Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism
Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...
End of the Year: Lots to Do and a Short Time to Get it Done
Congress returns this week from their Thanksgiving recess to wrap up end-of-year priorities. There are only 13 days of legislative sessions remaining in the House, with 12 days before the 30 January deadline when the government runs out of money once again. The Senate has 12 days of session rem...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador. The appointment is notable because Callahan does not come from Capitol Hill or other warrens of political expediency when it comes to powe...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-free trade advertisement in Ontario. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is bragging that the ad was effective and chortles over the ad getting under Tr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Minority Supplier; Trade “Agreements”
Minority Supplier Following negotiations with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects China to revive substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans and to delay expanding its licensing requirement for rare earths. The Treasury lead claims to und...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which were largely a bust. Gary wrote, “Live cattle futures pulled back sharply on Wednesday with no apparent fundamental catalyst, other than...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. The President called on ranchers to lower their prices even though they are set by the market based on supply and demand. Jawboning will caus...
Splitting Decision
Policymaking in democracies is hard and nowhere is that truer than in the multinational setting of the European Union. Belatedly, a larger construct of EU policymakers have come to appreciate that genetic engineering is technology, and Europe is falling behind in an increasingly technological w...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Ag Complexity; Some Get Disciplined; Vice Pays to Virtue
Ag Complexity President Trump hasn’t met a problem he doesn’t think he can solve, and that is a good thing, but it does run into the reality of systems complexity. His effort to help Argentina, a country with what he sees as sympatico political leanings and near collapse from debt i...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
Sorry Soy; Strategy for Generational Rebuttal
Sorry Soy Thomas Suddes, a reporter for The Plain Dealer cutely writes that Trump’s bubble-gum-and-twine trade “policy” has wrecked America-to-China soybean sales. He is correct that the current Sino-American trade war has ended U.S. soybean sales to the Middle Kingdom, someth...
Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added
Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions starting 1 November in retaliation, until he signaled everything was just a bad day. China then sanctioned a U.S. shipping subsidiary. Some...
Various Campaigns Diagnosed; EU Dependency
Various Campaigns Diagnosed Climate Change: Since the Paris Accord in 2015, environmentalists have poured hundreds of millions of dollars publicizing the dangers of climate change. They’ve had the buy-in from elites and a cooperative media ecosystem giving attention to the “cr...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Reconciliation Bill Increases Crop Payments
The reconciliation bill signed into law on 4 July, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill, increased statutory reference prices under the Agricultural Risk Payments (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs and made some changes to the effective reference prices (ERP) which are used to calculate pay...
Animal Welfare Metrics; Transatlantic NTB’s; More Elegant Trade Rules
Animal Welfare Metrics The U.S. Justice Department is suing California over its Prop 12 animal welfare standards adversely impacting hog and poultry producers in other states. For some, the suit is a rejection of federalism (states rights) even as the Trump Administration seeks to defang Washin...
WTO Stalemate; Off Again, On Again; Dem Bones
WTO Stalemate The World Trade Organization remains unable to move forward on its reform agenda under a stalemate over issues like the current consensus requirement, re-establishing the appellate level in dispute settlement, and use of special and differential treatment. The pending confirmation...
New Truck Tariffs to Hit Mexico
President Trump said yesterday that all medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the U.S. will face a 25 percent tariff rate starting 1 November. That marks a significant escalation of Trump’s effort to protect U.S. companies from foreign competition. He had previously stat...
Breaking Convention
No political leader has broken rules and norms like President Trump but only because previous leaders refused to bravely declare that the emperor has no clothes. The list of upended conventions is long and still growing. Just this past week it was investors noting how economists have been wrong...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data typically reported in the Thursday livestock report, including slaughter data and livestock and poultry inventories. USDA posted o...
Shutdown Impacts on Ag
In the now fifth U.S. government shutdown in the past 30 years, everyone is guessing about its duration because each shutdown has had its own unique circumstances. The online prediction markets have a range of guesses, all tending toward the shorter side of the last one under Mr. Trump, 35 days...
Trade versus Self-Sufficiency
David Ricardo’s concept of comparative advantage has not been disproven; it has just been ignored for the past 200 years. While there has been progress toward untethered competition in the post-war period, American labor unions became most vocal against trade agreements during the Obama A...
Impact of Potential Government Shutdown
It is 30 September, the last day of the fiscal year. Congress must pass a funding bill by midnight tonight or face a government shutdown. The odds are that a shutdown is coming, given the House is in recess until tomorrow, 1 October. President Trump met with the top Congressional leadership at...
Chemically Named; Farms In, Government Out
Chemically Named Europe’s wine grape growers are complaining that EU regulations prohibit them from using the fungicide sodium hydrogen carbonate. It was approved as a basic substance but then a manufacturer incorporated it as the active ingredient in a manufactured product and EU regulat...
Flow of Government Funds to Agriculture
In the face of increasing input costs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to protect U.S. farmers and ranchers from high, and volatile, input costs spanning fertilizer, fuel, seed, and equipment and ensuring competi...
International Disorder
President Trump receives harsh criticism for disrupting the international order and his UN speech is no different. His critics called it meandering, full of grievances and complaints but lacking answers. A more objective view is to question authority or else it will never change or improve. The...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had proposed during his campaign. The final decision, however, came as the country is desperate for U.S. dollars to shore up the flagging peso. Furthe...
Surreptitious NTB; Geopolitical Sacrifices; Strategic Opposition
Surreptitious NTB Import inspectors in Western democracies would blow the whistle if politically told to single out and reject product from a specific foreign country on specious reasons. But Chinese import inspectors serve the goals of the all-powerful state. Dim Sums notes a sudden spike in C...
Convenience over Causation; Rules and Convenience; GI’s in America; Transatlantic Work Views
Convenience over Causation A months’ long commitment to delivering in September led to today’s announcement by chemo-phobe RFK, Jr. that, “I think we found an answer to autism” As previously noted, the Trump Administration’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report...
Plan to Rebuild Beef Cattle Supply is Coming This Week
Yesterday, USDA released a statement confirming the detection of New World Screwworm (NSW) in in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the Mexican state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border. The case was confirmed by the National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Sa...
How the EPA’s Anti-Decision Will Affect Biofuels and Soyoil
In mythology or legends, the hero is obviously identified – the “good guy” standing up for justice, not compromising what is right, and displays courage or other noble and admired qualities. Standing in contrast – but not quite opposite – to the hero is the anti-he...
WTO and Trump; Analytically Correct, Predictably Wrong
WTO and Trump To quote Wikipedia, James Bacchus is “an American statesman, scholar, writer, and politician". He also served as a founding member and twice chairman of the WTO’s Appellate Body. He now writes from the Libertarian Cato Institute and provocatively asks why the WTO is no...
Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Supply Down on First Half of Year
U.S. imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in previous years. This decline is primarily due to the loss of tax credits for imported biofuels. Additionally, domestic consumption is also down. In Janua...
No Tariffs, No Reforms; Nōgyō for PM; Turnabout is Fair Play
No Tariffs, No Reforms U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the EU to join him in imposing tariffs on China and India for purchasing Russian oil. EU officials have signaled they are disinclined to use tariffs, but may be willing to impose sanctions on the companies that transact the oil. Sanct...
Outlook for the Fed Meeting This Week
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week with the make-up of the committee still up in the air. Governor Lisa Cook is questionable regarding her attendance after President Trump has sought her to ouster her on mortgage frau...
Chemo-phobia on Steroids
Notably, Congressional Republicans followed the demands of farm groups and added a provision in the latest government funding bill that some say would shield pesticide companies from lawsuits. Companies like Bayer have battled lawsuits for selling pesticides lawfully approved for use by regulat...
Wheat from the Chaff; Europe Gets Squeezed
Wheat from the Chaff An agricultural meeting in Arkansas last week drew 400 to 500 farmers, a much larger group than expected at harvest time. They vented their angst over low commodity prices, high input costs, and consequently low profitability. One estimate from bankers is that farm bankrupt...
EV’s, Pork, and Trade
Last Friday China announced it would impose temporary anti-dumping duties on pork imports from the EU. China's commerce ministry said that the investigation has "preliminarily determined that imports of relevant pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union&nb...
Venting Hypocrisy; Xi – Trump Meeting; Say Cheese Please
Venting Hypocrisy At a BRICS meeting this past weekend, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva characterized President Trump’s use of tariffs as a tool of “blackmail.” The formal definition of blackmail involves demanding benefit from someone in exchange for not reveali...
USG Closure; Ag Gets Special Treatment; Policy Shorts
USG Closure Congressional Democrats are debating whether they should force the U.S. government into closure at the end of this month when the budget (continuing resolution) expires. Back in March, a handful of Democratic U.S. senators joined with the Republicans in ensuring funding through 30 S...
Japan–U.S. Trade Deal Implemented
The U.S.-Japan trade deal is now in place. It provides for a 15 percent tariff on most goods entering from Japan. For goods that were subject to tariffs less than 15 percent will now face higher duties at 15 percent, but goods that faced duties of 15 percent or higher will not increase. The tar...
Inflation Regime Changes and Commodity Market Outlooks
U.S. fiscal and monetary policy is at a crossroads, which is creating uncertainty for macroeconomic and commodity markets. Chief among these concerns is “sticky” inflation that has resisted the Fed’s efforts to control it, which is juxtaposed against a weakening labor market...
Prop 12 Counterattack; Assault on International Organizations; Japan on Point
Prop 12 Counterattack To the great disappointment of key parts of the U.S. agriculture sector, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that California’s Prop 12 is constitutional, and that the state can establish its own rules on meat sold in the state regardless of its origin. The sect...
SCO versus West
Instead of focusing on foes, the transatlantic alliance needs to remediate itself. Media reactions to this past weekend’s Shanghai Cooperation Council was telling. The New York Times was shocked that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “friends.” CNN called it “stark op...
Appellate Court Rules Against Tariffs; Credit Ratings Uncertain
On 28 May, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and ordered that the "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed on 2 April be vacated. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Feder...
Brazil Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
The Foreign Ministry of Brazil notified the U.S. today that it has directed its trade body, Camex, to investigate whether it can retaliate against the 50 percent tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on several goods imported from Brazil. The investigation will conducted be under a law pa...
Technology Impacts; Science and UPF’s; Perpetuating the Museum
Technology Impacts Technology is driving markets around the world, but not always in the same direction or with the same results. Today’s big story surrounded Nvidia, which met revenue expectations and exceeded projected earnings per share, but underwhelmed investors on data center sales...
Future of Tariffs
Some countries have reacted harshly to the tariffs imposed by President Trump, while other countries responded more mutedly or negotiated a settlement. Canada initially retaliated but has now unilaterally reversed some of its retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. after deeming them predominantly...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Protectionists’ Spin; Transatlantic Spin; India’s New Bed
Protectionists’ Spin U.S. President Donald Trump is vilified for statements that his critics say are blatantly untrue, but he is not alone in trying to frame messages to his favor. This past weekend, China’s Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng said that "It goes without saying that [Ame...
Canada Exempts USMCA Products from Tariffs
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump had a telephone conversation last Thursday to discuss trade. By all accounts, the discussion was productive after top trade officials have been meeting for months with little to show. In late July, Trump signed an executive order increasin...
Rearranged Trade Impacts
U.S. tariffs are reordering world trade and may further impact the nation’s agricultural exports. While soybean exports to China are stalled as that nation redirects all of its purchases to South America, that has been a political position that ignores the lower cost of U.S. soybeans. How...
MAHA Draft Report Softens Pesticide Language
On 13 February President Trump signed Executive Order 14212 entitled “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (MAHA),” establishing the commission and charging it to submit an assessment on the status of the health of America, which was submitted on...
Weaponizing Trade; De-Weaponizing MAHA
Weaponizing Trade Using trade to influence geopolitical outcomes is not new but its use has intensified. While some might use the U.S. as the cause of its escalation, the American reaction is more of a lag effect to pre-existing conditions. Australia and now Canada can attest that China’s...
Negotiating Positions; Righteous Stand
Negotiating Positions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being joined in Washington today by EU leaders as they discuss with President Trump the next possible steps in the peace effort with Russia. European leaders bristled over being left out of the initial talks last Friday with Vladim...
Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...
BRICS Unload; Pity the European Farmer; Policy Shorts
BRICS Unload President Trump has slow walked or balked at negotiating trade agreements with Brazil, India and South Africa. The supposed reasons include unfair treatment of Brazil’s Bolsonaro, India’s failure to open its market to U.S. farm goods while buying Russian oil, and South...
Consumption Taxes; Food Costs and Adaptation
Consumption Taxes This analyst erroneously implied that value added taxes are cumulative through the supply chain when in fact any VAT paid on an input is deductible, thus ensuring it is the final customer paying the tax. The VAT is an important discussion point because the Trump Administration...
NCGA Complains About Tariffs and Margins
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), along with 25 state associations, sent a letter on 1 August to USTR Jamieson Greer, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins complaining about “the calamitous environment for farmers who are trying to plan for harve...
Dicamba Registration Re-Proposed
On 23 July, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that three formulations of the pesticide dicamba would be open to a 30-day comment period to re-register dicamba for use as over-the-top (OTT) use on dicamba-tolerant crops, namely cotton and soybeans. Previously, a federal d...
VAT Versus Trump Tariffs; MAHA Win?
VAT versus Trump Tariffs Most imports into the U.S. will face an average 15 tariff under Trump trade policy. Critics and news reports warned of disastrous impacts that have thus far failed to develop. This may be due to their relative context. Most countries apply tariffs such as the EU’s...
Infuriating Ingratiation; Soul Crushing Jobs
Infuriating Ingratiation Based on European press reports, the terms of the transatlantic trade deal (see Tariffs as a Tax) are less objectionable than the “humiliation” of “submission” to the U.S. But that is just Europe being its usual “bantie rooster.” ...
Snacking Turmoil
There are a lot of issues working against the snack world right now from tariffs to cocoa and sugar prices, to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) ban on dyes and artificial colors. Let’s take a look. First, there is the ongoing volatility of cocoa prices. Prices have been in an a...
Politics of Tariffs; Tariffs as a Tax
Politics of Tariffs The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington heard legal arguments last week regarding Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to circumvent Congress’s power to levy tariffs. The reported reaction of the co...
USDA Reorganization
USDA has opened a comment period on its agency reorganization plan. Comments will be accepted until 26 August. The plan is similar to that of the first Trump Administration, which was widely panned by USDA personnel. One of the primary goals is to move employees out of the high-cost Washington,...
Tariffs, Mexico Extension, Federal Reserve, and Jobs Report
President Trump signed an executive order yesterday unveiling a massive overhaul of U.S. tariff policy, introducing a series of new tariff rates for U.S. trading partners. The executive order was signed hours before today’s deadline, but the order also included a provision to start the ne...
Friday’s Tariffs; China and Europe; MAHA Outlook
Friday’s Tariffs Brazil and India are two of the bigger countries facing President Trump’s tariff escalation this Friday, and both will receive extra punishment. U.S. tariffs on Brazil will be 50 percent as extra was added due to Mr. Trump’s opposition to the judicial treatmen...
Trump Trade Squeezes; USDA Staff Relocation; Scale and Trade
Trump Trade Squeezes It did not help the EU’s trade negotiating position in Scotland this past Sunday when its leaders had just come from China where President Xi Jinping rebuffed their demands for rebalancing the trading relationship. China’s overcapacity causes it to dump steel, a...
U.S.-EU Trade Agreement
President Trump and EU President Ursula von der Lynen announced on Sunday that they reached an outline of a Cooperation Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade. This is the Trump Administration’s fifth agreement to date, along with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam, which is...
Humiliating; Keep Your Enemies Close; Contradicting
Humiliating U.S. trade talks with China this week are not expected to net anything more than an extension of the current standoff, which means nothing for U.S. soybean exporters. Meanwhile, the trade agreement yesterday between President Trump and EU President Ursua von der Leyen offers up many...
MAHA: More Pulses? Does it Matter?
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, spearheaded by the Secretary of Health and Human Services Department includes a lot of transformational goals, and some goals that are objectively silly. For example, Coca-Cola is transitioning back to sugar for some of its soft drinks, an announc...
15 Percent and Certainty; Purity Tests; Cherry Picking Cherries
15 Percent and Certainty The U.S. trade agreement with Japan announced late yesterday was likely Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s final act. Financial markets reacted positively since the deal at least brings certainty. The surprise concession to 15 percent tariffs now sets a baseline that...
Ready for War; Deals Trickly In
Ready for War Europe has not won a kinetic war without U.S. help, but one German official quoted by the Wall Street Journal boasted, “If they [U.S.] want war, they will get war.” Admittedly, Europe has been far better at defensive trade policy than it has been at fighting Russian ag...
Ten Days and Counting
Outside markets are counting on trade deals or another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) come 1 August. Since the 7 July announcement of the small window to negotiate trade deals with Washington, The Dow is down 0.17 percent, but the S&P 500 is up 1.22 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has...
Tariffs Rock Japan’s Election: Rice, Oil, and Autos
Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to stay on as Prime Minister despite his coalition government losing its majority in the upper house after an election on Sunday. Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government is a coalition government with its junior coalition partne...
Ups and Downs in EU AG; Brazil Targeted
Ups and Downs in EU AG Farmers in Europe cannot catch a break. For years they were they toast of the EU with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) garnering over 60 percent of the budget. Then five years ago the Greens came to dominate European politics and their Green Deal and Farm to Fork refo...
Trade War Dynamics
First quarter global merchandise trade accelerated faster than expected as everyone expedited purchases ahead of tariffs and potential slowing of import demand. These market exchanges have likely remained accelerated ahead of the now 1 August tariff deadline, but increased costs were apparent i...
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy; Purple Hair, Not Purple Food
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy Texas has become the seventh state to prohibit food products cultured from animal cells. Another half dozen states are considering legislative restrictions on these products, often at the behest of the agriculture sector. Bloomberg produced the map below on st...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs
Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of 1970, which sets standards to ensure eggs and egg products are properly labeled and packaged while preempting state law that imposes additio...
Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology
Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagnant system, someone to clear out the sclerotic elites clinging to their benefits. The U.S. president and his realpolitik has prompted every n...
Tariffs and Geopolitics
Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent of Canadians see the U.S. as the “greatest threat” to the Great White North. However, most Americans do not really think about...
Trump Tariff Letters Issued
Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trade deal is reached. These tariffs would affect all imports beyond key sectoral tariffs already proposed. In the letters, Trump warned countri...
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened; African Moves; WTO Reforms
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened President Trump announced that the 9 July deadline for trade agreements with the U.S. to avoid reciprocal tariffs will be extended to 1 August. Eighteen countries are being targeted for trade negotiations, and a smaller subset received letters today on...
Skinny Farm Bill Left to Finish
President Trump said yesterday that the U.S. is nearing several new trade deals and that letters will be sent to trading partners by 9 July warning of increased tariffs set to take effect on 1 August. That announcement effectively extends the administration’s trade deadline from this week...
Vietnam Deal; EU Green Targets
Vietnam Deal As the 9 July deadline approaches, a second trade deal was announced by President Trump. He says the U.S. will apply a 20 percent tariff on imports from Vietnam (versus 46 percent reciprocal), and 40 percent if the product was transshipped. The duty could vary based on domestic con...
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12; Power of Ag; Trump Power
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12 Delineating the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution from the rights of the states has long been a legal fight in the U.S. Thus, it was notable last night when the U.S. Senate voted 99-1 to remove language from the Big Beautiful Bill that would have restric...
Un-Trade Agreements; Ag in Big Beautiful Bill; CAP Controversy
Un-Trade Agreements It did not take long for Canadian officials to reverse their digital services tax after President Trump threatened to end trade negotiations. Canada is second only to Mexico in terms of trade dependence on the U.S. Many Canadian producers are already hurting from trade sanct...
Crop Life America Registers Strong Comments on MAHA Strategy
In a 12-page letter to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Crop Life America (CLA) outlined a number of issues for the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) strategy on pesticides to further “our shared goals of promoting children’s health and ensuring that pesticide regulatory...
Trade Negotiation Update; Miscellaneous
Trade Negotiation Update There were no shortages of eye-opening news reports this week and the notable one on trade late today was President Trump’s announcement that he is ending trade negotiations with Canada. Ottawa’s decision to impose a retroactive digital services tax on Ameri...
Ignoring Margins; Trump Tariff Win
Ignoring Margins The U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights held a hearing yesterday on, Reducing Regulatory Burdens to Unlock Innovation and Spur New Entry and the meat packing industry was front and center. UC-Berkely Senior Fellow Doha Mekki co...
Trade Agreements Challenged; No Non-reciprocals; Miniature Meat Plant
Trade Agreements Challenged The 9 July deadline for countries to reach individual trade agreements with the U.S. is fast approaching and while the Trump Administration says negotiations are progressing, there are some high hurdles. Protectionists from India to Europe are pressuring their policy...
One Big Beautiful Bill Unveiled in the Senate
The Senate Finance Committee and its chairman Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) have unveiled their tax bill as part of budget reconciliation to extend the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. According to the Committee, the bill … prevents a more-than $4 trillion tax hike on American families a...
G7 Disappointments; Deregulation and Consolidation
G7 Disappointments The Israeli-Iran war stole the thunder of the G7 meeting in Canada and while President Trump said ahead of the conference that he hoped to achieve trade deals, only the UK’s Keir Starmer has managed an agreement. However, G7 members are moving closer to Mr. Trump’...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
Selective Deportation; G-7 Outcomes; U.S. Has the Meat
Selective Deportation The New York Times credited USDA Secretary Brooke Rolins with persuading President Trump to leave undocumented workers in agriculture alone. It’s bad enough that the President’s most reliable voting block is also the most threatened by retaliatory tariffs, conc...
Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism
Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...
End of the Year: Lots to Do and a Short Time to Get it Done
Congress returns this week from their Thanksgiving recess to wrap up end-of-year priorities. There are only 13 days of legislative sessions remaining in the House, with 12 days before the 30 January deadline when the government runs out of money once again. The Senate has 12 days of session rem...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador. The appointment is notable because Callahan does not come from Capitol Hill or other warrens of political expediency when it comes to powe...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-free trade advertisement in Ontario. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is bragging that the ad was effective and chortles over the ad getting under Tr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Minority Supplier; Trade “Agreements”
Minority Supplier Following negotiations with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects China to revive substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans and to delay expanding its licensing requirement for rare earths. The Treasury lead claims to und...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which were largely a bust. Gary wrote, “Live cattle futures pulled back sharply on Wednesday with no apparent fundamental catalyst, other than...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. The President called on ranchers to lower their prices even though they are set by the market based on supply and demand. Jawboning will caus...
Splitting Decision
Policymaking in democracies is hard and nowhere is that truer than in the multinational setting of the European Union. Belatedly, a larger construct of EU policymakers have come to appreciate that genetic engineering is technology, and Europe is falling behind in an increasingly technological w...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Ag Complexity; Some Get Disciplined; Vice Pays to Virtue
Ag Complexity President Trump hasn’t met a problem he doesn’t think he can solve, and that is a good thing, but it does run into the reality of systems complexity. His effort to help Argentina, a country with what he sees as sympatico political leanings and near collapse from debt i...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
Sorry Soy; Strategy for Generational Rebuttal
Sorry Soy Thomas Suddes, a reporter for The Plain Dealer cutely writes that Trump’s bubble-gum-and-twine trade “policy” has wrecked America-to-China soybean sales. He is correct that the current Sino-American trade war has ended U.S. soybean sales to the Middle Kingdom, someth...
Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added
Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions starting 1 November in retaliation, until he signaled everything was just a bad day. China then sanctioned a U.S. shipping subsidiary. Some...
Various Campaigns Diagnosed; EU Dependency
Various Campaigns Diagnosed Climate Change: Since the Paris Accord in 2015, environmentalists have poured hundreds of millions of dollars publicizing the dangers of climate change. They’ve had the buy-in from elites and a cooperative media ecosystem giving attention to the “cr...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Reconciliation Bill Increases Crop Payments
The reconciliation bill signed into law on 4 July, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill, increased statutory reference prices under the Agricultural Risk Payments (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs and made some changes to the effective reference prices (ERP) which are used to calculate pay...
Animal Welfare Metrics; Transatlantic NTB’s; More Elegant Trade Rules
Animal Welfare Metrics The U.S. Justice Department is suing California over its Prop 12 animal welfare standards adversely impacting hog and poultry producers in other states. For some, the suit is a rejection of federalism (states rights) even as the Trump Administration seeks to defang Washin...
WTO Stalemate; Off Again, On Again; Dem Bones
WTO Stalemate The World Trade Organization remains unable to move forward on its reform agenda under a stalemate over issues like the current consensus requirement, re-establishing the appellate level in dispute settlement, and use of special and differential treatment. The pending confirmation...
New Truck Tariffs to Hit Mexico
President Trump said yesterday that all medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the U.S. will face a 25 percent tariff rate starting 1 November. That marks a significant escalation of Trump’s effort to protect U.S. companies from foreign competition. He had previously stat...
Breaking Convention
No political leader has broken rules and norms like President Trump but only because previous leaders refused to bravely declare that the emperor has no clothes. The list of upended conventions is long and still growing. Just this past week it was investors noting how economists have been wrong...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data typically reported in the Thursday livestock report, including slaughter data and livestock and poultry inventories. USDA posted o...
Shutdown Impacts on Ag
In the now fifth U.S. government shutdown in the past 30 years, everyone is guessing about its duration because each shutdown has had its own unique circumstances. The online prediction markets have a range of guesses, all tending toward the shorter side of the last one under Mr. Trump, 35 days...
Trade versus Self-Sufficiency
David Ricardo’s concept of comparative advantage has not been disproven; it has just been ignored for the past 200 years. While there has been progress toward untethered competition in the post-war period, American labor unions became most vocal against trade agreements during the Obama A...
Impact of Potential Government Shutdown
It is 30 September, the last day of the fiscal year. Congress must pass a funding bill by midnight tonight or face a government shutdown. The odds are that a shutdown is coming, given the House is in recess until tomorrow, 1 October. President Trump met with the top Congressional leadership at...
Chemically Named; Farms In, Government Out
Chemically Named Europe’s wine grape growers are complaining that EU regulations prohibit them from using the fungicide sodium hydrogen carbonate. It was approved as a basic substance but then a manufacturer incorporated it as the active ingredient in a manufactured product and EU regulat...
Flow of Government Funds to Agriculture
In the face of increasing input costs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to protect U.S. farmers and ranchers from high, and volatile, input costs spanning fertilizer, fuel, seed, and equipment and ensuring competi...
International Disorder
President Trump receives harsh criticism for disrupting the international order and his UN speech is no different. His critics called it meandering, full of grievances and complaints but lacking answers. A more objective view is to question authority or else it will never change or improve. The...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had proposed during his campaign. The final decision, however, came as the country is desperate for U.S. dollars to shore up the flagging peso. Furthe...
Surreptitious NTB; Geopolitical Sacrifices; Strategic Opposition
Surreptitious NTB Import inspectors in Western democracies would blow the whistle if politically told to single out and reject product from a specific foreign country on specious reasons. But Chinese import inspectors serve the goals of the all-powerful state. Dim Sums notes a sudden spike in C...
Convenience over Causation; Rules and Convenience; GI’s in America; Transatlantic Work Views
Convenience over Causation A months’ long commitment to delivering in September led to today’s announcement by chemo-phobe RFK, Jr. that, “I think we found an answer to autism” As previously noted, the Trump Administration’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report...
Plan to Rebuild Beef Cattle Supply is Coming This Week
Yesterday, USDA released a statement confirming the detection of New World Screwworm (NSW) in in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the Mexican state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border. The case was confirmed by the National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Sa...
How the EPA’s Anti-Decision Will Affect Biofuels and Soyoil
In mythology or legends, the hero is obviously identified – the “good guy” standing up for justice, not compromising what is right, and displays courage or other noble and admired qualities. Standing in contrast – but not quite opposite – to the hero is the anti-he...
WTO and Trump; Analytically Correct, Predictably Wrong
WTO and Trump To quote Wikipedia, James Bacchus is “an American statesman, scholar, writer, and politician". He also served as a founding member and twice chairman of the WTO’s Appellate Body. He now writes from the Libertarian Cato Institute and provocatively asks why the WTO is no...
Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Supply Down on First Half of Year
U.S. imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in previous years. This decline is primarily due to the loss of tax credits for imported biofuels. Additionally, domestic consumption is also down. In Janua...
No Tariffs, No Reforms; Nōgyō for PM; Turnabout is Fair Play
No Tariffs, No Reforms U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the EU to join him in imposing tariffs on China and India for purchasing Russian oil. EU officials have signaled they are disinclined to use tariffs, but may be willing to impose sanctions on the companies that transact the oil. Sanct...
Outlook for the Fed Meeting This Week
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week with the make-up of the committee still up in the air. Governor Lisa Cook is questionable regarding her attendance after President Trump has sought her to ouster her on mortgage frau...
Chemo-phobia on Steroids
Notably, Congressional Republicans followed the demands of farm groups and added a provision in the latest government funding bill that some say would shield pesticide companies from lawsuits. Companies like Bayer have battled lawsuits for selling pesticides lawfully approved for use by regulat...
Wheat from the Chaff; Europe Gets Squeezed
Wheat from the Chaff An agricultural meeting in Arkansas last week drew 400 to 500 farmers, a much larger group than expected at harvest time. They vented their angst over low commodity prices, high input costs, and consequently low profitability. One estimate from bankers is that farm bankrupt...
EV’s, Pork, and Trade
Last Friday China announced it would impose temporary anti-dumping duties on pork imports from the EU. China's commerce ministry said that the investigation has "preliminarily determined that imports of relevant pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union&nb...
Venting Hypocrisy; Xi – Trump Meeting; Say Cheese Please
Venting Hypocrisy At a BRICS meeting this past weekend, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva characterized President Trump’s use of tariffs as a tool of “blackmail.” The formal definition of blackmail involves demanding benefit from someone in exchange for not reveali...
USG Closure; Ag Gets Special Treatment; Policy Shorts
USG Closure Congressional Democrats are debating whether they should force the U.S. government into closure at the end of this month when the budget (continuing resolution) expires. Back in March, a handful of Democratic U.S. senators joined with the Republicans in ensuring funding through 30 S...
Japan–U.S. Trade Deal Implemented
The U.S.-Japan trade deal is now in place. It provides for a 15 percent tariff on most goods entering from Japan. For goods that were subject to tariffs less than 15 percent will now face higher duties at 15 percent, but goods that faced duties of 15 percent or higher will not increase. The tar...
Inflation Regime Changes and Commodity Market Outlooks
U.S. fiscal and monetary policy is at a crossroads, which is creating uncertainty for macroeconomic and commodity markets. Chief among these concerns is “sticky” inflation that has resisted the Fed’s efforts to control it, which is juxtaposed against a weakening labor market...
Prop 12 Counterattack; Assault on International Organizations; Japan on Point
Prop 12 Counterattack To the great disappointment of key parts of the U.S. agriculture sector, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that California’s Prop 12 is constitutional, and that the state can establish its own rules on meat sold in the state regardless of its origin. The sect...
SCO versus West
Instead of focusing on foes, the transatlantic alliance needs to remediate itself. Media reactions to this past weekend’s Shanghai Cooperation Council was telling. The New York Times was shocked that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “friends.” CNN called it “stark op...
Appellate Court Rules Against Tariffs; Credit Ratings Uncertain
On 28 May, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and ordered that the "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed on 2 April be vacated. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Feder...
Brazil Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
The Foreign Ministry of Brazil notified the U.S. today that it has directed its trade body, Camex, to investigate whether it can retaliate against the 50 percent tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on several goods imported from Brazil. The investigation will conducted be under a law pa...
Technology Impacts; Science and UPF’s; Perpetuating the Museum
Technology Impacts Technology is driving markets around the world, but not always in the same direction or with the same results. Today’s big story surrounded Nvidia, which met revenue expectations and exceeded projected earnings per share, but underwhelmed investors on data center sales...
Future of Tariffs
Some countries have reacted harshly to the tariffs imposed by President Trump, while other countries responded more mutedly or negotiated a settlement. Canada initially retaliated but has now unilaterally reversed some of its retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. after deeming them predominantly...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Protectionists’ Spin; Transatlantic Spin; India’s New Bed
Protectionists’ Spin U.S. President Donald Trump is vilified for statements that his critics say are blatantly untrue, but he is not alone in trying to frame messages to his favor. This past weekend, China’s Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng said that "It goes without saying that [Ame...
Canada Exempts USMCA Products from Tariffs
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump had a telephone conversation last Thursday to discuss trade. By all accounts, the discussion was productive after top trade officials have been meeting for months with little to show. In late July, Trump signed an executive order increasin...
Rearranged Trade Impacts
U.S. tariffs are reordering world trade and may further impact the nation’s agricultural exports. While soybean exports to China are stalled as that nation redirects all of its purchases to South America, that has been a political position that ignores the lower cost of U.S. soybeans. How...
MAHA Draft Report Softens Pesticide Language
On 13 February President Trump signed Executive Order 14212 entitled “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (MAHA),” establishing the commission and charging it to submit an assessment on the status of the health of America, which was submitted on...
Weaponizing Trade; De-Weaponizing MAHA
Weaponizing Trade Using trade to influence geopolitical outcomes is not new but its use has intensified. While some might use the U.S. as the cause of its escalation, the American reaction is more of a lag effect to pre-existing conditions. Australia and now Canada can attest that China’s...
Negotiating Positions; Righteous Stand
Negotiating Positions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being joined in Washington today by EU leaders as they discuss with President Trump the next possible steps in the peace effort with Russia. European leaders bristled over being left out of the initial talks last Friday with Vladim...
Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...
BRICS Unload; Pity the European Farmer; Policy Shorts
BRICS Unload President Trump has slow walked or balked at negotiating trade agreements with Brazil, India and South Africa. The supposed reasons include unfair treatment of Brazil’s Bolsonaro, India’s failure to open its market to U.S. farm goods while buying Russian oil, and South...
Consumption Taxes; Food Costs and Adaptation
Consumption Taxes This analyst erroneously implied that value added taxes are cumulative through the supply chain when in fact any VAT paid on an input is deductible, thus ensuring it is the final customer paying the tax. The VAT is an important discussion point because the Trump Administration...
NCGA Complains About Tariffs and Margins
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), along with 25 state associations, sent a letter on 1 August to USTR Jamieson Greer, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins complaining about “the calamitous environment for farmers who are trying to plan for harve...
Dicamba Registration Re-Proposed
On 23 July, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that three formulations of the pesticide dicamba would be open to a 30-day comment period to re-register dicamba for use as over-the-top (OTT) use on dicamba-tolerant crops, namely cotton and soybeans. Previously, a federal d...
VAT Versus Trump Tariffs; MAHA Win?
VAT versus Trump Tariffs Most imports into the U.S. will face an average 15 tariff under Trump trade policy. Critics and news reports warned of disastrous impacts that have thus far failed to develop. This may be due to their relative context. Most countries apply tariffs such as the EU’s...
Infuriating Ingratiation; Soul Crushing Jobs
Infuriating Ingratiation Based on European press reports, the terms of the transatlantic trade deal (see Tariffs as a Tax) are less objectionable than the “humiliation” of “submission” to the U.S. But that is just Europe being its usual “bantie rooster.” ...
Snacking Turmoil
There are a lot of issues working against the snack world right now from tariffs to cocoa and sugar prices, to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) ban on dyes and artificial colors. Let’s take a look. First, there is the ongoing volatility of cocoa prices. Prices have been in an a...
Politics of Tariffs; Tariffs as a Tax
Politics of Tariffs The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington heard legal arguments last week regarding Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to circumvent Congress’s power to levy tariffs. The reported reaction of the co...
USDA Reorganization
USDA has opened a comment period on its agency reorganization plan. Comments will be accepted until 26 August. The plan is similar to that of the first Trump Administration, which was widely panned by USDA personnel. One of the primary goals is to move employees out of the high-cost Washington,...
Tariffs, Mexico Extension, Federal Reserve, and Jobs Report
President Trump signed an executive order yesterday unveiling a massive overhaul of U.S. tariff policy, introducing a series of new tariff rates for U.S. trading partners. The executive order was signed hours before today’s deadline, but the order also included a provision to start the ne...
Friday’s Tariffs; China and Europe; MAHA Outlook
Friday’s Tariffs Brazil and India are two of the bigger countries facing President Trump’s tariff escalation this Friday, and both will receive extra punishment. U.S. tariffs on Brazil will be 50 percent as extra was added due to Mr. Trump’s opposition to the judicial treatmen...
Trump Trade Squeezes; USDA Staff Relocation; Scale and Trade
Trump Trade Squeezes It did not help the EU’s trade negotiating position in Scotland this past Sunday when its leaders had just come from China where President Xi Jinping rebuffed their demands for rebalancing the trading relationship. China’s overcapacity causes it to dump steel, a...
U.S.-EU Trade Agreement
President Trump and EU President Ursula von der Lynen announced on Sunday that they reached an outline of a Cooperation Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade. This is the Trump Administration’s fifth agreement to date, along with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam, which is...
Humiliating; Keep Your Enemies Close; Contradicting
Humiliating U.S. trade talks with China this week are not expected to net anything more than an extension of the current standoff, which means nothing for U.S. soybean exporters. Meanwhile, the trade agreement yesterday between President Trump and EU President Ursua von der Leyen offers up many...
MAHA: More Pulses? Does it Matter?
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, spearheaded by the Secretary of Health and Human Services Department includes a lot of transformational goals, and some goals that are objectively silly. For example, Coca-Cola is transitioning back to sugar for some of its soft drinks, an announc...
15 Percent and Certainty; Purity Tests; Cherry Picking Cherries
15 Percent and Certainty The U.S. trade agreement with Japan announced late yesterday was likely Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s final act. Financial markets reacted positively since the deal at least brings certainty. The surprise concession to 15 percent tariffs now sets a baseline that...
Ready for War; Deals Trickly In
Ready for War Europe has not won a kinetic war without U.S. help, but one German official quoted by the Wall Street Journal boasted, “If they [U.S.] want war, they will get war.” Admittedly, Europe has been far better at defensive trade policy than it has been at fighting Russian ag...
Ten Days and Counting
Outside markets are counting on trade deals or another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) come 1 August. Since the 7 July announcement of the small window to negotiate trade deals with Washington, The Dow is down 0.17 percent, but the S&P 500 is up 1.22 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has...
Tariffs Rock Japan’s Election: Rice, Oil, and Autos
Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to stay on as Prime Minister despite his coalition government losing its majority in the upper house after an election on Sunday. Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government is a coalition government with its junior coalition partne...
Ups and Downs in EU AG; Brazil Targeted
Ups and Downs in EU AG Farmers in Europe cannot catch a break. For years they were they toast of the EU with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) garnering over 60 percent of the budget. Then five years ago the Greens came to dominate European politics and their Green Deal and Farm to Fork refo...
Trade War Dynamics
First quarter global merchandise trade accelerated faster than expected as everyone expedited purchases ahead of tariffs and potential slowing of import demand. These market exchanges have likely remained accelerated ahead of the now 1 August tariff deadline, but increased costs were apparent i...
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy; Purple Hair, Not Purple Food
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy Texas has become the seventh state to prohibit food products cultured from animal cells. Another half dozen states are considering legislative restrictions on these products, often at the behest of the agriculture sector. Bloomberg produced the map below on st...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs
Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of 1970, which sets standards to ensure eggs and egg products are properly labeled and packaged while preempting state law that imposes additio...
Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology
Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagnant system, someone to clear out the sclerotic elites clinging to their benefits. The U.S. president and his realpolitik has prompted every n...
Tariffs and Geopolitics
Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent of Canadians see the U.S. as the “greatest threat” to the Great White North. However, most Americans do not really think about...
Trump Tariff Letters Issued
Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trade deal is reached. These tariffs would affect all imports beyond key sectoral tariffs already proposed. In the letters, Trump warned countri...
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened; African Moves; WTO Reforms
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened President Trump announced that the 9 July deadline for trade agreements with the U.S. to avoid reciprocal tariffs will be extended to 1 August. Eighteen countries are being targeted for trade negotiations, and a smaller subset received letters today on...
Skinny Farm Bill Left to Finish
President Trump said yesterday that the U.S. is nearing several new trade deals and that letters will be sent to trading partners by 9 July warning of increased tariffs set to take effect on 1 August. That announcement effectively extends the administration’s trade deadline from this week...
Vietnam Deal; EU Green Targets
Vietnam Deal As the 9 July deadline approaches, a second trade deal was announced by President Trump. He says the U.S. will apply a 20 percent tariff on imports from Vietnam (versus 46 percent reciprocal), and 40 percent if the product was transshipped. The duty could vary based on domestic con...
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12; Power of Ag; Trump Power
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12 Delineating the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution from the rights of the states has long been a legal fight in the U.S. Thus, it was notable last night when the U.S. Senate voted 99-1 to remove language from the Big Beautiful Bill that would have restric...
Un-Trade Agreements; Ag in Big Beautiful Bill; CAP Controversy
Un-Trade Agreements It did not take long for Canadian officials to reverse their digital services tax after President Trump threatened to end trade negotiations. Canada is second only to Mexico in terms of trade dependence on the U.S. Many Canadian producers are already hurting from trade sanct...
Crop Life America Registers Strong Comments on MAHA Strategy
In a 12-page letter to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Crop Life America (CLA) outlined a number of issues for the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) strategy on pesticides to further “our shared goals of promoting children’s health and ensuring that pesticide regulatory...
Trade Negotiation Update; Miscellaneous
Trade Negotiation Update There were no shortages of eye-opening news reports this week and the notable one on trade late today was President Trump’s announcement that he is ending trade negotiations with Canada. Ottawa’s decision to impose a retroactive digital services tax on Ameri...
Ignoring Margins; Trump Tariff Win
Ignoring Margins The U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights held a hearing yesterday on, Reducing Regulatory Burdens to Unlock Innovation and Spur New Entry and the meat packing industry was front and center. UC-Berkely Senior Fellow Doha Mekki co...
Trade Agreements Challenged; No Non-reciprocals; Miniature Meat Plant
Trade Agreements Challenged The 9 July deadline for countries to reach individual trade agreements with the U.S. is fast approaching and while the Trump Administration says negotiations are progressing, there are some high hurdles. Protectionists from India to Europe are pressuring their policy...
One Big Beautiful Bill Unveiled in the Senate
The Senate Finance Committee and its chairman Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) have unveiled their tax bill as part of budget reconciliation to extend the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. According to the Committee, the bill … prevents a more-than $4 trillion tax hike on American families a...
G7 Disappointments; Deregulation and Consolidation
G7 Disappointments The Israeli-Iran war stole the thunder of the G7 meeting in Canada and while President Trump said ahead of the conference that he hoped to achieve trade deals, only the UK’s Keir Starmer has managed an agreement. However, G7 members are moving closer to Mr. Trump’...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
Selective Deportation; G-7 Outcomes; U.S. Has the Meat
Selective Deportation The New York Times credited USDA Secretary Brooke Rolins with persuading President Trump to leave undocumented workers in agriculture alone. It’s bad enough that the President’s most reliable voting block is also the most threatened by retaliatory tariffs, conc...