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China In-Country Analysis

Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt an...

Market Commentary

The U.S. trade delegation is a meeting with its Chinese counterpart in Beijing today, and what have become the usual optimistic noises from both sides are...

Congress’s Ag To-Do List

Congress is back in session today after a two-week recess for Easter and Passover, and the four weeks until the Memorial Day recess will be crucial for som...

Worrisome Weather Delays Planting

The first six weeks of spring have been unusually cold and wet for most of the central U.S. Drenching rains together with the melting of an unusually deep...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.625/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Turkey says it will be a “key player in global grain” with plans to greatly expand storage/...

Market Commentary

The Sunday night session was quiet with corn higher while wheat and soybeans were slightly lower. That trading pattern didn’t change today. Corn was...

Russia Meat Subsidy; Secondary Effects

Russia Meat Subsidy The Russian government will reportedly allocate $6.5 billion for “soft” export-oriented investment loans to the meat indust...

Lower Prices and Weather Will Reduce U.S. Spring Wheat Acres

Cash prices for hard red spring wheat across the Dakotas and western Minnesota continue to press lower, and they are now down to $4.25-4.50/bushel for 14 p...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s economic situation is growing more complex every day. Both external and internal factors (infla...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6175/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.3525/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&n...

Trade Economics and GDP

U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 3.2 percent, according to the initial report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) last...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained under pressure last week in sympathy with the EU and U.S. markets. With its export surplus almost entirely gone...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.6125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.425/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  J...

Market Commentary

The beat goes on (just more slowly). Corn and wheat prices were slightly higher overnight with soybeans slightly lower. That’s how the market opened...

Hill Jam; SOE Definition; Sweet Data

Hill Jam Researchers at the University of Warwick in the UK affirm the work of other economists in finding that the imposition of tariffs harms both the fo...

Bearish Attitudes Will Be Tough to Change

The continuing decline in wheat, corn and soybean prices is good news for the world’s consumers, but it is very bad news for the world’s produc...

An IPO-Level Look at the Veggie Burger Sector

Beyond Meat, the maker of a vegetable protein meat alternative product, is preparing for an IPO. It will be offering 8.75 million shares at $19-21, which w...

Market Commentary

Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s close...

Final 2018 Red Meat Production; China Update; NYC Meat Reduction

Final 2018 Red Meat Production USDA released the final tally of 2018 red meat production yesterday. Beef and pork production were individually 103 percent...

The Good and the Bad

It has been said that commodities futures markets are zero-sum games, that someone’s gains are always offset by someone else’s losses. Whereas...

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.5725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...

Ag Review - April 2019

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soybean industry and U.S. meat/livestock industry, and an assessm...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 425,300 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 34 percent from the previous week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-...

Market Commentary

Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 April 2019 While grain prices on the domestic market mostly dropped in RUB expression, they grew slightly in USD expression du...

Tri-Rift; Labor Waves

Tri-Rift President Donald Trump has ripped apart the trilateral EU-Japan-U.S. policy consortium and looks to increasingly target Europe with his bitterness...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.4675/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.385/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&n...

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends March Economic Data Points to Effects of Stimulus and ASF In response to a sharp economic slowdown and the ongoing impact of the trade war wit...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices chopped slightly around either side of unchanged in overnight trade, giving rise to thoughts that those markets might be able to muste...

Ethanol Growth Faces Mixed Bag of RFS Regulations

According to data released late last week, the EPA has granted one additional small refinery exemption (SRE) for 2017 and received three more SRE requests...

Transparency’s Cost to Innovation

There is widespread support in Europe for the new revisions to the General Food Law, but research may prove the risk that the critics have warned about. Un...

Agricultural Funds and ETFs

The theory that commodities were a useful tool for anyone seeking to diversify an investment portfolio gained considerable popularity in the early years of...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.5125/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS  As of 15 April, Egypt had bought approximately 365,000 MT of local wheat against its purchase tar...

Market Commentary

Grain and oilseed markets came back from the long Easter holiday weekend in a slightly bearish mode overnight and today with wheat the weakest. Weather for...

Polarized WTO; Nonautomatic Market Economy; Free Trade Diversion

Polarized WTO It is not just politics in the U.S. and Europe that are polarized – so is the global trading system. India plans to host developing cou...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.5475/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $4.4175/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close...

Latest Summer Weather Maps

NOAA updates its long-term weather forecasts near the end of each month, and the April updates were released late last week. There have been some concerns...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The soybean market was very slow last week as it was shortened by the Easter-related holiday. It was even slower today as Monday i...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week in the absence of fresh demand. Consumers in the major destinations are more or less covered until...

Cattle on Feed at Record Level for April

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report for 1 April on Thursday, which was a day early because of the Good Friday holiday. The mostly neutral...

Good Friday

The markets are closed tomorrow, 19 April 2019 in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed that day, and the next Ag Pers...

Market Commentary

Note: CME grain and soy markets are closed tomorrow (Friday) and will re-open Easter Sunday evening. U.S. government offices will be open tomorrow, however...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 317,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 28 percent from the prior 4...

Cherry-Pick USMCA; PRC TKO; FAANG Attack

Cherry-Pick USMCA The economic analysis of the U.S.-Mexica-Canada Agreement (USMCA) by the U.S. International Trade Administration was released today and g...

Cattle on Feed

April 1 2019 Cattle on Feed totaled 12.0 million head; 2 percent above April 1, 2018. This is the highest April 1 inventory since the series began in 1996...

The 2017 Census of Agriculture

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) conducts a census of U.S. production agricultural every five years. The most recent one, comp...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.585/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.4425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&n...

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Chinese Soy Demand

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report for the week ending 11 April indicated U.S. soybean sales were up from the previous...

Cattle on Feed Pre-Report

With the Good Friday holiday tomorrow, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report, detailing the number on feed as of 1 April, today after the mar...

Market Commentary

After yesterday’s lashing, the grain and soy futures markets tried to rally during the overnight session. Corn and soybeans gained a few cents, and w...

The Outsized Burden; Handbag Solution

The Outsized Burden Cuba is a small island country that imposes an outsized burden on U.S. politics, but this is declining. Historically, there were two pr...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 April 2019 Domestic prices fluctuated in the South and Volga Valley but mostly decreased in other regions. The average milling...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.5825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.47/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...

What do February’s Retail Sales Mean for Agriculture?

The consumer is often said to be the backbone of the U.S. economy, and that looks to be a positive factor for the food and agricultural sectors. The U.S. C...

Market Commentary

For the second day of this holiday-shortened week, the overnight session produced minor losses for grain and the soy complex amid extremely light trading v...

Two Ships Passing; Greening Up or Green Wash?; Whitewash

Two Ships Passing Yesterday EU Trade Minister Cecilia Malmström declared that with the new negotiating mandate, she is prepared to sit down immediatel...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.59/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.45/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Things to Consider

China and weather are the topics that have dominated market chatter for the last several weeks, but they have not generated a breakout movement of grain an...

Shrinking Future of the RFS

Sometime in the next six to eight weeks, the EPA will propose the Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2020 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt had rejected a cargo of French wheat due to high ergot levels, but the 63,000 MT were found to be...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview Chinese demand remains very slow. There was some tepid interest for nearby positions, but basis has continued to drop in Argentina...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading had corn and soybean markets higher with wheat markets slightly lower, and the only thing that changed during today’s session was a...

Azevêdo Channels Trump

German Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor Olag Scholz told his audience at the Peterson Institute in Washington that transatlantic partners should not ge...

Chatter About AFS, Chinese Hog Production and Soy

An article from Bloomberg over the weekend (click here) about the potential long-term impact of African swine fever (ASF) on world soybean demand didn&rsqu...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6275/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

U.S.-Japan FTA Goals and Scope

Preliminary negotiations on a new free trade agreement (FTA) between the U.S. and Japan commenced today. Since the U.S. withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Par...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market once again remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic prices are reportedly around $3-4/MT higher. It h...

EIA Forecasts on Biofuels

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) this week. The agency trimmed back both production a...

Asia Perspectives; Pesticidal Suicide

Asia Perspectives President Donald Trump said yesterday that North Korea will remain under sanctions but that he believes an agreement with Pyongyang will...

Market Commentary

Trading volume was light today. Corn and wheat were slightly lower through most of the day, while soybeans traded a penny or two higher for a brief time an...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.61/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  May...

USDA Makes Changes to WASDE Tables

USDA announced this week that it will make some changes (noted below) to the monthly WASDE (supply and demand estimates) starting with the May report. Whil...

Market Commentary

Soybeans and corn were about unchanged in low volume overnight trading, while wheat was up a couple of pennies. The market was waiting for the export sales...

Hog Wild Pork Markets

After a few weeks out of the market, China purchased 77,700 MT of U.S. pork last week. That makes it the number three destination (behind Mexico and Korea)...

Can’t Walk the Talk; Limited Policy Options; On the Other Foot

Can’t Walk the Talk German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World B...

Impossible Burgers and Change

Environmentalists and climate warriors have long targeted agriculture, particularly intensive animal agriculture, as a prime source of greenhouse gases and...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 273,000 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were down 61 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-wee...

Market Commentary

Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more...

Debating Change and AgTech

USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue yesterday called the EU a “technology-free zone” when it comes to agriculture. It is true that Europe’s resis...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 April 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated in RUB expression but decreased in USD expression due to the weaker ruble. The avera...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course as Feed Demand Improves Modest improvements in feed demand last week coupled with a drop in imported soybean sto...

WASDE Soyoil

Soybean oil changes include increased imports and domestic disappearance for biodiesel and for food use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean oil price is proj...

Market Commentary

The April 2019 WASDE was mostly neutral the grains complex but bullish soyoil as USDA’s changes offered few surprises. The CBOT had a weaker tone bef...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA estimates that global oilseed ending stocks are up 1.5 million tons to 123.2 million, largely due to higher soybean stocks for Brazil and rapeseed sto...

Wet Weather Impacting Ethanol

Ethanol producers were already dealing with building inventories, lower blending rates and cheaper crude oil (U.S. crude production was up 17 percent in 20...

WASDE Soybean

USDA estimates that U.S. soybean supply and use changes in the April WASDE include lower imports, higher seed use, and lower ending stocks. With soybean cr...

Flights of Fancy; Notable Approach; Farmer Protests

Flights of Fancy In response to a recent WTO ruling on respective subsidies for Airbus and Boeing aircraft, USTR announced the proposed retaliatory tariffs...

More Straws in the Wind

- Today is WASDE day with USDA’s release of this month’s edition. The April WASDE is normally uneventful with South American crop production le...

WASDE Corn

USDA estimated the 2018/19 outlook for U.S. corn is for lower feed and residual use, reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports, and larger stocks. Fe...

WASDE Wheat

USDA estimates that the outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat is unchanged in the April WASDE. Total 2018/19 feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels t...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  May...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The latest USDA-FAS report on Turkish grains indicates that better rainfall through February 2019 versu...

Beef and Cattle Market Anomalies

There are important anomalies in the cattle and beef markets this year. Futures have shown amazing strength, buoyed largely by export demand. Now as fed ca...

Market Commentary

Grain and oilseeds markets were mixed to start the week in the Sunday night session. Soybeans traded slightly higher through most of the night with corn st...

Recessions and Winner of Sino-American Trade War

A large majority of respondents in WPI’s most recent survey do not expect a global recession by 2020 (see graph below).  Meanwhile, U.S. farmer...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

- It appears that wet weather will continue to cause planting delays across the northern Plains and the Corn Belt. The two maps below show the five-and sev...

Politics of the Biodiesel Tax Credit

With the second quarter of 2019 underway, the House is moving toward a restoration of the biodiesel tax credit (BTC), which expired 31 December 2017. A bil...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview Brazilian basis has been dropping due to lack of Chinese demand. Although board crush margins aren’t bad in China, soymeal a...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6525/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was again about unchanged last week. Russia’s exports have reached approximately 31.5 MMT since the start of the c...

Congressional Budget Process Starts (Sort of)

This past Wednesday the House Budget Committee passed its legislation to amend the budgeting process for the next two years (FY 2020 and FY 2021). The auth...

Difficult Tea Leaves; Policy Shorts

Difficult Tea Leaves President Trump previously laid down a hard 90-day deadline for reaching a trade agreement with China, but now he says one could arriv...

Market Commentary

Markets were weak overnight and more so today as the trade again grew weary of all the positive talk regarding the U.S. China dispute with still no real de...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.625/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6775/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.&n...

Demise of Farmers Greatly Exaggerated

There have been numerous news stories about the expanding financial crises in U.S. agriculture. Many of these stories were instigated by the Trump tariffs...

Market Commentary

It is a waiting game. Agricultural interests of nearly every variety hope that this afternoon’s meeting between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu and Presiden...

Dangerous Electoral Changes

U.S. presidential candidates racing for the Democratic Party nomination are proposing major electoral reforms to strengthen outcomes in their favor. The id...

Are Markets Poised to Move?

For the past two years, grain and soy futures market prices have been knocking about in a series of relatively narrow price ranges. This is not to say that...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6525/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&n...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 704,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 48 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week...

Market Commentary

It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they...

Franco-American Battle; EU Crop Insurance

Franco-American Battle French President Emmanuel Macron is stymieing agreement in Brussels on the EU’s trade negotiating mandate with the U.S. He wan...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Average Live Pig Price Rises Another 3.5 Percent China’s national average live pig price climbed 3.5 percent from the previou...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.71/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 25-29 March 2019 The average grain prices on the domestic market continued to drop in RUB expression for the most part. However, the...

Market Commentary

There was an effort to continue yesterday’s rally overnight. However, enthusiasm faded rather quickly as markets settled into mundane trade with soyb...

Fake Issue Campaign; Trade Policy Suicide

Fake Issue Campaign During the 2016 campaign, candidate Donald Trump manufactured many fake issues such as illegal immigrants causing a crime wave and NAFT...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.615/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Straws in the Wind

Grain and soy complex futures markets are uninspiring these days with the exception of Friday’s reaction to USDA’s stocks and acreage reports...

Possible Paths Forward for Ag Disaster Relief

The Senate is considering a $13.45 billion disaster relief bill for states impacted by natural disasters in 2017 and 2018 as well as the recent flooding in...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Today's Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis report features an abbreviated set of tables due to an illness on the part of our regular c...

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets found small measures of support in the Sunday night session, while wheat was mostly steady. Volume was good overnight, especially...

Ag Lags Economy; Brown Leap Backward

Ag Lags Economy Despite a trade war, a government shutdown, Brexit, declines in factory output and consumer spending plus other worries, the stock market h...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The market was slow last week with Chinese demand focused last Thursday on buying U.S. soybeans for July and August shipment, whic...

U.S. Corn Outlook Turns Bearish

Last Friday USDA provided a much bigger 1 March quarterly stocks estimate for corn than anyone in the trade expected. The number came in at 270 million bus...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6275/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Russia has exported about 31 MMT so far this season, and most analysts are now estim...

Market Commentary

The U.S. farm economy didn’t find any relief on the immediate horizon in today’s USDA acreage and quarterly stocks estimates (see today’s...

USDA Lands One-Two Punch to Corn’s Chin

Today’s USDA planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports landed a tough one-two punch to the corn market. The former indicated that farmers inte...

Illogic on the Border; Wars and Recessions

Illogic on the Border With hundreds of Central American families overwhelming the southern U.S. border each day with asylum pleas, President Donald Trump m...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.565/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&...

Hogs and Pigs Report: No Slowdown in Expansion

The U.S. inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 March totaled 74.3 million head, 102 percent of last year. However, it was down slightly from 74.6 million head on...

Market Commentary

As expected on the day before major USDA reports, overnight trading volume in grain and soy futures was subdued. In price action, soybeans were 2-3 cents h...

Failed Rural Strategy; Government Dis-Org; Climate Protectionism

Failed Rural Strategy Some Democratic Party strategists have reasonably concluded that it is easier to court rural voters than to dissipate their political...

Hog Price “Hockey Stick;” China’s Poultry Imports

Hog Price “Hockey Stick” The impacts of African swine fever (ASF) in China are being felt in the hog market. Last week hog prices rebounded to...

The Other Trade Battle

Ever since the tit-for-tat tariff war between the U.S. and China began last July, the dispute has dominated the trade agenda within the Trump administratio...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.74/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.645/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...

Ag Review - March 2019

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soybean crush and U.S. biofuels industry, and an assessment of ce...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 475,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 were up 59 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week...

Market Commentary

Last night’s session produced a story similar to that told by overnight trade of grain and soy futures for much of the last few weeks – mixed p...

Brexit Irony; Prospective Geopolitical Plantings; Crazy Lady

Brexit Irony The UK remains in a state of dysfunction as politicians attempt to meet the demand of their constituents to leave the EU while understanding t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 March 2019 Prices on the domestic market again declined in RUB expression but moved in different directions in USD expression...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Average Live Pig Price Soared 12 Percent Through Mid-March With all the chaos surrounding African swine fever (ASF), the publishing...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets were quiet with little change in prices overnight. Soybeans were down 1-2 cents, corn was unchanged to fractionally lower, and Chicag...

Does Hemp Have a Role in Livestock Feed?

The 2018 Farm Bill legalized industrial production of hemp and its marketing as well as the marketing of its derivatives in interstate commerce. That, howe...

A Look at Acreage and Quarterly Stocks

Grain and soy markets are dividing their focus between this week’s trade negotiations in Beijing and USDA’s reports on initial planting intenti...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco’s central bank has indicated that the country’s grain production will be down about...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6925/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close...

Flooding Gives Bump to Ethanol, but for How Long?

The weather markets have hit ethanol, providing some welcomed price relief. The flooding in the Corn Belt has interrupted shipping/delivery and given a bum...

Market Commentary

It was another very quiet start to the week overnight with soybeans slightly higher, corn steady and wheat slightly lower. Markets opened steady across the...

Mueller’s Gift; Needed Farm Focus

Mueller’s Gift Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report on the Trump administration and Russian interference in the 2016 election is complete, a...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The soybean market showed some movement for nearby positions last week as the Chinese looked to cover March, April, May and even s...

Weather Markets in March? Maybe

It seems that with so few noteworthy items that move markets these days, we might as well try to generate a weather market. That sounds very hard to do on...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7975/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week as it followed the trend of EU and U.S. markets. Russia’s export pace has slowed to about 300...

1 March Cattle on Feed Report

USDA today released the monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report for 1 March. It showed the total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 1.8 m...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet wea...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.66/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...

Cattle on Feed

USDA estimates:  Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8...

Soybean Refresh

A great deal of proverbial water has passed under the bridge since WPI wrote about our initial soybean outlook for MY 2019/20 on 14 January Not very much h...

Market Commentary

The overnight session continued the recent trend of low trading volume and narrow, mixed price movement. This occurred as traders await developments from n...

Policy Opportunities and Risks

Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its...

Pre-Report Forecasts

The release tomorrow of USDA’s Cattle on Feed report gets the monthly series back on schedule after the government shutdown. It will show the total n...

What Lies Ahead for the Markets?

Grain/soy futures and cash markets have maintained a relatively low price profile for two years or more. Low grain and soy prices have been a major contrib...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7625/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.665/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 298,600 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for South Korea (75,500 MT), Sri Lanka (65,000 MT,...

Market Commentary

It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 March 2019 Domestic grain prices decreased in RUB expression but moved in different directions or remained unchanged in USD ex...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6475/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Export Trends Year-End USDA Data Shows Trade Winners and Losers Following delays caused by the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, USDA has now manage...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead c...

The State of Agtech: Assessing Its Political Risk

One of the darlings of the investment world is the emerging sector of agtech. Investment is flowing to a number of discrete markets and technologies,...

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns; China Hopeful

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns Today’s joint statement by U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had some good news for A...

Chinese Trade Soap Opera and Markets

Having commented so often about U.S.-China trade relations and the ongoing negotiations, we fear we risk boring clients. However, the trade negotiations ar...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.565/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close...

Big Trouble in Big China

Not a WPI client? Please email Matt at mherrington@agrilink.com or subscribe to Ag Perspectives: International or Ag Perspectives: All Acces...

Market Commentary

Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market...

Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts

Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations...

March Corn Update

There have been changes to the 2018/19 corn balance sheet since our first look at the potential supply/demand outlook on 18 January. USDA reduced the expor...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5675/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...

EU-U.S. Tentative Deal on Beef

Even though the EU-U.S. trade agreement talks are not moving apace, largely because of the EU reluctance to include agriculture versus U.S. insistence that...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has reversed the downward trend it had been following since January. The buyers/consumers have certainly appreciated the...

More Small Refinery Exemptions Granted

The EPA announced yesterday that it had granted five additional small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2017, reducing the number of pending petitions in the...

Against the Grain; Bipartisan Horses; China and EU Deals

Against the Grain Demographics are destiny, and with 60 percent of the world’s population and some of its fastest-growing economies, this is supposed...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6225/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on an...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil...

Trump’s China Mystery; The EU Bullseye; SOEs in Focus

Trump’s China Mystery U.S. President Donald’s Trump’s characterization of his negotiations with the Chinese are not adding up unless Xi&r...

Market Commentary

Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pric...

Family Farms versus Big Ag—Again

The next U.S. presidential election occurs in about 20 months, but the campaign season is already well underway. President Donald Trump is more than halfwa...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5275/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 263,000 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for Nigeria (106,300 MT, including 24,000 MT switc...

Market Commentary

NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they ar...

Creative Destruction; Ignoring Economics

Creative Destruction It is often said that it is easier to use government to stop something from happening than to use it to make something happen. Some me...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4-7 March 2019 Grain prices on the domestic market mainly decreased under pressure from negative trends on the export market. The av...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.665/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.4725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&n...

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends February Economic Data Points to Serious Weakness Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates the country’s Purchasi...

Market Commentary

It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record l...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6575/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.53/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. ...

Where Have All the Bulls Gone?

It has been a very tough few weeks for grain and soy market bulls, assuming there are still any left. Those markets have been in a rather steady retreat wi...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian GASC has rejected a shipment of Romanian wheat, saying that it does not meet tender specif...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Update Last week China finally decided to buy more U.S. soybeans, purchasing approximately 2 MMT. The stocks were mainly from the Pacific N...

China Purchasing Commitments; WTO Leverage

China Purchasing Commitments One of the Trump administration’s goals in negotiating a trade deal with China is to get Beijing’s commitment to b...

Market Commentary

Corn, wheat and soybean started ever so slightly firmer Sunday evening and then traded mixed the rest of the night. All the markets started today’s s...

Funds Slam the Markets

Last week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report confirmed that funds (i.e., managed money) continued to expand their short positions in corn, soybeans...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.62/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market continues to erode in sympathy with the MATIF and CBOT futures. Russia has exported approximately 29.5 MMT since the sta...

Cattle on Feed

According to USDA: U.S. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11...

WASDE Soyoil

According to USDA: With increased crush, soybean oil production is raised 115 million pounds to 24.6 billion.  Soybean oil used for methyl ester produ...

WASDE Soymeal

According to USDA:  Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 2,100 million on higher domestic disappearance of soybean meal and a lower soybean m...

WASDE Soybeans

According to USDA: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report.&nb...

Cattle on Feed

USDA’s Cattle on Feed (COF) report for 1 February was released today after being delayed by the government shutdown (the 1 March report will be issue...

WASDE Corn

According to USDA:  This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks.  Corn us...

WASDE Wheat

According to USDA: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks.&nbs...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary

Markets tried to be slightly better overnight and this morning in hope that today’s USDA’s reports might contain some positive news. There was...

No Help for the Bulls

The February and March USDA WASDE (supply and demand) estimates rarely make any significant changes as they come during a dead spot in world markets and gr...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading volume improved, but price movement was limited. Corn and wheat were lower, while soybeans firmed by a few cents ahead of the trading rec...

India Doubles Down; Too Green

India Doubles Down Brazil and Australia have requested WTO dispute consultations with New Delhi, charging that India’s sugar subsidies exceed its com...

The March WASDE and Beyond

Normally, the March WASDE competes for being the least exciting issue of the year. With the South American harvest already underway, it is positioned betwe...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.6525/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.3825/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close...

Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow after the market closes. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number on feed a...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 621,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for Mexico (156,600 MT, including decreases of 13,...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with c...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 25 February-1 March 2019 Domestic grain prices moved in different directions or remained stable, depending on the region. Export pri...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.725/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again as Feed Demand Continues to Drop Despite a decline in soybean imports, China’s soymeal inventories continue t...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets were soft overnight with corn, wheat and soybeans trading slightly below Tuesday’s close. Trading volume was quite low. The day...

Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss

Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferenc...

E15; Biodiesel Duties; The Debt Limit

E15 and SREs  Yesterday the EPA submitted its proposal for year-round E15 use to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for sign-off. As noted here...

Soybean Sector Needs New Driver of Global Demand Growth

The main driver of both soybean import demand and soymeal consumption since 2000/01 has been China. Because of the recent trade dispute with the U.S. and o...

A Potential U.S.-China Trade Deal

Sources in the Trump administration and the press indicate that a new trade agreement with China is nearly complete. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7575/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6275/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. ...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS In Yemen, a U.N. World Food Program team is said to have reached the grain silos near Hodeida. It repor...

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean futures were higher in the Sunday evening session with wheat steady, and that is the way the market opened this morning as well. There was...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview Last week was a strange one for the market. President Trump had threatened to raise duties on imports from China if there was no r...

Smile! Corn and Wheat Bullish, Cattle Rally May be Limited

Corn and wheat options are bullishly positioned following last week’s news of a potential $50-billion agreement between the U.S. and China. Soybean t...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7475/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.555/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&n...

New Crop Revenue Insurance Prices Might Affect Plantings

The initial (and minimum) price guarantees for the crop revenue insurance program, which represent the daily average of the new crop futures during the mon...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week as it followed the decline of the EU and U.S. markets. Russia is exporting about 500 KMT pe...

Trade War to Worsen; USMCA Optimism; U.S.-EU Pessimism

Trade War to Worsen Uncertainty around trade has been a burden to the U.S. economy, especially to farmers, and yet more trouble appears to be coming. Follo...

Market Commentary

Corn was steady, soybeans were higher, and wheat was lower overnight in light trading volume. Everything was then lower after the first hour of the day ses...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.73/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.5725/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nb...

It’s All about Exports

There has been much consternation about the pace of U.S. export sales and shipments for the current marketing year. Interestingly, corn and wheat prices ha...

E15; Biodiesel Credit; Tariff Checks and Balances

There’s been a spate of activity on Capitol Hill of late on some high-profile ag policy issues. Below is an end-of-the week recap. E15 Waiver In test...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures were mixed overnight with wheat trying to rally (again), soybeans a bit weaker and corn stuck in between. Trading volume was not impr...

Farm Subsidy Rulings; Bypassing Congress; Food Contradictions

Farm Subsidy Rulings A WTO dispute settlement panel concluded that China violated its obligations by excessively subsidizing wheat and rice production. Rea...

Cattle Expansion Nearing Peak

USDA released its Cattle Inventory report today, approximately a month late due to the government shutdown. This follows last Friday’s delayed releas...

More Tales from Export Sales

With the release this morning of the USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 21 February, these reports are back to their regular schedule for the...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&n...

Ag Review - February 2019

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outl...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 476,400 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for Indonesia (170,000 MT), the Philippines (74,10...

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean futures prices were fractionally firmer overnight, while wheat prices sought to recover at least a sliver of their February losses. Chicag...

Anti-Competition; Wrong Places; Tariff Impacts Quantified

Anti-Competition The U.S. dairy industry complains that the EU’s effort to codify geographic indicator (GI) protection for its various cheese product...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 February 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated insignificantly, but the average milling wheat export price dropped $6/MT to $2...

Summary of Futures

May 19 Corn closed at $3.7375/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6675/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Up Slightly as Downstream Demand Falters While China’s central government lifted quarantine restrictions toward the end of...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw grain and soy prices leak slightly lower following Monday’s big losses. Notable was corn open interest, which fell nearly 69,00...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.6625/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.6825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close...

Strange Times for Markets

If futures markets were to perform logically all the time, they would not be needed. Furthermore, what seems logical to some may seem completely weird to o...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat export tender of last week has reportedly received a poor response. It was said...

Fear Your Food; Playing the Donald; Playing Europe

Fear Your Food The “fear your food” movement has made its mark when it prompts a rant from the top cabinet officer at USDA’s annual Outlo...

A Shot in the Dark

As it always does, USDA used its Annual Outlook Forum last week in Washington, DC to update its 10-year baseline projections. The trade of course pays the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview After a few weeks of good activity with strong purchases from China, the markets were very quiet last week as the U.S.-China trade...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.705/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.7275/bushel, down $0.19 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary

More positive news during the weekend regarding the prospects for an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade conflict buoyed the soybean complex both last ni...

Smile! Watch the Wheat and Cattle Markets Carefully

The SRW wheat and live cattle options markets are showing unusual patterns that suggests these markets should be watched carefully. The corn market remains...

Farm Economy and China Trade

USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue will testify before the House Agriculture Committee on 27 February regarding the state of the farm economy. With trade tensions...

Cattle on Feed

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on Janua...

Market Commentary

In a day full of new fundamental data, it was policy expectations that ruled the CBOT. Corn and soybean futures were mixed and largely lackluster in today&...

End is Near; Laborious Labor; Define Mal Bouffe

End is Near President Trump’s trade war may or may not eventually bring larger economic gains, but its near-term costs are being tallied. U.S. farmer...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 19 Wheat closed at $4.9175/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&...

Economy and Trade Policy Impacts on Commodities

The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the price received by producers when they sell their output, fell for the second consecutive month in Januar...

A Beef with the Numbers

USDA lowered its estimates for production, imports and exports of beef, which fits with the narrative of a commodity facing threats all around. Every day t...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills we...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 3,574,800 metric tons for delivery in the 2018/2019 marketing year were reported for Nigeria (444,400 MT, including 24,000 MT swi...

Market Commentary

USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum opened its two-day run this morning. “Growing Locally, Selling Globally” is the 2019 theme. USDA...

Livestock and Feed Projections; China Update

Livestock and Feed Projections USDA’s 95th Agricultural Outlook Forum kicked off today in Washington, DC, which is the official rollout of its 10-yea...

Indo-American Trade War; Sino-American Impacts; Cars and Soybeans

Indo-American Trade War Unlike many other governments, New Delhi had been holding off on counterretaliation against the Trump administration’s Sectio...

The U.S.-Chinese Trade Sprint

As has been widely reported, U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting in Washington this week to push toward some sort of agreement on trade before t...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.755/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $4.865/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary

Today’s markets faced a number of crosscurrents. Besides spreading in China, African swine fever (ASF) has appeared in Vietnam and could well spread...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 February 2019 Domestic grain prices either moved in mixed directions or remained stable. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7075/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Lower Food Prices Push Inflation Down in January With China’s major holiday occurring just around the corner in February, the country ty...

Market Commentary

Following the holiday, grain and soy markets began the overnight session just a bit firmer. That lasted until some selling pressure emerged in wheat, which...

Ethanol Outlook

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week. Those projections offer a glimmer o...

Trade Winds Blowing

Despite being shortened by the Presidents Day holiday, this should be an interesting week with another “data dump” featured on 22 February. Fir...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.6975/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $4.8975/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&n...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Desert locust outbreaks in Saudi Arabia and Egypt are a concern for crops. Much rainfall and strong win...

China Naysayers; Liberalization Woke

China Naysayers As Washington and Beijing work toward completing a trade deal, it is clear that not all the U.S. objectives will be accomplished to the sat...

USDA Receives Funding and Congressional Directives

Today the president signed the appropriations bill that will cover the remainder of FY 2019 (through 30 September). The package was passed yesterday in the...

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets were just slightly firmer overnight with wheat slightly lower following yesterday’s fund-related sell-off. Today then saw co...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7475/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.0425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report, which contained small totals for corn, wheat and soybeans along with sales cancellations of the latter to...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean producti...

Market Commentary

Overnight futures trade was limited in volume and price movement. Wheat was slightly weaker, while corn and soybeans hung around Wednesday’s closes...

Volume and Value of Beef and Pork

U.S. beef exports hit record levels in 2018. However, tariffs reduced pork shipments, driving down values. These global demand dynamics are reflected in th...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 131,200 metric tons for 2018/2019--marketing-year low--were down 78 percent from the previous week and 76 percent from the prior...

The Checkered Use of Tariffs

President Donald Trump, a self-declared “Tariff Man,” has made the threat and use of tariffs one of the chief operating mechanisms of his admin...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7475/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.07/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate toda...

U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not; Politicizing EFSA

U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not Newly-elected Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is a lean-right populist in the Donald Trump vein. This gives the two leaders a sense...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 February 2019 Domestic grain prices all increased except for a few that remained stable. However, the average milling wheat expo...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Market Trends A Tale of Two Years With the shutdown of the U.S. government over (at least temporarily), its official statistics are now available to the ge...

Market Commentary

Markets are focused on two things – the trade talks this week in Beijing and the threat of another partial U.S. government shutdown on Saturday. Toda...

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look

If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAS/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Cairo3a Poultry, a major company in grain trading and poultry production with other intere...

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Soy Sector

Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private an...

Friday Deadline Looms for Budget and Border Deal

The Sunday political talk shows painted a dim picture of the ongoing budget discussions between Congress and the administration. Appearing on one of them,...

Leverage Causes Angst

Difficult negotiations go to the brink for a reason, and that dynamic is being revealed on numerous fronts. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting...

Still Too Much Uncertainty

The series of important and delayed USDA reports that were released last Friday did take some of the uncertainty away from the markets. The problem, though...

Market Commentary

Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to t...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Update The market was very quiet last week in Brazil, and movement was focused in the U.S. with the Chinese government purchasing another 5...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic market was about 200 rubles ($3)/MT higher. Its exports are...

House Ag Committee Agenda

The House Agriculture Committee met yesterday for its organizational meeting. Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minnesota) laid out its agenda for the 116th Cong...

Mixed USMCA Signals; Rotten Tomatoes

Mixed USMCA Signals Congressional Democrats are signaling both positively and negatively on the prospects for approval of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement...

Market Commentary

Markets were generally better overnight and this morning following Thursday’s pre-USDA report sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were primarily the r...

USDA Reports Simply More of the Same

All had been hoping that the long-awaited USDA reports released today (originally scheduled for publication on 11 January) would reveal new insight, create...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7425/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...

WASDE Soyoil

According to USDA: U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is estimated at 134.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from the previous report.  Smaller soybean...

WASDE Soymeal

According to USDA: The soybean crush forecast is raised 10 million bushels to 2,090 million.  Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush...

WASDE Soybeans

According to USDA: Soybean production is estimated at 4,544 million bushels, down 56 million.  Harvested area is estimated at 88.1 million acres, down...

WASDE Corn

According to USDA: U.S. corn production is estimated at 14.420 billion bushels, down 206 million on reduction in yield to 176.4 bushels per acre. Harvested...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 201...

WASDE Wheat

According to USDA: Projected 2018/19 wheat ending stocks are raised 36 million bushels on reduced feed and residual use and lower seed use.  Feed and...

Market Commentary

After doing next to nothing for the first three trading days this week while awaiting tomorrow’s USDA reports, traders finally made a move today, and...

Summary of Prices

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.765/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1325/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&...

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; Bayer Rapeseed; U.S. Biodiesel; Indian Protein

U.S. Soy Export Sales Update USDA announced yesterday that exporters had sold an additional 586,000 MT of soybeans to China with all but 63,000 MT to be sh...

Uneven Distribution; Pain Ahead

Uneven Distribution U.S. Farm Belt bankruptcies have reportedly reached a 10-year high as banks show their displeasure with producer balance sheets hammere...

Questions and Comments

Having been without significant scheduled data from USDA since 11 December because of the “lapse of funding” (as USDA politely puts it), it is...

Export Sales

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period December 21-27, 2018. Wheat:  Net sales of 593,000 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 15...

Market Commentary

Agriculture played only a minor role in President Trump’s State of the Union speech last night. He cited the ongoing negotiations with China as an ex...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 January-1 February 2019 Domestic grain prices continued to increase with the exception of a few that remained steady. The slower...

Fruitless Wait for Trump

In a classic article covering viewpoints from various European officials toward U.S. President Donald Trump, Washington Post reporters Dan Balz and Griff W...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

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