It is still too early to estimate India's sugar production because many mills have yet to begin crushing operations in Uttar Pradesh as there is a stalemat...
Articles
Enviro Snippets; Marketing; Sunday
Agriculture contributes 10 percent of Europe's carbon emissions, and a Commission study indicates that the farming sector could meet a 28 percent reduction...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Soybean Outlook Stays Bearish into 2015/16
The soybean outlook continues to have a negative picture unless there is a significant production problem in South America this season or a big soybean yie...
TPP Signs; Never Enough
Over 170 people signed up for a presentation yesterday in Washington on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. As presenter Gary Horlick observe...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were mixed overnight amid lighter volume than has been seen the past several overnight sessions. However, the day session was anythin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of Brazil indicate a deal still has not been reached between exporting companies and Monsanto regarding the collection of royalties on its inse...
Squeeze on Hamburger
The current small herd means pressures on producers for herd expansion, which means less culling and a lower cow slaughter. This has the potential to...
Index Funds Are Still Here
The last two or three years have been tough on commodity index funds. Most have lost money. However, rightly or wrongly, index funds are promoted as long-t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The forecast for Russia's 2014 grain production has been lowered as a result of unfavorable weather conditions in areas of the country that have impacted t...
Market Commentary
Most grain and soy contracts held onto gains until the latter stages of the day session when buying interest slackened and hedge selling began to take over...
TPP Timing; Hurdles
The U.S. and Japan have reportedly resumed negotiations on agriculture at this week's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) meeting in Canberra. However, Tokyo w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
During the last campaign, Brazil exported 4.4 MMT of soybeans in February 2014 (3.8 MMT to China) versus 960,000 MT in February 2013. The upcoming campaign...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Outlooks; Fooled
U.S. EPA will likely announce its final Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) blend requirement after next month's election. Had the Obama administration wished to...
Markets In Search of Guidance
Global economic uncertainties are likely to continue, and they will influence commodity markets including grain and soy periodically. However, many of the...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Grain traders in Iran have been quietly buying corn supplies in Black Sea markets with trade estimates that about 120,000 MT have been purchased. Prices ar...
Market Commentary
It was another "Turnaround Tuesday" for grain and soy futures markets. Prices gained modestly overnight in relatively light volume. The gains were limited...
Will WTO Ruling “COOL” Ethanol Exports?
Yesterday's WTO ruling regarding the updated implementing rule for the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) law could have implications for U.S. den...
Oilseed Highlights
The 2014 crop year was an exceptional one for rapeseed in the EU-28. Total production this year is estimated at 23.93 MMT by Oil World and 23.5 MMT by USDA...
China In-Country Analysis
Indications are that soybean shipments to China in October have been steadily declining. Part of the reason is a short-term drop in demand due to the seaso...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Wheat exports from Germany, Poland and the Baltic states are higher than a year ago. However, they are significantly slower from France (the biggest EU pro...
Talking About 2015 Already?
We are seeing a number of analysts telling producers they ought to be selling not just 2015 production, but also some 2016 production. This does seem very...
Market Commentary
It seemed like we were back to trading big yields and excellent corn and soybean harvest weather today, not fund short covering or rebalancing. U.S. financ...
COOL Rule Issued by WTO: U.S. Must Comply
Today's decree essentially found that the implementing rule does provide less favorable treatment for Canadian and Mexican livestock, but stopped short of...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India's poultry industry is against any trade of U.S. poultry meat, the general view is that such imports will be of low volume and not harmful to th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The weekly export sales report released today wasn't enough to hold the market together as selling pressure started to mount in the soy complex, and there...
Those Pesky Funds Keep Buying Soybeans
This week saw aggressive fund buying in the absence of any significant hedge selling, and prices went up instead of down. The strength during harvest likel...
Drones in Agriculture
Although farmers are currently unable to fly over crop fields or pastureland to capture pictures or video of anything that would be sold commercially, ther...
Advocacy
Ethanol proponents' rebuttal to the California Air Resource Board's (CARB's) proposed indirect land use calculation (ILUC) offers both a sharp tongue about...
Market Commentary
Outside markets displayed a relatively calmer tone today. Grain and soy futures traded rather quietly, and prices were mixed during the overnight session w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
NOPA's monthly soybean crush report, which was released yesterday, indicated soyoil stocks at the end of September totaled 936.88 million pounds (424,965 M...
Red Line for India; U.S.-China FTA
A few days ago, Indian officials dropped the hint that they were in negotiations in Geneva for a permanent "due restraint" agreement, allowing them to oper...
Two Beef Checkoffs?
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has declared that he will initiate a new beef checkoff that will operate side-by-side with the current version. Checkoff revenue...
Farm Bill Fun and Games
Whenever it becomes time for Congress to create a new farm bill (technically, to amend the 1938 and 1949 legislation), we are amazed by the number of diver...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
In Paraguay almost 70 percent of the wheat crop is already harvested with very good quality. This is a little surprising because there were some excessive...
Sugar; Dead; Abe’s Call; Foreigners
Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo is threatening to challenge the U.S. sugar program in the WTO, but the American sugar industry is likely...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Market experts indicate that 26 percent of the total 2014 Ukrainian wheat harvest is of milling quality. In addition, approximately 36 percent of the milli...
Market Commentary
The November soybean price swung between 14 cents higher and 14 cents lower before closing down 12.25 cents at $9.525. Non-commercials have been shrinking...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Corn’s Updated Outlook
It is widely assumed that the November WASDE estimates for corn yield and production will likely be larger than October's. This assumption will grow strong...
Group Urges President Obama to Address Biotech And Trade with China
In its letter to President Obama, the U.S. Biotech Crop Alliance cited serious challenges to trade because of an unpredictable framework for approvals of n...
Sino-Russia; U.S. Dollar; Chicken
China may in some ways favor Russia, but it has been ambivalent about the situation in Crimea. More importantly, it will buy Russian energy and opportunist...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt is considering a free trade zone with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, also known as the Eurasian Economic Union. This would allow for increased expor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures prices closed 4-6 cents higher due almost entirely to the influence of the other markets. Last week's mediocre inspections show that wheat ex...
Oilseed Highlights
Now that we have entered MY 2014/15, it is worthwhile to once again realize just how dominant China is as the main driver of global demand for soybeans and...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) recently released the revised Measures for Overseas Investment Management, intended to encourage more Chinese compani...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU wheat (French, German and Baltic, etc.) remains more competitive for most destinations versus Russian and Ukrainian origins. Russia's remaining surp...
Malting Barley Prices on the Rise
Prices appear set to make a move higher, following a smaller-than-expected crop production coupled with some significant quality problems.Malting barley pr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farm Bill Rewrite; TPA Trips TPP
The brand new, only partially-deployed 2014 Farm Bill may have to be rewritten as the outlook for commodity prices is substantially lower than the one used...
WASDE: Pork to Surpass Beef Production
This most recent estimate is founded on expanding pig production, higher farrowing intentions for the last quarter of 2014 into 2015 and a more rapid forec...
Market Commentary
Corn started to move reluctantly higher with the rally in soybeans, but advanced up sharply at mid-morning. There was little news around to excite the whea...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn prices in India have been moving lower over the past few weeks with no sign that the downslide is likely to stop. An end to this bearish trend will re...
Market Commentary
It was a topsy-turvy day in the markets both before and after the release of USDA's October reports. Volume in corn and soybeans was very large. Wheat volu...
Rio Grande; GSP
Mexico is reportedly demanding completion of a suspension agreement with the U.S. on antidumping and countervailing duty cases involving sugar by the end o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
New Chairman for House Agriculture Committee
Assuming the Republicans maintain their majority in the House, there will be a number of committee gavels to pass. This includes the House Agriculture Comm...
USDA Reports Not as Bearish as Expected
The markets have been anxiously waiting for today's USDA yield and production estimates for corn and soybeans since the September report was released. Near...
Oilseed Highlights
The Argentine government claims that farmers and exporters are holding as much as 21-22 MMT of stocks as a hedge against inflation, which it considers fina...
Feed Additives Future
With Europe's ban on antibiotic usage for growth promotion in livestock and new voluntary standards in the U.S., the antibiotic share of the feed additive...
The Looming Struggle for Exports
A sizeable portion of increased global supplies will be in the hands of exporting countries. The U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina, the EU, Russia, Australia...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Don’t Plant; Yuan Shock
Bloomberg reports that China plans to globalize its currency by allowing its citizens to invest abroad and permitting Chinese companies to sell yuan-denomi...
Market Commentary
Corn futures swung back and forth before winding up with modest gains of less than 2 cents. Wheat prices at all three markets clocked double-digit losses t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The stealthy wheat market has staged a technical "adjustment." Chicago wheat futures have mirrored the corn market by closing higher for the last six tradi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A question in the Brazilian soybean market has become, "Which will have more pressure to drop – the port premiums or the paper in Paranagua?" Most likely,...
Payoffs; Currency Irresolved
Coming on the heels of an announcement that American taxpayers are subsidizing rich Brazilian cotton growers with over $800 million, it has been revealed t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine is reported to have produced a record volume of vegetable oil in MY 2013/14. Its share of the global market has been rising for seven years and rea...
Never Sell a Dull Market
Why have grain and soy markets broken out of their dull mode and rallied so sharply with the October WASDE now only three days away?Grain and soy futures o...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Officials in Egypt are stating that wheat imports in 2015 will drop by 50 percent to 4-4.5 MMT. However, most experts there don't expect any serious declin...
Oilseed Highlights
The Argentine government is reportedly considering the establishment of a national grain company to compete with multinational exporting firms. Argen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Lawsuits
There have been developments in a few major legal issues relating to agriculture that have unfolded in the past several days, and the final resolutions of...
Market Commentary
Today it was wheat's turn to lead the rally, and it did so in style. All three wheat markets spent most of the day session preening with double-digit gains...
Ag Review: The Policy Implications of 2014
Policy for the Rest of 2014 The upcoming U.S. election is occurring amidst geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic malaise, but there is a pan-Pacific poli...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Romania and Bulgaria is very quiet. Farmers are still holding a large volume of wheat, but they prefer to wait for higher prices later in the...
Deflections; Hurdles
The U.S. reportedly settled a trade remedies case with Indonesia, although the solution is off point from the original challenge. Trade Policy Deflections...
China In-Country Analysis
Although the Chinese government has launched a new media campaign to educate and promote the safety of GM agricultural commodities, a quick review of China...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets opened much firmer than expected Sunday evening and then continued to strengthen during the night and into today's session. Soybeans were clearly t...
The Mystery Rally
There was no unexpected export business around or any adverse weather forecast that could have been the cause. This would seem to be a good old-fashioned s...
Brazilian Election: Who is Aecio Neves?
Senator Aecio Neves trailed far behind Marina Silva and President Dilma Rousseff early in the campaign, but placed second in Brazil's presidential election...
Divide; Differ; Distort
To say that the U.S. and EU economies are structured differently is an understatement. While public sector employment in the U.S. is smaller and has been d...
North Dakota Farm Meeting
There were representatives from the malting barley and sunflower industry at the meeting. This supports the idea that the "minor" crops are engaged in watc...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's 2013/14 basmati rice crop saw different varieties purchased by millers at prices ranging between $485-625/MT. For several reasons, however, the pri...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet in light overnight trading activity. It was a low volume back-and-forth trading session with little in terms of fresh market inputs. Cor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Politics and Ethanol in Brazil and the U.S.
On Sunday, there will be a presidential election in Brazil where the Rousseff government has developed and implemented a tax credit for ethanol imports. In...
Tracking Market History
The desire of interested parties to "discover" the value of certain grains in the future is one of the reasons for the evolvement of the first futures mark...
Bearish Global Dairy Market Won’t Slow U.S. Production
Some bullish factors in the U.S. include cheese and butter stocks in cold storage as of July that are at levels below the five-year average, which pushed u...
EU Prejudice; Gracias; Gridlock
Watching the new EU Commissioner-designates before the EU Parliament provides a sense that the new bunch is even more prejudiced against a Transatlantic Tr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The recent sharp declines in global soybean prices may be good news for the world's soybean processors, food manufacturers and animal feeders after years o...
Market Commentary
After trading on both sides, soybeans, wheat and corn all closed higher in quiet trade. Wheat and soybeans were helped by good export sales volume last wee...
Baleout; Undue Barrier
The U.S. has agreed to pay a relatively small number of Brazilian cotton farmers $300 million to settle a trade dispute over the size of subsidies given to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The only way for Argentina to be competitive in the current global corn market is to sell corn via combos (corn with meal). Presently, the country can offe...
Market Commentary
If one wanted market action today, he should have taken on the wheat market. Chicago wheat closed with minor gains, but it traded in a 15-16 cent range on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that 10.73 MMT of grain were exported as of 24 September 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 (26.6 perce...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA’s 1 September Stocks Report
If there is a surprise in the stocks reported today, it is the extremely tight ending 2013/14 soybean stocks of 92 million bushels, the lowest ending soybe...
Market Commentary
Besides the ongoing anticipation of huge crop production and building stocks, markets ran into headwinds from outside factors as well today. General Commen...
Trade Policy Realities
EU Trade Commissioner-designate Cecilia Malmström told an EU Parliament panel yesterday that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)...
Oilseed Highlights
The Chinese government's refusal to approve the two new biotech soybean events was known to U.S. soybean growers and officials in the biotech industry at l...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Tunisia's government reported that the 2014 grain crop is up by about 80 percent at 2.34 MMT. It was also noted that there will be a very significant drop...
End of the Fiscal Year Snapshot
The short-term snapshot paints a rosy scenario for the federal budget with a lowered deficit, growing economy and strong revenues. However, if the current...
Money Wasted; Pandering; Confusion; Smearing
The Observer reports Chinese President Xi Jinping declaring that his country must boldly pursue agricultural biotechnology and not allow foreign companies...
Putting the Squeeze on Switchgrass?
Most cellulosic ethanol today is made from crop residue as corn stover and wheat stalks are easily coprocessed at current corn ethanol plant locations. Swi...
USDA Quarterly Stocks Report
These quarterly stocks numbers have been critical market factors over the past several years when corn, soybean and wheat supplies were very tight. That wi...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Russian and Ukrainian wheat has lost competitiveness to the French, German, Polish and other Baltic origins. Russia has exported about 10 MMT of wheat sinc...
China In-Country Analysis
At a recent national seed conference in China, it was indicated that a new seed law is under development that will focus on amendment of the PRV, seed labe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Today's higher price action in the nearby November soybean contracts is likely continue in the short term, irrespective of the contents of tomorrow's USDA...
Farm Bill Sign Up to Begin Next Week
Farmers will have until midwinter to complete the update of base acres and make their one-time irrevocable decision on whether to enroll in the Price Loss...
Looking for “Minor” New Crop Bids
The minor crops will have the advantage in the 2015 growing season as farmers are again looking for alternatives to corn, soybeans and wheat. However, the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
RFS; Biotech Wheat; Food Disease
While foodies pursue the newest modern food to pillory and the latest ancient orphan crop to ordain with faddism, the more serious participants in food res...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) released the food grain production data last week, and estimates indicate the 2014/15 kharif production at 120.27 MMT, a 6.94...
Market Commentary
Markets started the night session little changed, but the soy complex eventually worked lower and again set new contract lows in the process. Good weather...
Cycles
Since commodity prices have moved up and down in a cyclical fashion as long as prices have been recorded, there has developed a cottage industry of economi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Canada and Korea Sign FTA
Trade talks have been on-again/off-again since 2008. In fact, Canadian beef regained access to Korea in 2012 after a ban due to bovine spongiform encephalo...
Market Commentary
Any semblance of yesterday's mini-rally disappeared during the day session that once again saw the nearby contracts for corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat si...
Yen; Breakout; Labeling
Brazilian presidential candidate Marina Silva is an environmentalist in a highly protectionist country, and yet she appears ready to break the mold on her...
Oilseed Highlights
The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...
Oilseed Highlights
The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...
Blistering; Arbitrage; Named; Trends
In a blistering attack, 90 scientists reportedly sent a letter to President Obama urging him to make FDA decide one way or another on AquaBounty's nearly t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported that the country has exported 7.4 MMT of grain as of 19 September 2014 and from the beginning of MY...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Surprisingly, wheat was the market's leader today. More specifically, it was Chicago wheat leading the way after posting new contract lows and the lowest p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange recently toured the region south of Buenos Aires and estimates that 150,000 hectares have been entirely lost to flooding. T...
Irony or Cynicism; Reeducation; Poison
New Delhi is single-handedly blocking implementation of a Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) that is designed to reduce barriers to trade with the very cou...
Oilseed Highlights
The large rise in China's soymeal exports to nearby markets has been mostly due to the lack of availability this year of the less expensive Indian soymeal...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's GASC had a very busy week with two tenders and surprising purchases of wheat from France and the U.S. It bought 180,000 MT of French wheat at an av...
Republican Senate Means Very Different Ag Committee
There will be five current committee members retiring at the end of 2014, three Democrats and two Republicans. With a change in party control, the Republic...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Searching for Demand
One role that the market must play is to discover how low prices must drop to uncover demand. Obviously, this becomes more difficult when supplies are risi...
Market Commentary
Corn futures traded fractionally higher before turning down again. Soybean futures prices traded both sides of unchanged and were actually higher during mu...
China In-Country Analysis
The majority of China's soybean crushers are competitively keeping their plants' utilization rates up as available soybean stocks at the 20 major seaports...
A Few More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The market is assuming another record Brazilian soybean crop in 2015, based on more planted acres and another super yield. One potential impediment to this...
Market Commentary
Soybeans set new contract lows today by a wide margin, dropping to $9.34. Wheat stabilized on news that Egypt had purchased a cargo of U.S. wheat for the f...
TPP Closeout; Pot and Alcohol Votes
Japanese Economy Minister and lead Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiator Akira Amari will spend the next couple of days with his U.S. counterpart, Mic...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farm Program Budget Numbers Growing
It is difficult to predict what the final farm program payments will be as based on harvest prices, contract prices, acres harvested and the like, but the...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Farmers in Romania and Bulgaria refuse to sell wheat at the current export parity, and the only trades reported in the domestic market are purchases from l...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Do Low Prices Mean Big Crop Insurance Payments?
There is a misconception that the revenue protection insurance program guarantees a price. It does not. It does, however, guarantee minimum dollars per acr...
Market Commentary
USDA announced additional export sales of corn and soybeans today, but the market paid scant attention to those announcements. Instead, the focus continues...
Legislative Wrap Up for 2014
The stage is set for members of Congress to return to their states and districts for campaigning. Republicans who control the House will highlight the bill...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Non-GM canola seed has been introduced in India by private seed companies. In 2013/14 40,000 acres of land was put under canola seed in Northern India, a f...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt and northern plains look warm and dry and we are on the eve of record U.S. corn and soybean harvests. The only question...
Scottish Fantasies; TPA or Not
A review of statements by the "Yes" campaign and others leaves a confusing picture of Scottish agricultural policy as we await the results of today's seces...
Cattle and Beef Halfway Through 2014
Beef production for the first half of the year was just over 12 billion pounds and is projected at 24.5 billion pounds for the year, which would be the sma...
Oilseed Highlights
There is word that soymeal is in very short supply across the Midwest because crushers simply cannot acquire the soybeans they want to process. Several pro...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Market news remains tough to find. The market is marking time until the corn and soybean harvests reach the Corn Belt. So far, yields across the Delta and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's State Statistic Service reports that total stocks of grain in the Ukrainian enterprises that store and process grain amounted to 23.4 MMT on 1 Se...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The only new crop commodity in Argentina that is operating with a semblance of normalcy (but with scarce volume) is soybeans. Argentine farmers have alread...
Biotech Religion; WTO’s Role; CFTC Punishment
Following the NAS's two-day agricultural biotechnology conference, one biotech industry rep lamented that it will take two years for a report to be drafted...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Traders say China's soybean crushers currently are losing as much as $65 on every ton they process. They claim the poor margins are a result of China's slo...
FSA September Acreage Numbers Release Brings More Confusion
Regardless of how you view and asses these different acreage estimates, they will impact the final crop production estimates and they strongly suggest smal...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Of great concern to wheat buyers in the region is the quality of France's wheat supply this season. It has been estimated that in excess of 50 percent of t...
Market Commentary
Today's market rally was caused by the release of the USDA/FSA acreage numbers that (again) suggest the USDA/NASS acreage estimates are too big. The big qu...
Scottish Signals; Wave or Gridlock
Recent events are proving wrong the notion that history leads us to a fully integrated and borderless world. The march of history is uneven, and thus globa...
U.S. Government Funding Solution
Federal funding runs out exactly two weeks from today. Both sides of the Congressional aisle reportedly want a “clean” CR, meaning no extraneous provisions...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Farmers in Bulgaria and Romania will start planting winter wheat in the coming weeks, and planting conditions are optimal. The soil moisture is abundant af...
Market Commentary
Weather across the Corn Belt and northern plains looks nearly perfect for the next two weeks and maybe beyond. Perfect is warm temperatures and below-norma...
China In-Country Analysis
Recently released economic indicators imply that the economic recovery in China is struggling, which could reduce protein consumption and drive down the de...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Little Frost Damage, Better Weather Ahead
The markets were firm last Friday just in case it got colder across a wider area than expected, but that didn't happen. It is possible that as the week rol...
Ironies; Dribble; Sino-Phobia
The U.S. National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Genetically Engineered Crops held its first of many planned public input sessions to build background f...
Commodity Risk in QE Easing
The Fed's easy money policy has not sparked inflation to date, but more effectively it served as a cushion for the lack of risk taking in an uncertain econ...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is the world's second-largest rice producer and has huge surplus stocks in warehouses. After a 30-year gap, however, GOI will be importing rice this...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tidbits on Biofuels
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is worried that the administration is considering E85 as a way to increase the proposed 2014 Renewable Fuel Standard...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets were mixed to just slightly higher. Weather beyond this weekend across the country looks warmer and dry, and that is exactly what the cro...
Agricultural Lenders Are Getting Spooked
The message is that agricultural lenders are more than a little worried about the rapid and steep decline in prices as well as the resulting destruction to...
European Double Toil and Trouble
EU President-elect Jean-Claude Juncker has asked Commissioner-designate for Health and Food Safety Vytenis Andriukaitis to conduct a six-month review of th...
Business Opportunity in the Global Wheat Market
The writing is on the wall that wheat export opportunities to Asian countries are likely to rise, especially for any global producer of a consistent produc...
Pork and TPP
The U.S. National Pork Producer Council (NPPC) has issued a statement to the entire group of negotiators involved with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)...
Out-Liars in the Policy Debate
The Pesticide Action Network (PAN) of North America has been called out for trying to undermine the credibility of a National Research Council conference a...
Market Commentary
Today USDA published the first WASDE for the 2014/15 crop year for both corn and soybeans, and the report was more bearish than the average of market expec...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Stoller Enterprises, a Houston-based agronomic firm, announced yesterday that it was able to harvest 214.7 bushels of soybeans per acre (14.44 MT/hectare)...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's 2014 grain production is expected to total 58.5 MMT, 7 percent less than in 2013. This includes 21 MMT of wheat, 7.9 MMT of barley and 27.8 MMT o...
Market Commentary
After three down days in a row, the corn market finally managed a positive close even if only by a penny or so as the market awaits tomorrow's report. The...
EU Governance; Cellulosic Amateurishness
The cellulosic ethanol industry would not exist if not for the mandate by the U.S. government that its otherwise uneconomic product be used by American con...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmer are heading into the corn planting season, and expectations are that more acreage will be planted early as this past year's strategy of do...
Oilseed Highlights
A California company announced this week that it has successfully developed a hybrid jatropha variety which has high yield, rapid time maturity and a non-t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Along with Egypt's new wheat relationship with Russia, there is news that it will have a direct freight service to Black Sea Russia in order to facilitate...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean futures prices all posted new contract lows during the day session today in slow trade. Momentum following funds continued to sell...
Budget Savings from Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies
According to the GAO, reducing premium subsidies for revenue policies could potentially result in hundreds of millions of dollars in annual budgetary savin...
To Label or Not To Label?
Proponents of GM food labeling avoid attacking GMOs themselves. In an effort to evade having to contend with the overwhelming weight of the science that de...
Checkoff Trouble; Antimonopoly Guise
India has long manipulated its food and agriculture market in an effort to protect inefficient producers while concurrently feeding its hungry. However, no...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian feed wheat is by far the cheapest origin at $192/MT FOB as the Romanian/Bulgarian is at least $10/MT higher. French feed wheat is nominally aroun...
Frost Is in the Air
Temperatures across nearly all of western Canada and portions of the Northern Plains will drop to 15-25 degrees below normal by the middle of this week. Th...
Market Commentary
Wheat struggled with corn and soybeans during the first half of today's session, but the selling seemed to dry up before noon.There was actually light buyi...
Agency Fixes
Timothy Massad is showing that he is a completely different chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) than his predecessor as he has announc...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) recently announced that biotech applications can be submitted online effective 1 September as part of its efforts to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Politics to Dominate Next Three Weeks’ Legislative Agenda
With the congressional midterm elections in the offing, political calculations are obviously at the root of everything. While this should prove to be a rau...
The U.S. Position in the World of Shale Formation Reserves
The benefit of the shale and tight oil formations is that with the new technology available to recover gas and oil from these sources, large volumes can qu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Canadian Stocks and Other Issues
Last year's Canadian crops blew away previous production records by an incredibly wide margin. The 2014 crop production estimates are back to more normal l...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As more of India's population consumes meat, particularly chicken, the country's poultry industry would like to reduce production as a means to increase pr...
Market Commentary
With the exception of soyoil, the soy complex gave us a small bounce overnight and this morning. The November contract set new contract lows yesterday at $...
Letters on India
India's agricultural exports are growing fast, and it is not the result of having negotiated reciprocal trade liberalization agreements. Its average applie...
The Politics of Corn
We used to refer to wheat as the "political grain." However, it seems to have now been replaced by corn, which by any measurement is the largest and most i...
PEDv Vaccine Approved
Based on field trials, USDA has granted a conditional license for a vaccine developed by Zoetis to prevent Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv). Continue...
Market Commentary
The soy complex, corn, Chicago wheat and MGE wheat all closed lower. Once again November soybeans, December corn and Chicago December wheat all set fresh c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The Malaysian government today exempted all exports of crude palm oil from its 4.5 percent export tax for the months of September and October. Palm oil exp...
Europe; Africa, Climate and Sugar
The U.S. dollar will be driven higher by inverse policies whereby Europe and Japan are increasing liquidity while the Federal Reserve is ending quantitativ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While Argentine farmers retain a substantial volume of soybeans as a hedge against current economic conditions, lower FOB prices may actually force them to...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's agriculture ministry is planning to buy 4-4.5 MMT during the grain market interventions in the second half of September. These purchases are inten...
Market Commentary
Today was the day that grain and soy prices broke out of the relatively narrow price bands in which they had been stuck for the past month. The breakout to...
Hopes and Doubts
Germany is considered the strength of Europe, but if its supermarkets reflect the will of the people, the future seems dull. The country's top supermarkets...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the issues certain to see a great deal of attention in Argentina's presidential election next year is the country's high export taxes on soybeans, w...
Happy New Year, Soybeans!
The 2013/14 U.S. soybean crop year was a notable one for the soybean industry, and the new 2014/15 U.S. soybean year promises to be memorable as well.Lest...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Morocco's total 2014 grain production is expected to be down by about 30 percent versus a year ago with barley showing the largest decrease at 37 percent...
Budget Outlook through 2024
Revenues are expected to increase by about 8 percent this year versus last year to $3 trillion. They will rise from all major sources, including individual...
Asia-Pacific Trade Policy
India put the final nail in the coffin of the WTO's Doha Round with its upending of the Bali agreement from last year. This has left plurilateral pre...
Market Commentary
Corn prices chewed back and forth in a narrow 5-cent range before closing slightly lower, while the soy complex was an island of strength among commodities...
Things You Hear at Farm Shows
Some of the comments you read following these shows are insightful, while others make little sense. There are also a few that fit both categories.The late...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farm Bill’s New Program Signup Starts with Dairy
USDA announced that the signup for the new Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMP) will begin 2 September and run through 28 November. It will allow farmers...
Market Commentary
The only markets that could hold gains today were September soybean and soymeal futures. Corn and wheat traded lower most of today's session with the new c...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
There have been discussions about conducting an audit of the Food Corporation of India (FCI), which does not know how many stocks it is actually holding. I...
APHIS Priorities; Non Sequitor
U.S. cattlemen are upset that USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has proposed designating Argentina's Patagonia region as free of fo...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of China indicate some firms there have recently defaulted on palm oil purchases due to banks discontinuing loans. The one most notably impacte...
WTO COOL Ruling Reportedly Against U.S.
Reports indicate that the WTO has once again ruled against the U.S. on country of origin labeling (COOL) and that Canada and Mexico may impose retaliatory...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ukraine and Grain
From the start of Ukraine's 2014/15 crop year on 1 July until 27 August, the country has exported a hefty volume of grains. However, the new southeastern f...
Market Commentary
Wheat led the way, and Chicago wheat traded above its 50-day moving average for the first time in three months. Corn futures closed up mostly 3-4 cents und...
Policy Choices and Prospects
A recent survey asking which of the world's various farm policies is "the best" produced quite a strong response. Our most recent online survey showed a c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As of 20 August 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, Russia exported 5.857 MMT of grains (22.7 percent more than during the same period in the previo...
Farm Policy; China; Green Error
Several Republican candidates are challenging the 2014 Farm Bill for its failure to cut food stamps more and better address its corporate welfare. Frustrat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmers remain frustrated with their government's policies that are causing a consistent decline in the planting of grains (corn, wheat, barley)...
Market Commentary
Aside from the wheat markets' 5-7 cent gains, the balance of the market appeared to be marking time in very slow trade within relatively narrow trading ran...
Oilseed Highlights
Pakistan has traditionally sourced most of its soymeal from India and more recently from Argentina. A combination of factors has now caused Pakistani...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey has had quite a difficult crop year thus far with wheat barley and corn production appearing to be down by about 10 percent on average. It is expect...
Awash in Records
The 2014/15 year of big crops will stand out all the more since it follows several years during which weather-related crop production problems in the U.S...
More Nuanced Look at Labor from the Federal Reserve
It is almost as if the Fed is looking for excuses to continue easy money policies now that inflation is in the range it targeted and employment news would...
Market Commentary
The U.S. dollar index closed higher again, putting it at a 12-month high against many currencies to the benefit of competing exporters like Brazil, Russia...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TPP; Disruptors; Food Prejudice
U.S. politicians have American industry now facing billions of dollars' worth of trade retaliation under the WTO for having tried to stymie food imports fr...
U.S. Spring Wheat Crop Headed for Trouble
Western Europe's wheat crop and the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop both have major quality issues, and it now appears that the North American spring...
Market Commentary
Corn actually behaved pretty well today, considering soybean futures were putting in new contract lows and wheat was also weak. Weekend rains coupled with...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Communist Wine; Orwellian Organic
The Russian Parliament next week will consider legislation that would nationalize the country's wineries. A state monopoly on wine is contended to accompli...
China In-Country Analysis
The drought that continues to afflict China's corn belt is impacting the new crop. Some estimate that production will be cut by 7.5-8 MMT. As a result, the...
International Economic Roundup
Brazil is the seventh-largest economy in the world and has seen significant growth based on commodity exports to China. However, there are signs of weakeni...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Uncertainties in the Black Sea region and the strong old crop soybean market kept markets strong into the close today. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour across the...
Sugar Market Turnaround
Sugar took a big crash a year ago with the market price falling below loan forfeiture levels, but prices this year have tightened up and are potentially ge...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
It is no longer profitable to plant corn with prices less than $3.00 a bushel across the northern Corn Belt, and we could be on the cusp of a significant a...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India wants to liberalize trade with other nations, it has also come out strongly against the WTO and asserts that it is the organization itself that...
Oilseed Highlights
Canada's canola crop forecast is lower than expected as a result of reduced canola plantings and too much rainfall in parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan as...
Flurry of Policy Developments
U.S. farm groups have opposed the "top down" effort by U.S. EPA regulators attempting to dictate farming practices around the Chesapeake Bay, but they are...
Immigration; Boogeyman; Mustard
Immigration reform proponents have reduced spending on the issue at the same time conservative politicians have increased their rhetoric against illegal im...
Market Commentary
Some commercial buying of corn futures was noted today that helped the corn market close mostly 1-2 cents higher in moderate volume. Wheat futures closed h...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Dodd-Frank: Four Years After
That four years have passed and barely more than half of the required new regulations have been finalized is a sign of the complexities of the legislation...
Cheaper Feed and Record Meat Prices Impact Livestock
Cattle and hog prices are feeling some pressure from lower wholesale meat prices, while the beef, pork and poultry sectors are all likely to benefit from l...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Various participants in Argentina's corn market expected that prices could temporarily heat up when the government recently announced a shutdown of corn li...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's sea ports shipped 595,800 MT of grain cargos for export between 11-17 August. The most active importers during this period were Saudi Arabia (123...
Infrastructure Problems; Old Ships
The failure to undertake infrastructure improvements is now burdening commerce in the U.S. the same way it does in Brazil. U.S. of Brazil During the Great...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybean futures prices edge lower, while wheat values firmed a few cents. In truth, there was nothing around to inspire trad...
Backtracking; Treadmill; Hoodwinked; Invest
Blaming fast food and sugar for obesity has been easy because attacking agribusiness bears little political cost. Now Britain's Institute of Economic Affai...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
California Mandates Feed Directive That FDA Proposed Be Voluntary
The California law reflects what the FDA had proposed be voluntary such as drug companies removing growth promotion claims from any antibiotics that are us...
Market Commentary
It feels as though the corn and wheat markets are in something of a lull. Prices of both have already fallen so far that sellers have become reluctant to p...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the bright spots for global soybean demand in the past two decades has been Southeast Asia, which has had solid economic growth in recent years as w...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
In light of the sanctions imposed against Russia, grain/oilseed-importing countries in the region such as Turkey, Egypt and Morocco are looking very closel...
Soybeans: Out with the Old, In with the New
There is always some tension in the transition between the old soybean crop year and the new one. The time gap between the statistical end of the old crop...
U.S. Situation Improves, but Shuttles Still Expensive
The key to shuttle freight values will be what the turn times are through the harvest and into the winter. The railroads were able to essentially triple th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Quality problems with the wheat crop in France and Germany will certainly reduce the EU's export potential. However, the resulting sharp drop in EU wheat e...
Policy Choices; Ethanol Room; Africa
Even if the FSA data has indicated a slightly lower acreage, the U.S. is still going to produce an exceptionally large corn crop. Meanwhile, U.S. EPA may w...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight with corn higher, wheat lower and soybeans mixed. There was no escalation in the Russia/Ukraine situation and that led to anot...
China In-Country Analysis
The most recent China Customs data indicates that soybean imports in July reached 7.47 MMT, substantially higher than the official estimate of 5.87 MMT,&nb...
Farmland Values: Effects of Crops versus Livestock and Dairy
Farmland values in the Midwest have been dropping, based on near perfect growing conditions and an anticipation of a bumper crop this year for corn and soy...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Wheat was trading steady to slightly lower overnight until reports hit the news that Ukraine had fired on a Russian truck convoy within its borders. That p...
Propane Outlook
After propane demand for drying crops in the upper Midwest surged and reduced inventories just before the start of winter last year, the season when it is...
Reflection; Gripe; Rotary Dial; Sweet News
The German leak of one-third of a 1,500 page Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) involved more a gripe about the investor state dis...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Due to the Indian monsoon's slow start and its current lull as well as the delayed sowing, some of the major crops' yields could be small. India also may n...
More Confusion on U.S. Acres
One of the more puzzling aspects of USDA reports always seems to be the planted acreage estimates. In part, that is because there are two separate USDA age...
Embargo Blowback; Muddled Salt
There is no doubt that the Russian food import embargo is stinging exporters, particularly in Europe, but the West needs to hold a kumbaya on the situation...
Where Are We Headed Now?
Any way one slices the numbers, the world has rapidly shifted from years of concerns about tight supplies of grains and soybeans toward questions about wha...
Market Commentary
The sharply higher basis levels for spot soybeans and the antics of the expiring August contract rippled throughout the rest of the soybean market and even...
Oilseed Highlights
Throughout the past year, USDA has been forecasting China's soybean imports in MY 2013/14 would reach 69 MMT, but that estimate may actually be too pessiim...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
WASDE
USDA raised its total red meat and poultry production forecasts in the August WASDE report that was released this week. These increases were based on heavi...
Cereal Coercion; Sustainability
Environmentalists and some members of Congress are demanding that the government not approve Dow's Enlist Duo, genetically modified corn and soybeans that...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmer selling of soybeans is under 50 percent for the present campaign. It is doubtful that any additional beans will be sold to China from Sept...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's harvest totaled 33.764 MMT of grains and pulses as of 11 August, which included 9.12 MMT of barley, 23.348 MMT of wheat and 429,000 MT of rye.&nb...
Market Commentary
USDA's estimates for U.S. and world grain and soybean production and stocks continued to reverberate throughout the markets. The shift to record crops and...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Syria does not seem to be any closer to finalizing its wheat sale to Iraq as the government reported last week that 200,000 MT were awaiting shipment, but...
Troika; 91%; Onions
Notable is the decision by Kazakhstan and Belarus, the other two-thirds of the Russian-led Eurasian Customs Union, to not join Moscow in its food import bo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Forecasts from the August WASDE
Whether or not one considers today's August WASDE to be bearish depends on one's pre-report assumptions and the extent to which bearish expectations have a...
Oilseed Highlights
Oil World is reporting this week that biodiesel production in Argentina and Brazil will increase sharply in both countries this year with Brazil's producti...
Market Commentary
USDA's conservative U.S. corn yield of 167.4 bushels/acre and production estimate of 14.032 billion bushels probably disappointed corn market bears, but th...
Argentine Biodiesel Import Issues
There are actually two issues here. The first is the alternative biomass tracking process, which will run its course, and the second is Argentina's Differe...
U.S. Crop Revenue Assurance Guarantees Will Be Sharply Lower in 2015
Next year's program prices will not be established until February, so It is very early to be discussing what might happen in 2015 from a production standpo...
Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies
The underlying fundamental issue with crop insurance is its actuarial soundness, and gaining higher levels of coverage through premium subsidies has...
Russia; Bots; Rice
Russia is over six times more important as an export market for Europe's farmers than it is for their American counterparts (€12.2 billion versus $1.9 bill...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Romanian and Bulgarian wheat harvest has finally been completed after a long delay due to the excessive rainfall in July and early August. Quality has...
China In-Country Analysis
After serious food safetly problems in recent years, China's Ministry of Agriculture and the National Health and Family Planning Commissions jointly issued...
Market Commentary
The traditional trading funds are still reportedly long just over 70,000 contracts of corn. If that length is liquidated on a really bearish USDA report to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's Ministry of External Affairs has suggested that it could allow U.S. chicken legs free entry into India if the U.S. permits imports of Indian basmat...
Tuesday’s USDA Numbers Almost Have to be Bearish
There seems to be little doubt the production estimates will go up from the record corn and soybean yields already used in the July WASDE. The only questio...
Change the Campaign
There has to be a market for biotech or else there will be no premium for non-biotech/organic. The opportunity missed by conventional agriculture continues...
Control of the Senate: Ag Committee Turnover
Of all the Senate win and loss combinations to change party control of that body, the Agriculture Committee plays a key role with five of its members retir...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Rumors that Moscow might be withdrawing slightly from its aggressive posture with Ukraine seemed to trigger a wave of selling across the wheat markets. Cor...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grain and soy futures was quiet and mixed. Grains were slightly weaker, while late buying brought soybeans modestly higher. Trade duri...
Ag Review: Timing the Commodity Cycle
Taming the Commodity Cycle Instead of reducing the biofuel mandate, policymakers need to make it a countercyclical approach to balancing supply and demand...
Russia Bans U.S. Meat and Dairy Products Imports
As retaliation for sanctions imposed on its energy, financial and weapons manufacturing sectors, Russia has banned a number of U.S.ag products, particularl...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Russia Case; TTP/TPP; Government
China is prohibiting government procurement of all Apple products and Moscow has announced food import bans that only crudely reference any kind of WTO jus...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today indicated the nation's soybean crop in 2014 totaled a record 55.5 MMT, while Brazil's Conab reduced its estim...
Hoping Against Hope
There seems to be a common thread emerging among many people with vested interests in corn and soybean prices and what direction they take. Farmers, cash g...
Dead Zones; Rating Africa; Trade Games; Water
One initiative arising out of the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit this week in Washington is a commitment by the U.S. Agency for International Development to p...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's winter wheat harvest has reached its highest record level ever. This includes the period since the country became independent as well as the time...
Market Commentary
Funds bought around 8,000 contracts of corn to fuel today's price rally, which took place despite rains in the western Corn Belt. The rally also ignored a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine corn premiums continue to decline, and the potential export surplus is close to 4.5 MMT. It may be difficult to find demand for such volume due t...
Gridlock, Shopping and the Future
With around 50 heads of state in Washington this week for the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit, the streets are ablaze with the police sirens intended to keep t...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey's reduced crop production, resulting from several weather-related issues, is negatively impacting both wheat and barley exports as well as increasin...
Oilseed Highlights
The French analytical firm Strategie Grains this week raised its forecast for the EU's rapeseed crop this year to a record 22.9 MMT, which is 400,000 MT ab...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Crops With and Without Problems
U.S. spring planted crops have enjoyed excellent conditions to date, and they do not seem to be facing any major problems – at least so far. However, the s...
Market Commentary
It was "Turnaround Tuesday" for corn and soy complex futures today, but not for wheat. Outside markets offered no support for grains, soybeans and other co...
Dietary Guidelines: Politics on a Plate
Sustainability is the latest ingredient to be mixed in to the nutrition policy making process. It is also a topic that the Dietary Guidelines Committee has...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
American Idiot; Time to Challenge; Superfoods
India's Prime Minister Narenda Modi wants Washington to recognize that India is burdened with trying to help the poor. Meanwhile, the county spends $1.1 bi...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
After three weeks of incessant rains, the yield and quality of the wheat in the western regions of Bulgaria and Romania have been affected significantly. F...
China In-Country Analysis
China exported 1.36 MMT of soymeal during the first half of 2014, a twofold surge over the first half of 2013. The average profit margin of Chinese soybean...
Canadian Crop Tour Yield Estimates Well Below 2013
Western Canada's producers will have several other issues to deal with as a result of the excessive rains. These could include another low protein spring w...
Market Commentary
Soybeans started last night with some follow-through selling from last Friday's weak day, but that selling quickly was absorbed by the short covering cause...
Stock Market Bearish Despite Fundamentals
Most of the causes for last week's stock market drop are outside of the U.S. as most domestic economic news is promising and supportive. However another po...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Salmonella in Chicken: U.S. And Foreign Policy Roles
As the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) today announced the New Poultry Inspection System (NPIS), which is intend...
Market Commentary
In today's market action, soybeans and corn prices fell again, while wheat prices firmed. Forecasts for rain next week kept the corn and soybean markets on...
Philosophy; Perfection; Self-Help; Tariffs
A letter from 140 U.S. House members is demanding that Japan fully open its market to U.S. agricultural products, or it should be kicked out of the Trans-P...
What Happened to the El Nino?
The Northern Hemisphere growing season of 2014 will have to rank as one of the calmest, most boring in a very long time, and an El Nino pattern had been ex...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Although India's Prime Minister Modi recently emphasized the need to help farmers increase production with fewer inputs as well as less water and land, two...
Oilseed Highlights
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) said its members have not yet secured agreement with Monsanto on a royalty collection proced...
Market Commentary
Corn continued to drift lower despite the weekly export number being above expectations. The November (new crop) soybean contract traded both sides of unch...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Court Upholds COOL
In a 9-2 decision this week, the U.S. Court of Appeals in the District of Columbia upheld USDA's rule for mandatory country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) for m...
Legacies from the Great War
World War I had an impact on American agriculture that in some respects is still being felt today. To ensure there was enough food to feed the army, the U...
India’s Bounty; Sector Comparison
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is certainly not going to allow Trade Faciitation (TF) to move forward without the WTO green light to subsidize India's...
Market Commentary
The pace of futures trade overnight and again today was considerably slower than in recent days. Prices for the soy complex were hammered again, while corn...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn market in Argentina is currently quiet, and basis premiums weak. One reason is Argentine corn cannot compete in Colombia and Peru due to preferent...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia exported 3.9 MMT of corn as of 30 June and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, which is double the entire MY 2012/13 result. The largest importers wer...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bitter Tax; Double Breakfast; Defensive Loser
Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut) is again pushing her proposed national tax on sugar-sweetened beverages as the silver bullet solution to obesit...
Market Commentary
Futures prices for the soy complex and grains started out higher during the overnight session, but they soon turned lower. Today's weather model runs added...
Fun and Games with Weather
Every summer in the U.S. produces some kind of a weather market. We had begun to wonder if the summer of 2014 was going to be a rare exception to that rule...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
New Regulations for Fuel Transport by Rail
Shippers of both ethanol and petroleum fuel are worried that the new, slower speed standards will cause more backlogs and the potential volume requirements...
Leverage and Imbalances
Trade is increasingly distorted despite WTO tenets to the contrary, which is made evident by contrasting policies being enacted by various countries around...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Jordan has increased the price paid to farmers for local wheat to $635/MT in the hope of increasing local production, while import quality wheat can be pur...
Oilseed Highlights
One would think that with South America harvesting a record volume of soybeans in 2014, U.S. soybean export sales might lag a bit going into MY 2014/15. Ho...
Market Commentary
Wheat could only manage a steady to slightly weaker day today as soybeans were very strong and corn closed a nickel higher. The market's attitude is still...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Tthe wheat quality in Europe has suffered from the excessive rains during the harvest and seems to have deteriorated the most in France. As a consequence,...
China In-Country Analysis
Although China has announced a record harvest this summer, a major concern among rural development researchers is sustainability, considering the combinati...
Railroad Backlog Emerging as Market and Regulatory Issue
The railroads report that they are working on solutions to the rail backup problem for the fall grain harvest season, and BNSF projects that it is on track...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Lower Prices Will Mean Smaller Margins
The six-year run of high commodity prices coupled with generally good yields and record net farm income have also allowed all of the ancillary industries t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Republicans and Democrats Versus EPA
Two sets of U.S. senators met with administration officials this week to discuss actions pending at U.S. EPA and came away with very different reactions.Tw...
Horseless; Knowledge
Europe stymies beef imports while concurrently shorting the animal feed market, which collectively makes meat higher-priced for consumers and also creates...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Credit Suisse announced this week that it will exit its commodity trading business after reporting a second quarter loss of $779 million, much of which is...
Market Commentary
Wheat turned positive, corn tried to get back to unchanged and soybeans cut their losses significantly by mid-morning. All of the markets remain oversold t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India's monsoon has somewhat rebounded, farming communities have been impacted by the delayed rains. Rural demand is diminishing with crop selection...
How Big is Big and the Consequences
As the growing season has progressed, discussions about potential yields and crop sizes have come to dominate markets. However, it may turn out to be a mem...
Market Commentary
The increased trading activity overnight carried over into the day session, especially in the soy complex. However, the enthusiasm over higher prices dimme...
Oilseed Highlights
While many in the Indian soybean industry have hopes the country's crop yields and planted area will rise in the future, the prevailing view is that it wil...
Meaning?; RFS; Correction
Antagonists on both sides of the Atlantic have complained about a lack of transparency in the TTIP negotiations. Now a recently leaked copy of the EU's dra...
Global Pork Overview: Tale of Two Markets
While those countries most impacted by the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) are seeing record-high pork prices, others are experiencing a much more b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Pests; Broken; Sequence; Data
Brussels continues to rebut U.S. complaints about its biotech approval system, but not a single approval has occurred this year despite repeated safety cle...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American producers have more problems and less financial support than their North American counterparts, and such difficulties could easily transitio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets have been greatly oversold, as we have observed before, and were due for a bounce. So when the soy complex began to exert a little upward muscle, c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that 1.007 MMT of grain were exported as of 16 July 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 as Ukraine expo...
Market Commentary
Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop condition report set the tone for today's corn market. The 76 percent good/excellent rating so late in July along with 56...
World Wheat Outlook
Wheat is still considered politically significant, especially in certain countries where it is the principal agricultural crop or a principal food. If worl...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Bore; Reality
India commercially exports rice, soymeal and wheat, invests in a space program and has now committed billions to a BRICS bank. All the while, it claims pov...
CBO Releases Long-Term Budget Outlook
The 2011 and 2014 budget deals and the 2013 sequester have made a significant difference in total federal spending, mostly in the discretionary area, but h...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
In light of recent large fines levied by the U.S. government on financial institutions for avoiding strict Sudanese trade sanctions, many banks and trading...
Oilseed Highlights
China's soymeal exports rose to 301,731 MT in June, a 128 percent increase over a year ago. The sharp rise has been driven primarily by a shortage of India...
More Scrutiny for EPA’s Waters of the U.S. Rule
To date, the one EPA action that has triggered a complaint by the National Farmers Union (NFU) is the setting of the 2014 biofuels volumes, which its lette...
Market Commentary
It is worthwhile noting that index funds are reportedly still holding about 300,000 long corn contracts. Corn condition ratings were unchanged in today's r...
Projected Returns Drop below Break-Even Levels
The implication going forward is that corn acres are in jeopardy for the 2015 crop year under the current market price structure. Soybeans have had a signi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The weather remained unstable in Romania and Bulgaria last week, impacting the harvest. Exporters in Bulgaria are only offering feed wheat at the moment as...
China In-Country Analysis
The latest USDA 30 June Acreage Report helped push down soybean futures significantly. As a result, Chinese soybean trading companies and crushers were hit...
TTIP Angst; Local Joke
Those on the U.S. agriculture side express disappointment that Brussels is still pushing geographic indicators in TTIP discussions, while bringing nothing...
Laughing; Ukraine; Hopeful and Concerning
It is Republicans who would be on the defensive in November if they are blocking a TPP agreement that has strong support from the business community. Laugh...
APHIS Withdraws GE Information Sharing Rule
The purpose of the rule was to help state and tribal governments better review and comment on the notifications and permit applications received by APHIS a...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures turned higher at the opening bell this morning on more USDA soybean sales announcements. Wheat futures turned sharply lower, which pulled c...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India has been challenged over its recently enacted Food Security Act that is viewed by developed nations as a violation of the WTO Bali agreement, s...
Bring on the Heat
Extended forecasts released yesterday continue to point toward cooler than normal temperatures for most of the Corn Belt. This means the soy complex could...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Look Out; Expensive Straw
Given that the EU has refused to adopt science-based SPS measures and Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has just promised the European Parliament that bord...
Trading Market Spreads 101
The strategy of buying a futures contract in a nearby time frame, then selling it just before that contract expires and replacing it by purchasing a more d...
Market Commentary
Corn futures closed fractionally higher in consolidating trade on both sides of yesterday's closes. The Malaysian plane disaster lit up the market, briefly...
FSIS Proposes Retailer Traceability for Ground Beef
USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has proposed new regulations to provide more information on the beef that is used for grinding, which woul...
Oilseed Highlights
Germany's biofuel industry association today said a new greenhouse gas reduction scheme passed yesterday is likely to result in reduced biofuel consumption...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Awaiting Default; Miscellany
USDA's Economic Research Service looked at mandatory and discretionary SPS measures for imported fruits and vegetables versus actual trade flows and conclu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
An interesting development is occurring in Brazil with the Paranagua paper market, which is normally used as a hedge and reference for farmers, traders and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Harvesting is difficult in the eastern regions of Ukraine where the anti-terrorist operation is in progress, and some areas in Luhanska and Donetska oblast...
Market Commentary
Wheat reluctantly followed corn higher overnight, but Chicago and KC contracts gave it all back by the end of the day session and closed mixed. MGE spring...
World Corn Outlook for 2014/15
We expect that estimated U.S. corn production will rise close to 14 billion bushels and, moreover, that favorable conditions for other important corn-growi...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iraqi grain traders advise that it has become impossible for Syria to deliver the wheat to Iraq that was arranged in June 2013 as truckers are not able to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina's biodiesel exports fell sharply in 2013 as a result of the anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU. In response, the Argentine government initiate...
Farm Bill Payments Could Be Coming
USDA's latest WASDE report puts the new Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) programs more in play with news of good crop conditio...
Organic Mush; Domain Angst
Europe's wine industry is in a dispute with the internet domain body called ICANN. The industry fears that new domain categories called .wine and .vin coul...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
After being down as much as 16 cents, new crop November soybeans fought their way back to close unchanged. They even traded in green numbers briefly. Their...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) issued a policy document aimed at reducing food loss during grain production. One of the notable reasons behind this...
Financial Readjustment
Farmers have used the bonus depreciation allowance aggressively for several consecutive years to buy new equipment and build new farm facilities to reduce...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Lesser Prairie Chickens and Zimbabwean Elephants
Kansas has announced that it will oversee the breeding of Lesser Prairie Chickens (LPCs) for release into habitat. Although the concept in relation t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Starting tomorrow, the EU will introduce an import levy on corn that is based on the last 10 day-average price of U.S. corn to Rotterdam versus the EU's ma...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean futures were showing double-digit gains most of the day, while corn trailed far behind with 3-4 cent gains. U.S. financial markets were v...
Farm Bill Implementation Hearing
Congress made a number of major changes to crop support programs, and farmers will be faced with some decision-making regarding new coverage options. It is...
USDA Numbers Bearish as Expected
USDA did not raise the corn or soybean yields in the July WASDE, and most analysts believe that will occur in August. Increased yields, of course, will mea...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's 2014/15 budget attempts to target economic growth at 7–8 percent over a three-four year period after less than 5 percent growth for the past two ye...
Market Commentary
As expected, today's release of the July WASDE added to the overall bearish tone to the market that has persisted since USDA's quarterly stocks reports and...
China; Trade; India; Water
Some trade policy analysts are convinced that politics will prevent any progress on trade agreements this year. Yet the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) neg...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
USDA will release its July WASDE numbers at 12 PM (EDT) tomorrow. That also gave us some choppy trade today, but volume was very good in corn and soybeans...
Ag Review: Examining China
China's Broad Developments China is spending money on agriculture and trading futures, but self-sufficiency remains an unlikely outcome. China Pork Revolut...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Better TF; Emotions
Trade Facilitation (TF), the WTO concept agreed to at Bali last year for reducing and making transparent the transactional costs that governments impose on...
Oilseed Highlights
Coca Cola and Pepsi have announced they will remove brominated vegetable oil (BVO) from many of their popular soft drinks, but not because the FDA has foun...
Rooster Impotence
Broiler production expansion has been somewhat lagging in the past two years for several reasons, and now the major breeding stock provider Aviagen Group h...
The “Noisy” Uptick of Food Prices
It is the costs of food and energy that affect consumers first and impact them most, especially those with lower incomes, and those prices are on the rise...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Approximately 63 MMT of grain may be harvested in Ukraine for MY 2014/15, which would be one of the largest in the country's history. Grain and port...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices continued to leak lower, although at a somewhat less frenetic pace. Some non-commercials appear to be putting on short positio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Doomed; Ditch; Big Guns
For the industry and services sectors, agriculture has always been a thorn when it comes to trade negotiations. That remains the case, but a heartening app...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Recent declines in CBOT futures prices extend out through 2015 and are making South American producers nervous about the future margins that they can expec...
Weather, Crops and Prices
Ever since USDA began providing this year's first weekly crop condition reports up to the present, the conditions reported for corn and soybeans have spark...
Marketing Impacts
The U.S. originally opposed a dispute settlement mechanism in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement on issues surrounding Sanitary and Phytosanitar...
Market Commentary
The selling pace in the corn market has slowed as the December contract gradually slips towards the $4.00 level. Friday's corn supply and demand should not...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
While Turkey's demand for both soybeans and soymeal is rising due to expansion in the poultry and livestock sector, it can only be met by increasing import...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
As a result of insufficient rainfall in key growing areas, India's soybean plantings as of 4 July are reported to be about 90 percent less than the 4.3 mil...
Debate over Economic News
A number of economic reports for June were released last Thursday, and the news is now full of debate about whether these new statistical indicators are go...
It’s a Lonely Time for Bulls
The traditional speculative trading funds are now holding a major short position in wheat (near a record) and have exited their long positions in corn and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Surreal in Nigeria and other Policy Curiosities
Nigerian Minister of Agriculture Akinwumi Adesina went to great lengths to assure the public that biotechnology was not being used in Nigerian agricu...
China In-Country Analysis
China's rejection of U.S. DDGS has resulted in those cargoes being resold to its neighbors, which are also the major export destination markets for i...
Market Commentary
Excluding the liquidating July contracts, today's highs for soybean and corn futures contracts never came close to last Thursday's closes. Despite the mark...
Climate Change Impact on Agriculture
Potential impacts of climate change that do not consider agricultural adaptation are of limited use and insight. This is a long-term trend, so anticipating...
TTIP Titanic; U.S. Myopic
U.S. aggies have shared tough talk with European officials about their expectations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and EU A...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The combined Argentine and Brazilian biodiesel production is forecast to rise by 1 MMT in 2014, driven by Brazil's increase in the mandatory biodiese...
COOL Attracts Attention Outside of Ag
The COOL Reform Coalition, representing a diverse group of businesses, has sent a letter to Congress urging USDA to abandon its implementing rule for the l...
One Long-Term View
The first thing catching our attention is that while the U.S. 2014 soybean plantings rose more than 8 million acres higher than last year and the new 2014...
Market Commentary
Today's holiday-shortened session again featured, if that is the right word, lower corn and soybean prices. The 4th of July holiday is typically the point...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The bearish result of USDA's data on Monday is causing adjustments to occur in South American pricing of corn and soybeans. Increasing the complexity of th...