USDA's APHIS has confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic H5N2 avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial turkey flock in Arkansas, located within the Missi...
Articles
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
A Rusagrotrans official indicated the effective export duty for wheat will significantly influence the structure of Russia's March grain exports with barle...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading started out slowly and without price direction. However, a later surge of buy orders in wheat and corn sent prices solidly into the green...
Biofuel Industry Fractures; Kobe Slimed
At least some parts of the U.S. advanced biofuels industry are asking for congressional legislation to change the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The reques...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
It seems that U.S. and Black Sea corn became more attractive to global buyers once Argentine prices increased into the mid-50s for the March-July period. T...
The March WASDE
The March WASDE always provides an interesting update on USDA's views about U.S. and world demand as well as its take on South American soybean and corn pr...
EU Balkanization of GMOs
The release of an extensive review of EU policy on GMOs is scheduled for later next month, and some of the pending proposals for future procedures will cau...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's ag ministry is reported to have been considering a plan to tax imported corn by as much as $65/MT. However, pressure from the poultry industry and...
Oilseed Highlights
Conab has dropped its estimates for Brazil's soybean crop and area planted to soybeans. However, the agency raised the domestic crush forecast because of a...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures was dominated by the U.S. dollar's climb to new heights, and the March WASDE released at noon (EDT) today did not...
Trade, Payrolls and Productivity
Imports and exports both declined steeply in January, driven by two key temporary factors. Meanwhile, like a plow horse, the progress in the labor market d...
Anticipating USDA's March WASDE
Analysts appear to be in general agreement regarding expectations for the March WASDE. The crop production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina might be more...
Selective Merchandising; Ethanol Dinged
While Robert Kenner's "Merchants of Doubt" is set to be released this Friday, the missed opportunity is to make a documentary about the merchants of small,...
Iowa Ag Summit
The main goal of the Iowa Ag Summit was to pin down GOP presidential candidates on their position regarding renewable fuels and the Renewable Fuel Standard...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU allocated 505,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 21.3 MMT versus 20.8 MMT at the same time in 2014. At the current pac...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
A stronger wheat market helped corn as did more talk that farmers are looking for ways to reduce corn costs because of low prices. Soybean and meal contrac...
The Silly Season of Weekly Crop Ratings
These rating numbers have become a trading game. The problem is they are simply not reliable indicators of crop yields and were really never intended to be...
Crude Oil and Corn
Globally, the supply of crude oil and petroleum products is on a trend to hit a record-high 2.83 billion barrels by midyear. The question remains as to wha...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Review: India's Possible Transformation
India's Possible Transformation Long a protectionist, backward country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making modest changes that will alter India's agric...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Agriculture received its fair share in the Modi government's first full budget with one of the main proposals targeting the creation of a national agricult...
Market Commentary
Talk that Ukraine was trying to double its corn exports to China in the next year plus the strong U.S. dollar brought more fund selling to corn today. Mean...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
It is possible for large traders to influence charts, and chart action has near-term importance. However, the soy complex currently does not have the same...
U.S. Wheat and World Demand
Two important factors that have limited U.S. wheat exports in 2014/15 have been large wheat supplies held by competing origins and the effect of the histor...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's USDA export sales report confirmed the continued seasonal trend in U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. Meanwhile, Brazil's wildca trucker...
TPA Reaction; EU Complexity
Reacting to Republican criticism that President Obama was squandering his opportunity to get Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) through the Congress, the Whit...
End of EU Dairy Quota to Create Beef Bubble
With the EU's longstanding dairy quota set to expire in April 2015, changes in dairy production as well as herd expansion are expected across a numbe...
Doha; Biotech; Energy
In the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations, several WTO members are apparently now receptive to dumping the "Swiss-formula" approach to agr...
Market Commentary
We are in a period in the crop cycles when markets feel they have pretty well counted up available supplies, and demand becomes the dominant variable.The s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There is some tension and uncertainty in the pricing dynamics for Paraguayan grain (corn and wheat) as farmers have refused to accept low flat prices for t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices rocketed again due to depreciation of the national currency (UAH). Some traders stopped buying as the UAH rate's further dev...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The USDA report on grain and feed for Israel was issued last week. As expected, it shows that the country is still almost totally dependent on grain import...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina has begun requiring monthly reports of silage bag sales to farmers and third party venders in response to a situation that is reducing the amount...
Market Commentary
Today's markets provided something for everyone, depending on when you looked. The corn market badly needs a story to tell, but it may not get one until th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
To Label or Not to Label
One issue of great importance to agriculture is the question of whether or not there should a mandate that foods produced from GM materials be labeled as s...
House Ag Review of SNAP
Many observers believe that this year's budget resolution, the first in five years if it comes to the House and Senate floors, will include reconciliation...
Squandering TPA; AGOA Deficit
U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) announced that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation will not be introduced before April...
Non-GMO Label; Green Politics
Currently, there are privately certified non-GMO labels, but there is a lack of transparency and potential bias in their structure. U.S. soybean growers no...
China In-Country Analysis
China's soymeal exports have increased noticeably in the past months, according to recent data, and the volume of soybeans that arrived in the country duri...
Agriculture and White House Push for TPA
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) issued a press release on Thursday of last week that noted all the major ag and processor g...
Market Commentary
May soybeans closed right at the 50-day moving average and at or near the day's lows. The next move might be whether or not the funds try to take that out...
Of Strikes and Other Soybean Issues
The political mood of the transportation and port industries might play a bigger role in the soybean supply and demand situation than record crop productio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Crop Revenue Update
Some producers are just starting to look at the price calculations and are stunned by the revenue coverage for 2015 crops versus the previous several years...
TPA Threatened; Food Threatened
The U.S. government's has announced a decision regarding water distribution this year to farmers in California's hyper-productive Central Valley that shoul...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's government revised the kharif corn production (October/November harvest) forecast from 16.07 MMT to 16.47 MMT. However, the trade and industry ther...
Market Commentary
Price changes in the soy complex today depended on how the market interpreted any news of the Brazilian truckers' strike. Wheat was inexplicably strong tod...
Appropriations Panel Reviews FSIS Budget Priorities
The FSIS budget has become one of the more delicate political issues in the past few years because of the 2011 Budget Control Act that reestablished the se...
Oilseed Highlights
While India's previous govenment began stalling the reglatory process for biotech crops in 2010, the victory of Prime Minister Modi's BJP party last year h...
Market Commentary
The soy complex ruled futures markets today, and press reports highlighting road blockages by Brazilian truckers ruled the soy complex. The corn and wheat...
Corn versus Soybeans
Although it may be an oversimplification, the annual spring planting decisions are widely viewed as a fight between corn and soybeans. However, a variety o...
Beef Prices Up on Limited Supply
According to USDA, Americans spent about 6.4 percent of their annual consumer expenditures on food in 2012. However, protein prices are rsing at a faster r...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Financial Regulation; TAA
While U.S. congressional leaders calculate how to reach agreement on Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), it is clear that melding U.S. and European agricultur...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
During the next month, South American farmers will have to start considering their planting intentions for the 2015/16 season. Ther market there, though, i...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As Ukraine's currency depreciates, most of the country's grain and oilseed prices have seen significant increases in the past week. Meanwhile, its MY 2014/...
Market Commentary
Export demand for U.S. soybeans has begun to lighten as Brazilian shipments get underway, and USDA reported a sale of 120,000 MT of HRW to Egypt under the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Politocrats; TPA Crunch; Chocolate Hooey
If the FAO wished to accomplish food security, it would promote improved governance, land rights, the availability of inputs, credit and transparent market...
Market Commentary
After yesterday's weakness, the corn market was due for a turnaround and had one for most of the session, thanks to the pull from the soybean market Genera...
China In-Country Analysis
A look at the dynamics that transpired in 2014 and the early part of 2015 with commentary and observations on factors shaping the way forward for this and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Stubborn Soybean Market
The outlook for soybeans does continue to appear fundamentally bearish. However, soy complex futures seem reluctant to acknowledge just how bearish the sit...
Oilseed Highlights
While Brazil raised its biodiesel blending requirement from 6 to 7 percent effective 1 December 2014, truckers there protesting against a diesel fuel tax a...
No Grease for Greece; Japan’s Next Farm Minister
Greece may have obtained a four-month extension in its fight with the European Union over a budget crisis, but vacating the euro is an uncertain solution f...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's tourism industry, which greatly affects the country's poultry sector, has improved since 2013. There are other factors, though, that are also impac...
Economic Report of the President: Climate Change and Ag
The report shows recent change in farm income over the past five years. For the future, it focuses heavily on the threats posed by climate change issues in...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Russian and Ukrainian wheat are offered significantly lower today versus two weeks ago, but they are still not competitive against French, German and Polis...
The Void Zone
The big problem for markets over the next six weeks is that there will be very little in the way of fresh news to discuss, especially of the bullish variet...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly firmer overnight, but that didn't last long in today's session. The soy complex is very resilient in the face of a record h...
California Cooperatives Petition for Federal Milk Pricing
USDA received a formal hearing request from California Dairies Inc., Land O'Lakes Inc. and Dairy Farmers of America Inc. to establish a Federal Milk Market...
Climate; Spring Planting; Sugar; Biofuel
The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee argued last week that sugars should be reduced from the diet and taxes imposed on sugar-sweetened beverages. Now...
TPA; TTIP; Antitrust
Food manufacturers that rely on major distributors to get their products to stores around the U.S. are breathing easier now that the Federal Trade Commissi...
Dietary Guidelines
One of the key developments is that while less consumption of red and processed meats is advised, recommendations regarding lean meat are excluded.That is...
Market Commentary
Markets were slightly lower overnight in light volume. This week's pattern of one day strong and the next day weak continued today after yesterday's streng...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India has announced the draft of a new health certificate that could allow the importation of frozen pork and pork products from the U.S. Currently, those...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Acreage Question
The question of what U.S. farmers will plant in 2015 is still looming very large over the markets. Most analysts have been assuming that acreage will decli...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA today revealed its estimates for U.S. crop plantings in 2015 at its annual Outlook Conference. In a bit of a surprise and in contrast to many other pr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Politicizing Nutrition
The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee has recommended the spawning of many mayors like former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg by suggesting that...
COOL Appeal Hearing This Week
The U.S. appeal over the WTO ruling against its country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) regulation is being heard in Geneva this week. It is likely the WTO will...
Market Commentary
The market viewed USDA's soybean acreage projection as bullish. The corn acreage number was not a real surprise. Corn futures gained about 6 cents, mostly...
Speculative Position Limits
Those who trade in grain and soy complex derivatives are very familiar with speculative position limits. There have been such limits in place since the 193...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine corn licenses for new crop have been issued for the time period from 15 March onward. However, early-seeded corn is presently being harvested, an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
After yesterday's strong market, trade in soybeans and corn was rather noncommittal during the overnight session. Outside factors did not help grain and so...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Grain Union announced that spring planting costs will rise at least 40 percent compared to 2014 because of certain other increasing expenses. R...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
A recent forecast of Turkey's grain imports indicates a noticeable change due to the effect of the winter weather on that country's wheat and barley produc...
Breadth of Ag Support
The number of Americans directly involved in food and agriculture continues to fall, but the sector still retains some influence on Capitol Hill as evidenc...
Oilseed Highlights
India's soymeal exports to date have been running far below the pace of a year earlier since October for a number of reasons. However, new data indicates J...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Contrary Grain Sorghum Outlook
There is good reason to devote attention to grain sorghums this year as exports have been soaring with China's huge demand and impacting prices.In USDA's m...
Drones in Agriculture
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has released its rules on the commercial use of drones. While the agriculture sector is expected by some to be on...
Market Commentary
Wheat and corn prices changed only modestly, but soymeal and soybean prices were sharply higher with the strong meal market leading the way. General Commen...
Climate; Japan Ag; Mad Cow; Apples
Departing White House aide John Podesta attacked the Republican-led Congress for failing to address global climate change. However, the blame lies squarely...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
It's been a long and quiet week in both the markets and market-making (or breaking) news, but here are some things to keep you up at night: Do you ever wo...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
It is now hoped that India's new government will be able to keep the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of fine cereals in check, and the states have b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
House Ag Committee Submits Views and Estimates to Budget Committee
The House Agriculture Committee's letter detailed the economic conditions in agriculture and was essentially a request for a pass from the budget cutting p...
Presidents' Day
Monday, 16 February is a U.S. holiday. The markets and our office will all be closed that day. Please note that the next publication date for Ag Pers...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Recent chatter that cotton acres will decline by 10-15 percent this year also suggests many of those will go to corn, leaving that crop's acreage nearly un...
Market Commentary
This was Friday the 13th and an impressive day, considering it came ahead of a long holiday weekend in the U.S. The only unlucky people seemed to be t...
WASDE
USDA revised the forecast for total red meat and poultry production compared with the January report, based on changes in all three species. WASDE...
Chlorine; Emissions; the Devil
Agriculture is being targeted for many ills ranging from obesity to water pollution. Now the Food and Agriculture Organization has piled on with a study cl...
Constant Change
If there is a single common thread that ties together agricultural crops and all of the varied economic activities that are based on them, it is the consta...
Oilseed Highlights
While the market is accounting for the pending huge Argentine soybean crop, uncertainty surrounds what farmers will do with the soybean stocks they current...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Trading in the grains and soy complex in both the overnight and day sessions was a low volume affair with prices visiting both sides. Meanwhile, weekly exp...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's wheat export duty that went into effect 1 February was intended to reduce export volumes and decrease domestic prices. However, neither of these g...
Devaluation Rationalized; Defining Export Subsidies
The U.S. Congress is demanding that currency manipulation be addressed, and now U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has some explaining to do. Currency Devalu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While Brazilian soybeans are presently more competitive than those at the U.S. Gulf for March-May, that spread is not large. Any appreciation of the real o...
Market Commentary
So far in 2014/15, the soybean futures market has been more impressed by the demand for soybeans and soymeal than by soybean supplies. However, it will pro...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More on Currencies; Fundamentals
Legislation that would classify "currency manipulation" as a countervailable subsidy under U.S. trade law could cause unnecessary collateral damage. More o...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The deputy chairman of the Cyprus Grain Commission (CGC) resigned last week and indicated certain steps that the organization will need to implement in ord...
The February WASDE
On a relative (percentage) basis, the biggest change in a U.S. grain or oilseed supply/demand estimate was for grain sorghums. However, perhaps the most cl...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Without new market-moving guidance of their own, grain and soy futures markets again came under the influence of outside factors as they so often have rece...
Crop Insurance under the Budget Gun
More budget scrutiny is anticipated in the coming year, given the focus on deficits and reduced spending as well as the over-budget projected costs of the...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's USDA supply and demand report included no major surprises for the soybean sector, but it was slightly positive. There were several revisions to U.S...
China In-Country Analysis
Several factors in conjunction with the late movement by China's feed mills to stock up for the holiday season suggest that the soymeal price will be chang...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Perfect Currency Storm; Battle of Studies
The U.S. dollar is on a long-term spike in value at the same time other economies are softening, and the timing couldn't be worse for Obama administration...
2015-16 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand is Bearish
Nearly every analysis including this one agrees on the 2015 U.S. and world soybean outlook. However, the jury is still largely out on at least one im...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU has allocated a higher number of wheat export licenses compared to a year ago at this time.This is not surprising, though, when considering certain...
Market Commentary
Corn led markets higher with wheat struggling, and soybeans traded as much as 8-9 higher at mid-morning, although they couldn't sustain those gains. Most o...
Eggs and California Lead to Interstate Commerce Bill
In the short term, California's 2008 egg-layer referendum seems to have widened the historical gap between that state's market and other parts of the count...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
With markets more active than would be expected for early February, there are several issues related to crops and trade that are worth considering.Ma...
Junk Science: Biotech and Pesticides
EU Commissioners failed to reach agreement on approval or disapproval of a dozen pending biotech traits. The fact that politics rather than science largely...
Ag Review: Future Price Action and the Bell Curve
Doomed or Muddling Through Global economic and political developments present many concerns, but there are a few less stark perspectives. The Year Ahead fo...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India currently grows only one GM crop, cotton. Experts now believe that the country should look beyond cotton as GM production has a proven domestic track...
Presidential Candidates to Appear at Ag Forum in Iowa
On 7 March, an agriculture policy forum for presidential candidates is scheduled at the Iowa State fairgrounds in Des Moines. While the event is targeted t...
Market Commentary
The markets started slightly lower last night but firmed as the session wore on and finished slightly higher. That trend was reversed once today's session...
Market Commentary
It has been a topsy-turvy week for grain and soy futures as well as energy markets as they react to a variety of contrary factors that pushed prices up, do...
Plummeting Pork Prices
Today's pork cutout value was the lowest since spring 2009. One reason is a drop in cases of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv), but there are also oth...
A Sad but Inevitable Day
Advancing technology made the end of open outcry pit trading of futures inevitable, but it will still be sad to see such a historic, colorful era conclude...
Ag as Poster Child; Booze Tax
Members of Congress largely representing agricultural districts may be few in number, but the sector is a poster child for what many in the body see as the...
Oilseed Highlights
South Africa's farmers have planted a record area to soybeans this year in response to strong domestic demand, which has been rising and is expected to gro...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia has exported 22.7 MMT of grains as of 28 January and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, 31 percent more than during the same period in MY 2013/14. Th...
U.S.–EU Debate; Ag and the Environment
U.S. and EU negotiators meeting this week on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership have plenty on the agenda. A major hurdle continues to be i...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Market Trends: 26-30 January 2015During the week in review, wheat prices moved in different directions as prices for other grain crops increased (in RUB ex...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soy complex prices fell and gave back half or more of yesterday's gains as trader's recognized that supply/demand fundamentals for soybeans are as bearish...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Rather stable corn futures contracts at the CBOT of around $4.00 per bushel and present uncertainty about the ability to export are causing corn basis to w...
Budget Surprises; LDP’s TPP Plan
The Obama administration's budget once again proposes reorganizing certain government functions, but also seeks to increase funds for a few agricultural-re...
Oilseed Highlights
The government of Indonesian President Joko Widodo has proposed more than tripling the subsidy for biodiesel in order to expand production and help the pal...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Details on Ag Proposals in the President’s Budget
Two of the changes to USDA spending programs included in President Obama's proposed FY 2016 budget are related to the federal crop insurance program and co...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
According to reports from Russia, wheat cargoes to Egypt's GASC are delayed in the ports there and exporters/traders will now be liable for the new Russian...
Market Commentary
Recent increases in open interest in corn, soybeans and wheat have suggested that new noncommercial shorts had entered the market. Today's sudden rally in...
One View of the South American Soybean Outlook
Much like the U.S., Brazil produces soybeans over a huge land mass, virtually assuring that every crop has developed under a variety of weather conditions...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian corn is under heavy pressure. At current prices, it is more competitive against U.S. origin to Asia, although not by much. The last trades to Sou...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The soy complex opened higher this morning despite overnight news that China's latest PMI number was below 50 for the first time in two-and-a-half years. E...
TTIP Skepticism; Food Movement
Supposed horizontal regulatory principles are on the TTIP agenda and include an earlier U.S. proposal for handling SPS issues. However, the EU has imposed...
President Submits Budget for FY 2016
The budget was very much in line with the proposals in President Obama's State of the Union address and included a number of new tax proposals that w...
China In-Country Analysis
On 1 February, China's central government released its annual guidelines for the domestic economy and key policy reforms, known as China's "No.1 Central Do...
Crop Revenue Insurance Pricing Started Today
Farmers previously knew well in advance of the planting season that they would have big per acre revenue guarantees from the insurance program regardless o...
U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Outlook
Those analysts with a bearish slant, probably representing the higher percentage today, will at least use a big yield estimate and are also likely to have...
Market Commentary
Much of the world was lower on this last trading day of January. Soybean and soymeal futures were down double-digits off and on as fund liquidation and mor...
Farm Operating Loans and Livestock Loans Up on Down Market
The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank released its report on farm lending for the fourth quarter of 2014, which showed non-real estate loans are up about 50...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's 2013/14 vegetable oil imports grew by 12 percent to a record high of 11.82 MMT and are expected to rise further. GOI has raised the import duties o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Petroleum; Europe’s Future
There is a terrific mess in Europe, and the attitude of the newly-elected Greek government that it must be granted debt relief is posing a massive challeng...
New Dairy Margin Protection Program Costs
The CBO's latest 10-year budget baseline estimates total costs of the Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMPP) have changed significantly from the April 2014...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Environment; Biotech; Biofuel; Beef and Pork
U.S. EPA is working on a plan to slow the adaptation by corn rootworms to corn that has been genetically modified to contain Bacillus thuringiensus (Bt). M...
Oilseed Highlights
The U.S. biodiesel industry and oilseed producer organizations are livid at the Obama administration for its announcement this week that it would facilitat...
Trading Ranges
The corn and wheat futures markets have clearly abandoned their trading ranges of last fall and are trying to find new ones at some lower level.There are a...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soyoil all fell to new lows for the month. The day session at least had USDA's weekly export sales report to trade on, although how much in...
Market Commentary
The strong U.S. dollar has been one of the factors pressing on commodity prices (including grains and the soy complex) and certainly was part of the reason...
Competitive Devaluation
Both Democrats and Republicans in congressional hearings this week expressed disappointment that currency manipulation policy has not been made part of the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's Agrarian Policy and Food Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko signed a Memorandum of Understanding with grain exporters on 27 January. The parties agreed th...
Brazil: The Year of the Soybean
Not very often do North and South America enjoy such similarly beneficial weather for spring planted crops during the same crop cycle as has been seen duri...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmers are considering how to be strategic next season with low domestic prices and limited credit. During the past few crop cycles, they switch...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Biding time seems to be the dominant strategy within grain markets. Short-term strategies to scalp limited returns are expected to influence day-to-day act...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey is said to have imported as much as 200,000 MT of EU rapeseed in recent months with more expected after it rejected stocks from the Black Sea when G...
Oilseed Highlights
The March soybean futures contract price fell by 8.75 cents/bushel today, apparently as a result of USDA reporting an exporter's cancellation of a 120,000...
CBO Issues 10-Year Outlook on Budget and Crop Prices
The report includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law over the next 10 years. It is of course a tall order to...
Good Vibes; Obvious Outcomes
Unsurprising to those in the rice trade, Bangkok is now indicating that it will be dumping millions of tons of surplus rice onto the world market. PLC Tol...
Europe Split; New WTO Path
Without ambition, countries will use platforms other than the WTO to negotiate trade liberalization (aka Trans-Pacific Partnership, etc.). Too much ambitio...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Strategie Grains has raised its EU wheat export estimate from December by 2.1 MMT to 29.3 MMT (unchanged from last year) due to Russia's export restriction...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures were slightly lower much of the night session, but reversed that trend and traded slightly higher most of today's session. The only bullish...
Ethanol Industry Seeking E-30 under New Fuel Standards
According to the EPA, the petitioners' primary interests are to increase ethanol use and protect or improve their competitive position, which it maintains...
China In-Country Analysis
China's 2014 sorghum imports increased more than fivefold to 5.78 MMT from 1.08 MMT in 2013, according to China Customs. Demand was driven in part by the i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Peek at Weather
The major concern isn't with 2015 crop production across the Corn Belt and northern Plains, but with what could occur in 2016 and 2017. That apprehension i...
U.S. Farm Program – the Gift That Keeps on Giving
The new farm program offers a much higher level of income protection than previously and will therefore offer a greater safeguard from an extended bear mar...
House Agriculture Committee’s Organizational Meeting
New Chairman Mike Conaway (R-Texas) laid out his agenda for the committee and has reorganized a number of subcommittees to better suit his announced priori...
CFTC; Hemp; Sugarcoating
Who could be against industrial hemp production? After all, the U.S. consumes more hemp products than any other country, and yet it is the only major indus...
Market Commentary
Corn had been trading unchanged to lower overnight, but the export sales numbers did bring some buying to this morning's opening.The collapse in the euro,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's poultry sector has exerted tremendous pressure on the government to create new rules that would prohibit imports of U.S. chicken leg quarters as th...
Oilseed Highlights
Data released by China's General Administration of Customs indicated the country imported 32,005,374 MT of soybeans from Brazil, its top supplier, in CY 20...
Market Commentary
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a quantitative easing (QE) program to begin in March. What was not expected is its size. Meanwhile,...
Court Case Precedent on Manure Management
In a district court case decided last week in the state of Washington, a judge applied the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) to dairy manure fo...
Non-Tariff Barriers; Doha Nowhere
WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo thinks that heads of delegations are going to come up with a Doha work plan by July, but the gulf remains too wide to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China and Grain Sorghum Excitement
Much of grain sorghum's sudden rise in China is due to government policies, announced or not, designed to protect the price of domestic corn production.If...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Only 6,855 MT of 5th grade wheat were bought in the course of Russia's market intervention trading session on 20 January. The volume of grains available fo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine wheat acreage has been in steady decline during the past few years due to government efforts to control domestic bread prices. This has depressed...
Market Commentary
Technically, the corn market has moved away from the upward trend that has prevailed since October and appears to be looking for a new lower trading range...
EU Science; ISIS Wins; Protection Up and Down
The newly sworn-in U.S. Senate voted this week to table (against) a "Buy America" requirement as part of the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline...
Market Commentary
The grains and soy complex started out this holiday-shortened week weaker across the board in overnight trade. Soybeans continued to stay that way, but cor...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
MENA wheat importers report that Russia is making wheat exports more difficult in advance of its new export duty set to begin 1 February. The expansion of...
Oilseed Highlights
While soymeal demand is down in Europe for several reasons, USDA has surprisingly increased its forecast for EU soymeal consumption in 2014/15 by 400,000 M...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
SOTU; Ethanol; Russia; Rhetoric
It must be something about the position, because UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Director General José Graziano da Silva is now making the same...
President Obama to Deliver State of the Union Address
A few items likely to be covered tonight in the SOTU that are of more direct interest to agriculture are the proposed treatment of capital gains in the pre...
Corn Market Anomaly
Noncommercial traders still retain a net long of about 244,000 contracts as of 13 January. This is a huge long position, given that the fundamental outlook...
Market Commentary
The important news in the soy complex today was USDA's announcement of the cancellation of 285,000 MT of U.S. soybean sales to China. No one knows if this...
Tax Reform Assigned to Senate Working Groups
The working groups are to submit their reports to the Finance Committee by May 2015. However, it will be surprising if this process moves quickly, if at al...
Money; Cuba; TPP
Politicians and financial market players are fond of blaming one another, but they are really quite similar. Each believes they should be perpetually takin...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India's 2014/15 wheat production is expected to exceed last year's, its areas under pulses and oilseeds have been reduced. This is expected to have f...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Long Week in the Markets
The week began with the Monday release of USDA's reports, which were not as bearish corn or as bullish soybeans as many had expected. Today's announcement...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were modestly higher overnight ahead of USDA's weekly export sales report and the National Oilseed Processor Association's (NOPA's) D...
Too Much Wheat, Too Little Demand
Large production increases and limited demand growth lead to enlarging stocks, and that is what is happening to world wheat supplies as well as those of th...
WASDE
The January WASDE, released this week, included the updated year-end 2014 estimates showing red meat production up from the December report and supported s...
WUS; Jones Act; BsAs
The U.S. EPA released a 408-page technical report detailing 1,200 peer-reviewed scientific studies that it believes justifies its proposed regulation of mo...
Oilseed Highlights
Insufficient rainfall is becoming a growing concern for soybean farmers in the Brazilian states of Goias and Mato Grosso. Meteorologists say this may no lo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
USDA data released on Monday confirmed that global supplies are abundant, and any prospect of South American farmers soon being rescued by escalating price...
Biofuel Policy; TTIP Trouble
Falling oil prices will redistribute money away from producers and to consumers, but the question is whether biofuel policy adjusts in a timely and correct...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
It was announced that Ukraine is not going to introduce restrictions on grain exports and that the total MY 2014/15 grain export volume may reach 33...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn futures prices tumbled about a dime on bearish technical signals and growing stocks of ethanol that will likely lead to lower production and therefore...
Understanding the U.S. Crude Oil Market
The boom in U.S. crude oil production has been a game changer in terms of handling and refining crude oil as well as supply. This is impacting the market a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The day session was not quiet as traders refined their collective responses to yesterday's series of reports from USDA. The results were wide trading range...
After the Reports, What Now?
Pondering the combined reports as a whole, we cannot escape the bottom-line feeling that their overall tone is bearish. However, there are several "passage...
Oilseed Highlights
The sharp rise in China's soybean imports for CY 2014 supports the view that hundreds of millions of Chinese are still increasing their consumption of anim...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Egyptian government is discussing the reopening of government-owned dairy operations that were all but totally closed down in 2008 after years of falli...
Two Views Times Two
The European Parliament finally voted into law the right of EU member states to deny the planting of biotech crops otherwise approved for safety by the Bru...
USDA Reports Send Mixed Signals
Many analysts were expecting smaller harvested acres of corn and soybeans. We received the opposite today with an increase in both of those as well as a su...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight in extremely light trading volume ahead of today's 12 pm (EST) USDA reports. The direction of the markets and the volume of tr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Looking At Trade: Labor Strikes and Bearish Oil Impacts
The big story in the U.S. 2014 trade balance came in two chapters with the first being the labor dispute at the West Coast ports and the second concerning...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market is still trying to evaluate the impact of Russia's export tax that is scheduled to be implemented 1 February, and exporters are reluctant to mak...
China In-Country Analysis
With a number of Chinese processors preferring imported corn over domestic due to the former's lower price and higher quality, there are many applications...
Beaks with Teeth; Sugar Beating
The newly announced Chinese ban against imports of poultry and eggs from the U.S. due to a high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the Pacific N...
Whipsawed Meat; Sinking Ship; Border Success
It is easy to focus on headline issues like the failed U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) requirement, but U.S. and Mexican officials this week noted s...
Market Commentary
Markets were quietly mixed in overnight trade, and that pattern held through much of today's session as well. Traditional funds are estimated to be long 51...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has expressed the industry's concern that some mills will soon file for debt reconstruction due to difficulties p...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA Report Preview
The quarterly corn stocks estimate is the one that always seems to hold unexpected news for the market. Surprises in this report will be as significant as...
State Court, House and Senate Committees All Boost Keystone
Today the House of Representatives passed a bill to authorize construction of the Keystone XL pipeline just hours after the Nebraska Supreme Court upheld t...
Counterintuitive; Wrong Crop; Barriers
A Pew Research survey finds most Americans support free trade as good for the country, though only a minority believes that it creates jobs. There is a mor...
Looking Back, Looking Ahead
As we transition from one year to the next, it has become our habit to make some not-so-fearless forecasts for the upcoming year. With a bow to intellectua...
Oilseed Highlights
India's Solvent Extractors Association yesterday released protein export data for December 2014. The report indicated the month's soymeal exports totaled 1...
Market Commentary
The wheat market was the loss leader again with old crop contracts of Chicago and KC wheat falling 11-12 cents to the lowest level in about five weeks. The...
Pork Production Up in 2015
Hog producers have already farrowed 3 percent more sows this past fall. The larger number of young pigs will begin to move pork production above the previo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bust; Feints; Change; Thankless
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has reportedly launched an effort to sustainably produce quinoa on the Arabian Peninsula by 2021, no doubt attracted t...
Market Commentary
Corn futures closed down almost 9 cents, giving back almost all of Monday's entire rally. Falling ethanol production and dropping margins weighed on the ma...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine exporters are again facing the same problems they encountered during the past two seasons that resulted from selling large volumes of feed barley...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
News UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTSEgypt's Ministry of Supply has announced that the maximum moisture level for imported wheat will remain uncha...
Oilseed Highlights
It is quite uncommon for rain to fall in India's Rajastan state in the winter. However, reports indicate precipitation was received in several areas where...
Biotech; Meat; Forex
China is considering a food safety change that would require the labeling of foods containing genetically engineered components, banking that public awaren...
Market Commentary
What is interesting is the extent to which grain and soy futures appear (so far) to be mostly unmoved by the current outside market turmoil. The soy comple...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A View of U.S. Corn Production and Stocks
No matter what corn yield and production numbers one might use for the U.S. 2014 crop, they will set new records by wide margins. This crop shows the kind...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's Ministry of Supply has announced that the maximum moisture level for imported wheat will remain unchanged at 13.5 percent. It also said that the co...
Oilseed Highlights
It is quite uncommon for rain to fall in India's Rajastan state in the winter. However, reports indicate precipitation was received in several areas where...
The EPA Considers Sorghum for Cellulosic
The National Sorghum Producers (NSP) had asked that the EPA conduct an evaluation to determine which biofuels category (including cellulosic ethanol) could...
Oil Prices: Looking Beyond the Bears
Ever since the late November OPEC meeting where the Saudis pledged specific efforts to stem the growth in light-tight U.S. oil production, the bears have b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Nigeria; Mexico
The People's Democratic Party (PDP) has governed Nigeria since rule by the military ended 15 years ago. However, luck may run out on the PDP and the reelec...
China In-Country Analysis
In a surprising turn of events, Chinese regulators recently lifted the ban on U.S. DDGS that had been set in place in October over concerns regarding the d...
Weather, Where Art Thou?
The markets are still not very worried about world weather, but some concerns have been expressed occasionally about the condition of the world's winter wh...
Market Commentary
The soy complex continues to defy the calls for its demise. No one is certain what triggered today's round of buying, but it was effective and pushed soybe...
Market Commentary
The sharp breaks in the soy and wheat markets seemed to overpower any friendly news in the corn market. The technical outlook for corn has also turned bear...
Barbarians Indeed
The barbarians, in this case, are the institutional investors who are increasingly turning their attention and money toward agriculture and, specifically,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Meat and Livestock Overview
The newly organized North American Meat Institute (NAMI) has charged the federal Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee with dropping a recommendation to in...
Liberalize; Disparate; Uniform; Will Not Happen
The Nikkei is reporting that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement could entail uniform tariffs on agricultural trade across all 12 countries with...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Since India lost the case at the WTO regarding the import ban on U.S. poultry, there has been pressure on the Ministry of Commerce and Department of Animal...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
An initial estimate of Russia's 2014 grain and leguminous crop harvest indicates that it should surpass the 2013 total. Meanwhile, implementation of the ne...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Futures trading on this last day of the year saw Chicago wheat fall 10-12 cents. Corn futures dropped more than 9 cents – a major move for the corn market...
TPP Signals; Cheers via Trade
The Nikkei reports that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe would like to visit the United States in late April or early May. It notes that the Obama White...
Oilseed Highlights
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has announced it will conduct a one-year review of the monarch butterfly to determine whether it warrants protection und...
The Russian Wheat Outlook
The questions now to be answered are how much wheat will Russia export by the end of January and how much of the world's 2014/15 wheat demand, which it pot...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's Chamber of Tourism reports that a side effect of the Russian situation is a 30 percent decline in hotel bookings. The decrease will have a serious...
Market Commentary
Having dropped more than 50 cents from recent highs, the wheat market is sending bearish technical momentum signals that seem likely to continue. The corn...
Meat: End-of-Year Cold Storage and 2015 Trends
USDA released its cold storage report yesterday afternoon with a few surprises for the trade, while today's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report indicates that p...
Europe; Russia; Lobbyists; Food Safety
The Financial Times (FT) has frequently ranted against the austerity measures imposed on other EU members by Germany, but also voices skepticism about the...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed in the overnight session with corn steady, while wheat and soybeans were higher. Volume was again light overnight but picked up consider...
Another Volatile Year
The bearish news was all on the supply side. 2014 was a year of record world crop production, which couldn't have come at a better time with world supplies...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
2015: Policy Debates Ahead
The farm bill debate in 2014 focused more on efforts to cut food assistance to the poor than on program benefits to farmers. That will change in the future...
China In-Country Analysis
Following its previous efforts to limit corn imports and unwind the large surplus of domestic stocks, China's National Reform and Development Commission (N...
California Egg Restrictions Go into Effect in 2015
California's infamous egg-layer referendum of 2008 comes home to roost on New Year's Day as all eggs sold in the state must comply with the associated regu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
NEI Deadline; India’s Games
The National Export Initiative (NEI) launched by President Obama in his 2010 State of the Union address failed to double American exports (up around half t...
Market Commentary
The impact of Russia's significant tariff on wheat exports that was announced is yet to be determined. Markets opened steady to higher with soybeans up 3-5...
USDA Implementing Crop Insurance Yield Exclusion
According to USDA, nearly 80 percent of all acres and liability that are covered in the federal crop insurance program will be eligible for YE beginning in...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The long-standing demand from the Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India to boost the duty for crude and refined edible oils was met by the governme...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Recent warm weather across the Northern Hemisphere has left zero snow cover across nearly all of the winter wheat production regions of the U.S. and Black...
Market Commentary
The volume of overnight trade appeared to be quite low as one might expect just before a major holiday. Markets were mixed overnight with wheat and soybean...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
India; AGOA
In its latest report on India's trade policy, the ITC notes that the number of U.S. companies adversely affected by restrictive Indian measures has jumped...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A large part of Chinese soybean needs for February will be covered by U.S. origin, which will reduce the demand for Brazilian stocks. That is not good as a...
India; AGOA
In its latest report on India's trade policy plan, the ITC notes that the number of U.S. companies adversely affected by restrictive Indian measures has ju...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian grain market was influenced by several very serious factors during the week in review. These included the sharp ruble devaluation, a suspension...
Market Commentary
Overnight and again during the day session, grain and soy futures traded both sides in light holiday-type volume. The corn market was the most placid with...
A Look Backward at 2014
2014 will surely go down as one of the most memorable years in U.S. crop production history. Planted corn acreage in 2014 fell almost 5 percent below the p...
U.S. and Mexico Cut Deal on Sugar Case
Once the agreements are signed, the Commerce Dept. will suspend the existing AD and CVD cases against Mexican sugar without issuing final determinations on...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey is now the world's largest exporter of wheat flour, shipping as much as 2 MMT per year. Although quite a bit of that flour goes to Asia, its two mai...
CFTC Rulemaking; Monopsonists, Bureaucratize
For years, the leadership of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) complained that it could not do its job due to inadequate budget resource...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of Europe indicate the EU's ban on the use of neonicotinoid insecticides is likely to result in a substantial decrease in its 2015 rapeseed pro...
Obama Cuba Initiative to Face Congressional Hurdles
If this initiative is to move forward in any form from diplomatic relations to some sort of trade expansion over the next two years (the duration of the re...
China and Sorghum, Etc.
What analysts have missed, or at least ignored, is that China replaced U.S. corn imports with U.S. sorghum over the past 12 months on an almost one-for-one...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn had another day of light volume and not much actual price movement. It sat back and watched as wheat traded double-digit gains and then backed off to...
Sugarplums; Turkey
Anti-Big Ag campaigners are quick to blame food and the industry for obesity, but there are two fundamental sides to the equation: calories in and calories...
China In-Country Analysis
It is clear that China's new administration continues to consider the nation's agricultural development and reform to be its top priority as adjustments in...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India is committed to a continued investment in basic science and adherece to stated government policy, it seems that the NGOs are undermining the re...
New Senate Ag Committee
In the 113th Congress, the Democratic majority enjoyed a two-seat advantage on this committee with 11 spots to the minority's nine. That ratio will switch...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight with wheat leading the way down after yesterday's technically poor closes. Corn again had a very docile trading day, considerin...
JCCT Delivers; Stories of 2014 and 2015
The outcome of this week's U.S.–China Meeting of the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) is even better than hoped. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack's...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
An Early Peak at USDA Baseline
It's important to remember that the numbers released yesterday are really just snippets from the baseline projections that will be released in full in Febr...
The Cuban Détente
Since the embargo and economic isolation have failed, it seems like a good time to try economic engagement instead, especially given that there will be som...
Hijinks; Misfueled; Green; Hope
India proudly announced its launch of the 630-ton geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle known as the MKIII. However, the government could better have use...
Market Commentary
It was a day of consolidation for a number of commodity markets, some of which took place after wild price swings. The wheat market added more risk premium...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Canadians Using Hot Rhetoric over COOL
As the Canadian Cattlemen Association has indicated, any retaliatory tariffs will be targeted toward products from states where legislators and lawmakers h...
Oilseed Highlights
Because the U.S. has an overwhelming share of the soybean, soymeal and soyoil imports by other countries in the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico, ther...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
During this week, Brazil finally started to weaken the real (Brazilian currency). The market had expected this move after the elections, and farmers were i...
Lies; Speculation; Substitution; Cuba
CFTC Chairman Timothy Massad made the bold claim at a Senate hearing this week that his agency would develop "bright-line rules" in its pending position li...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
It was reported on 15 December that Russian grain exporters have suspended the signing of any new grain export contracts due to the recent RUB rate fluctua...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
List of 40 RFS Reform Ideas Released
The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) staff constructed the options into a list, noting that the effort was directed at providing reform and not repeal...
Market Commentary
Led by KC HRW, U.S. wheat futures prices charged higher on word that Russia was attempting to restrict grain exports by denying quality certification on ex...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Morocco's grain imports for the June-October period are up by 80 percent against last year at a total 2.2 MMT including 750,000 MT of wheat and 1.1 M...
Oilseed Highlights
France's Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll today announced the government there plans to spend about 150 million euros per year between now and 2020 to...
Market Commentary
The corn market tried to follow wheat's early strength but could not generate enough serious buying interest to make a go of it. Soybeans were weak all day...
Currencies and Other Stuff
The steady growth of the U.S. economy has caused the U.S. dollar to appreciate against the currencies of other nations such as Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, Arg...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Organic Shakedown; RFS Reform; Hostile
Both ethanol supporters and its oil industry opponents panned a set of reforms to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposed by the Bipartisan Policy Cente...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Approximately 15 percent of Bulgaria's intended wheat acreage could not be planted due to excessive rains, and the 2015 crop will be 4 MMT at best (v...
Market Commentary
Corn traded higher most of the session on more confusion over whether China has or soon will announce the approval of the MIR162 hybrid. Meanwhile, none of...
China In-Country Analysis
The falling soybean stocks in China's ports and the delayed arrivals have allowed crushers to firm up their soymeal prices. However, producers' oil and mea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Latest 2015 Crop Budget Worksheets
The projected 2015 net returns per acre, even though still negative for spring wheat and corn and barely positive for soybeans, are far better than they we...
Funding Bill: Final Ag Numbers and News
The agricultural provision of the appropriations language provides $20.6 billion in discretionary funding – $305 million below the FY 2014 enacted level. I...
Market Commentary
Markets were very active overnight in very good trading volume for the night session. Prices turned decidedly higher when Europe came to work, reportedly o...
New Republican House Ag Committee Members
Incoming House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-TX) has reorganized a number of subcommittees to better suit his announced priorities...
Markets Don’t Feel Like the Holidays
Nearly every market analysis or presentation seems to start with the assessment that the "world is awash" in grains and oilseeds. It is now mid-December, a...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a higher procurement price of molasses-based ethanol in the range of $2.94-3.00/gallon for th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Futures Position Limits Redux
Clearly, the CFTC is having difficulty fitting commercial hedging practices and the long-standing hedging exemption for grain markets into its proposed new...
Oilseed Highlights
China's Ministry of Commerce is currently indicating the country's December soybean imports will be about 6.8 MMT, but that number is far below the likely...
Compromise and Trade
In essence, the U.S. government has just successfully made a $1.1 trillion, 1,603-page piece of sausage nicknamed the "CRomnibus." Those hoping for accompl...
Market Commentary
After a few days of hesitation, technically-trading funds returned to the grain and soy markets today. They were most active in the corn market where they...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Federal Government to Stay Open
The funding bill included a directive for USDA and the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to report recommendations to Congress no later than 1 May 2015 that...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina's new crop wheat is currently being harvested. Although it is the least expensive and best alternative for Brazilian millers, they have decided t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
649,400 MT of grain were exported from Ukrainian sea ports between 1-7 December, while 429,100 MT were exported from Russian sea ports during the same peri...
Market Commentary
Any bullish impact from USDA's higher 2014/15 soybean export estimate and lower soybean carryout was swept away by Conab's forecast that Brazil's soybean c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Atlantic versus Pacific
German Minister of Agriculture Christian Schmidt cautioned a Washington audience that his countrymen lack confidence in American production practices such...
Market Commentary
After trading slightly lower overnight, corn and soybean prices both encountered enough buying about midway through the day session to carry them to gains...
Crude Oil Exports
Although oil state lawmakers of both parties support the lifting of the crude oil export ban, the rank-and-file non-energy state Republicans are more cauti...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil recently imposed a 7 percent blending mandate for combining biodiesel with petroleum diesel. The higher production would increase the use of soyoil...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Reports from Turkey indicate that the government is now strictly enforcing GMO import rules, which have resulted in the rejection of several vessels of U.S...
Anticipating the December WASDE
Without fresh production estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans, the December WASDE only offers some adjustments to those estimates for elsewhere around the...
Immigration; Derivatives; IT
While most migrant labor was previously focused in the specialty crops area, the whole agricultural sector has become more broadly dependent on workers tha...
Trade Week; Sugar Inequality
Washington has been captured by several special interests through the years but perhaps none as successfully against the odds as sugar producers. Trade Non...
Market Commentary
March corn spent the day drifting lower from the daily high of $3.9975/bushel to close about 10 cents lower. However, it is premature to interpret this pri...
China In-Country Analysis
China rolled out several agriculture reform policies regarding land use, seed development and agriculture insurance over the past two weeks as the country'...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The feed wheat price rally (approximately $30 in one month) is motivating consumers in the EU and the major Mediterranean destinations to increase their co...
Ag Review: Transportation Outlook 2014
Limits on Agriculture and Transport The upcoming U.S. election is occurring amidst geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic malaise, but there is a pan-Paci...
Quick Look at the FY 2015 Federal Budget So Far
According to the CBO's monthly budget review for November 2014, the federal budget deficit was $181 billion for the first two months of the new fiscal year...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Notes from the IAOM
No one was outright bullish about wheat. The consensus was cautionary heading into 2015 because of the potential production problems that "might" occur.I w...
Wheat – Part II
How great have world wheat crops been? Russia, Ukraine, China, India and Canada have all had record yields in at least two of the last three years. However...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's annual edible oil demand stands at 18-19 MMT with an annual growth rate of approximately 4 percent. Last year's imports totaled 11.3 MMT, but that...
Market Commentary
Today's price action in March corn looks strong. That contract seems to be in the process of rejecting recent market discussion about the formation of a he...
Oil Prices Changing Incentives
The news is full of stories about falling oil prices. While energy is a key component of the economy, high and low prices simply switch economic incentives...
Friends; Surprise; Okay
While Chinese government officials announced an effort to reduce fertilizer and pesticide use by 2020 in an attempt to decrease pollution, the U.S. EPA was...
Market Commentary
Triggered by unexpectedly large export sales and helped along by fund buying, corn futures closed up more than 7 cents and near session highs. Soybea...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters last week sold substantially more soybeans and soymeal than analysts surveyed by Reuters predicte...
Politics, Supply and Demand
Whenever crop prices fall uncomfortably low, there are always those who argue that the U.S. government should return to some sort of supply management prog...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Immigration Clampdown in Canada Impacting Pork Exports
Changes made to Canada's temporary foreign worker plan in June are having a negative impact on the meat packing industry and export expansion. This is due...
Argentina Uses Banks to Squeeze Farmers
The Argentine government is now financially pressuring farmers in its ongoing attempt to force them to sell the soybeans they are holding as a hedge agains...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Rosselkhoznadzor, the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance, wants to decrease the volume of grain exports by tighten...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian soybeans presently look more attractive than the U.S. competition, but are hampered by concerns about dependability of shipments. However, waitin...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices continued to languish in the red during much of the day session. January soybeans were down 12 cents at one point and well below techn...
Not Ready; Not Ready; Ready
The Obama administration is sending clear signals that it wants TPA and tax overhaul legislation. However, the first step is House passage today of tax ext...
Economics and Policy Redux
Agricultural commodity prices are low once again, sparking the return of the supply management advocates. Supply Management Redux Agricultural commodity p...
Looking for the Next Bull Market
With the fall harvests essentially completed and something of a hiatus in fresh inputs from USDA until 12 January when it releases final production estimat...
Oilseed Highlights
The new Indonesian government has made achieving self-sufficiency in the production of soybeans, sugar, rice, corn and meat a greater priority than its pre...
Climate Change and Agriculture: Part Deux
Back in 2008, climate change was a hot topic for U.S. agriculture with both presidential candidates having proactive plans to address greenhouse gases and...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex was slower and lower with modest losses across the board. There was more chatter about the potential for so...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
According to Egypt's Agricultural Research Center (ARC), approximately 14 percent of the country's wheat production is lost annually. It also said that Egy...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
China's domestic soybean crushers' margins did improve from mid-September through mid-November due to the idling of plants and a temporary supply shortage...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Putin Oil; Interstellar Corn; Cotton Hypocrisy
OPEC keeps drilling and America keeps fracking despite crude oil trading under $70/barrel. This may not be the result of collusion between Washington and R...
Market Commentary
There was little buying at today's opening in corn and soybeans, and they were both down 5-7 cents by mid-morning. Wheat, however, was strong overnight and...
Late Year Politics Driving Policy
Congress is back in a lame-duck session to hash out a few issues, most of which have been overshadowed by politics. These include tax exenders, appropriati...
Wheat Takes Over
Early 2015 world wheat production estimates had been hovering near the record levels of the previous two years. Now a number of recent issues have pushed w...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The dry and cold weather in southern Russia is a serious concern for next year's wheat crop. Local analysts are estimating that it could decline 10-15 MMT...
Cyber Threats to TTIP; Extenders; Mercosur
U.S. agriculture can no longer claim to be singled out for abuse by Europe's anti-technology policy; Brussels now views major American information technolo...
Sorghum Export Sales Soar
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's corn production has declined for many reasons including erratic rains, late sowing in some cases and also the switch to soybeans by some farm...
Market Commentary
OPEC's announcement that it will not reduce production sent prices crashing lower, while U.S. financial markets were strong and again reached new highs. Ag...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
FDA Releases Menu Labeling Rule
Restaurants were originally opposed to it, but with a spate of state and local laws creating a regulatory patchwork, many national chains came around to su...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's weekly USDA export sales report once again indicated there was a net decline in U.S. soymeal export sales last week of 22,300 MT. Meanwhile, last w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine harvested 62.298 MMT of grains and leguminous crops as of 24 November. That compares with 59.996 MMT as of the same date in 2013. Meanwhile, 82 per...
Mea Culpa
Experience breeds skepticism when it comes to trade policy matters, but that resulted in our erroneous underestimation of U.S. Trade Representative Michael...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The South American soybean market was quiet this past week. Demand from China is presumed to be slow because crush margins there are not very good. Then ag...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The wildest action on the board today was in soymeal spreads. Meanwhile, corn was lightly traded, and prices dawdled around in a 5-cent price range before...
Stocking; Salty and Sweet
India claims to need a food security reserve for hungry citizens, but it exports five times more food to the U.S. than it imports from America. Stocktaking...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tax Extender Package
Legislators are already moving to permanently extend some provisions that have consensus support as good tax policy, and this sets up a longer-term debate...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iran's Governmental Trading Corporation (GTC) estimates 2014/15 wheat imports at a total 7 MMT, approximately 64 percent of the 11 MMT that the country con...
The Impact of the Strong U.S. Dollar
Potentially, the more immediate impact of the value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of other exporting countries is on the planting decisions of...
Market Commentary
It has been a turnaround Tuesday with bells on. Grain and soy markets recovered yesterday's loss and more in many cases with the soy complex leading the wa...
Market Commentary
Wheat actually traded higher much of today's session on news that Saudi Arabia did buy 345,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat. However, it couldn't withs...
Railroads Again Get Poor Marks
The survey referenced was conducted by the Soy Transportation Coalition, which includes members from 12 states and two national groups. The coalition lobbi...
Banks and Commodities: How the Coming Fed Rule Evolved
Prior to 1999 banking law reforms, bank holding companies were permitted to engage as principals on cash-settled derivative contracts as well as derivative...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
While China starts to reduce the role of government purchasing in the corn market, it is also beginning to shift its corn importing policy by possibly adju...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
French wheat exports (to non-EU destinations) are expected to decline by 30 percent versus last year because of quality problems. Consequently, France's en...
Regulations; Free From
President Obama says he will be using executive branch powers when Congress fails to act, and the regulatory agenda his administration released last week i...
Market Commentary
U.S. financial markets traded to new highs today, but did back off those peaks by mid-morning. This has been the biggest five-day rally since 2009. Like co...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
For the past few years, Indian farmers producing coarse cereals (corn, pearl millet, sorghum) increased their crops as prices grew much higher than the MSP...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Problems with Montana Wheat (and Other Insights)
There are apparently some significant quality issues surfacing in the Montana spring wheat and winter wheat crops that will in effect reduce the milling qu...
RFS; COOL; Geopolitics; Exemptions
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack this week complained that he could not change the Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) regulation so that it concurrently reflects...
Protein Inflation
Note that while next year's forecast regarding increases in protein pricing returns to normal 20-year trends for consumer inflation, it will be from a much...
Oilseed Highlights
U.S. exports of soybeans and soymeal in containers to Asian markets via West Coast ports stand to be negatively impacted by surcharges imposed by container...
Market Commentary
The overnight session provided mixed results with corn and soybeans slightly higher, while wheat dragged a little lower. However, the day session proved mo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Banks; the Vatican; Africa
Today was apparently the 25th anniversary of Africa Industrialization Day, but the Brookings Institute's John Page notes that while Asia advanced its own i...
A Divergent Outlook for Exports
One of the most interesting aspects of 2014/15, aside from the new U.S. production records for corn and soybeans, is the divergent export prospects among t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia harvested 109.9 MMT of grain in bunker weight as of 18 November. Included were 62.2 MMT of wheat (2.61 MT/hectare), 21.2 MMT of barley (2.35 MT/hect...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Today the Argentine government finally assigned the wheat export quota among the main trading houses as its conflict continues with farmers regarding polic...
Market Commentary
The day session saw a more decisive downdraft for grain and soy prices. Support from the cash meal market seems to be in rapid decline. Without that suppor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TPA Odds; Immigration Ag
At least two top Washington political analysts in the past two days have acknowledged that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is as likely as any legislation...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices mixed and the trading volume notably less than Sunday's overnight session. However, there was no doubt about...
The Soymeal Crunch of 2014
U.S. soybean processors crushed an estimated 150 million bushels during October, a record for the month. However, the limited availability of railroad equi...
Help Unlikely; Likely Helped
Intervention by President Obama seems highly unlikely, but 61 agricultural groups have nonetheless written to him asking that he intercede in the protracte...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the countries often overlooked as a market for soybeans is Turkey. However, it is one of the world's fastest-growing markets for soy as it expands i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Senate to Vote on Keystone XL Pipeline
The new Republican-controlled Senate in the upcoming 114th Congress was expected to pass the legislation approving the permit. However, the current lame-du...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
According to the FAO, Egypt's 2014/15 grain imports will drop by about 1 MMT against last year, but the total is still approximately 1 MMT greater than the...
International Economic Roundup
There have been a number of economic developments in countries across the globe that along with other factors are impacting the value of the U.S. dollar.Th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Last Friday's collapse in soybeans and soymeal wasn't enough to discourage the bulls who bought early Sunday evening and again the last half of today's ses...
China In-Country Analysis
China is seeking to increase corn imports from Europe with 36,700 MT arriving last week from Bulgaria, the first bulk shipment of non-GM corn since t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The adverse weather in Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia is delaying the corn harvest with about 30 percent left to be completed. Additionally, the domestic log...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Shuttle rail freight costs in the aftermarket have totally collapsed in the last few weeks. Shuttle trains were trading at a $4,000-5,000 per car premium j...
Positives and Negatives
The announcement by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzö Abe that he intends to postpone the next 20 percent installment in the consumption tax and call for snap...