The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sun...
Articles
CFTC COT Report Analysis
After over a month of delays due to a cyberattack, the weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders' report is back. The attached PDF offers graphical depiction...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.43/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.885/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Head Spinning Fall
The Market Although May soybeans ended a bearish week with a 15.25 cent gain, it could not erase the damage done. In total, the contract lost 48.25 cents f...
Ready to Discuss; Iowa Competitive
Ready to Discuss After previously calling it unsustainable, the Biden Administration has reportedly notified WTO members that it is “ready to discuss...
Higher Octane Fuel Standards for Higher Ethanol Blend Proposed
On 7 March WPI reported: EPA issued a proposed rule on 1 March to provide a waiver of the Clean Air Act that would permit E15 use, through the summer...
Wheat Futures Up 30 Cents on Russia Export Ban Rumors
CBOT and KCBT wheat futures are sharply higher in early morning trade after news broke that Russia may seek to suspend wheat and sunflower oil exports amid...
March Cold Storage Report
February 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were up from January and were 5.8 percent greater than February 2022 as the industry continues to rebuild s...
Market Commentary: Liquidation Week
Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commer...
Uncomfortable Hearing; Real Politik is Complicated
Uncomfortable Hearing Today, USTR Katherine Tai faced the music on the Biden Administration’s trade policy and heard bipartisan disappointment...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.62/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&n...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Pork, Brazilian Beef Exports Resume to China
With Easter retail orders mostly complete, the pork cutout, especially hams, is under pressure. From the beginning of March, the ham primal has dropped 16...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Cash Price Falls Again, Shedding More Than 2 Percent The national average price dropped by RMB .34/kg ($.02/lb.) or nearly 2.2 percent f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 10-16, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 125,600 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 63 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Corn Survives Otherwise Bearish Day; Soy Complex Falls on Weaker Chinese Markets
The CBOT was mostly on the defensive at mid-week with funds and bears remaining in control of futures markets. Wheat was the downside leader with a wave of...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.335/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Kabuki Theater; Miscalculating Farmers; Greed is a Bogeyman
Kabuki Theater Agriculture groups sent a letter to Congress this week asserting that the sector is falling behind competitors due to the lack of new free t...
Thailand Rice Exports
Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic producti...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023 The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soyoil Lead CBOT Lower; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT was red nearly across the board on Tuesday as favorable weather for the U.S. and Europe as well as the renewed Black Sea export corridor agreement...
Miscellaneous Things Being Read
Transatlantic Relations The White House has language on a minerals deal will the EU that will likely be a topic at Thursday’s Senate Finance Committe...
Wheat Can’t Wait
The U.S. agricultural area producing wheat has been declining for many years as better land is switched to more profitable corn and soybeans. Genetic modif...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. ...
Ag Trade Deficit Spurs Interest in Trade Promotion Authority
U.S. ag exports hit a record $196 billion in FY 2022. For FY 2023, however, the latest forecast from USDA in February puts exports at $184.5, down $5.5 bil...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there see...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Sinks Wheat; Markets Brace for Wednesday Fed Meeting
The CBOT started the week with some risk-off trade after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal to extend the Black Sea export corridor agreement over the weeke...
Limiting the Options; Legislators Know Best
Limiting the Options Some policymakers in Brussels have held the view that tight limits on the use of pesticides and fertilizer can succeed if new breeding...
Dreaming of Soybeans
Like many other countries that import soybeans, South Korea is hoping to become more self-sufficient in this oilseed. However, hope runs straight into the...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.33/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0075/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&...
Dutch Farmers’ Party Election
The success of a newly created farmer-based political party in the Netherlands in last week’s elections will establish the party as one of the larges...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is still super boring in Argentina as the market dynamics repeat themselves day after day. There is no farmer selling, millers are buying slowl...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Planting progress and crop conditions for 2023/24 crops in EU are broadly favorable with weather forecast offering comforting outlooks...
Cattle on Feed
March 1 U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 4 percent from 2022 at 11.6 million head for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more. Placements in feedlo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Lack of Export Deal; Soybeans Fall Despite 25-MMT Argy Crop Prediction
Corn was the upside leader overnight with heavy volume kicking off Friday’s trade date. Three days of export sales to China plus rumors (that USDA co...
Cattle on Feed: Placements Drop 7 Percent
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed on feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 March w...
Oilseed Highlights – Down Trend or Bottom?
The Market The May soybean contract experienced its lowest close of 2023 today. At 1476.5, it is now below the 100-day moving average. With a record number...
Testy on U.S. Trade Policy; Trade and GDP; Prospective Plantings
Testy on U.S. Trade Policy USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack testified this week before the Senate Agriculture Committee and while most of the hearing was tame, t...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3425/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.105/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 3-9, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 336,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 26 percent from the pre...
Market Commentary: Dribs and Dabs
On low to average volume, the trading range has tightened. While corn and wheat have been ascendant, today it was corn and soybeans settling higher and whe...
CBDR-RC = New S&DT; Farming Tipping Point; Different Perspectives
CBDR-RC = New S&DT Developing country members of the WTO benefit from Special and Differential Treatment (S&DT), meaning they have far fewer obliga...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3275/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.99/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 March at 96 perce...
Market Commentary: Livestock Markets Collapse on Economic Risks; Grains Grind Higher
Bank liquidity issues and collapses remain at the forefront of the market’s collective mind with investors increasingly looking for safe-haven assets...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices See Their Smallest Increase n Nine Months The Year of the Rabbit kicked off with a sharp reduction in food inflation, as the ave...
Biden to Get Waterboarding; MRL’s Too Flexible
Biden to Get Waterboarding Regulating water quality under the U.S. Clean Water Act has become a political football, changing policies with each change of p...
Pet Food Bonanza
U.S. dog and cat food exports have risen 3500 percent over the past five years, one of the fastest growing categories of trade. It is on a path to rise ove...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.265/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0275/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 March 2023 Grain markets lost all hope for any bullishness due to a global bearish mood, export duties, an...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off SVB Shakiness
Except for the livestock markets, ag futures were broadly higher on Tuesday with investor and trader confidence returning after the weekend shock to the ba...
Eggs Down, but Not Out
Easter is about three weeks away. It is a peak demand for eggs, but production is still lagging. January table-egg production was estimated at 646.9 millio...
ICE and N-P-K
Second thoughts in policymaking are usually better than no thought at all. If it is meant to be, it will. Almost two years ago European politicians agreed...
Borrowing Food Production Capacity
There are many food insecure countries, According to the Economist’s Global Food Security Index most reside in Africa, but there are others around th...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.2075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9625/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, will begin on 23 March in the region. Bus...
Market Commentary: Macroeconomic Shockwaves Create CBOT Jitters
The CBOT’s trade on Monday was initially focused on the weekend failure of two major banks, a fact that sent shockwaves through the macroeconomic mar...
Industrial Farm Policy
China has announced that its state policies to support food production will be increased. Nearly every country has an industrial farm policy. The OECD esti...
Africa Maize Yield Outlook
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) has the lowest average corn yield of any region in the world. Its corn yield is 77 percent lower than that achieved in North Ameri...
Chicken Wing Prices Flying Lower
The NCAA “March Madness” basketball tournament starts this week; that is typically a major driver of demand for chicken wings – with the...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.135/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.845/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s soil moisture maps are, frankly, scary. The moisture profiles are totally dry, and in many cases soils need more than 200...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.1725/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.7925/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Firm to End Punishing Week; Technical Weakness Pushes Cattle, Soyoil Lower
After a bloodbath of a week, the CBOT finally showed some signs of support and higher trade on Friday. Wheat was actually the upside leader (yes, you read...
Oilseed Highlights – One Step Back, Two Forward
The Market Soymeal drove ever higher this week but soybeans and soyoil took it in the shorts, so to speak. Soybeans continue to be pressured by Brazil&rsqu...
Our Complaints Too; Success of Options; IPEF Wisdom; Into the Fire
Our Complaints Too EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was at the White House today to initiate a bilateral agreement with President Biden on join...
President’s Budget Submission and the Farm Bill
Yesterday was a big step toward the farm bill process via the Administration’s submission of the President’s FY 2024 budget proposal, at least...
Market Commentary: Weird, Weird Day
Today’s market opened generally tracking the higher close in the overnight session. It was bolstered by more cuts in expected Argentina production. B...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE and Voluntary COOL
Yesterday’s WASDE had a very bullish outlook for fed cattle prices, raising them again to an annual average of $162/cwt – the previous record a...
Please Don’t Make Me Graduate; Jones Act Burden; Record Presidency
Please Don’t Make Me Graduate Growing up is hard to do and least developed countries (LDC’s) are resisting losing their special trade benefits...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.115/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.6575/bushel, down $0.2175 from yesterday's close.&n...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for Feb 24 - Mar 2, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 266,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 6 percent from the pr...
China In-Country Analysis
Market Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China Set New Record for January Even with China’s economy sputtering and the reversal of the zero COVID-19 policy i...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s r...
WASDE Corn
CORN: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel...
Market Commentary: WASDE Features Deep Cuts to Argy Crops, U.S. Corn Exports
The CBOT was, as it usually is, solely focused on the USDA’s WASDE report that came out at Noon today. Heading into the report, ag futures were mixed...
High Stakes in Mexico Corn Case; Livestock Scale Questions; Digital Competition
High Stakes in Mexico Corn Case AMLO has said he is ready to go to a dispute settlement case to defend his ban on GMO corn from the U.S. He is arguing that...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.255/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.875/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 February – 3 March 2023 Russian grain markets maintained previous price levels and in certain segments were eve...
Market Commentary: Short-Covering Lifts Wheat; Soy Complex Falls on Plunging Crude and Soyoil
Tuesday’s CBOT trade was largely devoted to pre-WASDE report positioning and position evening. Wheat futures staged a mild turn-around and settled a...
Year Round E15 - Eventually from EPA, Sooner from Congress?
EPA issued a proposed rule on 1 March to provide a waiver of the Clean Air Act that would permit E15 use, through the summer months, in eight Midwestern st...
Meat Needs Work, Know Cheese, Not Europe, Can’t Beat ‘em, Join ‘em
Meat Needs Work The U.S. meat industry is feeling good because demand for its product remains strong. Inflation and economic doubts have shoppers economizi...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.98/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Tomato Economics
U.S. domestic farm policy critics like U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) have a point when they note that the Farm Bill encourages the production of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s soybean import estimates have been dropped from 2.5 MMT...
Market Commentary: Red-Hot Meal Market Pulls Soybeans Higher; Funds Retain Bearish Control of Wheat
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with just two full trading days before the March WASDE report. There was a good bit of pre-report positioning that occ...
Good Bets for the Farm Bill
The 2023 farm bill process is under way with both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees having several hearings completed or scheduled. On 16 March,...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.37/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9525/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close.&n...
Policy Shorts
Procedural Action on Mexico: The Biden Administration has formally requested technical consultations with Mexico under the USMCA to discuss the proposed GM...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The weather continues to give no respite for Argentina’s corn crop. The country is experiencing a heat wave with few precedents at a time of rel...
Market Commentary: Bear Scent
This should be the window for U.S. export sales, but it has been strangely quiet. There were rumors of a Chinese purchase this week, but nothing has been c...
Tai’d Down on Trade
The Biden Administration has done the impossible – it has united Congressional Democrats and Republicans on an issue, and not in a good way. It...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – The Market Thaws
The Market Tuesday was a rough day in the market and while the May soyoil contract lost a fraction on the week, both May soybeans and soymeal logged anothe...
It’s the Regulations that Matter
The House Agriculture Committee’s first hearing this year on the 2023 farm bill strayed a bit from the technical jurisdiction of farm bill programs o...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie
It was a mixed day but mostly lower volume (except for soyoil) as the market appears generally comfortable with current values. Even Russia’s charge...
Tooling Up; Ignoring the Elephant; Buffaloes and Cows
Tooling Up Yesterday, USTR issued its annual report for 2022 and the President’s 2023 Trade Policy Agenda. The 354-page document will no doubt be rea...
Livestock Roundup: Policy Proposals Lagging the Cattle Cycle
Since COVID and the bottlenecks it created in livestock slaughter, populism has been the hallmark of agriculture policy debates on Capitol Hill, especially...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 17-23, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 284,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 16 percent from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Bullish Day as Fund Selling Slows; Corn, Cattle Forge Reversals
Tuesday’s market collapse found profit taking and some fresh commercial and long buying interest that pushed futures higher. The corn market saw the...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Domestic Live Hog Cash Price Rebounds by More than 7 Percent The recent procurement of frozen pork for state reserves combined with some warmer w...
AMLO Channels Inner Trump; Trump Stumbles; Industrial Policy Warning
AMLO Channels Inner Trump Thousands of Mexicans protested in the streets against Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s decision to water down t...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3575/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.1/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. M...
Directional Trade Deficit
The Biden Administration halted new trade agreements until it said it could make Americans more competitive with policies like Build Back Better. However,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 - 24 February 2023 Russia had one day off last week which was an Army Day. Although the business week was one day sho...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Join the Selloff; Liquidation Trade Obliterates Technical Support
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday with corn breaking below key technical support points and wheat posting another set of selloff lows. Paris wheat futu...
January Consumer Spending Up, Money Supply Down
The M2 money supply for January decreased for the second consecutive month. M2 is the amount of cash, held by banks, travelers’ checks, savings...
Limits on Trade Blocs; Short Supply Chain BS; Small Farm Solution BS
Limits on Trade Blocks De-friending, reshoring, carbon border measures and other narrow views of global trade may have their limits. The EU’s Sabine...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.055/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to have to devalue its currency again according to Soci...
Market Commentary: Fund Selling Punishes Corn, Wheat; Brazil’s Progress More Influential than Argy Weather
Funds were still aggressive net sellers to start the week and drove wheat and corn futures to new selloff lows. Both markets also received fundamental pres...
China Driving Changes in Brazilian Beef Production
Brazil last week reported a case of atypical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE); it was discovered in a seven-year-old cow in the northern state of Par...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.435/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.1/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Although there has been a change in the weather pattern since the beginning of the year and Argentina has seen more rains, the precipitation was heter...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt’s GASC secured 79 KMT of soybean and sunseed oil in total, of which 27 KMT of sunseed oil was purchased at $1.170/MT CNF an...
Streisand Salvation; WOTUS Cost; The Money Pit
Streisand Salvation Stealing an idea from energy writer Robert Bryce, what if the Green Deal/F2F is inadvertently boosting the prospects for ag chemical co...
Cattle of Feed
USDA reported U.S. Cattle on Feed down 4 percent from year-ago on February 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.93 million head,...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Selloff Continues; Soybeans Try to Stabilize; Cattle on Feed Report Supportive
The CBOT continued its selloff on Friday and wheat and corn futures plunged lower in heavy volume trade. The catalyst for corn’s selloff was, of cour...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 10-16, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 338,800 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 62 percent from th...
Diversity of Scale; Calories versus Micronutrients
Diversity of Scale Tom Vilsack is one of the longest serving secretaries in USDA history. The one-time presidential candidate is a likeable and formidable...
Cattle on Feed: Mostly Neutral
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed on feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 Februar...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.4925/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.2175/bushel, down $0.2875 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights – Drip, Drip, Drip
The Market The trading week was just four session long due to Monday’s holiday but it seemed more bearish than it turned out. March soybeans closed l...
Market Commentary: Delayed Reaction
USDA issued its outlook for 2023 major crops before the market opened this morning but the reaction to it was slow to develop. Perhaps initially because it...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.6025/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.505/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview; FDA Label Guidance on Plant-Based Milk
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 February at 96 pe...
WTO and Inclusion; Putin Boosts Trade; Boohoo, Yoohoo
WTO and Inclusion There is much frustration in Geneva over the policy gridlock at the WTO. The EU has proposed a set of three objectives for the institutio...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Sends CBOT Lower
Except for cattle and soyoil futures the major CBOT/CME ag markets turned red on Wednesday with a combination of surprise weather, technical selling, and a...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Domestic Live Hog Prices See Some Modest Gains A week after bottoming out following the back-to-back holidays, the average price for domestic liv...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.74/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.5/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. ...
Future of World Trade; Inflated Politics
Future of World Trade While U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai characterized the WTO as being on ‘thin ice” for a dispute settlement case...
Equilibration of Food Prices
International trade is supposed to equilibrate prices as the supply of goods or services flow to where they deemed more precious. Hog prices in Europe are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 - 17 February 2023 The Russian domestic grain market was unmistakably bearish. A large crop, increasing export dutie...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex, Corn Rallies on Argy Frosts; Hogs Explode Higher; Wheat Falls on Technical Trade
The CBOT saw strong, active trade to start the holiday-shortened trading week with the soy complex leading the way higher after frosts developed in Argenti...
War Escalation and Food Security; India Courted
War Escalation and Food Security President Joe Biden visited Kyiv yesterday where he accused Russia of trying to starve the world. The U.S. also expressed...
Dissecting the Protein Market
Populist U.S. politicians are criticizing the meat sector and blaming higher prices on agribusiness concentration. The usual target is beef where 85 percen...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.805/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.505/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close. ...
U.S. Dairy Record Exports for Sixth Year – More to Come
U.S. agriculture exports hit a record in 2022 - a total value of $196 billion. However, the situation was more of a mixed bag upon closer inspection. Sever...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Oman Flour Mills (OFM) is reportedly about to receive the first direct fa...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7775/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.655/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...
U.S. President's Day Holiday
The CBOT/CME will be closed on Monday, 20 February 2023 for the U.S. President’s Day holiday. WPI will not issue an Ag Perspectives report on Monday...
Market Commentary: Argy Crop Ratings Worsen; CBOT Chops Sideways into Weekend
The CBOT posted a day of two-sided trade on Friday to end a week of choppy, two-sided trade. With the three-day weekend coming up, few traders were interes...
SNAP Inflation Adjustments and the Farm Bill – Now and a Decade Ago
Spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is likely to cause a major showdown in the farm bill debate, just as it did 10 years ago.&...
Oilseed Highlights – Transition Week
The Market The market is at the seasonal turning point. Brazilian soybean basis has turned negative relative to Chicago. March soymeal hit a contract high...
Warren is Wrong; You Can’t Have Any Pudding
Warren is Wrong U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) excoriated her own Party’s USDA secretary, Tom Vilsack, for failing to stop concentra...
Market Commentary: Exhausting the Angst
Markets trade on fundamentals and right now is the equivalent of being an ebb tide. It is a shift from angst over supply-reducing weather in South America...
Policy Snippets; Diplomatic Differences
Policy Snippets U.S. Agricultural Trade Ambassador Doug McKalip says the goal is sustainability initiatives in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework that d...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.76/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.65/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: USDA’s Long-Term Outlook
USDA released its long-term outlook for 2024 - 2032 this week. No surprise that USDA’s projections show the continued tight situation for cattle thro...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 3-9, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 209,800 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 60 percent from the...
China In-Country Analysis
Food Inflation Food Prices See Biggest Jump in Four Months The average cost of food in China rose by 6.2 percent from a year ago in January, marking the th...
Market Commentary: Dollar Rallies on Retail Sales Numbers, Pressures CBOT Trade
The CBOT turned lower again at mid-week with an unexpectedly strong retail sales report sparking a rally in the U.S. dollar. That, in turn, pressured CBOT...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7625/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.6925/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&...
Split Opinions Farm Bill; Who Lacks Trade Policy?; Spoiling Russia’s Commodity War
Split Opinions Farm Bill There are two sides to any fight in Washington, and it is an inelegant blood sport. Neither side respects the observation of renai...
Oats are In
David McKee at Key International LCC points out the surge in demand for oat milk, which now dominates the creamer used at many coffee shops. Global oat pro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 - 10 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained relatively stable. Feed wheat remains more expensive than...
Market Commentary: CBOT Goes Red for Valentine’s
Red is the traditional color for Valentine’s Day and the CBOT seemed happy to do its part celebrating the holiday. The grain and oilseeds markets wer...
Mexico Ignores Science Question; Bad Idea; False Impression
Mexico Ignores Science Question In response to U.S. Agricultural Trade Ambassador Doug McKalip’s throwing down the gauntlet and demanding by today th...
Inflation Up – and Down – Depending on the Benchmark
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Lab...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8225/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.86/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Coming Beef Crisis
Global cattle production has basically been running steady. Fluctuating based on climate, health, supply and demand, and the gestation cycle. The U.S. is t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Punjab province is reportedly stopping permanently the w...
Market Commentary: Bullish Start for the Week
The CBOT largely continued Friday’s Russia-induced rally with help from another weekend of terrible weather for crops in Argentina. Soybeans and soym...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.85/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.92/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar...
Tee Up Warnings; Takes One to Know One; Nutrition and Meat
Tee Up Warnings Learning that some Progressives in Congress want to amend crop insurance and increase conservation requirements, Ranking Member on the Sena...
Show Me the Farm Bill Money
On Wednesday of this week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) will release its “score” of the farm bill baseline. That is the cost projectio...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The renewal of the Ukraine export corridor deal is seen as increasingly in jeopardy as rhetoric and military resource offers from Weste...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Many early-crop corn fields have been heavily impacted by drought and yields will be very low. Other fields have been burned or chopped early for anim...
How Sweet It Isn't
Global surplus sugar stocks are at their lowest since 2010/11 and futures prices are at their highest level in six years. Yet global import demand continue...
Market Commentary: Russian Missiles Spook CBOT; Wheat Posts Bullish Day
On Friday, Russia did what the February WASDE could not, excite the grain markets. Early Friday, a Russian missile(s) headed towards Romania (a NATO countr...
Valentine Kiss; Farm Bill Implications; Trade as a Weapon
Valentines Kiss USTR Chief Agriculture Negotiator Doug McKalip gave his counterparts until 14 February to respond to the U.S. demand for answers to its que...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.805/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.86/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Ending on a High Note
The Market The trading week started a little down in the dumps, but the finish ensured gains across the soybean complex. There was a lot of support: ...
Eggs: Bring Back the Breakers
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has had a major impact on the price of eggs. The first detection in a commercial laying flock was in February 2022...
Market Commentary: Post-WASDE Drip
There was higher volume trading corn, soybeans, and soymeal, but resulting in just a half penny change in soybeans. There was low volume trading in Februar...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Decline, Fears of New Variants Wane One particular positive as China’s lengthy New Year’s and Lantern F...
Biden’s Error in Commodity Strategy; Chasing Sri Lanka
Biden’s Error in Commodity Strategy The U.S. is the world’s largest oil and gas producing nation. Russia is a close number two. But note the fo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7075/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5725/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE Ups Its Forecast Record 2023 Cattle Price
Yesterday’s WASDE increased its beef production forecast slightly over January’s estimate based on Q1 slaughter, but for Q2 the slaughter rate...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 27 – February 2, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 131,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 4...