Year of the Pulse
The International Grains Council (IGC) announced that it will include pulses in its definition of grains and expand market information on these products. Trade in pulses has been increasing as they grow in stature as a staple food and plant-based protein. The pod-based seeds of the legume famil...
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn Prices Remain Higher, Curbing Export Potential The government of India (GOI) estimated the khariff (October harvest) corn production at 21.47 MMT on 26 September 2018, 1.23 MMT more than the final estimate for that season’s crop last year. The increase is despite the uneven distribut...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulses Demand, Supply and Prices India has been importing large quantities of pulses/lentils over the years. That slowed in the last year, however, as domestic production has increased because of higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Khariff pulses production is expected to rise from 6 MMT in 20...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
How Much Sugar and Ethanol Will India Produce in Sugar Year 2018/19? It was widely speculated about four months ago that India would produce a huge volume of sugar at 35.5 MMT, adding to its problems of plenty. Following new reports of water scarcity and drought conditions in Maharashtra (as we...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of establishing a wheat hedging program to better protect against the volatility of international wheat prices. The finance ministry is said to be taking a very close look at how such a system cou...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Stable Pulses Demand; Prices Remain Low India’s 2018/10 khariff pulses production is expected to reach 9.2 MMT, down slightly from 9.34 MMT in the previous season. With the rabi crops (sown in October/November and harvested in April) forecast at over 15 MMT, there will be suffient domesti...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Another Bailout Package for Sugar Sector The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a third package to bail out the sugar industry. Worth $758 million, it includes a freight subsidy for sugar exports of up to 5 MMT and $1.89/MT on cane crushed in 2018/19. The first package, v...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Drop in Vegetable Oil Imports India’s vegetable oil imports have increased over the years. They rose from 14.42 MMT in 2014/15 (November-October) to 14.57 MMT in 2015/16 and 15.07 MMT (approx. 1.25 MT/month) in 2016/17. In 2017/18, though, overall imports are down. According to data...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Prices Rise, Despite Bumper Crop According to the 4th Advance Agricultural Production estimates released this week, India’s wheat production in 2017/18 was revised to 99.7 MMT and GOI has procured 35.51 MMT so far. Higher production and procurement rates 5 MMT higher than the initia...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Dropping Rupee Impacts Imports and Economy The Indian rupee has continued to drop in value against the U.S. dollar. It is currently trading at 70.14 versus the USD, and the depreciation is now at 10.30 percent. As noted in the 29 June 2018 report (click here), the Indian rupee had at that...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4 MMT versus 9.615 MMT in the same previous eight months. For June 2018, they were 19.18 percent lower than May 2018 at 1.007 MMT and down 22...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Increased Sugarcane Prices a Double Blow for the Sugar Industry As this is an election year, the government must please farmers, the backbone of the Indian economy. As it promised in the election manifesto and again in the budget speech to guarantee them at least a 50 percent profit above the c...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ban on Yellow Pea Imports Extended for Three Months India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the ban on yellow pea imports, first implemented in late April 2018 for a three-month period as the price of chickpeas cotinued to slide, until 30 September 2018. Per the notification, “The...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn and Soymeal Exports Could Keep Prices High Indian corn is competitive and finding markets in Vietnam and Bangladesh. Vietnam continues to import Indian corn in containers at $220-225/MT delivered. This price is compared to U.S. and South American corn at $230/MT delivered. Bangladesh impor...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Improve on GOI Intervention It seems that the government of India (GOI) has finally heeded the sugar industry’s demand and will create a buffer stock. With the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association now boosting its sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, 2018/19 opening stocks...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s Vegetable Oil Demand and Imports Both Higher in 2017/18 India’s overall vegetable oil imports reached 15.573 MMT for 2017/18 (March-April), a 9.53 percent increase from 14.217 MMT the previous year. This included 15.181 MMT of edible oil and 0.392 MMT of nonedible oil, up fr...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Subsidy for Sugarcane Growers Unable to pay for sugarcane deliveries because of high input costs and low sugar prices, the sugar industry approached the government for an intervention. The arrears owed to farmers had reached $2.98 billion at the end of March 2018, and the government of India (G...
Stats Canada Surprises!
Stats Canada released its initial planting estimates for Canada this morning, which included several significant surprises such as the following: Canola acreage is forecast to drop 7 percent from 2017, well below the trade’s pre-report guesses. This is likely the result of last year&rsqu...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn Exports Unlikely Without More Signifcant Drop in Domestic Prices Domestic corn prices in the key rabi production center (Gulabbagh, Bihar) have continued to fall. The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) spot price is down and expected to move lower as harvest nears. Old sto...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected Based on the projected increase in sugarcane production (see Ag Perspectives, 2 March), a higher crush as well as good recovery in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, the sugar industry expects 2017/18 sugar production to reach 29.2 MMT, a record. That is...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Second Advance Production Estimates Project Record Food Grain Production The government of India (GOI) released the Second Advanced Estimates for Agricultural Production on 27 February 2018, which projected the country’s total food grain production in 2017/18 at 277.49 MMT, 2.94 MMT more...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine and Brazilian Soy Crops; U.S. Export Sales; India’s Oilseeds
Forecast for Argentine Soybean Crop Reduced Again The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today lowered its forecast for the Argentine 2018 soybean crop from 47 MMT to 44 MMT because of the ongoing drought. It indicated conditions continue to worsen and seemed to suggest there could be a further reduct...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. According to National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) data, the bottom spot price occurred on 5 February 2018 with prices rising 8...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Duties on Sugar and Chickpea Imports Have Immediate Effect To keep a check on prices, the government of India (GOI) has raised the duty on sugar from 50 percent to 100 percent. The increase was a demand from the sugar industry as sugar prices were below the cost of production. Both carry...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
High Duty Reduces Edible Oil Imports Edible oil imports dropped in December 2017 following an increase in the duty the previous month, falling approximately 9.88 percent to 1.058 MMT versus 1.174 MMT in December 2016. They totaled 2.283 MMT for the two months of November and December 2017, down...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Continue to Tumble Sugarcane processors (mills) should pay farmers for their stocks within two weeks of the harvest/purchase, and the government of India (GOI) had increased the prices in 2017 for sugar year 2017/18 (October-September). There is a lag period as the sugar is process...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Supplies Keeping Sugar Prices in Check India’s sugar production reached 10.3 MMT as of 31 December 2017, a 25.36 percent increase from the total 8.2 MMT on the same date in 2016. It totaled 3.8 MMT in Maharashtra, 3.33 MMT in Uttar Pradesh and 1.62 MMT in Karnataka. This boost corr...
Year of the Pulse
The International Grains Council (IGC) announced that it will include pulses in its definition of grains and expand market information on these products. Trade in pulses has been increasing as they grow in stature as a staple food and plant-based protein. The pod-based seeds of the legume famil...
An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector
Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which would raise $175 million at the mid-point price. The company’s cornerstone product is the Beyond Burger, which is now available at a nu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn Prices Remain Higher, Curbing Export Potential The government of India (GOI) estimated the khariff (October harvest) corn production at 21.47 MMT on 26 September 2018, 1.23 MMT more than the final estimate for that season’s crop last year. The increase is despite the uneven distribut...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulses Demand, Supply and Prices India has been importing large quantities of pulses/lentils over the years. That slowed in the last year, however, as domestic production has increased because of higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Khariff pulses production is expected to rise from 6 MMT in 20...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
How Much Sugar and Ethanol Will India Produce in Sugar Year 2018/19? It was widely speculated about four months ago that India would produce a huge volume of sugar at 35.5 MMT, adding to its problems of plenty. Following new reports of water scarcity and drought conditions in Maharashtra (as we...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of establishing a wheat hedging program to better protect against the volatility of international wheat prices. The finance ministry is said to be taking a very close look at how such a system cou...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Stable Pulses Demand; Prices Remain Low India’s 2018/10 khariff pulses production is expected to reach 9.2 MMT, down slightly from 9.34 MMT in the previous season. With the rabi crops (sown in October/November and harvested in April) forecast at over 15 MMT, there will be suffient domesti...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Another Bailout Package for Sugar Sector The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a third package to bail out the sugar industry. Worth $758 million, it includes a freight subsidy for sugar exports of up to 5 MMT and $1.89/MT on cane crushed in 2018/19. The first package, v...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Drop in Vegetable Oil Imports India’s vegetable oil imports have increased over the years. They rose from 14.42 MMT in 2014/15 (November-October) to 14.57 MMT in 2015/16 and 15.07 MMT (approx. 1.25 MT/month) in 2016/17. In 2017/18, though, overall imports are down. According to data...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Prices Rise, Despite Bumper Crop According to the 4th Advance Agricultural Production estimates released this week, India’s wheat production in 2017/18 was revised to 99.7 MMT and GOI has procured 35.51 MMT so far. Higher production and procurement rates 5 MMT higher than the initia...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Dropping Rupee Impacts Imports and Economy The Indian rupee has continued to drop in value against the U.S. dollar. It is currently trading at 70.14 versus the USD, and the depreciation is now at 10.30 percent. As noted in the 29 June 2018 report (click here), the Indian rupee had at that...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4 MMT versus 9.615 MMT in the same previous eight months. For June 2018, they were 19.18 percent lower than May 2018 at 1.007 MMT and down 22...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Increased Sugarcane Prices a Double Blow for the Sugar Industry As this is an election year, the government must please farmers, the backbone of the Indian economy. As it promised in the election manifesto and again in the budget speech to guarantee them at least a 50 percent profit above the c...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ban on Yellow Pea Imports Extended for Three Months India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the ban on yellow pea imports, first implemented in late April 2018 for a three-month period as the price of chickpeas cotinued to slide, until 30 September 2018. Per the notification, “The...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn and Soymeal Exports Could Keep Prices High Indian corn is competitive and finding markets in Vietnam and Bangladesh. Vietnam continues to import Indian corn in containers at $220-225/MT delivered. This price is compared to U.S. and South American corn at $230/MT delivered. Bangladesh impor...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Improve on GOI Intervention It seems that the government of India (GOI) has finally heeded the sugar industry’s demand and will create a buffer stock. With the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association now boosting its sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, 2018/19 opening stocks...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s Vegetable Oil Demand and Imports Both Higher in 2017/18 India’s overall vegetable oil imports reached 15.573 MMT for 2017/18 (March-April), a 9.53 percent increase from 14.217 MMT the previous year. This included 15.181 MMT of edible oil and 0.392 MMT of nonedible oil, up fr...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Subsidy for Sugarcane Growers Unable to pay for sugarcane deliveries because of high input costs and low sugar prices, the sugar industry approached the government for an intervention. The arrears owed to farmers had reached $2.98 billion at the end of March 2018, and the government of India (G...
Stats Canada Surprises!
Stats Canada released its initial planting estimates for Canada this morning, which included several significant surprises such as the following: Canola acreage is forecast to drop 7 percent from 2017, well below the trade’s pre-report guesses. This is likely the result of last year&rsqu...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn Exports Unlikely Without More Signifcant Drop in Domestic Prices Domestic corn prices in the key rabi production center (Gulabbagh, Bihar) have continued to fall. The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) spot price is down and expected to move lower as harvest nears. Old sto...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected Based on the projected increase in sugarcane production (see Ag Perspectives, 2 March), a higher crush as well as good recovery in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, the sugar industry expects 2017/18 sugar production to reach 29.2 MMT, a record. That is...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Second Advance Production Estimates Project Record Food Grain Production The government of India (GOI) released the Second Advanced Estimates for Agricultural Production on 27 February 2018, which projected the country’s total food grain production in 2017/18 at 277.49 MMT, 2.94 MMT more...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine and Brazilian Soy Crops; U.S. Export Sales; India’s Oilseeds
Forecast for Argentine Soybean Crop Reduced Again The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today lowered its forecast for the Argentine 2018 soybean crop from 47 MMT to 44 MMT because of the ongoing drought. It indicated conditions continue to worsen and seemed to suggest there could be a further reduct...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. According to National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) data, the bottom spot price occurred on 5 February 2018 with prices rising 8...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Duties on Sugar and Chickpea Imports Have Immediate Effect To keep a check on prices, the government of India (GOI) has raised the duty on sugar from 50 percent to 100 percent. The increase was a demand from the sugar industry as sugar prices were below the cost of production. Both carry...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
High Duty Reduces Edible Oil Imports Edible oil imports dropped in December 2017 following an increase in the duty the previous month, falling approximately 9.88 percent to 1.058 MMT versus 1.174 MMT in December 2016. They totaled 2.283 MMT for the two months of November and December 2017, down...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Continue to Tumble Sugarcane processors (mills) should pay farmers for their stocks within two weeks of the harvest/purchase, and the government of India (GOI) had increased the prices in 2017 for sugar year 2017/18 (October-September). There is a lag period as the sugar is process...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Supplies Keeping Sugar Prices in Check India’s sugar production reached 10.3 MMT as of 31 December 2017, a 25.36 percent increase from the total 8.2 MMT on the same date in 2016. It totaled 3.8 MMT in Maharashtra, 3.33 MMT in Uttar Pradesh and 1.62 MMT in Karnataka. This boost corr...