NASA has combined with Columbia University to produce a study (Geophysical Research Letters), which claims that fine particulate matter from food productio...
Articles
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is likely getting larger. Barring a wet weather pattern during the harvest period, the last issue is what the market ca...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn prices continued to be down during the first few weeks of the harvest in Bihar, but they have been moving up as demand increased once industries reali...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures traded higher most of today’s session as the soy complex continued to struggle. Better harvest weather in Argentina coupled with mor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bill Proposed to Cap Ethanol under 10 Percent Blendwall
On Tuesday 10 May, House Representatives Bill Flores (R-Texas), Peter Welch (D-Vermont), Jim Costa (D-California), and Robert Goodlatte (R-Virginia) introd...
Risky Reading; Risky Purchase
The publication Consumers Report (CR) has long been depended upon for objective information about products for purchase, but it has become an unreliable so...
Big Production and Big Demand
While the May USDA WASDE numbers projected another season of record or near-record yields and production, there are implications for the margin of error be...
USTR to Challenge China over Chicken
The U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR’s) office announced on 10 May that the U.S. will challenge China over its failure to bring its duties on U.S. chicken...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex prices firmed in overnight trade with the complex getting a big boost from the surging Dalian (DCE) soymeal contract, which closed up...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA is initially forecasting Brazil’s and Argentina’s soybean harvested area in 2017 will increase by 900,000 hectares and 50,000 hectares, respectively...
No Natural at All
The U.S. FDA has collected public comments and now must decide what the term “natural” means on a food label.The U.S. FDA has collected public comments and...
Grain Stocks Mythology
The concept of holding stocks of grain that can be used during times of need has a nice humanitarian ring to it. It only becomes a good deal less appealing...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn situation in Argentina is generating big losses throughout the entire chain. It started with farmers not harvesting and thus not delivering to por...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Snookering Public Stockholding
WTO members committed in the Nairobi Ministerial declaration to create a rule regarding a government’s right to use stockholding for food security purposes...
Market Commentary
Markets were considerably more relaxed today amid consolidating trade that saw both sides of yesterday’s closes before finishing mostly lower. However, tod...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices increased slightly as did corn prices at the UBS ports due to export reasons. The milling rye market there remained stable a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
U.S. corn exports to North Africa/Africa in the first quarter of 2016 are down 75 percent versus 2015, mainly due to reduced business with Algeria, Morocco...
The May 2016 WASDE
This is always one of the most interesting of USDA’s monthly supply/demand reports as it is the first to provide the agency’s views of the next crop year a...
Oilseed Highlights
Monsanto today lowered its forecast for U.S. plantings of its Roundup Ready 2Xtend soybean this year from 3 million acres to 2 million acres. U.S. processo...
F Bombs; Stiffing; Currency Manipulation; Market Forces
Beijing wants the U.S. to concede to China the status of being a “market economy” under the rules of the WTO, but it has a funny way of trying to sway Wash...
Salacious Hamburger Study Could Follow Hot Dog Study in Media
Last October, the company Clear Labs of Menlo Park, California released the findings of its investigation into the molecular makeup of hot dogs. Industry s...
Market Commentary
The May WASDE with its first peak at supply/demand for the next crop year has a history of generating futures market volatility immediately following its r...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. DDGS export shipments to China in March fell to their lowest level since December 2014. However, the steady drop since last July suggests that the dra...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Considering the Black Sea's high level of old crop stocks held by farmers and the arriving big crops, the total feed wheat supply at the start of the 2016/...
Geography is Destiny
It has been periodically charged that USDA has a bias in favor of farmers over consumers, and the agency’s local effort is evidence of the difficulty...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Last week’s unexpectedly big hard red winter wheat yield forecast from the wheat tours kept pressure on wheat again today. The big rally in the U.S. dollar...
EU Not Likely to Extend Biofuel Mandate After 2020
Leading the opposition was the UK, which the Department of Transport there indicates is preparing to offer legislative reforms to its own Renewable Fuel Tr...
USDA Report Preview
These reports will set the tone for the markets until and unless weather changes the dynamics of the yield estimates, but USDA's corn and soybean productio...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets were quiet and mixed in light volume. That all changed when the soy complex again started a significant rally in the first hour of today’...
Canadian Grain Stocks and U.S. Winter Wheat Production
While today’s Stats Canada stock numbers did not contain any signficant surprises, two crops showed an interesting change from last year. Meanwhile, this w...
TTIP Impasse; One Percenter Food; Border Trouble
Officials in the previous Commission at least attempted a small but overt effort to inform the European public and open minds to biotech; the current one i...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's high domestic feed ingredient prices have spurred livestock farmer groups to ask that GOI allow imports that may have been produced using grain and...
CRP Enrollment Announced
This is the 30th anniversary of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), which was created in the 1985 Farm Bill, and enrollment was the most selective in i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bulls and Bears
The history of commodity and financial markets during the past 45 years suggests that complacency just might be the speculator/investor’s worst enemy, and...
Oilseed Highlights
China’s announcement that it was conducting an ant-dumping investigation of U.S. DDGS exports has impacted local importers' decisions, but other markets ar...
Small America; Tele-Protectionism; Chemical Organic
Big non-food companies suggesting the dismantling of the food system because it is also big is certainly a big idea, but it cannot be characterized as prag...
Market Commentary
It was sort of a crazy day for grain and soy markets. The overnight session saw higher prices across the board, and that trend accelerated early in the day...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Review: Global Wheat Markets and their Outlooks
Wheat Uncompeted Demand will grow, but wheat has been a loser in the competition against other commodities for profit and thus growing area. U.S. Wheat Sec...
House Bill Targets FDA Veterinary Feed Directive
Last June, the U.S. FDA issued the final rule implementing the agency’s Veterinary Feed Directive (VFD) “to ensure the judicious use of medically important...
Market Commentary
The soy complex was once again supported by renewed strength of soymeal futures. It appeared that commercial end users were buying meal futures as protecti...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Processors' and traders' bid prices for soybeans on the Ukrainian domestic market rose to $374-394/MT EXW and $378-398/MT CPT, while CPT-port prices grew t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Several exporters in Argentina expect the export program to end soon because of the drop in soybean production. Offers started to decrease this week, but t...
Too Big; Uncertainty; Sweet Revenues
A Chicago Booth survey of leading economists found that expertise caused both an increase and a decrease in certainty about the actual value of breaking up...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The World Wheat Outlook
From 2013/14 through 2015/16, the world produced three record wheat crops in a row. 2016/17 production is unlikely to reach the level of 2015/16’s record 7...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Budget Process Reform and The Farm Bill
The U.S. Senate Budget Committee recently held four hearings regarding reform of the congressional budget process. There is general consensus that it has b...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Morocco has decided to leave the soft wheat import tariff at 30 percent until the end of 2016. This resulted from the expected drop in the local wheat crop...
Organic; Titanic TTIP Sinking
The truth is that the extreme low levels of quantification available via organic chemistry means that very little in the food system will test at pure or a...
Market Commentary
After reaching new rally highs overnight, the soybean and soymeal markets faltered soon after the day session opened. Meanwhile, good reports from the firs...
Oilseed Highlights
Mauricio Macri promised Argentina’s agricultural exports would increase sharply if he was elected president and eliminated export taxes. Data released by t...
Currencies; Politics; Principles; Economy
The U.S. Treasury Department’s annual report comes closer than any prior assessment in calling out key trading partners for currency manipulation. Name Cal...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Japan’s Economy and the TPP
While U.S. agriculture groups push for passage of the TPP, the longer-term stakes for restoring the Japanese economy, a major market for U.S. agricultural...
U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop
USDA will release its first estimate of U.S. winter wheat production on 10 May, but this week’s Kansas crop quality tour will provide a reasonable idea of...
China In-Country Analysis
The April 2016 statistics for the Dalian Exchange show the impact of China’s move away from direct corn subsidies on a set floor price. The interesting thi...
Market Commentary
The soy complex, particularly soybean and soymeal futures, is where all the action continues to be. Soybean futures were lower overnight and traded down as...
Market Commentary
Markets were active on this last trading day of the month, but volume was much closer to normal than some of the big days in recent weeks. Soybean, wheat a...
Yogurt Battle Epitomizes Trends in Food Industry
The recent moves by two of the top three players in the yogurt market, Chobani and Dannon, underscore the marketing battle to gain consumer confidence rega...
World Turns; Food Fix
The food sector overflows with idealism, and while one person, one vote makes sense in democratic politics, an equal vote by all shareholders in an economi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The prevalence of drought news has prompted GOI to discuss agricultural policies regarding ways to save water and promote crops that can thrive under arid...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There has been a great deal of chatter about the possible impact that the frenzied commodity speculation in China may have had on U.S. futures markets.It w...
Oilseed Highlights
Mercedes Benz has proposed to the Indian government that it shift its cars and other vehicles solely to biodiesel as a way to comply with a Supreme Court r...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
One-Legged Stool; Sanctions Circumvention
The post-Doha agenda for the WTO is unclear, but EU Trade Minister Cecelia Malmström laid out Europe’s vision for where the organization should focus. One...
GAO to Investigate Beef Market
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) wrote to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) last week regarding a study of last year's...
Market Commentary
Price action in overnight trading of CME grain and soy contracts was mixed with minor changes. USDA’s weekly export sales report was the main fundamentally...
The Chinese Conundrum
The impact that the state of the Chinese economy may have on its demand for physical commodities is obviously of key importance to how those products are v...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Ukrainian corn market showed significant changes as prices grew on all terms of trade due to high demand from exporters. That same demand drove the cou...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather conditions have improved in Argentina since last week, but the soybean harvest is still far behind. Approximately 4 MMT were lost because of the fl...
Market Commentary
The day session produced a bias toward lower prices, although nothing remotely close to a market collapse. Soybean futures prices were off about 17 cents a...
Slaying the Goose; FDA out to Lunch
Every food has been genetically modified, and the use of the term “natural” is one of the most litigious in food marketing. Even labeling food as non-GMO i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The market was nervous about its direction today because of the relatively weak closes yesterday when soybeans went from up 30+ cents to up 12-15 cents. So...
NOSB Snob; TTIP Lobby
The National Organic Standards Board (NOSB) is predicted to have a contentious meeting when it gathers this week for its semi-annual subjective opining of...
Farm Credit Situation
Both Farmer Mac and commercial banks reported a 7 percent increase in agriculture-related loans last year versus 2014. With an outlook for depressed commod...
Oilseed Highlights
A consortium that includes Brazil’s Universidade Federal de Viçosa, DuPont Pioneer and 2Blades (a non-profit organization) indicates it has developed a soy...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt reports that it has purchased approximately 57,000 MT of local wheat in the first 10 days of buying against a target of 4 MMT by 31 July 2016. Howeve...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Funds Are Back
Markets crashed last Friday when the fund buying dried up, so the sharply higher trade this morning caught the market by surprise. What seems to be clear i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Final Stages of Presidential Primaries: The Road Ahead
Tomorrow could be a big step toward clearing the picture on the Republican side, or it may leave the waters muddied. Either way, the states remaining with...
Market Commentary
Markets were quietly lower overnight, but that pattern quickly changed with this morning’s opening. Accelerated buying took soybeans and corn to 30-cent pl...
China In-Country Analysis
After a tepid first quarter, demand from China's feed industry picked up considerably last week and decreased the nation’s estimated soymeal inventor...
Transatlantic Tete-a-Tete
Fearing that American agriculture’s concerns may get overlooked in a final push to complete the TTIP this year, 26 U.S. senators sent a letter to U.S...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The old crop feed wheat and corn market in the Black Sea is much firmer because of slow farmer selling and short covering demand. This has impacted the inv...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Under normal circumstances, India's chickpea prices tend to move lower as arrivals peak. Contrary to that, though, NCDEX spot prices in New Delhi are up 18...
Christmas in April
Regardless of what has caused or created this recent market rally, it has brought an enormous Christmas present to farmers and agricultural bankers in the...
Inconsistencies; Another View; Look Out Corn; Largess
U.S. and EU political leaders and trade negotiators begin critical Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) meetings this weekend, and the cha...
New Dairy Feed to Milk Margin Bill Introduced
One of the issues carried over from the 2012 Farm Bill to the 2014 version was the new Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMP), which provides margin insuran...
Market Commentary
The soy complex crumbled sharply lower overnight as funds turned from big buyers to moderate sellers. Soybeans then opened this morning with moderate losse...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Today’s planting intentions report by Statistics Canada indicated Canadian farmers intend to plant more corn and pulses but less oilseeds this year than la...
Market Commentary
Corn couldn’t participate in the soybean rally even when the soy complex was super strong overnight.. Markets opened lower and traded with sharp early loss...
Price Risk and World Wheat Trade: Part II
Can a commercially useful world wheat contract be created? It would have to be a contract that attracted widespread commercial participation from buyers an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Another Report on Meat and Sustainability
After the U.S. Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC) initially dropped meat from its dietary recommendations, the World Resources Institute (WRI) re...
TTIP Day of Reckoning
German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel attempted to put the U.S. in the defensive position on Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotia...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The main signal from the overnight trade was the continued heavy trading volume. The day session also opened with grain prices edging higher and mixed but...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wheat and corn prices in the Russian market decreased insignificantly last week, while barley and milling rye prices remained stable. However, all prices g...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Floods have ruined an important part of Argentina’s seeded soybean area, and farmers are now selling their stocks at $250/MT compared with $217/MT FAS at R...
Pigs Fly; TPP Brick Wall
The U.S. House Appropriations Committee approved a bill funding agriculture for FY 2017, and the effort included a couple of notable fights.The U.S. House...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey’s wheat production should reach 19.5 MMT in 2015/16, according to the latest USDA-FAS report on that country. However, that volume could drop to 17...
Oilseed Highlights
India has suffered from droughts during the past two years, reducing its production of lentils, peas and other pulse crops that are diet staples for many t...
Elliott; Steel Cotton; Imprecise Futures; Cuban Smoke
Efforts by the new government in Argentina to assume the inspection of soybeans and to deter the ability of technology providers in obtaining royalties for...
Market Bulls Grow Their Horns
Supply/demand analyses require a considerable amount of subjectivity and guesswork, while prices and price changes are facts. All of this leads us to consi...
Ag Appropriations Bill Before House Appropriations Committee
The House Appropriations Committee was marking up the FY 2017 Agricultural Appropriations Bill this afternoon. It totals $21.3 billion in discretionary fun...
Market Commentary
Soy complex futures prices jumped very sharply higher in aggressive trading, and wheat futures prices also advanced smartly. Corn futures prices were highe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Wheat had an interesting trading day today. Chicago led the rally because that’s where the funds are short about 500 million bushels of futures. Short cove...
Shorts; Boiling Red; Report Value
Sweden is seeking a European Union ban on the importation of live Maine lobster. It charges that the Homarus americanus is an invasive species that gets lo...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Brazil’s lower house voted last night to impeach President Dilma Rousseff, and the Senate now has 10 sessions to decide if it wishes to move forward with t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Egyptian GASC bought 120,000 MT of Romanian wheat and 55,000 MT of Ukrainian last week at an average price of $192.12 CNF. The prices offered are at le...
2018 Farm Bill Debate Underway
The current farm bill took two years of debate and negotiations to finish, and now stakeholders are already getting involved two years later in farm policy...
China In-Country Analysis
For the second consecutive week, the average domestic corn price fell RMB 10/MT ($1.50/MT) last week to RMB 1780/MT ($274.20/MT). Since the beginning of Ap...
Attitude Change?
This week provided a very good demonstration of how quickly attitudes and prices can change. The soybean rally continued to gain strength and set new highs...
GMO Go; Better MTB Process
Low commodity prices may be leading farmers to plant seeds less expensive than GM varieties, but technology is winning in other ways. Anti-GMO Takes Hits L...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly weaker overnight following the weak closes on Thursday. Corn and soybean markets then shifted again this morning as funds b...
Brazil’s President Rousseff Facing Impeachment
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff''s story is fascinating. It is an epic saga of sorts, much in the mold of South America’s political turmoil from the mid...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While government of India (GOI) data might indicate adequate plant protein availability for the livestock sector, actual domestic production suggests other...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Animal Welfare for Organic Production
Although the organic industry generally has expressed support for USDA’s move in tightening the animal handling standards, there have been some concerns fr...
Price Risk and World Wheat Trade: Part One
At one time, Chicago wheat futures (now the CME wheat contracts) provided a price discovery function for most world buyers and sellers. However, the CME SR...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentine Minister of Agriculture Ricardo Buryaile has signed a resolution aimed at stopping companies from collecting royalties on their patented biotech...
China’s Compliance and Market Signals; Urban Agriculture
While China has a full bag of tricks to limit its exposure to imports when it wants to, Beijing is quicker to come into compliance with adverse WTO decisio...
Market Commentary
After the giddy rally of the last four sessions, grain and soy futures markets finally paused to catch their breath today. It did not happen early in the o...
Chemicals; China Barriers; Farm Bill; Too Late
The U.S. House Agriculture Committee plans hearings on the downturn in the farm economy, and discussions have already begun on the new farm bill to be writ...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Domestic prices on the Ukrainian grain market fluctuated insignificantly last week. Some traders continued raising bid prices for wheat without changing th...
Market Commentary
The Great Grain and Soy Rally of 2016 continued in full force again in overnight trading and during the day session. Overnight trading volume was heavy, es...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn situation in Argentina is becoming more complicated because of the heavy rains over agricultural areas and numerous vessels arriving at the ports...
Corn Dumping; TPP; Shackled; Compromise
The U.S. dollar is at an eight-month low against a basket of currencies, and speculation is increasing about interventions by other governments to countera...
Oilseed Highlights
This year Monsanto expects up to 35 million acres of Intacta soybeans to be planted in Brazil and the area to increase to 75 million acres by 2019. That’s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The soybean market is in the grips of a strong technical rally that has pushed futures prices to their highest levels in more than six months. Soybean futu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Italy is looking at three zone developments related to agricultural logistics in Egypt with one project for wheat and grain said to be likely in the Red Se...
Biodiesel: RFS, Tax Credit and Imports
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released the first month’s data on biodiesel, and it is interesting to look at three key factors in th...
The April WASDE
USDA released its April 2016 WASDE today. If anything, the report carried a slightly bearish tone. Despite this, markets traded strongly higher today, both...
Subsidies for Niche Marketing
USDA is boasting that at 12 percent per year, organic farming is “one of the fasting-growing segments of American agriculture." It also claims to hav...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures put in a new high overnight, and that strength followed through today. Funds are also long soybean and soymeal futures, and this chart patt...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Of Funds and Canada
Managed money continues to press the short side of corn and wheat futures while buying soybean and soyoil futures. In the meantime, Canada’s acreage is sta...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The combination of the lower U.S. corn price and a firmer EUR versus the USD raised the theoretical import levy to about €5/MT. The actual levy is currentl...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s estimated soymeal inventories fell sharply last week for the first time since the end of February. They have totaled more than 1 MMT since the week...
Equities Bullish, Commodities Bearish
All four living (current and past) Federal Reserve chairs discussed investors’ perception of the economy last week and agreed that the U.S. economy is soun...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Rail Shipments
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has added data on rail movements of ethanol and biodiesel to its monthly Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) re...
Eating Disorders
If a centrally-controlled government like China’s cannot persuade consumers as to the safety of biotechnology, it stands no chance in the tabloid-dri...
Ag Review: Immigration Issues around the World
The Immigration Debate and Agriculture Fundamental changes will impact the migration debate, including in agriculture. Immigration Challenges in Russia and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Crude oil was soaring today with gains of more than $2.00 a barrel, and that set the tone for everything else. However, corn couldn’t follow wheat or soybe...
The “New” Soybean Outlook
WPI's acreage estimate is based on the belief that the very wet conditions across the Delta will result in acres shifting back to soybeans from corn. The k...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
After two failed monsoons and higher food demand for its population of 1.26 billion, India is gradually becoming a net importer as the country's water cris...
Dubious Organic Animal Standard; Brussels Ignores Deadlines
The EU is once again delaying the approval of feed ingredient imports derived from biotech crops despite their science-based proof of safety. Dubious Organ...
Dealing With the Next Global Food Crisis
In January 2016, the Council on Foreign Relations held a workshop to look at volatility in food prices and its consequences with an emphasis on food crises...
USDA Meat/Livestock Trade Update; China’s Beef Facilities; Cage-Free Eggs
It was announced today that China bought a feed lot and three meatpacking plants in Argentina for $75 million, a move that is expected to help the Argentin...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grains and the soy complex found both sides of Wednesday’s closes in below average volume. However, corn prices never fell far from the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
While a Chinese ag ministry official indicated today that the government plan is to boost domestic soybean production for food purposes rather than reduce...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
In Brazil, the soybean market keeps focused on the spot. This week there were several trades at levels of +55 SK for Santos and +54 SK for Rio Grande. The...
Oilseed Highlights
With China's announcement last week regarding a change in its income support policy for farmers, local analysts predict a notable shift in their planting d...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The corn market edged higher, although there was not much in the way of fresh input. Corn spreads tightened somewhat as corn shorts began to roll their pos...
U.S. Trade Policy; China GMO Policy
The U.S. trade deficit is growing worse as the U.S. dollar stays strong and the economy stands out from many others. This trend will eventually feed back i...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wheat, corn and barley prices at the Russian market continued to drop (in RUB expression) during the week in review, while rye prices remained unchanged. H...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Stress-tolerant maize being developed for use in Africa, which has as many as 70 strains, is believed to be capable of combating a number of serious growin...
Cheaper Oil's Impact on U.S. Exports
This is a new era in energy and specifically crude oil, which is having an effect on total U.S. exports as well as those from the ag sector.USDA today rele...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Root of Problems; Worth Its Salt
The Obama administration is under intense pressure over the political prospects for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Transatlantic and Trade Investm...
U.S. Wheat Outlook
The 2016/17 U.S. wheat crop will clearly be small, but it appears unlikely that this will provide fundamental support for a bull wheat market. The anticipa...
Market Commentary
The feature of the day session was the sharp drop of soyoil prices, largely the result of fund selling. Corn closed a couple of cents higher, helped by som...
Market Commentary
Everything turned lower in the first hour-and-a-half of today’s trade. Soybeans actually led the break when the weekly export inspections report showed jus...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Bulgaria has been officially added to the list of potential suppliers in the GASC tenders, which is good news for the country’s milling wheat farmers. Howe...
Beef Herd and Demand Both Make a Comeback
While the March WASDE report projected U.S. beef consumption will increase for the first time since 2006, the U.S. cattle herd is also expanding after reac...
Transatlantic Strategies; Winners and Losers
The European Union is considering a plan whereby dairy cooperatives voluntarily reduce production in the face of slumping prices. Rebalancing supply and de...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s State Council has approved the National Resource Defense Council’s (NRDC’s) proposed 2016 soybean target price of RMB 4,800/MT ($732.50/MT), which...
The “New” Corn Outlook
Instead of steady or a slight reduction in corn acres, the U.S. farmers surveyed by USDA in early March said they intended to boost plantings by 5.6 millio...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's sugar price has improved considerably in the past three months, rising 15.9 percent from a low spot price of $466.20/MT in Kolhapur (Maharashtra) o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
While the amount of frost-freeze damage to certain crops is unknown at this time and drought continues to be an issue in some key regions, the planting int...
Market Commentary
Today’s trade was much more reserved, but volume was again well above average. Funds continued to slowly add to their long soybean position, now reportedly...
U.S. Senate Election Outlook
Of the 34 seats up for reelection this year, 24 are held by the Republicans and only 10 by the Democrats. That certainly gives the latter more chances for...
WOTUS; Trade Angst; Survey Says
Aggies were greatly dismayed when the U.S. Supreme Court passed on hearing their challenge of U.S. EPA’s regulatory approach to cleaning up the Chesapeake...
Market Commentary
The way the futures market reacted to today USDA's reports, it seems that it was not only starved for fresh fundamental news, but it was also eager to be s...
China as Potential Top Pork Importer; U.S. Meat Production
China now consumes about half of the world’s pork and has a growing demand into the future that can’t be sustained by small farms that also have an outsize...
Trade’s Benefits; Twisted Thinking
The recommendation of a regulatory reform council in Japan in relation to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is an example of how newly-created comp...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Intentions
The long-awaited March planting intention estimates and 1 March quarterly stocks estimates from USDA were released at noon (EDT), which should provide mark...
Oilseed Highlights
A WTO dispute settlement panel ruled yesterday on the complaint filed by Argentina in December 2013 regarding the EU antidumping tariffs implemented agains...
Market Commentary
Speculative soybean longs do not appear very worried about tomorrow’s stocks and acreage numbers. However, the history of periodic 1 March corn stock surpr...
Farm and Trade Policy Tipping Points
Current farm policy is a vestige of a bygone era when caloric deficits were tangible and the tools of risk management and market information were imprecise...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The last week was very surprising for corn in Argentina as well as Brazil and also an important factor in the big heat up in premiums. Despite the size of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian milling wheat prices quoted by traders grew as did those at the UBS ports. Traders’ feed wheat bid prices also increased along with export prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S.-Argentina Trade and Investment Framework
The new U.S.-Argentina cooperative agreement is wide-ranging and covers areas such as technical assistance in domestic economic reform, global development...
Oilseed Highlights
The Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC), the government of India’s regulator responsible for issuing clearances for field trials of GM crops and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
According to the latest USDA country brief, Saudi Arabia will import just over 17 MMT of grain in 2015/16: 8.5 MMT of barley, 3.5 MMT of corn, 3.3 MMT of w...
Therapeutic Nonuse; China Corn
Glyphosate is now under intensified scrutiny in the U.S. as the inspector general for the U.S. EPA announces an investigation into how well the agency has...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Transition Reports
The nature of agricultural markets is to always look ahead, and USDA's 1 March reports, especially the planting intentions, that will be released this Thur...
Market Commentary
The rally of grain and soy futures prices marches on in a manner not seen since last summer. Again, the charge has been led by soyoil with the May contract...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
2016 Fuel Consumption Track
Gasoline futures prices are now higher than ethanol futures prices for the first time in more than six months, a change being driven by a number of factors...
Market Commentary
This was a more interesting day in the markets. Corn and soybean futures were slightly lower overnight with wheat slightly higher. Wheat then found more ag...
China In-Country Analysis
The estimated average utilization rate of China's soybean processing industry decreased sharply last week as a majority of those facilities ceased producti...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Egypt's GASC purchased 60,000 MT of French wheat last week at $189.20 CNF after receiving seven offers in total. The fact that the GASC preferred to buy ju...
Tough Time to Make a Profit
There’s no question that big profits were made during the boom times and balance sheets looked wonderful. The problem is that money is now going out the do...
Perpetuating Inequities; Wrong Tree
American public attitude surveys show a continuing slide in public support for free trade, and that decline is encouraging politicians to use trade as a ne...
Oilseed Highlights
Some elevators are warning farmers that they will not accept soybeans produced from Monsanto’s Roundup Ready 2Xtend strain unless it gains approval from th...
China’s New Farm Policies – Maybe
China has been using its version of crop price supports to achieve income support and experienced a similar progression of results as occurred in the U.S...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grains and the soy complex were mixed and directionless as markets began to wind down ahead of the long holiday weekend. Things perked u...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Trade Policy; Change; Labeling Ruse
The Japanese refuse to liberalize rice imports, the Americans won’t budge on sugar subsidies and export credits, and Europe will never accept GMOs or hormo...
Pork Outlook
USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released tomorrow, and the market expects the data will be in accordance with the department's long-term base...
Cuban Paradise; Choco Diet; Deniers; Jobs
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba was forced to grow crops without inputs like chemicals or machinery – making it an organic mecca. To the Big Ag commu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There was an FOB cargo of soybeans traded in Santos this week at +55 or 56 SK for April, while paper was bid at +50 SK. This seems to indicate port premium...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wheat and barley prices at the Russian market continued to decrease (in RUB expression). Rye and corn prices grew, however, with the latter showing a signi...
Market Commentary
This week’s Turnaround Tuesday did not occur until today, Wednesday, but turning around is what grain and soy futures prices did amid moderate trading volu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TTIP Frustration; Mercosur; Labels; Fraud
In a signal that frustration is growing on the American side over Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, U.S. Ambassador to th...
The Fading Cuban Embargo
The purpose of the Cuban embargo was to enable the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations to showcase their stance against evil communism, while the advert...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volumes were not impressive, and this pattern continued during the day session. Noncommercial support sent soybean futures prices up 12 c...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt reports that current wheat supplies are sufficient until July 2016 and that it is planning to purchase 4-4.5 MMT of local stocks during the April-Jul...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Palm oil futures prices rose today to a two-year high as a result of increased exports and expectations that production will decline because of reduced rai...
President Visits Cuba; Ag Secretary Signs Technical MOU
Since trade in agriculture and medicine was authorized in 2000, U.S. ag exports to Cuba grew to a high point of $685 million in 2008 before dropping steadi...
Cattle on Feed Report
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Food Symptom – Economic Cause
For Cuba as with all other nations, adverse economic policy is the disease; poverty and hunger are the resulting symptoms.U.S. aggies have pitched their ho...
Wheat Could Get More Interesting
While the quick cold snap that occurred this weekend over the U.S. hard red winter wheat region had been forecast, the problem was that actual temperatures...
Market Commentary
Corn had a relatively quiet trading day, but the market was firm the entire session. The strong wheat market in the early part helped corn as did the stron...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU allocated 85,000 MT of “zero duty” import licenses for Ukrainian wheat, leaving a balance of only 140,000 MT under that quota for the rest of the ca...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. ethanol exports to China soared to 111,426,533 liters in January (+178 percent) at an average price of $.38 per liter ($482.69/MT). As there are only...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Soybeans Keep Ticking
A record soybean crop in Brazil and another or near-record one in Argentina, coupled with U.S. soybean ending supplies projected to double from last year,...
House Budget Committee Approves Budget Resolution
Rep.Marlin Stutzman (R-Indiana) and Rep. Dave Brat (R-Virginia) joined all Democrats on the committee in rejecting the budget plan, which may be indicative...
Market Commentary
The soybean market tried to sustain a rally. The new crop November contract even scored a four-month high, while May again bumped up against resistance at...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's parliamentary committee on ethanol blending is not happy about the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP) and its current status. It wants a plan within th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Macroeconomics; Sugar Sin Tax; Dairy Pushers
Dairy producers are pushing back against a World Health Organization (WHO) proposal that would discourage what it terms “inappropriate” promotion of manufa...
The GMO Labeling Debate
GMO labeling is an emotionally thorny issue that is argued on the basis of food safety, but it has moved well beyond the science that should be the determi...
FAPRI Beef and Pork Projections Diverge from USDA’s
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri has issued its 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of the huge drop in India’s exports of non-biotech soymeal, animal feeders in Europe seeking imports of that variety have had to find alternative o...
Market Commentary
Whether or not the luck of the Irish was involved on this St. Patrick’s Day, the lowered economic forecast from the Fed yesterday sent the U.S. dollar into...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grain and soy futures found prices generally lower amid what can best be described as a lack of interest. That interest did not accele...
Rhetorical Context; GMO Label Endgame
A national rule on GMO labeling is inevitable. Today’s loss in the Senate by a compromise backed by aggies but opposed by most Democrats means one of...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There were many soybean trades in Argentina last week. Cargoes were sold at levels of 10 SN for April and May shipment, but most interesting were the three...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Grain prices continued to drop overall (with the exception of milling wheat) at both the Russian and Ukrainian grain markets due to the strengthening local...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Turkish government has increased the local value-added tax (VAT) on imported DDGS and corn gluten feed in order to protect domestic soybean/sunseed cru...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Global Trade Slowing Down
Global trade is down across the board, but it is not a harbinger of doom and gloom nor an indication that an inevitable recession will befall the world eco...
A Few Odds and Ends
There have been various topics of interest and potential importance for commodity markets in the news during recent days with a few that particularly warra...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA has reduced its forecast for U.S. soymeal usage in 2015/16 with a higher volume of canola meal imports from Canada cited as one of the reasons. Certai...
Market Commentary
The daily trading ranges were just 3 cents for corn and 6-7 cents for both wheat and soybeans. In closing mostly a bit lower, grains and soybeans joined wi...
Label Compromise; TPP Polling; Miscellany
A recent survey by Pat Cadell (23 February – 3 March 2016) of 1,950 Americans explained much about the politics of trade and the Trans-Pacific Partne...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU allocated 991,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, a decline from 1.6 MMT during the same week a year ago that was largely due to the Russian...
Another Weather Outlook
Will this strong El Nino winter, which left super unusual weather patterns in its wake, affect the North American growing season?It is soon to be all about...
China In-Country Analysis
The lack of a clear direction from China’s central government regarding the unwinding of domestic corn reserves and the huge buildup of cornstarch inventor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ethanol Exports and Imports
While the 2015 U.S. ethanol exports total of 844 million gallons was 2 million gallons below the 846 million gallons in 2014, this was still only the third...
Market Commentary
Nearly all of the action today was in the corn pit, and there was a good volume of trade. Meanwhile, wheat finished the day with decent gains in Minneapoli...
Attract Young Farmers, or Retain Middle-Aged Farmers?
Given the demographic history of farming in the post-World War II era, the actual issue may not be the number of new young farmers coming into the business...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Heading into the spring planting season, weather is starting to become at least interesting across the Northern Hemisphere. The U.S. winter wheat crop is g...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As poultry meat demand continues to rise in India and with “safe food” a requirement of both the government and domestic customers, there could be opportun...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to higher overnight, while wheat was slightly easier. That pattern held true today. Trading volume was pretty average...
Oilseed Highlights
While farmers may have a positive view of the Indian government’s action on Tuesday that reduced the royalty Monsanto can charge for planting its patented...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s WASDE may not have given markets anything new, but today featured a notable amount of outside news for traders to ponder. Meanwhile, the U.S. d...
Miscellany
Following this week’s bilateral discussions, EU Trade Minister Cecelia Malmström says that the U.S. must acquiesce to even stronger protections of geograph...
Brazilian Real and the Global Broiler Market
There are three factors favoring Brazil's exports on the global broiler market, which are forecast to reach a record-high volume in 2016, and two are relat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Still More on Position Limits
Dodd-Frank required that the CFTC set speculative position limits for futures contracts based on physical commodities “where appropriate” in order to deter...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Argentina Will Take Years to Recover
It is easy to see the damage the policies of the Kirchner government have inflicted on the Argentine agricultural sector. The heretofore large export taxes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic feed corn prices declined as a result of the stronger UAH, larger offer and lower export offer prices. Meanwhile, prices at the Ukrainia...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures traded in a relatively narrow 8 cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before ending the session quietly with a small gain. As with co...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Paraguay is still looking for soybean demand with offers at 38/40 SK for April-May and 42 SN for June-July shipments. Meanwhile, the market in Brazil has b...
TPP Over-Enthusiasm; Trudeau and Dairy; Inequality
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is pushing the Diet to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement during its current session in an effort to b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Review: Opportunities in the Philippines
Sorting Through the Hazards With over 100 million people and an investment grade rating, the Philippines is an important player in the global agricultural...
Chinese Chicken Imports
Following its audit in May 2015 to determine whether China maintains standards that conform with three key U.S. poultry inspection laws, FSIS has decided t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
According to the latest reports from Morocco, the 2016 wheat harvest could be 54 percent smaller than last year with possibly the lowest levels in four yea...
Too Short for Comfort
Under the seemingly endless barrage of bearish inputs and analysis, grain and soy prices have basically been headed downhill since last July. In this marke...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy futures prices trade lower following Monday’s technically disappointing trade. That weakness carried into the early...
Mandatory QR; PC Ag; Ethanol Rent
The politicization of agriculture in Europe continues with a report by Reuters that the EU will not be extending the approved use of glyphosate through 203...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight, and that buying followed through to today’s trade. There wasn’t any specifically bullish news, but there was a great deal of...
March USDA WASDE
It's USDA report time again, and the trade will be closely watching the corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil and Argentina in addition to U.S...
Senate Budget Committee Halts Budget Work on FY 2017 Resolution
U.S. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Michael Enzi (R-Wyoming) today announced that the committee will suspend any potential action on the FY 2017 federal...
Dereliction of Labeling Duty
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has chosen sides in the biotech labeling debate, and it is with the mandatory approach of his political compatriots in the Senat...
China In-Country Analysis
For the second consecutive week, China's average domestic corn price dropped because of downward market pressure. The weekly wholesale price will likely fa...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The new crop (August/September) Bulgarian feed wheat traded at around €146-€147 ($160-$161) FOB last week, but the offers have climbed to €149 today. The m...
Senate Budget Committee Halts Budget Work on FY 2017 Resolution
U.S. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Michael Enzi (R-Wyoming) today announced that the committee will suspend any potential action on the FY 2017 federal...
RINs and Taxes Pushing Ethanol Use in U.S. and Brazil
The bear market for crude oil is having its impact on biofuels around the globe. In the U.S., ethanol prices are higher than gasoline, putting a limit on d...
Buy High; Spinning out of Control
The recent announcement that Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI) just closed on a purchase of 22,100 acres in central Illinois in a deal valued at $197 million ($...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s 2016/17 union budget was released and has been hailed as rural-centric with an emphasis on agricultural growth and sustainability. When the Modi go...
Continuing Pressure on the Short Side of Wheat
One of the important misconceptions regarding the wheat market today is that prices are low because world demand has slowed. This is simply not true by any...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Yesterday it was the wheat market putting on a sharp rally as funds moved to cover some of their vast short position. Today it was the soybean market’s tur...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tales from Export Sales
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
TPP Supports; GM Labeling; Ag-Less CFTC
U.S. commodity groups are beginning to realize that regional trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that only deal with market access an...
Final COOL Rule; Chicken Supply; Eggs
One apparent impact from the repeal of COOL for beef and pork could be seen by reviewing the origin of feeder pig receipts. Among the 86,698 receipts, abou...
Oilseed Highlights
The Chinese government’s efforts to restrict canola imports from Australia and Canada may be of benefit to the EU if Ukrainian rapeseed exports decrease as...
Market Commentary
Wheat gained a couple of cents in overnight trading, while corn and soybeans were up by fractions. However, the tone was set for the day session, which did...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine soybean market was active this week with trades for April-July at levels of 6 SN for April and May, 10 SN for June and 14 for July FOB. At th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Grain prices at the Russian market fluctuated insignificantly (in RUB expression) during the week in review. Meanwhile, the ag minister released a statemen...
Market Commentary
While grain and soy futures markets could not mount a successful rally yesterday as most outside markets did, prices for grains and the soy complex (except...
Less Bearish Thoughts; Cuba and Trumped
It is easy to become glum in this bearish market, but there is a sort of tarnished silver lining. Make Agriculture Great Again It is easy to become glum in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bright Spots: TPP; GMO Pre-Emption; COOL
Everyone agrees that the U.S. Congress could not pass the Tran-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement if it was presented for a vote today, but there is optim...
U.S. Agriculture Outlook: Part Two
When trying to determine future supply and demand, the usual question marks involve producer planting decisions as well as weather conditions during spring...
Heritage Foundation Budget Backs Off Ag Programs
The Heritage plan would cut federal spending by $10.5 trillion over 10 years and lead to a balanced budget by 2023. Given the source, surprisingly little o...
Heritage Foundation Budget Backs Off Ag Programs
The Heritage plan would cut federal spending by $10.5 trillion over 10 years and lead to a balanced budget by 2023. Given the source, surprisingly little o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Due to the current drought situation, South Africa will be relaxing some of its GM grain rules in order to allow maize imports from the U.S. and Mexico. Wh...
Market Commentary
With most outside markets trading higher today, grain and soy markets seemed poised for another “Turnaround Tuesday” rally effort. The best the corn market...
Oilseed Highlights
The Chinese government is tightening its phytosanitary inspections of rapeseed/canola from Canada and Australia, supposedly out of initial concern that&nbs...
Planting Intentions or Bankers’ Intentions?
It appears that there are bankers now offering farmers advice on what crops to plant along with their decisions regarding operating lines of credit.A call...
China In-Country Analysis
The market has been closely watching how reform proposals noted in the central government’s No. 1 agricultural policy document will be implemented. Meanwhi...
Market Commentary
KC and Chicago wheat futures traded steady to slightly higher much of the session with Mpls under slight pressure. Today was also first notice day for deli...
Fuel Market Outlook for Ethanol
While its prices are down and squeezing margins, ethanol is still more expensive than gasoline, which limits discretionary blending. Moreover, production h...
Loss Suits; Fourth Revolution
If the Internet is an example of how energy, mechanization and digitization can be melded to better inform the public, the lesson is that there is an equal...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The remaining exportable wheat surplus in Serbia totals about 800,000 MT with approximately 500,000 MT exported since the start of the campaign. Despite th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More On the Outlook Forum Numbers
The acreage numbers used weren’t surprising. The talk over most of the winter has been that U.S. farmers want to plant more corn. There might be some exter...
Agricultural Outlook
USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson tried to identify the silver lining this week, saying that input costs would be lower and off-farm income would be hi...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The chemical sector is an integral part of the Indian economy. Because of the country's fuel blending program, though, it must rely on imports for a large...
Crop Insurance and the Budget
Crop insurance has been the most popular risk management tool among producers over the past two farm bills. It has also been a program supported by most me...
Market Commentary
Corn was under some selling pressure all day, and trading volume was above average. Another very strong day for the U.S. dollar also helped preserve the be...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Renewed Hormone Retaliation; Farm Bill Subsidies
USDA reports that the Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs in the 2014 Farm Bill cost $500 million dollars more than the direct payme...
Feeder Outlook; Red Meat Production; White Angus
Despite less expensive feed last year, high cattle prices until the end of the year kept feedlot margins mostly in the red. With an expanded cattle supply...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was quiet with grains and soybeans holding small gains. The release of USDA’s acreage projections for 2016/17 gave markets something new...
U.S. Agriculture Outlook
USDA's Outlook Forum got underway this morning where its planted acreage and farmgate price projections were released. Unlike the initial and final estimat...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA released its annual long-range projections for major U.S. crops earlier this week. While it does forecast a small boost in soybean yields, some life s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic milling wheat, feed wheat and feed barley prices all increased during 15-19 February as a result of the weakening national currenc...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine corn premiums are coming down slowly from the high 50s to 48-50 CK for April and May shipment. It seems there are various buyers awaiting 40-45 C...
Market Commentary
Ongoing weakness in crude oil and financial markets put more downward pressure on grain and soy futures prices overnight. Then the mid-session rally of the...
Brexit Symbolism; GMO Hindsight
The UK’s Agriculture Ministry is apparently split over Brexit. Meanwhile, British farmers are no doubt frustrated with rules from Brussels such as the requ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The latest FAO report on Iran’s grain crops shows small increases for all in 2015 with both wheat and barley production up about 7 percent. Overall 2...
Market Commentary
It was Turnaround Tuesday with a vengeance. Prices were mostly lower but also largely lacking buyers or sellers in slow overnight trade. Corn posted an alm...
Tiptoeing into Climatology
One of the most studied patterns used by climatologists is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, commonly referred to as ENSO. However, there are other factors...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazilian farmers are increasingly concerned that some states are beginning to impose ICMS taxes (value-added taxes on sales and services) on commodities m...
Argentina Update
Mauricio Marci was elected president of Argentina on 22 November 2015 based on a reform agenda he promised as a market-oriented conservative. Since he took...
Food Control; Export Taxes; Campaign Topics
Under pressure from European political leaders, the Continent’s food manufacturers have conceded to an effort at making their products more healthful. Howe...
The Return of Monetary Velocity
Commodity prices are down, the stock market is volatile, and global economic news is worrisome. Nonetheless, it looks like the U.S. economy is about to gro...
Federal Crop Revenue Insurance
It was the excellent revenue insurance program that was most responsible for pushing cash land rental rates and actual land values so high and so quickly d...
RFS and GMO; TTIP Life Support
U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet this week in Brussels, but actual progress on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) may be going bac...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
Given the current state of China’s economy and its slowdown, the food inflation spike in January to the highest level since May 2014 plus the notable incre...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures responded to the sharp gains in crude and financial markets, trading 8-9 higher at mid-morning before weakening towards noon. Meanwhile, co...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
It has become difficult to find offers for Russian 12.5 protein wheat below $180 FOB, while German wheat with similar quality is offered at $175 FOB. Meanw...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed futures were uneventful today with very narrow trading ranges. Volume was strong in corn, while it was just average in wheat and soybeans...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Lentils are now trading at record high prices with peas expected to follow. These high old crop prices and relatively strong new crop prices will have an i...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) released the 2nd Agricultural Production Estimates for the 2015/16 crop on 15 February 2016, which includes the rabi season (...
2016-2017 Crude Oil Forecast
The real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the world as weighted by oil consumption, which increased by an estimated 2.4 percent in 2015, indicates...
Market Commentary
Today’s price action shows that without the recent bout of short covering, grain and soy markets are starved for direction. March options expire tomorrow (...
Argentina over Cuba; Smarter, Fatter
President Obama is receiving more press coverage (and more political ridicule) over his upcoming trip to Cuba, but his second leg in the voyage to Argentin...
What is Missing?
It is nearly eight years since the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession, and many central banks have used aggressive monetary policies to stimu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
French company Avril has agreed to invest in a partnership with Dow AgroSciences to develop a high-protein winter rapeseed for planting in France. The rape...
USDA Releases Long-Term Outlook
In preparation for its Outlook Conference next week, USDA released its 2016-25 baseline outlook today, which indicates growth in a number of areas. USDA Re...
Costly Misleading Activists; Healthy Food; Preemption
USDA is increasing the amount of healthy foods, including perishable fruits and vegetables, that stores must stock in order to become an approved retailer...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
With the Brazilian lineup growing and Chinese margins improving, soybean demand is expected to return to Argentina. The last trades were performed at 11 SN...
Market Commentary
Renewed short covering helped grain and soy markets to recover overnight losses and move modestly higher, a pretty apt description of the price action thro...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wheat and barley prices at the Russian market moved in different directions during the week in review, but they mainly dropped as rye and corn prices grew...
EPA in Court Over the RFS – Seven Times
The latest two lawsuits facing U.S. EPA are from Valero, the nation’s largest refiner and third-largest ethanol producer. The first petitions that EPA move...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade was rather dull with low volume overnight and again during the day session. Prices traded on both sides of Monday’s closes in n...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A recent study released in Europe indicated Africa’s failure to adopt GM crops cost its agriculture sector $2.5 billion from 2008 to 2013. It further noted...
Potpourri of Odds and Ends
Despite the usual lack of important fresh inputs for markets to digest, there is a seasonal trend for grain and soy futures prices to move slowly and modes...
TTIP; Regionalization; India; Cuba
The EU achieved a significant victory in the WTO where a dispute settlement panel ruled that Russia’s import ban on European pigs and pig meat was “disprop...
Oilseed Highlights
The Philippine government is scrambling to publish new regulations governing the importation, consumption and production of GM crops by 23 February. This i...
Market Commentary
It was another day of very narrow trading ranges for corn, wheat and the soy complex with volume more normal or average. Heading into today, managed money...
Farm Bill Trouble; Fat Bastard
One plank in the Republican candidacy of Donald Trump for the American presidency is frustration with so-called political correctness. He would be blowing...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The state governments in India have taken effective steps over the past few months to control the supplies and costs of pulses in the face of a potentially...
North American Wheat Outlook Changing
Projected tight wheat stocks in Canada and more ample supplies in the U.S. are likely to impact planting decisions with implications for the wheat outlook...
Crop Program Spending
Although the payment estimates from the president’s budget and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for FY 2016 are relatively close and within standard e...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Despite another sinking spell by world stock markets, overnight trading in grain and soy futures was low in terms of volume and very quiet in terms of pric...
CME Actions on Cattle Market; NCBA Response
The CME yesterday announced specific actions that it will take regarding the live cattle futures market, which followed complaints from two producer groups...
Oilseed Highlights
While Russian Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev denied that his country's newly announced ban on U.S. corn and soybean imports was in any way politica...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Too Much Pursuing Too Little
Too much supply pursuing too little demand has been the predominant common thread tying up grain and soy markets for more than a year. The markets’ job is...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Moscow Enablers; How Sweet it Isn’t
The media reports the gloating of some activists as more countries consider imposing taxes on sugary drinks as a purported health initiative. However, the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Grain prices at both the Russian and Ukrainian markets continued to rise in the local currencies due to their devaluations. Meanwhile, Russia plans to impl...
Market Commentary
Soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were mostly all sharply steady today. There was small selling pressure into the close, but that only dropped prices a p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina's corn market is quiet. Origination becomes a few dollars more expensive every day, and replacement basis is above FOB offers. Because of this, c...
President’s Budget Proposes Crop Insurance Cuts
Crop insurance baseline spending cuts are to occur over several years and come from a 10 percent reduction in all policies containing a “harvest price opti...
Market Commentary
The day started with another round of gloom and doom as well as a risk-off mentality. Grain and oilseed futures markets were little changed overnight and t...
Oilseed Highlights
India’s soybean processors have greatly reduced their crush volume due to certain factors and had asked the government to take specific action to boost imp...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The latest USDA FAS GAIN report for Turkey shows 2015/16 production of wheat, barley and corn will be higher. Although imports of these three grains are ex...
USDA Report Maintains the Bearish Trend
There was nothing bullish in USDA’s numbers today. However, USDA did tinker with corn more than anticipated in mid-winter and revised the world wheat endin...
TTIP Gone; Ag Pain; Energy Bill Threats
A bipartisan bill entitled the “Energy Policy Modernization Act” is stranded as U.S. Senate negotiators hold proxy fights over things like aid to Flint, Mi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The grain and oilseed markets were mostly steady overnight, but that changed when U.S. financial markets opened with big losses. Those losses accelerated q...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
Newly released data indicates U.S. agricultural exports to China declined in December 2015 for some products, but there were notable increases for others...
February USDA Reports
The trade will likely focus on crop production estimates for Brazil and Argentina in tomorrow’s USDA reports. Even though no one expects significant change...
Ag Review: Big Data
From Cold War to Farms Big data got a slow start in agriculture and many fear some of the outcomes it offers, but opportunity is certainly one of them. Lin...
FY 2017 Budget Preview
Typically, the submission of the president’s budget sparks a number of congressional hearings and starts the process of Congress formulating its own FY 201...
Ethanol’s Role; Big Trouble; Meatless Philosophy
China has record stocks of unpalatable rice, rancid vegetable oil, tainted wheat and moldy corn, and Beijing is trying to square how to make the surpluses...
TPP; China Acquisitions; Countercyclical; VW
The TPP agreement was signed this week in New Zealand, and some ministers proclaimed that they would not wait for the Americans before pushing it through t...
Cotton: Farm Programs No, Commodity Certificates Yes
While USDA has determined that it does not have the authority to designate cottonseed as a minor oilseed under the 2014 Farm Bill, it did announce the elig...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Ever wonder how dirt cheap energy could be so bearish today when that used to be a bullish economic factor, or how some people know who’s buying and sellin...
Market Commentary
Wheat was steady overnight but turned lower at today’s opening. The selling pushed the March Chicago contract below $4.70, and that triggered more technica...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The collapse of India's agriculture sector is apparent throughout the country and results from several factors. Due to the needs of a growing populat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Japan-Australia Trade Agreement Threatens U.S. Beef in Japan
Unlike the U.S., Australia inked a direct bilateral deal with Japan in 2014, the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA), which took effect...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
After notifying Congress yesterday that he lacks the legal authority to provide subsidies to cottonseed under the PLC and ARC programs, USDA Secretar...
Market Commentary
The weaker USD helped support grain and soy futures prices overnight amid decent trading volume. However, its influence waned during day session futures tr...
Selling Commodity Markets
It is not easy to change long-entrenched, negative public perceptions about futures markets and speculators, much less explain why they are important in ev...
GM Doors Open; Taxing Burgers and Oil
China National Chemical’s (ChemChina’s) purchase of Syngenta will not only lead to improved crop yields in China, but it should also create a path for comp...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn lineups are astonishing everyone in Argentina. More than 1.5 MMT were loaded in January, and close to 2 MMT are slated for February. March/April/May l...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Complex Food System Demands
Food system managers express frustration over the seemingly simplistic and yet complicated demands coming from consumers. In many ways, their demands are o...
Market Commentary
Futures price action during the day session more or less continued the overnight pattern with wheat closing a few pennies higher, corn down less than 2 cen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While some grain market experts are expecting a 35 percent boost in Ukrainian wheat exports in MY 2015/16 compared with the past two years, there are also...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Zambia reports that it has received many maize export requests from neighboring countries that it is unable to meet. Zimbabwe is said to have asked for 500...
Oilseed Highlights
According to an Indonesian government official, the French Senate passed biodiversity legislation on 21 January that would impose a very high progressive t...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseeds markets firmed up at today’s opening. The most positive market action today was across the soy complex with corn trying to follow the ra...
Imagined Demand; Farm Bill Trouble; Wrong in Iowa
The ink is barely dry on the 2014 Farm Bill and its implementation is incomplete. However, lobbyists in Washington are already advising that it is time to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Cruz Wins Iowa Republican Caucus Despite Opposing RFS
Cruz stated that the RFS itself, specifically the EPA-issued Required Volume Obligations (RVOs), limited the use of corn ethanol compared with the statutor...
The El Nino Winter Continues
Weather was in the market news last week as it always is, but there was also another round of discussion regarding El Nino/La Nina and the weather patterns...
TPP; TTIP; Scofflaws
The EU Commission has determined that there is no need for continent-wide legislation to deal with perceived unfair trading power by wholesalers/grocers ov...
Market Commentary
Overnight selling accelerated at today’s opening, notably in wheat. Corn and soy markets did recover most of their losses this morning, but those minor gai...
China In-Country Analysis
China's soymeal inventories continued the pattern established after the first week of 2016 and dropped by 80,600 MT (-5.6 percent) last week to 1.35...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Demand is difficult to find, and there are several other competitive origins. Meanwhile, Ukrainian...