As the world recovers ever so gradually from the 2008-10 recession and its aftermath, the percentage of the world's population considered to be middle clas...
Articles
Oilseed Highlights
USDA increased its estimates for Argentina's domestic soymeal consumption yesterday to reflect rising exports of mixed feeds. While most of these exports i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
EPA Extends Comment Period on Water Rule
This delay is considered a major tactical victory by most livestock and agriculture groups. If approved, the new guideline would effectively remove the wor...
Market Commentary
Last year at this time, the red hot cash market and record high basis bids led the soy futures market to high prices and a wide old/new crop inverse. This...
Market Commentary
June WASDEs are seldom major market movers, and today's report was certainly was not bullish. As if by signal, there was a general across-the-board sell of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Buyers in China are reported to be interested in buying Russian grain, and Rosselkhoznadzor (the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveilla...
Majority Leader Who Delayed Farm Bill Ousted in Primary
Yesterday the number two Republican in the House lost his seat in an upset primary. Ironically, Cantor has tried for two years to schedule a legislative ag...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
This year Argentine farmers have sold 1.57 MMT fewer soybeans than the total for the same date a year ago. The most important information for the market is...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Selective; True Colors; Inequality
FAS Agricultural Counselor Allan Mustard (nominated to be U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan) has issued a report exposing how New Delhi is substantially subs...
A Week’s Worth of Differences
The trading record shows how thoroughly the price action of November soybeans has been dominated by the July contract, which is to say, by the very tight o...
Market Commentary
This morning, Brazil's Conab revised its estimate of that country's 2013/14 corn production upward to 77.9 MMT, second only to last year's 81.5 MMT. M...
Trade Policy: Restrictions; UnSchocked
Calculations by the EU indicate that safeguard measures against its exports rose by 10 percent in 2013, and some of the prime blockers included India, Chin...
Oilseed Highlights
India's soybean-producing regions are expected to be particularly vulnerable to inadequate rains from this year's monsoon, and there also is concern about...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt has decided to delay its planned increase in the price of fuel for industry, individuals and homes as the belief is that it would be bad for the over...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ethanol Election; Studies in Failure
Biofuel policy has always been political, and now there is a reported election year effort to use EPA's final decision on the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
House Agenda: Where Ag Fits Into Election Year Politics
While it is likely Congress will work toward having a continuing resolution by the end of the year, three appropriations bills have been tabbed to move for...
What Happens Next?
Soybeans remain the wild card. The big money refuses to let go of the soybean market despite several recent head fakes that looked like the start of a majo...
Market Commentary
The primary bearish factor hanging over the corn and soybean markets is the size of the speculative length. Exiting and rolling of positions by large specu...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Both the Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops are developing under generally favorable conditions, and most analysts estimate that the combined 2014/15 surplu...
China In-Country Analysis
Historically, China has established a minimum purchase price only for buying directly from farmers and replenishing provincial reserves. Now the central go...
Brazil’s Demands; Green Washing; Efficiency
The activist group called Anonymous has reportedly released Brazil's demands for settlement of the WTO cotton case against the U.S., and it is sure to rile...
Market Commentary
The combination of double-digit gains in both July and December corn contracts and the engulfing candlestick pattern of the prior day's close are indicativ...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Canada Legislates Better Rail Service
The uproar over the plight of Canada's rail logistics has been an issue since the 2013 harvest that was 50 percent larger in volume than the 10-year averag...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
To retain agriculturists in the farming business, India's government is eager to provide income security and assist the farming communities in conserving w...
Looking at SNAP Backward and Forward
According to the House Budget Committee report, SNAP spending that totaled $78 billion in 2012 is scheduled to decrease slightly over the next 10 years, bu...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of a smaller than normal soybean crop in 2013 that was also of poor quality, India is facing a shortage of soymeal this year to feed its domestic a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
A somewhat interesting development in the soy complex is that old crop contracts appeared weaker than new crop in both soybeans and meal. That condition ne...
Protein Consumption Still Down with Lower Feed Costs
2014 feed costs are projected down about $6 billion from last year, a drop of more than 11 percent. However, the bow wave effect of high feed costs is stil...
Research Misdirection and Adequacy; Food and Weapons
There is gnashing of the teeth by some in Washington because public funding of agricultural research is largely ignored. However, this ignores two importan...
Ag Review: The Middle East and U.S. Agriculture
Middle East Squeeze The energy abundance brought about by the fracking boom is causing OPEC heartache and could eventually spark another Middle East food c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A number of South American corn exporters are very scared by the current pricing dynamics because they need movement through the ports, storehouses and oth...
Turk, Pak, Braz; Food Religion
It is entirely feasible that a settlement in the WTO cotton case will involve U.S. taxpayers subsidizing Brazilian cotton farmers so that they can continue...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's 2014 winter grains harvest is forecasted at 26.2 MMT, almost 1 MMT more than in 2013. The increase is expected as a result of the gain in average...
Market Commentary
Buying into the present downward trend in corn contracts does seem to make sense for the trader who has sufficient capital and a realistically defined exit...
Political Instability in Ukraine – the Fertilizer Fallout
A major determinant for the competitiveness of Ukrainian fertilizer on global export markets is its cash cost of production, and the country's current conf...
Oilseed Highlights
The current marketing year is on track for the combined U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil to set a record. There is also an expectation that thi...
EPA Clean Air Plan: Biomass Options Questioned
Perhaps the most telling comment from EPA's Science Advisory Board (SAB) was the recommendation to benchmark electric generation with an ethanol plan...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft again overnight with the soy complex leading the way lower. That softness turned into a much harder downturn once the regular day trading...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt is considering revisions to its wheat import specifications, particularly moisture, which could once again enable the importation of French wheat. GA...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Unintended; False; Survey Says
The group People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) has sparked furor with its "Got Autism?" campaign that seeks to link consumption of dairy prod...
China In-Country Analysis
China's soymeal price fluctuated up to $654/MT during the week of 26 May as most of the country's large and mid-sized feed producers are stocking up ...
Land Rents Headed Down?
The longer-term reality is that unless there is a crop production problem someplace this year that significantly changes the U.S. or world supply situation...
EPA Clean Air Plan: What to Watch for in Ag Impacts
If this plan survives inevitable court challenges, there will be an opportunity for EPA to move this model on to other sectors such as agriculture, particu...
Market Commentary
It was another interesting day in the soy complex. July futures went right down to technical support at $14.78 overnight and then reversed course when the...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania are threatening the wheat quality there as the moisture favors the spreading of diseases. These rains are often cou...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India's milk demand rises for many reasons, the sourcing of good, quality milk is one of the main concerns for the large dairy processing companies as s...
What About Argentina?
Seemingly lost in all of the soybean market talk is anything relevant to Argentina. It has been in the background for a very long time for many reasons, ne...
Market Commentary
All markets gradually succumbed to moderate selling pressure as the day wore on. Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower by noon. It was also the last trad...
Cow Paddy; Madness; Bogus; Sailed
The Cairns Group, a coalition of agricultural exporting countries, is trying to reinvigorate WTO negotiations for placing stronger limits on domestic farm...
Global Biodiesel Roundup
Argentina, the world's top biodiesel exporter, is considering a proposed reaction to the EU's imposition of anti-dumping duties on its biodiesel and is als...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Trade Agreements; Speculation; Approps; Biotech
European filmmakers and EU culture ministers are reportedly rallying against the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, chargi...
Oilseed Highlights
Why has the U.S. sold almost five times as much soymeal for export in the next marketing year than the average sold in the previous three marketing years a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Volume picked up somewhat during the day session in which corn prices ground lower, wheat gave up its overnight gains to join corn in the red and soybeans...
Super-Villainous GMOs
When we think of superhero/super-villain movies and their common characteristics, it is really not a big stretch to compare them to the strident controvers...
Poultry Leading Mergers and Acquisition Activity
Feed costs for poultry producers are down about 19 percent year-over-year and demand for chicken is strong, given the high prices caused by reduced beef an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Chinese buyers continued to purchase old crop soybeans from Brazil for June-August. In contrast, the Argentine market remains very quiet, although there is...
Fuzzy Econ and Science; Biotech and Biofuel
U.S. EPA proposed a reduction in the biofuel mandate, but is reportedly considering walking back a bit on the decision. Lending credence to that outcome is...
Market Commentary
The grain and soy futures market price action has evolved into a contest between extremely tight old crop soybean supplies and old crop futures and just ab...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia is reported to have exported 24.104 MMT of grain as of 21 May 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14. However, a Rusagrotrans official expects Ju...
MCC/TF; Denials; Shorts
Ideas of all stripes can be threatening to some, but Europe faces the unique risk of completely offshoring the pursuit of scientific ideas. Tie MCC to TF T...
Market Commentary
The corn market is signaling technical weakness, and we wonder how long discretionary fund longs will be willing to hang on. They need a weather problem to...
Oilseed Highlights
Industry officials yesterday indicated the Brazilian government is expected tomorrow to increase the minimum amount of biodiesel to be blended into diesel...
Spring Into Summer
USDA's initial projections for U.S. 2014/15 crop production in the May WASDE seemed quite optimistic at the time they were released in the midst of the ear...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Election Year Issues Kick in: EPA in Crosshairs
Senate Agriculture Committee Republicans have signed a letter to EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy regarding a number of regulatory matters before the agency...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Contracts have been awarded in Egypt for the building of two UAE-financed wheat silos there. These are the first two in the joint UAE/Egypt project to buil...
Ag Appropriations Moving Forward
Both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees are working within the constraints of keeping total discretionary funding at $1.014 trillion, which cam...
Morals; Uncertainty; Baloney
The EU's import ban of seal products on "public moral concerns" was upheld by the WTO Appellate Body and could greatly broaden the use of moral claims for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With prevailing heat wave conditions and indications of a delayed monsoon, several Indian states have issued an advisory stipulating a delay in crop planti...
Market Commentary
Corn was steady to 1-2 higher much of the session in trading volume that was something less than half of normal levels ahead of the long weekend. China wil...
Once Again We Underestimate Fund Demand
Back eight or nine years ago when the ethanol boom happened and drove prices of everything to new all-time highs, much of that new buying was generated by...
Oilseed Highlights
Data released yesterday by China's General Administration of Customs indicates Chinese soybean processors have sharply increased their soymeal exports in t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Reprise: The U.S. and World Grain Prices
The recent price movements of the world's most widely-watched soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts have called to mind once again the question of what...
Choosing a Cat Fight
Washington offers multiple and varied opportunities to engage in the agricultural policy debate, and today presented two competing options that are both an...
Market Commentary
With two weeks of the crop year left to account for, wheat shipments are more than 120 million bushels below USDA's estimate. There seems no way that gap c...
FY 2015 Appropriations Bill
The House passed the agricultural appropriations bill for FY 2015 yesterday, and its biggest controversy revolves around USDA efforts to make school lunche...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil needs to seriously consider trade issues as it may become the leading soybean exporter next season. Minister of Agriculture Neri Geller declared tha...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released the minutes from its April meeting today, and the stock market seemed to like what it read. General Comments The U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As of 16 May, Ukraine's grain exports totaled 30.5 MMT, 43.2 percent more than during the same period in the previous market year. Included were 8.8 MMT of...
Dark Prince; Breakthrough
China will correctly exploit science, technology and mechanization to advance its own agricultural production, but it will err if it worries about the Lest...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
GI Campaign
The EU is subsidizing an education campaign in the U.S. with the goal of having its farmers clamor for geographic indicators (GIs), but the trick is for Br...
Soybean Market Fun and Games
The soybean futures market seems to ignore the seemingly inevitable, bearish shift in soybean supply/demand fundamentals in 2014/15. It is almost as though...
Farmland, Credit Conditions and the Fed’s Exit Strategy
We've been in a period of low interest rates and high commodity prices that have helped drive up farm real estate values. Now the Federal Reserve is consid...
Oilseed Highlights
There are indications that at least five more cargoes of Brazilian soybeans are ether on their way to the U.S. or soon will be. Additional shipments of Bra...
Market Commentary
It was a rather strange day for grain and soy markets, which saw prices swinging in wide trading ranges. General Comments It was a rather strange day for...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Chamber of Commerce in Egypt has announced that it is working with four banks there to provide financing for the expansion of the poultry industry in U...
Market Commentary
Soybeans again defied all of the bearish fundamental inputs and rallied sharply on significant fund buying. That left many in the trade looking for a solid...
Reorganizing USDA for Trade
Given the importance and volatility of non-tariff trade barrier issues, the catalyst behind the reorganization was the need to have a central trade authori...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) and Ministry of Education together recently launched the "Training Plan for New Type Professional Farmers." This init...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The heavy pressure on the Black Sea market last week was driven by the multinational trading houses after the collapse of the futures' markets in the U.S...
India’s Election Result and the Global Phosphates Market
The prospect of a new government with a strong economic agenda has recently helped the INR recoup some of its losses, which could result in improved afford...
The Issue of Rail Logistics
The situation in Canada is far worse than in the U.S., and all of this has prompted much talk about how long the logistical problems will last. Some are ev...
Wobbles; Cost of Purity; Traps
A House Agriculture Appropriations subcommittee considers a $20.9 billion FY 2015 funding bill tomorrow that would provide the Farm Service Agency with a $...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
This late spring will result in fewer corn acres across the Northern Plains. North Dakota, for example, was expected to plant 2.95 million acres of corn in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Dying for Rice; Faithless; Naked Tommy
It is hard to complain after pondering the conditions in North Korea where it is reported that Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has ordered up some reforms in ag...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Mr.Narendra Modi, known to be very pro-technology, is expected to be India's new prime minister with the predicted landslide victory for the Hindu-dominate...
Market Commentary
November soybean futures were again about the only agricultural commodity to trade on the plus side today. China said it will sell 300,000 MT of soybeans f...
New Farm Program: Choices Ahead
Congress made a number of significant changes to crop support programs with the Agricultural Act of 2014, and farmers must make a one-time enrollment choic...
The Market’s Next Task
For the past three years, strong market prices were needed to encourage sufficient crop production to meet growing demand. The next task for the market to...
Killing; Disclosure; El Niño
There is a very vocal opposition to TTIP in Europe, and politics will shift further against it when EU Parliament elections next week likely empower more p...
Second BSE Case in Brazil
The cow was born on a farm it never left and where animals are fed by pasture grazing and mineral salts, rather than manufactured feed. Korea, Egypt, Peru...
Market Commentary
Good wheat crop prospects elsewhere, the lack of demand from importers and lower offers from Black Sea sellers seem to have overcome the impact of the drou...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Lieutenant General Mi Zhenyu, former deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Military Science, recently wrote that the inclusion of soybean protein from...
Trade Policy Angles
One has to greatly sympathize with the conclusions reached by Copa-Cogeca, Europe's central farm organization, that the EU Commission's pursuit of a trade...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Ihor Shvaika met with EU commissioners on 13 May to discuss trade-related issues and further developme...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Shipments of Argentine soybeans are quite delayed this season due to a late harvest, quality issues and problems in the port of Necochea that limit the dra...
Market Commentary
Grains seemed neglected during the overnight session as witnessed by a very light trading volume. After a slow and mixed start, the day session saw more tr...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The trade reports that Egypt's payment for government-purchased grains is slowing significantly with delays in opening letters of credit for tender purchas...
U.S.-Korea FTA Under Fire with Implications for TPP
Four Democratic members of the House of Representatives issued a press release criticizing the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) regarding numbers related t...
Market Commentary
It was Turnaround Tuesday for the corn and soy complex futures markets as prices rebounded from yesterday's sinking spell. The turnaround began during the...
Oilseed Highlights
Farmers in northern Argentina evidently have found a way of avoiding the nation's 35 percent export tax by smuggling their soybeans into neighboring Paragu...
HFT is Manageable
At today's Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, even Andrei Kirilenko, the former CFTC chief economist and now MIT professor brought in to critique HFT, o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Demand is the Thing
The world's combined ending stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans are projected to be almost 88 MMT greater than they were just two years prior. Said another...
Court Rejects Challenge to 2013 Biofuels Mandate
At issue were whether EPA set the 2013 RVOs too late to be valid, a precedent that will have implications for this year, and if both the overall and advanc...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
For the moment, the trend of increasing quality that was observed in the Bulgarian and Romanian wheat crop during the past five years will be reversed as f...
Market Commentary
Evidently, the funds that have been long decided to start liquidating some of that length following last Friday's USDA reports as well as what appears to b...
Reality; Over-Certified; Amish
Policymakers in recent years have sought ways to offset the market's tendency toward commoditization in agriculture and thus raise farmer income by extract...
China In-Country Analysis
China's auction of state temporary soybean reserves will begin 13 May 2014, according to official sources, and it is estimated that the size will reach 3 M...
Show Me the Weather
It looks from here like wheat might have the tightest fundamentals going into MY 2014/15. Weather's impact on feed grains production (either negative or po...
May USDA WASDE
USDA's total U.S. wheat production estimate came in below what the trade was expecting. We also note that USDA's hard red winter wheat production estimate...
Good News, and More of the Same
It doesn't happen often, but it looks like Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the House will be sending a reauthorization of the Water Resources R...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were lower and soybeans mixed in very light overnight trading volume ahead of this morning's USDA reports. In spite of a bearish new...
Sugar Antidumping Case against Mexico
The Department of Commerce initiated an investigation last month to determine if the Mexican government has subsidized the country's sugar production and w...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's milk production is declining, and prices are rising with the approach of summer when demand typically increases. Stocks of skimmed milk powder (SMP...
Truth in Labeling
Consumer Reports has now found that 81 percent of those surveyed believe the organic label means that no pesticides were used in production, which is erron...
Issues and Questions
While the May WASDE provides a first look at USDA's analytical insights for the following crop year, it seems the remainder of each old crop year can no lo...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was mixed with soybeans trying to reverse this week's downward trend, while wheat and corn were a little weaker. The day session saw simila...
Oilseed Highlights
The soybean surplus on the Chinese market will apparently worsen beginning next week as Sinograins announced today that it will auction 300,000 MT of soybe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China Stockpiling Pork
China's fresh pork prices are at their lowest point since September 2010 and down 19 percent from September of last year. As a result, the Chinese National...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Chinese crushers have returned to demand soybeans from South America. Following two months of inactivity and desperate attempts to resell cargoes of prior...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's annual report covering food safety has noted that measures taken by the government to stabilize the situation in agriculture will result in genera...
Market Commentary
Based on anecdotal evidence, it seems likely that next Monday's USDA report should show corn planting progress reaching close to 60 percent, or even more,...
Diversity; Trade Policy Curiosities
Whatever was discussed between Japanese Prime Minister Abe and U.S. President Obama a few days ago becomes more curious by the day. Diversity Marketing Pla...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The U.S. cottonseed shortage has been exacerbated by the nation's dairy and cattle feeding sectors' continued strong demand for its usage in direct feeding...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Wheat farmers in Kenya are very concerned because of an outbreak of wheat stem rust. No control for this type of wheat rust exists as it was first seen in...
Market Commentary
Unlike last year, soybean bulls are getting no help whatsoever from the cash market. Soybean crushers are relaxed, and export demand has fallen to a trickl...
Trade Deficit and Energy
Energy is one of the most interesting aspects of the U.S. balance of payments account. Higher energy production in the U.S. is transforming the nation's tr...
Free Riders: Bali, Aid, Beef
African trade ministers have apparently decided to act like Cape buffalo with a decision last week that reverses their commitment at the WTO ministerial in...
Wheat Market Conundrum
The U.S. wheat futures markets are facing a dilemma. Should they price the relatively bullish wheat supply/demand balance, or the relatively bearish world...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Review: Commentary on Opportunities in Agriculture
Opportunity: Complementarity The TTIP negotiations are an opportunity, despite the skepticism. The challenge is overcoming all of the pitfalls and finding...
Market Commentary
It was the record-high temperatures and strong winds across the Southern Plains over the weekend that rallied wheat markets. Some weather forecasters were...
Anti; Mysteries; Shorts; and Surveys
France is insisting that if the EU does not invoke a ban on imports of hogs and pork as a result of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv), it will uni...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Stats Canada released its quarterly stocks estimates this morning, and today's numbers again highlighted the magnitude of Canada's 2013 crop production. S...
South America Highlights
Current economic dynamics in Brazil and Argentina are creating some opportunities for the agricultural sectors in both Uruguay and Paraguay. Brazil The Bra...
China In-Country Analysis
China's milk powder imports reached a record-high 109,000 MT in March as AQSIQ recently announced that imported milk products without labels in Chinese are...
Legislative Agenda for the Year
There are only about 40 scheduled days of legislative session left for the remaining 2014 legislative calendar. That leaves the Congressional schedule very...
Economy Poised for Second Quarter Growth in 2014
Consumer spending was unusually strong as it surged 0.9 percent in March, the largest gain since 2005 with the exception of one month in 2009. The release...
U.S. HRW Wheat Crop Collapsing
The smallest HRW production number going all the way back more than 45 years was 620 million bushels in 2002, although It's not likely we can see a disaste...
Market Commentary
Wheat had a great deal of bullish news today, which started with the Kansas crop tour results. General Comments Markets were slightly higher in quiet overn...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The EU temporary ban on imports of select Indian fruit and vegetables could have wide implications for a variety of other produce subject to the same quara...
Expanding the Foodie Concept
Recognizing the intellectual superiority of small, local and organic over conventionally-produced foods, a new initiative will seek to mimic the approach i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tokenism; Fishy; Man Bites Dog
Members of Congress have demanded that Japan agree to zero tariffs on agricultural products, but they apparently will not be getting their wish. Tokenism E...
State of the Livestock Industry
Trade was a major topic covered by most of the witnesses testifying at yesterday's hearing held by the Livestock, Rural Development and Credit subcommittee...
Market Commentary
Given what was happening with soybeans and corn, today's price break by CME wheat seemed about in line, and KC HRW's losses actually appear rather modest...
Oilseed Highlights
The government of China recently issued its first official Agricultural Outlook Report, covering the period 2014-2023. Among other projections in the repor...
Old Perceptions and New Perceptions
It occurs to us that if nothing else, the flipping of the calendar page to May will force a re-examination of the perceptions that directed the market's pr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
What is Meant
European Commission President José Durâo Barroso is in Washington, and his message is that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreem...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices for the 2014 Russian grain harvest are expected to be influenced equally by both political and climate-related factors. Due to the pending holidays,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina remains largely out of the global soybean market as exporters are not offering beans with regular quality (basis 34 percent, minimum 34.5 percent...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Policy Shorts
U.S. House Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee Chair David Nunes (R-California) warned today that if President Obama fails to compel Congressional passage...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures prices, led by KC HRW, responded to pessimistic reports from the Plains HRW crop tour and little sign of drought relief in the offing. Genera...
HFCS Trends: Red Bull a Bear for Corn Sweetener
Energy drinks were a $350 million market in 2000 and reached about $9 billion in 2013, a 2,471 percent growth. Red Bull is the category's market leader.Bac...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Farmers in Zimbabwe continue to be unhappy with the government's set purchase price for local corn that is said to be about $30/MT lower than the cost of p...
Welfare; Betrayal; Externalities
If one believes the organic industry, it produces more ethical food that is safer and more nutritious. Some in the organic community now want to incorporat...
Corn’s Changing Dynamics
The plain fact is that we all missed the pent-up corn demand and end user stock building, inspired by the low harvest time prices that seemed very attracti...
Oilseed Highlights
Two organizations in India have concluded that the country should focus on increasing the use of soybeans to alleviate protein malnutrition, rather than ex...
Market Commentary
The Kansas crop tour got underway this morning, and the first report from the tour popped KC wheat futures to double-digit gains. General Comments Markets...
Ignoring the Valuable; Biotech Labeling Retort
Given that 70 percent of processed food in the U.S. may contain at least one ingredient from food biotechnology, there are at least three constitutional la...
China In-Country Analysis
While the long-term fundamentals suggest that the ongoing westernization of China's diet should lead to increased imports of soybeans, corn and pork, the c...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The general perception in the market is that the wheat is overpriced due to the high political risk premium now included since the start of the Ukrainian/R...
Market Commentary
After a sharply higher early overnight trade, grain and soy futures gradually calmed down to finish the first trading session of the week in relatively pla...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Stats Canada Acreage Data
There is some concern that western Canadian farmers' planting plans are still in flux because the spring season has been so slow to arrive.Stats Canada rel...
Food Aid Is Secondary Priority of Food Aid Programs
According to some policymakers, the requirement that aid be sent on U.S.-flagged vessels might be the most important issue.The White House has long ma...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed in very light volume throughout most of the night session, but the tone gradually changed for several reasons. General Comments Markets...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With the IMD predicting a 56 percent probability of a deficient or below-normal monsoon for India, the impact on the farm sector and the country's overall...
Notes from Asia
The real story from Asia continues to be the expansion of the middle class and how that will continue to drive demand for everything from agricultural comm...
Trade Trumped; Greek Spin; Cow Poop; Etc.
Given that free trade is about unleashing economic comparative advantage, there is much to worry about in Greek agriculture. Security Trumps Business, Agai...
Cellulosic Ethanol May Not Reduce Emissions
There was another blow to the cellulosic mandate this week as well as a new study challenging the notion that advanced biofuels reduce greenhouse gas emiss...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Trade Truth; Middle East, Commodities
Turning public opinion into a supportive force that can overcome special interests will require political leadership in Washington, Brussels, Tokyo and man...
Oilseed Highlights
Today it was confirmed that three employees of Marubeni's Columbia Grain subsidiary were arrested in China. Although it is believed to be soy-related, the...
Possible Brazilian Mad Cow Case
This potential case could be similar to a 2012 incident in Parana where an animal developed the prion, or abnormal, pathogenic agents that induce folding o...
Too High or Too Low
When we or anyone says that a particular market price is too high or too low, it may sound like we are saying that the market is wrong even though the mark...
Market Commentary
After some overnight weakness, prices at all three wheat futures markets rallied to post double-digit gains. The apparent worsening situation in Ukraine an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina is not as affected as Brazil by the Chinese soybean situation, but its beans have been found to have quality problems that could be a reason for...
Trade Convulsions; Reorg
The EU wants the U.S. Congress to pass Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) as soon as possible, but the European resistance to fixing current trade barriers is...
Market Commentary
Signs indicate that demand for old crop corn remains brisk, and corn exports are holding to a level that appears to justify USDA's latest estimate of 1.75...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia exported 194,800 MT of sunflower oil in March 2014 (a 5 percent gain compared to February 2014 and 48 percent more than March 2013), the highest&nbs...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Foreign Assistance: Unneeded Advice
Indeed, it is hundreds of U.S. domestic programs that fail the government's Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART), but continue to be funded.Experts gather...
Oilseed Highlights
China's Ministry of Commerce today raised its forecast for the country's April soybean imports. However, the recent defaults on soybean imports and rumors...
Citing a Few Potential Market Factors
The potential for unforeseen internal and external influences to move prices in either direction, short-term and/or long-term, remains at least as large as...
Market Commentary
The soybean market was rife with rumors of Chinese defaults and a Chinese government crackdown on letters of credit, supposedly issued to pay for commodity...
USDA Creates Investment Fund
The industries eligible for this new federally-facilitated investment fund include bio-manufacturing, advanced energy production, local and regional food s...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's government has advised that current stocks and orders of wheat will last until 19 June 2014, while the country's wheat crop has a very wide range o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
The Chinese government's stricter inspections of imported DDGS is currently affecting the domestic rapeseed meal price and also a factor in its growing dem...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
There were reports of a frost/freeze across Argentina that might have done some damage to late-planted corn and soybeans, but this news didn't cause a ripp...
Ethanol Roundup
Interestingly, as the import window into the U.S. appears to be closing, the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) is reporting that domestic et...
U.S. Soybean Outlook
We note that every year at this time we have looked at projections for rapidly building soybean ending supplies in the U.S. that have yet to materialize, e...
U.S.–Japan in the Spotlight
While a complete TPP agreement is not expected, the weights of geopolitics, national security and economics have converged to pressure President Obama and...
Oilseed Highlights
Because China is such a dominant soybean importer, the crushers there think they have the upper hand in forcing sellers to renegotiate prices to a lower le...
The Soybean Puzzle
Does the fundamental outlook for soybeans as seen right now in April 2014 deserve an old crop/new crop inverse so much wider than during April 2013?For som...
Market Commentary
Today's early trade saw wheat prices firm, while corn and the complex traded mostly with red numbers. Volume was fairly active for a pre-long weekend sessi...
Easter Inflation
Not since the corn price run-up in 2008 have eggs been as expensive, and their prices are at a six-year high. Easter Inflation In keeping with seasonal dem...
Currency; TPP Deal; Waste; Bad Seed
The signals regarding TPP just days before President Obama heads to Japan are mixed and confusing. Currency Conundrum Some powerful congressional Democrats...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As of 11 April 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, Ukraine has exported 28.338 MMT of grain. According to Ukrainian Grain Association President Vlad...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybean selling by Argentine farmers is projected to substantially increase going into June, potentially to a record level, as a result of the increased ha...
Italian Reform; Curbing Speculators
Italy's proposed agricultural policy modifications include some 21st century concepts, while others appear to be more of the same, making it only partial r...
Market Commentary
With the Ukrainian/Russian crisis always lurking and the U.S. HRW crop not in good shape, wheat futures prices are moving up and down nervously. General Co...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Potential Impact of U.S. Soybean Imports
The U.S. 2013/14 soybean year will be unique in a number of ways. One of its most unusual elements will be record-large imports with a majority of the fina...
Oilseed Highlights
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) today released a surprisingly large soybean crush report for March that was the main reason soybean futu...
GAO Reports on RFS Impact on Refineries
The study was requested by Senators David Vitter (R-Louisiana) and James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) with the specific topic of how regulatory costs impact the com...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Jordan will need to continue importing close to 100 percent of its needed wheat supply, according to USDA FAS in Amman. With the influx of Syrian refugees,...
Market Commentary
The strength of wheat and soybeans and fear that the Ukrainian situation is escalating probably kept the corn market from closing lower. General Comments T...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
With 27 MMT of exports, the EU wheat carryout stocks will be significantly tighter than last year. However, Western Europe's crop seems to be developing fa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
Due to the Chinese government's corn procurement in major production provinces, it seems probable that China's domestic corn prices have hit bottom and wil...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There have been several announcements from the Canadian grain trade recently about big new investments in grain handling infrastructure. There have been s...
Chemophobes; Off-Expertise
Separating otherwise safe, concurrent uses of chemicals is as wrong a strategy as the Maginot Line. Organic matter is chemical matter at its base. Chemopho...
UN Publishes Sustainability Guide
Its premise is that traceability is one of the greatest tools for impacting sustainability. If traceability is going to develop, it has to either be mandat...
Market Commentary
Corn tried to tag along with wheat, but never got better than 8-9 higher and actually faded slightly at the close. General Comments Three weekend events pu...
Market Commentary
It has been a very volatile week with Wednesday's USDA WASDE sandwiched in the middle and providing a bullish burst to corn and soybeans. General Comments...
The Corn Outlook is Changing
It will now take more than a record yield per acre to again start talking about 2014-15 corn ending supplies exceeding 1.5-1.6 billion bushels.We've gone f...
Trade Negotiations Struggles; Correction
An American tourist can see the sights in a half-dozen European cities within a week or less, yet USDA will need 6-7 months to look at the meat inspection...
House Passes Budget Resolution
The budget cuts domestic programs by $791 billion in the years 2016-2024, while it increases defense spending by $483 billion. The House passed its versio...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has suggested that it is too early to predict the monsoon pattern and El Niño's effect, but it has also issued w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Meat and Livestock Overview
Retail beef prices have tested the consumer limit with 13 percent growth over the past year, while pork prices have been tempered by increased slaughter we...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports indicate Chinese soybean importers have defaulted on 10 or more cargoes of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, fewer than in 2004 when buyers forfeited up...
Dodd-Frank and CFTC Reauthorization
The House Ag Committee, which holds congressional oversight authority over the CFTC along with the Senate Ag Committee, decided to use the CFTC reauthoriza...
STA; Corpse Logic; Condiments
TPA is dead, long live STA. When a concept is in trouble, public relations experts start rebranding. Evolving Acronyms TPA is dead, long live STA. When a c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The market's tepid price action following yesterday's bullish (for soybeans and corn) WASDE was considered disappointing to market bulls, and long liquidat...
Market Commentary
The changes USDA and WOAB analysts made to their 2013/14 U.S. and world supply/demand estimates tracked closely with private expectations in terms of direc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The president of the Russian Grain Union said Russia's current financial problems may negatively impact the planting of grains. Ukraine has planted early s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The main concern about Argentine soybeans this season relates to protein content. Current protein levels are below normal this harvest and that fact is mak...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Cake; Meat; Gorilla
When it comes to stoking global economic activity, the 800-pound gorilla rattling some markets is the potential slowdown in China's growth. Late as Usual R...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Advanced Biofuels Hearing In Senate
The need for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and other federal policies to support the industry and attract investment was a key theme of today's hearing...
Market Commentary
Today's higher grain and soy prices reflected the market's expectation that tomorrow's WASDE will be bullish. General Comments Although trading of a number...
The April WASDE and Thereafter
Tomorrow's report could have considerable importance in market terms since non-commercials are so heavily invested on the long side of corn and soybeans.US...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's Red Sea Ports Authority (RSPA) has announced that it will be developing a new wheat import facility in Adabiya Port that is expected to handle abou...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
News UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTSFrance Export Cereals (FEC) has said that the country needs to exert more effort in developing Egypt's privat...
Selective Science
Britain's Soil Society, the organization pushing organic agriculture in the UK, is apoplectic over a study in the British Journal of Cancer. Selective Scie...
Oilseed Highlights
It now appears the EU's 2014 rapeseed production will be up sharply from the last two years and approach the record 2009 crop. South American Soybeans Begi...
A Look at Northern Plains Profit Potential
There are only three crops that show a positive net return, and barley is really not an alternative today.The table below is from the Carrington, North Dak...
Ag Review: Crimea and it's Implications
Crimea River History suggests that geopolitical troubles have less impact on food production than fundamentals like the weather. Crimea: Present Situation,...
Market Commentary
Soybeans again had a 20-cent trading range with prices lower most of the session and the old crop/new crop spreads losing some ground. There was talk of th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
China In-Country Analysis
13 Chinese government agencies, led by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), recently issued guidelines aimed at establishing a unified agricultural market me...
Impacts of Geopolitics and Technology
Improving Japanese farm labor misses the larger shift that needs to occur if the nation's agriculture is to survive liberalization under TPP.U.S. trade neg...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The corn plantings in Romania and Bulgaria have started under favorable weather conditions, and we estimate that the corn acreage will marginally decrease...
Railroads, 2014 Volumes and Court Case
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), rail cars spent twice the time between loading and unloading in the Midwest than last year d...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Minor Crop Acres
The issue with some of these very minor crops is that it doesn't take much of an increase or decrease in acreage to have a major impact on prices.We get so...
Clear as Mud; Biotech
EPA's recently proposed "interpretive guidance" on Clean Water Act regulations made for some fun in the agriculture community this week. Clear as Mud Norma...
Biodiesel Tax Credit
While the biodiesel tax credit has been extended retroactively in the past, it has had a unique impact.The Senate Finance Committee considered and passed i...
Market Commentary
Wheat turned decidedly weaker early this morning and dragged corn lower as well, while soybeans again traded both sides of unchanged much of the session. G...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Prices of skimmed milk powder (SMP) have soared in India. There is a shortage as the government of India (GOI) did not regulate SMP exports and the deficit...
PEDv Update; Hogs and Pigs Report
There is good news this week regarding the number of PEDv cases during the latter part of March, and there is seemingly some hog market reaction. PEDv Upda...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
The Focus on High Frequency Trading
The topic of high frequency trading (HFT) of equities and commodities has become all the rage and raises several questions that generate a wide difference...
Oilseed Highlights
It is particularly interesting that the U.S. has not seen a drop-off in soymeal exports to the EU in 2013/14. U.S. Soymeal Export Sales and Shipments Very...
Market Commentary
Total U.S. corn export commitments have now reached USDA's latest forecast for all of 2013/14, actually 2 million bushels above it with five months of the...
Monkey See; Risks Ahead; TPP Rollercoaster
Former Lehman Brothers chief economist John Llewellyn notes that developing countries with sufficiently bad scores in terms of budget deficits, trade defic...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American soybean prices have been hesitant to follow futures markets higher. The result is that Argentine basis continued to weaken last week. Corn T...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As of 31 March 2014, Ukraine has exported 27.351 MMT of grain from the beginning of the market year, and preliminary forecasts indicate the country's grain...
Extenders; Mercantilists; Cotton; Geopolitics
A successful public forum by the WTO should be centered on why imports are actually good for everyone and emphasize that the focus cannot be solely on the...
Market Commentary
Since USDA's reports on Monday, the futures price action has given farmers the opportunity to unload some of their ownership and given users the opportunit...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
March Report Thoughts
That the trade's analysis of stocks and acreage turned out to be so close to USDA's survey results is another way of saying that yesterday's reports were s...
Market Commentary
The wheat market has backed off after its long bull run and has begun to cast weaker technical signals. This has caused some liquidation selling and the un...
Primitivism; Disincentive; DETs
Researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) estimate that Argentina's biodiesel production would increase by 9.6 percent if the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Oilseed Highlights
India's soybean processors are struggling to supply the domestic poultry and aquaculture markets with soymeal as they cannot source enough supplies. USDA R...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
There is a problem with Egypt's domestic grain silos project, financed with funds from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), that was intended to build 25 storag...
Biodiesel Blenders’ Credit in Senate Bill, Out of House
With strong support for passing some extenders, the biodiesel tax credit and the cellulosic tax credit both have strong individual supporters who are likel...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
We Finally Have the Numbers!
You can plug any yield you like into these acreage estimates today and come up with bullish and bearish outcomes.Today's USDA quarterly stocks and planting...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU has now allocated 22.7 MMT of wheat export licenses versus 15.1 MMT a year ago, and its wheat balance will be dangerously tight at the end of...
China In-Country Analysis
More crushers have suspended or slowed production in order to mitigate crushing losses. It is projected that soyoil prices will remain weak, but there is l...
Market Commentary
The market felt like wheat again became the short leg of the corn and soybean markets. If you don't trust a rally, you sell something else against it. Gene...
Argentina Petitions EPA for Biodiesel Pathway
Some Argentine producers have been through this process previously with sorghum that was imported and used to make ethanol in California.Argentina's biodie...
Wrong; Imperfect; Smuggled and Quantified
A WTO agriculture committee meeting revealed why it will be difficult to get the Doha negotiations back on track. Naturally Wrong Recently installed Federa...
Market Commentary
Corn was surprisingly firm today with wheat getting hammered and ahead of Monday's USDA reports that many analysts believe will be bearish. General Comment...
Biofuel Roundup
Ethanol groups continue to push for EPA to increase the Required Volume Obligations (RVO), arguing that the agency was overly dismissive of E15 and E85 use...
Unsweet; Smoggy Thinking; Retaliation
The sanctions battle between Moscow and Washington continues apace, and it seems only a matter of time before Russia starts arbitrary restrictions on impor...
Monday’s USDA Reports
The most important number in the quarterly stocks numbers will be the 1 March corn stocks, and the contest this year with planting intentions will be how m...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The state government of Maharashtra has assessed the weather-related crop damage there at $1.63 billion and the area affected at about 1.8 million hectares...
Oilseed Highlights
U.S. soybean exports thus far in 2013/14 are now at 39.835 MMT and unshipped soybean export sales stand at 4.609 MMT for a total of 44.444 MT, ...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet and somewhat weaker overnight, but this changed during the day session when corn and wheat turned and headed higher. General Comments O...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
“Once More unto the Breach”
It seems fair to say that the corn market is at risk if, like last year, next Monday's corn stocks are much greater than anticipated.We hope that students...
Sour Trade Policy; Language Rationale
The same divided opinion that has stalled Doha for 13 years remains: defining whether development results from trade or from protectionism. Sour Trade Poli...
PEDv Update
Smithfield, the largest pork processing plant in the U.S., announced that it has decided to run its Tar Heel, NC facility only four days a week and suggest...
Trade Policy Hurdles
A Wilson Center panel on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) today painted a mixed picture on the outlook for an agreement. TTIP Regu...
Market Commentary
Farmers are using the highest wheat prices they have seen in many months to price some of their anticipated production. General Comments The war of words b...
Strategic Interests Everywhere
One country's strategic interest is another's free enterprise.One of the challenges for U.S. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiators is achieving...
Oilseed Highlights
It is rare that palm oil trades at a premium to soyoil, but a shortage is resulting in higher prices that are expected to lead to substantial increases in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There seems to be considerable demand to buy combos of Argentine corn and meal together as Argentine meal can help offset the price of corn, and both produ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine has exported 26.8 MMT of grains as of 24 March 2014 with a total grain export forecast of 33 MMT for MY 2013/14. Russian Grain Markets Planti...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Global Derivatives Trade Rebounds - Slightly
As we all know, 2012 was a very difficult year for the derivatives world. The good news in 2013 is that the volume plunge was reversed.Detailed annual data...
Many More Cattle on Feed
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Moody's is reviewing the ratings for 10 Turkish banks with the trade expecting that there could be a general downgrade for all involved, affecting their in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Organic Fudge; EPA likes Ag; TTIP Quid Pro Quo
U.S. trade negotiators should view the EU's demand for recognition of its system of protected designations of origin (PDO) and protected geographical...
Market Commentary
It has been a day of light trading volume and somewhat more limited price movements with corn closing lower, soybeans closing higher and mixed closes for w...
Market Commentary
Soybeans, corn and wheat all rallied sharply on what looked like fund buying after Europe came to work today, which is when the fireworks started. General...
Skewing Climate, Country and Organic
The European Commission's Trade and Investment Barriers Report 2014 takes issue with the U.S. approach of approving meat inspection equivalency on a countr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Correction
The analysis piece entitled "March Madness" in the 21 March edition of Ag Perspectives contains two errors.The analysis piece entitled "March Madness" in t...
Tomorrow’s House Appropriations Ag Subcommittee Hearing on Nutrition
A variety of issues raised at a previous hearing with USDA Secretary Vilsack are expected to spill over into a more technical discussion with Under Secreta...
No Carry in Corn
If the smart money is betting that corn ending supplies will increase from 1.5 billion bushels this year to more than 2 billion next year, shouldn't we be...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukraine's export program from its ports currently appears to be undisturbed by the crisis. However, several Russian banks reportedly have stopped providing...
China In-Country Analysis
The Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC) recently urged the government to accelerate the sales of reserve grains and cottons. Borrowing for the st...
Latest Consumer Trend in Food: Agricultural Land
The potential new trend now is land rights, or at least land acquisition. While not a primary issue for U.S agriculture yet, it is a new, complicating fact...
Disconnect in Russia; Cellulosic Folly; Religion
Politicians in the West often do not understand market economics, so it is understandable that a former KGB spy uses fiat instead of making a business deal...
March Madness
March Madness is the term used to describe the NCAA national college basketball tournament because there are typically numerous upsets. It has now started...
Market Commentary
Wheat behaved like the soy complex today. Yesterday's big reversals off the highs brought some fund selling and other profit taking, keeping all three whea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rising domestic feed prices and GOI's ban on soymeal imports are expected to have a strong negative impact on India's poultry industry. Declining Indian Oi...
Risk in Russia; Fake Meat and Salt Water; Attribute Risk
One national security analyst said that success in the Crimean situation is not allowing Russia-U.S. relations to spin out of control, and yet it spiraled...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Oilseed Highlights
There have been reports that Chinese crushers are seeking to cancel or resell up to 30 cargoes of South American soybeans due to poor margins. Chinese Soy...
Market Commentary
The overnight session did not prepare markets for the volatile price action that was the feature of today. General Comments President Obama announced more...
The Risky World Soybean Market
U.S. soybean derivatives are essentially the only exchange-traded hedging vehicle available to the world soybean market. It works when circumstances allow...
Milk Production, Exports and Margin Insurance
Dairy producers are entering a new era with milk exports at about twice their traditional level and about 50 percent greater than recent highs. This trend...
Market Commentary
The Fed's latest take on the U.S. economy is still seeing positive growth, although the rate of growth has slowed somewhat due in part to the severe winter...
Trade Policy Football; Dispute China; Quotable
TPA approval will require the Democratic Party elites to stand up to organized labor and the protectionists, much the way Main Street Republicans have begu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 March 2014Market TrendsPrices continued to increase, especially corn and wheat, due to the RUB depreciation and the Crimean po...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CBOT futures may presently be rallying, but there is no demand for Brazilian soybeans from Chinese buyers. Soybeans: Brazilian Prices No Longer Inverted Th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's export capacity is not expected to be negatively impacted by the potential loss of ports in Crimea as they represent only a small percentage of t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Market Commentary
After sputtering about yesterday and again early in the overnight session, grain and soy futures markets bounced firmly higher today, but why is not exactl...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentine exporters are facing shipping delays because of a ship blockage on the Parana River and may soon also encounter a port workers' strike. Brazil Cr...
Ag Block; Fertilizer BS; Crimea
Mega-retailer Walmart announced that it will require suppliers of agricultural crops to reduce fertilizer use on 20 million acres by 2020. Ag is Stumbling...
Food Inflation 2014
The rate of inflation for food increased 0.4 percent in February 2014, which was four times the core rate and the highest monthly increase since September...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Buyers in the Levant, particularly Jordan and Syria, who source all of their corn from Ukraine are very concerned about a possible force majeure situation,...
Rationing Demand for U.S. Soybeans
While total available 2013/14 U.S. soybean supplies are about 225 million bushels greater than the 2012/13 total, all of the additional supplies are being...
Ukraine And Russian WTO Implementation
Based on Russia's actions in 2013, there is seemingly enough reason for the U.S. to impose dispute resolution processes with that country in the WTO.The cu...
Miscellaneous Monday
Brussels has been increasingly providing administrative flexibility to EU member states, including the current effort to make the planting of biotech crops...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea market is firm as offers are difficult to find and also nervous about possible cancellations (force majeure). Milling Wheat The Black Sea mar...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
China In-Country Analysis
According to China Customs, soybean stocks in major Chinese seaports reached 5.57 MMT as of 10 March, an increase of 10,000 MT from the previous month. Oil...
Market Commentary
Today's immediate trader response to the current Black Sea situation was that the short-term risk was now off, and some of Friday's long positions were liq...
Variable Daily Trading Limits to Arrive 1 May
We don’t know what all of this new math’s real impact will be on the markets.The CBOT Group continues to mess around with the futures markets. We’re never...
Interior Basis Levels Sick–the System is Plugged
Corn and soybean basis in the northern interior have plummeted to what might be all-time lows for several reasons.Demand for corn, wheat, soybeans, canola,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
House Ag Submits Views and Estimates to Budget Committee
The letter makes the case for protecting farm bill spending from any further cuts under the FY 2015 budget.Under the federal budget process, each of the co...
Market Commentary
Wheat continues to confound market analysts who are searching for a reason for its strong rally. General Comments Markets started the night session lower a...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The extreme prevailing weather conditions continue to damage crops, leading to a belief that climate change is here to stay and that the El Nino factor wil...
TTIP Strategy; Aiding Ukraine
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations are hung up on tariffs, but Europe's aspiration for geographical indicators is an ar...
Heifer Delivery on Cattle Contracts Coming
CME's research into the cattle trade discovered that while heifers are lighter, they are more uniform and higher yielding than steers and frequently have h...
Farm Bill Spending; Failed UN Employee
While FAPRI's Baseline Briefing Book predicts a spike in farm bill spending due to lower crop prices, its forecast could affect farm program signup. Farm B...
Hindsight and Foresight
If the factors we point to in hindsight are largely responsible for the recent upturn in grain and soy prices, what about foresight? What is likely to happ...
Oilseed Highlights
Conab reduced its estimate for Brazil's 2014 soybean crop, disappointing the government that had predicted the country would for the first time have a larg...
Market Commentary
Concern over the Ukrainian situation is given as the reason for today's U.S. stock market plunge. Grain and soy markets chopped around on both sides of yes...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Market Commentary
Today's grain and soy markets saw a tug of war develop between the strength of wheat and the weakness of soybeans with corn caught in the middle. General C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Total Argentine farmer selling of corn has now reached approximately 2.3 MMT, 10 percent of the expected crop. Although the harvest has been active this pa...
Slowing Trade Negotiations; Invasive
The impact of the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement means that TTIP and TPP will have to result in impressive trade policy improvements for the U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The volume of grain dispatched from Ukraine's sea ports has not been negatively affected by the Crimean crisis. Meanwhile, Russia's agriculture ministry in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Farm Bill Fatigue; Deceptions
One congressional assertion is that making agriculture a bigger tent will ensure that future farm bills go more smoothly. Farm Bill Cost No Issue The Congr...
Oilseed Highlights
As a result of the Argentine government's price controls on biodiesel, producers have decreased production and there is not enough available to supply the...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Ukraine's recent corn price increases have made the supply to North Africa much less competitive. It appears that importers of larger vessels will pr...
Market Commentary
Although there does not appear to be any disruption in Black Sea grain shipments or in early spring planting in Ukraine so far, the situation remains a maj...
Biodiesel Tax Credit: What Will Happen?
Biodiesel critics and advocates both noted that there was no proposal in the president's budget to extend the biodiesel blenders' credit. This has sparked...
Updated Outlook for U.S. Corn
The big rally in corn futures prices during the past two months does stand out and has analysts asking themselves if this marching bull corn market can be...
Market Commentary
The actual WASDE numbers were a bit more positive than the trade estimate average, but that didn't slow the across-the-board selling. General Comments Mark...
House Ag Appropriations Hearing
Overall, USDA is seeking a reduction in discretionary outlays of $2.638 billion from what it is projected to receive in FY 2014 under the continuing resolu...
March USDA WASDE Doesn’t Change Much
The trade was looking for a slight increase in the corn export forecast and that's what it got, while there might have been some disappointment that the co...
China In-Country Analysis
China has recently issued a series of policies to promote family farms that could also mean that the freedom to transfer and consolidate land will be estab...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Black Sea wheat market remains firm due to the region's political tension, and there are no offers in Ukraine. Milling Wheat The Black Sea wheat marke...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
A lower sugarcane output and the slow start to its processing because of price issues have been cited as the major reasons for the decline in India's sugar...
Market Commentary
Corn futures started to falter when Canada's government made comments about forcing its railroads to move more grain and oilseeds. That helped push the oat...
Technology Starts and Stops
U.S. aggies would say it is technology that will limit progress by U.S. and EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiators next week...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The last 15-20 percent of Brazil's soybean harvest is being hurt by too much rain and will result in quality and yield loss. More importantly, the frequent...
Oilseed Highlights
The general view now is that India's 2013 soybean crop was no greater than 9 MMT, and the country is likely to face a severe soymeal shortage in the domest...
Ag Review: Crop Planting Update
Planting on New Policy Transfer payments, technocrat speak for taxpayer money given to beneficiaries, amount to around 5 percent of farm income and can onl...
Changing Energy Markets
The shrinking U.S. demand for fuel obviously exacerbates the blend wall issue. However, the global demand for crude and petroleum fuel, up about 6.5 percen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Livestock Groups Rally Around Corn Ethanol RFS Repeal
A coalition of 11 livestock, poultry and dairy groups have called for committee hearings on the proposal by Representative Bob Goodlatte (R-Virginia) to re...
Market Commentary
While there could be some profit taking by traders with long positions going into the weekend, the prospect that USDA could further increase its U.S. corn...
Aggies on Trade; Zealots
Regulatory agencies have finally conceded, and USTR will now accept the concept of binding dispute settlement on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) issues in...
Trends, Trends, Trends
It is as important to know when a trend is about to run its course as it is to know when one is about to take off.Investors and speculators are forever see...
Ukraine; Greens; Obesity; Survey
Europe may not be ready to impose trade retaliation on Russia, but some members of the U.S. Congress are suggesting the use of WTO dispute settlement cases...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Overall, the Argentine wheat market is still depressed because of government policies. The only effective way to reactivate exports is to open the full quo...
Market Commentary
U.S. farmers continued to reward this week's price rally by selling significant quantities of corn, soybeans and wheat, and this has pressured cash basis b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
There have not been any interruptions in work at the grain terminals of Sevastopol in regards to sea exports, according to the Ukrainian Agrarian Confedera...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
A biotech conference in Ethiopia with African and European scientists last week has come out strongly in support of using agricultural biotechnology as a m...
Budget Outtakes and Meat
The staff at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) continues to watch their long ball knocked foul. Budget Outtakes Some observations on other pa...
Market Commentary
Financial markets heaved a big sigh of relief today when Russia pulled its troops away from the Ukrainian border, and stocks roared back to erase yesterday...
President’s Budget Cuts Crop Insurance
The cuts proposed to the crop insurance program were not incorporated into the farm bill, which makes it unlikely that Congress will act on them any time s...
Oilseed Highlights
If trade between Russia and Ukraine is disrupted by the current situation, the oilseed most impacted will be soybeans. Oil World Reduces South American Soy...
The Soybean Market and Changing Perceptions
The current soybean market is a far cry from what most analysts expected, and we have once again been reminded that it is wise to be wary when there is a n...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Market Commentary
The Black Sea problems brought short covering to the wheat markets and outright buying to corn and soybeans. There might also have been some support for wh...
Is the Market Betting On or Hedging Against EPA Expanding Its Ethanol Mandate?
Some are suggesting that the market is betting on an EPA reversal by bidding up the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices that have increased from a...
Bearish on Ukraine; Other Stuff
The situation in Ukraine is likely worse than many perceive at this time and with larger global impacts. Even North Korea realizes this is an opportunity f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The uncertainty regarding the wheat export program from Ukraine and Russia in the upcoming months is a serious incentive for traders and consumers to incre...
The Olympics End, the Putin Games Begin
Just the fact that many uncertainties now exist between Russia and Ukraine will likely push more corn and wheat export business elsewhere where there isn't...
China In-Country Analysis
China's newly issued regulations regarding feed and feed additive imports appear to be consistent with the government's decision to improve the nation's fo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Trouble, Excuses and More Trouble
Ukraine has become an important contributor to global food supplies in recent years, which raises the question of what happens if the political situation d...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI has made its intention very clear by announcing that it is committed to the use of biotech and other new technologies for agricultural development and...
Market Commentary
Soybeans, corn and wheat all closed on or near the day's highs. That is a bullish technical picture for the last day of the week and the month. General Com...
2014 Crop Revenue Protection Prices Better Than Expected
If prices are high, as they have been the past two years, this program has guaranteed great profits regardless of yields or prices going forward.February w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Budget Process to Follow Course of the Farm Bill?
Federal spending is still front and center, and it is also an election year. The best bet for this year is that there will not be a congressional budget...
TPA, Borlaug, Grass and Gluten
A study by Petr Havlik of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis concludes that the lower nutritional value of grass means that livestock...
Oilseed Highlights
After several months of very profitable crush margins, the Chinese soybean crushing industry has seen margins collapse to very unprofitable levels in the l...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Market Commentary
The extreme movement of soybean prices first boosted grain prices, but ultimately pulled grains to lower closes as well. However, the grains were not trade...
Fascinated by Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Cattle on Feed, Poultry Production Numbers
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Concerns have been mounting that Argentina could completely lose market share in wheat this season and may need to reduce prices by at least $20-30/MT in o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine has exported 23.9 MMT of grains since the beginning of MY 2013/14. This is a 36.7 percent increase compared with the same period in MY 2012/13. Rus...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Market Commentary
Soybeans closed higher again for the 13th time during February with the May contract hitting another high. Only corn remained locked in its usual narrow tr...
180; Intolerance; Who?; Stimulus
Somewhat late to a flawed game, the World Health Organization (WHO) is recommending taxes and regulatory restrictions to halt the course of obesity in mode...
TPP Threats; Getting Along; Manure
If adding labor to industry groups is a good idea, why not just throw all of the disparate interests onto the same committee and enjoy a literal three-ring...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
According to a comment from Iran, Ukraine may not be able to complete their outstanding corn business because of its dwindling supplies and domestic unrest...
Oilseed Highlights
The continued sale for export of so many of last year's soybeans increasingly suggests the 2013 U.S. soybean crop was larger than USDA is estimating. Big S...
Market Commentary
The CME March oats closed at an historic high of $5.03 today as U.S. oat supplies are being squeezed. Some of the big cereal makers reportedly have invento...
Federal Reserve Taper and Ag Trade
Lower commodity prices in the U.S. will help export market sales, but the catalyst will be the way monetary policy unfolds.In the last two policy meetings...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Commodities Beckon Again
It is interesting to see that investors and investment money managers have not totally forgotten about commodities.Historically, most conservative investor...
“Farmed and Dangerous” Series Hits the Internet
The fight over the image of agriculture, livestock and the food industry has been ongoing for quite some time, but the battlefield is changing. Social medi...
Wagging Chemo-Phobes
Activists are clogging up U.S. EPA's public comment site on the proposed deregulation of biotech crops that are resistant to 2,4-D. Tail Wagging the Dog U...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
It's difficult to assess the exact volume of Ukraine's remaining corn surplus as farmers logically prefer to keep grain instead of cash because of the coun...
Market Commentary
There were several comments floating around about U.S. farmers planting more corn acres than a year ago because last year's profits were so big. That won't...
China In-Country Analysis
China's government has issued guidelines calling for maintenance of the traditional diet as an increasing segment of the population is experiencing chronic...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
U.S. 2014 Weather Talk Already Starting
There has been talk about the impact of this winter and even some special spring and summer forecasts that are highlighting how the current U.S. weather si...
Own Petard; Pick your Poison
The condition of China's cotton stocks is unknown, but it appears there is some confidence that Beijing will not dump its excess on the world market. Own P...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is likely to produce 263.2 MMT of food grains in 2013/14. This is greater than the target of 259 MMT established by the agriculture ministry in Septe...
Budget Process Begins with a Leak
According to leaks from the administration, the president's spending blueprint will adhere to the Bipartisan Budget Act agreed to in December that set spen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Outlook Conference is Behind Us
One of the primary reasons we said the Outlook Conference numbers would be bearish is that USDA has a history of using a best case scenario from a yield st...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures have staged a significant rally since the February WASDE, which farmers have used to sell more wheat. The trouble across the northern Plains...
Fun Points from USDA Outlook
If crop insurance had to operate on actuarial soundness with premiums fully paid by farmers, its value would quickly decline over time. The belief continue...
What Is Wrong With Being Big?
Farming is like any other business that produces and sells goods and services. Its profitability depends on maximizing productivity, efficiency and economi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain and oilseed prices...
Market Commentary
The severe unrest in Ukraine has the world grain trade casting a wary eye on Black Sea loadings, interior Ukrainian logistics and possible spring planting...
Oilseed Highlights
At the rate canola plantings are expanding in Canada, there may not be many years before the country's canola area surpasses its total wheat area. USDA For...