Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 December 2024Russian grain markets remained relatively stable but, in some areas, especially export platform, prices were bearish. Part of the reason behind a bearish trend is the potential decrease of stocks. As of early December, stocks of agricultural companies...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 18 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 13 December 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets are in the middle of the holiday-season slowdown with thin and very quiet trade characterizing what little market activity is present. The peak demand period from the North American grain harvest has now past bu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 December 2024Export duties were the key driver followed by forex and increased freight costs for rail deliveries which are the main channel of grain delivery to the ports both from Russian territory and occupied territories of Ukraine. Before, freight was not a majo...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Ahead of the WASDE
The CBOT saw mostly WASDE-motivated short covering on Monday with funds scaling back short positions in wheat and soybeans and cautiously extending longs in the corn market. Fresh news was light for the day and traders were mostly focused on adjusting positions ahead of the WASDE. The weather r...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 26 November, Russian farmers produced 132 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 19.3 MMT less than a year ago. This is with the crop harvested from 97.7 percent of the area yielding only 2.82 M/ha versus 3.16/MT a year ago. Grain yields...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18 – 22 November 2024Russian Vice Premier Dmitri Patrushev is confident that Russia will export up to 60 MMT of grains this season. According to Mr. Patrushev, the gross grain production this season will reach 130 MMT in standard weight, of which 83 MMT is wheat. The Vice...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Instability and Trade War Influences
There were some jitters this week as Russia and Ukraine stepped up assaults ahead of what may become talks to end the conflict. Alongside concerns about a kinetic war is the uncertainty around the incoming Trump Administration’s aggressions in trade policy.It should be noted that geopolitical u...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 November 2024Russian Union of Grain producers and exporters announced that winter wheat area for 2025/26 may drop to 15.4 Mha which will be the smallest planted winter crops area since 2018/19. Particularly, wheat area may drop by 0.9 Mha to 16.3 Mha, and after wi...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Ukraine War Developments, Fund Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with markets reacting to Friday’s CFTC data as well as news that will impact the Ukraine-Russia war. First, the CFTC data showed managed money traders engaged in a surprise, massive buying spree in corn last week, a move that sparked support in futur...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Jumps Higher on Massive Egypt Imports; Soymeal Falls on EUDR News
Wheat remains the darling of the CBOT with more bullish news pouring into the complex. Today’s rally was sparked by reports that Egypt has booked over 3 MMT of wheat from the Black Sea (presumably Russia) to be exported over the next six months. That move comes as Russian wheat stocks are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 September 2024 The Russian grain market is finally showing bullish sentiments. Adverse weather in Russia this season concerns many analysts, and they are one after another decreasing their forecasts for overall grain production. Exact numbers are hard to figure...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 August 2024 Kazakhstan announced they will close the borders with Russia for wheat from now until 31 December. This will put even more pressure on the Russian wheat market and may push them to offer softer offers for GASC tenders where they are the key players...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 August 2024 Crop Outlook As of 13 August, Russian farmers produced 69 MMT of grains from 20.6 Mha versus 73.5 MMT from 19.5 Mha last year. The average yield showed 3.36 MT/ha versus 3.76 a year ago. Wheat production reached 56.3 MMT from 15.8 Mha versus 57.4 M...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Market Commentary: Weather, Specs and Cheap Prices
The weather is bearish, except for spring wheat, and speculators are record short. Even having the cheapest grain in the world cannot spark enough new demand to slow the slide. Finding a bottom requires a supply shock, and the potential 20 MMT loss in Black Sea production due to drought is not...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 August 2024 Crop Outlook Russian analysts woke up to the fact that grain production reported from farms is higher than originally predicted. The reaction was quick and most of the main analytical agencies in Russia reforecast their numbers upwards. Particularly,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 July–2 August 2024 Russian Vice Premier Patroushev announced that Russia is 40 percent done with harvesting small grains. The harvesting pace is ahead of last year’s pace; however, production is only 64 MMT which is lower than last year’s crop. The gr...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Sink on Record Yield Chatter; Wheat Firms on Quality Worries
Corn, the soy complex, and cattle futures each saw extended weakness in Thursday’s CBOT trade with the crop markets coming under pressure from favorable weather conditions and forecasts for the U.S. There is increasing market chatter about record breaking yields for both corn and soybeans...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 July 2024 This season Russia will fail to produce a record crop despite an earlier harvesting campaign. The Ministry of Agriculture believes in their previous forecast of 132 MMT of which wheat is 86 MMT. Interestingly, the Ministry of Agriculture is the most...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Market Commentary: Midwest Heat Concerns Corn, Soybeans; Cattle Finally React to COF Report
After two days of exciting trade, the CBOT settled down a little on Tuesday to reflect more deeply on market fundamentals. Monday’s Crop Progress data was largely reassuring for the major row crops, which helped create more stability in futures for the day. Wheat futures dipped but did no...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trends Continue; Ukraine’s Corn in Jeopardy
The CBOT saw generally quiet, steady trade at mid-week, but many players noted firmer undertones as futures stabilize or start to recover from deeply oversold conditions. Corn and all three wheat futures markets turned higher with cautious bull spreading with the latter market seeing support fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign. Even though this year’s crop is quite modest compared to the past several seasons, the pressure on prices is significant because of...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Neutral Corn; Soybeans Fall on Demand Worries
CBOT futures had a relatively muted reaction to the USDA’s July WASDE as large U.S. and global new crop ending stocks damped much of any potential volatility. The biggest theme was larger U.S. and world wheat supplies and stocks while the outlook for corn saw far more muted changes. Soybe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower
Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade. Trading volume was expectedly light ahead of the one-day break in trading and few markets made major moves. Those that did, however, include...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 June 2024 Russia’s grain markets were quite volatile with some regions showing price recoveries. Southern Russia’s harvesting campaign is underway. Fresh demand for new crop barley has seen better price levels and as long as feed barley exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 June 2024 Last week, Russian grain markets were quite volatile. In the south, the main export-oriented areas saw grain prices drop following the global bearish trend and Russia’s most recent failure on the GASC tender in Egypt. Moreover, Russia’s s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 June 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable and slightly bullish against solid demand for Russian wheat globally and recently appreciated markets due to fears of lower production caused by adverse spring weather. All Russian ministries, including the Ministr...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 May 2024 Russia remains the focus of many world grain analysts as weather factors in Russia and Ukraine make global markets nervous and bullish. Futures markets reacted almost instantaneously while Russian markets only now realize the situation and all grains...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Move to Trading Range Lows; Wheat Falls on Black Sea Rain
Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting progress, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and rains forecast for the Black Sea region this week. Corn and soybeans primarily saw their weakness de...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 May 2024 Crop Outlook Russian weather, particularly spring frosts, became an important factor in estimating the potential of this season’s crop. Despite the warnings from government agencies not to publish forecasts, several Russian analysts still announ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Bulls Remain Relentless; U.S. Farmers Make Strong Planting Progress
Overnight volume was strong at the CBOT with traders eager to get back to work following a weekend of reductions in the Black Sea crop forecast(s). Several private firms lowered their Russian wheat crop estimates late Friday or over the weekend, which sent EU futures higher on Monday and create...
Market Commentary: Weather Continues to Drive CBOT Strength; Meat Stocks Tighten Further
Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South America over the coming three-day holiday weekend. Weather concerns for planting the 2024 U.S. crops are lingering despite strong progress to da...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Corn Still Strong; Soy Complex Waivers
Corn traded mostly higher all session and has gained value in three of the past four days. The soy complex was higher in the overnight session and opened that way this morning, but it didn’t last long and closed in the red. The July soybean contract has had a mixed week, but it is still u...
Sunflower on Edge
Global sunflower seed production is only about one-seventh as large as soybean output, but it has surprisingly continued on a similar trend in supply despite the war between the two largest producers, Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s sunflower seed production faltered in 2022 at the outset o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 May 2024 Crop Outlook As of mid-May, Russia farmers planted 24.8 Mha of spring crops which is 44.5 percent of the forecast. This is 4.6 Mha ahead of last year’s planting pace. Grains and pulses were planted over 12.98 Mha which is 43.2 percent of the for...
Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans
Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ranging from Smolensk all the way to Volga Valley. Some nighttime temperatures were as low as minus 12 degrees Celsius which is catastrophic f...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April–3 May 2024 Last week Russia celebrated International Labor Day, and on May 9 will celebrate WWII Victory Day, resulting in a long 10-day holiday for many Russian families, including grain traders. This traditionally slows down trade, however, logistics cont...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 April 2024 Russian analysts are beginning to worry that this season’s grain production in Russia may drop from almost 145 MMT in 2023 to 135 MMT because of the drought in Southern Federal District – the wheat belt of Russia. Russian Ministry of Agr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may leave Russia without proper genetics for this spring’s planting campaign. While small grains are available due to long term domestic see...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 December 2024Russian grain markets remained relatively stable but, in some areas, especially export platform, prices were bearish. Part of the reason behind a bearish trend is the potential decrease of stocks. As of early December, stocks of agricultural companies...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 18 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 13 December 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets are in the middle of the holiday-season slowdown with thin and very quiet trade characterizing what little market activity is present. The peak demand period from the North American grain harvest has now past bu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 December 2024Export duties were the key driver followed by forex and increased freight costs for rail deliveries which are the main channel of grain delivery to the ports both from Russian territory and occupied territories of Ukraine. Before, freight was not a majo...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Ahead of the WASDE
The CBOT saw mostly WASDE-motivated short covering on Monday with funds scaling back short positions in wheat and soybeans and cautiously extending longs in the corn market. Fresh news was light for the day and traders were mostly focused on adjusting positions ahead of the WASDE. The weather r...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 26 November, Russian farmers produced 132 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 19.3 MMT less than a year ago. This is with the crop harvested from 97.7 percent of the area yielding only 2.82 M/ha versus 3.16/MT a year ago. Grain yields...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18 – 22 November 2024Russian Vice Premier Dmitri Patrushev is confident that Russia will export up to 60 MMT of grains this season. According to Mr. Patrushev, the gross grain production this season will reach 130 MMT in standard weight, of which 83 MMT is wheat. The Vice...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Instability and Trade War Influences
There were some jitters this week as Russia and Ukraine stepped up assaults ahead of what may become talks to end the conflict. Alongside concerns about a kinetic war is the uncertainty around the incoming Trump Administration’s aggressions in trade policy.It should be noted that geopolitical u...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 November 2024Russian Union of Grain producers and exporters announced that winter wheat area for 2025/26 may drop to 15.4 Mha which will be the smallest planted winter crops area since 2018/19. Particularly, wheat area may drop by 0.9 Mha to 16.3 Mha, and after wi...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Ukraine War Developments, Fund Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with markets reacting to Friday’s CFTC data as well as news that will impact the Ukraine-Russia war. First, the CFTC data showed managed money traders engaged in a surprise, massive buying spree in corn last week, a move that sparked support in futur...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Jumps Higher on Massive Egypt Imports; Soymeal Falls on EUDR News
Wheat remains the darling of the CBOT with more bullish news pouring into the complex. Today’s rally was sparked by reports that Egypt has booked over 3 MMT of wheat from the Black Sea (presumably Russia) to be exported over the next six months. That move comes as Russian wheat stocks are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 September 2024 The Russian grain market is finally showing bullish sentiments. Adverse weather in Russia this season concerns many analysts, and they are one after another decreasing their forecasts for overall grain production. Exact numbers are hard to figure...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 August 2024 Kazakhstan announced they will close the borders with Russia for wheat from now until 31 December. This will put even more pressure on the Russian wheat market and may push them to offer softer offers for GASC tenders where they are the key players...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 August 2024 Crop Outlook As of 13 August, Russian farmers produced 69 MMT of grains from 20.6 Mha versus 73.5 MMT from 19.5 Mha last year. The average yield showed 3.36 MT/ha versus 3.76 a year ago. Wheat production reached 56.3 MMT from 15.8 Mha versus 57.4 M...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Market Commentary: Weather, Specs and Cheap Prices
The weather is bearish, except for spring wheat, and speculators are record short. Even having the cheapest grain in the world cannot spark enough new demand to slow the slide. Finding a bottom requires a supply shock, and the potential 20 MMT loss in Black Sea production due to drought is not...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 August 2024 Crop Outlook Russian analysts woke up to the fact that grain production reported from farms is higher than originally predicted. The reaction was quick and most of the main analytical agencies in Russia reforecast their numbers upwards. Particularly,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 July–2 August 2024 Russian Vice Premier Patroushev announced that Russia is 40 percent done with harvesting small grains. The harvesting pace is ahead of last year’s pace; however, production is only 64 MMT which is lower than last year’s crop. The gr...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Sink on Record Yield Chatter; Wheat Firms on Quality Worries
Corn, the soy complex, and cattle futures each saw extended weakness in Thursday’s CBOT trade with the crop markets coming under pressure from favorable weather conditions and forecasts for the U.S. There is increasing market chatter about record breaking yields for both corn and soybeans...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 July 2024 This season Russia will fail to produce a record crop despite an earlier harvesting campaign. The Ministry of Agriculture believes in their previous forecast of 132 MMT of which wheat is 86 MMT. Interestingly, the Ministry of Agriculture is the most...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Market Commentary: Midwest Heat Concerns Corn, Soybeans; Cattle Finally React to COF Report
After two days of exciting trade, the CBOT settled down a little on Tuesday to reflect more deeply on market fundamentals. Monday’s Crop Progress data was largely reassuring for the major row crops, which helped create more stability in futures for the day. Wheat futures dipped but did no...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trends Continue; Ukraine’s Corn in Jeopardy
The CBOT saw generally quiet, steady trade at mid-week, but many players noted firmer undertones as futures stabilize or start to recover from deeply oversold conditions. Corn and all three wheat futures markets turned higher with cautious bull spreading with the latter market seeing support fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign. Even though this year’s crop is quite modest compared to the past several seasons, the pressure on prices is significant because of...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Neutral Corn; Soybeans Fall on Demand Worries
CBOT futures had a relatively muted reaction to the USDA’s July WASDE as large U.S. and global new crop ending stocks damped much of any potential volatility. The biggest theme was larger U.S. and world wheat supplies and stocks while the outlook for corn saw far more muted changes. Soybe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower
Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade. Trading volume was expectedly light ahead of the one-day break in trading and few markets made major moves. Those that did, however, include...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 June 2024 Russia’s grain markets were quite volatile with some regions showing price recoveries. Southern Russia’s harvesting campaign is underway. Fresh demand for new crop barley has seen better price levels and as long as feed barley exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 June 2024 Last week, Russian grain markets were quite volatile. In the south, the main export-oriented areas saw grain prices drop following the global bearish trend and Russia’s most recent failure on the GASC tender in Egypt. Moreover, Russia’s s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 June 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable and slightly bullish against solid demand for Russian wheat globally and recently appreciated markets due to fears of lower production caused by adverse spring weather. All Russian ministries, including the Ministr...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 May 2024 Russia remains the focus of many world grain analysts as weather factors in Russia and Ukraine make global markets nervous and bullish. Futures markets reacted almost instantaneously while Russian markets only now realize the situation and all grains...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Move to Trading Range Lows; Wheat Falls on Black Sea Rain
Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting progress, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and rains forecast for the Black Sea region this week. Corn and soybeans primarily saw their weakness de...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 May 2024 Crop Outlook Russian weather, particularly spring frosts, became an important factor in estimating the potential of this season’s crop. Despite the warnings from government agencies not to publish forecasts, several Russian analysts still announ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Bulls Remain Relentless; U.S. Farmers Make Strong Planting Progress
Overnight volume was strong at the CBOT with traders eager to get back to work following a weekend of reductions in the Black Sea crop forecast(s). Several private firms lowered their Russian wheat crop estimates late Friday or over the weekend, which sent EU futures higher on Monday and create...
Market Commentary: Weather Continues to Drive CBOT Strength; Meat Stocks Tighten Further
Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South America over the coming three-day holiday weekend. Weather concerns for planting the 2024 U.S. crops are lingering despite strong progress to da...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Corn Still Strong; Soy Complex Waivers
Corn traded mostly higher all session and has gained value in three of the past four days. The soy complex was higher in the overnight session and opened that way this morning, but it didn’t last long and closed in the red. The July soybean contract has had a mixed week, but it is still u...
Sunflower on Edge
Global sunflower seed production is only about one-seventh as large as soybean output, but it has surprisingly continued on a similar trend in supply despite the war between the two largest producers, Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s sunflower seed production faltered in 2022 at the outset o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 May 2024 Crop Outlook As of mid-May, Russia farmers planted 24.8 Mha of spring crops which is 44.5 percent of the forecast. This is 4.6 Mha ahead of last year’s planting pace. Grains and pulses were planted over 12.98 Mha which is 43.2 percent of the for...
Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans
Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ranging from Smolensk all the way to Volga Valley. Some nighttime temperatures were as low as minus 12 degrees Celsius which is catastrophic f...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April–3 May 2024 Last week Russia celebrated International Labor Day, and on May 9 will celebrate WWII Victory Day, resulting in a long 10-day holiday for many Russian families, including grain traders. This traditionally slows down trade, however, logistics cont...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 April 2024 Russian analysts are beginning to worry that this season’s grain production in Russia may drop from almost 145 MMT in 2023 to 135 MMT because of the drought in Southern Federal District – the wheat belt of Russia. Russian Ministry of Agr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may leave Russia without proper genetics for this spring’s planting campaign. While small grains are available due to long term domestic see...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...