Are Commodity Prices Ignoring Global Stocks?
WPI recently received a question from a client asking, in effect, if global crop prices have become immune – or at least less sensitive – to changes in global crop ending stocks. The reasoning offered was the perception that corn futures are becoming less responsive to declining glo...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 97.4 and 98.6 percent of 1 August 2024. Those estimates imply an on-feed i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.04/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Rearranged Trade Impacts
U.S. tariffs are reordering world trade and may further impact the nation’s agricultural exports. While soybean exports to China are stalled as that nation redirects all of its purchases to South America, that has been a political position that ignores the lower cost of U.S. soybeans. How...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 August)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $4...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
MAHA Draft Report Softens Pesticide Language
On 13 February President Trump signed Executive Order 14212 entitled “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (MAHA),” establishing the commission and charging it to submit an assessment on the status of the health of America, which was submitted on...
Weaponizing Trade; De-Weaponizing MAHA
Weaponizing Trade Using trade to influence geopolitical outcomes is not new but its use has intensified. While some might use the U.S. as the cause of its escalation, the American reaction is more of a lag effect to pre-existing conditions. Australia and now Canada can attest that China’s...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the second straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits thanks to record highs in the beef market. Margins remain deeply negative, however, which will be a concern for cattle markets going forward. One encouraging factor is the broad-based strength acros...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.065/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.8/short ton, down $...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 18 August)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Oil Cost and Input Forecast
According to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. petroleum production is forecast to hit 13.41 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 due primarily to improved well productivity. Increased supply will lower prices in 2026 and result in a fall in output to 13.28 million bpd in...
Negotiating Positions; Righteous Stand
Negotiating Positions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being joined in Washington today by EU leaders as they discuss with President Trump the next possible steps in the peace effort with Russia. European leaders bristled over being left out of the initial talks last Friday with Vladim...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 1-7, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 722,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 340,800 MT were down 49 percent from the previous week and 37 percen...
Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red
After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage. The market now awaits crop tour results, which at their onset appear to be confirming USDA’s view of big yields. Barring a miraculous...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE Shows Protein Production Mostly Down
Red meat and poultry production total estimates were down for August in the latest WASDE report. Beef production for the year was estimated at 25.926 billion pounds, which was 262 million pounds less than July on lower slaughter and relatively lighter dressed carcass weights. Steer prices were...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain as Dollar Falls; Soybeans Extend Rally on Acreage and Heat
The CBOT on Wednesday saw grains make a slight recovery and correction from Tuesday’s WASDE-induced selloff while the soybean market extended the bullish trade. Both corn and wheat pushed slightly higher for the day with concerns about heat in the Corn Belt supporting corn trade while whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.9725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4425/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.3/short ton, up $5.4 fr...
BRICS Unload; Pity the European Farmer; Policy Shorts
BRICS Unload President Trump has slow walked or balked at negotiating trade agreements with Brazil, India and South Africa. The supposed reasons include unfair treatment of Brazil’s Bolsonaro, India’s failure to open its market to U.S. farm goods while buying Russian oil, and South...
Market Commentary: King Corn Flexes Dominance; Soybeans Rise on Acreage Data; Cattle Surge
The August WASDE is almost always a market-moving event for at least one commodity, and Tuesday’s report was no different. Tuesday’s trade started off with some trepidation after China increased the import duty on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8 percent, which caused canola futures to cra...
Consumption Taxes; Food Costs and Adaptation
Consumption Taxes This analyst erroneously implied that value added taxes are cumulative through the supply chain when in fact any VAT paid on an input is deductible, thus ensuring it is the final customer paying the tax. The VAT is an important discussion point because the Trump Administration...
WASDE Soybeans - August 2025
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean production for 2025/26 to 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average farm price for soybean is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean m...
WASDE Corn - August 2025
USDA’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is a record 188.8 bushels per acre, which is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. U.S. exports are increased 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion bushels. Regardless, U.S. ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2...
WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
A Look at Inflation and Tariffs
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the CPI for July this morning. The CPI was up 0.2 percent for the month and 2.7 percent year-over-year. The rate was down from 0.3 percent in June and steady with the year-over-year of 2.7 percent at the end of June. However, the core CPI, whi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.945/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.05/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3275/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.2/short ton, up $5 from y...
NCGA Complains About Tariffs and Margins
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), along with 25 state associations, sent a letter on 1 August to USTR Jamieson Greer, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins complaining about “the calamitous environment for farmers who are trying to plan for harve...
Market Commentary: Momentum is Stalled Pending WASDE
After yesterday’s baseless bounce, today’s trading involved some retracement on a lack of fresh inputs. There was yet another flash corn export sale this morning, but higher volume sent corn futures lower. It was an unforgiving day, and the market is in a holding pattern until USDA&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.055/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $0 fr...
Dicamba Registration Re-Proposed
On 23 July, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that three formulations of the pesticide dicamba would be open to a 30-day comment period to re-register dicamba for use as over-the-top (OTT) use on dicamba-tolerant crops, namely cotton and soybeans. Previously, a federal d...
Market Commentary: A Bounce but Fundamentals Unchanged
Unlike in previous days, commodity futures opened higher today and sustained upward momentum. There was some short covering and some correction from over-sold but it is unlikely the market has found a seasonal bottom. There is good demand, but there is also the potential for record crops. Next...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 25-31, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 737,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 25 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 667,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 38 percent from the prior 4-wee...
Livestock Round Up: Trade Update
The beef sector experienced a week of record-breaking prices, and depressed packer margins for the week ending 1 August. Live cattle were a record $244.41 per hundredweight (cwt) for Choice steers, a $48 jump compared to the same week last year, while the cutout dropped $5.22 per pound and by m...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1825/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $3.9 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day Awaiting New Inputs
There were few fundamental inputs, but today’s agricultural futures markets established new contract lows for corn, SRW and HRS. There was a new contract high for feeder cattle. The market has received new private sector crop estimates and next comes crop tours and the August...
VAT Versus Trump Tariffs; MAHA Win?
VAT versus Trump Tariffs Most imports into the U.S. will face an average 15 tariff under Trump trade policy. Critics and news reports warned of disastrous impacts that have thus far failed to develop. This may be due to their relative context. Most countries apply tariffs such as the EU’s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.845/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Pushing Toward New Lows on Bearish Supplies
There was higher volume today trading corn and hogs, and lower volume in the soy complex and SRW. New contract lows were printed for corn, SRW, and HRW. Yesterday’s crop progress report reflected potentially stellar crops and yield estimates from private analysts continue to p...
Infuriating Ingratiation; Soul Crushing Jobs
Infuriating Ingratiation Based on European press reports, the terms of the transatlantic trade deal (see Tariffs as a Tax) are less objectionable than the “humiliation” of “submission” to the U.S. But that is just Europe being its usual “bantie rooster.” ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0825/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9075/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, down $0.1...
Snacking Turmoil
There are a lot of issues working against the snack world right now from tariffs to cocoa and sugar prices, to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) ban on dyes and artificial colors. Let’s take a look. First, there is the ongoing volatility of cocoa prices. Prices have been in an a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie Back to Work
It was a contrast of a mostly higher day but with new contract lows for corn and all three wheats. Corn wilted from private forecasts of big yields, and expectations of good crop conditions in contrast with slowed export inspections. It was mostly steady on the first day of a new week wit...
Politics of Tariffs; Tariffs as a Tax
Politics of Tariffs The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington heard legal arguments last week regarding Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to circumvent Congress’s power to levy tariffs. The reported reaction of the co...
USDA Reorganization
USDA has opened a comment period on its agency reorganization plan. Comments will be accepted until 26 August. The plan is similar to that of the first Trump Administration, which was widely panned by USDA personnel. One of the primary goals is to move employees out of the high-cost Washington,...
Market Commentary: Continued Edging Lower on Big Supplies
It was a mixed and quiet close to the market after a week of mostly price declines. There were new contract lows scored by front month SRW and HRS. Soybean traders didn’t know where to take their positions and so they left the September and November contracts both unchanged. Outside marke...
Tariffs, Mexico Extension, Federal Reserve, and Jobs Report
President Trump signed an executive order yesterday unveiling a massive overhaul of U.S. tariff policy, introducing a series of new tariff rates for U.S. trading partners. The executive order was signed hours before today’s deadline, but the order also included a provision to start the ne...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, up $4.5 from y...
How Will Soybeans’ Uncertain Outlook Affect Other Commodities?
November soybean futures’ recent move below the psychologically important $10.00 threshold has triggered concerns about weakness there affecting other markets. The question of how soybeans could impact other markets is germane because the oilseed is facing larger and more rapid adjustment...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets The dry bulk market rally of the past two weeks has ended with rates turning softer this week. The Capesize sector – which lead the recent rally – is now leading the way lower with the Panamax sector in tow. The reason for the weaker rates is that fresh cargo...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 18-24, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 592,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 17 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 296,700 MT were down 61 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the...
Market Commentary: New Highs and Lows, Mixed Volume and Results
December corn closed higher for a second session in a row, no doubt aided by the daily export sales reported by USDA. By contrast and since its recent high back on 18 July, both the September and November soybean contracts have closed lower each session but one. There was higher vol...
Livestock Roundup: Cage-Free Egg Trend Complicates HPAI Recovery
USDA released its Egg Products report yesterday. Shell eggs broken totaled 199 million dozen during June 2025, down 2 percent from June 2024, but 2 percent above the 194 million dozen broken during May. During calendar year 2025 through June, shell eggs broken totaled 1.15 billion dozen, down 1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276/short ton, up $1.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Export Demand Steadies Corn; Soybeans Fall with Midwest Rain
The CBOT showed mixed trends across its major ag markets on Wednesday with corn and KC wheat finding some short covering that stabilized values and led to small gains. A big part of the stability that came to corn futures was from a flood of export interest that has recently entered the market...
Friday’s Tariffs; China and Europe; MAHA Outlook
Friday’s Tariffs Brazil and India are two of the bigger countries facing President Trump’s tariff escalation this Friday, and both will receive extra punishment. U.S. tariffs on Brazil will be 50 percent as extra was added due to Mr. Trump’s opposition to the judicial treatmen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9575/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.5/short ton, down $2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.11/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.095/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.5/short ton, down $2.8...
Market Commentary: Weather Sinks Grain Bull Hopes; Cattle Hit All-Time Highs
The theme for this week’s grain markets seems to be that of favorable weather, big crops, and increasingly bearish sentiment. That was certainly the case Tuesday, as corn, soybeans, soymeal, and wheat all sold off amid fund and commercial selling. Several markets/contracts hit new contrac...
Trump Trade Squeezes; USDA Staff Relocation; Scale and Trade
Trump Trade Squeezes It did not help the EU’s trade negotiating position in Scotland this past Sunday when its leaders had just come from China where President Xi Jinping rebuffed their demands for rebalancing the trading relationship. China’s overcapacity causes it to dump steel, a...
U.S.-EU Trade Agreement
President Trump and EU President Ursula von der Lynen announced on Sunday that they reached an outline of a Cooperation Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade. This is the Trump Administration’s fifth agreement to date, along with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam, which is...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell $68/head last week and marked the third straight week of declines to end near -$220, which is back among the worst margins in the past decade. The culprit for weaker margins was an $6/cwt pullback in the Choice cutout and broader beef markets while fed cattle prices ral...
Market Commentary: Weather Overrides Trade Deal; Cattle Hit New Highs on Tight Inventories
The big news for Monday’s ag market trade wasn’t the U.S.-EU trade deal, but rather continued favorable weather in the U.S. Midwest that will boost corn and soybean yield potential to record or near-record levels. The weather has private analysts boosting yield expectations by sever...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.14/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, down $2.3 fr...
Humiliating; Keep Your Enemies Close; Contradicting
Humiliating U.S. trade talks with China this week are not expected to net anything more than an extension of the current standoff, which means nothing for U.S. soybean exporters. Meanwhile, the trade agreement yesterday between President Trump and EU President Ursua von der Leyen offers up many...
MAHA: More Pulses? Does it Matter?
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, spearheaded by the Secretary of Health and Human Services Department includes a lot of transformational goals, and some goals that are objectively silly. For example, Coca-Cola is transitioning back to sugar for some of its soft drinks, an announc...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders continuing to oscillate between slightly bullish and slightly bearish thinking. The past several weeks have featured modest changes in the net ag position (the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three classes of...
Market Commentary: Good Weather Trumps Demand
Markets opened today pretty much where they ended in the overnight and pretty much stayed that way all day, which is to say in the red. And it did so pretty much across the board on lower volume. There was just not any real change in the story of impending big U.S. crops arriving on top of big...
Bullish Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed Reports
USDA released two key reports on the cattle market today, the Cattle on Feed report and the July Cattle Inventory report. The Cattle Inventory report was suspended last year, so this is the first mid-year look at the cattle herd since 2023. The nation’s cattle herd, as of 1 Ju...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.21/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.6/short ton, down $1...
Cattle on Feed for July 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed is down 2 percent annually at 11.1 million head on July 1, 2025. Placements in June totaled 1.44 million head, 8 percent below 2024. Marketings in June totaled 1.71 million head, 4 percent below 2024. Other disappearance in June totaled 53,000 head, 7 percent bel...
WPI Transportation Report
Dy Bulk Markets Again this week, the bullish story is the rapid rise in Capesize vessel freight values with demand for Australian iron ore driving most of the rally. The Aussies have seen strong demand for August shipments in particular, which is pushing the forward end of the curve highe...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday but Friday is Another Day
Today’s trading opened with a head scratcher after USDA reported 135 KMT of U.S. corn sold to China. There isn’t any corn import demand in China, and if there was it probably would not originate from the U.S. It was quickly corrected to be bound to South Korea. Nonethele...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 712,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 761,000 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2425/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $2.5 fro...
Further Identification of Mispricing in Ag Futures
WPI offers the following analysis as a continuation of last week’s work examining mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. Readers may recall that this work seeks to identify for the major agricultural commodities where along the forward curve current futures have the greatest er...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow, along with the biannual July Cattle Inventory report for the first time in two years after it was suspended in 2024. For the Cattle on Feed report, analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal News Fails to Excite Ag Markets
The CBOT tried to rally early on Wednesday after traders had the opportunity to react to the U.S.-Japan trade deal, but a lack of details left markets wondering about the true impact on U.S. balance sheets. That meant corn, soybeans, and wheat all settled lower for the day, with favorable Midwe...
15 Percent and Certainty; Purity Tests; Cherry Picking Cherries
15 Percent and Certainty The U.S. trade agreement with Japan announced late yesterday was likely Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s final act. Financial markets reacted positively since the deal at least brings certainty. The surprise concession to 15 percent tariffs now sets a baseline that...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Weather Premia Withdrawn; Trade Talks Make Progress
CBOT futures saw mixed trade Tuesday with summer row crops pulling back amid a favorable Midwest weather forecast while wheat turned higher on slow sales from Russia. Corn and soybeans saw weaker trade develop overnight after the Crop Conditions report was positive and the weather forecasts con...
Ready for War; Deals Trickly In
Ready for War Europe has not won a kinetic war without U.S. help, but one German official quoted by the Wall Street Journal boasted, “If they [U.S.] want war, they will get war.” Admittedly, Europe has been far better at defensive trade policy than it has been at fighting Russian ag...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.255/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, up $2 from...
Egg Report Analysis
The July CPI showed that retail egg prices have steadily dropped this year, down 7.4 percent from June, but still remain 27.3 percent higher than last year. Through January 2025, the egg industry has 8 percent fewer laying hens compared to three years prior. During that time, approximately 100...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell over $100/head for the second straight week to hit - $151/head, which is among the worst margins in the past decade. The culprit for weaker margins was an $11/cwt pullback in the Choice cutout and other beef values while fed cattle prices were steady/slightly higher. Pa...
Market Commentary: Grains and Livestock Take Diverging Paths
Grain and oilseed markets pulled back to start the week after favorable showers fell across the U.S. over the weekend. The moisture revived crop prospects and offered a meaningful buffer ahead of some heat that will build over parts of the Midwest this week. The weather outlook was enough to st...
Ten Days and Counting
Outside markets are counting on trade deals or another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) come 1 August. Since the 7 July announcement of the small window to negotiate trade deals with Washington, The Dow is down 0.17 percent, but the S&P 500 is up 1.22 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.26/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.8/short ton, down $4...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money shifting into a slightly more bearish stance in the ag space as they added 25,490 contacts (37 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week. The more bearish positioning is surprising given the strength in futures that prevail...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3575/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.8/short ton, up $5.3 f...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Green Finish of a Bullish Week
The market was green across the board in grain and oilseed in the overnight and mostly finished that way in the day session except for soyoil, where profit taking prevailed. It seemed like a hot week for soyoil but after today’s session, it turned out to be corn that had the better week.&...
Strong Retail Sales Report and Inflation Outlook
The June retail sales report beat consensus expectations, rising 0.6 percent. Moreover, it was a strong report, with 10 out of 13 of the sales categories increasing. The largest increase was in the auto sector, a traditionally volatile category. June sales were up 1.2 percent, which came after...
LH 2025 and 2026 Cattle Outlook Challenging for Packers, Favorable for Producers
The biggest question in the cattle and beef markets lately has been “when does the rally stop?” after beef values and fed and feeder cattle prices have all rallied to new all-time highs (beef prices if one ignores the brief rally during the COVID-19 plant closures). The fundamental...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets The Capesize market is up more than 80 percent from last week’s report due to greatly improved iron ore demand in the Atlantic. There has been a notable increase in inquiries for vessels from Brazil and West Africa for the August/LH September time frame. Additionally, Aus...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 494,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,900 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up 7 perce...
Market Commentary: Quirky Day in a Quirky Week
It was a somewhat quirky day as grains took their lumps and soyoil supported beans. There was a new contract low in HRW, low volume trading corn and livestock, but high volume in soyoil. After trading 40,000 contracts, December soymeal settled unchanged, and moving in mere fractions, September...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.265/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Identifying Mispricing Opportunities in Ag Futures
In many ways, human nature is fascinated with the future – predicting what will and what could be and formulating plans accordingly. This is one factor that makes commodity futures markets inherently intriguing – their role in foretelling the future. As WPI readers have likely exper...
Livestock Roundup: July WASDE Beef Forecast Update
Per USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory report, the total number of cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was at its lowest point in more than 70 years. Moreover, this was the sixth consecutive year of smaller cattle inventory since 2019. There was a reduction at virtually every level...
Market Commentary: Three-Factor Rally for Soy Complex; Corn Extends Gains
Overnight trade saw short covering and corrective trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat but only the former two markets were able to hold their gains. Soybeans saw a bullish day from the confluence of three factors – the NOPA crush report, fresh “flash” export sales, and Presiden...
Ups and Downs in EU AG; Brazil Targeted
Ups and Downs in EU AG Farmers in Europe cannot catch a break. For years they were they toast of the EU with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) garnering over 60 percent of the budget. Then five years ago the Greens came to dominate European politics and their Green Deal and Farm to Fork refo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.205/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $4 from y...
Market Commentary: Corn Reversal Continues; Weather, Conditions Ratings Sink Soybeans
The big move at the CBOT Tuesday was a 1¾-cent gain in December corn futures – which isn’t much but that the development followed Monday’s bullish reversal is. The strength in new crop corn defies much of the fundamental outlook and suggests traders are sensing somethin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $2...
Trade War Dynamics
First quarter global merchandise trade accelerated faster than expected as everyone expedited purchases ahead of tariffs and potential slowing of import demand. These market exchanges have likely remained accelerated ahead of the now 1 August tariff deadline, but increased costs were apparent i...
Consumer Price Index and Employment Reports
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the June CPI this morning. The CPI increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising 0.1 percent in May. The CPI is at its highest since January of this year. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.7 percen...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins abandoned their two-week streak of positive numbers and fell $102/head last week to -$47. The move was expected as the Choice cutout was steady/weaker across the week while fed cattle prices jumped $8-10/cwt higher. The weaker margins are still not as bad as recent history,...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal while Soy, Wheat Slip Lower
Monday’s trade at the CBOT was interesting with corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallying off fresh contract or selloff lows overnight, but only corn holding onto those gains by the closing bell. For corn futures, the market seemed to be more focused on the USDA’s ending stocks figure...
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy; Purple Hair, Not Purple Food
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy Texas has become the seventh state to prohibit food products cultured from animal cells. Another half dozen states are considering legislative restrictions on these products, often at the behest of the agriculture sector. Bloomberg produced the map below on st...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.07/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.7/short ton, down $1.9 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money surprisingly shifting into a more bullish stance across the ag space, though still retaining a small net short. Funds cut 11,700 contacts (14.5 percent) off their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold relatively neutral posi...
Market Commentary: Bears Resist WASDE Curveballs
U.S. crop growing weather looks near perfect. Even dry parts of Nebraska and northern Illinois have just received good relief rains. The rest of July is cooler and damp, perfect for pollination. The share of the corn crop rated Good/Excellent is 74 percent, and its 66 percent for soybeans. ...
WASDE Soybeans - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion on the assumption that demand for soybean oil for biofuel would increase. The U.S. seasonal average farm price of...
WASDE Corn - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. corn is a reduction in ending stocks from the June estimate of 1.75 billion bushels to 1.66 billion bushels. U.S. corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion; If realized, those exports would be record high. The seasonal average farm pr...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
WASDE Wheat - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. wheat production to increase 8 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. However, the estimate for U.S. wheat exports is raised by 25 million b...
Hog and Pork Prices Set to Decline in Last-Half 2025
Lean hog futures surged to new contract highs over the past several weeks, followed by a correction in values that remains ongoing. Despite strong pork demand and reduced slaughter volumes and carcass weights, traders have been wary of the seasonal trend for prices to pull back in Q3 and Q4. WP...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.6/short ton, down $1...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Dry bulk markets continue to see diverging trends with the Capesize sector suffering under slack demand for iron ore, coal, and bauxite while Panamax and Supramax markets are higher on improved demand from the Atlantic and the East Coast of South America. Pacific markets have bee...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 27-July 3, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 567,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were primarily for South Korea (90,000 MT), Japan (70,000 MT), Mexico (55,900 MT), Malaysia (55,000 MT), and the Philippines (54,400 MT) and were partly offset by reductions for the Do...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE
Wheat spent the session mostly higher while corn, soybeans, and soymeal bounced around treading lower but eking out gains later in the action. Part of this was position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s July WASDE report by USDA. It will be a bull/bear square off with any surprise to the bulli...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.545/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.3/short ton, up $2.4 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs
Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of 1970, which sets standards to ensure eggs and egg products are properly labeled and packaged while preempting state law that imposes additio...
WPI 20225/26 Grain Outlook: Supplies Outpace Demand Growth
Heading into the USDA’s July WASDE report on Friday, WPI offers our outlook on the 2025/26 U.S. grain balance sheets and the season-average price. The big theme from this effort is that 2025/26 grain supplies will be ample and markets will have to move lower to stimulate enough demand to...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Break Support on Good Weather; Wheat, Corn Bounce off Lows
Weather is king right now for the grain markets and with no serious threat to the silking corn and pod-setting soybean crops, that meant lower trade at the CBOT. Soybeans bore the brunt of the selling for the day with the favorable weather forecast into early August suggesting the crop will set...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $282.9/short ton, down $1...
Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology
Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagnant system, someone to clear out the sclerotic elites clinging to their benefits. The U.S. president and his realpolitik has prompted every n...
Market Commentary: Corn Hits New Lows while Cattle Hit New Highs
Grains markets came under pressure again on Tuesday with USDA’s positive Crop Conditions report Monday evening reassuring traders and analysts of excellent yield prospects for this year. The report was most bearish corn where ratings hit another five-year seasonal high as the crop is silk...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1425/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.175/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.3/short ton, down...
Tariffs and Geopolitics
Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent of Canadians see the U.S. as the “greatest threat” to the Great White North. However, most Americans do not really think about...
Trump Tariff Letters Issued
Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trade deal is reached. These tariffs would affect all imports beyond key sectoral tariffs already proposed. In the letters, Trump warned countri...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were positive for the second straight week with holiday grilling demand supporting the beef market and packer profits. Packers have done an incredible job managing margins this summer and in just three weeks swung from the deepest losses on record to well above breakev...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders shifting from a neutral to a more bearish sentiment across the ag space. Funds added 63,000 contacts (360 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold a bearish position of 81,000 contracts short...
Are Commodity Prices Ignoring Global Stocks?
WPI recently received a question from a client asking, in effect, if global crop prices have become immune – or at least less sensitive – to changes in global crop ending stocks. The reasoning offered was the perception that corn futures are becoming less responsive to declining glo...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 97.4 and 98.6 percent of 1 August 2024. Those estimates imply an on-feed i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.04/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Rearranged Trade Impacts
U.S. tariffs are reordering world trade and may further impact the nation’s agricultural exports. While soybean exports to China are stalled as that nation redirects all of its purchases to South America, that has been a political position that ignores the lower cost of U.S. soybeans. How...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 August)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $4...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
MAHA Draft Report Softens Pesticide Language
On 13 February President Trump signed Executive Order 14212 entitled “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (MAHA),” establishing the commission and charging it to submit an assessment on the status of the health of America, which was submitted on...
Weaponizing Trade; De-Weaponizing MAHA
Weaponizing Trade Using trade to influence geopolitical outcomes is not new but its use has intensified. While some might use the U.S. as the cause of its escalation, the American reaction is more of a lag effect to pre-existing conditions. Australia and now Canada can attest that China’s...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the second straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits thanks to record highs in the beef market. Margins remain deeply negative, however, which will be a concern for cattle markets going forward. One encouraging factor is the broad-based strength acros...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.065/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.8/short ton, down $...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 18 August)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Oil Cost and Input Forecast
According to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. petroleum production is forecast to hit 13.41 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 due primarily to improved well productivity. Increased supply will lower prices in 2026 and result in a fall in output to 13.28 million bpd in...
Negotiating Positions; Righteous Stand
Negotiating Positions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being joined in Washington today by EU leaders as they discuss with President Trump the next possible steps in the peace effort with Russia. European leaders bristled over being left out of the initial talks last Friday with Vladim...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 1-7, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 722,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 340,800 MT were down 49 percent from the previous week and 37 percen...
Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red
After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage. The market now awaits crop tour results, which at their onset appear to be confirming USDA’s view of big yields. Barring a miraculous...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE Shows Protein Production Mostly Down
Red meat and poultry production total estimates were down for August in the latest WASDE report. Beef production for the year was estimated at 25.926 billion pounds, which was 262 million pounds less than July on lower slaughter and relatively lighter dressed carcass weights. Steer prices were...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain as Dollar Falls; Soybeans Extend Rally on Acreage and Heat
The CBOT on Wednesday saw grains make a slight recovery and correction from Tuesday’s WASDE-induced selloff while the soybean market extended the bullish trade. Both corn and wheat pushed slightly higher for the day with concerns about heat in the Corn Belt supporting corn trade while whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.9725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4425/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.3/short ton, up $5.4 fr...
BRICS Unload; Pity the European Farmer; Policy Shorts
BRICS Unload President Trump has slow walked or balked at negotiating trade agreements with Brazil, India and South Africa. The supposed reasons include unfair treatment of Brazil’s Bolsonaro, India’s failure to open its market to U.S. farm goods while buying Russian oil, and South...
Market Commentary: King Corn Flexes Dominance; Soybeans Rise on Acreage Data; Cattle Surge
The August WASDE is almost always a market-moving event for at least one commodity, and Tuesday’s report was no different. Tuesday’s trade started off with some trepidation after China increased the import duty on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8 percent, which caused canola futures to cra...
Consumption Taxes; Food Costs and Adaptation
Consumption Taxes This analyst erroneously implied that value added taxes are cumulative through the supply chain when in fact any VAT paid on an input is deductible, thus ensuring it is the final customer paying the tax. The VAT is an important discussion point because the Trump Administration...
WASDE Soybeans - August 2025
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean production for 2025/26 to 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average farm price for soybean is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean m...
WASDE Corn - August 2025
USDA’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is a record 188.8 bushels per acre, which is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. U.S. exports are increased 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion bushels. Regardless, U.S. ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2...
WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
A Look at Inflation and Tariffs
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the CPI for July this morning. The CPI was up 0.2 percent for the month and 2.7 percent year-over-year. The rate was down from 0.3 percent in June and steady with the year-over-year of 2.7 percent at the end of June. However, the core CPI, whi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.945/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.05/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3275/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.2/short ton, up $5 from y...
NCGA Complains About Tariffs and Margins
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), along with 25 state associations, sent a letter on 1 August to USTR Jamieson Greer, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins complaining about “the calamitous environment for farmers who are trying to plan for harve...
Market Commentary: Momentum is Stalled Pending WASDE
After yesterday’s baseless bounce, today’s trading involved some retracement on a lack of fresh inputs. There was yet another flash corn export sale this morning, but higher volume sent corn futures lower. It was an unforgiving day, and the market is in a holding pattern until USDA&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.055/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $0 fr...
Dicamba Registration Re-Proposed
On 23 July, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that three formulations of the pesticide dicamba would be open to a 30-day comment period to re-register dicamba for use as over-the-top (OTT) use on dicamba-tolerant crops, namely cotton and soybeans. Previously, a federal d...
Market Commentary: A Bounce but Fundamentals Unchanged
Unlike in previous days, commodity futures opened higher today and sustained upward momentum. There was some short covering and some correction from over-sold but it is unlikely the market has found a seasonal bottom. There is good demand, but there is also the potential for record crops. Next...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 25-31, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 737,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 25 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 667,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 38 percent from the prior 4-wee...
Livestock Round Up: Trade Update
The beef sector experienced a week of record-breaking prices, and depressed packer margins for the week ending 1 August. Live cattle were a record $244.41 per hundredweight (cwt) for Choice steers, a $48 jump compared to the same week last year, while the cutout dropped $5.22 per pound and by m...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1825/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $3.9 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day Awaiting New Inputs
There were few fundamental inputs, but today’s agricultural futures markets established new contract lows for corn, SRW and HRS. There was a new contract high for feeder cattle. The market has received new private sector crop estimates and next comes crop tours and the August...
VAT Versus Trump Tariffs; MAHA Win?
VAT versus Trump Tariffs Most imports into the U.S. will face an average 15 tariff under Trump trade policy. Critics and news reports warned of disastrous impacts that have thus far failed to develop. This may be due to their relative context. Most countries apply tariffs such as the EU’s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.845/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Pushing Toward New Lows on Bearish Supplies
There was higher volume today trading corn and hogs, and lower volume in the soy complex and SRW. New contract lows were printed for corn, SRW, and HRW. Yesterday’s crop progress report reflected potentially stellar crops and yield estimates from private analysts continue to p...
Infuriating Ingratiation; Soul Crushing Jobs
Infuriating Ingratiation Based on European press reports, the terms of the transatlantic trade deal (see Tariffs as a Tax) are less objectionable than the “humiliation” of “submission” to the U.S. But that is just Europe being its usual “bantie rooster.” ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0825/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9075/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, down $0.1...
Snacking Turmoil
There are a lot of issues working against the snack world right now from tariffs to cocoa and sugar prices, to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) ban on dyes and artificial colors. Let’s take a look. First, there is the ongoing volatility of cocoa prices. Prices have been in an a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie Back to Work
It was a contrast of a mostly higher day but with new contract lows for corn and all three wheats. Corn wilted from private forecasts of big yields, and expectations of good crop conditions in contrast with slowed export inspections. It was mostly steady on the first day of a new week wit...
Politics of Tariffs; Tariffs as a Tax
Politics of Tariffs The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington heard legal arguments last week regarding Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to circumvent Congress’s power to levy tariffs. The reported reaction of the co...
USDA Reorganization
USDA has opened a comment period on its agency reorganization plan. Comments will be accepted until 26 August. The plan is similar to that of the first Trump Administration, which was widely panned by USDA personnel. One of the primary goals is to move employees out of the high-cost Washington,...
Market Commentary: Continued Edging Lower on Big Supplies
It was a mixed and quiet close to the market after a week of mostly price declines. There were new contract lows scored by front month SRW and HRS. Soybean traders didn’t know where to take their positions and so they left the September and November contracts both unchanged. Outside marke...
Tariffs, Mexico Extension, Federal Reserve, and Jobs Report
President Trump signed an executive order yesterday unveiling a massive overhaul of U.S. tariff policy, introducing a series of new tariff rates for U.S. trading partners. The executive order was signed hours before today’s deadline, but the order also included a provision to start the ne...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, up $4.5 from y...
How Will Soybeans’ Uncertain Outlook Affect Other Commodities?
November soybean futures’ recent move below the psychologically important $10.00 threshold has triggered concerns about weakness there affecting other markets. The question of how soybeans could impact other markets is germane because the oilseed is facing larger and more rapid adjustment...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets The dry bulk market rally of the past two weeks has ended with rates turning softer this week. The Capesize sector – which lead the recent rally – is now leading the way lower with the Panamax sector in tow. The reason for the weaker rates is that fresh cargo...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 18-24, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 592,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 17 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 296,700 MT were down 61 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the...
Market Commentary: New Highs and Lows, Mixed Volume and Results
December corn closed higher for a second session in a row, no doubt aided by the daily export sales reported by USDA. By contrast and since its recent high back on 18 July, both the September and November soybean contracts have closed lower each session but one. There was higher vol...
Livestock Roundup: Cage-Free Egg Trend Complicates HPAI Recovery
USDA released its Egg Products report yesterday. Shell eggs broken totaled 199 million dozen during June 2025, down 2 percent from June 2024, but 2 percent above the 194 million dozen broken during May. During calendar year 2025 through June, shell eggs broken totaled 1.15 billion dozen, down 1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276/short ton, up $1.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Export Demand Steadies Corn; Soybeans Fall with Midwest Rain
The CBOT showed mixed trends across its major ag markets on Wednesday with corn and KC wheat finding some short covering that stabilized values and led to small gains. A big part of the stability that came to corn futures was from a flood of export interest that has recently entered the market...
Friday’s Tariffs; China and Europe; MAHA Outlook
Friday’s Tariffs Brazil and India are two of the bigger countries facing President Trump’s tariff escalation this Friday, and both will receive extra punishment. U.S. tariffs on Brazil will be 50 percent as extra was added due to Mr. Trump’s opposition to the judicial treatmen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9575/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.5/short ton, down $2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.11/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.095/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.5/short ton, down $2.8...
Market Commentary: Weather Sinks Grain Bull Hopes; Cattle Hit All-Time Highs
The theme for this week’s grain markets seems to be that of favorable weather, big crops, and increasingly bearish sentiment. That was certainly the case Tuesday, as corn, soybeans, soymeal, and wheat all sold off amid fund and commercial selling. Several markets/contracts hit new contrac...
Trump Trade Squeezes; USDA Staff Relocation; Scale and Trade
Trump Trade Squeezes It did not help the EU’s trade negotiating position in Scotland this past Sunday when its leaders had just come from China where President Xi Jinping rebuffed their demands for rebalancing the trading relationship. China’s overcapacity causes it to dump steel, a...
U.S.-EU Trade Agreement
President Trump and EU President Ursula von der Lynen announced on Sunday that they reached an outline of a Cooperation Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade. This is the Trump Administration’s fifth agreement to date, along with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam, which is...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell $68/head last week and marked the third straight week of declines to end near -$220, which is back among the worst margins in the past decade. The culprit for weaker margins was an $6/cwt pullback in the Choice cutout and broader beef markets while fed cattle prices ral...
Market Commentary: Weather Overrides Trade Deal; Cattle Hit New Highs on Tight Inventories
The big news for Monday’s ag market trade wasn’t the U.S.-EU trade deal, but rather continued favorable weather in the U.S. Midwest that will boost corn and soybean yield potential to record or near-record levels. The weather has private analysts boosting yield expectations by sever...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.14/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, down $2.3 fr...
Humiliating; Keep Your Enemies Close; Contradicting
Humiliating U.S. trade talks with China this week are not expected to net anything more than an extension of the current standoff, which means nothing for U.S. soybean exporters. Meanwhile, the trade agreement yesterday between President Trump and EU President Ursua von der Leyen offers up many...
MAHA: More Pulses? Does it Matter?
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, spearheaded by the Secretary of Health and Human Services Department includes a lot of transformational goals, and some goals that are objectively silly. For example, Coca-Cola is transitioning back to sugar for some of its soft drinks, an announc...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders continuing to oscillate between slightly bullish and slightly bearish thinking. The past several weeks have featured modest changes in the net ag position (the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three classes of...
Market Commentary: Good Weather Trumps Demand
Markets opened today pretty much where they ended in the overnight and pretty much stayed that way all day, which is to say in the red. And it did so pretty much across the board on lower volume. There was just not any real change in the story of impending big U.S. crops arriving on top of big...
Bullish Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed Reports
USDA released two key reports on the cattle market today, the Cattle on Feed report and the July Cattle Inventory report. The Cattle Inventory report was suspended last year, so this is the first mid-year look at the cattle herd since 2023. The nation’s cattle herd, as of 1 Ju...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.21/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.6/short ton, down $1...
Cattle on Feed for July 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed is down 2 percent annually at 11.1 million head on July 1, 2025. Placements in June totaled 1.44 million head, 8 percent below 2024. Marketings in June totaled 1.71 million head, 4 percent below 2024. Other disappearance in June totaled 53,000 head, 7 percent bel...
WPI Transportation Report
Dy Bulk Markets Again this week, the bullish story is the rapid rise in Capesize vessel freight values with demand for Australian iron ore driving most of the rally. The Aussies have seen strong demand for August shipments in particular, which is pushing the forward end of the curve highe...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday but Friday is Another Day
Today’s trading opened with a head scratcher after USDA reported 135 KMT of U.S. corn sold to China. There isn’t any corn import demand in China, and if there was it probably would not originate from the U.S. It was quickly corrected to be bound to South Korea. Nonethele...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 712,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 761,000 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2425/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $2.5 fro...
Further Identification of Mispricing in Ag Futures
WPI offers the following analysis as a continuation of last week’s work examining mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. Readers may recall that this work seeks to identify for the major agricultural commodities where along the forward curve current futures have the greatest er...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow, along with the biannual July Cattle Inventory report for the first time in two years after it was suspended in 2024. For the Cattle on Feed report, analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal News Fails to Excite Ag Markets
The CBOT tried to rally early on Wednesday after traders had the opportunity to react to the U.S.-Japan trade deal, but a lack of details left markets wondering about the true impact on U.S. balance sheets. That meant corn, soybeans, and wheat all settled lower for the day, with favorable Midwe...
15 Percent and Certainty; Purity Tests; Cherry Picking Cherries
15 Percent and Certainty The U.S. trade agreement with Japan announced late yesterday was likely Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s final act. Financial markets reacted positively since the deal at least brings certainty. The surprise concession to 15 percent tariffs now sets a baseline that...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Weather Premia Withdrawn; Trade Talks Make Progress
CBOT futures saw mixed trade Tuesday with summer row crops pulling back amid a favorable Midwest weather forecast while wheat turned higher on slow sales from Russia. Corn and soybeans saw weaker trade develop overnight after the Crop Conditions report was positive and the weather forecasts con...
Ready for War; Deals Trickly In
Ready for War Europe has not won a kinetic war without U.S. help, but one German official quoted by the Wall Street Journal boasted, “If they [U.S.] want war, they will get war.” Admittedly, Europe has been far better at defensive trade policy than it has been at fighting Russian ag...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.255/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, up $2 from...
Egg Report Analysis
The July CPI showed that retail egg prices have steadily dropped this year, down 7.4 percent from June, but still remain 27.3 percent higher than last year. Through January 2025, the egg industry has 8 percent fewer laying hens compared to three years prior. During that time, approximately 100...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell over $100/head for the second straight week to hit - $151/head, which is among the worst margins in the past decade. The culprit for weaker margins was an $11/cwt pullback in the Choice cutout and other beef values while fed cattle prices were steady/slightly higher. Pa...
Market Commentary: Grains and Livestock Take Diverging Paths
Grain and oilseed markets pulled back to start the week after favorable showers fell across the U.S. over the weekend. The moisture revived crop prospects and offered a meaningful buffer ahead of some heat that will build over parts of the Midwest this week. The weather outlook was enough to st...
Ten Days and Counting
Outside markets are counting on trade deals or another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) come 1 August. Since the 7 July announcement of the small window to negotiate trade deals with Washington, The Dow is down 0.17 percent, but the S&P 500 is up 1.22 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.26/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.8/short ton, down $4...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money shifting into a slightly more bearish stance in the ag space as they added 25,490 contacts (37 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week. The more bearish positioning is surprising given the strength in futures that prevail...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3575/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.8/short ton, up $5.3 f...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Green Finish of a Bullish Week
The market was green across the board in grain and oilseed in the overnight and mostly finished that way in the day session except for soyoil, where profit taking prevailed. It seemed like a hot week for soyoil but after today’s session, it turned out to be corn that had the better week.&...
Strong Retail Sales Report and Inflation Outlook
The June retail sales report beat consensus expectations, rising 0.6 percent. Moreover, it was a strong report, with 10 out of 13 of the sales categories increasing. The largest increase was in the auto sector, a traditionally volatile category. June sales were up 1.2 percent, which came after...
LH 2025 and 2026 Cattle Outlook Challenging for Packers, Favorable for Producers
The biggest question in the cattle and beef markets lately has been “when does the rally stop?” after beef values and fed and feeder cattle prices have all rallied to new all-time highs (beef prices if one ignores the brief rally during the COVID-19 plant closures). The fundamental...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets The Capesize market is up more than 80 percent from last week’s report due to greatly improved iron ore demand in the Atlantic. There has been a notable increase in inquiries for vessels from Brazil and West Africa for the August/LH September time frame. Additionally, Aus...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 494,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,900 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up 7 perce...
Market Commentary: Quirky Day in a Quirky Week
It was a somewhat quirky day as grains took their lumps and soyoil supported beans. There was a new contract low in HRW, low volume trading corn and livestock, but high volume in soyoil. After trading 40,000 contracts, December soymeal settled unchanged, and moving in mere fractions, September...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.265/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Identifying Mispricing Opportunities in Ag Futures
In many ways, human nature is fascinated with the future – predicting what will and what could be and formulating plans accordingly. This is one factor that makes commodity futures markets inherently intriguing – their role in foretelling the future. As WPI readers have likely exper...
Livestock Roundup: July WASDE Beef Forecast Update
Per USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory report, the total number of cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was at its lowest point in more than 70 years. Moreover, this was the sixth consecutive year of smaller cattle inventory since 2019. There was a reduction at virtually every level...
Market Commentary: Three-Factor Rally for Soy Complex; Corn Extends Gains
Overnight trade saw short covering and corrective trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat but only the former two markets were able to hold their gains. Soybeans saw a bullish day from the confluence of three factors – the NOPA crush report, fresh “flash” export sales, and Presiden...
Ups and Downs in EU AG; Brazil Targeted
Ups and Downs in EU AG Farmers in Europe cannot catch a break. For years they were they toast of the EU with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) garnering over 60 percent of the budget. Then five years ago the Greens came to dominate European politics and their Green Deal and Farm to Fork refo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.205/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $4 from y...
Market Commentary: Corn Reversal Continues; Weather, Conditions Ratings Sink Soybeans
The big move at the CBOT Tuesday was a 1¾-cent gain in December corn futures – which isn’t much but that the development followed Monday’s bullish reversal is. The strength in new crop corn defies much of the fundamental outlook and suggests traders are sensing somethin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $2...
Trade War Dynamics
First quarter global merchandise trade accelerated faster than expected as everyone expedited purchases ahead of tariffs and potential slowing of import demand. These market exchanges have likely remained accelerated ahead of the now 1 August tariff deadline, but increased costs were apparent i...
Consumer Price Index and Employment Reports
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the June CPI this morning. The CPI increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising 0.1 percent in May. The CPI is at its highest since January of this year. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.7 percen...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins abandoned their two-week streak of positive numbers and fell $102/head last week to -$47. The move was expected as the Choice cutout was steady/weaker across the week while fed cattle prices jumped $8-10/cwt higher. The weaker margins are still not as bad as recent history,...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal while Soy, Wheat Slip Lower
Monday’s trade at the CBOT was interesting with corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallying off fresh contract or selloff lows overnight, but only corn holding onto those gains by the closing bell. For corn futures, the market seemed to be more focused on the USDA’s ending stocks figure...
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy; Purple Hair, Not Purple Food
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy Texas has become the seventh state to prohibit food products cultured from animal cells. Another half dozen states are considering legislative restrictions on these products, often at the behest of the agriculture sector. Bloomberg produced the map below on st...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.07/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.7/short ton, down $1.9 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money surprisingly shifting into a more bullish stance across the ag space, though still retaining a small net short. Funds cut 11,700 contacts (14.5 percent) off their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold relatively neutral posi...
Market Commentary: Bears Resist WASDE Curveballs
U.S. crop growing weather looks near perfect. Even dry parts of Nebraska and northern Illinois have just received good relief rains. The rest of July is cooler and damp, perfect for pollination. The share of the corn crop rated Good/Excellent is 74 percent, and its 66 percent for soybeans. ...
WASDE Soybeans - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion on the assumption that demand for soybean oil for biofuel would increase. The U.S. seasonal average farm price of...
WASDE Corn - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. corn is a reduction in ending stocks from the June estimate of 1.75 billion bushels to 1.66 billion bushels. U.S. corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion; If realized, those exports would be record high. The seasonal average farm pr...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
WASDE Wheat - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. wheat production to increase 8 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. However, the estimate for U.S. wheat exports is raised by 25 million b...
Hog and Pork Prices Set to Decline in Last-Half 2025
Lean hog futures surged to new contract highs over the past several weeks, followed by a correction in values that remains ongoing. Despite strong pork demand and reduced slaughter volumes and carcass weights, traders have been wary of the seasonal trend for prices to pull back in Q3 and Q4. WP...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.6/short ton, down $1...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Dry bulk markets continue to see diverging trends with the Capesize sector suffering under slack demand for iron ore, coal, and bauxite while Panamax and Supramax markets are higher on improved demand from the Atlantic and the East Coast of South America. Pacific markets have bee...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 27-July 3, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 567,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were primarily for South Korea (90,000 MT), Japan (70,000 MT), Mexico (55,900 MT), Malaysia (55,000 MT), and the Philippines (54,400 MT) and were partly offset by reductions for the Do...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE
Wheat spent the session mostly higher while corn, soybeans, and soymeal bounced around treading lower but eking out gains later in the action. Part of this was position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s July WASDE report by USDA. It will be a bull/bear square off with any surprise to the bulli...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.545/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.3/short ton, up $2.4 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs
Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of 1970, which sets standards to ensure eggs and egg products are properly labeled and packaged while preempting state law that imposes additio...
WPI 20225/26 Grain Outlook: Supplies Outpace Demand Growth
Heading into the USDA’s July WASDE report on Friday, WPI offers our outlook on the 2025/26 U.S. grain balance sheets and the season-average price. The big theme from this effort is that 2025/26 grain supplies will be ample and markets will have to move lower to stimulate enough demand to...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Break Support on Good Weather; Wheat, Corn Bounce off Lows
Weather is king right now for the grain markets and with no serious threat to the silking corn and pod-setting soybean crops, that meant lower trade at the CBOT. Soybeans bore the brunt of the selling for the day with the favorable weather forecast into early August suggesting the crop will set...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $282.9/short ton, down $1...
Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology
Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagnant system, someone to clear out the sclerotic elites clinging to their benefits. The U.S. president and his realpolitik has prompted every n...
Market Commentary: Corn Hits New Lows while Cattle Hit New Highs
Grains markets came under pressure again on Tuesday with USDA’s positive Crop Conditions report Monday evening reassuring traders and analysts of excellent yield prospects for this year. The report was most bearish corn where ratings hit another five-year seasonal high as the crop is silk...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1425/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.175/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.3/short ton, down...
Tariffs and Geopolitics
Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent of Canadians see the U.S. as the “greatest threat” to the Great White North. However, most Americans do not really think about...
Trump Tariff Letters Issued
Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trade deal is reached. These tariffs would affect all imports beyond key sectoral tariffs already proposed. In the letters, Trump warned countri...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were positive for the second straight week with holiday grilling demand supporting the beef market and packer profits. Packers have done an incredible job managing margins this summer and in just three weeks swung from the deepest losses on record to well above breakev...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders shifting from a neutral to a more bearish sentiment across the ag space. Funds added 63,000 contacts (360 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold a bearish position of 81,000 contracts short...