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Technical Views - Soyoil Leads the Day

SPREADS May crush trades firmer to 64.43c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 37.41%.  July/Nov bean inverses firm again up to 1.70 3/4c from 1.67c, wh...

AM Outlook - Soy Higher; Grains Drop

GOOD MORNING, Grains continue to weaken vs. the soy complex as the soyoil market remains higher on technical and fundamental merit.   Traders con...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 219,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 31 percent from the previous week, but down 51 percent from the prior 4-week avera...

Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates Amid Argentine Dryness, Slow Export News

The CBOT was mostly lower in decidedly consolidative trade on Wednesday. Ag futures seem to be bumping up against key support levels where end-users are ex...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.56/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...

Inequivalent, Protectionist; Bulls and Pandemics

Inequivalent, Protectionist In 2012, the U.S. and EU established an agreement asserting that each other’s organic standards were substantially equiva...

China In-Country Analysis

Note to Readers Coronavirus Hits Home Despite our best efforts to practice social distancing and good hygiene, including the wearing of masks in public, ou...

Sourcing Changes; Prices Attractive

U.S. export sales are seasonally slowing, which is impacting CBOT futures. American farmers have nonetheless had a good run. The value of the dollar is up...

PM Post - Breaking Not Broken

THE OPEN May beans:  11 lower May meal:  5.00 lower May soyoil:  22 lower May corn:  7 1/2 lower May wheat:  11 1/4 lower Prices o...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 February 2021 Russian domestic grain prices followed the pattern of the previous week. Meanwhile, export milling wheat average...

Technical Views - Lower Side

SPREADS May crush continues to weaken trading down to 62.64c/bu while oilshare strengthens again to 37.26%.   July/Nov beans trades higher from 1...

AM Outlook - Swirl of Crops and Weather

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to identify trading ranges that make sense heading into the March 9 WASDE.  For the day, most of the markets are lower w...

WPI's Daily Notifier

WPI’s daily notifier of available new analysis reports may get rejected by some email programs. To avoid this problem, please add the notifier to you...

Real WTO Problem; Beggars’ Rights; Political Horse-trading

Real WTO Problem The President’s 2021 Trade Agenda and 2020 Annual Report highlights the trade protectionism in India and efforts to change New Delhi...

Ethanol Corn Use and Outlook

USDA released the January Grain Crushings report yesterday; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 11 percent from January 2020, and down 6 percent from...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.6625/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Own, Price or Cover

THE OPEN May beans:  1 lower May meal:  .80 lower May soyoil:  8 higher May corn:  1/2 lower May weather:  8 1/2 higher The market...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Wheat farmers in parts of Pakistan are complaining that government set wheat prices are going...

AM Outlook - Mixed All Over

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed, higher wheat and soyoil, in what appears to be trading ranges from the top.  The higher equities market seemed to be t...

Technical Views - Disparate Directions

SPREADS May crush trades to 69.25c/bu while oilshare trades to 37.37%.  July/Nov beans trades down to 1.58c from 1.64c inverse, while May/July firms t...

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Under Fund Liquidation, KCBT Deliveries

The CBOT started higher overnight with Argentine dryness supporting trade. The day session saw prices try to continue the rally, only to run into heavy fun...

Final Reconciliation Bill: Derecho Relief and Seafood Out

As we reported on 12 February, the House Agriculture Committee passed its portion of the budget reconciliation bill to conform with the FY 2022 budget reso...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.5025/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.&n...

Dekulakization

There is a quasi-religion that believes Big Ag is bad and small farms are better, but economics is a system and economies of scale exists as a principle re...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe is facing a favorable weather forecast for crop development and field work over the next two weeks. Temperatures will be near no...

PM Post - Reversal and Profit-taking

THE OPEN May beans:  16 higher May meal:  5.70 higher May soyoil:  24 higher May corn:  1 lower May wheat:  3 higher The markets o...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat  Argentina’s wheat markets traded a pattern similar to the prior week’s, with small movement in the FAS and FOB markets. Brazilian m...

AM Outlook - Gapping Higher

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher this morning as we begin a new month.  The Commitment-of-Traders report finds that funds did not do much adjusting to...

Technical Views - Macro Support

SPREADS May crush trades to 71c/bu while oilshare trades strongly back over 37.0% to close at 37.10%.   July/Nov bean inverse trades from 1.73 1/...

Folly of Anti-Big; Meating the Hurdles

Folly of Anti-Big A Washington Insider report states that a study by the Environmental Working Group (EWG) reveals that the Trump administration ‘aim...

COOL Front Moving In

Just as the cattle industry is recovering from the recent winter storms in the Southern Plains and cold weather in the Northern Plains, R-CALF is calling f...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

PM Post - Seasonals, OI, Old/New Crop, Etc.

THE OPEN May beans: 16 lower May meal:  5.40 lower May soyoil:  58 lower May corn:  6 lower May wheat:  9 1/4 lower Prices opened as ex...

Technical Views - Watch Carefully

SPREADS May crush trades to 70c/bu while oilshare trades to 36.93%.  Inverses are weaker with the sell-off with July/Nov beans trading down to 1.58c f...

AM Outlook - Testing Support Levels

GOOD MORNING, The markets are lower across the board on first notice day.  Traders should be out of long March futures heading into delivery.  &n...

Ag Review - February 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at policy possibilities in the year a...

Market Commentary: Big Volume Whiplash

All was well until a weak export sales report and improved prospects for South American rains triggered a get out quick mentality. Soybeans had edged up to...

Livestock Round Up: Broiler Feeding Margins

Total broiler production in 2020 was 44.57 billion pounds, up 1.5 percent over 2019 despite the COVID interruptions to slaughter facilities. This is the 18...

China In-Country Analysis: Delayed

WPI’s weekly China In-Country analysis report is delayed. Thanks for your patience and understanding. If you have any questions or comments, please f...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.4975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.7575/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close...

PM Post - Good Day to Cover Shorts, Price, or Go Long

THE OPEN May beans:  11 lower May meal:  4.00 lower May soyoil:  23 lower  May corn:  12 lower May wheat:  11 lower The marke...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 167,700 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down 58 percent from the previous week and 67 percent from the...

Technical Views - Down Cycle

SPREADS May crush trades to 61c/bu while oil share trades up to 37.17%.  July/Nov bean inverse trades firmer from 1.67 1/2c up to 1.81 3/4c, while May...

AM Outlook - Reverses on Profit-taking

GOOD MORNING, Prices were higher across the board, but after the export sales report a round of profit-taking pushed most into the red for a reversal close...

Social Engineering Trade; South Wins; Careful with Boasts

Social Engineering Trade International trade brings economic benefits and thus various interests have been trying to tap its values for many years. These i...

China In-Country Analysis: Delayed

WPI’s weekly China In-Country analysis report will be delayed until tomorrow. Thanks for your patience and understanding. If you have any questions o...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.855/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilshare Fluctuations

Soyoil prices again pushed higher than soymeal today, pushing the oilshare of product value ever higher (approx. 36.85 percent). The price difference canno...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 February 2021 Prices in the Russian domestic grain market continued to decrease because of the export duty. One week ago mainl...

PM Post - Markets Follow Vegoil

THE OPEN May beans: 15 higher May meal:  5.40 higher May soyoil:  50 higher May corn:  4 higher May wheat:  6 1/2 higher The markets op...

February Cold Storage Report

U.S. red meat and poultry stocks continue to trend below year-ago levels, driven largely by significant decreases in pork stocks. Pork stocks remain except...

AM Outlook - Weather/Demand Pushing Higher

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher after yesterday's strong performances.  Funds added length to their already long positions yesterday, buying 2000 whea...

Technical Views - Upside Channels

SPREADS May crush trades to new lows at 61c/bu while oilshare trades to new highs at 36.10%.  July/Dec corn trades from 72c to 73 3/4c, while May/July...

Analyzing Appointees; Slow Learners; Innovative Industry

Analyzing Appointees Foreign governments are not only scrutinizing the statements of President Biden, but they also investigate the backgrounds and biases...

Grain Glitch Tax Issue Making Its Way Back to Congress

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act created what was known as the “grain glitch” through the creation of the new Section 199A deduction. That provis...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5375/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.7025/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China: Corn, Soy, Meat Outlook

China has a four-step plan for improving its corn production:  GMO seeds  Improved soil quality Increasing the scale of farm operations, an...

PM Post - Some Profit-taking but Bullish

THE OPEN May beans:  22 higher May meal:  4.40 higher May soyoil:  72 higher May corn:  4 higher May wheat:  3 1/2 lower The marke...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Karachi port says that it has handled 2.5 MMT of imported wheat in the last four m...

Technical Views - Only Wheat Lower

SPREADS May crush trades down to 59c/bu, while oilshare firms to 35.91%.  Spreads recover with July/Dec corn trading from 70 1/4c up to 74 1/4c, and M...

AM Outlook - Money and Business

GOOD MORNING,  Prices climbed higher in the night session though wheat was mixed.  The extreme cold weather sent wheat prices higher last week, w...

EPA Adopting 10th District Ruling on SREs

The U.S. EPA announced a major change in the agency’s perspective on granting small refinery exemptions (SREs) under the renewable fuel standard. In...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.51/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.6975/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. ...

No. 1; Cost of Caring; Un-noble Gases

No. 1 Nothing says important better than calling something “The No. 1 document,” but China’s plan for agricultural success remains underm...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s new export tax scheme has, according to WPI sources, effectively stopped sales for the spring, and particularly new crop...

PM Post - Positioning Month

THE OPEN May beans:  2 1/2 higher May meal:  1.20 higher May soyoil:  5 higher May corn:  5 higher May wheat:  5 1/2 higher Prices...

Fake Cotton

Cotton prices have rallied 35 percent since September as it tries to keep pace with corn and soybeans in the battle for acres this spring. Unlike dryland w...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Winter Crops In a few months, farmers will start planting the winter crops. That means they are deciding whether to plant wheat or barley as a second crop...

Technical Views - Oil Driven

SPREADS May crush trades lower to 63c/bu while oilshare trades up to 35.67%.   March/May beans traded into a 2 1/4c to 3 1/4c carry, the lowest l...

AM Outlook - Correction Coming

GOOD MORNING, New contract highs were placed in May soyoil, May canola, and Nov beans.   The bean spread inverse leaks lower, while nearby corn s...

Cattle on Feed

• United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head - totaled 12.1 million. (This is the second highest February 1 inv...

Transatlantic – It’s Complicated

It is a busy week for transatlantic relations as bilateral discussions occurred via both the G-7 and the Munich Security Conference. Both the U.S. and EU a...

Cattle on Feed Inventory as Expected

USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today. The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 12.1 million head, up from Feb...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.4275/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.555/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Argentine Production Outlook

The protests by farmers and supply chain workers have settled down but now the Argentine government is going after agribusinesses. It accuses the industry...

PM Post - Awaiting Sunday Weather Forecast

THE OPEN beans:  7 higher meal:  1.50 higher soyoil:  41 higher corn: 2 1/2 higher wheat:  2 lower The markets opened as called with th...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 399,100 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average &...

AM Outlook - Weather Amid Tight Outlook

GOOD MORNING, Prices were lower at the beginning of the PM session on further fund selling based on falling volumes and technical downside follow-through,...

Technical Views - Upswing Side

SPREADS May crush trades to 69c/bu while oilshare trades back over 35.0% to 35.36%.  Corn spreads are slightly weaker with the July/Dec inverse tradin...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.4775/bushel.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.64/bushel.  Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $13.7275/bushel.  Mar 21 Soymeal clos...

Market Commentary: Flimflam Day

These are lower volume sessions with dropping open interest, indicating the shine is off on the bull market but fundamentals remain firm. The combination o...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 Februar...

PM Post - Weaker But Still Rangebound

THE OPEN May beans: 2 lower May meal:  2.90 lower May soyoil:  8 higher May corn:  1 3/4 lower May wheat:  5 1/2 higher The markets ope...

Technical Views - Wheat Returns

SPREADS May crush trades to 70.22c/bu while oilshare trades back below 35.0% to 34.85% in corrective mode, and on weaker palm and soyoil prices.  Inve...

AM Outlook - Corrections

GOOD MORNING, Funds are long, it's dry in Argentina, China is back from holiday, and the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum starts this morning.  The For...

Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Spread Trade Lifts Soymeal

The CBOT ended mostly lower as traders reversed yesterday’s pricing action. Wheat found ample sellers at the morning’s open as overnight weakne...

Updated Telegram; Farm Labor Boost

Updated Telegram Fifty-eight governments recently signed the Canadian initiated, “Declaration Against Arbitrary Arrests.” While broadly directe...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.44/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Cultural The Year of the Ox Arrives With China’s Luna New Year’s Eve occurring last Thursday, the year of the rat came to a close and the year...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 9-12 February 2021 Russian domestic grain prices decreased differently depending on when the export duty was/is going to be introduc...

PM Post - Technical Selling

THE OPEN May beans:  4 3/4 lower May meal:  2.10 lower May soyoil:  20 lower May corn:  4 1/4 lower May wheat:  12 lower The marke...

Beyond the Soybean-Corn Ratio

Energy costs are on the rise as winter weather freezes out production, but policy constructs are likely to lengthen the dynamic. The dominant political for...

AM Outlook - Between Weather and Plantings

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower with the last few hours of trade becoming more defensive, though soyoil posts another new contract high at the beginning of...

Technical Views - Weaker Start

SPREADS May crush trades to 71c/bu while oilshare trades over 35.0% to 35.21%.  July/Dec corn trades from 79 1/4c to 84 1/2c, while May/July trades fr...

Siding with the Elephants; S&DT Trap; No Effluence

Siding with the Elephants Newly installed WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala may come from a developing country but she knows her organization’...

Will Big Plans Alter Farm Bill Schedule?

Now that the ag portion of the budget reconciliation bill has passed, there are still some big plans and major new initiatives planned by the Agriculture C...

Wheat Volatility

ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5225/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.575/bushel, up $0.2075 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Solid Inverses

THE OPEN May beans: 13 higher May meal:  1.40 higher May soyoil:  87 higher May corn:  4.00 higher May wheat:  9 higher The markets ope...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Regional buyers/importers of wheat continue to watch the Russia situation very closely. As ca...

Technical Views - Risk-on Day

SPREADS May crush trades to 68c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 34.92%.  Spreads are firmer with July/Dec corn trading from 77 3/4c up to 82c inver...

AM Outlook - Bull is Back Snorting

GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer this morning on weather, constructive chart price action, higher markets elsewhere, tenders, export restrictions, and harve...

President's Day Holiday

The CBOT/CME will be closed on Monday, 15 February 2021 for the U.S. President’s Day holiday. WPI will not issue an Ag Perspectives report on Monday...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.3875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.3675/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Transatlantic Dance; Return of That 70’s Show

Transatlantic Dance Brussels and Washington are beginning to work together again. This week the EU acknowledged that America’s concern with the WTO&r...

Challenge of Reducing Chemicals

Reducing the chemical load in agriculture can be done, it is already being done to some degree, and it will be increasingly in the future. The use of crop...

PM Post - Trend Weakened, Not Failed

THE OPEN May beans:  5 higher May meal:  .80 lower May soyoil:  34 higher May corn:  1 higher May wheat:  3 higher Prices opened a...

AM Outlook - Mixed in Range

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with corn gaining on wheat, and soyoil gaining on meal.  March beans build on gains.  We are still in demand marke...

Technical Views - Modest Day

SPREADS May crush trades to 67c/bu, while oilshare is 34.65%.  July/Dec corn trades from 74 3/4c inverse to 78c, while May/July trades down to 11 1/2c...

Market Commentary: Bottomed Out

Over-bought is over and so is over-sold. The lows in the overnight session set up the day for mostly a recovery trade. Today’s bounce in corn and the...

30,000 Feet; Conflicting Demands Galore

30,000 Feet EU Council President Charles Michel told the Atlantic Council this week that if Europe and the U.S. do not solve the bilateral fight over aircr...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.335/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 591,000 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 50 percent from the prior 4-week averag...

PM Post - Price Rebound

THE OPEN May beans:  12 higher May meal:  4.00 higher May soyoil:  48 higher May corn:  3 3/4 higher May wheat:  5 3/4 higher The...

Technical Views - Reversals

SPREADS May crush trades higher to 70c /bu while oilshare trades at a steady to firm 34.81%.   Inverses find some firmness, with July/Dec corn tr...

AM Outlook - Bounce off the Bottom

GOOD MORNING,  Prices were lower in the early part of the night session but were able to recover and post higher trades for most of the markets. ...

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Follow-through Selling, Position Liquidation

The CBOT opened weaker overnight with funds taking profits following a moderately bearish WASDE yesterday and a key reversal in corn futures. That selling...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.2175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.355/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Differing Methods, Differing Outcomes

China’s corn carryover has been a mystery for many years and is ongoing due to Beijing viewing such information as protected by national security. No...

Unsustainable Sustainability; Pretend System Crisis

      Unsustainable Sustainability Agricultural producers are readying for the convening of the UN’s Food System Summit later this yea...

PM Post - Targets Head Lower

THE OPEN March beans:  17 lower March meal:  8.10 lower March soyoil:  48 lower March corn:  14 lower March wheat:  12 1/2 lower T...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 February 2021 Prices generally decreased in the Russian domestic grain market, more so for wheat (under the influence of the exp...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Prices Up Year-On-Year by 1.6 Percent in January The cost of food rose at a faster rate in January than in December when it ticked up b...

AM Outlook - Prices Peaked?

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower after a disappointing USDA Feb. report that did not deliver the bullish information as expected given fund length.  As...

Technical Views - Lower on Report

SPREADS May crush trades to 67c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.62%.  Corn spreads continue to weaken post Feb. report with July/Dec trading down to 79...

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: The soybean oil price forecast is raised 1.5 cents to 40.0 cents per pound...

WASDE Soymeal

SOYMEAL: The soybean meal price is forecast at $400.00 per short ton, up 10 dollars.  ...

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS: Soybean exports are projected at 2.25 billion bushels, up 20 million from last month reflecting record marketing-year exports through January and...

WASDE Corn

CORN: U.S. corn ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels from last month.  The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents...

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  supply and demand outlook for 2020/21 is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is raised $0.15 per bushel to $5.00. Projected 2020/...

WASDE Livestock

Today’s WASDE raised the projected estimate for red meat production by 0.9 percent over the January estimate and broiler production up just slightly...

USMCA Impacts

The U.S. – Mexico – Canada Agreement went into effect on 2 July 2020 and so it is too early to understand its impacts, but it continues to be p...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5625/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&...

PM Post - Watch the Close

THE OPEN March beans: 11 higher March meal:  3.10 higher March soyoil:  43 higher March corn:  1 3/4 higher March wheat:  5 lower The m...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Sri Lanka has decided to lease underutilized land to investors for one year in the expectatio...

AM Outlook - Firm into the Report

GOOD MORNING, The Feb. WASDE will be released at 11:00 central time.  Typically, it is not a trend changer, but given implied tighter carry-out number...

Technical Views - Subject to Change

SPREADS May cush trades to 66c/bu while oilshare trades up to 34.18%.  Spreads are strong with July/Dec corn inverting to 93 1/2c from 90c, while May/...

Sustainability Standards Setting; Addressing China

Sustainability Standards Setting There has been concern that addressing climate change and pursuing sustainability becomes a conduit for protectionism. Alr...

Ag Perspectives on Budget Reconciliation Bill

On 5 February, the Senate passed its budget resolution by a vote of 51 to 50, with Vice President Harris casting the tie breaking vote. The Budget resoluti...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.6375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.5575/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Climate Change Impacts

Agricultural trade is said to be the global movement of water, since crops generally move where water is plentiful to where it is less available. Since it...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomic Trends The Argentine economy is still not doing well. Poverty is increasing and there are multiple exchange rates with a 100 percent spread b...

PM Post - As Called

THE OPEN March beans: 8 higher March meal:  .80 higher March soyoil:  41 higher March corn:  4 higher March wheat:  8 3/4 higher Prices...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Cold temperatures are forecast for most of western and all of eastern Europe and Ukraine this week while southern Russia sees a slightl...

Technical Views - Upswing Day

SPREADS May crush trades to 65c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 34.18%.  Spreads firm back up with July/Dec corn trading to an 88 1/4c inverse high...

AM Outlook - Firmer Ahead of the Report

GOOD MORNING, Prices started the night session cautiously higher and have rallied further the last 15 minutes into the close on fund buying and better tech...

Disparate Diplomatic Policy

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) seeks to normalize relations with Cuba after the Trump Administration distanced itself from the...

Mexican Corn Gamble

U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico have been growing and there is a trade deficit; Mexico’s agricultural imports from the U.S. are stagnant at bes...

New Senate Agriculture Committee

There are five new members of the Senate Ag Committee. Given the 50/50 split in the Senate, there will be an even split on the Committee, 11 Democrats and...

WPI February 2021 S&D Estimates

The 2020/21 crop year has been nothing if not interesting and heavy on forecast revisions from every analytical firm. The presence of La Nina in the Pacifi...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.4125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nb...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

 The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity...

PM Post - Still Hanging Close to Highs

THE OPEN March beans:  5 higher Mach meal:  1.00 higher March sooil:  6 higher March corn:  3/4 lower March wheat:  6 higher Price...

AM Outlook - Defining Value Ranges

GOOD MORNING, The markets put in a fairly subdued trade in the PM session as we head into the February 9 WASDE next week.  Some feel that the USDA may...

Technical Views - Prices are Working

SPREADS May crush trades to 63c/bu while oilshare is 33.80%.  Spreads are steady with July/Dec corn inverse trading to 86 1/4c from 83c and May/July a...

Market Commentary: Chop Shop

The market was called mixed at the open, and it followed suit. There is rising open interest, some rising prices, but volume was unremarkable except in whe...

Livestock Roundup: Heavy Slaughter Weights

The January WASDE report lowered previous forecasts for 2021 beef production based on lower expected carcass weights. That report also projected lower weig...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.375/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...

Beating GI’s with EI’s; Hard to Beat Meat; Food Irony

Beating GI’s with EI’s Robert Bonnie is the new senior advisor for climate at USDA and his description of the agency’s approach to farmer...

PM Post - Split Decision with Profit-taking

THE OPEN March beans:  3 1/2 higher March meal:  .40 lower March soyoil:  23 higher March corn:  1 1/4 higher March wheat:  5 lowe...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 643,100 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 69 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average...

AM Outlook - Stabilizing

GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to trade in defined ranges, with an overwhelming nod to chart stabilization yesterday.   Corn trades to new co...

Technical Views - Strong Except Soft Wheat

SPREADS May crush trades 63.20c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.61% which seems to find some market stabilization.  Spreads are also firmer with July/D...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.52/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.4825/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  M...

Transatlantic Deal – Not; Listen to Utes; Wise Perceptions

Transatlantic Deal - Not The EU is making the ‘generous’ offer to drop its $4 billion trade retaliation against Boeing if the U.S. will drop it...

Historical Migration Economics

The FAO is set to release 2020 data on land clearing in Brazil but important to understanding the dynamic is its economics. University of Michigan economis...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Live Hog Supply Rises as New Year Holiday Approaches With the New Year’s celebrations set to kick-off a week from this Friday...

PM Post - Pre-Report Chop

THE OPEN March beans:  4 higher March meal:  2.50 higher March soyoil:  41 lower March corn:  1 3/4 lower March wheat:  9 lower Th...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 25-29 January 2021 Prices generally decreased in the Russian domestic grain market. This trend was expected as 15 February, the date...

AM Outlook - Sideways on Lower Resistance

GOOD MORNING, Prices spent the opening hours in the red with soyoil futures leading the way in terms of market weakness.   Soyoil followed a shar...

Technical Views - Mixed on Haggling

SPREADS May crush falls to 63.46c/bu while oilshare falls to 33.58%.  Inverses are weaker with May/July corn trading to 10 1/4c from 11 1/2c, and July...

Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates, Hogs Rally on Virus Concerns

The CBOT seemed to enter a consolidation/congestion phase on Tuesday as traders are looking forward to next week’s February WASDE. Many are looking f...

The Dairy Pickle

The largest U.S. dairy organization asked the Trump Administration to challenge Canada under the USMCA’s dispute settlement process for failing to ab...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.4475/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&...

Vilsack Drives a 2006 Ford Focus

USDA Secretary-designate Tom Vilsack was approved by the Senate Agriculture Committee today by a unanimous voice vote; his confirmation will soon move to t...

PM Post - Major Support at Range Lows

THE OPEN March beans:  22 lower March meal:  6.60 lower March soyoil:  60 lower March corn:  6 1/2 lower March wheat:  7 1/2 lower...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Cosco Shipping Ports bought a 40 percent inte...

Technical Views - Sideways Lower

SPREADS May crush trades to 66.32c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.0%.   Spreads leak lower with July/Dec corn inverse trading down to 85 1/2c fro...

AM Outlook - Headed Lower

GOOD MORNING, The markets started the evening session on a mixed note as they head into trading ranges off contract highs, but have all turned lower into t...

Johnny One Note Critics; Reduced Pressure on Big Ag

Johnny One Note Critics Populist food critic Mark Bittman is out with a new book, but it is filled with the same old dribble. This time he focuses heavily...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat January saw improvements in logistics and trucks arriving to upriver ports so the vessel lineup ended slightly above December at 1.5 MMT. South ports...

Electric Vehicles, Political Distrust and Ethanol Demand

Last week, General Motors announced that in an effort to lower its emissions its goal will be to produce 40 percent of its car and light duty vehicles as e...

India Substitutes Cess for Duty

The WTO just completed its trade policy review of India and it affirmed what is already known by that nation’s trading partners…India continue...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Generally favorable weather conditions persist across Europe with average precipitation for most of the continent. Last week’s te...

PM Post - Staying in the Lane

THE OPEN March beans: 10 lower March meal:  4.20 lower March soyoil:  25 lower March corn:  1 lower March wheat:  6 lower The markets o...

AM Outlook - Mixed with Beans Defensive

GOOD MORNING, The markets are mixed this morning, though corn posted a new contract high during the night session.  Corn had an outside week, reversin...

Technical Views - Corn Bulls

SPREADS May crush trades to 59c/bu while oilshare trades below 34.0% to 33.91%.  Corn inverses remain strong with March/May trading up to 14 1/4c, new...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.63/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close.  Mar...

Market Commentary: Record-Large Corn Sale to China Lifts CBOT to Contract Highs

The last trading day of January saw a continuation of the story that sparked the 2020/21 bull market: Chinese buying. News of a massive corn sale to China...

Freeze and Review of CFAP Funds

Yesterday the USDA announced that it has, suspended the processing and payments under the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program - Additional Assistance and h...

NBT = GMO; Gamestop Food System; Data is Food; Risky Question

NBT = GMO Some of the same political leaders that oppose GMO’s are saying that New Breeding Techniques (NBT’s) like CRISPR are not novel. They...

Global Surpluses and Deficits

Price is the most efficient signal to producers on whether to grow or reduce output of a commodity. However, price signals become distorted in agriculture...

PM Post - Wide Trading Ranges

THE OPEN March beans:  12 higher March meal:  .30 lower March soyoil; 63 higher March corn:  13 higher March wheat: 8 1/2 higher The markets...

Technical Views - Mostly Firm

SPREADS May crush trades to 63.11c/bu, while oilshare trades to 34.33%.   THe corn inverses post new contract highs with July/Dec at 93 3/4c and...

AM Outlook - Mixed on Profit-taking/Pricing

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed as we come to the month's end with profit-taking on one end and commercial pricing activity on breaks of size.  Oilshar...

Summary of Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 380,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 15 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.&nb...

Market Commentary: Huge Corn Buys

The market was called higher except for soymeal and that was the start to the day, but it only took a few minutes before it turned much more decidedly mixe...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.345/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.47/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. ...

Trade Agreement Planning; Sustainable Sustainability

Trade Agreement Planning The Biden Administration has made clear that it is not planning any immediate efforts on negotiating trade agreements but that doe...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Preview

USDA will release its Cattle Inventory report tomorrow. The total inventory of all cattle and calves as of 1 January 2020 was 94.4 million head, down a lit...

PM Post - King Corn Takes the Lead

THE OPEN March beans:  11 higher March meal:  2.40 higher March soyoil;  56 higher March corn:  14 higher March wheat:  2 higher T...

AM Outlook - Bulls in Control

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board except for wheat.  Bullish trends remain intact with corn and bean prices continuing to find support...

Technical Views - Sell Wheat, Buy Others

SPREADS March crush trades to 77.20c/bu while oilshare is 33.89%.  July/Dec corn trades to a new contract high at 89 1/2c with May/July at ctr highs o...

Inefficient Redistribution Policies; Overwhelming Complexity

Inefficient Redistribution Policies Researchers point out that governments use trade policies to redistribute income even though it is less efficient than...

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends China’s Ag Investment Lags, Slows Rural Development Goals As reported by the China rural economy blog, Dims Sums, the central government...

Canola Has Further to Climb

March canola oil closed at a new contract high today of $717.40/MT. IMF data shows global vegetable oil prices moving higher and canola oil likely still ha...

PM Post - Both Sides of Unchanged

THE OPEN March beans: 19 higher March meal:  5.90 higher March soyoil:  120 higher March corn:  11 higher March wheat:  4 3/4 higher Th...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets, 18-22 January 2021 The Russian domestic market prices followed the same pattern as the week before with little movement, increasing...

Technical Views - Announcements Fuel Higher Prices

SPREADS Spreads remain strong with July/Dec up to 86 1/4c with May/July at new contract highs at 8c.  March/May beans trades to 2c inverse from 3/4c,...

AM Outlook - Attractive Buying at the Bottom

GOOD MORNING, Calls are higher this morning with corn and soyoil posting new contract highs.  Funds continue to buy into what is very light farmer sel...

Market Commentary: Export Demand and Fund Buying Lifts CBOT

Export demand and a resurgence of fund buying sent CBOT corn, wheat, and soy complex futures sharply higher on Tuesday. The recent correction, whether driv...

Climate and Trade Winner; Price Loser

Incongruously, global sorghum production has fallen at the same time demand has sharply risen. Production is down in all the major producing countries, inc...

PM Post - Rebound

THE OPEN March beans:  22 higher March meal:  5.00 higher March soyoil:  87 higher March corn:  13 higher March wheat:  4 higher P...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Saudi Arabia’s Almarai Dairy has seen its last quarter of 2020 sales drop by 46 percent...

January Cold Storage Report

  The January Cold Storage report continues to reflect the impact of surprisingly strong domestic and export demand for pork while covid-19 related re...

AM Outlook - Higher from the Range Bottom

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to hammer out trading ranges heading into the end of the month, starting lower in the night session but reversing course to t...

Technical Views - Rebound

SPREADS March crush trades to 72c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.45%.   The corn inverses strengthened to new highs, with July/Dec trading up to...

Pork Demand Clears Out Freezers of Inventory

USDA released its monthly Cold Storage report today. Pork in cold storage as of 31 December was 408.361 MMT, 97 percent of November and 70 percent of Decem...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.115/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.485/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

Coproduct Gets Dissed

Global oilseed demand has been robust, growing by nearly a third over the past decade. Yet global cottonseed production has been flat to declining. By cont...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn planting is 94 percent completed across the expected 6.3 million hectares (Mha). Recent rains in the center and north of the co...

PM Post - Downside at End

THE OPEN March beans:  1/2 lower March meal:  .40 lower March soyoil:  4 higher March corn:  1/2 lower March wheat:  2 1/2 higher...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s weather remains warmer-than-normal for the next week. While no concerns currently exist for the crop (other than the imp...

AM Outlook - On the Defensive

GOOD MORNING, Prices are attempting to find overall trading range lows. Last week's round of liquidation hit the markets hard and most begin today still on...

Technical Views - Edging Lower

SPREADS March crush trades to 81c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.51%.   July/Dec corn inverse fallt to 65c but finds some stabilization here clos...

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed for the slaughter market in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.0 million head on January 1, 2021. The invento...

Export Sales

Wheat: Net sales of 329,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 49 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Cor...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.005/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.345/bushel, down $0.2625 from yesterday's close.&...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

  The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodit...

Market Commentary: CBOT Tumbles on Fund and Technical Selling

Trade was one-sided at the CBOT on Friday with aggressive selling the theme of the day. The markets opened on the defensive as expected, with funds lighten...

Cattle on Feed: Placements Higher than Expectations

USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today, conforming with pre-report expectations. The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head o...

Wait for the Experts; Cheap Gas

Wait for the Experts There is new leadership in Washington, and they are receiving appeals for reform of the U.S. food system. Most of the ideas are litera...

Challenge of Sustainability

The EU wants to reduce pesticide use by 50 percent and fertilizer applications by 20 percent. These are arbitrary metrics chosen by policymakers. To ensure...

PM Post - Seasonal Weakness Begins

THE OPEN March beans:  14 lower March meal:  3.00 lower March soyoil:  33 lower March corn:  4 1/2 lower March wheat:  14 lower Th...

AM Outlook - Night Trade Pressures, Morning Lows Hold

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower in the overnight session on yesterday's weaker close, weak macro markets, better rains in South America, more forecasts for...

Technical Views - Down and Dirty

SPREADS March crush trades to 77c/bu while oilshare trades at 33.13%.  The July/Dec corn inverse remains firm trading from 70c to 73 3/4c, while May/J...

Market Commentary: Lower Volume, Lower Changes

The bull market had a split decision today, with corn, soybeans and soyoil up but wheat taking its losses. USDA flash announcements of large old crop corn...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow – the first of the new year. Pre-report estimates from the industry put the total number...

Get What You Beget; Economic Weapons; Marketing Plan?

Get What You Beget It started with geographic indicators, then it moved on to country of origin labeling even for products made within the EU’s &ldqu...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.2425/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nb...

PM Post - Bends But No Breaks

THE OPEN March beans:  14 1/2 higher March meal:  3.00 higher March soyoil:  56 higher March corn:  7 1/4 higher March wheat:  2 h...

AM Outlook - Buyers Buoy Market

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to stabilize after this week's house-cleaning break, with more strength in the overnight session with talk that buyers were a...

Technical Views - Laddering the Range

SPREADS March crush trades to 68c/bu while oilshare bounces again to 32.60% from values that were at 31.0% on the lows.  May/July corn places a new co...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.6775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Fish and Livestock Jurisdiction; Sustainability Definition

Fish and Livestock Jurisdiction In one of its end of power moves, the Trump Administration orchestrated a Memorandum of Understanding that shifted regulato...

Disproportionate ASF Impacts

While China gets most of the attention on African Swine Fever just because of the volume of production adversely impacted, the Philippines has suffered a l...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China Sets Record For Pork Imports in 2020 The latest data release from the China Customs Bureau show that pork imports in December totaled 964,0...

PM Post - Recovery Trade Means Back to Sideways

THE OPEN March beans:  32 lower March meal:  11.100 lower March soyoil:  15 lower March corn;  11 lower March wheat:  13 lower The...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 January 2021 The Russian domestic market prices moved insignificantly, increasing mainly in the southern region, as the market...

AM Outlook - Follow-through Selling

GOOD MORNING,  Prices ratchet lower again overnight led by beans.  An improving weather pattern is the main catalyst, but the lack of funds addin...

Technical Views - All Lower

SPREADS March crush trades to 69.79c/bu while oilshare trades back up to 32.0%.   July /Nov bean spread is in capitulation with the inverse falli...

SEA High Road; China’s Mixed Story; Focus and Outlook

SEA High Road European activists have tarnished palm oil from Southeast Asia by saying it destroys rainforests and compelled some countries to ban its use...

2021 Sour Domestic Sugar Outlook

The MY 2020/21 outlook for sugar is for more domestic production and a reduction in imports, but with lower deliveries and increasing year-end stocks. Beet...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.26/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&n...

Next Pork Markets

Global pork exports have grown by 66 percent over the past decade, with China a major reason for the expansion. A major driver for China’s expanded i...

PM Post - Liquidation; Wheat Tops

THE OPEN March beans:  18 lower March meal:  5.80 lower March soyoil;  64 lower March corn:  1 lower March wheat:  7 higher Prices...

Technical Views - Wheat Up, Rest Down

SPREADS March crush falls further to 62c/bu, while oilshare weakens to 30.98%.    July/Dec corn inverse falls to 67 1/2c from 75c, while March/Ma...

AM Outlook - Busy Start

GOOD MORNING, The night session featured a higher wheat market vs. lower markets elsewhere, supported by Matif corn and wheat that gapped into new highs ov...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.755/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday

The CBOT/CME markets will be closed Monday, 18 January 2021 in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. WPI’s offices will be closed as well...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

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