AP Quant: Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins are on a one-way trip to a very unpleasant place and despite a brief rebound last week, remain absolutely dismal. Packer margins improved $66/head last week thanks to a massive surge in beef values and modest fed cattle gains, but profits were still horrid at -$237/head, whi...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Locks Limit Up Again; Wheat, Corn Fall; New Highs for Hogs
Soyoil remained the star of the CBOT on Monday and locked limit-up for the second day following the surprisingly bullish EPA RVO mandates released Friday. That carried soybeans and ICE canola futures higher – along with other vegoil markets – for the day, but soybean and soyoil were...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6975/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $283.7/short ton, down $8.2 f...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 16 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Selective Deportation; G-7 Outcomes; U.S. Has the Meat
Selective Deportation The New York Times credited USDA Secretary Brooke Rolins with persuading President Trump to leave undocumented workers in agriculture alone. It’s bad enough that the President’s most reliable voting block is also the most threatened by retaliatory tariffs, conc...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag market last week, due primarily to strong buying in the livestock and wheat complexes. Funds pared back bearish bets across the ag space by 28 percent (26,700 contracts) last week and now hold a re...
WASDE Soybeans – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/25 as higher soybean meal disappearance increases 2 percent due to greater pork and poultry production. I...
WASDE Corn – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies to create higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago due to increases in both area and yield. Planted area is estimated to be 95.3 million acres and yield is projected t...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4375/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6975/bushel, up $0.275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $2.6 fro...
Market Commentary: RFS Luck on Friday the 13th
Soybeans and soyoil were already spiking due to Israel’s attack on Iran and the bolt higher in the petroleum market and then the Trump Administration goosed it even higher by issuing a biofuel blend mandate of 24.02 billion gallons in 2026. It will be a record amount under the Renewable F...
Immigration and Trade: Update on the Chaos
After ICE raids of businesses – with more to come according to Tom Homan – President Trump admitted that his strict immigration policies are negatively impacting at least the farming and hotel sectors. A recent television news story showed empty radish fields in California devoid of...
Beef and Cattle Prices to Remain Strong through 2025 and 2026
The biggest question in the cattle and beef markets lately has been “when does the rally stop?” after beef values and fed and feeder cattle prices have all rallied to new all-time highs (beef prices if one ignores the brief rally during the COVID-19 plant closures). The fundamental...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk freight markets saw strength emerge this week with the Capesize sector rallying in early trade, but giving up some of those gains at the week’s end. Panamax and Supramax markets pushed higher initially as well, but now look like they will head sideway...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 30-June 5, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 388,900 metric tons (MT) for the 2025/2026 marketing year, which began June 1. Export shipments for June 1-5 of 115,700 MT were to the Philippines (57,500 MT), Taiwan (33,000 MT), Mexico (19,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (...
Market Commentary: Expectations Mostly Met
There were no shocks in today’s June USDA WASDE report, just tweaks that were generally within expectations. Corn, soybeans, soymeal, wheat, and cattle all pretty much settled in the same direction they were at just prior to the report’s release. It is important to note that USDA is...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.385/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.265/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4225/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.3...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE
USDA released its June WASDE report today. The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2025 is lowered from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year. Cow slaug...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.37/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.505/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat ahead of WASDE; Cattle and Beef Prices Running Red-Hot
Corn, wheat, and soybeans all traded higher overnight on growing optimism over the U.S.-China trade negotiations, though markets could not hold those gains. The talks in London made solid progress and negotiations are reportedly on track with the Geneva agreement that is allowing broader trade...
Outclassed; Unifying Food Safety; Inflation’s Real Issue
Outclassed In a nearly five-hour hearing before the U.S. House Agriculture Committee, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins proved again that she is one of the most politically astute of President Trump’s Cabinet members. She was adept at responding to a wide range of questions, nearly all of the...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 11 June)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App **** Note: After our recent website update, we're having difficulty correctly linking the app to this page. Until we get this fixed, please visit the app directly via the link below. *** https://worldperspectives.shinyapps.io/Combined_FOB_Price_...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn; Wheat Selling Continues; Cattle Wobble on ICE Rumors
The overnight CBOT trade showed corn pushing lower while the soy complex traded modestly higher on hopes for positive outcomes from the U.S.-China trade meeting this week. That trend quickly reversed, however, as corn became the upside leader in the day session on technical buying. Corn’s...
Calm Amidst Upheaval; Unilateral Impacts; Ethanol’s Rise
Calm Amidst Upheaval Data or surveys about attitudes or opinions are said to be “soft” data since they are emotive based and less reliable. Soft data in recent months had been signaling angst about the U.S. economy and Mr. Trump’s handling of it. Yet, hard data has reflected g...
New Meat Giant Created in Brazil; Most of Revenue from U.S.
While the MAHA report from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. still cites consolidation in the meat packing sector, Brazil’s competition regulator, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), has approved a merger of two major Brazilian meat processors,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $0.4 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
New all-time highs in fed cattle prices caused beef packer margins to collapse again last week. Beef packer margins fell $97/head to -$299 – a new all-time low – as cattle procurement costs vastly exceeded beef sales revenue. The margin weakness comes near the seasonal peak in beef...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather Forecasts while Livestock Futures Hit New Highs
Except for the livestock futures, which all hit new contract or record highs, the CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with favorable weather and bearish chart conditions driving the sentiment. The index fund roll ticked off its second of five days on Monday, so spreads and volumes patterns...
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up; CAP Rush; Europe’s Military and Agriculture
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up The big story involves U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators meeting in London this week. Discussions lasted three hours today and resume tomorrow but no one sees agriculture being involved in the talks. Instead, the focus is on export controls where Beijing is limiting...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.5/short ton, down $0.2...
USDA Trade Estimates Report Comes Under Scrutiny
USDA’s delay of its quarterly agricultural trade report, and exclusion of its typical explanatory text, raised concerns because the moves raised questions about the objectivity of the data. The bottom line is that the trade is uneasy about USDA statistics now. USDA data is considered a go...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bearish the major ag markets, last week with steady net selling across the grains and oilseed complex. Funds expanded their net short position across all ags by roughly 4.7 times last week and now hold a meaningful pos...
Market Commentary: Strong Friday and an Upward Bound Week
If yesterday’s trading looked like uncertainty ultimately succumbing to the bulls, today’s trading opened with the bears fully in charge. Contracts opened lower and mostly stayed that way until late morning when there appeared to be an epiphany with the bulls and they took charge. I...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.7/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Beyond the Report Headlines: Measuring Trump’s Effects
The BLS released the employment report this morning indicating that the U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, down slightly from April’s revised 147,000, but slightly above pre-report forecasts of 126,000. However, payrolls were revised downward an unusually large 95,000 for the prior two month...
Even After Recent Market Gains, Hog and Pork Outlook Remains Rosy
Anyone following the hog and pork markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. The USDA will issue their quarterly Hogs and Pigs report at the end of June, which will help inform the ind...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Markets In paper dry-bulk markets, the Capesize sector increased slightly this week on stronger demand from miners, but the move was insufficient to support the Panamax or Supramax markets, which turned lower. Most of the dry bulk markets are simply waiting for the economies of C...
Market Commentary: Volatility But Stability
It was a very active open this morning with lots of lead changes as corn and soybean traders wrestled over whether bears or bulls were in control. Even winter wheat, which looked solidly in the green took a brief turn south. Volumes were robust and trade volatile but in the end, only bean oil a...
Export Sale
Export Sales and Shipments for May 23-29, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 49,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025. Export shipments of 540,100 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Indonesia (81,100 M...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.455/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $0 from...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Margins Set to Rise; China Soymeal Prices Remain Weak
The Market U.S. soybean prices have mostly been treading water these past few weeks with neither bulls nor bears able to get the upper hand for more than a few days. Continued trade war worries and challenges building negotiations between the U.S. and China have contributed to recent weak...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Herd Rebuilding
The cattle herd is at historic lows and herd rebuilding has continued to be put off. Profitability is the key factor, and near record cattle prices have incentivized producers for the past couple of years pushing off herd rebuilding. To date, heavier carcass weights have helped mitigate some of...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Agriculture Front and Center; Confounding Farmers; Miscellaneous Fun; Farm Bill Fight; Feeding Gaza
Agriculture Front and Center It is notable that all the examples provided by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt of high foreign tariffs involved agricultural products. Her specific examples included, “50 percent from the European Union on American dairy, you have a 700 percent t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $2.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Getting Tough; Abundance Debate
Getting Tough It isn’t just the U.S. judicial system offering up hurdles to President Trump’s trade war. It has been noted that different countries have taken different approaches in responding to the tariff war. Smaller southwest and southeast Asian countries have generally b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Feeder Cattle Outlook
Feeder steer prices remain at historic highs across all major regions, averaging 22.9 percent higher year-over- year, and 58 percent higher than the five-year average. Some of the biggest gains have been in the Southern Plains, most affected by the imports of Mexican feeder cattle which are pro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Strong meat demand for the first weekend of the unofficial summer grilling season helped both beef and pork packer margins improve last week. Beef packer margins jumped $10 higher and hit their most profitable level in four weeks, which isn’t much to celebrate given margins were previousl...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rally Struggles
The major development at the CBOT on Monday was that bears finally gained full control of the corn and soybean markets with multiple bearish headlines allowing them to do so. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China and slow political progress on Capitol Hill pressured the soy complex overnigh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.9/short ton, down $2.4...
TACO or Not; U.S. – Japan Relations; Reciprocal Trade Momentum; Nutritional Police State
TACO or Not Financial markets have again steadied following the renewed war of words between Beijing and Washington. The two competitors cannot agree on much and signals that Xi and Trump will talk this week may or may not be true. Meanwhile, more U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum kick in this...
Tariff Threats Escalation Again: China and EU
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce import tariffs by a combined 115 percentage points, down to 10 percent. The agreement was intended to cool years of tariffs and trade conflict that came to a head on 2 April with the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. At the time, both sides indicated...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag markets, or at least less bearish. Funds cut their net short position across all ags by 73 percent last week and now hold an essentially neutral position of 20,000 contracts short. Most of that buy...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 16-22, 2025. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 128,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 501,200 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 12 per...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, down $0.1 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
Challenging Analogues
Drew Lerner at World Weather, Inc. makes an interesting analogy between U.S. weather this spring, and that of 1968. Both this year and 1968 involved recovery from peak solar activity (sunspots) and neutral ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) conditions. He looked at seven previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Livestock Roundup: Chicken Weights Suggest Sandwich War Return
USDA updated its forecast for broiler production in 2025 and released its initial estimate for 2026. The 2025 estimate was revised lower by 260 million pounds and is now expected to be up just 1.1 percent from the previous year. At the beginning of the year, projections were for a 1.4 percent i...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Trade Negotiation Hurdles; Bond Market Conflict; Companionship or Dinner
Trade Negotiation Hurdles U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet again tomorrow in a bid to reach an agreement by 9 July; there is a lot of skepticism about its relative success. Politico Europe reporter Camille Gijs notes that politicians in Brussels have no appetite to give the White House big co...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.7/short ton, down $2.6 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
MAHA Targets Glyphosate
The seminal report on the state of America’s health, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, focuses on the environmental exposure to pesticides in the food supply, which the report says is linked to developmental issues and chronic diseases. The report says that 40 percent of child...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate and finding a deal with the mercurial American leader are two different things. Some believe Mr. Trump wants specific purchasing commitments...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent from a year ago on May 1, 2025. Cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head and totaled 11.4 million. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.61 million head, 3 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Memorial Day Holiday
Monday, 26 May is a U.S. holiday, the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 27 May. The WPI staff hopes everyone has a good weekend...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory of feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.4 million head, 98 percent of last year. This weekend commences the summer grilling season. Placements were 1.6 million head, 97 percent of last year, compare...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2...
Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ financial outlook continues to improve with the recent gains in feeder cattle prices and overall weakness in feed costs so far in 2025. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis remain below those of 2014 and 2015, but recent gains in expected profits sugg...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 9-15, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 13,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 438,400 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.63/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.675/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $4.4 from...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.5 percent of last year with the range of estimates between an incredibly tight 98.3 percent and 98.8 percent of 1 May 2024. &nbs...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
EU Non-Proposal; Miscellaneous
EU Non-Proposal The EU has drafted a trade proposal for the Trump Administration that appears to be more fluff than meaningful stuff. Brussels offers to follow international labor rights and uphold high environmental standards. The EU already does this and is therefore not a concession. It offe...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Crunch Time; Miscellaneous
Crunch Time The “Big Beautiful Bill” providing the tax cut extensions sought by President Trump is supposed to be passed by the U.S. House by Memorial Day. The President told House Republicans today that they should not cut Medicaid, and they should not raise the cap on deducting st...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins improved for the first time in several weeks last week with gains in beef and pork prices offsetting gains in market animal values. Beef packer margins improved by $17/head last week but remain at their second-lowest levels in the past 15 years due to high fed cattle costs...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
AP Quant: Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins are on a one-way trip to a very unpleasant place and despite a brief rebound last week, remain absolutely dismal. Packer margins improved $66/head last week thanks to a massive surge in beef values and modest fed cattle gains, but profits were still horrid at -$237/head, whi...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Locks Limit Up Again; Wheat, Corn Fall; New Highs for Hogs
Soyoil remained the star of the CBOT on Monday and locked limit-up for the second day following the surprisingly bullish EPA RVO mandates released Friday. That carried soybeans and ICE canola futures higher – along with other vegoil markets – for the day, but soybean and soyoil were...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6975/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $283.7/short ton, down $8.2 f...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 16 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Selective Deportation; G-7 Outcomes; U.S. Has the Meat
Selective Deportation The New York Times credited USDA Secretary Brooke Rolins with persuading President Trump to leave undocumented workers in agriculture alone. It’s bad enough that the President’s most reliable voting block is also the most threatened by retaliatory tariffs, conc...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag market last week, due primarily to strong buying in the livestock and wheat complexes. Funds pared back bearish bets across the ag space by 28 percent (26,700 contracts) last week and now hold a re...
WASDE Soybeans – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/25 as higher soybean meal disappearance increases 2 percent due to greater pork and poultry production. I...
WASDE Corn – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies to create higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago due to increases in both area and yield. Planted area is estimated to be 95.3 million acres and yield is projected t...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4375/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6975/bushel, up $0.275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $2.6 fro...
Market Commentary: RFS Luck on Friday the 13th
Soybeans and soyoil were already spiking due to Israel’s attack on Iran and the bolt higher in the petroleum market and then the Trump Administration goosed it even higher by issuing a biofuel blend mandate of 24.02 billion gallons in 2026. It will be a record amount under the Renewable F...
Immigration and Trade: Update on the Chaos
After ICE raids of businesses – with more to come according to Tom Homan – President Trump admitted that his strict immigration policies are negatively impacting at least the farming and hotel sectors. A recent television news story showed empty radish fields in California devoid of...
Beef and Cattle Prices to Remain Strong through 2025 and 2026
The biggest question in the cattle and beef markets lately has been “when does the rally stop?” after beef values and fed and feeder cattle prices have all rallied to new all-time highs (beef prices if one ignores the brief rally during the COVID-19 plant closures). The fundamental...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk freight markets saw strength emerge this week with the Capesize sector rallying in early trade, but giving up some of those gains at the week’s end. Panamax and Supramax markets pushed higher initially as well, but now look like they will head sideway...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 30-June 5, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 388,900 metric tons (MT) for the 2025/2026 marketing year, which began June 1. Export shipments for June 1-5 of 115,700 MT were to the Philippines (57,500 MT), Taiwan (33,000 MT), Mexico (19,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (...
Market Commentary: Expectations Mostly Met
There were no shocks in today’s June USDA WASDE report, just tweaks that were generally within expectations. Corn, soybeans, soymeal, wheat, and cattle all pretty much settled in the same direction they were at just prior to the report’s release. It is important to note that USDA is...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.385/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.265/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4225/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.3...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE
USDA released its June WASDE report today. The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2025 is lowered from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year. Cow slaug...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.37/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.505/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat ahead of WASDE; Cattle and Beef Prices Running Red-Hot
Corn, wheat, and soybeans all traded higher overnight on growing optimism over the U.S.-China trade negotiations, though markets could not hold those gains. The talks in London made solid progress and negotiations are reportedly on track with the Geneva agreement that is allowing broader trade...
Outclassed; Unifying Food Safety; Inflation’s Real Issue
Outclassed In a nearly five-hour hearing before the U.S. House Agriculture Committee, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins proved again that she is one of the most politically astute of President Trump’s Cabinet members. She was adept at responding to a wide range of questions, nearly all of the...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 11 June)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App **** Note: After our recent website update, we're having difficulty correctly linking the app to this page. Until we get this fixed, please visit the app directly via the link below. *** https://worldperspectives.shinyapps.io/Combined_FOB_Price_...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn; Wheat Selling Continues; Cattle Wobble on ICE Rumors
The overnight CBOT trade showed corn pushing lower while the soy complex traded modestly higher on hopes for positive outcomes from the U.S.-China trade meeting this week. That trend quickly reversed, however, as corn became the upside leader in the day session on technical buying. Corn’s...
Calm Amidst Upheaval; Unilateral Impacts; Ethanol’s Rise
Calm Amidst Upheaval Data or surveys about attitudes or opinions are said to be “soft” data since they are emotive based and less reliable. Soft data in recent months had been signaling angst about the U.S. economy and Mr. Trump’s handling of it. Yet, hard data has reflected g...
New Meat Giant Created in Brazil; Most of Revenue from U.S.
While the MAHA report from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. still cites consolidation in the meat packing sector, Brazil’s competition regulator, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), has approved a merger of two major Brazilian meat processors,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $0.4 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
New all-time highs in fed cattle prices caused beef packer margins to collapse again last week. Beef packer margins fell $97/head to -$299 – a new all-time low – as cattle procurement costs vastly exceeded beef sales revenue. The margin weakness comes near the seasonal peak in beef...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather Forecasts while Livestock Futures Hit New Highs
Except for the livestock futures, which all hit new contract or record highs, the CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with favorable weather and bearish chart conditions driving the sentiment. The index fund roll ticked off its second of five days on Monday, so spreads and volumes patterns...
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up; CAP Rush; Europe’s Military and Agriculture
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up The big story involves U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators meeting in London this week. Discussions lasted three hours today and resume tomorrow but no one sees agriculture being involved in the talks. Instead, the focus is on export controls where Beijing is limiting...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.5/short ton, down $0.2...
USDA Trade Estimates Report Comes Under Scrutiny
USDA’s delay of its quarterly agricultural trade report, and exclusion of its typical explanatory text, raised concerns because the moves raised questions about the objectivity of the data. The bottom line is that the trade is uneasy about USDA statistics now. USDA data is considered a go...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bearish the major ag markets, last week with steady net selling across the grains and oilseed complex. Funds expanded their net short position across all ags by roughly 4.7 times last week and now hold a meaningful pos...
Market Commentary: Strong Friday and an Upward Bound Week
If yesterday’s trading looked like uncertainty ultimately succumbing to the bulls, today’s trading opened with the bears fully in charge. Contracts opened lower and mostly stayed that way until late morning when there appeared to be an epiphany with the bulls and they took charge. I...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.7/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Beyond the Report Headlines: Measuring Trump’s Effects
The BLS released the employment report this morning indicating that the U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, down slightly from April’s revised 147,000, but slightly above pre-report forecasts of 126,000. However, payrolls were revised downward an unusually large 95,000 for the prior two month...
Even After Recent Market Gains, Hog and Pork Outlook Remains Rosy
Anyone following the hog and pork markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. The USDA will issue their quarterly Hogs and Pigs report at the end of June, which will help inform the ind...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Markets In paper dry-bulk markets, the Capesize sector increased slightly this week on stronger demand from miners, but the move was insufficient to support the Panamax or Supramax markets, which turned lower. Most of the dry bulk markets are simply waiting for the economies of C...
Market Commentary: Volatility But Stability
It was a very active open this morning with lots of lead changes as corn and soybean traders wrestled over whether bears or bulls were in control. Even winter wheat, which looked solidly in the green took a brief turn south. Volumes were robust and trade volatile but in the end, only bean oil a...
Export Sale
Export Sales and Shipments for May 23-29, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 49,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025. Export shipments of 540,100 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Indonesia (81,100 M...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.455/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $0 from...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Margins Set to Rise; China Soymeal Prices Remain Weak
The Market U.S. soybean prices have mostly been treading water these past few weeks with neither bulls nor bears able to get the upper hand for more than a few days. Continued trade war worries and challenges building negotiations between the U.S. and China have contributed to recent weak...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Herd Rebuilding
The cattle herd is at historic lows and herd rebuilding has continued to be put off. Profitability is the key factor, and near record cattle prices have incentivized producers for the past couple of years pushing off herd rebuilding. To date, heavier carcass weights have helped mitigate some of...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Agriculture Front and Center; Confounding Farmers; Miscellaneous Fun; Farm Bill Fight; Feeding Gaza
Agriculture Front and Center It is notable that all the examples provided by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt of high foreign tariffs involved agricultural products. Her specific examples included, “50 percent from the European Union on American dairy, you have a 700 percent t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $2.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Getting Tough; Abundance Debate
Getting Tough It isn’t just the U.S. judicial system offering up hurdles to President Trump’s trade war. It has been noted that different countries have taken different approaches in responding to the tariff war. Smaller southwest and southeast Asian countries have generally b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Feeder Cattle Outlook
Feeder steer prices remain at historic highs across all major regions, averaging 22.9 percent higher year-over- year, and 58 percent higher than the five-year average. Some of the biggest gains have been in the Southern Plains, most affected by the imports of Mexican feeder cattle which are pro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Strong meat demand for the first weekend of the unofficial summer grilling season helped both beef and pork packer margins improve last week. Beef packer margins jumped $10 higher and hit their most profitable level in four weeks, which isn’t much to celebrate given margins were previousl...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rally Struggles
The major development at the CBOT on Monday was that bears finally gained full control of the corn and soybean markets with multiple bearish headlines allowing them to do so. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China and slow political progress on Capitol Hill pressured the soy complex overnigh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.9/short ton, down $2.4...
TACO or Not; U.S. – Japan Relations; Reciprocal Trade Momentum; Nutritional Police State
TACO or Not Financial markets have again steadied following the renewed war of words between Beijing and Washington. The two competitors cannot agree on much and signals that Xi and Trump will talk this week may or may not be true. Meanwhile, more U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum kick in this...
Tariff Threats Escalation Again: China and EU
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce import tariffs by a combined 115 percentage points, down to 10 percent. The agreement was intended to cool years of tariffs and trade conflict that came to a head on 2 April with the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. At the time, both sides indicated...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag markets, or at least less bearish. Funds cut their net short position across all ags by 73 percent last week and now hold an essentially neutral position of 20,000 contracts short. Most of that buy...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 16-22, 2025. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 128,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 501,200 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 12 per...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, down $0.1 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
Challenging Analogues
Drew Lerner at World Weather, Inc. makes an interesting analogy between U.S. weather this spring, and that of 1968. Both this year and 1968 involved recovery from peak solar activity (sunspots) and neutral ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) conditions. He looked at seven previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Livestock Roundup: Chicken Weights Suggest Sandwich War Return
USDA updated its forecast for broiler production in 2025 and released its initial estimate for 2026. The 2025 estimate was revised lower by 260 million pounds and is now expected to be up just 1.1 percent from the previous year. At the beginning of the year, projections were for a 1.4 percent i...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Trade Negotiation Hurdles; Bond Market Conflict; Companionship or Dinner
Trade Negotiation Hurdles U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet again tomorrow in a bid to reach an agreement by 9 July; there is a lot of skepticism about its relative success. Politico Europe reporter Camille Gijs notes that politicians in Brussels have no appetite to give the White House big co...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.7/short ton, down $2.6 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
MAHA Targets Glyphosate
The seminal report on the state of America’s health, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, focuses on the environmental exposure to pesticides in the food supply, which the report says is linked to developmental issues and chronic diseases. The report says that 40 percent of child...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate and finding a deal with the mercurial American leader are two different things. Some believe Mr. Trump wants specific purchasing commitments...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent from a year ago on May 1, 2025. Cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head and totaled 11.4 million. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.61 million head, 3 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Memorial Day Holiday
Monday, 26 May is a U.S. holiday, the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 27 May. The WPI staff hopes everyone has a good weekend...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory of feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.4 million head, 98 percent of last year. This weekend commences the summer grilling season. Placements were 1.6 million head, 97 percent of last year, compare...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2...
Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ financial outlook continues to improve with the recent gains in feeder cattle prices and overall weakness in feed costs so far in 2025. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis remain below those of 2014 and 2015, but recent gains in expected profits sugg...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 9-15, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 13,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 438,400 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.63/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.675/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $4.4 from...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.5 percent of last year with the range of estimates between an incredibly tight 98.3 percent and 98.8 percent of 1 May 2024. &nbs...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
EU Non-Proposal; Miscellaneous
EU Non-Proposal The EU has drafted a trade proposal for the Trump Administration that appears to be more fluff than meaningful stuff. Brussels offers to follow international labor rights and uphold high environmental standards. The EU already does this and is therefore not a concession. It offe...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Crunch Time; Miscellaneous
Crunch Time The “Big Beautiful Bill” providing the tax cut extensions sought by President Trump is supposed to be passed by the U.S. House by Memorial Day. The President told House Republicans today that they should not cut Medicaid, and they should not raise the cap on deducting st...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins improved for the first time in several weeks last week with gains in beef and pork prices offsetting gains in market animal values. Beef packer margins improved by $17/head last week but remain at their second-lowest levels in the past 15 years due to high fed cattle costs...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...