U.S. cattle producers, upset that prices for their animals have slid precipitously from previous highs, will be happy to learn that Europe is having better...
Articles
Backwards U.S. Farm Policy
One of the purported goals of the White House-sponsored “Rural Council” awarding assistance to “Local Foods, Local Places” (LFLP) partner communities...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade was rather dull and low volume in nature overnight as well as again during the day session. Prices traded on both sides of Mond...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznador) today indicated it may soon prohibit U.S. soybean imports because...
Natural Gas Consumption and Price Up
EIA reported this week that marketed natural gas in 2015 was priced 6 percent higher on average than 2014 levels, while it also has projected that co...
China and the Soybean Market
China’s economic slowdown may have a direct negative impact on the volume of copper or crude oil it imports, but does this have a similar effect on its imp...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
More details have been released regarding the Egyptian government’s program to become self-sufficient in wheat. The plan is to reclaim 1.5 million feddan (...
Pig in a Poke; UnGRAS Selective Breeding
When the U.S. Congress gave extra incentives for the production of a fuel (cellulosic ethanol) that did not exist, too many naive policymakers thought it w...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Egypt’s GASC bought 235,000 MT of Romanian, French and Russian wheat last week at an average price of $189.17/MT, approximately $1.50 cheaper than what the...
Weather Politics
While the House of Representatives will not return to session now until 1 February, the Senate has enough members in DC to convene tomorrow morning. That b...
Market Commentary
Corn managed to eke out miniscule gains when the soy and wheat markets moved to new daily highs in the last hour of trading, but it couldn’t hold even thos...
China In-Country Analysis
China's average domestic corn price dropped for the second consecutive week, hitting its lowest level since 19 November. As of last Friday, it stood at RMB...
Potential U.S. Corn Balance Sheet
There are already a number of private analysts issuing guesses on what farmers will plant in 2016. Most are looking for more corn and soybean acres as well...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
SmartLabel; Ruse 65; Iowa Canary
A small group of U.S. senators has expressed concern that the food industry’s SmartLabel initiative is inaccessible to the poor. However, there are at leas...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is importing corn for the first time in 16 years, limited for use by only actual end users. Non-GM is specified and is being sourced from Ukraine. Ho...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The bearish psychology that has blanketed agricultural markets for many months has masked a significant developing story. That story is the severe drought...
Market Commentary
Commodity markets started strong this morning, pushed up against technical resistance and broke down when that resistance couldn’t be penetrated. Weekly U...
Federal Budget Outlook
This week CBO released a preview of its annual Budget and Economic Outlook for the 2016-2026 period. If the 2016 deficit projection is accurate, this will...
Cooking the Books; Sweet Mess; Polling
U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) knows he isn’t going to like the outcome of the U.S. International Trade Commission’s (ITC’s) review of the Trans-Pacif...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were active overnight with prices edging higher in line with outside markets. Trading quieted some during the day session with soybea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA Ending Grass-Fed/Natural Beef PVP
USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has withdrawn two voluntary marketing claim certifications for beef under the Process Verified Program (PVP) as...
Prices and Production Adjustments
Today production in South America or the Black Sea region and demand from China, North Africa or Southeast Asia are as important and influential to markets...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina's farmers have been seeking the recently enacted changes in the country's export policies to boost their incomes as well as improve their crop ro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade reports that domestic companies have now received licenses to export 400,000 MT of corn to the EU,...
Papering Over; Tardy; Local Poisoning; Hoarders
The Obama administration is suggesting that complaints from industry over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) can be resolved through implementation plans...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There was a great deal of movement this week in the Argentine soybean market with five to seven trades completed at levels of -2 FOB for 15 April and 58 SN...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets were buoyed yesterday by the macro influences from the financial sector, and they were pulled back today by those same influe...
An Updated View of Corn Supply/Demand
While USDA's lowering of the final 2015/16 U.S. corn production estimate in the January WASDE was a mild surprise, its forecast for ending stocks was adjus...
India Revamps and Expands Crop Insurance
This new model will more than double the government’s fiscal cost for premium subsidies, but it is also expected to more than double the amount of crop cov...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets as well as other commodities were caught up in surging world equity markets, which were heaving a macro sigh of relief that China’s g...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Soyoil has clearly gained the most demand in China during this decade. Its consumption is forecast to be one-third greater in 2015/16 than in 2010/11 despi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Low levels of precipitation are affecting South Africa's intended maize plantings for 2016 as well as those of Zambia. With farmers in both countries expec...
Protectionism; Legality; Commodity Cycle
South Korea has once again completely banned all imports of U.S. broiler meat due to a geographically limited outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI has issued a new seed price control order, effective March 2016, which aims to fix the sale price of cotton seed (with GM technology) as well as contro...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean futures markets had another mixed session. Everything was lower early, but corn and wheat rallied to trade 3-4 higher by midmorning...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Transatlantic Policies; Abetting Liars
Political analysts credit the rise of unconventional candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders to public frustration with the duplicity of convention...
Ethanol Issues and 2016 Outlook
While the controversy over the 2014, 2015, and 2016 RFS and RVOs continues, the EIA and USDA released their monthly forecasts for this year's ethanol deman...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There were two interesting presentations at farm meetings this week. The first was a weather recap by the climatologist from the University of North Dakota...
R-CALF USA Calls for Antitrust Investigation into Cattle Markets
R-CALF USA sent a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee on 5 January that requested an investigation into “potential antitrust and anticompetitive condu...
Trends and Fundamentals
The small declines in estimated 2015 U.S. corn and soybean production in this week’s WASDE along with the smaller winter wheat plantings for 2016/17 will n...
Market Commentary
It has taken a few days, but the effect of Tuesday’s USDA reports, which were seen as surprisingly bullish, seems to have largely worn off. Meanwhile, USDA...
Oilseed Highlights
There have been conflicting reports regarding whether Brazil’s soybean sector has asked the government there to file a WTO complaint against U.S. soybean s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TPP Handwriting; Shame on Chobani
U.S. agriculture is a major beneficiary of the TPP, but the sector is only really important in a minority of congressional districts. The rest of the busin...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures found both sides of yesterday’s closes, but prices did not stray far in either direction. Trading seemed subdued c...
Policy Machinations; Unnatural Edge
Just as Russia reaches the point of becoming the world’s largest wheat exporter, the government is proposing a move that could undermine that positioning...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Old crop corn continues to be traded in the Argentine market. At the FOB market, exporters are still offering their purchases from the FAS (before the elim...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
According to Rosselkhoznadzor data, Russia exported 23.6 MMT of grain as of 12 January and since the beginning of MY 2015/16. 35.57 MMT were exported in 20...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
When USDA lowered its production estimates for 2015 corn and soybeans today, it caught managed money funds leaning the wrong way. Wheat markets were domina...
Oilseed Highlights
While the reports were slightly positive for U.S. soybeans, that does not offset the overall negative outlook for the sector in the year ahead due to sever...
State of the Union Preview: Trade and the 2016 Campaign
With the 2016 election looming, tonight's State of the Union address is expected to have a sustained emphasis on the president's accomplishments. One Obama...
The USDA Reports
USDA released its reports today, which cover final production estimates for fall-harvested U.S. crops, 1 December quarterly stocks, winter wheat plan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Israel and Turkey are reported by Ukraine to be in discussions regarding FTAs that would cover its grains, oilseeds and agricultural equipment along with f...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tomorrow’s USDA’s Numbers
Even though the average trade estimate for corn production shows very little change from the November USDA report, there are a number of analysts who belie...
China In-Country Analysis
The projected drop in soybean imports during January and February should give the major crushers some added breathing room as they work through the massive...
The Politics of Ethanol and the Outlook for U.S. Senate Elections
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has capitalized on the national trend toward skepticism over the RFS among Republican voters, drawing the attention of the ethanol...
For the Dogs; Local Canard
After Australian Green Party leader Richard Di Natale declared that GMOs were not unsafe for humans, the Australian National Farmers’ Federation asked that...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean futures were steady overnight, although they turned decidedly lower once today’s session opened. Wheat and corn were down the harde...
Gamble by Campbell; Dangerous Maize; ISDS
The UK’s organic food promotion entity, the Soil Association, has gone beyond its warnings against chemicals and GMOs and now castigates one of the most pr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly higher overnight, and those gains turned into a mini short covering rally this morning. Outside markets were also mostly higher t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI is permitting PEC Limited, a State Trading Enterprise (STE), to import 500,000 MT of corn for poultry feed and starch manufacturers under the tar...
Outlook for Brazilian Real
While much attention has been focused on the value of the U.S. dollar since the U.S. Federal Reserve Board modified monetary policy and started to raise in...
Crop Budget
The crop budget worksheets are of course only estimates, and virtually every producer will have a different set of numbers. Yields are always the key facto...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Lower export sales were anticipated last week because of the New Year holiday. However, today’s USDA export sales report indicated net soybean export sales...
Dietary Guidelines Released
Today the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services jointly released the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. At the time of the...
USDA’s Monthly WASDE
All WASDEs are important, but some are considered more so than others. Each January issue will contain USDA/NASS’s final production estimates for fall harv...
Market Commentary
After early weakness, most corn futures contracts closed unchanged or near thereto. Meanwhile, in the face of all the macro turmoil, soy complex futures pe...
TPP Challenges; No Pudding, Some Meat
A larger problem for the TPP is that even the pact’s supporters in the U.S. (the business community) have mostly endorsed it with the caveat that it needs...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were lower as the overnight session ended and again as the day session opened. However, when March corn failed to break below...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Land Grab; China Biotech; Biofuel Cruising
Some in the biofuel community are lamenting that U.S. EPA slightly reduced the blend requirements for their prized fuel, but the U.S. Navy has announced pl...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While Argentine farmers continue to claim that they are not receiving the maximum prices exporters can pay for the goods, largely because of the large stoc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
According to sunflower oil traders, decreasing export prices may lead Ukrainian producers to consider a significant response. Those prices had dropped to $...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
As a result of recent policy changes by the Argentine government, farmers are now expected to double wheat plantings in the next growing season and corn pl...
Bundy Beef Subsidy; Transatlantic Shipping
An armed gang masquerading as honest hard-working cattle ranchers retains control of a federal wildlife refuge in Oregon. One accomplishment of this privat...
Too Many Bears?
There is no denying that grain and soy markets have been, and continue to be, driven by a barrage of bearish supply/demand fundamentals. However, when mark...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
It is reported that fewer than half of the maize plantings in South Africa have been completed due to the severe drought. With yellow maize prices up about...
Input Costs – Natural Gas
While grains were 19 percent lower on the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), energy was down 41 percent. However, there may be a silver lining t...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures contracts closed up about 1 cent except for January, which gained 3.25 cents and is now at a 10.5 cent premium to March. The inverse has be...
WOTUS and GM Labeling Outlook for 2016
While 2015 ended with passage of a major budget and appropriations bill, the WOTUS rule and legislation regarding the mandatory labeling of GM foods...
The Reality of Low Prices
As they begin planning for 2016, many producers are now thinking the big bull market might have been the worst thing to happen to production agriculture.20...
China In-Country Analysis
Early last week at the 2015 Provincial Economic Working Conference, provincial authorities announced resolutions to continue subsidizing local corn process...
NME China; Processed Labor; Oil Market
The U.S. is asking the EU to join in opposing China’s elevation next year to “Market Economy Status,” which may make antidumping cases more difficult to up...
Market Commentary
Rains across the dry areas in central and northeastern Brazil did materialize over the weekend with more in the forecasts. This precipitation coupled with...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
While Argentine feed wheat is trading at $155 FOB, which makes it the world’s cheapest feed wheat/grain, most EU importers are not willing to purchase it b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets on this last trading day of 2015 acted very much as they have for quite a while. Noncommercial traders are carrying large short positions in wheat...
New Era for Egg and Layer Industry Has Begun
More than a half-dozen companies have announced just this month their plans for procuring only cage-free eggs in the future. Overall, more than two dozen h...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Cautious Look at 2016
Big crops along with growing grain and soybean stocks will continue to be the most important underlying fundamental factor for futures markets and cash mar...
Organic Checkoff; TPP; Bear Market Bailout
The new year will likely bring the publication of a proposed rule by USDA instituting a checkoff program for organic crop producers. The proposal is contro...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While it has become common practice for exporters to fill all of their storage capacity with corn during December and January in preparation for March ship...
Year-End for the Food Pundits
While foodies are recounting their victories from 2015, including compelling an increasing number of major food vendors to pledge their future allegiance t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Agriculture Minister Aleksandr Tkachov indicated that the 104.3 MMT of grain harvested (in clean weight) covers the total 69.9 MMT required for dom...
Market Commentary
Soybeans futures closed mostly about 4-5 cents higher in surprisingly active trade. Long grain/short soybean spreads were being unwound, which contributed...
Market Commentary
Corn prices were helped out of the red by a strong rally in wheat and the ability of soybeans to recover from a mid-session sinking spell. Besides being a...
Dark Days for Commodity Funds
There are innumerable variations among commodity funds and how they are managed/ traded, but they share one very consistent characteristic.Trading by pools...
China’s Modernizing Feed Industry and Growing Commodity Demand
The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is projecting growth in meat output during 2016-20 and targeting “above scale” farms for this expansion. This signals a...
Unsweet Impacts; Not So Simple Future
Some studies suggest that Hershey's decision to no longer use sugar produced from sugar beets may end up causing more harm to the environment as a result...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports indicate some farmers are already abandoning soybeans in the drought-inflicted Brazilian states and have begun planting the fields to corn in hope...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt’s GASC has made a few important changes to its wheat purchase terms that impact the acceptable levels of ergot as the country also implemented tighte...
No More Beet Sugar in Hershey’s Kisses
While Hershey’s has always used both cane sugar and beet sugar, it will shift to using 100 percent of the former because it is non-GM. The issue is that 10...
China In-Country Analysis
China proved to be a welcome addition to Washington State’s export portfolio this past fall. With carryover of the 2014 apple crop running into early Novem...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The feed wheat market in the Black Sea is under pressure in the absence of buying interest with the low pro Argentine wheat significantly more competitive...
Technology Dampening; Supply Chains
Companies have been arguing that trade negotiators must catch up to the fact that global supply chains have become critically important. Lightening Metapho...
The IoT and Big Data Impact on Agriculture
Economics, as a discipline, has been based on several assumptions over the years, and the evolution of Big Data and the “Internet of Things” (IoT) is rapid...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets of nearly every type were lower in quiet holiday trading. Wheat tried to resist the downside pressure in corn and soybeans and was mostly successfu...
Some Christmas Wishes
While we still have a Christmas wish list, it no longer includes things like ice skates, a Lincoln Log set and a cowboy suit. Is our current wish list a be...
Food Outpaces Commodities; Top Five; Surveys
Major agricultural commodity prices will be mostly flat in 2016, according to USDA, but the agency predicts that food bought for consumption at home will i...
Cattle on Feed: Heifer Retention and Slaughter Weights
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Market Commentary
In a market environment like this, the price direction of least resistance is usually lower. Overnight trade seemed almost at a standstill with grain and s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Although U.S. exports and unshipped sales of soybeans and soymeal continue to run behind the pace of a year ago, today’s USDA export sales report indicated...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic milling wheat prices grew slightly. Thus, traders’ raised their bids to $142-172/MT EXW in order to accumulate necessary stocks before t...
Market Commentary
Corn futures contracts closed down three-quarters of a cent in very slow, quiet trade that moved corn prices within a narrow 3 cent range. The U.S. Energy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybean demand returned to Argentina last week. Six cargoes were traded FOB and CNF at levels of -9 SN FOB and 57 SN CNF, both for May/June shipment. Consi...
Tribalism; Gadflies; Luddites
People should be judged on the quality of their character and not the color of their skin (ethnic/geographic origin), but apparently it is the opposite whe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bona Fide Hedging
One of the thorniest issues involved in setting speculative position limits concerns the exemptions that commercial market users are able to receive for po...
GMO Labeling; Trade and Economics
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has reportedly invited both the food industry and anti-GMO advocates to a meeting on resolving the labeling issue. Given their i...
Where Does the Fed Go Next?
While Congress was busying piecing together a fiscal policy deal on the budget and taxes, the Federal Reserve moved to raise interest rates for the first t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Daily price action has become a technical affair with corn futures prices seemingly headed for a test of support near $3.63. Chicago March wheat has now fa...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Blumberg Grain Command and Control Center has opened in Egypt and will be used to manage the government’s Shouna Development Project. It is said...
Oilseed Highlights
India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) has once again urged the government of India (GOI) to raise the tariff on refined vegoil imports. It wants an...
Market Commentary
Wheat couldn’t find any friends today and was the weakest link in the agricultural markets. Like corn, Chicago wheat futures are mired in a technical tradi...
Cotton Supporters Seek Farm Program Status for Cottonseed
Technically, it is cotton lint that is no longer eligible for certain crop support programs, and cottonseed could qualify as an oilseed. Thus, the Na...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s domestic soymeal inventories decreased last week to 1.32 MMT, down 150,000 MT or 10.2 percent from the previous week, largely because of two factor...
Weather Starting to Play Bigger Role
The super strong El Nino continues to be in the news on almost a daily basis. It is also starting to receive some press in agricultural markets as its impa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU allocated 1.1 MMT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the cumulated total to 11.4 MMT versus 13.6 MMT at the same time last year. The weekl...
Nairobi’s Mixed Messages
The ministerial declaration emanating from the WTO’s meeting in Nairobi this past weekend is hailed by some as “historic” and by others as a disappointment...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India imported 1.337 MMT of vegetable oil in November 2015 versus 1.189 MMT during the same month a year ago, which has pulled prices down. While this may...
Meaningless and Meaningful Words
The major farmers and food makers in America lose when any biotechnology product approved through the regulatory process is disparaged. Meaningless Food W...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Brazil Weather Starting to Attract Attention
While it is difficult to assess the impact of weather on Brazil's overall crop production at this point in time, it is safe to say that it will be difficul...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s trade was a key technical reversal in the soybean market, and that brought more follow-through buying today. Wheat chased the soybean rally, wh...
Some Winners, Some Losers
As a result of equivalency agreements, Edward Jaenicke of Penn State University found that U.S. organic food exports have increased 58 percent over the pas...
WASDE and Long-Term Projections
USDA’s December WASDE report (released last week) indicates a slight reduction in broiler and beef production for 2015 and 2016, while it shows pork produc...
The Demand Side Blues
The simple fact is that annual production and thus the annual renewability of grain and oilseed supplies allows for a quick production response to high pri...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The soybean market staged a late session rally that caught the market by surprise. Its sudden reversal was strong enough to pull corn along with it and eve...
Oilseed Highlights
In its decision to ban the development of biotech eggplants, the Supreme Court of the Philippines also struck down a 2002 government regulation that allowe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
As FOB basis continued dropping last week, a cargo of Argentine soybeans was traded by the end of the week at levels of -2 SN for full May shipment. Today...
Omnibus and Tax Extender Deal Reached
Lawmakers reached a deal early this morning on the omnibus spending bill and the tax extender package. There are a number of provisions in both that signif...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices traded slightly firmer overnight, but they faded to red early in the day session and stayed that way through the close. Some of the we...
Food with Pathogens
People in the conventional food business are smiling as Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. walks back from its pledge to use “local” ingredients at it...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture’s first forecast for the 2016 grain harvest estimated it at 104 MMT. However, market experts are not as optimistic with...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of low cotton lint prices, the U.S. cotton industry is asking USDA to make cottonseed eligible for the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price L...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Pakistan reportedly has a large surplus of wheat that will rise considerably after the next harvest. If the government does adjust the export price, which...
Sickest; U.S. Dilemma; Perishable Cost
The World Health Organization (WHO) produced its first ever estimate of food-borne illnesses. While there are worse places in the world, the U.S. is a prim...
Market Commentary
With the stronger U.S. dollar, weaker soybeans and corn plus the absence of any supportive news or inputs, today’s stronger wheat market seems hard to rati...
A Few Random Thoughts
It is mid-December, a time when grain, soy and other commodity markets are anticipated to slow down with the Christmas holiday looming in 10 days. However,...
Still Awaiting the Omnibus
The omnibus budget bill has still not been released, although it was expected to be this afternoon. Received reports indicate that a large number of the am...
Market Commentary
The markets started the week mixed in the Sunday evening session, but corn, wheat and soybean futures traded higher through most of today. There was none o...
COP 21 Exemptions; Doha and Nairobi; Surveys
The Paris agreement on greenhouse gas reductions is at once a marvel and a façade. It reveals the extraordinary difficulty of getting a Conference of Parti...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea market for milling wheat remained about unchanged last week without any major trades reported. While the price in rubles is attractive to Rus...
No Budget and Tax Agreement – Debate Likely to Continue This Week
Indications from Capitol Hill suggest that the package could be released tomorrow, 15 December. House Speaker Paul Ryan says he remains committed to allowi...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week’s domestic corn prices averaged RMB 2,050/MT ($318.50/MT), a slight decline from the previous week. Local traders indicated a similar drop in the...
Preliminary USDA Baseline Projections
USDA released its preliminary 10-year baseline projections last Friday without much narrative. Like the weekly crop condition reports during the growing se...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were choppy overnight with corn and wheat slightly lower as soybean futures traded 3-4 higher on light volume. That pattern changed at this m...
El Nino Weather Notes
El Nino has become a popular topic of conversation these days, although it probably never made the news during the 1997-98 event.Paul Douglas, a nationally...
Renegotiation of TPP; Cotton Fluff
Word is that USDA is considering allowing cotton farmers access to not just the subsidy program the industry demanded as their key support in the 2014 Farm...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Current Budget Situation in Historical Context
Not one of the 12 regular appropriations bills for FY 2016 needed to be passed by 1 October 2015 under regular order was finalized. In fact, this has been...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower corn production in India led to higher prices for end users in early October 2015, forcing starch plants to reduce capacity with poultry operators pl...
Congress in Action
Amidst a great deal of cynicism and doubt, the U.S. Congress is on a path toward several accomplishments before departing late next week for the holidays.A...
Status of COOL
While the WTO approved $1 billion in retaliatory tariffs over the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) law, which will be imposed by Canada and Mexico as...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Growing Abundance
The definition of abundance forms the most significant common thread in USDA’s December WASDE as it projects large amounts of everything in its supply/dema...
Market Commentary
After a listless overnight session, grain and soy futures prices began to work higher as the day session developed. The only things new were the weekly exp...
Oilseed Highlights
CARIBO, the organization representing Argentina’s biodiesel producers, indicated it is seeking to prevent the U.S. Congress from converting the current bio...
GHGs; Locals; AMR; Produce
The Center for Science in the Public Interest looked at data from the Centers for Disease Control and concluded that fresh produce is the cause of most foo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There were few developments in either the FOB or FAS grain markets early this week in Argentina due to national holidays there. Local premiums did not even...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
322,200 MT of grains were exported from Ukrainian seaports during 30 November-6 December. This included 109,300 MT of wheat and 212,900 MT of corn. The lar...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The December WASDE is market neutral, and the corn and soy markets apparently came to the same conclusion. Wheat futures have been more impressed by today’...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
What’s Going on in Congress?
All Congress had to do was pass the omnibus spending bill before 11 December, the date when the current short-term continuing resolution expires. Each cham...
Ag Review: The 2016 Outlook
Technology, Finance, Geopolitics and Demographics The big four dynamics of technology, finance, geopolitics and demographics will collide to make 2016 very...
Broken Dispute Settlement; TPP Disappointments
The years-long effort to achieve a final outcome in the country-of-origin labeling (COOL) case by Canada and Mexico against the U.S. is one more example of...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Jordan’s grain import rules are said to be having a very serious effect on business there as can be seen by the lack of bidders in recent tenders and...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina’s incoming finance minister told the newspaper La Nation that the government wants to unify the nation’s exchange rate beginning 14 December. The...
Headline News
Some of the news headlines during the next week or two just might provide some of inputs for agricultural markets that have been missing during the l...
Market Commentary
Today’s market was a low volume affair during which it seemed corn and wheat prices hardly moved. The soy complex is where the action, or what passes for a...
Ridiculous Equality; UnCOOL Futures
The climate change conference in Paris is generating some of the ridiculous along with the rational, evidenced by a Global Justice Now statement claiming t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Bulgarian feed wheat was competitive against Ukrainian last week when the EUR/USD was below 1.06. With that rate close to 1.085 today, however, the Bulgari...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week mixed in the overnight session. That tone changed significantly when markets opened at 8:30 a.m. today, and it didn’t take long fo...
China In-Country Analysis
After weeks of steady increases, China’s nationwide estimated soymeal inventory declined slightly last week to 1.35 MMT from 1.39 MMT the week before as fa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
WTO Ruling on COOL
The WTO today ruled that Canada and Mexico are authorized to impose more than $1 billion in retaliatory tariffs on products shipped from the United States...
USDA’s December Reports Shouldn’t Hold Any Surprises
While USDA will make some changes to world production numbers, It is interesting to note where the ending supplies of the three major crops are located.USD...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's pulses crisis is expected to escalate as the new crop will only arrive at the market in April/May 2016, and the government will need to import addi...
Leverage; Organic Truth; Confusion
The U.S. is refusing to concede any significant reforms to its agricultural export credit and food aid programs as part of the revisions to export measures...
Trudeau Issues Marching Orders; COOL Looms
New Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has issued ministerial mandate letters to his cabinet as one of the first issues confronting the new agriculture...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean futures all started higher this morning. Funds are holding significant short positions in all three, while yesterday’s rally in the...
Stats Canada’s Final 2015 Crop Production Estimates
Statistics Canada released its final 2015 crop production estimates today, although these numbers are still subject to revisions for the next two years. Th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The corn and soy markets were buoyed by the sharply falling U.S. dollar and fund buying, but much less so than wheat. Soymeal and oil were also slightly fi...
Dumb Labels; Smart WTO; Monetary Spillover
Commodity markets jolted higher today, not because of any tightening of supply and demand but due to the technical reaction to Europe failing to meet finan...
A Law of Unintended Consequences
Many of the new regulations stemming from the Dodd-Frank bill apply to derivative markets and their participants. Unintended consequences abound, but there...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the main reasons the ruling power in Venezuela is likely to lose this Sunday's election is the nation’s acute lack of foreign exchange to purchase i...
Cloned Beef in China
The FDA has concluded that meat from clones and clone progeny is as safe as that from conventionally-bred animals. Now there is news from China indicating...
Oceanic Divides; Food Centric
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack called a spade a spade in Brussels this week when he said that there will be no Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw shrinking volume, lower prices for the grains and a stronger soy complex amid less-than-satisfactory weather forecasts for west/c...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While Brazilian beans are offered at +144 SH for February, U.S. beans are traded in the low 130s SF for January and could be around 135-140 SH for February...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Most grain exporters in Russia have stopped signing new contracts with Turkey, fearing introduction of a ban because of the current conflict between...
Currency; TPP Aspirants; GMOs; COP 21
The Coordinated Framework for the Regulation of Biotechnology has not been updated in 23 years, and the Obama administration is collecting public input on...
Potential Cropping Shifts in Argentina
With the elimination of the export taxes and quantitative restrictions on corn, wheat and sunseed, the incentive to farmers will change substantially. Beca...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and soymeal held their higher prices together during the day session, but the corn market struggled to maintain green numbers. The wheat market ga...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Thriving World Derivative Trade
To keep track of developing trends in the world trade of futures and options contracts, which now also include cleared swaps, the Futures Industry Associat...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Jordan continued to issue, cancel and reissue its wheat and barley tenders due to a lack of participation by international sellers. It is seeing some tende...
Argentina and Other Topics
There was an announcement over the weekend regarding Argentina's agricultural product export taxes as well as new information out of India about the status...
Paris Greenwashing; Biofuel Odds; Yuan
The City of Lights is glowing green this week, but environmentalists are charging that corporate sponsors of the UN conference on global climate change in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets were sharply steady to start this week. A rally developed with today’s openings, however, led by the soy complex with corn and wheat foll...
China In-Country Analysis
China's average domestic corn price continued to see gains last week. Looking ahead, prices for corn byproducts should trend upward as demand for bot...
Biofuel Volumes Set
Probably the most significant news from today's announcement is that the EPA has recalculated its assessment of carryover Renewable Identification Numbers...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea milling wheat market is lower due to the strength of the U.S. dollar and slow demand. Russian origin is facing more competition from France,...
Struggling Crops
There are a number of crops from Brazil to India that are being negatively impacted by weather events, which could have implications for planting decisions...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The corn arrivals at India's major production centers have been slow as this kharif season’s crop is expected to be much smaller than last year. Ther...
Consumer Price Index Up for Protein
USDA is now predicting beef prices will increase 6.5-7.5 percent in 2015 and another 1.5-2.5 percent in 2016, while poultry and egg prices are also forecas...
Market Commentary
This week's corn export sales, which were well above expectations for the second week in a row, had no impact on today’s trade. Prices were lower in light...
Leftovers
U.S. domestic catfish producers hope that USDA's final rule implementing a more robust inspection program for fish will find the imported variety to be as...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
With Argentina's presidential election now concluded, farmers may increase their corn planting intentions even further. Argentine corn seems to be the chea...
Corn Belt Analysis
Grain contracts basically transitioned into horizontal trading patterns prior to the release of the November WASDE on expectation of a larger harvest. Such...
Food Safety Illusions
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a new effort to reduce foodborne illnesses by collecting a larger number of food samples in an effort...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
According to Rusagrotrans, 1.52 MMT of grain will be shipped from Russian seaports during November, a drop from the 1.7 MMT previously forecast and less th...
Market Commentary
Before the day session opened this morning, USDA announced a sale of 190,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2015/16. Although it is not necessarily due to c...
Market Commentary
Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet has added another element to the complex Syrian-Middle Eastern conflict with possible ramifications for commodity...
Slow Boat to China; Consumers Flunk
China made several broad commitments to the U.S. at the recent bilateral meeting of the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade. However, USDA Secretary Vil...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt is the world’s second-largest producer of tilapia, producing 1.3 MMT today with expectations that the total will reach 2 MMT by 2020. This grow...
Paris Climate Conference and Agriculture
The end goal of the conference is to forge a new international agreement on climate change that would keep global warming below 2 degrees centigrade by the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand Update
USDA raised its national average soybean yield for 2015/16 to 48.3 bushels/acre and estimated U.S. soybean production to 3.981 billion bushels, both new re...
Oilseed Highlights
There have been several rumors floating around in Argentina that President-elect Mauricio Macri would suspend the collection of export taxes on soybeans fo...
Updating the Outlook for the RFS and an Interest Rate Hike
With the 30 November deadline looming for the U.S. EPA's decision on required volume obligations and the Fed's upcoming December meeting where an interest...
New Direction in Argentina
The weekend election in Argentina yielded the results that most people involved in agriculture wanted, and there seems little doubt that the current export...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets started steady to lower overnight and were decidedly lower by the time the night session closed. The election of the pro-business/agriculture candi...
Mercantilism; Macri; Doha
The big three (the U.S., EU and Japan) are opposing a continuation of the Doha round on the basis that the negotiations have gone nowhere for 14 years. Mea...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week's soymeal inventories in China surged to a 12.8 percent gain over the previous week. After remaining well below 2014 figures for months, they wer...
Mercantilism; Macri; Doha
The big three (the U.S., EU and Japan) are opposing a continuation of the Doha round on the basis that the negotiations have gone nowhere for 14 years. Mea...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
With farmers in Bulgaria and Romania selling part of their wheat stocks, Bulgarian 11.5 protein milling wheat is trading at a slight discount to the Ukrain...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets finished the week without a whimper. Trading ranges were relatively small, and volume was light. Meanwhile, U.S. corn export pric...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) has finally taken steps to help cane growers and the sugar industry at large. However, some trade experts argue that the plan...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
U.S. farmland values quadrupled over the last decade as record-high prices, good crop production and a generous crop insurance program created a big demand...
Argentine Election
Argentina could be a wildcard on the corn export market, provided that crop gets sown, if the leading presidential candidate wins and fulfills his promises...
Radioactive Europeans; China
For years, Europe has considered America’s food to be of poor quality or even dangerous. While its politicians helped characterize it all as radioactive, r...
Oilseed Highlights
While today’s USDA export sales report showed exporters had good success selling U.S. soy last week, it also indicates that sales and exports of soymeal to...
The Acreage Game
Analysts with a longer-term view of the markets are starting to put together budget worksheets for 2016 crops. The winter farm meeting season is about to e...
First GM Animal Approved for Human Consumption
Just to add a level of intrigue and excitement to the GMO labeling debate, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today has approved the first GM anim...
Caution to the Wind
Given farmers' current financial concerns, the bet by Farmland Partners, a real estate investment trust that continues to expand its portfolio of farmland...
Market Commentary
The story in today’s markets was there was some fund short covering as a result of one of the best weekly USDA export sales reports of this marketing year...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
COOL Strategy; WOTUS
A WTO arbitration panel is expected to rule on 7 December regarding the amount of retaliation that Canada and Mexico can impose on the U.S. as a result of...
Market Commentary
Corn futures resisted the downdraft in wheat and soybean futures, trading slightly lower much of the day. However, markets did stage a minor recovery in th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina's old crop wheat is already sold, and there has been no movement in the past few months. In terms of the new crop, Brazilian millers are saying t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices on the Russian grain market changed insignificantly 9-13 November 2015, while average wheat prices were steady. However, prices expressed in USD dec...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina may have lost biodiesel exports to African countries, but it clearly has been able to boost those to the U.S. as the volume has substantially inc...
Federal Reserve Minutes Released Tomorrow
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) meeting of 27-28 October. These are expected to be a prol...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. Corn Supply/Demand Estimates
Combined with the carry in stocks and modest imports, the total amount of U.S. corn supplies for 2015/16 is nearly as much as last year and the second-larg...
Green Complaints; China GMOs; South Africa
Environmentalists complain that the TPP rolls back requirements by some multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) and want stronger provisions on climat...
Market Commentary
The corn futures market may not have been a tower of strength today, but the December contract did close up 2 cents and within a half-cent of the day’s hig...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt is reported to be making great effort to induce local wheat farmers to use high-yielding, quality seed stock produced by the government’s Centr...
G-20; Nairobi; U.S.-China
The WTO Ministerial next month in Nairobi may be seeing a policy breakthrough, or not. Brazil and the EU have teamed up to try and break the logjam on the...
China In-Country Analysis
China Customs data indicates soybean imports during October totaled 5.53 MMT, 6.3 percent higher than the previous forecast of 5.2 MMT announced in Septemb...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
EU wheat has to find more export demand urgently, which means that French, German and Baltic stocks must become more competitive against those of Rus...
Crop Insurance Budget Battle Continues
Last week, Senators Jeff Flake (R-Arizona) and Jean Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) introduced legislation that called for the budget agreement's 8.9 percent cap...
Market Commentary
The world was anxious about how all markets would respond to the attacks in Paris, but the action was actually relatively calm. Grain and oilseed markets w...
A Look at World Supplies
There is no denying that global stocks have been building over the last two marketing years. However, today’s record-large supplies are only half of the st...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ethanol in Presidential Campaign Beyond Iowa
Both sides of the ethanol debate are hitting the airwaves trying to influence the outcome of the EPA’s decision regarding a proposed reduction in the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Indian poultry sector needs to gear up and add value to the chicken it produces if it wants to survive the current crisis of high input costs and low o...
Farmers Look for Cash
The current market situation begs the question: How will farmers generate cash while they wait in hope for a price rally?Prices are low (depending on your...
Market Commentary
The weekly USDA export sales report (delayed a day because of the holiday Wednesday) showed better than expected soybean sales with wheat and corn sales in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.Please note: Due to the Veterans Day holiday on Wednesday, 11 November 2015, updated CFTC Commitment of Trade...
Values; Cotton Bust; Dead Goose
The challenge to Europe and the U.S. in the TTIP negotiations is not how to handle tariffs, but how to manage value-based differences involving roughly two...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.Please note: due to the Veterans Day Holiday on 11 November, 2015, USDA will release the updated Export Sales...
China’s G-20; Derivatives; Processed
For centuries, the solution to prevent food spoilage and loss has involved processes such as thermal, chemical, atmospheric, etc. Now consumers are demandi...
Market Commentary
It has become hard to find things to comment about regarding grain and soy futures markets these days. There has been no news except for the November WADSE...
Oilseed Highlights
There is no question the Chinese government wants to reduce the country’s huge corn stocks and to cut the costs of its corn subsidy program; If China...
WASDE: Red Meat Down, Poultry Up
The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released on Tuesday of this week and shows offsetting changes in the r...
Where is the Market Headed Now?
At this point it is hard to see grain and soy markets staging a major rally barring a South American weather problem. Unless adverse weather intervenes in...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Warm weather and rains in some regions of Ukraine during the first week of November produced favorable effects on winter crop development in a number of re...
Corn Belt Analysis: Anticipating Market Data and Resulting Price Action
The present seems to be the time that end-users are being offered a favorable purchasing opportunity by a larger than expected U.S. crop, fund selling, and...
Modernity; Politics; Policy
Some on the political right in the U.S. have joined their ideological opposites on the left by taking decidedly “anti-American” positions on trade policy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine wheat production has been gradually dropping every year over the past decade due to the government’s intervention in the wheat market. By limitin...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices fell yesterday after USDA’s bearish production and supply/demand estimates. Several new contract lows were set. General Commen...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices fell yesterday after USDA’s bearish production and supply/demand estimates. Several new contract lows were set. General Commen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The November 2015 WASDE
We cannot call the November WASDE a major surprise because the direction of most major changes was well anticipated, if not their scope; today’s futures ma...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Today’s WASDE let some air out of grain and soy markets, at least in the short term, with December Corn trading through the low end of its recent trading r...
GIs/Biologics; Rabidity
Greenpeace's latest report on biotechnology may be welcomed by those already inclined against biotech but it will be scoffed at by those already using it...
National Security and Ag: Land, Water, Allies and Biotech
In a recent House Committee on Agriculture hearing covering National Security and Agriculture, key witness Ambassador John Negroponte touched upon som...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
South Africa is expected to have to import about 800,000 MT of maize this crop year to cover a drought-induced shortage. These are the first significant ma...
Oilseed Highlights
It is amazing that in what many believed to be a very challenging crop year the U.S. national average soybean yield was a record high. USDA Reports I...
Not Many Surprises Expected in Tomorrow’s USDA Reports
Most analysts don’t expect many surprises in tomorrow’s USDA November reports; in fact, if you just go by the “average” of the trade guesses there is littl...
Blend Wall Battle Over Ethanol
There is currently little incentive – other than the RFS mandate – to blend more ethanol if the price increases or the price of gasoline decreases in the c...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The weather in Bulgaria and Romania is generally favorable for winter wheat development, as well as for harvesting the remaining 10 percent of the corn cro...
Market Commentary
Corn struggled with the weakness in wheat today and amid expectations that USDA might increase corn ending supplies in tomorrow’s reports; corn export insp...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
Some analysts are projecting that Chinese soybean meal inventories will trend upward as feed mills take a wait-and-see approach and soybean imports into th...
House Passes Highway Bill – With Some Surprises
The first surprise involved reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank, but there were also several others related to the highway bill's funding.Two big vic...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Before the rabi planting season begins, the government of India (GOI) has announced the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for the crops that are grown such as w...
TPP and China; AGOA Integrity
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is being sold as a bulwark against China and its supposed lopsided way of doing business. However, that count...
Thoughts from a Conference in Europe
There was an excellent panelist discussion that included a person in the coffee industry, one in the cocoa/chocolate industry, a finance officer for a majo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures stabilized today after yesterday’s significant break. There is a threat of a trucker’s strike in Brazil next week, which might have slowed...
Oilseed Highlights
The final U.S. soy export data for 2014/15 was released yesterday, which indicated a notable increase from the previous marketing year. However, the change...
TPP Text Released
The text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement was released to commodity groups today along with a slew of promotion materials from USDA and the...
Market Commentary
Given the lack of anything else to trade on, grain and soy futures markets were mostly about weekly export sales numbers. Those numbers were disappointing,...
Wheat Market Realities
From any fundamental viewpoint, the current supply/demand outlook for U.S. wheat is quite bearish. The most important reason why, in our opinion, is the po...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Review: The Trade Issue
Reasons to give TPP the Bronze Bronze is very durable, but it is an alloy rather than a pure metal like gold or silver. The TPP is a bronze standard agreem...
TPP; Food Demand; Turnips
France’s National Association of Food Industries (ANIA) has reportedly asked the public's opinion about what they want from food processors and retailers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Cash basis could rebound in South American soybean markets if threatening weather develops and that stimulates world end users to purchase beyond the spot...
Market Commentary
The overnight futures session produced slightly lower prices for wheat and corn but slightly higher prices for soybeans. The grains were under pressure fro...
Biofuel Storm
Historically, it has been the petroleum industry griping about ethanol, but now some supporters of advanced biofuels contend that the conventional part of...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Because of the lack of rains, the condition of Russia’s winter crops worsened. Thus, the volume in weak condition grew to 25 percent compared with 16 perce...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil's ABIOVE today raised its forecast for the country's 2016 soybean crop from 97.8 MMT to 98.6 MMT. That is less than the forecasts of USDA and the Br...
Searching for a Price Driver
The futures market’s choppy price action within relatively narrow price bands for the last several weeks is a sign that it is searching for price direction...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey reports that this year’s wheat production will be a record 23 MMT, but imports will continue. This is because quite a bit of the crop is of lo...
Aussie Future; TPP; Ex-Im; WOTUS
The Australian government has produced a paper that details a plan for ensuring the success of that nation’s farmers in the years to come. It stresses the...
Market Commentary
U.S. wheat futures seemingly trade in a world of their own. Yesterday Chicago wheat lost 14 cents or so, and today it regained 8 cents or more. Why did tho...
10-Year Review of RFS
The House Science Space and Technology Committee’s Oversight and Environment subcommittees today held a hearing to review the cost and benefits of the Rene...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Senate Proposals to Block WOTUS
The U.S. Senate now has two proposals with different approaches that would stop the rule promulgated by the U.S. EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers known...
Nitrates: Deception all Around
The “Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine” (PCRM) filed a petition with USDA that calls for an end to the distribution of processed meats through...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU's 2015/16 wheat ending stocks could reach a record 20 MMT compared with 2014/15's 13.5 MMT. The balance sheet suggests that the EU should use...
Market Commentary
Technically speaking, there is nothing in the chart patterns of soybeans, soyoil or soymeal that would stop a limited selloff from occurring. The best thin...
U.S. Corn and Wheat Export Sales Pace in Trouble
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
China In-Country Analysis
The national and state government policies of subsidizing deep corn processors that purchase domestic stocks helped drive up the utilization rates of that...
Crop Insurance Spared Budget Cuts
Largely through the bipartisan efforts of the House and Senate Ag Committees' leadership, crop insurance cuts in the two-year budget agreement will be spar...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures were firm again today and are once more pushing toward the top end of the recent range in Chicago December futures. That contract tested $5.0...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
It was an interesting week in the markets for several reasons that ranged from U.S. harvest-related developments to a policy change abroad and an une...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's spot corn price has stabilized over the past few days in most markets, but today's average price was still lower than on 1 October. Meanwhile...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Fed Rates; India Needs; Migratory Influences
Government officials at this week’s ninth ministerial level meeting of the India – U.S. Trade Policy Forum agreed to continue talking, but independent Indi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Canada and COOL
Canadian pork producers are setting an agenda and expectations for the new Liberal Party government to be convened by Justin Trudeau, and trade is the key...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil’s government has approved the sale and use of higher biodiesel blends in order to address air pollution problems in big cities as well as concerns o...
China and Soybeans
Part of China’s October buying burst can be attributed to compensating for the slow pace of its new crop 2015/16 soybeans purchases during prior months. No...
Market Commentary
Overnight price action for grain and soy futures contracts was mixed with most trading both sides in a modest way. Volume was not impressive. The day sessi...
Data; Litters; Children; Enemies
China’s relaxation of its one-child policy has some speculating about future food demand impacts. However, there are several mitigating factors. Data Smorg...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
It is entirely possible that Argentina's peso could decline 25 percent from the current official exchange rate by the end of 2015. If so, that countr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Rice; Insurance Bellyache
Japan agreed to a side letter with the U.S. under the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that defines the way in which it will manage a tariff-rate quota (tra...
Market Commentary
Grain, soybean and soymeal prices weakened in moderate overnight trading, and that carried over to the day session. In the absence of fresh inputs to direc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Deputy Minister of Agriculture Sergey Levin noted in a speech today that the ministry may reconsider the size of the wheat export duty or cancel it...
Indonesia; Antibiotics; Ex-Im; WOTUS
Supporters have managed to outmaneuver opponents and get reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank back on track in the U.S. Congress. Indonesian Dr...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iran is intending to export about 400,000 MT of domestic wheat as local supplies are sufficient to meet demand. The government’s stockpile is reporte...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The Indonesian government's director general of food crops indicates that imposition of a 10 percent tariff on soybeans is being considered as a way to enc...
A Few Comments as October Winds Down
We are not sure that history will single out October 2015 as being particularly notable, but it has been a very interesting month from the perspective of a...
Market Commentary
As it is Tuesday, grain and soy futures markets moved in opposite directions from Monday’s price action. Grain prices weakened, while soybeans gained back...
Budget Showdown over Crop Insurance
Last night the White House and congressional leadership came to terms on a budget agreement regarding a continuing resolution (CR) through the end of FY 20...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Market Can’t Buy Enough Corn and Soybeans
There have been a number of factors that will contribute to a slightly better bottom line than expected, regardless of the fact that futures markets haven’...
Market Commentary
Markets started this week on a more interesting and volatile note, led by wheat (of all things). Last Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed th...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The spread between feed wheat and corn in the EU has narrowed significantly during the last few days, mainly due to the sharp rally of the USD versus the e...
China In-Country Analysis
Although the estimated average utilization rate of the major soybean processors is trending upward, China’s soymeal inventories continue to fall as feed de...
Less than Good Science
The World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) strikes again, this time concluding that processed meat is carcinogenic...
Add Puerto Rico to the List of Crises Congress Must Address
Congress has a number of critical issues that it must address by the end of this year. Add to that the pressing problems in Puerto Rico, which is facing sh...
China Causing California Drought?
Most would argue that a drought is the result of little or no rainfall, not exports of agricultural products to China or anywhere else on earth.CNBC carrie...
Market Commentary
Today was the last trading day for options on the November soybean contract. It staged a mini-rally in the last minutes of trade and made a run at $9.00 be...
Oilseed Highlights
Officials at the Brazilian port of Paranagua indicate 460,000 MT of soybeans were exported from there in September, up from only 136,000 MT during the same...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Fear of imports and the inability to sell the stocks purchased by Food Corporation of India (FCI) led GOI to announce another 10 percent increase in the wh...
Argentine Election
All the candidates agree that the fixed exchange rate must change eventually. Likewise, there is at least implicit recognition that the strongest sector of...
R&D Scuttled; GMO Foibles
The least developed countries (LDCs) are demanding an indefinite (read permanent) exemption from having to honor any intellectual property rights to pharma...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
This week’s grain and soy futures price rally continued during the overnight session in a somewhat muted fashion and with much lower trading volume than th...
Barriers to Global Dairy Trade
The U.S. dairy industry has substantially increased its exports since 2000. Moreover, global dairy demand is growing. Yet, dairy remains one of the commodi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Policy Potpourri
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says he plans to create a commission on farmland ownership in 2016. He classified the issue of who owns farmland as...
Food Critics and Thomas Malthus
There are a number of individuals finding a variety of things to criticize about the way food is produced, distributed and consumed. There is also another...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Today’s market action gave further signs that the seasonal price rally is underway. In the last two days, the November soybean contract has gained 14.25 ce...
Corn Belt Regional Analysis
There is a general expectation that any potential production shortfalls in the eastern Corn Belt this season will be more than compensated by the western s...
Ryan’s TTIP; Bloviators; GMO Label; Unbalanced
Whether he ascends to the speakership of the U.S. House or remains chair of its Ways and Means Committee, Congressman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) will be a pow...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia has been increasing its soybean production over the past several years because of high demand from domestic animal and poultry feed producers. Accor...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Competition has intensified for South American soybean exports as the recent 20-cent collapse in basis at the U.S. Gulf has brought U.S. production back in...
The EU’s Wheat Problems
While the EU was able to mostly deal with its huge wheat supplies in 2014/15 through large increases in feed use and exports, it will have greater difficul...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Egyptian pound was devalued by 1.2 percent last week as the country's importers still face difficulties making their payments in U.S. currency. Most ma...
Canadian Election Results
The centrist Liberal Party maintained its momentum and swept to power with 184 seats, 14 more than needed to gain an outright majority government. There ar...
Market Commentary
There are often days when prices for the grains and soybeans all move in the same direction, but we cannot recall one when closing price changes were as co...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
An assessment completed for several European agricultural organizations indicates costs to the EU feed and livestock industries would increase by up to 2.8...
Trudeau and TPP; TTIP’s Achilles Heel
The tariffs being negotiated in Miami this week on transatlantic trade are the easy part. The likelihood of removing regulatory barriers via the Transatlan...
Market Commentary
The soy complex seemed to have had some positive news to start the week, but that couldn’t translate into any gains for soybeans, meal or oil. A great chan...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Weather and Wheat
Wheat prices are now back to the level that the world’s buyers should seriously consider adding to their volume of inventories and long-term coverage. Howe...
China In-Country Analysis
The Chinese producers' soymeal price averaged RMB 2,837/MT ($447.20/MT) last week. That reflected a RMB 40/MT ($6.30/MT) increase from a week ago as the es...
U.S. EPA to Review Ethanol GHG Emissions
This is occurring as a number of anti-ethanol groups have again raised the issue of GHG emissions. One of the most strident is the Environmental Working Gr...
Subsidies; Burning Surpluses; Outnumbered; Consumers
This week the U.S. House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing excoriating the agricultural subsidies issued by foreign governments for the harm they c...
Election Day in Canada
Monday, 19 October is election day in Canada. In 2011, Harper’s Conservative Party (a.k.a. the Tories) won a majority in the House of Commons with just und...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Minor Crop Yields Also Big
Corn, wheat and soybeans are certainly the major crops that receive all of the market’s attention, but the so-called minor crops also enjoyed a banner year...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft again in the Thursday evening session and started lower today. They were expecting some pre-weekend hedge selling, although farmers conti...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulses are becoming more of a luxury food item than a stable protein in India as both demand and prices continue to rise. Similarly, poultry and dair...
Fair Play Turnabout; Healthy Unpalatable
No trade agreement is perfect, including the new “Bronze Standard” Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) accord. Now Democrats and Republicans are highlighting j...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Selective Organic; New Old Trade Policy
The EU Parliament’s agriculture committee rejected a regulatory reform proposal by the EU executive that would have made the organic food sector live up to...
Oilseed Highlights
ADM announced yesterday that it plans to add capacity at its rapeseed crushing plant in Straubing, Germany to process non-GM soybeans predominately sourced...
Futures Market Memories
Except for a few options contracts, virtually all trading of CME futures is now conducted electronically via computers. However, It seems to us that open o...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was in decline by the time the day session opened except for soybeans, which were maintained by commercial support until about mid-session...
South African Poultry Deadline
. In July, South Africa agreed to an annual antidumping duty-free quota of 65,000 MT for broiler meat that also allows for future growth. Today is the dead...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American soybean producers have already exported a good volume, and the likely additional increase from Brazil and Argentina is expected to reduce de...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic prices for milling wheat and feed wheat were more or less stable (in UAH expression) 5-9 October despite the growth in their respe...
Market Commentary
Without the leadership of the soy complex, wheat and corn futures prices struggled to stay near yesterday’s closes before finally closing lower. Wheat gave...
TPP’s Bronze Standard
Geopolitical analysts argue that the U.S. rushed to conclude a deal, any deal, because the Trans-Pacific Partnership's (TPP’s) real objective is to be a co...
TPP Politics; Data as Food; Marketing
The European Court of Justice’s ruling against the safe harbor agreement on data transfers across the Atlantic is being hailed by European nationalists. Ma...
Market Commentary
Price action in the overnight session was mixed with soybeans trading a few cents higher, wheat just above unchanged and corn slightly lower. Those results...
Oilseed Highlights
The slowdown in China's economy is clearly having a significant impact on 2015/16 global soybean demand as growth in its soybean imports is expected to be...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Presidential Hopefuls and TPP
It should be noted that the reported eight-chapter text of the agreement has not been publicly released yet, so a reasonable, pragmatic politician can be e...
What Comes Next?
A number of situations could erupt in unpredictable, serious ways that could interfere with world grain and soy trade flows and have significant effect on...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Saudi Arabia's grain imports for 2015/16 are expected to rise by about 1 MMT to 17.4 MMT. This includes 8.5 MMT of barley, 3.6 MMT of corn, 3.8 MMT of whea...
House Votes to End Crude Oil Ban
Heretofore, the one primary argument has been that exports of crude oil would increase the domestic price of oil. However, export advocates argue (and the...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
U.S. farmers will not be the only producers looking for ways to hold their financial statements together as it is becoming a worldwide problem. Everyone el...
China In-Country Analysis
Based on conversations with traders this past week, the average landed prices in China for U.S. DDGS have been RMB 1,400-1,450/MT ($221.20-229.10/MT). They...
Market Commentary
The November soybean contract was up as much as 8-9 early in the day with a high of $8.94½. $8.97-9.00 is still technical resistance, and the market hasn’t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Wrong Suspects; Horrible Trade Rhetoric
Three years of successive large agricultural crops coupled with slower economic growth and lower subsidies from Brussels have farmers in Europe complaining...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Bulgaria and Romania is slightly more active due to the price rally of Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Romania sold a cargo to Egypt’s GASC, and...