Agricultural markets opened steady to a fraction lower Sunday night, but soybean futures were trading good gains within the first hour. The buying across t...
Articles
Is It Real or Is It Memorex?
Most people won’t remember the “Is it real or is it Memorex?” slogan. With soybean futures finishing today up to 27 cents higher, though, some are wonderin...
Market Commentary
Markets were calm overnight in anticipation of today’s USDA WASDE, which is how today’s session started. Corn had new contract lows before the reports were...
WASDE Farm Bill Impacts; Russia Loses; TPP Movement; Barriers
Today’s WASDE report from USDA may have been bearish for the commodity markets, but it was bullish for the farm spending component of the next farm bill. W...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bearish USDA Reports
Today’s USDA reports were bearish at first glance. However, the picture for soybeans looks much more bullish when factoring record demand against reduced o...
Will Checkoff Programs Be Reformed in the Farm Bill?
Commodity checkoff programs, also known as research and promotion programs, have been the center of controversy in the last few years. As to be expected, w...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI may not be able to procure the volume of ethanol required to meet its Ethanol Blending Program (EBP) mandate of a 10 percent blend in all gasoline used...
Ag Hypocrisy; TTIP Potential Squandered
Neither the political left nor right possesses a monopoly on hypocrisy, but today’s example involves Iowa agribusiness owner Bruce Ratstetter, who is...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets traded rather quietly on both sides of Wednesday’s closes overnight, but action picked up during the day session, at least in terms o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina's oilseed processors want the country to grow more soybeans so that they can increase their capacity utilization. The country currently has about...
A Look at Cattle Herd Rebuilding
Among market watchers, there is now a great deal of prognostication about the pace of the cattle herd rebuilding amidst positive beef demand signs that can...
The Looming EU Wheat Futures Battle
Euronext’s Paris wheat futures could be considered a far better and more logical proxy for the world wheat market than Chicago wheat futures. The CME Group...
Ag Review: Aquaculture's Global Appeal
The Aquaculture Juggernaut Despite efforts by antagonists to end fish farming, its efficiency will keep it the dominant animal protein production methodolo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
PC Marketing; Flunking Science
NGOs in the United Kingdom are complaining to officials because food companies are predominantly marketing snack foods and drinks (“junk food”) during the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s new crop soybean market was active again this week. Two CNF cargoes were traded at $110 and $106 over the July CBOT contract, and one FOB cargo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Traders' domestic milling wheat bids in Ukraine kept growing, possibly due to rising export prices. Prices at the UBS ports prices continued to increase as...
Market Commentary
The overnight session featured stronger soybean and soy product prices with subdued trading of corn and wheat on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. However, t...
Indigenously Natural; Best Commodity Policy
Today was the International Day of the World’s Indigenous Peoples, which basically praised these subgroups for their disengagement from the world. The whol...
Oilseed Highlights
Indonesia’s palm oil stocks fell 8.2 percent to 1.8 MMT in June from 1.96 MMT at the end of May. That was the sixth straight month that they have declined,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Booming Export Demand
The June data shows that the trend toward larger U.S. exports is already underway, but current export sales volumes for 2016/17 provide a way to add some q...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mildly lower in overnight trading with volume no better than average. During the day session, trading in corn and wheat was a two...
U.S. Farm Production Expenditures Down in 2015
Total farm production expenditures were estimated at $362.8 billion for the year, an 8.8 percent decrease from $397.6 billion in 2014 that was driven by se...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Recent analysis of maize cereals and flour in Tanzania have shown very high levels of aflatoxin, but the government claims a different cause of the reporte...
Market Commentary
Soybeans, corn and wheat opened better than expected Sunday evening, and volume overnight was fairly strong in all three markets .USDA's announced sale of...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The prospects for limited exports out of France are increasing demand for Black Sea wheat as well as other origins. There was one unusual trade involving t...
Farmland Economics
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has released its annual survey results on farmland values and cash rents, which indicate some change...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Milking the System; Orwellian Policy; Killer Trade
Canada will extend and make permanent a program that enables dairy processors to obtain domestic milk at world market prices, which are well below the guar...
China In-Country Analysis
The sizable spread between China’s domestic wholesale pork price and foreign-produced pork, which went as high as RMB 26.74/kg ($4.02/kg) in Shanghai this...
Report Week
Virtually everyone involved to any extent in corn and soybean markets is anticipating that USDA will boost those yield estimates, chiefly for two reasons...
Market Commentary
USDA announced additional soybean export sales this morning, which pushed soybean futures as much as 20-22 cents higher early in today’s session. Corn stru...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
CME Announces More Changes for Cattle Futures
Today’s announcement included news that the CME will add a seasonal discount on live cattle tendered to one delivery location for the October contract (onl...
Farm Policy Risk; Trade Policy Risk
With the increasing attention in Washington on income inequality, any focus in the future on what parts of agriculture have money and assets while concurre...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The surge in corn and soybean export demand is elevating shuttle freight values as well. However, this is not a positive development for some. Meanwhile, t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India’s inability to import non-GM corn from international markets continues, high input and low output prices as well as other issues over the past few...
Late Complaint; Ganges Food; Darwin Eaters
Now that a WTO dispute settlement panel is forcing India to allow imports of American poultry products, the nation’s chicken farmers are nervous. Their rep...
Oilseed Highlights
It could be assumed that sustainability would not be much of an issue in the developing countries of Southeast Asia. However, there are European firms with...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy contracts once again tried to stage a rally overnight and then early in the day session. Meanwhile, the corn market is continually weighed do...
Speculative Position Limits – Again
Like the proverbial bad penny, the issues raised by the CFTC’s proposals to establish limits on the size of speculative positions held in derivative market...
Domestic Meat Consumption Up; Beef Trade Deal with Brazil
Domestic meat consumption in the U.S. is back on the rise with several factors all contributing to lower prices. Last year and 2013 were the on...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Grain prices on the Russian market continued to decrease overall, more significantly when expressed in USD since the ruble has weakened so much over the pa...
Market Commentary
Like corn, soybean futures contracts spent most of today’s trade posting green numbers. November soybeans were up as much as 13 cents at the day’s high bef...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Despite Argentina's high premiums, Brazilian buyers procured corn at $130 over the December contract for delivery in October and November. A large concern...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt’s wheat inspection committee announced that its initial investigation shows a small portion of the government’s local wheat purchases cannot be locat...
North American Carbon Reduction: A Tale of Two Nations
A carbon tax was the concept behind President Obama’s cap and trade proposal that was ultimately abandoned early in his first term. In Canada, meanwhile, E...
A Few Comments Upon Entering August
While grain and soy markets seem to slow down in August during some years, 2016 may not be such a time as there is so much going on of potential importance...
Ag Perspectives Readers’ Corn Yield Forecast
A survey of Ag Perspectives readers suggests the 2016 U.S. corn yield will exceed both 2014’s record and current USDA projections.What will the 2016 U.S. c...
Market Commentary
The overnight trade saw wheat prices edge higher while corn and soybeans drifted lower on yesterday’s fancy crop condition ratings. Trading volume was a bi...
Sweet is Sweet; Inequality
Although income inequality was heightened by the Great Recession and has statistically tempered, it remains a major policy concern. The outcome of research...
Oilseed Highlights
China's Agriculture Minister Han Changfu has announced government plans regarding future corn plantings that could have an impact on the country's soybean...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The soy complex opened weaker than expected Sunday evening and really never looked back last night or today. November futures were down as much as 44-45 ce...
China In-Country Analysis
In an effort to reduce China's swelling inventory of imported soybeans, crushing facilities steadily boosted their utilization rates throughout July. Howev...
Productivity; People; Marketing
Like Europe, U.S. use of inputs like fertilizer slowed as genetics and technology increased in their role in production. The difference is that U.S. agricu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farm Income Problems and What to Do
Low prices and weak or no profits are spurring a resurgence in marketing interest among farmers, and there are several steps that each can take.There have...
Impact of Presidential Race on Senate and Committees
Now that the major parties’ nominating-conventions are over, the presidential campaign enters its home stretch, a 100-day sprint to the finish. One o...
ARC Program in Search of New Yield Data
The American Soybean Association (ASA) just completed its July board meeting, and it is urging USDA to provide an administrative fix to the 2014 Farm Bill...
Bitter Labeling; U.S. Election and Economy
The recently enacted GMO labeling law may cause a bitter rift in one U.S. industry if USDA uses its discretion and determines that products containing suga...
Market Commentary
While corn is sitting at or near contract lows and wheat was lifeless again today, the soybean market received a lift from another round of export sales an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's sugar prices are expected to remain volatile as its area under sugarcane is down approximately 4 percent for 2016/17. Sugar is priced at $540/MT on...
More Concerns About the Farm Economy
The price collapse during July has again started to highlight some concerns about the state of the U.S. farm economy, but there is one bright spot.The pric...
Market Commentary
After trading slightly higher overnight, soybean futures prices gave way to a milder weather outlook and less than overwhelming weekly export sales data. T...
Trade Strategy; China’s Feed Market
China’s imports of DDGS were up nearly 20 percent in June but still down 75 percent compared to the first of last year. They should be higher based on the...
Mexican Beef Imports Increase – Don’t Tell Trump!
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has proposed renegotiating NAFTA and other existing trade deals. His motivation is based on a belief that a co...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Best of All Worlds
2016/17 is shaping up to be a far different and better year for producers, handlers, transporters, processors and exporters of the major U.S. row crops tha...
Oilseed Highlights
Compared with 2014/15, this year’s volume of U.S. soymeal exports has not been very good. However, it would be even worse if not for the big increase to tw...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets traded in better volume overnight with mixed results. Soybeans were firmer, but the grains held unchanged to slightly lower. Soon aft...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian soybean market has been reactivated for new crop. Fueled by the drop in CBOT soybean prices, buyers have been showing significant interest, a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Domestic milling wheat bids quoted by traders in Ukraine grew due to the slowdown in harvesting caused by rain as well as the low share of milling wheat in...
Industrial Challenge; GMO Contrasts; Cuban Mirage; TPP Death
The two major U.S. presidential candidates, Clinton and Trump, could not kill the prospects for a lame-duck vote on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) by...
Market Commentary
The U.S. wheat futures market was reacting to a 4.50 euro decline in the spot Paris wheat futures contract after several days of price appreciation. The so...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
It has been Vietnam’s rapidly increasing demand for pork, poultry meat and farm-raised fish that has driven the quick growth in demand for soymeal, corn an...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Silo owners in Egypt are reportedly protesting that the committee tasked with investigating the government's local wheat purchases is totally incompetent...
Reducing Food Waste: Will It Impact Commodity Markets?
USDA and the EPA have targeted a 50 percent reduction in food waste by 2030, which is about 4.75 billion pounds (2.375 MMT) annually for the next 14 years...
Looking Ahead to the August WASDE
One feature during July has been the consistency of USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings for corn and soybeans. There is already considerable discussion ab...
EU Fast-Track; Glyphosate Review; Gastro-Defamation
A post-Brexit revolt by member states has forced Brussels into conceding a ratification process to national parliaments on the Canada-EU Trade Agreement (C...
Veep Versus Veep on Agriculture
The two major party presidential candidates have now named their running mates, and both have distinct records as well as positions regarding agriculture.B...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The French market will be very volatile in the coming days/weeks under the influence of the reported yields and quality as the harvest progresses to the no...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Wrath for China; Convention Education; Trade not Harmful
Washington is known for lobbying, but the quadrennial U.S. political conventions are equally ripe targets for those trying to influence future policy direc...
Market Commentary
The soy complex was again under fairly heavy selling pressure to start this week. Meanwhile, corn had a narrow trading range today. Funds have liquidated t...
China In-Country Analysis
An analysis of the Dalian monthly data for June compared with that from May shows that the markets for soybeans, corn and related products are experiencing...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Now that weather has faded from the market screens, there are other items to discuss. Among a few to start the week are shuttle train values, U.S. winter w...
Bad Food for College
Canadian journalist and author Malcolm Gladwell has written some awesome books about life’s dynamics, but his latest correlation may be half-baked...
Market Commentary
Funds were still holding fairly large long positions in soybean and soymeal futures, but they were heavy sellers in both today. Corn withstood that onslaug...
Ethanol Hits Record Output
Ethanol output jumped last week by 25,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a weekly average of 1.03 million bpd, setting a record for the second consecutive...
Funds Give Up on a Weather Market
The spring rally in the soy complex, which dragged corn and wheat along, fit nicely into the La Nina weather scenario. Funds were very early to jump on tha...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Early this month, the United States sought trade sanctions against India after winning a dispute at the WTO regarding restrictions on imports of its poultr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Today’s USDA export sales report indicated last week was good for U.S. soy. The sales suggest the U.S. will have excellent exports through the remainder of...
China Drives Pork Expansion
While pork exports are down 6 percent from last year based on slower slaughter, those to China and Hong Kong increased notably during January-May with addi...
China Non-Market; SPS Cost; Cost of Non-GMO
The U.S. is hoping to negotiate with China on supply controls regarding steel and other products when the G-20 meets in September. Meanwhile, the EU says t...
Market Commentary
It was a two-sided and rather quiet market, both during overnight trading and again during the day session. However, that is not to say there was no price...
Tales from Export Sales
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
Market Commentary
The overnight session started with a halfhearted effort by grain and soy futures markets to recover from yesterday’s beatdown. Trade was on both sides of T...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
All ports in Argentina are facing logistic challenges that stem from Monday’s strike by two popular trucker unions. Meanwhile, traders there are debating w...
Stall and BS; China Hot Seat
The U.S. and India began talks to resolve a dispute over poultry trade before Washington imposes $450 million in retaliation. However, prospects are not go...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's domestic grain prices dropped as they traditionally do at this time of year, supported by a higher average yield at this time, although corn price...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Plank of the Republican Platform
Yesterday was the opening day of the Republican convention in Cleveland. Delegates there adopted the party’s latest platform, which included some highlight...
Oilseed Highlights
There is no question of a potential decrease in China’s soybean imports next year due to several factors, including a change in its price support program f...
Platform Jiu-Jitsu; Precautionary Kills
The Republicans struggled with writing the trade-related provisions of this year’s convention platform. That is because their presidential candidate is les...
Is the Wheat Outlook Changing?
The wheat market has been immersed in such a bearish mentality for so long that it almost seems to have become a permanent condition. However, there are so...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
13 African nations met in Tanzania to discuss ways of controlling aflatoxin, mainly with maize and groundnuts (peanuts). Much time was focused on the succe...
Market Commentary
After soy and corn prices recovered yesterday from deep early losses to close solidly higher, markets were unprepared for the unexpected rains and milder p...
The Curious State of Wheat
There hasn’t been any positive or bullish news around the wheat markets for a very long time. Despite what appears to be overwhelmingly bearish U.S. and wo...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Algerian OAIC bought 400,000 MT of EU wheat, paying around $198/MT CNF. Algeria is traditionally a captive market for French origin, but the French exp...
Massaging GIs; Entertainment, Not Policy
The latest Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations reportedly made progress in several areas, except on Brussels’ demand for Geo...
Market Commentary
Markets opened lower Sunday evening with soybeans again leading the markets down. November soybeans traded as much as 24 cents lower overnight on continued...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s estimated soymeal inventories continued to climb nationwide last week, rising another 80,000 MT to a total 800,000 MT. Several factors caused this...
Egg Market Volatility
In less than one year’s time, eggs have moved from record-high prices due to the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) to the lowest prices...
Weather and Yield Cushions
It is now at the mid-point of the growing season, and weather has been quite good. However, extended forecasts suggest a potential threat to yield cushions...
Does Monetary Policy Matter Anymore?
The conventional wisdom of the past eight years has been that without central bank action, the crisis of 2008-09 would have turned into a global depression...
UK Upper hand; R versus D on Ag
The two major U.S. political parties generally find ways to take polarizing positions on everything, and that includes agriculture. UK Upper hand The Frenc...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
To say that weather markets are unpredictable is to state the obvious, but today’s whipsaw price action carried that to an extreme. Soybean futures prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As India's domestic corn price remains higher than those on the world market, the country's 2016/17 corn tariff-rate quota (TRQ) of 500,000 MT was announce...
Cage-Free Massachusetts
The Humane Society of the U.S. (HSUS) has proposed a ballot initiative for this November’s election in Massachusetts, which was approved by the state’s Sup...
Oilseed Highlights
Senators Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and 12 others yesterday introduced legislation that would extend the current $1/gallon biodiesel tax...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures prices were hammered into big losses when hints of improved weather prospects sent long positioned traders running for cover. Today’s volat...
TTIP Wall; GMO Happy; Dumbing Quality
EU officials have expressed frustration that their U.S. counterparts have been unwilling to match their market access offers for advancing the Transatlanti...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Next New Guessing Game
Weather market is a term most applicable during times when prices are driven primarily by fear of what an extended period of adverse weather conditions mig...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The rapid increase in Argentine corn export premiums continues as they climb to the mid-90s for August-October shipment. Typically, fast-rising premiums le...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s post-report rally continued in overnight trading with grains and the soy complex all posting gains. That same pattern continued again during th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Fresh on Brexit; Ordering up Food
Venezuela's civilian leadership has tried vilifying the private sector food system, but that tactic failed to address shortages and food inflation. The per...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
A downward trend continued to dominate the Ukrainian milling wheat market last week and also spread to corn. The main reasons for this were the growing off...
The July WASDE
USDA's July WASDE was released at midday, which included updates to its U.S. and world supply/demand estimates for 2015/16 and revisions to its proje...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Free Trade in Ag
The Heritage Foundation, a free-market think tank in Washington, DC, released a paper yesterday, “Promoting Free Trade in Agriculture,” which is part of th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Zimbabwe and Malawi are both expected to suffer a notable drop in this year's maize production. The deficit will be very difficult to source from neighbori...
Market Commentary
Today’s market action, particularly the late soybean rally, has more to do with the potentially adverse weather outlook than anything contained in the July...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA’s WASDE report of today further tightened the soybean supply situation by boosting exports. It also raised its forecasts for soybean exports and crush...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA July Report Preview
Tomorrow’s corn numbers will almost have to be bearish. Meanwhile, the soybean outlook has clearly changed from a fundamental perspective after the world a...
Trade Policy Wall; Clinton versus Trump
Trade negotiations are going to be stuck for quite a while, and yet the status quo is an unfavorable situation. Trade Policy Wall TTIP: This week Brussels...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea milling wheat market is under pressure as the harvest is progressing rapidly under favorable weather. It has dropped approximately $20 in abo...
China In-Country Analysis
Given that four state-owned enterprises are the primary producers of ethanol in China, the government has appeared to throw them a lifeline by allowing the...
Veep Speculation: GOP and Democratic Selections Pending Soon
Speculation over who presumptive presidential nominees Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will pick as running mates is heating up as their respective party-...
Market Commentary
The extended weather forecast pushed soybean futures sharply higher to start the Sunday evening session. Corn and wheat were very reluctant followers, and...
Ag Review: Trade, the Election, and the Future
Trade, the Election and the Future Renegotiating trade agreements and improving citizen understanding are necessary public policy goals. The Importance of...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India has decided to increase the blending rate of ethanol in gasoline to 22.5 percent. However, the big question pertains to how this ethanol will be sour...
Viewing Brexit Through Jane Austen, the Queen, and Economic Policy
Almostt all of the information on the effect of Brexit is speculation at this point. However, the bottom line on economic growth for the UK boils down to w...
The Power of Money (Again)
The collapse in the soy complex, corn and wheat in just two weeks has been nothing short of amazing. It started with another “Black Swan” event when Great...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
India Retaliation; Politics over Science; NAFTA ROO
India has been blocking imports of U.S. broiler meat for nearly a decade, which was ruled illegal last year by a WTO dispute settlement panel. However, New...
Market Commentary
Soybean and soymeal futures took a real beating this week as funds reduced their long positions. It was a combination of better U.S. weather and weaker out...
GMO Labeling Debate Never Ends
The prospect of facing a patchwork of state labeling requirements caused food companies to push Congress to pass national labeling legislation that would s...
Putting the Brakes on Cage-Free Eggs?
When many major food services and several retail outlets made the decision to switch to cage-free eggs, the market was different than it currently is. Now...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading featured a strong rally effort by corn, which pulled wheat along as soybean prices fell under renewed selling pressure. Soymeal and soybe...
Oilseed Highlights
The Canadian province with the fastest-growing soybean area in recent years has been Manitoba where it has expanded 103 percent since 2012. This has been m...
Taxing Beans; Shuttering Democracy; UN Diktats
The World Health Organization is lamenting the fact that many governments have failed to employ marketing restrictions against foods deemed to contribute t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Domestic traders’ milling wheat bids in Ukraine decreased to $160-174/MT (3rd grade) and $150-169/MT EXW (3rd and 4th grades) with prices for the old harve...
Labeling Mess; Subsidizing Competitors; Trade Plan
Both the Vermont labeling law and the proposed federal labeling requirement pending in Congress are likely to lead to consumer confusion, but an equally ba...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soymeal futures did not need today’s expanded trading limits that resulted from yesterday’s limit down closes, but they did fall roughly $18 at session low...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Long positions being held in the Brazilian soybean market are maintaining depressed levels on the offer side despite the big drop of CBOT. After falling al...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Algeria’s purchases of French wheat are reported to be up 62 percent over last year. However, there are fears that the drop in its quality because of the h...
Campaign Issues; Farm Subsidies; GMO Rules
Trade has become a pivotal issue in the 2016 presidential election, but there is a sound argument that food would be a better target. Trade versus Food Tra...
Market Commentary
Macro weakness and favorable weather made a bearish combination for grain and soy markets. Even so, the soybean market’s gap down opening and subsequent co...
100 Years of Farm Bills
Although the new farm bill won’t be passed until 2018, a number of producer groups are already holding informal meetings in Washington, DC and elsewhere th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Points of Interest
As is usually the case at this point in the U.S. summer growing season and with USDA's June reports as well as the Fourth of July holiday now in the past,...
Oilseed Highlights
South Korea is reported to have sharply increased its imports of soybeans and soymeal in the first eight months of MY 2015/16 as those of two other oilseed...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The spot corn price at Gulabbagh (Bihar) was down 3.21 percent and the new crop delivery price fell in Uttar Pradesh on news that PEC Limited had been allo...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
It appears that a large percentage of both the hard red winter and soft red winter wheat crops will have to either find a home in very long-term storage or...
Market Commentary
It was a much more subdued overnight trading session that ended with wheat, corn and soybean futures all lower. More corn acres than expected in yest...
Poppycock over UK Food; TPP Renegotiation
Nearly half the food consumed in the UK is imported, but it is poppycock to suggest that somehow the Brits now have a food security issue. Poppycock over U...
Renewable Energy Replacing Coal
According to EIA, the renewable share of energy consumption in 2015 was its largest since the 1930s. Meanwhile, the most significant decline of U.S. fossil...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Generalized Malevolence Obsession
How else to explain the unending focus by critics against biotechnology than obsession with malevolence.How else to explain the unending focus by critics a...
U.S. Acreage and Grain Stocks
Every single number contained in today's USDA reports exceeded average trade expectations except for the one that is arguably of the greatest importance fo...
Market Commentary
Traders nervously awaited USDA’s June acreage and stocks reports, which have a considerable history of causing major price movements in grain and soy futur...
2015 Started New Cattle Cycle
A cattle cycle is a period when the nation’s number of beef cattle is alternately expanded and reduced for several consecutive years in response to perceiv...
Oilseed Highlights
Even with soybeans offering a better profit opportunity, U.S. farmers seem to favor another crop, much like their counterparts in Argentina apparently do...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
In a meeting with grain exporters on 28 June, Rosselkhoznadzor experts announced that the service believes certain changes need to be made in Yeysk and Tem...
Slapping Greenpeace; Trump Strategy; Ag Economy
Finally, some serious-minded intellectuals have decided to take action against the promoters of pseudoscience as a letter signed by 107 Nobel laureates has...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
After mixed trade in moderate volume overnight, traders' wariness ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports led to some noncommercial selling during the day session...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina still has some soybean cargoes available on July and August, and there will probably be some September as well. Today August is offered at 78 SQ,...
Global Food Philosophy; TPP Schedule; China’s Ills
The U.S. Congress is likely to pass the “Global Food Security Act” in final form legislation next month, which is intended to make permanent the Feed the F...
Economic Uncertainty
The global financial markets are full of anxiety. As yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury debt dropped to 1.44 percent yesterday, close to the all-time low of 1...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets started out the overnight session a bit lower in response to continued favorable weekly corn and soybean crop conditions. However, th...
30 June and 4 July
After being swept up in the geopolitical tsunami that resulted from the Brexit vote, grain and soy complex markets should return their focus to their own m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
White maize prices in South Africa continue to move higher as imports are just not able to keep up with local consumption levels, and stocks are reportedly...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Representatives of soybean producers from North and South America were in Brussels last week regarding EU reapproval of the use of glyphosate (Roundu...
Dubious Experts; Insider Trading; Palm Tax Nut
French politicians have reversed their earlier proposed tax on imported palm oil, supposedly intended to promote biodiversity in Southeast Asia. However, t...
Weather Remains an Issue
Soybeans took control again last night and today, trading sharply higher. No one could pinpoint the reasons for the big strength, although the daily export...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Will New Emission Standards Impact Long-Term Biodiesel Use?
One of the issues behind the blend wall for ethanol in the motor gasoline supply is the increased fuel economy standards that were passed at the same time...
Market Commentary
After recovering most of its losses last Friday, corn opened firmer Sunday evening in conjunction with the soybean market. Meanwhile, Brexit and the soarin...
China In-Country Analysis
If Henan Province serves as an indicator for China, there should be significant changes in planted corn acreage this year and next as well as in the plante...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
One of the consequences of Brexit is the disappearance of offers for UK feed wheat, which had been the cheapest origin for the Spanish market. This has als...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India has a mandate to use up to 10 percent ethanol in gasoline and was expected to reach a 5 percent blend rate by September 2016, but that may be in jeop...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Brexited!!
The markets have pummeled the British pound in the wake of the UK decision, but the EU has some reasons to fear Brexit as it is losing one of the stronger...
Thoughts and Observations from a Wheat Conference
Many different opinions and ideas were expressed at a wheat conference this week, which generated a number of thoughts and observations. The hard red wint...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex markets felt the pain from the Brexit vote even though the decision has virtually no effect on short-term supply/demand fundamentals...
Meaning of Brexit; RFS Quibble
Sometime in the future, nations will decide that globalization and integration have greater benefit for their people, and the negotiated reunion of nations...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazilian Agriculture Minister Blairo Maggi yesterday indicated specific steps the government plans to take to boost supplies of soybeans and corn in order...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
GMO Label; Natural; Food versus Fuel; Ergot
Lawsuits challenging foods labeled as natural when there are pesticide residues present open up a large can of worms. Biotech Labeling Compromise The biote...
China’ Meat Consumption Recommendation
China's National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) has updated its dietary recommendations, but its view on meat consumption is contrary to the...
Tales Spun by Export Sales
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
Market Commentary
Lowered weather concerns and a technically weak corn posture generated broad-based selling across the grain and soy board. It started overnight for corn an...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybean demand in Brazil suddenly decided to cover all the shorts due to the lack of farmer selling, and basis is rising nonstop. August was trading at +11...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices decreased slightly because of a more stable national currency and slightly lower export prices. Feed wheat and barley prices...
Brexit Informs Much; One-Sided Transparency
According to polling in Britain, the Leave or Brexit campaign is largely supported by older, lower-skilled workers. By contrast, the Remain or Bremain posi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
After the beat down of the past two days, grain and soy futures markets took a consolidating pause today. As expected, prices traded lower on follow-throug...
Oilseed Highlights
The voracious appetite for meat has been the greatest driver of soymeal demand in the last 25 years. Now the Chinese government seems to have decided that...
Knowing Quality; Jobs and Protectionism; Meat Morals
EU Agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan tried to reassure farmers that protecting geographical indicators (GIs) in international trade negotiations is a top...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Jordan has revised its wheat tender terms in order to attract more participants. It has raised the sunn pest (suni pest) allowable levels and will apply US...
Market Crosswinds
There are many different pressure points facing fund managers these days, and they are stirring up crosswinds for grain and soy markets.Grain and soy futur...
Market Commentary
The theme of risk reduction was established early during the overnight session, and it dominated the market as the day session opened. Several factors led...
Congressional Hearings of Interest to Agriculture
The House of Representatives has 18 committee hearings scheduled for tomorrow. At least five are of interest to agriculture, which include topics related t...
China In-Country Analysis
The restrictions that China’s central government imposes on the stock exchanges have probably unintentionally encouraged speculators and instant wealth see...
Ag Appropriations Pilot Program to Reassess 2014 ARC Payments
The FY 2017 agriculture appropriations bill includes a provision offered by Senator John Hoeven (R-North Dakota), initiated by concerns that some North Dak...
Market Commentary
Markets opened sharply lower Sunday evening. Corn actually lost more ground today, likely the result of a more or less benign weather forecast as the all-i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Savior Rally
The big rallies in corn and soybeans since late March have been met with a huge sigh of relief from U.S. farmers and agricultural bankers. Farm meetings la...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The extremely tight old crop situation and strong rally of the CBOT corn futures during the last five weeks have stopped the farmer selling in the Black Se...
Rules of the Road; Miscellaneous
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew criticized China for imposing restrictions on U.S. businesses that are making it more difficult for them to operate in the Midd...
Summer Weather
Market chatter has been somewhat obsessed since last winter with the potential El Nino/La Nina shift and the potential ramifications this might have for cr...
Insights from Consumer Food Spending
This week the Census Bureau released the May 2016 U.S. retail sales data. This marked the 14th consecutive month that food service has outsold the grocery...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's retail inflation reached a 21-month high of 5.76 percent in May 2016, largely fueled by protein demand, espcially for pulses. The expected good mon...
Market Commentary
The multi-day collapse in soy complex prices ended overnight with higher trade in soybeans and soymeal, and that strength dragged corn and wheat along as w...
Better Ag Policy; Nothing Changes; Meatless; Energy Economics
The International Resources Panel, launched by the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP), has issued a report quantifying that one-third of the world...
Deadly Hyperbolism; Chem-Free Farming; Sugar Tax Failure
After a nearly three-year delay, the EU Commission has issued criteria for identifying endocrine disruptors. Significantly, the specific potency of the dis...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets spent the day mired in the red. At their lows, corn futures were down at least 9 cents, soybeans were off around 30 cents and soymeal...
Oilseed Highlights
The National Oilseed Processor Association’s (NOPA’s) soybean crush report of yesterday indicated its members had the largest May crush ever, driven by goo...
Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
USDA released its monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report today, which showed herd rebuilding is having an impact on the beef cattle market. I...
An Economic Stress Test
One of the most alarming aspects of the current situation is that eight years of extraordinarily loose monetary policies have been unable to put national e...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices work both side of yesterday’s closes, although they were slightly firmer as the trading recess neared. Led b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil cannot sell any more deferred soybeans, and some of the recent market trades for July and August were just washouts or short covering. Meanwhile, Ar...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Domestic grain prices in Russia increased for almost all crops because of the tight deficit of stocks. Meanwhile, they were mostly stable in Ukraine...
Risky TTIP Conclusion; Future of Agriculture
While the European Parliament followed the advice of activist Olivier De Schutter in rejecting the use of intensive, conventional agriculture in Africa, G-...
Weather, the Fed and Brexit
Four months ago, there were quite a few complaints about the lack of market volatility. Has this glum outlook really changed for the better? Obviously, the...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices weakened in active overnight trading. The theme of lower prices carried over into the day session, and long liquidation became more wi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Maize prices in Kenya have been moving higher as import supplies have become increasingly more difficult to source from neighboring countries. They have re...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
House Ways and Means Committee Looks at Ag Trade
The recent U.S. ITC report on the TPP identified agriculture as one of the sectors that will benefit the most. The House Ways and Means Committee’s Subcomm...
Oilseed Highlights
The head of Argentina’s Ministry of Agri-Industry yesterday indicated the government was very close to reaching a deal with Monsanto regarding the inspecti...
Market Commentary
Soybeans ripped sharply higher on the opening Sunday night based on less-than-expected weekend rainfall. That early rally was the high for the night and al...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The outlook for U.S. soybeans has undergone a quick and remarkable change over the past three months after being decidedly bearish in February and early Ma...
Latest RFS Reform Plan Targets Fuel Side of Equation
The total blend of ethanol in the fuel supply in 2016 is about 10.1 percent based on the ethanol volume of 14.5 billion gallons. If set at 9.7 percen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
Weekly data from the Dalian Exchange confirms the trend in soymeal that began in early May has now weakened as investors take profits. Through today, the s...
Organic Chemical Burden; Trade Rules
Big Ag continues to play defense and thus gets beaten regularly in its battle against antagonists. The latest black eye was delivered by 47 Green Party mem...
USDA Reports
The U.S. winter wheat production estimate was 6 percent higher from the May number. That is a significant increase, all in hard winter wheat, and justified...
Market Commentary
There appears to be no stopping the soybean train yet. This is the ninth week in a row of higher soy complex trade and, by some accounts, the longest rally...
EPA Holds Hearing on 2017 RFS Proposal
The U.S. EPA held a public hearing in Kansas City yesterday to receive comments on the 2017 proposed Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for biofuels under...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Write with Clarity; Slap the DR
Momentum is supposedly building in Congress to fully liberalize economic engagement with Cuba. Meanwhile, the president’s Export Council (PEC) has pondered...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Farmers do not wish to grow soybeans in 2016/17 for many reasons, including low prices and a lack of good seeds as well as fear that the excessive rains fo...
World Food Security Update
Defining and quantifying world food security is difficult, to say the least, but there is at least one significant effort to do so. Since 2012, the DuPont-...
Stone Age Starvation; All Politics
In the U.S., regulators with a scientific background weigh the approval of new drugs and chemicals. In the EU, it is left up to politicians and the sway of...
Market Commentary
Prices for the grains and soybeans turned a bit lower overnight in much quieter trade. The day session faced a more diverse set of inputs. General Comments...
Ag Review: The Global Livestock Industry
Issues Plaguing the Meat Industry From animal welfare to meat substitutes, the livestock sector faces many challenges. U.S. Meat Exports and the TPP The U...
PEDv in Manitoba
After 16 months of no additional incidents of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) in the province of Manitoba, authorities are confirming three new case...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the advantages Argentina has had in the last year in exporting soybeans, soy products and other agricultural commodities has been its weak currency...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Grain prices at the Ukrainian ports rose during the week in review because of limited offer, but that should be a short-term trend. According to forecasts,...
Market Commentary
Price action in the grains was rather quiet and mixed, leading to small gains overnight while the soy complex worked its way higher. Soybeans and soymeal t...
China’s Offer; Cage-Free Hurt; Trump and Brexit
The Obama Administration will spend $16.8 million to encourage healthier food purchase decisions by SNAP recipients. However, a notable food assistance dev...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The South American soybean market showed some movement in the first week of June. In Argentina, trades were made at levels of 49 SN for June shipment and 6...
War on America; War on Salt; Subsidies to Pollute
The European Commission once again failed to achieve agreement by a qualified majority to provide a temporary extension for the approved use of glyphosate...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
According to reports in Egypt, the price for local poultry, the main consumers of corn and soymeal, has grown 25 percent in recent weeks. While some source...
Ethanol: Exports Help Scale Blendwall
Through the first quarter of 2016, domestic ethanol use totaled 3.4864 billion gallons or 83.01 million barrels. Until higher blends can circumvent the ble...
A Few Random Thoughts
This is a particular time on the crop cycle calendar when there is a multitude of crop and market-related possibilities floating around but very few factor...
Market Commentary
The overnight session was considerably less frenetic than Monday’s with corn, wheat and soybeans trading both sides of yesterday’s closes on about half the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Although India expects to produce a larger soybean crop in 2016, its protein meal exports continued to drop in May as a lack of supply and high prices made...
Market Commentary
Markets started strong Sunday evening and finished that way with soybeans and soymeal again leading the way. The buying accelerated at today’s opening with...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The corn market in the Black Sea is extremely firm due to the CBOT futures rally and slow pace of farmer selling. Corn is now at an approximate $10-15 prem...
Ethanol and Crude Oil Shipments from the Midwest
Most crude oil, ethanol and biodiesel rail shipments in the United States originate in the Midwest (PADD 2). While only a relatively small percentage of cr...
Commodities Back in the Lead
It’s far too early to say the bear market is dead. It is interesting, however, to watch how some of these commodity markets have exploded higher without an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
The producers' price for soyoil (grade 4) averaged RMB 6,268/MT (approximately $952.70/MT) last week, up RMB 142/MT ($21.60/MT) from the previous week and...
Sugar War; Mixed on Quotas; Other Briefs
Policy can have a great impact on markets, as shown by the current multi-prong attack on sugar. Some say this will be a huge benefit to artificial sweetene...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The March is On
No market has attracted as much attention over the past few years like the soy complex has in recent months. One of the slogans of a very successful colleg...
Skimming Pockets; Notable
The Organic Trade Association issued a study showing that income was higher and poverty lower in the 225 counties with significant organic food production...
Funding for USDA Loan Programs an Issue
According to a recent Federal Reserve report, prices were below breakeven for a number of commodities in the Corn Belt. It also indicates that credit condi...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CECA) has approved an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for all 2016/17 kharif crops. While pulses h...
Market Commentary
It was another day of volatile price action in the soy complex. This time around, much of the market’s strength occurred during the overnight session. Mean...
GAO to Investigate Cattle Market
The GAO announced yesterday that it has accepted the Senate Judiciary Committee’s request, spearheaded by a letter it received in January from R-CALF USA,&...
Market Commentary
It was another blowout kind of a day for the soy complex with grain futures attempting to follow. Once again, overnight trading and price action provided l...
Oilseed Highlights
A European environmental group, Transport & Environment (T&E), claims the EU biodiesel industry has sharply increased its usage of palm oil as a fe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
What is Weather Worth?
Although this bull market has been driven at least in part by speculative money from noncommercial traders, it could not have survived as long and as stron...
Bigger than TTIP; Milk Fight; Beer Fear
While Washington and Brussels are blaming one another for the lack of progress in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The placid overnight trading pattern was quickly cast aside as the day session opened. Renewed fund buying and bull spreading of soybeans and then corn qui...
Topsy-Turvy; CAP 2020; Mad Meat Blockades
The EU has opened debate on the next (2020) iteration of the Common Agricultural Policy, and some want it to look more like U.S. policy. Topsy-Turvy Politi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil’s soybean market keeps heating up with the basis showing a regular daily increase as the old crop offer is being reduced due to the very negative or...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's domestic grain prices continued to rise due to the decreasing stocks and offers of the 2015 production. However, barley prices started dropp...
Supreme Court Rules on WOTUS
The Supreme Court weighed in today on the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) wetlands regulatory rule. At issue was whether final agency action by the Arm...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
USDA FAS published a report this week on the Egyptian program of land reclamation. The report points out that if the planned 630,000 hectares of desert are...
Vague Law; Leap; Fool’s Gold; Commoditization
Greens and others in Canada have dreamed up what is termed the “Leap Manifesto,” which they contend would move society closer to utopia, and their aspirati...
Market Commentary
Market bulls are receiving no help from the weather outlook, and the generally softer prices seen during most of the day session are a sign of that. The ab...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil’s farmers would be expected to sharply boost their soybean plantings in the upcoming crop year as a result of the high prices. However, they may be...
World Soybean Outlook for 2016/17
WASDE projections of record-large world production in 2016/17 still leading to an 8 MMT reduction in ending soybean supplies painted a tempting picture for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. Corn and Soybean Export Objective Too Small
There is no question that U.S. corn and soybean exports will be greater than anticipated even a month ago in USDA’s May WASDE, largely because of some sign...
Market Commentary
Markets were relatively quiet today. USDA announced the sale of 100,000 MT of soymeal to unknown. That was enough to generate light fund buying that held s...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s pulses demand is close to 24 MMT with current production stagnant at about 17-18 MMT, leading the country to be a net importer. Now Canada, Austral...
Foodsuasion; Risky Purchase II
A key hindrance to the EU extending the approved use of glyphosate in Brussels is coming from German politicians. They do not accept the opinion of Europe&...
Corn Shortage in Brazil Impacting Livestock and Wheat
Several factors have contributed to Brazil's bullish corn market, squeezing chicken and hog producers. In turn, this is having an impact on wheat prices th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Brexit Blunder; Quotas
A British decision to leave (Brexit) the European Union may or may not lead to more positive outcomes in terms of the country’s economics or domestic harmo...
USDA to Re-Propose GIPSA Rule
The rule was first proposed in June 2010, per congressional direction in the 2008 Farm Bill. Specifically, Congress directed USDA to look at five issues re...
Commodity Speculation and the Real World
The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index was up about 10 percent during the 5 April-25 May period with much of that increase due to soybeans, meal and corn. The p...
Market Commentary
It was another see-saw type of day for grain and soy markets that started out higher across the board during an active overnight session. Wheat was the unl...
Oilseed Highlights
The rich countries of Europe along with some developing nations in Asia and Africa continue to oppose the planting, and in some cases the consumption, of G...
Fishy Cat Fight; EU for TTIP; Blame Shifting
The U.S. Senate approved (55 to 43) a measure today that would end USDA’s inspection of imported catfish and move the responsibility back to the FDA from w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Milling wheat prices started decreasing at the Ukrainian Black Sea (UBS) ports, mainly due to the exhaustion of export potential and the resultant lower de...
Market Commentary
Both the soybean and soymeal markets rallied overnight as the Dalian soymeal market prices stabilized amid another session of record trading volume. Undoub...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn situation in Argentina is not improving yet, and some are starting to think that the lineups will not ease until at least the end of July. Meanwhi...
U.S. AB Repeat; Unsustainable Demand; Xenophobes for the TPP
The EU reportedly described the U.S. effort at blocking an additional term for Korean Seung Wha Chang on the WTO Appellate Body as “unprecedented,” and Jap...
World Corn Outlook for 2016/17
USDA's projections for world corn production and consumption in 2016/17 are similar in pattern to those for 2015/16. However, there is a wild card in that...
Market Commentary
Everyone likes a little market excitement, but the back-and-forth price swings experienced today pushed the needle on that meter higher than it has been fo...
Dairy a Winner Under the TPP
The U.S. dairy sector is a big winner under the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), according to the recently released analysis of the agreement by the U.S. I...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
For the past few years, Egypt has been one of the top two importers of U.S. 60 percent protein corn gluten meal (CGM). However, the sudden rally in those p...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
New crop (July/August) feed wheat is offered at $170 FOB in Ukraine and Bulgaria. Bulgarian origin has a €12 advantage over the Ukrainian to EU destination...
Excessive Rain More of a Concern Today
The eastern Corn Belt struggled early with cool temperatures and wet conditions that delayed planting progress. May has been drier, though, and parts of th...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures were down as much as 20-22 cents at mid-morning, and that weakness in the soy complex kept wheat lower all day. Meanwhile, corn was very re...
China In-Country Analysis
While apple shipments to China pale in value and volume compared with other commodities, they are an important proxy for value goods as this fruit is a pre...
Ethanol Roundup
The U.S. EPA is looking at “several changes” to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) in order to “resolve outstanding issues” and “provide clarification” on i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
It was a very active night session with soymeal setting new highs in the July contract, trading $8-10 higher. That had soybean futures 12 cents higher with...
Snapshot of Credit Situation
There are plenty of worries about credit access and conditions in the agriculture sector. The Senate Agriculture Committee held a hearing yesterday on the...
AB Politics; Government Money; Exporter of Death
A draft EU-backed study of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) oddly concludes that the pact will actually raise the cost of food and...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India continues to import large quantities of palm oil, considered unhealthy by many and mostly used domestically as a base for mixed vegetable oils,...
Weather and Yields
Summer weather and yield potential will be next on the market’s agenda, and there has been much hype about the shift in weather patterns from El Nino to La...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
World Trends
The ebb and flow of world trade of grains and oilseeds is one of the more important determinants of domestic prices in major producing and exporting countr...
March of Luddites; Shallow Politics
It is easier for politicians to embrace a false perception of the past than to work on a policy approach whereby productivity gains and its associate...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Private analysts in Argentina indicate that country will not be able to meet its soybean export commitment in the current marketing year because it lacks a...
RFS Proposal Impacts Feed
U.S. EPA’s 2017 proposed Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) implies a likely increase in conventional&nbs...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets took little notice of the Fed’s bullish influence on the U.S. dollar yesterday, but that was not the case as the day session got unde...
Market Commentary
It can’t be said that the increased prospects of a Fed interest rate hike in June had any real impact on grain and soy markets today. Prices were slightly...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wheat (milling and feed) and corn prices continued to rise in RUB expression at the Russian grain market, although at a higher rate than previously. They a...
ITC on TPP; EWG Hag; Bear View
The supply side looks a mess as agricultural production outpaces demand. Rabobank even notes the expansion in poultry production by non-traditional supplie...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Origination has become very expensive for soybean exporters in Argentina. The FAS market keeps climbing as farmers are not eager to sell aggressively. In t...
Oilseed Highlights
Monsanto today announced it has suspended sale of future biotech soybean technologies in Argentina because of recent, disappointing discussions with the go...
Blairo Maggi New Brazilian Ag Minister
During his political career, Maggi made waves by supporting President Lula’s re-election because of the latter's commitment to growing the soybean industry...
World Soybean Outlook
USDA’s world 2016/17 soybean supply/demand projections provide a good benchmark from which to weigh potential, real changes in both. The soybean market see...
ITC Prompts TAA; Glyphosate Safe Again; Regulatory Coherence
Tomorrow is the day that the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) is expected to issue its impact analysis of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agre...
Market Commentary
The current mood of grain and soy futures markets seems mainly unaffected by details of planting progress and beneficial weather as today’s price action de...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Millers and grain traders in Zimbabwe have set a minimum purchase price for local maize of $335/MT, which is lower than the $390/MT that the government has...
Market Commentary
Markets traded lower much of today’s session. It seemed at times that they could make a significant move lower, but that sharper break just never happened...
China In-Country Analysis
While China's President Xi is driven to implement economic and agricultural policy reforms that will deleverage the Chinese economy and take away the loose...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is likely getting larger. Barring a wet weather pattern during the harvest period, the last issue is what the market ca...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Voter Crop Insurance Poll
With the possibility of an ag appropriations bill markup this week in the Senate and discussion already started about the next farm bill, National Crop Ins...
Farm Dust; New Rules; Pick a Veep
NASA has combined with Columbia University to produce a study (Geophysical Research Letters), which claims that fine particulate matter from food productio...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
France’s exports to non-EU destinations have significantly increased during the last month as its wheat is competitive against Black Sea origins. Algeria b...
Risky Reading; Risky Purchase
The publication Consumers Report (CR) has long been depended upon for objective information about products for purchase, but it has become an unreliable so...
Bill Proposed to Cap Ethanol under 10 Percent Blendwall
On Tuesday 10 May, House Representatives Bill Flores (R-Texas), Peter Welch (D-Vermont), Jim Costa (D-California), and Robert Goodlatte (R-Virginia) introd...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn prices continued to be down during the first few weeks of the harvest in Bihar, but they have been moving up as demand increased once industries reali...
Big Production and Big Demand
While the May USDA WASDE numbers projected another season of record or near-record yields and production, there are implications for the margin of error be...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures traded higher most of today’s session as the soy complex continued to struggle. Better harvest weather in Argentina coupled with mor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
No Natural at All
The U.S. FDA has collected public comments and now must decide what the term “natural” means on a food label.The U.S. FDA has collected public comments and...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA is initially forecasting Brazil’s and Argentina’s soybean harvested area in 2017 will increase by 900,000 hectares and 50,000 hectares, respectively...
USTR to Challenge China over Chicken
The U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR’s) office announced on 10 May that the U.S. will challenge China over its failure to bring its duties on U.S. chicken...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex prices firmed in overnight trade with the complex getting a big boost from the surging Dalian (DCE) soymeal contract, which closed up...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Grain Stocks Mythology
The concept of holding stocks of grain that can be used during times of need has a nice humanitarian ring to it. It only becomes a good deal less appealing...
Market Commentary
Markets were considerably more relaxed today amid consolidating trade that saw both sides of yesterday’s closes before finishing mostly lower. However, tod...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn situation in Argentina is generating big losses throughout the entire chain. It started with farmers not harvesting and thus not delivering to por...
Snookering Public Stockholding
WTO members committed in the Nairobi Ministerial declaration to create a rule regarding a government’s right to use stockholding for food security purposes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices increased slightly as did corn prices at the UBS ports due to export reasons. The milling rye market there remained stable a...
Market Commentary
The May WASDE with its first peak at supply/demand for the next crop year has a history of generating futures market volatility immediately following its r...
The May 2016 WASDE
This is always one of the most interesting of USDA’s monthly supply/demand reports as it is the first to provide the agency’s views of the next crop year a...
F Bombs; Stiffing; Currency Manipulation; Market Forces
Beijing wants the U.S. to concede to China the status of being a “market economy” under the rules of the WTO, but it has a funny way of trying to sway Wash...
Salacious Hamburger Study Could Follow Hot Dog Study in Media
Last October, the company Clear Labs of Menlo Park, California released the findings of its investigation into the molecular makeup of hot dogs. Industry s...
Oilseed Highlights
Monsanto today lowered its forecast for U.S. plantings of its Roundup Ready 2Xtend soybean this year from 3 million acres to 2 million acres. U.S. processo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
U.S. corn exports to North Africa/Africa in the first quarter of 2016 are down 75 percent versus 2015, mainly due to reduced business with Algeria, Morocco...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Geography is Destiny
It has been periodically charged that USDA has a bias in favor of farmers over consumers, and the agency’s local effort is evidence of the difficulty...
USDA Report Preview
These reports will set the tone for the markets until and unless weather changes the dynamics of the yield estimates, but USDA's corn and soybean productio...
Market Commentary
Last week’s unexpectedly big hard red winter wheat yield forecast from the wheat tours kept pressure on wheat again today. The big rally in the U.S. dollar...
EU Not Likely to Extend Biofuel Mandate After 2020
Leading the opposition was the UK, which the Department of Transport there indicates is preparing to offer legislative reforms to its own Renewable Fuel Tr...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. DDGS export shipments to China in March fell to their lowest level since December 2014. However, the steady drop since last July suggests that the dra...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Considering the Black Sea's high level of old crop stocks held by farmers and the arriving big crops, the total feed wheat supply at the start of the 2016/...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's high domestic feed ingredient prices have spurred livestock farmer groups to ask that GOI allow imports that may have been produced using grain and...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets were quiet and mixed in light volume. That all changed when the soy complex again started a significant rally in the first hour of today’...
TTIP Impasse; One Percenter Food; Border Trouble
Officials in the previous Commission at least attempted a small but overt effort to inform the European public and open minds to biotech; the current one i...
Canadian Grain Stocks and U.S. Winter Wheat Production
While today’s Stats Canada stock numbers did not contain any signficant surprises, two crops showed an interesting change from last year. Meanwhile, this w...
CRP Enrollment Announced
This is the 30th anniversary of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), which was created in the 1985 Farm Bill, and enrollment was the most selective in i...
House Bill Targets FDA Veterinary Feed Directive
Last June, the U.S. FDA issued the final rule implementing the agency’s Veterinary Feed Directive (VFD) “to ensure the judicious use of medically important...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Review: Global Wheat Markets and their Outlooks
Wheat Uncompeted Demand will grow, but wheat has been a loser in the competition against other commodities for profit and thus growing area. U.S. Wheat Sec...
Oilseed Highlights
China’s announcement that it was conducting an ant-dumping investigation of U.S. DDGS exports has impacted local importers' decisions, but other markets ar...
Bulls and Bears
The history of commodity and financial markets during the past 45 years suggests that complacency just might be the speculator/investor’s worst enemy, and...
Small America; Tele-Protectionism; Chemical Organic
Big non-food companies suggesting the dismantling of the food system because it is also big is certainly a big idea, but it cannot be characterized as prag...
Market Commentary
It was sort of a crazy day for grain and soy markets. The overnight session saw higher prices across the board, and that trend accelerated early in the day...
Too Big; Uncertainty; Sweet Revenues
A Chicago Booth survey of leading economists found that expertise caused both an increase and a decrease in certainty about the actual value of breaking up...
Market Commentary
The soy complex was once again supported by renewed strength of soymeal futures. It appeared that commercial end users were buying meal futures as protecti...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Several exporters in Argentina expect the export program to end soon because of the drop in soybean production. Offers started to decrease this week, but t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Processors' and traders' bid prices for soybeans on the Ukrainian domestic market rose to $374-394/MT EXW and $378-398/MT CPT, while CPT-port prices grew t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Morocco has decided to leave the soft wheat import tariff at 30 percent until the end of 2016. This resulted from the expected drop in the local wheat crop...
Oilseed Highlights
Mauricio Macri promised Argentina’s agricultural exports would increase sharply if he was elected president and eliminated export taxes. Data released by t...
The World Wheat Outlook
From 2013/14 through 2015/16, the world produced three record wheat crops in a row. 2016/17 production is unlikely to reach the level of 2015/16’s record 7...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
After reaching new rally highs overnight, the soybean and soymeal markets faltered soon after the day session opened. Meanwhile, good reports from the firs...
Budget Process Reform and The Farm Bill
The U.S. Senate Budget Committee recently held four hearings regarding reform of the congressional budget process. There is general consensus that it has b...
Organic; Titanic TTIP Sinking
The truth is that the extreme low levels of quantification available via organic chemistry means that very little in the food system will test at pure or a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop
USDA will release its first estimate of U.S. winter wheat production on 10 May, but this week’s Kansas crop quality tour will provide a reasonable idea of...
Currencies; Politics; Principles; Economy
The U.S. Treasury Department’s annual report comes closer than any prior assessment in calling out key trading partners for currency manipulation. Name Cal...
China In-Country Analysis
The April 2016 statistics for the Dalian Exchange show the impact of China’s move away from direct corn subsidies on a set floor price. The interesting thi...
Japan’s Economy and the TPP
While U.S. agriculture groups push for passage of the TPP, the longer-term stakes for restoring the Japanese economy, a major market for U.S. agricultural...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The soy complex, particularly soybean and soymeal futures, is where all the action continues to be. Soybean futures were lower overnight and traded down as...
World Turns; Food Fix
The food sector overflows with idealism, and while one person, one vote makes sense in democratic politics, an equal vote by all shareholders in an economi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Yogurt Battle Epitomizes Trends in Food Industry
The recent moves by two of the top three players in the yogurt market, Chobani and Dannon, underscore the marketing battle to gain consumer confidence rega...