Russian Agriculture Enigma Among the many elections this year is Russia’s during 15-17 March. Vladimir Putin will be overwhelmingly elected. He has b...
Articles
Livestock Roundup: Hog and Pork Restructing in China
China is in its holiday season; first was the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year, on 22 December. Next is the Lunar New Year which begins on 10...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.665/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.135/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. ...
2023: A Look Back in Humor
Note, the following is an attempt to summarize 2023’s major developments in ag markets and U.S. and world politics while injecting humor. Obviously,...
Market Commentary: Greenback Pressures Wheat; Crude Rally Lifts Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT saw pressure for the second straight day with a four-day rebound in the U.S. dollar working against grain values. While the rising greenback press...
Trade is Dead, So is Ag; Siloed America
Trade is Dead, So is Ag The U.S. agricultural trade balance has reversed, going from positive to negative. Industry leaders are arguing that the solution i...
Geopolitical Shocks in 2024
Most reviews of the year 2023 characterize the period as tumultuous, largely due to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, coups in Africa driven by gold...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0025/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 December 2023 As of late December, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts grain production at 142 MMT. A week ago...
Market Commentary: 2024 Trending Bearish Grains, Optimistic for Cattle
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened trading week with an old fashion hard open on Tuesday morning with no overnight trade to guide initial investment. T...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.6375/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0675/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close...
2024 Food Industry; Continued Multipolarity; AI Restrictions Emerging
2024 Food Industry Politico says the Biden Administration will crank up its anti-big business efforts for this election year. A long list of anti-trust inv...
2024 Meat Forecast
There are several pundits predicting this is the year that evidences the rise in consumption of plant-based proteins and the end of meat from animals. Thes...
Happy New Year – The Election Cycle has Started
It is 2024, and the upcoming Presidential and Congressional elections will start to cast a shadow over policy debates and timelines in Washington. For cont...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION BRICS membership increased on 1 January 2024 to include Egypt, Iran, Saud...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 15-21, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 276,400 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 14 percent from the previou...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.7125/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.28/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Happy New Year from WPI!
The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forw...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Bearish Day to End Bearish Year
The CBOT was mostly lower to close the 2023 calendar year, a fitting end to a year that saw deeply bearish price action across the grain markets. Since the...
Market Commentary: Wheat Escapes Doldrums; Corn, Soy Complex Drift Lower
Except for wheat, the CBOT and CME’s major ag markets were uniformly lower in a relatively unexciting trading session Thursday. Wheat managed to esca...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.315/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Slow Path to Herd Reduction while Productivity Growth Continues
Last Friday USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the September through November quarter. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 December...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.23/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Mixed with Better Volume and Profit-taking
Wheat had a modest reversal from yesterday’s jump higher on profit-taking, soybeans and feeder cattle continued adding value, while soyoil and pigs c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 December 2023 As of mid-December, the Russian Statistics Agency reports 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.3625/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 So...
Market Commentary: Post Holiday Flush
Traders must have gotten some cash in their Christmas stockings because there was a slight buying mood in the market today. Except for bean oil and pork, m...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was up 3 percent from year ago on Dec 1 to total 12.0 million head in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Placements in feedl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.73/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Slow Day but Notable Reports for Next Week
Trading volumes today were down 40-50 percent in some commodities, but the bottom line was some exiting and losses from the week before an extended holiday...
Cattle on Feed Report: Continued Pressure on Cattle Prices
It was a big day for livestock market reports from USDA with the monthly Cattle on Feed report and the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, both at the closing...
Old President, Old Allegiances
President Biden sided with the steel workers union and will put Nippon Steel’s purchase of US Steel through the “serious scrutiny” of the...
Oilseed Highlights: Improving Weather and Challenging Logistics
The Market Oilseed markets have seen more pressure than support this week due to improved weather forecasts for Brazil and increasingly challenging g...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 8-14, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 322,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 78 percent from the previous...
Market Commentary: Haunted by Transport Hurdles
As expected, commodity futures traded on generally lighter volumes and will continue that way until a new year of trading starts in January. Corn, wheat, a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.125/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed, Hogs and Pigs Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow, along with the December quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The cattle markets are anticipati...
Bitter Problem; Blatant Nationalism
Bitter Problem The U.S. sugar program is an protectionist abomination emanating from a political deal in the 1981 farm bill. Unlike other crops that are su...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Shipping, Export Concerns Mount; Corn Finds New Lows
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure building from increasingly challenging shipping logistics around the world. The situation in...
232 Confusion; Green Border Measures
232 Confusion WTO dispute settlement rulings are arcane, highly legalistic, but sometimes contradictory to the layman’s eye. The latest case is a rul...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs...
Market Commentary: KCBT Wheat Upside Leader in Mixed Day; Livestock Futures Fall Ahead of Reports
Conflicting supply and demand factors resulted in mixed trade at the CBOT once again, but the surprise of the day was KCBT wheat’s 2.2 percent rally...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.7275/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.2275/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&...
EPA Promises Changes to Endangered Species Review of Pesticides
As we reported last week, farmers’ cost of production has been at record levels six consecutive years; that is a good context for the EPA’s lat...
Ag Exports Not the Panacea
According to the FAO agricultural trade index, Africa has experienced the relatively largest jump in the past decade, followed by North and South America...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Food price inflation rates, according to the World Bank, show Lebanon at...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Crush; Grains Dip on Slack Exports
The CBOT was mixed to start the last full trading week of 2023 with the soy complex rallying on the heels of last week’s NOPA crush report. The repor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.77/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.17/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy Updates Argentina’s new government led by Javier Milei has begun and several new measures have been implemented. Despite being unpopular and r...
End of the Year Policy Quick Hits: Farm Bill, SAF, Fertilizer, Government Funding
Farm Bill Little to no progress has been made on the farm bill, souring hopes of finishing in early 2024. The fault line remains funding. Typically, over t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News In its latest crop monitoring bulletin, the EU Commission’s MARS division noted few to no negative impacts on winter crops from t...
Not Walking the Talk; Music Protectionism; North-South Divide
Not Walking the Talk The European Environmental Agency has assessed the EU’s commitments and concludes that the goal of reducing emissions 55 percent...
Food Sovereignty Flipped
The government of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and now the social justice warrior class in the U.S. are framing the impendin...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Slide Sideways; Wheat, Cattle Extend Rallies
Trade at the CBOT was mostly a low-volume affair heading into the weekend and there was a growing sense that, except for wheat and cattle, most of the week...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Policy Shorts
Jones Act: The EU is correctly arguing that the Jones Act, an American law restricting intra-U.S. shipping be restricted to domestically built and operated...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.2925/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: Lumbering Sideways But Above 13
The Market The January soybean contract managed to end the week higher after decent declines but settling at 1315.75/bushel still leaves it below the 100-d...
Fed Crosses Finish Line
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Thursday, indicating that it considers it has crossed the finish line in its effort to rein in inflation...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 1-7, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 1,490,500 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024--a marketing-year high--were up notice...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.7925/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.1575/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Fed Continues to Fuel Recovery
Today’s open followed last night’s close with corn, soybeans, and wheat all higher. The market subsequently dipped but only corn and soyoil fai...
EU Reveals Export Future; Swiss Choose Expensive Food
EU Reveals Export Future The fundamental debate in Geneva between agricultural exporting countries and developing countries is domestic support versus mark...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Demand
According to Kansas State University’s Meat Demand Monitor, the willingness to pay for meat in November versus October is down among five items monit...
Market Commentary: Policy Front and Center for Commodity Trade
Macroeconomic and commodity market policy factors were front and center for the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, following the devaluation of the Argentine...
Wishful Thinking on China Retaliation; Wishful Thinking on NGT’s
Wishful Thinking on China Retaliation The U.S. House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist has...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.795/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0525/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close...
Changes in the Wheat Market
Decades ago, when wheat was king, WPI had many analysts keenly interested in wheat. Since then, corn became king and now soybeans jockey for top honors. Wh...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Pulls Soy Complex Lower; Wheat Rises on Growing Demand
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In con...
Aggies See China Pain; SUR Revival; Meat and Oil
Aggies See China Pain China has been the top market for U.S. agriculture since 2020 and its share in some products is overwhelming. For this reason, a coal...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.255/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s rate of inflation dropped a little in November to 34.6 perc...
Market Commentary: Trend Reversals to Start the Week
The CBOT’s Monday trade saw two notable reversals from the recent week’s trends. The first was the strength in soybean futures, which erased al...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.815/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.095/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close.&nb...
GI’s for EV’s; Policy Roundup
GI’s for EV’s Europe’s leaders’ real concern when meeting with their Chinese counterparts last week was not the growing trade defic...
India’s Rice Squeeze
The New Delhi playbook for staple crops is to offer farmers a generous Minimum Support Price (MSP), donate the extra output to the nation’s poor, and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Policy and Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s trading last week was shortened due to a national holiday on Friday. At the sa...
Farm Financials Going into 2024
USDA’s 30 November farm income forecast shows net farm income at $151.1 billion for CY 2023, a decrease of $31.8 billion, or 17.4 percent, relative t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.3175/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soy Complex Fall as USDA Makes Few Changes; Livestock Rally into Weekend
The December WASDE is not normally a market-moving report, and this year was no exception. The USDA made only mild revisions to U.S. and global grain balan...
Looking at the GDP Revision
Back in October, the initial, or advanced, Q3 GDP report showed the U.S. economy grew 4.9 percent; and on 29 November the GDP estimate was revised up to 5...
Oilseed Highlights: Week Grew Increasingly Darker
South American weather improvement hung over the market all week, and though December's WASDE report reflected a dent imposed on Brazil's soybean crop by d...
Political Risk to Agribusiness
The Biden Administration and others have already shown their animosity toward Big Ag. Heading into 2024 the hate may grow larger. The President’s ree...
Market Commentary: Fewer Bears Ahead of WASDE
Confidence in short positions was slightly challenged today as traders positioned ahead of tomorrow’s USDA December WASDE. January soybeans jumped ba...
Livestock Roundup: China Hog and Pork Situation
CME cattle futures have grabbed the attention in the U.S., but in China, hog futures are the focus. January hog futures on the Dalian exchange are at a new...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. ...
Hobbling AI; Chinese Spin; F2F Setback
Hobbling AI The EU has neared agreement on doing what it does best, regulating. This time its target is artificial intelligence. France and Germany were re...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 24-30, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 356,400 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 43 percent from the previou...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Cattle Find New Contract Lows
The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export s...
NGT Optimism; New Old Threat to Trade
NGT Optimism EU Parliament rapporteur for the Commission’s proposed new policy on new genomic techniques (NGT’s) is Jessica Polfjärd and s...
Smashing Success
Global demand for avocados has been growing at 7 percent per year. Mexico produces 30 percent of the world’s avocados but supplies 45 percent of thos...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.335/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 November–1 December 2023 Russian markets finally broke the bear which has been present almost since the beginning of the ne...
Market Commentary: Second Day of SRW Sales to China Boosts Wheat; Pre-WASDE Consolidation Begins
Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upsid...
Dissecting Volatile Cattle Futures
As Matt Herrington has been covering, Live cattle and feeder cattle futures have been volatile since the day after Thanksgiving – but trending mostly...
EU-Mercosur Deal Smooshed
The multi-year effort to negotiate a trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur appears to have run into too many hurdles on both sides of the Atlantic. F...
Outproducing the Disease
Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) have been trending higher in recent years. The World Health Organization describes the disease as &ld...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.905/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Red Sea and Arabian Sea shipments in transit are being attacked by forces...
Market Commentary: Rains Send Soy Complex Lower; China Sales, Short Covering Extend Wheat Rally
Rains in Brazil and Argentina heavily influenced the CBOT to start the week and sent the entire soy complex sharply lower. The precipitation also weighed o...
Decoupling or Redirected; Take, Don’t Give
Decoupling or Redirected There is much academic debate over whether U.S.- China trade has been decoupled, or merely redirected with Chinese goods diverted...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.205/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. ...
A Look at Sustainable Aviation Fuel
As the 28th United Nations climate summit (COP28) convenes in Dubai, sustainability and climate issues are the theme of the week, making it timely to look...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On 1 December, Bulgaria lifted its import ban on four agricultural products (wheat, corn sunflower seed, and rapeseed) from Ukraine.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving at high speed and advanced 10 percent last week, which put the total harvest above 35 percent of the are...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally, Soy Falls to End Volatile Week; Grain Crushing Report Bullish
The CBOT continued its mid-week trends into the week’s end with corn and wheat futures posting another higher day with short covering and technical,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8475/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0275/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
Policy Quick Hits
Pork Plant Line Speeds USDA extended the New Swine Inspection System (NSIS) faster line speed trial period for 90 days; the program was scheduled to expire...
Oilseed Highlights: Weather Bearish; Crush Crushes It
The Market Improved weather in Brazil took its toll on soybeans this week, taking Chicago prices down 5.75 cents to $13.25/bushel for the January contract...
Tautological Rabbit Hole; Buy Small and Stay Home
Tautological Rabbit Hole The COP28 meeting in Dubai came to an agreement on a loss and damage fund whereby rich countries help poor countries weather the a...
Market Commentary: Exports versus Weather and Crude Oil
It was a mixed day for futures trading with corn and wheat rebounding from early week contract lows but the soy complex sliding lower on a weak petroleum m...
Livestock Roundup: Is Broiler Production Retreating from Black Ink Again?
The broiler sector has been “right-sizing” since Q3 after months of margin pressures reducing placement of broiler chicks. That, along w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 17-23, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 622,800 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previous...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large ga...
Atlantic Risks; Mixed Reviews of Asks; Rural Anarchists
Atlantic Risks EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovkis is a serious and competent politician. He is now signaling that reaching a conceptual deal with the...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.8575/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 November 2023 Russian markets remained quite volatile, however, the Asian area finally stabilized because Kazakhst...
Market Commentary: Oil Rally Pulls Soy Complex Higher; Livestock, Wheat Post Reversals
Tuesday’s ag commodity trade featured several interesting developments, not the least of which was the bullish key reversal in KCBT wheat. All three...
Small Refinery Exemptions Under the RFS Back in the Spotlight
A recurring issue since 2016 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been EPA’s administration of the small refinery exemption (SRE) program. A c...
Green and Brown Collide
Last week’s win in the Netherlands by Gert Wilders was a stunning refutation of the Green Deal. The policy’s former protagonist in the EU Commi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.72/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. J...
Suppliers Look at China
China has just over 18 percent of the world’s population, but its food imports and consumption share of world food supplies varies greatly. Soybeans...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Wadi Poultry, a division of Wadi Group, has seen the purcha...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows to Start the Week
Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, ca...
Rebalancing Global Meat; Unintended Water Consequences
Rebalancing Global Meat The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization will present a plan at next week’s COP28 meeting in Dubai that calls for ric...
Brazil’s Corn at Greater Risk than Soybeans
Analysts have noted the analog years for adverse El Niño impacts in Brazil as 2015/16 and 2020/21. As in those years, Brazil has had limited moistur...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.61/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close.&n...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics and Policy Argentina’s outgoing presidential administration’s first post-election measure was to increase the percentage of fore...
23 Legislative Days, and Many Issues, Left Under Government Funding Extension
Congress returns tomorrow after its Thanksgiving holiday break to face a long list of issues and the time pressurs of finalizing government funding bills...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia has shipped two vessels of wheat to Somalia and Burkina Faso as part of the country’s promise to send free grain to Africa...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 10-16, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 171,800 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 3 percent from the previous...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as do Rains in Brazil; Livestock Futures Find Post-Holiday Selloff
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly lower to end the holiday-shortened week with favorable weather forecasts for Brazil pressuring the grains and oilseeds...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close...
Oilseed Highlights: Playing the Dip
The Market Oilseed values temporarily dipped this week on improved moisture in Brazil. The change is temporary as the 6-15 day outlook calls for a return t...
Major Dairy Defeat; Boomers’ Promise to the Future
Major Dairy Defeat In a major policy defeat for U.S. dairy, a USMCA dispute settlement panel ruled that Canada’s dairy quotas do not limit U.S. acces...
Farm Financials Ending 2023, Entering 2024
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate four times in 2023 for a cumulative rate hike of 100 basis points, though it left rates unchanged in Sept...
Happy Thanksgiving
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 23 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and...
De-Risking and Food
The Biden Administration went through a rapid succession of descriptors for its trade policy toward China before settling on de-risking. It initially calle...
Market Commentary: CBOT Edges Lower in Risk-Off, Pre-Holiday Trade
CBOT grain and oilseed futures were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders reduced risk ahead of Thursday’s market closure and the shortened trading da...
November Cold Storage Report
October 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were down sharply from September and were 6.4 percent below October 2022 as beef, pork, and chicken stocks c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 November 2023 The Russian market remained quite volatile with European Russia bearish and the Asian region bullish...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Climb on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Russian Attacks
Wheat futures were the exception to the CBOT’s trend-following trade on Tuesday, as the market rallied following another round of Russian attacks on...
African Farming; European Farming
African Farming This is said to be the African Century. Over half the world’s population growth to 2050 will come from that region of the world. Yet...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...
Insight into Prop 12 Premiums
Yesterday, USDA’s Ag Marketing Service published the premiums for hogs compliant with California Proposition 12 and Massachusetts Question 3 under th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports for 2023/24 will be lower according to a r...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Overcomes Weak Start to Post Big Gains; Wheat Finds New Lows
The story of the CBOT was the sharply lower opening soybeans and soymeal suffered overnight, thanks to heavy rains in Brazil over the weekend. Those early...
Cultivated versus Uncouth; All or Nothing; Genetic Enforcement
Cultivated versus Uncouth The Italian Chamber of Deputies passed a law banning the sale of cultivated meat. The law will prevent the production and sale of...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
European Market Analysis
Regional News After a rainy winter crop planting season, Europe’s weather looks to finally change to favor fieldwork in the next week. The 7-da...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine Policy Updates Last night, Argentina’s Liberal candidate for president, Javier Milei, was elected as the next President of Argentina and wi...
Cattle on Feed Report: Pressure on Cattle Prices
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday; the total inventory of cattle on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.9 millio...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was up 2 percent on November 1, 2023 to total 11.9 million head. The inventory was 2 percent above November 1, 2022. Placements in feed...
Market Commentary: Wetter Brazil Forecast Sends Corn, Soy Lower; KC Wheat Hits 2-Year Low
Most of this week’s early rally in the grain and oilseed markets was justified by the challenging weather in Brazil. The weather has not only impacte...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...
Inflation Rates Now Flat, but Prices Permanently Up
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at their 1 November meeting; Chairman Powell noted that this was a pause to let the 100-basis point incre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.5075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&...
Oilseed Highlights: Weather Market
The Market Drought in Brazil drove soybean prices higher and now rain in Brazil is driving the market lower. If it turns back dry as expected, then pricing...
Market Commentary: Good Exports but Brazilian Wildcard
The market was in the red across the board at the open and mostly stayed that way. The exceptions being corn and lean hogs. They broke to the upside late m...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.535/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 3-9, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 176,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 50 percent from the previous...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 November at 101.9...
Inclusive Trade; Transatlantic Imbalance
Inclusive Trade Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) is framework embraced by the Democratic Party in the U.S. to remedy past discrimination, particularl...
Market Commentary: Technical Selling, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Soyoil Stocks Hit 9-Year Lows
The CBOT found the dip lower it attempted on Tuesday but that bulls firmly rejected. Amid improved weather forecasts for Brazil and an otherwise quiet news...
DE&I Comes to Trade; Green Deal Equals Deforestation
DE&I Comes to Trade It is busy this week on the U.S. West Coast. Asian leaders are negotiating with their American hosts on APEC, IPEF, and U.S. &ndash...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7075/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.605/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.&n...
Tilting at Windmills
The American Salad Belt is largely on the West Coast and Congressional representatives mostly from that region have introduced legislation (The Specialty C...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 November 2023 Russian markets remained quite volatile last week with the European area stable and bearish but the A...
Market Commentary: Failed Turnaround Tuesday; Inflation Data Emboldens Markets
Bears tried to push the soy complex and corn lower in Tuesday’s early trade as they hoped for a correction following Monday’s rally. That was n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.72/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
Anatomy of the Government Funding Bill
This is a topic WPI has reported on many times in the past couple of weeks, either directly or indirectly: the state of a continuing resolution (CR) to kee...
Regional Favorites
Just as North America both produces and consumes most of the world’s turkey meat (with a small honorable mention to Brazil), it also has a unique fas...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan has begun shipments of grain to the West Bank as part of its 45,00...
Market Commentary: China Buying and Soymeal Demand Sends Soy Complex, Corn Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with sharp rallies in soymeal and soybeans creating spillover buying for the rest of the grain markets. Funds...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...