Recent Feed Grains Analysis
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.25/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 21-27, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 380,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 5 perce...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 February 2025 During the last week of February, the market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Milling wheat remained bullish pulling up feed wheat and milling rye which is in short supply as well. And it is no wonder as during 2024 rye crop acre...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Central Bank has left interest rates unchanged, with the main operational interest rate standing at 27.75 percent per annum. Egypt and the EU have agreed on a €90 million European Investment Bank finance program...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s all-grain exports are down 1 percent YTD through February at 29 MMT. February shipments fell 40 percent from the same month in 2024 and totaled 3.2 MMT. The EU Commission lowered its forecast of the bloc’s total grain production for 2024/25 to 255...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
WPI 2025/26 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook
Following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and the release of the agency’s initial 2025/26 outlooks, WPI has updated our major crop forecasts for the coming marketing year as well. Our latest model runs indicate a more bearish outlook for corn as ending stocks are forecast to incr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.81/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $2.3...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 14-20, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 269,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 378,700 MT were up 63 percent from the previous week, but down 9 per...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Ag Futures Fall; Bears Trying to Run Away with Market
The CBOT was broadly lower on Wednesday with fund selling and a lack of bullish news or inputs pushing values into the red. Wheat was the biggest loser for the day and its weakness helped pull corn off an early rally where May futures tested the $5.00 level to no avail. The soy complex was on t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices are frozen. The export market remains the key driver, and the world is watching several factors including remaining stocks of wheat as well as the status of the w...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Further but Soy Complex Show Strength
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with risk-off trade and seasonal factors driving most of the day’s action. The markets are also seeing a good bit of repositioning heading into first notice day on Friday, which helped drive heavy-volume trade and some of spread trade dynamics. The soy...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.1...
2025 Planted Acres: Corn to Expand
Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux, however, multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S. That is according to CoBank’s outlook, predicting an increase of 4.17 million acres of corn. For soybeans, tariffs on i...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) has increased its ownership in Olam Agri from 35 percent to 80 percent with an option to buy the remaining shares within three years. Olam Agri is Singapore-based with an...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas needing precipitation received some relief, particularly in the northern core region and western agricultural zones. Currently, soils in the co...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.9/short ton, down $3 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds
The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gains in the longer dated positions. South American weather and the volatile situation in macro markets with consumers pulling back each had th...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 7-13, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 532,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 232,700 MT were down 60 percent from the previous week and 43 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9125/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.8/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, up $0.9...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices froze along with export demand for the latter. Keep in mind that beginning 15 February, the new export quota for grains covers only wheat. Wheat allowed for expor...
Market Commentary: Exports Bouy Corn; Wheat Rallies on Cold Snap Concerns
Grain futures were weaker overnight following the long weekend and after President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy. The markets bounced back Tuesday, however, with a positive export sales report buoying corn while fears of winterkill in the U.S. winter wheat crop pushed wheat futures...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6.0475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.385/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $293.8/short ton, down $2.1 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The 2025 dates for Ramadan are estimated to be 28 February until 30 March. The actual dates will depend on the location of each country. Egypt’s government hopes to increase its local wheat purchases in 2025 by 11 percent to...
Market Commentary: Weather, Economy, Tariffs All Jiggle the Market
There were surprisingly only modest trading volumes in this last trading session before a three-day holiday. There was no rush to escape positions. The livestock complex and soyoil closed lower, but the rest of the top trading ag commodities made gains on the day, but only cattle, soybeans, and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $3.2 from yeste...
No GMO Corn Ban by Mexico
Last Wednesday, the Mexican government formally repealed an import ban on genetically modified corn after the U.S. successfully argued the measure violated its commitments under a North American free trade deal. Here’s how we got here. In 2018, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, i.e., “t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7775/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $1.4 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 31-February 6, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 569,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 577,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 85...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2775/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 February 2025 The market remained bullish. Farmers keep sitting on grains expecting a better price amid rumours that ending stocks are melting away and grain will be in short supply soon. Both in Russia and Kazakhstan, export prices, the key driver on the mark...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296.6/short ton, down $3.9 fr...
WASDE Corn - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of corn for the 2024/25 season. The projected season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. ...
Moral Reciprocity
President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are mostly pure protectionism. Canada, Brazil and Mexico are the main suppliers, not the state-driven over-production of China. But now the President says he is going to impose reciprocal tariffs, matching dollar for dollar (percent...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – Mea Region Turkey’s wheat imports and exports are lower in 2024/25 due to restrictions by the Turkish government that will reduce the high level of stocks on hand. Morocco’s 2024 wheat and barley production is down by 40 p...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.915/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.5/short ton, down $0.9 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Significant rainfall fell across almost the entire Argentine agricultural region last week, with the highest accumulations in the core corn and soybean areas. These rains followed weeks of intense drought and high temperatures. Soil moisture maps show substantial improvements in the nucleu...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Global wheat prices were higher last week as concerns about the 2024/25 Russian supply and export program increase as well as concerns about the 2025/26 Black Sea production outlook. Russian exports are down sharply over the past few weeks and are projected to total just 2.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.4/short ton, down $5 f...
WPI 2025 Acreage Outlook
With the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook forum happening at the end of this month and planting season a little more than four weeks away for parts of the U.S., the industry is turning its attention to the acreage outlook for 2025. This year offers significant differences from recent conditions t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.25/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 21-27, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 380,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 5 perce...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 February 2025 During the last week of February, the market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Milling wheat remained bullish pulling up feed wheat and milling rye which is in short supply as well. And it is no wonder as during 2024 rye crop acre...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Central Bank has left interest rates unchanged, with the main operational interest rate standing at 27.75 percent per annum. Egypt and the EU have agreed on a €90 million European Investment Bank finance program...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s all-grain exports are down 1 percent YTD through February at 29 MMT. February shipments fell 40 percent from the same month in 2024 and totaled 3.2 MMT. The EU Commission lowered its forecast of the bloc’s total grain production for 2024/25 to 255...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
WPI 2025/26 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook
Following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and the release of the agency’s initial 2025/26 outlooks, WPI has updated our major crop forecasts for the coming marketing year as well. Our latest model runs indicate a more bearish outlook for corn as ending stocks are forecast to incr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.81/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $2.3...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 14-20, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 269,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 378,700 MT were up 63 percent from the previous week, but down 9 per...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Ag Futures Fall; Bears Trying to Run Away with Market
The CBOT was broadly lower on Wednesday with fund selling and a lack of bullish news or inputs pushing values into the red. Wheat was the biggest loser for the day and its weakness helped pull corn off an early rally where May futures tested the $5.00 level to no avail. The soy complex was on t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices are frozen. The export market remains the key driver, and the world is watching several factors including remaining stocks of wheat as well as the status of the w...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Further but Soy Complex Show Strength
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with risk-off trade and seasonal factors driving most of the day’s action. The markets are also seeing a good bit of repositioning heading into first notice day on Friday, which helped drive heavy-volume trade and some of spread trade dynamics. The soy...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.1...
2025 Planted Acres: Corn to Expand
Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux, however, multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S. That is according to CoBank’s outlook, predicting an increase of 4.17 million acres of corn. For soybeans, tariffs on i...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) has increased its ownership in Olam Agri from 35 percent to 80 percent with an option to buy the remaining shares within three years. Olam Agri is Singapore-based with an...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas needing precipitation received some relief, particularly in the northern core region and western agricultural zones. Currently, soils in the co...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.9/short ton, down $3 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds
The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gains in the longer dated positions. South American weather and the volatile situation in macro markets with consumers pulling back each had th...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 7-13, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 532,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 232,700 MT were down 60 percent from the previous week and 43 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9125/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.8/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, up $0.9...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices froze along with export demand for the latter. Keep in mind that beginning 15 February, the new export quota for grains covers only wheat. Wheat allowed for expor...
Market Commentary: Exports Bouy Corn; Wheat Rallies on Cold Snap Concerns
Grain futures were weaker overnight following the long weekend and after President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy. The markets bounced back Tuesday, however, with a positive export sales report buoying corn while fears of winterkill in the U.S. winter wheat crop pushed wheat futures...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6.0475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.385/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $293.8/short ton, down $2.1 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The 2025 dates for Ramadan are estimated to be 28 February until 30 March. The actual dates will depend on the location of each country. Egypt’s government hopes to increase its local wheat purchases in 2025 by 11 percent to...
Market Commentary: Weather, Economy, Tariffs All Jiggle the Market
There were surprisingly only modest trading volumes in this last trading session before a three-day holiday. There was no rush to escape positions. The livestock complex and soyoil closed lower, but the rest of the top trading ag commodities made gains on the day, but only cattle, soybeans, and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $3.2 from yeste...
No GMO Corn Ban by Mexico
Last Wednesday, the Mexican government formally repealed an import ban on genetically modified corn after the U.S. successfully argued the measure violated its commitments under a North American free trade deal. Here’s how we got here. In 2018, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, i.e., “t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7775/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $1.4 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 31-February 6, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 569,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 577,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 85...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2775/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 February 2025 The market remained bullish. Farmers keep sitting on grains expecting a better price amid rumours that ending stocks are melting away and grain will be in short supply soon. Both in Russia and Kazakhstan, export prices, the key driver on the mark...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296.6/short ton, down $3.9 fr...
WASDE Corn - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of corn for the 2024/25 season. The projected season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. ...
Moral Reciprocity
President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are mostly pure protectionism. Canada, Brazil and Mexico are the main suppliers, not the state-driven over-production of China. But now the President says he is going to impose reciprocal tariffs, matching dollar for dollar (percent...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – Mea Region Turkey’s wheat imports and exports are lower in 2024/25 due to restrictions by the Turkish government that will reduce the high level of stocks on hand. Morocco’s 2024 wheat and barley production is down by 40 p...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.915/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.5/short ton, down $0.9 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Significant rainfall fell across almost the entire Argentine agricultural region last week, with the highest accumulations in the core corn and soybean areas. These rains followed weeks of intense drought and high temperatures. Soil moisture maps show substantial improvements in the nucleu...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Global wheat prices were higher last week as concerns about the 2024/25 Russian supply and export program increase as well as concerns about the 2025/26 Black Sea production outlook. Russian exports are down sharply over the past few weeks and are projected to total just 2.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.4/short ton, down $5 f...
WPI 2025 Acreage Outlook
With the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook forum happening at the end of this month and planting season a little more than four weeks away for parts of the U.S., the industry is turning its attention to the acreage outlook for 2025. This year offers significant differences from recent conditions t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...