Today’s USDA planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports landed a tough one-two punch to the corn market. The former indicated that farmers inte...
Articles
Illogic on the Border; Wars and Recessions
Illogic on the Border With hundreds of Central American families overwhelming the southern U.S. border each day with asylum pleas, President Donald Trump m...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.565/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&...
Hogs and Pigs Report: No Slowdown in Expansion
The U.S. inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 March totaled 74.3 million head, 102 percent of last year. However, it was down slightly from 74.6 million head on...
Market Commentary
As expected on the day before major USDA reports, overnight trading volume in grain and soy futures was subdued. In price action, soybeans were 2-3 cents h...
Failed Rural Strategy; Government Dis-Org; Climate Protectionism
Failed Rural Strategy Some Democratic Party strategists have reasonably concluded that it is easier to court rural voters than to dissipate their political...
Hog Price “Hockey Stick;” China’s Poultry Imports
Hog Price “Hockey Stick” The impacts of African swine fever (ASF) in China are being felt in the hog market. Last week hog prices rebounded to...
The Other Trade Battle
Ever since the tit-for-tat tariff war between the U.S. and China began last July, the dispute has dominated the trade agenda within the Trump administratio...
Oilseed Highlights: Flooding-Induced Soybean Losses; Brazilian Soy Crop; Canadian Canola
Losses of Soybeans to Flooding It will be years before the damage done by the widespread floods in Nebraska, western Iowa and Missouri are overcome. Roads,...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.74/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.645/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...
Ag Review - March 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soybean crush and U.S. biofuels industry, and an assessment of ce...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 475,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 59 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week...
Market Commentary
Last night’s session produced a story similar to that told by overnight trade of grain and soy futures for much of the last few weeks – mixed p...
Brexit Irony; Prospective Geopolitical Plantings; Crazy Lady
Brexit Irony The UK remains in a state of dysfunction as politicians attempt to meet the demand of their constituents to leave the EU while understanding t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 March 2019 Prices on the domestic market again declined in RUB expression but moved in different directions in USD expression...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Average Live Pig Price Soared 12 Percent Through Mid-March With all the chaos surrounding African swine fever (ASF), the publishing...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were quiet with little change in prices overnight. Soybeans were down 1-2 cents, corn was unchanged to fractionally lower, and Chicag...
GMOs’ Nuclear Epiphany; USMCA Calculation; Reform Insurance
GMOs’ Nuclear Epiphany The Union of Concerned Scientists, which doesn’t always use science in its public policy positions, has historically cri...
Does Hemp Have a Role in Livestock Feed?
The 2018 Farm Bill legalized industrial production of hemp and its marketing as well as the marketing of its derivatives in interstate commerce. That, howe...
A Look at Acreage and Quarterly Stocks
Grain and soy markets are dividing their focus between this week’s trade negotiations in Beijing and USDA’s reports on initial planting intenti...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco’s central bank has indicated that the country’s grain production will be down about...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6925/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close...
Flooding Gives Bump to Ethanol, but for How Long?
The weather markets have hit ethanol, providing some welcomed price relief. The flooding in the Corn Belt has interrupted shipping/delivery and given a bum...
Market Commentary
It was another very quiet start to the week overnight with soybeans slightly higher, corn steady and wheat slightly lower. Markets opened steady across the...
Mueller’s Gift; Needed Farm Focus
Mueller’s Gift Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report on the Trump administration and Russian interference in the 2016 election is complete, a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The soybean market showed some movement for nearby positions last week as the Chinese looked to cover March, April, May and even s...
Weather Markets in March? Maybe
It seems that with so few noteworthy items that move markets these days, we might as well try to generate a weather market. That sounds very hard to do on...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7975/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week as it followed the trend of EU and U.S. markets. Russia’s export pace has slowed to about 300...
1 March Cattle on Feed Report
USDA today released the monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report for 1 March. It showed the total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 1.8 m...
Failed Tomato Farmers; Blasé Program Changes; New Transatlantic Conditionality
Failed Tomato Farmers The most efficient way to grow tomatoes is in greenhouses or hot houses. Most Mexican tomatoes are grown this way, but Florida grower...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet wea...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.66/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...
Cattle on Feed
USDA estimates: Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8...
Soybean Refresh
A great deal of proverbial water has passed under the bridge since WPI wrote about our initial soybean outlook for MY 2019/20 on 14 January Not very much h...
Market Commentary
The overnight session continued the recent trend of low trading volume and narrow, mixed price movement. This occurred as traders await developments from n...
Policy Opportunities and Risks
Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its...
Pre-Report Forecasts
The release tomorrow of USDA’s Cattle on Feed report gets the monthly series back on schedule after the government shutdown. It will show the total n...
What Lies Ahead for the Markets?
Grain/soy futures and cash markets have maintained a relatively low price profile for two years or more. Low grain and soy prices have been a major contrib...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S.Soy Export Sales; Turkey’s Soy Imports, Russian Soy Trade
U.S. Soy Export Sales Update After weeks of substantial sales, USDA’s weekly export sales report indicated there was a sharp drop for the week ending...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7625/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.665/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 298,600 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for South Korea (75,500 MT), Sri Lanka (65,000 MT,...
Market Commentary
It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25...
China Enforcement Problems; AI over ASF; African Food Import Dependence
China Enforcement Problems President Trump says the U.S. will keep punitive tariffs on China to ensure it keeps its commitments. USTR Lighthizer reportedly...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 March 2019 Domestic grain prices decreased in RUB expression but moved in different directions or remained unchanged in USD ex...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6475/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Export Trends Year-End USDA Data Shows Trade Winners and Losers Following delays caused by the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, USDA has now manage...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead c...
The State of Agtech: Assessing Its Political Risk
One of the darlings of the investment world is the emerging sector of agtech. Investment is flowing to a number of discrete markets and technologies,...
Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns; China Hopeful
Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns Today’s joint statement by U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had some good news for A...
Chinese Trade Soap Opera and Markets
Having commented so often about U.S.-China trade relations and the ongoing negotiations, we fear we risk boring clients. However, the trade negotiations ar...
Oilseed Highlights: African Swine Fever and Soy Demand; Argentine Soybean Sales; Bolivian Drought
Global Soy Demand May Take Big Hit from African Swine Fever The widespread outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) is now well known, and it continues unabat...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.565/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close...
Big Trouble in Big China
Not a WPI client? Please email Matt at mherrington@agrilink.com or subscribe to Ag Perspectives: International or Ag Perspectives: All Acces...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market...
Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts
Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations...
March Corn Update
There have been changes to the 2018/19 corn balance sheet since our first look at the potential supply/demand outlook on 18 January. USDA reduced the expor...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...
EU-U.S. Tentative Deal on Beef
Even though the EU-U.S. trade agreement talks are not moving apace, largely because of the EU reluctance to include agriculture versus U.S. insistence that...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has reversed the downward trend it had been following since January. The buyers/consumers have certainly appreciated the...
More Small Refinery Exemptions Granted
The EPA announced yesterday that it had granted five additional small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2017, reducing the number of pending petitions in the...
Against the Grain; Bipartisan Horses; China and EU Deals
Against the Grain Demographics are destiny, and with 60 percent of the world’s population and some of its fastest-growing economies, this is supposed...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6225/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on an...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil...
Trump’s China Mystery; The EU Bullseye; SOEs in Focus
Trump’s China Mystery U.S. President Donald’s Trump’s characterization of his negotiations with the Chinese are not adding up unless Xi&r...
Market Commentary
Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pric...
China Pork Purchase and Trade Deal Outlook; Big Pork Supplies Pressure Hog Prices
China Buys Pork amid Outlook for Bigger Trade Agreement While the U.S.-China trade talks continue, the most recent weekly export sales report from USDA sho...
Family Farms versus Big Ag—Again
The next U.S. presidential election occurs in about 20 months, but the campaign season is already well underway. President Donald Trump is more than halfwa...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5275/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; EU Biodiesel, Palm Oil Futures; EU Rapeseed
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated U.S. exporters were quite successful selling soybeans to China and...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 263,000 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for Nigeria (106,300 MT, including 24,000 MT switc...
Market Commentary
NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they ar...
Creative Destruction; Ignoring Economics
Creative Destruction It is often said that it is easier to use government to stop something from happening than to use it to make something happen. Some me...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-7 March 2019 Grain prices on the domestic market mainly decreased under pressure from negative trends on the export market. The av...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.665/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.4725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&n...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends February Economic Data Points to Serious Weakness Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates the country’s Purchasi...
Market Commentary
It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record l...
Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed; Annual Ethanol Use Down
Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed The EPA released its proposed waiver for year-round E15 use today. As previously reported (click here), it will now...
Anti-Reform’s Fishy Excuses; Commodity Glut; Government over People
Anti-Reform’s Fishy Excuses USTR Robert Lighthizer told the Senate Finance Committee that the WTO rules are out of date and need reform. This is evid...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybeans; U.S. Census Soymeal Data Revision; U.S. Soy Plantings; WASDE Soy Changes
Conab Reduces Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today reduced its estimate for the country’s 2019 soybean cro...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.6575/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.53/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. ...
Where Have All the Bulls Gone?
It has been a very tough few weeks for grain and soy market bulls, assuming there are still any left. Those markets have been in a rather steady retreat wi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian GASC has rejected a shipment of Romanian wheat, saying that it does not meet tender specif...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Update Last week China finally decided to buy more U.S. soybeans, purchasing approximately 2 MMT. The stocks were mainly from the Pacific N...
China Purchasing Commitments; WTO Leverage
China Purchasing Commitments One of the Trump administration’s goals in negotiating a trade deal with China is to get Beijing’s commitment to b...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean started ever so slightly firmer Sunday evening and then traded mixed the rest of the night. All the markets started today’s s...
Funds Slam the Markets
Last week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report confirmed that funds (i.e., managed money) continued to expand their short positions in corn, soybeans...
President’s Budget Proposal Kicks Off Broken Fiscal Process
The president released his proposed FY 2020 budget today. It provides another salvo in the border wall fight along with about $27 billion in cuts for USDA...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.62/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market continues to erode in sympathy with the MATIF and CBOT futures. Russia has exported approximately 29.5 MMT since the sta...
Cattle on Feed
According to USDA: U.S. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11...
WASDE Soyoil
According to USDA: With increased crush, soybean oil production is raised 115 million pounds to 24.6 billion. Soybean oil used for methyl ester produ...
WASDE Soymeal
According to USDA: Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 2,100 million on higher domestic disappearance of soybean meal and a lower soybean m...
WASDE Soybeans
According to USDA: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report.&nb...
Cattle on Feed
USDA’s Cattle on Feed (COF) report for 1 February was released today after being delayed by the government shutdown (the 1 March report will be issue...
WASDE Corn
According to USDA: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks. Corn us...
WASDE Wheat
According to USDA: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks.&nbs...
Wisdom of Traders; All About the Shekels; For Politicians, Not People
Wisdom of Traders Sometimes it takes 50 yeas of experience in an industry to have the wisdom and courage to speak the truth. Derek Chambers, a semi-retired...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.6425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary
Markets tried to be slightly better overnight and this morning in hope that today’s USDA’s reports might contain some positive news. There was...
No Help for the Bulls
The February and March USDA WASDE (supply and demand) estimates rarely make any significant changes as they come during a dead spot in world markets and gr...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume improved, but price movement was limited. Corn and wheat were lower, while soybeans firmed by a few cents ahead of the trading rec...
India Doubles Down; Too Green
India Doubles Down Brazil and Australia have requested WTO dispute consultations with New Delhi, charging that India’s sugar subsidies exceed its com...
The March WASDE and Beyond
Normally, the March WASDE competes for being the least exciting issue of the year. With the South American harvest already underway, it is positioned betwe...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; China and Canadian Canola; China’s Pork Purchase, Swine Sector and Declining Soy Demand
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA’s export sales report for the week ending 28 February indicated the total for soybeans was far be...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.6525/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.3825/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close...
Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow after the market closes. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number on feed a...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 621,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for Mexico (156,600 MT, including decreases of 13,...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with c...
Communist Marketing; GSP Retaliation; Limits on Trade Growth; IT Fight
Communist Marketing Russian Federal Customs Service official Rusian Davydov says he wants to extend the 2014 food embargo restriction to include meat and o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 February-1 March 2019 Domestic grain prices moved in different directions or remained stable, depending on the region. Export pri...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.725/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again as Feed Demand Continues to Drop Despite a decline in soybean imports, China’s soymeal inventories continue t...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were soft overnight with corn, wheat and soybeans trading slightly below Tuesday’s close. Trading volume was quite low. The day...
Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss
Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferenc...
E15; Biodiesel Duties; The Debt Limit
E15 and SREs Yesterday the EPA submitted its proposal for year-round E15 use to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for sign-off. As noted here...
Soybean Sector Needs New Driver of Global Demand Growth
The main driver of both soybean import demand and soymeal consumption since 2000/01 has been China. Because of the recent trade dispute with the U.S. and o...
A Potential U.S.-China Trade Deal
Sources in the Trump administration and the press indicate that a new trade agreement with China is nearly complete. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7575/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6275/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS In Yemen, a U.N. World Food Program team is said to have reached the grain silos near Hodeida. It repor...
House Agriculture Committee Weighs in on FY 2020 Federal Budget
The FY 2020 budget process in Congress has begun. Under the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (Section 301(d)), each of the congressional authorizing commit...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were higher in the Sunday evening session with wheat steady, and that is the way the market opened this morning as well. There was...
Transatlantic Jostling; USMCA Campaign; Rebalancing Global Contributions
Transatlantic Jostling The Trump administration’s move to tighten sanctions on Cuba concurrently is aimed at Europe. U.S. National Security Advisor J...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Last week was a strange one for the market. President Trump had threatened to raise duties on imports from China if there was no r...
Smile! Corn and Wheat Bullish, Cattle Rally May be Limited
Corn and wheat options are bullishly positioned following last week’s news of a potential $50-billion agreement between the U.S. and China. Soybean t...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7475/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.555/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&n...
New Crop Revenue Insurance Prices Might Affect Plantings
The initial (and minimum) price guarantees for the crop revenue insurance program, which represent the daily average of the new crop futures during the mon...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week as it followed the decline of the EU and U.S. markets. Russia is exporting about 500 KMT pe...
Trade War to Worsen; USMCA Optimism; U.S.-EU Pessimism
Trade War to Worsen Uncertainty around trade has been a burden to the U.S. economy, especially to farmers, and yet more trouble appears to be coming. Follo...
Market Commentary
Corn was steady, soybeans were higher, and wheat was lower overnight in light trading volume. Everything was then lower after the first hour of the day ses...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.73/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5725/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nb...
It’s All about Exports
There has been much consternation about the pace of U.S. export sales and shipments for the current marketing year. Interestingly, corn and wheat prices ha...
E15; Biodiesel Credit; Tariff Checks and Balances
There’s been a spate of activity on Capitol Hill of late on some high-profile ag policy issues. Below is an end-of-the week recap. E15 Waiver In test...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were mixed overnight with wheat trying to rally (again), soybeans a bit weaker and corn stuck in between. Trading volume was not impr...
Farm Subsidy Rulings; Bypassing Congress; Food Contradictions
Farm Subsidy Rulings A WTO dispute settlement panel concluded that China violated its obligations by excessively subsidizing wheat and rice production. Rea...
Cattle Expansion Nearing Peak
USDA released its Cattle Inventory report today, approximately a month late due to the government shutdown. This follows last Friday’s delayed releas...
More Tales from Export Sales
With the release this morning of the USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 21 February, these reports are back to their regular schedule for the...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales, Sinograin Reserve Sales; Canada’s Soy Sales; French Biodiesel Strike
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s release of the USDA weekly export sales report for the week ending 21 February indicated unexpectedly large...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&n...
Ag Review - February 2019
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outl...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 476,400 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for Indonesia (170,000 MT), the Philippines (74,10...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures prices were fractionally firmer overnight, while wheat prices sought to recover at least a sliver of their February losses. Chicag...
Anti-Competition; Wrong Places; Tariff Impacts Quantified
Anti-Competition The U.S. dairy industry complains that the EU’s effort to codify geographic indicator (GI) protection for its various cheese product...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 February 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated insignificantly, but the average milling wheat export price dropped $6/MT to $2...
Summary of Futures
May 19 Corn closed at $3.7375/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6675/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Up Slightly as Downstream Demand Falters While China’s central government lifted quarantine restrictions toward the end of...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw grain and soy prices leak slightly lower following Monday’s big losses. Notable was corn open interest, which fell nearly 69,00...
Low Art of Rhétorique; Rearview Mirror Incentives; Future Policy, Future Elections
Low Art of Rhétorique There is much to parse from French President Emmanuel Macron’s speech to the annual Salon International de l’Agric...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.6625/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close...
Strange Times for Markets
If futures markets were to perform logically all the time, they would not be needed. Furthermore, what seems logical to some may seem completely weird to o...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soy Purchases and Demand; North Korea and Food Aid; U.S. Soymeal Exports
Making Sense of China’s Soy Purchases and Demand Last Friday USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said China’s vice premier had committed that country t...
EIA Aims to Improve Biofuel Data to Reflect the Current Market, Especially Diesel
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has proposed revamping its data collection surveys and reporting process on fuel supplies, production, dis...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat export tender of last week has reportedly received a poor response. It was said...
Fear Your Food; Playing the Donald; Playing Europe
Fear Your Food The “fear your food” movement has made its mark when it prompts a rant from the top cabinet officer at USDA’s annual Outlo...
A Shot in the Dark
As it always does, USDA used its Annual Outlook Forum last week in Washington, DC to update its 10-year baseline projections. The trade of course pays the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview After a few weeks of good activity with strong purchases from China, the markets were very quiet last week as the U.S.-China trade...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.705/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.7275/bushel, down $0.19 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary
More positive news during the weekend regarding the prospects for an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade conflict buoyed the soybean complex both last ni...
Smile! Watch the Wheat and Cattle Markets Carefully
The SRW wheat and live cattle options markets are showing unusual patterns that suggests these markets should be watched carefully. The corn market remains...
Farm Economy and China Trade
USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue will testify before the House Agriculture Committee on 27 February regarding the state of the farm economy. With trade tensions...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on Janua...
Market Commentary
In a day full of new fundamental data, it was policy expectations that ruled the CBOT. Corn and soybean futures were mixed and largely lackluster in today&...
End is Near; Laborious Labor; Define Mal Bouffe
End is Near President Trump’s trade war may or may not eventually bring larger economic gains, but its near-term costs are being tallied. U.S. farmer...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 19 Wheat closed at $4.9175/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&...
Economy and Trade Policy Impacts on Commodities
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the price received by producers when they sell their output, fell for the second consecutive month in Januar...
A Beef with the Numbers
USDA lowered its estimates for production, imports and exports of beef, which fits with the narrative of a commodity facing threats all around. Every day t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills we...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 3,574,800 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for Nigeria (444,400 MT, including 24,000 MT swi...
Market Commentary
USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum opened its two-day run this morning. “Growing Locally, Selling Globally” is the 2019 theme. USDA...
Livestock and Feed Projections; China Update
Livestock and Feed Projections USDA’s 95th Agricultural Outlook Forum kicked off today in Washington, DC, which is the official rollout of its 10-yea...
Indo-American Trade War; Sino-American Impacts; Cars and Soybeans
Indo-American Trade War Unlike many other governments, New Delhi had been holding off on counterretaliation against the Trump administration’s Sectio...
The U.S.-Chinese Trade Sprint
As has been widely reported, U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting in Washington this week to push toward some sort of agreement on trade before t...
Oilseed Highlights: China and DDGS; Enlist E3 Soybeans; Soybean Plantings; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Trade Deal May Reopen Chinese Market for DDGS U.S. and Chinese negotiators met again today in Washington in an effort to reach an agreement that ends the o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.755/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $4.865/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary
Today’s markets faced a number of crosscurrents. Besides spreading in China, African swine fever (ASF) has appeared in Vietnam and could well spread...
Carousel Redux; Definitional Stalemate; Sustainably Anti-Corporate
Carousel Redux Frustrated that the $3 billion in counter-retaliatory duties it imposed on U.S. products has failed to change the Section 232 duties imposed...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 February 2019 Domestic grain prices either moved in mixed directions or remained stable. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7075/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Lower Food Prices Push Inflation Down in January With China’s major holiday occurring just around the corner in February, the country ty...
Market Commentary
Following the holiday, grain and soy markets began the overnight session just a bit firmer. That lasted until some selling pressure emerged in wheat, which...
Ethanol Outlook
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week. Those projections offer a glimmer o...
Oilseed Highlights: Indonesia’s Biodiesel; Michigan Soy Processor; China’s Aquaculture; Brazilian Soy
Indonesian President Promises to Move to B-100 if Reelected Indonesian President Joko Widodo said in a debate that if reelected, he wants to move from requ...
Trade Winds Blowing
Despite being shortened by the Presidents Day holiday, this should be an interesting week with another “data dump” featured on 22 February. Fir...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.6975/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $4.8975/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&n...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Desert locust outbreaks in Saudi Arabia and Egypt are a concern for crops. Much rainfall and strong win...
China Naysayers; Liberalization Woke
China Naysayers As Washington and Beijing work toward completing a trade deal, it is clear that not all the U.S. objectives will be accomplished to the sat...
USDA Receives Funding and Congressional Directives
Today the president signed the appropriations bill that will cover the remainder of FY 2019 (through 30 September). The package was passed yesterday in the...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were just slightly firmer overnight with wheat slightly lower following yesterday’s fund-related sell-off. Today then saw co...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7475/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.0425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report, which contained small totals for corn, wheat and soybeans along with sales cancellations of the latter to...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean producti...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade was limited in volume and price movement. Wheat was slightly weaker, while corn and soybeans hung around Wednesday’s closes...
Summer Supply Destruction; Bilking Consumers; Chinese Gambling; Beef with Beef
Summer Supply Destruction The nomination of Andrew Wheeler to become the EPA administrator is being held hostage by a bipartisan and powerful group of sena...
Volume and Value of Beef and Pork
U.S. beef exports hit record levels in 2018. However, tariffs reduced pork shipments, driving down values. These global demand dynamics are reflected in th...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentine Soy Crop; U.S. Soy Plantings; Brazil and Crop Insurance; China’s Ag Focus
U.S. Soy Export Sales Anyone who expected today’s USDA export sales report for the week ending 3 January to be positive for the soybean sector had to...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 131,200 metric tons for 2018/2019--marketing-year low--were down 78 percent from the previous week and 76 percent from the prior...
The Checkered Use of Tariffs
President Donald Trump, a self-declared “Tariff Man,” has made the threat and use of tariffs one of the chief operating mechanisms of his admin...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7475/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.07/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate toda...
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not; Politicizing EFSA
U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not Newly-elected Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is a lean-right populist in the Donald Trump vein. This gives the two leaders a sense...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 February 2019 Domestic grain prices all increased except for a few that remained stable. However, the average milling wheat expo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Market Trends A Tale of Two Years With the shutdown of the U.S. government over (at least temporarily), its official statistics are now available to the ge...
Finnish Supply Destruction; Slaying the Nonsense; “Other” Wins/Worst Idea
Finnish Supply Destruction Commodity supply and demand forecasts almost uniformly forecast too much of the former and not enough of the latter. A similar s...
Market Commentary
Markets are focused on two things – the trade talks this week in Beijing and the threat of another partial U.S. government shutdown on Saturday. Toda...
Budget Deal Near: Will It Include Bidiesel Tax Credit and Disaster Assistance?
After a reported breakdown in the budget talks, the lead congressional negotiators met three times on Monday and finally reached what is being called an &l...
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look
If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAS/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Cairo3a Poultry, a major company in grain trading and poultry production with other intere...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Soy Sector
Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private an...
Friday Deadline Looms for Budget and Border Deal
The Sunday political talk shows painted a dim picture of the ongoing budget discussions between Congress and the administration. Appearing on one of them,...
Leverage Causes Angst
Difficult negotiations go to the brink for a reason, and that dynamic is being revealed on numerous fronts. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting...
Still Too Much Uncertainty
The series of important and delayed USDA reports that were released last Friday did take some of the uncertainty away from the markets. The problem, though...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Update The market was very quiet last week in Brazil, and movement was focused in the U.S. with the Chinese government purchasing another 5...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic market was about 200 rubles ($3)/MT higher. Its exports are...
House Ag Committee Agenda
The House Agriculture Committee met yesterday for its organizational meeting. Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minnesota) laid out its agenda for the 116th Cong...
Mixed USMCA Signals; Rotten Tomatoes
Mixed USMCA Signals Congressional Democrats are signaling both positively and negatively on the prospects for approval of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally better overnight and this morning following Thursday’s pre-USDA report sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were primarily the r...
USDA Reports Simply More of the Same
All had been hoping that the long-awaited USDA reports released today (originally scheduled for publication on 11 January) would reveal new insight, create...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7425/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...
WASDE Soyoil
According to USDA: U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is estimated at 134.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from the previous report. Smaller soybean...
WASDE Soymeal
According to USDA: The soybean crush forecast is raised 10 million bushels to 2,090 million. Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush...
WASDE Soybeans
According to USDA: Soybean production is estimated at 4,544 million bushels, down 56 million. Harvested area is estimated at 88.1 million acres, down...
WASDE Corn
According to USDA: U.S. corn production is estimated at 14.420 billion bushels, down 206 million on reduction in yield to 176.4 bushels per acre. Harvested...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 201...
WASDE Wheat
According to USDA: Projected 2018/19 wheat ending stocks are raised 36 million bushels on reduced feed and residual use and lower seed use. Feed and...
Market Commentary
After doing next to nothing for the first three trading days this week while awaiting tomorrow’s USDA reports, traders finally made a move today, and...
Summary of Prices
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.765/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1325/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; Bayer Rapeseed; U.S. Biodiesel; Indian Protein
U.S. Soy Export Sales Update USDA announced yesterday that exporters had sold an additional 586,000 MT of soybeans to China with all but 63,000 MT to be sh...
Uneven Distribution; Pain Ahead
Uneven Distribution U.S. Farm Belt bankruptcies have reportedly reached a 10-year high as banks show their displeasure with producer balance sheets hammere...
Questions and Comments
Having been without significant scheduled data from USDA since 11 December because of the “lapse of funding” (as USDA politely puts it), it is...
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China; U.S. Meat Exports to Japan; Data Catch-Up; Farm Income and Expenses
Classical Swine Fever in Japan/ASF in China Cases of classical swine fever (CSF), also known as hog cholrea, have been detected in five prefectures in Japa...
Export Sales
This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period December 21-27, 2018. Wheat: Net sales of 593,000 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 15...
Market Commentary
Agriculture played only a minor role in President Trump’s State of the Union speech last night. He cited the ongoing negotiations with China as an ex...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 January-1 February 2019 Domestic grain prices continued to increase with the exception of a few that remained steady. The slower...
Fruitless Wait for Trump
In a classic article covering viewpoints from various European officials toward U.S. President Donald Trump, Washington Post reporters Dan Balz and Griff W...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Cultural The Year of the Pig is Here This week was the kickoff of China’s largest and longest national holiday of the year, the Spring Festival (also...
Market Commentary
Events have conspired to make the reports being released 8 February among the most anticipated in quite some time. The fact that all of them, except the Fe...
The Brazilian Real and U.S. Monetary Policy
The Fed did not raise the federal funds rate at its January meeting. Instead, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell said the Federal Open Market Com...
Musings about Chinese Trade
This morning USDA announced a sale of 2.603 MMT of soybeans to China for 2018/19, part of the second tranche of 5 MMT that Chinese Vice-Premier Liu promise...
Varied Opinions on China; Varied Opinions on Trade Wars; China is Different
Varied Opinions on China The U.S.-invoked trade war with China is entering a critical period, and both its rationale and outcome are widely debated. Presid...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy Crop Forecast and Meal Exports; China’s U.S. Soybean Purchase; Canadian Canola
Widely Varying Forecasts for Brazilian Soybean Crop With China resuming its purchases of U.S. soybeans for at least a while, the soybean market’s foc...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s fertile Nile Delta is reportedly suffering from lower water levels in the Nile River, the...
Two-Front Trade War; Shutdown and Who in 2020
Two-Front Trade War President Trump is likely to highlight trade in his State of the Union address on Tuesday evening. He needs Congress to pass his USMCA,...
Brazil’s Shrinking Soybean Crop
Temperatures across most of Brazil’s major production regions soared late last week into the upper 90s°F. The producer there referenced in the 28...
EPA Focus on RFS Rules
With the federal government now fully reopened (at least until 15 February) and the EPA likely to soon have a full-time administrator (the Senate Environme...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn market calmed down last week after seeing big movement the previous week. The main reason that only March shipments are moving...
Market Commentary
The grain and oilseed markets were quiet overnight and again today. Volume was light in corn and soybeans but better than average in wheat. The markets wil...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7925/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea FOB market remained about unchanged last week, while the domestic market in Russia was reportedly $2-4 higher. Weather conditio...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&nb...
USMCA Legislative Changes Identified; Biodiesel Credit and the Appropriations Bill
USMCA Legislative Changes Identified This week the administration presented to Congress a Statement of Administrative Action (SAA), which is its legal view...
President Soybean; Unjolly Roger; Worse Sectors than Agriculture
President Soybean Chinese and European leaders know where President Donald Trump’s soft spot resides, and it is soybeans. During bilateral trade nego...
Market Commentary
Agricultural and equity markets were all about China trade deal optimism today. President Trump was very busy tweeting very positive news about the situati...
The Only Thing Worse than No News is Old News
Markets have been struggling since the partial government shutdown started due to the lack of any fundamental news that is typically gathered/released by U...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Poultry Sector Suffering Severe Losses; Imported Chicken Cheaper As a follow-up to the issue of rising feed prices that was discussed in the 11 January rep...
Market Commentary
Please note: Late word from the White House meeting between the Chinese trade delegation and President Trump indicates that delegation leader Vice-Premier...
Owning the Deal; Contrasted India Approach; Twain Won’t Meet
Owning the Deal In usual trade negotiations, a U.S. president’s subordinates negotiate, and when there is agreement, it is brought to the leader for...
Extreme Weather Impact; Market Data
Extreme Weather Impact The polar vortex and extreme cold conditions have settled across much of the livestock, poultry and dairy producing regions of the U...
Balls in the Air
Grain and soy futures markets are currently juggling a number of important “balls in the air.” One might say this is always true, and it is. Ou...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; China Soy Imports; Argentine Biodiesel; Russia-Brazil Soy Trade; South American Soy Crops
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights – Finally Today USDA issued its first export sales report in over a month, but only the week ending 20 December was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.765/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Cattle form Technical Top, Grains Lower with Nothing Better To Do
Both the CME and CBOT closed in the red today, though selling at the CME (particularly the livestock contracts) was far more aggressive. Cattle futures are...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 526,300 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 68 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.&nb...
Market Commentary
The government shutdown and suspension of USDA/FAS export sales reports occurred at a time when U.S. corn and wheat export prices were becoming increasingl...
Pickpocket Economics; Livestock Challenges; Remove the Hurdle; Olive Drab
Pickpocket Economics Some U.S. farm groups are clamoring for more subsidies from U.S. taxpayers, but they are likely to get a less favorable reaction from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 January 2019 Most domestic grain prices continued to grow as demand increased. Milling wheat prices also rose because processo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Stocks Higher on Fed News, Commodities Shrug
The CBOT reversed yesterday’s move lower with some buying support being uncovered today. Today’s higher close was somewhat unconvincing, howeve...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Reduced U.S. Imports and ASF Push Crushers to Cut Activity The temporary lull in the trade war has done little to restore U.S.-China soybean trade...
Market Commentary
Note: The CFTC will resume its Commitment of Traders (COT) reports this Friday with release of the 28 December report. Thereafter, it will issue reports ch...
Big Picture Economics; State of the Onion
Big Picture Economics The trade war started by President Trump does not deserve all the blame, although it certainly has not helped the world economy. Howe...
USDA Reports and Chinese Pork Demand
Now that USDA has reopened, its reports will resume. The next WASDE report on 8 February will likely include information that would have been contained in...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybean Demand; EU Approves U.S. Soy; Global Feed; U.S. Soy Inspections
Brazil’s Soybean Demand in CY 2018 Last week Oil World published soybean usage data for Brazil in CY 2018, which showed it consumed or exported more...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1325/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...
Corn versus Soybeans in Uncertain Times
In just a few days, the calendar will turn to February. This is the time when U.S. row crop farmers begin to get serious about spring planting intentions...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Commercial Buying, Fund Selling Leaves Market Lower
Lack of fundamental news, except better weather for Brazil, left the CBOT to head lower in lackluster trading. Fund selling was notable, especially in whea...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s GASC has announced that future wheat tenders will be paid by letters of credit on sight t...
Forest for Trees; End of EU Ag; Elitist Lifestyle Prescriptions
Forest for the Trees Malaysia is threatening to block imports from the EU due to Brussels’ decision to restrict palm oil’s eligibility under th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7975/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The soybean market came alive again last week, which was more than welcome after several slow months. Chinese firms were buying some positi...
Smile! Corn, Wheat Bullish; Cattle and Soybean Outlook Mixed
Options traders remain neutral/bullish corn while retaining their decidedly bullish sentiments about wheat. Soybeans’ options IV curve retains its ne...
Market Commentary
Many were hopeful that last Friday’s actions to reopen the U.S. government plus some optimism that this week’s meeting with China will go well...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The partial U.S. government shutdown has come to a temporary end. The country might find itself in the same situation again in just three weeks if Congress...
Ethanol Outlook
For the first three weeks of 2019, ethanol production dropped to 1.027 million barrels/day from 1.046 million barrels/day for Q4 2018 and was well below ye...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was very firm last week. Domestic prices in Russia were reported to be $5-8 higher/MT than the previous week. There were...
USG – Next Steps; Trump’s Art is Variable; Science Winning
USG – Next Steps President Trump blinked in the face of a record-long government shutdown, and it is for the better. As we noted more than a week ago...
Temporary Government Reopening; Final Republican Roster on Ag Committee
A short-term deal has been reached to reopen the government until 15 February with a “clean” continuing resolution that contains no funding for...
Market Commentary
Markets didn’t do very much overnight in light volume. Corn and soybean futures were a penny higher with wheat down 1-2 cents. Markets then opened th...
Government Shutdown Update
Based on optimism that the partial shutdown of the U.S. government might be nearing an end, U.S. financial markets were strong in pre-market trade and open...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8025/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of su...
Market Commentary
CME grain and soy futures struggled to find volume and price direction amid the continued lack of inputs from USDA and with little else to lead them. Tradi...
Nutrition Guidelines; State Meat Labeling
Canadian Nutrition Guidelines and the DGA In the U.S., USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are responsible for the update of the Die...
Upstaging Agriculture; Future of Ag
Upstaging Agriculture Just as the Trump administration has a unique penchant for bilateral trade agreements, believing they provide the U.S. with greater l...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazilian Soy Crop Forecasts; Lower U.S. Soy Plantings; Global Soybean Stocks
Brazilian States' Reduced Soy Crop Forecasts The government of the Brazilian state of Parana today forecast its 2019 soybean crop at 16.8 MMT, down from it...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.77/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.215/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Guessing Games
With fresh USDA data on crop production, quarterly stocks, winter wheat acreage, export sales and changes to supply/demand analyses all suspended by the go...
Market Commentary
It is always difficult to trade grain and soy futures based on politics and political rhetoric, and this truism is proving itself once again. Markets were...
U.S.-Japan Prospects; Hope Needed by the Masses; New Food, New Problems
U.S.-Japan Prospects Donald Trump is reviled for his efforts at brinksmanship. He is called a fascist and a bully. The approach is fairly common but more d...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 January 2019 All domestic grain increased in both RUB and USD expression. The average milling wheat export price rose $3/MT to...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomic Trends China’s Economic Slowdown Hits Food and Agricultural Sectors After increases in the cost of food exceeded 3 percent during Septe...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7875/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Feeder Cattle Turnaround with Wheat and Soy Higher
The CBOT was higher in moderate volume trading today with the soy complex finding fundamental support from a few sources and wheat managing to move higher...
Market Commentary
It is now well into the second month of the partial government shutdown, and the blackout of the usual information from USDA continues. The only regular re...
Shutdown Informs USMCA; Shutdown Endgame; Transatlantic War Footing
Shutdown Informs USMCA The current U.S. government shutdown not only delays the U.S. International Trade Commission’s analysis of the U.S.-Mexico-Can...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybeans to China; Korea’s Protein Meal Imports; Pakistani Soy Imports; SA Weather
Stepped-Up U.S. Soybean Exports to China Today’s USDA export inspections report indicated 416,409 MT of U.S. soybeans were inspected for shipment to...
China and the U.S. Soybean Market
A high-level Chinese delegation is due to arrive in Washington, DC next week to engage in trade dispute negotiations that are scheduled to begin on 31 Janu...
Federal Reserve Report on Economic Conditions in the Regional Ag Sectors
The Federal Reserve Banks issued the first Beige Book for 2019 on 16 January. The report is published eight times per year (the previous release was on 5 D...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Higher Open Bleeds Into Lower Close
The CBOT was volatile (relative to recent history, at least) today, with futures stronger at the open amid hopes of progress from U.S.-Sino trade talks. Ru...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Last Thursday Egypt reopened the five ports that had been closed the previous Sunday because of weather...
Martin Luther King Day
Monday, 21 January is a U.S. holiday. The markets and World Perspectives, Inc. are closed that day. Please note that the next issue of Ag Perspectives...
Trade Policy Wowzas; Weighing Risks; Monopoly Hunters
Trade Policy Wowzas It is a long weekend for the commodity futures market, and policymakers have left a bevy of developments to think about, including the...
House Ag Committee Majority Members
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) has announced the new Democratic members of the House Agriculture Committee (see below). First, though, there was...
U.S. Corn Ending Supplies Will Be Smaller
As said every year at this time when we take a very preliminary look at the corn outlook for the coming marketing year, it will be all about yield. The U.S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. M...
Market Commentary
Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of th...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses an...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least thro...
Missing Reports; Climate and Cattle; Happy Chicken Wing Day
Cattle on Feed Report is MIA USDA’s Cattle on Feed (COF) report is normally released on the third Friday of each month. The inventory data is for the...
South American Soybeans and Weather
In these days of the USDA blackout, the soybean market is left to focus on the prospects from U.S. China trade negotiations and South American weather. Of...
Government Shutdown Options; Trade Policy Delays; Weather and When
Government Shutdown Options Using federal employees as ransom in a White House/congressional fight over a very small federal spending program (border secur...
Oilseed Highlights: Malaysian Biodiesel; Soymeal and DDGS; Argentine Soy Crushers; Pakistan and Cargill
Malaysia to Double Use of Palm-Based Biodiesel The glut and low prices of palm oil have caused the government of Malaysia to double the blending requiremen...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. M...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: CBOT Starts Slow, Scrambles to Exciting Finish
Morning price action at the CBOT was firm but mostly boring. That all changed around midday, however, as rumors of export sales, combined with headlines th...
Market Commentary
The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) w...
Diluted Brinksmanship; Dems Pick Trade Leader; Polite or Duplicitous; Glyphocide
Diluted Brinksmanship Politicians do not usually make unpleasant decisions until and unless they are forced into a corner. That is the whole point of brink...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-11 January 2019 All domestic grain prices (except for milling rye) rose in RUB expression, but the growth in USD expression was si...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.74/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Hogs Crash and Burn, Cattle Rally
CBOT prices were higher today after yesterday’s selloff. There was little fundamental reason for the move, except that traders must have sold what th...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Sharp Correction in Soymeal Inventory With China’s soybean imports down sharply last month versus December 2017, the nationwide estimated so...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This diffi...
Pick Your Messenger; Markets Judges are (Flawed) People Too; Betrayals All Around; Common Transatlantic Problems
Pick Your Messenger President Trump assured farmers attending the American Farm Bureau annual meeting that the negotiations with China are going great and...
EPA Administrator Confirmation Hearing and Biofuel Outlook
The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW) will hold a confirmation hearing tomorrow for Andrew Wheeler, nominated last week by President Trum...
Brainstorming without USDA
It takes something like the current partial shutdown of the U.S. government to make those involved with agricultural markets realize how much we depend on...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.11/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Corn Breaks Important Technical Mark
Corn and soybeans plunged today on news from USTR Lighthizer that the U.S. and China made little progress on trade talks. The market had previously been en...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean Inspections; China’s Soybean Imports; South American Weather; NOPA Crush
Higher Soybean Inspections Last Week but Not Many for China Yesterday’s USDA export inspections report indicated 1,085,251 MT of soybeans were inspec...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong win...
Manipulated Eats; Manipulated Trade Debate
Manipulated Eats The year ahead will be packed with various campaigns trying to change the human food consumption pattern. They will be funded by environme...
House Ag Committee Changes Not Yet Settled
The new House Democratic majority is in the process of making committee assignments, and the new chairmen are outlining their panels’ agendas. Howeve...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean futures were lower overnight, and they stuck to that pattern through the day with soybeans opening with steeper losses. Meanwhile, corn w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1425/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&n...
Bearish Soybean Outlook for MY 2019/20
.S. soybean supplies at the end of MY 2019/20 could exceed a record 1 billion bushels. However, the following factors could change that outlook: A steep r...
Smile! Options Market Reflects Bullish Corn Sentiment
Today’s trading in corn futures and options reflects the increasingly bullish sentiments held by traders. Similarly, despite wheat futures’ rec...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The soybean market remains slow. With China very quiet and Brazil currently cheaper than U.S. Gulf, basis continues to fall. The only movem...
What’s Working and What Isn’t at USDA
The federal government shutdown is now in day 21, matching the record set in 1995-1996 when the House in the 104th Congress was controlled by Republicans a...
Dark, Happy Winter Thoughts
The U.S. government is headed into a record-long shutdown with no end in sight. Americans are fractured politically. There is even talk of civil war on soc...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary
Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexp...
Lower U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks Again in 2019/20
One of the major USDA reports that were supposed to be issued today was the U.S. winter wheat planting estimate. WPI’s own estimate that was discusse...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user indu...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the...
Odd Man Up; Antibiotic Correlations; Half-Truths; Supplying the World
Odd Man Up Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is chairman of the powerful U.S. Senate Finance Committee and is at once mainstream and unpredictable. He has said he di...
Animal Disease; Animal Welfare Preemption; Cell-Cultured Meat
Animal Disease It’s back! After the hog market was disrupted in 2014/15 by the spread of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv), a new case has been...
Bullish Markets Until ……?
Grain and soy futures markets were mostly mired in a pit of bearish mud for the last half of 2018. Years of big U.S. and world crops had resulted in a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7625/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Lack of Chinese Details Pressures Markets
Sharp selling emerged at the CBOT today in response to weaker overnight prices. Cash prices for soybeans and corn have weakened in response to farmer selli...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-...
Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal; Globalization’s Future
Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal It comes with downsides, but U.S. agriculture continues to be highlighted in a manner that would have been unheard of a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.82/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Shorts Reverse Course
Yesterday’s price pressure and commensurate rise in open interest suggested a fair number of new short positions were initiated. Today, however, posi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Please note that today’s report is abbreviated because of the holidays. Kazakhstan: 11.5 MMT of Grain Transported by Kazakhstan Temir Zholy in...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reaches 20-Week High With market data limited last week due to the New Year holiday, there was a lag in reporting. During the tw...
Market Commentary
For now, grain and soy markets are mainly about the ongoing trade talks with China, its purchases of soybeans and possibly grain, and South American weathe...