This is the second year of what could be a multi-year correction in farmland prices due to lower commodity prices, increasing interest rates and slower inv...
Articles
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Has Problems
This has been a terrible harvest season for the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop with no end to the rain after three-four years of drought. The crop was mat...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) is adopting more stringent rules and procedures for domestic products, it is changing its me...
Market Commentary
Price action closed out this week in a dramatic manner that accurately reflects the increased uncertainty among a diverse group of traders. The greatest ch...
Reorganization and Budget
The current budget situation is only partially the result of the Republicans now controlling both houses of Congress. The White House says that the automat...
Oilseed Highlights
While it is still relatively early in the growing season, there is increasing concern about the impact heavy rains will have on key soybean-growing states...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Author Calls Dietary Guidelines Unconscionable
Nina Teicholz, author of New York Times bestseller The Big Fat Surprise, asserts that the bias against meat had its origins in a 1961 report from the Ameri...
The Potential Surprise of USDA’s 1 June Quarterly Stocks Reports
With all of the focus directed to the release of USDA's planted acreage estimates next Tuesday, the 1 June quarterly stocks reports, which will also be iss...
Market Commentary
Traders lured into short positions in the market by visions of another year of big crops on top of large carryout volumes decided they could no longer bear...
Big Week; Sugar; RFS
An orchestrated effort to change the supply management approach to the U.S. sugar market has been on hiatus for at least a decade, but that is about to cha...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices continued decreasing in the European part of the Russian grain market. This was especially true for barley and wheat, although the causes were somew...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine market participants are buoyed by the expectation that the U.S. will be unable to fully meet growing Chinese sorghum demand. While there are othe...
Market Commentary
Today's up-and-down price action in grain and soy futures markets is typical market fare leading up to key USDA reports, which in this case are the 30 June...
Prognosis; Implications; Bipartisanship; Taste
The American approval of TPA shifts the international focus to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but what are the implications of the former on the latt...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
In order to supply European firms seeking non-biotech soybeans and soymeal, the German farming company KTG Agrar AG has sharply increased its plantings of...
USDA Issues Report on Cuba Potential
USDA's Economic Research Service has released a report that discusses the potential to foster additional growth in U.S.-Cuba agricultural trade and the pos...
Market Vibrations
Market prices were driven steadily lower for much of the last six months, largely by the abundance of U.S. and world supplies of grains and soybeans. Never...
Market Commentary
The 30 June reports on acreage and quarterly stocks are already affecting grain and soy markets a week in advance. The apparent decline in crop conditions...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Iranian government forecasts wheat imports will drop to 2 MMT this year as it plans to purchase as much as 7.7 MMT of the expected 11 MMT in domestic p...
Brazilian Subsidies; False and Clever Choices; China
Brazil may reportedly challenge America's Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) program that is in the 2014 Farm Bill. However, there are at least two reasons wh...
Supreme Court Rules Against Raisin Marketing Order
Today's Supreme Court ruling against the federal raisin marketing order sets a precedent for many other such orders for specialty crops as well as for milk...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Strategie Grains, the French analytic firm, is forecasting that the EU 2015/16 wheat balance will be heavier than the current campaign for two primary reas...
Market Commentary
Corn again struggled to follow the strong rallies in wheat and soybeans today. The trade apparently believes the wet conditions haven't affected corn acres...
China In-Country Analysis
Several mid- and long-term fundamental trends in China have contributed to declining pig stocks in May compared with the previous month and the same period...
Crop Ratings – A Life of Their Own
While the majority of market participants seem to know that crop conditions are rather subjective and statistically insignificant in relation to the final...
Market Commentary
Soybeans were weak early in the session, but light fund buying brought prices back to unchanged before noon. It was a big week for soybeans as they traded...
House Subcommittee Passes Ag Appropriations
The overall spending for discretionary programs and mandatory nutrition programs totaled $143.9 billion, which is $3.2 billion less than the president's bu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of China indicate the government has decided to end its program of purchasing and storing rapeseed and rapeseed oil as a means to support farme...
The Acreage Discussion Picks up Some Steam
The discussion now centers on how many total acres of corn and soybeans were planted or will still get planted as well as how the mix between both crops ha...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With the current threat of El Nino, which could curb monsoon rains and negatively impact India's agriculture, GOI is taking steps to move farmers away from...
TPA/TAA Machinations; the Pope; Cotton Speculation
Pope Francis, whose upbringing was in the anti-elite populism of Argentina, now resides over perhaps the wealthiest institution on earth. Yet, he continues...
COOL Retaliation Turns to Arbitration
The U.S. has notified the WTO that it will seek arbitration over its mandatory country-of-origin labeling (COOL) statute and the latest ruling against...
Market Cycles
It is the cyclical nature of freely-traded futures markets that attracts traders and trading volume. If futures prices did not move up and down, there woul...
Market Commentary
After three days of higher futures prices, mainly as a result of noncommercial short covering, grain and soy futures markets seemed due for a breather toda...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine soybeans are being offered at around 30 SN for July and August, but demand has disappeared because Chinese buyers seem to believe that there will...
Market Commentary
Grains and the soy complex were trading factors other than interest rates today. Weather and technical considerations once again dominated grain markets, b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TPA; RFS; Organic; Welfare; Economy
Legislation has been introduced in the U.S. Congress to eliminate the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), but it has no chance at enactment. However, more notab...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
With favorable weather conditions reported for Russia's spring and winter crop development, Rusagrotrans, the nation's largest grain transportation provide...
Market Commentary
Corn was pulled higher by the strength of soybeans. However, wheat markets shrugged off lower winter wheat crop ratings and prospects for more rain to clos...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Currencies; Pope Omissions; Miscellany
While it is believed that Havana will soon end its dual currency system, there is a suggestion that Greece emerge out of its debt crisis by instead adoptin...
Refreshing the View
The most specific, direct influences for grain and soy markets appear to be USDA's various reports and weather, but the fundamental message we see is that...
Oilseed Highlights
Although soymeal imports for Australia and New Zealand have rapidly increased since 2000/01, the interesting change has occurred in both countries' preferr...
Fed Decision on Interest Rates Tomorrow
The debate in monetary policy for most of the year has regarded when the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates for the first time in nine years. The...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Pakistan has announced its intention to raise the soymeal import tariff from 11 to 21 percent as of 1 July, which is expected to boost its soybean imports...
China In-Country Analysis
Since early March 2015, the average soymeal price has been on a constant downward slide. We expect this trend to continue, as demand from downstream users...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Since the Russian government lifted the export tax on wheat approximately one month ago, there has been no real pressure on old crop prices. Instead, old c...
Market Commentary
Corn struggled under the pressure from the wheat market plus thoughts that the corn crop ratings might improve in today’s weekly report. The trade seems un...
Low Prices and Large Old Crop Supplies Causing Farmer Angst
Farmers now face a predicament they haven’t faced since the bull market started nearly 10 years ago: they are carrying large old crop supplies and have sol...
China In-Country Analysis
Since early March 2015, the average soymeal price has been on a constant downward slide. We expect this trend to continue, as demand from downstream users...
Trade Victory for U.S. Chickens in South Africa
U.S. chicken products have been blocked from South Africa since 2000 – the same year that the United States passed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (...
TPA Angst; WOTUS Lobbying; Unscientific Scientist
Reversing Friday's defeat of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) by legislators will require more than just a few days of lobbying and a change in the legisl...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With exports at a standstill and with only domestic buyers, sugar prices in India have crashed and are likely to remain so in 2015/16 as oversupply has had...
TPA’s Chance; Regressive West; Private Standards
President Obama will get another chance at House passage of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) bill, but it will require successful maneuvering of...
WOTUS Rule Backlash
Yesterday the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) issued a fact-check document rebutting the agency's "Fact Sheet" on the final rule, which also provide...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
It was a reverse crush day in the soy complex with soybean futures slightly lower most of the morning and meal and oil futures a bit higher. That pattern c...
Market Commentary
The soy complex picked up speed in downward momentum today, and wheat contracts also had sizable selloffs. The decline in corn slowed, however, presumably...
Trade Promotion
The eventual growth and dominance of domestic producers within nations is generally the reason that governments are eventually incentivized to build up pro...
Oilseed Highlights
In January, the U.S. EPA approved the importation of Argentine soy-based biodiesel under a streamlined procedure, and now Argentina's shipping agency Nabsa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Control of Production, Consumption; WOTUS; COOL
With nearly a billion people, many knowing hunger firsthand, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked a new economic think tank called Niti Aayog to p...
COOL Repeal
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill last night to repeal the country-of-origin labeling (COOL) requirements for beef, pork and poultry. The nex...
GMO Opt-Out Trouble; TPA Vote; Precaution Fix
There has been plenty of analysis detailing how neither Washington nor Brussels has a monopoly on the imposition of precaution in product risk assessments...
Market Commentary
USDA did not anticipate any change in the average corn farm price because of a minor adjustment in this season's ending stocks, detailed in the June...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that 29.065 MMT of grain were exported as of 3 June 2015 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, a 17.7 percent...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Trade Opponent Thinking; Leadership; Bleach
G7 leaders meeting in Germany this week boldly pledged to end hunger for 500 million people by 2030. Given the fact that the number of malnourished has bee...
Busy Day For Ag Issues: CFTC, MPR, Grain Standards
Several ag-related bills have been brought to the House floor under a suspension of the rules, which is a parliamentary procedure to expedite the considera...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
There have been comments in Egypt that lower-priced, imported wheat is being sold to the government as domestic stock because of its high purchase price. G...
Market Commentary
Indecision was the uniform message conveyed today by the charts of corn, wheat and soy complex futures contracts. The wheat market is also a promising bull...
Oilseed Highlights
A combination of declining global prices for soybeans and soymeal together with China's corn price supports has resulted in soymeal and corn now trading in...
El Nino’s Influence and 2015/16 Grain Prices
The current El Nino will affect more than just U.S. grain and oilseed production, and those other developments can influence world market perspectives, whi...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU has now allocated 777,000 MT of the available 950,000 MT duty-free import licenses for Ukrainian wheat. Once the duty-free quota has been completed,...
USDA Report Preview
USDA will revise winter wheat yields and, perhaps, harvested acres.Some downward adjustments in the world wheat crop are also possible with a great deal of...
Cynicism; Precaution; Fantasy Agriculture
As happens often, government may have the best of intentions but uses a tin ear when gauging public interest and action. Farmer Eat Farmer World As happen...
China In-Country Analysis
The imported corn reserve auction sales are currently expected to reach only 10 MMT through September. Because of the large national corn inventory, this w...
Market Commentary
The soybean market had another fairly volatile session today. There is still some concern about soybean planting progress because of the wet weather across...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
House Ag Committee Looks at Global Farm Subsidies
The scope of agricultural subsidies is large and comes in many forms. According to the OECD, the estimated support to farmers was about $492 billion global...
Much Ado – CFTC; Grexit versus Brexit; Ag-Gag Gag
The Greeks appear to have lost any semblance of sympathy from key European countries negotiating its rescue out of bankruptcy. Meanwhile, Swedish business...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Despite shuttle rail freight values that are now $200-400 per car UNDER tariff through September, there is no demand. Farmers are unhappy with both old cro...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The market yard corn price in Bihar has been declining after the recent harvest there. Demand has also been low from the poultry sector as a result of the...
Ag Review: Agriculture's Bear Market
Unsustainable Bears At least seven factors in the modern era prevent agriculture from falling to the historic construct of a long-term bear market followin...
Market Commentary
Markets surged to big gains in corn, wheat and soybeans in the first two hours of today's trade but couldn't hold above technical resistance, and the selli...
Oilseed Highlights
Following China's approval of the Syngenta corn event last December, U.S. DDGS imports to that country have resumed steadily. However, some in the trade fe...
Pork Producers and Meat Institute React to White House Statement
The head of the NPCC expressed disappointment with a recent administration statement regarding federal and White House procurement of hormone- and antibiot...
Strange Views on Trade
In the past, the goal of increasing trade, especially agricultural trade, enjoyed nearly unanimous bipartisan support. Thus, the current debate raging over...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
It is hard to put a finger on what sponsored the stronger grain and soy markets. The rally was not widespread across other commodity markets. Last week's e...
ExIm versus MAP; Natural Booze
The Export Import Bank of the U.S. (ExIm) is set to expire at the end of the month, which has spawned a brawl between Boeing and U.S.-based airlines over t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukroliyaprom, the Ukrainian oil industry association, has forecast the country's MY 2015/16 oilseed harvest at 17.195 MMT, a 6.3 percent increase compared...
Market Commentary
The U.S. dollar's up-and-down indecisiveness was mirrored by grain and soy futures as well as other commodity markets. All of the grain and soy complex con...
Trade Offensive; Climate Democracy; Poor Ag
Most of the public discussion about TPA and pending trade negotiations has focused on negative issues. However, the USTR is trying to create a more balance...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
An important point to consider is that the future of Argentine wheat production will be influenced by the ability of soybean and corn exports to put some r...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
U.S. grain and soy futures markets, particularly Chicago wheat futures, are as sensitive to changing U.S. dollar values as other commodity markets and more...
Oilseed Highlights
The government of Brazil today proposed raising the agriculture sector budget by 20 percent. Considering that it is cutting expenditures elsewhere, this wa...
New Feed Rule Part of White House Summit on Antibiotics
Today's White House Forum on Antibiotic Stewardship included the president signing a memorandum directing federal departments and agencies to create a five...
More Complete Analysis
A news report cites a survey of 4,200 U.S. consumers by a group called CivicScience that found far more concern about preservatives and chemicals in food t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The barter arrangements between Russia and Iran are said to have been finalized to some degree as it is reported that the latter will export poultry meat i...
A “What If” Scenario for U.S. Corn
Even though USDA has estimated that 2015/16 ending corn stocks will be lower than what is predicted for 2014/15, not much imagination is required to envisi...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Russia announced a new wheat export tax that begins 1 July, which is related to the USD/ruble exchange rate and is intended to help the government with a s...
Weather Pushes Wheat and Canola
While weather made a return visit to the wheat market this morning, very preliminary estimates indicate that another weekend frost/freeze across southern M...
TPA – and the Ayes Have It
The effort by organized labor against TPA is unprecedented, and the inclination is to bet against the bill passing except that it has such horrible implica...
Blender Pump Brouhaha
As U.S. EPA issued its proposed Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) last Friday, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack also rel...
Market Commentary
Corn couldn't follow wheat higher or soybeans lower today and traded near unchanged until a last minute rally pushed the market 1-2 cents higher, which mig...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
The combined effects of sluggish demand from downstream users and the large surplus of corn forced Chinese processors to take significant price hits last w...
U.S. EPA Announces Biofuel Targets for 2014, 2015 and 2016
Today's announcement met the EPA's committment under its proposed consent decree, which was intended to settle the lawsuit filed by two major petroleum tra...
TPA Schedule
The House Republican leadership indicated that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) could be brought to the floor for consideration in June, but there was not a...
What More Could A Buyer Want?
With low ocean freight rates, growing demand and strong supplies (among other factors), it would be difficult to find better market conditions than current...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The EPA data released today was just as bearish as market participants were expecting for corn and more bullish than expected for soyoil. General Comments...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Heat wave conditions are prevailing across India, strongly impacting poultry farmers as well as dairy operations. There are also implications for crops wit...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina's government yesterday raised the export tax on biodiesel by 164 percent, applicable to exports made in April. The head of the Argentine Biofuels...
Pseudoscience
While the U.S. agencies responsible have worked well enough to make foods in the country consistently the safest in the world, there are food critics who d...
Market Commentary
Soybean and soymeal prices had been buoyed recently by the Argentine strike situation that had shut down crush plants and snarled export loadings. Today's...
Dumbing Down; Best Tweets
The Nebraska legislature is receiving a great deal of attention this week for ending capital punishment in the state, but it also decided against passing a...
Antibiotic Use Still a Hot Topic
The Oregon State Senate is considering a bill that would ban routine use of antibiotics but allow for their usage to treat sick cattle, hogs and birds. Mea...
Antibiotic Use Still a Hot Topic
The Oregon State Senate is considering a bill that would ban routine use of antibiotics but allow for their usage to treat sick cattle, hogs and birds.Mean...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
With domestic usage accounting for just a small percentage of its annual sunflower meal production, Ukraine may soon have a new market if it meets the expo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina's financial instability has led to inflation, which is generating labor disputes that in turn are having a serious impact on the entire supply ch...
Market Commentary
Although grain and soy futures prices are very low, in some cases at or near multi-month or multi-year lows, the technical profile across the entire market...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
WOTUS; Farm Washing; Africa
The regulated view the final Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule with at least suspicion, and the National Farmers Union, which supported the earlier draf...
COOL Repeal Unlikely to Pass Senate
While the repeal of COOL is expected to pass the House handily, the Senate scenario is not so bullish for the statute's opponents as there is still a stron...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Egyptian government reported that it has purchased a record volume of local wheat that is said to be well above its target at a price much higher...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Exploitation; Helplessness
U.S. and Japanese trade negotiators reportedly met three times during Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks in Guam on the issue of access for American ric...
Oilseed Highlights
The union representing workers at Argentine oilseed processing plants in Rosario plans to continue its current strike that has shut down soybean processing...
Demand is the Thing
Prospects for demand should not be ignored. When it comes to supply/demand analyses for grains and soybeans, it is the yardstick by which we judge the adeq...
Market Commentary
The surging U.S. dollar steamrolled over just about everything else that might have affected grain and soy futures prices today and put the blocks to nearl...
Silly; Hypocritical; Stupid; Chauvinistic
The U.S. wheat industry wrote a letter this week to Canadian officials that turned that government's successful arguments against America's country-of-orig...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is presently the world's top milk producer at 140 MMT, but its production efficiency is one of the lowest. With a goal of doubling output by 2027 to...
Market Commentary
Corn lost ground with losses in wheat and soybeans. Some analysts expect the first weekly corn crop ratings of this season to reach record highs. We doubt...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Perfect
World weather has been very cooperative over the past two years, resulting in record world crop production, increasing supplies and lower prices. We starte...
Crop Insurance Program’s Conservation Compliance Due in Two Weeks
Conservation compliance was a controversial provision in the 2014 Farm Bill and was originally proposed to cover only program crops. When specialty crops w...
Market Commentary
A number of factors prompted funds to cover more of their short wheat position. That encouraged some buying in corn as well, which was further suppor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
COOL: Reform or Repeal
Yesterday the House Agriculture Committee approved a bill to repeal COOL, which will now move to the House floor where it is expected to pass. However, the...
Opponents Rolled; Confused and Frightening
While the U.S. Senate has capped debate on the TPA legislation, there is still negotiation over the amendments that will be allowed to be offered. How...
Global Food Security
Food security and how to achieve it is a complex issue that has been debated throughout recorded history. The question now being discussed is how to provid...
Oilseed Highlights
Over the last few years, the canola sector in the provinces of the Canadian Prairies has been beset with excess rainfall that has interfered with spring pl...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading activity was active for soybeans but rather light for the grains. Drifting is a good word to describe Wednesday's day session, and that i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The South American soybean market is seeing reduced Chinese demand for July. One reason is that a sharp drop in the Dalian futures this week eroded crush m...
Curious Votes on Trade; Reading Food Data
Over the past 13 years, relatively few Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives have voted in favor of international trade, while Republicans have av...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While Russia's wheat exports plummeted from 1 February-13 May 2015 compared with the same period in 2014, its MInistry of Agriculture announced that a new...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA economists have warned that this year's presidential election in Argentina could trigger a sharp decline in soybean prices if it results in that count...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures opened the overnight session with prices mixed before they turned lower. Fund short covering in wheat abated, and markets were pressu...
U.S. Wheat’s Downhill Slope
The ability of EU and/or Black Sea origins to price the value of wheat in world trade makes U.S. prices much less relevant to global wheat markets than the...
House Ag Committee to Take Up COOL Repeal
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-Texas) today introduced a bill to effectively repeal country-of-origin labeling (COOL) requirements...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Saudi Arabia's wheat imports are projected to rise by about 10 percent in 2015/16 as local production is decreasing and will be phased out by 2016. I...
Ongoing TPA Battle
The success or failure of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) in the U.S. Congress becomes more nuanced as senators try and add amendments that may or may not...
China In-Country Analysis
Vice Agriculture Minister Zhang Zhaolin has indicated that pollution in agriculture is becoming a serious issue, and he is not optimistic about China's env...
Market Commentary
Weather across the U.S. and Canada provided most of the impetus for today's strong rally in wheat. Corn tried to follow wheat higher, while soybeans had a...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Although the Russian government has officially announced that the export tax is effectively lifted, the new crop (July/August) prices for Russian wheat are...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Media Now Discussing Poor Ag Outlook
After nearly a decade of generally excellent crops coupled with high prices that brought the best economic times in history to U.S. agriculture, the immedi...
EPA Browning; Miscellany; Different
Congressional critics have complained that rather than being captive of corporate interests, the U.S. EPA is instead under the control of green nongovernme...
Restaurant Sales Surpass Grocery Sales
The monthly data shows that there has been a dramatic shift toward restaurant spending in the last 10 months, and there are two major contributing factors...
Market Commentary
Those traders who rely primarily on charts for decision-making generally realize that week-ending prices can influence recommendations via key indicators...
Global Oil Production Growing
While bearish prices had an impact on U.S. oil, OPEC was not affected and, in fact, may have been spurred onward. Other surprises in the bear market were f...
Trade Debate; Manipulation; Food Security; View
Former DPJ Minister for Agriculture Masahiko Yamada is suing the Japanese government over its Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations, arguing it thre...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Not Much Bearish News Left
Funds are still short a record amount of wheat futures. Without much other bad news left to throw at the wheat market, a few positive stories have apparent...
Market Commentary
Those traders who rely primarily on charts for decision-making generally realize that week-ending prices can influence recommendations via key indicators...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
A growing population, the affordability of vegetable oil and its increased usage in Indian households have all contributed to rising oil demand. Domestic s...
Market Commentary
Today's markets were all about wheat, and the corn market was towed higher by its mega-rally. However, the strength of the grains did not transfer very wel...
Hucksters; Ruses; Bipartisanship
Recognizing that the National Organic Standards Board (NOAB) has become dominated by marketing decisions, the National Farmers Union has made a request to...
COOL Decision by Monday
The WTO has set a deadline of 18 May for its final decision on the U.S. appeal regarding country-of-origin labeling (COOL). If the appeal is rejected, the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Parsing Supply and Demand
It is often said that supply/demand analysis for grains and oilseeds is far more art than science. Of course, the farther into the future the forecasts of...
Oilseed Highlights
The U.S. has long been the world's largest soybean-producing country, but South America now appears to have supplanted it.as the global residual supplier...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Following yesterday's WASDE release, optimistic viewpoints allowed grain and soy markets to make a modest recovery today. Soybean and corn prices were up,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans would seem poised for an imminent selloff, but Argentina's farmers are being motivated to retain their large harvest by the futures market there t...
Organic Speech; Fast Track and Jobs
The U.S. organic foods industry formally petitioned USDA this week to initiate a research and promotion program for organic, but its goals may be different...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
With sufficient stocks available and a strengthening national currency, Ukraine's feed grain prices have decreased both domestically as well as on a few ex...
TPA Vote Meaning; Transatlantic Differences
It was all politics around the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) bill on Capitol Hill today as a cloture vote to end debate on it fell short, bringing differ...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
With domestic food price inflation approaching close to 10 percent, Egypt is using $6 billion received from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE to make more&n...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA's May 2015 supply and distribution report was released today, which includes the first estimates for MY 2015/16. Many changes are likely over the next...
Market Commentary
Today's markets were all about the May WASDE released today by USDA. Corn futures traded both sides in about an 8-cent range before closing with just fract...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The May 2015 WASDE
We are not sure that each year's May issue is always the most important of the springtime WASDE reports. However, they are still always very interesting an...
Reigning in the Fed
While monetary policy and the Federal Reserve itself are on the radar screen of policy makers who follow financial issues, the entire subject is still some...
China In-Country Analysis
China's state corn purchase program for temporary reserves was estimated at around 83.4 MMT as of 30 April, a significant change from last year. Meanwhile,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Miscellaneous Segments of Note
As the EU is expanding its prohibitive environment for GMOs by seeking to allow individual member states to decline their otherwise safe use and GMO labeli...
USDA 2015/16 Estimates Start Tomorrow
About the only thing certain about tomorrow's numbers is that we believe USDA will use the 31 March planting intentions numbers for acres, while the yield...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU allocated 273,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 28 MMT. Carryout stocks wil be significantly different this year, whi...
Market Commentary
Several factors combined to pressure corn again today. Wheat lumbered along in step with the corn market, while its weekly export inspections were in line...
Crude Oil Exports and the Future of the U.S. Energy Sector
With the debate over lifting the ban on the export of crude oil becoming more pertinent, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) commissioned a st...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Although GOI provided an incentive to ethanol manufacturers and an exemption from the 12.36 percent excise duty, the availability of cost-effective molasse...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets didn't produce much change overnight. Funds are still holding massive (record) short positions in wheat, and they were small buyers to end this wee...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The Kansas crop tour wrapped last night with participants seemingly surprised and disappointed by the results. The trouble today is that few people actuall...
Biofuels Roundup
With gasoline prices quite high in Brazil as a result of government actions, ethanol has become more attractive to motorists there in a country where the a...
Lag Effect in Biofuel Policy
As usual, policymakers and markets are out of sync with the latest case being renewable fuel mandates and bearish grain markets.As usual, policymakers and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Some Ideas Never Die
Several current factors may make a merger of the SEC and CFTC seem conceptually more appealing that it used to be. However, there are still great differenc...
Obama Allowing Mandatory GMO Labels
While USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack charged this week that the EU threatens global food security with its proposed opt-out policy regarding GM crop imports, t...
Oilseed Highlights
Indonesia has taken action to support further development of the biodiesel sector with the goal of expanding domestic production and consumption of biodies...
Market Commentary
Grains and the soy complex prices were mixed, but not much changed overnight. They weakened, though, during the day session as the U.S. dollar strengthened...
Red Meat Exports
According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), the muscle cut ratio of March pork exports was the largest percentage since July 2013, while that for...
Ag Review: Water Around The Globe
Water Solution at Hand There are resource constraints on earth, but water is not one of them. Likely Future Conflicts over Water Safe water for human consu...
Market Commentary
The sharp correction of the U.S. dollar against the value of other major currencies accelerated today. Meanwhile, the corn market was torn between the stro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The volume of Ukrainian vegetable and animal product exports to the EU during January-March 2015 showed a significant change. Vegetable product exports wer...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The common expectation at the recent Wheat Congress in Argentina is that market inefficiencies will improve once there is a new government, but producers'...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Contrasts; No Worries
The U.S., Australia and New Zealand have been pushing Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) partners to adopt a common position on the geographic indicators (GIs...
Market Commentary
The soy complex was today's market leader, and soyoil futures set the pace. The catalyst has been a major move in the world edible oil market by China. Gen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
COOL: High Costs, Low Return
The 2014 Farm Bill required that USDA's Office of Chief Economist (OCE) provide Congress with an economic analysis of the impact of mandatory country-of-or...
The Merry Month of May
Just how merry the month of May turns out to be for producers and consumers of grains, soybeans and their products depends to some degree on the prices of...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The difficulties in Syria have caused a change in regional shipping patterns as grain cargoes, which in the past would have enterd Syria's ports for discha...
Oilseed Highlights
A union representing workers at 20 percent of Argentina's soybean processors went on strike today demanding higher wages. A major union representing truck...
Politics of Trade
The politics around congressional consideration of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) and, subsequently, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is becoming quite...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
While buying interest in Russia's wheat is below offer prices, there is talk in the market that the government there could lift the export tax as early as...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Wet Blanket; More Lunacy; Correctives
The U.S. House appears ready to move on legislation to correct a couple of unhelpful issues in the agriculture market. One bill would pre-empt state labeli...
Market Commentary
The market was expecting today's crop progress numbers to show that 50 percent of the U.S. corn acreage has been planted, but the total was higher. Meanwhi...
China In-Country Analysis
With the planting margin spread between corn and soybeans steadily widening, Chinese farmers have been less willing to dedicate land to the latter crop. A...
The Market Struggles for News
The market's problem continues to be adequate supplies of wheat and feed grains around the world and few worthy weather issues to talk about as the spring...
House Biofuels Caucus Recruiting Members
Leadership of the bipartisan caucus has sent a letter to other members of Congress asking that they join the group to support renewable energy production t...
Kansas Wheat Tour Next Week
With only one potentially significant crop production problem facing the U.S. earlier this spring, next week's Kansas crop tour might provide some interest...
Newspaper Hypocrisy; WOTUS Wrong
The Washington Post criticized the Chipotle restaurant chain yesterday for pandering to the unfounded fears of consumers seeking to avoid GMOs, so why are...
Congress Proposes Block of WOTUS Rule
While the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has passed a bill that would block implementation of the WOTUS rule, a bipartisan group of sena...
Market Commentary
Wheat tried to trade higher off and on today, and Chicago July did show gains of 5-6 cents at one point. Meanwhile, the soybean market followed yesterday's...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
In spite of the contentious issues of farmer suicides, their inability to receive full price for their production and the fact that 60 percent of India's p...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Many in the market see today's soybean prices as low versus the highs of the last three years. Perhaps many of the new players in futures markets do not re...
Size and Efficiency
The expansion in container ship size, capacity and efficiency is a reflection of free trade and its benefits. However, growth in the size of these vessels...
Legislative Reversal; Economic Blah
The ink was barely dry on a positive spin for Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) surrounding this week's visit to Washington by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō...
Market Commentary
Confidence that the Argentine labor situation will quickly be resolved along with weakening world grain prices seemed to trump a surprisingly friendly week...
More Avian Influenza: Congress Urges Emergency Spending
The leadership of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees is urging USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack to transfer funds from the Commodity Credit Corporation...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Japan Darts Past Europe; Tricking the Old
It is no surprise why the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is about to come to fruition and TTIP looks like mostly many years of meetings and a modest outco...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The strengthening of the real is encouraging Brazilian soybean producers to market slowly. Meanwhile, Chinese buyers seem primarily interested in purchasin...
Market Commentary
Soybean prices were supported by the weaker U.S. dollar and the potential for labor problems in Argentina as farmers, processors and exporters try to handl...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While Russia's grain exports have substanially increased overall in the current marketing year, there have been other contrary changes in the volume of whe...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
It is being reported in London that the major commodity houses are lining up to do business in Iran.This could be a very good opportunity to supply g...
Oilseed Highlights
If the EU proposal to allow member states to individually opt out of allowing the importation and consumption of biotech crops is adopted, there could be s...
Budget Conference Report Likely This Week
Both the House and Senate budgets look to boost defense spending, while one of the other outcomes from the budget conference negotiations is related to whe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The day session saw wheat futures swinging higher after setting new lows, and soybeans running up 15-16 cents before retreating late to close with only mod...
Successful Regular Order; GMO Stunts
While the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee has been one of the most politically contentious with the two parties at wide odds on environmental...
A Few Idle Thoughts
We are about to enter that annual transition period between the old crop cycle and the new one. Supply/demand tensions have provided a considerable degree...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
With rising prospects for quite a good wheat crop, Russia's export tax should logically be lifted 1 July at the latest. However, that is still uncertain du...
Dust to Dust: The CWB Goes Away Again
Bunge Canada's recent purchase of the Canadian Wheat Board concludes the second chapter in its demise since the Canadian government attempted to turn...
Ownership in the Digital Age Issue Hits Agriculture
One of the sleeper issues in the U.S. and global economy moving forward is privacy and proprietorship of information. This concern has arisen in various fo...
Market Commentary
The soybean market continues to have legs of its own. Meanwhile, funds are short in excess of 500 million bushels of wheat futures, and they added to that...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Agriculture unveiled the country's 2015-2024 outlook last week with projections and analysis on supply, demand, exports and imports for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Losing Scale; Missing; Notables
The opportunity that has been missed in the current trade debate by Republicans and Democrats alike is the reform and boosting of worker retraining. Contra...
Avian Influenza Situation Update by the Numbers
The strains, which are multiple, mutate readily and are named after the two protein groups in the virus. The rate of outbreak has increased over the past w...
Show Me the Weather
Today's extended weather maps and the pattern that is developing should impact talk of planting delays across the Corn Belt.Today's extended weather maps f...
TTIP Pretense; GMO Humor; Sustainability
Part of this week's ninth round of TTIP negotiations, yesterday's public session in New York, had American activist groups acting like their transatlantic...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The recent weather patterns in India have affected the rabi corn harvest and the wheat crop. As a result, there are far-reaching implications domestically...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Managed money remains heavily short wheat, corn and soybeans. Meanwhile, the focus of today's wheat markets was more on planting progress in the week...
Market Commentary
Weekly export sales for corn and wheat were slightly better than expected, and this helped trigger something of an early rally for futures prices during da...
Avian Influenza Update: Top 10 Poultry Export Markets Impose Bans
The latest development in the H5N2 strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the U.S. has been its discovery in a 3.8 million egg laye...
Oilseed Highlights
Statistics Canada today released the outcome of a planting intentions survey conducted 18-31 March that showed a surprising result regarding Canadian farme...
Souljah Opportunity; Labor Dissed; Unsweetening
During a markup session before the Senate Finance Committee last night, Senate Democrats chose to help President Obama on trade and only pay lip service to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tough Times for Index Funds
After being blamed in the past for artificially pushing grain prices to very high levels, index funds have pretty much slipped away from public attention t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Both Russia and Ukraine have reported domestic grain stock volumes that have notably changed from a year ago. Meanwhile, the board chairman of Cherkizovo G...
Market Commentary
Corn futures prices traded in less than a 5-cent range before closing fractionally lower. Funds and other noncommercials holding long positions in May corn...
Big Test for TPA; Uniquely Ag
The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in Horne v. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the justices learned once again that agriculture is treated unique...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While the Argentine government has not released any additional wheat export licenses, it did make an announcement in this election year regarding far...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt has faced a much stronger outbreak of avian flu this year in small village flocks, which experts attribute to a specific factor. While none have been...
Market Commentary
It has been a slow Tuesday for grain and soy futures markets with corn and soy prices unable to hang on to yesterday's gains. Much of the market's chatter...
Oilseed Highlights
China's Ministry of Agriculture published a report today that predicts the country's annual soybean imports will rise by 15.8 percent between now and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Expressing Market Opinions
Nearly all of us who watch and trade in commodity futures markets eventually develop an opinion about the direction prices will take. These are called futu...
Transatlantic Focus; Dems on Trade
While Europeans are in the U.S. pushing hard for acceptance of geographic indicators (GIs) as part of the TTIP negotiations, one potential reason why the U...
Cuba Ag Trade: Potential and Politics
One of the somewhat surprising issues to gain traction this year in Congress has been the status of Cuba trade and diplomatic relations.One of the somewhat...
Market Commentary
Short covering continued across the soybean futures today. Most analysts are bearish, based on the forecasts for record world ending supplies. The problem...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Even though the new crop (July/August) 12.5 percent protein Russian/Ukrainian wheat is offered at $195/MT FOB, a price that is historically attractive at b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
House Votes to Repeal Estate Tax
Farm groups are urging the Senate to also address an estate tax repeal, and Senator John Thune (R-South Dakota) has introduced a companion bill to the Hous...
Trade Rhetoric; Backward Food
Now that there is a bill, the two major congressional committees with jurisdiction over trade plan hearings in the next two days on Trade Promotion Authori...
Biodiesel Challenge; Available Land Implications
The Minnesota Trucking Association and others filed a lawsuit in U.S. District court last Friday that alleges that state's mandate to use a 10 percent biod...
China In-Country Analysis
A Chinese trading company was found last week to have illegally imported more than 6,000 MT of frozen meat worth about 345 million yuan ($55.6 million). Th...
Alternative Diesel Tax Credit
On 15 April, the U.S. Senate Finance Committee gathered a number of recommendations for comprehensive tax reform that could potentially be considered this...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Avian flu has again surfaced in India as it erupted in the heart of the poultry belt in Telangana, which supplies eggs to eastern areas of the countr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The State of Wheat
Even though it didn't seem like there was much of any weather premium in the market before this week's rainfall, the speculative trade evidently felt there...
Market Commentary
Markets did absolutely nothing overnight and started that way this morning. Prices were little changed in corn, wheat and soybeans until just after 10:30 a...
Misdirected Aid; Nonreciprocals; Status Quo
The Chicago Council on Global Affairs has issued a report ("Healthy Food for a Healthy World") calling on U.S. policy makers to save the world from starvat...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentine farm organizations yesterday asked soy exporters to stop inspecting cargoes for bootleg biotech soybean events. The exporting firms have been doi...
Market Commentary
Corn closes were mixed, and soybean prices were higher. The state of play in today's market can be described by noting that not one soybean or corn contrac...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
European Dairy without Quotas
A more than 30-year old system of national quotas for milk production in Europe ended last month and is expected to change the dairy market across the glob...
Attacks on Common Sense
There have been many occasions when reason and common sense have been swept aside by emotion, demagoguery and political expediency. Two current examples wi...
TPA Dissected; Trade Doublespeak; Organic Trash Talk
A bipartisan, bicameral bill authorizing Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), "The Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015," w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
There were quite a number of sometimes contradictory factors for grain and soy market traders to chew on today, including the National Oilseed Processors A...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As Russia reports a substantial increase in grain exports thus far in MY 2014/15 compared to a year ago, Rusagrotrans has downwardly revised its forecast f...
Burning Witches Redux
American politicians are no more averse to wrongheaded public pressure than their European counterparts – witness the current opposition to Trade Promotion...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The anticipation of Argentina's government distributing additional export licenses for corn and wheat is presently having little to no effect on spot corn...
When Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates?
The overwhelming consensus is the Fed will raise interest rates, but the open question regards when. Following the Federal Reserve meeting in March, there...
Corn Questions
Some questions still remain to be answered concerning the current 2014/15 corn situation. One of those pertains to the size of Brazil's crop, and another r...
Oilseed Highlights
There are now reports the EU will soon propose options to deal with biotech crops. One under consideration would allow EU member countries to decide indivi...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices never go in the same direction all of the time. This is the truism that supports the phenomenon known as Turnaround Tuesday –...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Pakistani customs officials have confiscated shipments from Ukraine, Russia and Moldova, claiming there are quality issues. The latest seizure was reported...
Abe versus Xi; TPA Hardball; Trans
The EU's precautionary principle has kept Brussels well ahead of Washington in the issuance of restrictions against potentially frightening things. Thus, i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
There was the smell of rain in the air across the western reaches of the U.S. hard red winter wheat region, and that was enough to bring another major roun...
USDA to Expand Supplemental Coverage Option
Coverage under SCO is available in 2015 for a few select crops in a few designated counties. Specific requirements must also be met, but there will be chan...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Not So Simple Solutions
McKinsey & Company ranks high amongst major management consulting companies, but even it appears to struggle with the complexity of the agrifood system...
U.S. Soybean Exports Almost Finished
What happened to the "demand destruction" that several years of very high prices were supposed to have wrought on the markets?Today's weekly export inspect...
China In-Country Analysis
While the drop in China's live pig and sow inventories clearly has propped up prices, the continued upward trend might actually decelerate due to downstrea...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet overnight with corn, soybeans and wheat trading both sides in light volume. Wheat popped back today with some decent gains, while soybea...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
With its oil meals priced high, India has seen the level of exports impacted significantly, and the poultry sector there could benefit by importing supplie...
The California Drought and Agriculture
California is in a major drought situation and now under emergency restrictions declared by Governor Gerry Brown. While these exempt agriculture, which has...
RFS; Jurisdiction; Economy
As officials currently in charge of the EU are increasingly looking for ways to devolve power to the member states, including over GMOs, Washington is cons...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The last major USDA reports are behind us until the 30 June acreage and quarterly stocks updates. We're back to weather first and demand second, but there...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures headed lower overnight with soybeans leading the way, and prices stayed lower this morning ahead of the release of USDA's April WASDE...
Oilseed Highlights
Thailand's energy minister announced today that the government plans to change the current biodiesel blending requirement on 15 April in an effort to...
Cases of Avian Influenza Discovered in Minnesota and Canada
All of the cases have been detected in the past month with five of those found since last week. The Minnesota farms are in a flyway for migratory birds, pu...
The April WASDE
USDA's April estimates of ending 2014/15 stocks, both for the U.S. and the world, probably command the greatest interest for grain traders and analysts.Eac...
Renationalization; Biofuel; Small and Unsafe
The pushback from EU member states to the detailed meddling by Brussels into everyday European life has its politicians scrambling to give capitals more au...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The volume of Ukraine's rapeseed oil and meal exports has notably changed for the months July 2014-February 2015 against the same period a year ago as have...
Purity; Rapprochement; Spades
Few consumers are aware that organic food in the U.S. is made with synthetics and chemicals as that industry does not support labeling. However, the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine soybean quality is a concern this season as the first deliveries to the ports showed protein below 32.5 percent. This is a potentially seri...
Market Commentary
Amid the swinging U.S. dollar and crude oil, grain and soy prices were a sea of calm. Once again, prices traded a bit higher overnight, although it was not...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Math; Prejudice; Pivot
According to some analysts, the logical "pivot to Asia" made by the Obama administration is in trouble without the TPP. Math and Trade U.S. Representative...
Market Commentary
It is a story that has repeated with some frequency recently. Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex produces a price rally, but the rally effort...
Oilseed Highlights
In an effort to offset a huge decline in soymeal exports, India may be rebating a larger percent of the FOB export value to exporters. India Increases Soym...
The April WASDE and Beyond
The main question regarding U.S. corn and soybeans for the balance of the 2014/15 crop year is whether demand will be enough to achieve the levels foreseen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Review: Screwy Currencies
Currency Valuation and Trade The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the strong U.S. dollar weigh on commodity trading decisions. The TPP and a Pr...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Syria and Italy are reportedly discussing a trade involving 100,000 MT of Syrian durum wheat for 100,000 MT of soft milling wheat. This type of countertrad...
More on WOTUS Rule
While the U.S. EPA and Army Corps of Engineers claim that jurisdictional water bodies are easily defined, a number of issues remain.Yesterday we wrote abou...
China In-Country Analysis
Several factors are putting upward pressure on China's average pork prices. President Xi's decree that party officials implement an eight-point guide for o...
U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Shrinking
Two elements of our 20 March analysis of the 2015 U.S. wheat outlook, which pegged hard red winter wheat production at 810 million bushels and total wheat...
WOTUS Rule to Go to OMB
As proposed, the "Water of the United States" (WOTUS) rule would dramatically expand the amount of wet areas that would become federally controlled. Given...
Burning Witches; No Chinese Surprise
The Agricultural Market Information Service (AMIS), set up as political cover for political leaders who failed to take notice of an impending food price sp...
Market Commentary
It was another day that found it tough to explain why we had the major shifts in nearly every market. After opening slightly higher following the long East...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Russian government is considering a possible extension of the wheat export tax beyond 30 June. If the tax is maintained through the 2015/16 campaign, i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Antibiotics Back in the Crosshairs
USDA will focus on three specific areas in conjunction with the Obama administration's new National Action Plan for Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Iran; GMO Prejudice; Fantasies (Local and Export)
The EU's already approved policy to allow member states to decide individually whether GM crops could be grown on their territory was viewed as a net posit...
Oilseed Highlights
The Brazilian government's effort to re-evaluate 14 pesticides for possible bans has been ongoing for seven years and stymied by lawsuits as well as...
There is a New Sheriff in Town
Exercising its new role under Dodd-Frank, the CFTC filed a civil lawsuit yesterday (1 April) in federal court charging Kraft Foods Group LLC and its affili...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets saw a dual between poor weekly export sales and growing weather concerns ahead of a three-day weekend. Corn futures prices did bounce...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The export market for Argentine wheat improved this past week with some buyers from Brazil and Chile. Unfortunately, there is somewhat of a logistical prob...
Funding Pipedreams
The Environmental Working Group (EWG) correctly asserts in its new analysis, "Feeding the World – Without GMOs," that it is "possible" to feed the growing...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The National Association of Exporters of Agricultural Products has requested that the Russian government cancel the wheat export duty midway through its ef...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
We see today's upturn of grain and soy futures prices as acknowledgement that yesterday's stocks and prospective plantings really did little to change the...
Market Commentary
The market's reputation for producing a volatile reaction to USDA March stocks and plantings report was well-maintained today. General Comments After a lon...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
While Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have signed a preliminary agreement regarding Nile water, the major water source for farming in Egypt and Sudan, it i...
USDA’s Acreage and Stocks Reports
Based on pre-report expectations, corn was supposed to be the market's bullish leader, while soybeans were to be further pressured by a large gain in plant...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's USDA Stocks Report found total U.S. soybean supplies on 1 March did not quite meet the average analyst estimate but showed an impressive change aga...
Trade Policy Fables
Public Citizen is reporting that the Seattle City Council voted unanimously in opposition to Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). These are the elected leaders...
Food Manufacturing Sector in the U.S. to Restructure?
The expected activity in the food sector is based on lowered commodity costs and increased economic growth in the U.S. Most financial analysts see an oppor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
There are offers of Bulgarian, Romanian, Ukrainian and Russian wheat for April/May shipment at $207-216/MT FOB without close buying interests. There are al...
Status of Farm Bill Implementation
At a subcommittee hearing held last week on the farm bill implementation, different agency administrators reported on the current status of program enrollm...
China In-Country Analysis
China's sorghum and barley imports continued to grow in February. The comparative price advantages of both with respect to domestic corn coupled with no qu...
Nudges; Judges; and Water
The Obama administration, under the lead of First Lady Michelle Obama, has made a laudable attempt at reducing obesity in the U.S. A new book now concludes...
Market Commentary
Soybeans benefited from the fund short covering in the wheat market. Weekly export inspections were also (again) better than expected, and there was some c...
The Big Show Starts Tomorrow – USDA Acreage & Stocks Reports
The corn and soybean acreage numbers (as always) have attracted the most attention and will be the initial focus of tomorrow's reports. There are a number...
Indecision
With the Tuesday release of USDA's planting intention numbers, the large disparities between the corn quarterly stocks numbers and the trade guesses over t...
TPP Stakes; New GHG Risk; Food versus Fuel
Princeton University Research Scholar Tim Searchinger might minimally be called a pain in the backside to the ethanol industry for past statements. He and...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Following the sudden rise in domestic corn prices, India's end users are considering imports. Although direct, duty-free corn importation is permitted, cer...
Senate Joins House In Passing Budget
The Republican congressional leadership is nearing one of its goals, passage of a joint budget resolution. With a statutory deadline of 15 April, the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.\...
Market Commentary
The soy complex is where the selling was centered today, while wheat tried to recapture some of yesterday's big losses ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, the...
Animal and Meat Inventories
Several factors indicate that USDA's quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, scheduled to be released tomorrow, will show a larger swine inventory. How much of a...
TPA Fight; Productivity
The fight over Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) on Capitol Hill is intensifying and becoming brutish. While both sides in the debate are claiming to have th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Renewable Fuel Standard
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was pushed by the Bush administration with wide bipartisan support in 2005 and 2007, but it demonstrates how risky and ev...
Oilseed Highlights
For the second week in a row, USDA's export inspections report indicated containers of soybeans for shipment to North Korea were inspected last week. Howev...
Market Commentary
The ongoing South American harvest and the possible increase in 2015 U.S. soybean acres in next week's report is a heavy load for the soybean market to car...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina is poised to harvest approximately 23 MMT of corn, and close to 12 MMT of that should be available for export, assuming the government is willing...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
It was reported that Russian wheat exports decreased 34 percent during 1 February-18 March (compared with the same period in 2014) after introduction of th...
Institutional; Blindness; Omission
While the House Agriculture Committee was receiving testimony 'mostly' advising government action to avoid retaliation for a WTO-illegal country-of-o...
Market Commentary
Today's relatively narrow futures trading ranges testify to the lack of fresh trading incentives as well as the market's cautious approach to next week's g...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
A tremendous amount of interest regarding investments in Egypt's agriculture was generated at a conference held there last week. Two key development agreem...
Commodities and the Canadian Election
The Canadian economy has been a winner during the commodities boom of recent years. With recent yearend figures now available, however, that appears to be...
Glyphosate; China Policy; Real Food
For foodies, some processed food with substitute ingredients can be bad and others can be good, depending on whether there is an agreeable social cause tha...
Speculating About U.S. Crop Acreage
Analytical speculation about the amounts of acreage that will be planted to specific crops began soon after the January reports, and there are numerous fac...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Other than outside factors that were largely ignored, grains and the soy complex had little to trade on today other than weather. Wheat reversed from the l...
Oilseed Highlights
While participants at this week's 9th Asia Grain Transportation Conference are generally in an upbeat mood, there have been several questions regarding the...
Market Commentary
Soybeans led today's push higher in the ag commodities with soybean futures gaining as much as 15-16 cents at one point. The buying was the result of anoth...
China In-Country Analysis
A number of Chinese crushers have reportedly chosen to suspend operations temporarily for several reasons. Meanwhile, the average crush margin for imported...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Although old crop wheat on the Black Sea market is now offered at competitive levels versus French and German origins, demand is very difficult to find. Me...
House Ag Committee to Hold Five Hearings This Week
This week's ambitious hearing lineup adheres to what Chairman Michael Conway (R-Texas) suggested would be the committee's agenda for the year: CFTC reform,...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There are several items that have been in the news recently and are worth thinking about before the planting season starts in earnest.This is the last full...
Hillary on Trade; Apples; CFTC
Given the outright hostility of labor unions and angst by liberals over the impact of free trade on the U.S. economy, Democratic presidential candidates ar...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
How Much Water Does Avoiding Beef Save?
Arguments and exaggerations regarding water use are the lifeblood of a number of issues facing livestock today from those in animal agriculture to producer...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet in overnight trade, but that changed radically when the U.S. dollar collapsed and crude oil surged sharply higher. This brought across-t...
U.S. Wheat Outlook
We won't know what hard red spring wheat and durum acres will total until the 31 March USDA report. Opinions are mixed today with seed dealers continuing t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Unseasonal precipitation across much of India is impacting many crops, particularly wheat, fruits and vegetables. In turn, that is expected to continue aff...
Politicized Science; Costly Legislation
Rather than change the underlying offending Cargo Preference requirement, the U.S. government is proposing to pay $90 million annually to American-flagged...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
In Defense of Free Trade
The current politics of free trade are so complex that the basic issues involved sometimes get lost.One definition of free trade is that it allows me to fr...
Broiler Exports Face Trifecta of Hurdles
Three main factors are impacting U.S. broiler exports, but chicken will also have to compete domestically with dropping pork prices. However, there are a f...
Market Commentary
The grain and soy rally completely stalled out during the day session as the U.S. dollar continued to climb back from yesterday's beating. Soybean futures...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Plain English; Cockfights; Phobic
Congressional approval of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is at risk and the Obama White House is pulling out all of the stops. None of this will change th...
Oilseed Highlights
U.S. cottonseed crushing is forecast to decline in 2014/15 to the lowest level in 15 years. There are several reasons for this drop, and the situation may...
Lower Demand; Self-Sufficiency; TPP Proxy
Major food exporters are counting on growth in middle class incomes in developing countries for increased future demand. However, a recent analysis suggest...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's grain exports via its sea ports had a slight gain last month against the results of February 2014. Turkey's imports of Ukrainian wheat, however,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Brazilian soybean basis is anticipated to soon decline, and that is a potential concern for Argentine soybean producers as their position is being stea...
Market Commentary
The Fed's apparent reluctance to raise interest rates caused a big slide in the U.S. dollar's value in late trade, although it still is near a 12-year high...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Both Ways; Not Us; Sort of
The European Commission and members of Parliament continue to debate how to handle the presence of "unauthorized" substances in organic food. It is very di...
Market Commentary
During overnight trade, corn futures prices were unchanged to slightly weaker in slow trade. During the day session, though, fund pressure and technical se...
Senate Budget Committee to Start Markup Tomorrow
Much of the Senate's budget, which will likely be released this evening or tomorrow morning before a 2:30 pm (EDT) markup, will be focused on Medicare, Med...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The volume of Saudi Arabia's wheat imports is notably shifting as its domestic production is affected by a change in land usage. Meanwhile, maize demand is...
Oilseed Highlights
The National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) yesterday announced an impressive February soybean crush volume, while the average soyoil yield was s...
Weather and Other Stuff
Weather and production agriculture are inseparable. In the past, the weather market season nominally lasted until about 15 December. With the emergence of...
China In-Country Analysis
Based on conversations with our market sources, there are actually two companies involved in the recently reported major soybean smuggling operation in Chi...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The current offer of new crop (August 2015) Russian/Ukrainian 12.5 percent protein wheat is approximately $80/MT lower than the 2014 new crop offer at the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Weather Market Economy
The concept of a weather market is a well-subscribed orthodoxy in agriculture and a factor in energy markets. First quarter gross domestic product (GDP) da...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged today but were mostly lower the last half of the session. The bearish news was that truckers in Brazil did n...
Lonely Days – Lonely Nights
It has been a challenging period for market analysts who must find something to write about when there really isn't much different happening. We tend to fo...
Bans and Influences
While 30 countries have imposed bans on the entry of U.S. poultry over the past month due to the outbreak of avian influenza in several states, many have c...
Market Commentary
The stronger U.S. dollar, talk that Ukraine was offering corn below U.S. prices and the overall selling mood in all commodities together eventually pushed...
Currency Implications; Pesticides Residues
The U.S. dollar continues its surge in relative value, causing concern not just amongst U.S. companies but apparently in Japan as well. Anti-Trade Currency...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
U.S. farmers must soon make their 2015 crop revenue insurance decision, and it is likely that they will take reduced coverage per acre in reaction to certa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Updated Look at Farm Bill Spending
The dropping prices and the attractiveness of the ARC program under a more bearish market outlook have caused the CBO to update its cost projections...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI's recently released Economic Survey 2014-15 strongly advocated cutting subsidies and using new technologies to address problems with the distribution s...
Market Commentary
About two hours after the day session opened, Chicago May wheat traded through its 20-day moving average at $5.05, and a volume of fund buy stop orders was...
Trash-Talking; Pre-TPA TPP
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has once again invoked producers of GM and non-GM crops to reach a compromise on coexistence. However, producers of GM crops hav...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina and Brazil, the two main competitors to the U.S. in the soybean sector, have seen their currencies fall in value to the U.S. dollar. If that tren...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
HPAI in Arkansas Turkey Flock
USDA's APHIS has confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic H5N2 avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial turkey flock in Arkansas, located within the Missi...
Risk Management
Identifying risks and their source would seem to be an obvious necessity for any management plan. However, businesses sometimes incur risks that they are n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
A Rusagrotrans official indicated the effective export duty for wheat will significantly influence the structure of Russia's March grain exports with barle...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading started out slowly and without price direction. However, a later surge of buy orders in wheat and corn sent prices solidly into the green...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
It seems that U.S. and Black Sea corn became more attractive to global buyers once Argentine prices increased into the mid-50s for the March-July period. T...