GOOD MORNING, Funds were sellers yesterday, figuring the market has met some key upside objectives, but the markets are not giving back much this morning...
Articles
Market Commentary
The CBOT was broadly lower with corn, soybeans, and all three wheats trading into the red. The day had the feeling of a broad “risk off” day wi...
Transatlantic Firing Squad; Nutty Navarro Math; Tart Milk
Transatlantic Firing Squad The WTO approved 71 percent of the amount the U.S. requested as retaliation for Europe’s subsidization of Airbus air...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8775/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.89/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy President Xi’s Fleeting Rural Dreams With China’s National Day Holiday celebrations in full swing this week, questions have risen as to...
Erroneous Data
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN produces a lot of data that could be useful, if it were accurate. The problems in the data have been...
PM Post - Resilience
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 lower Dec soyoil: 18 higher Dec meal: 1.30 lower Dec corn: 2 1/2 lower Dec whea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 September 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices fluctuated insignificantly in ruble expression, except for corn prices which decl...
Technical Views - Slice and Dice
SPREADS Dec crush trades firmer to 79.59c/bu while oilshare trades to 32 percent, where it could see some support. Dec/March corn trades from 11 3/4c...
AM Outlook - All is Well
GOOD MORNING, The markets were given life and new direction courtesy of an unexpected bullish corn and bean stocks report this week. Fundamental jolt...
Utopian Agriculture Irony; Trouble in Major Markets
Utopian Agriculture Irony Debating the future of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be a major objective for the new politicians in Brussels and the...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets opened on a mixed tone following yesterday’s Grain Stocks report but most commodities finished higher. Soymeal and soybeans led the soy...
Politics, Government Reports and Biofuels
In the past week there has been a lot for the biofuels markets to digest and ponder, ranging from new numbers from EIA and USDA to the impact of the curren...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
Rationalizing the Corn Market
U.S. corn continues to be priced above the market and even now appears to be oversupplied. Domestic surplus corn stocks are 46 percent above what would be...
PM Post - Tighter Stocks
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 1.50 higher Dec soyoil: 12 higher Dec corn: 1 1/2 lower Dec...
Technical Views - Calls Mixed; Watch Ranges
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 78.37c/bu, while oilshare corrects down to 32.57 percent. Corn spreads narrowed on the rally with Dec/March trading...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Lebanese millers have again protested strongly against the “official” rate of the U.S. dollar in the country...
AM Outlook - The Digestion Phase
GOOD MORNING, The Quarterly Grain Stocks report is in the rear-view mirror, but it set in motion higher trade as bears have to decipher what smaller than e...
Market Commentary
The September Grain Stocks report did not fail to be exciting. The report featured plenty of ammo for corn and soybean bulls while wheat received positive...
Tyson Plant Fire Sparks Populism
One thing which certainly has been sparked by the fire at the Tyson meatpacking plant in Kansas is the age old producer versus packer tensions among more p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.88/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.9575/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Last week was yet another that featured changing news of the U.S.-China trade war. Rumors of a possible 6 MMT quota for U.S. soybeans...
PM Post - Season Lows in Place
THE OPEN Nov beans: 7 higher Dec meal; 2.70 higher Dec soyoil: 2 higher Dec corn: 1 higher Dec wheat: 1 1/2 lower Price...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News China is now Ukraine’s larges trading partner, notably expanding its agricultural product exports. Ukraine is the largest supplier of s...
Quick Hit - Reactions to USDA Reports
USDA QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT The reaction to the report was friendly for beans and corn, neutral for wheat. Buy-stops were triggered with price...
Price of Health
The FAO reported earlier this year that the Global Vegetable Oil price index is at its second lowest level in eleven years. The vegetable oil index has sun...
Technical Views - Evening Up
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 83.19/bu, which is 30c off the August highs. Oilshare trades down to 32.61 percent. Dec/March corn trades back into...
AM Outlook - Higher Across the Board
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board as we begin the trading week with the focus on USDA’s report at 11:00 CDST and crop progress tonight...
USDA Reports - Bullish Beans, Bearish Corn?
TRADE EXPECTATIONS AS RELEASED BY THE WALL STREET JOURNAL DJ September U.S. Wheat Production Estimates -- Survey The following are analysts' estimates for...
Impeachment’s Policy Implications; Prospects on Trade, Impeachment
Impeachment’s Policy Implications In September 2016, American University professor Allan Lichtman was one of just nine analysts to correctly predict...
Market Commentary
The excitement at the CBOT/CME today was in the livestock markets and wheat, with subdued action elsewhere. Buy grains/sell the soy complex was a major fea...
Hogs and Pigs Report Indicates Increased Slaughter Ahead
According to today’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report, the total swine inventory on 1 September was 77.7 million head, 103 percent of last year and of the 1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.715/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8725/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
Decline in Lawmaking
Yesterday’s discussion about impeachment raised the question about its impact on the ability of Congress to simultaneously accomplish other legislati...
PM Post - Mostly Lower Awaiting Quarterly Stocks
THE OPEN: Nov beans: 2 1/2 lower Dec meal: .50 lower Dec soyoil: 20 lower Dec corn: 2 lower Dec wheat: 3 1/4 higher The markets opened as called, which w...
Technical Views - Some Tests, Some Sideways
SPREADS Dec crush falls to 82c/bu, one of the lowest levels noted for the year. Oilshare trends firmer trading to 32.98 percent. Spreads are st...
AM Outlook - Only Wheat in Green
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with wheat the only item in green after most of the markets started off on firmer footing. Minneapolis wh...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.725/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Impeachment Impacts; WPI and Impeachment; U.S. – India Negotiations
Impeachment Impacts President Trump has tried to characterize his House Democratic antagonists as ignoring the needs of the American people by instead focu...
Market Commentary
It was a relatively tempered day in the proverbial trading pits with things not going quite as expected. • While the export sales report this mo...
Rocky Times Ahead
The present Congress has not accomplished very much in the nine months it has been seated in no small part because its members have been spending so much t...
Livestock Roundup
Hogs and Pigs Preview USDA will release its quarterly hogs and pigs report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total swine inventory a...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Yield, Argentine Soy Crushers, Soy Export Sales, Indian Soy
The Case for an Average U.S. Soybean Yield Below USDA’s Forecast USDA’s most recent forecast for the average U.S. soybean yield in 2019 is 47.9...
PM Post - Predictable
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 higher Dec meal: 1.20 higher Dec soyoil: 3 higher Dec corn: 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 7 1/2 hi...
Technical Views - Sell Corn, Buy Beans
SPREADS Dec oilshare trades to 87.59c/bu while oilshare trends down to 32.77 percent. Corn spreads widen today with Dec/March trading back out...
AM Outlook - Bullish But Minn Overbought
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board today with more positive vibes as regards trade negotiations. Funds are short and markets rema...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 283,200 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 1 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn:&...
Market Commentary
Trade news was floating through the air like snowflakes in December with President Trump noting that a trade deal with China could happen “sooner tha...
Transatlantic Food Fight; Un-nice to Rice
Transatlantic Food Fight U.S. producers are gearing up for what they foresee as a tightening regulatory blockade of their products going to Europe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7425/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7725/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 September 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices fluctuated insignificantly in ruble expression, except for milling rye prices tha...
Ag Review - September 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the outlook for the 2019/20 U.S. crop mar...
PM Post - Minneapolis Wheat Up and Away
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 3/4 lower Dec meal: 1.50 lower Dec soyoil: 17 lower Dec corn: 1/4 lowe...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Rises on Higher Demand, Increased Output Soymeal demand improved and output increased last week as hog producers worked feverish...
Russia’s Soybean Limits
There was much publicity several weeks ago about Russia being a beneficiary of the U.S. – China trade war due to stronger soybean sales. The two agre...
Technical Views - Sideways for Some
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 98.93c/bu while oilshare firms back to 32.97 percent. Dec/March corn trades into 10 3/4c from 11 1/4c while Dec 19/...
AM Outlook - Positioning Ahead of Reports
GOOD MORNING, Fund position leveling is now taking place into the June 30 Quarterly Grains Stocks report as they remain short everything except soyoil.&nbs...
Market Commentary
The markets started the day mixed with soybeans higher on rumors of Chinese purchases, corn and soyoil lower, and wheat futures moving higher. Minneapolis...
Biofuels Deal Unravelling
The more time that goes by the task of finding a policy “fix” for the current ethanol demand becomes more difficult. Indeed, there is a basic d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Impeachment’s Implications; Zimbabwe’s Crisis
Impeachment’s Implications U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) says that her Party now has “the facts” to initiate impeachment...
PM Post - Short Covering
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 3/4 higher Dec soyoil: 10 lower Dec meal: 2.20 higher Dec corn: 2 1/4 l...
Argentina Election Impacts
The general election will be held in Argentina next month (27 October) with the two leading candidates for president being the incumbent, Mauricio Macri, a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS As had been expected, Morocco is dropping its soft wheat import duty from 135 percent to 35 percent effective 1 October...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS Dec/March corn spread trades firm into 11c from 11 1/4c, while Dec 19/Dec 20 trades from 30 1/4c to 31 1/2c. Nov/Jan bean spread trades from...
AM Outlook - Bullish Soy
GOOD MORNING, Prices begin mixed today with corn lower as ratings unexpectedly improved in yesterday’s crop progress report. Reports of bean bi...
Market Commentary
The markets found early, overnight strength after initial corn harvest results from parts of Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa showed areas where yields were 40...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.83/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The market was slow in Brazil last week with some action at the beginning on the week when China secured 5-6 vessels for Oct...
1 + 1 = 3
This past Friday (20 September), we followed the interpretation of most by adding: 1) The cancellation of U.S. farm visits by Chinese officials, plus...
Global Beef Growth Slows
Dave Juday noted in his report this morning that USDA’s Cattle on Feed report showed a smaller number than for the same month a year ago, something t...
PM Post - Higher Where Short, Lower Where Not
THE OPEN Nov beans: 14 higher Dec meal: 4.20 higher Dec soyoil: 17 higher Dec corn: 3 higher Dec wheat: 1...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News The weather over Eastern Europe and the Black Sea continues to be warm but with favorable rains. Western Europe will remain dry, however, Ukr...
Technical Views - Not Bearish
SPREADS Dec crush falls to 85c/bu while oilshare corrects back towards 33 percent with a morning trade at 33.14 percent. Sep/Dec corn trades a...
AM Outlook - Higher on China Picture
GOOD MORNING, The markets begin higher across the board this morning on the news that cancellation of US farm visits did not correlate with the stoppage of...
Feedlot Inventory and Placements Down
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report Friday afternoon. For the first time in 33 months, the total inventory of cattle in feedlots of...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary
Action at the CBOT was mixed with crop futures mostly lower overnight (with wheat the lone exception) and lackluster during the morning’s trading ses...
How Many Electoral Votes per Gallon of Biofuels?
Reportedly, the “giant package” of RFS and biofuel actions that was originally expected to be released this week is back on the proverbial draw...
No China ASF Visit; Where Not What; KORUS Environmental Consultations
No China ASF Visit Wall Street and Chicago headed lower after President Trump signaled that trade negotiations with China were not proceeding as hoped. He...
PM Post - Congested and Low Volume
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 1/2 lower Dec meal: .40 lower Dec soyoil: 23 lower Dec corn: 1 3/4 lower Dec wheat: steady Price...
Technical Views - Higher Markets Require Volume
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 87c/bu while oilshare falls to 33.40 percent. Bean spreads widen out to 13 1/2c from 12 3/4c for Nov/Jan while Jan/...
F&V Future
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, only one in 10 American adults meets the dietary guidelines for fruit and vegetable consumption. Meanwhi...
AM Outlook - Slow, Methodically Upwards
GOOD MORNING, Good export sales, better chart price action, and short-covering led to firmer markets yesterday. The price action has been a slow, met...
Cattle on Feed
USDA Reported U.S. Cattle on Feed on September 1, 2019 was down 1 percent from September 1, 2018 Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.88 mi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7275/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Dryness, Soy Export Sales, NOPA Crush, Biodiesel Blend Mandate
Dry Weather Expected to Delay Brazil Soy Plantings A year ago, an early start to the rainy season in Brazil allowed earlier than normal plantings of soybea...
Hope for Trade War Deal
The messaging has been all to assuaging with White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow and the President himself saying things are going very well. Both eq...
The Wait and See Game
After their brief reaction to last week’s September WASDE, grain and soy futures markets seem to once again be mired in their old trading ranges. The...
Market Commentary
Today, there is something for everyone – both the bulls and the bears get fed. Generally, the market is weaker on weather and supply, but these...
PM Post - Money not Fundamentals Cause Movement
THE OPEN Nov beans: 1 higher Dec meal: 1.00 higher Dec soyoil: 12 lower Dec corn: 1 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 2 higher The...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 286,600 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 53 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS Dec crush at 91.46c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.45 percent, correcting lower today. Dec/March corn narrows into 11c from 11 1/4c, and valu...
AM Outlook - Sideways
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue their sideways trading range as we get closer to the end of the month and the Sep 30 stocks report along with the October WAS...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower overnight in continuation of yesterday’s selling, but the market turned around during the day session. Wheat futures found...
Not Substantially All; Next NTB’s; FDI in Agriculture
Not Substantially All Trade experts this week noted that the U.S.– Japan trade agreement might violate the WTO’s Article XXIV requirement that...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China at Lowest Total Since 2011 Through July, data from USDA’s Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) show a...
Grocery Stores are Winning
The consumer is often said to be the backbone of the U.S. economy, and that looks to be a positive factor for the food and agricultural sectors. The U.S. C...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market Overview, 13-9 September 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices fluctuated insignificantly in ruble expression (except for corn prices tha...
PM Post - Can't Buy Stronger Markets
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 lower Dec meal: 1.90 lower Dec soyoil: 6 lower Dec corn: 2 1/4 lower Dec wheat:&nbs...
Technical Views - Wheat to Gain on Corn
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 91.98c/bu while oilshare is 33.44 percent. Corn spreads are firmer with Dec/March trading into 11 3/4c from values that w...
AM Outlook - Trying to Define Ranges
GOOD MORNING, The markets are trading back and forth attempting to define ranges into the October report. Funds maintain a net short position a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.68/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8425/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
ASF Cuts China’s Swine Demand for Corn
The Chinese government announced last year a 10-percent ethanol blend mandate effective in 2020. The move brought encouragement to corn and ethanol makers...
Market Commentary
It was certainly Turnaround Tuesday at the CBOT with grains heading lower and cattle seemingly the only market to find support. Funds were active sellers a...
Precedent on Preemption; Airplane Way; Cost of “Meat”
Precedent on Preemption California already has stricter automobile emission standards and during the Obama Administration it received approval to impose ev...
Stop Gap Funding Moving Ahead without Block on Trade Aid
There are seven legislative days left before the fiscal year ends on 30 September, and on at least one of those days (23 September) the session is not sche...
PM post - Bend but do not Break
THE OPEN Nov beans: 8 lower Dec meal: 2.60 lower Dec soyoil: 9 lower Dec corn: 4 lower Dec wheat: 4 lower The markets were hi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia and the UAE have announced that they will provide more wheat to Sudan – a total of 540,000 MT of whea...
Technical Views - Challenging Support Equals Weakness
SPREADS Dec crush trades at 90.81c/bu while oilshare hits a high of 33.60 percent. Spreads are slightly weaker with Dec/March corn trading into 12c f...
AM Outlook - Bearish
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board to begin the trading session. Crop conditions were slightly better than expected and weather remains...
Market Commentary
The CBOT found plenty of support today from the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia that sent crude oil futures sharply higher. Between the support building lat...
Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?
Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the...
POTUS State Owned Enterprises; U.S.- Brazil Lite
POTUS State Owned Enterprises A key complaint by the U.S. is that China competes unfairly as a non-market economy, the latest being an order from Beijing t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.74/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Last week was special as China suddenly allowed an unspecified volume of U.S. soybeans to be imported without their recent tariffs. The quot...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Last week initially saw hot temperatures across Southeast Europe before a slight cooling pattern set in. The early-week heat, combined with t...
PM Post - Soyoil Strong into the Close
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To cont...
China Opens to U.S. Pork
China’s announcement last week that it would not add punitive tariffs on imports of pork from the U.S. was largely a necessary self-restraint. With n...
Technical Views - Upside is Incomplete
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end TOMORROW, Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To cont...
AM Outlook - Sustained Rally Requires Funds Exiting Shorts
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end TOMORROW, Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To cont...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.835/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary
Except for the hog market, the CBOT/CME was quiet for the first day of post-WASDE/post-Chinese purchases trading. Volumes were light as it looks like most...
Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?
The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exem...
Dems on Trade Policy; Top Dems and Trade Agreement Optimism
Dems on Trade Policy Donald Trump has upended trade policy like no other U.S. president. His approach is contrary to Republican orthodoxy and rhetorically...
Brazil Needs Moisture
The dryness in Brazil’s soybean production areas is worth watching because there is a history to the situation. There are not the La Niña cond...
PM Post - Chart Signals are not Usually Wrong
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 higher Dec meal: 1.20 higher Dec soyoil: 7 higher Dec corn: 4 higher Dec wheat:&nbs...
Technical Views - Testing the Market
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To continue ac...
AM Outlook - Removing Shorts
GOOD MORNING, Seasonal lows are sometimes set after the September or October reports, and it's always about fund flows and market reaction to the data.&nbs...
Plenty of Grain and Oilseeds
The U.S. corn and soybean yields reported in today’s September WASDE were the first to use corn ear counts and weights plus soybean pod counts and we...
Livestock Roundup
USDA released is September WASDE today. Broiler production is expected to increase, based on higher slaughter and heavier weights. Beef, pork and turkey ar...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA soyoil estimates: The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA soymeal estimates: The soybean meal price is projected at $305 per short ton, up $5.00. ...
War Mitigation Funds Threatened; Big Oil vs. Big Ag; Bye WOTUS
War Mitigation Funds Threatened The Trump Administration has used up its $30 billion in CCC slush funds compensating farmers for the trade war and now Cong...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA soybean estimates: Soybean production is projected at 3.6 billion bushels, down 47 million on a lower yield forecast of 47.9 bushels per acre. With so...
Market Commentary
The much-anticipated USDA WASDE report contained a lot of red (see table below) but all the major agricultural commodity contracts nonetheless managed to e...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6725/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.8375/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&nb...
WASDE Corn
USDA corn estimates: U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production in 2019/20, but slightly higher ending stocks because of lower corn used for ethanol. Corn...
Oilseed Highlights: China Buys U.S. Soybeans, Argentine Soymeal to China, Soy Export Sales, WASDE
Chinese Crushers Reportedly Buying U.S. Soybeans Trade sources indicated Chinese companies today purchased at least 600,000 MT of U.S. soybeans for shipmen...
WASDE Wheat
USDA wheat estimates: 2019/20 U.S. wheat supply and demand is unchanged. The season-average farm price down 20 cents to $4.80 per bushel the marketing year...
PM Post - Heading Out with Good Prices
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To continue ac...
Technical Views - Export Sales Drive Higher Open
SPREADS Oct. crush trades up to 1.07c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 32.89 percent. Spreads are a bit firmer with Dec/March corn trading in...
AM Outlook - Sideways to Lower
GOOD MORNING, Report day today, to be released at 11:00 central time. Expectations include reduced corn and bean yields, reduced production, reduced...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.775/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomic Cost of Food Surges Courtesy of a 46.7 percent rise in retail pork prices, China’s food inflation jumped by 10 percent in August on an...
China Big Picture
White House advisor Peter Navarro is discounting the optimism surrounding U.S. and China trade negotiations, arguing there are too many large issues at sta...
Market Commentary
The CBOT turned lower this morning after China confirmed that it would not roll back tariffs on soybeans like it said it will for other products. That news...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market Overview, 2-6 September 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices followed the same pattern as one week before. Milling wheat export prices d...
PM Post - Bulls Need Reversal Confirmation
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To contin...
Technical Views - Forging New Trading Ranges
SPREADS Oct. crush is lower at 98c/bu while oilshare trends down to 32.56%. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn trades from 41 1/2c to 40 1/2c. Dec/March corn narrows into...
AM Outlook - Trade War Triggers Buying
GOOD MORNING, Quiet markets are subject to quick bounces and breaks. Yesterday, what was a quiet atmosphere suddenly turned higher as trade war news headli...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s 3 percent decrease in corn conditions ratings spooked corn bears and prompted a notable round of short-covering at the CBOT, both in the...
Aggressive New EU Leadership; USMCA Labor Solution; Indian Ally
Aggressive New EU Leadership Under John Claude Juncker, the EU seemed confused on how to deal with Donald Trump, never having previously experienced such a...
Appropriations, USMCA and More on Congressional To Do List
Congress is back in session after the August recess. The two major issues that will dominate the legislative calendar are the appropriations process and th...
PM Post - Not Insignificant
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 1/4 higher Dec meal: 1.50 higher Dec soyoil: 7 higher Dec corn: 5 1/4 higher Dec wheat:&n...
Quick Hit.....something interesting
USDA is scheduled to release its September WASDE report this Thursday at 11:00 Central time. Funds will enter this report net short across the board,...
ASF Worse Case Scenario
The FAO is scheduled to issue an African Swine Fever (ASF) update on Thursday, 12 September and it is now likely to include the Philippines in the growing...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The latest FAO report on Syria forecasts an increase in the 2019 wheat crop by more than 80 percent to...
Technical Views - Firm on Export Sales
SPREADS Crush remains firm with Oct. trading up to 1.07c/bu and oilshare correcting lower again to 32.70 percent. Dec wheat/corn moved above the Augu...
AM Outlook - Short-Covering
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly higher this morning after the release of crop progress reports showed corn conditions off 3 percent vs. expectations for un...
Market Commentary
The markets opened in-line with expectations and moved to early losses. Corn and soybeans remained under pressure from pre-WASDE positioning and good Midwe...
USMCA Push; Progressively Backwards
USMCA Push U.S. Congressional consideration of the USMCA agreement will get a heavy push from its supporters over the next few weeks. The earlier goal was...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.5425/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.745/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Pork Export Rebound Just in Time
The pent-up global pork demand is finally starting to take effect, and it would appear just in time for U.S. producers. July pork exports from the U...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans There was significant movement last week in the soybean market with China actively buying beans for spot delivery as well as securing new crop sup...
Gauging September WASDE’s Accuracy
The trade will be watching this Thursday’s release of USDA’s September WASDE report and how it differs from the August estimates. With so much...
PM Post - Technically Driven
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To continue ac...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to solidify itself as a rising supplier of agricultural products to China. News broke last week that China’s General A...
Technical Views - Sideways to Lower
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To continue ac...
AM Outlook - Look Out Below
Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To continue ac...
White House Trouble with RFS Math
On 30 August, WPI reported on the President’s plan for a “giant package” of biofuel initiatives that would make farmers “so happy&r...
Trade War’s Damage, or Not
The trade war has sparked curiosity about whether it will do long-term damage to the U.S. soybean industry. The answer is a bit complicated. Theoretically...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower today with favorable weather across the Midwest aiding corn and soybean crops in maximizing this year’s potential yields. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.555/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.6375/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&...
Impetus for Amazon Fires
During the recent dry season, there was a 77 percent year-to-year increase in fires in Brazil, typically started for land clearing and eventual natural res...
PM Post - As Called
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/4 higher Dec meal: .80 higher Dec soyoil: 9 higher Dec corn: 1/4 higher Dec wheat: 4 1/2 lower The ma...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 312,100 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 53 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...
Technical Views - Sidewazzzz
SPREADS Nov crush trades down to 1.04c/bu while oilshare trades down to 32.75 percent. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn trades out to 40 1/4c from 39 3/4c. D...
AM Outlook - Bearish
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning. Trade talks had little impact on ag commodities yesterday, reserving all the higher momentum for the equ...
Trump’s Successes; Glyphosate Opposites
Trump’s Successes President Trump gets blamed for much, including for burning down the Amazon by one red-faced environmentalist. His approach can be...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight, but they couldn’t hold today except for wheat. Wheat has spent the past two days digging out of the hole it fell into...
Oilseed Highlights: China and India Soybeans, Soy Export Prices, Brazil Soybeans, U.S Soy Crop
U.S. Ag Office Lowers Forecast for China’s Soybean Imports The USDA/FAS office in Beijing this week forecasted China’s soybean imports in 2018/...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.5875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.6625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - No Bottom Yet
THE OPEN Nov beans: 1 1/2 higher Dec meal: .40 higher Dec soyoil: 3 lower Dec corn: 2 1/2 higher Dec wheat: ...
Structural Changes
Our introduction to international grain trade came in the late 1950’s and 1960’s. At that time most U.S. grain exports were under U.S. aid prog...
Livestock Round Up
Hurricane Dorian and Pigs After hammering the Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian is headed to the Carolinas, threatening the hog and broiler producers in its path...
Technical Views - Beans/Oil Sideways
SPREADS Oct. crush is higher today, trading up to 1.03c/bu while oilshare is lower at 32.81 percent. Corn spreads are firmer with Dec/March trading i...
AM Outlook - Possible Dec Corn Bear Trap
GOOD MORNING, The markets are mixed this morning but mostly higher led by wheat. Wheat started its turn yesterday triggering buy-stops and reve...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.585/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.6075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary
Corn fell to a new contract low amid fund selling and bear corn/wheat spreading. The soy complex managed to find modest support with higher closes in soybe...
Food Production and Marketing; Guessing Trumps War Direction
Food Production and Marketing Producing food without modern plant protection technologies is difficult and expensive. Just ask EU farmers trying to grow ra...
Meat Substitute Market
India is home to several market research companies and being in a predominantly Hindu country they should know something about alternative proteins in a ve...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Pork Shortage Threatens to Hurt Enthusiasm For 70th Anniversary Fears of a pork shortage are looming as China continues its game of tit-for-tat w...
PM Post - Choppy
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 higher Dec meal: 1.10 higher Dec soyoil: 12 lower Dec corn: 1/4 lower Dec wheat: ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 August 2019 Domestic 3rd grade milling wheat prices in the European Part of Russia grew in ruble expression and decreased in d...
Technical Views - Firmer with Short Covering
SPREADS November crush falls to 87c/bu while oilshare trades to 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 13c to 13 1/3c while Dec 19/Dec 20 trades out...
AM Outlook - Firmer
GOOD MORNING, Pressure from weaker grain trade dominated price action yesterday. Good weather, adequate rainfall patterns, and most of all, seasonal...
War’s Worsening Prognosis
President Trump says his trade war on China is “having a devastating effect” on the Middle Kingdom and “they have to make a deal,”...
Breaking Down Farm Income for 2019
Farm income is projected to increase in 2019, which would be the third year in a row of growing farm income, but the reason for the most recent two years&r...
Market Commentary
Good weekend weather, lower FOB values for wheat world-wide, and fund selling pressured the CBOT today. Corn and wheat futures posted new contract lows wit...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.61/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.535/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Ending Import Dependence
Many are asking the net long-term impacts of China’s near embargo on purchases of soybeans from the U.S. The historical picture is very clear. The U...
PM Post - Nailed it
THE OPEN November beans: 6 lower December meal: .20 lower December soyoil: 32 lower December corn: 3 3/4 lower December wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS After last week’s wheat tender Egypt’s GASC has booked 2.13 MMT of wheat this buying year – 935,000 MT...
Technical Views - Testing Lower
SPREADS October crush trades up to 1.01c/bu while oilshare is steady at 32.68 percent. Corn spreads are weaker with Dec 19/Dec 20 trading out to 35c...
AM Outlook - Lower
GOOD MORNING, It's a new month but the market is under pressure again as the weather remains mostly benign with the lack of any freeze event, and just enou...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6975/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.625/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary
Reminder: the CBOT and CME markets will be closed Sunday night, 1 September and during the day on Monday, 2 September in observance of the U.S. Labor Day h...
U.S. Futures Exchanges Closed Monday, 2 September 2019
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 2 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. As a result, we will not upda...
Biofuel Comments Due Today, RFS Adding to Uncertainty
Today is the deadline for filing comments with EPA on the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for the 2020 RFS, and it comes as the Administration i...
US-PRC – What to Believe?; China/EU Burn Down the Amazon; Big Food’s Mojo
US-PRC - What to Believe? The negotiations are going great again. All is well. Be calm markets. Are the two sides, China and the U.S. on track together? Is...
PM Post - Fundamentals and Technicals Align
THE OPEN November beans: 4 higher December meal: .10 lower December soyoil: 2 higher December corn: 1 1/2 higher December whe...
Technical Views - Mostly Higher
SPREADS October crush is lower trading back to 1.00c/bu while oilshare firms to 32.43 percent, bouncing off the 32 percent level. Sep/Dec corn trades...
AM Outlook - Liquidation
GOOD MORNING, It is the end of the month, first notice day, and part of a 3-day weekend, always good for contract liquidation. The COT report tonight...
Market Commentary
Following on Wednesday’s market, futures were mixed over night with beans and corn up but wheat continuing its downward trend. A mixed close was expe...
U.S.-Chinese Trade Dilemma
We are about to enter the 15th month of the tariff war between the U.S. and China, and to put it bluntly, a resolution seems further off today than it did...
Livestock Round Up
Stirring Through the Ashes after the Tyson Fire Tomorrow will mark three weeks since the major fire that shutdown the Tyson beef packing plant in Garden Ci...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Fires and Soybeans, U.S. Soy Exports
Brazilian Fires Placing Focus on Soybeans The practice of burning forestland during the dry season in Brazil has been going on for many years. Fire has bee...
PM Post - Pivotal Trade
THE OPEN November beans: 3 1/4 higher December meal: .70 higher December soyoil: 18 lower December corn: 2 3/4 higher December wheat: 1 1/2 lo...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 661,700 metric tons for 2019/2020--a marketing year high--were up 11 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior...
Letter Grade B; Wrong Tax Goal; Vote Now for President
Letter Grade B Donald Trump claims to be the world’s greatest negotiator but he only gets a B grade for his trade deal with Japan. Under pressure to...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS October crush trades slightly lower at 1.05c/bu while oilshare corrects lower again down to 32 percent. Buy meal/sell soyoil appears to be th...
AM Outlook - Cooler Outlook
GOOD MORNING, The markets closed higher yesterday with beans and corn establishing outside days marking a technical reversal off the lows with upside follo...
Short-Term Advantage: China
President Trump says that the Chinese asked to resume negotiations, but nothing is publicly scheduled, and the Chinese foreign ministry says it knows nothi...
Market Commentary
The CBOT rallied today on hints that the Trump administration may be planning policy action to boost biofuels demand. There was no time frame given in U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.71/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy A TRUE PRISONER’S DILEMMA At last weekend’s G7 summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump’s public ruminating on the progre...
Drought Shifting Consumption
Southeast Asia has experienced droughty conditions the past several months and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia/Pacific regio...
PM Post - Best Reversal Signal in Weeks
THE OPEN November beans: 3/4 higher December meal: .70 lower December soyoil: 1 higher December corn: 1 lower December wheat: ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 August 2019 Domestic wheat prices in the European Part of Russia mainly increased, at different rates in different regions, wh...
Technical Views - Calls are Mixed
SPREADS October crush trades to 1.09c/bu while oilshare leaks lower to 32.36 percent. Dec 2019/Dec 2020 corn congests from 36 1/2c to 37c. Dec/...
AM Outlook - Favorite Spread
GOOD MORNING, As we head into Labor Day, funds continue to build their net short positions in corn while maintaining an overall larger short in beans and m...
Revolutionizing Agriculture
EU agricultural policy has focused on assisting farmers in extracting higher prices for food, based on quality built over centuries, with branding both on...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was broadly lower in quiet trading today with little fresh news to spark much activity. The markets are continuing to digest the U.S.-Japan trade...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6625/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7675/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Ethanol: Wait Until Next Year
It has been a tough year for the ethanol industry. Volatile corn markets, EPA’s delay until the last minute on granting a year-round waiver for...
China’s Future Feed Demand
China’s consumption of animal protein is changing fast due to the impact of ASF on its swine herd. While some estimates are that up to a half of the...
PM Post - More Corn!
THE OPEN Nov beans: 8 1/2 lower Dec meal: 2.30 lower Dec soyoil: 26 lower Dec corn: 1 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 2 lower The markets open...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt may face serious problems as climate change is raising the water level of the Mediterranean and a...
Technical Views - Least Resistance
SPREADS October crush trades at 1.08c/bu while oilshare is steady at 32.57 percent. September contract liquidation continues as we approach fir...
AM Outlook - No Freeze
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower on net fund short positions, non-threatening weather, and improved crop progress report. Funds seem to be building a n...
Market Commentary
It was all about trade today at the CBOT. The weekend news of a U.S.-Japan trade deal was quickly and eagerly digested by the hog and cattle markets while...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview There was significant movement in Brazil’s market last week, both on spot positions as well as new crop position...
One Year Balancing Act; Saving the Rainforest; Squeezing the Brits
One Year Balancing Act Favorable numbers for Wall Street and the unemployment rate are two metrics Donald Trump needs to win reelection. Employment has not...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6825/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Japan Deal Unveiled, Promised as a Big Deal for U.S. Corn
The announcement of a U.S.- Japan trade agreement over the weekend at the G7 couldn’t have come at a better time for the markets and for President Tr...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News With summer drawing to an end for the Northern Hemisphere, the wheat crops are largely made and the corn and oilseed crops are in their final...
Commodity Sales Commitments
President Trump makes every free market economist cringe when he boasts about getting agreement from other national leaders to purchase more American produ...
PM Post - Higher Before Progress Report
THE OPEN November beans: 9 higher December meal: 1.20 higher December soyoil: 14 higher December corn: 2 1/4 higher Sep...
Technical Views - Possibilities
SPREADS October crush trades at 1.08c/bu while oilshare is a firmer trading to 32.79 percent. Bean spreads remain wide with Nov/Jan trading out to 14...
AM Outlook - Digesting Dynamics
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to digest current USDA numbers, ProFarmer numbers, and trade war tensions that were ratcheted higher last week sending m...
Bullish COF Report
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report this afternoon, which was bullish as expected. The total inventory in feedlots with capacity of 1,000...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies...
Cattle on Feed
• USDA reports that August 1 U.S. Cattle on Feed inventory is slightly above year ago; This is the highest August 1 inventory since the series b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6775/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7775/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Psychological Warfare; Rabid at the G7
Psychological Warfare In addition to farmers, China knows that Donald Trump’s other weak spot is the American economy and, more specifically, the sto...
Tweets Lack Impact
The Wall Street Journal analyzed how the S&P 500 reacted on the days President Trump tweeted more optimistically about trade policy; the argument being...
PM Post - All About China
THE OPEN November beans: 5 1/4 lower December meal: 1.00 lower December soyoil: 21 lower December corn: 4 lower Decemb...
Technical Views - Testing New Lows
SPREADS Oct. crush trades at 1.09c/bu while oilshare trends down to 32.58 percent. Meal steady against falling soyoil today. The Dec 2019/20 co...
AM Outlook - Somewhere Lower
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to consolidate within recent trading ranges with grains still not far from their recent highs. The soy complex bounced...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview; Broiler and Other Protein Expansion
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of...
The Big Crop Production Debate
These are the kind of times that show why grain farming is such a risky business. After several years of grain and soy prices being pressured by very big c...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Crop Tour; Too Much Rain in India; China's Soyoil; Canadian Oilseeds
U.S. Soy Export sales Highlights Today USDA released the weekly export sales report for the week ending 15 August. It indicated net sales of soybeans total...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.71/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7175/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Few Ethanol Options; Tsk-Tsk, Tusk; Look Out ERS
Few Ethanol Options Reuters reports that President Trump met today with USDA Secretary Sonny Purdue and EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler to receive options...
PM Post - Distorted Soybean Market
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 1/4 higher Dec meal: 1.70 higher Dec soyoil: 16 higher Dec corn: 2 1/4 higher Dec w...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 594,600 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 29 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. &n...
Technical Views - Opportunities
SPREADS October crush trades firmer to 1.10c/bu while oilshare trades firmer at 32.72%. Corn spreads are firmer with Dec/March trading into 11 3/4c f...
AM Outlook - Similar Day
GOOD MORNING, The trading picture today looks similar to yesterday as grains struggle to stay afloat vs. a firmer soy complex trade. Wheat continues...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values...
Tax on U.S. Consumers; Subsidizing China
Tax on U.S. Consumers Under the threat of even larger antidumping duties, Mexico agreed to the demand from Washington that its tomato shipments northward b...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 August 2019 Domestic prices in the European part of Russia mainly increased, partially because of the limited offer that resul...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7025/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.68/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Waiting for Oilseeds to Lead
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 1/2 higher Dec meal: .90 higher Dec soyoil: 33 higher Dec corn: 3/4 higher Dec wheat: 4 lower Prices op...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Surges to Nearly RMB 21/kg China’s average live pig price set a new all-time high of RMB 20.92/kg ($2.98/kg) or RMB 9.49/lb...
Technical Views - Many
SPREADS October crush is 1.09c/bu while oilshare is slightly lower at 32.63 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 12 1/2c to 12 3/4c while Dec 19...
AM Outlook - Mixed
GOOD MORNING, Funds were net sellers in grains yesterday which probably makes them even in corn to slightly short in wheat. Outright fund positions i...
Trade, Ethanol, and Politics
In gearing up for agriculture and ag policy, the 2020 election cycle is being looked at through the prism of politics. Typically, the farm vote is reliably...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.665/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&n...
Russia Rapprochement; Populism is Universal
Russia Rapprochement French President Emmanuel Macron met with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, and both agreed that changes in Ukraine have imp...
Ethanol’s Uphill Fight
U.S. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler is accustomed to attacks from environmentalists, but attacks by farmers over the agency’s small refinery exempt...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS This past week has been the Eid Al Adha period in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region. Banks and...
PM Post - How Low Can it Go?
THE OPEN November beans: 5 3/4 higher December meal: 1.50 higher December soyoil: 25 higher December wheat: 1 higher December...
AM Outlook - Really Pro the Farmer
GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer this morning after the release of crop ratings and the first results of the Pro Farmer crop tour. Despite recent rain...
Technical Views - Read Carefully
SPREADS October crush trades at 1.09c/bu while oilshare is slightly weaker at 2.78 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 12 1/4c to 12 1/2c, while Dec...
Confusion over Grain Glitch Tax Provision Continues
The comment period for the implementing rule on one of the biggest, most controversial and complex ag provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) c...
Market Commentary
Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2”...
State-Directed Capitalism; De Minimis Duty Implications; Research versus Development
State-Directed Capitalism Most governments around the world use policy to spur specific business winners in their economies. Canada will provide near...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.745/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Domestic Situation As has been widely reported, Argentine President Mauricio Macri lost last week’s primary election against the Al...
Pro Farmer Tour in Perspective
The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour kicks off this week, and already there are reports of the analysts finding problems in the fields with immaturity, of cour...
PM Post - Funds Reluctant to Return Long
THE OPEN November beans: 8 3/4 lower December meal: 2.90 lower December soyoil: 15 lower December corn: 6 1/4 lower December...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Black Sea wheat is getting pushed out of Southeast Asian markets due to rising freight costs. As freight rates increase ahead of the emission...
Technical Views - Can Imagine Lower Beans
SPREADS November crush trades at 96c/bu while oilshare breaks 33 percent to trade back to 32.98 percent. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn spreads are weaker...
AM Outlook - Watch Meal and Oil
GOOD MORNING, Today's price action is lower as beneficial rainfall blanketed the drier portions of Iowa over the weekend. In the west, moderate...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities
The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the eco...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private y...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the...
PM Post - Modest Comeback to Continue
THE OPEN November beans: 5 3/4 higher December meal: 1.50 higher December soyoil; 19 higher December corn: 1 1/2 higher December w...
Technical Views - Corn Oversold?
SPREADS November crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare is 33.26 percent. Corn spreads stabilize with Dec 19/Dec 20 trading to 32 3/4c from lows of 34...
AM Outlook - Watch Out for the Bear Trap
GOOD MORNING, The commitment-of-trader's report will be out tonight. Will it show that the managed money funds flipped from a long to a short positio...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimate...
Grain Markets Face Uncertainty
It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the...
China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives
China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade War Damage; NOPA July Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Trade War‘s Long-Term Damage to U.S. Soybean Sector It has now been over 13 months since China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans in respon...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.71/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.69/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Tyson Fire and Cattle Markets; Canadian Feeder Pigs
Tyson Fire and Cattle Markets As Matt Herrington reported on Monday, cattle futures were down the limit after Tyson’s packing plant in Garden City, K...
PM Post - Shorter than Short
THE OPEN November beans: steady December meal: .80 lower December soyoil: 18 lower December corn: 3 higher December wheat:&n...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 462,200 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 5 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn:&n...
Technical Views - Mixed Day
SPREADS October crush trades to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades to 33 percent. Dec/March corn narrows into 12 1/2c from 13 1/4c, while Dec 19/Dec 20 c...
AM Outlook - Firmer Beans
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with more short-covering in beans, meal, and corn, with lower soyoil vs. meal trade. The macro pressure o...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. On...
War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver
War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 August 2019 Domestic prices moved in different directions: rising in regions where they had decreased too much the week before a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7025/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7375/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&...
PM Post - Buy Wheat/Sell Corn = Fan Favorite
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 1/2 lower Dec meal: 2.10 lower Dec soyoil: 3 lower Dec corn: 1 higher Dec wheat: 3 higher Prices...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends China Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in 7.5 Years While Beijing has been occupied with the events in Hong Kong, food prices soared an astou...
Technical Views - Lows Beget Lows
SPREADS Oct. crush trades 1.08c/bu while oilshare corrects back under 33% to trade to 32.82%. Spreads are weaker still with Dec 19/20 corn trading ou...
AM Outlook - Have to Trade the Numbers
GOOD MORNING, The market continued to respond to the USDA report on Monday with grains undergoing a round of long liquidation while shorts covered in...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day...
Latest on Tariffs for Chinese Imports
With China’s economic data scheduled to be released tomorrow, the U.S. has made yet another round of adjustments to the pending 10 percent tariffs on...
Trump Blinked, Farmers Lose; What Scares You?
Trump Blinked, Farmers Lose The White House announcement that tariffs on laptops, phones, clothing and other goods from China will be delayed until after t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.765/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Betting Against an Early Frost
USDA reported that adverse spring weather prevented 19 million acres (7.68 million hectares) from being planted this season. To put that number in perspect...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia is adjusting its wheat import requirements for implementation as of the next tender. Trade...
PM Post - Trumped Again
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 higher Dec meal: 1.40 higher Dec soyoil: 18 lower Dec corn: 13 lower Dec wheat: 5 1/...
Technical Views - More Post Report Adjustments
SPREADS October crush trades to 1.09c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.33%. Corn spreads were sharply lower; the Dec 19/Dec 20 inverse of 3c is n...
AM Outlook - Sellers on Rallies
GOOD MORNING, The report yesterday was slightly bullish beans and bearish corn, which caught funds on the wrong side of both markets. Skeptics may be...
Ethanol, Pesticides and Politics
The EPA announced late Friday that it had granted 31 small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2018, bringing the total number to 7.4 percent of the overall 19...
Tiananmen Moment; Macri’s Risk to Farmers
Tiananmen Moment The U.S.-China trade war has justifiably captured the attention of macro watchers, and each day brings more warning signals. Today the Peo...
Market Commentary
It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9275/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.2775 from yesterday's close.&...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean,...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA reports for August 2019: Changes for 2018/19 include reduced soybean crush, reflecting lower domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean ending...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reports for August 2019: U.S. oilseed production is projected at 111.5 million tons, down 4.5 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean pr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans The soybean markets finally started moving with China actively buying at the beginning of last week. Crushers there decided to move after Pr...
WASDE Corn
USDA reports for August 2019: Larger supplies, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.9 bi...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980...
Mitigating Losses
It was an expensive day on LaSalle Street for those previously bullish the 2019/20 U.S. corn crop. Those betting that USDA’s second look at corn plan...
PM Post - Markets React
THE OPEN Nov beans: 7 1/4 lower Dec meal: 2.60 lower Dec soyoil: 13 lower Dec corn: 6 lower Dec wheat:&nb...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat prices are steady/lower across Europe and the Black Sea to start the week with export competition and the advanced harvest progress kee...
Market Reaction - Funds Must Deal with Corn Length
MARKET REACTION Corn prices sharply lower down 6 percent, taking wheat along for the ride, bean losses tempered with lower than expected acreage.&nbs...
Technical Views - Lower Across the Board
SPREADS Crush values continue firm with October at 1.08c/bu and oilshare a strong 33%. Dec/March corn trades from 10 1/4c to 10 1/2, with the Dec 19/...
AM Outlook - Market is Ready to Adjust
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board this morning as better than expected rainfall crosses portions of the Midwest that need it. Cor...
China’s Pitfalls; Boris Channels Donald
China’s Pitfalls Just because the Chinese government is communist in structure doesn’t mean it escapes the heavy dose of politics experienced i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.1775/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.995/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today wi...
Crop Condition and Yield
Uncertainty going into a WASDE has rarely been this large. In a continuing search for clues, the quiver keeps coming up empty. The known metrics of history...
PM Post - Funds are Hedged
THE OPEN November beans: 7 higher December meal: 1.50 higher December soyoil: 33 higher December corn: 3 higher Decemb...
Why Aren’t Farmland Values Dropping?
Farmland values are proving to be very stubborn given the state of farm commodity prices. Cropland values have increased $50/acre in 2019, up 1.2 percent f...
Technical Views - Meal Correction Upwards
SPREADS September KC/Chicago spreads moved to new contract lows yesterday. KC wheat/corn spreads moved back to levels conducive to putting HRW back i...
AM Outlook - Soyoil Needs to Congest Gains
GOOD MORNING! Yesterday's price action was higher in beans and corn with the latter finding a bit more hedging as prices regained the upside. Sharply...
Market Commentary
After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the...
Pork Exports Show Signs of Progress and Risk
The June export data for pork shows the Jekyll and Hyde situation facing the industry. Typically, those sales follow the seasonal slaughter pattern and sta...