Recent Livestock Analysis
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with pressure from macroeconomic markets increasing. In addition to sparking trade wars with nearly every major U.S. trading partner, U.S. Preside...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major ag market, with the notable exception of cattle futures. The buying was most notable in soybeans where, despite the trade war, funds flippe...
Cattle on Feed - April 2025
U.S. cattle on Feed totaled totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2025 - 2 percent below April 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head, 5 percent above 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.73 million head, 1 percent above 2024. O...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report a Day Early
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today because the markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. The total inventory of cattle on feed was 11.6 million head on 1 April, down 2 percent from April 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head,...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Heifers on Feed Drop Below Replacement Heifers
One of the metrics we’ve been watching as a sign of herd rebuilding is the number of heifers as a percent of on feed inventory. However, we’re in new territory. For the first time since heifer on feed reporting began in 1996, the inventory of replacement heifers has fallen below Hei...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Latest CPI Data, Eggs Still in Driver’s Seat
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the “all items index” increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adj...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
Except for beef packer and feedlot placement margins, cattle and hog industry profits were broadly lower last week with the pork industry seeing the most pronounced weakness. Pork packer margins drifted lower on weaker pork values and despite slightly lower hog purchase costs. Last week’s...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Tight Supplies, Strong U.S. Demand to Support Cattle Prices Despite Trade War
Anyone following the beef and cattle markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Now, the outlook is further complicated by the tariffs that will be placed on Mexican feeder cattle impo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Near-record negative margins for beef packers continue to dominate discussion of livestock industry margins this week. Beef packer profits rebounded slightly last week on the heels of firmer beef markets, but remain at -$176/head, which is among the weakest levels in the past two decades. Feedl...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.23/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $1 f...
Hog Outlook Shows Smaller Production and Exports, but Strong Demand in 2025
The March Hogs and Pigs report offered the industry a much-needed look at what the supply situation is and is likely to be for the coming year. As WPI readers likely already know, the report showed that all-hogs and pigs inventories were essentially equal to last year’s numbers with marke...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1675/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.5 million head. This was down slightly from 1 March 2024 and down 1 percent from 1 December. Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, and...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.01/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $...
Livestock Industry Margins
The big story in livestock industry margins continues to be the record-breaking weakness in beef packer profits, which fell another $50/head last week to -$193/head. The surge in cattle prices and declines in slaughter weights more than offset gains in beef values and left packers with the lowe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $2.7...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Hot CoF Report After the Close
The fundamentals are unchanged but there is a cloud overhead due to the impending tariff war and the headwinds that portends. So, the market today and all week is a matter of treading water until more definitive cues emerge. In fact, today was so mixed that soybeans and soyoil fell even as typi...
Cattle on Feed - March 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head was 11.6 million head on March 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below March 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.55 million head, 18 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.6 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were 1.55 million head, 82 percent of last year, and marketings at 1.74 million head were 91 percent of Fe...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.2...
Cow-Calf Revenues and Producer Responses to Inflation
Southern Plains cow-calf producers saw excellent profitability in 2024, which, by some measures, was the best in history. Current prices indicate that 2025 has similar potential to break profitability records and put the industry on solid financial footing. The impacts of inflation, however, in...
Market Commentary: Export Sales, Weather Mix the Markets
Wheat was the ball and chain while corn was the balloon in today’s trading. The weekly USDA Export Sales report from USDA was notable for wheat with washouts in old crop sales leading to a marketing year low, but new crop sales going blockbuster as Guatemala, Mexico and Panama all sought...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
Market Commentary: U.S., Paris Wheat Diverge; Corn Consolidates; New Highs for Cattle
Except for the wheat market, the CBOT and CME largely continued their existing trends on Wednesday. Wheat futures offered perhaps the most interesting trade as HRW futures reversed course from their recent weather-induced rally and pulled back. The spot KCBT contract settled below $6.00, which...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.7/short ton, down $2.2...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly lower last week as rising input costs crimped the profitability outlook. Declines were greatest for feedlot placements, where margins fell over $50/head due to higher feeder cattle costs. Beef packer margins saw the next greatest declines with profits drop...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal
Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight day. Unexpected strength in the physical cattle and beef markets has propelled futures higher this week, with funds rapidly expanding already...
Cattle Markets Still Screwy
The cattle marketing year is off to a strange start. In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year. This component of production is driven by two factors: heavier carcass weights of steers and heifers, and the proportion of...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.155/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.3/short ton, down $1.6 from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of their long (74,000 contracts) and are now long just 132,000 contracts, or less than half of their position just a few weeks ago. That rapid li...
Market Commentary: Week of Turmoil, Uncertainty, but Not All Dark
There was little in terms of new fundamentals today, and on generally lower volume the board saw mixed trading and results. It was a big week for HRW as the acuity of the drought in the Southern Plains becomes clearer. Overall, the trends are as follows: It was the fourth week in a row lower f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.16/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $305.9/short ton, down $1.2 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $307.1/short ton, up $6.9 from...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE
Historical red meat and poultry supply and use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions in slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and production data. Total red meat and poultry production for 2025 is raised on higher beef and chicken production forecasts, which is partially offset by lower por...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $1...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly steady/higher last week, with the notable exception of beef packer margins. Beef processing profits fell $20/head last week as fed cattle prices rose more than beef prices and a dip in slaughter weights reduced packers’ sales volume. Feedlot margins...
Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War
Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE release and stayed that way. While corn and soybeans traded mostly in the green ahead of the report, wheat had no reason to be bullish. There wa...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, dow...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Canada Cattle Market
New trade disruptions, such as the 25 percent tariffs on Canadian feeder cattle, could possibly lead to more cattle being kept on pasture in Canada, which may lead to lower prices due to the retained, larger cattle population. Conversely, less beef being processed in the U.S. from Canadian catt...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Egg Estimations
Eggs are in the news due to avian influenza reducing the total supply and inelastic demand causing prices to skyrocket. However, the impacts are felt even more dramatically in lower income countries where eggs have traditionally been a lower cost animal protein source. The Netherlands is the to...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Livestock Industry Margins
Production margins across the livestock industry were mostly higher last week, except for the beef packing sector and closeout feedlot margins. Beef packer margins carved out another week of losses and are narrowly hovering above 10-year lows. Packers have been aggressively slowing fed cattle p...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...
Livestock Roundup: 2025 Outlook
Today is the 2025 USDA Outlook Conference, a fitting time to look at commodity forecasts for the upcoming year. Below is USDA’s outlook for the livestock and products commodities. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) cattle report was released on 31 January, showing t...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.81/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $2.3...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Ag Futures Fall; Bears Trying to Run Away with Market
The CBOT was broadly lower on Wednesday with fund selling and a lack of bullish news or inputs pushing values into the red. Wheat was the biggest loser for the day and its weakness helped pull corn off an early rally where May futures tested the $5.00 level to no avail. The soy complex was on t...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Further but Soy Complex Show Strength
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with risk-off trade and seasonal factors driving most of the day’s action. The markets are also seeing a good bit of repositioning heading into first notice day on Friday, which helped drive heavy-volume trade and some of spread trade dynamics. The soy...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.1...
Livestock Industry Margins
Production margins across the livestock industry were broadly lower last week, with weaker profits in the beef and pork packing sectors leading the way. Beef packer margins fell to -$135/head last week due to decreases in beef prices that offset slightly lower fed cattle prices. Margins are now...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
2025 Pork in China
Zhu Zengyong, an analyst and researcher with the state-backed Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said on Monday that there is no more room for pork growth in China. A rise in demand from the world’s largest consumer of pork has propelled the expansion and modernization of hog...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.9/short ton, down $3 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds
The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gains in the longer dated positions. South American weather and the volatile situation in macro markets with consumers pulling back each had th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed on February 1, 2025 was down one percent from a year ago. The total was 11.7 million head in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more cattle. Placements into feedlots during January 2025 totaled 1.82 million head, 2 percent above 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 7-13, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 532,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 232,700 MT were down 60 percent from the previous week and 43 percent f...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 11.7 million head, at 99 percent of last year. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.82 million head, 2 percent above 2024. Net placements were 1.76 million head. Marketings totaled 1.87 mill...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9125/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.8/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.2 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 99.4 percent and 100.3 percent of 1 February 2024. Marketing...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, up $0.9...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Market Commentary: Exports Bouy Corn; Wheat Rallies on Cold Snap Concerns
Grain futures were weaker overnight following the long weekend and after President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy. The markets bounced back Tuesday, however, with a positive export sales report buoying corn while fears of winterkill in the U.S. winter wheat crop pushed wheat futures...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6.0475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.385/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $293.8/short ton, down $2.1 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
Market Commentary: Weather, Economy, Tariffs All Jiggle the Market
There were surprisingly only modest trading volumes in this last trading session before a three-day holiday. There was no rush to escape positions. The livestock complex and soyoil closed lower, but the rest of the top trading ag commodities made gains on the day, but only cattle, soybeans, and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $3.2 from yeste...
2025 Hog Pork Outlook Positive for Producers and Packers
Anyone following the hog and pork markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Earlier this week, the USDA issued a supportive outlook for the hog and pork markets in 2025, which helped...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Outlook
Beef production is now forecast at 26.632 million pounds, an increase of 775 million pounds (+3 percent) from the January forecast. Before taking this number at face value, however, it’s important to consider how the USDA constructs its forecasts. If there is a significant change in marke...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2775/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296.6/short ton, down $3.9 fr...
Livestock Industry Margins
U.S. meat packer margins fell further last week as beef and, to a lesser extent pork, values contracted while animal procurement costs remain high. WPI’s models estimate beef packers lost $145/head last week, which is the second-largest weekly loss since our models began in 2010. Pork pac...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.915/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.5/short ton, down $0.9 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.4/short ton, down $5 f...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $306.4/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Market Commentary: Volatile As Long As Tariffs Are Uncertain
The big news in the ag commodity markets Wednesday was the pullback in soybean futures as traders remain wary of the political tensions and tariff developments between Washington and Beijing. If this doesn’t sound like a major news story, you’d be correct, but this was about as even...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9325/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Tariff Relief; Cattle Selloff Extends to Second Day
Markets were encouraged by the fact both Canada and Mexico were able to secure 30-day delays on Trump’s tariff plans, which offers hope the duties are indeed a negotiating tactic rather than a steadfast policy platform. The big issue remains the 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and Chi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.945/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, up $10.3 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s monthly inflation rate increased by 5.03 percent in January while the 12-month inflation rate stood at 42.12 percent. Turkey’s inflation rate dropped significantly from the 75 percent rate in May 2024. Lebanon...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock producer margins were mostly higher last week as gains in physical cattle prices and deferred hog futures supported profitability expectations. Feedlot margins for both placements and closeouts rose sharply last week, and in the case of closeout marketings neared all-time record highs...
Market Commentary: Tariff Whiplash
News of President Trump’s tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada drove the agricultural and macroeconomic markets on Monday with seemingly every tick, dip, and rally stemming from political factors. Over the weekend, President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods as well...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $2.6 f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The reduction in export taxes has not yet had the expected impact of boosting farmer sales of grain and soybeans. The main issue is that price transmission has not been fully realized, primarily because exporters oppose the requirement to bring foreign currency into the countr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds still engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Funds expanded their long position in corn by 7 percent and are now just about 17,000 contract shy of their seasonal record long position. Funds were n...
Market Commentary: Tariffs More Than Weather
President Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow eclipsed concerns about South American weather and sent much of the agricultural futures complex into the red on Friday. Both countries will retaliate with Canada saying it will be...
Cattle Inventory Report: U.S. Cattle Herd Still in Contraction
USDA released its January Cattle Inventory report today. The U.S. cattle herd is still in a contraction phase. The total inventory of all cattle and calves as of 1 January was 86.7 million head, down 500,000 head from last year. Key numbers from today’s report are: The cattle on f...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day with Wheat Hot, The Rest Not
Today’s trading session pretty much followed the overnight with wheat notching a third day of gains but traders taking a breather on corn, beans, and cattle. While wheat is girded by doubtful moisture conditions in the northern Black Sea region, the corn and soybean markets do not want to...
January Cattle Inventory Report Preview
Tomorrow, the USDA will release its January Cattle Inventory Report. Given USDA’s decision to drop the July mid-year report due to budget constraints, tomorrow’s inventory report has been highly anticipated. On Monday of this week, WPI noted the significance of the upcoming report.&...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.665/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $5.1 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Lead CBOT Higher; Cattle Correct Ahead of Inventory Report
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday due to the bullish influences of wheat and corn. The two grains saw support from Black Sea and South American weather impacts, respectively, with production outlooks for both regions falling. That put futures in a bullish mood with funds expanding net lon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.97/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $8.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain but Lack Conviction; More All-Time Highs for Cattle
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday in what was mostly a technically driven corrective bounce. With South America’s weather still not perfect and various harvest/planting delays ongoing, there is a need to maintain some risk premium in prices. At the same time, however, overall supplies (es...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $0.8 from yes...
Livestock Industry Margins
Rising animal costs pressured beef and pork packer margins last week while offering a boost to livestock feeders. Most notably, feedlot margins improved significantly last week due to record-high fed cattle prices and weaker feed costs, though placement margins are still negative due to high fe...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Tariff Threats Ease; Cattle Surge to New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-tat trade war over the weekend. Sunday saw both the U.S. and Colombian presidents threaten each other’s country with 25 percent tariffs...
January Cattle on Feed Report Bullish
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.8 million head, 99 percent of last year. The smaller inventory was driven by increased marketings and decreased placements. The placement data was bullish, coming in...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latter. There were new contract highs, again, in cattle. Overall weakness was blamed on Argentina’s announced lower tax rates on commodity...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.865/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5575/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, down $10...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on January 1, 2025 – down 1 percent from January 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.64 million head, 3 percent below 2023. Marketings of fed cattle during December t...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still plenty of strength. Corn remains up about a nickel for the week, beans up more than 30-cents and while wheat dipped today, the large gains l...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish Feeder Pig Market
Bullish feeder pig prices could signal an expected return to improved profitability for hog production later this year. The 17 January National Direct Feeder Pig Report showed the weighted average (cash and formula) price of 10-12 pound early weaned pigs was $82.37 per head on...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8975/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.655/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $0.5 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat on Profit Taking, Tariff Talk; Cattle Hit $200 for First Time
Except for soymeal and the livestock markets, the CBOT was lower on Wednesday with traders booking profits and taking a more cautious approach after the recent runup in prices. Too, rhetoric out of the White House is keeping traders guessing on the possible application of and retaliation to var...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 January 2025 Last week, the market woke up from the prolonged Christmas holidays and surprisingly remained bullish against a stable export trend and high export duties. Growing duties may nip the bullish trend in the bud. Russian wheat can now freely go into...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were decidedly mixed last week with diverging trends developing across the industry. Beef packer margins gained for the second straight week thanks to stronger beef prices that offset higher fed cattle prices, while feedlot margins dipped for both placements and close...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Surge as Dollar Slides
The first full day of the Trump Presidency saw CBOT grain futures surge as the U.S. dollar pulled back sharply. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all saw strong buying influences after the long U.S. holiday weekend with traders seeing bullish news from several points. The first point was President Trum...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the biggest feature of the report was funds’ exchange of a small net short in soybeans for a modest long of 58,000 contracts, after they bought...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $2.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Market Gets a Bounce Ahead of Long Weekend
Commodity markets retraced some of the losses from Thursday, ending higher on Friday but not necessarily for the week. Corn is on a roll, nearing heights not seen in more than a year, but even cattle lost some of their bullish glow this week. 01172025MC_weeklychange.png 22.13 KBA key vect...
Cow-Calf Revenues Set Record in 2024, Profitability to Continue in 2025
The rally in feeder cattle and calf prices from September 2024 through mid-January 2025 provided cow-calf producers with near-record profitability for the 2024 calf crop. Higher prices for calves and feeder cattle, combined with record- or near-record high values for cull cows, pushed cow-calf...
Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake
Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than nothing, and something is all it takes to put brakes on a borderline market. The day’s trading closely tracked the overnight, with red showi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.19/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.4/short ton, down $7.6 f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 January 2025Traditionally during a prolonged holiday season, which in Russia does not coincide with the holiday season in most other countries because of the Russian Orthodox calendar, Russian grain trading volume is low. However, pricing forgot about the holiday s...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather
The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as fully priced into futures, which left markets to return to trading the South American weather outlooks and export trends. Both of these facto...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $2 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were broadly higher last week with the one exception being placement margins for feedlots and closeout margins for farrow-to-finish hog operations. Higher feeder animal costs drove expected margins for last week’s feeder cattle placements lower, with profits for the i...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ activity matched up with expectations and general market direction. Note that the data, which captures funds’ positions through Tuesday, 7 Jan...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trying to Find New Ranges
The CBOT saw more bullish influences on Monday from Friday’s WASDE report in which USDA slashed the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields. After considering the numbers and implications over the weekend, traders decided there was enough demand for both products and, if USDA’s latest numbers are cor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.8/short ton, up $9.5 from yester...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the Balkans and Ukraine saw unseasonably warm weather with moderate rainfall while Russia saw cold weather with light precipitation. The current forecasts call for cooler temperatures in France and Spain, but warmth in the UK and from Poland eastward (with the exce...
Market Commentary: Big Bullish Whopper
This last trading day of the first full trading week of 2025 came in like a whimper and went out with a bang. The trading day started with a notably sub-par Export Sales report from USDA. New commitments for wheat, corn, and soybeans all hit a marketing year low for export sales last week...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.705/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, up $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 27, 2024 – January 2, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 111,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 21 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 414,300 MT were up 9 percent f...
Market Commentary: Big Nothingburger
It was a good thing that futures markets closed early today given that there were very few inputs to guide movements. The U.S. government was closed in observance of President Jimmy Carter’s memorial, so reports like weekly Export Sales are delayed until tomorrow. Wall Street and the...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $299.3/short ton, down $1.5 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Market Conditions Transitioning from 2024 to 2025
Last year, cattle markets were driven by tight supplies of cattle, heavy carcass weights, low cow culling rates, higher input costs, more imports of feeder cattle, and the detection of New World Screwworm in Mexico in November. All were factors in record prices. The focus now turns to 2025, and...
Market Commentary: Comfortable, With Jitters
There was generally low volume in grains today as traders await USDA’s important reports on Friday. There is no reason to spend more money on fees or commissions after spending several days aligning with the perceived outcomes. At the same time, market noise does not completely stop and there i...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3625/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.8/short ton, down $2.7 fr...
Market Commentary: No Major Swings on More Positioning Ahead of WASDE
Corn opened lower but managed a quarter penny higher close, and hogs tried to follow cattle higher at the open but ended lower for a third session in a row, but the rest of the pack ended the day where it started with equally small changes.Fundamentals are helping corn, wheat and cattle, and so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.58/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.5/short ton, down $3.8 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Precipitation Forecasts Fall
The CBOT tried – and mostly succeeded – to reverse Friday’s selloff with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all turning higher to start the first full trading week of 2025. The fundamental catalysts for the day’s strength were the slide in the U.S. dollar, thanks to more trade-friendly (or at lea...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9775/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.3/short ton, down $1.3 from yes...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.6/short ton, down $11...
Market Commentary: 2025 Brings Corrections for Overbought Futures
The CBOT started 2025 on a relatively strong note, but any hints of bullishness were largely erased on Friday. Ag markets across the board fell sharply on the second trading day of the new year with weak export data, South American weather, and changes on taxes on trading profits driving much o...
2025 Poultry Outlook
The poultry sector is poised for production growth in 2025, but price trends are expected to vary across products. Broiler growers in the U.S. placed 191 million chicks for meat production last week, which was up 4 percent from the last week of December 2023. Cumulative placements from the...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 20-26, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 140,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 77 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 381,900 MT were up 2 percent from the previous...
Market Commentary: New Year, Same Trend - Corn and Beans Higher, Wheat Not
Corn and soybeans opened lower but quickly shifted back to positive territory. All three wheats were lower in overnight trading and pretty much traded lower all during the day session. There was good volume trading in HRW, cattle and feeders. March feeder cattle hit a new contract high. Lean ho...
Livestock Roundup: New Year Meat and Livestock Snapshot
Typically, prices for hams and the beef rib primal drop after Christmas, but this year, reduced slaughter has been more supportive of prices. What does that portend for 2025? Cattle slaughter last week was down 29.7 percent compared to the week prior and down 13.3 percent from year-ago le...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $319.9/short ton, up $3 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Year End Rally in Corn and Beans
The day’s trading started out hum and glum. Corn and soybean contracts moved modestly like their overnight closes and stayed marginal for most of the day. Soyoil was continuing its recent mostly negative run. Wheat never went anywhere important, high or low. Then there was a breakout late...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.515/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, up $5.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Year-End Maneuvering
On this penultimate day of trading in 2024, there were ups, downs and perhaps some profit-taking. Like the overnight, grains and soybeans opened higher this morning. However, by late morning most contracts dipped lower and then the soy complex, SRW and HRW managed to snag a higher close at the...
Cattle Market 2024 Retrospective and 2025 Outlook
This week marks the end of 2024, and the beginning of 2025. Indeed, 2024 was a notable year in the cattle markets with implications to carry over into next year. The U.S. cattle inventory entered 2024 at the lowest level since 1951, with the supply of feeder cattle outside feedlots...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, up $1.3 from...
Export Sales Bouy Grains; Argy Weather, Slow Exports Sink Soybeans
Grain markets were quiet in Friday’s overnight trade despite the bullish technical days they scored on Thursday. The Export Sales report – as one of the few fundamental updates available for the day – was influential in determining the grain markets’ direction for the day. That meant support fo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.465/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $310.5/short ton, down $4.4 from y...
Argentine Weather Emboldens CBOT Bulls
The CBOT found its way to higher ground on Thursday after an old-school hard opening with no overnight session to guide the market. Argentina’s weather is starting to become more impactful for grain futures as dryness persists into the mid-January forecast, which could disrupt early corn and so...
Livestock Roundup: Butterfat Boom
As WPI reported on 2 July, USDA released its proposed Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) reforms; the final proposal was released in early November 2024. This final proposal will now go to producer referenda in each of the 11 FMMO regions. Producers whose milk was pooled in January...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314.9/short ton, up $13.3 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 December 2024Last week, the Russian grain markets showed the first signs of the holiday season with rather weak trading. Russian grain markets and especially export business will adjust to the Christmas season globally which will then enter Russian Orthodox Christ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7525/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Consolidate in Pre-Christmas Trade
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal closed higher ahead of the Christmas holiday, driven by short covering, technical factors, and increasing dryness in Argentina. Trading volume was predictably light on Christmas Eve, as traders showed little interest in adding risk during the seasonal trading slowdow...
Livestock Industry Margins
Both beef and pork packer margins improved last week on stronger spot meat demand and pricing while producer margins showed mixed trends. Margins for feedlot placements, weaned hog placements, and pigs farrowed last week all fell from the prior week. In the case of feedlots and wean-to-finish h...
Hogs and Pigs with Bearish Undertones
On 23 December, USDA released its quarterly (Sept-Nov) Hogs & Pigs report and it was bearish. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75.845 million head, up 0.5 percent year-on-year and slightly ahead of the pre-report consensus estimates.12242024dave1.png 41.47 KBThe typica...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Corn followed the wheat market higher with its own support from the strong export program as USDA reported more “flash” export sales Monday. S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.695/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $4.2 from yest...
Total versus Change in Pork Consumption
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was 11.982 million head on December 1, 2024 in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. This inventory was slightly below the December 1, 2023 total of 12.016 million head.Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.80 million head, 4 percent below 2023. Marke...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
December Cattle on Feed Report in Line with Expectations
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 12 million head, the same as last year, as expected. Placements also were as expected, and marketings were slightly above November 2023. 12202024dj.png 22.92 KBNovember marketings as a percent of...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.745/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302.2/short ton, up $11.2 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not oversold technically, but with values sitting on or near major support levels, many traders figured this was the time to take short risk off t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.63/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $4.9 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.9 percent of last year’s 12 million head. The range of estimates was between 99.4 percent and 100.3 percent of 1 December 2023. 12192...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.5175/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $7.7...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and wheat flirting with contract lows. Not even the news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations and Spain...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7675/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Pork packers were the only sector of the livestock industry to see significant improvement in profit margins last week. In contrast, beef packers saw margins fall by another $35/head as the sharp rally in fed cattle prices offset mild gains in beef values. For feedlots, expected profits for las...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.82/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $0.7 from yeste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume declined this week and, barring some surprise, will be even lower through the holidays. There was nothing unlucky about Friday the 13th, unl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.2/short ton, down $3.3 f...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be heading into the new year. It’s no secret that fed cattle supplies remain tight and that the pipeline is low amid the ban on feeder cattle import...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all on the low end of expectations and below last week’s values, which prompted traders to abandon (temporarily, at le...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish WASDE 2025 Outlook
This week’s WASDE held steady the price outlook for 2024 fed steers and broilers and increased hog prices slightly. The fed cattle price has generally been forecast up all year, except for a drop in the September estimates. 12122024dj.png 29.46 KBPrices for all species are expected to inc...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm Following Bullish WASDE; Cattle Extend Rally
Grain futures continued to find support from Tuesday’s bullish WASDE report with corn, wheat, and soybeans all trading higher, though corn futures dipped into the red during the final minutes of trading. Traders followed through on the bullish signals from the WASDE as well as increasingly bull...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6325/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.955/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.9 fro...
Market Commentary: WASDE Increases Corn, Soyoil Demand; Cattle Rally on Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the WASDE as funds were cautiously covering shorts and paring back risk before the holidays. The WASDE proved to be slightly bullish corn and mostly neutral soybeans and wheat, proving the short-covering trend to have been a good idea. Aside from the WASD...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $292/short ton, up $2.4 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
The livestock packing sector saw mixed trends in profitability over the past week with packer margins improving for both the beef and pork sectors. Beef packing margins have been negative for five weeks now and hog packing margins in the red for three weeks, both of which present a threat to pr...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Ahead of the WASDE
The CBOT saw mostly WASDE-motivated short covering on Monday with funds scaling back short positions in wheat and soybeans and cautiously extending longs in the corn market. Fresh news was light for the day and traders were mostly focused on adjusting positions ahead of the WASDE. The weather r...
Red Meat and Broiler Trade
October meat and livestock trade data was released on Friday. Beef exports are down 2.6 percent at 2.5 billion pounds, following lower U.S. beef production (down 0.4 percent) and higher prices. October exports to Canada fell 23.7 percent. Exports to Japan were flat year to date at 543 million p...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday season. Corn’s range-bound trade these past two weeks prompted funds to shed 13 percent of their long position in the market and have liquida...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.4/short ton, down $3.7 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Higher on Export Data
The CBOT moved higher on Thursday after the weekly Export Sales report provided bullish demand-side inputs for the major commodities. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil futures all pushed higher for the day with export demand seeming to pick up and remain above expectations in the case of corn,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from yesterda...
Livestock Roundup: Feeder Cattle Prices
Recent rains have been supportive of feeder cattle prices. The moisture has been a catalyst to prices given the smaller overall supply of calves with drought no longer pulling ahead of feeder cattle placements. This development comes on top of the normal seasonal pattern of high calf prices thi...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat; Cattle Contemplate their Direction
The CBOT continued its mostly range-bound trading affair on Wednesday with the ag markets seeing little fresh news to drive price action one way or another. Wheat futures hit new contract lows but recovered from that selloff to end slightly higher, though the market seems committed to staying n...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8375/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.5 from y...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with pressure from macroeconomic markets increasing. In addition to sparking trade wars with nearly every major U.S. trading partner, U.S. Preside...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major ag market, with the notable exception of cattle futures. The buying was most notable in soybeans where, despite the trade war, funds flippe...
Cattle on Feed - April 2025
U.S. cattle on Feed totaled totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2025 - 2 percent below April 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head, 5 percent above 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.73 million head, 1 percent above 2024. O...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report a Day Early
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today because the markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. The total inventory of cattle on feed was 11.6 million head on 1 April, down 2 percent from April 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head,...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Heifers on Feed Drop Below Replacement Heifers
One of the metrics we’ve been watching as a sign of herd rebuilding is the number of heifers as a percent of on feed inventory. However, we’re in new territory. For the first time since heifer on feed reporting began in 1996, the inventory of replacement heifers has fallen below Hei...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Latest CPI Data, Eggs Still in Driver’s Seat
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the “all items index” increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adj...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
Except for beef packer and feedlot placement margins, cattle and hog industry profits were broadly lower last week with the pork industry seeing the most pronounced weakness. Pork packer margins drifted lower on weaker pork values and despite slightly lower hog purchase costs. Last week’s...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Tight Supplies, Strong U.S. Demand to Support Cattle Prices Despite Trade War
Anyone following the beef and cattle markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Now, the outlook is further complicated by the tariffs that will be placed on Mexican feeder cattle impo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Near-record negative margins for beef packers continue to dominate discussion of livestock industry margins this week. Beef packer profits rebounded slightly last week on the heels of firmer beef markets, but remain at -$176/head, which is among the weakest levels in the past two decades. Feedl...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.23/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $1 f...
Hog Outlook Shows Smaller Production and Exports, but Strong Demand in 2025
The March Hogs and Pigs report offered the industry a much-needed look at what the supply situation is and is likely to be for the coming year. As WPI readers likely already know, the report showed that all-hogs and pigs inventories were essentially equal to last year’s numbers with marke...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1675/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.5 million head. This was down slightly from 1 March 2024 and down 1 percent from 1 December. Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, and...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.01/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $...
Livestock Industry Margins
The big story in livestock industry margins continues to be the record-breaking weakness in beef packer profits, which fell another $50/head last week to -$193/head. The surge in cattle prices and declines in slaughter weights more than offset gains in beef values and left packers with the lowe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $2.7...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Hot CoF Report After the Close
The fundamentals are unchanged but there is a cloud overhead due to the impending tariff war and the headwinds that portends. So, the market today and all week is a matter of treading water until more definitive cues emerge. In fact, today was so mixed that soybeans and soyoil fell even as typi...
Cattle on Feed - March 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head was 11.6 million head on March 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below March 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.55 million head, 18 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.6 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were 1.55 million head, 82 percent of last year, and marketings at 1.74 million head were 91 percent of Fe...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.2...
Cow-Calf Revenues and Producer Responses to Inflation
Southern Plains cow-calf producers saw excellent profitability in 2024, which, by some measures, was the best in history. Current prices indicate that 2025 has similar potential to break profitability records and put the industry on solid financial footing. The impacts of inflation, however, in...
Market Commentary: Export Sales, Weather Mix the Markets
Wheat was the ball and chain while corn was the balloon in today’s trading. The weekly USDA Export Sales report from USDA was notable for wheat with washouts in old crop sales leading to a marketing year low, but new crop sales going blockbuster as Guatemala, Mexico and Panama all sought...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
Market Commentary: U.S., Paris Wheat Diverge; Corn Consolidates; New Highs for Cattle
Except for the wheat market, the CBOT and CME largely continued their existing trends on Wednesday. Wheat futures offered perhaps the most interesting trade as HRW futures reversed course from their recent weather-induced rally and pulled back. The spot KCBT contract settled below $6.00, which...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.7/short ton, down $2.2...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly lower last week as rising input costs crimped the profitability outlook. Declines were greatest for feedlot placements, where margins fell over $50/head due to higher feeder cattle costs. Beef packer margins saw the next greatest declines with profits drop...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal
Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight day. Unexpected strength in the physical cattle and beef markets has propelled futures higher this week, with funds rapidly expanding already...
Cattle Markets Still Screwy
The cattle marketing year is off to a strange start. In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year. This component of production is driven by two factors: heavier carcass weights of steers and heifers, and the proportion of...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.155/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.3/short ton, down $1.6 from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of their long (74,000 contracts) and are now long just 132,000 contracts, or less than half of their position just a few weeks ago. That rapid li...
Market Commentary: Week of Turmoil, Uncertainty, but Not All Dark
There was little in terms of new fundamentals today, and on generally lower volume the board saw mixed trading and results. It was a big week for HRW as the acuity of the drought in the Southern Plains becomes clearer. Overall, the trends are as follows: It was the fourth week in a row lower f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.16/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $305.9/short ton, down $1.2 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $307.1/short ton, up $6.9 from...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE
Historical red meat and poultry supply and use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions in slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and production data. Total red meat and poultry production for 2025 is raised on higher beef and chicken production forecasts, which is partially offset by lower por...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $1...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly steady/higher last week, with the notable exception of beef packer margins. Beef processing profits fell $20/head last week as fed cattle prices rose more than beef prices and a dip in slaughter weights reduced packers’ sales volume. Feedlot margins...
Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War
Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE release and stayed that way. While corn and soybeans traded mostly in the green ahead of the report, wheat had no reason to be bullish. There wa...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, dow...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Canada Cattle Market
New trade disruptions, such as the 25 percent tariffs on Canadian feeder cattle, could possibly lead to more cattle being kept on pasture in Canada, which may lead to lower prices due to the retained, larger cattle population. Conversely, less beef being processed in the U.S. from Canadian catt...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Egg Estimations
Eggs are in the news due to avian influenza reducing the total supply and inelastic demand causing prices to skyrocket. However, the impacts are felt even more dramatically in lower income countries where eggs have traditionally been a lower cost animal protein source. The Netherlands is the to...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Livestock Industry Margins
Production margins across the livestock industry were mostly higher last week, except for the beef packing sector and closeout feedlot margins. Beef packer margins carved out another week of losses and are narrowly hovering above 10-year lows. Packers have been aggressively slowing fed cattle p...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...
Livestock Roundup: 2025 Outlook
Today is the 2025 USDA Outlook Conference, a fitting time to look at commodity forecasts for the upcoming year. Below is USDA’s outlook for the livestock and products commodities. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) cattle report was released on 31 January, showing t...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.81/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $2.3...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Ag Futures Fall; Bears Trying to Run Away with Market
The CBOT was broadly lower on Wednesday with fund selling and a lack of bullish news or inputs pushing values into the red. Wheat was the biggest loser for the day and its weakness helped pull corn off an early rally where May futures tested the $5.00 level to no avail. The soy complex was on t...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Further but Soy Complex Show Strength
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with risk-off trade and seasonal factors driving most of the day’s action. The markets are also seeing a good bit of repositioning heading into first notice day on Friday, which helped drive heavy-volume trade and some of spread trade dynamics. The soy...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.1...
Livestock Industry Margins
Production margins across the livestock industry were broadly lower last week, with weaker profits in the beef and pork packing sectors leading the way. Beef packer margins fell to -$135/head last week due to decreases in beef prices that offset slightly lower fed cattle prices. Margins are now...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
2025 Pork in China
Zhu Zengyong, an analyst and researcher with the state-backed Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said on Monday that there is no more room for pork growth in China. A rise in demand from the world’s largest consumer of pork has propelled the expansion and modernization of hog...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.9/short ton, down $3 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds
The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gains in the longer dated positions. South American weather and the volatile situation in macro markets with consumers pulling back each had th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed on February 1, 2025 was down one percent from a year ago. The total was 11.7 million head in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more cattle. Placements into feedlots during January 2025 totaled 1.82 million head, 2 percent above 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 7-13, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 532,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 232,700 MT were down 60 percent from the previous week and 43 percent f...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 11.7 million head, at 99 percent of last year. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.82 million head, 2 percent above 2024. Net placements were 1.76 million head. Marketings totaled 1.87 mill...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9125/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.8/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.2 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 99.4 percent and 100.3 percent of 1 February 2024. Marketing...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, up $0.9...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Market Commentary: Exports Bouy Corn; Wheat Rallies on Cold Snap Concerns
Grain futures were weaker overnight following the long weekend and after President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy. The markets bounced back Tuesday, however, with a positive export sales report buoying corn while fears of winterkill in the U.S. winter wheat crop pushed wheat futures...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6.0475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.385/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $293.8/short ton, down $2.1 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
Market Commentary: Weather, Economy, Tariffs All Jiggle the Market
There were surprisingly only modest trading volumes in this last trading session before a three-day holiday. There was no rush to escape positions. The livestock complex and soyoil closed lower, but the rest of the top trading ag commodities made gains on the day, but only cattle, soybeans, and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $3.2 from yeste...
2025 Hog Pork Outlook Positive for Producers and Packers
Anyone following the hog and pork markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Earlier this week, the USDA issued a supportive outlook for the hog and pork markets in 2025, which helped...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Outlook
Beef production is now forecast at 26.632 million pounds, an increase of 775 million pounds (+3 percent) from the January forecast. Before taking this number at face value, however, it’s important to consider how the USDA constructs its forecasts. If there is a significant change in marke...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2775/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296.6/short ton, down $3.9 fr...
Livestock Industry Margins
U.S. meat packer margins fell further last week as beef and, to a lesser extent pork, values contracted while animal procurement costs remain high. WPI’s models estimate beef packers lost $145/head last week, which is the second-largest weekly loss since our models began in 2010. Pork pac...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.915/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.5/short ton, down $0.9 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.4/short ton, down $5 f...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $306.4/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Market Commentary: Volatile As Long As Tariffs Are Uncertain
The big news in the ag commodity markets Wednesday was the pullback in soybean futures as traders remain wary of the political tensions and tariff developments between Washington and Beijing. If this doesn’t sound like a major news story, you’d be correct, but this was about as even...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9325/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Tariff Relief; Cattle Selloff Extends to Second Day
Markets were encouraged by the fact both Canada and Mexico were able to secure 30-day delays on Trump’s tariff plans, which offers hope the duties are indeed a negotiating tactic rather than a steadfast policy platform. The big issue remains the 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and Chi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.945/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, up $10.3 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s monthly inflation rate increased by 5.03 percent in January while the 12-month inflation rate stood at 42.12 percent. Turkey’s inflation rate dropped significantly from the 75 percent rate in May 2024. Lebanon...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock producer margins were mostly higher last week as gains in physical cattle prices and deferred hog futures supported profitability expectations. Feedlot margins for both placements and closeouts rose sharply last week, and in the case of closeout marketings neared all-time record highs...
Market Commentary: Tariff Whiplash
News of President Trump’s tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada drove the agricultural and macroeconomic markets on Monday with seemingly every tick, dip, and rally stemming from political factors. Over the weekend, President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods as well...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $2.6 f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The reduction in export taxes has not yet had the expected impact of boosting farmer sales of grain and soybeans. The main issue is that price transmission has not been fully realized, primarily because exporters oppose the requirement to bring foreign currency into the countr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds still engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Funds expanded their long position in corn by 7 percent and are now just about 17,000 contract shy of their seasonal record long position. Funds were n...
Market Commentary: Tariffs More Than Weather
President Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow eclipsed concerns about South American weather and sent much of the agricultural futures complex into the red on Friday. Both countries will retaliate with Canada saying it will be...
Cattle Inventory Report: U.S. Cattle Herd Still in Contraction
USDA released its January Cattle Inventory report today. The U.S. cattle herd is still in a contraction phase. The total inventory of all cattle and calves as of 1 January was 86.7 million head, down 500,000 head from last year. Key numbers from today’s report are: The cattle on f...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day with Wheat Hot, The Rest Not
Today’s trading session pretty much followed the overnight with wheat notching a third day of gains but traders taking a breather on corn, beans, and cattle. While wheat is girded by doubtful moisture conditions in the northern Black Sea region, the corn and soybean markets do not want to...
January Cattle Inventory Report Preview
Tomorrow, the USDA will release its January Cattle Inventory Report. Given USDA’s decision to drop the July mid-year report due to budget constraints, tomorrow’s inventory report has been highly anticipated. On Monday of this week, WPI noted the significance of the upcoming report.&...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.665/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $5.1 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Lead CBOT Higher; Cattle Correct Ahead of Inventory Report
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday due to the bullish influences of wheat and corn. The two grains saw support from Black Sea and South American weather impacts, respectively, with production outlooks for both regions falling. That put futures in a bullish mood with funds expanding net lon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.97/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $8.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain but Lack Conviction; More All-Time Highs for Cattle
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday in what was mostly a technically driven corrective bounce. With South America’s weather still not perfect and various harvest/planting delays ongoing, there is a need to maintain some risk premium in prices. At the same time, however, overall supplies (es...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $0.8 from yes...
Livestock Industry Margins
Rising animal costs pressured beef and pork packer margins last week while offering a boost to livestock feeders. Most notably, feedlot margins improved significantly last week due to record-high fed cattle prices and weaker feed costs, though placement margins are still negative due to high fe...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Tariff Threats Ease; Cattle Surge to New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-tat trade war over the weekend. Sunday saw both the U.S. and Colombian presidents threaten each other’s country with 25 percent tariffs...
January Cattle on Feed Report Bullish
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.8 million head, 99 percent of last year. The smaller inventory was driven by increased marketings and decreased placements. The placement data was bullish, coming in...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latter. There were new contract highs, again, in cattle. Overall weakness was blamed on Argentina’s announced lower tax rates on commodity...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.865/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5575/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, down $10...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on January 1, 2025 – down 1 percent from January 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.64 million head, 3 percent below 2023. Marketings of fed cattle during December t...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still plenty of strength. Corn remains up about a nickel for the week, beans up more than 30-cents and while wheat dipped today, the large gains l...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish Feeder Pig Market
Bullish feeder pig prices could signal an expected return to improved profitability for hog production later this year. The 17 January National Direct Feeder Pig Report showed the weighted average (cash and formula) price of 10-12 pound early weaned pigs was $82.37 per head on...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8975/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.655/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $0.5 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat on Profit Taking, Tariff Talk; Cattle Hit $200 for First Time
Except for soymeal and the livestock markets, the CBOT was lower on Wednesday with traders booking profits and taking a more cautious approach after the recent runup in prices. Too, rhetoric out of the White House is keeping traders guessing on the possible application of and retaliation to var...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 January 2025 Last week, the market woke up from the prolonged Christmas holidays and surprisingly remained bullish against a stable export trend and high export duties. Growing duties may nip the bullish trend in the bud. Russian wheat can now freely go into...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were decidedly mixed last week with diverging trends developing across the industry. Beef packer margins gained for the second straight week thanks to stronger beef prices that offset higher fed cattle prices, while feedlot margins dipped for both placements and close...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Surge as Dollar Slides
The first full day of the Trump Presidency saw CBOT grain futures surge as the U.S. dollar pulled back sharply. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all saw strong buying influences after the long U.S. holiday weekend with traders seeing bullish news from several points. The first point was President Trum...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the biggest feature of the report was funds’ exchange of a small net short in soybeans for a modest long of 58,000 contracts, after they bought...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $2.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Market Gets a Bounce Ahead of Long Weekend
Commodity markets retraced some of the losses from Thursday, ending higher on Friday but not necessarily for the week. Corn is on a roll, nearing heights not seen in more than a year, but even cattle lost some of their bullish glow this week. 01172025MC_weeklychange.png 22.13 KBA key vect...
Cow-Calf Revenues Set Record in 2024, Profitability to Continue in 2025
The rally in feeder cattle and calf prices from September 2024 through mid-January 2025 provided cow-calf producers with near-record profitability for the 2024 calf crop. Higher prices for calves and feeder cattle, combined with record- or near-record high values for cull cows, pushed cow-calf...
Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake
Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than nothing, and something is all it takes to put brakes on a borderline market. The day’s trading closely tracked the overnight, with red showi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.19/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.4/short ton, down $7.6 f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 January 2025Traditionally during a prolonged holiday season, which in Russia does not coincide with the holiday season in most other countries because of the Russian Orthodox calendar, Russian grain trading volume is low. However, pricing forgot about the holiday s...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather
The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as fully priced into futures, which left markets to return to trading the South American weather outlooks and export trends. Both of these facto...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $2 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were broadly higher last week with the one exception being placement margins for feedlots and closeout margins for farrow-to-finish hog operations. Higher feeder animal costs drove expected margins for last week’s feeder cattle placements lower, with profits for the i...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ activity matched up with expectations and general market direction. Note that the data, which captures funds’ positions through Tuesday, 7 Jan...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trying to Find New Ranges
The CBOT saw more bullish influences on Monday from Friday’s WASDE report in which USDA slashed the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields. After considering the numbers and implications over the weekend, traders decided there was enough demand for both products and, if USDA’s latest numbers are cor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.8/short ton, up $9.5 from yester...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the Balkans and Ukraine saw unseasonably warm weather with moderate rainfall while Russia saw cold weather with light precipitation. The current forecasts call for cooler temperatures in France and Spain, but warmth in the UK and from Poland eastward (with the exce...
Market Commentary: Big Bullish Whopper
This last trading day of the first full trading week of 2025 came in like a whimper and went out with a bang. The trading day started with a notably sub-par Export Sales report from USDA. New commitments for wheat, corn, and soybeans all hit a marketing year low for export sales last week...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.705/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, up $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 27, 2024 – January 2, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 111,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 21 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 414,300 MT were up 9 percent f...
Market Commentary: Big Nothingburger
It was a good thing that futures markets closed early today given that there were very few inputs to guide movements. The U.S. government was closed in observance of President Jimmy Carter’s memorial, so reports like weekly Export Sales are delayed until tomorrow. Wall Street and the...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $299.3/short ton, down $1.5 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Market Conditions Transitioning from 2024 to 2025
Last year, cattle markets were driven by tight supplies of cattle, heavy carcass weights, low cow culling rates, higher input costs, more imports of feeder cattle, and the detection of New World Screwworm in Mexico in November. All were factors in record prices. The focus now turns to 2025, and...
Market Commentary: Comfortable, With Jitters
There was generally low volume in grains today as traders await USDA’s important reports on Friday. There is no reason to spend more money on fees or commissions after spending several days aligning with the perceived outcomes. At the same time, market noise does not completely stop and there i...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3625/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.8/short ton, down $2.7 fr...
Market Commentary: No Major Swings on More Positioning Ahead of WASDE
Corn opened lower but managed a quarter penny higher close, and hogs tried to follow cattle higher at the open but ended lower for a third session in a row, but the rest of the pack ended the day where it started with equally small changes.Fundamentals are helping corn, wheat and cattle, and so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.58/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.5/short ton, down $3.8 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Precipitation Forecasts Fall
The CBOT tried – and mostly succeeded – to reverse Friday’s selloff with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all turning higher to start the first full trading week of 2025. The fundamental catalysts for the day’s strength were the slide in the U.S. dollar, thanks to more trade-friendly (or at lea...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9775/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.3/short ton, down $1.3 from yes...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.6/short ton, down $11...
Market Commentary: 2025 Brings Corrections for Overbought Futures
The CBOT started 2025 on a relatively strong note, but any hints of bullishness were largely erased on Friday. Ag markets across the board fell sharply on the second trading day of the new year with weak export data, South American weather, and changes on taxes on trading profits driving much o...
2025 Poultry Outlook
The poultry sector is poised for production growth in 2025, but price trends are expected to vary across products. Broiler growers in the U.S. placed 191 million chicks for meat production last week, which was up 4 percent from the last week of December 2023. Cumulative placements from the...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 20-26, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 140,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 77 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 381,900 MT were up 2 percent from the previous...
Market Commentary: New Year, Same Trend - Corn and Beans Higher, Wheat Not
Corn and soybeans opened lower but quickly shifted back to positive territory. All three wheats were lower in overnight trading and pretty much traded lower all during the day session. There was good volume trading in HRW, cattle and feeders. March feeder cattle hit a new contract high. Lean ho...
Livestock Roundup: New Year Meat and Livestock Snapshot
Typically, prices for hams and the beef rib primal drop after Christmas, but this year, reduced slaughter has been more supportive of prices. What does that portend for 2025? Cattle slaughter last week was down 29.7 percent compared to the week prior and down 13.3 percent from year-ago le...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $319.9/short ton, up $3 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Year End Rally in Corn and Beans
The day’s trading started out hum and glum. Corn and soybean contracts moved modestly like their overnight closes and stayed marginal for most of the day. Soyoil was continuing its recent mostly negative run. Wheat never went anywhere important, high or low. Then there was a breakout late...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.515/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, up $5.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Year-End Maneuvering
On this penultimate day of trading in 2024, there were ups, downs and perhaps some profit-taking. Like the overnight, grains and soybeans opened higher this morning. However, by late morning most contracts dipped lower and then the soy complex, SRW and HRW managed to snag a higher close at the...
Cattle Market 2024 Retrospective and 2025 Outlook
This week marks the end of 2024, and the beginning of 2025. Indeed, 2024 was a notable year in the cattle markets with implications to carry over into next year. The U.S. cattle inventory entered 2024 at the lowest level since 1951, with the supply of feeder cattle outside feedlots...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, up $1.3 from...
Export Sales Bouy Grains; Argy Weather, Slow Exports Sink Soybeans
Grain markets were quiet in Friday’s overnight trade despite the bullish technical days they scored on Thursday. The Export Sales report – as one of the few fundamental updates available for the day – was influential in determining the grain markets’ direction for the day. That meant support fo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.465/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $310.5/short ton, down $4.4 from y...
Argentine Weather Emboldens CBOT Bulls
The CBOT found its way to higher ground on Thursday after an old-school hard opening with no overnight session to guide the market. Argentina’s weather is starting to become more impactful for grain futures as dryness persists into the mid-January forecast, which could disrupt early corn and so...
Livestock Roundup: Butterfat Boom
As WPI reported on 2 July, USDA released its proposed Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) reforms; the final proposal was released in early November 2024. This final proposal will now go to producer referenda in each of the 11 FMMO regions. Producers whose milk was pooled in January...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314.9/short ton, up $13.3 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 December 2024Last week, the Russian grain markets showed the first signs of the holiday season with rather weak trading. Russian grain markets and especially export business will adjust to the Christmas season globally which will then enter Russian Orthodox Christ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7525/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Consolidate in Pre-Christmas Trade
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal closed higher ahead of the Christmas holiday, driven by short covering, technical factors, and increasing dryness in Argentina. Trading volume was predictably light on Christmas Eve, as traders showed little interest in adding risk during the seasonal trading slowdow...
Livestock Industry Margins
Both beef and pork packer margins improved last week on stronger spot meat demand and pricing while producer margins showed mixed trends. Margins for feedlot placements, weaned hog placements, and pigs farrowed last week all fell from the prior week. In the case of feedlots and wean-to-finish h...
Hogs and Pigs with Bearish Undertones
On 23 December, USDA released its quarterly (Sept-Nov) Hogs & Pigs report and it was bearish. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75.845 million head, up 0.5 percent year-on-year and slightly ahead of the pre-report consensus estimates.12242024dave1.png 41.47 KBThe typica...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Corn followed the wheat market higher with its own support from the strong export program as USDA reported more “flash” export sales Monday. S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.695/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $4.2 from yest...
Total versus Change in Pork Consumption
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was 11.982 million head on December 1, 2024 in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. This inventory was slightly below the December 1, 2023 total of 12.016 million head.Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.80 million head, 4 percent below 2023. Marke...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
December Cattle on Feed Report in Line with Expectations
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 12 million head, the same as last year, as expected. Placements also were as expected, and marketings were slightly above November 2023. 12202024dj.png 22.92 KBNovember marketings as a percent of...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.745/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302.2/short ton, up $11.2 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not oversold technically, but with values sitting on or near major support levels, many traders figured this was the time to take short risk off t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.63/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $4.9 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.9 percent of last year’s 12 million head. The range of estimates was between 99.4 percent and 100.3 percent of 1 December 2023. 12192...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.5175/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $7.7...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and wheat flirting with contract lows. Not even the news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations and Spain...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7675/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Pork packers were the only sector of the livestock industry to see significant improvement in profit margins last week. In contrast, beef packers saw margins fall by another $35/head as the sharp rally in fed cattle prices offset mild gains in beef values. For feedlots, expected profits for las...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.82/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $0.7 from yeste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume declined this week and, barring some surprise, will be even lower through the holidays. There was nothing unlucky about Friday the 13th, unl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.2/short ton, down $3.3 f...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be heading into the new year. It’s no secret that fed cattle supplies remain tight and that the pipeline is low amid the ban on feeder cattle import...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all on the low end of expectations and below last week’s values, which prompted traders to abandon (temporarily, at le...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish WASDE 2025 Outlook
This week’s WASDE held steady the price outlook for 2024 fed steers and broilers and increased hog prices slightly. The fed cattle price has generally been forecast up all year, except for a drop in the September estimates. 12122024dj.png 29.46 KBPrices for all species are expected to inc...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm Following Bullish WASDE; Cattle Extend Rally
Grain futures continued to find support from Tuesday’s bullish WASDE report with corn, wheat, and soybeans all trading higher, though corn futures dipped into the red during the final minutes of trading. Traders followed through on the bullish signals from the WASDE as well as increasingly bull...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6325/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.955/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.9 fro...
Market Commentary: WASDE Increases Corn, Soyoil Demand; Cattle Rally on Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the WASDE as funds were cautiously covering shorts and paring back risk before the holidays. The WASDE proved to be slightly bullish corn and mostly neutral soybeans and wheat, proving the short-covering trend to have been a good idea. Aside from the WASD...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $292/short ton, up $2.4 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
The livestock packing sector saw mixed trends in profitability over the past week with packer margins improving for both the beef and pork sectors. Beef packing margins have been negative for five weeks now and hog packing margins in the red for three weeks, both of which present a threat to pr...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Ahead of the WASDE
The CBOT saw mostly WASDE-motivated short covering on Monday with funds scaling back short positions in wheat and soybeans and cautiously extending longs in the corn market. Fresh news was light for the day and traders were mostly focused on adjusting positions ahead of the WASDE. The weather r...
Red Meat and Broiler Trade
October meat and livestock trade data was released on Friday. Beef exports are down 2.6 percent at 2.5 billion pounds, following lower U.S. beef production (down 0.4 percent) and higher prices. October exports to Canada fell 23.7 percent. Exports to Japan were flat year to date at 543 million p...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday season. Corn’s range-bound trade these past two weeks prompted funds to shed 13 percent of their long position in the market and have liquida...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.4/short ton, down $3.7 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Higher on Export Data
The CBOT moved higher on Thursday after the weekly Export Sales report provided bullish demand-side inputs for the major commodities. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil futures all pushed higher for the day with export demand seeming to pick up and remain above expectations in the case of corn,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from yesterda...
Livestock Roundup: Feeder Cattle Prices
Recent rains have been supportive of feeder cattle prices. The moisture has been a catalyst to prices given the smaller overall supply of calves with drought no longer pulling ahead of feeder cattle placements. This development comes on top of the normal seasonal pattern of high calf prices thi...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat; Cattle Contemplate their Direction
The CBOT continued its mostly range-bound trading affair on Wednesday with the ag markets seeing little fresh news to drive price action one way or another. Wheat futures hit new contract lows but recovered from that selloff to end slightly higher, though the market seems committed to staying n...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8375/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.5 from y...