Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent volatility in oilseed markets has caused the three legs of the U.S. soybean crush to see interesting and divergent dynamics in 2025. Soybean futures have seen steady pressure since early February as the advancing Brazilian harvest and concerns about retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trad...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 7 March)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 7 March 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry-bulk freight markets gave back most of last week’s gains this week as the U.S. political and tariff situation has cast markets and traders into great confusion. Trade and economic outlo...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Oilseed Highlights: Tariffs Rock Global Oilseed Complex
The Market The CBOT soy complex saw dramatic volatility over the past week due to the impact of U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China and China’s retaliatory tariffs against U.S. soybeans. The tariffs have yet to substantially alter trade flows, though export sales and ship...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas needing precipitation received some relief, particularly in the northern core region and western agricultural zones. Currently, soils in the co...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Oilseed Highlights: Strong Vegoil Markets Support Oilseeds
The Market The major action in global oilseed markets this past week has been in the vegoil realm, where tightening global supplies have pushed prices higher. In turn, oilseed markets, including those for soybeans and rapeseed/canola, have been mostly steady as the advancing Brazilian har...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
WASDE Soybeans - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of soybeans for the 2024/25 season. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound. The projection for global endi...
WASDE Corn - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of corn for the 2024/25 season. The projected season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. ...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The projection for global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 was lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 mill...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Significant rainfall fell across almost the entire Argentine agricultural region last week, with the highest accumulations in the core corn and soybean areas. These rains followed weeks of intense drought and high temperatures. Soil moisture maps show substantial improvements in the nucleu...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...
Market Commentary: Volatile As Long As Tariffs Are Uncertain
The big news in the ag commodity markets Wednesday was the pullback in soybean futures as traders remain wary of the political tensions and tariff developments between Washington and Beijing. If this doesn’t sound like a major news story, you’d be correct, but this was about as even...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Tariff Relief; Cattle Selloff Extends to Second Day
Markets were encouraged by the fact both Canada and Mexico were able to secure 30-day delays on Trump’s tariff plans, which offers hope the duties are indeed a negotiating tactic rather than a steadfast policy platform. The big issue remains the 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and Chi...
Market Commentary: Tariff Whiplash
News of President Trump’s tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada drove the agricultural and macroeconomic markets on Monday with seemingly every tick, dip, and rally stemming from political factors. Over the weekend, President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods as well...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The reduction in export taxes has not yet had the expected impact of boosting farmer sales of grain and soybeans. The main issue is that price transmission has not been fully realized, primarily because exporters oppose the requirement to bring foreign currency into the countr...
Market Commentary: Tariffs More Than Weather
President Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow eclipsed concerns about South American weather and sent much of the agricultural futures complex into the red on Friday. Both countries will retaliate with Canada saying it will be...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day with Wheat Hot, The Rest Not
Today’s trading session pretty much followed the overnight with wheat notching a third day of gains but traders taking a breather on corn, beans, and cattle. While wheat is girded by doubtful moisture conditions in the northern Black Sea region, the corn and soybean markets do not want to...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Lead CBOT Higher; Cattle Correct Ahead of Inventory Report
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday due to the bullish influences of wheat and corn. The two grains saw support from Black Sea and South American weather impacts, respectively, with production outlooks for both regions falling. That put futures in a bullish mood with funds expanding net lon...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Tariff Threats Ease; Cattle Surge to New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-tat trade war over the weekend. Sunday saw both the U.S. and Colombian presidents threaten each other’s country with 25 percent tariffs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The state of agriculture in Argentina and the loss of export competitiveness become clearer when examined through recent data. The official inflation rate for December 2024 was reported at 2.7 percent, resulting in an accumulated inflation rate of 117.8 percent for 2024. During this period, the...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latter. There were new contract highs, again, in cattle. Overall weakness was blamed on Argentina’s announced lower tax rates on commodity...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still plenty of strength. Corn remains up about a nickel for the week, beans up more than 30-cents and while wheat dipped today, the large gains l...
Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake
Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than nothing, and something is all it takes to put brakes on a borderline market. The day’s trading closely tracked the overnight, with red showi...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather
The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as fully priced into futures, which left markets to return to trading the South American weather outlooks and export trends. Both of these facto...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatWith week-on-week progress of 3.5 percentage points, Argentina’s wheat harvest has reached 98 percent of the area and is nearing completion. Total production is expected to reach approximately 18.5 MMT.Markets have shown few updates, and local wheat prices remain nearly unchanged. As a res...
WASDE Soybeans Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for U.S. soybean production is down 95 million bushels to 4.366 billion bushels due to a 1 bushel per acre yield reduction – to average U.S. soybean yield of 50.7 bushels per acre. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, un...
WASDE Corn Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for reduced U.S. corn production at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million as a 3.8-bushel per acre cut in yield to 179.3. U.S. exports are cut 25 million bushels to 2.450 billion reflecting lower supplies. USDA notes that supply is falling more than use and the resul...
WASDE Wheat Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for unchanged U.S. wheat exports of 850 million bushels. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price of wheat is reduced by $0.05 per bushel to $5.55.World trade is 1.7 millio...
Oilseed Highlights
The Market Soybean futures have largely been waiting for the January WASDE report, which USDA will publish on today, with traders specifically focusing on the South American supply outlooks. The dry weather in Argentina has been largely offset by favorable conditions in Brazil, leaving the...
Market Commentary: Big Nothingburger
It was a good thing that futures markets closed early today given that there were very few inputs to guide movements. The U.S. government was closed in observance of President Jimmy Carter’s memorial, so reports like weekly Export Sales are delayed until tomorrow. Wall Street and the...
Market Commentary: Comfortable, With Jitters
There was generally low volume in grains today as traders await USDA’s important reports on Friday. There is no reason to spend more money on fees or commissions after spending several days aligning with the perceived outcomes. At the same time, market noise does not completely stop and there i...
Market Commentary: No Major Swings on More Positioning Ahead of WASDE
Corn opened lower but managed a quarter penny higher close, and hogs tried to follow cattle higher at the open but ended lower for a third session in a row, but the rest of the pack ended the day where it started with equally small changes.Fundamentals are helping corn, wheat and cattle, and so...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Precipitation Forecasts Fall
The CBOT tried – and mostly succeeded – to reverse Friday’s selloff with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all turning higher to start the first full trading week of 2025. The fundamental catalysts for the day’s strength were the slide in the U.S. dollar, thanks to more trade-friendly (or at lea...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
2025 Outlook Last year was extremely challenging for Argentine agriculture, with sharp declines in commodity prices exacerbating the situation in recent months. The exchange rate has shifted from approximately 800 ARS/USD to 1,030 ARS/USD, while high dollar inflation has significantly incr...
Market Commentary: New Year, Same Trend - Corn and Beans Higher, Wheat Not
Corn and soybeans opened lower but quickly shifted back to positive territory. All three wheats were lower in overnight trading and pretty much traded lower all during the day session. There was good volume trading in HRW, cattle and feeders. March feeder cattle hit a new contract high. Lean ho...
Market Commentary: Year End Rally in Corn and Beans
The day’s trading started out hum and glum. Corn and soybean contracts moved modestly like their overnight closes and stayed marginal for most of the day. Soyoil was continuing its recent mostly negative run. Wheat never went anywhere important, high or low. Then there was a breakout late...
Export Sales Bouy Grains; Argy Weather, Slow Exports Sink Soybeans
Grain markets were quiet in Friday’s overnight trade despite the bullish technical days they scored on Thursday. The Export Sales report – as one of the few fundamental updates available for the day – was influential in determining the grain markets’ direction for the day. That meant support fo...
Argentine Weather Emboldens CBOT Bulls
The CBOT found its way to higher ground on Thursday after an old-school hard opening with no overnight session to guide the market. Argentina’s weather is starting to become more impactful for grain futures as dryness persists into the mid-January forecast, which could disrupt early corn and so...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatOver the past seven days, the lack of rain allowed a 12.2-percentage-point increase in Argentina’s wheat harvest progress, which reached 76.1 percent of the area. Harvesting activities have focused on central and western Buenos Aires Province. Meanwhile, wheat commercialization and truck a...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest recorded a week-on-week progress of 15.8 percentage points and reached 63.9 percent of the total area. Yields remain generally good and, in some cases, surpass initial expectations, prompting upward revisions to production estimates. The market projects 18–1...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine wheat harvest has reached 48.1 percent of the expected area, with weekly progress of 9.4 percentage points, with efforts primarily focused in the central agricultural region. Standing crops are transitioning from late grain filling to physiological maturity, with 80.7 p...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
November Rainfall and Crop Impacts in ArgentinaRecent rains have brought significant rain accumulation for Argentina, with precipitation in November exceeding the historical monthly average in most areas. After three years of severe drought, the rainfall is a welcome development for soil moistu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sees Mixed Monday on Risk-off Trade; Feeder Cattle Rally on Import Ban
The holiday trading season is officially here, which means the CBOT will likely see fading volume and volatility until the new year. Ag markets reflected much of that sentiment on Monday with wheat and corn falling amid reduced concerns about the conflict in the Black Sea while soybeans and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat High temperatures in recent days have slightly accelerated crop maturity and the harvest in Argentina. Weekly harvest progress reached 12 percent, with 30 percent of the area harvested. Yields show significant variability. In some cases, yields are improving as harvesters move into t...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina is progressing at a steady pace. Last week, the harvested area share increased by 5 percentage points, bringing the total to 17 percent of the sown area. The harvest begins in the north and gradually moves southward. In the northwest, the harvest is nea...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outlook. Notably, soymeal prices have slumped $30/MT lower since early October and are hovering near contract lows just below the $300 mark. Conve...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent volatility in oilseed markets has caused the three legs of the U.S. soybean crush to see interesting and divergent dynamics in 2025. Soybean futures have seen steady pressure since early February as the advancing Brazilian harvest and concerns about retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trad...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 7 March)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 7 March 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry-bulk freight markets gave back most of last week’s gains this week as the U.S. political and tariff situation has cast markets and traders into great confusion. Trade and economic outlo...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Oilseed Highlights: Tariffs Rock Global Oilseed Complex
The Market The CBOT soy complex saw dramatic volatility over the past week due to the impact of U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China and China’s retaliatory tariffs against U.S. soybeans. The tariffs have yet to substantially alter trade flows, though export sales and ship...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas needing precipitation received some relief, particularly in the northern core region and western agricultural zones. Currently, soils in the co...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Oilseed Highlights: Strong Vegoil Markets Support Oilseeds
The Market The major action in global oilseed markets this past week has been in the vegoil realm, where tightening global supplies have pushed prices higher. In turn, oilseed markets, including those for soybeans and rapeseed/canola, have been mostly steady as the advancing Brazilian har...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
WASDE Soybeans - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of soybeans for the 2024/25 season. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound. The projection for global endi...
WASDE Corn - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of corn for the 2024/25 season. The projected season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. ...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The projection for global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 was lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 mill...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Significant rainfall fell across almost the entire Argentine agricultural region last week, with the highest accumulations in the core corn and soybean areas. These rains followed weeks of intense drought and high temperatures. Soil moisture maps show substantial improvements in the nucleu...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...
Market Commentary: Volatile As Long As Tariffs Are Uncertain
The big news in the ag commodity markets Wednesday was the pullback in soybean futures as traders remain wary of the political tensions and tariff developments between Washington and Beijing. If this doesn’t sound like a major news story, you’d be correct, but this was about as even...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Tariff Relief; Cattle Selloff Extends to Second Day
Markets were encouraged by the fact both Canada and Mexico were able to secure 30-day delays on Trump’s tariff plans, which offers hope the duties are indeed a negotiating tactic rather than a steadfast policy platform. The big issue remains the 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and Chi...
Market Commentary: Tariff Whiplash
News of President Trump’s tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada drove the agricultural and macroeconomic markets on Monday with seemingly every tick, dip, and rally stemming from political factors. Over the weekend, President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods as well...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The reduction in export taxes has not yet had the expected impact of boosting farmer sales of grain and soybeans. The main issue is that price transmission has not been fully realized, primarily because exporters oppose the requirement to bring foreign currency into the countr...
Market Commentary: Tariffs More Than Weather
President Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow eclipsed concerns about South American weather and sent much of the agricultural futures complex into the red on Friday. Both countries will retaliate with Canada saying it will be...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day with Wheat Hot, The Rest Not
Today’s trading session pretty much followed the overnight with wheat notching a third day of gains but traders taking a breather on corn, beans, and cattle. While wheat is girded by doubtful moisture conditions in the northern Black Sea region, the corn and soybean markets do not want to...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Lead CBOT Higher; Cattle Correct Ahead of Inventory Report
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday due to the bullish influences of wheat and corn. The two grains saw support from Black Sea and South American weather impacts, respectively, with production outlooks for both regions falling. That put futures in a bullish mood with funds expanding net lon...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Tariff Threats Ease; Cattle Surge to New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-tat trade war over the weekend. Sunday saw both the U.S. and Colombian presidents threaten each other’s country with 25 percent tariffs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The state of agriculture in Argentina and the loss of export competitiveness become clearer when examined through recent data. The official inflation rate for December 2024 was reported at 2.7 percent, resulting in an accumulated inflation rate of 117.8 percent for 2024. During this period, the...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latter. There were new contract highs, again, in cattle. Overall weakness was blamed on Argentina’s announced lower tax rates on commodity...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still plenty of strength. Corn remains up about a nickel for the week, beans up more than 30-cents and while wheat dipped today, the large gains l...
Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake
Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than nothing, and something is all it takes to put brakes on a borderline market. The day’s trading closely tracked the overnight, with red showi...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather
The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as fully priced into futures, which left markets to return to trading the South American weather outlooks and export trends. Both of these facto...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatWith week-on-week progress of 3.5 percentage points, Argentina’s wheat harvest has reached 98 percent of the area and is nearing completion. Total production is expected to reach approximately 18.5 MMT.Markets have shown few updates, and local wheat prices remain nearly unchanged. As a res...
WASDE Soybeans Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for U.S. soybean production is down 95 million bushels to 4.366 billion bushels due to a 1 bushel per acre yield reduction – to average U.S. soybean yield of 50.7 bushels per acre. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, un...
WASDE Corn Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for reduced U.S. corn production at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million as a 3.8-bushel per acre cut in yield to 179.3. U.S. exports are cut 25 million bushels to 2.450 billion reflecting lower supplies. USDA notes that supply is falling more than use and the resul...
WASDE Wheat Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for unchanged U.S. wheat exports of 850 million bushels. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price of wheat is reduced by $0.05 per bushel to $5.55.World trade is 1.7 millio...
Oilseed Highlights
The Market Soybean futures have largely been waiting for the January WASDE report, which USDA will publish on today, with traders specifically focusing on the South American supply outlooks. The dry weather in Argentina has been largely offset by favorable conditions in Brazil, leaving the...
Market Commentary: Big Nothingburger
It was a good thing that futures markets closed early today given that there were very few inputs to guide movements. The U.S. government was closed in observance of President Jimmy Carter’s memorial, so reports like weekly Export Sales are delayed until tomorrow. Wall Street and the...
Market Commentary: Comfortable, With Jitters
There was generally low volume in grains today as traders await USDA’s important reports on Friday. There is no reason to spend more money on fees or commissions after spending several days aligning with the perceived outcomes. At the same time, market noise does not completely stop and there i...
Market Commentary: No Major Swings on More Positioning Ahead of WASDE
Corn opened lower but managed a quarter penny higher close, and hogs tried to follow cattle higher at the open but ended lower for a third session in a row, but the rest of the pack ended the day where it started with equally small changes.Fundamentals are helping corn, wheat and cattle, and so...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Precipitation Forecasts Fall
The CBOT tried – and mostly succeeded – to reverse Friday’s selloff with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all turning higher to start the first full trading week of 2025. The fundamental catalysts for the day’s strength were the slide in the U.S. dollar, thanks to more trade-friendly (or at lea...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
2025 Outlook Last year was extremely challenging for Argentine agriculture, with sharp declines in commodity prices exacerbating the situation in recent months. The exchange rate has shifted from approximately 800 ARS/USD to 1,030 ARS/USD, while high dollar inflation has significantly incr...
Market Commentary: New Year, Same Trend - Corn and Beans Higher, Wheat Not
Corn and soybeans opened lower but quickly shifted back to positive territory. All three wheats were lower in overnight trading and pretty much traded lower all during the day session. There was good volume trading in HRW, cattle and feeders. March feeder cattle hit a new contract high. Lean ho...
Market Commentary: Year End Rally in Corn and Beans
The day’s trading started out hum and glum. Corn and soybean contracts moved modestly like their overnight closes and stayed marginal for most of the day. Soyoil was continuing its recent mostly negative run. Wheat never went anywhere important, high or low. Then there was a breakout late...
Export Sales Bouy Grains; Argy Weather, Slow Exports Sink Soybeans
Grain markets were quiet in Friday’s overnight trade despite the bullish technical days they scored on Thursday. The Export Sales report – as one of the few fundamental updates available for the day – was influential in determining the grain markets’ direction for the day. That meant support fo...
Argentine Weather Emboldens CBOT Bulls
The CBOT found its way to higher ground on Thursday after an old-school hard opening with no overnight session to guide the market. Argentina’s weather is starting to become more impactful for grain futures as dryness persists into the mid-January forecast, which could disrupt early corn and so...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatOver the past seven days, the lack of rain allowed a 12.2-percentage-point increase in Argentina’s wheat harvest progress, which reached 76.1 percent of the area. Harvesting activities have focused on central and western Buenos Aires Province. Meanwhile, wheat commercialization and truck a...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest recorded a week-on-week progress of 15.8 percentage points and reached 63.9 percent of the total area. Yields remain generally good and, in some cases, surpass initial expectations, prompting upward revisions to production estimates. The market projects 18–1...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine wheat harvest has reached 48.1 percent of the expected area, with weekly progress of 9.4 percentage points, with efforts primarily focused in the central agricultural region. Standing crops are transitioning from late grain filling to physiological maturity, with 80.7 p...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
November Rainfall and Crop Impacts in ArgentinaRecent rains have brought significant rain accumulation for Argentina, with precipitation in November exceeding the historical monthly average in most areas. After three years of severe drought, the rainfall is a welcome development for soil moistu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sees Mixed Monday on Risk-off Trade; Feeder Cattle Rally on Import Ban
The holiday trading season is officially here, which means the CBOT will likely see fading volume and volatility until the new year. Ag markets reflected much of that sentiment on Monday with wheat and corn falling amid reduced concerns about the conflict in the Black Sea while soybeans and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat High temperatures in recent days have slightly accelerated crop maturity and the harvest in Argentina. Weekly harvest progress reached 12 percent, with 30 percent of the area harvested. Yields show significant variability. In some cases, yields are improving as harvesters move into t...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina is progressing at a steady pace. Last week, the harvested area share increased by 5 percentage points, bringing the total to 17 percent of the sown area. The harvest begins in the north and gradually moves southward. In the northwest, the harvest is nea...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outlook. Notably, soymeal prices have slumped $30/MT lower since early October and are hovering near contract lows just below the $300 mark. Conve...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...