Jordan has increased the price paid to farmers for local wheat to $635/MT in the hope of increasing local production, while import quality wheat can be pur...
Articles
Lower Prices Will Mean Smaller Margins
The six-year run of high commodity prices coupled with generally good yields and record net farm income have also allowed all of the ancillary industries t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Tthe wheat quality in Europe has suffered from the excessive rains during the harvest and seems to have deteriorated the most in France. As a consequence,...
Railroad Backlog Emerging as Market and Regulatory Issue
The railroads report that they are working on solutions to the rail backup problem for the fall grain harvest season, and BNSF projects that it is on track...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Wheat could only manage a steady to slightly weaker day today as soybeans were very strong and corn closed a nickel higher. The market's attitude is still...
China In-Country Analysis
Although China has announced a record harvest this summer, a major concern among rural development researchers is sustainability, considering the combinati...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Wheat turned positive, corn tried to get back to unchanged and soybeans cut their losses significantly by mid-morning. All of the markets remain oversold t...
Republicans and Democrats Versus EPA
Two sets of U.S. senators met with administration officials this week to discuss actions pending at U.S. EPA and came away with very different reactions.Tw...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India's monsoon has somewhat rebounded, farming communities have been impacted by the delayed rains. Rural demand is diminishing with crop selection...
Horseless; Knowledge
Europe stymies beef imports while concurrently shorting the animal feed market, which collectively makes meat higher-priced for consumers and also creates...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Credit Suisse announced this week that it will exit its commodity trading business after reporting a second quarter loss of $779 million, much of which is...
Oilseed Highlights
While many in the Indian soybean industry have hopes the country's crop yields and planted area will rise in the future, the prevailing view is that it wil...
Meaning?; RFS; Correction
Antagonists on both sides of the Atlantic have complained about a lack of transparency in the TTIP negotiations. Now a recently leaked copy of the EU's dra...
Global Pork Overview: Tale of Two Markets
While those countries most impacted by the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) are seeing record-high pork prices, others are experiencing a much more b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
How Big is Big and the Consequences
As the growing season has progressed, discussions about potential yields and crop sizes have come to dominate markets. However, it may turn out to be a mem...
Market Commentary
The increased trading activity overnight carried over into the day session, especially in the soy complex. However, the enthusiasm over higher prices dimme...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American producers have more problems and less financial support than their North American counterparts, and such difficulties could easily transitio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets have been greatly oversold, as we have observed before, and were due for a bounce. So when the soy complex began to exert a little upward muscle, c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that 1.007 MMT of grain were exported as of 16 July 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 as Ukraine expo...
Pests; Broken; Sequence; Data
Brussels continues to rebut U.S. complaints about its biotech approval system, but not a single approval has occurred this year despite repeated safety cle...
Oilseed Highlights
China's soymeal exports rose to 301,731 MT in June, a 128 percent increase over a year ago. The sharp rise has been driven primarily by a shortage of India...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
In light of recent large fines levied by the U.S. government on financial institutions for avoiding strict Sudanese trade sanctions, many banks and trading...
CBO Releases Long-Term Budget Outlook
The 2011 and 2014 budget deals and the 2013 sequester have made a significant difference in total federal spending, mostly in the discretionary area, but h...
A Bore; Reality
India commercially exports rice, soymeal and wheat, invests in a space program and has now committed billions to a BRICS bank. All the while, it claims pov...
Market Commentary
Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop condition report set the tone for today's corn market. The 76 percent good/excellent rating so late in July along with 56...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
World Wheat Outlook
Wheat is still considered politically significant, especially in certain countries where it is the principal agricultural crop or a principal food. If worl...
Projected Returns Drop below Break-Even Levels
The implication going forward is that corn acres are in jeopardy for the 2015 crop year under the current market price structure. Soybeans have had a signi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
It is worthwhile noting that index funds are reportedly still holding about 300,000 long corn contracts. Corn condition ratings were unchanged in today's r...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The weather remained unstable in Romania and Bulgaria last week, impacting the harvest. Exporters in Bulgaria are only offering feed wheat at the moment as...
China In-Country Analysis
The latest USDA 30 June Acreage Report helped push down soybean futures significantly. As a result, Chinese soybean trading companies and crushers were hit...
More Scrutiny for EPA’s Waters of the U.S. Rule
To date, the one EPA action that has triggered a complaint by the National Farmers Union (NFU) is the setting of the 2014 biofuels volumes, which its lette...
TTIP Angst; Local Joke
Those on the U.S. agriculture side express disappointment that Brussels is still pushing geographic indicators in TTIP discussions, while bringing nothing...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bring on the Heat
Extended forecasts released yesterday continue to point toward cooler than normal temperatures for most of the Corn Belt. This means the soy complex could...
Laughing; Ukraine; Hopeful and Concerning
It is Republicans who would be on the defensive in November if they are blocking a TPP agreement that has strong support from the business community. Laugh...
APHIS Withdraws GE Information Sharing Rule
The purpose of the rule was to help state and tribal governments better review and comment on the notifications and permit applications received by APHIS a...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India has been challenged over its recently enacted Food Security Act that is viewed by developed nations as a violation of the WTO Bali agreement, s...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures turned higher at the opening bell this morning on more USDA soybean sales announcements. Wheat futures turned sharply lower, which pulled c...
Look Out; Expensive Straw
Given that the EU has refused to adopt science-based SPS measures and Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has just promised the European Parliament that bord...
Market Commentary
Corn futures closed fractionally higher in consolidating trade on both sides of yesterday's closes. The Malaysian plane disaster lit up the market, briefly...
Trading Market Spreads 101
The strategy of buying a futures contract in a nearby time frame, then selling it just before that contract expires and replacing it by purchasing a more d...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
FSIS Proposes Retailer Traceability for Ground Beef
USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has proposed new regulations to provide more information on the beef that is used for grinding, which woul...
Oilseed Highlights
Germany's biofuel industry association today said a new greenhouse gas reduction scheme passed yesterday is likely to result in reduced biofuel consumption...
Awaiting Default; Miscellany
USDA's Economic Research Service looked at mandatory and discretionary SPS measures for imported fruits and vegetables versus actual trade flows and conclu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
An interesting development is occurring in Brazil with the Paranagua paper market, which is normally used as a hedge and reference for farmers, traders and...
Market Commentary
Wheat reluctantly followed corn higher overnight, but Chicago and KC contracts gave it all back by the end of the day session and closed mixed. MGE spring...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Harvesting is difficult in the eastern regions of Ukraine where the anti-terrorist operation is in progress, and some areas in Luhanska and Donetska oblast...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
World Corn Outlook for 2014/15
We expect that estimated U.S. corn production will rise close to 14 billion bushels and, moreover, that favorable conditions for other important corn-growi...
Farm Bill Payments Could Be Coming
USDA's latest WASDE report puts the new Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) programs more in play with news of good crop conditio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
After being down as much as 16 cents, new crop November soybeans fought their way back to close unchanged. They even traded in green numbers briefly. Their...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina's biodiesel exports fell sharply in 2013 as a result of the anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU. In response, the Argentine government initiate...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iraqi grain traders advise that it has become impossible for Syria to deliver the wheat to Iraq that was arranged in June 2013 as truckers are not able to...
Organic Mush; Domain Angst
Europe's wine industry is in a dispute with the internet domain body called ICANN. The industry fears that new domain categories called .wine and .vin coul...
Financial Readjustment
Farmers have used the bonus depreciation allowance aggressively for several consecutive years to buy new equipment and build new farm facilities to reduce...
Lesser Prairie Chickens and Zimbabwean Elephants
Kansas has announced that it will oversee the breeding of Lesser Prairie Chickens (LPCs) for release into habitat. Although the concept in relation t...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean futures were showing double-digit gains most of the day, while corn trailed far behind with 3-4 cent gains. U.S. financial markets were v...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) issued a policy document aimed at reducing food loss during grain production. One of the notable reasons behind this...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Starting tomorrow, the EU will introduce an import levy on corn that is based on the last 10 day-average price of U.S. corn to Rotterdam versus the EU's ma...
Farm Bill Implementation Hearing
Congress made a number of major changes to crop support programs, and farmers will be faced with some decision-making regarding new coverage options. It is...
USDA Numbers Bearish as Expected
USDA did not raise the corn or soybean yields in the July WASDE, and most analysts believe that will occur in August. Increased yields, of course, will mea...
Market Commentary
As expected, today's release of the July WASDE added to the overall bearish tone to the market that has persisted since USDA's quarterly stocks reports and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China; Trade; India; Water
Some trade policy analysts are convinced that politics will prevent any progress on trade agreements this year. Yet the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) neg...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's 2014/15 budget attempts to target economic growth at 7–8 percent over a three-four year period after less than 5 percent growth for the past two ye...
Rooster Impotence
Broiler production expansion has been somewhat lagging in the past two years for several reasons, and now the major breeding stock provider Aviagen Group h...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Review: Examining China
China's Broad Developments China is spending money on agriculture and trading futures, but self-sufficiency remains an unlikely outcome. China Pork Revolut...
Oilseed Highlights
Coca Cola and Pepsi have announced they will remove brominated vegetable oil (BVO) from many of their popular soft drinks, but not because the FDA has foun...
Better TF; Emotions
Trade Facilitation (TF), the WTO concept agreed to at Bali last year for reducing and making transparent the transactional costs that governments impose on...
The “Noisy” Uptick of Food Prices
It is the costs of food and energy that affect consumers first and impact them most, especially those with lower incomes, and those prices are on the rise...
Market Commentary
USDA will release its July WASDE numbers at 12 PM (EDT) tomorrow. That also gave us some choppy trade today, but volume was very good in corn and soybeans...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices continued to leak lower, although at a somewhat less frenetic pace. Some non-commercials appear to be putting on short positio...
Doomed; Ditch; Big Guns
For the industry and services sectors, agriculture has always been a thorn when it comes to trade negotiations. That remains the case, but a heartening app...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Approximately 63 MMT of grain may be harvested in Ukraine for MY 2014/15, which would be one of the largest in the country's history. Grain and port...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Recent declines in CBOT futures prices extend out through 2015 and are making South American producers nervous about the future margins that they can expec...
Debate over Economic News
A number of economic reports for June were released last Thursday, and the news is now full of debate about whether these new statistical indicators are go...
Marketing Impacts
The U.S. originally opposed a dispute settlement mechanism in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement on issues surrounding Sanitary and Phytosanitar...
Oilseed Highlights
As a result of insufficient rainfall in key growing areas, India's soybean plantings as of 4 July are reported to be about 90 percent less than the 4.3 mil...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The selling pace in the corn market has slowed as the December contract gradually slips towards the $4.00 level. Friday's corn supply and demand should not...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
While Turkey's demand for both soybeans and soymeal is rising due to expansion in the poultry and livestock sector, it can only be met by increasing import...
Weather, Crops and Prices
Ever since USDA began providing this year's first weekly crop condition reports up to the present, the conditions reported for corn and soybeans have spark...
Climate Change Impact on Agriculture
Potential impacts of climate change that do not consider agricultural adaptation are of limited use and insight. This is a long-term trend, so anticipating...
Surreal in Nigeria and other Policy Curiosities
Nigerian Minister of Agriculture Akinwumi Adesina went to great lengths to assure the public that biotechnology was not being used in Nigerian agricu...
Market Commentary
Excluding the liquidating July contracts, today's highs for soybean and corn futures contracts never came close to last Thursday's closes. Despite the mark...
It’s a Lonely Time for Bulls
The traditional speculative trading funds are now holding a major short position in wheat (near a record) and have exited their long positions in corn and...
China In-Country Analysis
China's rejection of U.S. DDGS has resulted in those cargoes being resold to its neighbors, which are also the major export destination markets for i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
One Long-Term View
The first thing catching our attention is that while the U.S. 2014 soybean plantings rose more than 8 million acres higher than last year and the new 2014...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TTIP Titanic; U.S. Myopic
U.S. aggies have shared tough talk with European officials about their expectations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and EU A...
COOL Attracts Attention Outside of Ag
The COOL Reform Coalition, representing a diverse group of businesses, has sent a letter to Congress urging USDA to abandon its implementing rule for the l...
Oilseed Highlights
The combined Argentine and Brazilian biodiesel production is forecast to rise by 1 MMT in 2014, driven by Brazil's increase in the mandatory biodiese...
Market Commentary
Today's holiday-shortened session again featured, if that is the right word, lower corn and soybean prices. The 4th of July holiday is typically the point...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The bearish result of USDA's data on Monday is causing adjustments to occur in South American pricing of corn and soybeans. Increasing the complexity of th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
On 1 July, the European Commission Standing Committee on the Food Chain and Animal Health approved cancellation of the current restrictions on imports of U...
Silly; Litigation Please
The Obama administration has consistently shown its belief in the efficacy of biotechnology, and its next step should be preparing the legal briefs for a W...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures continued to slump lower in the aftermath of USDA's estimate of 84.8 million soybean acres, visions of a 3.8 or 3.9 billion bushel soybean...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey may pull out of its customs union with the EU if the EU/U.S. Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is ratified without its inclusion...
Huge Increase in U.S. Soybean Plantings: Now What?
If the U.S. does produce a huge soybean crop this fall that causes soybean prices to fall well below $10/bushel, the greatest short-term impact likely will...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Some Post-Report Thoughts
There is now probably not much to be said about yesterday's USDA stock and acreage reports that is new. However, there are a few things gleaned from them t...
Market Commentary
There is no doubt that USDA's acreage and stocks estimates combined with the fancy weekly crop condition ratings have suddenly created a very bearish envir...
Conservation Compliance for Crop Insurance Rule Issued
Section 2611 of the 2014 Farm Bill links a farmer's eligibility for the premium crop insurance subsidy to compliance with conservation provisions of the 19...
Biotech; Policy Shorts
Since a recent study acknowledges that organic foods are garnering market share by stoking fears about biotech, the conventional food industry should deman...
USDA Reports Bearish
The quarterly stocks numbers for corn and soybeans were slightly bearish. The soybean number at 405 million bushels was 27 million bushels higher than expe...
China In-Country Analysis
It was announced on 24 June that China will revise its food safety law to include tougher rules for safety and stricter supervision. However, decentralized...
Swine Herd Down More Than Anticipated
A reduction in the swine herd due to the impact of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) had been anticipated, and analysts had expected USDA's quarte...
Market Commentary
USDA's soybean acreage estimate blew the market away, coming in nearly 3 million acres above the March estimate. Corn stocks were 100 million bushels above...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Most analysts are now predicting that the 2014 Russian and Ukrainian crops will be higher than last year with Russia's estimated at 52-54 MMT and Ukraine's...
Market Commentary
Standard commodity analysts may soon adjust their stories to proclaim, "Production will be large but demand is even larger!" Similar market dialog occurred...
Fresh; Leverage; Rant
The White House is withholding a $277 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) aid package to El Salvador until that country ends a domestic corn and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
CBO Issues Report on the RFS
The purpose of the report was to address concerns among policy makers and analysts about the feasibility of meeting the higher standards for blending biofu...
Does Rain Make Grain or Not?
Everyone associates crop stress with heat and dryness. It can also be caused by too much water, and this is starting to attract some attention as the rains...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Following pressure from the sugar lobby, largely the cooperatives, GOI has agreed to bail out the sugar industry once again and has increased the import du...
Elements of Beef Expansion
Herd expansion still relies on the profitability of the cow-calf sector, which is easy to forget with record cattle prices. Retaining heifers, though, is a...
Oilseed Highlights
Demand for animal feed is on the rise in China as a result of an end to avian flu outbreaks this spring and a recovery in swine profitability. This increas...
Some Off the Wall Questions
In the course of searching for something new and different to write about, we found ourselves thinking about a variety of generally unrelated off the wall...
Policy; CAFOs; Forum Shopping
Beijing will reportedly experiment with making a deficiency payment to farmers in order to bridge the difference between the market price and what farmers...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
KC July HRW was up 7 cents as rains are again delaying harvest in Kansas and posing the threat of quality deterioration. Rains have also delayed the Mid-So...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Because of inconsistent export policies out of Argentina and recent declines in regional exportable wheat supplies, the Brazilian government will reduce th...
World Perspectives on the Move
Please note that World Perspectives has changed locations and our new address is: 1301 Pennsylvania Ave. NW Suite 501, Washington, DC 20004 Please...
Spanking; Rules
U.S. trade negotiators are asserting that regulatory convergence under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will offer more safety dat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian grain producers will need 1.5 billion m3 of natural gas to dry the grain and oilseed crops to be harvested in 2014 and want guarantees from the g...
Market Commentary
Funds certainly did not show anxiety over the size of their July positions today. Prior to the market opening, there were still about 142,000 contracts of...
Market Commentary
Corn futures closed lower on favorable weather prospects that encourage thoughts of an above trend yield. Old crop soybeans and the old crop/new crop sprea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Federal Reserve Mostly Staying the Course
There was some expectation that the Federal Reserve Board would address the federal funds rate in a more aggressive manner than it did, but the official wo...
30 June and Beyond
The 30 June acreage figures will be etched in stone at the top of everyone's 2014/15 supply/demand estimates for the entire crop year until or unless they...
Oilseed Highlights
The European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) has determined that Monsanto's MON 88302 biotech rapeseed event is safe for human and animal health and poses no thr...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
According to the FAO, Egypt's wheat and corn crops this year will be slightly above average size this year, but it expects that the country will have to im...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The excessive rains that have persisted in Bulgaria and Romania for more than two months peaked last Thursday night. Farmers in the most severely affected...
China In-Country Analysis
The 17 June state soybean reserves auction size was 358,558 MT. However, weak demand was evident as sales totaled only 72,852 MT, which is a lower turnover...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Fights and Battles
The war on fat, sugar and salt rivals the longstanding war over biotechnology. The latest involved a broadside from lawyers Rick Frank and Bruce Silverglad...
Global Oil Supply Buffering ISIS Impact in Iraq
While the effect of the Iraqi ISIS situation has been limited to date and the increase in U.S. and world production has provided a buffer, there are certai...
Market Commentary
There was plenty of market chatter this morning trying to explain the last minute surge in soybean and soymeal futures last Friday. Trade this week could s...
Why North Dakota Has Joined the Corn Belt
Has it been the new plant genetics that have pushed corn and soybeans farther north and west, or has it really been the shift to a Corn Belt climate across...
Looking East; Rubbish; Another FTA
Should the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) reach fruition this year, the pressure on Brussels to recalibrate will be great as capital markets have al...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of the heavy rainfall, some farmers meeting in Minnesota said they have lost as much as 10-15 percent of their crops to flooding. At this point, th...
Senate Appropriations: Minibus Parked
The Senate minibus appropriations bill, which covered the Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Transportation and Housing and Urban Development Departments, has...
Wheat is Not Just Wheat
There is only one class of corn and one of soybeans, but there are officially six classes of wheat produced in the U.S. that all have different properties...
Market Commentary
Corn futures were slightly lower overnight and early today before gradually pushing toward slightly higher. There was never any concerted selling pressure...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's new government plans to revamp the flagship scheme of its predecssor, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGA), and h...
Global Food Security Challenge
The goal of ending world hunger has always had universal support, but for many years the challenges involved in achieving this have tended to stay on the f...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Prices for Proteins at All Time High
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest release for May 2014, the seasonally adjusted prices for red meat, poultry, eggs and even fish (driven...
Oxymoronic; Alternative Motive
It is time for Congress to reassess the RFS and rewrite its requirements to match both the technical feasibility and market economics that currently prevai...
Market Commentary
Export sales were generally light, reflecting increased competition from other origins and the buyers' hopes for lower prices to come. However, we should p...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian milling wheat and feed wheat prices declined on the domestic market as farmers in the southern regions started harvesting winter wheat and have r...
Market Commentary
KC HRW futures were the star of the market today. Poor yields and fear that heavy rains might lower the quality of what is harvested coalesced to push KC J...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
End Game; Rice Price
Rice is one of those thinly traded (less than 10 percent of production moves into international trade), highly subsidized commodities that annoys everyone...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine soybean harvest is 90 percent complete, while farmer selling is only 35 percent finished, which is significantly behind the historical pace...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Morocco's Attijariwafa Bank is financing $300 million for Russian wheat purchases during the 2014/15 import period. The agreement was signed in Moscow last...
House Majority Leader and Immigration Reform
Representative Eric Cantor (R-Virginia) became the first House majority leader to be defeated in a primary, based largely on immigration. Now Representativ...
The Soybean Puzzle – Again
Why are markets ignoring all of the numbers that on paper add up to an incredibly tight supply situation?USDA's weekly crop condition report rated 76 perce...
Market Commentary
Wheat prices were lower early, reaching the lowest levels in over four months. However, this brought on some bargain hunting buying interest that helped pr...
Oilseed Highlights
Global biodiesel production has grown to reach approximately 29.12 MMT this year and has become the market for about 7.3 MMT of soyoil, 9.6 MMT of palm oil...
It Could Be a Slow Summer
There are few potential crop production problems around the world as we are heading into the last half of June. It is going to be difficult to encourage an...
New RFS Reform Proposal: U.S. Advanced Biofuel Only
The bill would require all advanced biofuels (undifferentiated advanced, biodiesel and cellulosic) to be produced in the U.S. as well as continue to meet t...
China In-Country Analysis
China's announcement on 7 June that that it would suspend the issuance of import permits for U.S DDGS has resulted in rising prices for domestic DDGS as we...
Market Commentary
Expectations of great crop ratings today coupled with few, if any, weather problems continue to pressure corn prices lower. Some analysts are now starting...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania may result in a larger share of feed versus milling wheat this year. In 2013/14, both countries exported about...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bye-Bye Bali; Common Language
India and the G-33 group of developing nations are upset that affluent WTO members are asking for more data on New Delhi's agricultural subsidies. Common L...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
CFTC Reauthorization
The House reauthorization bill contains a number of reforms and addresses many of the Dodd-Frank Act provisions. It should be able to move through that cha...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
There is hope that India's new government will bolster the economy's upward turn with revisions in policy. Industrial production rose in April 2014 as infl...
Trade and Biofuel Skids
Canadian Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz has taken a more strident position regarding agricultural trade liberalization via TPP than perhaps the Japanese a...
Too Many Shuttle Loaders
Operating margins for shuttle loaders have been exceptionally good in recent years because of good crops and strong demand, but are now becoming more compr...
Market Commentary
Wheat followed corn's gains despite the fact that Egypt bought Romanian and Russian wheat yesterday. No one expected U.S. wheat to trade. The EU reported t...
Market Commentary
Last year at this time, the red hot cash market and record high basis bids led the soy futures market to high prices and a wide old/new crop inverse. This...
Meat, Critics and Consumers
As the world recovers ever so gradually from the 2008-10 recession and its aftermath, the percentage of the world's population considered to be middle clas...
Unchlorinated; Screwy
The House will not complete the fiscal 2015 agriculture appropriations bill until next week, but already there have been some harmful amendments adopted. U...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA increased its estimates for Argentina's domestic soymeal consumption yesterday to reflect rising exports of mixed feeds. While most of these exports i...
EPA Extends Comment Period on Water Rule
This delay is considered a major tactical victory by most livestock and agriculture groups. If approved, the new guideline would effectively remove the wor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Selective; True Colors; Inequality
FAS Agricultural Counselor Allan Mustard (nominated to be U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan) has issued a report exposing how New Delhi is substantially subs...
Majority Leader Who Delayed Farm Bill Ousted in Primary
Yesterday the number two Republican in the House lost his seat in an upset primary. Ironically, Cantor has tried for two years to schedule a legislative ag...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
This year Argentine farmers have sold 1.57 MMT fewer soybeans than the total for the same date a year ago. The most important information for the market is...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Buyers in China are reported to be interested in buying Russian grain, and Rosselkhoznadzor (the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveilla...
Market Commentary
June WASDEs are seldom major market movers, and today's report was certainly was not bullish. As if by signal, there was a general across-the-board sell of...
Trade Policy: Restrictions; UnSchocked
Calculations by the EU indicate that safeguard measures against its exports rose by 10 percent in 2013, and some of the prime blockers included India, Chin...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt has decided to delay its planned increase in the price of fuel for industry, individuals and homes as the belief is that it would be bad for the over...
Market Commentary
This morning, Brazil's Conab revised its estimate of that country's 2013/14 corn production upward to 77.9 MMT, second only to last year's 81.5 MMT. M...
A Week’s Worth of Differences
The trading record shows how thoroughly the price action of November soybeans has been dominated by the July contract, which is to say, by the very tight o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
India's soybean-producing regions are expected to be particularly vulnerable to inadequate rains from this year's monsoon, and there also is concern about...
Market Commentary
The primary bearish factor hanging over the corn and soybean markets is the size of the speculative length. Exiting and rolling of positions by large specu...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Both the Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops are developing under generally favorable conditions, and most analysts estimate that the combined 2014/15 surplu...
What Happens Next?
Soybeans remain the wild card. The big money refuses to let go of the soybean market despite several recent head fakes that looked like the start of a majo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ethanol Election; Studies in Failure
Biofuel policy has always been political, and now there is a reported election year effort to use EPA's final decision on the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards...
House Agenda: Where Ag Fits Into Election Year Politics
While it is likely Congress will work toward having a continuing resolution by the end of the year, three appropriations bills have been tabbed to move for...
China In-Country Analysis
Historically, China has established a minimum purchase price only for buying directly from farmers and replenishing provincial reserves. Now the central go...
Brazil’s Demands; Green Washing; Efficiency
The activist group called Anonymous has reportedly released Brazil's demands for settlement of the WTO cotton case against the U.S., and it is sure to rile...
Looking at SNAP Backward and Forward
According to the House Budget Committee report, SNAP spending that totaled $78 billion in 2012 is scheduled to decrease slightly over the next 10 years, bu...
Market Commentary
The combination of double-digit gains in both July and December corn contracts and the engulfing candlestick pattern of the prior day's close are indicativ...
Canada Legislates Better Rail Service
The uproar over the plight of Canada's rail logistics has been an issue since the 2013 harvest that was 50 percent larger in volume than the 10-year averag...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
To retain agriculturists in the farming business, India's government is eager to provide income security and assist the farming communities in conserving w...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of a smaller than normal soybean crop in 2013 that was also of poor quality, India is facing a shortage of soymeal this year to feed its domestic a...
Market Commentary
A somewhat interesting development in the soy complex is that old crop contracts appeared weaker than new crop in both soybeans and meal. That condition ne...
Research Misdirection and Adequacy; Food and Weapons
There is gnashing of the teeth by some in Washington because public funding of agricultural research is largely ignored. However, this ignores two importan...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Protein Consumption Still Down with Lower Feed Costs
2014 feed costs are projected down about $6 billion from last year, a drop of more than 11 percent. However, the bow wave effect of high feed costs is stil...
Ag Review: The Middle East and U.S. Agriculture
Middle East Squeeze The energy abundance brought about by the fracking boom is causing OPEC heartache and could eventually spark another Middle East food c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Buying into the present downward trend in corn contracts does seem to make sense for the trader who has sufficient capital and a realistically defined exit...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A number of South American corn exporters are very scared by the current pricing dynamics because they need movement through the ports, storehouses and oth...
Turk, Pak, Braz; Food Religion
It is entirely feasible that a settlement in the WTO cotton case will involve U.S. taxpayers subsidizing Brazilian cotton farmers so that they can continue...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's 2014 winter grains harvest is forecasted at 26.2 MMT, almost 1 MMT more than in 2013. The increase is expected as a result of the gain in average...
EPA Clean Air Plan: Biomass Options Questioned
Perhaps the most telling comment from EPA's Science Advisory Board (SAB) was the recommendation to benchmark electric generation with an ethanol plan...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft again overnight with the soy complex leading the way lower. That softness turned into a much harder downturn once the regular day trading...
Political Instability in Ukraine – the Fertilizer Fallout
A major determinant for the competitiveness of Ukrainian fertilizer on global export markets is its cash cost of production, and the country's current conf...
Oilseed Highlights
The current marketing year is on track for the combined U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil to set a record. There is also an expectation that thi...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt is considering revisions to its wheat import specifications, particularly moisture, which could once again enable the importation of French wheat. GA...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Unintended; False; Survey Says
The group People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) has sparked furor with its "Got Autism?" campaign that seeks to link consumption of dairy prod...
Market Commentary
It was another interesting day in the soy complex. July futures went right down to technical support at $14.78 overnight and then reversed course when the...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania are threatening the wheat quality there as the moisture favors the spreading of diseases. These rains are often cou...
Land Rents Headed Down?
The longer-term reality is that unless there is a crop production problem someplace this year that significantly changes the U.S. or world supply situation...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
China's soymeal price fluctuated up to $654/MT during the week of 26 May as most of the country's large and mid-sized feed producers are stocking up ...
EPA Clean Air Plan: What to Watch for in Ag Impacts
If this plan survives inevitable court challenges, there will be an opportunity for EPA to move this model on to other sectors such as agriculture, particu...
Global Biodiesel Roundup
Argentina, the world's top biodiesel exporter, is considering a proposed reaction to the EU's imposition of anti-dumping duties on its biodiesel and is als...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India's milk demand rises for many reasons, the sourcing of good, quality milk is one of the main concerns for the large dairy processing companies as s...
Cow Paddy; Madness; Bogus; Sailed
The Cairns Group, a coalition of agricultural exporting countries, is trying to reinvigorate WTO negotiations for placing stronger limits on domestic farm...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
All markets gradually succumbed to moderate selling pressure as the day wore on. Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower by noon. It was also the last trad...
What About Argentina?
Seemingly lost in all of the soybean market talk is anything relevant to Argentina. It has been in the background for a very long time for many reasons, ne...
Market Commentary
Volume picked up somewhat during the day session in which corn prices ground lower, wheat gave up its overnight gains to join corn in the red and soybeans...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Super-Villainous GMOs
When we think of superhero/super-villain movies and their common characteristics, it is really not a big stretch to compare them to the strident controvers...
Poultry Leading Mergers and Acquisition Activity
Feed costs for poultry producers are down about 19 percent year-over-year and demand for chicken is strong, given the high prices caused by reduced beef an...
Trade Agreements; Speculation; Approps; Biotech
European filmmakers and EU culture ministers are reportedly rallying against the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, chargi...
Oilseed Highlights
Why has the U.S. sold almost five times as much soymeal for export in the next marketing year than the average sold in the previous three marketing years a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia is reported to have exported 24.104 MMT of grain as of 21 May 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14. However, a Rusagrotrans official expects Ju...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Chinese buyers continued to purchase old crop soybeans from Brazil for June-August. In contrast, the Argentine market remains very quiet, although there is...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The grain and soy futures market price action has evolved into a contest between extremely tight old crop soybean supplies and old crop futures and just ab...
Fuzzy Econ and Science; Biotech and Biofuel
U.S. EPA proposed a reduction in the biofuel mandate, but is reportedly considering walking back a bit on the decision. Lending credence to that outcome is...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Contracts have been awarded in Egypt for the building of two UAE-financed wheat silos there. These are the first two in the joint UAE/Egypt project to buil...
MCC/TF; Denials; Shorts
Ideas of all stripes can be threatening to some, but Europe faces the unique risk of completely offshoring the pursuit of scientific ideas. Tie MCC to TF T...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Election Year Issues Kick in: EPA in Crosshairs
Senate Agriculture Committee Republicans have signed a letter to EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy regarding a number of regulatory matters before the agency...
Oilseed Highlights
Industry officials yesterday indicated the Brazilian government is expected tomorrow to increase the minimum amount of biodiesel to be blended into diesel...
Market Commentary
The corn market is signaling technical weakness, and we wonder how long discretionary fund longs will be willing to hang on. They need a weather problem to...
Spring Into Summer
USDA's initial projections for U.S. 2014/15 crop production in the May WASDE seemed quite optimistic at the time they were released in the midst of the ear...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With prevailing heat wave conditions and indications of a delayed monsoon, several Indian states have issued an advisory stipulating a delay in crop planti...
Market Commentary
Corn was steady to 1-2 higher much of the session in trading volume that was something less than half of normal levels ahead of the long weekend. China wil...
Once Again We Underestimate Fund Demand
Back eight or nine years ago when the ethanol boom happened and drove prices of everything to new all-time highs, much of that new buying was generated by...
Morals; Uncertainty; Baloney
The EU's import ban of seal products on "public moral concerns" was upheld by the WTO Appellate Body and could greatly broaden the use of moral claims for...
Ag Appropriations Moving Forward
Both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees are working within the constraints of keeping total discretionary funding at $1.014 trillion, which cam...
Market Commentary
With two weeks of the crop year left to account for, wheat shipments are more than 120 million bushels below USDA's estimate. There seems no way that gap c...
Choosing a Cat Fight
Washington offers multiple and varied opportunities to engage in the agricultural policy debate, and today presented two competing options that are both an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Data released yesterday by China's General Administration of Customs indicates Chinese soybean processors have sharply increased their soymeal exports in t...
Reprise: The U.S. and World Grain Prices
The recent price movements of the world's most widely-watched soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts have called to mind once again the question of what...
FY 2015 Appropriations Bill
The House passed the agricultural appropriations bill for FY 2015 yesterday, and its biggest controversy revolves around USDA efforts to make school lunche...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released the minutes from its April meeting today, and the stock market seemed to like what it read. General Comments The U.S...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil needs to seriously consider trade issues as it may become the leading soybean exporter next season. Minister of Agriculture Neri Geller declared tha...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As of 16 May, Ukraine's grain exports totaled 30.5 MMT, 43.2 percent more than during the same period in the previous market year. Included were 8.8 MMT of...
Dark Prince; Breakthrough
China will correctly exploit science, technology and mechanization to advance its own agricultural production, but it will err if it worries about the Lest...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Soybean Market Fun and Games
The soybean futures market seems to ignore the seemingly inevitable, bearish shift in soybean supply/demand fundamentals in 2014/15. It is almost as though...
Market Commentary
It was a rather strange day for grain and soy markets, which saw prices swinging in wide trading ranges. General Comments It was a rather strange day for...
GI Campaign
The EU is subsidizing an education campaign in the U.S. with the goal of having its farmers clamor for geographic indicators (GIs), but the trick is for Br...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Chamber of Commerce in Egypt has announced that it is working with four banks there to provide financing for the expansion of the poultry industry in U...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farmland, Credit Conditions and the Fed’s Exit Strategy
We've been in a period of low interest rates and high commodity prices that have helped drive up farm real estate values. Now the Federal Reserve is consid...
Oilseed Highlights
There are indications that at least five more cargoes of Brazilian soybeans are ether on their way to the U.S. or soon will be. Additional shipments of Bra...
Reorganizing USDA for Trade
Given the importance and volatility of non-tariff trade barrier issues, the catalyst behind the reorganization was the need to have a central trade authori...
India’s Election Result and the Global Phosphates Market
The prospect of a new government with a strong economic agenda has recently helped the INR recoup some of its losses, which could result in improved afford...
Wobbles; Cost of Purity; Traps
A House Agriculture Appropriations subcommittee considers a $20.9 billion FY 2015 funding bill tomorrow that would provide the Farm Service Agency with a $...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Issue of Rail Logistics
The situation in Canada is far worse than in the U.S., and all of this has prompted much talk about how long the logistical problems will last. Some are ev...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) and Ministry of Education together recently launched the "Training Plan for New Type Professional Farmers." This init...
Market Commentary
Soybeans again defied all of the bearish fundamental inputs and rallied sharply on significant fund buying. That left many in the trade looking for a solid...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The heavy pressure on the Black Sea market last week was driven by the multinational trading houses after the collapse of the futures' markets in the U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
New Farm Program: Choices Ahead
Congress made a number of significant changes to crop support programs with the Agricultural Act of 2014, and farmers must make a one-time enrollment choic...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
This late spring will result in fewer corn acres across the Northern Plains. North Dakota, for example, was expected to plant 2.95 million acres of corn in...
Market Commentary
November soybean futures were again about the only agricultural commodity to trade on the plus side today. China said it will sell 300,000 MT of soybeans f...
Dying for Rice; Faithless; Naked Tommy
It is hard to complain after pondering the conditions in North Korea where it is reported that Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has ordered up some reforms in ag...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Mr.Narendra Modi, known to be very pro-technology, is expected to be India's new prime minister with the predicted landslide victory for the Hindu-dominate...
Market Commentary
Good wheat crop prospects elsewhere, the lack of demand from importers and lower offers from Black Sea sellers seem to have overcome the impact of the drou...
Oilseed Highlights
Lieutenant General Mi Zhenyu, former deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Military Science, recently wrote that the inclusion of soybean protein from...
Killing; Disclosure; El Niño
There is a very vocal opposition to TTIP in Europe, and politics will shift further against it when EU Parliament elections next week likely empower more p...
The Market’s Next Task
For the past three years, strong market prices were needed to encourage sufficient crop production to meet growing demand. The next task for the market to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Second BSE Case in Brazil
The cow was born on a farm it never left and where animals are fed by pasture grazing and mineral salts, rather than manufactured feed. Korea, Egypt, Peru...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Shipments of Argentine soybeans are quite delayed this season due to a late harvest, quality issues and problems in the port of Necochea that limit the dra...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grains seemed neglected during the overnight session as witnessed by a very light trading volume. After a slow and mixed start, the day session saw more tr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Ihor Shvaika met with EU commissioners on 13 May to discuss trade-related issues and further developme...
Trade Policy Angles
One has to greatly sympathize with the conclusions reached by Copa-Cogeca, Europe's central farm organization, that the EU Commission's pursuit of a trade...
U.S.-Korea FTA Under Fire with Implications for TPP
Four Democratic members of the House of Representatives issued a press release criticizing the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) regarding numbers related t...
Demand is the Thing
The world's combined ending stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans are projected to be almost 88 MMT greater than they were just two years prior. Said another...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Farmers in northern Argentina evidently have found a way of avoiding the nation's 35 percent export tax by smuggling their soybeans into neighboring Paragu...
HFT is Manageable
At today's Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, even Andrei Kirilenko, the former CFTC chief economist and now MIT professor brought in to critique HFT, o...
Market Commentary
It was Turnaround Tuesday for the corn and soy complex futures markets as prices rebounded from yesterday's sinking spell. The turnaround began during the...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The trade reports that Egypt's payment for government-purchased grains is slowing significantly with delays in opening letters of credit for tender purchas...
Show Me the Weather
It looks from here like wheat might have the tightest fundamentals going into MY 2014/15. Weather's impact on feed grains production (either negative or po...
Court Rejects Challenge to 2013 Biofuels Mandate
At issue were whether EPA set the 2013 RVOs too late to be valid, a precedent that will have implications for this year, and if both the overall and advanc...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
For the moment, the trend of increasing quality that was observed in the Bulgarian and Romanian wheat crop during the past five years will be reversed as f...
Market Commentary
Evidently, the funds that have been long decided to start liquidating some of that length following last Friday's USDA reports as well as what appears to b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
China's auction of state temporary soybean reserves will begin 13 May 2014, according to official sources, and it is estimated that the size will reach 3 M...
Reality; Over-Certified; Amish
Policymakers in recent years have sought ways to offset the market's tendency toward commoditization in agriculture and thus raise farmer income by extract...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Sugar Antidumping Case against Mexico
The Department of Commerce initiated an investigation last month to determine if the Mexican government has subsidized the country's sugar production and w...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were lower and soybeans mixed in very light overnight trading volume ahead of this morning's USDA reports. In spite of a bearish new...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's milk production is declining, and prices are rising with the approach of summer when demand typically increases. Stocks of skimmed milk powder (SMP...
May USDA WASDE
USDA's total U.S. wheat production estimate came in below what the trade was expecting. We also note that USDA's hard red winter wheat production estimate...
Good News, and More of the Same
It doesn't happen often, but it looks like Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the House will be sending a reauthorization of the Water Resources R...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was mixed with soybeans trying to reverse this week's downward trend, while wheat and corn were a little weaker. The day session saw simila...
Oilseed Highlights
The soybean surplus on the Chinese market will apparently worsen beginning next week as Sinograins announced today that it will auction 300,000 MT of soybe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China Stockpiling Pork
China's fresh pork prices are at their lowest point since September 2010 and down 19 percent from September of last year. As a result, the Chinese National...
Issues and Questions
While the May WASDE provides a first look at USDA's analytical insights for the following crop year, it seems the remainder of each old crop year can no lo...
Truth in Labeling
Consumer Reports has now found that 81 percent of those surveyed believe the organic label means that no pesticides were used in production, which is erron...
Diversity; Trade Policy Curiosities
Whatever was discussed between Japanese Prime Minister Abe and U.S. President Obama a few days ago becomes more curious by the day. Diversity Marketing Pla...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's annual report covering food safety has noted that measures taken by the government to stabilize the situation in agriculture will result in genera...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Chinese crushers have returned to demand soybeans from South America. Following two months of inactivity and desperate attempts to resell cargoes of prior...
Market Commentary
Based on anecdotal evidence, it seems likely that next Monday's USDA report should show corn planting progress reaching close to 60 percent, or even more,...
Trade Deficit and Energy
Energy is one of the most interesting aspects of the U.S. balance of payments account. Higher energy production in the U.S. is transforming the nation's tr...
Free Riders: Bali, Aid, Beef
African trade ministers have apparently decided to act like Cape buffalo with a decision last week that reverses their commitment at the WTO ministerial in...
Wheat Market Conundrum
The U.S. wheat futures markets are facing a dilemma. Should they price the relatively bullish wheat supply/demand balance, or the relatively bearish world...
Oilseed Highlights
The U.S. cottonseed shortage has been exacerbated by the nation's dairy and cattle feeding sectors' continued strong demand for its usage in direct feeding...
Ag Review: Commentary on Opportunities in Agriculture
Opportunity: Complementarity The TTIP negotiations are an opportunity, despite the skepticism. The challenge is overcoming all of the pitfalls and finding...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Wheat farmers in Kenya are very concerned because of an outbreak of wheat stem rust. No control for this type of wheat rust exists as it was first seen in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Unlike last year, soybean bulls are getting no help whatsoever from the cash market. Soybean crushers are relaxed, and export demand has fallen to a trickl...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
South America Highlights
Current economic dynamics in Brazil and Argentina are creating some opportunities for the agricultural sectors in both Uruguay and Paraguay. Brazil The Bra...
Anti; Mysteries; Shorts; and Surveys
France is insisting that if the EU does not invoke a ban on imports of hogs and pork as a result of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv), it will uni...
Market Commentary
It was the record-high temperatures and strong winds across the Southern Plains over the weekend that rallied wheat markets. Some weather forecasters were...
China In-Country Analysis
China's milk powder imports reached a record-high 109,000 MT in March as AQSIQ recently announced that imported milk products without labels in Chinese are...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Stats Canada released its quarterly stocks estimates this morning, and today's numbers again highlighted the magnitude of Canada's 2013 crop production. S...
Legislative Agenda for the Year
There are only about 40 scheduled days of legislative session left for the remaining 2014 legislative calendar. That leaves the Congressional schedule very...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The EU temporary ban on imports of select Indian fruit and vegetables could have wide implications for a variety of other produce subject to the same quara...
U.S. HRW Wheat Crop Collapsing
The smallest HRW production number going all the way back more than 45 years was 620 million bushels in 2002, although It's not likely we can see a disaste...
Tokenism; Fishy; Man Bites Dog
Members of Congress have demanded that Japan agree to zero tariffs on agricultural products, but they apparently will not be getting their wish. Tokenism E...
Market Commentary
Wheat had a great deal of bullish news today, which started with the Kansas crop tour results. General Comments Markets were slightly higher in quiet overn...
Expanding the Foodie Concept
Recognizing the intellectual superiority of small, local and organic over conventionally-produced foods, a new initiative will seek to mimic the approach i...
Economy Poised for Second Quarter Growth in 2014
Consumer spending was unusually strong as it surged 0.9 percent in March, the largest gain since 2005 with the exception of one month in 2009. The release...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Given what was happening with soybeans and corn, today's price break by CME wheat seemed about in line, and KC HRW's losses actually appear rather modest...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
What is Meant
European Commission President José Durâo Barroso is in Washington, and his message is that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreem...
State of the Livestock Industry
Trade was a major topic covered by most of the witnesses testifying at yesterday's hearing held by the Livestock, Rural Development and Credit subcommittee...
Old Perceptions and New Perceptions
It occurs to us that if nothing else, the flipping of the calendar page to May will force a re-examination of the perceptions that directed the market's pr...
Oilseed Highlights
The government of China recently issued its first official Agricultural Outlook Report, covering the period 2014-2023. Among other projections in the repor...
Policy Shorts
U.S. House Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee Chair David Nunes (R-California) warned today that if President Obama fails to compel Congressional passage...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina remains largely out of the global soybean market as exporters are not offering beans with regular quality (basis 34 percent, minimum 34.5 percent...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices for the 2014 Russian grain harvest are expected to be influenced equally by both political and climate-related factors. Due to the pending holidays,...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures prices, led by KC HRW, responded to pessimistic reports from the Plains HRW crop tour and little sign of drought relief in the offing. Genera...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
HFCS Trends: Red Bull a Bear for Corn Sweetener
Energy drinks were a $350 million market in 2000 and reached about $9 billion in 2013, a 2,471 percent growth. Red Bull is the category's market leader.Bac...
Welfare; Betrayal; Externalities
If one believes the organic industry, it produces more ethical food that is safer and more nutritious. Some in the organic community now want to incorporat...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Farmers in Zimbabwe continue to be unhappy with the government's set purchase price for local corn that is said to be about $30/MT lower than the cost of p...
Corn’s Changing Dynamics
The plain fact is that we all missed the pent-up corn demand and end user stock building, inspired by the low harvest time prices that seemed very attracti...
Oilseed Highlights
Two organizations in India have concluded that the country should focus on increasing the use of soybeans to alleviate protein malnutrition, rather than ex...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The Kansas crop tour got underway this morning, and the first report from the tour popped KC wheat futures to double-digit gains. General Comments Markets...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The general perception in the market is that the wheat is overpriced due to the high political risk premium now included since the start of the Ukrainian/R...
China In-Country Analysis
While the long-term fundamentals suggest that the ongoing westernization of China's diet should lead to increased imports of soybeans, corn and pork, the c...
Stats Canada Acreage Data
There is some concern that western Canadian farmers' planting plans are still in flux because the spring season has been so slow to arrive.Stats Canada rel...
Market Commentary
After a sharply higher early overnight trade, grain and soy futures gradually calmed down to finish the first trading session of the week in relatively pla...
Food Aid Is Secondary Priority of Food Aid Programs
According to some policymakers, the requirement that aid be sent on U.S.-flagged vessels might be the most important issue.The White House has long ma...
Ignoring the Valuable; Biotech Labeling Retort
Given that 70 percent of processed food in the U.S. may contain at least one ingredient from food biotechnology, there are at least three constitutional la...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Cellulosic Ethanol May Not Reduce Emissions
There was another blow to the cellulosic mandate this week as well as a new study challenging the notion that advanced biofuels reduce greenhouse gas emiss...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed in very light volume throughout most of the night session, but the tone gradually changed for several reasons. General Comments Markets...
Trade Trumped; Greek Spin; Cow Poop; Etc.
Given that free trade is about unleashing economic comparative advantage, there is much to worry about in Greek agriculture. Security Trumps Business, Agai...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With the IMD predicting a 56 percent probability of a deficient or below-normal monsoon for India, the impact on the farm sector and the country's overall...
Notes from Asia
The real story from Asia continues to be the expansion of the middle class and how that will continue to drive demand for everything from agricultural comm...
Too High or Too Low
When we or anyone says that a particular market price is too high or too low, it may sound like we are saying that the market is wrong even though the mark...
Possible Brazilian Mad Cow Case
This potential case could be similar to a 2012 incident in Parana where an animal developed the prion, or abnormal, pathogenic agents that induce folding o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Today it was confirmed that three employees of Marubeni's Columbia Grain subsidiary were arrested in China. Although it is believed to be soy-related, the...
Trade Truth; Middle East, Commodities
Turning public opinion into a supportive force that can overcome special interests will require political leadership in Washington, Brussels, Tokyo and man...
Market Commentary
After some overnight weakness, prices at all three wheat futures markets rallied to post double-digit gains. The apparent worsening situation in Ukraine an...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina is not as affected as Brazil by the Chinese soybean situation, but its beans have been found to have quality problems that could be a reason for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Trade Convulsions; Reorg
The EU wants the U.S. Congress to pass Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) as soon as possible, but the European resistance to fixing current trade barriers is...
Market Commentary
Signs indicate that demand for old crop corn remains brisk, and corn exports are holding to a level that appears to justify USDA's latest estimate of 1.75...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia exported 194,800 MT of sunflower oil in March 2014 (a 5 percent gain compared to February 2014 and 48 percent more than March 2013), the highest&nbs...
Citing a Few Potential Market Factors
The potential for unforeseen internal and external influences to move prices in either direction, short-term and/or long-term, remains at least as large as...
Foreign Assistance: Unneeded Advice
Indeed, it is hundreds of U.S. domestic programs that fail the government's Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART), but continue to be funded.Experts gather...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA Creates Investment Fund
The industries eligible for this new federally-facilitated investment fund include bio-manufacturing, advanced energy production, local and regional food s...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's government has advised that current stocks and orders of wheat will last until 19 June 2014, while the country's wheat crop has a very wide range o...
Market Commentary
The soybean market was rife with rumors of Chinese defaults and a Chinese government crackdown on letters of credit, supposedly issued to pay for commodity...
Oilseed Highlights
China's Ministry of Commerce today raised its forecast for the country's April soybean imports. However, the recent defaults on soybean imports and rumors...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
The Chinese government's stricter inspections of imported DDGS is currently affecting the domestic rapeseed meal price and also a factor in its growing dem...
U.S. Soybean Outlook
We note that every year at this time we have looked at projections for rapidly building soybean ending supplies in the U.S. that have yet to materialize, e...
Ethanol Roundup
Interestingly, as the import window into the U.S. appears to be closing, the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) is reporting that domestic et...
Market Commentary
There were reports of a frost/freeze across Argentina that might have done some damage to late-planted corn and soybeans, but this news didn't cause a ripp...
U.S.–Japan in the Spotlight
While a complete TPP agreement is not expected, the weights of geopolitics, national security and economics have converged to pressure President Obama and...
The Soybean Puzzle
Does the fundamental outlook for soybeans as seen right now in April 2014 deserve an old crop/new crop inverse so much wider than during April 2013?For som...
Currency; TPP Deal; Waste; Bad Seed
The signals regarding TPP just days before President Obama heads to Japan are mixed and confusing. Currency Conundrum Some powerful congressional Democrats...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Because China is such a dominant soybean importer, the crushers there think they have the upper hand in forcing sellers to renegotiate prices to a lower le...
Market Commentary
Today's early trade saw wheat prices firm, while corn and the complex traded mostly with red numbers. Volume was fairly active for a pre-long weekend sessi...
Easter Inflation
Not since the corn price run-up in 2008 have eggs been as expensive, and their prices are at a six-year high. Easter Inflation In keeping with seasonal dem...
Market Commentary
With the Ukrainian/Russian crisis always lurking and the U.S. HRW crop not in good shape, wheat futures prices are moving up and down nervously. General Co...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybean selling by Argentine farmers is projected to substantially increase going into June, potentially to a record level, as a result of the increased ha...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As of 11 April 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, Ukraine has exported 28.338 MMT of grain. According to Ukrainian Grain Association President Vlad...
Italian Reform; Curbing Speculators
Italy's proposed agricultural policy modifications include some 21st century concepts, while others appear to be more of the same, making it only partial r...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The strength of wheat and soybeans and fear that the Ukrainian situation is escalating probably kept the corn market from closing lower. General Comments T...
The Potential Impact of U.S. Soybean Imports
The U.S. 2013/14 soybean year will be unique in a number of ways. One of its most unusual elements will be record-large imports with a majority of the fina...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Jordan will need to continue importing close to 100 percent of its needed wheat supply, according to USDA FAS in Amman. With the influx of Syrian refugees,...
Oilseed Highlights
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) today released a surprisingly large soybean crush report for March that was the main reason soybean futu...
GAO Reports on RFS Impact on Refineries
The study was requested by Senators David Vitter (R-Louisiana) and James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) with the specific topic of how regulatory costs impact the com...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There have been several announcements from the Canadian grain trade recently about big new investments in grain handling infrastructure. There have been s...
Chemophobes; Off-Expertise
Separating otherwise safe, concurrent uses of chemicals is as wrong a strategy as the Maginot Line. Organic matter is chemical matter at its base. Chemopho...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
With 27 MMT of exports, the EU wheat carryout stocks will be significantly tighter than last year. However, Western Europe's crop seems to be developing fa...
Market Commentary
Corn tried to tag along with wheat, but never got better than 8-9 higher and actually faded slightly at the close. General Comments Three weekend events pu...
UN Publishes Sustainability Guide
Its premise is that traceability is one of the greatest tools for impacting sustainability. If traceability is going to develop, it has to either be mandat...
China In-Country Analysis
Due to the Chinese government's corn procurement in major production provinces, it seems probable that China's domestic corn prices have hit bottom and wil...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
House Passes Budget Resolution
The budget cuts domestic programs by $791 billion in the years 2016-2024, while it increases defense spending by $483 billion. The House passed its versio...
Market Commentary
It has been a very volatile week with Wednesday's USDA WASDE sandwiched in the middle and providing a bullish burst to corn and soybeans. General Comments...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has suggested that it is too early to predict the monsoon pattern and El Niño's effect, but it has also issued w...
The Corn Outlook is Changing
It will now take more than a record yield per acre to again start talking about 2014-15 corn ending supplies exceeding 1.5-1.6 billion bushels.We've gone f...
Trade Negotiations Struggles; Correction
An American tourist can see the sights in a half-dozen European cities within a week or less, yet USDA will need 6-7 months to look at the meat inspection...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports indicate Chinese soybean importers have defaulted on 10 or more cargoes of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, fewer than in 2004 when buyers forfeited up...
Market Commentary
The market's tepid price action following yesterday's bullish (for soybeans and corn) WASDE was considered disappointing to market bulls, and long liquidat...
Dodd-Frank and CFTC Reauthorization
The House Ag Committee, which holds congressional oversight authority over the CFTC along with the Senate Ag Committee, decided to use the CFTC reauthoriza...
Meat and Livestock Overview
Retail beef prices have tested the consumer limit with 13 percent growth over the past year, while pork prices have been tempered by increased slaughter we...
STA; Corpse Logic; Condiments
TPA is dead, long live STA. When a concept is in trouble, public relations experts start rebranding. Evolving Acronyms TPA is dead, long live STA. When a c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The main concern about Argentine soybeans this season relates to protein content. Current protein levels are below normal this harvest and that fact is mak...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The president of the Russian Grain Union said Russia's current financial problems may negatively impact the planting of grains. Ukraine has planted early s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The changes USDA and WOAB analysts made to their 2013/14 U.S. and world supply/demand estimates tracked closely with private expectations in terms of direc...
Cake; Meat; Gorilla
When it comes to stoking global economic activity, the 800-pound gorilla rattling some markets is the potential slowdown in China's growth. Late as Usual R...
The April WASDE and Thereafter
Tomorrow's report could have considerable importance in market terms since non-commercials are so heavily invested on the long side of corn and soybeans.US...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
News UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTSFrance Export Cereals (FEC) has said that the country needs to exert more effort in developing Egypt's privat...
Oilseed Highlights
It now appears the EU's 2014 rapeseed production will be up sharply from the last two years and approach the record 2009 crop. South American Soybeans Begi...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's Red Sea Ports Authority (RSPA) has announced that it will be developing a new wheat import facility in Adabiya Port that is expected to handle abou...
Advanced Biofuels Hearing In Senate
The need for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and other federal policies to support the industry and attract investment was a key theme of today's hearing...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Selective Science
Britain's Soil Society, the organization pushing organic agriculture in the UK, is apoplectic over a study in the British Journal of Cancer. Selective Scie...
Market Commentary
Today's higher grain and soy prices reflected the market's expectation that tomorrow's WASDE will be bullish. General Comments Although trading of a number...
A Look at Northern Plains Profit Potential
There are only three crops that show a positive net return, and barley is really not an alternative today.The table below is from the Carrington, North Dak...
Ag Review: Crimea and it's Implications
Crimea River History suggests that geopolitical troubles have less impact on food production than fundamentals like the weather. Crimea: Present Situation,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Market Commentary
Soybeans again had a 20-cent trading range with prices lower most of the session and the old crop/new crop spreads losing some ground. There was talk of th...
Impacts of Geopolitics and Technology
Improving Japanese farm labor misses the larger shift that needs to occur if the nation's agriculture is to survive liberalization under TPP.U.S. trade neg...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The corn plantings in Romania and Bulgaria have started under favorable weather conditions, and we estimate that the corn acreage will marginally decrease...
China In-Country Analysis
13 Chinese government agencies, led by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), recently issued guidelines aimed at establishing a unified agricultural market me...
Railroads, 2014 Volumes and Court Case
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), rail cars spent twice the time between loading and unloading in the Midwest than last year d...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Biodiesel Tax Credit
While the biodiesel tax credit has been extended retroactively in the past, it has had a unique impact.The Senate Finance Committee considered and passed i...
Clear as Mud; Biotech
EPA's recently proposed "interpretive guidance" on Clean Water Act regulations made for some fun in the agriculture community this week. Clear as Mud Norma...
Market Commentary
Wheat turned decidedly weaker early this morning and dragged corn lower as well, while soybeans again traded both sides of unchanged much of the session. G...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Prices of skimmed milk powder (SMP) have soared in India. There is a shortage as the government of India (GOI) did not regulate SMP exports and the deficit...
Minor Crop Acres
The issue with some of these very minor crops is that it doesn't take much of an increase or decrease in acreage to have a major impact on prices.We get so...
Market Commentary
Total U.S. corn export commitments have now reached USDA's latest forecast for all of 2013/14, actually 2 million bushels above it with five months of the...
Monkey See; Risks Ahead; TPP Rollercoaster
Former Lehman Brothers chief economist John Llewellyn notes that developing countries with sufficiently bad scores in terms of budget deficits, trade defic...