Total versus Change in Pork Consumption
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
Sino-Ag Developments
EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action to turn the economy around. Recent measures have included lowering the cash reserve requirements at banks so that more money is available for...
Sino-Ag Update
EconomyDeflation continues to be a problem with the Producer Price Index declining in November for the 26th month in a row. Consumer inflation was expected to increase 0.5 percent after rising 0.3 percent in October, but instead it rose by just 0.2 percent, a five-month low. Despite economic so...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Sino-Ag Roundup 2
Meat DemandChina is the largest consumer of meat, consuming 27 percent of world supplies and while pork has been the dominate choice, poultry demand has been on the rise along with beef. Poultry is winning due to price and its health halo, and beef is viewed as a premium product. The result is...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Sino-Ag Roundup
Trade WarDonald Trump hasn’t even been sworn into office and is already roiling currency markets. The yuan, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar all slid this week on Trump’s social media claim that he will add tariffs on these three countries unless they stem the flow of drugs and illegal aliens i...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Selloff Sinks Soyoil, Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Lower Ahead of Stocks Report
A surprise selloff in crude oil put heavy selling pressure on the CBOT soy complex on Thursday, with soyoil and soybeans scoring bearish reversals for the day. The weakness in the soy complex sent corn and wheat into the red as well, with traders unwilling to take more long risks heading into t...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades
The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to be purchasing up to 1.2 MMT (44 Mbu or 20 cargoes) of U.S. soybeans for October-November delivery, which put a bid under the market. Too, th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Wheat Retraces; Soyoil Surges
Wheat was the big gainer last week but this week it gave up most of those gains. And soyoil was last week’s biggest loser but it rose to the top this week. Lean hogs also staged a major reversal after losing 1.32 percent last week and then rising 4.1 percent this week. Where there...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally
Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises on Plains Dryness; Corn, Soybeans Sink in Pre-WASDE Trade
Trading at the CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with expectations for the WASDE differing significantly. For corn and soybeans, traders and analysts are all in on the bearish side of things while there is some growing positivity for the wheat markets. That was reflected in Tuesday’s trade with s...
Market Commentary: CBOT Prepares for September WASDE
The CBOT started the week with a mood that was decidedly oriented towards preparing for the September WASDE report. Volume and price action were relatively limited for the day and cattle futures were the surprise bullish leaders. In the grains, corn and soybeans pushed higher with the latter ma...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply on Bullish Technicals; China-Canada Trade War Looms
The CBOT was nearly uniformly higher following the U.S. Labor Day holiday with wheat, corn, and soybeans all scoring strong gains and meaningful bullish technical developments. There wasn’t a major fundamental catalyst for any of the markets, rather the day’s trade seemed to build u...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Export Sales, Weather; Wheat Follows Through on Reversal
Thursday and Friday are the last two days of the month with a three-day weekend present to kick off September, which helped create a “risk off” short covering tone in the markets. Consequently, the major CBOT ag markets were all higher for the day with additional fundamental develop...
Market Commentary: Wheat Continues Reversal; Corn Soy Fall on U.S. Weather
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures following through on Tuesday’s bullish technical reversal after Stats Canada forecast a 34-MMT all-wheat wheat crop, which was below traders’ expectations. That, combined with weather issues for some major wheat growing/exporting co...
Market Commentary: Little to Move the Market But it Moved Anyways
The only real market mover on this last trading day of the week was the Fed’s nod to rate cuts. It is still bearish in grains, and the soy complex continued its small rebound despite the prospect of record production. No doubt because of continued strong demand. It was the second da...
Cotton Market Basics and 2024/25 Outlook
Following recent client requests, WPI provides the following overview of the cotton market, its basic structure and recent trends, and a short outlook for MY 2024/25. Cotton Production World cotton production is highly concentrated with four countries (China, India, Brazil, and the...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Contract Lows; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Record Yields
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday with the Canadian rail workers strike and forecasts of record-breaking yields emboldening bears. Wheat futures scored new contract lows amid signs of weaker demand while corn and soybeans saw threats primarily from the ever-expanding production outlook for...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Balancing Offense and Defense; Border Measures; Economic Returns from Sport
Balancing Offense and Defense All growers of all crops are not necessarily competitive even in a large agriculture country. Major U.S. row crop growers have asked USTR to ensure that the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity (APEP) provide greater market access for their products. By con...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Make New Lows; Corn, Wheat Fall on WASDE Supply Expectations
The CBOT was once again mostly red for the day with traders preparing for the August WASDE and generally expecting large crops and ending stocks for the 2024/25 year. The Midwest weather remains nearly ideal for producing big crops, and the only real question is how harvested acreage will impac...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Weather, Crop Ratings; Wheat Firms on EU Worries
If Monday’s trade as all about the macro market meltdown, then Tuesday’s trade was about returning to normal. Global equity, bond, and currency markets mostly reversed course on Tuesday and pared back some of the massive losses they incurred over the past three trading sessions. Tha...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Caps Bearish Week; Cattle and Macro Meltdowns Continue
The CBOT saw some light short covering in corn, wheat, and soybeans develop after this week’s deeply bearish trade that brought new contract lows in all three commodities. There wasn’t a lot of bullish news, other than the continued hot weather forecast for the U.S. Midwest and conc...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Sink on Record Yield Chatter; Wheat Firms on Quality Worries
Corn, the soy complex, and cattle futures each saw extended weakness in Thursday’s CBOT trade with the crop markets coming under pressure from favorable weather conditions and forecasts for the U.S. There is increasing market chatter about record breaking yields for both corn and soybeans...
Market Commentary: Bears Concentrate on Soybeans, Wheat Scores Reversal
The CBOT started the week with a collapse in soybeans and the broader soy complex in early trade that pulled corn and wheat lower as well. Soybeans, soyoil, and wheat all scored new contract lows in the early selloff with funds eagerly extending their short positions. By the day’s end, ho...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Weather, Export Sales; Wheat Dips on Yields, Exports
The headline for the CBOT on Thursday was the unexpected surge in soymeal export sales that boosted that market and new crop soybeans to strong gains for the day. Soymeal exports have been a prominent support for the market this year and their recent uptick after December futures fell to near $...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Funds Cover Shorts, Markets Forge Bottom?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with the strength originating from the soybean market and spilling over into corn and soybeans. The soybean market derived its strength from new forecasts of hot, dry weather for the U.S. Midwest as the soybean crop approaches pollination and pod filling...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Market Commentary: Bearishness Envelops CBOT Trade
The CBOT was sharply lower on Monday with markets seeing continued pressure from Friday’s generally bearish WASDE, favorable Midwest weather trends, and gains in the U.S. dollar following the weekend assassination attempt on former President Trump. The assassination attempt obviously does...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Weather Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hours. This extreme weather impacts various crops. For maize still standing in the field, the cold aids in drying and thus speeds up the harves...
Geopolitical Trade Substitution
Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the green pea trade was 37.9 percent in 2022, while Russia supplied 13.7 percent. Meanwhile, China is both the largest producer and importer of...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher Again; Cattle Find Pre-Holiday Support
Once again, the excitement at the CBOT was dominated by soyoil, which posted its fifth straight higher close amid rising trade tensions between Indonesia and China. The rally in soyoil – and the broader vegoil complex – helped push soybeans higher and at one point November soybeans...
Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?
CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout the day, which left wheat and soybeans to trade higher. Wheat found support from dryness in the Black Sea and smaller crop estimates for Russi...
Trade Spat Between China and EU
When President Biden announced higher Section 232 tariffs on a list of Chinese goods (see WPI 14 May) anxieties were raised over possible retaliation (see WPI 10 June). Right now, the EU is on the leading edge of the tariff tit-for-tat. Yesterday, China announced its Ministry of Commerce would...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Data Pressures CBOT; Hogs Collapse on Demand Worries
The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. There are certainly some areas of concern and potential for some acres to be planted to soybeans at the last minute, but the overall outlook is...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Determining how much wheat will be planted in Argentina is difficult. Production margins have gone from very bad to very good, thereby encouraging producers to change their minds about planting intentions. An increase in area is certain; in fact, the top market seed varieties are al...
Livestock Roundup: China Beef Market
China has just banned beef exports from the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado over ractopamine. A shipment of frozen omasum (the third stomach in a ruminant animal) tested positive in China for ractopamine, which is banned in China. Additionally, a cold storage facility in California, Cool Point O...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Tariffs: UCO No, Phosphate Yes
The Biden Administration just announced higher Section 301 tariffs on a host of imports from China, after the statutory four-year review of those duties imposed by the Trump Administration. The new tariffs did not include the rumored increase for used cooking oil (UCO) that roiled soybean futur...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major floods. There are many dead, injured, and evacuated individuals. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 50 percent of the country's wheat pro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Hogs and Pigs in China
As WPI reported last Thursday, the number of breeding sows on 1 March was 6.016 million head, down 2 percent from year ago levels. Part of that reduction is being offset by continued records in pigs per little, which in the December to February quarter reached 11.53 head. Herd culli...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
Market Commentary: Short Run Bulls Battle Long Run Bears
The CBOT is fighting a battle between improving short run technicals and bearish long run fundamentals, which is apt to keep the market choppy heading into planting season. Technical traders won Monday’s battle in the grains at least, with corn and wheat pushing higher and the latter scor...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
Market Commentary: Interesting Trade Despite Few WASDE Changes
The CBOT posted interesting developments on Friday, even while the March WASDE report failed to offer the same intrigue. The USDA’s latest look at U.S. and world supply and demand fundamentals was largely a “steady as she goes” affair with few significant changes. Despite the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Hail in India; Corn, Soy Turn Higher on Technical Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with unexpected hail and rain damage to India’s wheat crop lifting world wheat markets while corn and soybeans followed through on last week’s supportive technical trade. Funds were net buyers across the CBOT for the day despite holding a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is going through a challenging time in Argentina. The decline in prices, both in the local and export markets, has been constant over the last few months and has pushed values to levels that are very difficult for producers to absorb. Currently, in the local market, transactions are...
Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues as CBOT Contemplates Record Fund Short Position
Tuesday’s mood at the CBOT seemed to be one primarily of consolidation and mild short covering. Corn futures extended Monday’s key reversal but failed to make much upside progress while the soybean market settled lower after posting 16-cent gains in early trade. Wheat futures pushed...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Following the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, expectations for increased soybean demand from China were not met, resulting in a lower-than-anticipated purchase volume. There was still some activity, however, and last week Brazil saw movement for March...
More China Pork
As noted yesterday, China’s pork imports appear to have recently turned higher despite supposedly over-abundant and under-valued domestic supplies. In an article about the over-supply of pork in the U.S. market, the Wall Street Journal cited declining sales to China during the first 11 mo...
China’s Pork Dilemma
When African Swine Fever (ASW) struck China late last decade, animals were euthanized and actual swine numbers fell from their high by nearly 38 percent. Meanwhile, pork imports understandably rose dramatically to fill the void and consumer demand. Imports fell as the domestic herd recovered. D...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Market Commentary: A Day of New Numbers
It might have been a day of big surprises given the number of new crop estimates being issued around the world. Governments in China, Brazil, Canada, and the U.S. all issued new forecasts, but the overall changes were relatively small. The result was a mixed day in U.S. futures markets. Volume...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls on Early Selling; Wheat Continues Sideways March; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ag markets spent most of Tuesday preparing for the coming February WASDE report with funds and commercials adjusting positions. Wheat futures saw mild strength amid their relentless grid sideways while the soy complex found some upside traction in follow-through trade from Monday&rsquo...
Market Commentary: China Economic Worries Shake Grain Markets, Soybeans End Below $12, Corn at $4.40
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with commodity and macroeconomic markets under pressure from bearish economic news in China. Over the weekend, a court ordered China’s largest real estate developer, Evergrande, to liquidate amid the ongoing bankruptcy. That sent bearish ripples...
Market Commentary: China Approval of Argentine Wheat Snaps Futures’ Winning Streak; Livestock Rally Accelerates
Grain/oilseed and livestock markets are currently headed in diverging directions – with commodities involving plants and tractors falling while commodities eating said plants rallying sharply. Soybeans were the downside leader at the CBOT after the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the Arg...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on China Buying Rumors, Spring Acres Estimates; Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly higher at midweek with grains – particularly wheat – leading the rally. Market chatter suggests China has returned to the U.S. to book SRW wheat, though we cannot find confirmation of such trades yet. Even so, the words “China buying” will create a ra...
Market Commentary: CBOT Higher on Short Covering, Bull Spreading; Hogs Post Technical Rally
The CBOT finished higher for the day with traders increasingly engaging in bottom-picking and hopeful that last week saw the grain market develop its near-term and seasonal lows. Grain and oilseed markets started the day session with noted strength, but only soybeans, soymeal, and KC wheat coul...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Still Bouncing
Thursday saw the start of a “dead cat bounce” for many oversold CBOT futures contracts, and that trend continued Friday. Corn and wheat futures finished higher for the day but posted the gains on unconvincing volume and with little in the way of meaningful technical developments. Th...
China Pork and Beans
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reports that pork production increased 4.6 percent in 2023 to 57.94 MMT. This makes the fourth consecutive year of production increases since the trough of 2019 at the height of the African Swine Fever outbreak. Over 80 percent of soybeans in China ar...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. soybean price by 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents. Global soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Bread Baskets
Import dependence for food rankles most politicians since they have persistently fed a nationalistic feedback loop on the issue to their constituents. No one is demanding that their television sets be manufactured locally, but food is national security and others can’t be trusted. This is...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy and Macroeconomic Update There is discomfort among farmers in the Argentine countryside. The newly inaugurated Milei administration promised during its campaign measures that would favor producers, but for the moment is not fully keeping its word. Although the changes to the exchange rat...
Russian Agriculture Enigma; Imbalanced Analysis
Russian Agriculture Enigma Among the many elections this year is Russia’s during 15-17 March. Vladimir Putin will be overwhelmingly elected. He has been effectively in control of the country for 23 years. Andrei Kolesnikov at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says that Russia...
Livestock Roundup: Hog and Pork Restructing in China
China is in its holiday season; first was the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year, on 22 December. Next is the Lunar New Year which begins on 10 February. Both traditionally mark seasonal demand for pork. We know that last year, after extended COVID lockdowns through 2022, the 2023 Lu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs like seeds, fertilizers, chemicals, spare parts, and western equipment. In an effort to help, the government provided subsidies to farmers a...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Slide Sideways; Wheat, Cattle Extend Rallies
Trade at the CBOT was mostly a low-volume affair heading into the weekend and there was a growing sense that, except for wheat and cattle, most of the week’s activity had already been completed. The soy complex was mixed as soybeans and soymeal were mostly lower while soyoil rallied on te...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT a year ago. The information from the Ministry is delayed and is usually adjusted several times. Wheat was reportedly harvested from 29.1 Mha...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Pulls Soy Complex Lower; Wheat Rises on Growing Demand
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In contrast, the wheat market managed to shrug off Monday’s dramatic declines and push higher with signs that world demand is starting to in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Policy and Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s trading last week was shortened due to a national holiday on Friday. At the same time, it was the week before the newly elected President took office on Sunday, and expectations of a dramatically different approach to...
Livestock Roundup: China Hog and Pork Situation
CME cattle futures have grabbed the attention in the U.S., but in China, hog futures are the focus. January hog futures on the Dalian exchange are at a new contract low of ¥14.07/kg which is down about 4 percent. March futures are down about 3 percent with higher volume and a 10 percent dec...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Cattle Find New Contract Lows
The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export sales to China, which boosted wheat futures initially, but there was a subsequent sense of reluctance to exit profitable short positions ahea...
Market Commentary: Second Day of SRW Sales to China Boosts Wheat; Pre-WASDE Consolidation Begins
Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upside leader for the past several sessions as a combination of growing bullish fundamentals and aggressive fund short covering lift the market...
Total versus Change in Pork Consumption
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
Sino-Ag Developments
EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action to turn the economy around. Recent measures have included lowering the cash reserve requirements at banks so that more money is available for...
Sino-Ag Update
EconomyDeflation continues to be a problem with the Producer Price Index declining in November for the 26th month in a row. Consumer inflation was expected to increase 0.5 percent after rising 0.3 percent in October, but instead it rose by just 0.2 percent, a five-month low. Despite economic so...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Sino-Ag Roundup 2
Meat DemandChina is the largest consumer of meat, consuming 27 percent of world supplies and while pork has been the dominate choice, poultry demand has been on the rise along with beef. Poultry is winning due to price and its health halo, and beef is viewed as a premium product. The result is...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Sino-Ag Roundup
Trade WarDonald Trump hasn’t even been sworn into office and is already roiling currency markets. The yuan, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar all slid this week on Trump’s social media claim that he will add tariffs on these three countries unless they stem the flow of drugs and illegal aliens i...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Selloff Sinks Soyoil, Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Lower Ahead of Stocks Report
A surprise selloff in crude oil put heavy selling pressure on the CBOT soy complex on Thursday, with soyoil and soybeans scoring bearish reversals for the day. The weakness in the soy complex sent corn and wheat into the red as well, with traders unwilling to take more long risks heading into t...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades
The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to be purchasing up to 1.2 MMT (44 Mbu or 20 cargoes) of U.S. soybeans for October-November delivery, which put a bid under the market. Too, th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Wheat Retraces; Soyoil Surges
Wheat was the big gainer last week but this week it gave up most of those gains. And soyoil was last week’s biggest loser but it rose to the top this week. Lean hogs also staged a major reversal after losing 1.32 percent last week and then rising 4.1 percent this week. Where there...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally
Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises on Plains Dryness; Corn, Soybeans Sink in Pre-WASDE Trade
Trading at the CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with expectations for the WASDE differing significantly. For corn and soybeans, traders and analysts are all in on the bearish side of things while there is some growing positivity for the wheat markets. That was reflected in Tuesday’s trade with s...
Market Commentary: CBOT Prepares for September WASDE
The CBOT started the week with a mood that was decidedly oriented towards preparing for the September WASDE report. Volume and price action were relatively limited for the day and cattle futures were the surprise bullish leaders. In the grains, corn and soybeans pushed higher with the latter ma...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply on Bullish Technicals; China-Canada Trade War Looms
The CBOT was nearly uniformly higher following the U.S. Labor Day holiday with wheat, corn, and soybeans all scoring strong gains and meaningful bullish technical developments. There wasn’t a major fundamental catalyst for any of the markets, rather the day’s trade seemed to build u...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Export Sales, Weather; Wheat Follows Through on Reversal
Thursday and Friday are the last two days of the month with a three-day weekend present to kick off September, which helped create a “risk off” short covering tone in the markets. Consequently, the major CBOT ag markets were all higher for the day with additional fundamental develop...
Market Commentary: Wheat Continues Reversal; Corn Soy Fall on U.S. Weather
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures following through on Tuesday’s bullish technical reversal after Stats Canada forecast a 34-MMT all-wheat wheat crop, which was below traders’ expectations. That, combined with weather issues for some major wheat growing/exporting co...
Market Commentary: Little to Move the Market But it Moved Anyways
The only real market mover on this last trading day of the week was the Fed’s nod to rate cuts. It is still bearish in grains, and the soy complex continued its small rebound despite the prospect of record production. No doubt because of continued strong demand. It was the second da...
Cotton Market Basics and 2024/25 Outlook
Following recent client requests, WPI provides the following overview of the cotton market, its basic structure and recent trends, and a short outlook for MY 2024/25. Cotton Production World cotton production is highly concentrated with four countries (China, India, Brazil, and the...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Contract Lows; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Record Yields
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday with the Canadian rail workers strike and forecasts of record-breaking yields emboldening bears. Wheat futures scored new contract lows amid signs of weaker demand while corn and soybeans saw threats primarily from the ever-expanding production outlook for...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Balancing Offense and Defense; Border Measures; Economic Returns from Sport
Balancing Offense and Defense All growers of all crops are not necessarily competitive even in a large agriculture country. Major U.S. row crop growers have asked USTR to ensure that the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity (APEP) provide greater market access for their products. By con...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Make New Lows; Corn, Wheat Fall on WASDE Supply Expectations
The CBOT was once again mostly red for the day with traders preparing for the August WASDE and generally expecting large crops and ending stocks for the 2024/25 year. The Midwest weather remains nearly ideal for producing big crops, and the only real question is how harvested acreage will impac...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Weather, Crop Ratings; Wheat Firms on EU Worries
If Monday’s trade as all about the macro market meltdown, then Tuesday’s trade was about returning to normal. Global equity, bond, and currency markets mostly reversed course on Tuesday and pared back some of the massive losses they incurred over the past three trading sessions. Tha...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Caps Bearish Week; Cattle and Macro Meltdowns Continue
The CBOT saw some light short covering in corn, wheat, and soybeans develop after this week’s deeply bearish trade that brought new contract lows in all three commodities. There wasn’t a lot of bullish news, other than the continued hot weather forecast for the U.S. Midwest and conc...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Sink on Record Yield Chatter; Wheat Firms on Quality Worries
Corn, the soy complex, and cattle futures each saw extended weakness in Thursday’s CBOT trade with the crop markets coming under pressure from favorable weather conditions and forecasts for the U.S. There is increasing market chatter about record breaking yields for both corn and soybeans...
Market Commentary: Bears Concentrate on Soybeans, Wheat Scores Reversal
The CBOT started the week with a collapse in soybeans and the broader soy complex in early trade that pulled corn and wheat lower as well. Soybeans, soyoil, and wheat all scored new contract lows in the early selloff with funds eagerly extending their short positions. By the day’s end, ho...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Weather, Export Sales; Wheat Dips on Yields, Exports
The headline for the CBOT on Thursday was the unexpected surge in soymeal export sales that boosted that market and new crop soybeans to strong gains for the day. Soymeal exports have been a prominent support for the market this year and their recent uptick after December futures fell to near $...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Funds Cover Shorts, Markets Forge Bottom?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with the strength originating from the soybean market and spilling over into corn and soybeans. The soybean market derived its strength from new forecasts of hot, dry weather for the U.S. Midwest as the soybean crop approaches pollination and pod filling...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Market Commentary: Bearishness Envelops CBOT Trade
The CBOT was sharply lower on Monday with markets seeing continued pressure from Friday’s generally bearish WASDE, favorable Midwest weather trends, and gains in the U.S. dollar following the weekend assassination attempt on former President Trump. The assassination attempt obviously does...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Weather Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hours. This extreme weather impacts various crops. For maize still standing in the field, the cold aids in drying and thus speeds up the harves...
Geopolitical Trade Substitution
Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the green pea trade was 37.9 percent in 2022, while Russia supplied 13.7 percent. Meanwhile, China is both the largest producer and importer of...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher Again; Cattle Find Pre-Holiday Support
Once again, the excitement at the CBOT was dominated by soyoil, which posted its fifth straight higher close amid rising trade tensions between Indonesia and China. The rally in soyoil – and the broader vegoil complex – helped push soybeans higher and at one point November soybeans...
Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?
CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout the day, which left wheat and soybeans to trade higher. Wheat found support from dryness in the Black Sea and smaller crop estimates for Russi...
Trade Spat Between China and EU
When President Biden announced higher Section 232 tariffs on a list of Chinese goods (see WPI 14 May) anxieties were raised over possible retaliation (see WPI 10 June). Right now, the EU is on the leading edge of the tariff tit-for-tat. Yesterday, China announced its Ministry of Commerce would...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Data Pressures CBOT; Hogs Collapse on Demand Worries
The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. There are certainly some areas of concern and potential for some acres to be planted to soybeans at the last minute, but the overall outlook is...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Determining how much wheat will be planted in Argentina is difficult. Production margins have gone from very bad to very good, thereby encouraging producers to change their minds about planting intentions. An increase in area is certain; in fact, the top market seed varieties are al...
Livestock Roundup: China Beef Market
China has just banned beef exports from the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado over ractopamine. A shipment of frozen omasum (the third stomach in a ruminant animal) tested positive in China for ractopamine, which is banned in China. Additionally, a cold storage facility in California, Cool Point O...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Tariffs: UCO No, Phosphate Yes
The Biden Administration just announced higher Section 301 tariffs on a host of imports from China, after the statutory four-year review of those duties imposed by the Trump Administration. The new tariffs did not include the rumored increase for used cooking oil (UCO) that roiled soybean futur...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major floods. There are many dead, injured, and evacuated individuals. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 50 percent of the country's wheat pro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Hogs and Pigs in China
As WPI reported last Thursday, the number of breeding sows on 1 March was 6.016 million head, down 2 percent from year ago levels. Part of that reduction is being offset by continued records in pigs per little, which in the December to February quarter reached 11.53 head. Herd culli...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
Market Commentary: Short Run Bulls Battle Long Run Bears
The CBOT is fighting a battle between improving short run technicals and bearish long run fundamentals, which is apt to keep the market choppy heading into planting season. Technical traders won Monday’s battle in the grains at least, with corn and wheat pushing higher and the latter scor...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
Market Commentary: Interesting Trade Despite Few WASDE Changes
The CBOT posted interesting developments on Friday, even while the March WASDE report failed to offer the same intrigue. The USDA’s latest look at U.S. and world supply and demand fundamentals was largely a “steady as she goes” affair with few significant changes. Despite the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Hail in India; Corn, Soy Turn Higher on Technical Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with unexpected hail and rain damage to India’s wheat crop lifting world wheat markets while corn and soybeans followed through on last week’s supportive technical trade. Funds were net buyers across the CBOT for the day despite holding a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is going through a challenging time in Argentina. The decline in prices, both in the local and export markets, has been constant over the last few months and has pushed values to levels that are very difficult for producers to absorb. Currently, in the local market, transactions are...
Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues as CBOT Contemplates Record Fund Short Position
Tuesday’s mood at the CBOT seemed to be one primarily of consolidation and mild short covering. Corn futures extended Monday’s key reversal but failed to make much upside progress while the soybean market settled lower after posting 16-cent gains in early trade. Wheat futures pushed...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Following the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, expectations for increased soybean demand from China were not met, resulting in a lower-than-anticipated purchase volume. There was still some activity, however, and last week Brazil saw movement for March...
More China Pork
As noted yesterday, China’s pork imports appear to have recently turned higher despite supposedly over-abundant and under-valued domestic supplies. In an article about the over-supply of pork in the U.S. market, the Wall Street Journal cited declining sales to China during the first 11 mo...
China’s Pork Dilemma
When African Swine Fever (ASW) struck China late last decade, animals were euthanized and actual swine numbers fell from their high by nearly 38 percent. Meanwhile, pork imports understandably rose dramatically to fill the void and consumer demand. Imports fell as the domestic herd recovered. D...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Market Commentary: A Day of New Numbers
It might have been a day of big surprises given the number of new crop estimates being issued around the world. Governments in China, Brazil, Canada, and the U.S. all issued new forecasts, but the overall changes were relatively small. The result was a mixed day in U.S. futures markets. Volume...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls on Early Selling; Wheat Continues Sideways March; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ag markets spent most of Tuesday preparing for the coming February WASDE report with funds and commercials adjusting positions. Wheat futures saw mild strength amid their relentless grid sideways while the soy complex found some upside traction in follow-through trade from Monday&rsquo...
Market Commentary: China Economic Worries Shake Grain Markets, Soybeans End Below $12, Corn at $4.40
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with commodity and macroeconomic markets under pressure from bearish economic news in China. Over the weekend, a court ordered China’s largest real estate developer, Evergrande, to liquidate amid the ongoing bankruptcy. That sent bearish ripples...
Market Commentary: China Approval of Argentine Wheat Snaps Futures’ Winning Streak; Livestock Rally Accelerates
Grain/oilseed and livestock markets are currently headed in diverging directions – with commodities involving plants and tractors falling while commodities eating said plants rallying sharply. Soybeans were the downside leader at the CBOT after the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the Arg...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on China Buying Rumors, Spring Acres Estimates; Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly higher at midweek with grains – particularly wheat – leading the rally. Market chatter suggests China has returned to the U.S. to book SRW wheat, though we cannot find confirmation of such trades yet. Even so, the words “China buying” will create a ra...
Market Commentary: CBOT Higher on Short Covering, Bull Spreading; Hogs Post Technical Rally
The CBOT finished higher for the day with traders increasingly engaging in bottom-picking and hopeful that last week saw the grain market develop its near-term and seasonal lows. Grain and oilseed markets started the day session with noted strength, but only soybeans, soymeal, and KC wheat coul...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Still Bouncing
Thursday saw the start of a “dead cat bounce” for many oversold CBOT futures contracts, and that trend continued Friday. Corn and wheat futures finished higher for the day but posted the gains on unconvincing volume and with little in the way of meaningful technical developments. Th...
China Pork and Beans
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reports that pork production increased 4.6 percent in 2023 to 57.94 MMT. This makes the fourth consecutive year of production increases since the trough of 2019 at the height of the African Swine Fever outbreak. Over 80 percent of soybeans in China ar...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. soybean price by 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents. Global soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Bread Baskets
Import dependence for food rankles most politicians since they have persistently fed a nationalistic feedback loop on the issue to their constituents. No one is demanding that their television sets be manufactured locally, but food is national security and others can’t be trusted. This is...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy and Macroeconomic Update There is discomfort among farmers in the Argentine countryside. The newly inaugurated Milei administration promised during its campaign measures that would favor producers, but for the moment is not fully keeping its word. Although the changes to the exchange rat...
Russian Agriculture Enigma; Imbalanced Analysis
Russian Agriculture Enigma Among the many elections this year is Russia’s during 15-17 March. Vladimir Putin will be overwhelmingly elected. He has been effectively in control of the country for 23 years. Andrei Kolesnikov at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says that Russia...
Livestock Roundup: Hog and Pork Restructing in China
China is in its holiday season; first was the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year, on 22 December. Next is the Lunar New Year which begins on 10 February. Both traditionally mark seasonal demand for pork. We know that last year, after extended COVID lockdowns through 2022, the 2023 Lu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs like seeds, fertilizers, chemicals, spare parts, and western equipment. In an effort to help, the government provided subsidies to farmers a...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Slide Sideways; Wheat, Cattle Extend Rallies
Trade at the CBOT was mostly a low-volume affair heading into the weekend and there was a growing sense that, except for wheat and cattle, most of the week’s activity had already been completed. The soy complex was mixed as soybeans and soymeal were mostly lower while soyoil rallied on te...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT a year ago. The information from the Ministry is delayed and is usually adjusted several times. Wheat was reportedly harvested from 29.1 Mha...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Pulls Soy Complex Lower; Wheat Rises on Growing Demand
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In contrast, the wheat market managed to shrug off Monday’s dramatic declines and push higher with signs that world demand is starting to in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Policy and Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s trading last week was shortened due to a national holiday on Friday. At the same time, it was the week before the newly elected President took office on Sunday, and expectations of a dramatically different approach to...
Livestock Roundup: China Hog and Pork Situation
CME cattle futures have grabbed the attention in the U.S., but in China, hog futures are the focus. January hog futures on the Dalian exchange are at a new contract low of ¥14.07/kg which is down about 4 percent. March futures are down about 3 percent with higher volume and a 10 percent dec...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Cattle Find New Contract Lows
The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export sales to China, which boosted wheat futures initially, but there was a subsequent sense of reluctance to exit profitable short positions ahea...
Market Commentary: Second Day of SRW Sales to China Boosts Wheat; Pre-WASDE Consolidation Begins
Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upside leader for the past several sessions as a combination of growing bullish fundamentals and aggressive fund short covering lift the market...