FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 18 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 13 December 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets are in the middle of the holiday-season slowdown with thin and very quiet trade characterizing what little market activity is present. The peak demand period from the North American grain harvest has now past bu...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Bangladesh Food Import Projection
Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consumption. Imports include 5 MMT of grain (3.57 MMT is wheat), plus palm oil, milk powder, and other products. Roughly 3.5 percent of its food i...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Perceived Rice Shortage
Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and resulted in higher prices. The price of rice early this year was around $602/MT, substantially higher than the historical average of $381/MT...
Evolving Markets
Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...
Japan Boosts Corn and Protein
Japan’s population is declining by a half percent per year and will be 2 million smaller this year than in 2020. Nearly a third of the population is over 65 years of age, adding to the lower food demand factors. Yet the latest Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreig...
Eat Your Rice
South Korea wants more rice to be consumed and is subsidizing rice for college students, the cohort least likely to eat breakfast, and is incentivizing food products made from rice flour. Rice production is dropping as population growth has stalled, but rice consumption is dropping even faster...
Grain Substitution
Grain producers saw the value of their output fall in 2023 and the best they can hope for in 2024 is to stem the bleeding. Meanwhile, Europeans are frustrated as the price of cocoa has risen more than 50 percent over the past year. Asians are frightened as the price of rice has risen nearly 40...
Fostering Rice for Flour Unsustainable
South Korea has had a problem. Its farmers insist on growing rice while its consumers are increasingly switching consumption to wheat-based products. For the second time in recent years the government has contrived a subsidy plan to reduce rice output in favor of wheat or soybeans. It provides...
Tangential Rice Market Impacts
Given current tight global rice stocks and high prices (see graph below), the question is how much wheat will be substituted for food or feed use. Rice prices have dropped since their peak early this year, but wheat is still 35 percent cheaper by weight than rice as a food grain. It is one reas...
Vietnam’s Steady Growth
USDA/FAS forecasts Vietnam’s feed demand to grow to 26.6 MMT. This is largely pushed by a 3.3 percent expansion in pig production, and poultry rising by 2.3 percent. The overall economy is forecast to grow by 5 percent this year. Over the most recent four-year period, soybean imports are...
Rice Signals Future
Global rice stocks are down just 2.7 percent this year, but the drop is larger in key rice consuming countries, plus the largest rice exporting nation, India, imposed an export restriction. This has caused an exaggerated response in price with global values rising 29 percent year-on-year. ...
Rice Constrained
The Philippines Department of Agriculture announced the need to import another 500 KMT of rice. The country is already the second largest importer of rice after China, and this purchase will ensure it is a record year for Philippine imports. For most staple commodities, this is not a large volu...
Similarities of Farming and Manufacturing
Debate around the reauthorization of the U.S. farm bill is focused on the legislation’s two major functions, domestic food assistance and farm price supports. The former involves Republicans trying to reduce the most generous portions of what amounts to 81 percent of farm bill spending, a...
Türkiye’s Higher Wheat Flour Exports
Türkiye is the world’s largest exporter of wheat flour, and the International Grains Council says the country will export a record 5.4 MMT in MY 2023/24. That is up 12.5 percent from MY 2022/23. Part of the reason is a bumper domestic wheat crop based largely on higher yield. Rains a...
Forever Poor
Dhaka’s The Daily Star reports that Bangladesh seeks to avoid the increased trade disciplines that comes with the country’s elevation above least developed status. Except for the covid lockdown period, Bangladesh’s economy has been growing at 7 percent or better each year. Off...
South Korean Beef Supply
South Korea imposed increased inspection requirements on U.S> supplied beef following the finding of an atypical BSE case in South Carolina. Atypical cases occur spontaneously and, importantly, rarely. The U.S. remains in the category of being a negligible risk for BSE according to World Org...
North Korea Food Policy
North Korea has managed to produce the largest undernourished population of any country, 41.6 percent. Like supporters of Cuba, some blame U.S. sanctions policy, although food is excluded from any restrictions. Joseph Yi at Hanyang University in Seoul calls for resuming aid and supplying aid wo...
No Rice Crisis
The Economist magazine notes that rice yields are not improving very quickly and that the International Rice Research Institute says that it is the food commodity perhaps most vulnerable to climate change. It is also a major contributor to climate change due to its methane emissions and yet con...
Thailand Rice Exports
Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic production, and a rebounding global economy that has elevated the value of rice. In truth, Thai rice exports are highly correlated to production, wh...
Dreaming of Soybeans
Like many other countries that import soybeans, South Korea is hoping to become more self-sufficient in this oilseed. However, hope runs straight into the limits of geography. Right now the country produces about 9 percent of the 1.44 MMT of soybeans it consumes. Its agricultural area of 1.698...
Declining Population Impacts Consumption
According to USDA, South Korea’s government is taking steps to stop the price of rice from falling and to slow over-production. There will be payments to farmers for reducing planted area by 5.1 percent, and increased government purchases of rice at more than one-fifth of the crop. The pr...
Rice not Nice
India’s rice subsidies were again a complaint today at a hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. India’s rice exports have increased by a fifth over the past decade with all of it being moved into the export market. New Delhi’s rice subsidies have been part of a long-...
Philippines Agriculture; Future Trade Policy
Philippines Agriculture After remittances from overseas, agriculture and fisheries are the most important industries in the Philippines. A country of 114 million people of which one-quarter are engaged in agriculture. It is such an important sector that President Ferdinand “Bongbong&rdquo...
Japan Approves New Safeguard Triggers on U.S. Beef
Last week the Upper House of Japan’s Diet approved a new beef safeguard protocol which amends the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA). That is the final step of approval needed for the agreement and the two countries are finalizing the implementation procedures. The protocol was negotiated...
Wheat Concerns in Asia
Asia has been adopting wheat as a food staple over many decades but the war In Ukraine has some worried about its supply reliability. Over the past dozen years, rice consumption has averaged a 0.86 percent annual increase while wheat consumption has been growing at twice that rate. Because clim...
Free Trade Dreaming
The U.S. Congress often accomplishes more during lame duck sessions, the period after an election and before new members are sworn in, because those retiring from office converge with moderates to accomplish fundamental needs. Senator Rob Portman (R-Ohio) is retiring, and he has such a dream. H...
Alt-Meat Conundrum
Meat substitutes appear to be having trouble in the U.S. but perhaps not in Asia. Recent headlines related to the U.S. market imply a distribution chain that is a mile wide but just an inch deep. Here are some recent headlines: JBS pulled plug on plant-based meat division Planterra Foods Burnt...
No Rice Shortage
Food scarcity has been a frequent headline this year but with food inflation now dropping along with commodity prices, rice is an example of the scare that wasn’t. The monsoon was late starting in India, leading concerns that the world’s largest rice exporter would be driving up pri...
History Repeating is Okay
According to the news, multilateralism and globalization are in crisis. No less than U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said, “it’s not hard to imagine a world where we break into these blocs again.” Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said there’s...
Feed Demand from Stopping IUR
The WTO has been searching for limits in fisheries subsidies since at least 2001. There was agreement earlier this month to curb subsidies, though overfishing is expected to continue. Now the Biden Administration says it will continue to push for rules and enforcement against illegal and underr...
Russia Threatens Vegetable Oil
Oil palms require fertilizer every three months to maintain productivity but Russia’s war in Ukraine has threatened world supplies and driven up prices. This is particularly hurting Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier of palm oil. The imposition of export restrictions by Jakarta...
It’s More Than Food
In Japan, rice has been called the essence of culture; it has meant more than just food, though food security is the basis for policy interventions to protect it. Despite the nostalgia and market controls, rice on paddy fields is declining, giving way to more profitable wheat and soybeans that...
Flailing on Inflation; Japan’s Beef Craving; Incongruous Messaging
Flailing on Inflation Many months after inflation began eating into pocketbooks, the Biden Administration is on a full court press to try and address the problem. When it comes to food inflation, there is little that can be done. It simply costs more to grow, process, and ship product. When it...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High
The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister indicated the country is talking with the UN on potential food export corridors in the Black Sea, w...
Indo-Pacific Economic Framework: Trade Rules without Trade Access
On his trip to Asia, President Biden announced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) for Prosperity, along with 12 countries in the region. The plan is structured to 1) establish rules governing trade in digital goods and services, 2) create commitments regarding supply chain to eliminate...
Misdiagnosed; Potemkin Trade Policy
Misdiagnosed U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said this week that, “Higher food and energy prices are having stagflationary effects, namely depressing output and spending and raising inflation all around the world.” She pushed for increased international food aid and advised int...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Week Mixed Amid Bullish U.S., Brazilian Weather
Light volume trade, profit taking, and spread reversals led to a mixed CBOT on Friday. Wheat futures were sharply lower as showers across the Plains boosted the crop outlook and prompted profit taking and reversal of wheat/corn spreads. Corn pushed higher and scored a new contract high while so...
Market Commentary: Palm Oil Export Ban Create Soyoil High; Funds Sell Corn, Soybeans Despite Hot, Dry Brazilian Weather
The CFTC was mostly lower to end the week with funds emerging as profit-takers in corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat. The soyoil market scored a new contract high on news of a palm oil export ban from Indonesia, however, and the KCBT wheat market strengthened on continued poor weather forecasts...
Happy 10th Anniversary KORUS FTA
Last week’s WASDE raised the forecast for beef export. A large reason was Korea, so far the top export destination for U.S. beef. Indeed, today is the 10th anniversary of the U.S.-Korea free trade agreement. No other commodity has benefited as much as beef. Over the span of the agreement,...
Money Talks; Cultural Animal Welfare; GMO’s are Safer
Money Talks The Conference Board notes that it has been a record year for shareholder proposals involving environmental and social initiatives. However, the outcome of such an initiative at Tysons Foods shows that most shareholders are focused on a company’s bottom line. They voted overwh...
Not so Sweet; Not so Green
Not so Sweet The WTO last month sided with Australia, Brazil, and Guatemala that India’s sugar subsidies were distorting and illegal. India has appealed the ruling knowing that the WTO’s Appellate Panel is non-functioning, thus putting the case in limbo. However, Brazil intends to r...
Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm
Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...
Workers of World United
The analytics company CultureX says that people are more likely to quit their jobs due to a toxic workplace culture than due to their salary. That may be true but a Bain & Company survey of 20,000 workers in ten countries found that compensation was the number one issue for employees. This...
Three-Year Rebuild
The price of palm oil has been rising since the start of 2021, reaching a local price roughly double the average of the previous dozen years. Production in 2021 was down around 5 percent from the historical average, but the lowest since 2016. Malaysian palm oil exports were down nearly 11...
Beef: Where East Meets West
Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U.S. It has also resulted in a drawdown in the regions surplus stocks. Complicating the supply situation has been drought in Australia, an at...
Creeping Toward CPTPP
President Biden said he would first build back America’s infrastructure before re-engaging the U.S. in trade agreements. It should be noted that his infrastructure packages are stalled on Capitol Hill at the same time his trade policy has been creeping along toward fruition. Transatlantic...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Soybean Stocks; Palm Oil Price; ND Soy Crush Plant
U.S. Soy Export Sales and Exports Update Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters had a positive week selling U.S. soybeans for export in the week ending 23 September. Soybean exports also picked up from the previous week. Sales of soymeal also were fairly positive. ...
Wine over Beer; Bad Timing; PR Approach; Korean Hope
Wine over Beer Policymakers hoping to compel the citizenry into drastic actions to cut carbon emissions have poured cold water on their messaging with the current energy price spike. Now opponents are piling on with their own stark reminders of how cold literally kills. Winter cold still kills...
Market Commentary: Macro Risk Off
Don’t take it personally that markets across the board showed weakness today. Exceptions being the dollar and lean hogs. The problem is dropping consumer sentiment as growth slows in Asia and worries grow about inflation. Notable was the Biden Administration’s announced plan to atta...
Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad
Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President of the Almond Board Alliance of California. Her prior experience includes serving as Deputy Secretary and Assistant Secretary at the Califor...
Oilseed Bonanza
Rabobank reports that over $2 billion is being invested to expand North American oilseed crush capacity. Part will be to support the expansion in biodiesel but overall oilseed demand remains strong. While the world’s population grows at an annual rate of 1.1 percent, global trade in veget...
It is all Relative
The inflating costs of energy has some policymakers concerned about its impact on the economic recovery as consumers redirect their spending obligations. However, it is important to weigh inflation relative to the base cost. For example, energy costs are inflating faster in the U.S. and Canada,...
Common Poverty; Saved by Drought; Vietnam Concessions
Common Poverty Chinese President Xi Jinping has taken the Communist manifesto to heart and declared a “common prosperity” for all Chinese. Socialism and capitalism successfully coexist but it is dependent on private businesses retaining a degree of independence, certainty about the...
Commodities Fuel Bogeyman; Journalistic Malpractice; Cold Afghan Water
Commodities Fuel Bogeyman In the most recent Hill-HarrisX poll of American public opinion, the top selected issue of current concern is inflation. Inequality slightly beat out inflation as a top concern for Democratic respondents, who also had very low concern for the second most important issu...
Inconvenient Truths; Innovative Approach; Killing Innovation
Inconvenient Truths EU officials released a preliminary analysis of the impacts of the F2F and biodiversity changes to the CAP and major farm organizations Copa & Cogeca have highlighted its disappointing results. The EU’s Joint Research Center came to the same conclusions as USDA&rsq...
U.S. Red Meat Exports Winning the Long Game
The May export data is in. Pork export volume was the third highest on record behind March 2020 and March 2021. Beef export volume set a historic record (also beating the previous high mark of March 2021), and for the third consecutive month the beef export value set a record. To date, beef exp...
We Have The Meat
There are a lot of voices discouraging the consumption of meat but for much of the world, demand continues to grow. Most of that demand growth is in Asia and so it is little surprise that the trade in pork has been growing the fastest. Given its lower cost, it would be reasonable to assume that...
Productivity Impacts; Classic Policy Divides
Productivity Impacts The Kansas City Federal Reserve kicked off its annual conference on agriculture with this year’s topic seemingly a little tin eared. The focus is on productivity. Topics include the role of research and development, technology and data, and spillover effects on the su...
Anti-Meat Campaign; Personnel Picks
Anti-Meat Campaign The number of media articles against consuming meat and poultry is beginning to spike. They cover the range of arguments served up by vegetarian campaigners – bad for the environment, bad for human health, unethical, etc. There are of course counter-arguments but there...
Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook
It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a $272/cwt average last week, which was up about $20/cwt from the week prior. Part of that rally is demand, and part is supply. March beef pr...
Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy; Trade Bullying
Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy A session at the Washington International Trade Association today tried to unravel the meaning of the Biden Administration’s so-called worker-led trade policy. Most of the discussion centered on high level economic theory and the mischaracterization of tra...
Pandemic Not Fully Reflected
The Pew Research Center has attracted a lot of ink for its analysis of losses to middle income earners from the pandemic. Its data, derived from World Bank and IMF numbers, show the greatest loss of the middle class in South Asia, followed by East Asia. The advanced economies saw growth in the...
Taiwan – Tip of the Spear
It is unclear which of several geopolitical rifts (Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea, etc.) between China and the west is going to prove the tipping point toward open conflict but there are ample opportunities. Beijing’s latest move was to reduce and control the number of elect...
Camel’s Nose; Technology and Sustainability; Limits of Sanctions
Camel’s Nose USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack appeared to discount Mexico’s plan to ban glyphosate and GMO corn by saying it would not affect U.S. feed corn being shipped south. However, the U.S. ships a certain amount of white corn to Mexico for human consumption and, more importantly, M...
ASF Loosens Import Restrictions
The Philippines may increase its pork imports under a reduced tariff by over 600 percent, from 54,210 MT to 404,210 MT to better meet demand and reduce price inflation. The agriculture ministry says around 15 percent of the hog inventory was lost to ASF in 2020 and, as a result, it cannot meet...
Tough Sino-West Balance; Japan Pickle
Tough Sino-West Balance Any hope of comity with China went out the window last week in Anchorage and into the sewer this week over sanctions related to treatment of the Uyghurs. China is making it clear that it will not be somehow characterized as morally inferior to the west. It has pulled man...
Real WTO Problem; Beggars’ Rights; Political Horse-trading
Real WTO Problem The President’s 2021 Trade Agenda and 2020 Annual Report highlights the trade protectionism in India and efforts to change New Delhi’s policies. One area of criticism is “Make in India” campaign but that is not such a unique policy. Many countries are no...
Sustainability Goals; Splintering Transatlantic; Korea Reveals WTO Flaws
Sustainability Goals Returning USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack says that agriculture is ready to embrace the goals of slowing climate change. President Biden has issued several executive orders limiting fossil fuel development and more are forthcoming. However, his centrally planned Build America Be...
Disproportionate ASF Impacts
While China gets most of the attention on African Swine Fever just because of the volume of production adversely impacted, the Philippines has suffered a larger percentage drop in output. From peak to trough, Chinese pork production fell 30 percent, but Filipino production is off 32.8 percent...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Profit Taking, Weak Palm Oil; South American Dryness Returns this Week
The CBOT settled lower under a mix of profit taking and position liquidation after a weekend of mostly favorable weather across South America. Funds were heavy sellers in corn and soybeans, selling some 15,000 and 20,000 contracts, respectively, in each market. The CBOT tends to weaken in the s...
Next Pork Markets
Global pork exports have grown by 66 percent over the past decade, with China a major reason for the expansion. A major driver for China’s expanded imports over the past year-plus has been African Swine Fever. Now that ASF is under control and China’s domestic hog herd is expanding...
Veg Oil Leads Spike
The UN FAO reports that global agricultural commodity prices rose 3.1 percent in 2020. Though overall commodity prices are still below 2012 levels, vegetable oil prices are now at their highest level since that pivotal year. Global vegetable oil prices rose 4.7 percent in December alone, and we...
Besmirch Strategy Fails; More Quid Pro Quo; Prospects for Biden and 2021
Besmirch Strategy Fails Activists called it an acute health threat, orchestrated petitions and demanded that institutions only serve domestic pork. Despite a well-organized campaign of opposition to importing U.S. pork raised with the beta-agonist growth promoter ractopamine, Taiwan's parliamen...
Coming Currency War; Trees Over People; Punching Above Weight Class
Coming Currency War The dollar is now nearly 13 percent weaker than it was earlier this year and possibly headed lower based on massive deficit spending. The inverse is that other currencies are getting stronger. And for those nations that are export dependent, a stronger currency threatens the...
Stick Picked; Digital Leakage; Baht Caught
Stick Picked In U.S. agriculture, the head of USDA is sugar daddy, handing out checks, buying up surpluses and generally using carrots to obtain environmental improvements. By contrast, EPA is the stick side of the equation, laying down regulatory compliance requirements that impose costs on fa...
Offline is More Fun; Chicken or Egg; Leaving a Goose Egg
Offline is More Fun Today was the first day of this year’s online EU Agricultural Outlook Conference, but more fun was had in the sidebar chats of participants watching the speakers via their computer screens. The first day was dominated by officials explaining the Farm to Fork and Green...
Global Flour Trade Has Changed
The U.S. was once the largest wheat flour exporter in the world followed by Canada, but that trade now belongs to a different part of the world – Southwest and Central Asia. Turkey and Kazakhstan are the #10 and #13 wheat producing countries, respectively, but together they control 37 per...
Maize Harder to Yield
Maize is harder to grow, or at least harder to grow well. Crop yields vary tremendously across the hundreds of countries where grown but the disparity is more notable for corn. For rice and wheat, the country with the 15th highest yield in these two crops is netting over 60 percent of the yield...
Water Investment
The extremely dry conditions in Argentina illustrate the low level of irrigation in many countries around the world. In terms of number of irrigated hectares, China is number one, followed by India and then the U.S. However, on a percent share of total agricultural land, Japan is by far number...
Biden Trade Policy
President-Elect Joe Biden has not yet named his nominee to become U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) but there are plenty of breadcrumbs that suggest the person will be: 1) conventional; and 2) likely a former Obama Administration official. That has been the pattern for his other economic policy...
Agriculture’s Gig Workers; Final Acts – Part 1; No New Hazards; Geneva Squeeze
Agriculture’s Gig Workers A consortium of leftist, environmental and anti-meat activists is suing U.S. meat companies for marketing their products as produced by independent family farmers. The groups argue that due to the contracting system utilized, the meat is instead the output of cor...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Concern is rising for the Argentina wheat market after Brazil, the primary buyer of Argentine wheat, announced a tariff-free import quota of 750,000 MT of wheat from non-MERCOSUR origins. At the same time, the RECP free trade agreement might give Australia an advantage selling wheat to de...
Agriculture and RCEP
Asian leaders gather this Sunday to hopefully put the final touches on a trade agreement called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The negotiations have taken eight years and, as usual, the word comprehensive does not apply to agriculture. Likely exempt from tariff reductio...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Buys U.S. Soyoil; Shortage of Containers
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Last week was another good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans and soybean products. If the pace of sales and exports continue it could be a record export year for the U.S. soybean sector. Net export sales of soybeans in the week ending 29 October totaled 1,530,5...
Post-Trump Outcomes; Food but Not Income; Between Elephants
Post-Trump Outcomes Analysts in Washington are war gaming the possible aftermath of next Tuesday’s presidential election and finding nothing good. On the one hand, if Mr. Trump wins reelection, the “swamp” as he likes to call it, predicts a newly emboldened incumbent White Hou...
Denuded Logic; Tax Consequences
Denuded Logic A key argument by some Europeans in both opposing palm oil imports, voting against a trade agreement with Brazil, and seeking self-sufficiency in plant proteins is deforestation. Politicians are reminded that Brazil’s rainforests are the earth’s “lungs” and...
Biden Implications to Phase One; Inequitable Compensation; Apples and Oranges
Biden Implications to Phase One At this juncture, China needs soybeans, corn and other products, and the U.S. is currently the lowest cost supplier of some agricultural commodities. However, one question is how faithful will China be to Phase One purchasing obligations when other suppliers beco...
Worse than Agriculture
The agriculture sector is under strong criticism for its harm to the environment. Multilateral disciplines on agricultural subsidies are considered too weak, but at least they exist. The damage caused by subsidized fishing is less obvious to the layman because it lies under the sea. One study c...
Wheat-Rice Substitution
In the classic position of a wheat exporting nation, consumers that have traditionally consumed rice as a food grain ultimately become wheat consumers. This is true, but it can also be said that traditional wheat consumers eat more rice when given access to it. Southeast Asian countries l...
Experience versus Korea; Breaking the GMO Boundary
Experience versus Korea The runoff to be the next leader of the WTO is between Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and South Korea’s Yoo Myung-hee. Because of her successful career in a sister international institution, the World Bank, Ms. Okonjo-Iweala likely has stronger operational ski...
Pick Your Poison
Given China’s pork shortage and its concurrent sensitivity to imports, some have speculated that pork has been entering the country, or is poised to, via unofficial pathways. Many countries are talking about shortening supply chains and increasing self-sufficiency. Taiwan went the opposit...
Oilseed Highlights: Palm Oil Ban; Soy Export Sales; Argentine Export Taxes; Soybean Stocks
U.S. Bans Imports of Crude Palm Oil from Malaysian Company FGV Holdings The U.S. Government yesterday banned imports of crude palm oil from the Malaysian Firm FGV Holdings. The ban came after a year-long investigation by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency that revealed signs of...
Forex Contradictions; Good Consortiums; Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My!
Forex Contradictions President Donald Trump may not understand the complexities of currency valuations, but he knows their importance. His concurrent chastising of foreign governments for manipulating those values while making threats against the dollars’ worth not-withstanding. China has...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle
Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberalized trade. She called for settling the current bilateral disputes like Airbus/Boeing, plus working together on WTO reforms and China. That ma...
Rice Self-Sufficiency
It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire. Global rice trade hi...
Vertical Energy; Good News
Vertical Energy Temasek Holdings and Bayer announced an investment in vertical agriculture in Singapore. It should be noted that their focus is on producing and marketing seeds and not actual production. Vertical agriculture promises an escape from the variable of weather, but the addition of t...
Another Leader Down; Tipping Past Taipei; Energy Disruption
Another Leader Down The announcement that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzö Abe will resign to focus on a chronic health issue was a shock and could be disruptive. Abe ended Japan’s previous run of frequent turnover at the top and became the longest serving leader in history. His abilit...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Wants Biotech Oilseeds and Higher Oil Tariffs
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report was both positive and somewhat disappointing. Sales of soybeans for the upcoming marketing year were large, but not for 2019/20. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were disappointing. However, exports of soybeans and soymeal last week...
Harris on Food; Seasonal Produce Hearing; Pick Your Partner; Idle or Convert; Truth to Power
Harris on Food U.S. Senator Kamala Harris (D-California) is Mr. Biden’s selection for vice president on his ticket and she is your garden variety Democrat when it comes to agriculture. She advocates for farmworkers, domestic food assistance and is a co-sponsor of the Green New Deal. Perha...
Yield versus Exporting
U.S. corn farmers out-yield their competitors but then lose to the competition’s lower prices. Similarly, Vietnam has the highest rice yields in Southeast Asia but fails to compete with Thailand in exporting despite the latter having the smallest yield in the region. According to industry...
Beef Growth and Decline
Beef is expensive to produce, emits the most greenhouse gases, is highly cultural in some places and has a highly evolving demand structure. Over the past decade, consumption of beef in otherwise relatively large consuming Russia has declined the most of any of the top 20 countries. Note that t...
Building a Poultry Industry
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was in the news inspecting a new chicken farm and calling for improvements to an outdated poultry industry. Efficient poultry production involves processes and feed. The former may be easier than the latter given that country’s climate and geography, though...
USDA Reports: Protein Production Recovery, Global Trade Decline
Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast up from last month. Last month’s WASDE total beef, pork and broiler production estimate for 2020 was bumped up to be 0.05 percent greater than 2019. This month it is projected to be 1.7 percent ahead of last...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 18 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 13 December 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets are in the middle of the holiday-season slowdown with thin and very quiet trade characterizing what little market activity is present. The peak demand period from the North American grain harvest has now past bu...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Bangladesh Food Import Projection
Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consumption. Imports include 5 MMT of grain (3.57 MMT is wheat), plus palm oil, milk powder, and other products. Roughly 3.5 percent of its food i...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Perceived Rice Shortage
Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and resulted in higher prices. The price of rice early this year was around $602/MT, substantially higher than the historical average of $381/MT...
Evolving Markets
Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...
Japan Boosts Corn and Protein
Japan’s population is declining by a half percent per year and will be 2 million smaller this year than in 2020. Nearly a third of the population is over 65 years of age, adding to the lower food demand factors. Yet the latest Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreig...
Eat Your Rice
South Korea wants more rice to be consumed and is subsidizing rice for college students, the cohort least likely to eat breakfast, and is incentivizing food products made from rice flour. Rice production is dropping as population growth has stalled, but rice consumption is dropping even faster...
Grain Substitution
Grain producers saw the value of their output fall in 2023 and the best they can hope for in 2024 is to stem the bleeding. Meanwhile, Europeans are frustrated as the price of cocoa has risen more than 50 percent over the past year. Asians are frightened as the price of rice has risen nearly 40...
Fostering Rice for Flour Unsustainable
South Korea has had a problem. Its farmers insist on growing rice while its consumers are increasingly switching consumption to wheat-based products. For the second time in recent years the government has contrived a subsidy plan to reduce rice output in favor of wheat or soybeans. It provides...
Tangential Rice Market Impacts
Given current tight global rice stocks and high prices (see graph below), the question is how much wheat will be substituted for food or feed use. Rice prices have dropped since their peak early this year, but wheat is still 35 percent cheaper by weight than rice as a food grain. It is one reas...
Vietnam’s Steady Growth
USDA/FAS forecasts Vietnam’s feed demand to grow to 26.6 MMT. This is largely pushed by a 3.3 percent expansion in pig production, and poultry rising by 2.3 percent. The overall economy is forecast to grow by 5 percent this year. Over the most recent four-year period, soybean imports are...
Rice Signals Future
Global rice stocks are down just 2.7 percent this year, but the drop is larger in key rice consuming countries, plus the largest rice exporting nation, India, imposed an export restriction. This has caused an exaggerated response in price with global values rising 29 percent year-on-year. ...
Rice Constrained
The Philippines Department of Agriculture announced the need to import another 500 KMT of rice. The country is already the second largest importer of rice after China, and this purchase will ensure it is a record year for Philippine imports. For most staple commodities, this is not a large volu...
Similarities of Farming and Manufacturing
Debate around the reauthorization of the U.S. farm bill is focused on the legislation’s two major functions, domestic food assistance and farm price supports. The former involves Republicans trying to reduce the most generous portions of what amounts to 81 percent of farm bill spending, a...
Türkiye’s Higher Wheat Flour Exports
Türkiye is the world’s largest exporter of wheat flour, and the International Grains Council says the country will export a record 5.4 MMT in MY 2023/24. That is up 12.5 percent from MY 2022/23. Part of the reason is a bumper domestic wheat crop based largely on higher yield. Rains a...
Forever Poor
Dhaka’s The Daily Star reports that Bangladesh seeks to avoid the increased trade disciplines that comes with the country’s elevation above least developed status. Except for the covid lockdown period, Bangladesh’s economy has been growing at 7 percent or better each year. Off...
South Korean Beef Supply
South Korea imposed increased inspection requirements on U.S> supplied beef following the finding of an atypical BSE case in South Carolina. Atypical cases occur spontaneously and, importantly, rarely. The U.S. remains in the category of being a negligible risk for BSE according to World Org...
North Korea Food Policy
North Korea has managed to produce the largest undernourished population of any country, 41.6 percent. Like supporters of Cuba, some blame U.S. sanctions policy, although food is excluded from any restrictions. Joseph Yi at Hanyang University in Seoul calls for resuming aid and supplying aid wo...
No Rice Crisis
The Economist magazine notes that rice yields are not improving very quickly and that the International Rice Research Institute says that it is the food commodity perhaps most vulnerable to climate change. It is also a major contributor to climate change due to its methane emissions and yet con...
Thailand Rice Exports
Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic production, and a rebounding global economy that has elevated the value of rice. In truth, Thai rice exports are highly correlated to production, wh...
Dreaming of Soybeans
Like many other countries that import soybeans, South Korea is hoping to become more self-sufficient in this oilseed. However, hope runs straight into the limits of geography. Right now the country produces about 9 percent of the 1.44 MMT of soybeans it consumes. Its agricultural area of 1.698...
Declining Population Impacts Consumption
According to USDA, South Korea’s government is taking steps to stop the price of rice from falling and to slow over-production. There will be payments to farmers for reducing planted area by 5.1 percent, and increased government purchases of rice at more than one-fifth of the crop. The pr...
Rice not Nice
India’s rice subsidies were again a complaint today at a hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. India’s rice exports have increased by a fifth over the past decade with all of it being moved into the export market. New Delhi’s rice subsidies have been part of a long-...
Philippines Agriculture; Future Trade Policy
Philippines Agriculture After remittances from overseas, agriculture and fisheries are the most important industries in the Philippines. A country of 114 million people of which one-quarter are engaged in agriculture. It is such an important sector that President Ferdinand “Bongbong&rdquo...
Japan Approves New Safeguard Triggers on U.S. Beef
Last week the Upper House of Japan’s Diet approved a new beef safeguard protocol which amends the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA). That is the final step of approval needed for the agreement and the two countries are finalizing the implementation procedures. The protocol was negotiated...
Wheat Concerns in Asia
Asia has been adopting wheat as a food staple over many decades but the war In Ukraine has some worried about its supply reliability. Over the past dozen years, rice consumption has averaged a 0.86 percent annual increase while wheat consumption has been growing at twice that rate. Because clim...
Free Trade Dreaming
The U.S. Congress often accomplishes more during lame duck sessions, the period after an election and before new members are sworn in, because those retiring from office converge with moderates to accomplish fundamental needs. Senator Rob Portman (R-Ohio) is retiring, and he has such a dream. H...
Alt-Meat Conundrum
Meat substitutes appear to be having trouble in the U.S. but perhaps not in Asia. Recent headlines related to the U.S. market imply a distribution chain that is a mile wide but just an inch deep. Here are some recent headlines: JBS pulled plug on plant-based meat division Planterra Foods Burnt...
No Rice Shortage
Food scarcity has been a frequent headline this year but with food inflation now dropping along with commodity prices, rice is an example of the scare that wasn’t. The monsoon was late starting in India, leading concerns that the world’s largest rice exporter would be driving up pri...
History Repeating is Okay
According to the news, multilateralism and globalization are in crisis. No less than U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said, “it’s not hard to imagine a world where we break into these blocs again.” Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said there’s...
Feed Demand from Stopping IUR
The WTO has been searching for limits in fisheries subsidies since at least 2001. There was agreement earlier this month to curb subsidies, though overfishing is expected to continue. Now the Biden Administration says it will continue to push for rules and enforcement against illegal and underr...
Russia Threatens Vegetable Oil
Oil palms require fertilizer every three months to maintain productivity but Russia’s war in Ukraine has threatened world supplies and driven up prices. This is particularly hurting Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier of palm oil. The imposition of export restrictions by Jakarta...
It’s More Than Food
In Japan, rice has been called the essence of culture; it has meant more than just food, though food security is the basis for policy interventions to protect it. Despite the nostalgia and market controls, rice on paddy fields is declining, giving way to more profitable wheat and soybeans that...
Flailing on Inflation; Japan’s Beef Craving; Incongruous Messaging
Flailing on Inflation Many months after inflation began eating into pocketbooks, the Biden Administration is on a full court press to try and address the problem. When it comes to food inflation, there is little that can be done. It simply costs more to grow, process, and ship product. When it...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High
The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister indicated the country is talking with the UN on potential food export corridors in the Black Sea, w...
Indo-Pacific Economic Framework: Trade Rules without Trade Access
On his trip to Asia, President Biden announced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) for Prosperity, along with 12 countries in the region. The plan is structured to 1) establish rules governing trade in digital goods and services, 2) create commitments regarding supply chain to eliminate...
Misdiagnosed; Potemkin Trade Policy
Misdiagnosed U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said this week that, “Higher food and energy prices are having stagflationary effects, namely depressing output and spending and raising inflation all around the world.” She pushed for increased international food aid and advised int...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Week Mixed Amid Bullish U.S., Brazilian Weather
Light volume trade, profit taking, and spread reversals led to a mixed CBOT on Friday. Wheat futures were sharply lower as showers across the Plains boosted the crop outlook and prompted profit taking and reversal of wheat/corn spreads. Corn pushed higher and scored a new contract high while so...
Market Commentary: Palm Oil Export Ban Create Soyoil High; Funds Sell Corn, Soybeans Despite Hot, Dry Brazilian Weather
The CFTC was mostly lower to end the week with funds emerging as profit-takers in corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat. The soyoil market scored a new contract high on news of a palm oil export ban from Indonesia, however, and the KCBT wheat market strengthened on continued poor weather forecasts...
Happy 10th Anniversary KORUS FTA
Last week’s WASDE raised the forecast for beef export. A large reason was Korea, so far the top export destination for U.S. beef. Indeed, today is the 10th anniversary of the U.S.-Korea free trade agreement. No other commodity has benefited as much as beef. Over the span of the agreement,...
Money Talks; Cultural Animal Welfare; GMO’s are Safer
Money Talks The Conference Board notes that it has been a record year for shareholder proposals involving environmental and social initiatives. However, the outcome of such an initiative at Tysons Foods shows that most shareholders are focused on a company’s bottom line. They voted overwh...
Not so Sweet; Not so Green
Not so Sweet The WTO last month sided with Australia, Brazil, and Guatemala that India’s sugar subsidies were distorting and illegal. India has appealed the ruling knowing that the WTO’s Appellate Panel is non-functioning, thus putting the case in limbo. However, Brazil intends to r...
Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm
Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...
Workers of World United
The analytics company CultureX says that people are more likely to quit their jobs due to a toxic workplace culture than due to their salary. That may be true but a Bain & Company survey of 20,000 workers in ten countries found that compensation was the number one issue for employees. This...
Three-Year Rebuild
The price of palm oil has been rising since the start of 2021, reaching a local price roughly double the average of the previous dozen years. Production in 2021 was down around 5 percent from the historical average, but the lowest since 2016. Malaysian palm oil exports were down nearly 11...
Beef: Where East Meets West
Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U.S. It has also resulted in a drawdown in the regions surplus stocks. Complicating the supply situation has been drought in Australia, an at...
Creeping Toward CPTPP
President Biden said he would first build back America’s infrastructure before re-engaging the U.S. in trade agreements. It should be noted that his infrastructure packages are stalled on Capitol Hill at the same time his trade policy has been creeping along toward fruition. Transatlantic...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Soybean Stocks; Palm Oil Price; ND Soy Crush Plant
U.S. Soy Export Sales and Exports Update Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters had a positive week selling U.S. soybeans for export in the week ending 23 September. Soybean exports also picked up from the previous week. Sales of soymeal also were fairly positive. ...
Wine over Beer; Bad Timing; PR Approach; Korean Hope
Wine over Beer Policymakers hoping to compel the citizenry into drastic actions to cut carbon emissions have poured cold water on their messaging with the current energy price spike. Now opponents are piling on with their own stark reminders of how cold literally kills. Winter cold still kills...
Market Commentary: Macro Risk Off
Don’t take it personally that markets across the board showed weakness today. Exceptions being the dollar and lean hogs. The problem is dropping consumer sentiment as growth slows in Asia and worries grow about inflation. Notable was the Biden Administration’s announced plan to atta...
Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad
Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President of the Almond Board Alliance of California. Her prior experience includes serving as Deputy Secretary and Assistant Secretary at the Califor...
Oilseed Bonanza
Rabobank reports that over $2 billion is being invested to expand North American oilseed crush capacity. Part will be to support the expansion in biodiesel but overall oilseed demand remains strong. While the world’s population grows at an annual rate of 1.1 percent, global trade in veget...
It is all Relative
The inflating costs of energy has some policymakers concerned about its impact on the economic recovery as consumers redirect their spending obligations. However, it is important to weigh inflation relative to the base cost. For example, energy costs are inflating faster in the U.S. and Canada,...
Common Poverty; Saved by Drought; Vietnam Concessions
Common Poverty Chinese President Xi Jinping has taken the Communist manifesto to heart and declared a “common prosperity” for all Chinese. Socialism and capitalism successfully coexist but it is dependent on private businesses retaining a degree of independence, certainty about the...
Commodities Fuel Bogeyman; Journalistic Malpractice; Cold Afghan Water
Commodities Fuel Bogeyman In the most recent Hill-HarrisX poll of American public opinion, the top selected issue of current concern is inflation. Inequality slightly beat out inflation as a top concern for Democratic respondents, who also had very low concern for the second most important issu...
Inconvenient Truths; Innovative Approach; Killing Innovation
Inconvenient Truths EU officials released a preliminary analysis of the impacts of the F2F and biodiversity changes to the CAP and major farm organizations Copa & Cogeca have highlighted its disappointing results. The EU’s Joint Research Center came to the same conclusions as USDA&rsq...
U.S. Red Meat Exports Winning the Long Game
The May export data is in. Pork export volume was the third highest on record behind March 2020 and March 2021. Beef export volume set a historic record (also beating the previous high mark of March 2021), and for the third consecutive month the beef export value set a record. To date, beef exp...
We Have The Meat
There are a lot of voices discouraging the consumption of meat but for much of the world, demand continues to grow. Most of that demand growth is in Asia and so it is little surprise that the trade in pork has been growing the fastest. Given its lower cost, it would be reasonable to assume that...
Productivity Impacts; Classic Policy Divides
Productivity Impacts The Kansas City Federal Reserve kicked off its annual conference on agriculture with this year’s topic seemingly a little tin eared. The focus is on productivity. Topics include the role of research and development, technology and data, and spillover effects on the su...
Anti-Meat Campaign; Personnel Picks
Anti-Meat Campaign The number of media articles against consuming meat and poultry is beginning to spike. They cover the range of arguments served up by vegetarian campaigners – bad for the environment, bad for human health, unethical, etc. There are of course counter-arguments but there...
Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook
It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a $272/cwt average last week, which was up about $20/cwt from the week prior. Part of that rally is demand, and part is supply. March beef pr...
Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy; Trade Bullying
Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy A session at the Washington International Trade Association today tried to unravel the meaning of the Biden Administration’s so-called worker-led trade policy. Most of the discussion centered on high level economic theory and the mischaracterization of tra...
Pandemic Not Fully Reflected
The Pew Research Center has attracted a lot of ink for its analysis of losses to middle income earners from the pandemic. Its data, derived from World Bank and IMF numbers, show the greatest loss of the middle class in South Asia, followed by East Asia. The advanced economies saw growth in the...
Taiwan – Tip of the Spear
It is unclear which of several geopolitical rifts (Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea, etc.) between China and the west is going to prove the tipping point toward open conflict but there are ample opportunities. Beijing’s latest move was to reduce and control the number of elect...
Camel’s Nose; Technology and Sustainability; Limits of Sanctions
Camel’s Nose USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack appeared to discount Mexico’s plan to ban glyphosate and GMO corn by saying it would not affect U.S. feed corn being shipped south. However, the U.S. ships a certain amount of white corn to Mexico for human consumption and, more importantly, M...
ASF Loosens Import Restrictions
The Philippines may increase its pork imports under a reduced tariff by over 600 percent, from 54,210 MT to 404,210 MT to better meet demand and reduce price inflation. The agriculture ministry says around 15 percent of the hog inventory was lost to ASF in 2020 and, as a result, it cannot meet...
Tough Sino-West Balance; Japan Pickle
Tough Sino-West Balance Any hope of comity with China went out the window last week in Anchorage and into the sewer this week over sanctions related to treatment of the Uyghurs. China is making it clear that it will not be somehow characterized as morally inferior to the west. It has pulled man...
Real WTO Problem; Beggars’ Rights; Political Horse-trading
Real WTO Problem The President’s 2021 Trade Agenda and 2020 Annual Report highlights the trade protectionism in India and efforts to change New Delhi’s policies. One area of criticism is “Make in India” campaign but that is not such a unique policy. Many countries are no...
Sustainability Goals; Splintering Transatlantic; Korea Reveals WTO Flaws
Sustainability Goals Returning USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack says that agriculture is ready to embrace the goals of slowing climate change. President Biden has issued several executive orders limiting fossil fuel development and more are forthcoming. However, his centrally planned Build America Be...
Disproportionate ASF Impacts
While China gets most of the attention on African Swine Fever just because of the volume of production adversely impacted, the Philippines has suffered a larger percentage drop in output. From peak to trough, Chinese pork production fell 30 percent, but Filipino production is off 32.8 percent...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Profit Taking, Weak Palm Oil; South American Dryness Returns this Week
The CBOT settled lower under a mix of profit taking and position liquidation after a weekend of mostly favorable weather across South America. Funds were heavy sellers in corn and soybeans, selling some 15,000 and 20,000 contracts, respectively, in each market. The CBOT tends to weaken in the s...
Next Pork Markets
Global pork exports have grown by 66 percent over the past decade, with China a major reason for the expansion. A major driver for China’s expanded imports over the past year-plus has been African Swine Fever. Now that ASF is under control and China’s domestic hog herd is expanding...
Veg Oil Leads Spike
The UN FAO reports that global agricultural commodity prices rose 3.1 percent in 2020. Though overall commodity prices are still below 2012 levels, vegetable oil prices are now at their highest level since that pivotal year. Global vegetable oil prices rose 4.7 percent in December alone, and we...
Besmirch Strategy Fails; More Quid Pro Quo; Prospects for Biden and 2021
Besmirch Strategy Fails Activists called it an acute health threat, orchestrated petitions and demanded that institutions only serve domestic pork. Despite a well-organized campaign of opposition to importing U.S. pork raised with the beta-agonist growth promoter ractopamine, Taiwan's parliamen...
Coming Currency War; Trees Over People; Punching Above Weight Class
Coming Currency War The dollar is now nearly 13 percent weaker than it was earlier this year and possibly headed lower based on massive deficit spending. The inverse is that other currencies are getting stronger. And for those nations that are export dependent, a stronger currency threatens the...
Stick Picked; Digital Leakage; Baht Caught
Stick Picked In U.S. agriculture, the head of USDA is sugar daddy, handing out checks, buying up surpluses and generally using carrots to obtain environmental improvements. By contrast, EPA is the stick side of the equation, laying down regulatory compliance requirements that impose costs on fa...
Offline is More Fun; Chicken or Egg; Leaving a Goose Egg
Offline is More Fun Today was the first day of this year’s online EU Agricultural Outlook Conference, but more fun was had in the sidebar chats of participants watching the speakers via their computer screens. The first day was dominated by officials explaining the Farm to Fork and Green...
Global Flour Trade Has Changed
The U.S. was once the largest wheat flour exporter in the world followed by Canada, but that trade now belongs to a different part of the world – Southwest and Central Asia. Turkey and Kazakhstan are the #10 and #13 wheat producing countries, respectively, but together they control 37 per...
Maize Harder to Yield
Maize is harder to grow, or at least harder to grow well. Crop yields vary tremendously across the hundreds of countries where grown but the disparity is more notable for corn. For rice and wheat, the country with the 15th highest yield in these two crops is netting over 60 percent of the yield...
Water Investment
The extremely dry conditions in Argentina illustrate the low level of irrigation in many countries around the world. In terms of number of irrigated hectares, China is number one, followed by India and then the U.S. However, on a percent share of total agricultural land, Japan is by far number...
Biden Trade Policy
President-Elect Joe Biden has not yet named his nominee to become U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) but there are plenty of breadcrumbs that suggest the person will be: 1) conventional; and 2) likely a former Obama Administration official. That has been the pattern for his other economic policy...
Agriculture’s Gig Workers; Final Acts – Part 1; No New Hazards; Geneva Squeeze
Agriculture’s Gig Workers A consortium of leftist, environmental and anti-meat activists is suing U.S. meat companies for marketing their products as produced by independent family farmers. The groups argue that due to the contracting system utilized, the meat is instead the output of cor...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Concern is rising for the Argentina wheat market after Brazil, the primary buyer of Argentine wheat, announced a tariff-free import quota of 750,000 MT of wheat from non-MERCOSUR origins. At the same time, the RECP free trade agreement might give Australia an advantage selling wheat to de...
Agriculture and RCEP
Asian leaders gather this Sunday to hopefully put the final touches on a trade agreement called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The negotiations have taken eight years and, as usual, the word comprehensive does not apply to agriculture. Likely exempt from tariff reductio...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Buys U.S. Soyoil; Shortage of Containers
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Last week was another good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans and soybean products. If the pace of sales and exports continue it could be a record export year for the U.S. soybean sector. Net export sales of soybeans in the week ending 29 October totaled 1,530,5...
Post-Trump Outcomes; Food but Not Income; Between Elephants
Post-Trump Outcomes Analysts in Washington are war gaming the possible aftermath of next Tuesday’s presidential election and finding nothing good. On the one hand, if Mr. Trump wins reelection, the “swamp” as he likes to call it, predicts a newly emboldened incumbent White Hou...
Denuded Logic; Tax Consequences
Denuded Logic A key argument by some Europeans in both opposing palm oil imports, voting against a trade agreement with Brazil, and seeking self-sufficiency in plant proteins is deforestation. Politicians are reminded that Brazil’s rainforests are the earth’s “lungs” and...
Biden Implications to Phase One; Inequitable Compensation; Apples and Oranges
Biden Implications to Phase One At this juncture, China needs soybeans, corn and other products, and the U.S. is currently the lowest cost supplier of some agricultural commodities. However, one question is how faithful will China be to Phase One purchasing obligations when other suppliers beco...
Worse than Agriculture
The agriculture sector is under strong criticism for its harm to the environment. Multilateral disciplines on agricultural subsidies are considered too weak, but at least they exist. The damage caused by subsidized fishing is less obvious to the layman because it lies under the sea. One study c...
Wheat-Rice Substitution
In the classic position of a wheat exporting nation, consumers that have traditionally consumed rice as a food grain ultimately become wheat consumers. This is true, but it can also be said that traditional wheat consumers eat more rice when given access to it. Southeast Asian countries l...
Experience versus Korea; Breaking the GMO Boundary
Experience versus Korea The runoff to be the next leader of the WTO is between Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and South Korea’s Yoo Myung-hee. Because of her successful career in a sister international institution, the World Bank, Ms. Okonjo-Iweala likely has stronger operational ski...
Pick Your Poison
Given China’s pork shortage and its concurrent sensitivity to imports, some have speculated that pork has been entering the country, or is poised to, via unofficial pathways. Many countries are talking about shortening supply chains and increasing self-sufficiency. Taiwan went the opposit...
Oilseed Highlights: Palm Oil Ban; Soy Export Sales; Argentine Export Taxes; Soybean Stocks
U.S. Bans Imports of Crude Palm Oil from Malaysian Company FGV Holdings The U.S. Government yesterday banned imports of crude palm oil from the Malaysian Firm FGV Holdings. The ban came after a year-long investigation by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency that revealed signs of...
Forex Contradictions; Good Consortiums; Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My!
Forex Contradictions President Donald Trump may not understand the complexities of currency valuations, but he knows their importance. His concurrent chastising of foreign governments for manipulating those values while making threats against the dollars’ worth not-withstanding. China has...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...
Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle
Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberalized trade. She called for settling the current bilateral disputes like Airbus/Boeing, plus working together on WTO reforms and China. That ma...
Rice Self-Sufficiency
It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire. Global rice trade hi...
Vertical Energy; Good News
Vertical Energy Temasek Holdings and Bayer announced an investment in vertical agriculture in Singapore. It should be noted that their focus is on producing and marketing seeds and not actual production. Vertical agriculture promises an escape from the variable of weather, but the addition of t...
Another Leader Down; Tipping Past Taipei; Energy Disruption
Another Leader Down The announcement that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzö Abe will resign to focus on a chronic health issue was a shock and could be disruptive. Abe ended Japan’s previous run of frequent turnover at the top and became the longest serving leader in history. His abilit...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Wants Biotech Oilseeds and Higher Oil Tariffs
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report was both positive and somewhat disappointing. Sales of soybeans for the upcoming marketing year were large, but not for 2019/20. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were disappointing. However, exports of soybeans and soymeal last week...
Harris on Food; Seasonal Produce Hearing; Pick Your Partner; Idle or Convert; Truth to Power
Harris on Food U.S. Senator Kamala Harris (D-California) is Mr. Biden’s selection for vice president on his ticket and she is your garden variety Democrat when it comes to agriculture. She advocates for farmworkers, domestic food assistance and is a co-sponsor of the Green New Deal. Perha...
Yield versus Exporting
U.S. corn farmers out-yield their competitors but then lose to the competition’s lower prices. Similarly, Vietnam has the highest rice yields in Southeast Asia but fails to compete with Thailand in exporting despite the latter having the smallest yield in the region. According to industry...
Beef Growth and Decline
Beef is expensive to produce, emits the most greenhouse gases, is highly cultural in some places and has a highly evolving demand structure. Over the past decade, consumption of beef in otherwise relatively large consuming Russia has declined the most of any of the top 20 countries. Note that t...
Building a Poultry Industry
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was in the news inspecting a new chicken farm and calling for improvements to an outdated poultry industry. Efficient poultry production involves processes and feed. The former may be easier than the latter given that country’s climate and geography, though...
USDA Reports: Protein Production Recovery, Global Trade Decline
Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast up from last month. Last month’s WASDE total beef, pork and broiler production estimate for 2020 was bumped up to be 0.05 percent greater than 2019. This month it is projected to be 1.7 percent ahead of last...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...