Recent Biofuels Analysis
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Ethanol to the Rescue!
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit the year-round sale of E15 fuel through the summer of 2025. The letter encouraged the use of temporary waivers under the Clean Air Act to exte...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption
U.S. manufacturing energy consumption has continued to increase, according to the EIA’s recently released survey results for 2022. The agency conducts and releases the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) every four years. The latest iteration shows the third consecutive increas...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of their long (74,000 contracts) and are now long just 132,000 contracts, or less than half of their position just a few weeks ago. That rapid li...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
WPI 2025 Acreage Outlook
With the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook forum happening at the end of this month and planting season a little more than four weeks away for parts of the U.S., the industry is turning its attention to the acreage outlook for 2025. This year offers significant differences from recent conditions t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds still engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Funds expanded their long position in corn by 7 percent and are now just about 17,000 contract shy of their seasonal record long position. Funds were n...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the biggest feature of the report was funds’ exchange of a small net short in soybeans for a modest long of 58,000 contracts, after they bought...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Impacts on U.S. Ethanol Trade
Brazil is the second largest producer and use of ethanol after the U.S. The U.S. has an import tariff on ethanol of 2.5 percent ad valorem and has asked Brazil to reciprocate. Brazil maintains an import tariff of 11.75 percent on ethanol. Nonetheless, U.S. exports of ethanol have been on a mete...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ activity matched up with expectations and general market direction. Note that the data, which captures funds’ positions through Tuesday, 7 Jan...
45Z Tax Credit Preliminary Guidance Released; No GREET Model Yet
As WPI reported on 6 December, the Treasury Department had promised that the compliance regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuels Production credit would be released by the end of the Biden Administration, implying no later than 19 January, the day before President-elect Trump’s inauguration. T...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectations for consumption of renewable diesel and biodiesel. This fact is likely well known by WPI readers, though the details of what exactly ha...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Once again, the major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds still remain solidly bullish corn and added another 7 percent to their long position in that market. That was particularly impressive as the week ending 19 November (the reporting deadline for the CFTC report) included days wit...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...
Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation
As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025
Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Energy and Agriculture
Global agriculture produces energy, with 23 percent of ethanol produced from sugarcane, and another 7 percent produced from the molasses byproduct of processing sugarcane or sugarbeets. Increased production of ethanol has caused global sugar carryover to decline. Agriculture is also a major con...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
India’s Ethanol Conundrum and Impact on Global Markets
India is attempting to pursue its climate goals through the expansion of biofuel blending into transportation fuels, but the dynamics of the country’s agricultural systems and protectionist trade policies may stymie these efforts. The USDA recently issued an outlook that calls for India t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
Soyoil futures have seen a dramatic few years with a huge rally in 2020 sending the market to new record highs by 2022 amid the expectations for higher demand from biofuel mandates. However, since reaching mid-2022 highs soyoil has been on a long and volatile decline as global soybean and soyoi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Tracking Sustainable Aviation Fuel
A bill has been introduced in the House of Representatives that would require the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to add sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to the agency’s monthly published data to provide a benchmark on how the fuel is developing. Recall, the Biden Administrati...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds more aggressively covering shorts in the grains and oilseed sector heading into the August WASDE. The most notable buying was in corn, where funds bought back 50,000 contracts or about 17 percent of their previous short position and have now shed over 100...
E15 Summertime Waivers and Ethanol Supply and Demand
This week, EPA extended (effective as of today) the summertime waiver for E15 until 29 August. Note the summer driving season – when E15 would otherwise be prohibited – ends on 15 September. The beginning of the summer driving season when retail sale of E15 is prohibited start...
Another Extension for BTC Proposed
Representatives Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and Ann Kuster (D-New Hampshire) last month introduced the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act of 2024 that would extend the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blender credit through 2025. By way of background, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC) – which applies to both...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report shows that funds were – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline – cautiously covering shorts in corn and soybeans as they continued to edge back from their recent record-large short position in both commodities. That was as little surprising given...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, short-covering was the major theme from the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which showed that managed money funds backed off from the record-breaking positions they previously amassed. Funds bought back about 10K contracts in soybeans and about 19K in corn, but the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining massively short agricultural commodities. Perhaps the most notable item in this week’s report was the expansion of the record-large net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and their selling of nearly 30,000 soybean contracts to bring their short in that market close to the record short were the headlines from this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the buying in soyoil, where funds took back nearly half their short position in that contract amid the fears about the Indonesia-China trade war...
Biofuel Trade Issues
U.S. ethanol exports during December-March were up 42 percent over the same period a year earlier. The increased sales are not due to the price of petroleum as there is a very low correlation between the two. Instead, demand is driven by efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels, particul...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, funds were proven to be staunch net sellers last week, according to Friday’s CFTC report data. Funds were the most aggressive in corn where they sold nearly 90,000 contracts and obtained their largest short position since April and the largest early-June short since 2020. Fun...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The surprise in this week’s CFTC report is that – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline - funds were more aggressive covering grain/oilseed shorts than expected. The headline number is that funds bought back over 111,000 contracts and are now only short about 30,000 contra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Updated GREET Model and Treasury Guidance Released
The Treasury Department released its guidance on an updated Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) today. SAF would be eligible for a tax credit known as 40B for the section of the Inflation Reduction Act that cre...
E15’s Rube Goldberg Regulations
Last Friday, 19 April, the EPA issued an emergency waiver for E15 to be sold through the summer driving season. The topline takeaway of that action is positive for the ethanol sector, but the practicality of implementing the new rule is more complex. Indeed, the structure of the Cle...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Based on futures’ price action late last week and early this week, one would be expecting funds to have been net sellers in the major ag commodities, and that’s exactly what happened. Funds expanded their short soybean position by some 30,000 contracts, making it a new five-year low...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Biofuel Round-Up
E15: It is 9 April; by 1 May terminals that blend gasoline with ethanol need to be in compliance with summer-grade gasoline specifications that are effective on 1 June. The ethanol industry has pressed EPA for another emergency waiver for year-round E15 use in the summer of 2024. EPA did approv...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was unsurprising in that managed money funds were net sellers through Tuesday’s data reporting period, which obviously coincided with the new contract lows in the grain markets. Funds were aggressive net sellers in corn, SRW wheat, and soyoil but were more cautious...
A Look at Low Carbon Feedstock for Biofuels
At the end of this year the existing biofuel tax credit expires and will be replaced with the new Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC) included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. Those credits which are expiring include the on-again, off-again biodiesel blenders’ tax credit (BTC...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report featured a few surprises, most notably the 11,000-contract net buying in the Chicago wheat market. Heading into the report, expectations were that it would show funds expanding short positions heading into the February AOF from USDA. Rather, funds were parging back shorts...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds still being heavy net sellers in soybeans and corn with light short selling in the SRW wheat contract. Equally unsurprising was the net buying by managed money traders in soymeal and soyoil as they’ve largely whittled...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Rhetoric Meets Reality; Miscalculating Renewables; TTC and AI
Rhetoric Meets Reality German Greens reacted to farmer angst by blaming supermarkets for suppressing prices. Canadian Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne liked that angle and similarly blamed his country’s retailers for food inflation. Major retailer Carrefour then blamed suppli...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Small Refinery Exemptions Under the RFS Back in the Spotlight
A recurring issue since 2016 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been EPA’s administration of the small refinery exemption (SRE) program. A court decision in the 5th District Circuit Court brought that topic back to the forefront, and will add more complexity, volatility, and unce...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Renewable Diesel as “Regional Diesel”
In 2022, renewable diesel (RD) utilization (based on product supplied) surpassed biodiesel (BD) use. For Q1 of 2023, RD has extended the gap. This is not surprising given the rapid expansion of RD capacity in the past couple of years. What also was expected, but perhaps still slightly surprisi...
EPA Effectively Clears the Board of Pending SREs, Projects Not Approving Future Petitions
The EPA announced on Friday that it denied 26 requests for “small refinery exemptions” (SREs) over the periods of 2016-2018 and 2021-2023. There are still two SRE petitions pending for the 2018 compliance year. SRE’s have been a contentious issue for several years. SREs...
Lawmakers Urge USTR to Take on Access to Brazil’s Ethanol Market
On 1 June, a bipartisan group of 21 members of the House of Representatives asked USTR to address Brazil’s treatment of U.S. ethanol, specifically a reinstatement of tariffs and access to Brazil’s carbon credit program for ethanol. Between the tariff and lack of access to the credit...
Will EPA Flip Off the Switch for Electric Vehicles Under the RFS?
EPA is facing a 14 June deadline to finish the 2023-2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The date was set by consent decree with the courts. Recall, the proposed RVOs released in November 2022 included electric vehicles (EVs) as part of the overall vo...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Ethanol to the Rescue!
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit the year-round sale of E15 fuel through the summer of 2025. The letter encouraged the use of temporary waivers under the Clean Air Act to exte...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption
U.S. manufacturing energy consumption has continued to increase, according to the EIA’s recently released survey results for 2022. The agency conducts and releases the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) every four years. The latest iteration shows the third consecutive increas...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of their long (74,000 contracts) and are now long just 132,000 contracts, or less than half of their position just a few weeks ago. That rapid li...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
WPI 2025 Acreage Outlook
With the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook forum happening at the end of this month and planting season a little more than four weeks away for parts of the U.S., the industry is turning its attention to the acreage outlook for 2025. This year offers significant differences from recent conditions t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds still engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Funds expanded their long position in corn by 7 percent and are now just about 17,000 contract shy of their seasonal record long position. Funds were n...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the biggest feature of the report was funds’ exchange of a small net short in soybeans for a modest long of 58,000 contracts, after they bought...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Impacts on U.S. Ethanol Trade
Brazil is the second largest producer and use of ethanol after the U.S. The U.S. has an import tariff on ethanol of 2.5 percent ad valorem and has asked Brazil to reciprocate. Brazil maintains an import tariff of 11.75 percent on ethanol. Nonetheless, U.S. exports of ethanol have been on a mete...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ activity matched up with expectations and general market direction. Note that the data, which captures funds’ positions through Tuesday, 7 Jan...
45Z Tax Credit Preliminary Guidance Released; No GREET Model Yet
As WPI reported on 6 December, the Treasury Department had promised that the compliance regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuels Production credit would be released by the end of the Biden Administration, implying no later than 19 January, the day before President-elect Trump’s inauguration. T...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectations for consumption of renewable diesel and biodiesel. This fact is likely well known by WPI readers, though the details of what exactly ha...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Once again, the major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds still remain solidly bullish corn and added another 7 percent to their long position in that market. That was particularly impressive as the week ending 19 November (the reporting deadline for the CFTC report) included days wit...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...
Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation
As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025
Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Energy and Agriculture
Global agriculture produces energy, with 23 percent of ethanol produced from sugarcane, and another 7 percent produced from the molasses byproduct of processing sugarcane or sugarbeets. Increased production of ethanol has caused global sugar carryover to decline. Agriculture is also a major con...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
India’s Ethanol Conundrum and Impact on Global Markets
India is attempting to pursue its climate goals through the expansion of biofuel blending into transportation fuels, but the dynamics of the country’s agricultural systems and protectionist trade policies may stymie these efforts. The USDA recently issued an outlook that calls for India t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
Soyoil futures have seen a dramatic few years with a huge rally in 2020 sending the market to new record highs by 2022 amid the expectations for higher demand from biofuel mandates. However, since reaching mid-2022 highs soyoil has been on a long and volatile decline as global soybean and soyoi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Tracking Sustainable Aviation Fuel
A bill has been introduced in the House of Representatives that would require the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to add sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to the agency’s monthly published data to provide a benchmark on how the fuel is developing. Recall, the Biden Administrati...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds more aggressively covering shorts in the grains and oilseed sector heading into the August WASDE. The most notable buying was in corn, where funds bought back 50,000 contracts or about 17 percent of their previous short position and have now shed over 100...
E15 Summertime Waivers and Ethanol Supply and Demand
This week, EPA extended (effective as of today) the summertime waiver for E15 until 29 August. Note the summer driving season – when E15 would otherwise be prohibited – ends on 15 September. The beginning of the summer driving season when retail sale of E15 is prohibited start...
Another Extension for BTC Proposed
Representatives Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and Ann Kuster (D-New Hampshire) last month introduced the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act of 2024 that would extend the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blender credit through 2025. By way of background, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC) – which applies to both...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report shows that funds were – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline – cautiously covering shorts in corn and soybeans as they continued to edge back from their recent record-large short position in both commodities. That was as little surprising given...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, short-covering was the major theme from the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which showed that managed money funds backed off from the record-breaking positions they previously amassed. Funds bought back about 10K contracts in soybeans and about 19K in corn, but the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining massively short agricultural commodities. Perhaps the most notable item in this week’s report was the expansion of the record-large net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and their selling of nearly 30,000 soybean contracts to bring their short in that market close to the record short were the headlines from this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the buying in soyoil, where funds took back nearly half their short position in that contract amid the fears about the Indonesia-China trade war...
Biofuel Trade Issues
U.S. ethanol exports during December-March were up 42 percent over the same period a year earlier. The increased sales are not due to the price of petroleum as there is a very low correlation between the two. Instead, demand is driven by efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels, particul...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, funds were proven to be staunch net sellers last week, according to Friday’s CFTC report data. Funds were the most aggressive in corn where they sold nearly 90,000 contracts and obtained their largest short position since April and the largest early-June short since 2020. Fun...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The surprise in this week’s CFTC report is that – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline - funds were more aggressive covering grain/oilseed shorts than expected. The headline number is that funds bought back over 111,000 contracts and are now only short about 30,000 contra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Updated GREET Model and Treasury Guidance Released
The Treasury Department released its guidance on an updated Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) today. SAF would be eligible for a tax credit known as 40B for the section of the Inflation Reduction Act that cre...
E15’s Rube Goldberg Regulations
Last Friday, 19 April, the EPA issued an emergency waiver for E15 to be sold through the summer driving season. The topline takeaway of that action is positive for the ethanol sector, but the practicality of implementing the new rule is more complex. Indeed, the structure of the Cle...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Based on futures’ price action late last week and early this week, one would be expecting funds to have been net sellers in the major ag commodities, and that’s exactly what happened. Funds expanded their short soybean position by some 30,000 contracts, making it a new five-year low...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Biofuel Round-Up
E15: It is 9 April; by 1 May terminals that blend gasoline with ethanol need to be in compliance with summer-grade gasoline specifications that are effective on 1 June. The ethanol industry has pressed EPA for another emergency waiver for year-round E15 use in the summer of 2024. EPA did approv...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was unsurprising in that managed money funds were net sellers through Tuesday’s data reporting period, which obviously coincided with the new contract lows in the grain markets. Funds were aggressive net sellers in corn, SRW wheat, and soyoil but were more cautious...
A Look at Low Carbon Feedstock for Biofuels
At the end of this year the existing biofuel tax credit expires and will be replaced with the new Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC) included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. Those credits which are expiring include the on-again, off-again biodiesel blenders’ tax credit (BTC...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report featured a few surprises, most notably the 11,000-contract net buying in the Chicago wheat market. Heading into the report, expectations were that it would show funds expanding short positions heading into the February AOF from USDA. Rather, funds were parging back shorts...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds still being heavy net sellers in soybeans and corn with light short selling in the SRW wheat contract. Equally unsurprising was the net buying by managed money traders in soymeal and soyoil as they’ve largely whittled...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Rhetoric Meets Reality; Miscalculating Renewables; TTC and AI
Rhetoric Meets Reality German Greens reacted to farmer angst by blaming supermarkets for suppressing prices. Canadian Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne liked that angle and similarly blamed his country’s retailers for food inflation. Major retailer Carrefour then blamed suppli...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Small Refinery Exemptions Under the RFS Back in the Spotlight
A recurring issue since 2016 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been EPA’s administration of the small refinery exemption (SRE) program. A court decision in the 5th District Circuit Court brought that topic back to the forefront, and will add more complexity, volatility, and unce...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Renewable Diesel as “Regional Diesel”
In 2022, renewable diesel (RD) utilization (based on product supplied) surpassed biodiesel (BD) use. For Q1 of 2023, RD has extended the gap. This is not surprising given the rapid expansion of RD capacity in the past couple of years. What also was expected, but perhaps still slightly surprisi...
EPA Effectively Clears the Board of Pending SREs, Projects Not Approving Future Petitions
The EPA announced on Friday that it denied 26 requests for “small refinery exemptions” (SREs) over the periods of 2016-2018 and 2021-2023. There are still two SRE petitions pending for the 2018 compliance year. SRE’s have been a contentious issue for several years. SREs...
Lawmakers Urge USTR to Take on Access to Brazil’s Ethanol Market
On 1 June, a bipartisan group of 21 members of the House of Representatives asked USTR to address Brazil’s treatment of U.S. ethanol, specifically a reinstatement of tariffs and access to Brazil’s carbon credit program for ethanol. Between the tariff and lack of access to the credit...
Will EPA Flip Off the Switch for Electric Vehicles Under the RFS?
EPA is facing a 14 June deadline to finish the 2023-2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The date was set by consent decree with the courts. Recall, the proposed RVOs released in November 2022 included electric vehicles (EVs) as part of the overall vo...