Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.5 million head, or 97 percent of last year. Placements were higher than forecast, and marketings were near pre-report estimates. This was the quarterly report showing steers and heifers on feed...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.305/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6775/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.7 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 9-15, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 618,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 372,400 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Transportation and Export Report - January 22, 2026
WPI is pleased to release the third week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by bui...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.645/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $0.2...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 21 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, up $1.6...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
U.S. financial markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, 19 January. As a result, WPI’s offices will be closed, and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published that day. Ag Perspectives will resume on Tuesday, 20 January...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Government Funding Update: ICE Policy Risks
This past fall the U.S. government was shutdown for the longest period in history, with a temporary reprieve reached to re-open the government until the end of this month (30 January). Regardless of what happens, USDA was funded for the year under the compromise package, thus keeping the agency...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Transportation and Export Report - January 15, 2026
WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building o...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, down $2.7 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 2 - 8, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 156,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 32 percent from the previous week, but down 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 303,300 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week, but down 29 perc...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.425/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $0.3 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...
WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday, the first of the year. Beef production is still down compared to 2024, but projections were raised for 2026. Beef production was raised as heavier slaughter weights more than offset the reduction i...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
WASDE Corn - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for larger production and higher feed residual usage to result in greater ending stocks: Corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million acre ris...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
India Holds Out; USMCA Friction; AI and Ag
India Holds Out The most disappointed of U.S. trading partners has to be India. It has long held hope that it would succeed China as the largest foreign supplier to the American market. It is a natural foil to China, which has been politely designated by Washington as a strategic competitor and...
WASDE Soybeans - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is increased by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1125/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.49/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $5.4...
Venezuela Oil Situation and Oil Price Impacts
The world woke up on 3 January to news of the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela. Few expected this move from the U.S. administration, but in hindsight it may not have been surprising. The Biden administration had placed a $25 million bounty on Maduro through t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
New World Screw Worm: A Threat to Dairy?
The dairy industry continues to evolve, though it is facing new challenges. Through September, milk production is up 97 pounds per head in 2025 over 2024 and has increased steadily for several years. Further, there is a migration in dairy cows, with the southern plains growing in cow numbers. T...
Where is the Hog Market Headed? Rosy Early Outlook for 2026.
Lean hog futures saw an unexpected rally to conclude 2025 with the market rebounding from an autumn selloff. The rebound was sufficiently strong to push deferred futures to new contract highs and nearby contracts just a few dollar shy of their contract highs. Despite this futures rally, physica...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 26, 2025 – January 1, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 118,700 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 24 percent from the previous week, but down 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 172,000 MT were down 60 percent from the p...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.46/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6125/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Livestock Round Up: 2025 Dietary Guidelines, Meat is Back
The USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently released the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). The headline developments were a direct reversal of the 2015 guidelines, which were the first to not include a recommendation to consume meat based in part on sustai...
Oilseed Highlights: Oilseed Demand Slumps while Vegoils Rise
The Market With just two days left before the January WASDE, the soy complex is trading above week-ago levels, but that fact belies the weakness that has enveloped the market since late November. Skepticism over China’s long-term commitment to U.S. soybean purchases – especial...
Transportation and Export Report - 7 January
WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building on the best-in-class i...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Policy Potpourri
Meat Can’t Be Beat: As if the protein craze needed any help, the Trump Administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans urges consumers to “prioritize protein at every meal.” It also recommends full fat dairy while limiting sugar and highly processed foods. The emph...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.67/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.4/short ton, up $5.9 from y...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5625/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Labeling Away Inflation
Canada initiated action more than two years ago to fight high grocery prices. The plan was hatched after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded a “comprehensive” approach to reducing grocery prices. His ultimatum was to “stabilize” food prices that were inflating at...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply again last week, plunging deeper into negative territory and reached their second lowest value back to at least 2010. Margins fell $144/head week over week to –$314 as fed cattle prices rose another $2.83/cwt while the Choice cutout plunged $14.20/...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space for the third straight week as technical conditions deteriorated further. Funds shed 34,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn and soybeans accounting for mo...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
MAHA and 2026 USDA Regulations
USDA has announced several new rules and regulations to take effect in 2026, with several aligning with the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) goals. Dietary Guidelines for Americans: The 2025 dietary guidelines were supposed to be released by the end of 2025, but with the govern...
Formalizing Protectionism; Anti-GMO Replay; Selective Analysis
Formalizing Protectionism The EU’s 27 farm ministers are headed to Brussels on Wednesday ahead of the EU’s formal signing of a trade agreement with Mercosur on 12 January. France has already announced its support for the trade agreement with South America provided Brussels approves...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.62/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.9 from yest...
Market Commentary: New Year Looks Like Old Year
Traders closed out an overall lower week with more of the same. There was a new contract low in SRW, but a late rally pushed HRW slightly into the green for the day but not for the week. Traders brushed off increasing Russia-Ukraine hostilities and any risk of winterkill in wheat. It was a fift...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.4575/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, down $3...
New Bridge Payments Restore Profitability
On 31 December the USDA announced the per acre payment rates for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program for producers hit by the ongoing tariffs. Cotton and rice will receive the highest payments. On 15 December WPI estimated the upcoming payments, with cotton and rice at the top of t...
Happy New Year!
The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forward to serving you in 2026! Please note that our next report will be issued on Friday, 2 January as the U.S. markets are closed for th...
Market Commentary: January WASDE is the Future
The pre-holiday risk-off, profit-taking mode continued on the last trading day of 2025. Traders closed out the calendar year with the expected low-level enthusiasm. Positions were tidied up with few fresh inputs as the past is the past and the future is now the USDA January WASDE report. ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4025/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.4/short ton, down $...
Beef and Pork Past, Present and Future
USDA’s November slaughter data helps decode some of the outlook for 2026. There are the known knowns - cattle and hog numbers are down, weights are up, and the breeding inventory for cattle is growing while for hogs it remains constant. But stabilized dairy cow slaughter, lower sow slaugh...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Fail to Excite Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Down on Technical Trade
The CBOT traded mostly lower on Tuesday with funds remaining dedicated sellers. The motivation for their selling stems partially from pre-holiday risk-off trading and partially from the technical weakness enveloping the charts. Corn was the downside leader for the second straight day, though ob...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6225/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Profit Tanking Sink CBOT
Grains and oilseeds nearly all traded lower to start the week with profit taking driving most of the action as the CBOT enters another holiday-shortened week. The only market to finish higher was soyoil, where a geopolitical tension driving bounce in crude oil helped support the vegoil. Improve...
Grinch Close for 2025
According to stock market statisticians, the S&P 500 stock index historically makes an average of 1.3 to 1.4 percent gains during the last five days of December and the first two days of January. The so-called Santa Clause rally has happened nearly 80 percent of the time, with analysts attr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.635/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $4.1...
Market Commentary: Grains Give up Gains while Cattle Turn Higher on Cash Trade
The CBOT saw its typical low-volume post-Christmas trading session on Friday, but low trading volume didn’t stop the markets from making some notable technical moves. The first of which, on a broad scale, is that early strength in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat, all f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down $0.7 fro...
Holiday Schedule
Financial markets will be closed on Thursday, 25 December for the Christmas holiday. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report on Thursday. WPI wishes everyone a joyous and safe holiday. WPI will resume operations on Friday, 26 December. Note that Ag Perspectives will be providing ma...
Market Commentary: Exports, Conflict, Dry Weather Boost CBOT Before Holiday
The CBOT was mostly higher before the Christmas holiday with grains in the lead, though with each market seeing a different fundamental driver. Wheat futures rallied on the once-again-escalating tensions in the Black Sea and dry weather in the U.S. southern plains that has left the wheat crop v...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6325/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $308.1/short ton, up $3.9 from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and corn. Funds shed nearly 170,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with about 90 percent of that coming from...
Market Commentary: The Tempo not the Quantum
Everyone knows the volume traded this week will be lower, but there is no break in the directional adjustments. The corn market still had to continue its march higher, worries about wheat supplies moving out of Ukraine and even volume was not totally lower with soymeal and lean hog trading keep...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.17/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.515/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $304.2/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75.5 million head, up 1 percent from December 2024, and up slightly from 1 September 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.95 million head, was down 1 percent from last year and up sligh...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week, extending their move into negative territory after early December’s strong profits. Margins fell another $65/head to –$140 as fed cattle prices held firm while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $2/cwt. The tightening spread reflects...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Short-Covering and Positive Export Data
The CBOT turned higher on Monday with positive export data from USDA and a healthy dose of bottom-picking and pre-holiday short covering driving the upside action. Corn was the upside leader for the day as export shipments remain strong with foreign buyers and end-users picking up the purchase...
Cattle on Feed for Dec 2025
USDA reports U.S. Cattle on Feed down 2 percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.7 million head on December 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.60 million head, 11 percent below 2024. Marketings of during November totaled 1.52 million...
WTO Gets Trumped; Novel Remains Unusual; Cheese Diversion
WTO Gets Trumped The WTO was thrown out back on 2 April when President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs. The tariffs totally violated U.S. obligations under the WTO but the signal was clear that the U.S. would no longer be constrained by any agreements at the WTO. Still, the Administratio...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from y...
Beef Market Recap and Outlook
On 21 November, Tyson Foods, one of the largest beef packing companies in the United States, announced it will close its cattle slaughter facility in Lexington, Nebraska, and reduce its beef operations in Amarillo, Texas, down to a single, full-capacity shift. Based on estimated slaughter at bo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk freight markets are mixed this week with pre-holiday trade driving diverging trends. The Capesize sector saw some strength, primarily in the Atlantic, with demand for Brazilian loadings driving the market. Panamax and Supramax markets, in contrast, saw weaker pricing as ballaster...
Market Commentary: Volume Gives Way as Bearish Slide Moderates
There was lower volume in the grain pits today, with perhaps some stronger interest in the last few days of holiday shopping. Traders were not buying corn or soybeans for their loved ones today, but maybe a wee bit of HRS, which closed up today and uniquely was higher for the week. There were...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record Low Placements, Second Lowest Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of November since the series began in 1996, dropping 11 percent on the year due to a tight cattle su...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0975/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.4925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $0.8...
It’s Official, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Record for 2025
December is upon us and the fall calf run all but ended, the beef industry is finalizing its estimates of 2025 profitability and market performance. For cow-calf producers, the results from all but the last two weeks of the year indicate profits easily hit a record high, even on an inflation-ad...
Market Commentary: Corn Firm, Bean Weak, Weak Wheat Rebound
Overall, it remains a sideways market with corn showing the most confidence but overall market weakness that is both seasonal, and reflective of the fundamentals. China’s purchases of soybeans are now humdrum, but rumor of a possible Chinese corn purchase added a little spice to the marke...
Livestock Roundup: Meat Market Recap, Beef is Driver
Reported November meat sales data show meat department sales were positive and have remained so since Q1 of 2023. In all cases, dollar gains were from a combination of inflation and demand growth. Indeed, meat demand has remained remarkably resilient through 2025. On a per capita basis, chicken...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5225/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, up $0.2 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments data for the week ending Nov 27, 2025...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 2 December. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Wheat, Soybeans Fall Further
Bears were once again in charge of the CBOT on Wednesday, though they temporarily relinquished control of the corn market to bulls. Funds were aggressive sellers again in soybeans, soymeal, and wheat futures amid bearish fundamentals for each of the commodities and pushed wheat to a new contrac...
Europe; Greening; AI; Ice Cream; UPFs; Algorithms
Europe Pivot Point EU leaders will hold a very pivotal meeting tomorrow covering a range of issues including the use of Russian assets and security guarantees for Ukraine, and a trade agreement with Mercosur. More importantly, their reputations are at risk. President Trump predicts Europe&rsquo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0625/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, down $4.2...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...
Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers
Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...
Bearish Sugar Prices to Continue Despite Production Increases
The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.119 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down 1,800 STRV from November as the decrease in expected imports of refined organic and specialty sugar, which pays the high tier, out of quota duty, more than offsets the increase in beginning stocks and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.365/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.095/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $302.4/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2075/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7175/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $303.5/short ton, up $1 fr...
Farmer Bridge Assistance Program Early Details
The USDA will base the $12 billion in farmer payments it recently announced under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program on 2025 planted acreage. The department announced that acreage reports, as of 19 December, by 5 p.m., should be “accurate.” Payment rates will be announced th...
Market Commentary: Bear, Bear, Every Where a Bear
Today was National Poinsettia Day, a plant that is supposed to symbolize goodwill and success but that is only true for the bears today. There was red all over Chicago and New York as investors counted their blessings of too much grain and too much risk. The only thing rising in value was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7675/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, up...
Export Sales
U.S. Export Sales and Shipments for the week ending Nov 13, 2025...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were softer last week with Capesize markets seeing weaker interest from East Australia and other Pacific locales. Traders are describing spot tonnage in the Pacific as “abundant”, a mentality that is pressuring rates. Similarly, demand for C3 ex Brazil and West Afri...
Trade Deficit Shrinks, Fed Cuts Federal Funds Rate at December
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020. The decline in the deficit was due to a large increase in exports, which rose $8.4 billion. Imports were up a more modest $1.9 billion. The President may see this as a win, as the cor...
WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheets
Following the December WASDE report from Tuesday, WPI has updated our corn, wheat, and soybean supply and use models to examine market trends for the rest of MY 2025/26. Current indications for U.S. grain complex point to uneven fundamentals across these crops, particularly in terms of global e...
Market Commentary: Low Holiday Cheer
Grain markets traded without conviction today, see-sawing around unchanged and with modest volume. Aggies had WASDE day and outside markets had Fed day, and both events this week were kind of a bust. Some might consider it a positive to lack drama interrupting the holiday period, and that is th...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday. The WASDE forecast corn exports for MY 2025-26 hitting a record high, topping the previous record of last year. The net change in the export forecast from a month ago was 125 million bushels, or a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.335/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.935/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $302.1/short ton, up $0.9 from y...
No Trade Bailout; Statements Betray USMCA
No Trade Bailout The Trump Administration’s $12 billion economic assistance package to farmers is being framed by the media as a “bailout” for the adverse impact of the President’s tariffs and trade wars. But there is no adverse impact in most instances. Wheat prices hav...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.2/short ton, down $0.1...
Market Commentary: China Buys While Timeline Changes; Wheat Drops on Export Outlook
Once again, the headlines for CBOT trade revolved around news from China, this time in support of both bulls and bears. Bulls benefited from the news of “flash” export sales of 17 Mbu to China and unknown destinations, which was an obvious encouragement to the market. One of the rea...
WASDE Corn - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average corn price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $4.00 per bushel. Global corn stocks are down 2.2 million to 279.2 million tons...
WASDE Wheat - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average wheat price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $5.00 per bushel. Global wheat stocks rose 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries...
WASDE Soybeans - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average prices are presently unchanged for U.S. soybeans at $10.50 per bushel, for soymeal at $300 per short-ton, and for soyoil at 53 cents per pound. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 0.4 million tons to 122.4 million, m...
Market Commentary: Corn Exports Hit Record; WASDE Little Changed for Soy, Wheat
The CBOT wasn’t expecting much from the December WASDE report and USDA delivered fully on those expectations. The headline numbers were the increase of corn exports to a record-breaking 3.2 Bbu and a commensurate reduction in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat were left out of the balance...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.8725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $5 f...
Trump Announces Farm Bailout
President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs. The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Federal Reserve Meeting and Hearing This Week
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Wednesday to decide what to do about short-term interest rates. The Federal Funds Futures market puts the chance of a rate cut at about 90 percent following cuts in September and October. That meeting will also be when the Fed publishes a ne...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9375/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $306.3/short ton, down $1...
One Sided Equation; Then and Now
One Sided Equation Canada and Mexico are America’s largest trading partners. U.S. exports of row crop commodities have benefited from the USMCA, as highlighted by Mexico’s retraction of its proposal to ban GMO corn, and main line U.S. agricultural groups lined up last week at the US...
Market Commentary: Cattle are Hot Again, Grain Not so Much
Despite assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the announcement this morning of nearly a half million tons of new soybean sales to China, the trade just doesn’t see the plausibility of a full 12 MMT of beans being bought near-term by Beijing. Particularly not when commitment...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4475/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0525/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Expected Crop Shifts Diminishing
WPI’s second fall acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres that will not quite offset corn area losses while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, wh...
USMCA Review Underway
U.S. trade officials have started the formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), inviting public comment ahead of next year's renegotiation of the pact. Under the process, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will eventually be required to provide reports...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
With China back in the market for U.S. soybeans and soy product margins diverging from recent patterns, soybean crushing margins are again in a state of uncertainty. Volatility in CBOT board soybean crush margins has lessened over the past month with the soybean futures rally being almost equal...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4025/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.195/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...
Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism
Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.3/short ton, down $0...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain on Black Sea Tensions; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT initially looked set for a quiet day of post-holiday trade on Tuesday, but that was before Russian President Putin elevated political tensions in the Black Sea region. Putin threatened to increase attacks on Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian tanker vessel...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $3 from yes...
End of the Year: Lots to Do and a Short Time to Get it Done
Congress returns this week from their Thanksgiving recess to wrap up end-of-year priorities. There are only 13 days of legislative sessions remaining in the House, with 12 days before the 30 January deadline when the government runs out of money once again. The Senate has 12 days of session rem...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins surged for a fourth consecutive week, jumping $108/head to $228 and marking the strongest profitability in more than two years. Margins rose on the combination of a $5.88/cwt decline in live cattle and an $13.20/cwt drop in dressed cattle prices, while the Choice cutout ease...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.35/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.28/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $314.6/short ton, down $4.1...
Macro Economic Data: Positive but Volatile
Growth in retail sales lost some momentum in September, capping off what otherwise had been a solid quarter of spending for U.S. consumers. Looking at the headline, overall sales rose 0.2 percent in September – the fourth consecutive monthly increase – but lagged the consensus expec...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Thanksgiving Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 27 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 28 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.315/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Cattle on Feed for Nov 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below November 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.04 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle dur...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $2.1 fr...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2325/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, down...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.25/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $1.6 from...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September employment report and the August’s trade numbers. But they tell an uncertain story. especially when coupled with the Consumer Price Rep...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting global supply expectations. In mid-October, the January crush margin hit a rally high of 155 cents/bushel before it dropped to a contract low of...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.225/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $4...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, down $8...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.59/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $327/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5725/bushel, up $0.3275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $330.8/short ton, up $8.3 from...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to decrease 10 million bushels to 290. The projected U.S. season-average soybean price received by farmers is increased 50 cents to $10.50 per bushel. The global ending stocks of soybeans is reduced 2.0 million tons to 122.0...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. corn ending stocks to increase 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The projected U.S. season-average corn price received by farmers is increased 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel; The global ending stocks of corn is reduced slightly to 281.3 million ton...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.245/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $322.5/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Pre-WASDE Cash Market Soybean Signals
Writing about what the markets say will happen the day before a major USDA report is always a risky - but still useful - endeavor. This year, the recent U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade war/trade deal intensify these dynamics of risk and worthiness. The shutdown, of course, by remo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.47/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $321/short ton, up $4.1 from yester...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, down $3.1 f...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $2.9 from yester...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.17/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.1/short ton, up $4.4 f...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.075/bushel, down $0.2675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $312.7/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers. Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harve...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.4/short ton, down $3...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $0.8 fro...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0775/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, up $6.9...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.945/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $2.2 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador. The appointment is notable because Callahan does not come from Capitol Hill or other warrens of political expediency when it comes to powe...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9525/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $306.5/short ton, up $8.3 from ye...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-free trade advertisement in Ontario. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is bragging that the ad was effective and chortles over the ad getting under Tr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were still very weak by historical records (-$143/head) but at least started to trend in the right direction. Beef values are holding steady hea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...
Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.5 million head, or 97 percent of last year. Placements were higher than forecast, and marketings were near pre-report estimates. This was the quarterly report showing steers and heifers on feed...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.305/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6775/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.7 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 9-15, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 618,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 372,400 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Transportation and Export Report - January 22, 2026
WPI is pleased to release the third week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by bui...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.645/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $0.2...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 21 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, up $1.6...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
U.S. financial markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, 19 January. As a result, WPI’s offices will be closed, and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published that day. Ag Perspectives will resume on Tuesday, 20 January...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Government Funding Update: ICE Policy Risks
This past fall the U.S. government was shutdown for the longest period in history, with a temporary reprieve reached to re-open the government until the end of this month (30 January). Regardless of what happens, USDA was funded for the year under the compromise package, thus keeping the agency...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Transportation and Export Report - January 15, 2026
WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building o...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, down $2.7 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 2 - 8, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 156,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 32 percent from the previous week, but down 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 303,300 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week, but down 29 perc...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.425/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $0.3 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...
WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday, the first of the year. Beef production is still down compared to 2024, but projections were raised for 2026. Beef production was raised as heavier slaughter weights more than offset the reduction i...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
WASDE Corn - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for larger production and higher feed residual usage to result in greater ending stocks: Corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million acre ris...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
India Holds Out; USMCA Friction; AI and Ag
India Holds Out The most disappointed of U.S. trading partners has to be India. It has long held hope that it would succeed China as the largest foreign supplier to the American market. It is a natural foil to China, which has been politely designated by Washington as a strategic competitor and...
WASDE Soybeans - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is increased by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1125/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.49/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $5.4...
Venezuela Oil Situation and Oil Price Impacts
The world woke up on 3 January to news of the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela. Few expected this move from the U.S. administration, but in hindsight it may not have been surprising. The Biden administration had placed a $25 million bounty on Maduro through t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
New World Screw Worm: A Threat to Dairy?
The dairy industry continues to evolve, though it is facing new challenges. Through September, milk production is up 97 pounds per head in 2025 over 2024 and has increased steadily for several years. Further, there is a migration in dairy cows, with the southern plains growing in cow numbers. T...
Where is the Hog Market Headed? Rosy Early Outlook for 2026.
Lean hog futures saw an unexpected rally to conclude 2025 with the market rebounding from an autumn selloff. The rebound was sufficiently strong to push deferred futures to new contract highs and nearby contracts just a few dollar shy of their contract highs. Despite this futures rally, physica...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 26, 2025 – January 1, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 118,700 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 24 percent from the previous week, but down 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 172,000 MT were down 60 percent from the p...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.46/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6125/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Livestock Round Up: 2025 Dietary Guidelines, Meat is Back
The USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently released the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). The headline developments were a direct reversal of the 2015 guidelines, which were the first to not include a recommendation to consume meat based in part on sustai...
Oilseed Highlights: Oilseed Demand Slumps while Vegoils Rise
The Market With just two days left before the January WASDE, the soy complex is trading above week-ago levels, but that fact belies the weakness that has enveloped the market since late November. Skepticism over China’s long-term commitment to U.S. soybean purchases – especial...
Transportation and Export Report - 7 January
WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building on the best-in-class i...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Policy Potpourri
Meat Can’t Be Beat: As if the protein craze needed any help, the Trump Administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans urges consumers to “prioritize protein at every meal.” It also recommends full fat dairy while limiting sugar and highly processed foods. The emph...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.67/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.4/short ton, up $5.9 from y...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5625/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Labeling Away Inflation
Canada initiated action more than two years ago to fight high grocery prices. The plan was hatched after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded a “comprehensive” approach to reducing grocery prices. His ultimatum was to “stabilize” food prices that were inflating at...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply again last week, plunging deeper into negative territory and reached their second lowest value back to at least 2010. Margins fell $144/head week over week to –$314 as fed cattle prices rose another $2.83/cwt while the Choice cutout plunged $14.20/...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space for the third straight week as technical conditions deteriorated further. Funds shed 34,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn and soybeans accounting for mo...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
MAHA and 2026 USDA Regulations
USDA has announced several new rules and regulations to take effect in 2026, with several aligning with the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) goals. Dietary Guidelines for Americans: The 2025 dietary guidelines were supposed to be released by the end of 2025, but with the govern...
Formalizing Protectionism; Anti-GMO Replay; Selective Analysis
Formalizing Protectionism The EU’s 27 farm ministers are headed to Brussels on Wednesday ahead of the EU’s formal signing of a trade agreement with Mercosur on 12 January. France has already announced its support for the trade agreement with South America provided Brussels approves...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.62/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.9 from yest...
Market Commentary: New Year Looks Like Old Year
Traders closed out an overall lower week with more of the same. There was a new contract low in SRW, but a late rally pushed HRW slightly into the green for the day but not for the week. Traders brushed off increasing Russia-Ukraine hostilities and any risk of winterkill in wheat. It was a fift...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.4575/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, down $3...
New Bridge Payments Restore Profitability
On 31 December the USDA announced the per acre payment rates for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program for producers hit by the ongoing tariffs. Cotton and rice will receive the highest payments. On 15 December WPI estimated the upcoming payments, with cotton and rice at the top of t...
Happy New Year!
The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forward to serving you in 2026! Please note that our next report will be issued on Friday, 2 January as the U.S. markets are closed for th...
Market Commentary: January WASDE is the Future
The pre-holiday risk-off, profit-taking mode continued on the last trading day of 2025. Traders closed out the calendar year with the expected low-level enthusiasm. Positions were tidied up with few fresh inputs as the past is the past and the future is now the USDA January WASDE report. ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4025/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.4/short ton, down $...
Beef and Pork Past, Present and Future
USDA’s November slaughter data helps decode some of the outlook for 2026. There are the known knowns - cattle and hog numbers are down, weights are up, and the breeding inventory for cattle is growing while for hogs it remains constant. But stabilized dairy cow slaughter, lower sow slaugh...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Fail to Excite Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Down on Technical Trade
The CBOT traded mostly lower on Tuesday with funds remaining dedicated sellers. The motivation for their selling stems partially from pre-holiday risk-off trading and partially from the technical weakness enveloping the charts. Corn was the downside leader for the second straight day, though ob...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6225/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Profit Tanking Sink CBOT
Grains and oilseeds nearly all traded lower to start the week with profit taking driving most of the action as the CBOT enters another holiday-shortened week. The only market to finish higher was soyoil, where a geopolitical tension driving bounce in crude oil helped support the vegoil. Improve...
Grinch Close for 2025
According to stock market statisticians, the S&P 500 stock index historically makes an average of 1.3 to 1.4 percent gains during the last five days of December and the first two days of January. The so-called Santa Clause rally has happened nearly 80 percent of the time, with analysts attr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.635/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $4.1...
Market Commentary: Grains Give up Gains while Cattle Turn Higher on Cash Trade
The CBOT saw its typical low-volume post-Christmas trading session on Friday, but low trading volume didn’t stop the markets from making some notable technical moves. The first of which, on a broad scale, is that early strength in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat, all f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down $0.7 fro...
Holiday Schedule
Financial markets will be closed on Thursday, 25 December for the Christmas holiday. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report on Thursday. WPI wishes everyone a joyous and safe holiday. WPI will resume operations on Friday, 26 December. Note that Ag Perspectives will be providing ma...
Market Commentary: Exports, Conflict, Dry Weather Boost CBOT Before Holiday
The CBOT was mostly higher before the Christmas holiday with grains in the lead, though with each market seeing a different fundamental driver. Wheat futures rallied on the once-again-escalating tensions in the Black Sea and dry weather in the U.S. southern plains that has left the wheat crop v...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6325/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $308.1/short ton, up $3.9 from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and corn. Funds shed nearly 170,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with about 90 percent of that coming from...
Market Commentary: The Tempo not the Quantum
Everyone knows the volume traded this week will be lower, but there is no break in the directional adjustments. The corn market still had to continue its march higher, worries about wheat supplies moving out of Ukraine and even volume was not totally lower with soymeal and lean hog trading keep...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.17/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.515/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $304.2/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75.5 million head, up 1 percent from December 2024, and up slightly from 1 September 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.95 million head, was down 1 percent from last year and up sligh...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week, extending their move into negative territory after early December’s strong profits. Margins fell another $65/head to –$140 as fed cattle prices held firm while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $2/cwt. The tightening spread reflects...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Short-Covering and Positive Export Data
The CBOT turned higher on Monday with positive export data from USDA and a healthy dose of bottom-picking and pre-holiday short covering driving the upside action. Corn was the upside leader for the day as export shipments remain strong with foreign buyers and end-users picking up the purchase...
Cattle on Feed for Dec 2025
USDA reports U.S. Cattle on Feed down 2 percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.7 million head on December 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.60 million head, 11 percent below 2024. Marketings of during November totaled 1.52 million...
WTO Gets Trumped; Novel Remains Unusual; Cheese Diversion
WTO Gets Trumped The WTO was thrown out back on 2 April when President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs. The tariffs totally violated U.S. obligations under the WTO but the signal was clear that the U.S. would no longer be constrained by any agreements at the WTO. Still, the Administratio...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from y...
Beef Market Recap and Outlook
On 21 November, Tyson Foods, one of the largest beef packing companies in the United States, announced it will close its cattle slaughter facility in Lexington, Nebraska, and reduce its beef operations in Amarillo, Texas, down to a single, full-capacity shift. Based on estimated slaughter at bo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk freight markets are mixed this week with pre-holiday trade driving diverging trends. The Capesize sector saw some strength, primarily in the Atlantic, with demand for Brazilian loadings driving the market. Panamax and Supramax markets, in contrast, saw weaker pricing as ballaster...
Market Commentary: Volume Gives Way as Bearish Slide Moderates
There was lower volume in the grain pits today, with perhaps some stronger interest in the last few days of holiday shopping. Traders were not buying corn or soybeans for their loved ones today, but maybe a wee bit of HRS, which closed up today and uniquely was higher for the week. There were...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record Low Placements, Second Lowest Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of November since the series began in 1996, dropping 11 percent on the year due to a tight cattle su...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0975/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.4925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $0.8...
It’s Official, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Record for 2025
December is upon us and the fall calf run all but ended, the beef industry is finalizing its estimates of 2025 profitability and market performance. For cow-calf producers, the results from all but the last two weeks of the year indicate profits easily hit a record high, even on an inflation-ad...
Market Commentary: Corn Firm, Bean Weak, Weak Wheat Rebound
Overall, it remains a sideways market with corn showing the most confidence but overall market weakness that is both seasonal, and reflective of the fundamentals. China’s purchases of soybeans are now humdrum, but rumor of a possible Chinese corn purchase added a little spice to the marke...
Livestock Roundup: Meat Market Recap, Beef is Driver
Reported November meat sales data show meat department sales were positive and have remained so since Q1 of 2023. In all cases, dollar gains were from a combination of inflation and demand growth. Indeed, meat demand has remained remarkably resilient through 2025. On a per capita basis, chicken...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5225/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, up $0.2 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments data for the week ending Nov 27, 2025...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 2 December. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Wheat, Soybeans Fall Further
Bears were once again in charge of the CBOT on Wednesday, though they temporarily relinquished control of the corn market to bulls. Funds were aggressive sellers again in soybeans, soymeal, and wheat futures amid bearish fundamentals for each of the commodities and pushed wheat to a new contrac...
Europe; Greening; AI; Ice Cream; UPFs; Algorithms
Europe Pivot Point EU leaders will hold a very pivotal meeting tomorrow covering a range of issues including the use of Russian assets and security guarantees for Ukraine, and a trade agreement with Mercosur. More importantly, their reputations are at risk. President Trump predicts Europe&rsquo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0625/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, down $4.2...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...
Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers
Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...
Bearish Sugar Prices to Continue Despite Production Increases
The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.119 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down 1,800 STRV from November as the decrease in expected imports of refined organic and specialty sugar, which pays the high tier, out of quota duty, more than offsets the increase in beginning stocks and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.365/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.095/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $302.4/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2075/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7175/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $303.5/short ton, up $1 fr...
Farmer Bridge Assistance Program Early Details
The USDA will base the $12 billion in farmer payments it recently announced under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program on 2025 planted acreage. The department announced that acreage reports, as of 19 December, by 5 p.m., should be “accurate.” Payment rates will be announced th...
Market Commentary: Bear, Bear, Every Where a Bear
Today was National Poinsettia Day, a plant that is supposed to symbolize goodwill and success but that is only true for the bears today. There was red all over Chicago and New York as investors counted their blessings of too much grain and too much risk. The only thing rising in value was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7675/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, up...
Export Sales
U.S. Export Sales and Shipments for the week ending Nov 13, 2025...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were softer last week with Capesize markets seeing weaker interest from East Australia and other Pacific locales. Traders are describing spot tonnage in the Pacific as “abundant”, a mentality that is pressuring rates. Similarly, demand for C3 ex Brazil and West Afri...
Trade Deficit Shrinks, Fed Cuts Federal Funds Rate at December
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020. The decline in the deficit was due to a large increase in exports, which rose $8.4 billion. Imports were up a more modest $1.9 billion. The President may see this as a win, as the cor...
WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheets
Following the December WASDE report from Tuesday, WPI has updated our corn, wheat, and soybean supply and use models to examine market trends for the rest of MY 2025/26. Current indications for U.S. grain complex point to uneven fundamentals across these crops, particularly in terms of global e...
Market Commentary: Low Holiday Cheer
Grain markets traded without conviction today, see-sawing around unchanged and with modest volume. Aggies had WASDE day and outside markets had Fed day, and both events this week were kind of a bust. Some might consider it a positive to lack drama interrupting the holiday period, and that is th...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday. The WASDE forecast corn exports for MY 2025-26 hitting a record high, topping the previous record of last year. The net change in the export forecast from a month ago was 125 million bushels, or a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.335/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.935/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $302.1/short ton, up $0.9 from y...
No Trade Bailout; Statements Betray USMCA
No Trade Bailout The Trump Administration’s $12 billion economic assistance package to farmers is being framed by the media as a “bailout” for the adverse impact of the President’s tariffs and trade wars. But there is no adverse impact in most instances. Wheat prices hav...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.2/short ton, down $0.1...
Market Commentary: China Buys While Timeline Changes; Wheat Drops on Export Outlook
Once again, the headlines for CBOT trade revolved around news from China, this time in support of both bulls and bears. Bulls benefited from the news of “flash” export sales of 17 Mbu to China and unknown destinations, which was an obvious encouragement to the market. One of the rea...
WASDE Corn - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average corn price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $4.00 per bushel. Global corn stocks are down 2.2 million to 279.2 million tons...
WASDE Wheat - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average wheat price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $5.00 per bushel. Global wheat stocks rose 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries...
WASDE Soybeans - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average prices are presently unchanged for U.S. soybeans at $10.50 per bushel, for soymeal at $300 per short-ton, and for soyoil at 53 cents per pound. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 0.4 million tons to 122.4 million, m...
Market Commentary: Corn Exports Hit Record; WASDE Little Changed for Soy, Wheat
The CBOT wasn’t expecting much from the December WASDE report and USDA delivered fully on those expectations. The headline numbers were the increase of corn exports to a record-breaking 3.2 Bbu and a commensurate reduction in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat were left out of the balance...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.8725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $5 f...
Trump Announces Farm Bailout
President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs. The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Federal Reserve Meeting and Hearing This Week
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Wednesday to decide what to do about short-term interest rates. The Federal Funds Futures market puts the chance of a rate cut at about 90 percent following cuts in September and October. That meeting will also be when the Fed publishes a ne...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9375/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $306.3/short ton, down $1...
One Sided Equation; Then and Now
One Sided Equation Canada and Mexico are America’s largest trading partners. U.S. exports of row crop commodities have benefited from the USMCA, as highlighted by Mexico’s retraction of its proposal to ban GMO corn, and main line U.S. agricultural groups lined up last week at the US...
Market Commentary: Cattle are Hot Again, Grain Not so Much
Despite assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the announcement this morning of nearly a half million tons of new soybean sales to China, the trade just doesn’t see the plausibility of a full 12 MMT of beans being bought near-term by Beijing. Particularly not when commitment...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4475/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0525/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Expected Crop Shifts Diminishing
WPI’s second fall acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres that will not quite offset corn area losses while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, wh...
USMCA Review Underway
U.S. trade officials have started the formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), inviting public comment ahead of next year's renegotiation of the pact. Under the process, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will eventually be required to provide reports...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
With China back in the market for U.S. soybeans and soy product margins diverging from recent patterns, soybean crushing margins are again in a state of uncertainty. Volatility in CBOT board soybean crush margins has lessened over the past month with the soybean futures rally being almost equal...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4025/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.195/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...
Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism
Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.3/short ton, down $0...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain on Black Sea Tensions; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT initially looked set for a quiet day of post-holiday trade on Tuesday, but that was before Russian President Putin elevated political tensions in the Black Sea region. Putin threatened to increase attacks on Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian tanker vessel...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $3 from yes...
End of the Year: Lots to Do and a Short Time to Get it Done
Congress returns this week from their Thanksgiving recess to wrap up end-of-year priorities. There are only 13 days of legislative sessions remaining in the House, with 12 days before the 30 January deadline when the government runs out of money once again. The Senate has 12 days of session rem...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins surged for a fourth consecutive week, jumping $108/head to $228 and marking the strongest profitability in more than two years. Margins rose on the combination of a $5.88/cwt decline in live cattle and an $13.20/cwt drop in dressed cattle prices, while the Choice cutout ease...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.35/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.28/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $314.6/short ton, down $4.1...
Macro Economic Data: Positive but Volatile
Growth in retail sales lost some momentum in September, capping off what otherwise had been a solid quarter of spending for U.S. consumers. Looking at the headline, overall sales rose 0.2 percent in September – the fourth consecutive monthly increase – but lagged the consensus expec...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Thanksgiving Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 27 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 28 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.315/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Cattle on Feed for Nov 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below November 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.04 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle dur...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $2.1 fr...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2325/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, down...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.25/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $1.6 from...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September employment report and the August’s trade numbers. But they tell an uncertain story. especially when coupled with the Consumer Price Rep...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting global supply expectations. In mid-October, the January crush margin hit a rally high of 155 cents/bushel before it dropped to a contract low of...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.225/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $4...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, down $8...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.59/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $327/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5725/bushel, up $0.3275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $330.8/short ton, up $8.3 from...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to decrease 10 million bushels to 290. The projected U.S. season-average soybean price received by farmers is increased 50 cents to $10.50 per bushel. The global ending stocks of soybeans is reduced 2.0 million tons to 122.0...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. corn ending stocks to increase 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The projected U.S. season-average corn price received by farmers is increased 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel; The global ending stocks of corn is reduced slightly to 281.3 million ton...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.245/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $322.5/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Pre-WASDE Cash Market Soybean Signals
Writing about what the markets say will happen the day before a major USDA report is always a risky - but still useful - endeavor. This year, the recent U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade war/trade deal intensify these dynamics of risk and worthiness. The shutdown, of course, by remo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.47/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $321/short ton, up $4.1 from yester...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, down $3.1 f...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $2.9 from yester...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.17/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.1/short ton, up $4.4 f...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.075/bushel, down $0.2675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $312.7/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers. Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harve...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.4/short ton, down $3...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $0.8 fro...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0775/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, up $6.9...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.945/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $2.2 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador. The appointment is notable because Callahan does not come from Capitol Hill or other warrens of political expediency when it comes to powe...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9525/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $306.5/short ton, up $8.3 from ye...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-free trade advertisement in Ontario. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is bragging that the ad was effective and chortles over the ad getting under Tr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were still very weak by historical records (-$143/head) but at least started to trend in the right direction. Beef values are holding steady hea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...