Recent Wheat Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2375/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.6/short ton, up $0.3 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.3/short ton, down $2.1...
Sept. Grain Stocks Key Charts and Data
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria cancelled its tender for 200,000 MT of wheat. No reason was given for the cancellation but a new tender is expected shortly. Turkey’s wheat and barley production are seen as lower for 2025, by the FAO, with wheat produ...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 29 September)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.4/short ton, up $0.8...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currency and stabilize the exchange rate. To do so, it temporarily eliminated export duties on grains and by-products, effective until 31 October 2...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Tuesday, the EU Commission said it is considering a proposal to delay the implantation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that is currently scheduled to take effect on 30 December 2025 for large companies and 30 June 2026 for small companies. A final decision is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.6/short ton, up $1.4...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today, we extend that analysis to show our forecasts for more minor crop acres. Briefly, our modeling results show that producers across the U.S. a...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 12-18, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 539,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 43 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 896,000 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 18 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.27/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.2/short ton, down $2.9 fro...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, which will lead to a 0.4-pe...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.09/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.1/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 September 2025 Bullish sentiment returned to the Russian grain markets during the third week of September, defying expectations of continued bearishness. Despite exportable surpluses and farmers’ need to generate cash to service rising interest-bearing l...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to drive the grain market outlook. Corn demand remains especially strong with Mexico booking another several cargoes overnight despite its own outl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.205/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $277.3/short ton, down $2.8 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s 2025 wheat crop is above the five-year average at a total of 5.1 MMT which is expected to result in 2025/26 wheat imports dropping by about 9 percent to 2.0 MMT, according to the FAO. The past two wheat crops in Iraq...
Market Commentary: Negative Icing on a Bearish Cake; Cattle Rally as NWS Found 70 Miles from Border
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the week as markets had a negative reaction to surprising policy developments from South America. Argentina’s government announced a zero-export tax policy on grains through 31 October in an attempt to boost domestic reserves of U.S. dollars (for detail...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.11/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $280.1/short ton, down $...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Tax Policy Update On Monday, 22 September, the Argentine government announced a temporary elimination of export duties on all grains and by-products. The measure will remain in effect until 31 October 2025, or until $7 billion in foreign currency inflows are reached, whichever...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders cutting back short positions across the ag space as technical conditions strengthened for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Funds cut their net short across all ag futures by 79 percent last week and are now flat the market, holding just 17,000 c...
Market Commentary: Absent Chinese Demand, Supply Dominates the Mood
Markets were over-weight on the Xi – Trump phone call this morning. The phone call went well enough but after it became clear there was no deal on ag or soybeans, the latter turned south. Beans and meal had traded higher overnight and at the open, but like all three wheats, closed on loss...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.255/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284/short ton, down $0.7 fro...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 5-11, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 377,500 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 24 percent from the previous week, but down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 774,800 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 19 percent...
Market Commentary: Looking for Demand Amidst Ample Supplies
Grain and oilseed trading was mostly in the red today, with livestock markets trading higher. Volume was higher today in soymeal, but otherwise it was modest and even relatively low in corn. Markets tend to drift when lacking any major new directional inputs. USDA’s weekly Export Sa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.7/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Markets Hopeful but Guarded on China; CBOT Falls on Demand Worries
Technical selling, disappointment with the USDA’s latest policy moves, and favorable rains across the Midwest took a bearish toll on the CBOT markets Wednesday. The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates today and signaled a more dovish approach for the next several months, whic...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4375/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.7/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 8–12 September 2025 Bearish sentiment in the Russian grains markets eased during the second week of September, with prices stabilizing in some regions. Proximity to ports continues to offer premiums as export activity gains momentum. Most grains are experiencing sol...
Market Commentary: Perfect Micro-Storm for Grains
The CBOT was higher on Tuesday in a continuation of the post-WASDE exuberance. Rather than USDA’s world balance sheets providing a reason to rally, however, it was the Crop Progress report, rumors of new export business, and progress in a U.S.-China trade agreement that motivated the day&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.295/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4975/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.1/short ton, up $0.4 from yes...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s courts have surprised the grain/oilseed industry by ruling that an arbitration award like a recent one on a FOSFA contract cannot be enforced in Turkey. This decision will be of concern to sellers and buyers using b...
Market Commentary: Waiting for Confirmation or Contradiction
The CBOT was mostly in the red to start the week with the bullishness from Friday’s WASDE report failing to trigger enthusiasm from bulls this week. Corn and soybeans both tried to rally and follow Friday’s bullish action, but quickly triggered farmer/hedge selling and profit taking...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.7/short ton, down $2.9...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Global wheat futures all hit new contract lows last week with strong Russian exports (at cheaper prices), larger global production estimates, and few weather risks driving the bearish momentum. Markets managed to pare back those losses, however, by the week’s end and a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders embarking on a second straight week of net short selling across the ag space as they slightly expanded a relatively neutral position. The expansion of the short position came mostly from selling in soybeans, soyoil, and SRW wheat, with min...
Market Commentary: USDA Surprises; Market Marches Its Own Beat
While there was some red flashing early in today’s trading session, by the close all major grain and oilseed contracts were in the green. Ahead of USDA’s September WASDE report, the trade was focused on yield cuts, which had also been the principal output of various private sector c...
WASDE Soybeans - Sep 2025
Soybeans – USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for higher U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average soybean price is forecast at $10.00 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal and the soybean oil prices are unchanged...
WASDE Wheat - Sep 2025
Wheat - USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for U.S. total wheat exports to increase by 25 million bushels to 900 million. That reduced ending stocks by 25 million bushels to 844 million - slightly less than last year. The projected 2025/26 seasonal average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4625/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, up $0.9 from ye...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Calm, Confident, But Correct?
The trading before a major WASDE report always entails differing vibes. It is more volatile when there is wide variance in expectations, and more subdued when the mood is more sublime. This might count as the latter except where it wasn’t. The volume trading corn, wheat and so...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.215/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.7/short ton, up $1.9 from...
Market Commentary: Calm for the Day but Geopolitics Hint at Looming Volatility
The CBOT was solidly in the red on Wednesday while cattle futures regained some of their former strength. Markets had to process multiple headlines at the national/international political level, which led to some mild risk-off trade. Mostly, however, for grains, the looming WASDE dominated the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.17/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.8/short ton, down $3.2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 1–5 September 2025 Bearish sentiments prevailed across both the European and Asian parts of Russia. The market is under pressure as stocks and yields are better than expected especially in Volga Valley and Black Soil region. Siberia and Urals harvesting campaign is...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The U.S. is not the only country suffering from tight cattle supplies and rising beef values, as the EU is battling the same problem. Across the EU, there is a shortage of slaughter cattle that continues to intensify and drive prices higher. Germany is seeing slightly greate...
Market Commentary: A Tale of Two Markets: Grains Consolidate While Cattle Correction Accelerates
Note: WPI’s data supplier for futures pricing and data experienced a significant outage on Tuesday, 9 September. All prices/quotes in this article are believed to be correct, but clients should double-check values before acting on any information contained herein. The ag markets sho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $289/short ton, up $3.4 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan flooding reportedly damaged as much as 30 percent of wheat stocks in some areas, especially eastern Punjab. Local wheat prices are said to be up by 40 percent with further increases expected. Trade reports say that due to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, up $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Technical Momentum Shifts at Odds with Fundamentals
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with technical factors driving short covering and some cautious fresh long buying. There wasn’t much from a fundamental standpoint to drive the move, but the technical picture is firming for most commodities. Corn saw substantial follow-through...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Last week’s rainfall covered much of Argentina’s western wheat-growing region, improving prospects for cereals there. Still, 27.3 percent of the area now shows excess water — up from 7 percent the prior week — mainly in the east and south, where fungal diseas...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders breaking a three-week trend of net short covering in the ag space as managed money traders expanded their almost-neutral positions. The expansion of short holdings came primarily from selling across the three soy complex contracts and from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1925/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.27/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284/short ton, up $0.3 fro...
Market Commentary: Ending on a Sour Note
The weak jobs report sent most economic indices lower, except for gold. The dollar slumped lower despite the increased likelihood of interest rate cuts. Corn, soybeans and some wheat contract teased higher at the start of the session but they couldn’t hold. There was yet another new contr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 22-28, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 313,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 46 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 890,600 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 50 perc...
Market Commentary: Some Rebounds, Some New Contract Lows
Most of the board traded in the red to start today’s trading session. There is too much corn and soybeans and not enough prospective buyers. All three major wheat contracts hit new lows today. Except for corn, major contracts are bearishly trading below major moving averages. Grower group...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.33/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.7/short ton, up $1.2 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.315/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $282.5/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Market Commentary: Macro Malaise and Yield Expectations Turn CBOT Lower
The CBOT was almost entirely lower across the major ag markets on Wednesday with large supply expectations for the 2025 Northern Hemisphere grain and oilseed crops driving the weakness. More crop tours in the U.S. confirm large corn yields and high soybean pod counts/yield potential, while the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 25 – 29 August 2025 Bearish sentiments prevail on the Russian market. Most likely the bottom price levels are near for most of the grains except corn whose season started in September. Bearish trend is a tradition for this part of the season as harvesting is un...
Market Commentary: Court Ruling Rattles Markets; Corn Rallies on Export Demand
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the holiday-shortened trading week with Friday’s ruling that President Trump’s tariffs may be illegal throwing ag and other markets into confusion. The ruling makes unclear the outlook for negotiating further trade deals – or even continuing...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.41/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.8/short ton, down $5.2 fr...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Except for the CBOT futures market, global wheat values were lower last week as larger harvest expectations weighed on market sentiment. With forecasts growing for the 2025/26 crops in Russia, Australia, and Canada, there seems no shortage of wheat supplies this year, which...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia’s cereal production in 2025 has improved due to better rainfall, according to the FAO, with wheat production up by 8.7 percent to 1.25 MMT and barley production up by 26.7 percent to 380,000 MT. Cereals imports for 2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
For the third straight week, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The move came primarily from continued short covering in the soy complex, with modest buying activity in wheat and corn. Funds are now essen...
Market Commentary: Caution About Supplies, Confidence in Demand
Although the soy complex and wheat opened lower, there was confidence in the corn number and by late morning most major contracts were in the green, aided by shorts that were selling at the end of the month to book profits. December HRS printed a new contract low today. There was high volume tr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.545/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $289/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Exceeding Expectations, Perhaps on a Thread
Commodity markets opened mostly in the red but managed a turnaround late in the session for corn, beans and wheat. There was not much fundamentally driving the market. Export sales were solid but there have been no new flash sales reports for several days. By contrast, equity markets opened mix...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 15-21, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 579,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 1,005,600 MT--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.48/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.3/short ton, down $0.9 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Grains while Bulls Dominate Livestock, but will the Trends Hold?
Trade in ag futures was a tale of two cities, with grains sinking into the red while the livestock markets rallied to fresh highs. Grains and oilseeds saw pressure from lackluster technical conditions and, for corn and wheat, expectations of ample domestic and global supplies. Soybeans saw weak...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.2/short ton, down $5.1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 18 – 22 August 2025 The market continues following a bearish trend, mostly related to the peak of the harvest campaign and a surplus of freshly cut grains. The export market continues driving prices inside the country and while European Russia is focused on Azov Sea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, up $2.4 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Lebanon’s 2025 grain crops are expected to be much lower, as much as 25 percent lower for wheat, due to the drought and to local conflict. Rainfall is down by 50 percent in some areas while due to conflict many farmers were...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT as Markets Eye Yields, First Notice Day
Friday’s market fireworks faded a bit on Monday as traders took the opportunity to rest and reassess fundamentals. There were no particularly big news items over the weekend to drive a big swing in markets, which meant that a lull was almost bound to follow last week’s large moves i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.9/short ton, down $0...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced only 1.3 percent this week, reaching 96 percent complete nationwide. The final stretch is always slower, and this year the harvest could extend into September as recent rains further delay fieldwork in Buenos Aires province. Farmer selling has...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space for the second straight week. The move came amid short covering in the soy complex and corn, where technical momentum turned higher. Funds are now essentially neutral acr...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.585/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.5/short ton, down $2.7...
Market Commentary: Market Wiggles on Pro Farmer, Weather and Demand
Yesterday’s grain and oilseed rally extended, for the most part, today. While wheat led the complex upward yesterday, today’s higher volume trading corn and the soy complex gave the thrust in today’s session. Soymeal and the livestock complex took a breather today. The incomin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2375/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.6/short ton, up $0.3 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.3/short ton, down $2.1...
Sept. Grain Stocks Key Charts and Data
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria cancelled its tender for 200,000 MT of wheat. No reason was given for the cancellation but a new tender is expected shortly. Turkey’s wheat and barley production are seen as lower for 2025, by the FAO, with wheat produ...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 29 September)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.4/short ton, up $0.8...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currency and stabilize the exchange rate. To do so, it temporarily eliminated export duties on grains and by-products, effective until 31 October 2...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Tuesday, the EU Commission said it is considering a proposal to delay the implantation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that is currently scheduled to take effect on 30 December 2025 for large companies and 30 June 2026 for small companies. A final decision is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.6/short ton, up $1.4...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today, we extend that analysis to show our forecasts for more minor crop acres. Briefly, our modeling results show that producers across the U.S. a...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 12-18, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 539,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 43 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 896,000 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 18 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.27/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.2/short ton, down $2.9 fro...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, which will lead to a 0.4-pe...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.09/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.1/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 September 2025 Bullish sentiment returned to the Russian grain markets during the third week of September, defying expectations of continued bearishness. Despite exportable surpluses and farmers’ need to generate cash to service rising interest-bearing l...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to drive the grain market outlook. Corn demand remains especially strong with Mexico booking another several cargoes overnight despite its own outl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.205/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $277.3/short ton, down $2.8 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s 2025 wheat crop is above the five-year average at a total of 5.1 MMT which is expected to result in 2025/26 wheat imports dropping by about 9 percent to 2.0 MMT, according to the FAO. The past two wheat crops in Iraq...
Market Commentary: Negative Icing on a Bearish Cake; Cattle Rally as NWS Found 70 Miles from Border
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the week as markets had a negative reaction to surprising policy developments from South America. Argentina’s government announced a zero-export tax policy on grains through 31 October in an attempt to boost domestic reserves of U.S. dollars (for detail...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.11/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $280.1/short ton, down $...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Tax Policy Update On Monday, 22 September, the Argentine government announced a temporary elimination of export duties on all grains and by-products. The measure will remain in effect until 31 October 2025, or until $7 billion in foreign currency inflows are reached, whichever...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders cutting back short positions across the ag space as technical conditions strengthened for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Funds cut their net short across all ag futures by 79 percent last week and are now flat the market, holding just 17,000 c...
Market Commentary: Absent Chinese Demand, Supply Dominates the Mood
Markets were over-weight on the Xi – Trump phone call this morning. The phone call went well enough but after it became clear there was no deal on ag or soybeans, the latter turned south. Beans and meal had traded higher overnight and at the open, but like all three wheats, closed on loss...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.255/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284/short ton, down $0.7 fro...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 5-11, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 377,500 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 24 percent from the previous week, but down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 774,800 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 19 percent...
Market Commentary: Looking for Demand Amidst Ample Supplies
Grain and oilseed trading was mostly in the red today, with livestock markets trading higher. Volume was higher today in soymeal, but otherwise it was modest and even relatively low in corn. Markets tend to drift when lacking any major new directional inputs. USDA’s weekly Export Sa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.7/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Markets Hopeful but Guarded on China; CBOT Falls on Demand Worries
Technical selling, disappointment with the USDA’s latest policy moves, and favorable rains across the Midwest took a bearish toll on the CBOT markets Wednesday. The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates today and signaled a more dovish approach for the next several months, whic...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4375/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.7/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 8–12 September 2025 Bearish sentiment in the Russian grains markets eased during the second week of September, with prices stabilizing in some regions. Proximity to ports continues to offer premiums as export activity gains momentum. Most grains are experiencing sol...
Market Commentary: Perfect Micro-Storm for Grains
The CBOT was higher on Tuesday in a continuation of the post-WASDE exuberance. Rather than USDA’s world balance sheets providing a reason to rally, however, it was the Crop Progress report, rumors of new export business, and progress in a U.S.-China trade agreement that motivated the day&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.295/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4975/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.1/short ton, up $0.4 from yes...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s courts have surprised the grain/oilseed industry by ruling that an arbitration award like a recent one on a FOSFA contract cannot be enforced in Turkey. This decision will be of concern to sellers and buyers using b...
Market Commentary: Waiting for Confirmation or Contradiction
The CBOT was mostly in the red to start the week with the bullishness from Friday’s WASDE report failing to trigger enthusiasm from bulls this week. Corn and soybeans both tried to rally and follow Friday’s bullish action, but quickly triggered farmer/hedge selling and profit taking...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.7/short ton, down $2.9...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Global wheat futures all hit new contract lows last week with strong Russian exports (at cheaper prices), larger global production estimates, and few weather risks driving the bearish momentum. Markets managed to pare back those losses, however, by the week’s end and a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders embarking on a second straight week of net short selling across the ag space as they slightly expanded a relatively neutral position. The expansion of the short position came mostly from selling in soybeans, soyoil, and SRW wheat, with min...
Market Commentary: USDA Surprises; Market Marches Its Own Beat
While there was some red flashing early in today’s trading session, by the close all major grain and oilseed contracts were in the green. Ahead of USDA’s September WASDE report, the trade was focused on yield cuts, which had also been the principal output of various private sector c...
WASDE Soybeans - Sep 2025
Soybeans – USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for higher U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average soybean price is forecast at $10.00 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal and the soybean oil prices are unchanged...
WASDE Wheat - Sep 2025
Wheat - USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for U.S. total wheat exports to increase by 25 million bushels to 900 million. That reduced ending stocks by 25 million bushels to 844 million - slightly less than last year. The projected 2025/26 seasonal average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4625/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, up $0.9 from ye...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Calm, Confident, But Correct?
The trading before a major WASDE report always entails differing vibes. It is more volatile when there is wide variance in expectations, and more subdued when the mood is more sublime. This might count as the latter except where it wasn’t. The volume trading corn, wheat and so...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.215/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.7/short ton, up $1.9 from...
Market Commentary: Calm for the Day but Geopolitics Hint at Looming Volatility
The CBOT was solidly in the red on Wednesday while cattle futures regained some of their former strength. Markets had to process multiple headlines at the national/international political level, which led to some mild risk-off trade. Mostly, however, for grains, the looming WASDE dominated the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.17/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.8/short ton, down $3.2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 1–5 September 2025 Bearish sentiments prevailed across both the European and Asian parts of Russia. The market is under pressure as stocks and yields are better than expected especially in Volga Valley and Black Soil region. Siberia and Urals harvesting campaign is...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The U.S. is not the only country suffering from tight cattle supplies and rising beef values, as the EU is battling the same problem. Across the EU, there is a shortage of slaughter cattle that continues to intensify and drive prices higher. Germany is seeing slightly greate...
Market Commentary: A Tale of Two Markets: Grains Consolidate While Cattle Correction Accelerates
Note: WPI’s data supplier for futures pricing and data experienced a significant outage on Tuesday, 9 September. All prices/quotes in this article are believed to be correct, but clients should double-check values before acting on any information contained herein. The ag markets sho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $289/short ton, up $3.4 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan flooding reportedly damaged as much as 30 percent of wheat stocks in some areas, especially eastern Punjab. Local wheat prices are said to be up by 40 percent with further increases expected. Trade reports say that due to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, up $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Technical Momentum Shifts at Odds with Fundamentals
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with technical factors driving short covering and some cautious fresh long buying. There wasn’t much from a fundamental standpoint to drive the move, but the technical picture is firming for most commodities. Corn saw substantial follow-through...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Last week’s rainfall covered much of Argentina’s western wheat-growing region, improving prospects for cereals there. Still, 27.3 percent of the area now shows excess water — up from 7 percent the prior week — mainly in the east and south, where fungal diseas...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders breaking a three-week trend of net short covering in the ag space as managed money traders expanded their almost-neutral positions. The expansion of short holdings came primarily from selling across the three soy complex contracts and from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1925/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.27/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284/short ton, up $0.3 fro...
Market Commentary: Ending on a Sour Note
The weak jobs report sent most economic indices lower, except for gold. The dollar slumped lower despite the increased likelihood of interest rate cuts. Corn, soybeans and some wheat contract teased higher at the start of the session but they couldn’t hold. There was yet another new contr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 22-28, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 313,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 46 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 890,600 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 50 perc...
Market Commentary: Some Rebounds, Some New Contract Lows
Most of the board traded in the red to start today’s trading session. There is too much corn and soybeans and not enough prospective buyers. All three major wheat contracts hit new lows today. Except for corn, major contracts are bearishly trading below major moving averages. Grower group...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.33/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.7/short ton, up $1.2 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.315/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $282.5/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Market Commentary: Macro Malaise and Yield Expectations Turn CBOT Lower
The CBOT was almost entirely lower across the major ag markets on Wednesday with large supply expectations for the 2025 Northern Hemisphere grain and oilseed crops driving the weakness. More crop tours in the U.S. confirm large corn yields and high soybean pod counts/yield potential, while the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 25 – 29 August 2025 Bearish sentiments prevail on the Russian market. Most likely the bottom price levels are near for most of the grains except corn whose season started in September. Bearish trend is a tradition for this part of the season as harvesting is un...
Market Commentary: Court Ruling Rattles Markets; Corn Rallies on Export Demand
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the holiday-shortened trading week with Friday’s ruling that President Trump’s tariffs may be illegal throwing ag and other markets into confusion. The ruling makes unclear the outlook for negotiating further trade deals – or even continuing...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.41/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.8/short ton, down $5.2 fr...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Except for the CBOT futures market, global wheat values were lower last week as larger harvest expectations weighed on market sentiment. With forecasts growing for the 2025/26 crops in Russia, Australia, and Canada, there seems no shortage of wheat supplies this year, which...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia’s cereal production in 2025 has improved due to better rainfall, according to the FAO, with wheat production up by 8.7 percent to 1.25 MMT and barley production up by 26.7 percent to 380,000 MT. Cereals imports for 2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
For the third straight week, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The move came primarily from continued short covering in the soy complex, with modest buying activity in wheat and corn. Funds are now essen...
Market Commentary: Caution About Supplies, Confidence in Demand
Although the soy complex and wheat opened lower, there was confidence in the corn number and by late morning most major contracts were in the green, aided by shorts that were selling at the end of the month to book profits. December HRS printed a new contract low today. There was high volume tr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.545/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $289/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Exceeding Expectations, Perhaps on a Thread
Commodity markets opened mostly in the red but managed a turnaround late in the session for corn, beans and wheat. There was not much fundamentally driving the market. Export sales were solid but there have been no new flash sales reports for several days. By contrast, equity markets opened mix...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 15-21, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 579,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 1,005,600 MT--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.48/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.3/short ton, down $0.9 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Grains while Bulls Dominate Livestock, but will the Trends Hold?
Trade in ag futures was a tale of two cities, with grains sinking into the red while the livestock markets rallied to fresh highs. Grains and oilseeds saw pressure from lackluster technical conditions and, for corn and wheat, expectations of ample domestic and global supplies. Soybeans saw weak...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.2/short ton, down $5.1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 18 – 22 August 2025 The market continues following a bearish trend, mostly related to the peak of the harvest campaign and a surplus of freshly cut grains. The export market continues driving prices inside the country and while European Russia is focused on Azov Sea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, up $2.4 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Lebanon’s 2025 grain crops are expected to be much lower, as much as 25 percent lower for wheat, due to the drought and to local conflict. Rainfall is down by 50 percent in some areas while due to conflict many farmers were...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT as Markets Eye Yields, First Notice Day
Friday’s market fireworks faded a bit on Monday as traders took the opportunity to rest and reassess fundamentals. There were no particularly big news items over the weekend to drive a big swing in markets, which meant that a lull was almost bound to follow last week’s large moves i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.9/short ton, down $0...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced only 1.3 percent this week, reaching 96 percent complete nationwide. The final stretch is always slower, and this year the harvest could extend into September as recent rains further delay fieldwork in Buenos Aires province. Farmer selling has...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space for the second straight week. The move came amid short covering in the soy complex and corn, where technical momentum turned higher. Funds are now essentially neutral acr...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.585/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.5/short ton, down $2.7...
Market Commentary: Market Wiggles on Pro Farmer, Weather and Demand
Yesterday’s grain and oilseed rally extended, for the most part, today. While wheat led the complex upward yesterday, today’s higher volume trading corn and the soy complex gave the thrust in today’s session. Soymeal and the livestock complex took a breather today. The incomin...