Market Commentary: Strong Friday and an Upward Bound Week
If yesterday’s trading looked like uncertainty ultimately succumbing to the bulls, today’s trading opened with the bears fully in charge. Contracts opened lower and mostly stayed that way until late morning when there appeared to be an epiphany with the bulls and they took charge. I...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Margins Set to Rise; China Soymeal Prices Remain Weak
The Market U.S. soybean prices have mostly been treading water these past few weeks with neither bulls nor bears able to get the upper hand for more than a few days. Continued trade war worries and challenges building negotiations between the U.S. and China have contributed to recent weak...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 June)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App **** Note: After our recent website update, we're having difficulty correctly linking the app to this page. Until we get this fixed, please visit the app directly via the link below. *** https://worldperspectives.shinyapps.io/Combined_FOB_Price_...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with only 40 percent of the total area harvested so far. The delay is no longer primarily due to the soybean harvest but is now driven by persistent high grain moisture and excess water in many fields. The m...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable weather for the most part is leading to big crops. Conab raised its soybean estimate to 169 MMT, now just 1 MMT below USDA. The Wheat Qualit...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Corn - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies and total use: Higher ending stocks are expected to result from 15.8 billion bushels of corn production, up 6 percent from a year ago. Projected planted area of 95.3 million acres would be the highest in over a decade. The corn y...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, not only because the focus remains on soybeans — with more than 21 percent harvested in just one week — but also due to rains recorded in several areas. To date, 34 percent of the estimated corn area has b...
Market Commentary: Good Weather, Unknown Trading Relations, Positioned for Monday
It was another day of trading in the green in the overnight for grains and the soy complex only to fail following through in the day session for wheat and soymeal. All major ags opened higher but soymeal quickly reversed, and all three wheats headed south about an hour into the session. Monday&...
Oilseed Highlights: Markets Turn Lower on Growing Supply Expectations
The Market Soybean futures have mostly traded sideways over the past two weeks with trade policy uncertainty, favorable weather for the U.S. and South America, and as-expected export volumes minimizing the need for a major move. Soyoil has pulled back sharply amid weakness in crude oil an...
Market Commentary: Corn Firms on Surprise Export Demand; Soy Complex Drifts Lower
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday following Monday’s drubbing across the grains and oilseeds markets. Tuesday saw continued selling pressure in the soy complex as funds turn increasingly bearish amid a favorable supply outlook for 2025. The grains sector saw a bit more support with wheat risi...
Market Commentary: Corn Leads Grains Lower on Fund Selling; Cattle Hit New Highs Again
Except for the cattle markets, the CBOT was sharply lower to start the week with trade policy, favorable weather, and weak technicals and large noncommercial short positions weighing on market sentiment. Cattle futures managed to rise to new all-time highs after last week’s record-breakin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It was another very short trading week in Argentina, with Thursday and Friday being national holidays. Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with priority given to soybeans while farmers wait for grain moisture levels to drop in the central and southern parts o...
Cocoa Market Outlook: Prices Set to Cool as Production Increases
The outlook for the last half of the 2024/25 cocoa market is dominated by generally favorable weather and upward revisions to production estimates. Demand remains a major focal point as well with the U.S. tariffs and recession risk likely to upend consumption in the world’s second biggest...
Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Weak, Corn and Soybeans Hold Their Own
It was modest volume trading grain and oilseeds today. Again, the lack of any new fundamental news has traders keeping their powder dry. USDA’s May WASDE is likely to boost estimates for corn and soybean exports, but that is still nearly two weeks away. Instead, today’s...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Record Rally; Wheat Finds New Lows; Corn, Soyoil Collapse
The CBOT tried to rally overnight and posted some slight gains heading into the morning break, but thereafter the market quickly found selling pressure. Monday’s favorable Crop Progress and conditions report from USDA offered much of the justification for the selling pressure and helped s...
Market Commentary: Cattle Hit New Records while Wheat Hits New Lows; Planting in Focus
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with expectations of favorable planting progress in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report creating much of the pressure. Wheat was the big loser for the day with favorable weather in the major growing regions prompting a strong wave of selling f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn A week of favorable weather has given a strong boost to the summer crop harvest. As anticipated, farmers have already switched from corn to soybeans and are running their machines at full speed on soybeans, leaving corn aside. In fact, weekly corn harvest progress dropped...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product prices. The most obvious influence was the recent trade war and tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and, which was exacerbated...
Market Commentary: Markets Continue Rebound
Soybeans and corn rose in overnight trading on optimism about the de-escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest importer of the oilseeds. Both opened lower this morning but climbed out of the hole to end higher. Wheat closed lower overnight and opened that way this mornin...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Planting Pace, Weather, South American Outlook
The CBOT ended mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed through a slew of different data points. Perhaps the most influential news for the day was private crop analysts’ upward revisions to the Brazilian and Argentine corn crops, which combined with a strong start to planting the U.S. 2025 crop...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading under the new exchange rate regulations, so it took the markets a few days to adjust. Regarding the official exchange rate, it opened on Monday...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate, along with a unification of the official and financial exchange rates. The move includes the eli...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
WASDE Corn
Corn - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Update Argentina Faces Harvest Delays and Changing Trade Dynamics Corn harvest progress in Argentina was slow last week, with only 1 percentage point gained due to early-week rainfall. As a result, the total harvested area has reached 20 percent. With improved weather in recent days...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Continues to Face Weather Instability Argentina remains in a period of climate instability, with frequent heavy rains, strong winds, and occasional hail affecting some agricultural areas this week. Rainfall in the northern region – which had been suffering from low s...
Slow Soy Sales in Argentina Following Policy Changes
Argentine soybean farmers are selling their crop at the slowest pace in 10 years as producers bet on the likely effects of libertarian President Javier Milei’s actions on commodity markets, including a weakening of the peso and potential tax relief. The sales are a quarter below where the...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Thanks to a week of minimal rainfall across Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest is gaining momentum. Weekly progress reached 5.5 percentage points, bringing total harvest completion to 13 percent of the planted area, with an average yield of 8.27 MT/ha. In...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Harvest Progress and Crop Conditions Rain has slowed the corn harvest across much of Argentina’s central region, with progress advancing just 1.4 percentage points over the past week. So far, 8.1 percent of the national total has been harvested, surpassing last season’s pace by...
CONAB Forecasts Record Soybean Production
Brazilian soybean farmers will reap an even bigger crop in the 2024/25 season than previously expected, according to forecasts released by the Brazilian crop agency CONAB yesterday. Brazil's soybean crop, which farmers are harvesting now, is expected to total 167.37 MMT, about 1.3 M...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade Wars Continue to Drive Markets
The Market Of course, the big news in oilseed markets this past week has revolved around tariffs and retaliatory tariffs – most notably China and the EU’s reactions to President Trump’s new tariffs. Both China and the EU announced retaliatory tariffs that included additi...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The price estimates for meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged from last month – and the season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. USDA’s global corn outlook is for higher foreign corn production: Increases in India, Russia, and Uk...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent volatility in oilseed markets has caused the three legs of the U.S. soybean crush to see interesting and divergent dynamics in 2025. Soybean futures have seen steady pressure since early February as the advancing Brazilian harvest and concerns about retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trad...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Oilseed Highlights: Tariffs Rock Global Oilseed Complex
The Market The CBOT soy complex saw dramatic volatility over the past week due to the impact of U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China and China’s retaliatory tariffs against U.S. soybeans. The tariffs have yet to substantially alter trade flows, though export sales and ship...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas needing precipitation received some relief, particularly in the northern core region and western agricultural zones. Currently, soils in the co...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Market Commentary: Strong Friday and an Upward Bound Week
If yesterday’s trading looked like uncertainty ultimately succumbing to the bulls, today’s trading opened with the bears fully in charge. Contracts opened lower and mostly stayed that way until late morning when there appeared to be an epiphany with the bulls and they took charge. I...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Margins Set to Rise; China Soymeal Prices Remain Weak
The Market U.S. soybean prices have mostly been treading water these past few weeks with neither bulls nor bears able to get the upper hand for more than a few days. Continued trade war worries and challenges building negotiations between the U.S. and China have contributed to recent weak...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 June)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App **** Note: After our recent website update, we're having difficulty correctly linking the app to this page. Until we get this fixed, please visit the app directly via the link below. *** https://worldperspectives.shinyapps.io/Combined_FOB_Price_...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with only 40 percent of the total area harvested so far. The delay is no longer primarily due to the soybean harvest but is now driven by persistent high grain moisture and excess water in many fields. The m...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable weather for the most part is leading to big crops. Conab raised its soybean estimate to 169 MMT, now just 1 MMT below USDA. The Wheat Qualit...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Corn - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies and total use: Higher ending stocks are expected to result from 15.8 billion bushels of corn production, up 6 percent from a year ago. Projected planted area of 95.3 million acres would be the highest in over a decade. The corn y...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, not only because the focus remains on soybeans — with more than 21 percent harvested in just one week — but also due to rains recorded in several areas. To date, 34 percent of the estimated corn area has b...
Market Commentary: Good Weather, Unknown Trading Relations, Positioned for Monday
It was another day of trading in the green in the overnight for grains and the soy complex only to fail following through in the day session for wheat and soymeal. All major ags opened higher but soymeal quickly reversed, and all three wheats headed south about an hour into the session. Monday&...
Oilseed Highlights: Markets Turn Lower on Growing Supply Expectations
The Market Soybean futures have mostly traded sideways over the past two weeks with trade policy uncertainty, favorable weather for the U.S. and South America, and as-expected export volumes minimizing the need for a major move. Soyoil has pulled back sharply amid weakness in crude oil an...
Market Commentary: Corn Firms on Surprise Export Demand; Soy Complex Drifts Lower
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday following Monday’s drubbing across the grains and oilseeds markets. Tuesday saw continued selling pressure in the soy complex as funds turn increasingly bearish amid a favorable supply outlook for 2025. The grains sector saw a bit more support with wheat risi...
Market Commentary: Corn Leads Grains Lower on Fund Selling; Cattle Hit New Highs Again
Except for the cattle markets, the CBOT was sharply lower to start the week with trade policy, favorable weather, and weak technicals and large noncommercial short positions weighing on market sentiment. Cattle futures managed to rise to new all-time highs after last week’s record-breakin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It was another very short trading week in Argentina, with Thursday and Friday being national holidays. Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with priority given to soybeans while farmers wait for grain moisture levels to drop in the central and southern parts o...
Cocoa Market Outlook: Prices Set to Cool as Production Increases
The outlook for the last half of the 2024/25 cocoa market is dominated by generally favorable weather and upward revisions to production estimates. Demand remains a major focal point as well with the U.S. tariffs and recession risk likely to upend consumption in the world’s second biggest...
Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Weak, Corn and Soybeans Hold Their Own
It was modest volume trading grain and oilseeds today. Again, the lack of any new fundamental news has traders keeping their powder dry. USDA’s May WASDE is likely to boost estimates for corn and soybean exports, but that is still nearly two weeks away. Instead, today’s...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Record Rally; Wheat Finds New Lows; Corn, Soyoil Collapse
The CBOT tried to rally overnight and posted some slight gains heading into the morning break, but thereafter the market quickly found selling pressure. Monday’s favorable Crop Progress and conditions report from USDA offered much of the justification for the selling pressure and helped s...
Market Commentary: Cattle Hit New Records while Wheat Hits New Lows; Planting in Focus
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with expectations of favorable planting progress in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report creating much of the pressure. Wheat was the big loser for the day with favorable weather in the major growing regions prompting a strong wave of selling f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn A week of favorable weather has given a strong boost to the summer crop harvest. As anticipated, farmers have already switched from corn to soybeans and are running their machines at full speed on soybeans, leaving corn aside. In fact, weekly corn harvest progress dropped...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product prices. The most obvious influence was the recent trade war and tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and, which was exacerbated...
Market Commentary: Markets Continue Rebound
Soybeans and corn rose in overnight trading on optimism about the de-escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest importer of the oilseeds. Both opened lower this morning but climbed out of the hole to end higher. Wheat closed lower overnight and opened that way this mornin...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Planting Pace, Weather, South American Outlook
The CBOT ended mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed through a slew of different data points. Perhaps the most influential news for the day was private crop analysts’ upward revisions to the Brazilian and Argentine corn crops, which combined with a strong start to planting the U.S. 2025 crop...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading under the new exchange rate regulations, so it took the markets a few days to adjust. Regarding the official exchange rate, it opened on Monday...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate, along with a unification of the official and financial exchange rates. The move includes the eli...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
WASDE Corn
Corn - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Update Argentina Faces Harvest Delays and Changing Trade Dynamics Corn harvest progress in Argentina was slow last week, with only 1 percentage point gained due to early-week rainfall. As a result, the total harvested area has reached 20 percent. With improved weather in recent days...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Continues to Face Weather Instability Argentina remains in a period of climate instability, with frequent heavy rains, strong winds, and occasional hail affecting some agricultural areas this week. Rainfall in the northern region – which had been suffering from low s...
Slow Soy Sales in Argentina Following Policy Changes
Argentine soybean farmers are selling their crop at the slowest pace in 10 years as producers bet on the likely effects of libertarian President Javier Milei’s actions on commodity markets, including a weakening of the peso and potential tax relief. The sales are a quarter below where the...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Thanks to a week of minimal rainfall across Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest is gaining momentum. Weekly progress reached 5.5 percentage points, bringing total harvest completion to 13 percent of the planted area, with an average yield of 8.27 MT/ha. In...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Harvest Progress and Crop Conditions Rain has slowed the corn harvest across much of Argentina’s central region, with progress advancing just 1.4 percentage points over the past week. So far, 8.1 percent of the national total has been harvested, surpassing last season’s pace by...
CONAB Forecasts Record Soybean Production
Brazilian soybean farmers will reap an even bigger crop in the 2024/25 season than previously expected, according to forecasts released by the Brazilian crop agency CONAB yesterday. Brazil's soybean crop, which farmers are harvesting now, is expected to total 167.37 MMT, about 1.3 M...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade Wars Continue to Drive Markets
The Market Of course, the big news in oilseed markets this past week has revolved around tariffs and retaliatory tariffs – most notably China and the EU’s reactions to President Trump’s new tariffs. Both China and the EU announced retaliatory tariffs that included additi...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The price estimates for meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged from last month – and the season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. USDA’s global corn outlook is for higher foreign corn production: Increases in India, Russia, and Uk...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent volatility in oilseed markets has caused the three legs of the U.S. soybean crush to see interesting and divergent dynamics in 2025. Soybean futures have seen steady pressure since early February as the advancing Brazilian harvest and concerns about retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trad...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Oilseed Highlights: Tariffs Rock Global Oilseed Complex
The Market The CBOT soy complex saw dramatic volatility over the past week due to the impact of U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China and China’s retaliatory tariffs against U.S. soybeans. The tariffs have yet to substantially alter trade flows, though export sales and ship...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas needing precipitation received some relief, particularly in the northern core region and western agricultural zones. Currently, soils in the co...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...