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Mercosur Regional Analysis

The last week was very surprising for corn in Argentina as well as Brazil and also an important factor in the big heat up in premiums. Despite the size of...

Market Commentary

Speculative soybean longs do not appear very worried about tomorrow’s stocks and acreage numbers. However, the history of periodic 1 March corn stock surpr...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian milling wheat prices quoted by traders grew as did those at the UBS ports. Traders’ feed wheat bid prices also increased along with export prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Farm and Trade Policy Tipping Points

Current farm policy is a vestige of a bygone era when caloric deficits were tangible and the tools of risk management and market information were imprecise...

Market Commentary

The rally of grain and soy futures prices marches on in a manner not seen since last summer. Again, the charge has been led by soyoil with the May contract...

The Transition Reports

The nature of agricultural markets is to always look ahead, and USDA's 1 March reports, especially the planting intentions, that will be released this Thur...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

According to the latest USDA country brief, Saudi Arabia will import just over 17 MMT of grain in 2015/16: 8.5 MMT of barley, 3.5 MMT of corn, 3.3 MMT of w...

U.S.-Argentina Trade and Investment Framework

The new U.S.-Argentina cooperative agreement is wide-ranging and covers areas such as technical assistance in domestic economic reform, global development...

Oilseed Highlights

The Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC), the government of India’s regulator responsible for issuing clearances for field trials of GM crops and...

Therapeutic Nonuse; China Corn

Glyphosate is now under intensified scrutiny in the U.S. as the inspector general for the U.S. EPA announces an investigation into how well the agency has...

Tough Time to Make a Profit

There’s no question that big profits were made during the boom times and balance sheets looked wonderful. The problem is that money is now going out the do...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Egypt's GASC purchased 60,000 MT of French wheat last week at $189.20 CNF after receiving seven offers in total. The fact that the GASC preferred to buy ju...

Perpetuating Inequities; Wrong Tree

American public attitude surveys show a continuing slide in public support for free trade, and that decline is encouraging politicians to use trade as a ne...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

This was a more interesting day in the markets. Corn and soybean futures were slightly lower overnight with wheat slightly higher. Wheat then found more ag...

China In-Country Analysis

The estimated average utilization rate of China's soybean processing industry decreased sharply last week as a majority of those facilities ceased producti...

2016 Fuel Consumption Track

Gasoline futures prices are now higher than ethanol futures prices for the first time in more than six months, a change being driven by a number of factors...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in grains and the soy complex were mixed and directionless as markets began to wind down ahead of the long holiday weekend. Things perked u...

China’s New Farm Policies – Maybe

China has been using its version of crop price supports to achieve income support and experienced a similar progression of results as occurred in the U.S...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Some elevators are warning farmers that they will not accept soybeans produced from Monsanto’s Roundup Ready 2Xtend strain unless it gains approval from th...

Pork Outlook

USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released tomorrow, and the market expects the data will be in accordance with the department's long-term base...

Trade Policy; Change; Labeling Ruse

The Japanese refuse to liberalize rice imports, the Americans won’t budge on sugar subsidies and export credits, and Europe will never accept GMOs or hormo...

Market Commentary

This week’s Turnaround Tuesday did not occur until today, Wednesday, but turning around is what grain and soy futures prices did amid moderate trading volu...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There was an FOB cargo of soybeans traded in Santos this week at +55 or 56 SK for April, while paper was bid at +50 SK. This seems to indicate port premium...

Cuban Paradise; Choco Diet; Deniers; Jobs

When the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba was forced to grow crops without inputs like chemicals or machinery – making it an organic mecca. To the Big Ag commu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Wheat and barley prices at the Russian market continued to decrease (in RUB expression). Rye and corn prices grew, however, with the latter showing a signi...

The Fading Cuban Embargo

The purpose of the Cuban embargo was to enable the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations to showcase their stance against evil communism, while the advert...

President Visits Cuba; Ag Secretary Signs Technical MOU

Since trade in agriculture and medicine was authorized in 2000, U.S. ag exports to Cuba grew to a high point of $685 million in 2008 before dropping steadi...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading volumes were not impressive, and this pattern continued during the day session. Noncommercial support sent soybean futures prices up 12 c...

TTIP Frustration; Mercosur; Labels; Fraud

In a signal that frustration is growing on the American side over Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, U.S. Ambassador to th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Palm oil futures prices rose today to a two-year high as a result of increased exports and expectations that production will decline because of reduced rai...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Egypt reports that current wheat supplies are sufficient until July 2016 and that it is planning to purchase 4-4.5 MMT of local stocks during the April-Jul...

Food Symptom – Economic Cause

For Cuba as with all other nations, adverse economic policy is the disease; poverty and hunger are the resulting symptoms.U.S. aggies have pitched their ho...

Wheat Could Get More Interesting

While the quick cold snap that occurred this weekend over the U.S. hard red winter wheat region had been forecast, the problem was that actual temperatures...

China In-Country Analysis

U.S. ethanol exports to China soared to 111,426,533 liters in January (+178 percent) at an average price of $.38 per liter ($482.69/MT). As there are only...

Market Commentary

Corn had a relatively quiet trading day, but the market was firm the entire session. The strong wheat market in the early part helped corn as did the stron...

Cattle on Feed Report

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 85,000 MT of “zero duty” import licenses for Ukrainian wheat, leaving a balance of only 140,000 MT under that quota for the rest of the ca...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

House Budget Committee Approves Budget Resolution

Rep.Marlin Stutzman (R-Indiana) and Rep. Dave Brat (R-Virginia) joined all Democrats on the committee in rejecting the budget plan, which may be indicative...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The soybean market tried to sustain a rally. The new crop November contract even scored a four-month high, while May again bumped up against resistance at...

Soybeans Keep Ticking

A record soybean crop in Brazil and another or near-record one in Argentina, coupled with U.S. soybean ending supplies projected to double from last year,...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's parliamentary committee on ethanol blending is not happy about the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP) and its current status. It wants a plan within th...

Oilseed Highlights

Because of the huge drop in India’s exports of non-biotech soymeal, animal feeders in Europe seeking imports of that variety have had to find alternative o...

Macroeconomics; Sugar Sin Tax; Dairy Pushers

Dairy producers are pushing back against a World Health Organization (WHO) proposal that would discourage what it terms “inappropriate” promotion of manufa...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Whether or not the luck of the Irish was involved on this St. Patrick’s Day, the lowered economic forecast from the Fed yesterday sent the U.S. dollar into...

The GMO Labeling Debate

GMO labeling is an emotionally thorny issue that is argued on the basis of food safety, but it has moved well beyond the science that should be the determi...

FAPRI Beef and Pork Projections Diverge from USDA’s

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri has issued its 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading in grain and soy futures found prices generally lower amid what can best be described as a lack of interest. That interest did not accele...

Rhetorical Context; GMO Label Endgame

A national rule on GMO labeling is inevitable. Today’s loss in the Senate by a compromise backed by aggies but opposed by most Democrats means one of...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Grain prices continued to drop overall (with the exception of milling wheat) at both the Russian and Ukrainian grain markets due to the strengthening local...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There were many soybean trades in Argentina last week. Cargoes were sold at levels of 10 SN for April and May shipment, but most interesting were the three...

Label Compromise; TPP Polling; Miscellany

A recent survey by Pat Cadell (23 February – 3 March 2016) of 1,950 Americans explained much about the politics of trade and the Trans-Pacific Partne...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA has reduced its forecast for U.S. soymeal usage in 2015/16 with a higher volume of canola meal imports from Canada cited as one of the reasons. Certai...

Global Trade Slowing Down

Global trade is down across the board, but it is not a harbinger of doom and gloom nor an indication that an inevitable recession will befall the world eco...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

A Few Odds and Ends

There have been various topics of interest and potential importance for commodity markets in the news during recent days with a few that particularly warra...

Market Commentary

The daily trading ranges were just 3 cents for corn and 6-7 cents for both wheat and soybeans. In closing mostly a bit lower, grains and soybeans joined wi...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The Turkish government has increased the local value-added tax (VAT) on imported DDGS and corn gluten feed in order to protect domestic soybean/sunseed cru...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ethanol Exports and Imports

While the 2015 U.S. ethanol exports total of 844 million gallons was 2 million gallons below the 846 million gallons in 2014, this was still only the third...

Another Weather Outlook

Will this strong El Nino winter, which left super unusual weather patterns in its wake, affect the North American growing season?It is soon to be all about...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 991,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, a decline from 1.6 MMT during the same week a year ago that was largely due to the Russian...

China In-Country Analysis

The lack of a clear direction from China’s central government regarding the unwinding of domestic corn reserves and the huge buildup of cornstarch inventor...

Market Commentary

Nearly all of the action today was in the corn pit, and there was a good volume of trade. Meanwhile, wheat finished the day with decent gains in Minneapoli...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As poultry meat demand continues to rise in India and with “safe food” a requirement of both the government and domestic customers, there could be opportun...

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets were steady to higher overnight, while wheat was slightly easier. That pattern held true today. Trading volume was pretty average...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Attract Young Farmers, or Retain Middle-Aged Farmers?

Given the demographic history of farming in the post-World War II era, the actual issue may not be the number of new young farmers coming into the business...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Heading into the spring planting season, weather is starting to become at least interesting across the Northern Hemisphere. The U.S. winter wheat crop is g...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

While farmers may have a positive view of the Indian government’s action on Tuesday that reduced the royalty Monsanto can charge for planting its patented...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Miscellany

Following this week’s bilateral discussions, EU Trade Minister Cecelia Malmström says that the U.S. must acquiesce to even stronger protections of geograph...

Still More on Position Limits

Dodd-Frank required that the CFTC set speculative position limits for futures contracts based on physical commodities “where appropriate” in order to deter...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s WASDE may not have given markets anything new, but today featured a notable amount of outside news for traders to ponder. Meanwhile, the U.S. d...

Brazilian Real and the Global Broiler Market

There are three factors favoring Brazil's exports on the global broiler market, which are forecast to reach a record-high volume in 2016, and two are relat...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures traded in a relatively narrow 8 cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before ending the session quietly with a small gain. As with co...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's domestic feed corn prices declined as a result of the stronger UAH, larger offer and lower export offer prices. Meanwhile, prices at the Ukrainia...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TPP Over-Enthusiasm; Trudeau and Dairy; Inequality

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is pushing the Diet to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement during its current session in an effort to b...

Argentina Will Take Years to Recover

It is easy to see the damage the policies of the Kirchner government have inflicted on the Argentine agricultural sector. The heretofore large export taxes...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Paraguay is still looking for soybean demand with offers at 38/40 SK for April-May and 42 SN for June-July shipments. Meanwhile, the market in Brazil has b...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Chinese Chicken Imports

Following its audit in May 2015 to determine whether China maintains standards that conform with three key U.S. poultry inspection laws, FSIS has decided t...

Market Commentary

The overnight session saw grain and soy futures prices trade lower following Monday’s technically disappointing trade. That weakness carried into the early...

Ag Review: Opportunities in the Philippines

Sorting Through the Hazards With over 100 million people and an investment grade rating, the Philippines is an important player in the global agricultural...

Mandatory QR; PC Ag; Ethanol Rent

The politicization of agriculture in Europe continues with a report by Reuters that the EU will not be extending the approved use of glyphosate through 203...

Too Short for Comfort

Under the seemingly endless barrage of bearish inputs and analysis, grain and soy prices have basically been headed downhill since last July. In this marke...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

According to the latest reports from Morocco, the 2016 wheat harvest could be 54 percent smaller than last year with possibly the lowest levels in four yea...

Market Commentary

Markets were higher overnight, and that buying followed through to today’s trade. There wasn’t any specifically bullish news, but there was a great deal of...

March USDA WASDE

It's USDA report time again, and the trade will be closely watching the corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil and Argentina in addition to U.S...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Dereliction of Labeling Duty

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has chosen sides in the biotech labeling debate, and it is with the mandatory approach of his political compatriots in the Senat...

China In-Country Analysis

For the second consecutive week, China's average domestic corn price dropped because of downward market pressure. The weekly wholesale price will likely fa...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The new crop (August/September) Bulgarian feed wheat traded at around €146-€147 ($160-$161) FOB last week, but the offers have climbed to €149 today. The m...

Buy High; Spinning out of Control

The recent announcement that Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI) just closed on a purchase of 22,100 acres in central Illinois in a deal valued at $197 million ($...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India’s 2016/17 union budget was released and has been hailed as rural-centric with an emphasis on agricultural growth and sustainability. When the Modi go...

Continuing Pressure on the Short Side of Wheat

One of the important misconceptions regarding the wheat market today is that prices are low because world demand has slowed. This is simply not true by any...

Market Commentary

Yesterday it was the wheat market putting on a sharp rally as funds moved to cover some of their vast short position. Today it was the soybean market’s tur...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

RINs and Taxes Pushing Ethanol Use in U.S. and Brazil

The bear market for crude oil is having its impact on biofuels around the globe. In the U.S., ethanol prices are higher than gasoline, putting a limit on d...

Tales from Export Sales

This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...

Final COOL Rule; Chicken Supply; Eggs

One apparent impact from the repeal of COOL for beef and pork could be seen by reviewing the origin of feeder pig receipts. Among the 86,698 receipts, abou...

Market Commentary

Wheat gained a couple of cents in overnight trading, while corn and soybeans were up by fractions. However, the tone was set for the day session, which did...

Oilseed Highlights

The Chinese government’s efforts to restrict canola imports from Australia and Canada may be of benefit to the EU if Ukrainian rapeseed exports decrease as...

TPP Supports; GM Labeling; Ag-Less CFTC

U.S. commodity groups are beginning to realize that regional trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that only deal with market access an...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Less Bearish Thoughts; Cuba and Trumped

It is easy to become glum in this bearish market, but there is a sort of tarnished silver lining. Make Agriculture Great Again It is easy to become glum in...

Market Commentary

While grain and soy futures markets could not mount a successful rally yesterday as most outside markets did, prices for grains and the soy complex (except...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Argentine soybean market was active this week with trades for April-July at levels of 6 SN for April and May, 10 SN for June and 14 for July FOB. At th...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Grain prices at the Russian market fluctuated insignificantly (in RUB expression) during the week in review. Meanwhile, the ag minister released a statemen...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Bright Spots: TPP; GMO Pre-Emption; COOL

Everyone agrees that the U.S. Congress could not pass the Tran-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement if it was presented for a vote today, but there is optim...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Due to the current drought situation, South Africa will be relaxing some of its GM grain rules in order to allow maize imports from the U.S. and Mexico. Wh...

U.S. Agriculture Outlook: Part Two

When trying to determine future supply and demand, the usual question marks involve producer planting decisions as well as weather conditions during spring...

Heritage Foundation Budget Backs Off Ag Programs

The Heritage plan would cut federal spending by $10.5 trillion over 10 years and lead to a balanced budget by 2023. Given the source, surprisingly little o...

Oilseed Highlights

The Chinese government is tightening its phytosanitary inspections of rapeseed/canola from Canada and Australia, supposedly out of initial concern that&nbs...

Heritage Foundation Budget Backs Off Ag Programs

The Heritage plan would cut federal spending by $10.5 trillion over 10 years and lead to a balanced budget by 2023. Given the source, surprisingly little o...

Market Commentary

With most outside markets trading higher today, grain and soy markets seemed poised for another “Turnaround Tuesday” rally effort. The best the corn market...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

KC and Chicago wheat futures traded steady to slightly higher much of the session with Mpls under slight pressure. Today was also first notice day for deli...

China In-Country Analysis

The market has been closely watching how reform proposals noted in the central government’s No. 1 agricultural policy document will be implemented. Meanwhi...

Loss Suits; Fourth Revolution

If the Internet is an example of how energy, mechanization and digitization can be melded to better inform the public, the lesson is that there is an equal...

Fuel Market Outlook for Ethanol

While its prices are down and squeezing margins, ethanol is still more expensive than gasoline, which limits discretionary blending. Moreover, production h...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The remaining exportable wheat surplus in Serbia totals about 800,000 MT with approximately 500,000 MT exported since the start of the campaign. Despite th...

Planting Intentions or Bankers’ Intentions?

It appears that there are bankers now offering farmers advice on what crops to plant along with their decisions regarding operating lines of credit.A call...

Agricultural Outlook

USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson tried to identify the silver lining this week, saying that input costs would be lower and off-farm income would be hi...

Market Commentary

Corn was under some selling pressure all day, and trading volume was above average. Another very strong day for the U.S. dollar also helped preserve the be...

Crop Insurance and the Budget

Crop insurance has been the most popular risk management tool among producers over the past two farm bills. It has also been a program supported by most me...

More On the Outlook Forum Numbers

The acreage numbers used weren’t surprising. The talk over most of the winter has been that U.S. farmers want to plant more corn. There might be some exter...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The chemical sector is an integral part of the Indian economy. Because of the country's fuel blending program, though, it must rely on imports for a large...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Renewed Hormone Retaliation; Farm Bill Subsidies

USDA reports that the Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs in the 2014 Farm Bill cost $500 million dollars more than the direct payme...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was quiet with grains and soybeans holding small gains. The release of USDA’s acreage projections for 2016/17 gave markets something new...

Feeder Outlook; Red Meat Production; White Angus

Despite less expensive feed last year, high cattle prices until the end of the year kept feedlot margins mostly in the red. With an expanded cattle supply...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA released its annual long-range projections for major U.S. crops earlier this week. While it does forecast a small boost in soybean yields, some life s...

U.S. Agriculture Outlook

USDA's Outlook Forum got underway this morning where its planted acreage and farmgate price projections were released. Unlike the initial and final estimat...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's domestic milling wheat, feed wheat and feed barley prices all increased  during 15-19 February as a result of the weakening national currenc...

Market Commentary

Ongoing weakness in crude oil and financial markets put more downward pressure on grain and soy futures prices overnight. Then the mid-session rally of the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine corn premiums are coming down slowly from the high 50s to 48-50 CK for April and May shipment. It seems there are various buyers awaiting 40-45 C...

Brexit Symbolism; GMO Hindsight

The UK’s Agriculture Ministry is apparently split over Brexit. Meanwhile, British farmers are no doubt frustrated with rules from Brussels such as the requ...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Tiptoeing into Climatology

One of the most studied patterns used by climatologists is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, commonly referred to as ENSO. However, there are other factors...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The latest FAO report on Iran’s grain crops shows small increases for all in 2015  with both wheat and barley production up about 7 percent. Overall 2...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Brazilian farmers are increasingly concerned that some states are beginning to impose ICMS taxes (value-added taxes on sales and services) on commodities m...

Food Control; Export Taxes; Campaign Topics

Under pressure from European political leaders, the Continent’s food manufacturers have conceded to an effort at making their products more healthful. Howe...

Market Commentary

It was Turnaround Tuesday with a vengeance. Prices were mostly lower but also largely lacking buyers or sellers in slow overnight trade. Corn posted an alm...

Argentina Update

Mauricio Marci was elected president of Argentina on 22 November 2015 based on a reform agenda he promised as a market-oriented conservative. Since he took...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures responded to the sharp gains in crude and financial markets, trading 8-9 higher at mid-morning before weakening towards noon. Meanwhile, co...

China In-Country Analysis

Given the current state of China’s economy and its slowdown, the food inflation spike in January to the highest level since May 2014 plus the notable incre...

RFS and GMO; TTIP Life Support

U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet this week in Brussels, but actual progress on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) may be going bac...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Return of Monetary Velocity

Commodity prices are down, the stock market is volatile, and global economic news is worrisome. Nonetheless, it looks like the U.S. economy is about to gro...

Federal Crop Revenue Insurance

It was the excellent revenue insurance program that was most responsible for pushing cash land rental rates and actual land values so high and so quickly d...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

It has become difficult to find offers for Russian 12.5 protein wheat below $180 FOB, while German wheat with similar quality is offered at $175 FOB. Meanw...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The government of India (GOI) released the 2nd Agricultural Production Estimates for the 2015/16 crop on 15 February 2016, which includes the rabi season (...

Market Commentary

Grain and oilseed futures were uneventful today with very narrow trading ranges. Volume was strong in corn, while it was just average in wheat and soybeans...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Lentils are now trading at record high prices with peas expected to follow. These high old crop prices and relatively strong new crop prices will have an i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

2016-2017 Crude Oil Forecast

The real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the world as weighted by oil consumption, which increased by an estimated 2.4 percent in 2015, indicates...

Argentina over Cuba; Smarter, Fatter

President Obama is receiving more press coverage (and more political ridicule) over his upcoming trip to Cuba, but his second leg in the voyage to Argentin...

Market Commentary

Today’s price action shows that without the recent bout of short covering, grain and soy markets are starved for direction. March options expire tomorrow (...

USDA Releases Long-Term Outlook

In preparation for its Outlook Conference next week, USDA released its 2016-25 baseline outlook today, which indicates growth in a number of areas. USDA Re...

Oilseed Highlights

French company Avril has agreed to invest in a partnership with Dow AgroSciences to develop a high-protein winter rapeseed for planting in France. The rape...

What is Missing?

It is nearly eight years since the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession, and many central banks have used aggressive monetary policies to stimu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

With the Brazilian lineup growing and Chinese margins improving, soybean demand is expected to return to Argentina. The last trades were performed at 11 SN...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Costly Misleading Activists; Healthy Food; Preemption

USDA is increasing the amount of healthy foods, including perishable fruits and vegetables, that stores must stock in order to become an approved retailer...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Wheat and barley prices at the Russian market moved in different directions during the week in review, but they mainly dropped as rye and corn prices grew...

Market Commentary

Renewed short covering helped grain and soy markets to recover overnight losses and move modestly higher, a pretty apt description of the price action thro...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

A recent study released in Europe indicated Africa’s failure to adopt GM crops cost its agriculture sector $2.5 billion from 2008 to 2013. It further noted...

Oilseed Highlights

The Philippine government is scrambling to publish new regulations governing the importation, consumption and production of GM crops by 23 February. This i...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures trade was rather dull with low volume overnight and again during the day session. Prices traded on both sides of Monday’s closes in n...

Potpourri of Odds and Ends

Despite the usual lack of important fresh inputs for markets to digest, there is a seasonal trend for grain and soy futures prices to move slowly and modes...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

EPA in Court Over the RFS – Seven Times

The latest two lawsuits facing U.S. EPA are from Valero, the nation’s largest refiner and third-largest ethanol producer. The first petitions that EPA move...

TTIP; Regionalization; India; Cuba

The EU achieved a significant victory in the WTO where a dispute settlement panel ruled that Russia’s import ban on European pigs and pig meat was “disprop...

Crop Program Spending

Although the payment estimates from the president’s budget and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for FY 2016 are relatively close and within standard e...

Market Commentary

It was another day of very narrow trading ranges for corn, wheat and the soy complex with volume more normal or average. Heading into today, managed money...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

North American Wheat Outlook Changing

Projected tight wheat stocks in Canada and more ample supplies in the U.S. are likely to impact planting decisions with implications for the wheat outlook...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The state governments in India have taken effective steps over the past few months to control the supplies and costs of pulses in the face of a potentially...

Farm Bill Trouble; Fat Bastard

One plank in the Republican candidacy of Donald Trump for the American presidency is frustration with so-called political correctness. He would be blowing...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Too Much Pursuing Too Little

Too much supply pursuing too little demand has been the predominant common thread tying up grain and soy markets for more than a year. The markets’ job is...

CME Actions on Cattle Market; NCBA Response

The CME yesterday announced specific actions that it will take regarding the live cattle futures market, which followed complaints from two producer groups...

Oilseed Highlights

While Russian Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev denied that his country's newly announced ban on U.S. corn and soybean imports was in any way politica...

Market Commentary

Despite another sinking spell by world stock markets, overnight trading in grain and soy futures was low in terms of volume and very quiet in terms of pric...

Moscow Enablers; How Sweet it Isn’t

The media reports the gloating of some activists as more countries consider imposing taxes on sugary drinks as a purported health initiative. However, the...

Market Commentary

Soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were mostly all sharply steady today. There was small selling pressure into the close, but that only dropped prices a p...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Grain prices at both the Russian and Ukrainian markets continued to rise in the local currencies due to their devaluations. Meanwhile, Russia plans to impl...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina's corn market is quiet. Origination becomes a few dollars more expensive every day, and replacement basis is above FOB offers. Because of this, c...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The latest USDA FAS GAIN report for Turkey shows 2015/16 production of wheat, barley and corn will be higher. Although imports of these three grains are ex...

Market Commentary

The day started with another round of gloom and doom as well as a risk-off mentality. Grain and oilseed futures markets were little changed overnight and t...

Oilseed Highlights

India’s soybean processors have greatly reduced their crush volume due to certain factors and had asked the government to take specific action to boost imp...

USDA Report Maintains the Bearish Trend

There was nothing bullish in USDA’s numbers today. However, USDA did tinker with corn more than anticipated in mid-winter and revised the world wheat endin...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

President’s Budget Proposes Crop Insurance Cuts

Crop insurance baseline spending cuts are to occur over several years and come from a 10 percent reduction in all policies containing a “harvest price opti...

TTIP Gone; Ag Pain; Energy Bill Threats

A bipartisan bill entitled the “Energy Policy Modernization Act” is stranded as U.S. Senate negotiators hold proxy fights over things like aid to Flint, Mi...

February USDA Reports

The trade will likely focus on crop production estimates for Brazil and Argentina in tomorrow’s USDA reports. Even though no one expects significant change...

Ethanol’s Role; Big Trouble; Meatless Philosophy

China has record stocks of unpalatable rice, rancid vegetable oil, tainted wheat and moldy corn, and Beijing is trying to square how to make the surpluses...

China In-Country Analysis

Newly released data indicates U.S. agricultural exports to China declined in December 2015 for some products, but there were notable increases for others...

Market Commentary

The grain and oilseed markets were mostly steady overnight, but that changed when U.S. financial markets opened with big losses. Those losses accelerated q...

Ag Review: Big Data

From Cold War to Farms Big data got a slow start in agriculture and many fear some of the outcomes it offers, but opportunity is certainly one of them. Lin...

FY 2017 Budget Preview

Typically, the submission of the president’s budget sparks a number of congressional hearings and starts the process of Congress formulating its own FY 201...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The collapse of India's agriculture sector is apparent throughout the country and  results from several factors. Due to the needs of a growing populat...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Ever wonder how dirt cheap energy could be so bearish today when that used to be a bullish economic factor, or how some people know who’s buying and sellin...

Market Commentary

Wheat was steady overnight but turned lower at today’s opening. The selling pushed the March Chicago contract below $4.70, and that triggered more technica...

Cotton: Farm Programs No, Commodity Certificates Yes

While USDA has determined that it does not have the authority to designate cottonseed as a minor oilseed under the 2014 Farm Bill, it did announce the elig...

TPP; China Acquisitions; Countercyclical; VW

The TPP agreement was signed this week in New Zealand, and some ministers proclaimed that they would not wait for the Americans before pushing it through t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

GM Doors Open; Taxing Burgers and Oil

China National Chemical’s (ChemChina’s) purchase of Syngenta will not only lead to improved crop yields in China, but it should also create a path for comp...

Selling Commodity Markets

It is not easy to change long-entrenched, negative public perceptions about futures markets and speculators, much less explain why they are important in ev...

Japan-Australia Trade Agreement Threatens U.S. Beef in Japan

Unlike the U.S., Australia inked a direct bilateral deal with Japan in 2014, the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA), which took effect...

Market Commentary

The weaker USD helped support grain and soy futures prices overnight amid decent trading volume. However, its influence waned during day session futures tr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

After notifying Congress yesterday that he lacks the legal authority to provide subsidies to cottonseed under the PLC and ARC programs, USDA  Secretar...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn lineups are astonishing everyone in Argentina. More than 1.5 MMT were loaded in January, and close to 2 MMT are slated for February. March/April/May l...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While some grain market experts are expecting a 35 percent boost in Ukrainian wheat exports in MY 2015/16 compared with the past two years, there are also...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Complex Food System Demands

Food system managers express frustration over the seemingly simplistic and yet complicated demands coming from consumers. In many ways, their demands are o...

Market Commentary

Futures price action during the day session more or less continued the overnight pattern with wheat closing a few pennies higher, corn down less than 2 cen...

Market Commentary

Grain and oilseeds markets firmed up at today’s opening. The most positive market action today was across the soy complex with corn trying to follow the ra...

Imagined Demand; Farm Bill Trouble; Wrong in Iowa

The ink is barely dry on the 2014 Farm Bill and its implementation is incomplete. However, lobbyists in Washington are already advising that it is time to...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Zambia reports that it has received many maize export requests from neighboring countries that it is unable to meet. Zimbabwe is said to have asked for 500...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

According to an Indonesian government official, the French Senate passed biodiversity legislation on 21 January that would impose a very high progressive t...

Cruz Wins Iowa Republican Caucus Despite Opposing RFS

Cruz stated that the RFS itself, specifically the EPA-issued Required Volume Obligations (RVOs), limited the use of corn ethanol compared with the statutor...

Market Commentary

Overnight selling accelerated at today’s opening, notably in wheat. Corn and soy markets did recover most of their losses this morning, but those minor gai...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TPP; TTIP; Scofflaws

The EU Commission has determined that there is no need for continent-wide legislation to deal with perceived unfair trading power by wholesalers/grocers ov...

The El Nino Winter Continues

Weather was in the market news last week as it always is, but there was also another round of discussion regarding El Nino/La Nina and the weather patterns...

China In-Country Analysis

China's soymeal inventories continued the pattern established after the first week of 2016 and dropped by 80,600 MT (-5.6 percent)  last week to 1.35...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Demand is difficult to find, and there are several other competitive origins. Meanwhile, Ukrainian...

CME Addresses Live Cattle Futures Contract Concerns

In his speech at the NCBA's Cattle Marketing and International Trade Committee on Friday, CME President Terrence Duffy laid out a number of reforms to be i...

Weak Science; Chobani Chopped

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Steve Nissen and Nina Teicholz show that effectively attacking the U.S. government’s dietary guidelines is like shootin...

U.S. Fed Sounds Soft as Bank of Japan Goes Negative

The Fed added some language to its statement following yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that was not included in December’s, which...

Market Commentary

Wheat tried to mount a small rally today in sympathy with higher corn and soybean markets, but it never found enough buying to spark much of a move. There...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Soybean Outlook

Soybeans are much cheaper to grow than corn, and input costs per acre will be a factor in many farmers’ planting decisions this spring when weather can als...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

There is immense pressure on GOI to allow the trade of GM crops in India as such trade will continue to rise with full implementation of the Trans-Pacific...

A Few Trends to Watch

Market analysts try to identify trends and frequently explain a market’s short-term price action as part or confirmation of one. They also occasionally vie...

Growing Concern over Live Cattle Futures

The discussion is focused on whether there are structural problems in the cattle futures market. At the core is the general issue of high frequency trading...

Market Commentary

Before USDA’s morning announcement of canceled soybean sales, grain and soy prices were slightly lower during the overnight session with trading volume no...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TPP Trouble; Free Trade Decline

The resignation of top Japanese Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiator Akira Amari due to an aide’s bribery charges (he took money too but declared it)...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. biodiesel industry has renewed its efforts to convince Congress to change the recipients of the current $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit from blende...

Market Commentary

U.S. stocks were slightly lower early in the day, but they recovered to show small gains as the Fed meeting finished. Neither anticipation of the Fed’s lat...

TPP; Beef; Ethanol; Duo

U.S. cattle producers, upset that prices for their animals have slid precipitously from previous highs, will be happy to learn that Europe is having better...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

In Argentina, there is a rapid heat up in soybean basis. 20 days ago, cargoes traded at a negative level of 9 SN below CBOT. This week trades are being mad...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian grain prices continued on an upward trend in RUB expression on the domestic market. They kept dropping in USD expression, however, and demand incre...

Backwards U.S. Farm Policy

 One of the purported goals of the White House-sponsored “Rural Council” awarding assistance to “Local Foods, Local Places” (LFLP) partner communities...

Natural Gas Consumption and Price Up

 EIA reported this week that marketed natural gas in 2015 was priced 6 percent higher on average than 2014 levels, while it also has projected that co...

Oilseed Highlights

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznador) today indicated it may soon prohibit U.S. soybean imports because...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures trade was rather dull and low volume in nature overnight as well as again during the day session. Prices traded on both sides of Mond...

China and the Soybean Market

China’s economic slowdown may have a direct negative impact on the volume of copper or crude oil it imports, but does this have a similar effect on its imp...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

More details have been released regarding the Egyptian government’s program to become self-sufficient in wheat. The plan is to reclaim 1.5 million feddan (...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Weather Politics

While the House of Representatives will not return to session now until 1 February, the Senate has enough members in DC to convene tomorrow morning. That b...

Market Commentary

Corn managed to eke out miniscule gains when the soy and wheat markets moved to new daily highs in the last hour of trading, but it couldn’t hold even thos...

Pig in a Poke; UnGRAS Selective Breeding

When the U.S. Congress gave extra incentives for the production of a fuel (cellulosic ethanol) that did not exist, too many naive policymakers thought it w...

China In-Country Analysis

China's average domestic corn price dropped for the second consecutive week, hitting its lowest level since 19 November. As of last Friday, it stood at RMB...

Potential U.S. Corn Balance Sheet

There are already a number of private analysts issuing guesses on what farmers will plant in 2016. Most are looking for more corn and soybean acres as well...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Egypt’s GASC bought 235,000 MT of Romanian, French and Russian wheat last week at an average price of $189.17/MT, approximately $1.50 cheaper than what the...

SmartLabel; Ruse 65; Iowa Canary

A small group of U.S. senators has expressed concern that the food industry’s SmartLabel initiative is inaccessible to the poor. However, there are at leas...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India is importing corn for the first time in 16 years, limited for use by only actual end users. Non-GM is specified and is being sourced from Ukraine. Ho...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The bearish psychology that has blanketed agricultural markets for many months has masked a significant developing story. That story is the severe drought...

Market Commentary

Commodity markets started strong this morning, pushed up against technical resistance and broke down when that resistance couldn’t be penetrated. Weekly U...

Federal Budget Outlook

This week CBO released a preview of its annual Budget and Economic Outlook for the 2016-2026 period. If the 2016 deficit projection is accurate, this will...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Prices and Production Adjustments

Today production in South America or the Black Sea region and demand from China, North Africa or Southeast Asia are as important and influential to markets...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets were active overnight with prices edging higher in line with outside markets. Trading quieted some during the day session with soybea...

Cooking the Books; Sweet Mess; Polling

U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) knows he isn’t going to like the outcome of the U.S. International Trade Commission’s (ITC’s) review of the Trans-Pacif...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA Ending Grass-Fed/Natural Beef PVP

USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has withdrawn two voluntary marketing claim certifications for beef under the Process Verified Program (PVP) as...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina's farmers have been seeking the recently enacted changes in the country's export policies to boost their incomes as well as improve their crop ro...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade reports that domestic companies have now received licenses to export 400,000 MT of corn to the EU,...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures markets were buoyed yesterday by the macro influences from the financial sector, and they were pulled back today by those same influe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Papering Over; Tardy; Local Poisoning; Hoarders

The Obama administration is suggesting that complaints from industry over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) can be resolved through implementation plans...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There was a great deal of movement this week in the Argentine soybean market with five to seven trades completed at levels of -2 FOB for 15 April and 58 SN...

An Updated View of Corn Supply/Demand

While USDA's lowering of the final 2015/16 U.S. corn production estimate in the January WASDE was a mild surprise, its forecast for ending stocks was adjus...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

India Revamps and Expands Crop Insurance

This new model will more than double the government’s fiscal cost for premium subsidies, but it is also expected to more than double the amount of crop cov...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Low levels of precipitation are affecting South Africa's intended maize plantings for 2016 as well as those of Zambia. With farmers in both countries expec...

Protectionism; Legality; Commodity Cycle

South Korea has once again completely banned all imports of U.S. broiler meat due to a geographically limited outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza...

Oilseed Highlights

Soyoil has clearly gained the most demand in China during this decade. Its consumption is forecast to be one-third greater in 2015/16 than in 2010/11 despi...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets as well as other commodities were caught up in surging world equity markets, which were heaving a macro sigh of relief that China’s g...

Ethanol Issues and 2016 Outlook

While the controversy over the 2014, 2015, and 2016 RFS and RVOs continues, the EIA and USDA released their monthly forecasts for this year's ethanol deman...

Market Commentary

Corn, wheat and soybean futures markets had another mixed session. Everything was lower early, but corn and wheat rallied to trade 3-4 higher by midmorning...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There were two interesting presentations at farm meetings this week. The first was a weather recap by the climatologist from the University of North Dakota...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI has issued a new seed price control order, effective March 2016, which aims to fix the sale price of cotton seed (with GM technology) as well as contro...

Transatlantic Policies; Abetting Liars

Political analysts credit the rise of unconventional candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders to public frustration with the duplicity of convention...

TPP Handwriting; Shame on Chobani

U.S. agriculture is a major beneficiary of the TPP, but the sector is only really important in a minority of congressional districts. The rest of the busin...

Market Commentary

It has taken a few days, but the effect of Tuesday’s USDA reports, which were seen as surprisingly bullish, seems to have largely worn off. Meanwhile, USDA...

Trends and Fundamentals

The small declines in estimated 2015 U.S. corn and soybean production in this week’s WASDE along with the smaller winter wheat plantings for 2016/17 will n...

Oilseed Highlights

There have been conflicting reports regarding whether Brazil’s soybean sector has asked the government there to file a WTO complaint against U.S. soybean s...

R-CALF USA Calls for Antitrust Investigation into Cattle Markets

R-CALF USA sent a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee on 5 January that requested an investigation into “potential antitrust and anticompetitive condu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

According to Rosselkhoznadzor data, Russia exported 23.6 MMT of grain as of 12 January and since the beginning of MY 2015/16. 35.57 MMT were exported in 20...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Old crop corn continues to be traded in the Argentine market. At the FOB market, exporters are still offering their purchases from the FAS (before the elim...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in grain and soy futures found both sides of yesterday’s closes, but prices did not stray far in either direction. Trading seemed subdued c...

Policy Machinations; Unnatural Edge

Just as Russia reaches the point of becoming the world’s largest wheat exporter, the government is proposing a move that could undermine that positioning...

The USDA Reports

USDA released its reports  today, which cover final production estimates for fall-harvested U.S. crops, 1 December quarterly stocks, winter wheat plan...

State of the Union Preview: Trade and the 2016 Campaign

With the 2016 election looming, tonight's State of the Union address is expected to have a sustained emphasis on the president's accomplishments. One Obama...

Oilseed Highlights

While the reports were slightly positive for U.S. soybeans, that does not offset the overall negative outlook for the sector in the year ahead due to sever...

Market Commentary

When USDA lowered its production estimates for 2015 corn and soybeans today, it caught managed money funds leaning the wrong way. Wheat markets were domina...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Israel and Turkey are reported by Ukraine to be in discussions regarding FTAs that would cover its grains, oilseeds and agricultural equipment along with f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn, wheat and soybean futures were steady overnight, although they turned decidedly lower once today’s session opened. Wheat and corn were down the harde...

Tomorrow’s USDA’s Numbers

Even though the average trade estimate for corn production shows very little change from the November USDA report, there are a number of analysts who belie...

China In-Country Analysis

The projected drop in soybean imports during January and February should give the major crushers some added breathing room as they work through the massive...

For the Dogs; Local Canard

After Australian Green Party leader Richard Di Natale declared that GMOs were not unsafe for humans, the Australian National Farmers’ Federation asked that...

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly higher overnight, and those gains turned into a mini short covering rally this morning. Outside markets were also mostly higher t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Crop Budget

The crop budget worksheets are of course only estimates, and virtually every producer will have a different set of numbers. Yields are always the key facto...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI is permitting PEC Limited, a State Trading Enterprise (STE),  to import 500,000 MT of corn for poultry feed and starch manufacturers under the tar...

Outlook for Brazilian Real

While much attention has been focused on the value of the U.S. dollar since the U.S. Federal Reserve Board modified monetary policy and started to raise in...

Gamble by Campbell; Dangerous Maize; ISDS

The UK’s organic food promotion entity, the Soil Association, has gone beyond its warnings against chemicals and GMOs and now castigates one of the most pr...

Oilseed Highlights

Lower export sales were anticipated last week because of the New Year holiday. However, today’s USDA export sales report indicated net soybean export sales...

USDA’s Monthly WASDE

All WASDEs are important, but some are considered more so than others. Each January issue will contain USDA/NASS’s final production estimates for fall harv...

TPP Challenges; No Pudding, Some Meat

A larger problem for the TPP is that even the pact’s supporters in the U.S. (the business community) have mostly endorsed it with the caveat that it needs...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Dietary Guidelines Released

Today the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services jointly released the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. At the time of the...

Market Commentary

After early weakness, most corn futures contracts closed unchanged or near thereto. Meanwhile, in the face of all the macro turmoil, soy complex futures pe...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While Argentine farmers continue to claim that they are not receiving the maximum prices exporters can pay for the goods, largely because of the large stoc...

Land Grab; China Biotech; Biofuel Cruising

Some in the biofuel community are lamenting that U.S. EPA slightly reduced the blend requirements for their prized fuel, but the U.S. Navy has announced pl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

According to sunflower oil traders, decreasing export prices may lead Ukrainian producers to consider a significant response. Those prices had dropped to $...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices were lower as the overnight session ended and again as the day session opened. However, when March corn failed to break below...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

It is reported that fewer than half of the maize plantings in South Africa have been completed due to the severe drought. With yellow maize prices up about...

Bundy Beef Subsidy; Transatlantic Shipping

An armed gang masquerading as honest hard-working cattle ranchers retains control of a federal wildlife refuge in Oregon. One accomplishment of this privat...

Too Many Bears?

There is no denying that grain and soy markets have been, and continue to be, driven by a barrage of bearish supply/demand fundamentals. However, when mark...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures contracts closed up about 1 cent except for January, which gained 3.25 cents and is now at a 10.5 cent premium to March. The inverse has be...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

As a result of recent policy changes by the Argentine government, farmers are now expected to double wheat plantings in the next growing season and corn pl...

Input Costs – Natural Gas

While grains were 19 percent lower on the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), energy was down 41 percent. However, there may be a silver lining t...

Market Commentary

Rains across the dry areas in central and northeastern Brazil did materialize over the weekend with more in the forecasts. This precipitation coupled with...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Reality of Low Prices

As they begin planning for 2016, many producers are now thinking the big bull market might have been the worst thing to happen to production agriculture.20...

NME China; Processed Labor; Oil Market

The U.S. is asking the EU to join in opposing China’s elevation next year to “Market Economy Status,” which may make antidumping cases more difficult to up...

China In-Country Analysis

Early last week at the 2015 Provincial Economic Working Conference, provincial authorities announced resolutions to continue subsidizing local corn process...

WOTUS and GM Labeling Outlook for 2016

While 2015 ended with passage of a major budget and appropriations bill, the WOTUS rule and legislation regarding the mandatory labeling of GM  foods...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

While Argentine feed wheat is trading at $155 FOB, which makes it the world’s cheapest feed wheat/grain, most EU importers are not willing to purchase it b...

New Era for Egg and Layer Industry Has Begun

More than a half-dozen companies have announced just this month their plans for procuring only cage-free eggs in the future. Overall, more than two dozen h...

A Cautious Look at 2016

Big crops along with growing grain and soybean stocks will continue to be the most important underlying fundamental factor for futures markets and cash mar...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Organic Checkoff; TPP; Bear Market Bailout

The new year will likely bring the publication of a proposed rule by USDA instituting a checkoff program for organic crop producers. The proposal is contro...

Market Commentary

Markets on this last trading day of 2015 acted very much as they have for quite a while. Noncommercial traders are carrying large short positions in wheat...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Agriculture Minister Aleksandr Tkachov indicated that the 104.3 MMT of grain harvested (in clean weight) covers the total 69.9 MMT required for dom...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While it has become common practice for exporters to fill all of their storage capacity with corn during December and January in preparation for March ship...

Market Commentary

Soybeans futures closed mostly about 4-5 cents higher in surprisingly active trade. Long grain/short soybean spreads were being unwound, which contributed...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Year-End for the Food Pundits

While foodies are recounting their victories from 2015, including compelling an increasing number of major food vendors to pledge their future allegiance t...

Unsweet Impacts; Not So Simple Future

Some studies suggest that Hershey's decision to no longer use sugar produced from sugar beets may end up causing more harm to the environment as a result...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports indicate some farmers are already abandoning soybeans in the drought-inflicted Brazilian states and have begun planting the fields to corn in hope...

Market Commentary

Corn prices were helped out of the red by a strong rally in wheat and the ability of soybeans to recover from a mid-session sinking spell. Besides being a...

China’s Modernizing Feed Industry and Growing Commodity Demand

The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is projecting growth in meat output during 2016-20 and targeting “above scale” farms for this expansion. This signals a...

Dark Days for Commodity Funds

There are innumerable variations among commodity funds and how they are managed/ traded, but they share one very consistent characteristic.Trading by pools...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Egypt’s GASC has made a few important changes to its wheat purchase terms that impact the acceptable levels of ergot as the country also implemented tighte...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The IoT and Big Data Impact on Agriculture

Economics, as a discipline, has been based on several assumptions over the years, and the evolution of Big Data and the “Internet of Things” (IoT) is rapid...

Technology Dampening; Supply Chains

Companies have been arguing that trade negotiators must catch up to the fact that global supply chains have become critically important. Lightening Metapho...

China In-Country Analysis

China proved to be a welcome addition to Washington State’s export portfolio this past fall. With carryover of the 2014 apple crop running into early Novem...

No More Beet Sugar in Hershey’s Kisses

While Hershey’s has always used both cane sugar and beet sugar, it will shift to using 100 percent of the former because it is non-GM. The issue is that 10...

Market Commentary

Markets of nearly every type were lower in quiet holiday trading. Wheat tried to resist the downside pressure in corn and soybeans and was mostly successfu...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The feed wheat market in the Black Sea is under pressure in the absence of buying interest with the low pro Argentine wheat significantly more competitive...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Food Outpaces Commodities; Top Five; Surveys

Major agricultural commodity prices will be mostly flat in 2016, according to USDA, but the agency predicts that food bought for consumption at home will i...

Oilseed Highlights

Although U.S. exports and unshipped sales of soybeans and soymeal continue to run behind the pace of a year ago, today’s USDA export sales report indicated...

Some Christmas Wishes

While we still have a Christmas wish list, it no longer includes things like ice skates, a Lincoln Log set and a cowboy suit. Is our current wish list a be...

Market Commentary

In a market environment like this, the price direction of least resistance is usually lower. Overnight trade seemed almost at a standstill with grain and s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Cattle on Feed: Heifer Retention and Slaughter Weights

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

Tribalism; Gadflies; Luddites

People should be judged on the quality of their character and not the color of their skin (ethnic/geographic origin), but apparently it is the opposite whe...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybean demand returned to Argentina last week. Six cargoes were traded FOB and CNF at levels of -9 SN FOB and 57 SN CNF, both for May/June shipment. Consi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's domestic milling wheat prices grew slightly. Thus, traders’ raised their bids to $142-172/MT EXW in order to accumulate necessary stocks before t...

Market Commentary

Corn futures contracts closed down three-quarters of a cent in very slow, quiet trade that moved corn prices within a narrow 3 cent range. The U.S. Energy...

Market Commentary

Daily price action has become a technical affair with corn futures prices seemingly headed for a test of support near $3.63. Chicago March wheat has now fa...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The Blumberg Grain Command and Control Center has opened in Egypt and will be used to manage the government’s Shouna Development Project. It is said...

Oilseed Highlights

India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) has once again urged the government of India (GOI) to raise the tariff on refined vegoil imports. It wants an...

Bona Fide Hedging

One of the thorniest issues involved in setting speculative position limits concerns the exemptions that commercial market users are able to receive for po...

Where Does the Fed Go Next?

While Congress was busying piecing together a fiscal policy deal on the budget and taxes, the Federal Reserve moved to raise interest rates for the first t...

GMO Labeling; Trade and Economics

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has reportedly invited both the food industry and anti-GMO advocates to a meeting on resolving the labeling issue. Given their i...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 1.1 MMT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the cumulated total to 11.4 MMT versus 13.6 MMT at the same time last year. The weekl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Nairobi’s Mixed Messages

The ministerial declaration emanating from the WTO’s meeting in Nairobi this past weekend is hailed by some as “historic” and by others as a disappointment...

Cotton Supporters Seek Farm Program Status for Cottonseed

Technically,  it is cotton lint that is no longer eligible for certain crop support programs, and cottonseed could qualify as an oilseed. Thus, the Na...

Market Commentary

Wheat couldn’t find any friends today and was the weakest link in the agricultural markets. Like corn, Chicago wheat futures are mired in a technical tradi...

China In-Country Analysis

China’s domestic soymeal inventories decreased last week to 1.32 MMT, down 150,000 MT or 10.2 percent from the previous week, largely because of two factor...

Weather Starting to Play Bigger Role

The super strong El Nino continues to be in the news on almost a daily basis. It is also starting to receive some press in agricultural markets as its impa...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s trade was a key technical reversal in the soybean market, and that brought more follow-through buying today. Wheat chased the soybean rally, wh...

Meaningless and Meaningful Words

The major farmers and food makers in America lose when any biotechnology product approved through the regulatory process is disparaged. Meaningless Food W...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India imported 1.337 MMT of vegetable oil in November 2015 versus 1.189 MMT during the same month a year ago, which has pulled prices down. While this may...

Brazil Weather Starting to Attract Attention

While it is difficult to assess the impact of weather on Brazil's overall crop production at this point in time, it is safe to say that it will be difficul...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Some Winners, Some Losers

As a result of equivalency agreements, Edward Jaenicke of Penn State University found that U.S. organic food exports have increased 58 percent over the pas...

The Demand Side Blues

The simple fact is that annual production and thus the annual renewability of grain and oilseed supplies allows for a quick production response to high pri...

WASDE and Long-Term Projections

USDA’s December WASDE report (released last week) indicates a slight reduction in broiler and beef production for 2015 and 2016, while it shows pork produc...

Market Commentary

The soybean market staged a late session rally that caught the market by surprise. Its sudden reversal was strong enough to pull corn along with it and eve...

Oilseed Highlights

In its decision to ban the development of biotech eggplants, the Supreme Court of the Philippines also struck down a 2002 government regulation that allowe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

As FOB basis continued dropping last week, a cargo of Argentine soybeans was traded by the end of the week at levels of -2 SN for full May shipment. Today...

Omnibus and Tax Extender Deal Reached

Lawmakers reached a deal early this morning on the omnibus spending bill and the tax extender package. There are a number of provisions in both that signif...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices traded slightly firmer overnight, but they faded to red early in the day session and stayed that way through the close. Some of the we...

Food with Pathogens

People in the conventional food business are smiling as Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. walks back from its pledge to use “local” ingredients at it...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture’s first forecast for the 2016 grain harvest estimated it at 104 MMT. However, market experts are not as optimistic with...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Still Awaiting the Omnibus

The omnibus budget bill has still not been released, although it was expected to be this afternoon. Received reports indicate that a large number of the am...

A Few Random Thoughts

It is mid-December, a time when grain, soy and other commodity markets are anticipated to slow down with the Christmas holiday looming in 10 days. However,...

Sickest; U.S. Dilemma; Perishable Cost

The World Health Organization (WHO) produced its first ever estimate of food-borne illnesses. While there are worse places in the world, the U.S. is a prim...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

With the stronger U.S. dollar, weaker soybeans and corn plus the absence of any supportive news or inputs, today’s stronger wheat market seems hard to rati...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Pakistan reportedly has a large surplus of wheat that will rise considerably after the next harvest. If the government does adjust the export price, which...

Oilseed Highlights

Because of low cotton lint prices, the U.S. cotton industry is asking USDA to make cottonseed eligible for the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price L...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

COP 21 Exemptions; Doha and Nairobi; Surveys

The Paris agreement on greenhouse gas reductions is at once a marvel and a façade. It reveals the extraordinary difficulty of getting a Conference of Parti...

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