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Market Commentary

The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initial...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Argentina Chinese demand has been active in the South American FOB market due to the trade war, and premiums firmed up quite a bit in the past few...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is on fire as it has followed the U.S. futures market rally. Meanwhile, the weather in southern Russia is far from perfe...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

- It’s been such a long time since grain and oilseed markets have made limit moves higher or lower that a review of those limits might be warranted...

Suicidal Tariffs; Not Beyond Meat

Suicidal Tariffs President Trump irrationally announced that he would impose 5 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico in less than two weeks and take them to...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president a...

Export Sales

Wheat: Net sales of 153,000 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 63 percent from the prior 4-week ave...

Down the Road: A Look at June’s Market Factors

With May and its ag commodity rally in the rearview mirror, it seems an appropriate time to look at what factors are likely to influence the markets in Jun...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.27/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.03/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Livestock Roundup: Record Meat Production; Trade Breakthrough

Record Meat Production Red meat production hit a record high for April at 4.522 billion pounds, split almost evenly between beef at 2.262 billion pounds an...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday&...

Not US, MCA; Pride over Sustenance; Everyone's Politician

Not US, MCA Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has tabled the USMCA agreement in Parliament, and Mexican President André Manuel López Obr...

Don’t Sell in May

Equity traders have an adage about the tendency for stocks to enter a lull during the summer. “Sell in May and go away” has been a staple for y...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.3625/bushel, up $0.175 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, up $0.24 from yesterday's close. ...

Ag Review - May 2019

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soy complex and biofuels sectors, and an assessment of certain gl...

Swiss Miss; Political Ground Shift; Please Make It Stop

Swiss Miss Switzerland has reportedly moved higher on the list of countries potentially negotiating a free trade agreement with the U.S. Swiss Confederatio...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing stat...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.1875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.905/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close.&...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 May 2019 Prices on the domestic market followed the trend of the previous week, either decreasing moderately or remaining stab...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Slightly as Feed Demand Holds Steady China’s soymeal market appears to have found a bottom at the start of May. Feed...

Global Politics Weighs on Trade

Pundits are debating the impacts of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impressive reelection as well as the mood of his Bharatiya Janata Party. Th...

Market Commentary

Trading for the holiday-shortened week started with grains in the green during the overnight session as the wet U.S. weather pattern remained in place over...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. ...

Key EPA Biofuel Regulatory Decision Timeline

The EPA’s proposed rule on year-round E15 use is presently at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The administration has promised to have it i...

Corn and Wheat Spreads Turning Bullish

The fundamentals are changing for corn and wheat. While agricultural commodities have been stuck in a bear market for years now, the late U.S. planting has...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Reports from Syria indicate that thousands of acres of wheat have been destroyed by fire, attributed to...

Cattle on Feed at Record Level for April

USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report today after the market close, and it showed inventory below market expectations, a bullish factor. Ho...

Cattle on Feed

United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent: Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of...

Trouble Before the War; Counterintuitive Uncertainty Benefits

Trouble Before the War Ohio State University Professor Ian Sheldon laments that even if the U.S. and China reach a trade agreement, it will take many years...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.0425/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary

The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration...

Could There Be a Black Swan Event Underway?

This week Dr. Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois Extension Service has been running commentary on Twitter regarding the delays in getting the U.S. c...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade was light as the markets were largely waiting for this morning’s export sales report data. Before it was issued, corn, wheat, and soy...

Congress Complicit in War; Cart Before Horse; S&D=P

Congress Complicit in War The word to the wise is to watch what others do and not what they say, and that is especially true when it comes to politicians...

Missing Details, but Who Cares?

USDA announced today a new farm aid package to help offset “unjustified retaliatory tariffs” from the trade disputes with China, the EU, and Tu...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.8975/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 48,400 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019--a marketing-year low--were down 58 percent from the previous week and 74 percen...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 May 2019 Prices on the domestic market either dropped or remained stable in RUB expression but increased for some crops in USD...

Double-Edged Assistance; Walk and Chew Gum; European Turnover

Double-Edged Assistance The trade mitigation package being floated by the Trump administration is again generous to soybeans but stingy toward corn. In the...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.945/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7275/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary

Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, a...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Recovers Ground on Improved Feed Demand With feed demand from poultry and aquaculture continuing to expand on the backs of China...

Analog’s Future; The Clash and Impacts

Analog’s Future In contrast to Uber, investors have given Beyond Meat a meteoric climb. The question is, how real is the meat analog market? Like IT...

A Break from the Weather: Technical Analysis of the Markets

Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or possibly in Arizona where you might not have noticed), you know that the spring weather across the Midwest...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.9425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary

Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session&rsq...

EPA Biofuel Rules on the Way: Impact of E15 and Reset

The EPA has promised to have the waiver to allow year-round E15 use in place by the beginning of the summer driving season (1 June-15 September), which is...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government reports that it has bought 2.2 MMT of local wheat against a target purchase of...

USMCA to the Fore; Diluted Restitution

USMCA to the Fore The Trump administration’s lifting of tariffs on aluminum and steel from Canada and Mexico has moved consideration of the USMCA agr...

Market Commentary

The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The U.S. 2019 planting season is grim, and there is little or no relief in sight based on the latest weather forecasts. The Corn Belt and northern Plains w...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The U.S. trade war has been leading the soybean market for several months, but the latest developments (for the worse) have certai...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.89/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.7825/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. ...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week in sympathy with the CBOT and Matif futures. Russia has exported about 33.8 MMT thus far in the cur...

Key Issues Teed Up in Congress, but No Easy Path Forward

As USDA works on the details of a $15-20 billion relief package for agriculture, intended to mitigate the impact of China’s retaliation on the Trump...

China Forces Trump Hand; Global Readjustment; Turkey Signaling

China Forces Trump Hand He has tried to take on the world singlehandedly, but China’s resistance has forced President Trump to back off on his object...

Renewable Diesel: Better and Eventually Bigger?

There is an ongoing shift in the biofuels market toward more renewable diesel, which at some point will start to put a squeeze on traditional biomass-based...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today,...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.8325/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.65/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...

Fish or Cut Bait

The extremely slow pace of corn planting in the U.S. was previously discussed in the 13 May analysis (click here). The eastern Corn Belt is especially affe...

Market Commentary

  After yesterday’s pause, grain markets shot higher today and pulled the soy complex along for the ride. The weather remains a focus with fund...

Paying War Reparations

A major power conceding in a war usually takes many years and horrific losses. The undeclared war by the U.S. against North Vietnam lasted 20 years and too...

Meat Production Outlook

In the May WASDE (released last week), USDA projected growth in feed use of corn based on supplies and prices, but it also increased animal units. While tr...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.79/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.67/bushel, up $0.1825 from yesterday's close.  J...

Want More Sales? Try Owning a Restaurant

The U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly advance retail sales report, released Tuesday, suggests that owning a restaurant is likely to be a sales-boosting en...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 114,500 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 52 percent from the prior 4...

Market Commentary

In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 May 2019 Domestic prices were either stable or decreased moderately. Meanwhile, changes on the export market were more signific...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.695/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.4875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Continues to Drop The nationwide estimated soymeal inventory tumbled further following the five-day Labor Day holiday celebratio...

Market Commentary

The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows...

FT Lies; Captive Suppliers

FT Lies Writing for the Financial Times, Rana Foroohar says that big companies have been society’s main economic beneficiaries and notes that Democra...

Deconstructing the U.S.-China Trade War

News from inside the trade negotiations with China has generally been positive for about six months. Starting late last year (19 December 2018), the 1 Janu...

Market Changes Ahead?

U.S. trade policy has been a constant companion for grain and soy markets virtually every day since President Trump was inaugurated in January 2017. One of...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Update MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Officials in Iran say that wheat crops in some areas are up 30 percent. Production is expected to total...

2020 Proposed RFS Volumes Up Slightly

Last week the EPA sent its proposed rule on 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to the Office of Management and...

Market Commentary

Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while...

Corn Planting Progress

It seems that the only potentially bullish market factor today is the slow pace of corn planting in the U.S. The possibility of significant delays tha...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.565/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.37/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Cash Payment Issues The volatility in forex markets and the Argentine peso’s devaluation led to government intervention in the deba...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week due to the absence of export demand for old crop as well as the bearish outlook of last Fri...

WASDE Wheat

USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft...

WASDE Soyoil

USDA Notes: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is forecast at 124.2 million tons, down 9.6 million from 2018/19, mainly on lower soybean production...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA Notes: The U.S. soybean crush for 2019/20 is projected at 2,115 million bushels, up from the 2018/19 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance p...

Market Commentary

Markets traded mostly steady overnight and until the USDA WASDE was released at noon (EDT) today. Both the 2018/19 revisions and the first look at 2019/20...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.5175/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close...

USDA Report Bearish Corn, Wheat and Soybeans

Today’s USDA supply and demand estimates increased old crop ending stocks of U.S. corn, wheat and soybeans. No adjustments were made to the 2019 corn...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA Notes: The 2019/20 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and slightly lower ending stocks compared to 2018/19.  The s...

Fuel Aid Better than Food Aid; Fake or Fad, Trumped

Fuel Aid Better than Food Aid President Trump says that larger federal receipts from the higher tariffs on goods imported from China will be used to purcha...

WASDE Corn

USDA Notes: Total U.S. corn use in 2019/20 is forecast to rise relative to a year ago as greater domestic use offsets a slight decline in exports.&nbs...

Market Commentary

One way or another, today’s grain and soy futures market action was all about China and the critical negotiations that began later this afternoon. We...

Trade Matters; State Legislation on CAFOs

Trade Matters Ag markets are on pins and needles as they wait to see if a trade deal can be salvaged from the U.S.-China negotiations now taking place in W...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.5325/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.295/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Real Trade War; Interstate Trade War

Real Trade War Tariffs applied by both the U.S. and China are staged to rise substantially tomorrow unless there is a last-minute agreement between each co...

What Are the Fundamentals?

USDA will release its May 2019 WASDE tomorrow (10 May) at noon (EDT). While it will update U.S. and world supply/demand estimates for the current crop year...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 90,600 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019--a marketing-year low--were down 26 percent from the previous week and 68 percen...

Market Commentary

The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some m...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 April-3 May 2019 There were only two working days during the week in review, but prices mostly followed a downward trend during t...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6425/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.39/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&n...

China In-Country Analysis

Policy Developments Presidents Xi and Trump Continue High Stakes Game of Chicken Over the weekend, President Trump used Twitter, his favorite communication...

Market Commentary

For all the political turbulence surrounding the trade dispute with China, the scheduled increase in tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and other rel...

Weaker Alone

The market is wagering that the U.S.-China trade war is escalated this Friday, and it may be right. China has pushed back against threats by President Trum...

Assets, Trade and Agriculture

An article of interest in Monday’s Wall Street Journal cited the ongoing survey conducted byDeutsche Bank AG that tracks the value and total return p...

Ethanol Overview

The U.S. Energy information Administration (EIA) today released the May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which maintains its estimate of ethanol use in 20...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.665/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria will pay about $359/MT for the wheat it purchases from farmers, up nearly $20/MT versus last year...

Market Commentary

Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10...

Pivotal May 10th; Socialist Agriculture; Cost of Diversity

Pivotal May 10th Markets this Friday have two metrics to watch: the WASDE and Donald Trump’s tariffs on the Chinese. His threat to substantially ramp...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6425/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close...

No China Trade Deal?

The grain trade returned to work last night with the strong possibility that the much-anticipated trade deal with China might not happen. This was based on...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Argentina Last week Argentina posted a few offers in the local market, although volume was small with the labor strike on Tuesday and Labor Day ho...

Dem Ag Strategies

With President Trump’s tweet this weekend that he’s ready to escalate the trade war with China, the administration’s recalcitrance on rem...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained under pressure last week due to the absence of fresh demand for old crop wheat as well as the favorable weather...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.7075/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.38/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...

Amateur Hour

As the U.S. and China reportedly near the conclusion of bilateral trade negotiations, Trump administration officials are turning their focus to Japan, thou...

Market Commentary

Markets traded relatively thinly to close out the week today, although volume earlier this week was quite strong. The China trade talks will resume again n...

Prevented Planting/Lost Acres Getting More Attention

It is now 3 May, and little planting progress has been accomplished across the Corn Belt and northern Plains. The weather remains too wet and too cold to g...

The Fed: Nominees, Commodities and Inflation

Most of the attention paid to the Federal Reserve over the past several weeks has been focused on the president’s intended nomination of Herman Cain...

Market Commentary

With yesterday’s May Day celebrants back at work today, trading volume for grain and soy markets picked up and will probably be above the recent aver...

Livestock Producer Turnaround; ASF Update

Livestock Producer Turnaround Cow/calf operators and hog feeders have seen a decrease in margins over the past three years, according to the latest data on...

India’s Water; Politicized Trade; Trade Negotiation Outcomes

India’s Water India is still hoping to hold the Trump administration from removing it from eligibility for lower tariffs under the Generalized System...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.705/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.44/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Jul...

More Straws in the Wind

Grain and soy futures markets have been rather boring affairs for two years or more. To be sure, there have been a few short-term bursts of activity and pr...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 122,100 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019--a marketing-year low--were down 71 percent from the previous week and 72 perce...

Market Commentary

The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. T...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 April 2019 Domestic grain prices declined or remained stable in RUB expression except for milling rye prices, which rose sligh...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.685/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.36/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  J...

China In-Country Analysis

Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt an...

Market Commentary

The U.S. trade delegation is a meeting with its Chinese counterpart in Beijing today, and what have become the usual optimistic noises from both sides are...

Congress’s Ag To-Do List

Congress is back in session today after a two-week recess for Easter and Passover, and the four weeks until the Memorial Day recess will be crucial for som...

Worrisome Weather Delays Planting

The first six weeks of spring have been unusually cold and wet for most of the central U.S. Drenching rains together with the melting of an unusually deep...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.625/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Turkey says it will be a “key player in global grain” with plans to greatly expand storage/...

Market Commentary

The Sunday night session was quiet with corn higher while wheat and soybeans were slightly lower. That trading pattern didn’t change today. Corn was...

Russia Meat Subsidy; Secondary Effects

Russia Meat Subsidy The Russian government will reportedly allocate $6.5 billion for “soft” export-oriented investment loans to the meat indust...

Lower Prices and Weather Will Reduce U.S. Spring Wheat Acres

Cash prices for hard red spring wheat across the Dakotas and western Minnesota continue to press lower, and they are now down to $4.25-4.50/bushel for 14 p...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s economic situation is growing more complex every day. Both external and internal factors (infla...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6175/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.3525/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&n...

Trade Economics and GDP

U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 3.2 percent, according to the initial report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) last...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained under pressure last week in sympathy with the EU and U.S. markets. With its export surplus almost entirely gone...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.425/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  J...

Market Commentary

The beat goes on (just more slowly). Corn and wheat prices were slightly higher overnight with soybeans slightly lower. That’s how the market opened...

Hill Jam; SOE Definition; Sweet Data

Hill Jam Researchers at the University of Warwick in the UK affirm the work of other economists in finding that the imposition of tariffs harms both the fo...

Bearish Attitudes Will Be Tough to Change

The continuing decline in wheat, corn and soybean prices is good news for the world’s consumers, but it is very bad news for the world’s produc...

An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector

Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which w...

Market Commentary

Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s close...

Final 2018 Red Meat Production; China Update; NYC Meat Reduction

Final 2018 Red Meat Production USDA released the final tally of 2018 red meat production yesterday. Beef and pork production were individually 103 percent...

The Good and the Bad

It has been said that commodities futures markets are zero-sum games, that someone’s gains are always offset by someone else’s losses. Whereas...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.5725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...

Ag Review - April 2019

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soybean industry and U.S. meat/livestock industry, and an assessm...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 425,300 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 34 percent from the previous week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-...

Market Commentary

Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 April 2019 While grain prices on the domestic market mostly dropped in RUB expression, they grew slightly in USD expression du...

Tri-Rift; Labor Waves

Tri-Rift President Donald Trump has ripped apart the trilateral EU-Japan-U.S. policy consortium and looks to increasingly target Europe with his bitterness...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.4675/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.385/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&n...

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends March Economic Data Points to Effects of Stimulus and ASF In response to a sharp economic slowdown and the ongoing impact of the trade war wit...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices chopped slightly around either side of unchanged in overnight trade, giving rise to thoughts that those markets might be able to muste...

Ethanol Growth Faces Mixed Bag of RFS Regulations

According to data released late last week, the EPA has granted one additional small refinery exemption (SRE) for 2017 and received three more SRE requests...

Transparency’s Cost to Innovation

There is widespread support in Europe for the new revisions to the General Food Law, but research may prove the risk that the critics have warned about. Un...

Agricultural Funds and ETFs

The theory that commodities were a useful tool for anyone seeking to diversify an investment portfolio gained considerable popularity in the early years of...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.5125/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS  As of 15 April, Egypt had bought approximately 365,000 MT of local wheat against its purchase tar...

Market Commentary

Grain and oilseed markets came back from the long Easter holiday weekend in a slightly bearish mode overnight and today with wheat the weakest. Weather for...

Polarized WTO; Nonautomatic Market Economy; Free Trade Diversion

Polarized WTO It is not just politics in the U.S. and Europe that are polarized – so is the global trading system. India plans to host developing cou...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.5475/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.4175/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close...

Latest Summer Weather Maps

NOAA updates its long-term weather forecasts near the end of each month, and the April updates were released late last week. There have been some concerns...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The soybean market was very slow last week as it was shortened by the Easter-related holiday. It was even slower today as Monday i...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week in the absence of fresh demand. Consumers in the major destinations are more or less covered until...

Cattle on Feed at Record Level for April

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report for 1 April on Thursday, which was a day early because of the Good Friday holiday. The mostly neutral...

Good Friday

The markets are closed tomorrow, 19 April 2019 in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed that day, and the next Ag Pers...

Market Commentary

Note: CME grain and soy markets are closed tomorrow (Friday) and will re-open Easter Sunday evening. U.S. government offices will be open tomorrow, however...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 317,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 28 percent from the prior 4...

Cherry-Pick USMCA; PRC TKO; FAANG Attack

Cherry-Pick USMCA The economic analysis of the U.S.-Mexica-Canada Agreement (USMCA) by the U.S. International Trade Administration was released today and g...

Cattle on Feed

April 1 2019 Cattle on Feed totaled 12.0 million head; 2 percent above April 1, 2018. This is the highest April 1 inventory since the series began in 1996...

The 2017 Census of Agriculture

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) conducts a census of U.S. production agricultural every five years. The most recent one, comp...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.585/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.4425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&n...

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Chinese Soy Demand

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report for the week ending 11 April indicated U.S. soybean sales were up from the previous...

Cattle on Feed Pre-Report

With the Good Friday holiday tomorrow, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report, detailing the number on feed as of 1 April, today after the mar...

Market Commentary

After yesterday’s lashing, the grain and soy futures markets tried to rally during the overnight session. Corn and soybeans gained a few cents, and w...

The Outsized Burden; Handbag Solution

The Outsized Burden Cuba is a small island country that imposes an outsized burden on U.S. politics, but this is declining. Historically, there were two pr...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 April 2019 Domestic prices fluctuated in the South and Volga Valley but mostly decreased in other regions. The average milling...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.5825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.47/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...

What do February’s Retail Sales Mean for Agriculture?

The consumer is often said to be the backbone of the U.S. economy, and that looks to be a positive factor for the food and agricultural sectors. The U.S. C...

Market Commentary

For the second day of this holiday-shortened week, the overnight session produced minor losses for grain and the soy complex amid extremely light trading v...

Two Ships Passing; Greening Up or Green Wash?; Whitewash

Two Ships Passing Yesterday EU Trade Minister Cecilia Malmström declared that with the new negotiating mandate, she is prepared to sit down immediatel...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.59/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.45/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Things to Consider

China and weather are the topics that have dominated market chatter for the last several weeks, but they have not generated a breakout movement of grain an...

Shrinking Future of the RFS

Sometime in the next six to eight weeks, the EPA will propose the Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2020 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt had rejected a cargo of French wheat due to high ergot levels, but the 63,000 MT were found to be...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview Chinese demand remains very slow. There was some tepid interest for nearby positions, but basis has continued to drop in Argentina...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading had corn and soybean markets higher with wheat markets slightly lower, and the only thing that changed during today’s session was a...

Azevêdo Channels Trump

German Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor Olag Scholz told his audience at the Peterson Institute in Washington that transatlantic partners should not ge...

Chatter About AFS, Chinese Hog Production and Soy

An article from Bloomberg over the weekend (click here) about the potential long-term impact of African swine fever (ASF) on world soybean demand didn&rsqu...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6275/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

U.S.-Japan FTA Goals and Scope

Preliminary negotiations on a new free trade agreement (FTA) between the U.S. and Japan commenced today. Since the U.S. withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Par...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market once again remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic prices are reportedly around $3-4/MT higher. It h...

EIA Forecasts on Biofuels

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) this week. The agency trimmed back both production a...

Asia Perspectives; Pesticidal Suicide

Asia Perspectives President Donald Trump said yesterday that North Korea will remain under sanctions but that he believes an agreement with Pyongyang will...

Market Commentary

Trading volume was light today. Corn and wheat were slightly lower through most of the day, while soybeans traded a penny or two higher for a brief time an...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.61/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  May...

USDA Makes Changes to WASDE Tables

USDA announced this week that it will make some changes (noted below) to the monthly WASDE (supply and demand estimates) starting with the May report. Whil...

Market Commentary

Soybeans and corn were about unchanged in low volume overnight trading, while wheat was up a couple of pennies. The market was waiting for the export sales...

Hog Wild Pork Markets

After a few weeks out of the market, China purchased 77,700 MT of U.S. pork last week. That makes it the number three destination (behind Mexico and Korea)...

Can’t Walk the Talk; Limited Policy Options; On the Other Foot

Can’t Walk the Talk German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World B...

Impossible Burgers and Change

Environmentalists and climate warriors have long targeted agriculture, particularly intensive animal agriculture, as a prime source of greenhouse gases and...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 273,000 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were down 61 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-wee...

Market Commentary

Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more...

Debating Change and AgTech

USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue yesterday called the EU a “technology-free zone” when it comes to agriculture. It is true that Europe’s resis...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 April 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated in RUB expression but decreased in USD expression due to the weaker ruble. The avera...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course as Feed Demand Improves Modest improvements in feed demand last week coupled with a drop in imported soybean sto...

WASDE Soyoil

Soybean oil changes include increased imports and domestic disappearance for biodiesel and for food use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean oil price is proj...

Market Commentary

The April 2019 WASDE was mostly neutral the grains complex but bullish soyoil as USDA’s changes offered few surprises. The CBOT had a weaker tone bef...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA estimates that global oilseed ending stocks are up 1.5 million tons to 123.2 million, largely due to higher soybean stocks for Brazil and rapeseed sto...

Wet Weather Impacting Ethanol

Ethanol producers were already dealing with building inventories, lower blending rates and cheaper crude oil (U.S. crude production was up 17 percent in 20...

WASDE Soybean

USDA estimates that U.S. soybean supply and use changes in the April WASDE include lower imports, higher seed use, and lower ending stocks. With soybean cr...

Flights of Fancy; Notable Approach; Farmer Protests

Flights of Fancy In response to a recent WTO ruling on respective subsidies for Airbus and Boeing aircraft, USTR announced the proposed retaliatory tariffs...

More Straws in the Wind

- Today is WASDE day with USDA’s release of this month’s edition. The April WASDE is normally uneventful with South American crop production le...

WASDE Corn

USDA estimated the 2018/19 outlook for U.S. corn is for lower feed and residual use, reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports, and larger stocks. Fe...

WASDE Wheat

USDA estimates that the outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat is unchanged in the April WASDE. Total 2018/19 feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels t...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  May...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The latest USDA-FAS report on Turkish grains indicates that better rainfall through February 2019 versu...

Beef and Cattle Market Anomalies

There are important anomalies in the cattle and beef markets this year. Futures have shown amazing strength, buoyed largely by export demand. Now as fed ca...

Market Commentary

Grain and oilseeds markets were mixed to start the week in the Sunday night session. Soybeans traded slightly higher through most of the night with corn st...

Recessions and Winner of Sino-American Trade War

A large majority of respondents in WPI’s most recent survey do not expect a global recession by 2020 (see graph below).  Meanwhile, U.S. farmer...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

- It appears that wet weather will continue to cause planting delays across the northern Plains and the Corn Belt. The two maps below show the five-and sev...

Politics of the Biodiesel Tax Credit

With the second quarter of 2019 underway, the House is moving toward a restoration of the biodiesel tax credit (BTC), which expired 31 December 2017. A bil...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview Brazilian basis has been dropping due to lack of Chinese demand. Although board crush margins aren’t bad in China, soymeal a...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6525/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was again about unchanged last week. Russia’s exports have reached approximately 31.5 MMT since the start of the c...

Congressional Budget Process Starts (Sort of)

This past Wednesday the House Budget Committee passed its legislation to amend the budgeting process for the next two years (FY 2020 and FY 2021). The auth...

Difficult Tea Leaves; Policy Shorts

Difficult Tea Leaves President Trump previously laid down a hard 90-day deadline for reaching a trade agreement with China, but now he says one could arriv...

Market Commentary

Markets were weak overnight and more so today as the trade again grew weary of all the positive talk regarding the U.S. China dispute with still no real de...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.625/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6775/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.&n...

Demise of Farmers Greatly Exaggerated

There have been numerous news stories about the expanding financial crises in U.S. agriculture. Many of these stories were instigated by the Trump tariffs...

Market Commentary

It is a waiting game. Agricultural interests of nearly every variety hope that this afternoon’s meeting between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu and Presiden...

Dangerous Electoral Changes

U.S. presidential candidates racing for the Democratic Party nomination are proposing major electoral reforms to strengthen outcomes in their favor. The id...

Are Markets Poised to Move?

For the past two years, grain and soy futures market prices have been knocking about in a series of relatively narrow price ranges. This is not to say that...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6525/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&n...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 704,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 48 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week...

Market Commentary

It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they...

Franco-American Battle; EU Crop Insurance

Franco-American Battle French President Emmanuel Macron is stymieing agreement in Brussels on the EU’s trade negotiating mandate with the U.S. He wan...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Average Live Pig Price Rises Another 3.5 Percent China’s national average live pig price climbed 3.5 percent from the previou...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.71/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 25-29 March 2019 The average grain prices on the domestic market continued to drop in RUB expression for the most part. However, the...

Market Commentary

There was an effort to continue yesterday’s rally overnight. However, enthusiasm faded rather quickly as markets settled into mundane trade with soyb...

Fake Issue Campaign; Trade Policy Suicide

Fake Issue Campaign During the 2016 campaign, candidate Donald Trump manufactured many fake issues such as illegal immigrants causing a crime wave and NAFT...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.615/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Straws in the Wind

Grain and soy complex futures markets are uninspiring these days with the exception of Friday’s reaction to USDA’s stocks and acreage reports...

Possible Paths Forward for Ag Disaster Relief

The Senate is considering a $13.45 billion disaster relief bill for states impacted by natural disasters in 2017 and 2018 as well as the recent flooding in...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Today's Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis report features an abbreviated set of tables due to an illness on the part of our regular c...

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets found small measures of support in the Sunday night session, while wheat was mostly steady. Volume was good overnight, especially...

Ag Lags Economy; Brown Leap Backward

Ag Lags Economy Despite a trade war, a government shutdown, Brexit, declines in factory output and consumer spending plus other worries, the stock market h...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The market was slow last week with Chinese demand focused last Thursday on buying U.S. soybeans for July and August shipment, whic...

U.S. Corn Outlook Turns Bearish

Last Friday USDA provided a much bigger 1 March quarterly stocks estimate for corn than anyone in the trade expected. The number came in at 270 million bus...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6275/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Russia has exported about 31 MMT so far this season, and most analysts are now estim...

Market Commentary

The U.S. farm economy didn’t find any relief on the immediate horizon in today’s USDA acreage and quarterly stocks estimates (see today’s...

USDA Lands One-Two Punch to Corn’s Chin

Today’s USDA planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports landed a tough one-two punch to the corn market. The former indicated that farmers inte...

Illogic on the Border; Wars and Recessions

Illogic on the Border With hundreds of Central American families overwhelming the southern U.S. border each day with asylum pleas, President Donald Trump m...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.565/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&...

Hogs and Pigs Report: No Slowdown in Expansion

The U.S. inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 March totaled 74.3 million head, 102 percent of last year. However, it was down slightly from 74.6 million head on...

Market Commentary

As expected on the day before major USDA reports, overnight trading volume in grain and soy futures was subdued. In price action, soybeans were 2-3 cents h...

Failed Rural Strategy; Government Dis-Org; Climate Protectionism

Failed Rural Strategy Some Democratic Party strategists have reasonably concluded that it is easier to court rural voters than to dissipate their political...

Hog Price “Hockey Stick;” China’s Poultry Imports

Hog Price “Hockey Stick” The impacts of African swine fever (ASF) in China are being felt in the hog market. Last week hog prices rebounded to...

The Other Trade Battle

Ever since the tit-for-tat tariff war between the U.S. and China began last July, the dispute has dominated the trade agenda within the Trump administratio...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.74/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.645/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...

Ag Review - March 2019

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soybean crush and U.S. biofuels industry, and an assessment of ce...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 475,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 59 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week...

Market Commentary

Last night’s session produced a story similar to that told by overnight trade of grain and soy futures for much of the last few weeks – mixed p...

Brexit Irony; Prospective Geopolitical Plantings; Crazy Lady

Brexit Irony The UK remains in a state of dysfunction as politicians attempt to meet the demand of their constituents to leave the EU while understanding t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 March 2019 Prices on the domestic market again declined in RUB expression but moved in different directions in USD expression...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Average Live Pig Price Soared 12 Percent Through Mid-March With all the chaos surrounding African swine fever (ASF), the publishing...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets were quiet with little change in prices overnight. Soybeans were down 1-2 cents, corn was unchanged to fractionally lower, and Chicag...

Does Hemp Have a Role in Livestock Feed?

The 2018 Farm Bill legalized industrial production of hemp and its marketing as well as the marketing of its derivatives in interstate commerce. That, howe...

A Look at Acreage and Quarterly Stocks

Grain and soy markets are dividing their focus between this week’s trade negotiations in Beijing and USDA’s reports on initial planting intenti...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco’s central bank has indicated that the country’s grain production will be down about...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6925/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close...

Flooding Gives Bump to Ethanol, but for How Long?

The weather markets have hit ethanol, providing some welcomed price relief. The flooding in the Corn Belt has interrupted shipping/delivery and given a bum...

Market Commentary

It was another very quiet start to the week overnight with soybeans slightly higher, corn steady and wheat slightly lower. Markets opened steady across the...

Mueller’s Gift; Needed Farm Focus

Mueller’s Gift Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report on the Trump administration and Russian interference in the 2016 election is complete, a...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The soybean market showed some movement for nearby positions last week as the Chinese looked to cover March, April, May and even s...

Weather Markets in March? Maybe

It seems that with so few noteworthy items that move markets these days, we might as well try to generate a weather market. That sounds very hard to do on...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7975/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week as it followed the trend of EU and U.S. markets. Russia’s export pace has slowed to about 300...

1 March Cattle on Feed Report

USDA today released the monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report for 1 March. It showed the total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 1.8 m...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet wea...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.66/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...

Cattle on Feed

USDA estimates:  Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8...

Soybean Refresh

A great deal of proverbial water has passed under the bridge since WPI wrote about our initial soybean outlook for MY 2019/20 on 14 January Not very much h...

Market Commentary

The overnight session continued the recent trend of low trading volume and narrow, mixed price movement. This occurred as traders await developments from n...

Policy Opportunities and Risks

Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its...

Pre-Report Forecasts

The release tomorrow of USDA’s Cattle on Feed report gets the monthly series back on schedule after the government shutdown. It will show the total n...

What Lies Ahead for the Markets?

Grain/soy futures and cash markets have maintained a relatively low price profile for two years or more. Low grain and soy prices have been a major contrib...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7625/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.665/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 298,600 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for South Korea (75,500 MT), Sri Lanka (65,000 MT,...

Market Commentary

It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 March 2019 Domestic grain prices decreased in RUB expression but moved in different directions or remained unchanged in USD ex...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6475/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Export Trends Year-End USDA Data Shows Trade Winners and Losers Following delays caused by the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, USDA has now manage...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead c...

The State of Agtech: Assessing Its Political Risk

One of the darlings of the investment world is the emerging sector of agtech. Investment is flowing to a number of discrete markets and technologies,...

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns; China Hopeful

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns Today’s joint statement by U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had some good news for A...

Chinese Trade Soap Opera and Markets

Having commented so often about U.S.-China trade relations and the ongoing negotiations, we fear we risk boring clients. However, the trade negotiations ar...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.565/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close...

Big Trouble in Big China

Not a WPI client? Please email Matt at mherrington@agrilink.com or subscribe to Ag Perspectives: International or Ag Perspectives: All Acces...

Market Commentary

Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market...

Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts

Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations...

March Corn Update

There have been changes to the 2018/19 corn balance sheet since our first look at the potential supply/demand outlook on 18 January. USDA reduced the expor...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...

EU-U.S. Tentative Deal on Beef

Even though the EU-U.S. trade agreement talks are not moving apace, largely because of the EU reluctance to include agriculture versus U.S. insistence that...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has reversed the downward trend it had been following since January. The buyers/consumers have certainly appreciated the...

More Small Refinery Exemptions Granted

The EPA announced yesterday that it had granted five additional small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2017, reducing the number of pending petitions in the...

Against the Grain; Bipartisan Horses; China and EU Deals

Against the Grain Demographics are destiny, and with 60 percent of the world’s population and some of its fastest-growing economies, this is supposed...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6225/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on an...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil...

Trump’s China Mystery; The EU Bullseye; SOEs in Focus

Trump’s China Mystery U.S. President Donald’s Trump’s characterization of his negotiations with the Chinese are not adding up unless Xi&r...

Market Commentary

Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pric...

Family Farms versus Big Ag—Again

The next U.S. presidential election occurs in about 20 months, but the campaign season is already well underway. President Donald Trump is more than halfwa...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5275/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 263,000 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for Nigeria (106,300 MT, including 24,000 MT switc...

Market Commentary

NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they ar...

Creative Destruction; Ignoring Economics

Creative Destruction It is often said that it is easier to use government to stop something from happening than to use it to make something happen. Some me...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4-7 March 2019 Grain prices on the domestic market mainly decreased under pressure from negative trends on the export market. The av...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.665/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.4725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&n...

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends February Economic Data Points to Serious Weakness Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates the country’s Purchasi...

Market Commentary

It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record l...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6575/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.53/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. ...

Where Have All the Bulls Gone?

It has been a very tough few weeks for grain and soy market bulls, assuming there are still any left. Those markets have been in a rather steady retreat wi...

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