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Newspaper Hypocrisy; WOTUS Wrong

The Washington Post criticized the Chipotle restaurant chain yesterday for pandering to the unfounded fears of consumers seeking to avoid GMOs, so why are...

Size and Efficiency

The expansion in container ship size, capacity and efficiency is a reflection of free trade and its benefits. However, growth in the size of these vessels...

Oilseed Highlights

Many in the market see today's soybean prices as low versus the highs of the last three years. Perhaps many of the new players in futures markets do not re...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Avian Influenza: Congress Urges Emergency Spending

The leadership of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees is urging USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack to transfer funds from the Commodity Credit Corporation...

Market Commentary

Confidence that the Argentine labor situation will quickly be resolved along with weakening world grain prices seemed to trump a surprisingly friendly week...

Legislative Reversal; Economic Blah

The ink was barely dry on a positive spin for Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) surrounding this week's visit to Washington by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While Russia's grain exports have substanially increased overall in the current marketing year, there have been other contrary changes in the volume of whe...

Japan Darts Past Europe; Tricking the Old

It is no surprise why the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is about to come to fruition and TTIP looks like mostly many years of meetings and a modest outco...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The strengthening of the real is encouraging Brazilian soybean producers to market slowly. Meanwhile, Chinese buyers seem primarily interested in purchasin...

Market Commentary

Soybean prices were supported by the weaker U.S. dollar and the potential for labor problems in Argentina as farmers, processors and exporters try to handl...

Oilseed Highlights

If the EU proposal to allow member states to individually opt out of allowing the importation and consumption of biotech crops is adopted, there could be s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The day session saw wheat futures swinging higher after setting new lows, and soybeans running up 15-16 cents before retreating late to close with only mod...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

It is being reported in London that the major commodity houses are lining up to do business in Iran.This could be a very  good opportunity to supply g...

A Few Idle Thoughts

We are about to enter that annual transition period between the old crop cycle and the new one. Supply/demand tensions have provided a considerable degree...

Successful Regular Order; GMO Stunts

While the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee has been one of the most politically contentious with the two parties at wide odds on environmental...

Budget Conference Report Likely This Week

Both the House and Senate budgets look to boost defense spending, while one of the other outcomes from the budget conference negotiations is related to whe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ownership in the Digital Age Issue Hits Agriculture

One of the sleeper issues in the U.S. and global economy moving forward is privacy and proprietorship of information. This concern has arisen in various fo...

Market Commentary

The soybean market continues to have legs of its own. Meanwhile, funds are short in excess of 500 million bushels of wheat futures, and they added to that...

Losing Scale; Missing; Notables

The opportunity that has been missed in the current trade debate by Republicans and Democrats alike is the reform and boosting of worker retraining. Contra...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture unveiled the country's 2015-2024 outlook last week with projections and analysis on supply, demand, exports and imports for...

Dust to Dust: The CWB Goes Away Again

Bunge Canada's recent purchase of the Canadian Wheat Board concludes the second chapter in its demise since the Canadian government  attempted to turn...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

With rising prospects for quite a good wheat crop, Russia's export tax should logically be lifted 1 July at the latest. However, that is still uncertain du...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The recent weather patterns in India have affected the rabi corn harvest and the wheat crop. As a result, there are far-reaching implications domestically...

Market Commentary

Managed money remains heavily short wheat, corn and soybeans.  Meanwhile, the focus of today's wheat markets was more on planting progress in the week...

Avian Influenza Situation Update by the Numbers

The strains, which are multiple, mutate readily and are named after the two protein groups in the virus. The rate of outbreak has increased over the past w...

TTIP Pretense; GMO Humor; Sustainability

Part of this week's ninth round of TTIP negotiations, yesterday's public session in New York, had American activist groups acting like their transatlantic...

Show Me the Weather

Today's extended weather maps and the pattern that is developing should impact talk of planting delays across the Corn Belt.Today's extended weather maps f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Souljah Opportunity; Labor Dissed; Unsweetening

During a markup session before the Senate Finance Committee last night, Senate Democrats chose to help President Obama on trade and only pay lip service to...

Tough Times for Index Funds

After being blamed in the past for artificially pushing grain prices to very high levels, index funds have pretty much slipped away from public attention t...

Market Commentary

Weekly export sales for corn and wheat were slightly better than expected, and this helped trigger something of an early rally for futures prices during da...

Oilseed Highlights

Statistics Canada today released the outcome of a planting intentions survey conducted 18-31 March that showed a surprising result regarding Canadian farme...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Both Russia and Ukraine have reported domestic grain stock volumes that have notably changed from a year ago. Meanwhile, the board chairman of Cherkizovo G...

Big Test for TPA; Uniquely Ag

The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in Horne v. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the justices learned once again that agriculture is treated unique...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While the Argentine government has not  released any additional wheat export licenses, it did make an announcement in this election year regarding far...

Market Commentary

Corn futures prices traded in less than a 5-cent range before closing fractionally lower. Funds and other noncommercials holding long positions in May corn...

Oilseed Highlights

China's Ministry of Agriculture published a report today that predicts the country's annual soybean imports will rise by 15.8 percent  between now and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Transatlantic Focus; Dems on Trade

While Europeans are in the U.S. pushing hard for acceptance of geographic indicators (GIs) as part of the TTIP negotiations, one potential reason why the U...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt has faced a much stronger outbreak of avian flu this year in small village flocks, which experts attribute to a specific factor. While none have been...

Expressing Market Opinions

Nearly all of us who watch and trade in commodity futures markets eventually develop an opinion about the direction prices will take. These are called futu...

Cuba Ag Trade: Potential and Politics

One of the somewhat surprising issues to gain traction this year in Congress has been the status of Cuba trade and diplomatic relations.One of the somewhat...

Market Commentary

It has been a slow Tuesday for grain and soy futures markets with corn and soy prices unable to hang on to yesterday's gains. Much of the market's chatter...

House Votes to Repeal Estate Tax

Farm groups are urging the Senate to also address an estate tax repeal, and Senator John Thune (R-South Dakota) has introduced a companion bill to the Hous...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Even though the new crop (July/August) 12.5 percent protein Russian/Ukrainian wheat is offered at $195/MT FOB, a price that is historically attractive at b...

Biodiesel Challenge; Available Land Implications

The Minnesota Trucking Association and others filed a lawsuit in U.S. District court last Friday that alleges that state's mandate to use a 10 percent biod...

Market Commentary

Short covering continued across the soybean futures today. Most analysts are bearish, based on the forecasts for record world ending supplies. The problem...

China In-Country Analysis

A Chinese trading company was found last week to have illegally imported more than 6,000 MT of frozen meat worth about 345 million yuan ($55.6 million). Th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trade Rhetoric; Backward Food

Now that there is a bill, the two major congressional committees with jurisdiction over trade plan hearings in the next two days on Trade Promotion Authori...

Misdirected Aid; Nonreciprocals; Status Quo

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs has issued a report ("Healthy Food for a Healthy World") calling on U.S. policy makers to save the world from starvat...

Alternative Diesel Tax Credit

On 15 April, the U.S. Senate Finance Committee gathered a number of recommendations for comprehensive tax reform that could potentially be considered this...

Market Commentary

Markets did absolutely nothing overnight and started that way this morning. Prices were little changed in corn, wheat and soybeans until just after 10:30 a...

The State of Wheat

Even though it didn't seem like there was much of any weather premium in the market before this week's rainfall, the speculative trade evidently felt there...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

 Avian flu has again surfaced in India as it erupted in the heart of the poultry belt in Telangana, which supplies eggs to eastern areas of the countr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

European Dairy without Quotas

A more than 30-year old system of national quotas for milk production in Europe ended last month and is expected to change the dairy market across the glob...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TPA Dissected; Trade Doublespeak; Organic Trash Talk

A bipartisan, bicameral bill authorizing Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), "The Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015," w...

Market Commentary

Corn closes were mixed, and soybean prices were higher. The state of play in today's market can be described by noting that not one soybean or corn contrac...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentine farm organizations yesterday asked soy exporters to stop inspecting cargoes for bootleg biotech soybean events. The exporting firms have been doi...

Attacks on Common Sense

There have been many occasions when reason and common sense have been swept aside by emotion, demagoguery and political expediency. Two current examples wi...

Market Commentary

There were quite a number of sometimes contradictory factors for grain and soy market traders to chew on today, including the National Oilseed Processors A...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The anticipation of Argentina's government distributing additional export licenses for corn and wheat is presently having little to no effect on spot corn...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Burning Witches Redux

American politicians are no more averse to wrongheaded public pressure than their European counterparts – witness the current opposition to Trade Promotion...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As Russia reports a substantial increase in grain exports thus far in MY 2014/15 compared to a year ago, Rusagrotrans has downwardly revised its forecast f...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices never go in the same direction all of the time. This is the truism that supports the phenomenon known as Turnaround Tuesday –...

When Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates?

The overwhelming consensus is the Fed will raise interest rates, but the open question regards when. Following the Federal Reserve meeting in March, there...

Corn Questions

Some questions still remain to be answered concerning the current 2014/15 corn situation. One of those pertains to the size of Brazil's crop, and another r...

Abe versus Xi; TPA Hardball; Trans

The EU's precautionary principle has kept Brussels well ahead of Washington in the issuance of restrictions against potentially frightening things. Thus, i...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Pakistani customs officials have confiscated shipments from Ukraine, Russia and Moldova, claiming there are quality issues. The latest seizure was reported...

Oilseed Highlights

There are now reports the EU will soon propose options to deal with biotech crops. One under consideration would allow EU member countries to decide indivi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

There was the smell of rain in the air across the western reaches of the U.S. hard red winter wheat region, and that was enough to bring another major roun...

China In-Country Analysis

While the drop in China's live pig and sow inventories clearly has propped up prices, the continued upward trend might actually decelerate due to downstrea...

Not So Simple Solutions

McKinsey & Company ranks high amongst major management consulting companies, but even it appears to struggle with the complexity of the agrifood system...

USDA to Expand Supplemental Coverage Option

Coverage under SCO is available in 2015 for a few select crops in a few designated counties. Specific requirements must also be met, but there will be chan...

U.S. Soybean Exports Almost Finished

What happened to the "demand destruction" that several years of very high prices were supposed to have wrought on the markets?Today's weekly export inspect...

RFS; Jurisdiction; Economy

As officials currently in charge of the EU are increasingly looking for ways to devolve power to the member states, including over GMOs, Washington is cons...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The last major USDA reports are behind us until the 30 June acreage and quarterly stocks updates. We're back to weather first and demand second, but there...

The California Drought and Agriculture

California is in a major drought situation and now under emergency restrictions declared by Governor Gerry Brown. While these exempt agriculture, which has...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet overnight with corn, soybeans and wheat trading both sides in light volume. Wheat popped back today with some decent gains, while soybea...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With its oil meals priced high, India has seen the level of exports impacted significantly, and the poultry sector there could benefit by importing supplie...

Oilseed Highlights

Thailand's energy minister announced today that the government plans to change the current biodiesel blending requirement on 15 April  in an effort to...

The April WASDE

USDA's April estimates of ending 2014/15 stocks, both for the U.S. and the world, probably command the greatest interest for grain traders and analysts.Eac...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures headed lower overnight with soybeans leading the way, and prices stayed lower this morning ahead of the release of USDA's April WASDE...

Cases of Avian Influenza Discovered in Minnesota and Canada

All of the cases have been detected in the past month with five of those found since last week. The Minnesota farms are in a flyway for migratory birds, pu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Renationalization; Biofuel; Small and Unsafe

The pushback from EU member states to the detailed meddling by Brussels into everyday European life has its politicians scrambling to give capitals more au...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

 Argentine soybean quality is a concern this season as the first deliveries to the ports showed protein below 32.5 percent. This is a potentially seri...

Market Commentary

Amid the swinging U.S. dollar and crude oil, grain and soy prices were a sea of calm. Once again, prices traded a bit higher overnight, although it was not...

Purity; Rapprochement; Spades

Few consumers are aware that organic food in the U.S. is made with synthetics and chemicals as that industry does not support labeling. However,  the...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The volume of Ukraine's rapeseed oil and meal exports has notably changed for the months July 2014-February 2015 against the same period a year ago as have...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ag Review: Screwy Currencies

Currency Valuation and Trade The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the strong U.S. dollar weigh on commodity trading decisions. The TPP and a Pr...

More on WOTUS Rule

While the U.S. EPA and Army Corps of Engineers claim that jurisdictional water bodies are easily defined, a number of issues remain.Yesterday we wrote abou...

Math; Prejudice; Pivot

According to some analysts, the logical "pivot to Asia" made by the Obama administration is in trouble without the TPP. Math and Trade U.S. Representative...

Market Commentary

It is a story that has repeated with some frequency recently. Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex produces a price rally, but the rally effort...

Oilseed Highlights

In an effort to offset a huge decline in soymeal exports, India may be rebating a larger percent of the FOB export value to exporters. India Increases Soym...

The April WASDE and Beyond

The main question regarding U.S. corn and soybeans for the balance of the 2014/15 crop year is whether demand will be enough to achieve the levels foreseen...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Syria and Italy are reportedly discussing a trade involving 100,000 MT of Syrian durum wheat for 100,000 MT of soft milling wheat. This type of countertrad...

China In-Country Analysis

Several factors are putting upward pressure on China's average pork prices. President Xi's decree that party officials implement an eight-point guide for o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Shrinking

Two elements of our 20 March analysis of the 2015 U.S. wheat outlook, which pegged hard red winter wheat production at 810 million bushels and total wheat...

WOTUS Rule to Go to OMB

As proposed, the "Water of the United States" (WOTUS) rule would dramatically expand the amount of wet areas that would become federally controlled. Given...

Burning Witches; No Chinese Surprise

The Agricultural Market Information Service (AMIS), set up as political cover for political leaders who failed to take notice of an impending food price sp...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Russian government is considering a possible extension of the wheat export tax beyond 30 June. If the tax is maintained through the 2015/16 campaign, i...

Market Commentary

It was another day that found it tough to explain why we had the major shifts in nearly every market. After opening slightly higher following the long East...

Iran; GMO Prejudice; Fantasies (Local and Export)

The EU's already approved policy to allow member states to decide individually whether GM crops could be grown on their territory was viewed as a net posit...

There is a New Sheriff in Town

Exercising its new role under Dodd-Frank, the CFTC filed a civil lawsuit yesterday (1 April) in federal court charging Kraft Foods Group LLC and its affili...

Oilseed Highlights

The  Brazilian government's effort to re-evaluate 14 pesticides for possible bans has been ongoing for seven years and stymied by lawsuits as well as...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets saw a dual between poor weekly export sales and growing weather concerns ahead of a three-day weekend. Corn futures prices did bounce...

Antibiotics Back in the Crosshairs

USDA will focus on three specific areas in conjunction with the Obama administration's new National Action Plan for Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

We see today's upturn of grain and soy futures prices as acknowledgement that yesterday's stocks and prospective plantings really did little to change the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The export market for Argentine wheat improved this past week with some buyers from Brazil and Chile. Unfortunately, there is somewhat of a logistical prob...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The National Association of Exporters of Agricultural Products has requested that the Russian government cancel the wheat export duty midway through its ef...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Funding Pipedreams

The Environmental Working Group (EWG) correctly asserts in its new analysis, "Feeding the World – Without GMOs," that it is "possible" to feed the growing...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

While Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have signed a preliminary agreement regarding Nile water,  the major water source for farming in Egypt and Sudan, it i...

USDA’s Acreage and Stocks Reports

Based on pre-report expectations, corn was supposed to be the market's bullish leader, while soybeans were to be further pressured by a large gain in plant...

Food Manufacturing Sector in the U.S. to Restructure?

The expected activity in the food sector is based on lowered commodity costs and increased economic growth in the U.S. Most financial analysts see an oppor...

Trade Policy Fables

Public Citizen is reporting that the Seattle City Council voted unanimously in opposition to Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). These are the elected leaders...

Market Commentary

The market's reputation for producing a volatile reaction to USDA March stocks and plantings report was well-maintained today. General Comments After a lon...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA Stocks Report found total U.S. soybean supplies on 1 March did not quite meet the average analyst estimate but showed an impressive change aga...

Status of Farm Bill Implementation

At a subcommittee hearing held last week on the farm bill implementation, different agency administrators reported on the current status of program enrollm...

The Big Show Starts Tomorrow – USDA Acreage & Stocks Reports

The corn and soybean acreage numbers (as always) have attracted the most attention and will be the initial focus of tomorrow's reports. There are a number...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

There are offers of Bulgarian, Romanian, Ukrainian and Russian wheat for April/May shipment at $207-216/MT FOB without close buying interests. There are al...

Market Commentary

Soybeans benefited from the fund short covering in the wheat market. Weekly export inspections were also (again) better than expected, and there was some c...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Nudges; Judges; and Water

The Obama administration, under the lead of First Lady Michelle Obama, has made a laudable attempt at reducing obesity in the U.S. A new book now concludes...

China In-Country Analysis

China's sorghum and barley imports continued to grow in February. The comparative price advantages of both with respect to domestic corn coupled with no qu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.\...

Senate Joins House In Passing Budget

The Republican congressional leadership is nearing one of its goals, passage of a joint budget resolution. With a statutory deadline of 15 April,  the...

Indecision

With the Tuesday release of USDA's planting intention numbers, the large disparities between the corn quarterly stocks numbers and the trade guesses over t...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Following the sudden rise in domestic corn prices, India's end users are considering imports. Although direct, duty-free corn importation is permitted, cer...

TPP Stakes; New GHG Risk; Food versus Fuel

Princeton University Research Scholar Tim Searchinger might minimally be called a pain in the backside to the ethanol industry for past statements. He and...

Market Commentary

The soy complex is where the selling was centered today, while wheat tried to recapture some of yesterday's big losses ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, the...

TPA Fight; Productivity

The fight over Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) on Capitol Hill is intensifying and becoming brutish. While both sides in the debate are claiming to have th...

Market Commentary

The ongoing South American harvest and the possible increase in 2015 U.S. soybean acres in next week's report is a heavy load for the soybean market to car...

The Renewable Fuel Standard

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was pushed by the Bush administration with wide bipartisan support in 2005 and 2007, but it demonstrates how risky and ev...

Oilseed Highlights

For the second week in a row, USDA's export inspections report indicated containers of soybeans for shipment to North Korea were inspected last week. Howev...

Animal and Meat Inventories

Several factors indicate that USDA's quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, scheduled to be released tomorrow, will show a larger swine inventory. How much of a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Today's relatively narrow futures trading ranges testify to the lack of fresh trading incentives as well as the market's cautious approach to next week's g...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

It was reported that Russian wheat exports decreased 34 percent during 1 February-18 March (compared with the same period in 2014) after introduction of th...

Institutional; Blindness; Omission

While the House Agriculture Committee was receiving testimony 'mostly' advising government action to avoid retaliation for a WTO-illegal  country-of-o...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina is poised to harvest approximately 23 MMT of corn, and close to 12 MMT of that should be available for export, assuming the government is willing...

Market Commentary

Other than outside factors that were largely ignored, grains and the soy complex had little to trade on today other than weather. Wheat reversed from the l...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

A tremendous amount of interest regarding investments in Egypt's agriculture was generated at a conference held there last week. Two key development agreem...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Commodities and the Canadian Election

The Canadian economy has been a winner during the commodities boom of recent years. With recent yearend figures now available, however, that appears to be...

Glyphosate; China Policy; Real Food

For foodies, some processed food with substitute ingredients can be bad and others can be good, depending on whether there is an agreeable social cause tha...

Speculating About U.S. Crop Acreage

Analytical speculation about the amounts of acreage that will be planted to specific crops began soon after the January reports, and there are numerous fac...

Oilseed Highlights

While participants at this week's 9th Asia Grain Transportation Conference are generally in an upbeat mood, there have been several questions regarding the...

Market Commentary

Soybeans led today's push higher in the ag commodities with soybean futures gaining as much as 15-16 cents at one point. The buying was the result of anoth...

House Ag Committee to Hold Five Hearings This Week

This week's ambitious hearing lineup adheres to what Chairman Michael Conway (R-Texas) suggested would be the committee's agenda for the year: CFTC reform,...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Although old crop wheat on the Black Sea market is now offered at competitive levels versus French and German origins, demand is very difficult to find. Me...

Hillary on Trade; Apples; CFTC

Given the outright hostility of labor unions and angst by liberals over the impact of free trade on the U.S. economy, Democratic presidential candidates ar...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There are several items that have been in the news recently and are worth thinking about before the planting season starts in earnest.This is the last full...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

A number of Chinese crushers have reportedly chosen to suspend operations temporarily for several reasons. Meanwhile, the average crush margin for imported...

U.S. Wheat Outlook

We won't know what hard red spring wheat and durum acres will total until the 31 March USDA report. Opinions are mixed today with seed dealers continuing t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet in overnight trade, but that changed radically when the U.S. dollar collapsed and crude oil surged sharply higher. This brought across-t...

How Much Water Does Avoiding Beef Save?

Arguments and exaggerations regarding water use are the lifeblood of a number of issues facing livestock today from those in animal agriculture to producer...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Unseasonal precipitation across much of India is impacting many crops, particularly wheat, fruits and vegetables. In turn, that is expected to continue aff...

Politicized Science; Costly Legislation

Rather than change the underlying offending Cargo Preference requirement, the U.S. government is proposing to pay $90 million annually to American-flagged...

Plain English; Cockfights; Phobic

Congressional approval of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is at risk and the Obama White House is pulling out all of the stops. None of this will change th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

In Defense of Free Trade

The current politics of free trade are so complex that the basic issues involved sometimes get lost.One definition of free trade is that it allows me to fr...

Broiler Exports Face Trifecta of Hurdles

Three main factors are impacting U.S. broiler exports, but chicken will also have to compete domestically with dropping pork prices. However, there are a f...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S. cottonseed crushing is forecast to decline in 2014/15 to the lowest level in 15 years. There are several reasons for this drop, and the situation may...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy rally completely stalled out during the day session as the U.S. dollar continued to climb back from yesterday's beating. Soybean futures...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's grain exports via its sea ports had a slight gain last month against the results of February 2014. Turkey's imports of Ukrainian wheat, however,...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Brazilian soybean basis is anticipated to soon decline, and that is a potential concern for Argentine soybean producers as their position is being stea...

Market Commentary

The Fed's apparent reluctance to raise interest rates caused a big slide in the U.S. dollar's value in late trade, although it still is near a 12-year high...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Lower Demand; Self-Sufficiency; TPP Proxy

Major food exporters are counting on growth in middle class incomes in developing countries for increased future demand. However, a recent analysis suggest...

Senate Budget Committee to Start Markup Tomorrow

Much of the Senate's budget, which will likely be released this evening or tomorrow morning before a 2:30 pm (EDT) markup, will be focused on Medicare, Med...

Market Commentary

During overnight trade, corn futures prices were unchanged to slightly weaker in slow trade. During the day session, though, fund pressure and technical se...

Weather and Other Stuff

Weather and production agriculture are inseparable. In the past, the weather market season nominally lasted until about 15 December. With the emergence of...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The volume of Saudi Arabia's wheat imports is notably shifting as its domestic production is affected by a change in land usage. Meanwhile, maize demand is...

Oilseed Highlights

The National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) yesterday announced an impressive February soybean crush volume, while the average soyoil yield was s...

Both Ways; Not Us; Sort of

The European Commission and members of Parliament continue to debate how to handle the presence of "unauthorized" substances in organic food. It is very di...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

Based on conversations with our market sources, there are actually two companies involved in the recently reported major soybean smuggling operation in Chi...

Bans and Influences

While 30 countries have imposed bans on the entry of U.S. poultry over the past month due to the outbreak of avian influenza in several states, many have c...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The current offer of new crop (August 2015) Russian/Ukrainian 12.5 percent protein wheat is approximately $80/MT lower than the 2014 new crop offer at the...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged today but were mostly lower the last half of the session. The bearish news was that truckers in Brazil did n...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Lonely Days – Lonely Nights

It has been a challenging period for market analysts who must find something to write about when there really isn't much different happening. We tend to fo...

Weather Market Economy

The concept of a weather market is a well-subscribed orthodoxy in agriculture and a factor in energy markets. First quarter gross domestic product (GDP) da...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

U.S. farmers must soon make their 2015 crop revenue insurance decision, and it is likely that they will take reduced coverage per acre in reaction to certa...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Updated Look at Farm Bill Spending

The dropping prices and the attractiveness of the ARC program under a more bearish market outlook have caused the CBO to update its  cost projections...

Currency Implications; Pesticides Residues

The U.S. dollar continues its surge in relative value, causing concern not just amongst U.S. companies but apparently in Japan as well. Anti-Trade Currency...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI's recently released Economic Survey 2014-15 strongly advocated cutting subsidies and using new technologies to address problems with the distribution s...

Market Commentary

The stronger U.S. dollar, talk that Ukraine was offering corn below U.S. prices and the overall selling mood in all commodities together eventually pushed...

HPAI in Arkansas Turkey Flock

USDA's APHIS has confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic H5N2 avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial turkey flock in Arkansas, located within the Missi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Risk Management

Identifying risks and their source would seem to be an obvious necessity for any management plan. However, businesses sometimes incur risks that they are n...

Market Commentary

About two hours after the day session opened, Chicago May wheat traded through its 20-day moving average at $5.05, and a volume of fund buy stop orders was...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina and Brazil, the two main competitors to the U.S. in the soybean sector, have seen their currencies fall in value to the U.S. dollar. If that tren...

Trash-Talking; Pre-TPA TPP

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has once again invoked producers of GM and non-GM crops to reach a compromise on coexistence. However, producers of GM crops hav...

Biofuel Industry Fractures; Kobe Slimed

At least some parts of the U.S. advanced biofuels industry are asking for congressional legislation to change the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The reques...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

It seems that U.S. and Black Sea corn became more attractive to global buyers once Argentine prices increased into the mid-50s for the March-July period. T...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading started out slowly and without price direction. However, a later surge of buy orders in wheat and corn sent prices solidly into the green...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

A Rusagrotrans official indicated the effective export duty for wheat will significantly influence the structure of Russia's March grain exports with barle...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trade, Payrolls and Productivity

Imports and exports both declined steeply in January, driven by two key temporary factors. Meanwhile, like a plow horse, the progress in the labor market d...

EU Balkanization of GMOs

The release of an extensive review of EU policy on GMOs is scheduled for later next month, and some of the pending proposals for future procedures will cau...

Oilseed Highlights

Conab has dropped its estimates for Brazil's soybean crop and area planted to soybeans. However, the agency raised the domestic crush forecast because of a...

The March WASDE

The March WASDE always provides an interesting update on USDA's views about U.S. and world demand as well as its take on South American soybean and corn pr...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in grain and soy futures was dominated by the U.S. dollar's climb to new heights, and the March WASDE released at noon (EDT) today did not...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's ag ministry is reported to have been considering a plan to tax imported corn by as much as $65/MT. However, pressure from the poultry industry and...

Anticipating USDA's March WASDE

Analysts appear to be in general agreement regarding expectations for the March WASDE. The crop production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina might be more...

Market Commentary

A stronger wheat market helped corn as did more talk that farmers are looking for ways to reduce corn costs because of low prices. Soybean and meal contrac...

Iowa Ag Summit

The main goal of the Iowa Ag Summit was to pin down GOP presidential candidates on their position regarding renewable fuels and the Renewable Fuel Standard...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 505,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 21.3 MMT versus 20.8 MMT at the same time in 2014. At the current pac...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Selective Merchandising; Ethanol Dinged

While Robert Kenner's "Merchants of Doubt" is set to be released this Friday, the missed opportunity is to make a documentary about the merchants of small,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Crude Oil and Corn

Globally, the supply of crude oil and petroleum products is on a trend to hit a record-high 2.83 billion barrels by midyear. The question remains as to wha...

Market Commentary

Talk that Ukraine was trying to double its corn exports to China in the next year plus the strong U.S. dollar brought more fund selling to corn today. Mean...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Agriculture received its fair share in the Modi government's first full budget with one of the main proposals targeting the creation of a national agricult...

The Silly Season of Weekly Crop Ratings

These rating numbers have become a trading game. The problem is they are simply not reliable indicators of crop yields and were really never intended to be...

Ag Review: India's Possible Transformation

India's Possible Transformation Long a protectionist, backward country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making modest changes that will alter India's agric...

TPA Reaction; EU Complexity

Reacting to Republican criticism that President Obama was squandering his opportunity to get Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) through the Congress, the Whit...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

End of EU Dairy Quota to Create Beef Bubble

With the EU's longstanding dairy quota  set to expire in April 2015, changes in dairy production as well as herd expansion are expected across a numbe...

U.S. Wheat and World Demand

Two important factors that have limited U.S. wheat exports in 2014/15 have been large wheat supplies held by competing origins and the effect of the histor...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA export sales report confirmed the continued seasonal trend in U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. Meanwhile, Brazil's wildca trucker...

Market Commentary

It is possible for large traders to influence charts, and chart action has near-term importance. However, the soy complex currently does not have the same...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There is some tension and uncertainty in the pricing dynamics for Paraguayan grain (corn and wheat) as farmers have refused to accept low flat prices for t...

Market Commentary

We are in a period in the crop cycles when markets feel they have pretty well counted up available supplies, and demand becomes the dominant variable.The s...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's milling wheat prices rocketed again due to depreciation of the national currency (UAH). Some traders stopped buying as the UAH rate's further dev...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Doha; Biotech; Energy

 In the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations, several WTO members are apparently now receptive to dumping the "Swiss-formula" approach to agr...

Market Commentary

Today's markets provided something for everyone, depending on when you looked. The corn market badly needs a story to tell, but it may not get one until th...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The USDA report on grain and feed for Israel was issued last week. As expected, it shows that the country is still almost totally dependent on grain import...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Squandering TPA; AGOA Deficit

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) announced that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation will not be introduced before April...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina has begun requiring monthly reports of silage bag sales to farmers and third party venders in response to a situation that is reducing the amount...

To Label or Not to Label

One issue of great importance to agriculture is the question of whether or not there should a mandate that foods produced from GM materials be labeled as s...

House Ag Review of SNAP

Many observers believe that this year's budget resolution, the first in five years if it comes to the House and Senate floors, will include reconciliation...

Agriculture and White House Push for TPA

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) issued a press release on Thursday of last week that noted all the major ag and processor g...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Of Strikes and Other Soybean Issues

The political mood of the transportation and port industries might play a bigger role in the soybean supply and demand situation than record crop productio...

China In-Country Analysis

China's soymeal exports have increased noticeably in the past months, according to recent data, and the volume of soybeans that arrived in the country duri...

Non-GMO Label; Green Politics

Currently, there are privately certified non-GMO labels, but there is a lack of transparency and potential bias in their structure. U.S. soybean growers no...

Market Commentary

May soybeans closed right at the 50-day moving average and at or near the day's lows. The next move might be whether or not the funds try to take that out...

TPA Threatened; Food Threatened

The U.S. government's has announced a decision regarding water distribution this year to farmers in California's hyper-productive Central Valley that shoul...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's government revised the kharif corn production (October/November harvest) forecast from 16.07 MMT to 16.47 MMT. However, the trade and industry ther...

Market Commentary

Price changes in the soy complex today depended on how the market interpreted any news of the Brazilian truckers' strike. Wheat was inexplicably strong tod...

Crop Revenue Update

Some producers are just starting to look at the price calculations and are stunned by the revenue coverage for 2015 crops versus the previous several years...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Appropriations Panel Reviews FSIS Budget Priorities

The FSIS budget has become one of the more delicate political issues in the past few years because of the 2011 Budget Control Act that reestablished the se...

Financial Regulation; TAA

While U.S. congressional leaders calculate how to reach agreement on Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), it is clear that melding U.S. and European agricultur...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Beef Prices Up on Limited Supply

According to USDA, Americans spent about 6.4 percent of their annual consumer expenditures on food in 2012. However, protein prices are rsing at a faster r...

Market Commentary

The soy complex ruled futures markets today, and press reports highlighting road blockages by Brazilian truckers ruled the soy complex. The corn and wheat...

Oilseed Highlights

While India's previous govenment began stalling the reglatory process for biotech crops in 2010, the victory of Prime Minister Modi's BJP party last year h...

Corn versus Soybeans

Although it may be an oversimplification, the annual spring planting decisions are widely viewed as a fight between corn and soybeans. However, a variety o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Politocrats; TPA Crunch; Chocolate Hooey

If the FAO wished to accomplish food security, it would promote improved governance, land rights, the availability of inputs, credit and transparent market...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As Ukraine's currency depreciates, most of the country's grain and oilseed prices have seen significant increases in the past week. Meanwhile, its MY 2014/...

Market Commentary

Export demand for U.S. soybeans has begun to lighten as Brazilian shipments get underway, and USDA reported a sale of 120,000 MT of HRW to Egypt under the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

During the next month, South American farmers will have to start considering their planting intentions for the 2015/16 season. Ther market there, though, i...

Economic Report of the President: Climate Change and Ag

The report shows recent change in farm income over the past five years. For the future, it focuses heavily on the threats posed by climate change issues in...

China In-Country Analysis

A look at the dynamics that transpired in 2014 and the early part of 2015 with commentary and observations on factors shaping the way forward for this and...

No Grease for Greece; Japan’s Next Farm Minister

Greece may have obtained a four-month extension in its fight with the European Union over a budget crisis, but vacating the euro is an uncertain solution f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's tourism industry, which greatly affects the country's poultry sector, has improved since 2013. There are other factors, though, that are also impac...

Market Commentary

After yesterday's weakness, the corn market was due for a turnaround and had one for most of the session, thanks to the pull from the soybean market Genera...

The Stubborn Soybean Market

The outlook for soybeans does continue to appear fundamentally bearish. However, soy complex futures seem reluctant to acknowledge just how bearish the sit...

Oilseed Highlights

While Brazil raised its biodiesel blending requirement from 6 to 7 percent effective 1 December 2014, truckers there protesting against a diesel fuel tax a...

California Cooperatives Petition for Federal Milk Pricing

USDA received a formal hearing request from California Dairies Inc., Land O'Lakes Inc. and Dairy Farmers of America Inc. to establish a Federal Milk Market...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Russian and Ukrainian wheat are offered significantly lower today versus two weeks ago, but they are still not competitive against French, German and Polis...

The Void Zone

The big problem for markets over the next six weeks is that there will be very little in the way of fresh news to discuss, especially of the bullish variet...

Climate; Spring Planting; Sugar; Biofuel

The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee argued last week that sugars should be reduced from the diet and taxes imposed on sugar-sweetened beverages. Now...

Market Commentary

Markets were steady to slightly firmer overnight, but that didn't last long in today's session. The soy complex is very resilient in the face of a record h...

Market Commentary

Markets were slightly lower overnight in light volume. This week's pattern of one day strong and the next day weak continued today after yesterday's streng...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Acreage Question

The question of what U.S. farmers will plant in 2015 is still looming very large over the markets. Most analysts have been assuming that acreage will decli...

TPA; TTIP; Antitrust

Food manufacturers that rely on major distributors to get their products to stores around the U.S. are breathing easier now that the Federal Trade Commissi...

Dietary Guidelines

One of the key developments is that while less consumption of red and processed meats is advised, recommendations regarding lean meat are excluded.That is...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India has announced the draft of a new health certificate that could allow the importation of frozen pork and pork products from the U.S. Currently, those...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA today revealed its estimates for U.S. crop plantings in 2015 at its annual Outlook Conference. In a bit of a surprise and in contrast to many other pr...

COOL Appeal Hearing This Week

The U.S. appeal over the WTO ruling against its country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) regulation is being heard in Geneva this week. It is likely the WTO will...

Market Commentary

The market viewed USDA's soybean acreage projection as bullish. The corn acreage number was not a real surprise. Corn futures gained about 6 cents, mostly...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Speculative Position Limits

Those who trade in grain and soy complex derivatives are very familiar with speculative position limits. There have been such limits in place since the 193...

Politicizing Nutrition

The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee has recommended the spawning of many mayors like former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg by suggesting that...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine corn licenses for new crop have been issued for the time period from 15 March onward. However, early-seeded corn is presently being harvested, an...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Grain Union announced that spring planting costs will rise at least 40 percent compared to 2014 because of certain other increasing expenses. R...

Market Commentary

After yesterday's strong market, trade in soybeans and corn was rather noncommittal during the overnight session. Outside factors did not help grain and so...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Contrary Grain Sorghum Outlook

There is good reason to devote attention to grain sorghums this year as exports have been soaring with China's huge demand and impacting prices.In USDA's m...

Drones in Agriculture

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has released its rules on the commercial use of drones. While the agriculture sector is expected by some to be on...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Breadth of Ag Support

The number of Americans directly involved in food and agriculture continues to fall, but the sector still retains some influence on Capitol Hill as evidenc...

Market Commentary

Wheat and corn prices changed only modestly, but soymeal and soybean prices were sharply higher with the strong meal market leading the way. General Commen...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

A recent forecast of Turkey's grain imports indicates a noticeable change due to the effect of the winter weather on that country's wheat and barley produc...

Oilseed Highlights

India's soymeal exports to date have been running far below the pace of a year earlier since October for a number of reasons. However, new data indicates J...

Market Commentary

This was Friday the 13th and an impressive day, considering it came ahead of a long holiday weekend in the U.S. The only unlucky people seemed to be t...

Presidents' Day

Monday, 16 February is a U.S. holiday. The markets and our office will all be closed that day.  Please note that the next publication date for Ag Pers...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

It is now hoped that India's new government will be able to  keep the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of fine cereals in check, and the states have b...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

It's been a long and quiet week in both the markets and market-making (or breaking) news, but here are some things to keep you up at night: Do you ever wo...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Recent chatter that cotton acres will decline by 10-15 percent this year also suggests many of those will go to corn, leaving that crop's acreage nearly un...

Climate; Japan Ag; Mad Cow; Apples

Departing White House aide John Podesta attacked the Republican-led Congress for failing to address global climate change. However, the blame lies squarely...

Chlorine; Emissions; the Devil

Agriculture is being targeted for many ills ranging from obesity to water pollution. Now the Food and Agriculture Organization has piled on with a study cl...

WASDE

USDA revised the forecast for total red meat and poultry production compared with the January report, based on changes in all three species.   WASDE...

Oilseed Highlights

While the market is accounting for the pending huge Argentine soybean crop, uncertainty surrounds what farmers will do with the soybean stocks they current...

Constant Change

If there is a single common thread that ties together agricultural crops and all of the varied economic activities that are based on them, it is the consta...

Market Commentary

Trading in the grains and soy complex in both the overnight and day sessions was a low volume affair with prices visiting both sides. Meanwhile, weekly exp...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

So far in 2014/15, the soybean futures market has been more impressed by the demand for soybeans and soymeal than by soybean supplies. However, it will pro...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While Brazilian soybeans are presently more competitive than those at the U.S. Gulf for March-May, that spread is not large. Any appreciation of the real o...

Devaluation Rationalized; Defining Export Subsidies

The U.S. Congress is demanding that currency manipulation be addressed, and now U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has some explaining to do. Currency Devalu...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's wheat export duty that went into effect 1 February was intended to reduce export volumes and decrease domestic prices. However, neither of these g...

Market Commentary

Without new market-moving guidance of their own, grain and soy futures markets again came under the influence of outside factors as they so often have rece...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The deputy chairman of the Cyprus Grain Commission (CGC) resigned last week and indicated certain steps that the organization will need to implement in ord...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA supply and demand report included no major surprises for the soybean sector, but it was slightly positive. There were several revisions to U.S...

Crop Insurance under the Budget Gun

More budget scrutiny is anticipated in the coming year, given the focus on deficits and reduced spending as well as the over-budget projected costs of the...

More on Currencies; Fundamentals

Legislation that would classify "currency manipulation" as a countervailable subsidy under U.S. trade law could cause unnecessary collateral damage. More o...

The February WASDE

On a relative (percentage) basis, the biggest change in a U.S. grain or oilseed supply/demand estimate was for grain sorghums. However, perhaps the most cl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Eggs and California Lead to Interstate Commerce Bill

In the short term, California's 2008 egg-layer referendum seems to have widened the historical gap between that state's market and other parts of the count...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Perfect Currency Storm; Battle of Studies

The U.S. dollar is on a long-term spike in value at the same time other economies are softening, and the timing couldn't be worse for Obama administration...

2015-16 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand is Bearish

Nearly every analysis including this one agrees on the  2015 U.S. and world soybean outlook. However, the jury is still largely out on at least one im...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU has allocated a higher number of wheat export licenses compared to a year ago at this time.This is not surprising, though, when considering certain...

China In-Country Analysis

Several factors in conjunction with the late movement by China's feed mills to stock up for the holiday season suggest that the soymeal price will be chang...

Market Commentary

Corn led markets higher with wheat struggling, and soybeans traded as much as 8-9 higher at mid-morning, although they couldn't sustain those gains. Most o...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India currently grows only one GM crop, cotton. Experts now believe that the country should look beyond cotton as GM production has a proven domestic track...

Junk Science: Biotech and Pesticides

EU Commissioners failed to reach agreement on approval or disapproval of a dozen pending biotech traits. The fact that politics rather than science largely...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

With markets more active than would be expected for early February, there are several issues related to crops and trade  that are worth considering.Ma...

Market Commentary

The markets started slightly lower last night but firmed as the session wore on and finished slightly higher. That trend was reversed once today's session...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Presidential Candidates to Appear at Ag Forum in Iowa

On 7 March, an agriculture policy forum for presidential candidates is scheduled at the Iowa State fairgrounds in Des Moines. While the event is targeted t...

Ag Review: Future Price Action and the Bell Curve

Doomed or Muddling Through Global economic and political developments present many concerns, but there are a few less stark perspectives. The Year Ahead fo...

Market Commentary

It has been a topsy-turvy week for grain and soy futures as well as energy markets as they react to a variety of contrary factors that pushed prices up, do...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

South Africa's farmers have planted a record area to soybeans this year in response to strong domestic demand, which has been rising and is expected to gro...

Plummeting Pork Prices

Today's pork cutout value was the lowest since spring 2009. One reason is a drop in cases of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv), but there are also oth...

Ag as Poster Child; Booze Tax

Members of Congress largely representing agricultural districts may be few in number, but the sector is a poster child for what many in the body see as the...

A Sad but Inevitable Day

Advancing technology made the end of open outcry pit trading of futures inevitable, but it will still be sad to see such a historic, colorful era conclude...

Market Commentary

Soy complex prices fell and gave back half or more of yesterday's gains as trader's recognized that supply/demand fundamentals for soybeans are as bearish...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia has exported 22.7 MMT of grains as of 28 January and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, 31 percent more than during the same period in MY 2013/14. Th...

U.S.–EU Debate; Ag and the Environment

U.S. and EU negotiators meeting this week on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership have plenty on the agenda. A major hurdle continues to be i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Rather stable corn futures contracts at the CBOT of around $4.00 per bushel and present uncertainty about the ability to export are causing corn basis to w...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Market Trends: 26-30 January 2015During the week in review, wheat prices moved in different directions as prices for other grain crops increased (in RUB ex...

Budget Surprises; LDP’s TPP Plan

The Obama administration's budget once again proposes reorganizing certain government functions, but also seeks to increase funds for a few agricultural-re...

Market Commentary

Recent increases in open interest in corn, soybeans and wheat have suggested that new noncommercial shorts had entered the market. Today's sudden rally in...

Details on Ag Proposals in the President’s Budget

Two of the changes to USDA spending programs included in President Obama's proposed FY 2016 budget are related to the federal crop insurance program and co...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of Indonesian President Joko Widodo has proposed more than tripling the subsidy for biodiesel in order to expand production and help the pal...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to reports from Russia, wheat cargoes to Egypt's GASC are delayed in the ports there and exporters/traders will now be liable for the new Russian...

One View of the South American Soybean Outlook

Much like the U.S., Brazil produces soybeans over a huge land mass, virtually assuring that every crop has developed under a variety of weather conditions...

TTIP Skepticism; Food Movement

Supposed horizontal regulatory principles are on the TTIP agenda and include an earlier U.S. proposal for handling SPS issues. However, the EU has imposed...

Market Commentary

The soy complex opened higher this morning despite overnight news that China's latest PMI number was below 50 for the first time in two-and-a-half years. E...

Crop Revenue Insurance Pricing Started Today

Farmers previously knew well in advance of the planting season that they would have big per acre revenue guarantees from the insurance program regardless o...

China In-Country Analysis

On 1 February, China's central government released its annual guidelines for the domestic economy and key policy reforms, known as China's "No.1 Central Do...

President Submits Budget for FY 2016

The budget was very much in line with the proposals in President Obama's State of the Union address and included a number of new tax proposals  that w...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukrainian corn is under heavy pressure. At current prices, it is more competitive against U.S. origin to Asia, although not by much. The last trades to Sou...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's 2013/14 vegetable oil imports grew by 12 percent to a record high of 11.82 MMT and are expected to rise further. GOI has raised the import duties o...

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Outlook

Those analysts with a bearish slant, probably representing the higher percentage today, will at least use a big yield estimate and are also likely to have...

Market Commentary

Much of the world was lower on this last trading day of January. Soybean and soymeal futures were down double-digits off and on as fund liquidation and mor...

Petroleum; Europe’s Future

There is a terrific mess in Europe, and the attitude of the newly-elected Greek government that it must be granted debt relief is posing a massive challeng...

Farm Operating Loans and Livestock Loans Up on Down Market

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank released its report on farm lending for the fourth quarter of 2014, which showed non-real estate loans are up about 50...

Trading Ranges

The corn and wheat futures markets have clearly abandoned their trading ranges of last fall and are trying to find new ones at some lower level.There are a...

New Dairy Margin Protection Program Costs

The CBO's latest 10-year budget baseline estimates total costs of the Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMPP) have changed significantly from the April 2014...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. biodiesel industry and oilseed producer organizations are livid at the Obama administration for its announcement this week that it would facilitat...

Market Commentary

Wheat, corn and soyoil all fell to new lows for the month. The day session at least had USDA's weekly export sales report to trade on, although how much in...

Environment; Biotech; Biofuel; Beef and Pork

U.S. EPA is working on a plan to slow the adaptation by corn rootworms to corn that has been genetically modified to contain Bacillus thuringiensus (Bt). M...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The strong U.S. dollar has been one of the factors pressing on commodity prices (including grains and the soy complex) and certainly was part of the reason...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Brazil: The Year of the Soybean

Not very often do North and South America enjoy such similarly beneficial weather for spring planted crops during the same crop cycle as has been seen duri...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's Agrarian Policy and Food Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko signed a Memorandum of Understanding with grain exporters on 27 January. The parties agreed th...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmers are considering how to be strategic next season with low domestic prices and limited credit. During the past few crop cycles, they switch...

Competitive Devaluation

Both Democrats and Republicans in congressional hearings this week expressed disappointment that currency manipulation policy has not been made part of the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The March soybean futures contract price fell by 8.75 cents/bushel today, apparently as a result of USDA reporting an exporter's cancellation of a 120,000...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey is said to have imported as much as 200,000 MT of EU rapeseed in recent months with more expected after it rejected stocks from the Black Sea when G...

CBO Issues 10-Year Outlook on Budget and Crop Prices

The report includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law over the next 10 years. It is of course a tall order to...

Good Vibes; Obvious Outcomes

Unsurprising to those in the rice trade, Bangkok is now indicating that it will be dumping millions of tons of surplus rice onto the world market. PLC Tol...

Market Commentary

Biding time seems to be the dominant strategy within grain markets. Short-term strategies to scalp limited returns are expected to influence day-to-day act...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures were slightly lower much of the night session, but reversed that trend and traded slightly higher most of today's session. The only bullish...

Ethanol Industry Seeking E-30 under New Fuel Standards

According to the EPA, the petitioners' primary interests are to increase ethanol use and protect or improve their competitive position, which it maintains...

China In-Country Analysis

China's 2014 sorghum imports increased more than fivefold to 5.78 MMT from 1.08 MMT in 2013, according to China Customs. Demand was driven in part by the i...

A Peek at Weather

The major concern isn't with 2015 crop production across the Corn Belt and northern Plains, but with what could occur in 2016 and 2017. That apprehension i...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Strategie Grains has raised its EU wheat export estimate from December by 2.1 MMT to 29.3 MMT (unchanged from last year) due to Russia's export restriction...

Europe Split; New WTO Path

Without ambition, countries will use platforms other than the WTO to negotiate trade liberalization (aka Trans-Pacific Partnership, etc.). Too much ambitio...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

House Agriculture Committee’s Organizational Meeting

New Chairman Mike Conaway (R-Texas) laid out his agenda for the committee and has reorganized a number of subcommittees to better suit his announced priori...

Market Commentary

Corn had been trading unchanged to lower overnight, but the export sales numbers did bring some buying to this morning's opening.The collapse in the euro,...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's poultry sector has exerted tremendous pressure on the government to create new rules that would prohibit imports of U.S. chicken leg quarters as th...

Oilseed Highlights

Data released by China's General Administration of Customs indicated the country imported 32,005,374 MT of soybeans from Brazil, its top supplier, in CY 20...

CFTC; Hemp; Sugarcoating

Who could be against industrial hemp production? After all, the U.S. consumes more hemp products than any other country, and yet it is the only major indus...

U.S. Farm Program – the Gift That Keeps on Giving

The new farm program offers a much higher level of income protection than previously and will therefore offer a greater safeguard from an extended bear mar...

Non-Tariff Barriers; Doha Nowhere

WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo thinks that heads of delegations are going to come up with a Doha work plan by July, but the gulf remains too wide to...

Market Commentary

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a quantitative easing (QE) program to begin in March. What was not expected is its size. Meanwhile,...

China and Grain Sorghum Excitement

Much of grain sorghum's sudden rise in China is due to government policies, announced or not, designed to protect the price of domestic corn production.If...

Court Case Precedent on Manure Management

In a district court case decided last week in the state of Washington, a judge applied the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) to dairy manure fo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

EU Science; ISIS Wins; Protection Up and Down

The newly sworn-in U.S. Senate voted this week to table (against) a "Buy America" requirement as part of the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline...

Market Commentary

Technically, the corn market has moved away from the upward trend that has prevailed since October and appears to be looking for a new lower trading range...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Only 6,855 MT of 5th grade wheat were bought in the course of Russia's market intervention trading session on 20 January. The volume of grains available fo...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine wheat acreage has been in steady decline during the past few years due to government efforts to control domestic bread prices. This has depressed...

Corn Market Anomaly

Noncommercial traders still retain a net long of about 244,000 contracts as of 13 January. This is a huge long position, given that the fundamental outlook...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

SOTU; Ethanol; Russia; Rhetoric

It must be something about the position, because UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Director General José Graziano da Silva is now making the same...

Market Commentary

The grains and soy complex started out this holiday-shortened week weaker across the board in overnight trade. Soybeans continued to stay that way, but cor...

President Obama to Deliver State of the Union Address

A few items likely to be covered tonight in the SOTU that are of more direct interest to agriculture are the proposed treatment of capital gains in the pre...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

MENA wheat importers report that Russia is making wheat exports more difficult in advance of its new export duty set to begin 1 February. The expansion of...

Oilseed Highlights

While soymeal demand is down in Europe for several reasons, USDA has surprisingly increased its forecast for EU soymeal consumption in 2014/15 by 400,000 M...

Market Commentary

The important news in the soy complex today was USDA's announcement of the cancellation of 285,000 MT of U.S. soybean sales to China. No one knows if this...

Tax Reform Assigned to Senate Working Groups

The working groups are to submit their reports to the Finance Committee by May 2015. However, it will be surprising if this process moves quickly, if at al...

Money; Cuba; TPP

Politicians and financial market players are fond of blaming one another, but they are really quite similar. Each believes they should be perpetually takin...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India's 2014/15 wheat production is expected to exceed last year's, its areas under pulses and oilseeds have been reduced. This is expected to have f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

A Long Week in the Markets

The week began with the Monday release of USDA's reports, which were not as bearish corn or as bullish soybeans as many had expected. Today's announcement...

WASDE

The January WASDE, released this week, included the updated year-end 2014 estimates showing red meat production up from the December report and supported s...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets were modestly higher overnight ahead of USDA's weekly export sales report and the National Oilseed Processor Association's (NOPA's) D...

WUS; Jones Act; BsAs

The U.S. EPA released a 408-page technical report detailing 1,200 peer-reviewed scientific studies that it believes justifies its proposed regulation of mo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Too Much Wheat, Too Little Demand

Large production increases and limited demand growth lead to enlarging stocks, and that is what is happening to world wheat supplies as well as those of th...

Oilseed Highlights

Insufficient rainfall is becoming a growing concern for soybean farmers in the Brazilian states of Goias and Mato Grosso. Meteorologists say this may no lo...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

USDA data released on Monday confirmed that global supplies are abundant, and any prospect of South American farmers soon being rescued by escalating price...

Market Commentary

Corn futures prices tumbled about a dime on bearish technical signals and growing stocks of ethanol that will likely lead to lower production and therefore...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

It was announced that  Ukraine is not going to introduce restrictions on grain exports and that the total MY 2014/15 grain export volume may reach 33...

Biofuel Policy; TTIP Trouble

Falling oil prices will redistribute money away from producers and to consumers, but the question is whether biofuel policy adjusts in a timely and correct...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The sharp rise in China's soybean imports for CY 2014 supports the view that hundreds of millions of Chinese are still increasing their consumption of anim...

Two Views Times Two

The European Parliament finally voted into law the right of EU member states to deny the planting of biotech crops otherwise approved for safety by the Bru...

Understanding the U.S. Crude Oil Market

The boom in U.S. crude oil production has been a game changer in terms of handling and refining crude oil as well as supply. This is impacting the market a...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The Egyptian government is discussing the reopening of government-owned dairy operations that were all but totally closed down in 2008 after years of falli...

Market Commentary

The day session was not quiet as traders refined their collective responses to yesterday's series of reports from USDA. The results were wide trading range...

After the Reports, What Now?

Pondering the combined reports as a whole, we cannot escape the bottom-line feeling that their overall tone is bearish. However, there are several "passage...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The market is still trying to evaluate the impact of Russia's export tax that is scheduled to be implemented 1 February, and exporters are reluctant to mak...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Beaks with Teeth; Sugar Beating

The newly announced Chinese ban against imports of poultry and eggs from the U.S. due to a high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the Pacific N...

Looking At Trade: Labor Strikes and Bearish Oil Impacts

The big story in the U.S. 2014 trade balance came in two chapters with the first being the labor dispute at the West Coast ports and the second concerning...

USDA Reports Send Mixed Signals

Many analysts were expecting smaller harvested acres of corn and soybeans. We received the opposite today with an increase in both of those as well as a su...

China In-Country Analysis

With a number of Chinese processors preferring imported corn over domestic due to the former's lower price and higher quality, there are many applications...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed overnight in extremely light trading volume ahead of today's 12 pm (EST) USDA reports. The direction of the markets and the volume of tr...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has expressed the industry's concern that some mills will soon file for debt reconstruction due to difficulties p...

Market Commentary

Markets were quietly mixed in overnight trade, and that pattern held through much of today's session as well. Traditional funds are estimated to be long 51...

State Court, House and Senate Committees All Boost Keystone

Today the House of Representatives passed a bill to authorize construction of the Keystone XL pipeline just hours after the Nebraska Supreme Court upheld t...

USDA Report Preview

The quarterly corn stocks estimate is the one that always seems to hold unexpected news for the market. Surprises in this report will be as significant as...

Whipsawed Meat; Sinking Ship; Border Success

It is easy to focus on headline issues like the failed U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) requirement, but U.S. and Mexican officials this week noted s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

India's Solvent Extractors Association yesterday released protein export data for December 2014. The report indicated the month's soymeal exports totaled 1...

Market Commentary

The wheat market was the loss leader again with old crop contracts of Chicago and KC wheat falling 11-12 cents to the lowest level in about five weeks. The...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

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