channeling Hamilton; Gastronationalism Gone Awry; Science Reverts to Nonpartisan; Black Friday Deals
Channeling HamiltonAlexander Hamilton, the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, encouraged the Tariff Act of 1789, the Tariff Act of 1790, and the Tariff Act of 1792. He used tariffs to fund the government and protect domestic industries from British exports. President-elect Trump has pledged...
Brooke Rollins: New Ag Secretary Pick
During the Presidential campaign, one topic on which Donad Trump was introspective was on his staff and cabinet appointments. He mentioned more than once on the campaign trail that getting the “right people” in jobs was one area in which he would focus the second time around. Typically Trump me...
Most Googled; Maladministration; Tough Love
Most GoogledOn Saturday, 23 November, the most Googled thing for those in U.S. agriculture policy circles was Brooke Rollins. Her name had not been amongst the 15 or so possible names mentioned in media reports to head USDA. A prominent name added to the list late last week was former U.S...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
Trade War Machinations; Chicken War; Uncomfortable Europe; MAHA Coke
Trade War Machinations EU trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic left Washington saying the Trump Administration’s trade policy goals were unclear. Yet, the EU rejected Washington’s offer to drop tariffs if Brussels reduces trade ties with China and removes food safety barriers to American...
Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg’s Tyler Cowen, the world trading order is “weighted against the exporting interests of the U.S.” Moreover, it is growing wor...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, neither of which was a surprise. Massie has been a skeptic of the bill all along and Spartz famousl...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the trade war’s impact on export markets. Surveys indicate that the American public expects tariffs to raise their cost of living. They al...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
War, what is it Good For?
It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. and China seem likely to be permanent. The public will only accept the high cost of this war if they understand and accept its goals. History...
Some Clarity, But Long Haul
Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Breaking too fast to negotiate with other countries would look weak, and retaining tariffs is still viewed by some in the White House as neces...
Ethanol to the Rescue!
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit the year-round sale of E15 fuel through the summer of 2025. The letter encouraged the use of temporary waivers under the Clean Air Act to exte...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...
While Swinging for the Fence
Early reactions to President Trump’s tariff war are as expected. Major foreign trading partners are expressing shock and assuring Washington that if there is no negotiated settlement, there will be an appropriate response. Domestic pundits emphasize this is a tax on American consumers and...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
“Reciprocal” Tariffs; Apocalypse Day, or Not; Misdirection
“Reciprocal” Tariffs President Trump’s political opponents acknowledge he is a great marketer and his multi-day hype of a “Liberation Day” came to a head today with the announcement of a minimum 10 percent import tariff and rates at generally half those charged by...
Uncertainty Ends
Trump’s tariff threats are said to be causing uncertainty, though its intent is transparent. One thing tomorrow’s release of the tariff plan will not end is the duplicity of its opponents. Let’s look at some of the sturm und drang and its meaning. East Asia: A joint statement...
Quick Hits: Agency Employment, Grains Reports, and Biofuels
USDA Retirement: USDA employees have until 8 Apil to decide whether to participate in the administration's so-called deferred resignation program. USDA employees were sent an email last night titled “Deferred Resignation Program 2.0,” which says they must make a decision by the dead...
Liberation Day Minus One; States Rights, National Losses; The Hammer and USDA
Liberation Day Minus One The Trump team is said to be weighing 20 percent across the board tariffs, reducing the share of U.S. funding of the WTO, and critic James Carville says the Administration has collapsed in less than three months. Morgan Stanley calls all the stated goals for tariffs as...
Liberation Day is Coming!
President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "all countries." However, the Administration has yet to reveal many of the key details of his plan, or when actual duties will be implemented...
Slow Soy Sales in Argentina Following Policy Changes
Argentine soybean farmers are selling their crop at the slowest pace in 10 years as producers bet on the likely effects of libertarian President Javier Milei’s actions on commodity markets, including a weakening of the peso and potential tax relief. The sales are a quarter below where the...
Trade War Maneuvering; MAHA HaHa; Russian Grain Agreement
Trade War Maneuvering Wall Street trading sank lower on word that the White House will announce today tariffs on automobile imports. While some U.S. farm groups are asking for import protections, others are advising a more strategic trade approach that opens up overseas markets. It is reported...
Transatlantic Provocations; Indian Adjustments; Grain Industry Threats
Transatlantic Provocations No one knows what to fully expect on 2 April and the launch of President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Bill Reinsch at the Center for Strategic and International Studies observes that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum likely has the best three componen...
Monday Policy Potpourri
Hill Trade Advice: The U.S. House Ways & Means’ Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on American trade negotiation priorities. Witnesses include those from agriculture, those impacted by trade retaliation, services, and former Republican trade officials. The Trump Adminis...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Trade War Fractures
Today was National Agriculture Trade Day, an effort to boost awareness about the benefits of trade to the sector. However, the milestone also sparked debate about the increasing U.S. agricultural trade deficit, and the advisability of the Trump tariff war. President Trump’s goal is...
‘Dirty 15’; Ukraine’s Ag Exports; WTO and National Security
‘Dirty 15’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump Administration may provide one unique number as the newly applied general tariff on each country supplying goods to the U.S. The few countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. may escape receiving a number but fo...
Budget Deal Made Just in Time
The House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate have both passed the full-year Continuing Appropriations Act, which would fund the government under a continuing resolution (CR) for the remainder of fiscal year (FY) 2025. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that this bill would set...
Deciphering Trump
The first 100 days of the second Trump presidency doesn’t end until 30 April and is a meaningless metric because Donald Trump’s initiatives will last four years. Washington and the world are not handling the first 55 days very well and they need to figure it out or there will contin...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...
Tariff Waste; Changing the EU; Cost of Data; Fake Food Safety
Tariff Waste Now that Trump tariffs are going into full swing, the question is for what objective? The President says other countries treat America unfairly, indicating he sees an imbalance in trade concessions. That is why he warned he would double punitive duties on Canadian steel and aluminu...
New Canadian Prime Minister Selected
Last night, Canada selected a new prime minister-elect, as Justin Trudeau's reign, since November 2015, comes to a close amid a trade war with the U.S. On 6 January, Trudeau announced his resignation, opening up his seat. In the meantime, Canada's Liberal Party announced that Mark Carney was ch...
Small Ideas; Technical Barriers; Advice to DOGE
Small Ideas U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the objective is to reduce the role of the government. This makes sense considering the explosion in government debt to the point investor Ray Dalio says otherwise there will be a debt crisis in three years. There are two ways to addr...
It’s Tarriff Day!
It’s tariff day! President Trump followed through on his plan to impose tariffs on various imported products across the economy. At 12:01 a.m. EST today, 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and an additional 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy products went into effect. Pres...
Tariff Tuesday; Profit for Eggs; Green Goals Implode
Tariff Tuesday As usual, there is some agreement with Donald Trump on his goal, in this case – improved terms of trade for a country running a perpetual trillion-dollar trade deficit. But then his negotiating tactic is so over-the-top kinetic that it throws the baby out with the bath wate...
Everything Will Be OK, Says Secretary Rollins
As President Trump gears up to roll out his sweeping tariff plans tomorrow, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is promising farmers she’ll be “in the room” to protect them from the economic consequences. Speaking to producers and industry groups at the Commodity Classic in C...
USDA Oversight by Senate Committee
Yesterday, Judge William Alsup, of the U.S. District Court for the Northern California District, said the USDA firings were likely unlawful and ordered that the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) halt the action. That is a follow-on to 14 February when USDA issued a statement outlining the ac...
Jones Act on Steroids; Aller Anfang ist Schwer; Copycat Limits
Jones Act on Steroids The Jones Act (Merchant Marine Act of 1920) requires that shipping between U.S. ports involve U.S.-built, owned, flagged and manned vessels. Cruise ships intentionally make a two hour stop in a foreign port to avoid the law. Half of U.S. overseas food aid must follow the l...
Monday Policy Shorts
Pesticide Policy: New and controversial Secretary of HHS, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. says “Nothing is off limits” including agricultural chemicals in his proposed overhaul of U.S. food and drug safety policy. Meanwhile, Iowa is pursuing legislation that would exempt pesticide companies...
Rollins versus Kennedy; Move Over Eggs; FSC and VAT
Rollins versus Kennedy With a vote of 72 – 28, Brooke Rollins became the 33rd U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and she achieved the fifth best Senate approval of Trump Cabinet members thus far. By contrast, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. received 20 fewer approval votes, and 20 more disapproval vote...
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins
After getting a slow start to the nomination process, Brooke Rollins is now the confirmed USDA Secretary, by virtue of a 72-28 confirmation vote last week. She’s just the second woman to head the agency as Ann Veneman of California was Secretary in 2001 during President George...
EU’s Agriculture Vision; Reciprocal Trade; AI Pivot; War in Europe
EU’s Agriculture Vision The EU’s draft proposed “Vision” for agriculture will be released tomorrow and it is said to be “farmer centric,” which means it involves complications for the market. Its ‘Vision & objectives for 2040’ has many rhetori...
No GMO Corn Ban by Mexico
Last Wednesday, the Mexican government formally repealed an import ban on genetically modified corn after the U.S. successfully argued the measure violated its commitments under a North American free trade deal. Here’s how we got here. In 2018, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, i.e., “t...
India Concessions; Reciprocal Tariffs; Fighting for Relevance
India Concessions U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet tomorrow at the White House. Trump says other countries treat the U.S. badly and perhaps none more than India. Its trade policy is dominated by protectionism. It has led the movement by developing countri...
Powell and Trump Showdown on Capitol Hill
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last month that he would not resign from his position, even if asked to by Trump. Since the President did not move to oust him, he’s stayed in place. Moreover, at today’s hearings before the Senate Banking Committee, the Federal Reserve se...
U.S. Africa Relations; Money versus Regulation
U.S. Africa Relations The Biden Administration started but failed to complete regional agreements like the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Prosperity (IP3) and the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity. Some House members still think U.S. relations in Asia are important and have called for...
Trump’s World
China is set to implement retaliatory tariffs on a variety of U.S. goods starting as soon as today, further intensifying trade tensions between the two economic giants. The new tariffs, ranging from 10 to 15 percent will target American exports such as crude oil, liquefied natural gas, farm equ...
Greer Approval; Tariffs and Trading Partners; Executive Power; Tech Reality
Greer Approval Jamieson Greer is expected to win approval from the Senate Finance Committee tomorrow to become the next U.S. Trade Representative. His hearing last week was notable mostly for the dissatisfaction in the Congress over trade policy under Biden and now under Trump. Former USTR Kath...
Divergence of Markets; Fear No Beer; Little Net Gain
Divergence of Markets Food away from home has been outpacing food at home as the cost of human services has written. The categories on the rise include meat, eggs, produce, and alcohol. Food prices are unlikely to descend and even food price discounter Walmart has struggled to restrain what the...
Unbridled Confidence; Good Governance
Unbridled Confidence As President Trump’s tariffs were about to go into effect on Canada and Mexico, a farmer representative gave assurance that they would not go into effect. He was confident that there would be a deal. Now the January Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer on...
Agencies and Buildings; Reactions to Tariffs; USMCA Civil Disobedience
Agencies and Buildings Donald Trump’s flurry of actions to upset the status quo in Washington is upsetting bureaucrats, but perhaps not Democrats. When your opponent is digging a hole to fall into, get out of the way. As Steven Englander of Standard Chartered framed it, “He seems to...
Tariff Follies Begin; Ludicrous Lutnick; Hill-arious Committee Picks
Tariff Follies Begin There is playing from strength, like having the leverage of oversized trade deficits, and then there is overplaying one’s hand. Blanket 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico for ephemeral reasons fentanyl and immigration, two things Mr. Trump cannot even control in...
Transatlantic Uncertainty
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says that the Administration is still on track to impose a 25 percent tariff on Canada and Mexico this Saturday, unless they take undefined steps on immigration and drugs, and the President is still thinking about imposing a 10 percent tariff on Chin...
WTO Epiphany; Trump Treats Ag Horribly
WTO Epiphany Keith Rockwell is a trade policy professional. The lead spokesman for the WTO for many years, he was a cheerleader for the new world order and the opportunities it presented. He emphasized the importance of reaching agreement at each successively failed WTO ministerial. But Rockwel...
Trump Orders Freeze on Federal Grants and Loans, Including Ag Spending
Yesterday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) circulated a memo that directed federal agencies to “temporarily pause all activities related to obligations or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance.” The memo states that “in Fiscal Year 2024, of the nearly $10...
Un-Whole of Government; Apex Predator; Heavy Lift
Un-Whole of Government President Trump’s memorandum last week announcing his America First Trade Policy (AFTP) was issued to five federal departments, two of which are only tangentially involved in trade policy. It skipped over the federal department overseeing more than six percent of U...
Rollins Confirmation Hearing
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, the Senate Agriculture Committee held a confirmation hearing on the nomination of Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of USDA. As Gary noted, she “rolled” through the hearings “poised, confident, charming” and had done the groundwork as...
Rollins Rolled; Cluelessness at the Top
Rollins Rolled Poised, confident, charming - USDA Secretary-Designate Brooke Rollins hit the trifecta today at her confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. She mostly just needed to show that she supported U.S. agriculture. After all, Donald Trump won over 98 percent of the...
Transatlantic Tariffication; Biofuel Battles
Transatlantic Tariffication President Trump’s bromance with big tech billionaires has refocused his attention on Europe. The large penalties and regulatory hurdles being imposed by Brussels on America’s ANTMAMA (Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon) are being fram...
Day One Trump Executive Orders
Shortly after his swearing-in as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump signed a slew of Executive Orders (EO) putting the wheels in motion for his policy agenda. EOs are signed, written, and published directives from the President regarding the operations of the federal governme...
Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil?; Billionaire Farm Boy; Ignoring the Labels
Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil? The President, aka “Tariff Man” pronounced at his inauguration that, “we will tariff and tax foreign countries.” However, the tariffs did not come on day one like some other policy changes. The warning is that, “tariffs delayed are not ta...
Transitioning to Trump at USDA and in Congress
Monday is the Presidential Inaugural. This week has seen several Senate confirmation hearings on cabinet appointees. Both the Republicans and Democrats, Trump transition team, and Congress are prepping for the new Administration which will show up to work on Tuesday morning. &...
Political Sillies
No Introspection: Joe Biden’s farewell address appears to have been written by a 25-year-old at the socialist leaning People’s Policy Project. He claims historic success but warns the country will become an oligarchic dystopia. He warned about a “dangerous concentration of power” amidst “very f...
Squeezing Russian Wheat; Save the Rats; Rollins Delayed
Squeezing Russia with WheatEurope is afraid that Donald Trump is ready to capitulate to Vladimir Putin next week when he becomes president. But Trump has appointed a fair number of geopolitical hawks to his team. He may see the war as senseless, but he doesn’t want to be perceived as a loser. R...
Tariff Adjustment/Musk; Cynical Biden Trade Goals; Biofuel Proposal Disappoints
Tariff Adjustment /MuskRecognizing the inflation threat of sudden and large import tariffs, Donald Trump’s economic team: Scott Bessent (Treasury), Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council), and Stephen Miran (Council of Economic Advisers) are reportedly working on a plan of more gradual 2-5 pe...
Coming Nominations Hearings
President-elect Trump’s inauguration is in one week. In the meantime, the Senate will soon start confirmation hearings on several of his cabinet nominees. Here’s a look at a few of those upcoming hearings.The Energy and Public Works Committee will consider the nomination of former Rep. Lee Zeld...
Greedflation’s Weaknesses; UPF Attack
Greedflation’s WeaknessesThe U.S. government is suing apartment owners for using RealPage software algorithms for setting rents. The grocery industry may be the next target of this assault. Critics charge RealPage of price fixing since its software optimizes what rental companies can charge. Be...
45Z Tax Credit Preliminary Guidance Released; No GREET Model Yet
As WPI reported on 6 December, the Treasury Department had promised that the compliance regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuels Production credit would be released by the end of the Biden Administration, implying no later than 19 January, the day before President-elect Trump’s inauguration. T...
Trudeau Resigns as Canadian Prime Minister
On the campaign trail in 2024, then-candidate and now President-elect Donald Trump proposed to levy tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports, and 60 percent on imports from China. Then on the week of Thanksgiving, that changed to 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10 p...
Congress Certifies 2024 Election
In a joint session today, Congress certified the 2024 election results. That sets up the incoming Trump Administration to pursue an ambitious First 100 Days of executive orders and other legislative activity that will likely include many of the campaign promises he made, including significant d...
Another Trump Threat; UPF Threat; AI Threat; Africa-Land of Opportunity
Another Trump ThreatThe farm community supported Donald Trump’s election despite his pledge of tariffs that will no doubt cause retaliation against U.S. exports. Then he nominated food sector critic Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to oversee the safety of the industry. Trump himself had signed the Preve...
Death of Ag Bidenomics; China 2025; Import Sensitivity
Death of Ag BidenomicsMuch has been written about Bidenomics. Its fans bemoan that the data is good, but the voters failed to appreciate that specific messaging; critics ridicule the policies for waste and misdirection. Bidenomics mostly doesn’t matter in agriculture where cyclicality is the dr...
Parting Shot; Locality Pay
Parting ShotsIn an interview with DTN, outgoing USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack expressed his long-running frustration that farm spending favors larger farms and that the number of farmers and acreage are shrinking. He says the farm bill is outmoded and needs to benefit more farmers and stop the rat...
Christmas Eve Policy Potpourri
Ship Subsidies: The SHIPS for America Act has been introduced in the U.S. Congress and is intended to boost the number of U.S. built ships. Currently, China builds over half the world’s ships, and over 90 percent are constructed in just three countries (China, South Korea, Japan). The U.S. buil...
Two Big Things; Trumpenomics
Two Big ThingsJust days before Christmas 2024, two big things happened that impact U.S. agriculture. On their way home for the holidays, members of the U.S. Congress passed a one-year extension of the farm bill. Farm groups were disappointed for a number of reasons, including the fact that expa...
Government Shutdown Averted; Process Provides Insights into 2025 Policy Making
A government shutdown was averted after frenetic eleventh-hour action last week in Congress to pass a continuing resolution, which is a short-term appropriations bill that extends the existing baseline level of funding. Under the terms of a previous CR passed on 25 September, the federal govern...
Farm Aid Revived; New Economy versus Old; UPF Discussion
Farm Aid RevivedThe latest Monthly Monitor of agricultural economists showed that 56 percent believe the sector is already in a recession and a whopping 81 percent believe it is on the brink of a recession. The government’s stopgap bill to keep the government funded through March included $10 b...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural trade deficit with the EU has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 6 percent. Since WWII, the U.S. has subsidized Europe’s se...
Tear it Up II; Splitting GM Wheat; DOFE
Tear it Up IICanada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned and President-elect Donald Trump is being blamed. That is an over-simplification and she appears to have run away from a fight. But her resignation raises the question of how Canada and Mexico will handle Mr. Trump. Both countr...
Lame Duck Docket: Appropriations, Farm Bill and Ag Related National Defense Authorization Provisions
As of today, Congress has four days until government funding expires, and 15 days to pass a farm bill extension before (31 December) permanent law goes into effect, which could have negative impacts on commodity markets. Lawmakers are still working to finalize a stopgap funding bill that w...
Trump’s War on American Agriculture
American agriculture is already facing a less affluent future. Commodity prices have softened, and South America now dominates the global export market. The U.S. share of global agricultural trade has fallen by two-thirds. Major importers have typically chafed under their dependence upon foreig...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Food Fight Ahead; UPF Boogeyman
Food Fight AheadThere are two committee confirmation hearings that aggies will be watching intently early next year: the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions (HELP) on the nomination of RFK, Jr.; and the Senate Agriculture Committee on the nomination of Brooke Rollins. Th...
Hunger Games; Power of Deregulation
Hunger GamesDonald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are unconventional, far more so than in his first term as president. It could result in a shakeup of staid and static policy prescriptions, or it could amount to nothing more than a bunch of four-year-olds attempting to play soccer. The DNI nominee qu...
New Leadership for Congressional Energy Committees
With the retirement from Congress of House Energy and Commerce (HEC) Committee chair Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA), the gavel was up for grabs in what is arguably the most powerful committee in the House. The third and fourth ranking Republicans, Representatives Bob Latta of Ohio and Brett Guthr...
Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad
Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...
EU’s Approach to Trump; Ignoring FTA’s; Laying the Trap
EU’s Approach to TrumpAs Europe’s economy founders under a tax and regulate approach, and its security becomes increasingly threatened by appeasement and inadequate defense spending, its leaders talk ready to get tough with Donald Trump. Some suggest preempting Trump tariffs by negotiating an e...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
EU-Mercosur Fallout; Get Your Own; WTO Ignored
EU-Mercosur FalloutThe EU and Mercosur reached agreement on a quarter century effort to have a free trade agreement. Tariffs will be removed on over 90 percent of two-way trade. The agreement has further procedural hurdles to overcome. France leads an effort to construct a blocking minority of...
Squaring Budget and Taxes; Trade War; F&V Self-Destruction
Squaring Budget and TaxesU.S. agricultural spending could get squeezed between the incoming Trump Administration’s desire to extend tax cuts, which creates a $4 trillion budget hole, and reducing the size of government. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk an...
Reorganizing in Congress – Potential Moves Among Aggies
Congress will return to Washington this week to kick off the post-election lame duck session of Congress. The docket is busy with only 12 joint legislative days left and government funding set to expire on 20 December. And the Farm Bill is set to expire on 31 December unless an extension can be...
Trade Abusers; Working Class Appeals; Healthy Elites
Trade AbusersThe West blames China for over-production but the global narrative is that China has embraced global trade and it is the U.S. that has become isolationist. This framing is disputed by Stewart Paterson at the Singapore-based Hinrich Foundation. He notes that trade flows show the opp...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Food versus Populism; Food in Perspective; Beauty of the Algorithm; Tariffs as Panacea
Food versus PopulismPresident-elect Donald Trump’s selection of RFK, Jr. to oversee a food system that he wants to remake without chemicals and ultra-processing, or mega farms, or seed oils, is going to be both fun and excruciating to watch. The sheer mass of the food-sector battleship should b...
USTR Nominee; Changing Eating Habits
USTR NomineeTariffs are President-Elect Trumps most repeated policy focus but his selection of the next U.S. Trade Representative came nearly last. At least Jamieson Greer is a somewhat known quantity. World Trade Online says, “Stakeholders see what they want to see in Greer as USTR.” Having se...
Channeling Hamilton; Gastronationalism Gone Awry; Science Reverts to Nonpartisan; Black Friday Deals
Channeling HamiltonAlexander Hamilton, the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, encouraged the Tariff Act of 1789, the Tariff Act of 1790, and the Tariff Act of 1792. He used tariffs to fund the government and protect domestic industries from British exports. President-elect Trump has pledged...
Brooke Rollins: New Ag Secretary Pick
During the Presidential campaign, one topic on which Donad Trump was introspective was on his staff and cabinet appointments. He mentioned more than once on the campaign trail that getting the “right people” in jobs was one area in which he would focus the second time around. Typically Trump me...
Most Googled; Maladministration; Tough Love
Most GoogledOn Saturday, 23 November, the most Googled thing for those in U.S. agriculture policy circles was Brooke Rollins. Her name had not been amongst the 15 or so possible names mentioned in media reports to head USDA. A prominent name added to the list late last week was former U.S...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...