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Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

CBO Issues Report on the RFS

The purpose of the report was to address concerns among policy makers and analysts about the feasibility of meeting the higher standards for blending biofu...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Following pressure from the sugar lobby, largely the cooperatives, GOI has agreed to bail out the sugar industry once again and has increased the import du...

Elements of Beef Expansion

Herd expansion still relies on the profitability of the cow-calf sector, which is easy to forget with record cattle prices. Retaining heifers, though, is a...

Oilseed Highlights

Demand for animal feed is on the rise in China as a result of an end to avian flu outbreaks this spring and a recovery in swine profitability. This increas...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Some Off the Wall Questions

In the course of searching for something new and different to write about, we found ourselves thinking about a variety of generally unrelated off the wall...

Policy; CAFOs; Forum Shopping

Beijing will reportedly experiment with making a deficiency payment to farmers in order to bridge the difference between the market price and what farmers...

Market Commentary

KC July HRW was up 7 cents as rains are again delaying harvest in Kansas and posing the threat of quality deterioration. Rains have also delayed the Mid-So...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian grain producers will need 1.5 billion m3 of natural gas to dry the grain and oilseed crops to be harvested in 2014 and want guarantees from the g...

World Perspectives on the Move

Please note that World Perspectives has changed locations and our new address is: 1301 Pennsylvania Ave. NW  Suite 501, Washington, DC 20004 Please...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Funds certainly did not show anxiety over the size of their July positions today. Prior to the market opening, there were still about 142,000 contracts of...

Spanking; Rules

U.S. trade negotiators are asserting that regulatory convergence under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will offer more safety dat...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Because of inconsistent export policies out of Argentina and recent declines in regional exportable wheat supplies, the Brazilian government will reduce th...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to the FAO, Egypt's wheat and corn crops this year will be slightly above average size this year, but it expects that the country will have to im...

Oilseed Highlights

The European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) has determined that Monsanto's MON 88302 biotech rapeseed event is safe for human and animal health and poses no thr...

Federal Reserve Mostly Staying the Course

There was some expectation that the Federal Reserve Board would address the federal funds rate in a more aggressive manner than it did, but the official wo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

30 June and Beyond

The 30 June acreage figures will be etched in stone at the top of everyone's 2014/15 supply/demand estimates for the entire crop year until or unless they...

Market Commentary

Corn futures closed lower on favorable weather prospects that encourage thoughts of an above trend yield. Old crop soybeans and the old crop/new crop sprea...

China In-Country Analysis

The 17 June state soybean reserves auction size was 358,558 MT. However, weak demand was evident as sales totaled only 72,852 MT, which is a lower turnover...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Global Oil Supply Buffering ISIS Impact in Iraq

While the effect of the Iraqi ISIS situation has been limited to date and the increase in U.S. and world production has provided a buffer, there are certai...

Market Commentary

There was plenty of market chatter this morning trying to explain the last minute surge in soybean and soymeal futures last Friday. Trade this week could s...

Fights and Battles

The war on fat, sugar and salt rivals the longstanding war over biotechnology. The latest involved a broadside from lawyers Rick Frank and Bruce Silverglad...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The excessive rains that have persisted in Bulgaria and Romania for more than two months peaked last Thursday night. Farmers in the most severely affected...

Why North Dakota Has Joined the Corn Belt

Has it been the new plant genetics that have pushed corn and soybeans farther north and west, or has it really been the shift to a Corn Belt climate across...

Oilseed Highlights

Because of the heavy rainfall, some farmers meeting in Minnesota said they have lost as much as 10-15 percent of their crops to flooding. At this point, th...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's new government plans to revamp the flagship scheme of its predecssor, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGA), and h...

Market Commentary

Corn futures were slightly lower overnight and early today before gradually pushing toward slightly higher. There was never any concerted selling pressure...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Senate Appropriations: Minibus Parked

The Senate minibus appropriations bill, which covered the Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Transportation and Housing and Urban Development Departments, has...

Looking East; Rubbish; Another FTA

Should  the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) reach fruition this year, the pressure on Brussels to recalibrate will be great as capital markets have al...

Wheat is Not Just Wheat

There is only one class of corn and one of soybeans, but there are officially six classes of wheat produced in the U.S. that all have different properties...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oxymoronic; Alternative Motive

It is time for Congress to reassess the RFS and rewrite its requirements to match both the technical feasibility and market economics that currently prevai...

Global Food Security Challenge

The goal of ending world hunger has always had universal support, but for many years the challenges involved in achieving this have tended to stay on the f...

Market Commentary

Export sales were generally light, reflecting increased competition from other origins and the buyers' hopes for lower prices to come. However, we should p...

Prices for Proteins at All Time High

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest release for May 2014, the seasonally adjusted prices for red meat, poultry, eggs and even fish (driven...

Market Commentary

KC HRW futures were the star of the market today. Poor yields and fear that heavy rains might lower the quality of what is harvested coalesced to push KC J...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian milling wheat and feed wheat prices declined on the domestic market as farmers in the southern regions started harvesting winter wheat and have r...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Argentine soybean harvest is 90 percent complete, while farmer selling is only 35 percent finished, which is significantly behind the historical pace...

End Game; Rice Price

Rice is one of those thinly traded (less than 10 percent of production moves into international trade), highly subsidized commodities that annoys everyone...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Morocco's Attijariwafa Bank is financing $300 million for Russian wheat purchases during the 2014/15 import period. The agreement was signed in Moscow last...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

House Majority Leader and Immigration Reform

Representative Eric Cantor (R-Virginia) became the first House majority leader to be defeated in a primary, based largely on immigration. Now Representativ...

Market Commentary

Wheat prices were lower early, reaching the lowest levels in over four months. However, this brought on some bargain hunting buying interest that helped pr...

Oilseed Highlights

Global biodiesel production has grown to reach approximately 29.12 MMT this year and has become the market for about 7.3 MMT of soyoil, 9.6 MMT of palm oil...

The Soybean Puzzle – Again

Why are markets ignoring all of the numbers that on paper add up to an incredibly tight supply situation?USDA's weekly crop condition report rated 76 perce...

It Could Be a Slow Summer

There are few potential crop production problems around the world as we are heading into the last half of June. It is going to be difficult to encourage an...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China's announcement on 7 June that that it would suspend the issuance of import permits for U.S DDGS has resulted in rising prices for domestic DDGS as we...

New RFS Reform Proposal: U.S. Advanced Biofuel Only

The bill would require all advanced biofuels (undifferentiated advanced, biodiesel and cellulosic) to be produced in the U.S. as well as continue to meet t...

Bye-Bye Bali; Common Language

India and the G-33 group of developing nations are upset that affluent WTO members are asking for more data on New Delhi's agricultural subsidies. Common L...

Market Commentary

Expectations of great crop ratings today coupled with few, if any, weather problems continue to pressure corn prices lower. Some analysts are now starting...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania may result in a larger share of feed versus milling wheat this year. In 2013/14, both countries exported about...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

There is hope that India's new government will bolster the economy's upward turn with revisions in policy. Industrial production rose in April 2014 as infl...

Market Commentary

Wheat followed corn's gains despite the fact that Egypt bought Romanian and Russian wheat yesterday. No one expected U.S. wheat to trade. The EU reported t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Too Many Shuttle Loaders

Operating margins for shuttle loaders have been exceptionally good in recent years because of good crops and strong demand, but are now becoming more compr...

CFTC Reauthorization

The House reauthorization bill contains a number of reforms and addresses many of the Dodd-Frank Act provisions. It should be able to move through that cha...

Trade and Biofuel Skids

Canadian Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz has taken a more strident position regarding agricultural trade liberalization via TPP than perhaps the Japanese a...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA increased its estimates for Argentina's domestic soymeal consumption yesterday to reflect rising exports of mixed feeds. While most of these exports i...

EPA Extends Comment Period on Water Rule

This delay is considered a major tactical victory by most livestock and agriculture groups. If approved, the new guideline would effectively remove the wor...

Market Commentary

Last year at this time, the red hot cash market and record high basis bids led the soy futures market to high prices and a wide old/new crop inverse. This...

Meat, Critics and Consumers

As the world recovers ever so gradually from the 2008-10 recession and its aftermath, the percentage of the world's population considered to be middle clas...

Unchlorinated; Screwy

The House will not complete the fiscal 2015 agriculture appropriations bill until next week, but already there have been some harmful amendments adopted. U...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Selective; True Colors; Inequality

FAS Agricultural Counselor Allan Mustard (nominated to be U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan) has issued a report exposing how New Delhi is substantially subs...

Majority Leader Who Delayed Farm Bill Ousted in Primary

Yesterday the number two Republican in the House lost his seat in an upset primary. Ironically, Cantor has tried for two years to schedule a legislative ag...

Market Commentary

June WASDEs are seldom major market movers, and today's report was certainly was not bullish. As if by signal, there was a general across-the-board sell of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Buyers in China are reported to be interested in buying Russian grain, and Rosselkhoznadzor (the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveilla...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

This year Argentine farmers have sold 1.57 MMT fewer soybeans than the total for the same date a year ago. The most important information for the market is...

A Week’s Worth of Differences

The trading record shows how thoroughly the price action of November soybeans has been dominated by the July contract, which is to say, by the very tight o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

This morning, Brazil's Conab revised its estimate of that country's 2013/14 corn production upward to 77.9 MMT, second only to last year's 81.5 MMT. M...

Trade Policy: Restrictions; UnSchocked

Calculations by the EU indicate that safeguard measures against its exports rose by 10 percent in 2013, and some of the prime blockers included India, Chin...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt has decided to delay its planned increase in the price of fuel for industry, individuals and homes as the belief is that it would be bad for the over...

Oilseed Highlights

India's soybean-producing regions are expected to be particularly vulnerable to inadequate rains from this year's monsoon, and there also is concern about...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Both the Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops are developing under generally favorable conditions, and most analysts estimate that the combined 2014/15 surplu...

China In-Country Analysis

Historically, China has established a minimum purchase price only for buying directly from farmers and replenishing provincial reserves. Now the central go...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

House Agenda: Where Ag Fits Into Election Year Politics

While it is likely Congress will work toward having a continuing resolution by the end of the year, three appropriations bills have been tabbed to move for...

Market Commentary

The primary bearish factor hanging over the corn and soybean markets is the size of the speculative length. Exiting and rolling of positions by large specu...

Ethanol Election; Studies in Failure

Biofuel policy has always been political, and now there is a reported election year effort to use EPA's final decision on the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards...

What Happens Next?

Soybeans remain the wild card. The big money refuses to let go of the soybean market despite several recent head fakes that looked like the start of a majo...

Market Commentary

The combination of double-digit gains in both July and December corn contracts and the engulfing candlestick pattern of the prior day's close are indicativ...

Brazil’s Demands; Green Washing; Efficiency

The activist group called Anonymous has reportedly released Brazil's demands for settlement of the WTO cotton case against the U.S., and it is sure to rile...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

To retain agriculturists in the farming business, India's government is eager to provide income security and assist the farming communities in conserving w...

Looking at SNAP Backward and Forward

According to the House Budget Committee report, SNAP spending that totaled $78 billion in 2012 is scheduled to decrease slightly over the next 10 years, bu...

Canada Legislates Better Rail Service

The uproar over the plight of Canada's rail logistics has been an issue since the 2013 harvest that was 50 percent larger in volume than the 10-year averag...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Because of a smaller than normal soybean crop in 2013 that was also of poor quality, India is facing a shortage of soymeal this year to feed its domestic a...

Research Misdirection and Adequacy; Food and Weapons

There is gnashing of the teeth by some in Washington because public funding of agricultural research is largely ignored. However, this ignores two importan...

Ag Review: The Middle East and U.S. Agriculture

Middle East Squeeze The energy abundance brought about by the fracking boom is causing OPEC heartache and could eventually spark another Middle East food c...

Market Commentary

A somewhat interesting development in the soy complex is that old crop contracts appeared weaker than new crop in both soybeans and meal. That condition ne...

Protein Consumption Still Down with Lower Feed Costs

2014 feed costs are projected down about $6 billion from last year, a drop of more than 11 percent. However, the bow wave effect of high feed costs is stil...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's 2014 winter grains harvest is forecasted at 26.2 MMT, almost 1 MMT more than in 2013. The increase is expected as a result of the gain in average...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

A number of South American corn exporters are very scared by the current pricing dynamics because they need movement through the ports, storehouses and oth...

Market Commentary

Buying into the present downward trend in corn contracts does seem to make sense for the trader who has sufficient capital and a realistically defined exit...

Turk, Pak, Braz; Food Religion

It is entirely feasible that a settlement in the WTO cotton case will involve U.S. taxpayers subsidizing Brazilian cotton farmers so that they can continue...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets were soft again overnight with the soy complex leading the way lower. That softness turned into a much harder downturn once the regular day trading...

Oilseed Highlights

The current marketing year is on track for the combined U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil to set a record. There is also an expectation that thi...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt is considering revisions to its wheat import specifications, particularly moisture, which could once again enable the importation of French wheat. GA...

EPA Clean Air Plan: Biomass Options Questioned

Perhaps the most telling comment from EPA's Science Advisory Board  (SAB) was the recommendation to benchmark electric generation with an ethanol plan...

Political Instability in Ukraine – the Fertilizer Fallout

A major determinant for the competitiveness of Ukrainian fertilizer on global export markets is its cash cost of production, and the country's current conf...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Land Rents Headed Down?

The longer-term reality is that unless there is a crop production problem someplace this year that significantly changes the U.S. or world supply situation...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania are threatening the wheat quality there as the moisture favors the spreading of diseases. These rains are often cou...

Unintended; False; Survey Says

The group People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) has sparked furor with its "Got Autism?" campaign that seeks to link consumption of dairy prod...

Market Commentary

It was another interesting day in the soy complex. July futures went right down to technical support at $14.78 overnight and then reversed course when the...

EPA Clean Air Plan: What to Watch for in Ag Impacts

If this plan survives inevitable court challenges, there will be an opportunity for EPA to move this model on to other sectors such as agriculture, particu...

China In-Country Analysis

China's soymeal price fluctuated up to $654/MT during the week of 26 May as most of the country's large and mid-sized feed producers are stocking up ...

Global Biodiesel Roundup

Argentina, the world's top biodiesel exporter, is considering a proposed reaction to the EU's imposition of anti-dumping duties on its biodiesel and is als...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India's milk demand rises for many reasons, the sourcing of good, quality milk is one of the main concerns for the large dairy processing companies as s...

Market Commentary

All markets gradually succumbed to moderate selling pressure as the day wore on. Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower by noon. It was also the last trad...

Cow Paddy; Madness; Bogus; Sailed

The Cairns Group, a coalition of agricultural exporting countries, is trying to reinvigorate WTO negotiations for placing stronger limits on domestic farm...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

What About Argentina?

Seemingly lost in all of the soybean market talk is anything relevant to Argentina. It has been in the background for a very long time for many reasons, ne...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Volume picked up somewhat during the day session in which corn prices ground lower, wheat gave up its overnight gains to join corn in the red and soybeans...

Trade Agreements; Speculation; Approps; Biotech

European filmmakers and EU culture ministers are reportedly rallying against the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, chargi...

Super-Villainous GMOs

When we think of superhero/super-villain movies and their common characteristics, it is really not a big stretch to compare them to the strident controvers...

Poultry Leading Mergers and Acquisition Activity

Feed costs for poultry producers are down about 19 percent year-over-year and demand for chicken is strong, given the high prices caused by reduced beef an...

Oilseed Highlights

Why has the U.S. sold almost five times as much soymeal for export in the next marketing year than the average sold in the previous three marketing years a...

Fuzzy Econ and Science; Biotech and Biofuel

U.S. EPA proposed a reduction in the biofuel mandate, but is reportedly considering walking back a bit on the decision. Lending credence to that outcome is...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Chinese buyers continued to purchase old crop soybeans from Brazil for June-August. In contrast, the Argentine market remains very quiet, although there is...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy futures market price action has evolved into a contest between extremely tight old crop soybean supplies and old crop futures and just ab...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia is reported to have exported 24.104 MMT of grain as of 21 May 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14. However, a Rusagrotrans official expects Ju...

Oilseed Highlights

Industry officials yesterday indicated the Brazilian government is expected tomorrow to increase the minimum amount of biodiesel to be blended into diesel...

Spring Into Summer

USDA's initial projections for U.S. 2014/15 crop production in the May WASDE seemed quite optimistic at the time they were released in the midst of the ear...

Market Commentary

The corn market is signaling technical weakness, and we wonder how long discretionary fund longs will be willing to hang on. They need a weather problem to...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Contracts have been awarded in Egypt for the building of two UAE-financed wheat silos there. These are the first two in the joint UAE/Egypt project to buil...

MCC/TF; Denials; Shorts

Ideas of all stripes can be threatening to some, but Europe faces the unique risk of completely offshoring the pursuit of scientific ideas. Tie MCC to TF T...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Election Year Issues Kick in: EPA in Crosshairs

Senate Agriculture Committee Republicans have signed a letter to EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy regarding a number of regulatory matters before the agency...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Morals; Uncertainty; Baloney

The EU's import ban of seal products on "public moral concerns" was upheld by the WTO Appellate Body and could greatly broaden the use of moral claims for...

Ag Appropriations Moving Forward

Both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees are working within the constraints of keeping total discretionary funding at $1.014 trillion, which cam...

Once Again We Underestimate Fund Demand

Back eight or nine years ago when the ethanol boom happened and drove prices of everything to new all-time highs, much of that new buying was generated by...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With prevailing heat wave conditions and indications of a delayed monsoon, several Indian states have issued an advisory stipulating a delay in crop planti...

Market Commentary

Corn was steady to 1-2 higher much of the session in trading volume that was something less than half of normal levels ahead of the long weekend. China wil...

FY 2015 Appropriations Bill

The House passed the agricultural appropriations bill for FY 2015 yesterday, and its biggest controversy revolves around USDA efforts to make school lunche...

Oilseed Highlights

Data released yesterday by China's General Administration of Customs indicates Chinese soybean processors have sharply increased their soymeal exports in t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Reprise: The U.S. and World Grain Prices

The recent price movements of the world's most widely-watched soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts have called to mind once again the question of what...

Market Commentary

With two weeks of the crop year left to account for, wheat shipments are more than 120 million bushels below USDA's estimate. There seems no way that gap c...

Choosing a Cat Fight

Washington offers multiple and varied opportunities to engage in the agricultural policy debate, and today presented two competing options that are both an...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Dark Prince; Breakthrough

China will correctly exploit science, technology and mechanization to advance its own agricultural production, but it will err if it worries about the Lest...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 16 May, Ukraine's grain exports totaled 30.5 MMT, 43.2 percent more than during the same period in the previous market year. Included were 8.8 MMT of...

Market Commentary

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released the minutes from its April meeting today, and the stock market seemed to like what it read. General Comments The U.S...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazil needs to seriously consider trade issues as it may become the leading soybean exporter next season. Minister of Agriculture Neri Geller declared tha...

Oilseed Highlights

There are indications that at least five more cargoes of Brazilian soybeans are ether on their way to the U.S. or soon will be. Additional shipments of Bra...

GI Campaign

The EU is subsidizing an education campaign in the U.S. with the goal of having its farmers clamor for geographic indicators (GIs), but the trick is for Br...

Farmland, Credit Conditions and the Fed’s Exit Strategy

We've been in a period of low interest rates and high commodity prices that have helped drive up farm real estate values. Now the Federal Reserve is consid...

Market Commentary

It was a rather strange day for grain and soy markets, which saw prices swinging in wide trading ranges. General Comments It was a rather strange day for...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The Chamber of Commerce in Egypt has announced that it is working with four banks there to provide financing for the expansion of the poultry industry in U...

Soybean Market Fun and Games

The soybean futures market seems to ignore the seemingly inevitable, bearish shift in soybean supply/demand fundamentals in 2014/15. It is almost as though...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Wobbles; Cost of Purity; Traps

A House Agriculture Appropriations subcommittee considers a $20.9 billion FY 2015 funding bill tomorrow that would provide the Farm Service Agency with a $...

Reorganizing USDA for Trade

Given the importance and volatility of non-tariff trade barrier issues, the catalyst behind the reorganization was the need to have a central trade authori...

The Issue of Rail Logistics

The situation in Canada is far worse than in the U.S., and all of this has prompted much talk about how long the logistical problems will last. Some are ev...

India’s Election Result and the Global Phosphates Market

The prospect of a new government with a strong economic agenda has recently helped the INR recoup some of its losses, which could result in improved afford...

Market Commentary

Soybeans again defied all of the bearish fundamental inputs and rallied sharply on significant fund buying. That left many in the trade looking for a solid...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The heavy pressure on the Black Sea market last week was driven by the multinational trading houses after the collapse of the futures' markets in the U.S...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) and Ministry of Education together recently launched the "Training Plan for New Type Professional Farmers." This init...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

This late spring will result in fewer corn acres across the Northern Plains. North Dakota, for example, was expected to plant 2.95 million acres of corn in...

New Farm Program: Choices Ahead

Congress made a number of significant changes to crop support programs with the Agricultural Act of 2014, and farmers must make a one-time enrollment choic...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

November soybean futures were again about the only agricultural commodity to trade on the plus side today. China said it will sell 300,000 MT of soybeans f...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Mr.Narendra Modi, known to be very pro-technology, is expected to be India's new prime minister with the predicted landslide victory for the Hindu-dominate...

Dying for Rice; Faithless; Naked Tommy

It is hard to complain after pondering the conditions in North Korea where it is reported that Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has ordered up some reforms in ag...

Market Commentary

Good wheat crop prospects elsewhere, the lack of demand from importers and lower offers from Black Sea sellers seem to have overcome the impact of the drou...

Second BSE Case in Brazil

The cow was born on a farm it never left and where animals are fed by pasture grazing and mineral salts, rather than manufactured feed. Korea, Egypt, Peru...

Oilseed Highlights

Lieutenant General Mi Zhenyu, former deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Military Science, recently wrote that the inclusion of soybean protein from...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Market’s Next Task

For the past three years, strong market prices were needed to encourage sufficient crop production to meet growing demand. The next task for the market to...

Killing; Disclosure; El Niño

There is a very vocal opposition to TTIP in Europe, and politics will shift further against it when EU Parliament elections next week likely empower more p...

Market Commentary

Grains seemed neglected during the overnight session as witnessed by a very light trading volume. After a slow and mixed start, the day session saw more tr...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Shipments of Argentine soybeans are quite delayed this season due to a late harvest, quality issues and problems in the port of Necochea that limit the dra...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian Minister of  Agrarian Policy and Food Ihor Shvaika met with EU commissioners on 13 May to discuss trade-related issues and further developme...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trade Policy Angles

One has to greatly sympathize with the conclusions reached by Copa-Cogeca, Europe's central farm organization, that the EU Commission's pursuit of a trade...

Oilseed Highlights

Farmers in northern Argentina evidently have found a way of avoiding the nation's 35 percent export tax by smuggling their soybeans into neighboring Paragu...

Demand is the Thing

The world's combined ending stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans are projected to be almost 88 MMT greater than they were just two years prior. Said another...

U.S.-Korea FTA Under Fire with Implications for TPP

Four Democratic members of the House of Representatives issued a press release criticizing the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) regarding numbers related t...

HFT is Manageable

At today's Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, even Andrei Kirilenko, the former CFTC chief economist and now MIT professor brought in to critique HFT, o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

It was Turnaround Tuesday for the corn and soy complex futures markets as prices rebounded from yesterday's sinking spell. The turnaround began during the...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The trade reports that Egypt's payment for government-purchased grains is slowing significantly with delays in opening letters of credit for tender purchas...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

For the moment, the trend of increasing quality that was observed in the Bulgarian and Romanian wheat crop during the past five years will be reversed as f...

Reality; Over-Certified; Amish

Policymakers in recent years have sought ways to offset the market's tendency toward commoditization in agriculture and thus raise farmer income by extract...

Market Commentary

Evidently, the funds that have been long decided to start liquidating some of that length following last Friday's USDA reports as well as what appears to b...

China In-Country Analysis

China's auction of state temporary soybean reserves will begin 13 May 2014, according to official sources, and it is estimated that the size will reach 3 M...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Court Rejects Challenge to 2013 Biofuels Mandate

At issue were whether EPA set the 2013 RVOs too late to be valid, a precedent that will have implications for this year, and if both the overall and advanc...

Show Me the Weather

It looks from here like wheat might have the tightest fundamentals going into MY 2014/15. Weather's impact on feed grains production (either negative or po...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Sugar Antidumping Case against Mexico

The Department of Commerce initiated an investigation last month to determine if the Mexican government has subsidized the country's sugar production and w...

May USDA WASDE

USDA's total U.S. wheat production estimate came in below what the trade was expecting. We also note that USDA's hard red winter wheat production estimate...

Good News, and More of the Same

It doesn't happen often, but it looks like Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the House will be sending a reauthorization of the Water Resources R...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat markets were lower and soybeans mixed in very light overnight trading volume ahead of this morning's USDA reports. In spite of a bearish new...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's milk production is declining, and prices are rising with the approach of summer when demand typically increases. Stocks of skimmed milk powder (SMP...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The soybean surplus on the Chinese market will apparently worsen beginning next week as Sinograins announced today that it will auction 300,000 MT of soybe...

China Stockpiling Pork

China's fresh pork prices are at their lowest point since September 2010 and down 19 percent from September of last year. As a result, the Chinese National...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade was mixed with soybeans trying to reverse this week's downward trend, while wheat and corn were a little weaker. The day session saw simila...

Issues and Questions

While the May WASDE provides a first look at USDA's analytical insights for the following crop year, it seems the remainder of each old crop year can no lo...

Truth in Labeling

Consumer Reports has now found that 81 percent of those surveyed believe the organic label means that no pesticides were used in production, which is erron...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Chinese crushers have returned to demand soybeans from South America. Following two months of inactivity and desperate attempts to resell cargoes of prior...

Diversity; Trade Policy Curiosities

Whatever was discussed between Japanese Prime Minister Abe and U.S. President Obama a few days ago becomes more curious by the day. Diversity Marketing Pla...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's annual report covering food safety has noted that measures taken by the government to stabilize the situation in agriculture will result in genera...

Market Commentary

Based on anecdotal evidence, it seems likely that next Monday's USDA report should show corn planting progress reaching close to 60 percent, or even more,...

Market Commentary

Unlike last year, soybean bulls are getting no help whatsoever from the cash market. Soybean crushers are relaxed, and export demand has fallen to a trickl...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. cottonseed shortage has been exacerbated by the nation's dairy and cattle feeding sectors' continued strong demand for its usage in direct feeding...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Wheat farmers in Kenya are very concerned because of an outbreak of wheat stem rust. No control for this type of wheat rust exists as it was first seen in...

Trade Deficit and Energy

Energy is one of the most interesting aspects of the U.S. balance of payments account. Higher energy production in the U.S. is transforming the nation's tr...

Free Riders: Bali, Aid, Beef

African trade ministers have apparently decided to act like Cape buffalo with a decision last week that reverses their commitment at the WTO ministerial in...

Wheat Market Conundrum

The U.S. wheat futures markets are facing a dilemma. Should they price the relatively bullish wheat supply/demand balance, or the relatively bearish world...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ag Review: Commentary on Opportunities in Agriculture

Opportunity: Complementarity The TTIP negotiations are an opportunity, despite the skepticism. The challenge is overcoming all of the pitfalls and finding...

China In-Country Analysis

China's milk powder imports reached a record-high 109,000 MT in March as AQSIQ recently announced that imported milk products without labels in Chinese are...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Stats Canada released its quarterly stocks estimates this morning, and today's numbers again highlighted the magnitude of Canada's 2013 crop production. S...

Market Commentary

It was the record-high temperatures and strong winds across the Southern Plains over the weekend that rallied wheat markets. Some weather forecasters were...

Anti; Mysteries; Shorts; and Surveys

France is insisting that if the EU does not invoke a ban on imports of hogs and pork as a result of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv), it will uni...

Legislative Agenda for the Year

There are only about 40 scheduled days of legislative session left for the remaining 2014 legislative calendar. That leaves the Congressional schedule very...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

South America Highlights

Current economic dynamics in Brazil and Argentina are creating some opportunities for the agricultural sectors in both Uruguay and Paraguay. Brazil The Bra...

Economy Poised for Second Quarter Growth in 2014

Consumer spending was unusually strong as it surged 0.9 percent in March, the largest gain since 2005 with the exception of one month in 2009. The release...

Expanding the Foodie Concept

Recognizing the intellectual superiority of small, local and organic over conventionally-produced foods, a new initiative will seek to mimic the approach i...

Tokenism; Fishy; Man Bites Dog

Members of Congress have demanded that Japan agree to zero tariffs on agricultural products, but they apparently will not be getting their wish. Tokenism E...

Market Commentary

Wheat had a great deal of bullish news today, which started with the Kansas crop tour results. General Comments Markets were slightly higher in quiet overn...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The EU temporary ban on imports of select Indian fruit and vegetables could have wide implications for a variety of other produce subject to the same quara...

U.S. HRW Wheat Crop Collapsing

The smallest HRW production number going all the way back more than 45 years was 620 million bushels in 2002, although It's not likely we can see a disaste...

What is Meant

European Commission President José Durâo Barroso is in Washington, and his message is that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreem...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of China recently issued its first official Agricultural Outlook Report, covering the period 2014-2023. Among other projections in the repor...

Old Perceptions and New Perceptions

It occurs to us that if nothing else, the flipping of the calendar page to May will force a re-examination of the perceptions that directed the market's pr...

State of the Livestock Industry

Trade was a major topic covered by most of the witnesses testifying at yesterday's hearing held by the Livestock, Rural Development and Credit subcommittee...

Market Commentary

Given what was happening with soybeans and corn, today's price break by CME wheat seemed about in line, and KC HRW's losses actually appear rather modest...

Market Commentary

Wheat futures prices, led by KC HRW, responded to pessimistic reports from the Plains HRW crop tour and little sign of drought relief in the offing. Genera...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Prices for the 2014 Russian grain harvest are expected to be influenced equally by both political and climate-related factors. Due to the pending holidays,...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina remains largely out of the global soybean market as exporters are not offering beans with regular quality (basis 34 percent, minimum 34.5 percent...

Policy Shorts

U.S. House Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee Chair David Nunes (R-California) warned today that if President Obama fails to compel Congressional passage...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Welfare; Betrayal; Externalities

If one believes the organic industry, it produces more ethical food that is safer and more nutritious. Some in the organic community now want to incorporat...

Oilseed Highlights

Two organizations in India have concluded that the country should focus on increasing the use of soybeans to alleviate protein malnutrition, rather than ex...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Farmers in Zimbabwe continue to be unhappy with the government's set purchase price for local corn that is said to be about $30/MT lower than the cost of p...

Corn’s Changing Dynamics

The plain fact is that we all missed the pent-up corn demand and end user stock building, inspired by the low harvest time prices that seemed very attracti...

Market Commentary

The Kansas crop tour got underway this morning, and the first report from the tour popped KC wheat futures to double-digit gains. General Comments Markets...

HFCS Trends: Red Bull a Bear for Corn Sweetener

Energy drinks were a $350 million market in 2000 and reached about $9 billion in 2013, a 2,471 percent growth. Red Bull is the category's market leader.Bac...

Market Commentary

After a sharply higher early overnight trade, grain and soy futures gradually calmed down to finish the first trading session of the week in relatively pla...

Stats Canada Acreage Data

There is some concern that western Canadian farmers' planting plans are still in flux because the spring season has been so slow to arrive.Stats Canada rel...

China In-Country Analysis

While the long-term fundamentals suggest that the ongoing westernization of China's diet should lead to increased imports of soybeans, corn and pork, the c...

Ignoring the Valuable; Biotech Labeling Retort

Given that 70 percent of processed food in the U.S. may contain at least one ingredient from food biotechnology, there are at least three constitutional la...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The general perception in the market is that the wheat is overpriced due to the high political risk premium now included since the start of the Ukrainian/R...

Food Aid Is Secondary Priority of Food Aid Programs

According to some policymakers, the requirement that aid be sent on U.S.-flagged vessels might be the most important issue.The White House has long ma...

Trade Trumped; Greek Spin; Cow Poop; Etc.

Given that free trade is about unleashing economic comparative advantage, there is much to worry about in Greek agriculture. Security Trumps Business, Agai...

Notes from Asia

The real story from Asia continues to be the expansion of the middle class and how that will continue to drive demand for everything from agricultural comm...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With the IMD predicting a 56 percent probability of a deficient or below-normal monsoon for India, the impact on the farm sector and the country's overall...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed in very light volume throughout most of the night session, but the tone gradually changed for several reasons. General Comments Markets...

Cellulosic Ethanol May Not Reduce Emissions

There was another blow to the cellulosic mandate this week as well as a new study challenging the notion that advanced biofuels reduce greenhouse gas emiss...

Oilseed Highlights

Today it was confirmed that three employees of Marubeni's Columbia Grain subsidiary were arrested in China. Although it is believed to be soy-related, the...

Possible Brazilian Mad Cow Case

This potential case could be similar to a 2012 incident in Parana where an animal developed the prion, or abnormal, pathogenic agents that induce folding o...

Too High or Too Low

When we or anyone says that a particular market price is too high or too low, it may sound like we are saying that the market is wrong even though the mark...

Market Commentary

After some overnight weakness, prices at all three wheat futures markets rallied to post double-digit gains. The apparent worsening situation in Ukraine an...

Trade Truth; Middle East, Commodities

Turning public opinion into a supportive force that can overcome special interests will require political leadership in Washington, Brussels, Tokyo and man...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Signs indicate that demand for old crop corn remains brisk, and corn exports are holding to a level that appears to justify USDA's latest estimate of 1.75...

Trade Convulsions; Reorg

The EU wants the U.S. Congress to pass Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) as soon as possible, but the European resistance to fixing current trade barriers is...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia exported 194,800 MT of sunflower oil in March 2014 (a 5 percent gain compared to February 2014 and 48 percent more than March 2013), the highest&nbs...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina is not as affected as Brazil by the Chinese soybean situation, but its beans have been found to have quality problems that could be a reason for...

Citing a Few Potential Market Factors

The potential for unforeseen internal and external influences to move prices in either direction, short-term and/or long-term, remains at least as large as...

USDA Creates Investment Fund

The industries eligible for this new federally-facilitated investment fund include bio-manufacturing, advanced energy production, local and regional food s...

Oilseed Highlights

China's Ministry of Commerce today raised its forecast for the country's April soybean imports. However, the recent defaults on soybean imports and rumors...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's government has advised that current stocks and orders of wheat will last until 19 June 2014, while the country's wheat crop has a very wide range o...

Market Commentary

The soybean market was rife with rumors of Chinese defaults and a Chinese government crackdown on letters of credit, supposedly issued to pay for commodity...

Foreign Assistance: Unneeded Advice

Indeed, it is hundreds of U.S. domestic programs that fail the government's Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART), but continue to be funded.Experts gather...

U.S. Soybean Outlook

We note that every year at this time we have looked at projections for rapidly building soybean ending supplies in the U.S. that have yet to materialize, e...

China In-Country Analysis

The Chinese government's stricter inspections of imported DDGS is currently affecting the domestic rapeseed meal price and also a factor in its growing dem...

Market Commentary

There were reports of a frost/freeze across Argentina that might have done some damage to late-planted corn and soybeans, but this news didn't cause a ripp...

Ethanol Roundup

Interestingly, as the import window into the U.S. appears to be closing, the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) is reporting that domestic et...

U.S.–Japan in the Spotlight

While a complete TPP agreement is not expected, the weights of geopolitics, national security and economics have converged to pressure President Obama and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Soybean Puzzle

Does the fundamental outlook for soybeans as seen right now in April 2014 deserve an old crop/new crop inverse so much wider than during April 2013?For som...

Currency; TPP Deal; Waste; Bad Seed

The signals regarding TPP just days before President Obama heads to Japan are mixed and confusing. Currency Conundrum Some powerful congressional Democrats...

Oilseed Highlights

Because China is such a dominant soybean importer, the crushers there think they have the upper hand in forcing sellers to renegotiate prices to a lower le...

Easter Inflation

Not since the corn price run-up in 2008 have eggs been as expensive, and their prices are at a six-year high. Easter Inflation In keeping with seasonal dem...

Market Commentary

Today's early trade saw wheat prices firm, while corn and the complex traded mostly with red numbers. Volume was fairly active for a pre-long weekend sessi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Italian Reform; Curbing Speculators

Italy's proposed agricultural policy modifications include some 21st century concepts, while others appear to be more of the same, making it only partial r...

Market Commentary

With the Ukrainian/Russian crisis always lurking and the U.S. HRW crop not in good shape, wheat futures prices are moving up and down nervously. General Co...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybean selling by Argentine farmers is projected to substantially increase going into June, potentially to a record level, as a result of the increased ha...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 11 April 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, Ukraine has exported 28.338 MMT of grain. According to Ukrainian Grain Association President Vlad...

The Potential Impact of U.S. Soybean Imports

The U.S. 2013/14 soybean year will be unique in a number of ways. One of its most unusual elements will be record-large imports with a majority of the fina...

Oilseed Highlights

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) today released a surprisingly large soybean crush report for March that was the main reason soybean futu...

GAO Reports on RFS Impact on Refineries

The study was requested by Senators David Vitter (R-Louisiana) and James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) with the specific topic of how regulatory costs impact the com...

Market Commentary

The strength of wheat and soybeans and fear that the Ukrainian situation is escalating probably kept the corn market from closing lower. General Comments T...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Jordan will need to continue importing close to 100 percent of its needed wheat supply, according to USDA FAS in Amman. With the influx of Syrian refugees,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn tried to tag along with wheat, but never got better than 8-9 higher and actually faded slightly at the close. General Comments Three weekend events pu...

Chemophobes; Off-Expertise

Separating otherwise safe, concurrent uses of chemicals is as wrong a strategy as the Maginot Line. Organic matter is chemical matter at its base. Chemopho...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

With 27 MMT of exports, the EU wheat carryout stocks will be significantly tighter than last year. However, Western Europe's crop seems to be developing fa...

UN Publishes Sustainability Guide

Its premise is that traceability is one of the greatest tools for impacting sustainability. If traceability is going to develop, it has to either be mandat...

China In-Country Analysis

Due to the Chinese government's corn procurement in major production provinces, it seems probable that China's domestic corn prices have hit bottom and wil...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There have been several announcements from the Canadian grain trade recently about big new investments in grain handling infrastructure. There have been s...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has suggested that it is too early to predict the monsoon pattern and El Niño's effect, but it has also issued w...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trade Negotiations Struggles; Correction

An American tourist can see the sights in a half-dozen European cities within a week or less, yet USDA will need 6-7 months to look at the meat inspection...

House Passes Budget Resolution

The budget cuts domestic programs by $791 billion in the years 2016-2024, while it increases defense spending by $483 billion. The House passed its versio...

Market Commentary

It has been a very volatile week with Wednesday's USDA WASDE sandwiched in the middle and providing a bullish burst to corn and soybeans. General Comments...

The Corn Outlook is Changing

It will now take more than a record yield per acre to again start talking about 2014-15 corn ending supplies exceeding 1.5-1.6 billion bushels.We've gone f...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports indicate Chinese soybean importers have defaulted on 10 or more cargoes of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, fewer than in 2004 when buyers forfeited up...

STA; Corpse Logic; Condiments

TPA is dead, long live STA. When a concept is in trouble, public relations experts start rebranding. Evolving Acronyms TPA is dead, long live STA. When a c...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Meat and Livestock Overview

Retail beef prices have tested the consumer limit with 13 percent growth over the past year, while pork prices have been tempered by increased slaughter we...

Market Commentary

The market's tepid price action following yesterday's bullish (for soybeans and corn) WASDE was considered disappointing to market bulls, and long liquidat...

Dodd-Frank and CFTC Reauthorization

The House Ag Committee, which holds congressional oversight authority over the CFTC along with the Senate Ag Committee, decided to use the CFTC reauthoriza...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The main concern about Argentine soybeans this season relates to protein content. Current protein levels are below normal this harvest and that fact is mak...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The president of the Russian Grain Union said Russia's current financial problems may negatively impact the planting of grains. Ukraine has planted early s...

Market Commentary

The changes USDA and WOAB analysts made to their 2013/14 U.S. and world supply/demand estimates tracked closely with private expectations in terms of direc...

Cake; Meat; Gorilla

When it comes to stoking global economic activity, the 800-pound gorilla rattling some markets is the potential slowdown in China's growth. Late as Usual R...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

News UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTSFrance Export Cereals (FEC) has said that the country needs to exert more effort in developing Egypt's privat...

The April WASDE and Thereafter

Tomorrow's report could have considerable importance in market terms since non-commercials are so heavily invested on the long side of corn and soybeans.US...

Selective Science

Britain's Soil Society, the organization pushing organic agriculture in the UK, is apoplectic over a study in the British Journal of Cancer. Selective Scie...

Oilseed Highlights

It now appears the EU's 2014 rapeseed production will be up sharply from the last two years and approach the record 2009 crop. South American Soybeans Begi...

Market Commentary

Today's higher grain and soy prices reflected the market's expectation that tomorrow's WASDE will be bullish. General Comments Although trading of a number...

Advanced Biofuels Hearing In Senate

The need for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and other federal policies to support the industry and attract investment was a key theme of today's hearing...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's Red Sea Ports Authority (RSPA) has announced that it will be developing a new wheat import facility in Adabiya Port that is expected to handle abou...

A Look at Northern Plains Profit Potential

There are only three crops that show a positive net return, and barley is really not an alternative today.The table below is from the Carrington, North Dak...

Market Commentary

Soybeans again had a 20-cent trading range with prices lower most of the session and the old crop/new crop spreads losing some ground. There was talk of th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

China In-Country Analysis

13 Chinese government agencies, led by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), recently issued guidelines aimed at establishing a unified agricultural market me...

Railroads, 2014 Volumes and Court Case

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), rail cars spent twice the time between loading and unloading in the Midwest than last year d...

Impacts of Geopolitics and Technology

Improving Japanese farm labor misses the larger shift that needs to occur if the nation's agriculture is to survive liberalization under TPP.U.S. trade neg...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The corn plantings in Romania and Bulgaria have started under favorable weather conditions, and we estimate that the corn acreage will marginally decrease...

Ag Review: Crimea and it's Implications

Crimea River History suggests that geopolitical troubles have less impact on food production than fundamentals like the weather. Crimea: Present Situation,...

Minor Crop Acres

The issue with some of these very minor crops is that it doesn't take much of an increase or decrease in acreage to have a major impact on prices.We get so...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Prices of skimmed milk powder (SMP) have soared in India. There is a shortage as the government of India (GOI) did not regulate SMP exports and the deficit...

Clear as Mud; Biotech

EPA's recently proposed "interpretive guidance" on Clean Water Act regulations made for some fun in the agriculture community this week. Clear as Mud Norma...

Biodiesel Tax Credit

While the biodiesel tax credit has been extended retroactively in the past, it has had a unique impact.The Senate Finance Committee considered and passed i...

Market Commentary

Wheat turned decidedly weaker early this morning and dragged corn lower as well, while soybeans again traded both sides of unchanged much of the session. G...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

It is particularly interesting that the U.S. has not seen a drop-off in soymeal exports to the EU in 2013/14. U.S. Soymeal Export Sales and Shipments Very...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

PEDv Update; Hogs and Pigs Report

There is good news this week regarding the number of PEDv cases during the latter part of March, and there is seemingly some hog market reaction. PEDv Upda...

The Focus on High Frequency Trading

The topic of high frequency trading (HFT) of equities and commodities has become all the rage and raises several questions that generate a wide difference...

Market Commentary

Total U.S. corn export commitments have now reached USDA's latest forecast for all of 2013/14, actually 2 million bushels above it with five months of the...

Monkey See; Risks Ahead; TPP Rollercoaster

Former Lehman Brothers chief economist John Llewellyn notes that developing countries with sufficiently bad scores in terms of budget deficits, trade defic...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

South American soybean prices have been hesitant to follow futures markets higher. The result is that Argentine basis continued to weaken last week. Corn T...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 31 March 2014, Ukraine has exported 27.351 MMT of grain from the beginning of the market year, and preliminary forecasts indicate the country's grain...

Market Commentary

Since USDA's reports on Monday, the futures price action has given farmers the opportunity to unload some of their ownership and given users the opportunit...

Extenders; Mercantilists; Cotton; Geopolitics

A successful public forum by the WTO should be centered on why imports are actually good for everyone and emphasize that the focus cannot be solely on the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Primitivism; Disincentive; DETs

Researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) estimate that Argentina's biodiesel production would increase by 9.6 percent if the...

March Report Thoughts

That the trade's analysis of stocks and acreage turned out to be so close to USDA's survey results is another way of saying that yesterday's reports were s...

Oilseed Highlights

India's soybean processors are struggling to supply the domestic poultry and aquaculture markets with soymeal as they cannot source enough supplies. USDA R...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

There is a problem with Egypt's domestic grain silos project, financed with funds from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), that was intended to build 25 storag...

Market Commentary

The wheat market has backed off after its long bull run and has begun to cast weaker technical signals. This has caused some liquidation selling and the un...

Biodiesel Blenders’ Credit in Senate Bill, Out of House

With strong support for passing some extenders, the biodiesel tax credit and the cellulosic tax credit both have strong individual supporters who are likel...

Wrong; Imperfect; Smuggled and Quantified

A WTO agriculture committee meeting revealed why it will be difficult to get the Doha negotiations back on track. Naturally Wrong Recently installed Federa...

Argentina Petitions EPA for Biodiesel Pathway

Some Argentine producers have been through this process previously with sorghum that was imported and used to make ethanol in California.Argentina's biodie...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU has now allocated  22.7 MMT of wheat export licenses versus 15.1 MMT a year ago, and its wheat balance will be dangerously tight at the end of...

China In-Country Analysis

More crushers have suspended or slowed production in order to mitigate crushing losses. It is projected that soyoil prices will remain weak, but there is l...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

The market felt like wheat again became the short leg of the corn and soybean markets. If you don't trust a rally, you sell something else against it. Gene...

We Finally Have the Numbers!

You can plug any yield you like into these acreage estimates today and come up with bullish and bearish outcomes.Today's USDA quarterly stocks and planting...

Monday’s USDA Reports

The most important number in the quarterly stocks numbers will be the 1 March corn stocks, and the contest this year with planting intentions will be how m...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S.  soybean exports thus far in 2013/14 are now at 39.835 MMT and unshipped soybean export sales stand at 4.609 MMT for a total of 44.444 MT, ...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Corn was surprisingly firm today with wheat getting hammered and ahead of Monday's USDA reports that many analysts believe will be bearish. General Comment...

Unsweet; Smoggy Thinking; Retaliation

The sanctions battle between Moscow and Washington continues apace, and it seems only a matter of time before Russia starts arbitrary restrictions on impor...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The state government of Maharashtra has assessed the weather-related crop damage there at $1.63 billion and the area affected at about 1.8 million hectares...

Biofuel Roundup

Ethanol groups continue to push for EPA to increase the Required Volume Obligations (RVO), arguing that the agency was overly dismissive of E15 and E85 use...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

“Once More unto the Breach”

It seems fair to say that the corn market is at risk if, like last year, next Monday's corn stocks are much greater than anticipated.We hope that students...

PEDv Update

Smithfield, the largest pork processing plant in the U.S., announced that it has decided to run its Tar Heel, NC facility only four days a week and suggest...

Sour Trade Policy; Language Rationale

The same divided opinion that has stalled Doha for 13 years remains: defining whether development results from trade or from protectionism. Sour Trade Poli...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet and somewhat weaker overnight, but this changed during the day session when corn and wheat turned and headed higher. General Comments O...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine has exported 26.8 MMT of grains as of 24 March 2014 with a total grain export forecast of  33 MMT for MY 2013/14. Russian Grain Markets Planti...

Oilseed Highlights

It is rare that palm oil trades at a premium to soyoil, but a shortage is resulting in higher prices that are expected to lead to substantial increases in...

Market Commentary

Farmers are using the highest wheat prices they have seen in many months to price some of their anticipated production. General Comments The war of words b...

Trade Policy Hurdles

A Wilson Center panel on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) today painted a mixed picture on the outlook for an agreement. TTIP Regu...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There seems to be considerable demand to buy combos of Argentine corn and meal together as Argentine meal can help offset the price of corn, and both produ...

Strategic Interests Everywhere

One country's strategic interest is another's free enterprise.One of the challenges for U.S. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiators is achieving...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Moody's is reviewing the ratings for 10 Turkish banks with the trade expecting that there could be a general downgrade for all involved, affecting their in...

Market Commentary

It has been a day of light trading volume and somewhat more limited price movements with corn closing lower, soybeans closing higher and mixed closes for w...

Organic Fudge; EPA likes Ag; TTIP Quid Pro Quo

U.S. trade negotiators should view the EU's demand for recognition of its system of protected designations of origin (PDO) and protected geographical...

Global Derivatives Trade Rebounds - Slightly

As we all know, 2012 was a very difficult year for the derivatives world. The good news in 2013 is that the volume plunge was reversed.Detailed annual data...

Many More Cattle on Feed

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Soybeans, corn and wheat all rallied sharply on what looked like fund buying after Europe came to work today, which is when the fireworks started. General...

China In-Country Analysis

The Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC) recently urged the government to accelerate the sales of reserve grains and cottons. Borrowing for the st...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukraine's export program from its ports currently appears to be undisturbed by the crisis. However, several Russian banks reportedly have stopped providing...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Correction

The analysis piece entitled "March Madness" in the 21 March edition of Ag Perspectives contains two errors.The analysis piece entitled "March Madness" in t...

No Carry in Corn

If the smart money is betting that corn ending supplies will increase from 1.5 billion bushels this year to more than 2 billion next year, shouldn't we be...

Skewing Climate, Country and Organic

The European Commission's Trade and Investment Barriers Report 2014 takes issue with the U.S. approach of approving meat inspection equivalency on a countr...

Latest Consumer Trend in Food: Agricultural Land

The potential new trend now is land rights, or at least land acquisition. While not a primary issue for U.S agriculture yet, it is a new, complicating fact...

Market Commentary

Wheat behaved like the soy complex today. Yesterday's big reversals off the highs brought some fund selling and other profit taking, keeping all three whea...

Disconnect in Russia; Cellulosic Folly; Religion

Politicians in the West often do not understand market economics, so it is understandable that a former KGB spy uses fiat instead of making a business deal...

March Madness

March Madness is the term used to describe the NCAA national college basketball tournament because there are typically numerous upsets. It has now started...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rising domestic feed prices and GOI's ban on soymeal imports are expected to have a strong negative impact on India's poultry industry. Declining Indian Oi...

Risk in Russia; Fake Meat and Salt Water; Attribute Risk

One national security analyst said that success in the Crimean situation is not allowing Russia-U.S. relations to spin out of control, and yet it spiraled...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

The Risky World Soybean Market

U.S. soybean derivatives are essentially the only exchange-traded hedging vehicle available to the world soybean market. It works when circumstances allow...

Market Commentary

The overnight session did not prepare markets for the volatile price action that was the feature of today. General Comments President Obama announced more...

Oilseed Highlights

There have been reports that Chinese crushers are seeking to cancel or resell up to 30 cargoes of South American soybeans due to poor margins. Chinese Soy...

Milk Production, Exports and Margin Insurance

Dairy producers are entering a new era with milk exports at about twice their traditional level and about 50 percent greater than recent highs. This trend...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 March 2014Market TrendsPrices continued to increase, especially corn and wheat, due to the RUB depreciation and the Crimean po...

Market Commentary

The Fed's latest take on the U.S. economy is still seeing positive growth, although the rate of growth has slowed somewhat due in part to the severe winter...

Trade Policy Football; Dispute China; Quotable

TPA approval will require the Democratic Party elites to stand up to organized labor and the protectionists, much the way Main Street Republicans have begu...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's export capacity is not expected to be negatively impacted by the potential loss of ports in Crimea as they represent only a small percentage of t...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

CBOT futures may presently be rallying, but there is no demand for Brazilian soybeans from Chinese buyers. Soybeans: Brazilian Prices No Longer Inverted Th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Ag Block; Fertilizer BS; Crimea

Mega-retailer Walmart announced that it will require suppliers of agricultural crops to reduce fertilizer use on 20 million acres by 2020. Ag is Stumbling...

Rationing Demand for U.S. Soybeans

While total available 2013/14 U.S. soybean supplies are about 225 million bushels greater than the 2012/13 total, all of the additional supplies are being...

Food Inflation 2014

The rate of inflation for food increased 0.4 percent in February 2014, which was four times the core rate and the highest monthly increase since September...

Market Commentary

After sputtering about yesterday and again early in the overnight session, grain and soy futures markets bounced firmly higher today, but why is not exactl...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Buyers in the Levant, particularly Jordan and Syria, who source all of their corn from Ukraine are very concerned about a possible force majeure situation,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentine exporters are facing shipping delays because of a ship blockage on the Parana River and may soon also encounter a port workers' strike. Brazil Cr...

Ukraine And Russian WTO Implementation

Based on Russia's actions in 2013, there is seemingly enough reason for the U.S. to impose dispute resolution processes with that country in the WTO.The cu...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea market is firm as offers are difficult to find and also nervous about possible cancellations (force majeure). Milling Wheat The Black Sea mar...

Variable Daily Trading Limits to Arrive 1 May

We don’t know what all of this new math’s real impact will be on the markets.The CBOT Group continues to mess around with the futures markets. We’re never...

China In-Country Analysis

According to China Customs, soybean stocks in major Chinese seaports reached 5.57 MMT as of 10 March, an increase of 10,000 MT from the previous month. Oil...

Market Commentary

Today's immediate trader response to the current Black Sea situation was that the short-term risk was now off, and some of Friday's long positions were liq...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Miscellaneous Monday

Brussels has been increasingly providing administrative flexibility to EU member states, including the current effort to make the planting of biotech crops...

Interior Basis Levels Sick–the System is Plugged

Corn and soybean basis in the northern interior have plummeted to what might be all-time lows for several reasons.Demand for corn, wheat, soybeans, canola,...

TTIP Strategy; Aiding Ukraine

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations are hung up on tariffs, but Europe's aspiration for geographical indicators is an ar...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat continues to confound market analysts who are searching for a reason for its strong rally. General Comments Markets started the night session lower a...

House Ag Submits Views and Estimates to Budget Committee

The letter makes the case for protecting farm bill spending from any further cuts under the FY 2015 budget.Under the federal budget process, each of the co...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The extreme prevailing weather conditions continue to damage crops, leading to a belief that climate change is here to stay and that the El Nino factor wil...

Hindsight and Foresight

If the factors we point to in hindsight are largely responsible for the recent upturn in grain and soy prices, what about foresight? What is likely to happ...

Oilseed Highlights

Conab reduced its estimate for Brazil's 2014 soybean crop, disappointing the government that had predicted the country would for the first time have a larg...

Heifer Delivery on Cattle Contracts Coming

CME's research into the cattle trade discovered that while heifers are lighter, they are more uniform and higher yielding than steers and frequently have h...

Farm Bill Spending; Failed UN Employee

While FAPRI's Baseline Briefing Book predicts a spike in farm bill spending due to lower crop prices, its forecast could affect farm program signup. Farm B...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Concern over the Ukrainian situation is given as the reason for today's U.S. stock market plunge. Grain and soy markets chopped around on both sides of yes...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Total Argentine farmer selling of corn has now reached approximately 2.3 MMT, 10 percent of the expected crop. Although the harvest has been active this pa...

Market Commentary

Today's grain and soy markets saw a tug of war develop between the strength of wheat and the weakness of soybeans with corn caught in the middle. General C...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Slowing Trade Negotiations; Invasive

The impact of the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement means that TTIP and TPP will have to result in impressive trade policy improvements for the U.S...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The volume of grain dispatched from Ukraine's sea ports has not been negatively affected by the Crimean crisis. Meanwhile, Russia's agriculture ministry in...

Market Commentary

Although there does not appear to be any disruption in Black Sea grain shipments or in early spring planting in Ukraine so far, the situation remains a maj...

Updated Outlook for U.S. Corn

The big rally in corn futures prices during the past two months does stand out and has analysts asking themselves if this marching bull corn market can be...

Biodiesel Tax Credit: What Will Happen?

Biodiesel critics and advocates both noted that there was no proposal in the president's budget to extend the biodiesel blenders' credit. This has sparked...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Farm Bill Fatigue; Deceptions

One congressional assertion is that making agriculture a bigger tent will ensure that future farm bills go more smoothly. Farm Bill Cost No Issue The Congr...

Oilseed Highlights

As a result of the Argentine government's price controls on biodiesel, producers have decreased production and there is not enough available to supply the...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Ukraine's recent corn price increases have made the supply to North Africa much less competitive.  It appears that importers of larger vessels will pr...

China In-Country Analysis

China has recently issued a series of policies to promote family farms that could also mean that the freedom to transfer and consolidate land will be estab...

House Ag Appropriations Hearing

Overall, USDA is seeking a reduction in discretionary outlays of $2.638 billion from what it is projected to receive in FY 2014 under the continuing resolu...

Market Commentary

The actual WASDE numbers were a bit more positive than the trade estimate average, but that didn't slow the across-the-board selling. General Comments Mark...

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