Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with pressure from macroeconomic markets increasing. In addition to sparking trade wars with nearly every major U.S. trading partner, U.S. Preside...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading under the new exchange rate regulations, so it took the markets a few days to adjust. Regarding the official exchange rate, it opened on Monday...
2025/2026 Trade Update
Almost none of the primary U.S. grain or oilseed offerings have made a solid start to 2025-26, as export sales for the upcoming marketing year are largely near multi-year lows. This is not yet a huge problem since the typical buying periods for the season’s supplies are mostly still in th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major ag market, with the notable exception of cattle futures. The buying was most notable in soybeans where, despite the trade war, funds flippe...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 483,500 MT were up 43 percent from the previous week and 11 percent f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers will plant around 84 million ha (Mha) which is up almost 1 Mha from last season. 20 Mha have already been planted with winter crops. Accordi...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan increased its domestic price for wheat flour by 2.8 percent. This is the selling price set monthly by the government for sales by local flour mills. According to officials, this will not affect the local price of bread whic...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong
The Market Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s massive reversal and rally in the same markets. The net result of this is that soy complex futures are largely little changed – especi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 339,100 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 16 per...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 March – 4 April 2025 Russian wheat, the only de-facto exportable commodity for the moment, is relatively stable but shows the first signs of appreciation. This is happening amid solid demand from exporters and melting stocks. As of 1 March, Russian wheat stocks s...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s grain production was down by 17 percent in 2024 and due to dry weather and security production does not look any better for 2025, all according to the latest FAO report on Syria. In 2024, wheat production was at 1.9...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Update Argentina Faces Harvest Delays and Changing Trade Dynamics Corn harvest progress in Argentina was slow last week, with only 1 percentage point gained due to early-week rainfall. As a result, the total harvested area has reached 20 percent. With improved weather in recent days...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Both the GBP and EUR are seen as safe-haven trades right now, which has led to appreciation in both currencies. That is making exports less attractive from the UK and Europe, which is not what the markets need as they are already facing strong competition from Russia and Ukr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 499,600 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from th...
Oilseed Highlights: “Liberation Day” Rattles Markets
The Market Prior to the Liberation Day tariffs that President Trump announced late Wednesday, oilseed markets were seeing noted strength due to renewed hopes for biodiesel demand. Earlier this week, news broke that members of the oil and renewable energy sectors met with the EPA to discus...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture once again announced revised figures for the 2024 crop including occupied territories of Ukraine. The total crop size showed 129.8 MMT - this is the number the Russian Statistics Agency recently reported. For re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region There is very little information on the Middle East and North Africa due to the end of Ramadan and the start of the EID holidays. Tomorrow, 2 April, is “import tariff day”. Import tariffs by the U.S. and reciprocal tar...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Continues to Face Weather Instability Argentina remains in a period of climate instability, with frequent heavy rains, strong winds, and occasional hail affecting some agricultural areas this week. Rainfall in the northern region – which had been suffering from low s...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.23/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $1 f...
Slow Soy Sales in Argentina Following Policy Changes
Argentine soybean farmers are selling their crop at the slowest pace in 10 years as producers bet on the likely effects of libertarian President Javier Milei’s actions on commodity markets, including a weakening of the peso and potential tax relief. The sales are a quarter below where the...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 14-20, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 100,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 428,700 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week, but...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1675/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
Oilseed Highlights: Soyoil, Rapeseed Rally on Demand Surge
The Market The big movement in oilseed markets this week is the rally in soyoil futures, which are up 4 percent from last week. The market has rallied due to its large discount against palm oil futures and recent gains in rapeseed prices that are supporting oilseed and vegoils broadly. U...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.01/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 March 2025 Russian farmers started planting and fertilizing winter crops which is rather early for this time of the year. Rostov Oblast for example has already planted 5 percent of the planned spring crops area. Moreover, this Oblast set a new record fo...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco’s rainfall has increased this year after the last two/three years of drought. Water supplies are increasing behind dams and in reservoirs, but experts say it could take a few years of normal rain to get all water lev...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $2.7...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Thanks to a week of minimal rainfall across Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest is gaining momentum. Weekly progress reached 5.5 percentage points, bringing total harvest completion to 13 percent of the planted area, with an average yield of 8.27 MT/ha. In...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Hot CoF Report After the Close
The fundamentals are unchanged but there is a cloud overhead due to the impending tariff war and the headwinds that portends. So, the market today and all week is a matter of treading water until more definitive cues emerge. In fact, today was so mixed that soybeans and soyoil fell even as typi...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.2...
Market Commentary: Export Sales, Weather Mix the Markets
Wheat was the ball and chain while corn was the balloon in today’s trading. The weekly USDA Export Sales report from USDA was notable for wheat with washouts in old crop sales leading to a marketing year low, but new crop sales going blockbuster as Guatemala, Mexico and Panama all sought...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 7-13, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 248,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,900 MT were up noticeably from the prev...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Exports Stumble; China Crush Falls
The Market The weekly Export Sales report was disappointing for soybeans as old crop net sales fell by half from the prior week and new crop net sales registered only 10 KMT – down sharply from the prior week’s volume of 43.1 KMT. Old crop exports were also lower than the prio...
Market Commentary: U.S., Paris Wheat Diverge; Corn Consolidates; New Highs for Cattle
Except for the wheat market, the CBOT and CME largely continued their existing trends on Wednesday. Wheat futures offered perhaps the most interesting trade as HRW futures reversed course from their recent weather-induced rally and pulled back. The spot KCBT contract settled below $6.00, which...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.7/short ton, down $2.2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 March 2025 Probably for the first time in recent history the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced crop production in Russia including “new territories” (occupied territories of Ukraine). The Ministry reported that during 2024, grain prod...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal
Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight day. Unexpected strength in the physical cattle and beef markets has propelled futures higher this week, with funds rapidly expanding already...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, down $...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and Algeria are seeing swarms of desert locusts coming from Libya on current strong winds. Both countries have taken immediate action to control the insects before serious crop damage can occur. Pakistan’s wheat prod...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.155/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.3/short ton, down $1.6 from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Harvest Progress and Crop Conditions Rain has slowed the corn harvest across much of Argentina’s central region, with progress advancing just 1.4 percentage points over the past week. So far, 8.1 percent of the national total has been harvested, surpassing last season’s pace by...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egg shortages and rising prices are not just a feature of U.S. agriculture right now, German and northern European markets broadly are experiencing similar shortages. German sources note the supply of “barn eggs” is too small for “prevailing demand”...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of their long (74,000 contracts) and are now long just 132,000 contracts, or less than half of their position just a few weeks ago. That rapid li...
Market Commentary: Week of Turmoil, Uncertainty, but Not All Dark
There was little in terms of new fundamentals today, and on generally lower volume the board saw mixed trading and results. It was a big week for HRW as the acuity of the drought in the Southern Plains becomes clearer. Overall, the trends are as follows: It was the fourth week in a row lower f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.16/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $305.9/short ton, down $1.2 f...
CONAB Forecasts Record Soybean Production
Brazilian soybean farmers will reap an even bigger crop in the 2024/25 season than previously expected, according to forecasts released by the Brazilian crop agency CONAB yesterday. Brazil's soybean crop, which farmers are harvesting now, is expected to total 167.37 MMT, about 1.3 M...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $307.1/short ton, up $6.9 from...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade Wars Continue to Drive Markets
The Market Of course, the big news in oilseed markets this past week has revolved around tariffs and retaliatory tariffs – most notably China and the EU’s reactions to President Trump’s new tariffs. Both China and the EU announced retaliatory tariffs that included additi...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts this year's total planted area to be higher than the previous year, reaching almost 84 million hectares (Mha), of which 55.8 million are spring crops. The Russian Statistics Agency reported that wheat pr...
Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War
Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE release and stayed that way. While corn and soybeans traded mostly in the green ahead of the report, wheat had no reason to be bullish. There wa...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The price estimates for meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, dow...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s change in government wheat importation is said to have led to market confusion and a drop in available wheat supply. The change from GASC to Mostakbal Misr (MM) has caused major changes in buying methods, with intern...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.25/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent volatility in oilseed markets has caused the three legs of the U.S. soybean crush to see interesting and divergent dynamics in 2025. Soybean futures have seen steady pressure since early February as the advancing Brazilian harvest and concerns about retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trad...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 21-27, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 380,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 5 perce...
Oilseed Highlights: Tariffs Rock Global Oilseed Complex
The Market The CBOT soy complex saw dramatic volatility over the past week due to the impact of U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China and China’s retaliatory tariffs against U.S. soybeans. The tariffs have yet to substantially alter trade flows, though export sales and ship...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 February 2025 During the last week of February, the market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Milling wheat remained bullish pulling up feed wheat and milling rye which is in short supply as well. And it is no wonder as during 2024 rye crop acre...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Central Bank has left interest rates unchanged, with the main operational interest rate standing at 27.75 percent per annum. Egypt and the EU have agreed on a €90 million European Investment Bank finance program...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s all-grain exports are down 1 percent YTD through February at 29 MMT. February shipments fell 40 percent from the same month in 2024 and totaled 3.2 MMT. The EU Commission lowered its forecast of the bloc’s total grain production for 2024/25 to 255...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
WPI 2025/26 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook
Following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and the release of the agency’s initial 2025/26 outlooks, WPI has updated our major crop forecasts for the coming marketing year as well. Our latest model runs indicate a more bearish outlook for corn as ending stocks are forecast to incr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.81/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $2.3...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Acreage Slightly Bullish; Policy Wildcards Abound
The soy complex has been under broad pressure over the past week with soyoil leading to the downside charge on weaker energy and outside vegoil markets, combined with ample technical selling. The weakness in soyoil pulled the soybean crush sharply lower with soyoil’s share of the crush ma...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 14-20, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 269,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 378,700 MT were up 63 percent from the previous week, but down 9 per...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Ag Futures Fall; Bears Trying to Run Away with Market
The CBOT was broadly lower on Wednesday with fund selling and a lack of bullish news or inputs pushing values into the red. Wheat was the biggest loser for the day and its weakness helped pull corn off an early rally where May futures tested the $5.00 level to no avail. The soy complex was on t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices are frozen. The export market remains the key driver, and the world is watching several factors including remaining stocks of wheat as well as the status of the w...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Further but Soy Complex Show Strength
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with risk-off trade and seasonal factors driving most of the day’s action. The markets are also seeing a good bit of repositioning heading into first notice day on Friday, which helped drive heavy-volume trade and some of spread trade dynamics. The soy...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.1...
2025 Planted Acres: Corn to Expand
Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux, however, multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S. That is according to CoBank’s outlook, predicting an increase of 4.17 million acres of corn. For soybeans, tariffs on i...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) has increased its ownership in Olam Agri from 35 percent to 80 percent with an option to buy the remaining shares within three years. Olam Agri is Singapore-based with an...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas needing precipitation received some relief, particularly in the northern core region and western agricultural zones. Currently, soils in the co...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.9/short ton, down $3 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds
The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gains in the longer dated positions. South American weather and the volatile situation in macro markets with consumers pulling back each had th...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 7-13, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 532,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 232,700 MT were down 60 percent from the previous week and 43 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9125/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.8/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Oilseed Highlights: Strong Vegoil Markets Support Oilseeds
The Market The major action in global oilseed markets this past week has been in the vegoil realm, where tightening global supplies have pushed prices higher. In turn, oilseed markets, including those for soybeans and rapeseed/canola, have been mostly steady as the advancing Brazilian har...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, up $0.9...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices froze along with export demand for the latter. Keep in mind that beginning 15 February, the new export quota for grains covers only wheat. Wheat allowed for expor...
Market Commentary: Exports Bouy Corn; Wheat Rallies on Cold Snap Concerns
Grain futures were weaker overnight following the long weekend and after President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy. The markets bounced back Tuesday, however, with a positive export sales report buoying corn while fears of winterkill in the U.S. winter wheat crop pushed wheat futures...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6.0475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.385/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $293.8/short ton, down $2.1 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The 2025 dates for Ramadan are estimated to be 28 February until 30 March. The actual dates will depend on the location of each country. Egypt’s government hopes to increase its local wheat purchases in 2025 by 11 percent to...
Market Commentary: Weather, Economy, Tariffs All Jiggle the Market
There were surprisingly only modest trading volumes in this last trading session before a three-day holiday. There was no rush to escape positions. The livestock complex and soyoil closed lower, but the rest of the top trading ag commodities made gains on the day, but only cattle, soybeans, and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $3.2 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7775/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $1.4 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 31-February 6, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 569,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 577,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 85...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2775/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 February 2025 The market remained bullish. Farmers keep sitting on grains expecting a better price amid rumours that ending stocks are melting away and grain will be in short supply soon. Both in Russia and Kazakhstan, export prices, the key driver on the mark...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296.6/short ton, down $3.9 fr...
WASDE Soybeans - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of soybeans for the 2024/25 season. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound. The projection for global endi...
Moral Reciprocity
President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are mostly pure protectionism. Canada, Brazil and Mexico are the main suppliers, not the state-driven over-production of China. But now the President says he is going to impose reciprocal tariffs, matching dollar for dollar (percent...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – Mea Region Turkey’s wheat imports and exports are lower in 2024/25 due to restrictions by the Turkish government that will reduce the high level of stocks on hand. Morocco’s 2024 wheat and barley production is down by 40 p...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.915/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.5/short ton, down $0.9 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Significant rainfall fell across almost the entire Argentine agricultural region last week, with the highest accumulations in the core corn and soybean areas. These rains followed weeks of intense drought and high temperatures. Soil moisture maps show substantial improvements in the nucleu...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Global wheat prices were higher last week as concerns about the 2024/25 Russian supply and export program increase as well as concerns about the 2025/26 Black Sea production outlook. Russian exports are down sharply over the past few weeks and are projected to total just 2.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.4/short ton, down $5 f...
WPI 2025 Acreage Outlook
With the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook forum happening at the end of this month and planting season a little more than four weeks away for parts of the U.S., the industry is turning its attention to the acreage outlook for 2025. This year offers significant differences from recent conditions t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 24-30, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 438,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 4 percent from the previous week, but up 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 264,800 MT were down 55 percent from the previous week and 24 per...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $306.4/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Market Commentary: Volatile As Long As Tariffs Are Uncertain
The big news in the ag commodity markets Wednesday was the pullback in soybean futures as traders remain wary of the political tensions and tariff developments between Washington and Beijing. If this doesn’t sound like a major news story, you’d be correct, but this was about as even...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9325/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $5...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 January 2025 The market remained bullish, however, the dynamics and stability varied from region to region. Prices in the Volga Valley appreciated but Central Russia and the Asian part of Russia are still stable. The key factor was the announcement of lower...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Tariff Relief; Cattle Selloff Extends to Second Day
Markets were encouraged by the fact both Canada and Mexico were able to secure 30-day delays on Trump’s tariff plans, which offers hope the duties are indeed a negotiating tactic rather than a steadfast policy platform. The big issue remains the 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and Chi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.945/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, up $10.3 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s monthly inflation rate increased by 5.03 percent in January while the 12-month inflation rate stood at 42.12 percent. Turkey’s inflation rate dropped significantly from the 75 percent rate in May 2024. Lebanon...
Market Commentary: Tariff Whiplash
News of President Trump’s tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada drove the agricultural and macroeconomic markets on Monday with seemingly every tick, dip, and rally stemming from political factors. Over the weekend, President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods as well...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $2.6 f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The reduction in export taxes has not yet had the expected impact of boosting farmer sales of grain and soybeans. The main issue is that price transmission has not been fully realized, primarily because exporters oppose the requirement to bring foreign currency into the countr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds still engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Funds expanded their long position in corn by 7 percent and are now just about 17,000 contract shy of their seasonal record long position. Funds were n...
Market Commentary: Tariffs More Than Weather
President Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow eclipsed concerns about South American weather and sent much of the agricultural futures complex into the red on Friday. Both countries will retaliate with Canada saying it will be...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.595/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.42/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $3.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day with Wheat Hot, The Rest Not
Today’s trading session pretty much followed the overnight with wheat notching a third day of gains but traders taking a breather on corn, beans, and cattle. While wheat is girded by doubtful moisture conditions in the northern Black Sea region, the corn and soybean markets do not want to...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 17-23, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 456,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 96 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 588,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 97 percent fro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.665/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $5.1 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Lead CBOT Higher; Cattle Correct Ahead of Inventory Report
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday due to the bullish influences of wheat and corn. The two grains saw support from Black Sea and South American weather impacts, respectively, with production outlooks for both regions falling. That put futures in a bullish mood with funds expanding net lon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.97/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $8.2 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 January 2025 The domestic market remained bullish while the export market in dollar terms remained relatively stable. Export duties decreased slightly allowing prices to grow. Most likely the biggest bullish factor is the remaining grain stocks which are mel...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain but Lack Conviction; More All-Time Highs for Cattle
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday in what was mostly a technically driven corrective bounce. With South America’s weather still not perfect and various harvest/planting delays ongoing, there is a need to maintain some risk premium in prices. At the same time, however, overall supplies (es...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $0.8 from yes...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s new state grain buyer – Mostakbal Misr – is rumored to have made significant wheat purchases for delivery in the next three months. All the purchases are said to be for Russian wheat. No details of the pu...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Tariff Threats Ease; Cattle Surge to New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-tat trade war over the weekend. Sunday saw both the U.S. and Colombian presidents threaten each other’s country with 25 percent tariffs...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.8/short ton, down $4.1...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The state of agriculture in Argentina and the loss of export competitiveness become clearer when examined through recent data. The official inflation rate for December 2024 was reported at 2.7 percent, resulting in an accumulated inflation rate of 117.8 percent for 2024. During this period, the...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latter. There were new contract highs, again, in cattle. Overall weakness was blamed on Argentina’s announced lower tax rates on commodity...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 10-16, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 164,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 201,300 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 41 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.865/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5575/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still plenty of strength. Corn remains up about a nickel for the week, beans up more than 30-cents and while wheat dipped today, the large gains l...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8975/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.655/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $0.5 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat on Profit Taking, Tariff Talk; Cattle Hit $200 for First Time
Except for soymeal and the livestock markets, the CBOT was lower on Wednesday with traders booking profits and taking a more cautious approach after the recent runup in prices. Too, rhetoric out of the White House is keeping traders guessing on the possible application of and retaliation to var...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 January 2025 Last week, the market woke up from the prolonged Christmas holidays and surprisingly remained bullish against a stable export trend and high export duties. Growing duties may nip the bullish trend in the bud. Russian wheat can now freely go into...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Surge as Dollar Slides
The first full day of the Trump Presidency saw CBOT grain futures surge as the U.S. dollar pulled back sharply. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all saw strong buying influences after the long U.S. holiday weekend with traders seeing bullish news from several points. The first point was President Trum...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the biggest feature of the report was funds’ exchange of a small net short in soybeans for a modest long of 58,000 contracts, after they bought...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $2.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Market Gets a Bounce Ahead of Long Weekend
Commodity markets retraced some of the losses from Thursday, ending higher on Friday but not necessarily for the week. Corn is on a roll, nearing heights not seen in more than a year, but even cattle lost some of their bullish glow this week. 01172025MC_weeklychange.png 22.13 KBA key vect...
Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake
Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than nothing, and something is all it takes to put brakes on a borderline market. The day’s trading closely tracked the overnight, with red showi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 3-9, 2025Wheat: Net sales of 513,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 196,500 MT were down 53 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.19/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.4/short ton, down $7.6 f...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Trends and Acreage Outlook
U.S. Soybean Crush Dynamics On Wednesday, National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) said its members crushed an all-time record volume of soybeans of 206.6 Mbu, up 7 percent from November and up 5.7 percent from December 2023. Soyoil stocks came in at 1.24 billion pounds, which was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 January 2025Traditionally during a prolonged holiday season, which in Russia does not coincide with the holiday season in most other countries because of the Russian Orthodox calendar, Russian grain trading volume is low. However, pricing forgot about the holiday s...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather
The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as fully priced into futures, which left markets to return to trading the South American weather outlooks and export trends. Both of these facto...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $2 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONSyria has been added to Ukraine’s list of countries eligible for assistance under the “Grain from Ukraine” aid program – an initial shipment of 500 MT of wheat flour has been made to Syria by Ukraine.Ukraine expanded its “Grain from Ukra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ activity matched up with expectations and general market direction. Note that the data, which captures funds’ positions through Tuesday, 7 Jan...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trying to Find New Ranges
The CBOT saw more bullish influences on Monday from Friday’s WASDE report in which USDA slashed the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields. After considering the numbers and implications over the weekend, traders decided there was enough demand for both products and, if USDA’s latest numbers are cor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.8/short ton, up $9.5 from yester...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatWith week-on-week progress of 3.5 percentage points, Argentina’s wheat harvest has reached 98 percent of the area and is nearing completion. Total production is expected to reach approximately 18.5 MMT.Markets have shown few updates, and local wheat prices remain nearly unchanged. As a res...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the Balkans and Ukraine saw unseasonably warm weather with moderate rainfall while Russia saw cold weather with light precipitation. The current forecasts call for cooler temperatures in France and Spain, but warmth in the UK and from Poland eastward (with the exce...
Market Commentary: Big Bullish Whopper
This last trading day of the first full trading week of 2025 came in like a whimper and went out with a bang. The trading day started with a notably sub-par Export Sales report from USDA. New commitments for wheat, corn, and soybeans all hit a marketing year low for export sales last week...
Updated: The Historic Context for January WASDE Yield Surprises
Errata: The original version of this article incorrectly state the January 2018 soybean yield estimate at 50.6 BPA, instead of the true February (which made up for the delayed January report) estimate of 51.6 BPA. All statistics related to this yield estimate and charts/tables have been correct...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.705/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, up $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 27, 2024 – January 2, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 111,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 21 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 414,300 MT were up 9 percent f...
WASDE Soybeans Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for U.S. soybean production is down 95 million bushels to 4.366 billion bushels due to a 1 bushel per acre yield reduction – to average U.S. soybean yield of 50.7 bushels per acre. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, un...
Oilseed Highlights
The Market Soybean futures have largely been waiting for the January WASDE report, which USDA will publish on today, with traders specifically focusing on the South American supply outlooks. The dry weather in Argentina has been largely offset by favorable conditions in Brazil, leaving the...
Market Commentary: Big Nothingburger
It was a good thing that futures markets closed early today given that there were very few inputs to guide movements. The U.S. government was closed in observance of President Jimmy Carter’s memorial, so reports like weekly Export Sales are delayed until tomorrow. Wall Street and the...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $299.3/short ton, down $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Comfortable, With Jitters
There was generally low volume in grains today as traders await USDA’s important reports on Friday. There is no reason to spend more money on fees or commissions after spending several days aligning with the perceived outcomes. At the same time, market noise does not completely stop and there i...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3625/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.8/short ton, down $2.7 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 December 2024 – 3 January 2025As of the end of 2024, Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) statistics show “preliminary” grain crop size at 124.96 MMT without including occupied territories of Ukraine, but including annexed Crimea. RosStat can issue “preliminary” updates...
Market Commentary: No Major Swings on More Positioning Ahead of WASDE
Corn opened lower but managed a quarter penny higher close, and hogs tried to follow cattle higher at the open but ended lower for a third session in a row, but the rest of the pack ended the day where it started with equally small changes.Fundamentals are helping corn, wheat and cattle, and so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.58/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.5/short ton, down $3.8 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt will see the investment of $100 million by China’s New Hope Group in the expansion of its animal feed operations. New Hope currently has five production facilities in Egypt producing 650,000 MT of animal feeds which will be increas...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Precipitation Forecasts Fall
The CBOT tried – and mostly succeeded – to reverse Friday’s selloff with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all turning higher to start the first full trading week of 2025. The fundamental catalysts for the day’s strength were the slide in the U.S. dollar, thanks to more trade-friendly (or at lea...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9775/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.3/short ton, down $1.3 from yes...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
2025 Outlook Last year was extremely challenging for Argentine agriculture, with sharp declines in commodity prices exacerbating the situation in recent months. The exchange rate has shifted from approximately 800 ARS/USD to 1,030 ARS/USD, while high dollar inflation has significantly incr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.6/short ton, down $11...
Market Commentary: 2025 Brings Corrections for Overbought Futures
The CBOT started 2025 on a relatively strong note, but any hints of bullishness were largely erased on Friday. Ag markets across the board fell sharply on the second trading day of the new year with weak export data, South American weather, and changes on taxes on trading profits driving much o...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 20-26, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 140,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 77 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 381,900 MT were up 2 percent from the previous...
Market Commentary: New Year, Same Trend - Corn and Beans Higher, Wheat Not
Corn and soybeans opened lower but quickly shifted back to positive territory. All three wheats were lower in overnight trading and pretty much traded lower all during the day session. There was good volume trading in HRW, cattle and feeders. March feeder cattle hit a new contract high. Lean ho...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $319.9/short ton, up $3 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Year End Rally in Corn and Beans
The day’s trading started out hum and glum. Corn and soybean contracts moved modestly like their overnight closes and stayed marginal for most of the day. Soyoil was continuing its recent mostly negative run. Wheat never went anywhere important, high or low. Then there was a breakout late...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.515/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, up $5.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Year-End Maneuvering
On this penultimate day of trading in 2024, there were ups, downs and perhaps some profit-taking. Like the overnight, grains and soybeans opened higher this morning. However, by late morning most contracts dipped lower and then the soy complex, SRW and HRW managed to snag a higher close at the...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, up $1.3 from...
Export Sales Bouy Grains; Argy Weather, Slow Exports Sink Soybeans
Grain markets were quiet in Friday’s overnight trade despite the bullish technical days they scored on Thursday. The Export Sales report – as one of the few fundamental updates available for the day – was influential in determining the grain markets’ direction for the day. That meant support fo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.465/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $310.5/short ton, down $4.4 from y...
Argentine Weather Emboldens CBOT Bulls
The CBOT found its way to higher ground on Thursday after an old-school hard opening with no overnight session to guide the market. Argentina’s weather is starting to become more impactful for grain futures as dryness persists into the mid-January forecast, which could disrupt early corn and so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314.9/short ton, up $13.3 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 December 2024Last week, the Russian grain markets showed the first signs of the holiday season with rather weak trading. Russian grain markets and especially export business will adjust to the Christmas season globally which will then enter Russian Orthodox Christ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7525/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Consolidate in Pre-Christmas Trade
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal closed higher ahead of the Christmas holiday, driven by short covering, technical factors, and increasing dryness in Argentina. Trading volume was predictably light on Christmas Eve, as traders showed little interest in adding risk during the seasonal trading slowdow...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey has revised its wheat import rules for flour millers – millers can now import up to 25 percent of their wheat supply, up from 15 percent. The remaining 75 percent must be purchased from TMO, the government’s grain company. The cha...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Corn followed the wheat market higher with its own support from the strong export program as USDA reported more “flash” export sales Monday. S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.695/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $4.2 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatOver the past seven days, the lack of rain allowed a 12.2-percentage-point increase in Argentina’s wheat harvest progress, which reached 76.1 percent of the area. Harvesting activities have focused on central and western Buenos Aires Province. Meanwhile, wheat commercialization and truck a...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT announced at the EEU meeting last month. Milling Wheat Global wheat markets continue to see pressure from slowing U.S. exports an...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.745/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302.2/short ton, up $11.2 from yesterday...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipment for December 6-12, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 457,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 58 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 405,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 49 percent from th...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not oversold technically, but with values sitting on or near major support levels, many traders figured this was the time to take short risk off t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.63/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $4.9 from yeste...
Oilseed Highlights: Confluence of Bearish Factors
The MarketAfter hitting a four year low including a contract low of 947/bushel yesterday, the March contract bounced back 13.25 cents in today’s trading. Bears are targeting $9/soybeans but today’s bounce indicates technical factors will make that a challenging target before year's end. However...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.5175/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $7.7...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 December 2024Russian grain markets remained relatively stable but, in some areas, especially export platform, prices were bearish. Part of the reason behind a bearish trend is the potential decrease of stocks. As of early December, stocks of agricultural companies...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and wheat flirting with contract lows. Not even the news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations and Spain...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7675/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt is rumored to be considering further devaluation of its currency against the U.S. dollar. The Egyptian pound has slipped a little in value to 51 to the U.S. dollar, from 48 to the dollar. However, Egypt’s Prime Minister says that t...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest recorded a week-on-week progress of 15.8 percentage points and reached 63.9 percent of the total area. Yields remain generally good and, in some cases, surpass initial expectations, prompting upward revisions to production estimates. The market projects 18–1...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.82/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $0.7 from yeste...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, a vessel rammed a lock on the Moselle River in Germany, which led Euronext to suspend delivery at French delivery ports on the river for February 2025. The damage was sufficient that initial estimates cited “months” to repair the lock, but more recent news indicate...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume declined this week and, barring some surprise, will be even lower through the holidays. There was nothing unlucky about Friday the 13th, unl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.2/short ton, down $3.3 f...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all on the low end of expectations and below last week’s values, which prompted traders to abandon (temporarily, at le...
Oilseed Highlights: Limping Along
The MarketSoybean futures continue their steady, narrow-range trading. South America is the big unknown and hedging both upside and downside risk means hovering right where we are. Soybean export sales last week were the second lowest of the marketing year, indicating buyers see lower prices ah...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 29-December 5, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 290,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 198,900 MT were down 38 percent from the previous week and 33 perc...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm Following Bullish WASDE; Cattle Extend Rally
Grain futures continued to find support from Tuesday’s bullish WASDE report with corn, wheat, and soybeans all trading higher, though corn futures dipped into the red during the final minutes of trading. Traders followed through on the bullish signals from the WASDE as well as increasingly bull...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6325/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.955/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.9 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 December 2024Export duties were the key driver followed by forex and increased freight costs for rail deliveries which are the main channel of grain delivery to the ports both from Russian territory and occupied territories of Ukraine. Before, freight was not a majo...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Market Commentary: WASDE Increases Corn, Soyoil Demand; Cattle Rally on Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the WASDE as funds were cautiously covering shorts and paring back risk before the holidays. The WASDE proved to be slightly bullish corn and mostly neutral soybeans and wheat, proving the short-covering trend to have been a good idea. Aside from the WASD...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $292/short ton, up $2.4 from yester...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONAn Egyptian military organization has reportedly taken over the wheat purchasing responsibility of Egypt’s GASC. Mostakbal Misr Agency, an armed forces offshoot, is said to now be fully responsible as the exclusive organi...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Ahead of the WASDE
The CBOT saw mostly WASDE-motivated short covering on Monday with funds scaling back short positions in wheat and soybeans and cautiously extending longs in the corn market. Fresh news was light for the day and traders were mostly focused on adjusting positions ahead of the WASDE. The weather r...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine wheat harvest has reached 48.1 percent of the expected area, with weekly progress of 9.4 percentage points, with efforts primarily focused in the central agricultural region. Standing crops are transitioning from late grain filling to physiological maturity, with 80.7 p...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU and Mercosur trade blocs finally signed a free trade agreement that had been delayed and debated for 25 years or so. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heralded the agreement in a press conference in Montevideo and cited the need for more free trade in the fa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday season. Corn’s range-bound trade these past two weeks prompted funds to shed 13 percent of their long position in the market and have liquida...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.4/short ton, down $3.7 from yesterda...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectations for consumption of renewable diesel and biodiesel. This fact is likely well known by WPI readers, though the details of what exactly ha...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Higher on Export Data
The CBOT moved higher on Thursday after the weekly Export Sales report provided bullish demand-side inputs for the major commodities. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil futures all pushed higher for the day with export demand seeming to pick up and remain above expectations in the case of corn,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from yesterda...
Oilseed Highlights: Hovering Lower but Holding Steady
MarketAfter four sessions of yoyoing up and down on lower volume, January soybeans are rangebound and net 4.25 cents higher thus far this week. There have been no fundamental changes and that leaves traders comfortable with where things stand. Going more bearish would be getting out in front of...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 22-28, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 378,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 322,400 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week, but up 1...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat; Cattle Contemplate their Direction
The CBOT continued its mostly range-bound trading affair on Wednesday with the ag markets seeing little fresh news to drive price action one way or another. Wheat futures hit new contract lows but recovered from that selloff to end slightly higher, though the market seems committed to staying n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 26 November, Russian farmers produced 132 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 19.3 MMT less than a year ago. This is with the crop harvested from 97.7 percent of the area yielding only 2.82 M/ha versus 3.16/MT a year ago. Grain yields...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8375/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.5 from y...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trade Yields Few Gains; Cattle Continue Rally
The CBOT saw firmer trade on Tuesday, but that strength failed to develop into anything really meaningful on the charts. The soy complex saw the most widespread strength on the heels of a record-breaking U.S. crush in November, as reported by the USDA on Monday, and from Tuesday’s rally in crud...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3225/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $290.4/short ton, up $2.5 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONIraq’s grain import requirements for 2024/25 are expected to be lower according to the FAO as a result of the good 2023/24 wheat crop. Wheat imports are seen dropping by 23 percent to about 1.8 MMT. Iraq has also added a...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the oilseed complex more broadly – are seeing pressure from excellent conditions in South America as well as the political ramifications of Presi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
November Rainfall and Crop Impacts in ArgentinaRecent rains have brought significant rain accumulation for Argentina, with precipitation in November exceeding the historical monthly average in most areas. After three years of severe drought, the rainfall is a welcome development for soil moistu...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8525/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.9/short ton, down $4 f...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia announced last week that it will impose its now-typical export quota on grains from 15 February though 30 June 2025. This year’s quota will be reduced to 11 MMT, or about one-third of last year’s 29-MMT quota. During the quota period, no shipments of corn, barley, and...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 15-21, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 366,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 433,800 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 89 perc...
Market Commentary: Holiday Thinned but Notable Trade
With no overnight trading for comparison and shortened trading hours today, volume was low and there were no dramatic shifts. Friday’s agricultural futures trading mostly reinforced current trends. Those include:Trading this week lopped off the most value from wheat and lean hogsThe March HRW c...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.33/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.895/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $3.5 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $295.4/short ton, up $4 from yesterday...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18 – 22 November 2024Russian Vice Premier Dmitri Patrushev is confident that Russia will export up to 60 MMT of grains this season. According to Mr. Patrushev, the gross grain production this season will reach 130 MMT in standard weight, of which 83 MMT is wheat. The Vice...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.58/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $4.5 from...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with pressure from macroeconomic markets increasing. In addition to sparking trade wars with nearly every major U.S. trading partner, U.S. Preside...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading under the new exchange rate regulations, so it took the markets a few days to adjust. Regarding the official exchange rate, it opened on Monday...
2025/2026 Trade Update
Almost none of the primary U.S. grain or oilseed offerings have made a solid start to 2025-26, as export sales for the upcoming marketing year are largely near multi-year lows. This is not yet a huge problem since the typical buying periods for the season’s supplies are mostly still in th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major ag market, with the notable exception of cattle futures. The buying was most notable in soybeans where, despite the trade war, funds flippe...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 483,500 MT were up 43 percent from the previous week and 11 percent f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers will plant around 84 million ha (Mha) which is up almost 1 Mha from last season. 20 Mha have already been planted with winter crops. Accordi...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan increased its domestic price for wheat flour by 2.8 percent. This is the selling price set monthly by the government for sales by local flour mills. According to officials, this will not affect the local price of bread whic...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong
The Market Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s massive reversal and rally in the same markets. The net result of this is that soy complex futures are largely little changed – especi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 339,100 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 16 per...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 March – 4 April 2025 Russian wheat, the only de-facto exportable commodity for the moment, is relatively stable but shows the first signs of appreciation. This is happening amid solid demand from exporters and melting stocks. As of 1 March, Russian wheat stocks s...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s grain production was down by 17 percent in 2024 and due to dry weather and security production does not look any better for 2025, all according to the latest FAO report on Syria. In 2024, wheat production was at 1.9...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Update Argentina Faces Harvest Delays and Changing Trade Dynamics Corn harvest progress in Argentina was slow last week, with only 1 percentage point gained due to early-week rainfall. As a result, the total harvested area has reached 20 percent. With improved weather in recent days...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Both the GBP and EUR are seen as safe-haven trades right now, which has led to appreciation in both currencies. That is making exports less attractive from the UK and Europe, which is not what the markets need as they are already facing strong competition from Russia and Ukr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 499,600 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from th...
Oilseed Highlights: “Liberation Day” Rattles Markets
The Market Prior to the Liberation Day tariffs that President Trump announced late Wednesday, oilseed markets were seeing noted strength due to renewed hopes for biodiesel demand. Earlier this week, news broke that members of the oil and renewable energy sectors met with the EPA to discus...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture once again announced revised figures for the 2024 crop including occupied territories of Ukraine. The total crop size showed 129.8 MMT - this is the number the Russian Statistics Agency recently reported. For re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region There is very little information on the Middle East and North Africa due to the end of Ramadan and the start of the EID holidays. Tomorrow, 2 April, is “import tariff day”. Import tariffs by the U.S. and reciprocal tar...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Continues to Face Weather Instability Argentina remains in a period of climate instability, with frequent heavy rains, strong winds, and occasional hail affecting some agricultural areas this week. Rainfall in the northern region – which had been suffering from low s...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.23/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $1 f...
Slow Soy Sales in Argentina Following Policy Changes
Argentine soybean farmers are selling their crop at the slowest pace in 10 years as producers bet on the likely effects of libertarian President Javier Milei’s actions on commodity markets, including a weakening of the peso and potential tax relief. The sales are a quarter below where the...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 14-20, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 100,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 428,700 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week, but...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1675/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
Oilseed Highlights: Soyoil, Rapeseed Rally on Demand Surge
The Market The big movement in oilseed markets this week is the rally in soyoil futures, which are up 4 percent from last week. The market has rallied due to its large discount against palm oil futures and recent gains in rapeseed prices that are supporting oilseed and vegoils broadly. U...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.01/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 March 2025 Russian farmers started planting and fertilizing winter crops which is rather early for this time of the year. Rostov Oblast for example has already planted 5 percent of the planned spring crops area. Moreover, this Oblast set a new record fo...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco’s rainfall has increased this year after the last two/three years of drought. Water supplies are increasing behind dams and in reservoirs, but experts say it could take a few years of normal rain to get all water lev...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $2.7...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Thanks to a week of minimal rainfall across Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest is gaining momentum. Weekly progress reached 5.5 percentage points, bringing total harvest completion to 13 percent of the planted area, with an average yield of 8.27 MT/ha. In...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Hot CoF Report After the Close
The fundamentals are unchanged but there is a cloud overhead due to the impending tariff war and the headwinds that portends. So, the market today and all week is a matter of treading water until more definitive cues emerge. In fact, today was so mixed that soybeans and soyoil fell even as typi...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.2...
Market Commentary: Export Sales, Weather Mix the Markets
Wheat was the ball and chain while corn was the balloon in today’s trading. The weekly USDA Export Sales report from USDA was notable for wheat with washouts in old crop sales leading to a marketing year low, but new crop sales going blockbuster as Guatemala, Mexico and Panama all sought...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 7-13, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 248,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,900 MT were up noticeably from the prev...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Exports Stumble; China Crush Falls
The Market The weekly Export Sales report was disappointing for soybeans as old crop net sales fell by half from the prior week and new crop net sales registered only 10 KMT – down sharply from the prior week’s volume of 43.1 KMT. Old crop exports were also lower than the prio...
Market Commentary: U.S., Paris Wheat Diverge; Corn Consolidates; New Highs for Cattle
Except for the wheat market, the CBOT and CME largely continued their existing trends on Wednesday. Wheat futures offered perhaps the most interesting trade as HRW futures reversed course from their recent weather-induced rally and pulled back. The spot KCBT contract settled below $6.00, which...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.7/short ton, down $2.2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 March 2025 Probably for the first time in recent history the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced crop production in Russia including “new territories” (occupied territories of Ukraine). The Ministry reported that during 2024, grain prod...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal
Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight day. Unexpected strength in the physical cattle and beef markets has propelled futures higher this week, with funds rapidly expanding already...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, down $...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and Algeria are seeing swarms of desert locusts coming from Libya on current strong winds. Both countries have taken immediate action to control the insects before serious crop damage can occur. Pakistan’s wheat prod...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.155/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.3/short ton, down $1.6 from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Harvest Progress and Crop Conditions Rain has slowed the corn harvest across much of Argentina’s central region, with progress advancing just 1.4 percentage points over the past week. So far, 8.1 percent of the national total has been harvested, surpassing last season’s pace by...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egg shortages and rising prices are not just a feature of U.S. agriculture right now, German and northern European markets broadly are experiencing similar shortages. German sources note the supply of “barn eggs” is too small for “prevailing demand”...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of their long (74,000 contracts) and are now long just 132,000 contracts, or less than half of their position just a few weeks ago. That rapid li...
Market Commentary: Week of Turmoil, Uncertainty, but Not All Dark
There was little in terms of new fundamentals today, and on generally lower volume the board saw mixed trading and results. It was a big week for HRW as the acuity of the drought in the Southern Plains becomes clearer. Overall, the trends are as follows: It was the fourth week in a row lower f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.16/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $305.9/short ton, down $1.2 f...
CONAB Forecasts Record Soybean Production
Brazilian soybean farmers will reap an even bigger crop in the 2024/25 season than previously expected, according to forecasts released by the Brazilian crop agency CONAB yesterday. Brazil's soybean crop, which farmers are harvesting now, is expected to total 167.37 MMT, about 1.3 M...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $307.1/short ton, up $6.9 from...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade Wars Continue to Drive Markets
The Market Of course, the big news in oilseed markets this past week has revolved around tariffs and retaliatory tariffs – most notably China and the EU’s reactions to President Trump’s new tariffs. Both China and the EU announced retaliatory tariffs that included additi...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts this year's total planted area to be higher than the previous year, reaching almost 84 million hectares (Mha), of which 55.8 million are spring crops. The Russian Statistics Agency reported that wheat pr...
Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War
Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE release and stayed that way. While corn and soybeans traded mostly in the green ahead of the report, wheat had no reason to be bullish. There wa...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The price estimates for meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, dow...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s change in government wheat importation is said to have led to market confusion and a drop in available wheat supply. The change from GASC to Mostakbal Misr (MM) has caused major changes in buying methods, with intern...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.25/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent volatility in oilseed markets has caused the three legs of the U.S. soybean crush to see interesting and divergent dynamics in 2025. Soybean futures have seen steady pressure since early February as the advancing Brazilian harvest and concerns about retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trad...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 21-27, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 380,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 5 perce...
Oilseed Highlights: Tariffs Rock Global Oilseed Complex
The Market The CBOT soy complex saw dramatic volatility over the past week due to the impact of U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China and China’s retaliatory tariffs against U.S. soybeans. The tariffs have yet to substantially alter trade flows, though export sales and ship...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 February 2025 During the last week of February, the market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Milling wheat remained bullish pulling up feed wheat and milling rye which is in short supply as well. And it is no wonder as during 2024 rye crop acre...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Central Bank has left interest rates unchanged, with the main operational interest rate standing at 27.75 percent per annum. Egypt and the EU have agreed on a €90 million European Investment Bank finance program...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s all-grain exports are down 1 percent YTD through February at 29 MMT. February shipments fell 40 percent from the same month in 2024 and totaled 3.2 MMT. The EU Commission lowered its forecast of the bloc’s total grain production for 2024/25 to 255...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
WPI 2025/26 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook
Following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and the release of the agency’s initial 2025/26 outlooks, WPI has updated our major crop forecasts for the coming marketing year as well. Our latest model runs indicate a more bearish outlook for corn as ending stocks are forecast to incr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.81/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $2.3...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Acreage Slightly Bullish; Policy Wildcards Abound
The soy complex has been under broad pressure over the past week with soyoil leading to the downside charge on weaker energy and outside vegoil markets, combined with ample technical selling. The weakness in soyoil pulled the soybean crush sharply lower with soyoil’s share of the crush ma...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 14-20, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 269,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 378,700 MT were up 63 percent from the previous week, but down 9 per...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Ag Futures Fall; Bears Trying to Run Away with Market
The CBOT was broadly lower on Wednesday with fund selling and a lack of bullish news or inputs pushing values into the red. Wheat was the biggest loser for the day and its weakness helped pull corn off an early rally where May futures tested the $5.00 level to no avail. The soy complex was on t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices are frozen. The export market remains the key driver, and the world is watching several factors including remaining stocks of wheat as well as the status of the w...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Further but Soy Complex Show Strength
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with risk-off trade and seasonal factors driving most of the day’s action. The markets are also seeing a good bit of repositioning heading into first notice day on Friday, which helped drive heavy-volume trade and some of spread trade dynamics. The soy...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.1...
2025 Planted Acres: Corn to Expand
Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux, however, multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S. That is according to CoBank’s outlook, predicting an increase of 4.17 million acres of corn. For soybeans, tariffs on i...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) has increased its ownership in Olam Agri from 35 percent to 80 percent with an option to buy the remaining shares within three years. Olam Agri is Singapore-based with an...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas needing precipitation received some relief, particularly in the northern core region and western agricultural zones. Currently, soils in the co...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.9/short ton, down $3 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds
The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gains in the longer dated positions. South American weather and the volatile situation in macro markets with consumers pulling back each had th...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 7-13, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 532,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 232,700 MT were down 60 percent from the previous week and 43 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9125/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.8/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Oilseed Highlights: Strong Vegoil Markets Support Oilseeds
The Market The major action in global oilseed markets this past week has been in the vegoil realm, where tightening global supplies have pushed prices higher. In turn, oilseed markets, including those for soybeans and rapeseed/canola, have been mostly steady as the advancing Brazilian har...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, up $0.9...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices froze along with export demand for the latter. Keep in mind that beginning 15 February, the new export quota for grains covers only wheat. Wheat allowed for expor...
Market Commentary: Exports Bouy Corn; Wheat Rallies on Cold Snap Concerns
Grain futures were weaker overnight following the long weekend and after President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy. The markets bounced back Tuesday, however, with a positive export sales report buoying corn while fears of winterkill in the U.S. winter wheat crop pushed wheat futures...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6.0475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.385/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $293.8/short ton, down $2.1 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The 2025 dates for Ramadan are estimated to be 28 February until 30 March. The actual dates will depend on the location of each country. Egypt’s government hopes to increase its local wheat purchases in 2025 by 11 percent to...
Market Commentary: Weather, Economy, Tariffs All Jiggle the Market
There were surprisingly only modest trading volumes in this last trading session before a three-day holiday. There was no rush to escape positions. The livestock complex and soyoil closed lower, but the rest of the top trading ag commodities made gains on the day, but only cattle, soybeans, and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $3.2 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7775/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $1.4 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 31-February 6, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 569,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 577,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 85...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2775/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 February 2025 The market remained bullish. Farmers keep sitting on grains expecting a better price amid rumours that ending stocks are melting away and grain will be in short supply soon. Both in Russia and Kazakhstan, export prices, the key driver on the mark...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296.6/short ton, down $3.9 fr...
WASDE Soybeans - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of soybeans for the 2024/25 season. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound. The projection for global endi...
Moral Reciprocity
President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are mostly pure protectionism. Canada, Brazil and Mexico are the main suppliers, not the state-driven over-production of China. But now the President says he is going to impose reciprocal tariffs, matching dollar for dollar (percent...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – Mea Region Turkey’s wheat imports and exports are lower in 2024/25 due to restrictions by the Turkish government that will reduce the high level of stocks on hand. Morocco’s 2024 wheat and barley production is down by 40 p...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.915/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.5/short ton, down $0.9 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Significant rainfall fell across almost the entire Argentine agricultural region last week, with the highest accumulations in the core corn and soybean areas. These rains followed weeks of intense drought and high temperatures. Soil moisture maps show substantial improvements in the nucleu...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Global wheat prices were higher last week as concerns about the 2024/25 Russian supply and export program increase as well as concerns about the 2025/26 Black Sea production outlook. Russian exports are down sharply over the past few weeks and are projected to total just 2.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.4/short ton, down $5 f...
WPI 2025 Acreage Outlook
With the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook forum happening at the end of this month and planting season a little more than four weeks away for parts of the U.S., the industry is turning its attention to the acreage outlook for 2025. This year offers significant differences from recent conditions t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 24-30, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 438,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 4 percent from the previous week, but up 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 264,800 MT were down 55 percent from the previous week and 24 per...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $306.4/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Market Commentary: Volatile As Long As Tariffs Are Uncertain
The big news in the ag commodity markets Wednesday was the pullback in soybean futures as traders remain wary of the political tensions and tariff developments between Washington and Beijing. If this doesn’t sound like a major news story, you’d be correct, but this was about as even...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9325/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $5...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 January 2025 The market remained bullish, however, the dynamics and stability varied from region to region. Prices in the Volga Valley appreciated but Central Russia and the Asian part of Russia are still stable. The key factor was the announcement of lower...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Tariff Relief; Cattle Selloff Extends to Second Day
Markets were encouraged by the fact both Canada and Mexico were able to secure 30-day delays on Trump’s tariff plans, which offers hope the duties are indeed a negotiating tactic rather than a steadfast policy platform. The big issue remains the 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and Chi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.945/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, up $10.3 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s monthly inflation rate increased by 5.03 percent in January while the 12-month inflation rate stood at 42.12 percent. Turkey’s inflation rate dropped significantly from the 75 percent rate in May 2024. Lebanon...
Market Commentary: Tariff Whiplash
News of President Trump’s tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada drove the agricultural and macroeconomic markets on Monday with seemingly every tick, dip, and rally stemming from political factors. Over the weekend, President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods as well...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $2.6 f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The reduction in export taxes has not yet had the expected impact of boosting farmer sales of grain and soybeans. The main issue is that price transmission has not been fully realized, primarily because exporters oppose the requirement to bring foreign currency into the countr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds still engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Funds expanded their long position in corn by 7 percent and are now just about 17,000 contract shy of their seasonal record long position. Funds were n...
Market Commentary: Tariffs More Than Weather
President Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow eclipsed concerns about South American weather and sent much of the agricultural futures complex into the red on Friday. Both countries will retaliate with Canada saying it will be...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.595/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.42/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $3.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day with Wheat Hot, The Rest Not
Today’s trading session pretty much followed the overnight with wheat notching a third day of gains but traders taking a breather on corn, beans, and cattle. While wheat is girded by doubtful moisture conditions in the northern Black Sea region, the corn and soybean markets do not want to...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 17-23, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 456,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 96 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 588,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 97 percent fro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.665/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $5.1 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Lead CBOT Higher; Cattle Correct Ahead of Inventory Report
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday due to the bullish influences of wheat and corn. The two grains saw support from Black Sea and South American weather impacts, respectively, with production outlooks for both regions falling. That put futures in a bullish mood with funds expanding net lon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.97/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $8.2 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 January 2025 The domestic market remained bullish while the export market in dollar terms remained relatively stable. Export duties decreased slightly allowing prices to grow. Most likely the biggest bullish factor is the remaining grain stocks which are mel...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain but Lack Conviction; More All-Time Highs for Cattle
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday in what was mostly a technically driven corrective bounce. With South America’s weather still not perfect and various harvest/planting delays ongoing, there is a need to maintain some risk premium in prices. At the same time, however, overall supplies (es...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $0.8 from yes...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s new state grain buyer – Mostakbal Misr – is rumored to have made significant wheat purchases for delivery in the next three months. All the purchases are said to be for Russian wheat. No details of the pu...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Tariff Threats Ease; Cattle Surge to New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-tat trade war over the weekend. Sunday saw both the U.S. and Colombian presidents threaten each other’s country with 25 percent tariffs...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.8/short ton, down $4.1...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The state of agriculture in Argentina and the loss of export competitiveness become clearer when examined through recent data. The official inflation rate for December 2024 was reported at 2.7 percent, resulting in an accumulated inflation rate of 117.8 percent for 2024. During this period, the...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latter. There were new contract highs, again, in cattle. Overall weakness was blamed on Argentina’s announced lower tax rates on commodity...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 10-16, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 164,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 201,300 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 41 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.865/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5575/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still plenty of strength. Corn remains up about a nickel for the week, beans up more than 30-cents and while wheat dipped today, the large gains l...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8975/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.655/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $0.5 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat on Profit Taking, Tariff Talk; Cattle Hit $200 for First Time
Except for soymeal and the livestock markets, the CBOT was lower on Wednesday with traders booking profits and taking a more cautious approach after the recent runup in prices. Too, rhetoric out of the White House is keeping traders guessing on the possible application of and retaliation to var...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 January 2025 Last week, the market woke up from the prolonged Christmas holidays and surprisingly remained bullish against a stable export trend and high export duties. Growing duties may nip the bullish trend in the bud. Russian wheat can now freely go into...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Surge as Dollar Slides
The first full day of the Trump Presidency saw CBOT grain futures surge as the U.S. dollar pulled back sharply. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all saw strong buying influences after the long U.S. holiday weekend with traders seeing bullish news from several points. The first point was President Trum...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the biggest feature of the report was funds’ exchange of a small net short in soybeans for a modest long of 58,000 contracts, after they bought...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $2.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Market Gets a Bounce Ahead of Long Weekend
Commodity markets retraced some of the losses from Thursday, ending higher on Friday but not necessarily for the week. Corn is on a roll, nearing heights not seen in more than a year, but even cattle lost some of their bullish glow this week. 01172025MC_weeklychange.png 22.13 KBA key vect...
Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake
Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than nothing, and something is all it takes to put brakes on a borderline market. The day’s trading closely tracked the overnight, with red showi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 3-9, 2025Wheat: Net sales of 513,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 196,500 MT were down 53 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.19/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.4/short ton, down $7.6 f...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Trends and Acreage Outlook
U.S. Soybean Crush Dynamics On Wednesday, National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) said its members crushed an all-time record volume of soybeans of 206.6 Mbu, up 7 percent from November and up 5.7 percent from December 2023. Soyoil stocks came in at 1.24 billion pounds, which was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 January 2025Traditionally during a prolonged holiday season, which in Russia does not coincide with the holiday season in most other countries because of the Russian Orthodox calendar, Russian grain trading volume is low. However, pricing forgot about the holiday s...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather
The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as fully priced into futures, which left markets to return to trading the South American weather outlooks and export trends. Both of these facto...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $2 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONSyria has been added to Ukraine’s list of countries eligible for assistance under the “Grain from Ukraine” aid program – an initial shipment of 500 MT of wheat flour has been made to Syria by Ukraine.Ukraine expanded its “Grain from Ukra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ activity matched up with expectations and general market direction. Note that the data, which captures funds’ positions through Tuesday, 7 Jan...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trying to Find New Ranges
The CBOT saw more bullish influences on Monday from Friday’s WASDE report in which USDA slashed the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields. After considering the numbers and implications over the weekend, traders decided there was enough demand for both products and, if USDA’s latest numbers are cor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.8/short ton, up $9.5 from yester...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatWith week-on-week progress of 3.5 percentage points, Argentina’s wheat harvest has reached 98 percent of the area and is nearing completion. Total production is expected to reach approximately 18.5 MMT.Markets have shown few updates, and local wheat prices remain nearly unchanged. As a res...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the Balkans and Ukraine saw unseasonably warm weather with moderate rainfall while Russia saw cold weather with light precipitation. The current forecasts call for cooler temperatures in France and Spain, but warmth in the UK and from Poland eastward (with the exce...
Market Commentary: Big Bullish Whopper
This last trading day of the first full trading week of 2025 came in like a whimper and went out with a bang. The trading day started with a notably sub-par Export Sales report from USDA. New commitments for wheat, corn, and soybeans all hit a marketing year low for export sales last week...
Updated: The Historic Context for January WASDE Yield Surprises
Errata: The original version of this article incorrectly state the January 2018 soybean yield estimate at 50.6 BPA, instead of the true February (which made up for the delayed January report) estimate of 51.6 BPA. All statistics related to this yield estimate and charts/tables have been correct...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.705/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, up $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 27, 2024 – January 2, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 111,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 21 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 414,300 MT were up 9 percent f...
WASDE Soybeans Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for U.S. soybean production is down 95 million bushels to 4.366 billion bushels due to a 1 bushel per acre yield reduction – to average U.S. soybean yield of 50.7 bushels per acre. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, un...
Oilseed Highlights
The Market Soybean futures have largely been waiting for the January WASDE report, which USDA will publish on today, with traders specifically focusing on the South American supply outlooks. The dry weather in Argentina has been largely offset by favorable conditions in Brazil, leaving the...
Market Commentary: Big Nothingburger
It was a good thing that futures markets closed early today given that there were very few inputs to guide movements. The U.S. government was closed in observance of President Jimmy Carter’s memorial, so reports like weekly Export Sales are delayed until tomorrow. Wall Street and the...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $299.3/short ton, down $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Comfortable, With Jitters
There was generally low volume in grains today as traders await USDA’s important reports on Friday. There is no reason to spend more money on fees or commissions after spending several days aligning with the perceived outcomes. At the same time, market noise does not completely stop and there i...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3625/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.8/short ton, down $2.7 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 December 2024 – 3 January 2025As of the end of 2024, Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) statistics show “preliminary” grain crop size at 124.96 MMT without including occupied territories of Ukraine, but including annexed Crimea. RosStat can issue “preliminary” updates...
Market Commentary: No Major Swings on More Positioning Ahead of WASDE
Corn opened lower but managed a quarter penny higher close, and hogs tried to follow cattle higher at the open but ended lower for a third session in a row, but the rest of the pack ended the day where it started with equally small changes.Fundamentals are helping corn, wheat and cattle, and so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.58/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.5/short ton, down $3.8 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt will see the investment of $100 million by China’s New Hope Group in the expansion of its animal feed operations. New Hope currently has five production facilities in Egypt producing 650,000 MT of animal feeds which will be increas...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Precipitation Forecasts Fall
The CBOT tried – and mostly succeeded – to reverse Friday’s selloff with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all turning higher to start the first full trading week of 2025. The fundamental catalysts for the day’s strength were the slide in the U.S. dollar, thanks to more trade-friendly (or at lea...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9775/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.3/short ton, down $1.3 from yes...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
2025 Outlook Last year was extremely challenging for Argentine agriculture, with sharp declines in commodity prices exacerbating the situation in recent months. The exchange rate has shifted from approximately 800 ARS/USD to 1,030 ARS/USD, while high dollar inflation has significantly incr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.6/short ton, down $11...
Market Commentary: 2025 Brings Corrections for Overbought Futures
The CBOT started 2025 on a relatively strong note, but any hints of bullishness were largely erased on Friday. Ag markets across the board fell sharply on the second trading day of the new year with weak export data, South American weather, and changes on taxes on trading profits driving much o...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 20-26, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 140,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 77 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 381,900 MT were up 2 percent from the previous...
Market Commentary: New Year, Same Trend - Corn and Beans Higher, Wheat Not
Corn and soybeans opened lower but quickly shifted back to positive territory. All three wheats were lower in overnight trading and pretty much traded lower all during the day session. There was good volume trading in HRW, cattle and feeders. March feeder cattle hit a new contract high. Lean ho...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $319.9/short ton, up $3 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Year End Rally in Corn and Beans
The day’s trading started out hum and glum. Corn and soybean contracts moved modestly like their overnight closes and stayed marginal for most of the day. Soyoil was continuing its recent mostly negative run. Wheat never went anywhere important, high or low. Then there was a breakout late...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.515/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, up $5.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Year-End Maneuvering
On this penultimate day of trading in 2024, there were ups, downs and perhaps some profit-taking. Like the overnight, grains and soybeans opened higher this morning. However, by late morning most contracts dipped lower and then the soy complex, SRW and HRW managed to snag a higher close at the...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, up $1.3 from...
Export Sales Bouy Grains; Argy Weather, Slow Exports Sink Soybeans
Grain markets were quiet in Friday’s overnight trade despite the bullish technical days they scored on Thursday. The Export Sales report – as one of the few fundamental updates available for the day – was influential in determining the grain markets’ direction for the day. That meant support fo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.465/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $310.5/short ton, down $4.4 from y...
Argentine Weather Emboldens CBOT Bulls
The CBOT found its way to higher ground on Thursday after an old-school hard opening with no overnight session to guide the market. Argentina’s weather is starting to become more impactful for grain futures as dryness persists into the mid-January forecast, which could disrupt early corn and so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314.9/short ton, up $13.3 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 December 2024Last week, the Russian grain markets showed the first signs of the holiday season with rather weak trading. Russian grain markets and especially export business will adjust to the Christmas season globally which will then enter Russian Orthodox Christ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7525/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Consolidate in Pre-Christmas Trade
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal closed higher ahead of the Christmas holiday, driven by short covering, technical factors, and increasing dryness in Argentina. Trading volume was predictably light on Christmas Eve, as traders showed little interest in adding risk during the seasonal trading slowdow...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey has revised its wheat import rules for flour millers – millers can now import up to 25 percent of their wheat supply, up from 15 percent. The remaining 75 percent must be purchased from TMO, the government’s grain company. The cha...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Corn followed the wheat market higher with its own support from the strong export program as USDA reported more “flash” export sales Monday. S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.695/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $4.2 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatOver the past seven days, the lack of rain allowed a 12.2-percentage-point increase in Argentina’s wheat harvest progress, which reached 76.1 percent of the area. Harvesting activities have focused on central and western Buenos Aires Province. Meanwhile, wheat commercialization and truck a...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT announced at the EEU meeting last month. Milling Wheat Global wheat markets continue to see pressure from slowing U.S. exports an...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.745/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302.2/short ton, up $11.2 from yesterday...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipment for December 6-12, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 457,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 58 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 405,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 49 percent from th...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not oversold technically, but with values sitting on or near major support levels, many traders figured this was the time to take short risk off t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.63/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $4.9 from yeste...
Oilseed Highlights: Confluence of Bearish Factors
The MarketAfter hitting a four year low including a contract low of 947/bushel yesterday, the March contract bounced back 13.25 cents in today’s trading. Bears are targeting $9/soybeans but today’s bounce indicates technical factors will make that a challenging target before year's end. However...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.5175/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $7.7...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 December 2024Russian grain markets remained relatively stable but, in some areas, especially export platform, prices were bearish. Part of the reason behind a bearish trend is the potential decrease of stocks. As of early December, stocks of agricultural companies...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and wheat flirting with contract lows. Not even the news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations and Spain...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7675/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt is rumored to be considering further devaluation of its currency against the U.S. dollar. The Egyptian pound has slipped a little in value to 51 to the U.S. dollar, from 48 to the dollar. However, Egypt’s Prime Minister says that t...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest recorded a week-on-week progress of 15.8 percentage points and reached 63.9 percent of the total area. Yields remain generally good and, in some cases, surpass initial expectations, prompting upward revisions to production estimates. The market projects 18–1...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.82/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $0.7 from yeste...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, a vessel rammed a lock on the Moselle River in Germany, which led Euronext to suspend delivery at French delivery ports on the river for February 2025. The damage was sufficient that initial estimates cited “months” to repair the lock, but more recent news indicate...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume declined this week and, barring some surprise, will be even lower through the holidays. There was nothing unlucky about Friday the 13th, unl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.2/short ton, down $3.3 f...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all on the low end of expectations and below last week’s values, which prompted traders to abandon (temporarily, at le...
Oilseed Highlights: Limping Along
The MarketSoybean futures continue their steady, narrow-range trading. South America is the big unknown and hedging both upside and downside risk means hovering right where we are. Soybean export sales last week were the second lowest of the marketing year, indicating buyers see lower prices ah...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 29-December 5, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 290,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 198,900 MT were down 38 percent from the previous week and 33 perc...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm Following Bullish WASDE; Cattle Extend Rally
Grain futures continued to find support from Tuesday’s bullish WASDE report with corn, wheat, and soybeans all trading higher, though corn futures dipped into the red during the final minutes of trading. Traders followed through on the bullish signals from the WASDE as well as increasingly bull...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6325/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.955/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.9 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 December 2024Export duties were the key driver followed by forex and increased freight costs for rail deliveries which are the main channel of grain delivery to the ports both from Russian territory and occupied territories of Ukraine. Before, freight was not a majo...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Market Commentary: WASDE Increases Corn, Soyoil Demand; Cattle Rally on Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the WASDE as funds were cautiously covering shorts and paring back risk before the holidays. The WASDE proved to be slightly bullish corn and mostly neutral soybeans and wheat, proving the short-covering trend to have been a good idea. Aside from the WASD...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $292/short ton, up $2.4 from yester...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONAn Egyptian military organization has reportedly taken over the wheat purchasing responsibility of Egypt’s GASC. Mostakbal Misr Agency, an armed forces offshoot, is said to now be fully responsible as the exclusive organi...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Ahead of the WASDE
The CBOT saw mostly WASDE-motivated short covering on Monday with funds scaling back short positions in wheat and soybeans and cautiously extending longs in the corn market. Fresh news was light for the day and traders were mostly focused on adjusting positions ahead of the WASDE. The weather r...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine wheat harvest has reached 48.1 percent of the expected area, with weekly progress of 9.4 percentage points, with efforts primarily focused in the central agricultural region. Standing crops are transitioning from late grain filling to physiological maturity, with 80.7 p...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU and Mercosur trade blocs finally signed a free trade agreement that had been delayed and debated for 25 years or so. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heralded the agreement in a press conference in Montevideo and cited the need for more free trade in the fa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday season. Corn’s range-bound trade these past two weeks prompted funds to shed 13 percent of their long position in the market and have liquida...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.4/short ton, down $3.7 from yesterda...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectations for consumption of renewable diesel and biodiesel. This fact is likely well known by WPI readers, though the details of what exactly ha...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Higher on Export Data
The CBOT moved higher on Thursday after the weekly Export Sales report provided bullish demand-side inputs for the major commodities. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil futures all pushed higher for the day with export demand seeming to pick up and remain above expectations in the case of corn,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from yesterda...
Oilseed Highlights: Hovering Lower but Holding Steady
MarketAfter four sessions of yoyoing up and down on lower volume, January soybeans are rangebound and net 4.25 cents higher thus far this week. There have been no fundamental changes and that leaves traders comfortable with where things stand. Going more bearish would be getting out in front of...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 22-28, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 378,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 322,400 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week, but up 1...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat; Cattle Contemplate their Direction
The CBOT continued its mostly range-bound trading affair on Wednesday with the ag markets seeing little fresh news to drive price action one way or another. Wheat futures hit new contract lows but recovered from that selloff to end slightly higher, though the market seems committed to staying n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 26 November, Russian farmers produced 132 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 19.3 MMT less than a year ago. This is with the crop harvested from 97.7 percent of the area yielding only 2.82 M/ha versus 3.16/MT a year ago. Grain yields...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8375/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.5 from y...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trade Yields Few Gains; Cattle Continue Rally
The CBOT saw firmer trade on Tuesday, but that strength failed to develop into anything really meaningful on the charts. The soy complex saw the most widespread strength on the heels of a record-breaking U.S. crush in November, as reported by the USDA on Monday, and from Tuesday’s rally in crud...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3225/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $290.4/short ton, up $2.5 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONIraq’s grain import requirements for 2024/25 are expected to be lower according to the FAO as a result of the good 2023/24 wheat crop. Wheat imports are seen dropping by 23 percent to about 1.8 MMT. Iraq has also added a...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the oilseed complex more broadly – are seeing pressure from excellent conditions in South America as well as the political ramifications of Presi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
November Rainfall and Crop Impacts in ArgentinaRecent rains have brought significant rain accumulation for Argentina, with precipitation in November exceeding the historical monthly average in most areas. After three years of severe drought, the rainfall is a welcome development for soil moistu...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8525/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.9/short ton, down $4 f...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia announced last week that it will impose its now-typical export quota on grains from 15 February though 30 June 2025. This year’s quota will be reduced to 11 MMT, or about one-third of last year’s 29-MMT quota. During the quota period, no shipments of corn, barley, and...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 15-21, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 366,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 433,800 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 89 perc...
Market Commentary: Holiday Thinned but Notable Trade
With no overnight trading for comparison and shortened trading hours today, volume was low and there were no dramatic shifts. Friday’s agricultural futures trading mostly reinforced current trends. Those include:Trading this week lopped off the most value from wheat and lean hogsThe March HRW c...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.33/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.895/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $3.5 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $295.4/short ton, up $4 from yesterday...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18 – 22 November 2024Russian Vice Premier Dmitri Patrushev is confident that Russia will export up to 60 MMT of grains this season. According to Mr. Patrushev, the gross grain production this season will reach 130 MMT in standard weight, of which 83 MMT is wheat. The Vice...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.58/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $4.5 from...