Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...
Articles
Market Commentary
The question going into last night’s trading session was whether the soy complex and grains could mount some sort of turnaround from yesterday’s sharp decl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee has forecast that maize plantings will increase 31 percent in 2017 with those of white maize up by 53.5 perce...
Two Reasons Brent Crude Will Remain Under $60
The EIA’s January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent Crude oil prices will be steady through 2018 and unable to break the $60 ceiling.The U.S. Energ...
Democracy versus Science; Border Tax
The European Union’s commissioners will consider a change this Wednesday in the rules as to how GMOs are considered for approval; there is great frustratio...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
There are currently no signs of significant winterkill in Eastern Europe, and the soil moisture is adequate in most of the region. If there is no serious w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Despite Argentina's current corn prices ($150-155/MT) along with a record production (35-36 MMT) forecast and expectations that the exchange rate will not...
What Will Canada’s Farmers Plant in 2017?
Numerous sources north of the border suggest Canadian farmers’ 2017 planting intentions could involve a shift similar to what may occur in the U.S. Numerou...
More from Scott Pruitt on the RFS
Scott Pruitt, nominated to be EPA administrator, was pressed to provide more substantive answers regarding the RFS by senators who will eventually be votin...
Market Commentary
Markets opened lower Sunday evening, and soybean futures were down more than a dime overnight. The soy complex then suffered the brunt of today’s generally...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean Exports Impact Economy; Argentine Soy Crop; Indonesian Palm Oil Export Tax
The level of U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2016 and first two months of the fourth quarter have been attributed to the level of the country'...
Market Commentary
Fireworks may be the key feature of the Chinese New Year celebration, but they were not present at the CBOT today. Trading today was largely “low and slow,...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The corn price for delivery to a starch plant in Gujarat is currently $226/MT, and availability is poor. While starch manufacturers could ensure receipt of...
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Policy: Buy High, Sell Low
The U.S. Department of Energy is beginning to award contracts for sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which will continue for th...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...
What About Minor Crops in 2017?
Soybeans clearly surpass every other cropping choice based on current new crop prices, but there are many so-called minor crops that will also be impacted...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
While corn prices drifted lower amid fears that trade with Mexico might be disrupted by tariffs on Mexican imports to pay for the border wall President Tru...
Agricultural Trade Anxiety
It seems clear that President Trump’s view of trade mostly involves manufactured products and the raw materials needed for manufacturing. Publicly, he has...
More Evidence of Strong Pork Demand; Super Bowl Wing Consumption
The biggest drawdown of pork stocks in cold storage of any December has spurred producers to reiterate the importance of trade. Meanwhile, a forecast of U...
Mexico Miscalculates; Trade Leadership Vacuum
There is much lamenting in Europe over Donald Trump’s decision to end the U.S. leadership on trade liberalization, mostly because it exposes Europe’s limit...
Market Commentary
Despite the choppy markets and what appears to be a pause in the slow upward price trends, quite a few noncommercial fund managers seem comfortable, at lea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While soybean prices dropped in Russia, they grew on both the domestic and export markets in Ukraine because of increasing offer. During the next two weeks...
China In-Country Analysis
With the landed price of imported soybeans climbing for the second consecutive week to an average $443/MT, the crushing margin fell to RMB 235/MT ($34.64/M...
Trade Taxes; Emergencies; Armyworms; Trump Trade Priority
A Chinese newspaper reported that Beijing will block imports of U.S. grain should the American government impose a 35 percent tariff on imports as threaten...
Ethanol Policy; Farm Bill Issues; FTAs and Buy America
Donald Trump contends that bilateral trade agreements are better for the U.S., presumably because there is no dilution of America’s leverage from being the...
Farm Bill Discussion Begins in Earnest: Impact on Consumers Part of Debate
Attention on Capitol Hill has already turned toward the 2018 Farm Bill, and a new paper from a conservative think tank takes a look at farm policy from the...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s 2016 Soy Imports; Brazil Expects to Benefit from U.S. TPP Withdrawal; Minnesota Farmers and Trump Trade Policy
Government and industry officials in Brazil believe that country will be a big winner as a result of the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from t...
Market Commentary
As the day session opened, the soybean market seemed poised to continue the overnight technical rally, but it was not to be. Concerns over President Trump’...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Grain traders in Europe are saying that Germany, Poland and the Baltic states will be replacing France as the major exporters of wheat to North Africa and...
A Happy New Year – So Far
Big crops and low prices have been a fact of market life for so long that it is worth pointing out something of a change in the early weeks of 2017.Beginni...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...
Market Commentary
Corn tenaciously remained unchanged today even as the soy complex promptly retreated on improving weather in Argentina. U.S. corn basis is still competitiv...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Four Days of Trump: Corn Belt Feeling Slighted and U.S.-UK Trade Deal on Table
President Trump’s non-traditional early agenda, ranging from his pick for agriculture secretary to selection of his first official international meeting, i...
Regulation and Conflict
The Trump trade policy agenda has ramped up discussions in Washington this week at think tanks and embassies, and there are at least six public meetings on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Demand-induced nervousness is causing Argentina’s wheat prices to rise, while higher flat prices for corn will soon encourage farmer selling. Soybeans Arge...
Soybeans Rule
Rarely has there been a period of time in grain markets when one commodity has dominated the market action as soybeans recently have, both in terms of pric...
Trump’s Tipping Point
Hugely successful writer Malcom Gladwell focuses on explaining the unexpected or explaining the unexpected out of the usual. Donald Trump’s inaugural speec...
Market Commentary
On a day when the world was watching Washington, DC, unusual activity in the wheat spreads was noted, and Argentina’s soybean production forecast was revis...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Chickpeas are a popular source of protein in India. However, prices of the whole chickpea and the split dal (pulse) are on the rise. As a result, many cons...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The market chatter for much of this week concerned the many guesses coming out of Argentina on lost acres and possible final production. Meanwhile, two fac...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Next Few Months at USDA
After Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th president at noon (EST) today, a team of temporary political appointees moved to fill a number of jobs in the n...
Trump Trade Policy Emerges; Risk-Based GMOs
After three days of congressional hearings and other public musings, the actual trade policy approach of the incoming Trump administration is becoming clea...
Oilseed Highlights: Size of Brazilian Soybean Crop; Big Aussie Canola Crop; More Soybeans than Corn in 2017
If recent forecasts are to be believed, Brazil’s 2017 soybean crop will apparently not only be a record, it will be huge. As optimistic as those projection...
Corn’s Conflicting Story
Whether or not corn can develop a livelier story that might stimulate market activity is an active question with the answer yet to be determined. That answ...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Organic Chicken, Pork and Eggs Just Got More Expensive; Strong Pork Demand
The Obama administration yesterday released a controversial final rule on organic livestock/poultry production and welfare practices, and there will be fin...
Market Commentary
The grain and soy markets remain in a consolidating mood after the recent price gains and seem to be seeking some sort of a comfort level. Argentine weathe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices trade both sides of Tuesday’s closes in much lighter volume, and that arried over into the day session witho...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat and feed wheat prices grew on the domestic market because of three factors. Meanwhile, the country reported record productions of b...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. food and agricultural exports to China in November 2016 reached the third-highest volume for that month at 8.72 MMT. The total was up 8 percent versus...
Trump Trade; EU GMO; Organic Change; Jones Okay
Testimony on Capitol Hill by top nominees in the Trump administration is adding context to what policy can be expected. Wilbur Ross is anticipated to have...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
While South Africa's total wheat consumption is about 3.2 MMT, its local production has dropped from 2.43 MMT in 2000 to only 1.4 MMT in 2015/16. Experts s...
Oilseed Highlights: More Flooding in Argentina; Record Soy Crops in Paraguay/Uruguay; Brazil’s Subsidized Credits for Farmers
Although Argentina clearly has a big problem with its soybean crop, record production is expected in neighboring Paraguay and Uruguay. Meanwhile, the Amagg...
Literal Trump; European Change; Ag to Pay Price
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump managed to upset both Europe and the U.S. dollar over the past 24 hours. He said the U.S. dollar was too strong and quest...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Traders responded last evening to the South American weather situation by pushing soybean and soymeal futures prices sharply higher in heavy trading volume...
Déjà Vu: South American Weather
South American weather is bringing back memories of last year's production losses and raising the chances that there could be similar unexpected demand thr...
Growing Urban Caucus Among House Ag Committee Members
House Agriculture Committee Ranking Minority Member Collin Peterson (D-Minnesota) announced the new Democratic members of the House Agriculture Committee o...
Kansas Reclaims Seat on House Ag Committee, Joining Other New Republican Members
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-Texas) has announced the six new Republican members of the House Agriculture Committee for the 115t...
Cap CFTC; Greens against CAP; Trump’s Future
Republicans in the U.S. House passed a bill that would cap the budget of the CFTC for five years and require more substantial analysis before the agency is...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s explosive reaction to the WASDE failed to carry over into the overnight session. Then as the market opened the day trading session, weakness wa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
What the USDA Reports Didn’t Do
The one sure thing about the January USDA reports is that they generated more interest than the market has seen in a long time. However, what USDA didn’t d...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
After being stable until the third week of December 2016, sugar prices are moving up faster than expected in this current sugar season as there is higher d...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s DDGS Duties; USDA Lowers Soy Yield; Poor Export Sales; Nutella Attacked
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Big Tech; Cross-Compliance; Currency Fight
The corporate leaders for Monsanto and Bayer met with President-elect Donald Trump this week, and it is said the focus was not on the proposed merger of th...
More Hogs and Cattle in 2017; New Georgia Price Index; Korean Egg Imports
More sow farrowings and fewer females in the 2016 annual cattle slaughter mean strong red meat production again in 2017. Meanwhile, the Georgia Department...
USDA’s January Reports
There is no question that the tone of today’s USDA reports is at least mildly bullish, and markets have reacted accordingly. However, it is worth asking wh...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The soybean market helped preserve the reputation held by USDA’s January reports for triggering a strong price reaction in the immediate wake of their rele...
Positional Conflict; Purely Profit
Meat from slow-growing poultry is now the marketing rage with its perceived welfare benefits to the birds, but there are conflicts similar to those found i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
The beginning of 2017 brought virtually no relief to China’s domestic corn market as the average price dropped in all major provinces except for Shan...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Although Russia's overall grain exports are down somewhat in MY 2016/17 as of 28 December 2016 versus a year ago, its corn exports showed a notable change...
Market Commentary
While the Chinese announcement that the punitive antidumping duties on U.S. DDGS would now go into effect caused the inverted Dalian meal futures to rally...
Ethanol Production Increasing Corn Use
Expanded ethanol production and a bullish outlook mean higher corn grind for this industry in 2017.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicat...
Trends for Commodity Prices
Commodity prices are notoriously cyclical, and those who follow grain and oilseed markets may not fully appreciate the broader rally they had in 2016. Now...
Media Smorgasbord; Farm Subsidy Impacts
In the past, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) was structured as an honest broker between federal agencies seeking to find consensus on difficult trade...
Oilseed Highlights: New Bunge Soy Crush Plant; India’s Soymeal Exports Rise; Poor Chinese Crush Margins
Yesterday Bunge announced plans to build a new soybean processing facility at an undisclosed location in either Indiana or Ohio, and adding additional soyb...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Today’s lackadaisical futures trade seemed to reflect pre-report expectations, namely that USDA’s corn numbers may be bearish, the soybean numbers may be b...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
With Egypt expected to need 11.2 MMT of imported wheat this year, private grain importers there are saying that banks are forcing them into bankruptcy beca...
Avian Barriers; Change in Futures Trading
South Korea has agreed to allow the importation of fresh eggs from the U.S. after being previously banned, but it is doing so only after a severe domestic...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea market remained about unchanged during the past three weeks. The Russian wheat balance sheet looks heavy on paper, but two factors are preven...
2017 Starts Countdown to the U.S. Becoming a Net Energy Exporter
Recent developments impacting the U.S. energy sector have changed the dynamic of the global market. This will likely lead to the U.S. becoming a net export...
A Few Key Numbers to Watch in Thursday’s USDA Reports
USDA will release its January series of reports on 12 January. They will include a plethora of numbers, but there are several key ones that the market will...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday night session just fractionally higher, but wheat led them throughout the night with gains of 2-3 cents. It wasn’t the price tha...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
After a very active November and December, the soybean market came to a standstill toward the end of the year and has started 2017 with very little movemen...
U..S. Winter Wheat Ratings and Argentina’s Acreage Estimates
Weather may be having an impact on U.S. hard red winter wheat, but another factor will also influence production in 2017. Meanwhile, Argentina's soybean an...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft overnight, led by weakness in the soy complex, and a small weekly export sales number this morning pushed prices lower. Wheat, though, sh...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
During the demonetization period that began in November 2016, the price of cottonseed oil cake, a major source of protein for livestock in India, continued...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Taxes and Trade, Food; Nationalism; Skewed Sources
Contradicting President-elect Donald Trump, U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) announced this week on a radio program that there will be no border...
Trump Trade with Russia and China
Russia and China are two significant export markets for the meat and poultry sector, and they have the potential to be even more so in the future. However,...
Politics and Agriculture
The potentially murkiest policy questions facing the new Trump administration concern trade, an area where U.S agriculture has a very large stake. At its f...
In a Name; Terms of Trade
A pending issue before U.S. FDA is whether plant-based foods such as soy milk, almond milk and rice milk can be called “milk,” and a similar fight is occur...
Oilseed Highlights
Many of the soybeans that were inundated by the floods in Argentina will not survive, and it is almost too late to replant. While the situation is differen...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade overnight was mostly in the direction of lower prices with volume about average. The day session proved to be more active with...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While grain exports from Russian seaports grew to 24.3 MMT in 2016 against 22.9 MMT the previous year, those from Ukrainian seaports were significantly hig...
Market Commentary
Traders may have paid limited attention to South American weather Tuesday as they returned from the long weekend, but it was front and center today. The re...
China In-Country Analysis
The landed price of imported soybeans was $422/MT last week, up $3/MT from the week before, and that combined with amother factor to bring domestic crush m...
Trump versus China; Euro Stalingrad; Expectations of Trump
President-elect Donald Trump says he is going to stop China from “taking our jobs” and has hired a bevy of fellow China-bashers to execute the plan. Beijin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A New Year and Old Markets
It is a new year, according to the calendar, but it would appear that grain and soy futures markets have transited seamlessly from the last one. However, a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
There has been quite a bit of comment that the new design of the Saudi Grains Organization (SGO) could greatly benefit foreign investors in Saudi Arabia’s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Predicted Food Trends: Will Meat Follow the Path of Beer?
A recent National Restaurant Association survey of chefs shows protein demand is likely to grow and change toward more specialty items. Could the evolution...
Lighthizer Reactions; Locality Bullying
Politicians try all kinds of ways to benefit special interests, particularly domestic ones. Nationalism and localism are common and tend to distort trade...
Market Commentary
Apparently, of more interest to traders than South American weather is the imminent rebalancing of index funds. Thus, Inter-market spreading was the story...
Oilseed Highlights
The government of Argentina issued a decree yesterday that reaffirmed an earlier decision regarding the export taxes on soybeans and soy products, and this...
Milk Wars
Dairy producers are challenging use of the term “milk” for products such as soy milk, almond milk, rice milk, etc., and the plant-based beverage makers' ar...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed at the start of the last trading day for 2016. As of the close today, the soybean futures market was up almost $1.50/bushel for the year...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
First 100 Days
While Donald Trump has now been housed for many days at the Mar-a-Lago complex in Florida, the next three months are critical to the shape and substance of...
Astonishing U.S. Corn Crop
The U.S. Grains Council just released its 2016/17 Corn Harvest Quality Report, and the analysis of the 2016 U.S. crop goes quite far toward explaining how...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Prior to GOI’s elimination of the import duty in early December, wheat prices had reached a high of $354/MT in the New Delhi spot market. They have eased c...
U.S. Retaliates on EU Beef Ban; Cold Storage Report
The decades-old U.S./EU beef trade dispute is back on the front burner as the U.S. decides to retaliate. Meanwhile, a USDA report, which showed meat and po...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tail Wags; Unprincipled; Passing Grade Only
Russia’s cyber interference in the U.S. election was wrong, but removing some diplomats and blocking access to some buildings in the U.S. is hardly punishm...
Outlook for Soybeans in 2017
While it is impossible to know and probably foolish to speculate, this is a good time to look at what may happen in 2017 pertinent to the global soybean se...
Market Commentary
Corn futures prices closed slightly higher in what was for the most part directionless, low volume trading, and wheat put in a rare performance as the mark...
Commodities Are Attractive Again
Commodities have become attractive to investors again, although not for reasons of portfolio diversification. Of the several factors that have combined to...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s vigorous across-the-board rally of grain and soy futures prices, traders wondered if today would be this holiday-shortened week’s Turnaro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
According to Toleutay Rakhimbekov, director of the Agricultural Competence Center in the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, the volume of Kazakhstan’s grai...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. ethanol exports to China have followed a similar trajectory to other U.S. food and agricultural exports for the first ten months of the year. The tota...
Lopsided Analysis; Danger Year in Europe
Per the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, a copyright association assessment indicates that piracy in China is one of the highest in the world (over 90 percent). Th...
Livestock Inventories
Although USDA’s Cattle on Feed report was in line with expectations, the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was not.WPI’s last Livestock Roundup (see Ag Perspe...
Market Commentary
Traders returning from the Christmas holiday found that a measure of good cheer for market bulls had been spread around while they were away, and the overn...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
While most years are eventful for the world soybean sector, it seems that 2016 was even more so than usual. A Most Eventful Year for the Soybean Sector As...
2016 and 2017
As the end of this year and the beginning of the next one nears, it is hard to resist looking back at what has occurred and speculating about what lies ahe...
2017 U.S. Policy Forecast
By their essence, government policies subsidize or penalize various actors in the economy. Some of this will change, but the complex nature of the democrac...
Beef with EU; Change Agent; USDA Leadership
The U.S. won the beef hormone case against the EU seven years ago, but it has never been fully compensated - until perhaps now. Beef with EU The U.S. won t...
Ag Transition Causing Jitters
Although it is unknown at this point who will be the new USDA secretary, another cabinet nominee is adding to the nervousness felt by some aggies. Now in t...
All I Want for Christmas Is…
News is sparse on this eve of the Christmas holiday weekend. However, no one really cares about that or markets today, so perhaps a Christmas wish list is...
Market Commentary
In the soy complex, funds continued to slowly liquidate their long positions as weather in Argentina has improved. Meanwhile, wheat markets continue to be...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s capacity to crush corn for starch production could increase to 16,525 tons per day (TPD) by 2018, although that currently available is underused an...
Christmas Wishes 2016
The current poltical trend involving a nationalist populism and demands for change (however defined) around the world combined with other events provides a...
Preview of USDA’s December Cattle on Feed and Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Reports
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Oilseed Highlights
The director of Cuba’s Center for Agricultural Research of Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB) indicates that country may begin planting GM soybea...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading opened mixed, but prices soon turned slightly lower. They were then quietly lower in slack trade durig the day session until the soy comp...
Indonesia Down, India Next; Canadian Superiority
A WTO dispute settlement panel sided with the U.S. (and New Zealand) in a ruling that Indonesia’s food import licensing scheme is illegal. Washington needs...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While Russia's milling wheat prices decreased across all regions, they grew slightly in Ukraine (in UAH expression) because of two factors. Meanwhile, Russ...
Ag Review: The Exit of Commodities Bear Market?
WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The Flour Milli...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Proximity; Inert versus Active
There are those that recommend dispersing federal agencies across the country with the belief that their financial largess will aid more communities than j...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet, low volume overnight session, and perhaps the most telling feature of today was the very narrow daily trading ranges across the board. Outs...
China In-Country Analysis
Because of recent government action that is impacting Chinese crushing facilities across more than 11 provinces and regions, the outlook for the coun...
Oilseed Highlights
An Argentine government proposal would require farmers to pay royalties on patented biotech seed for three years after the initial purchase, but the seed c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Strong grain demand from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is overwhelming Russia’s port facilities, pushing the government there to expand and...
Potential Market Movers
There are several factors that might be grain and soy market movers in the foreseeable future, but markets may also face more unanswered questions with the...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s weakness carried over into the overnight session, and grain and soy markets found no comfort during the day session either. Technical traders c...
House Ag Committee Report on SNAP
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway’s (R-Texas) top-to-bottom review of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), promised two...
Trade Policy Lead; Japan’s Concessions; Deregulation
U.S. Commerce Secretary-designee Wilbur Ross has variously been described as a future major player, very intimately involved, or taking the lead in U.S. tr...
Demagoguery; Less for More; Keep Punke
Some American cities and counties have attempted to ban the cultivation of GM crops within their jurisdiction, but China’s giant corn-growing province, Hei...
Global Avian Influenza Outbreak Provides U.S. Export Opportunity to Korea
A major outbreak of avian influenza (AI) in Korea is restricting its domestic production to meet growing demand for broiler meat. Similar occurrences among...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While the soybean market in Argentina remains quiet with no trades last week, there was demand for June at +$0.18N but no sellers. Today demand is at +$0.0...
Market Commentary
The soy complex was soft in the Sunday session and stayed that way throughout today’s trading. Needed rainfall was received in parts of Argentina, which ha...
Rain in Argentina; Bitter Cold in U.S. Winter Wheat Country
It’s not often that we are talking about weather markets in the days before the Christmas holiday, but there was one of sorts today in soybeans and wheat.I...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
2017 Acres and Ending Supplies
Thoughts are quickly starting to shift toward the potential for 2017 acres and how that might translate into U.S. production and ending supplies in MY 2017...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar prices in Maharashtra may be dropping as new stocks become available at the market, but they could rise over the next few months because of one antic...
Lopsided on China; Chef Sickness; European Trouble
President-elect Donald Trump’s phone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has upset not just Beijing but China experts in Washington as well as some...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed in relatively quiet trade overnight, and it was a low volume day with little in the way of fresh news to end the week. KC and Chicago wh...
Freedom Caucus Regulatory Rollback Proposal
While it was formed to block Republican leadership from compromising with President Obama on most issues, the conservative House Freedom Caucus is now swit...
The Attack of the U.S. Dollar
With the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank signaling a hawkish approach to monetary policy over the next two-three years, the U.S. dollar is on a tear. However, it...
USDA Publishes Long-Time Controversial GIPSA Rules
USDA’s GIPSA rules have been released, as promised, before President Obama leaves office. The rules have 60-day comment periods, which will expire in Febru...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures was seemingly frozen in place by the soaring U.S. dollar. However, trading was a bit more active during the day se...
Oilseed Highlights
Stats Canada reports that a record 1.77 MMT (65 million bushels) of soybeans were produced in Manitoba Province this year as farmers there continue to boos...
More Organic Grain; Last Agency Leader Named
The U.S. organic livestock products industry wants more organic certified feed, and U.S. grain growers would like to grow and sell organic grain for its pr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The grain and soy markets had little at stake in the Fed’s rate hike other than the potential impact it might have on the U.S. dollar. However, soyoil gain...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
How Trump Negotiates; China Status; Transatlantic Volatility
In what ought to be informative for agricultural trade policy specialists, President-elect Donald Trump is revealing his approach to negotiations. It is hi...
China In-Country Analysis
While last week’s imported soybean price of $432/MT was a $1/MT improvement from the previous week, the average crush margin on those imports f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Sunflower seed bids started growing in Ukraine. They increased to $383-405/MT EXW and $407-422/MT CPT as FOB offers rose to $395-415/MT. Because of the rep...
Livestock Safe; No Tears for TPP; Only in DC
U.S. agriculture is hoping for less environmental regulation under Donald Trump’s presidency, but Barack Obama has not been totally unkind. Livestock Safe...
Surging World Grain and Oilseed Supplies
From a strictly fundamental perspective, the U.S. and world supply/demand balance appears to be quite bearish. To be sure, there is record or near-record d...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey has announced a new $4 billion agricultural subsidy program that will cover 19 strategic crops. However, production of one in particular is neverthe...
A Potential Democratic Nominee for Agriculture Secretary
North Dakota Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is reportedly being considered for USDA secretary. What are some of the possible calculations behind this, a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The action in overnight trade, such as it was, occurred in the soy complex in response to Asian markets. As seems to be something of a pattern these days,...
Oilseed Highlights
Stine Seed, an Iowa-based company, plans to offer about 200 farmers the opportunity next year to save back biotech soybean seed for replanting. The program...
Other Oil Producers Join OPEC Agreement to Reduce Production
Oil markets today reacted to the latest production cutback agreement among OPEC and other oil-producing nations. The question remains whether OPEC’s plan w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
It is too early to determine whether Argentina will have sufficient 12 percent protein wheat to fulfill the contracts already made. The lack of demand for...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The milling wheat market in the Black Sea is firmer due to the stronger ruble and increasing demand from one particular country. Meanwhile, Algeria is in t...
Market Commentary
Sunday markets started firm with early soybean futures trading as much as 10-11 cents higher, but that buying dissipated with all markets slightly lower to...
No Letup in Export Pace
Today’s weekly export inspections report again showed very strong soybean exports for last week, but corn and wheat exports were also quite good. It’s diff...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Europe’s GMO Achievement; Unsustainable
Recent action by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) s a stunning rebuke to the critics of GM technology that despite their rants and tactics, scient...
Continuing Resolution in Senate After House Passage
This is the day the federal government runs out of money. Yesterday the House passed a stopgap spending bill, which includes expanded funding for farm loan...
Boo; China Trumped; Euro Angst
After bouncing along flat to declining since Labor Day, the Dow has since taken off post-election and added nearly 8 percentage points. While Richard Madig...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As GOI has now decided to completely remove the import duty on wheat, prices have dropped slightly after moving up prior to the announcement.. With Ukraini...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was lethargic early today, but it improved significantly in the last hour of the session when prices started to rally. Accelerated buying in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA Report and a Few Random Thoughts
While today's USDA December WASDE did not contain any significant changes to the bottom line of U.S. ending supplies, there were some adjustments to the wo...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA recently released its annual long-term projections for major crops, and those for soybeans can be justifiably challenged for several reasons. USDA’s L...
Market Commentary
Soybean and product prices pulled back in overnight trade. There were negative influences from declines for Dalian futures prices and Malaysian palm oil. M...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Trump Ag Policy; Transition; State-Owned Market Economy
Japan has now joined the U.S. and likely the EU in refusing to accept Beijing’s interpretation of WTO requirements that China now be treated as a “market e...
Red Meat Production and Trade; New EPA Administrator
While red meat production levels are staying at near-record to record levels going into the last month of the year, there has also been a notable change in...
A Fresh Look at U.S. Farms
Periodically, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) compiles a report that profiles the U.S. farming sector. The most recent one, released earlier this we...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's grain production is projected to show an increase in 2016, but the problems that traders have had transporting stocks to the seaports conti...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain prices were little changed in overnight trading even though Dalian meal and soyoil futures continued their upward trek. Trading was also...
China In-Country Analysis
The average domestic corn price in China retreated even further in the first week of December, dropping RMB 11/MT ($1.60/MT) to RMB 1,689/MT ($245.50/...
Slow Demand; Tricky Appointments; U.S.-EU; Dumping
Brussels is close to a free trade agreement with Tokyo, but the question is whether it will provide much of a boost to either economy. This is partly answe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
In light of recent action taken by Egypt's government regarding a certain tax together with the need to purchase feed ingredients, medicines, etc. from out...
China’s Continuing Corn Conundrum
Chinese corn reserves were built up over many years as a result of government efforts to support domestic corn prices. It is now attempting various approac...
Oilseed Highlights
The government of Ukraine plans to boost its efforts to prevent local farmers from planting GM soybeans. While no such soybean varieties have b...
Who Will Run a Trump Administration USDA?
President-elect Trump has not yet picked a nominee to lead USDA, which is likely to be producer-friendly. However, the list of potential names remains leng...
Creating a Trend; Trade and Tax Policy
With low prices now burdening growers, researchers are calculating what tweaks can be made to extract something additional from the market. However, there...
Market Commentary
In overnight trading, soybeans continued to build on Monday’s gains with fuel provided by higher prices for Dalian’s soymeal and oil as well as another sto...
Taiwan as Leverage; Bitter Spring with Mexico; Trump Gauge
The media initially accused Donald Trump of amateurism for talking to the Taiwanese president in violation of a 40-year-old protocol. It turns out, though,...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian corn is offered at $165/MT FOB for December-February, which is roughly in line with U.S. stocks on a CNF basis to the main destinations in the Me...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Soybean Demand Not Slowing
The soybean analysis of last Friday (see Ag Perspectives, 2 December) discussed the role of emotion as a driver of the soy complex, but another factor is r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian farmers’ soybean sales have been significantly delayed this year due to a stronger real and weak CBOT. In the past few weeks, though, CBOT has be...
Commerce Department Reviewing Sugar Agreement with Mexico
With a renegotiation of NAFTA high on the incoming Trump administration’s agenda, a new Commerce Department investigation may tee up sugar as one of the fi...
Market Commentary
Expanding concerns about hot, dry weather across parts of Argentina gave the soy complex new life Sunday evening after last week’s losses, and then a devel...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed to slightly lower early in last night’s session, but they were trading steady to higher at the opening this morning. Corn traded higher...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India’s gross domestic product (GDP) was at a high of 7.3 percent in the second quarter, it is likely to be negatively impacted in the third and four...
Not Much Can Stop the Soybean Market
If there has ever been a market that has begged to be sold over the past year or two, it is soybeans. In fact, most participants did exactly that, an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Rearview Mirror Policy; Foreign Aid and Trade
A common flaw is for new farm policy to be drafted based on immediate past market experience, and that is particularly true for dairy. A key agriculture ad...
Truth Revealed; Diverging Transatlantic Emissions
Pedro Marcilio of the Brazilian firm Participacoes SA admits that U.S. government funds have been used as production loans for Brazilian cotton farmers. No...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Georgia Dock Price Index Suspended; Received Prices Down; China Access
According to NASS, the October Prices Received Index for agricultural production decreased 6.6 percent from September. Meanwhile, one senator wants USDA Se...
Campaign Promises and Reality
Although President-elect Trump often railed against the Dodd-Frank legislation as a candidate and promised to do away with it, a full repeal is not likely...
Market Commentary
Perhaps today’s market dynamics can best be described by the fact that Chicago and KC wheat futures prices posted yet more contract lows while soyoil contr...
China In-Country Analysis
Given certain developments regarding soymeal and soyoil in November, some stockpiling in the near term makes sense. Nonetheless, the massive turnover and s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex markets traded mostly higher during the overnight session, helped along by the macro impact of the OPEC agreement to cut production a...
Election Impact on the Farm Bill
A Farm Foundation debate today on prospects for the next farm bill, post the election of Donald Trump, brought much enlightenment and a variety of opinions...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Although Russian grain exports have been lagging behind last year's level, the November volume is expected to show notable growth versus the same month las...
Gleanings from USDA’s Baseline Projections
Each year since 2000, USDA has produced baseline reports that project U.S. crop acreage and supply/demand balances for wheat, corn and soybeans for the 10...
Oilseed Highlights
The inability of farmers to use neonicotinoid insecticides along with poor weather in some areas resulted in EU rapeseed production falling 10.6 percent fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Egyptian government forecasts local aquaculture production, which currently meets 80 percent of the country’s consumption demand, will increase 35 perc...
Natural Gas Overview
Warmer winter weather last year and to date this year is driving higher-than-normal natural gas storage inventories despite demand from the power sector, a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
After trading higher for the last seven trading days, during which the January soybean contract jumped 70 cents higher, the market finally turned in overni...
More Beatings; China Retribution; Zombies
Mexico’s Finance Minister José Antonio Meade correctly warns that an overplayed effort to rewrite NAFTA would hurt the U.S. economy and not just his countr...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea milling wheat market was again firm last week on slow farmer selling and exporters’ short covering. The pace of exports from Russia remains t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
January soybean futures soared to gains of 18-19 cents last night before collapsing and trading lower at 9:30 A.M. this morning. However, that weakness was...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat quality has been an issue in Argentina for many years, spanning the entire supply chain. One problem is that many farmers don't know the quality of t...
Perhaps Politics Should Be Watched Instead of Weather
It’s beginning to look like national elections around the world will be as important to the direction of the markets as weather forecasts. With several loo...
Trade and Tax Policies Collision
Donald Trump complained about inequitable international tax systems during the campaign, and now congressional Republicans are entertaining a solution. How...
Strange Year in Politics
Surprise election outcomes in the U.S. and Europe as well as political chaos in South America have set the stage for potentially volatile foreign exchange...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
While the expanding dryness that is starting to affect the 2017 U.S. hard red winter wheat production region has been covered in analysis here this week, t...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures continued to set new highs for this postharvest on more evidence of no slowdown in export demand. However, it was a different story for cor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wholesale wheat prices in New Delhi, the country’s key market, surged to Rs.23,916/MT ($346/MT) on 18 November from Rs.18,858/MT ($281/MT) on 18 October. T...
Losers Pay; Message Received; Arbitrary Standards
The WTO has several problems, but an important one is its understaffed, overworked Appellate Board (AB). While two new judges have recently been appointed,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
EPA Announces Final Biofuel Volumes
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today finalized the 2017 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for over...
China; More China; Food Fallacies; Inequality
Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) told Agri-Pulse to “Show me a nation that cannot feed itself, and I'll show you a nation in ch...
Market Commentary
The Pre-Thanksgiving futures market rally did take place, but it ws not in the way traders had imagined. The EPA surprised by announcing its final Renewabl...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While oilseed prices in Russia showed growth on average in the past week, those in Ukraine exhibited a different pattern in both the domestic and export ma...
China In-Country Analysis
After an extremely slow start to 2016 and a modest recovery in the spring, U.S. food and agricultural exports to China have recovered nicely as a result of...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Economic Outlook
The supply of money held by the public has grown almost 47 percent since 2010 when compared with the size of the economy, and some estimates indicate that...
Market Commentary
It was once again a mostly green day of trading for grain and soy futures with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. The principal exceptions were soyoil a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Researchers in Kenya have said that planting GM maize could save up to $90 million annually in crop losses as well as lead to an additional production of 4...
Oilseed Highlights
A draft proposal submitted to the EU Commission recommends a 50 percent reduction in the use of biofuels in the transportation sector after 2020. This is b...
Soybean Market Exuberance
Yesterday’s soy complex market performance had many market watchers wondering what was going on. The clarity of hindsight suggests that the rally resulted...
Trump and Trade; China’s Designs; Climate Flip-Flops
Donald Trump says he will withdraw the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on day one of his presidency and instead "negotiate fair, bilateral tr...
Market Commentary
Unusual strength in Sunday night trading gave way to a sharply higher trading session for the soy complex. U.S. exports are well above USDA projections, le...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine soybeans started this week showing weaker basis. May shipment is offered at 20 SN with demand bidding at 15 SN, and June cargo is offered at +25...
Transition: USDA and World; Balkanized Agriculture
If many Americans barely understand why and what happened in the recent election, foreigners can be forgiven a similar challenge. International relations h...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Propane Outlook for the 2016/17 Winter Season
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has issued its Winter Fuel Outlook. It includes data regarding propane, the cost of which is a a major inp...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Demand for Ukrainian wheat is still present in India. One vessel loaded in Bulgaria last week is also apparently destined there, and Russia has asked India...
Southern Plains Turning Dry
Crop conditions across the U.S. have been so good that there simply hasn’t been any worry about moisture levels. Meanwhile, 2016 brought record U.S. winter...
Transitional Crops; Dead Zone Policy; Huge Conspiracy
The Organic and Non-GMO Forum this week highlighted the conundrum hitting U.S. farmers as consumers change their preferences. However, a new farm bill init...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally mixed overnight, but they turned positive today and finished the week with moderate gains in soybeans, corn and wheat. This was an i...
Do the Math
Analysts are already starting to consider the mix of U.S. planted acres for 2017. Those acreage projections will be used as the base for making next year''...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's recent move against the country's old currency notes is having a profound effect on farmers who bring their produce to market as well as truc...
New Strategy for the Lame-Duck Session
After seeming intent on bundling together certain regular appropriation bills as a series of “minibus” bills prior to the election, the Republican congress...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil’s biodiesel production is forecast to change notably in 2017, based partially on a revision to the required blending level for biodiesel with...
Market Commentary
Trading volume remained slow early in the day session with grain and soy prices muddling around on either side of Wednesday’s closes. The biggest feature d...
Retailers Featuring Beef; COF; Thanksgiving Dinner
With beef prices moderating from record highs in recent years, retailers are enjoying profitable margins and have returned to promoting beef with features,...
More Tales from Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
GMO Enforcement; Natural to a Fault
Ahead of next week’s meeting of the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, 37 members of the U.S. Senate asked Obama administration negotiators...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A sudden increase in freight rates from the U.S. Gulf has made Chinese buyers nervous. U.S. FOB prices remain on par with Brazil’s, but certain issues rega...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures modestly extended Tuesday’s upturn in prices in slow overnight trading with several factors providing a considerable headwind that li...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Biofortified Maize and the Politics of GMOs
Conventionally-bred biofortified crops are improving the health of millions globally but will eventually be forced to rely on GM technology. Will activists...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices continued to rise (in UAH expression) due to high demand from domestic and foreign buyers. Meanwhile, Russia's grain export...
Ag Review: Agribusiness Margins in the Face of Uncertainty
WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The Grain Indus...
New Trade Paradigm; Lesson in Geneva; Trump Impact
The election of Donald Trump is prompting a complete rethink of U.S. trade policy - some of it reasonable, and some of it not so much. New Trade Paradigm T...
Updating the U.S. Corn Outlook
The November WASDE's surprising increase in the estimated U.S. national average corn yield warrants a fresh look at the nation's supply/demand dynamics.As...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were choppy and mixed overnight with corn and soybeans lower and wheat slightly higher in quiet trade. However, the day sessio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
While the currency situation in Egypt seems to be a bit calmer this week, the general consensus among private sector importers is that grain imports will h...
Oilseed Highlights
China’s Global Times, the state-run newspaper, published an editorial warning of bad consequences for the U.S. if the Trump administration imposes re...
North Dakota Congressman Outspoken on Ag Policy
Representative Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) is becoming an outspoken leader in proposing new agricultural policy ideas, but his biggest reforms come in th...
Trumped Farm Bill; Margin Winners
Typically, political party insiders negotiate a “platform” of policy platitudes intended to inform voters and guide the presidential nominees on the prefer...
It’s All about Asia, and It Will Stay That Way
Southeast Asia is the location of nearly all of the growth and market action and will continue to be so for a long time, which is certainly no surprise to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
After a strong summer, U.S. pork exports to China came in at 23,905 MT for September with a total value of $50.15 million. These figures were significantly...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The exportable surpluses of milling wheat in Ukraine and Russia are estimated at 16 MMT and 30 MMT, respectively. However, weather conditions during the ne...
Market Commentary
Several notable factors were not sufficient on their own to bring enough buyers to the soybean market to offset the fund selling. Much of this weakness is...
Europe Trumped; Supply Destruction
Germany’s Prime Minister Angela Merkel, who set off a political eruption in Europe with her near unilateral decision on Syrian refugees, welcomed incoming...
Farm Bill Issues and the 2018 Election
With the election over and all eyes in the ag sector on the 2018 Farm Bill, it is worth looking ahead to the 2018 mid-term elections and what role they wil...
Market Commentary
A volatile week finished with a retreat in the soy complex, driven by rumors of China forcing a fund out of a long position on the Dalian exchange and farm...
The Week That Was
The surprising events of this week created substantial market volatility that will not soon be erased. Normally, the winter months are quiet for commodity...
Trump's USDA
The outlook for agriculture under a Trump Administration includes a move away from “foodie” issues pushed by the Obamas and farmers in prominent D.C. posit...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Government of India’s surprise demonetization of the Rupee has financial impacts rippling through the Indian economy, though commodity prices remain re...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.Note: Due to the Veterans Day holiday, the CFTC Committment of Traders data will be published Monday, 14 Nove...
Erroneous Trump Policy Speculation
In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s victory the whole cadre of Washington analysts, journalists and special interests are playing the speculation game...
LIVESTOCK ROUNDUP: Election, WASDE and Red Meat Exports
Following Trump’s election victory, cattlemen are pledging to work with the new administration on issues from trade to sage grouse, though advancing TPP wi...
Oilseed Highlights
The big crop was made bigger by USDA’s latest report. The U.S. soybean yield is now the highest on record in the world. Argentina’s soybean crop forecast w...
Into the Unknown
The election is over but the guesswork on what President-elect Trump will do upon entering the White House is just beginning. Possible issues at the forefr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The soy complex took off in the overnight session, fueled by a rally in Palm Oil futures and Asian veg oil supply tightness. Corn and wheat followed soybea...
Wrong Political Lesson; Real Cheese Please
EU leaders are warning that Brexit and Trump’s victory are “warning signs” to liberal democracies though efforts to suppress such events...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia’s grain harvest will be the largest in 38 years which sent Russian grain prices were lower this week, adding competitive fuel to world markets. Ukra...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Presidential election and the November WASDE proved to be a vicious combination that sent markets – from corn to oil to equities – into a tailspin...
Trump Transition; Environment Election; Economy and Trump
The most shocking vote in recent history is over and efforts will begin to stitch together the Trump Administration. Other election news includes Washingto...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The record U.S. crop is stifling demand for Brazilian beans and negligible quality differences between Argentinian soybeans and those from the U.S. PNW are...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The new floating Egyptian pound is likely to slow markets in the near term as traders and end-users adjust... Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN CO...
Non-Election Topics
Americans are growing weary of political discussions and are looking forward to non-election topics. Fortunately, U.S. grain exports, La Nina weather, and...
New Tax Magnet; Pinging Barriers
Food may be replacing fossil fuels as the flavor of the day for taxes while the WTO’s new system for reporting regulatory barriers to trade may need to be...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Following yesterday’s “relief rally” in equities, grain and oilseed markets exploded higher today. Malaysian palm oil and Chicago soyoil led grains higher...
2018 Farm Bill Baseline Outlook
Falling crop prices and net cash farm income are juxtaposed against falling government farm program payments which will create lively debate when the new C...
Oilseed Highlights
A ban on GM ingredients in animal feeds passed Poland’s lower house of parliament and, if passed in the Senate, could disrupt the nation’s animal industrie...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s bifurcated corn market continues with northeastern prices falling and southern prices rising on supply tightness. Chinese soybean crushing margins...
Market Commentary
Weekend election news sent outside markets sharply higher while fund buying boosted the soy complex. Corn and wheat markets were softer despite large volum...
Sugar Tax Election; TPP Dead; Precision Subsidies
Taxes on sugary soft drinks are on several municipal ballots tomorrow, but will they achieve their desired results? Meanwhile, TPP is practically dead and...
Another USDA Report, No Surprises Likely
The November WASDE report may be overshadowed by the election results but important international production revisions are possible. Dry weather in South A...
Lame Duck Agenda
Tomorrow’s elections, for both the U.S. President and various Congressional seats, has strong implications on what will be accomplished during the coming l...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Black Sea wheat prices are firming and offers in Ukraine are difficult to find while Russian prices have increased $10 in one month. Black Sea corn markets...
Market Commentary
Every market has been very tentative this week, and today was no exception. Trading volume was average ahead of the weekend and the U.S. presidential elect...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The market yard price of corn in Nizamabad has dropped 11.06 percent from the start of the season to $201/MT, and the NCDEX spot price there also decreased...
U.S. Winter Wheat Acres Going Lower
Record hard red winter wheat yields are not enough to keep 2016 winter wheat plantings from declining, and there are several reasons for the drop in acreag...
Farm Groups Start Asking Questions About Next Farm Bill
The 2014 Farm Bill doesn’t expire until 2018, but deliberations on the next one will start in earnest when the new Congress convenes in January 2017. In pr...
Managing the Pork Supply; Red Meat Production
With hog slaughter up this year, there is an excess of pork on the market that will affect prices, especially going into the Thanksgiving holiday when reta...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Free Trade and the Disbelievers
Distrust of trade agreements is a symptom of a growing, classic populist belief that the trade deck is stacked in favor of big multinational corporations a...
Uncertainty; Too Many Cooks
Global economic growth and trade have been slower in recent years, and Steven J. Davis of the University of Chicago can tell you why. Policy Uncert...
Oilseed Highlights
The government of Malaysia today announced it would boost the mandatory biodiesel blend requirement on 1 December. While it will rise from 7 to 10 percent...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets appear to be adopting a cautious approach to next Tuesday’s election and next Wednesday’s November WASDE. Fund managers are taking so...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina remains active in the new crop soybean market. Its last trade was performed yesterday at $0.96 SN CNF for June shipment, and offers keep going lo...
Creating Competitors; Obesity; TPP Votes; Outlook
As net agricultural exporting countries have worked to improve their access to foreign markets, the less competitive nations have increased their efforts t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain markets again followed the trends of previous weeks as milling grain prices continued to grow. Meanwhile, Russia exported 354,700 MT of grain...
Market Commentary
Perhaps the most interesting feature from the overnight trading sessions so far this week is that while trading volume for grains and the soy complex has b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The latent bullish trends that the soybean and corn markets were working to establish got blown apart today, and the technical momentum is now pointed down...
Fire Hakim
Conventional agriculture is accustomed to seeing the distortions professed about biotechnology by anti-GMO activists, but reading such in the New York Time...
Potential Market Movers
With the fall harvest so far along the downhill slope, it is a good time to step back and take a look at things that might become potential market movers i...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt has set up a new wheat import inspection system that seems to be giving some confidence to traders and tender participants. It will be under the auth...
Oilseed Highlights
With Chinese investors increasingly soured on stocks, they have shifted to other sectors such as calligraphy, antiques, art and commodities. One target of...
Protein Rebound
Protein is trending again among diet fads and nutritional advice, but per capita consumption has been moving downward, largely due to retail prices. Howeve...
Soybean Economy
The last quarter's GDP growth was the highest since the third quarter of 2015 and more than twice the average rate for this year’s first two quarters. One...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Last week's U.S. export inspections were again very big last week, and that highlights the ability to move grain and oilseeds from the interior to export f...
It’s Hard to Make Some People Happy
Ironically, the most protected industry in U.S. agriculture is complaining that its farmers are disadvantaged, and it makes an emotional appeal with an eco...
Market Commentary
The grain and oilseed markets were quietly mixed in overnight trading. Wheat was actually the upside leader last night and today. Corn and soybeans were sl...
China In-Country Analysis
With the landed price of imported soybeans rising to RMB 2,935.74/MT ($433/MT) last week, oil and meal prices were increased. Despite that, the average cru...
CETA’s Meaning; Signs of EU Change; Win Win
By successfully pushing through the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada, EU officials showed more moxie than their American count...
Market Commentary
Markets were slightly lower overnight with no fresh news to push prices higher heading into one of the last harvest weekends of this year. Wheat still has...
Food Price Deflation Reflects Commodity Markets
Yesterday USDA released its Food Price Outlook Report for September, which is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,...
What Might 2017/18 Look Like?
Estimates of what U.S. farmers might plant in 2017 are already emerging, although it is very early to play this game as the 2016 corn and soybean harvests...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's peanut-in-shell MSP for the 2016/17 season was fixed at $629/MT in June 2016. However, GOI’s first advanced estimates of September 2016 have projec...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
CETA Angst; Nuking Equality
Canada is a small country next to the EU, but at this time it shares its head of state with the Brexit redcoats. Perhaps this is behind the fact that nothi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Cattle on Feed; Cash-Fat Cattle Market; R-CALF Hearing; Arby’s New “Game”
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading built on the momentum provided by yesterday’s firmer closes. The day session saw prices mostly stay in the green, although some choppines...
Oilseed Highlights
The National Assembly of France today rejected a Green Party-proposed amendment to the 2017 budget bill, which the group had sought as a way to address its...
Trends in World Trade
If U.S. grain and soybean exports are of key importance to futures market action, it follows that world trade in these commodities is as well.We have often...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's mllling wheat prices increased, mainly due to international factors such as the higher purchase price on the GASC tender and lower-than-forecast...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina again traded a full May shipment last week at +99 SN CNF China, a decrease from the last trade at +110 SN for an April shipment. Considering that...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Dumb Parents; Gibberish Labeling; WTO and Wallonia
The New York State Congress of Parents and Teachers has apparently decided to jump the shark by literally opposing GMOs in school meals, citing overwhelmin...
Market Commentary
Futures prices found buyers early during the overnight trading session, and they began to edge higher with the soy complex in the lead. The green numbers c...
Terminology; EU Irony; Trade De-Partisanization
Voting in the U.S. Congress had been increasingly partisan with Republicans favorable and Democrats opposed to free trade deals. Now the 2016 presidential...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Kenyan government has announced that it is raising the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) purchase price for maize by about 22 percent. However,...
Election 2016: A Look Two Weeks Out
The U.S. election is two weeks from today, so this seems like as good a time as any for a preview. Voters will choose a president, all 435 House members an...
Oilseed Highlights
The All India Poultry Exporters Association wants the government to either ban the importation of chicken meat produced with biotech feed ingredients or al...
Corn Market Dynamics
Having become confident that it has a good handle on total U.S. corn supplies for 2016/17, the market has already begun to switch its focus to the next two...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were mixed, but little changed in rather quiet trade overnight. What excitement there was came from Malaysian palm oil, which...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Minority Rights; Anti-Biotech Nonsense
The relative power balance of minority opinion versus the majority is the tipping point between successful democracy and future Brexits. Extreme Minority R...
Growth in Cheaper U.S. Crude Oil
As the market recovered this year, there has been growth in certain short positions on the part of producers and merchants. This could well suggest that U...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s domestic corn prices showed some volatility last week between northern and southern provinces as deep corn processors in the latter lacked sufficie...
Market Commentary
Markets opened slightly lower Sunday evening, but it didn’t take long before soybean futures turned positive. November soybean futures traded as much as 16...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Romania and Bulgaria is very quiet. While the domestic wheat price has increased about $10 over the last three weeks, farmers are still reluc...
Not Again in My Lifetime
Many farmers across the northern Plains, the new Corn Belt, are saying that they won’t see yields like this year's corn crop again in their lifetimes...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Demand Train Still Gaining Momentum
It is still tough to find anyone who is even leaning toward the bullish side of the ledger, but it is also becoming difficult to ignore the building demand...
RVOs Rule Proposal Sent to White House OMB
On Wednesday of this week, the U.S. EPA submitted its proposed RVOs rule for biofuel use under the RFS to the White House OMB. The question that remains is...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mistruths about Trade
Washington’s famous think tanks have opined on the future of trade policy, and the analysis is far more thoughtful than the complete falsehoods asser...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Keeping food prices down is key for Indian households. In order to do that and also maintain low inflation, the government has taken a step that would allo...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady in quiet overnight trade. Corn and soybean futures gained back some of yesterday’s losses to start today’s action. Corn was steady to h...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
India’s Chutzpah; Ignoring Elephant; Regime Change
Agriculture specifically is unlikely to be much affected by the U.S. election, but there are tangential issues with implications for the sector. Chutzpah T...
Oilseed Highlights
While USDA is forecasting a record U.S. soybean yield this year of 54 bushels/acre (3.63 MT/hectare), there is a great deal of evidence that it may be even...
The La Nina Dance
After one of the strongest El Ninos on record was officially declared over last June, the CPC issued a La Nina watch. That was then cancelled in early Sept...
Oilseed Highlights
While USDA is forecasting a record U.S. soybean yield this year of 54 bushels/acre (3.63 MT/hectare), there is a great deal of evidence that it may be even...
Hog Backlog; Cattle on Feed; Cattle Futures Contract
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Market Commentary
The overnight session was a relatively quiet one with corn and soybean prices trading a little higher and following up on yesterday’s firm finish while whe...
Oilseed Highlights
While USDA is forecasting a record U.S. soybean yield this year of 54 bushels/acre (3.63 MT/hectare), there is a great deal of evidence that it may be even...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Despite the continuous drop in basis in the U.S., Brazil and Argentina have decided to compete by lowering their levels against USG and PNW. The main compe...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices traded back and forth in overnight trading. Corn and wheat futures traded unchanged to a little lower, while soybeans were slightly hi...
Clinton versus Trump on Ag; Chemo-Marketing
Differences, nuances and agreement marked the outcome of a session today between former USDA Deputy Secretary Kathleen Merrigan representing the Clinton ca...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Feed wheat and feed barley FOB offer prices decreased in Ukraine but remained steady in other terms of trade. Meanwhile, milling wheat bid prices grew on t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Tanzania reports that its first official GM maize field trials, which involve a white drought-resistant variety, began last week and are expected to take a...
Market Commentary
Markets traded both sides during the overnight session as wheat, corn and soybean prices held near the high ends of their recent trading ranges. After grai...
Oilseed Highlights
U.S. farmers are in the process of harvesting the largest soybean crop ever along with a record yield. In many states, they are seeing yields far above ave...
USDA Trying to Wrap Up Six Years’ Work on GIPSA Rule
USDA has sent the White House OMB a draft of new livestock marketing and contracting regulations under GIPSA. Some of the controversial provisions in the o...
Soybean Market Dynamics
One might ask why the big crop/big demand year of 2016/17 is much different from 2015/16 when there was an almost record U.S. soybean crop absorbed by then...
China In-Country Analysis
Falling soymeal stocks and increasing soyoil prices, combined with inexpensive imported soybeans, have boosted Chinese crushing margins recently. U.S. soyb...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Cost of the Coming Winter
NOAA’s forecast that the coming winter will be colder than last year’s means energy costs will be on the rise. Livestock producers in the Midwest will cons...
Slow Chickens II; Irreversible Meaninglessness; Selective Overcapacity Policy
Development organizations are pushing for Africans to use indigenous chickens rather than improved, fast-growing flocks. Now, European animal rights campai...
Market Commentary
Soybeans rallied strongly today as global vegoil prices spiked early. NOPA’s report highlighting ending stocks and crushing rates added to the bullish fuel...
Random Thoughts from a North Asian Wheat Conference
From China’s non-WTO compliance to “gluten free” marketing and excess shuttle-train capacity, a recent wheat conference for North Asian wheat buyers reveal...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Black Sea wheat and corn prices are firmer this week, driven by the futures rallies in Paris, Chicago, and other global markets. Additionally, Ukrainian ra...