It was a risk-off day in both commodity futures and financials. Investors like the likely outcome of the election, especially if a President-elect Biden an...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.0925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...
British Value Judgements; Tasking ERS; Cultural and Food Sovereignty
British Value Judgements In a Chatham House speech this week, UK Secretary for International Trade Liz Truss made some commonsense statements about trade p...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Buys U.S. Soyoil; Shortage of Containers
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Last week was another good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans and soybean products. If the pace of sales and exports conti...
PM Post - Eventual Retest of Bottom
THE OPEN Jan beans: 15 higher Dec meal: 450 higher Dec soyoil: 1.03 higher Dec corn: 8 3/4 higher Dec wheat: 12 higher The ma...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Breeding Pig Restocking Efforts 0n Track Through the first nine months of 2020, China has imported 15,400 head, an increase of 1,40...
Technical Views - Onward and Upward
SPREADS Jan crush trades to 1.28c/bu while oilshare is at 31.11%. Spreads are firm again, with Dec/Dec corn inverse trading up to 16 1/2c from 11 3/4...
AM Outlook - New Highs
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board as funds buy anew yesterday. Beans place new ctr highs with January over $11.00 with rumors that Chi...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 597,100 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 20 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from the prior 4-week avera...
A World Full of Questions
At this writing the results of Tuesday’s U.S. election are still uncertain. Joe Biden holds an electoral vote lead over President Donald Trump, but t...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on Dry Weather; China Blocks Aussie Wheat
The soy complex was the upside leader Wednesday with dry weather in South America sparking a 20-cent rally in soybean futures. Soyoil was helped higher by...
Global Impacts of Election; Local Impacts of Election
Global Impacts of Election At this juncture, there is no definitive conclusion to yesterday’s U.S. presidential vote, but Joe Biden has the edge. Con...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0525/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.06/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
Soybeans Export Picture at Risk
U.S. wheat and corn exports for their current respective marketing years are on track with the prior year and ahead of their five-year averages. U.S...
PM Post - Bull Soy; Otherwise Sideways
THE OPEN Jan beans: 5 3/4 higher Dec meal: 4.40 higher Dec soyoil: 10 higher Dec corn: 1/4 higher Dec wheat: 1 1/2 lower The market...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 - 30 October 2020 Russian domestic wheat, barley and corn prices kept growing at different rates depending on regions. One of the...
Technical Views - Mostly Higher
SPREADS Jan crush trades firmer to 1.28c/bu while oilshare trades to 31.11%. Dec/March corn trades weaker again, out to 6c carry from 5c. The D...
AM Outlook - Post Election Steady
GOOD MORNING, Prices this morning are firmer with gains in the soy complex but grains treading water. The nearby corn spreads have moved out to a car...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday on Shrinking Corn, Soybean Yields
Election day is here for the U.S. and both CBOT and macro markets seemed to take encouragement from that fact. The dollar moved sharply lower on election u...
GI Attack; Natural GMO’s
GI Attack Transatlantic relations under a President Biden may be less verbally kinetic than under President Trump but U.S. agriculture is not going to go d...
McRib-O-Nomics and Pork Supply
McDonald’s has announced that it will bring back its seasonal and iconic McRib sandwich this year. The McRib has almost a cultish following. In fact,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.01/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.08/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Ja...
Farm Income and Presidents
Since it is election day in the U.S., we look at how farm income has performed under various presidents. Presidents receive the credit or blame for the ove...
PM Post - Turnaround Bounce
THE OPEN January beans: 12 12 higher Dec meal: 2.00 higher Dec soyoil: 58 higher Dec corn: 3 higher Dec wheat: 4 higher The m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkey has protested to the WTO about the Philippines extending its antidumping duties on Tur...
Technical Views - Uptrend for the Day
SPREADS Jan. crush trades 1.24c/bu while oilshare mounts a rally back over 31.0% to close at 31.10%. Spreads are higher today, with Dec/Dec corn inve...
AM Outlook - Trading Ranges Ignore Election
GOOD MORNING, Finally......election day is here. Many of the markets have gyrated to the unknowns of this event, and Ags are not immune. ...
Fiscal Policy and the Federal Budget
With one day left before the 2020 election, one issue hasn’t received any attention, but it may be the biggest challenge facing policy makers startin...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Crude Oil Rally; Row Crops Flat; Hogs Look Bearish
The CBOT traded a mixed day with wheat futures posting a strong rally and the soy complex falling back after a strong start. Corn futures were under pressu...
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises; Big is Better; Eating American
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises If the polls are correct, Joe Biden is elected president tomorrow and the question is what changes besides civility? Loo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s weather patterns remain warmer and drier than average for the next week. The dry weather will allow for faster planting...
Strategically Handicapped
The EU used the Uruguay Round’s obligations for greater disciplines to transition EU agriculture away from the previous policy of higher internal pri...
PM Post - Funds up, Technicals down
THE OPEN January beans: 7 lower December meal: 1.80 higher December soyoil: 33 lower December corn: 4 3/4 lower December wheat:&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Corn has become the darling of Argentina’s local markets this week. Prices have been volatile with swings averaging $7-8/MT. Despite the volatil...
Technical Views - Defending Bottoms
SPREADS Jan. crush trades higher to 1.34c/bu while oilshare trades to 30.84%. Look for higher crush values to underpin meal, while weaker energ...
AM Outlook - Adjusting Lower
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board as profit-taking continues to hit the market based on better global rainfall, long fund positions, and rece...
Election Preview
The U.S. election is in just a few days (Tuesday, 3 November). Virtually any outcome is possible. The range is so wide because of the close popular vote ma...
GSP Leverage; Nationalism Fails Tech; Nationalism Fails Agriculture
GSP Leverage If the Trump Administration gets voted out of office next week, it will not be without having reset U.S. trade policy. The latest move is susp...
Market Commentary: End-User Buying Supports CBOT; Cattle Rally
The final trading day of October saw few tricks or treats for ag commodities ahead of Halloween. The CBOT traded mostly lower in low-volume trade with corn...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.985/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. J...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
EU Plant Protein Aspirations
EU policymakers would like for the Continent to be more self-sufficient in plant proteins, whose demand growth has been robust the world over. However, agr...
PM Post - Risk-off and Stronger Dollar
THE OPEN January beans: 7 3/4 higher December meal: 1.30 higher December soyoil: 30 higher December corn: steady December wheat:&nb...
Technical Views - Recovery Day
SPREADS Jan crush trades 1.27c/bu while oilshare trades to 30.79%. Cash markets are breaking a bit this morning which is also pressuring the sp...
AM Outlook - Bull Bounce
GOOD MORNING, The markets bounce this AM led once again by the soy complex. Beans are leading the way higher. Brazil continues to grow its bean...
Market Commentary: Overblown COVID Concerns
The market was called lower and it opened that way but then spent the rest of the session trading both directions before closing mixed. The mindset was to...
Livestock Round Up: Adjustments for Beef
Last week’s Cattle on Feed report shows there are a lot of cattle in the pipeline while the sector is struggling to figure out where holiday beef dem...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Dry Bean Problems for Crushers; China Soy Crush
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated the week ending 22 October was a fairly good one for exporters of U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.985/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - Mission of the Market
THE OPEN January beans: 1 lower December meal: 1.20 lower December soyoil: 20 lower December dorn: 3 lower December wheat: 6...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 743,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 54 percent from the prior 4-week average...
Technical Views - Pullback Continues
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.21c/bu while oilshare trades up to 31.0%. Spreads are weaker with Dec/Dec corn trading down to 11 1/4c inverse from a m...
AM Outlook - Capital Sucking Sound
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue lower as funds are taking money out of the markets on technical considerations as more bearish formations create a down-turn,...
Ag Review - October 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at the continued impact of the global...
What Lies Ahead for U.S.-China Relations
Amid the second surge of coronavirus infections, the U.S. presidential election is next Tuesday, 3 November. No matter who wins, the election results will...
Market Commentary: Markets Fall on Macro-Weakness; WPI 2021/22 Outlook
The CBOT started the day sharply lower as overnight selling pressured corn, wheat, and soybeans to double-digit losses. Yesterday’s day-session weakn...
Post-Trump Outcomes; Food but Not Income; Between Elephants
Post-Trump Outcomes Analysts in Washington are war gaming the possible aftermath of next Tuesday’s presidential election and finding nothing good. On...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.015/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.0875/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Organic Requires Scale
Advocates for organic food in the U.S. lament that acreage devoted to organic food production is expanding at a slower pace than the increase in the number...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 – 23 October 2020 Russian domestic market wheat prices continued to increase; barley and corn prices started growing very f...
PM Post - Lower Prices May Attract Buyers
THE OPEN Jan beans: 19 1/2 lower Dec meal: 10.60 lower Dec soyoil: 79 lower Dec corn: 12 lower Dec wheat: 12 3/4 lower The ma...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Meat Imports on Track for Record Year Although the pandemic and the ongoing trade war with the U.S. have caused many challenges wit...
Technical Views - Downward on Risk-off
SPREADS Jan crush trades down to 1.16c/bu while oilshare strengthens to 31.22%. The corn inverse weakens with Dec/Dec trading down to 18 3/4c from 24...
AM Outlook - Reversal Means Top in Place
GOOD MORNING, Weaker macro markets, overbought conditions, and too long funds are resulting in lower markets across the board, and perhaps one of the best...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Post New Highs; Macro Jitters Pull Markets Lower
The CBOT started higher with corn and soybeans posting new contract highs. Goldman Sachs issued a bullish commodity outlook based on Chinese buying and a t...
Post-Election Dynamics
Odds are that Joe Biden becomes the next U.S. President, which prompts some understanding of its implications for the agriculture sector. Trade: The...
Ag Demand for Energy
The Energy Information Administration’s energy outlook for this fall and winter factors in agriculture demand. Propane is expected to be down, diesel...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.16/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.1575/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&...
Monopolistic Impacts
One of the charges by populists in the agricultural sector is that consolidation has led to monopolistic conditions, or at least a monopsonist situation. O...
PM Post - Some Chips Off Top; Watch Bottoms
THE OPEN Jan. beans: 3/4 lower Dec. meal: .10 lower Dec. soyoil: 18 lower Dec corn: 1 3/4 higher Dec wheat: 2 higher Prices begin t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA An atlas of Global Surface Water has just been published which shows the changes in surface w...
AM Outlook - Rolling On
GOOD MORNING, Prices remain cautiously mixed, with bulls eyeing key technical spots on the charts. Corn prices moved to a new trading range high for...
Technical Views - Mixed to Cloudy
SPREADS Jan crush trades to 1.37c/bu while oilshare trades at a steady 30.73%. Corn spreads remain very firm with Dec/March trading into new contract...
China Phase One and Hog Inventory
Today, USDA released the latest interim report from USDA and USTR on the Phase One China trade agreement. The report notes that “Chapter Three of the...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls and So Does Wheat; Soybeans Post New High While Corn Stalls
Markets were called to open lower based on macro weakness and rain in the forecast for the U.S. Plains and parts of Russia. That outlook held true but sell...
China versus USA; Post-COVID Attitude
Respondents to our last survey regarding the advantages of China versus the USA could have been skewed by the nationality of respondents. One interpretatio...
U.S. Wheat Planted and Harvested
During this winter wheat planting period in the U.S., it is important to note that the area planted to wheat has declined in recent years. This is due in p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.2/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission lowered the region’s corn and soybean 2020 yields in its 26 October monthly bulletin. The EU corn yield was rev...
PM Post - Bending not Breaking
THE OPEN January beans: 3 lower December meal: 3.80 lower December soyoil: 46 higher December corn: 3 1/2 lower December wheat:&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Last week, rains finally came to Argentina with good coverage over the agricultural areas. The precipitation brought some relief for the wheat and co...
Technical Views - Pullback on Record Exports
SPREADS Jan crush trades to 1.29c/bu while oilshare firms to 31.38% from recent lows closer to 30.0%. Dec/March corn trades into even from 1 1/2c car...
AM Outlook - Correction Week
GOOD MORNING, Strong cash markets, weather, and the unknown quantities of corn demand from China continues to underpin the markets in general. Demand...
Market Commentary: WPI 2021 Acreage Forecasts; China Quota News Drives Buying
The CBOT opened in-line with expectations with buy grains/sell oilseeds trade developing early. Some bull spreading developed between soyoil/soymeal as the...
Cattle on Feed
• U.S. Cattle on Feed up 4% at 11.7 million head on October 1, 2020. The inventory was 4 percent above October 1, 2019. This is the highest October 1...
WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent; EU Food Fun
WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent Bad: The U.S. Congressional Research Service has concluded that trade war payments and COVID relief payments to farmers have likel...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Record October Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 11.7 million head, that is 103...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1925/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.3275/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. N...
Holder of Stocks
With potentially smaller crops this coming season in South America due to delayed planting schedules, the question is how this will impact major ending sto...
PM Post - Bean Exhaustion After Good Run
THE OPEN January beans: 1 lower December meal: 3.30 higher December soyoil: 14 lower December corn: 2 higher December wheat:&...
Technical Views - Still Working Higher
SPREADS Jan crush trades firmer at 1.28c/bu while oilshare trades back down to 30.37%. Spreads are firmer with Dec/Dec corn now inverting...
AM Outlook - More of the Same
GOOD MORNING, This week featured further contract highs and new highs for most of the markets on trading ranges. Funds will head out longer than a we...
Market Commentary: Beans and Meal Hot; White Wheat Too?
Open interest is rising in commodities and Goldman Sachs says that with inflation likely to return, the outlook is bullish commodities. While agriculture i...
October Cold Storage Report
The attached PDF shows WPI's summary analysis and interpretation for the latest Cold Storage report, published 22 October 2020 by the USDA. Brief...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.2275/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
COVID II Policy; Meet Meat; Needing Liberalization
COVID II Policy Financial markets continue to be confused about the direction of the economy amidst a new surge in COVID cases and political uncertainty. T...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Brazil’s Soy Tariffs; U.S. Soy Supply and Demand
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report once again indicated exporters made large sales of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil in t...
PM Post - Demand Driven
THE OPEN January beans: 1/2 higher December meal: 1.70 higher December soyoil: 31 higher December corn: 3/4 higher Dece...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 367,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...
CFTC Approves Commodity Position Limits
One common thread running through part of the history of grain trading has been the subject of federally set limits on the size of positions that a trader...
Technical Views - Only Wheat Called Lower
SPREADS Dec crush trades to new highs at 1.30c/bu while oilshare is steady at 30.64%. Dec/March corn trades into new highs at 1 3/4c from 3c, while D...
AM Outlook - Overbought but Well-bid
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the session lower as rains fell in SA, and futures sport overbought chart signals. However, once again pullbacks were sh...
Future Volatility; Special Goose
Future Volatility As if the past few years have not been tumultuous enough, markets must now brace for what could be intensified volatility in the weeks ah...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls, Grains Rise; Cattle Look Undervalued
The CBOT once again opened as called with strength across the board. At one point this morning, every major ag commodity was in the green. By day’s e...
Equity in Crops
Dave Juday pointed out in a recent analysis that the Midwest and the South have reaped the most in Market Facilitation Payments (MFP) not because of politi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.2975/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nb...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Inflation Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2019 For the first time since July 2019, China’s food prices climbed by less than doubl...
PM Post - Lofty, Overbought, No Tops
THE OPEN January beans: 8 1/4 higher December meal: 6.80 higher December soyoil: 2 higher December corn: 3 3/4 higher December whea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 - 16 October 2020 Domestic market wheat prices grew significantly; barley, corn and rye prices also increased but at a smaller ra...
Technical Views - Upside Follow-through
SPREADS Dec crush remains strong at 1.27c/bu while oilshare trades at 30.61%. Bullspreads remain strong with Dec/Dec corn inverting to 12 1/2c from 8...
AM Outlook - Rising Premiums
GOOD MORNING, Bull market price action continues as funds purchase the market based on technical strength. Most of the markets except for soyoil cont...
Market Commentary: Drought Drives Wheat Higher; Corn, Soybeans Firm Amid Harvest
The CBOT continued most of the trends that developed yesterday with funds remaining net buyers in corn, wheat, and soybeans. Grains, especially wheat, led...
CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments
CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) w...
Economic Recovery Officially V-Shaped
On 29 October, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) issues the Q3 2020 GDP report, it likely will show the economy grew at more than 33 percent, base...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0875/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.32/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. N...
Pasta versus Bread
Wheat is the largest and possibly oldest consumed food grain in the world, but its future is slowing down. Known as the staff of life, about 50 percent mor...
PM Post - Liquidity Influx and Momentum
THE OPEN January beans: 6 higher December meal: 3.00 higher December soyoil: 40 higher December corn: 1/2 higher December whe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Reports in Nigeria say that some imported maize has arrived but that the moisture content is too hi...
AM Outlook - Still Building Support
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board as funds continue to buy the market. Beans are leading the way up with continued rumors that China i...
Technical Views - Firm Support
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.27c/b while oilshare trades to 30.16%. Dec/March corn trades from 4 3/4c carry out to 5 1/2c. Dec/De...
Market Commentary: Grain Rallies Continue; Cattle and Deferred Hogs Plummet
The CBOT was higher again on Monday with grains leading the way. Corn and wheat futures showed pronounced strength while soybeans were mostly along for the...
Brazil’s Corn and Soy Tariffs; Trade Facilitation
On Friday we commented on Brazil’s livestock and poultry demand potential for DDGS co-produced by the growing trend of corn ethanol production in Bra...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.27/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close...
Lack of Tourism Hurts Food
COVID-based economic lockdowns have broadly hurt economies around the world. Restaurant, entertainment, and airline sectors have been particularly wounded...
Denuded Logic; Tax Consequences
Denuded Logic A key argument by some Europeans in both opposing palm oil imports, voting against a trade agreement with Brazil, and seeking self-sufficienc...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Market Overview It has been a hard week for the Argentina grain markets. The macroeconomic situation is becoming more complicated every day and hurting bus...
PM Post - Choppy Profit-taking
THE OPEN January beans: 2 1/2 higher December meal: 6.20 higher December soyoil: 31 lower December corn: 4 higher December wheat:&n...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia plans to bring an additional 6 million hectares (Mha) of land into agricultural production by 2024, per the country’s ag m...
Technical Views - Subject to Pullbacks
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.26c/bu while oilshare trades below 31.0% to new lows of 30.40%. Crush continues to be very strong, support...
Am Outlook - Vulnerable to Breaks
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with soyoil futures lower against higher markets elsewhere. Wheat leads the rally, trading into new highs...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New High; La Nina Increasingly Bullish
Wheat, corn, and soybeans all opened higher, as called, and posted fresh highs for their respective rallies. Only wheat, however, was able to hold gains as...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Friday Intrigue
Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. I...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.2525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
World Food Day Perspective
Commodity prices have been on the rise and most of the attention until this week has been on the supply side with worries about weather. In recent days it...
Thinking About the Coming Supply of Brazilian DDGS
Back in 2013, under the U.S. sugar program, sugar refiners and processors were headed toward forfeiting more than 350,000 MT of sugar under loan, which tri...
PM Post - Vertical Inevitably Turns Choppy
THE OPEN January beans: 6 1/2 higher December meal: 1.40 higher December soyoil: 32 higher December corn: 3 1/4 higher December whe...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 528,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were unchanged from the previous week, but up 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.&nb...
Technical Views - Pullbacks will get Bought
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.23c/bu while oilshare trades below 31.0% to new lows of 30.89%. Spreads remain strong with Dec/Dec trading to a 12c in...
AM Outlook - Bulls Roll On
GOOD MORNING, Prices made new highs for meal, corn, and wheat as the bull market rolls on. Corn basis is firm, as are cash markets across the world.&...
Market Commentary: Attracting Outside Capital
There were lots of large worries in the big picture but not so much in agriculture today as it carried on in a mostly bullish affair. The macro markets are...
Livestock Round Up: Fauci Talks Turkey
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has suggested that American’s may have to “bite the b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0375/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.1825/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Biden Implications to Phase One; Inequitable Compensation; Apples and Oranges
Biden Implications to Phase One At this juncture, China needs soybeans, corn and other products, and the U.S. is currently the lowest cost supplier of some...
Oilseed Highlights: China Soybean Purchases; Renewable Diesel; NOPA Crush; India Soy
China Continues to Buy U.S. Soybeans Because of the Columbus Day holiday on Monday USDA will not issue its weekly export sales report until tomorrow. Howev...
PM Post - Wall Street Red; Chicago Green
THE OPEN November beans: 15 3/4 lower December meal: 2.00 lower December soyoil: 98 lower December corn: 2 lower December wheat: 2...
What a Difference a Year Can Make
In some manner every annual crop cycle is different from its predecessors even if those differences are small enough to fade from memory over time. However...
Technical Views - Lower, except Wheat
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.17/bu while oilshare trades down to 31.24%. Corn spreads continue strong with Dec/Dec now inverting to 4c from 2...
AM Outlook - Mixed on Risk-off
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with all lower except wheat. Nervous longs are exiting soyoil and beans on weak overnight price action.&n...
Goose and the Gander; EU Green Leakage
Goose and the Gander President Donald Trump says he wants to make the U.S. a manufacturing powerhouse no longer dependent on China. Those in agriculture ha...
Argentina DET Trouble
Argentina has used the differential export tax for many years to favor the export of processed soyoil and soymeal over soybeans. The policy supports an ind...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Technical Buying; Hogs Post 9-Month High
The CBOT opened in-line with expectations with continued firmness in corn and soybeans after USDA announced another round of daily export sales. Wheat init...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.965/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Feed Demand Continues to Climb as Hog Industry Recovers According to the latest survey results from China’s National Feed Ind...
PM Post - Carving Out Technical Ranges
THE OPEN November beans: 6 higher December meal: 3.50 higher December soyoil: 4 higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat: ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 - 9 October 2020 Russian domestic market prices for wheat and barley kept growing and corn prices also grew significantly. Export...
Technical Views - Back in Ranges
SPREADS Dec crush trades at 1.10c/bu while oilshare trades at 31.86% as meal gains on soyoil this morning. Dec/March corn firms into 7 1/2c from 8c,...
AM Outlook - Mixed in Favor of Beans/Meal
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed to begin the session with beans and meal higher, lower elsewhere. Rumors continue that China is in the market for bean...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn, Soybeans; La Nina Bullish Wheat
It was a classic Turnaround Tuesday at the CBOT with yesterday’s weakness attracting end user demand. As WPI’s Jody Lefcourt noted earlier toda...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.9125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.94/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
The Legislative Sausage Making of COVID Relief
The on-again, off-again negotiations over the next round of COVID relief entered a new phase this week. The White House offered a compromise $1.8 trillion...
Kiwi Future; Inflation/Future China-U.S.
Kiwi Future New Zealanders go to the polls on 17 October and while the popular Labour Party is expected to easily retain control of the government, agricul...
Worse than Agriculture
The agriculture sector is under strong criticism for its harm to the environment. Multilateral disciplines on agricultural subsidies are considered too wea...
PM Post - Bulls Bounce; Bears Lie Flat
THE OPEN November beans: 5 higher December meal: 1.80 higher December soyoil: 13 higher December corn: 3/4 higher December wheat: 1 1/4 h...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s Consumer Price Index for “urban consumers” is said to have increased 3.8...
AM Outlook - Turnaround but Two Sides
GOOD MORNING, Turn-around Tuesday is here on cue, with yesterday's break finding good pricing and buying interest. Good bull markets typically have h...
Technical Views - Not all Turnaround
SPREADS Dec. crush trades 1.11c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.18% , popping back over the 32.0% level. Dec/Dec corn spreads are still firm trading f...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Lower as Weak Longs Exit; Wheat Survives Profit Taking
Certainty over U.S. production and tentative trade overnight set the stage for long profit taking and a weaker CBOT to start the week. The soy complex sold...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.89/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9425/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...
Chemophobia Will Bite Back; Watching the Hen House; Captive Markets
Chemophobia will Bite Back Chemophobic activists in Europe are demanding that pesticides banned from use in Europe also be prohibited from manufacture and...
CFAP 2 Payments Now Flowing
The second round of the CFAP program – i.e. CFAP 2 – has already begun making payments. WPI provided a summary on how the program was structure...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European weather conditions remain concerning for 2021 winter crops. While eastern Europe and western Ukraine are slated for rains in t...
Wheat-Rice Substitution
In the classic position of a wheat exporting nation, consumers that have traditionally consumed rice as a food grain ultimately become wheat consumers. Thi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Weather conditions continue to work against the Argentine wheat crop. Rains are still absent and soil moisture levels are depleting rapidly. Forty-se...
PM Post - Wheat Defies Profit-taking Elsewhere
THE OPEN November beans: 6 lower December meal: 2.70 lower December soyoil: 3 lower December corn: 1/2 higher December wheat: ...
Technical Views - Bean Weakness
SPREADS Dec. crush trades up to 1.06c/bu while oishare trades to 31.98%. Dec/Dec corn remains firm with prices trading into 1 1/4c from 1 3/4c...
AM Outlook - Back to Weather Watching
GOOD MORNING, The USDA report is out of the way, and the numbers were bullish for beans, and neutral to bullish corn. Wheat found some surprising bea...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybean Supplies Cut; Wheat Falls on Global Stocks
USDA offered a mix of surprises and as-expected numbers in the October WASDE. The agency, as expected, offered lower corn and soybean production figures fo...
WASDE Livestock and Dairy
Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s combined red meat and broiler production forecast down 1.5 percent from 2019, and down 2.8 percent from the March W...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Big on Stimulus; Appropriate Sanction; Real Work Changes
Big on Stimulus As is the raucousness of Donald Trump, he was for an economic stimulus package with the Democrats before he was against it and now is for i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.95/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9375/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 32.5 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
The soybean meal price is forecast at $335.00 per short ton, up $20.00. ...
Toward Virtuous Agriculture
Agriculture is being singled out for its deleterious impacts on the environment. The current popular target is deforestation, largely for its adverse impac...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced ending stocks of U.S. soybeans for the 2020/21 season and decreased global ending stocks: U.S. soybean supplies for 2020/21 are forecast...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced ending stocks of corn for the 2020/21 season and decreased global ending stocks: U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.722 billion bush...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks: U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels...
PM Post - Neutral to Bullish
THE OPEN November beans: 6 3/4 higher December meal: 3.00 higher December soyoil: 69 higher December corn: 4 1/2 higher December wh...
AM Outlook - Day of Truth
GOOD MORNING, Price action has been guided for most of the week by current demand and speculation about today’s October WASDE report. Based on where...
Technical Views - Bullish Ahead of WASDE
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.04c/bu while oilshare is firming to 31.71%. Bull spreads remain firm, with Dec/Dec corn trading into 2 3/4c from 5c, w...
Livestock Round Up: Exports Help Hog Prices
Pork export sales hit a yearly high for the week ending 1 October at 60,200 tons, which was 152 percent of the four-week average. China bought close to hal...
Market Commentary: Drip, Drip, Drip into the Red
The major markets were called higher at the open and that is where they went. Soybeans and soymeal actually hit contract highs today. Wheat was the first t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.87/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.&...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 530,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 5 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. &nb...
Experience versus Korea; Breaking the GMO Boundary
Experience versus Korea The runoff to be the next leader of the WTO is between Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and South Korea’s Yoo Myung-hee. B...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentina Export Taxes; Brazilian Dryness
U.S. Soy Export Sales Today’s USDA export sales report once again indicated exporters had great success selling U.S. soybeans in the week ending 1 Oc...
PM Post - All Upward Until Profit-Taking
THE OPEN November Beans: 16 1/4 higher December Meal: 9.40 higher December Soyoil: 14 higher December Corn: 4 higher December Wheat...
Dalian Futures Market Analysis
Monthly Summary September Surge Driven by Soybean Complex, Palm Olein, and Corn With China’s economy rapidly returning to pre-COVID-19 levels in the...
Technical Views - New Highs
SPREADS Bullspreads remain strong along with crush. Dec crush gaps higher top 1.13.39c/bu while oilshare struggles at 31.08%. Dec/Dec corn trad...
Wheat’s New Story
Here is an interesting riddle: With USDA likely to increase its already record large 2020/21 world wheat production estimate a few MMT in Friday’s Oc...
AM Outlook - The Bull's Camp
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trade upward into the report with technical momentum continuing in the bull's camp. All markets except soyoil post n...
China In-Country Analysis
Due to the holiday closures in China this week, China In-Country Analysis will be delayed. ...
Vice Presidential Debate; Chasing Europe on Carbon
Vice Presidential Debate Mike Pence debates challenger Kamala Harris tonight for the right to be vice president over the next four years. Some will be look...
Wheat Less Symmetrical
Cash corn prices in the U.S., Argentina and Brazil tend to move in similar ways, with Argentina showing brief instances of outlier status. However, compar...
Market Commentary: Money Fuels Rally; CBOT Trades Higher Into October WASDE
CBOT markets traded both sides of unchanged overnight but were higher heading into the morning’s open. The day trade saw prices immediately move sha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.8875/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - Sharply Higher Targets
THE OPEN November beans: 9 higher December meal: 3.50 higher December soyoil: 30 higher December corn: 4 higher December wheat:&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 September - 2 October 2020 Domestic Russian market prices for wheat and barley grew significantly, but at a slower rate than the...
Technical Views - Arrows are Up
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.05c/bu while oilshare trades town to 31.58%. Bullspreads are firm, with Dec/Dec corn trading into 7 3/4c from 10...
AM Outlook - Fresh Highs
GOOD MORNING, Bullish chart formations continue to trigger technical fund buying activity. Meal values continue to lead over soyoil, which repr...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Sharply Higher; WPI 2020/21 Outlook
Soybeans and corn led the CBOT higher with fund buying continuing to fuel the bullish fire. Upside breakouts on the soybean, corn, and wheat charts led to...
Gasoline and Ethanol Use Forecast Down for 2021
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its October Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) cutting ethanol, biodiesel, and gasoline use projections...
Pick Your Poison
Given China’s pork shortage and its concurrent sensitivity to imports, some have speculated that pork has been entering the country, or is poised to,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9275/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Demand Stimulates Bulls
THE OPEN November beans: 14 1/4 higher December meal; 5.50 higher December soyoil: 56 higher December corn: 4 1/4 higher Dece...
Technical Views - Upside Pressure
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 99.36c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.18%. Spreads are firmer with Dec/Dec corn narrowing into 11 1/4c from 12 1/4c.&nbs...
AM Outlook - Weather Premium
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly higher led by beans, and a good recovery in soyoil futures. The catalyst for higher trade in beans is the weather, wh...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Jordan reports wheat stocks on hand of 1.35 MMT – enough, they say, to cover all requir...
Market Commentary: Wheat Continues Drought-Fueled Rally; Pork Market Unseasonably Strong
The CBOT opened as called with bull spreading between grains/soybeans. Wheat was the upside leader as production risks are growing for the Northern Hemisph...
Is the Latest Milk Price Rally the Last for the Year?
After inching their way up last week, Class III milk futures broke $20/cwt and stayed there today. Cheese prices remain strong, but with a big gap in the c...
Winning Pig Production
China is the world’s largest pork producer with output double the size of the second biggest pig maker, the EU. ASF caused the Middle Kingdom’s...
Ballot Initiatives; Coronavirus Money; Middle Kingdom Challenges
Ballot Initiatives Elections in the U.S. bring with them ballot initiatives, either initiated by citizens or the legislatures. This year there are at least...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.795/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.8425/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to suffer from drought from the center of the wheat-growing region to the north of the country. Last wee...
European Market Analysis
Regional News More favorable weather patterns have developed over Europe and western Ukraine in recent weeks. Last week saw widespread rainfall acros...
PM Post - As Called For Now
THE OPEN November beans: 1/4 higher December meal: 1.90 lower Dec soyoil: 40 higher Dec corn: 1 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 10 higher The markets ope...
Technical Views - Higher Except Meal
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.02c/bu while oilshare trades below 32.0% to 31.38%. Bull spreads are firmer with Dec/Dec corn trading into 10 1/4c fro...
AM Outlook - Up, Down and Sideways
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with wheat futures setting new highs again this morning while meal corrects to the downside against soyoil.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Wheat Higher on Russian Rumors; Corn, Soybeans Firm on End-User Interest
The CBOT started out weaker but found generally solid buying interest. Traders that were unable to exit shorts/trade the upside move on Wednesday are takin...
Real Bread
By now everyone has read that the Supreme Court in Ireland has ruled that the bread used for Subway sandwich shop sandwiches does not meet the legal defini...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Year for Oats
Oats are mostly a North American crop. Canada produces 72 percent of the world’s oats, and the U.S. imports 67 percent of globally traded oats. Mexic...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7975/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
POTUS COVID; Political Chaos; Bullish Commodity Markets
Every election year has an October surprise; President Trump, as has been well publicized by the media, tested positive for COVID-19 yesterday. Outside mar...
PM Post - Lower But Wanting to be Higher
THE OPEN November beans: 8 lower December meal: 1.40 lower December soyoil: 77 lower December corn: 2 1/4 lower December wheat:&nbs...
Technical Views - Down but with Support
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 94.41c/bu while oilshare trades to 4 month lows at 31.34%. Spreads are weaker along with flat price, with Dec/Dec corn t...
AM Outlook - Macro Pressure = Buying Opportunity
GOOD MORNING, The Sep. 1 report is out of the way and in its wake is market digestion. After a large rally, prices are lower this morning as we enter...
Market Commentary: An Odd Day
Yesterday’s surprise NASS reduction in stocks continued to reverberate through the market today but now eyes turn toward next week’s USDA WASDE...
Export Taxes; Mutual FTA Unhappiness; Spinning Pigs
Export Taxes Brazil’s Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, is reportedly considering whether to impose a tax on his country’s agricultural ex...
Livestock Round Up: Cash Market Transactions
Earlier this summer, the NCBA unanimously adopted a policy resolution calling for increased cash market transactions. The final details of the program shou...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.8275/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.7025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&...
Oilseed Highlights: Palm Oil Ban; Soy Export Sales; Argentine Export Taxes; Soybean Stocks
U.S. Bans Imports of Crude Palm Oil from Malaysian Company FGV Holdings The U.S. Government yesterday banned imports of crude palm oil from the Malaysian F...
PM Post - Volume
THE OPEN November beans: 4 higher December meal: 3.20 higher December soyoil: 10 lower December corn: 4 higher December wheat: ...
Views from a Prisoner of COVID-19
Efforts to avoid the COVID-19 virus have forced us into what has become many weeks of home bound hibernation. We have plenty of time to ponder the world ar...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 506,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Co...
Technical Views - Driving Higher
SPREADS Dec. crush trade to 96.88c/bu while oilshare falls to 32.44%. Bullspreads are strong with Dec/Dec corn moving into 11c from 13c, and Dec/Marc...
AM Outlook - Sales Supportive
GOOD MORNING, Prices were higher yesterday post report, with follow-through activity this morning. Breaking it all down we find the following:&...
CPTPP Rationale Rises; Airplane Solution
CPTPP Rationale Rises U.S. House Republicans issued a list of 83 actions that should be taken to strengthen the nation’s countermeasures to Chi...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ignites Following Grain Stocks Report
The September Grain Stocks report did not fail to excite, coming in with surprisingly bullish numbers that sent soybeans as much as 41 cents higher. Wheat...
When Price is a Poor Indicator
Few markets are as distorted as those involving agriculture. Governments typically impose higher tariffs on food to support domestic production even when i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.79/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.78/bushel, up $0.285 from yesterday's close. N...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Live Hog and White Feather Broiler Markets Fall Further With China’s National Day holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival kicking off...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 September 2020 Domestic Russian prices for wheat and barley grew sharply, especially in the south. Corn prices mainly...
PM Post - Post Report Adjustments
THE OPEN November beans: 1 lower December meal: .90 lower December soyoil: 30 lower December corn: 1/2 lower December wheat: ...
Technical Views - Affirm or Refute Ranges
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 93.69c/bu while oilshare is 32.79%. Dec/March corn trades weaker from 9-9 1/2c while Dec/Dec trades from 18 1/2c to 19 1/...
AM Outlook - Mixed Ahead of Report
GOOD MORNING. Prices are mixed heading into the report. Wheat prices are higher against the other markets, having the least length. Technically...
Ag Review - September 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue reviews notable changes in agriculture trade, th...
House Tees Up Revised COVID Relief
In May, the House or Representatives passed the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act - the fourth COVID-19 relief package,...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Weaker while Cattle Rally
CBOT products were generally lower as the end of the month approaches and profits are taken off the table. Tomorrow is first notice day for October soymeal...
Battle over Meat; Future of Inflation; EU Agriculture
Battle over Meat COVID-related restrictions have increased meal consumption at home, and it is reported that per capita meat consumption has concurre...
COVID Impacts – Real and Imagined
Researchers have combed the historical literature and warned about the impacts of COVID-19 but not all the predictions have proved accurate. As countries i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&n...
PM Post - Offering Up Values for Tomorrow
THE OPEN November beans: 7 lower December meal: 1.90 lower December soyoil: 52 lower December corn: 3 lower December wheat: 2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA There is a great deal of concern in North Africa about the effect that the second wave of COV...
Technical Views - Lower Direction
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 98.96c/bu while oilshare trades up to 33.0%. Corn spreads are slightly weaker, with Dec/March trading out to 9c from 8 1/...
AM Outlook - Struggling at Temporary Tops
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower this morning as funds remain long across the board and decide to lighten up a bit heading into tomorrow's September 30 stock...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm while Profit Taking Pressures Soy Complex
The CBOT opened as called with profit taking developing in the soy complex and to a lesser extent wheat and corn. The grain markets firmed heading into the...
New Gasoline Octane Standard Proposed for Higher Ethanol Blends
Last week, Representative Cheri Bustos (D-Illinois) introduced the Next Generation Fuels Act. The legislation would establish a new 98 octane standard for...
World Non-Trade Organization; Unsustainable Soya; Disparate State Rules
World Non-Trade Organization The World Trade Organization, emphasis on trade, might be thought of us a forum for reducing tariff and nontariff barriers to...
Changes in Wheat Class Production
As U.S. wheat has become less competitive in global markets, production has been declining. While wheat exports are down 8 percent from their peak, product...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6675/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European consultancy COCERAL issued its latest series of crop forecasts on 25 September. COCERAL left its forecast of the EU wheat crop...
PM Post - Profit-taking and Liquidation
THE OPEN November beans: 1/2 higher December mela: .20 higher December soyoil: 8 lower December corn: 2 1/4 lower December wheat:&n...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Sorghum Argentina’s sorghum planted area and production has steadily fallen since the 2011/12 campaign. The highest planted area was 1.27 Mha, which...
Technical Views - Bouncing within Ranges
SPREADS Dec. crush firms to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.63%. Dec/March corn trades from 8c to 8 1/2c, while Dec/Dec trades from 17 3/...
AM Outlook - Choppy
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with trade on both sides of unchanged. Oilshare had enjoyed an early overnight bounce, but gave it up by...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed, for feedlots over 1,000 head, totaled 11.4 million – which is up 4 percent from September 1, 2019. This is the highest September...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6525/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: CBOT Finds Comfortable Range; Hogs Rally on Bearish Report
The CBOT firmed on Friday as the week-long selloff found support and markets look to be more or less comfortable with their current level. Funds were modes...
Forex Contradictions; Good Consortiums; Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My!
Forex Contradictions President Donald Trump may not understand the complexities of currency valuations, but he knows their importance. His concurrent chast...
Bearish Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today and the inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 11.4 million head, that is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodit...
PM Post - Fully Corrected for Now
THE OPEN November beans: 3/4 higher December meal: 1.50 lower December soyoil: 14 higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat: 3...
Argentina Cedes on Soymeal
This morning USDA announced a 100 KMT soymeal sale to unknown and it highlights one of the few areas where U.S. market share in bulk commodities has been i...
Technical Views - Between Shorts and Longs
SPREADS Corn spreads remain strong vs. weaker bean spreads. Dec/Dec corn narrows into 18c from 19 3/4, while Dec/March firms to 8c from 8 1/2c. ...
AM Outlook - Is the Bull Market Done
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue mixed this morning. The larger question given the sell-off is whether the bull market is over? Will fu...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Inventory Record; Record September COF Inventory Anticipated
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report this afternoon. The report showed records for the quarter for all hogs and pigs and market pigs. So...
Market Commentary: Loss of Confidence?
Were today’s lower closes in corn and soybeans the market signal of a loss of confidence? Probably not. Volume was down across the board and everythi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.635/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.4975/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Tight Brazil Soybeans; Smaller Argentine Crops
Huge U.S. Soybean Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 17 September indicated exporters sold a huge amount...
One Person’s Poison; Raising the Bar; Cancel Culture Food
One Person’s Poison WTO members questioned plans by Brussels for new subsidies to support organic farming. The EU claims the subsidies to be Green Bo...
PM Post - Wheat Holding Own
THE OPEN November beans: 11 lower December meal: 3.50 lower December soyoil: 63 lower December corn: 3 1/4 lower December wheat:&nb...
What Are Markets Saying?
The price action of modern commodity futures markets reflects the differing needs and opinions of a great many participating traders. Commercial interests...
Technical Views - Continued Lower
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.02c/bu while oilshare falls to 32.05%. Spreads are weaker with Dec/Dec trading out to 20 1/2c from 17 3/4. Dec/Ma...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 351,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 34 percent from the prior 4-week averag...
AM Outlook - Continued Pullback
GOOD MORNING, Prices are now bending under the weight of harvest, nervous longs, and some farmer selling pressure. The stronger US dollar is pe...