The only new crop commodity in Argentina that is operating with a semblance of normalcy (but with scarce volume) is soybeans. Argentine farmers have alread...
Articles
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Of great concern to wheat buyers in the region is the quality of France's wheat supply this season. It has been estimated that in excess of 50 percent of t...
Market Commentary
Today's market rally was caused by the release of the USDA/FSA acreage numbers that (again) suggest the USDA/NASS acreage estimates are too big. The big qu...
Scottish Signals; Wave or Gridlock
Recent events are proving wrong the notion that history leads us to a fully integrated and borderless world. The march of history is uneven, and thus globa...
Oilseed Highlights
Traders say China's soybean crushers currently are losing as much as $65 on every ton they process. They claim the poor margins are a result of China's slo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. Government Funding Solution
Federal funding runs out exactly two weeks from today. Both sides of the Congressional aisle reportedly want a “clean” CR, meaning no extraneous provisions...
FSA September Acreage Numbers Release Brings More Confusion
Regardless of how you view and asses these different acreage estimates, they will impact the final crop production estimates and they strongly suggest smal...
Little Frost Damage, Better Weather Ahead
The markets were firm last Friday just in case it got colder across a wider area than expected, but that didn't happen. It is possible that as the week rol...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
Recently released economic indicators imply that the economic recovery in China is struggling, which could reduce protein consumption and drive down the de...
Commodity Risk in QE Easing
The Fed's easy money policy has not sparked inflation to date, but more effectively it served as a cushion for the lack of risk taking in an uncertain econ...
Ironies; Dribble; Sino-Phobia
The U.S. National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Genetically Engineered Crops held its first of many planned public input sessions to build background f...
Market Commentary
Weather across the Corn Belt and northern plains looks nearly perfect for the next two weeks and maybe beyond. Perfect is warm temperatures and below-norma...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Farmers in Bulgaria and Romania will start planting winter wheat in the coming weeks, and planting conditions are optimal. The soil moisture is abundant af...
Tidbits on Biofuels
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is worried that the administration is considering E85 as a way to increase the proposed 2014 Renewable Fuel Standard...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Agricultural Lenders Are Getting Spooked
The message is that agricultural lenders are more than a little worried about the rapid and steep decline in prices as well as the resulting destruction to...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is the world's second-largest rice producer and has huge surplus stocks in warehouses. After a 30-year gap, however, GOI will be importing rice this...
European Double Toil and Trouble
EU President-elect Jean-Claude Juncker has asked Commissioner-designate for Health and Food Safety Vytenis Andriukaitis to conduct a six-month review of th...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets were mixed to just slightly higher. Weather beyond this weekend across the country looks warmer and dry, and that is exactly what the cro...
Market Commentary
Today USDA published the first WASDE for the 2014/15 crop year for both corn and soybeans, and the report was more bearish than the average of market expec...
Out-Liars in the Policy Debate
The Pesticide Action Network (PAN) of North America has been called out for trying to undermine the credibility of a National Research Council conference a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Stoller Enterprises, a Houston-based agronomic firm, announced yesterday that it was able to harvest 214.7 bushels of soybeans per acre (14.44 MT/hectare)...
Business Opportunity in the Global Wheat Market
The writing is on the wall that wheat export opportunities to Asian countries are likely to rise, especially for any global producer of a consistent produc...
Pork and TPP
The U.S. National Pork Producer Council (NPPC) has issued a statement to the entire group of negotiators involved with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's 2014 grain production is expected to total 58.5 MMT, 7 percent less than in 2013. This includes 21 MMT of wheat, 7.9 MMT of barley and 27.8 MMT o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
EU Governance; Cellulosic Amateurishness
The cellulosic ethanol industry would not exist if not for the mandate by the U.S. government that its otherwise uneconomic product be used by American con...
Market Commentary
After three down days in a row, the corn market finally managed a positive close even if only by a penny or so as the market awaits tomorrow's report. The...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmer are heading into the corn planting season, and expectations are that more acreage will be planted early as this past year's strategy of do...
Checkoff Trouble; Antimonopoly Guise
India has long manipulated its food and agriculture market in an effort to protect inefficient producers while concurrently feeding its hungry. However, no...
Oilseed Highlights
A California company announced this week that it has successfully developed a hybrid jatropha variety which has high yield, rapid time maturity and a non-t...
Budget Savings from Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies
According to the GAO, reducing premium subsidies for revenue policies could potentially result in hundreds of millions of dollars in annual budgetary savin...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Along with Egypt's new wheat relationship with Russia, there is news that it will have a direct freight service to Black Sea Russia in order to facilitate...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean futures prices all posted new contract lows during the day session today in slow trade. Momentum following funds continued to sell...
To Label or Not To Label?
Proponents of GM food labeling avoid attacking GMOs themselves. In an effort to evade having to contend with the overwhelming weight of the science that de...
Politics to Dominate Next Three Weeks’ Legislative Agenda
With the congressional midterm elections in the offing, political calculations are obviously at the root of everything. While this should prove to be a rau...
Frost Is in the Air
Temperatures across nearly all of western Canada and portions of the Northern Plains will drop to 15-25 degrees below normal by the middle of this week. Th...
Agency Fixes
Timothy Massad is showing that he is a completely different chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) than his predecessor as he has announc...
Market Commentary
Wheat struggled with corn and soybeans during the first half of today's session, but the selling seemed to dry up before noon.There was actually light buyi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian feed wheat is by far the cheapest origin at $192/MT FOB as the Romanian/Bulgarian is at least $10/MT higher. French feed wheat is nominally aroun...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) recently announced that biotech applications can be submitted online effective 1 September as part of its efforts to...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As more of India's population consumes meat, particularly chicken, the country's poultry industry would like to reduce production as a means to increase pr...
Letters on India
India's agricultural exports are growing fast, and it is not the result of having negotiated reciprocal trade liberalization agreements. Its average applie...
Canadian Stocks and Other Issues
Last year's Canadian crops blew away previous production records by an incredibly wide margin. The 2014 crop production estimates are back to more normal l...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The U.S. Position in the World of Shale Formation Reserves
The benefit of the shale and tight oil formations is that with the new technology available to recover gas and oil from these sources, large volumes can qu...
Market Commentary
With the exception of soyoil, the soy complex gave us a small bounce overnight and this morning. The November contract set new contract lows yesterday at $...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The Malaysian government today exempted all exports of crude palm oil from its 4.5 percent export tax for the months of September and October. Palm oil exp...
The Politics of Corn
We used to refer to wheat as the "political grain." However, it seems to have now been replaced by corn, which by any measurement is the largest and most i...
Europe; Africa, Climate and Sugar
The U.S. dollar will be driven higher by inverse policies whereby Europe and Japan are increasing liquidity while the Federal Reserve is ending quantitativ...
Market Commentary
The soy complex, corn, Chicago wheat and MGE wheat all closed lower. Once again November soybeans, December corn and Chicago December wheat all set fresh c...
PEDv Vaccine Approved
Based on field trials, USDA has granted a conditional license for a vaccine developed by Zoetis to prevent Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv). Continue...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While Argentine farmers retain a substantial volume of soybeans as a hedge against current economic conditions, lower FOB prices may actually force them to...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's agriculture ministry is planning to buy 4-4.5 MMT during the grain market interventions in the second half of September. These purchases are inten...
Hopes and Doubts
Germany is considered the strength of Europe, but if its supermarkets reflect the will of the people, the future seems dull. The country's top supermarkets...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Today was the day that grain and soy prices broke out of the relatively narrow price bands in which they had been stuck for the past month. The breakout to...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Morocco's total 2014 grain production is expected to be down by about 30 percent versus a year ago with barley showing the largest decrease at 37 percent...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the issues certain to see a great deal of attention in Argentina's presidential election next year is the country's high export taxes on soybeans, w...
Asia-Pacific Trade Policy
India put the final nail in the coffin of the WTO's Doha Round with its upending of the Bali agreement from last year. This has left plurilateral pre...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Budget Outlook through 2024
Revenues are expected to increase by about 8 percent this year versus last year to $3 trillion. They will rise from all major sources, including individual...
Market Commentary
Corn prices chewed back and forth in a narrow 5-cent range before closing slightly lower, while the soy complex was an island of strength among commodities...
Happy New Year, Soybeans!
The 2013/14 U.S. soybean crop year was a notable one for the soybean industry, and the new 2014/15 U.S. soybean year promises to be memorable as well.Lest...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farm Bill’s New Program Signup Starts with Dairy
USDA announced that the signup for the new Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMP) will begin 2 September and run through 28 November. It will allow farmers...
Things You Hear at Farm Shows
Some of the comments you read following these shows are insightful, while others make little sense. There are also a few that fit both categories.The late...
APHIS Priorities; Non Sequitor
U.S. cattlemen are upset that USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has proposed designating Argentina's Patagonia region as free of fo...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
There have been discussions about conducting an audit of the Food Corporation of India (FCI), which does not know how many stocks it is actually holding. I...
Market Commentary
The only markets that could hold gains today were September soybean and soymeal futures. Corn and wheat traded lower most of today's session with the new c...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of China indicate some firms there have recently defaulted on palm oil purchases due to banks discontinuing loans. The one most notably impacte...
Policy Choices and Prospects
A recent survey asking which of the world's various farm policies is "the best" produced quite a strong response. Our most recent online survey showed a c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
WTO COOL Ruling Reportedly Against U.S.
Reports indicate that the WTO has once again ruled against the U.S. on country of origin labeling (COOL) and that Canada and Mexico may impose retaliatory...
Market Commentary
Wheat led the way, and Chicago wheat traded above its 50-day moving average for the first time in three months. Corn futures closed up mostly 3-4 cents und...
Ukraine and Grain
From the start of Ukraine's 2014/15 crop year on 1 July until 27 August, the country has exported a hefty volume of grains. However, the new southeastern f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As of 20 August 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, Russia exported 5.857 MMT of grains (22.7 percent more than during the same period in the previo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farm Policy; China; Green Error
Several Republican candidates are challenging the 2014 Farm Bill for its failure to cut food stamps more and better address its corporate welfare. Frustrat...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmers remain frustrated with their government's policies that are causing a consistent decline in the planting of grains (corn, wheat, barley)...
Market Commentary
Aside from the wheat markets' 5-7 cent gains, the balance of the market appeared to be marking time in very slow trade within relatively narrow trading ran...
Awash in Records
The 2014/15 year of big crops will stand out all the more since it follows several years during which weather-related crop production problems in the U.S...
More Nuanced Look at Labor from the Federal Reserve
It is almost as if the Fed is looking for excuses to continue easy money policies now that inflation is in the range it targeted and employment news would...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Pakistan has traditionally sourced most of its soymeal from India and more recently from Argentina. A combination of factors has now caused Pakistani...
Market Commentary
The U.S. dollar index closed higher again, putting it at a 12-month high against many currencies to the benefit of competing exporters like Brazil, Russia...
TPP; Disruptors; Food Prejudice
U.S. politicians have American industry now facing billions of dollars' worth of trade retaliation under the WTO for having tried to stymie food imports fr...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey has had quite a difficult crop year thus far with wheat barley and corn production appearing to be down by about 10 percent on average. It is expect...
Communist Wine; Orwellian Organic
The Russian Parliament next week will consider legislation that would nationalize the country's wineries. A state monopoly on wine is contended to accompli...
U.S. Spring Wheat Crop Headed for Trouble
Western Europe's wheat crop and the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop both have major quality issues, and it now appears that the North American spring...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
The drought that continues to afflict China's corn belt is impacting the new crop. Some estimate that production will be cut by 7.5-8 MMT. As a result, the...
Market Commentary
Corn actually behaved pretty well today, considering soybean futures were putting in new contract lows and wheat was also weak. Weekend rains coupled with...
International Economic Roundup
Brazil is the seventh-largest economy in the world and has seen significant growth based on commodity exports to China. However, there are signs of weakeni...
Flurry of Policy Developments
U.S. farm groups have opposed the "top down" effort by U.S. EPA regulators attempting to dictate farming practices around the Chesapeake Bay, but they are...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Uncertainties in the Black Sea region and the strong old crop soybean market kept markets strong into the close today. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour across the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India wants to liberalize trade with other nations, it has also come out strongly against the WTO and asserts that it is the organization itself that...
Sugar Market Turnaround
Sugar took a big crash a year ago with the market price falling below loan forfeiture levels, but prices this year have tightened up and are potentially ge...
Oilseed Highlights
Canada's canola crop forecast is lower than expected as a result of reduced canola plantings and too much rainfall in parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan as...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
It is no longer profitable to plant corn with prices less than $3.00 a bushel across the northern Corn Belt, and we could be on the cusp of a significant a...
Market Commentary
Some commercial buying of corn futures was noted today that helped the corn market close mostly 1-2 cents higher in moderate volume. Wheat futures closed h...
Cheaper Feed and Record Meat Prices Impact Livestock
Cattle and hog prices are feeling some pressure from lower wholesale meat prices, while the beef, pork and poultry sectors are all likely to benefit from l...
Dodd-Frank: Four Years After
That four years have passed and barely more than half of the required new regulations have been finalized is a sign of the complexities of the legislation...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Immigration; Boogeyman; Mustard
Immigration reform proponents have reduced spending on the issue at the same time conservative politicians have increased their rhetoric against illegal im...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Various participants in Argentina's corn market expected that prices could temporarily heat up when the government recently announced a shutdown of corn li...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's sea ports shipped 595,800 MT of grain cargos for export between 11-17 August. The most active importers during this period were Saudi Arabia (123...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybean futures prices edge lower, while wheat values firmed a few cents. In truth, there was nothing around to inspire trad...
Infrastructure Problems; Old Ships
The failure to undertake infrastructure improvements is now burdening commerce in the U.S. the same way it does in Brazil. U.S. of Brazil During the Great...
Soybeans: Out with the Old, In with the New
There is always some tension in the transition between the old soybean crop year and the new one. The time gap between the statistical end of the old crop...
California Mandates Feed Directive That FDA Proposed Be Voluntary
The California law reflects what the FDA had proposed be voluntary such as drug companies removing growth promotion claims from any antibiotics that are us...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
In light of the sanctions imposed against Russia, grain/oilseed-importing countries in the region such as Turkey, Egypt and Morocco are looking very closel...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the bright spots for global soybean demand in the past two decades has been Southeast Asia, which has had solid economic growth in recent years as w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Backtracking; Treadmill; Hoodwinked; Invest
Blaming fast food and sugar for obesity has been easy because attacking agribusiness bears little political cost. Now Britain's Institute of Economic Affai...
Market Commentary
It feels as though the corn and wheat markets are in something of a lull. Prices of both have already fallen so far that sellers have become reluctant to p...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Quality problems with the wheat crop in France and Germany will certainly reduce the EU's export potential. However, the resulting sharp drop in EU wheat e...
U.S. Situation Improves, but Shuttles Still Expensive
The key to shuttle freight values will be what the turn times are through the harvest and into the winter. The railroads were able to essentially triple th...
Policy Choices; Ethanol Room; Africa
Even if the FSA data has indicated a slightly lower acreage, the U.S. is still going to produce an exceptionally large corn crop. Meanwhile, U.S. EPA may w...
Farmland Values: Effects of Crops versus Livestock and Dairy
Farmland values in the Midwest have been dropping, based on near perfect growing conditions and an anticipation of a bumper crop this year for corn and soy...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight with corn higher, wheat lower and soybeans mixed. There was no escalation in the Russia/Ukraine situation and that led to anot...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
The most recent China Customs data indicates that soybean imports in July reached 7.47 MMT, substantially higher than the official estimate of 5.87 MMT,&nb...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Propane Outlook
After propane demand for drying crops in the upper Midwest surged and reduced inventories just before the start of winter last year, the season when it is...
Reflection; Gripe; Rotary Dial; Sweet News
The German leak of one-third of a 1,500 page Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) involved more a gripe about the investor state dis...
Market Commentary
Wheat was trading steady to slightly lower overnight until reports hit the news that Ukraine had fired on a Russian truck convoy within its borders. That p...
More Confusion on U.S. Acres
One of the more puzzling aspects of USDA reports always seems to be the planted acreage estimates. In part, that is because there are two separate USDA age...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Due to the Indian monsoon's slow start and its current lull as well as the delayed sowing, some of the major crops' yields could be small. India also may n...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Where Are We Headed Now?
Any way one slices the numbers, the world has rapidly shifted from years of concerns about tight supplies of grains and soybeans toward questions about wha...
Market Commentary
The sharply higher basis levels for spot soybeans and the antics of the expiring August contract rippled throughout the rest of the soybean market and even...
WASDE
USDA raised its total red meat and poultry production forecasts in the August WASDE report that was released this week. These increases were based on heavi...
Oilseed Highlights
Throughout the past year, USDA has been forecasting China's soybean imports in MY 2013/14 would reach 69 MMT, but that estimate may actually be too pessiim...
Embargo Blowback; Muddled Salt
There is no doubt that the Russian food import embargo is stinging exporters, particularly in Europe, but the West needs to hold a kumbaya on the situation...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmer selling of soybeans is under 50 percent for the present campaign. It is doubtful that any additional beans will be sold to China from Sept...
Cereal Coercion; Sustainability
Environmentalists and some members of Congress are demanding that the government not approve Dow's Enlist Duo, genetically modified corn and soybeans that...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's harvest totaled 33.764 MMT of grains and pulses as of 11 August, which included 9.12 MMT of barley, 23.348 MMT of wheat and 429,000 MT of rye.&nb...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
USDA's estimates for U.S. and world grain and soybean production and stocks continued to reverberate throughout the markets. The shift to record crops and...
Forecasts from the August WASDE
Whether or not one considers today's August WASDE to be bearish depends on one's pre-report assumptions and the extent to which bearish expectations have a...
Troika; 91%; Onions
Notable is the decision by Kazakhstan and Belarus, the other two-thirds of the Russian-led Eurasian Customs Union, to not join Moscow in its food import bo...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Syria does not seem to be any closer to finalizing its wheat sale to Iraq as the government reported last week that 200,000 MT were awaiting shipment, but...
Argentine Biodiesel Import Issues
There are actually two issues here. The first is the alternative biomass tracking process, which will run its course, and the second is Argentina's Differe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
USDA's conservative U.S. corn yield of 167.4 bushels/acre and production estimate of 14.032 billion bushels probably disappointed corn market bears, but th...
Oilseed Highlights
Oil World is reporting this week that biodiesel production in Argentina and Brazil will increase sharply in both countries this year with Brazil's producti...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Romanian and Bulgarian wheat harvest has finally been completed after a long delay due to the excessive rainfall in July and early August. Quality has...
Market Commentary
The traditional trading funds are still reportedly long just over 70,000 contracts of corn. If that length is liquidated on a really bearish USDA report to...
Russia; Bots; Rice
Russia is over six times more important as an export market for Europe's farmers than it is for their American counterparts (€12.2 billion versus $1.9 bill...
China In-Country Analysis
After serious food safetly problems in recent years, China's Ministry of Agriculture and the National Health and Family Planning Commissions jointly issued...
Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies
The underlying fundamental issue with crop insurance is its actuarial soundness, and gaining higher levels of coverage through premium subsidies has...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. Crop Revenue Assurance Guarantees Will Be Sharply Lower in 2015
Next year's program prices will not be established until February, so It is very early to be discussing what might happen in 2015 from a production standpo...
Tuesday’s USDA Numbers Almost Have to be Bearish
There seems to be little doubt the production estimates will go up from the record corn and soybean yields already used in the July WASDE. The only questio...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's Ministry of External Affairs has suggested that it could allow U.S. chicken legs free entry into India if the U.S. permits imports of Indian basmat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Control of the Senate: Ag Committee Turnover
Of all the Senate win and loss combinations to change party control of that body, the Agriculture Committee plays a key role with five of its members retir...
Change the Campaign
There has to be a market for biotech or else there will be no premium for non-biotech/organic. The opportunity missed by conventional agriculture continues...
Market Commentary
Rumors that Moscow might be withdrawing slightly from its aggressive posture with Ukraine seemed to trigger a wave of selling across the wheat markets. Cor...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grain and soy futures was quiet and mixed. Grains were slightly weaker, while late buying brought soybeans modestly higher. Trade duri...
Ag Review: Timing the Commodity Cycle
Taming the Commodity Cycle Instead of reducing the biofuel mandate, policymakers need to make it a countercyclical approach to balancing supply and demand...
Russia Case; TTP/TPP; Government
China is prohibiting government procurement of all Apple products and Moscow has announced food import bans that only crudely reference any kind of WTO jus...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today indicated the nation's soybean crop in 2014 totaled a record 55.5 MMT, while Brazil's Conab reduced its estim...
Hoping Against Hope
There seems to be a common thread emerging among many people with vested interests in corn and soybean prices and what direction they take. Farmers, cash g...
Russia Bans U.S. Meat and Dairy Products Imports
As retaliation for sanctions imposed on its energy, financial and weapons manufacturing sectors, Russia has banned a number of U.S.ag products, particularl...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Funds bought around 8,000 contracts of corn to fuel today's price rally, which took place despite rains in the western Corn Belt. The rally also ignored a...
Dead Zones; Rating Africa; Trade Games; Water
One initiative arising out of the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit this week in Washington is a commitment by the U.S. Agency for International Development to p...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's winter wheat harvest has reached its highest record level ever. This includes the period since the country became independent as well as the time...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine corn premiums continue to decline, and the potential export surplus is close to 4.5 MMT. It may be difficult to find demand for such volume due t...
Gridlock, Shopping and the Future
With around 50 heads of state in Washington this week for the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit, the streets are ablaze with the police sirens intended to keep t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Dietary Guidelines: Politics on a Plate
Sustainability is the latest ingredient to be mixed in to the nutrition policy making process. It is also a topic that the Dietary Guidelines Committee has...
Oilseed Highlights
The French analytical firm Strategie Grains this week raised its forecast for the EU's rapeseed crop this year to a record 22.9 MMT, which is 400,000 MT ab...
Crops With and Without Problems
U.S. spring planted crops have enjoyed excellent conditions to date, and they do not seem to be facing any major problems – at least so far. However, the s...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey's reduced crop production, resulting from several weather-related issues, is negatively impacting both wheat and barley exports as well as increasin...
Market Commentary
It was "Turnaround Tuesday" for corn and soy complex futures today, but not for wheat. Outside markets offered no support for grains, soybeans and other co...
China In-Country Analysis
China exported 1.36 MMT of soymeal during the first half of 2014, a twofold surge over the first half of 2013. The average profit margin of Chinese soybean...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
After three weeks of incessant rains, the yield and quality of the wheat in the western regions of Bulgaria and Romania have been affected significantly. F...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
American Idiot; Time to Challenge; Superfoods
India's Prime Minister Narenda Modi wants Washington to recognize that India is burdened with trying to help the poor. Meanwhile, the county spends $1.1 bi...
Stock Market Bearish Despite Fundamentals
Most of the causes for last week's stock market drop are outside of the U.S. as most domestic economic news is promising and supportive. However another po...
Canadian Crop Tour Yield Estimates Well Below 2013
Western Canada's producers will have several other issues to deal with as a result of the excessive rains. These could include another low protein spring w...
Market Commentary
Soybeans started last night with some follow-through selling from last Friday's weak day, but that selling quickly was absorbed by the short covering cause...
Market Commentary
In today's market action, soybeans and corn prices fell again, while wheat prices firmed. Forecasts for rain next week kept the corn and soybean markets on...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Although India's Prime Minister Modi recently emphasized the need to help farmers increase production with fewer inputs as well as less water and land, two...
Salmonella in Chicken: U.S. And Foreign Policy Roles
As the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) today announced the New Poultry Inspection System (NPIS), which is intend...
What Happened to the El Nino?
The Northern Hemisphere growing season of 2014 will have to rank as one of the calmest, most boring in a very long time, and an El Nino pattern had been ex...
Philosophy; Perfection; Self-Help; Tariffs
A letter from 140 U.S. House members is demanding that Japan fully open its market to U.S. agricultural products, or it should be kicked out of the Trans-P...
Oilseed Highlights
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) said its members have not yet secured agreement with Monsanto on a royalty collection proced...
Market Commentary
Corn continued to drift lower despite the weekly export number being above expectations. The November (new crop) soybean contract traded both sides of unch...
Court Upholds COOL
In a 9-2 decision this week, the U.S. Court of Appeals in the District of Columbia upheld USDA's rule for mandatory country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) for m...
Legacies from the Great War
World War I had an impact on American agriculture that in some respects is still being felt today. To ensure there was enough food to feed the army, the U...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
India’s Bounty; Sector Comparison
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is certainly not going to allow Trade Faciitation (TF) to move forward without the WTO green light to subsidize India's...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia exported 3.9 MMT of corn as of 30 June and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, which is double the entire MY 2012/13 result. The largest importers wer...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn market in Argentina is currently quiet, and basis premiums weak. One reason is Argentine corn cannot compete in Colombia and Peru due to preferent...
Bitter Tax; Double Breakfast; Defensive Loser
Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut) is again pushing her proposed national tax on sugar-sweetened beverages as the silver bullet solution to obesit...
Market Commentary
The pace of futures trade overnight and again today was considerably slower than in recent days. Prices for the soy complex were hammered again, while corn...
New Regulations for Fuel Transport by Rail
Shippers of both ethanol and petroleum fuel are worried that the new, slower speed standards will cause more backlogs and the potential volume requirements...
Market Commentary
Futures prices for the soy complex and grains started out higher during the overnight session, but they soon turned lower. Today's weather model runs added...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Jordan has increased the price paid to farmers for local wheat to $635/MT in the hope of increasing local production, while import quality wheat can be pur...
Leverage and Imbalances
Trade is increasingly distorted despite WTO tenets to the contrary, which is made evident by contrasting policies being enacted by various countries around...
Fun and Games with Weather
Every summer in the U.S. produces some kind of a weather market. We had begun to wonder if the summer of 2014 was going to be a rare exception to that rule...
Oilseed Highlights
One would think that with South America harvesting a record volume of soybeans in 2014, U.S. soybean export sales might lag a bit going into MY 2014/15. Ho...
China In-Country Analysis
Although China has announced a record harvest this summer, a major concern among rural development researchers is sustainability, considering the combinati...
Lower Prices Will Mean Smaller Margins
The six-year run of high commodity prices coupled with generally good yields and record net farm income have also allowed all of the ancillary industries t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Tthe wheat quality in Europe has suffered from the excessive rains during the harvest and seems to have deteriorated the most in France. As a consequence,...
Market Commentary
Wheat could only manage a steady to slightly weaker day today as soybeans were very strong and corn closed a nickel higher. The market's attitude is still...
Railroad Backlog Emerging as Market and Regulatory Issue
The railroads report that they are working on solutions to the rail backup problem for the fall grain harvest season, and BNSF projects that it is on track...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Credit Suisse announced this week that it will exit its commodity trading business after reporting a second quarter loss of $779 million, much of which is...
Republicans and Democrats Versus EPA
Two sets of U.S. senators met with administration officials this week to discuss actions pending at U.S. EPA and came away with very different reactions.Tw...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India's monsoon has somewhat rebounded, farming communities have been impacted by the delayed rains. Rural demand is diminishing with crop selection...
Horseless; Knowledge
Europe stymies beef imports while concurrently shorting the animal feed market, which collectively makes meat higher-priced for consumers and also creates...
Market Commentary
Wheat turned positive, corn tried to get back to unchanged and soybeans cut their losses significantly by mid-morning. All of the markets remain oversold t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Global Pork Overview: Tale of Two Markets
While those countries most impacted by the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) are seeing record-high pork prices, others are experiencing a much more b...
How Big is Big and the Consequences
As the growing season has progressed, discussions about potential yields and crop sizes have come to dominate markets. However, it may turn out to be a mem...
Oilseed Highlights
While many in the Indian soybean industry have hopes the country's crop yields and planted area will rise in the future, the prevailing view is that it wil...
Market Commentary
The increased trading activity overnight carried over into the day session, especially in the soy complex. However, the enthusiasm over higher prices dimme...
Meaning?; RFS; Correction
Antagonists on both sides of the Atlantic have complained about a lack of transparency in the TTIP negotiations. Now a recently leaked copy of the EU's dra...
Market Commentary
Markets have been greatly oversold, as we have observed before, and were due for a bounce. So when the soy complex began to exert a little upward muscle, c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that 1.007 MMT of grain were exported as of 16 July 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 as Ukraine expo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American producers have more problems and less financial support than their North American counterparts, and such difficulties could easily transitio...
Pests; Broken; Sequence; Data
Brussels continues to rebut U.S. complaints about its biotech approval system, but not a single approval has occurred this year despite repeated safety cle...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
In light of recent large fines levied by the U.S. government on financial institutions for avoiding strict Sudanese trade sanctions, many banks and trading...
CBO Releases Long-Term Budget Outlook
The 2011 and 2014 budget deals and the 2013 sequester have made a significant difference in total federal spending, mostly in the discretionary area, but h...
Market Commentary
Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop condition report set the tone for today's corn market. The 76 percent good/excellent rating so late in July along with 56...
Oilseed Highlights
China's soymeal exports rose to 301,731 MT in June, a 128 percent increase over a year ago. The sharp rise has been driven primarily by a shortage of India...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Bore; Reality
India commercially exports rice, soymeal and wheat, invests in a space program and has now committed billions to a BRICS bank. All the while, it claims pov...
World Wheat Outlook
Wheat is still considered politically significant, especially in certain countries where it is the principal agricultural crop or a principal food. If worl...
Projected Returns Drop below Break-Even Levels
The implication going forward is that corn acres are in jeopardy for the 2015 crop year under the current market price structure. Soybeans have had a signi...
Market Commentary
It is worthwhile noting that index funds are reportedly still holding about 300,000 long corn contracts. Corn condition ratings were unchanged in today's r...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The weather remained unstable in Romania and Bulgaria last week, impacting the harvest. Exporters in Bulgaria are only offering feed wheat at the moment as...
More Scrutiny for EPA’s Waters of the U.S. Rule
To date, the one EPA action that has triggered a complaint by the National Farmers Union (NFU) is the setting of the 2014 biofuels volumes, which its lette...
TTIP Angst; Local Joke
Those on the U.S. agriculture side express disappointment that Brussels is still pushing geographic indicators in TTIP discussions, while bringing nothing...
China In-Country Analysis
The latest USDA 30 June Acreage Report helped push down soybean futures significantly. As a result, Chinese soybean trading companies and crushers were hit...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bring on the Heat
Extended forecasts released yesterday continue to point toward cooler than normal temperatures for most of the Corn Belt. This means the soy complex could...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures turned higher at the opening bell this morning on more USDA soybean sales announcements. Wheat futures turned sharply lower, which pulled c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Laughing; Ukraine; Hopeful and Concerning
It is Republicans who would be on the defensive in November if they are blocking a TPP agreement that has strong support from the business community. Laugh...
APHIS Withdraws GE Information Sharing Rule
The purpose of the rule was to help state and tribal governments better review and comment on the notifications and permit applications received by APHIS a...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India has been challenged over its recently enacted Food Security Act that is viewed by developed nations as a violation of the WTO Bali agreement, s...
FSIS Proposes Retailer Traceability for Ground Beef
USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has proposed new regulations to provide more information on the beef that is used for grinding, which woul...
Oilseed Highlights
Germany's biofuel industry association today said a new greenhouse gas reduction scheme passed yesterday is likely to result in reduced biofuel consumption...
Market Commentary
Corn futures closed fractionally higher in consolidating trade on both sides of yesterday's closes. The Malaysian plane disaster lit up the market, briefly...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Look Out; Expensive Straw
Given that the EU has refused to adopt science-based SPS measures and Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has just promised the European Parliament that bord...
Trading Market Spreads 101
The strategy of buying a futures contract in a nearby time frame, then selling it just before that contract expires and replacing it by purchasing a more d...
Market Commentary
Wheat reluctantly followed corn higher overnight, but Chicago and KC contracts gave it all back by the end of the day session and closed mixed. MGE spring...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
An interesting development is occurring in Brazil with the Paranagua paper market, which is normally used as a hedge and reference for farmers, traders and...
Awaiting Default; Miscellany
USDA's Economic Research Service looked at mandatory and discretionary SPS measures for imported fruits and vegetables versus actual trade flows and conclu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Harvesting is difficult in the eastern regions of Ukraine where the anti-terrorist operation is in progress, and some areas in Luhanska and Donetska oblast...
World Corn Outlook for 2014/15
We expect that estimated U.S. corn production will rise close to 14 billion bushels and, moreover, that favorable conditions for other important corn-growi...
Organic Mush; Domain Angst
Europe's wine industry is in a dispute with the internet domain body called ICANN. The industry fears that new domain categories called .wine and .vin coul...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
After being down as much as 16 cents, new crop November soybeans fought their way back to close unchanged. They even traded in green numbers briefly. Their...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina's biodiesel exports fell sharply in 2013 as a result of the anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU. In response, the Argentine government initiate...
Farm Bill Payments Could Be Coming
USDA's latest WASDE report puts the new Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) programs more in play with news of good crop conditio...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iraqi grain traders advise that it has become impossible for Syria to deliver the wheat to Iraq that was arranged in June 2013 as truckers are not able to...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean futures were showing double-digit gains most of the day, while corn trailed far behind with 3-4 cent gains. U.S. financial markets were v...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Financial Readjustment
Farmers have used the bonus depreciation allowance aggressively for several consecutive years to buy new equipment and build new farm facilities to reduce...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) issued a policy document aimed at reducing food loss during grain production. One of the notable reasons behind this...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Starting tomorrow, the EU will introduce an import levy on corn that is based on the last 10 day-average price of U.S. corn to Rotterdam versus the EU's ma...
Lesser Prairie Chickens and Zimbabwean Elephants
Kansas has announced that it will oversee the breeding of Lesser Prairie Chickens (LPCs) for release into habitat. Although the concept in relation t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's 2014/15 budget attempts to target economic growth at 7–8 percent over a three-four year period after less than 5 percent growth for the past two ye...
Market Commentary
As expected, today's release of the July WASDE added to the overall bearish tone to the market that has persisted since USDA's quarterly stocks reports and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China; Trade; India; Water
Some trade policy analysts are convinced that politics will prevent any progress on trade agreements this year. Yet the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) neg...
Farm Bill Implementation Hearing
Congress made a number of major changes to crop support programs, and farmers will be faced with some decision-making regarding new coverage options. It is...
USDA Numbers Bearish as Expected
USDA did not raise the corn or soybean yields in the July WASDE, and most analysts believe that will occur in August. Increased yields, of course, will mea...
Oilseed Highlights
Coca Cola and Pepsi have announced they will remove brominated vegetable oil (BVO) from many of their popular soft drinks, but not because the FDA has foun...
Rooster Impotence
Broiler production expansion has been somewhat lagging in the past two years for several reasons, and now the major breeding stock provider Aviagen Group h...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The “Noisy” Uptick of Food Prices
It is the costs of food and energy that affect consumers first and impact them most, especially those with lower incomes, and those prices are on the rise...
Better TF; Emotions
Trade Facilitation (TF), the WTO concept agreed to at Bali last year for reducing and making transparent the transactional costs that governments impose on...
Market Commentary
USDA will release its July WASDE numbers at 12 PM (EDT) tomorrow. That also gave us some choppy trade today, but volume was very good in corn and soybeans...
Ag Review: Examining China
China's Broad Developments China is spending money on agriculture and trading futures, but self-sufficiency remains an unlikely outcome. China Pork Revolut...
Doomed; Ditch; Big Guns
For the industry and services sectors, agriculture has always been a thorn when it comes to trade negotiations. That remains the case, but a heartening app...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Recent declines in CBOT futures prices extend out through 2015 and are making South American producers nervous about the future margins that they can expec...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Approximately 63 MMT of grain may be harvested in Ukraine for MY 2014/15, which would be one of the largest in the country's history. Grain and port...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices continued to leak lower, although at a somewhat less frenetic pace. Some non-commercials appear to be putting on short positio...
Debate over Economic News
A number of economic reports for June were released last Thursday, and the news is now full of debate about whether these new statistical indicators are go...
Market Commentary
The selling pace in the corn market has slowed as the December contract gradually slips towards the $4.00 level. Friday's corn supply and demand should not...
Marketing Impacts
The U.S. originally opposed a dispute settlement mechanism in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement on issues surrounding Sanitary and Phytosanitar...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
While Turkey's demand for both soybeans and soymeal is rising due to expansion in the poultry and livestock sector, it can only be met by increasing import...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
As a result of insufficient rainfall in key growing areas, India's soybean plantings as of 4 July are reported to be about 90 percent less than the 4.3 mil...
Weather, Crops and Prices
Ever since USDA began providing this year's first weekly crop condition reports up to the present, the conditions reported for corn and soybeans have spark...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
It’s a Lonely Time for Bulls
The traditional speculative trading funds are now holding a major short position in wheat (near a record) and have exited their long positions in corn and...
China In-Country Analysis
China's rejection of U.S. DDGS has resulted in those cargoes being resold to its neighbors, which are also the major export destination markets for i...
Surreal in Nigeria and other Policy Curiosities
Nigerian Minister of Agriculture Akinwumi Adesina went to great lengths to assure the public that biotechnology was not being used in Nigerian agricu...
Climate Change Impact on Agriculture
Potential impacts of climate change that do not consider agricultural adaptation are of limited use and insight. This is a long-term trend, so anticipating...
Market Commentary
Excluding the liquidating July contracts, today's highs for soybean and corn futures contracts never came close to last Thursday's closes. Despite the mark...
Oilseed Highlights
The combined Argentine and Brazilian biodiesel production is forecast to rise by 1 MMT in 2014, driven by Brazil's increase in the mandatory biodiese...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Today's holiday-shortened session again featured, if that is the right word, lower corn and soybean prices. The 4th of July holiday is typically the point...
One Long-Term View
The first thing catching our attention is that while the U.S. 2014 soybean plantings rose more than 8 million acres higher than last year and the new 2014...
TTIP Titanic; U.S. Myopic
U.S. aggies have shared tough talk with European officials about their expectations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and EU A...
COOL Attracts Attention Outside of Ag
The COOL Reform Coalition, representing a diverse group of businesses, has sent a letter to Congress urging USDA to abandon its implementing rule for the l...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
On 1 July, the European Commission Standing Committee on the Food Chain and Animal Health approved cancellation of the current restrictions on imports of U...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures continued to slump lower in the aftermath of USDA's estimate of 84.8 million soybean acres, visions of a 3.8 or 3.9 billion bushel soybean...
Silly; Litigation Please
The Obama administration has consistently shown its belief in the efficacy of biotechnology, and its next step should be preparing the legal briefs for a W...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The bearish result of USDA's data on Monday is causing adjustments to occur in South American pricing of corn and soybeans. Increasing the complexity of th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Biotech; Policy Shorts
Since a recent study acknowledges that organic foods are garnering market share by stoking fears about biotech, the conventional food industry should deman...
Huge Increase in U.S. Soybean Plantings: Now What?
If the U.S. does produce a huge soybean crop this fall that causes soybean prices to fall well below $10/bushel, the greatest short-term impact likely will...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey may pull out of its customs union with the EU if the EU/U.S. Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is ratified without its inclusion...
Conservation Compliance for Crop Insurance Rule Issued
Section 2611 of the 2014 Farm Bill links a farmer's eligibility for the premium crop insurance subsidy to compliance with conservation provisions of the 19...
Market Commentary
There is no doubt that USDA's acreage and stocks estimates combined with the fancy weekly crop condition ratings have suddenly created a very bearish envir...
Some Post-Report Thoughts
There is now probably not much to be said about yesterday's USDA stock and acreage reports that is new. However, there are a few things gleaned from them t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
It was announced on 24 June that China will revise its food safety law to include tougher rules for safety and stricter supervision. However, decentralized...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Most analysts are now predicting that the 2014 Russian and Ukrainian crops will be higher than last year with Russia's estimated at 52-54 MMT and Ukraine's...
Swine Herd Down More Than Anticipated
A reduction in the swine herd due to the impact of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) had been anticipated, and analysts had expected USDA's quarte...
USDA Reports Bearish
The quarterly stocks numbers for corn and soybeans were slightly bearish. The soybean number at 405 million bushels was 27 million bushels higher than expe...
Market Commentary
USDA's soybean acreage estimate blew the market away, coming in nearly 3 million acres above the March estimate. Corn stocks were 100 million bushels above...
CBO Issues Report on the RFS
The purpose of the report was to address concerns among policy makers and analysts about the feasibility of meeting the higher standards for blending biofu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Fresh; Leverage; Rant
The White House is withholding a $277 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) aid package to El Salvador until that country ends a domestic corn and...
Market Commentary
Standard commodity analysts may soon adjust their stories to proclaim, "Production will be large but demand is even larger!" Similar market dialog occurred...
Does Rain Make Grain or Not?
Everyone associates crop stress with heat and dryness. It can also be caused by too much water, and this is starting to attract some attention as the rains...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Following pressure from the sugar lobby, largely the cooperatives, GOI has agreed to bail out the sugar industry once again and has increased the import du...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Some Off the Wall Questions
In the course of searching for something new and different to write about, we found ourselves thinking about a variety of generally unrelated off the wall...
Oilseed Highlights
Demand for animal feed is on the rise in China as a result of an end to avian flu outbreaks this spring and a recovery in swine profitability. This increas...
Market Commentary
KC July HRW was up 7 cents as rains are again delaying harvest in Kansas and posing the threat of quality deterioration. Rains have also delayed the Mid-So...
Policy; CAFOs; Forum Shopping
Beijing will reportedly experiment with making a deficiency payment to farmers in order to bridge the difference between the market price and what farmers...
Elements of Beef Expansion
Herd expansion still relies on the profitability of the cow-calf sector, which is easy to forget with record cattle prices. Retaining heifers, though, is a...
World Perspectives on the Move
Please note that World Perspectives has changed locations and our new address is: 1301 Pennsylvania Ave. NW Suite 501, Washington, DC 20004 Please...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Because of inconsistent export policies out of Argentina and recent declines in regional exportable wheat supplies, the Brazilian government will reduce th...
Spanking; Rules
U.S. trade negotiators are asserting that regulatory convergence under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will offer more safety dat...
Market Commentary
Funds certainly did not show anxiety over the size of their July positions today. Prior to the market opening, there were still about 142,000 contracts of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian grain producers will need 1.5 billion m3 of natural gas to dry the grain and oilseed crops to be harvested in 2014 and want guarantees from the g...
Oilseed Highlights
The European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) has determined that Monsanto's MON 88302 biotech rapeseed event is safe for human and animal health and poses no thr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
According to the FAO, Egypt's wheat and corn crops this year will be slightly above average size this year, but it expects that the country will have to im...
Market Commentary
Corn futures closed lower on favorable weather prospects that encourage thoughts of an above trend yield. Old crop soybeans and the old crop/new crop sprea...
30 June and Beyond
The 30 June acreage figures will be etched in stone at the top of everyone's 2014/15 supply/demand estimates for the entire crop year until or unless they...
Federal Reserve Mostly Staying the Course
There was some expectation that the Federal Reserve Board would address the federal funds rate in a more aggressive manner than it did, but the official wo...
Why North Dakota Has Joined the Corn Belt
Has it been the new plant genetics that have pushed corn and soybeans farther north and west, or has it really been the shift to a Corn Belt climate across...
China In-Country Analysis
The 17 June state soybean reserves auction size was 358,558 MT. However, weak demand was evident as sales totaled only 72,852 MT, which is a lower turnover...
Global Oil Supply Buffering ISIS Impact in Iraq
While the effect of the Iraqi ISIS situation has been limited to date and the increase in U.S. and world production has provided a buffer, there are certai...
Market Commentary
There was plenty of market chatter this morning trying to explain the last minute surge in soybean and soymeal futures last Friday. Trade this week could s...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The excessive rains that have persisted in Bulgaria and Romania for more than two months peaked last Thursday night. Farmers in the most severely affected...
Fights and Battles
The war on fat, sugar and salt rivals the longstanding war over biotechnology. The latest involved a broadside from lawyers Rick Frank and Bruce Silverglad...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's new government plans to revamp the flagship scheme of its predecssor, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGA), and h...
Market Commentary
Corn futures were slightly lower overnight and early today before gradually pushing toward slightly higher. There was never any concerted selling pressure...
Senate Appropriations: Minibus Parked
The Senate minibus appropriations bill, which covered the Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Transportation and Housing and Urban Development Departments, has...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of the heavy rainfall, some farmers meeting in Minnesota said they have lost as much as 10-15 percent of their crops to flooding. At this point, th...
Looking East; Rubbish; Another FTA
Should the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) reach fruition this year, the pressure on Brussels to recalibrate will be great as capital markets have al...
Wheat is Not Just Wheat
There is only one class of corn and one of soybeans, but there are officially six classes of wheat produced in the U.S. that all have different properties...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Global Food Security Challenge
The goal of ending world hunger has always had universal support, but for many years the challenges involved in achieving this have tended to stay on the f...
Oxymoronic; Alternative Motive
It is time for Congress to reassess the RFS and rewrite its requirements to match both the technical feasibility and market economics that currently prevai...
Market Commentary
Export sales were generally light, reflecting increased competition from other origins and the buyers' hopes for lower prices to come. However, we should p...
Prices for Proteins at All Time High
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest release for May 2014, the seasonally adjusted prices for red meat, poultry, eggs and even fish (driven...
End Game; Rice Price
Rice is one of those thinly traded (less than 10 percent of production moves into international trade), highly subsidized commodities that annoys everyone...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian milling wheat and feed wheat prices declined on the domestic market as farmers in the southern regions started harvesting winter wheat and have r...
Market Commentary
KC HRW futures were the star of the market today. Poor yields and fear that heavy rains might lower the quality of what is harvested coalesced to push KC J...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine soybean harvest is 90 percent complete, while farmer selling is only 35 percent finished, which is significantly behind the historical pace...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Morocco's Attijariwafa Bank is financing $300 million for Russian wheat purchases during the 2014/15 import period. The agreement was signed in Moscow last...
House Majority Leader and Immigration Reform
Representative Eric Cantor (R-Virginia) became the first House majority leader to be defeated in a primary, based largely on immigration. Now Representativ...
Market Commentary
Wheat prices were lower early, reaching the lowest levels in over four months. However, this brought on some bargain hunting buying interest that helped pr...
Oilseed Highlights
Global biodiesel production has grown to reach approximately 29.12 MMT this year and has become the market for about 7.3 MMT of soyoil, 9.6 MMT of palm oil...
The Soybean Puzzle – Again
Why are markets ignoring all of the numbers that on paper add up to an incredibly tight supply situation?USDA's weekly crop condition report rated 76 perce...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania may result in a larger share of feed versus milling wheat this year. In 2013/14, both countries exported about...
Bye-Bye Bali; Common Language
India and the G-33 group of developing nations are upset that affluent WTO members are asking for more data on New Delhi's agricultural subsidies. Common L...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
It Could Be a Slow Summer
There are few potential crop production problems around the world as we are heading into the last half of June. It is going to be difficult to encourage an...
China In-Country Analysis
China's announcement on 7 June that that it would suspend the issuance of import permits for U.S DDGS has resulted in rising prices for domestic DDGS as we...
New RFS Reform Proposal: U.S. Advanced Biofuel Only
The bill would require all advanced biofuels (undifferentiated advanced, biodiesel and cellulosic) to be produced in the U.S. as well as continue to meet t...
Market Commentary
Expectations of great crop ratings today coupled with few, if any, weather problems continue to pressure corn prices lower. Some analysts are now starting...
Too Many Shuttle Loaders
Operating margins for shuttle loaders have been exceptionally good in recent years because of good crops and strong demand, but are now becoming more compr...
CFTC Reauthorization
The House reauthorization bill contains a number of reforms and addresses many of the Dodd-Frank Act provisions. It should be able to move through that cha...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Wheat followed corn's gains despite the fact that Egypt bought Romanian and Russian wheat yesterday. No one expected U.S. wheat to trade. The EU reported t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
There is hope that India's new government will bolster the economy's upward turn with revisions in policy. Industrial production rose in April 2014 as infl...
Trade and Biofuel Skids
Canadian Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz has taken a more strident position regarding agricultural trade liberalization via TPP than perhaps the Japanese a...
Meat, Critics and Consumers
As the world recovers ever so gradually from the 2008-10 recession and its aftermath, the percentage of the world's population considered to be middle clas...
EPA Extends Comment Period on Water Rule
This delay is considered a major tactical victory by most livestock and agriculture groups. If approved, the new guideline would effectively remove the wor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA increased its estimates for Argentina's domestic soymeal consumption yesterday to reflect rising exports of mixed feeds. While most of these exports i...
Market Commentary
Last year at this time, the red hot cash market and record high basis bids led the soy futures market to high prices and a wide old/new crop inverse. This...
Unchlorinated; Screwy
The House will not complete the fiscal 2015 agriculture appropriations bill until next week, but already there have been some harmful amendments adopted. U...
Majority Leader Who Delayed Farm Bill Ousted in Primary
Yesterday the number two Republican in the House lost his seat in an upset primary. Ironically, Cantor has tried for two years to schedule a legislative ag...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Buyers in China are reported to be interested in buying Russian grain, and Rosselkhoznadzor (the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveilla...
Selective; True Colors; Inequality
FAS Agricultural Counselor Allan Mustard (nominated to be U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan) has issued a report exposing how New Delhi is substantially subs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
This year Argentine farmers have sold 1.57 MMT fewer soybeans than the total for the same date a year ago. The most important information for the market is...
Market Commentary
June WASDEs are seldom major market movers, and today's report was certainly was not bullish. As if by signal, there was a general across-the-board sell of...
A Week’s Worth of Differences
The trading record shows how thoroughly the price action of November soybeans has been dominated by the July contract, which is to say, by the very tight o...
Oilseed Highlights
India's soybean-producing regions are expected to be particularly vulnerable to inadequate rains from this year's monsoon, and there also is concern about...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
This morning, Brazil's Conab revised its estimate of that country's 2013/14 corn production upward to 77.9 MMT, second only to last year's 81.5 MMT. M...
Trade Policy: Restrictions; UnSchocked
Calculations by the EU indicate that safeguard measures against its exports rose by 10 percent in 2013, and some of the prime blockers included India, Chin...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt has decided to delay its planned increase in the price of fuel for industry, individuals and homes as the belief is that it would be bad for the over...
Ethanol Election; Studies in Failure
Biofuel policy has always been political, and now there is a reported election year effort to use EPA's final decision on the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards...
What Happens Next?
Soybeans remain the wild card. The big money refuses to let go of the soybean market despite several recent head fakes that looked like the start of a majo...
House Agenda: Where Ag Fits Into Election Year Politics
While it is likely Congress will work toward having a continuing resolution by the end of the year, three appropriations bills have been tabbed to move for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The primary bearish factor hanging over the corn and soybean markets is the size of the speculative length. Exiting and rolling of positions by large specu...
China In-Country Analysis
Historically, China has established a minimum purchase price only for buying directly from farmers and replenishing provincial reserves. Now the central go...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Both the Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops are developing under generally favorable conditions, and most analysts estimate that the combined 2014/15 surplu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
To retain agriculturists in the farming business, India's government is eager to provide income security and assist the farming communities in conserving w...
Market Commentary
The combination of double-digit gains in both July and December corn contracts and the engulfing candlestick pattern of the prior day's close are indicativ...
Brazil’s Demands; Green Washing; Efficiency
The activist group called Anonymous has reportedly released Brazil's demands for settlement of the WTO cotton case against the U.S., and it is sure to rile...
Looking at SNAP Backward and Forward
According to the House Budget Committee report, SNAP spending that totaled $78 billion in 2012 is scheduled to decrease slightly over the next 10 years, bu...
Canada Legislates Better Rail Service
The uproar over the plight of Canada's rail logistics has been an issue since the 2013 harvest that was 50 percent larger in volume than the 10-year averag...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Review: The Middle East and U.S. Agriculture
Middle East Squeeze The energy abundance brought about by the fracking boom is causing OPEC heartache and could eventually spark another Middle East food c...
Protein Consumption Still Down with Lower Feed Costs
2014 feed costs are projected down about $6 billion from last year, a drop of more than 11 percent. However, the bow wave effect of high feed costs is stil...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of a smaller than normal soybean crop in 2013 that was also of poor quality, India is facing a shortage of soymeal this year to feed its domestic a...
Market Commentary
A somewhat interesting development in the soy complex is that old crop contracts appeared weaker than new crop in both soybeans and meal. That condition ne...
Research Misdirection and Adequacy; Food and Weapons
There is gnashing of the teeth by some in Washington because public funding of agricultural research is largely ignored. However, this ignores two importan...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A number of South American corn exporters are very scared by the current pricing dynamics because they need movement through the ports, storehouses and oth...
Turk, Pak, Braz; Food Religion
It is entirely feasible that a settlement in the WTO cotton case will involve U.S. taxpayers subsidizing Brazilian cotton farmers so that they can continue...
Market Commentary
Buying into the present downward trend in corn contracts does seem to make sense for the trader who has sufficient capital and a realistically defined exit...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's 2014 winter grains harvest is forecasted at 26.2 MMT, almost 1 MMT more than in 2013. The increase is expected as a result of the gain in average...
Oilseed Highlights
The current marketing year is on track for the combined U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil to set a record. There is also an expectation that thi...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt is considering revisions to its wheat import specifications, particularly moisture, which could once again enable the importation of French wheat. GA...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft again overnight with the soy complex leading the way lower. That softness turned into a much harder downturn once the regular day trading...
EPA Clean Air Plan: Biomass Options Questioned
Perhaps the most telling comment from EPA's Science Advisory Board (SAB) was the recommendation to benchmark electric generation with an ethanol plan...
Political Instability in Ukraine – the Fertilizer Fallout
A major determinant for the competitiveness of Ukrainian fertilizer on global export markets is its cash cost of production, and the country's current conf...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
China's soymeal price fluctuated up to $654/MT during the week of 26 May as most of the country's large and mid-sized feed producers are stocking up ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania are threatening the wheat quality there as the moisture favors the spreading of diseases. These rains are often cou...
Land Rents Headed Down?
The longer-term reality is that unless there is a crop production problem someplace this year that significantly changes the U.S. or world supply situation...
EPA Clean Air Plan: What to Watch for in Ag Impacts
If this plan survives inevitable court challenges, there will be an opportunity for EPA to move this model on to other sectors such as agriculture, particu...
Unintended; False; Survey Says
The group People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) has sparked furor with its "Got Autism?" campaign that seeks to link consumption of dairy prod...
Market Commentary
It was another interesting day in the soy complex. July futures went right down to technical support at $14.78 overnight and then reversed course when the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
What About Argentina?
Seemingly lost in all of the soybean market talk is anything relevant to Argentina. It has been in the background for a very long time for many reasons, ne...
Market Commentary
All markets gradually succumbed to moderate selling pressure as the day wore on. Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower by noon. It was also the last trad...
Cow Paddy; Madness; Bogus; Sailed
The Cairns Group, a coalition of agricultural exporting countries, is trying to reinvigorate WTO negotiations for placing stronger limits on domestic farm...
Global Biodiesel Roundup
Argentina, the world's top biodiesel exporter, is considering a proposed reaction to the EU's imposition of anti-dumping duties on its biodiesel and is als...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India's milk demand rises for many reasons, the sourcing of good, quality milk is one of the main concerns for the large dairy processing companies as s...
Market Commentary
Volume picked up somewhat during the day session in which corn prices ground lower, wheat gave up its overnight gains to join corn in the red and soybeans...
Oilseed Highlights
Why has the U.S. sold almost five times as much soymeal for export in the next marketing year than the average sold in the previous three marketing years a...
Trade Agreements; Speculation; Approps; Biotech
European filmmakers and EU culture ministers are reportedly rallying against the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, chargi...
Super-Villainous GMOs
When we think of superhero/super-villain movies and their common characteristics, it is really not a big stretch to compare them to the strident controvers...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Poultry Leading Mergers and Acquisition Activity
Feed costs for poultry producers are down about 19 percent year-over-year and demand for chicken is strong, given the high prices caused by reduced beef an...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Chinese buyers continued to purchase old crop soybeans from Brazil for June-August. In contrast, the Argentine market remains very quiet, although there is...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia is reported to have exported 24.104 MMT of grain as of 21 May 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14. However, a Rusagrotrans official expects Ju...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The grain and soy futures market price action has evolved into a contest between extremely tight old crop soybean supplies and old crop futures and just ab...
Fuzzy Econ and Science; Biotech and Biofuel
U.S. EPA proposed a reduction in the biofuel mandate, but is reportedly considering walking back a bit on the decision. Lending credence to that outcome is...
MCC/TF; Denials; Shorts
Ideas of all stripes can be threatening to some, but Europe faces the unique risk of completely offshoring the pursuit of scientific ideas. Tie MCC to TF T...
Spring Into Summer
USDA's initial projections for U.S. 2014/15 crop production in the May WASDE seemed quite optimistic at the time they were released in the midst of the ear...
Oilseed Highlights
Industry officials yesterday indicated the Brazilian government is expected tomorrow to increase the minimum amount of biodiesel to be blended into diesel...
Market Commentary
The corn market is signaling technical weakness, and we wonder how long discretionary fund longs will be willing to hang on. They need a weather problem to...
Election Year Issues Kick in: EPA in Crosshairs
Senate Agriculture Committee Republicans have signed a letter to EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy regarding a number of regulatory matters before the agency...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Contracts have been awarded in Egypt for the building of two UAE-financed wheat silos there. These are the first two in the joint UAE/Egypt project to buil...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With prevailing heat wave conditions and indications of a delayed monsoon, several Indian states have issued an advisory stipulating a delay in crop planti...
Once Again We Underestimate Fund Demand
Back eight or nine years ago when the ethanol boom happened and drove prices of everything to new all-time highs, much of that new buying was generated by...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn was steady to 1-2 higher much of the session in trading volume that was something less than half of normal levels ahead of the long weekend. China wil...
Morals; Uncertainty; Baloney
The EU's import ban of seal products on "public moral concerns" was upheld by the WTO Appellate Body and could greatly broaden the use of moral claims for...