Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.95/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, up $2.4...
Market Commentary: Cattle Markets Remain Under Pressure, China Buys More Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Iran warned that it will retaliate against the U.S. if American strikes target Iranian infrastructure, as President Trump has threatened to do next week if negotiations between the two nations do not resume. President Trump is scheduled to deliver a primetime addre...
Livestock Round Up: Turkey Production Poised to Rebound Some
Turkeys for Thanksgiving are typically placed this month. Turkey production has suffered from HPAI and other diseases for the past two years, and placements are still down overall. However, at more than 34 pounds per bird, overall production is being supported by heavier weights and increased p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: The Bulls Are Back in Town?
After spending much of the year searching for a reason to stay, the bulls suddenly have several. Grain markets have strengthened, wheat is leading the charge, outside markets are becoming more supportive, and geopolitical and weather risks are once again demanding attention. Does that mean the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Conditions Data; Wheat Reverses the Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: Attacks between the U.S. and Iran intensified overnight and the U.S. Central Command reported that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will begin at 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all shipping traffic, except Iran. In an...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$172/head last week, up $31 from the prior week as sharply lower fed cattle prices more than offset a seasonal decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout fell to $382/cwt while fed cattle prices dropped to $248/cwt, allowing packers to recover some of the margin c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Aquaculture: A Protein Production Growth Opportunity
Key Takeaways: Aquaculture is becoming increasingly important in meeting global seafood demand, gaining market share as wild-caught fisheries face production limitations. Superior feed conversion efficiency gives aquaculture a competitive advantage over traditional livestock production, with l...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Market Commentary: Reassessing Weather and Geopolitical Risks
What You Need to Know Today: Rising hostilities and an end to any semblance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran created geopolitical risk-off trade in macroeconomic markets, though the CBOT seemed immune. President Trump announced the U.S. military would resume its naval blockade on Iran...
Livestock WASDE
USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates on Friday, forecasting tighter beef supplies and growing pork and broiler supplies. Beef production was lowered due to a slower fed cattle harvest, which was offset somewhat by cow slaughter. Fed cattle slaughter was forecast to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315/short ton, down $3.7 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4025/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9075/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $3.3 from y...
Market Commentary: Bullish WASDE and Sea of Azov Strikes Lift Grains
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat prices surged after Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels and infrastructure disrupted grain shipments, halting traffic through the Sea of Azov, Kerch Strait, and Black Sea. The July WASDE report offered a modestly supportive outlook for corn, wheat, and soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.1975/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $4.2 fr...
Market Commentary: The Market Is Always Looking Ahead
Weather remains the dominant driver of grain markets this time of year, but this week's trade has been a reminder that futures markets are constantly looking ahead. Corn and soybean prices don't simply react to today's weather — they respond to where traders believe production risks will...
Livestock Round Up: UFCW Wants Big 4 to Get USDA Money
As we wrote in last week’s Livestock Round Up, the Administration has announced the Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers (SPUR) program that will provide up to $500 million in payments for small- and medium-sized processors to buy cattle. The Big 4 packers are ineligible, which has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.0775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risk Back in Play
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump claimed the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was over, as both sides accused one another of violating the terms of the agreement. Commercial vessels are increasingly steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz as security risks escalate following Iran...
Can Lean Beef Futures Succeed Where Others Have Failed?
Key Takeaways: The CME Group is launching new 90 percent Lean Beef and 50 percent Lean Beef futures and options contracts in July. There are five key factors that must be present in physical markets and futures contract specifications for futures contracts to become successful. The two l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.185/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9775/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.5/short ton, up $3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Amid Weather Market; U.S. Revokes Iran’s Oil Licenses
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Choice Boxed Beef Price Falls to Yearly Low
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.445 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, up $9.1 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Risk Materializes
What You Need to Know Today: This time of year, grain markets are often just one weather forecast away from a sharp rally, and today's hotter, drier outlook provided the catalyst for significant gains in corn and soybean futures. Livestock markets were relatively quiet by comparison, with most...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Trading Cools Off After an Eventful Report Week
What You Need to Know Today: The June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k jobs, less than the 115k jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The labor force participation rate dropped by 0.3 percent to 61.5 percent, the lowest since March 2021, and the lowest in 50 ye...
Livestock Round Up: Trump Declines USMCA Renewal and Pledges $500 Million to Beef Processors
Today was the deadline for announcing intentions regarding renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA); the U.S. will not renew the USMCA, according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. President Trump will instead pursue separate bilateral trade deals with Canada and Mexico las...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: New Month, New Trade?
Key Market Insights July is here, and the grain markets already feel like they are shifting gears. With the June USDA reports now behind us, inflation is back in the conversation, and traders are once again turning their attention to three familiar summer drivers: demand, money flow, and weathe...
Poultry’s Cost Effectiveness and Versatility Fueling Consumption Growth
Key Takeaways: Poultry is the fastest-growing major animal protein, supported by lower production costs, affordability, and broad consumer appeal. Broilers are the most feed-efficient major livestock species, giving chicken a lasting cost advantage over beef and pork. Short production cycles a...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
Summary of Futures
Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $0 from...
Market Commentary: Acreage, Stocks Surprises Send Corn, Wheat Higher; Fund Selling Likely to Subside
What You Need to Know Today: The surprises from the USDA’s Acreage report were a sharp reduction in winter wheat area from the March Prospective Plantings estimates and a larger-than-expected increase in corn area. The Grain Stocks report offered relatively few surprises, but quarterly d...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$261/head last week, down $19 from the prior week as weaker beef values (especially the Choice cutout) were offset by firmer fed cattle prices, which further compressed packer profits. The cutout slipped to $387/cwt while fed cattle prices held above $259/cw...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.39/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $2.3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Downside Risks Rise as Funds Pad Bearish Bets, Corn Hits New Lows
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to pause hostilities to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week (theoretically, at least). There were some rumors of a possible Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Analysts are looking for the largest U.S. 1 June cor...
Senate Farm Bill, Prop 12, and NWS Update
Proposition 12: The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has advocated for a fix to Proposition 12, the California animal welfare law, in the Senate farm bill. The House version of the farm bill included a fix, but the Senate bill, based on the discussion draft released by Chairman John Boozm...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5625/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $307/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $4.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 June today. There were 73.7 million head, which was down slightly from 1 June 2025, as well as from 1 March 2026. The hog herd sits at the same level it was on 1 September 2025 and is the lowest for June since 2023. From 2016, after the re...
Mid-Year Cow-Calf Profitability Projections
Key Takeaways: Despite rising cost pressures — including the recent run-up in fuel and energy costs — U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026. Cost pressures — particularly non-feed variable costs — and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.35/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.0975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.97/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4175/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.9/short ton, up $3.1...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday. Below are analysts’ estimates for the report. The biggest change since the 1 March report is the number of market hogs, which is expected to be up 1.1 percent from what was implied in March. The percent increase in hogs we...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$243/head last week, down $25 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices more than offset a slight decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $390/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed to $260/cwt - just of all-time highs - extending the seasonal s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.415/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
Cattle on Feed for June 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed increased two percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.7 million on June 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.70 million head, 10 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 1.55 million head, 12 perc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4275/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.32/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0 from yest...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
New World Screwworm Spreading North
Since the first U.S. case of New World Screwworm (NWS) was confirmed on 3 June, USDA has confirmed 12 cases. The latest was confirmed in a sheep on 12 June, with four additional cases confirmed in Texas on 11 June, three in cattle and one in a goat. The New Mexico case confirmed that the infect...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$218/head last week, down $20 from the prior week as a softer Choice cutout combined with slightly lower fed cattle prices. The cutout slipped to $391/cwt while fed cattle prices eased to $256/cwt, leaving packer profits under pressure. Margins remain deeply...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.135/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
Policy Roundup: NWS, Section 122 Tariffs, and Dairy Producer Agenda
New World Screwworm Another day, another case of New World Screwworm. USDA has reported nine cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the U.S. Of the nine reported cases, eight are located across four counties in Texas—Edwards, Gillespie, La Salle, and Zavala. Of the eight cases in Texas, si...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8675/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.15/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.7/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
Livestock Round Up: NWS and USMCA Renegotiation
USDA’s National Veterinary Services confirmed three new cases of New World Screwworm, including one in a calf in La Salle County, Texas, a goat in Texas, and a dog in New Mexico. That brings the total to six cases. The border to Mexico is closed, with Mexico now implementing a prohibition...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.23/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1375/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Stabilization Continues, But What Next?
What You Need to Know Today: Early Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Secretary said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising in a “very meaningful way.” Tuesday afternoon, however, President Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormu...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were essentially unchanged at -$201/head last week as a modest increase in the Choice cutout was offset by steady fed cattle prices. The cutout edged higher to $392/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $257/cwt, leaving packer spreads largely unchanged. Margins remain deepl...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.7/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT, Sends Wheat Higher and Soybeans Lower
What You Need to Know Today: After a volatile weekend with Israel and Iran launching attacks at each other, peace seems to have returned to the region after President Trump called for both sides to cease hostilities. Soybean trade remains defensive as funds are liquidating longs amid no signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 188,000 contracts (23 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just four weeks...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.5/short ton, down $5.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Lowers Risk Appetite
What You Need to Know Today: Non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 jobs in May, above economist expectations of 80,000 jobs. With the job market strong, the Fed may consider raising interest rates to tame inflation. The strong jobs report was a catalyst for lower risk appetite across financial and...
Screwworm Updates; Executive Action on Import Enforcement; Bullish Jobs Report
Newworld screwworm Update The detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Texas on Wednesday has been volatile for the cattle markets. The confirmation came on Wednesday evening, and the futures market opened sharply lower on Thursday. Market participants cited unknowns about cattle supplies and...
Market Commentary: New World Screwworm Appears in the U.S., Grains and Soy Sink
What You Need to Know Today: A case of New World Screwworm was detected in Texas, the first in the U.S. since 1966. With cases creeping closer to the U.S. border, it was only a matter of time. APHIS confirmed that larvae were detected in the umbilical area of a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.245/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.295/bushel, down $0.245 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, down $7.1...
Livestock Roundup: Screwworm in Texas Problem
The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed a case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Texas. This comes two days after a USDA press conference on New World Screwworm (NWS) where Secretary Rollins noted that a new press conference would be held every two...
Market Commentary: Risk Premium: Gone or Just Hiding?
Key Market Insights Macro: Dollar Up, Stocks Down The U.S. dollar moved higher today, creating another headwind for American exports. A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive on the global market and can make it harder for exporters to compete against South American and Black Sea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8725/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.54/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $5...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.03/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6525/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.2/short ton, down $0...
Beef Supply and Demand Issues
Beef prices hit record highs in April 2026, and that is in large part due to robust consumer demand. Despite economic pressures on consumers, there is not much evidence of consumers trading down from beef. Much of that was due to the COVID pandemic when consumers learned new ways to...
China Market Analysis
Corn The U.S. has yet to ship any corn to China, though last year’s sales were a paltry 32 KMT. Soybeans U.S. soybean export inspections for May rose above the previous year’s level with China as the target market. Citing reduced demand for soymeal, the Ministry of Agriculture...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$200/head last week, up $57 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices moved lower. The cutout rose to $392/cwt, continuing its seasonal climb into summer demand, while fed cattle prices eased to $257/cwt. The improvement helpe...
Market Commentary: Bears Control CBOT at Least Until Weather Market Forms
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Friday that the U.S. has seized $1b of Iranian crypto assets. Iran’s IGGC says 15 merchant vessels, including 4 oil tankers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Managed money traders...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.0875/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8075/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $3...
Poultry and Egg Markets Weighed Against HPAI
From the monthly cold storage report it is interesting to look at the poultry numbers and changes due to HPAI that has been plaguing the sector to some degree since 2022. Total chicken in cold storage was up 1.1 percent on the year and up 0.9 percent on the month. For eggs, the total inve...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long 169,000 contracts (17 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just three weeks pr...
Market Commentary: Risk-off tone hits grains and livestock
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.105/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $329.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.945/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.1/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Livestock Roundup: More Dairy Cow Slaughter Later This Year
A total of 79,000 cows has been added to the dairy herd since last December, which compares to 81,000 head added to the dairy herd over the same period in 2025. This similarity in herd expansion numbers in early 2025 and 2026 has kept dairy cow slaughter at the same level in each of the two yea...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$257/head last week, up $39 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices eased. The cutout rose to nearly $390/cwt, while fed cattle prices slipped to $260/cwt, allowing packer spreads to recover modestly from the prior week&rsqu...
Market Commentary: Trading Headlines, Pricing Risk
Key Market Insights Today was another reminder that this market is trading headlines first, facts second. Early optimism surrounding reports of a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding helped pressure energy risk premium and kept the broader commodity space defensive. An hour later, how...
Producers' Share of Beef Value Up, Packer Margins Down
Key Takeaways: Cattle producers are currently capturing a greater proportion of total retail beef values amid tight cattle supplies. Packers are forced to make higher bids on cattle to keep operations running when supplies are tight, hurting packer margins. Sustained poor packer margins...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8525/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.6/short ton, up $2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Better Weather, Geopolitical Trade Dynamics
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. conducted “self-defense strikes” in Iran and said the two sides are “close” to negotiating a ceasefire. “Close” is a relative term, however, and even if 95 percent of the terms are agreed to, the remaining 5 percent is l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.355/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.86/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, down $3...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
China Market Analysis
Grain China’s General Administration of Customs says that grain imports were up 34.3 percent in April and an overall 18.1 percent for the January to April period. On the one hand, China produces more grain that it consumes and stockpiles large volumes. But Canadian grain analyst Mitch Mil...
Market Commentary: Small Gains as Corn/Soybeans Correct; Commodity Supercycle
What You Need to Know Today: The corn and soybean markets closed slightly higher in low-volume trade. The wheat market was mixed, with HRW continuing its downward trek on improved moisture. As expected, the bearish cattle on feed report drove down cattle prices and pulled hogs down with it. Mi...
U.S. Cattle on Feed on May 1, 2026
• U.S. Cattle on Feed Up in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million on May 1, 2026 - 2 percent above May 1, 2025. • Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.70 million head - 6 percent above 2025. • Marketings of fed cattle during April totale...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral with Bearish Undertones
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.6 million head, 102 percent of last year. Source: USDA, WPI Placements were up, but part of that is attributable to persistent drought c...
Fake Meat? On the End of the Aisle
Let’s return briefly to the fake meat hype cycle, now sitting somewhere in a dusty corner of your mind, not entirely forgotten. What happened to all those products, known as plant-based alternative proteins? They were supposed to be as good as real meat—cheaper, more environmentally...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.965/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, up $3.5 fr...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
April 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks were up sharply from March but 1.6 percent below April 2025 levels due to continued declines in poultry and pork stocks. Total poultry stocks were up 0.2 percent year-over-year (YoY) due to a slow expansion in broiler slaughter. Total pork stocks ros...
Market Commentary: A Market Trading War — Until It Wasn’t
Key Market Insights Macro markets delivered a full whipsaw today. Early in the session, crude oil had rallied back above $100/barrel as traders priced renewed concern over the U.S.-Iran standoff and potential supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz. That strength helped pull grains off their o...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6225/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.475/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, down $2...
Poultry Profitability Helping to Offset Challenging Beef Environment for Major Protein Producers
Key Takeaways: Major meatpackers are seeing massive losses in their beef divisions, with cattle prices at record levels amid low inventories. Drought continues to persist in cattle-producing areas in the U.S. Cattle herd rebuilding is not at the levels needed to meaningfully raise total cattle...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 May will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 101.4 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.535 million head. This is the first year-over-yea...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Lower on Improved Weather, Pre-Holiday Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese officials indicated that China and the U.S. have agreed to cut 10 percent tariffs on imports. Chinese officials confirmed that a “guiding target” has been set for purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, but fell short of confirming that the U.S. r...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6575/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9975/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Markets Pause to Assess China Deal Amid Broadly Bullish Backdrop
What You Need to Know Today: Excitement over China’s agreement to purchase $17 billion of U.S. ag commodities subsided, as traders are cautious amid the yet-unspecified allocation of those purchases. Monday’s Crop Progress report did not significantly change the narrative for corn...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts, reversing a three-week buying trend. Funds reduced the net long on all-ags by 92,000 contracts (8.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016. The...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.6725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.095/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.3/short ton, down $2...
Texas Joins Beef Antitrust Effort
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Friday launched an investigation into the beef industry over potential anticompetitive conduct among the nation’s largest meatpackers, his office announced Friday. He said the investigation would be conducted alongside a separate antitrust probe announ...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.77/bushel, up $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.645/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.36 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.5/short ton, up $0.2 from yes...
Market Commentary: Assumptions, Uncertainty, Volatility
What You Need to Know Today: Markets opened double digits higher Sunday evening following the release of Chinese and American official summaries of bilateral discussions last week. They chose the more optimistic view of future Chinese purchases of American farm goods versus the more opaque inte...
Market Commentary: Funds Come Off Their High Horse
With no bullish surprise out of Beijing this week and good weather taking over many global crop areas, funds spent the past couple of days selling off the peak positions they had built. CNN’s Live Updates blared, “No signs Trump and Xi resolved any thorny challenges.” By...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.3575/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.77/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.3/short ton, up $1...
Market Commentary: Lack of China Specifics Sink Market
There was heavy volume exiting soybeans, which dragged down the broader market today. The lack of a specific Chinese buying commitment for soybeans undermined speculators who had placed bets on state-directed trade. But even the Chinese do not totally ignore market fundamentals. They may still...
Administration to Suspend TRQ Waiver on Beef
On Tuesday, 12 May, WPI reported on an Executive Order being prepared by the Trump Administration to suspend tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means of addressing high beef prices in the United States. After considerable pushback from cattle producer groups,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.58/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.365 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $6 f...
Market Commentary: War, Weather, and Waiting
Key Market Insights The broad market is locked in on this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, but this is no longer just a trade summit. Increasingly, the meeting is becoming tied directly to Iran, energy security, and the growing global economic fallout from disruptions through the Strai...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.755/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.29/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, up $10.1 fr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.79/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2675/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $3.6 from yes...
U.S. to Temporarily Suspend TRQs on Over-Quota Tariffs on Beef
The Trump Administration is planning a suspension of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means to address high beef prices in the U.S. U.S. cattle and beef prices have increased based on exceptionally strong consumer demand, the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$208/head last week, down $24 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices continued to outpace wholesale beef values. The Choice cutout held near $389/cwt, but fed cattle prices climbed to nearly $259/cwt, extending the seasonal squeeze on packer spreads...
Market Commentary: Risks Abound During Headline Week
What You Need to Know Today: Energy markets are sharply higher after President Trump rejected a weekend Iranian counter proposal that did not include limits on the country’s nuclear program. The ceasefire looks increasingly fragile, with energy markets unlikely to return to normal soon...
DOJ USDA Give Update on Antitrust Investigation into Beef Packing
At a joint press conference last week between the Department of Justice and USDA, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated that he and Rollins were present to “... talk about our progress here at the Justice Department to hold meat packers accountable.” The structure of the beef...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $5.1 from yester...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week as weather concerns sustained risk-on buying. Funds added 97,000 contracts (9.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week, essentially reversing the...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.19/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.08/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $319.7/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: Prices Slide on a Hiatus in the Market
What You Need to Know Today Agricultural futures spent a third straight session mostly lower after partially recovering from morning lows. The war in Iran continues to drive energy markets with spillover into ags. After two days lower, crude oil turned higher after Iran demanded unlikely...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1225/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, up $1.6 f...
Livestock Round Up: Summer Grilling Season and Exports
It is now May, the kick-off of the retail meat demand surge, and a shift in the types of products. There are a variety of events that result in a notable spike in spending. First, just passed, is Cinco de Mayo, on 5 May, in which shoppers seek out such items as taco fixings and ready-to-heat me...
Market Commentary: War Premium Out. Weather Premium Next?
Key Market Insights Macros: Macro markets traded a sharp shift in tone Wednesday as traders aggressively pulled risk premium from the market on growing optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. Crude oil briefly traded back below $89/barrel while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 push...
Dressed Carcass Politicians
Gutless politicians are an unsurprising feature, but are nonetheless disappointing. Their constituents often do not care why beef prices are high; they just want them lowered. And if there is no easy solution, then the politician’s goal is to deflect the criticism toward anyone else, whet...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$184/head last week, down $84 from the prior week as sharply higher fed cattle prices outpaced a modest rebound in the Choice cutout. The cutout firmed to $388/cwt, but fed cattle prices surged to nearly $255/cwt, continuing to compress packer spreads despit...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1725/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $317.3/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Grains Ease on Profit Taking but Bullish Fundamentals Remain
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Iranian attacks on vessels and UAE infrastructure are sustaining geopolitical risk across energy and commodity markets Broad profit taking and weaker crude oil triggered a pullback across grains, signaling...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.2775/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.115/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Weather and Biofuels Drive CBOT Strength as Geopolitical Risk Builds
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. launches naval escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacks UAE oil infrastructure, escalating geopolitical risk and supporting energy and broader commodity markets Biofuel demand entering uncharted territory, with soyoil valuation increasingly di...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8575/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.41/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2275/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.9/short ton, up $1.6 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed End to a Higher Week
The corn and soy complex closed higher, with the wheat market mixed, as winter wheat closed up but spring wheat and livestock ended lower. Part of the strength for corn and soybeans may have been a weather premium, as crop planting has started out fast but warm weather has been slow to develop...
Per Capita, What Do You Eat?
Reflect for a moment on what you eat. There is a lot of advice out there in the ether about what you should eat, but really, what do you currently eat and how much? The good people at the USDA have some data for you, to help you answer that question. USDA says that we eat quite a bit of meat. L...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8025/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.3775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0325/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $319.3/short ton, up $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: Inflation Climbs, Crude Hesitates, Grains Reset
Key Market Insights Macros: Inflation isn’t cooling — it’s moving higher again. March PCE inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditures index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) rose 0.7 percent month-over-month, pushing the annual rate to 3.5 percent, the h...
Livestock Round Up: Farm Bill Includes Prop 12 Fix
An amendment to the U.S. House farm bill, aiming to remove the Save Our Bacon Act language in Section 12006 that would have stripped language to prohibit California’s Proposition 12, Massachusetts’ Question 3, and up to 500 state agricultural laws across the country, was blocked by...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.95/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, up $2.4...
Market Commentary: Cattle Markets Remain Under Pressure, China Buys More Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Iran warned that it will retaliate against the U.S. if American strikes target Iranian infrastructure, as President Trump has threatened to do next week if negotiations between the two nations do not resume. President Trump is scheduled to deliver a primetime addre...
Livestock Round Up: Turkey Production Poised to Rebound Some
Turkeys for Thanksgiving are typically placed this month. Turkey production has suffered from HPAI and other diseases for the past two years, and placements are still down overall. However, at more than 34 pounds per bird, overall production is being supported by heavier weights and increased p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: The Bulls Are Back in Town?
After spending much of the year searching for a reason to stay, the bulls suddenly have several. Grain markets have strengthened, wheat is leading the charge, outside markets are becoming more supportive, and geopolitical and weather risks are once again demanding attention. Does that mean the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Conditions Data; Wheat Reverses the Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: Attacks between the U.S. and Iran intensified overnight and the U.S. Central Command reported that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will begin at 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all shipping traffic, except Iran. In an...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$172/head last week, up $31 from the prior week as sharply lower fed cattle prices more than offset a seasonal decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout fell to $382/cwt while fed cattle prices dropped to $248/cwt, allowing packers to recover some of the margin c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Aquaculture: A Protein Production Growth Opportunity
Key Takeaways: Aquaculture is becoming increasingly important in meeting global seafood demand, gaining market share as wild-caught fisheries face production limitations. Superior feed conversion efficiency gives aquaculture a competitive advantage over traditional livestock production, with l...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Market Commentary: Reassessing Weather and Geopolitical Risks
What You Need to Know Today: Rising hostilities and an end to any semblance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran created geopolitical risk-off trade in macroeconomic markets, though the CBOT seemed immune. President Trump announced the U.S. military would resume its naval blockade on Iran...
Livestock WASDE
USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates on Friday, forecasting tighter beef supplies and growing pork and broiler supplies. Beef production was lowered due to a slower fed cattle harvest, which was offset somewhat by cow slaughter. Fed cattle slaughter was forecast to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315/short ton, down $3.7 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4025/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9075/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $3.3 from y...
Market Commentary: Bullish WASDE and Sea of Azov Strikes Lift Grains
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat prices surged after Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels and infrastructure disrupted grain shipments, halting traffic through the Sea of Azov, Kerch Strait, and Black Sea. The July WASDE report offered a modestly supportive outlook for corn, wheat, and soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.1975/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $4.2 fr...
Market Commentary: The Market Is Always Looking Ahead
Weather remains the dominant driver of grain markets this time of year, but this week's trade has been a reminder that futures markets are constantly looking ahead. Corn and soybean prices don't simply react to today's weather — they respond to where traders believe production risks will...
Livestock Round Up: UFCW Wants Big 4 to Get USDA Money
As we wrote in last week’s Livestock Round Up, the Administration has announced the Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers (SPUR) program that will provide up to $500 million in payments for small- and medium-sized processors to buy cattle. The Big 4 packers are ineligible, which has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.0775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risk Back in Play
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump claimed the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was over, as both sides accused one another of violating the terms of the agreement. Commercial vessels are increasingly steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz as security risks escalate following Iran...
Can Lean Beef Futures Succeed Where Others Have Failed?
Key Takeaways: The CME Group is launching new 90 percent Lean Beef and 50 percent Lean Beef futures and options contracts in July. There are five key factors that must be present in physical markets and futures contract specifications for futures contracts to become successful. The two l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.185/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9775/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.5/short ton, up $3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Amid Weather Market; U.S. Revokes Iran’s Oil Licenses
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Choice Boxed Beef Price Falls to Yearly Low
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.445 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, up $9.1 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Risk Materializes
What You Need to Know Today: This time of year, grain markets are often just one weather forecast away from a sharp rally, and today's hotter, drier outlook provided the catalyst for significant gains in corn and soybean futures. Livestock markets were relatively quiet by comparison, with most...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Trading Cools Off After an Eventful Report Week
What You Need to Know Today: The June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k jobs, less than the 115k jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The labor force participation rate dropped by 0.3 percent to 61.5 percent, the lowest since March 2021, and the lowest in 50 ye...
Livestock Round Up: Trump Declines USMCA Renewal and Pledges $500 Million to Beef Processors
Today was the deadline for announcing intentions regarding renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA); the U.S. will not renew the USMCA, according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. President Trump will instead pursue separate bilateral trade deals with Canada and Mexico las...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: New Month, New Trade?
Key Market Insights July is here, and the grain markets already feel like they are shifting gears. With the June USDA reports now behind us, inflation is back in the conversation, and traders are once again turning their attention to three familiar summer drivers: demand, money flow, and weathe...
Poultry’s Cost Effectiveness and Versatility Fueling Consumption Growth
Key Takeaways: Poultry is the fastest-growing major animal protein, supported by lower production costs, affordability, and broad consumer appeal. Broilers are the most feed-efficient major livestock species, giving chicken a lasting cost advantage over beef and pork. Short production cycles a...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
Summary of Futures
Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $0 from...
Market Commentary: Acreage, Stocks Surprises Send Corn, Wheat Higher; Fund Selling Likely to Subside
What You Need to Know Today: The surprises from the USDA’s Acreage report were a sharp reduction in winter wheat area from the March Prospective Plantings estimates and a larger-than-expected increase in corn area. The Grain Stocks report offered relatively few surprises, but quarterly d...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$261/head last week, down $19 from the prior week as weaker beef values (especially the Choice cutout) were offset by firmer fed cattle prices, which further compressed packer profits. The cutout slipped to $387/cwt while fed cattle prices held above $259/cw...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.39/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $2.3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Downside Risks Rise as Funds Pad Bearish Bets, Corn Hits New Lows
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to pause hostilities to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week (theoretically, at least). There were some rumors of a possible Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Analysts are looking for the largest U.S. 1 June cor...
Senate Farm Bill, Prop 12, and NWS Update
Proposition 12: The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has advocated for a fix to Proposition 12, the California animal welfare law, in the Senate farm bill. The House version of the farm bill included a fix, but the Senate bill, based on the discussion draft released by Chairman John Boozm...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5625/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $307/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $4.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 June today. There were 73.7 million head, which was down slightly from 1 June 2025, as well as from 1 March 2026. The hog herd sits at the same level it was on 1 September 2025 and is the lowest for June since 2023. From 2016, after the re...
Mid-Year Cow-Calf Profitability Projections
Key Takeaways: Despite rising cost pressures — including the recent run-up in fuel and energy costs — U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026. Cost pressures — particularly non-feed variable costs — and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.35/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.0975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.97/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4175/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.9/short ton, up $3.1...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday. Below are analysts’ estimates for the report. The biggest change since the 1 March report is the number of market hogs, which is expected to be up 1.1 percent from what was implied in March. The percent increase in hogs we...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$243/head last week, down $25 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices more than offset a slight decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $390/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed to $260/cwt - just of all-time highs - extending the seasonal s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.415/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
Cattle on Feed for June 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed increased two percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.7 million on June 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.70 million head, 10 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 1.55 million head, 12 perc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4275/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.32/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0 from yest...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
New World Screwworm Spreading North
Since the first U.S. case of New World Screwworm (NWS) was confirmed on 3 June, USDA has confirmed 12 cases. The latest was confirmed in a sheep on 12 June, with four additional cases confirmed in Texas on 11 June, three in cattle and one in a goat. The New Mexico case confirmed that the infect...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$218/head last week, down $20 from the prior week as a softer Choice cutout combined with slightly lower fed cattle prices. The cutout slipped to $391/cwt while fed cattle prices eased to $256/cwt, leaving packer profits under pressure. Margins remain deeply...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.135/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
Policy Roundup: NWS, Section 122 Tariffs, and Dairy Producer Agenda
New World Screwworm Another day, another case of New World Screwworm. USDA has reported nine cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the U.S. Of the nine reported cases, eight are located across four counties in Texas—Edwards, Gillespie, La Salle, and Zavala. Of the eight cases in Texas, si...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8675/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.15/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.7/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
Livestock Round Up: NWS and USMCA Renegotiation
USDA’s National Veterinary Services confirmed three new cases of New World Screwworm, including one in a calf in La Salle County, Texas, a goat in Texas, and a dog in New Mexico. That brings the total to six cases. The border to Mexico is closed, with Mexico now implementing a prohibition...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.23/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1375/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Stabilization Continues, But What Next?
What You Need to Know Today: Early Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Secretary said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising in a “very meaningful way.” Tuesday afternoon, however, President Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormu...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were essentially unchanged at -$201/head last week as a modest increase in the Choice cutout was offset by steady fed cattle prices. The cutout edged higher to $392/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $257/cwt, leaving packer spreads largely unchanged. Margins remain deepl...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.7/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT, Sends Wheat Higher and Soybeans Lower
What You Need to Know Today: After a volatile weekend with Israel and Iran launching attacks at each other, peace seems to have returned to the region after President Trump called for both sides to cease hostilities. Soybean trade remains defensive as funds are liquidating longs amid no signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 188,000 contracts (23 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just four weeks...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.5/short ton, down $5.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Lowers Risk Appetite
What You Need to Know Today: Non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 jobs in May, above economist expectations of 80,000 jobs. With the job market strong, the Fed may consider raising interest rates to tame inflation. The strong jobs report was a catalyst for lower risk appetite across financial and...
Screwworm Updates; Executive Action on Import Enforcement; Bullish Jobs Report
Newworld screwworm Update The detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Texas on Wednesday has been volatile for the cattle markets. The confirmation came on Wednesday evening, and the futures market opened sharply lower on Thursday. Market participants cited unknowns about cattle supplies and...
Market Commentary: New World Screwworm Appears in the U.S., Grains and Soy Sink
What You Need to Know Today: A case of New World Screwworm was detected in Texas, the first in the U.S. since 1966. With cases creeping closer to the U.S. border, it was only a matter of time. APHIS confirmed that larvae were detected in the umbilical area of a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.245/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.295/bushel, down $0.245 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, down $7.1...
Livestock Roundup: Screwworm in Texas Problem
The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed a case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Texas. This comes two days after a USDA press conference on New World Screwworm (NWS) where Secretary Rollins noted that a new press conference would be held every two...
Market Commentary: Risk Premium: Gone or Just Hiding?
Key Market Insights Macro: Dollar Up, Stocks Down The U.S. dollar moved higher today, creating another headwind for American exports. A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive on the global market and can make it harder for exporters to compete against South American and Black Sea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8725/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.54/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $5...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.03/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6525/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.2/short ton, down $0...
Beef Supply and Demand Issues
Beef prices hit record highs in April 2026, and that is in large part due to robust consumer demand. Despite economic pressures on consumers, there is not much evidence of consumers trading down from beef. Much of that was due to the COVID pandemic when consumers learned new ways to...
China Market Analysis
Corn The U.S. has yet to ship any corn to China, though last year’s sales were a paltry 32 KMT. Soybeans U.S. soybean export inspections for May rose above the previous year’s level with China as the target market. Citing reduced demand for soymeal, the Ministry of Agriculture...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$200/head last week, up $57 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices moved lower. The cutout rose to $392/cwt, continuing its seasonal climb into summer demand, while fed cattle prices eased to $257/cwt. The improvement helpe...
Market Commentary: Bears Control CBOT at Least Until Weather Market Forms
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Friday that the U.S. has seized $1b of Iranian crypto assets. Iran’s IGGC says 15 merchant vessels, including 4 oil tankers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Managed money traders...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.0875/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8075/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $3...
Poultry and Egg Markets Weighed Against HPAI
From the monthly cold storage report it is interesting to look at the poultry numbers and changes due to HPAI that has been plaguing the sector to some degree since 2022. Total chicken in cold storage was up 1.1 percent on the year and up 0.9 percent on the month. For eggs, the total inve...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long 169,000 contracts (17 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just three weeks pr...
Market Commentary: Risk-off tone hits grains and livestock
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.105/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $329.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.945/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.1/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Livestock Roundup: More Dairy Cow Slaughter Later This Year
A total of 79,000 cows has been added to the dairy herd since last December, which compares to 81,000 head added to the dairy herd over the same period in 2025. This similarity in herd expansion numbers in early 2025 and 2026 has kept dairy cow slaughter at the same level in each of the two yea...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$257/head last week, up $39 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices eased. The cutout rose to nearly $390/cwt, while fed cattle prices slipped to $260/cwt, allowing packer spreads to recover modestly from the prior week&rsqu...
Market Commentary: Trading Headlines, Pricing Risk
Key Market Insights Today was another reminder that this market is trading headlines first, facts second. Early optimism surrounding reports of a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding helped pressure energy risk premium and kept the broader commodity space defensive. An hour later, how...
Producers' Share of Beef Value Up, Packer Margins Down
Key Takeaways: Cattle producers are currently capturing a greater proportion of total retail beef values amid tight cattle supplies. Packers are forced to make higher bids on cattle to keep operations running when supplies are tight, hurting packer margins. Sustained poor packer margins...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8525/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.6/short ton, up $2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Better Weather, Geopolitical Trade Dynamics
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. conducted “self-defense strikes” in Iran and said the two sides are “close” to negotiating a ceasefire. “Close” is a relative term, however, and even if 95 percent of the terms are agreed to, the remaining 5 percent is l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.355/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.86/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, down $3...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
China Market Analysis
Grain China’s General Administration of Customs says that grain imports were up 34.3 percent in April and an overall 18.1 percent for the January to April period. On the one hand, China produces more grain that it consumes and stockpiles large volumes. But Canadian grain analyst Mitch Mil...
Market Commentary: Small Gains as Corn/Soybeans Correct; Commodity Supercycle
What You Need to Know Today: The corn and soybean markets closed slightly higher in low-volume trade. The wheat market was mixed, with HRW continuing its downward trek on improved moisture. As expected, the bearish cattle on feed report drove down cattle prices and pulled hogs down with it. Mi...
U.S. Cattle on Feed on May 1, 2026
• U.S. Cattle on Feed Up in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million on May 1, 2026 - 2 percent above May 1, 2025. • Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.70 million head - 6 percent above 2025. • Marketings of fed cattle during April totale...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral with Bearish Undertones
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.6 million head, 102 percent of last year. Source: USDA, WPI Placements were up, but part of that is attributable to persistent drought c...
Fake Meat? On the End of the Aisle
Let’s return briefly to the fake meat hype cycle, now sitting somewhere in a dusty corner of your mind, not entirely forgotten. What happened to all those products, known as plant-based alternative proteins? They were supposed to be as good as real meat—cheaper, more environmentally...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.965/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, up $3.5 fr...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
April 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks were up sharply from March but 1.6 percent below April 2025 levels due to continued declines in poultry and pork stocks. Total poultry stocks were up 0.2 percent year-over-year (YoY) due to a slow expansion in broiler slaughter. Total pork stocks ros...
Market Commentary: A Market Trading War — Until It Wasn’t
Key Market Insights Macro markets delivered a full whipsaw today. Early in the session, crude oil had rallied back above $100/barrel as traders priced renewed concern over the U.S.-Iran standoff and potential supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz. That strength helped pull grains off their o...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6225/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.475/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, down $2...
Poultry Profitability Helping to Offset Challenging Beef Environment for Major Protein Producers
Key Takeaways: Major meatpackers are seeing massive losses in their beef divisions, with cattle prices at record levels amid low inventories. Drought continues to persist in cattle-producing areas in the U.S. Cattle herd rebuilding is not at the levels needed to meaningfully raise total cattle...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 May will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 101.4 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.535 million head. This is the first year-over-yea...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Lower on Improved Weather, Pre-Holiday Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese officials indicated that China and the U.S. have agreed to cut 10 percent tariffs on imports. Chinese officials confirmed that a “guiding target” has been set for purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, but fell short of confirming that the U.S. r...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6575/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9975/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Markets Pause to Assess China Deal Amid Broadly Bullish Backdrop
What You Need to Know Today: Excitement over China’s agreement to purchase $17 billion of U.S. ag commodities subsided, as traders are cautious amid the yet-unspecified allocation of those purchases. Monday’s Crop Progress report did not significantly change the narrative for corn...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts, reversing a three-week buying trend. Funds reduced the net long on all-ags by 92,000 contracts (8.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016. The...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.6725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.095/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.3/short ton, down $2...
Texas Joins Beef Antitrust Effort
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Friday launched an investigation into the beef industry over potential anticompetitive conduct among the nation’s largest meatpackers, his office announced Friday. He said the investigation would be conducted alongside a separate antitrust probe announ...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.77/bushel, up $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.645/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.36 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.5/short ton, up $0.2 from yes...
Market Commentary: Assumptions, Uncertainty, Volatility
What You Need to Know Today: Markets opened double digits higher Sunday evening following the release of Chinese and American official summaries of bilateral discussions last week. They chose the more optimistic view of future Chinese purchases of American farm goods versus the more opaque inte...
Market Commentary: Funds Come Off Their High Horse
With no bullish surprise out of Beijing this week and good weather taking over many global crop areas, funds spent the past couple of days selling off the peak positions they had built. CNN’s Live Updates blared, “No signs Trump and Xi resolved any thorny challenges.” By...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.3575/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.77/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.3/short ton, up $1...
Market Commentary: Lack of China Specifics Sink Market
There was heavy volume exiting soybeans, which dragged down the broader market today. The lack of a specific Chinese buying commitment for soybeans undermined speculators who had placed bets on state-directed trade. But even the Chinese do not totally ignore market fundamentals. They may still...
Administration to Suspend TRQ Waiver on Beef
On Tuesday, 12 May, WPI reported on an Executive Order being prepared by the Trump Administration to suspend tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means of addressing high beef prices in the United States. After considerable pushback from cattle producer groups,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.58/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.365 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $6 f...
Market Commentary: War, Weather, and Waiting
Key Market Insights The broad market is locked in on this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, but this is no longer just a trade summit. Increasingly, the meeting is becoming tied directly to Iran, energy security, and the growing global economic fallout from disruptions through the Strai...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.755/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.29/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, up $10.1 fr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.79/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2675/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $3.6 from yes...
U.S. to Temporarily Suspend TRQs on Over-Quota Tariffs on Beef
The Trump Administration is planning a suspension of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means to address high beef prices in the U.S. U.S. cattle and beef prices have increased based on exceptionally strong consumer demand, the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$208/head last week, down $24 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices continued to outpace wholesale beef values. The Choice cutout held near $389/cwt, but fed cattle prices climbed to nearly $259/cwt, extending the seasonal squeeze on packer spreads...
Market Commentary: Risks Abound During Headline Week
What You Need to Know Today: Energy markets are sharply higher after President Trump rejected a weekend Iranian counter proposal that did not include limits on the country’s nuclear program. The ceasefire looks increasingly fragile, with energy markets unlikely to return to normal soon...
DOJ USDA Give Update on Antitrust Investigation into Beef Packing
At a joint press conference last week between the Department of Justice and USDA, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated that he and Rollins were present to “... talk about our progress here at the Justice Department to hold meat packers accountable.” The structure of the beef...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $5.1 from yester...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week as weather concerns sustained risk-on buying. Funds added 97,000 contracts (9.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week, essentially reversing the...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.19/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.08/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $319.7/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: Prices Slide on a Hiatus in the Market
What You Need to Know Today Agricultural futures spent a third straight session mostly lower after partially recovering from morning lows. The war in Iran continues to drive energy markets with spillover into ags. After two days lower, crude oil turned higher after Iran demanded unlikely...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1225/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, up $1.6 f...
Livestock Round Up: Summer Grilling Season and Exports
It is now May, the kick-off of the retail meat demand surge, and a shift in the types of products. There are a variety of events that result in a notable spike in spending. First, just passed, is Cinco de Mayo, on 5 May, in which shoppers seek out such items as taco fixings and ready-to-heat me...
Market Commentary: War Premium Out. Weather Premium Next?
Key Market Insights Macros: Macro markets traded a sharp shift in tone Wednesday as traders aggressively pulled risk premium from the market on growing optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. Crude oil briefly traded back below $89/barrel while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 push...
Dressed Carcass Politicians
Gutless politicians are an unsurprising feature, but are nonetheless disappointing. Their constituents often do not care why beef prices are high; they just want them lowered. And if there is no easy solution, then the politician’s goal is to deflect the criticism toward anyone else, whet...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$184/head last week, down $84 from the prior week as sharply higher fed cattle prices outpaced a modest rebound in the Choice cutout. The cutout firmed to $388/cwt, but fed cattle prices surged to nearly $255/cwt, continuing to compress packer spreads despit...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1725/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $317.3/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Grains Ease on Profit Taking but Bullish Fundamentals Remain
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Iranian attacks on vessels and UAE infrastructure are sustaining geopolitical risk across energy and commodity markets Broad profit taking and weaker crude oil triggered a pullback across grains, signaling...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.2775/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.115/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Weather and Biofuels Drive CBOT Strength as Geopolitical Risk Builds
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. launches naval escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacks UAE oil infrastructure, escalating geopolitical risk and supporting energy and broader commodity markets Biofuel demand entering uncharted territory, with soyoil valuation increasingly di...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8575/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.41/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2275/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.9/short ton, up $1.6 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed End to a Higher Week
The corn and soy complex closed higher, with the wheat market mixed, as winter wheat closed up but spring wheat and livestock ended lower. Part of the strength for corn and soybeans may have been a weather premium, as crop planting has started out fast but warm weather has been slow to develop...
Per Capita, What Do You Eat?
Reflect for a moment on what you eat. There is a lot of advice out there in the ether about what you should eat, but really, what do you currently eat and how much? The good people at the USDA have some data for you, to help you answer that question. USDA says that we eat quite a bit of meat. L...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8025/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.3775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0325/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $319.3/short ton, up $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: Inflation Climbs, Crude Hesitates, Grains Reset
Key Market Insights Macros: Inflation isn’t cooling — it’s moving higher again. March PCE inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditures index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) rose 0.7 percent month-over-month, pushing the annual rate to 3.5 percent, the h...
Livestock Round Up: Farm Bill Includes Prop 12 Fix
An amendment to the U.S. House farm bill, aiming to remove the Save Our Bacon Act language in Section 12006 that would have stripped language to prohibit California’s Proposition 12, Massachusetts’ Question 3, and up to 500 state agricultural laws across the country, was blocked by...