FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 15 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 November 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets were mixed this week with Capes rising while Supramax vessel rates declined yet again. The Capesize sector found support from China’s recent efforts to stockpile coal and iron ore, but this support has not yet t...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outlook. Notably, soymeal prices have slumped $30/MT lower since early October and are hovering near contract lows just below the $300 mark. Conve...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent strength in U.S. soyoil and soymeal prices has helped push “board” crush margin (i.e., the margin implied or calculated by CBOT futures contracts) to new highs with the VVX margin hitting $1.62/bushel and the HHH margins topping the $1.45 mark for the first time in over a...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Coffee Rally Stalls as Weather Shifts, Bear Move Ahead?
Coffee futures have been on a massive rally in 2024 with the ICE “C” contract rising above $2.60/lb last week, breaching that point for just the fifth time since 1970. The catalyst for the rally has been well reported this year, with declining stocks and weather issues in major prod...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Recent rains have benefited parts of Argentina, but not all areas received significant precipitation. The highest accumulations occurred in the central-east and southern regions of Buenos Aires Province, with 30–50 mm recorded. However, the provinces of Córdoba, Santa...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle and Beef Imports
High cattle and beef prices are supporting imports. First, cattle imports through July are up 22.6 percent compared to last year. Imports from Canada are up 18.1 percent and imports from Mexico have increased 25.2 percent over the same period. This trend of increased imports certai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Broad-based September Rally
The CBOT was higher once again with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soymeal all scoring new rally highs and bullish technical victories. In wheat in particular, fund managers are working hard to cover shorts as the technical outlook rapidly shifts bullish, which has driven much of this week’s...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on the defensive amid the ongoing pricing malaise affecting nearly every major exporter. The Paris wheat market is particularly beleaguered righ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and Entre Ríos. The central and southeastern parts of Buenos Aires received similar amounts on 21 August. However, most of the core agri...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Currently, 85 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is in normal to good condition, reflecting a nearly 10 percent decline from the previous week. Recent rains benefited many areas, but a significant portion of the wheat has not received rain for several weeks and is showing signs...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores Bullish Reversal; WASDE Confirms Soy’s Bearish Outlook
The WASDE held more than a few surprises on Monday with USDA offering hope for the beleaguered corn market to the extent that futures posted a bullish key reversal on the chart. If the soybean market was hoping for similar aid, it received none, and the WADSE was deeply bearish with a record-br...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After several weeks of waiting, rain finally fell over much of Argentina’s wheat-planted area, bringing relief to many producers. However, some regions, including the northern core zone, western Buenos Aires, and the northern agricultural region, received little to no rain. In...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Make New Lows; Corn, Wheat Fall on WASDE Supply Expectations
The CBOT was once again mostly red for the day with traders preparing for the August WASDE and generally expecting large crops and ending stocks for the 2024/25 year. The Midwest weather remains nearly ideal for producing big crops, and the only real question is how harvested acreage will impac...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Cattle and Beef Markets and Brazil’s Cattle
This past week’s slaughter at 593,000 was down 7,000 head from the previous week and down 22,000 from last year. The fed cattle portion of the weekly slaughter continues to make a larger percentage of the total slaughter than prior years with cow slaughter of both dairy and beef cows in d...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Weather, Crop Ratings; Wheat Firms on EU Worries
If Monday’s trade as all about the macro market meltdown, then Tuesday’s trade was about returning to normal. Global equity, bond, and currency markets mostly reversed course on Tuesday and pared back some of the massive losses they incurred over the past three trading sessions. Tha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the wheat planting has ended with a total seeded area of 6.3 Mha, aligning it with other private estimates of 6.3–6.4 Mha. In certain regions, some fields were not planted due to a lack of soil moisture, and with current prices, it is not worth t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat planting reached 98.5 percent of the expected 6.3 Mha last week, with some localized rains allowing producers to advance planting. However, the lack of water and frost damage to tissues caused the crop condition t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Weather Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hours. This extreme weather impacts various crops. For maize still standing in the field, the cold aids in drying and thus speeds up the harves...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double
Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Stabilize while Soy Complex, Livestock Collapse Further
Trade at the CBOT was highly mixed across the different market categories Tuesday with grains (corn and wheat) seeing mild gains and signs of pre-WASDE stability emerge while oilseeds and livestock futures sold off sharply again. The vegoil rally that last week’s tensions between Indonesi...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are the lack of surface soil moisture in the central and northern agricultural areas, and excess moisture in the south. Fifteen percent of the es...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Projections made by NOAA on 20 June for the rest of the year show, for the third consecutive month, a decrease in the predicted cooling of the sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific compared to what was calculated in March this year. This indicates that the intensity...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Turnaround; Hog Selloff Continues; Cattle Shrug Off COF Report
Trade at the CBOT was dynamic and interesting on Monday with early-day weakness sending wheat, corn, and soybeans all to fresh lows while late-day short-covering and buying pulled the latter two markets higher. Soybeans scored double-digit gains for the day while the corn market could only mana...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat It was a short trading week in Argentina with holidays on Monday, Thursday, and Friday and the CBOT being closed on Wednesday, all of which led to low activity for the week. Origination and FOB markets were quiet for both corn and wheat. Presently, with a weekly progress of almost 2...
Market Commentary: Grain Rally Fades; Soybeans Try for Recovery; Bearish COF Numbers
The CBOT was mixed to close the week with traders seeming to take a break after this week’s generally bearish price action. There was notable short profit taking that helped the soy complex, while corn and wheat continued to drift lower amid weak technicals and bearish fundamental sentime...
Market Commentary: Still Looking for that Inevitable Bottom
Today, everything bled red except live cattle. Generally favorable U.S. weather overhangs the market until USDA’s Acreage Report is issued next week on 28 June. Nothing is tanking as much as wheat, with Paris now entering oversold territory and July HRS hitting a new contract low...
Market Commentary: No Threats so Hedging Bearish
Final planted numbers are unknown until late this month and the spread on that outcome is wide, but weather is only a theoretical threat to what could be a big U.S. crop. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report was released after the market close, but the crop conditions were already viewed as...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting is progressing rapidly. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 43 percent of the estimated 6.2 Mha have been sown. The Rosario Grain Exchange is slightly more optimistic, estimating an area of 6.9 Mha, and a production of 21 MMT. The market, in general, is taking a m...
Market Commentary: Ignoring Weather, Modest Volume Sees Mostly Red
Grains and soybeans followed the overnight close by trading lower at the open. The early stretch just saw fractional declines but later in the morning, corn and soybeans took deeper dives. Volumes were modest to lower, except in cattle futures. Despite expectations that the current hotter, drie...
Market Commentary: Some Higher Closes on Sideways Trade
Corn, the soybean complex and SRW all closed higher on the day with Kansas City and Minneapolis fractionally lower. For the trading week thus far, July corn is up 9.75 cents (2.1 percent), July soybeans are 10.25 cents higher (0.8 percent), and July SRW is down 7.5 cents (-1.1 percent). ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course, Corn and Soy Quiet Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT’s trade was primarily focused on last-minute preparation and positioning for the WASDE, which USDA will release at Noon ET on Wednesday. That meant corn and soybeans saw more selling pressure as expectations call for larger U.S. crops and ending stocks for the coming year. Wheat,...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Accelerates; Corn, Soy Stabilized Before WASDE; Cattle and Hogs Diverge
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with corn and the soy complex seeing some cautious support, mostly concentrated in old crop markets, while the massive selloff in wheat continued with funds eagerly selling into the weakness. One feature of the day’s trade was the Goldman roll, which h...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn This week, the Argentine government confirmed that the sworn export sales declarations (DJVE) will not be extended, unlike the previous administration. Exporters must ship a minimum of 26 MMT by January 2025. Between June, July, and August alone, DJVEs account for 8.7 MMT, with an addition...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off a New Floor
Corn, soybeans, and wheat were both higher in the overnight session and added to that mood today except only HRW amongst the wheats held on to gains. For corn and soybeans, today broke a seven consecutive session losing streak, and HRW ended a six-session losing streak. Some in the trade...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Data Pressures CBOT; Hogs Collapse on Demand Worries
The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. There are certainly some areas of concern and potential for some acres to be planted to soybeans at the last minute, but the overall outlook is...
Market Commentary: Shifting Weather Implies Sideways Wheat Trade, Lower Outlook for Corn, Soy
The CBOT was almost strictly lower to start the new month with corn and soybeans leading the way on expectations (that were proved correct) of strong planting progress last week. Wheat futures tried to rally in early trade, but the corn and soy complex weakness pulled that market lower with add...
No Mimosas
Brazil produces more than a third of the world’s oranges and controls 70 percent of global exports. This drought, plus disease and other issues has caused production to fall by nearly a quarter. As a result, prices have spiked. It may not be a proxy for soybeans and corn since oranges are...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Determining how much wheat will be planted in Argentina is difficult. Production margins have gone from very bad to very good, thereby encouraging producers to change their minds about planting intentions. An increase in area is certain; in fact, the top market seed varieties are al...
Market Commentary: Markets Enter May like a Lion, Leave as a Lamb
Usually, it’s the month of March that comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb, but commodity markets chose to follow that pattern in May, which creates an interesting summer outlook. With Friday’s trade concluding the month of May, it’s notable that the major ag markets al...
Market Commentary: Pigs Fly, the Rest Swim
The market open is very telltale about the trade’s beliefs. It can open hard and fast in one direction or another, or it can move in small increments back and forth, reflecting less certainty about the direction. The latter was the case this morning involving corn and soybeans. By contras...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Move to Trading Range Lows; Wheat Falls on Black Sea Rain
Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting progress, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and rains forecast for the Black Sea region this week. Corn and soybeans primarily saw their weakness de...
Market Commentary: Weather Continues to Drive CBOT Strength; Meat Stocks Tighten Further
Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South America over the coming three-day holiday weekend. Weather concerns for planting the 2024 U.S. crops are lingering despite strong progress to da...
Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans
Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, slower than WPI expected. It currently spans 25 percent of the area, which implies an 8 percent delay compared to the five-year average. The progress is slowed as combines are still fully engaged in harvesting soybeans and...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...
Brazil Leans into Meat
Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn production this year could be down almost 10 percent from a year ago, and USDA’s latest forecast has 2024/25 output down 7.2 percent from 2022/...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop
In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerned about Northern Hemisphere weather. Monday’s trade was seemingly primarily focused on the dryness and recent frost/freeze events in c...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major floods. There are many dead, injured, and evacuated individuals. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 50 percent of the country's wheat pro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads WASDE-Defying CBOT Rally
The CBOT was higher heading into Friday’s May WASDE report from the USDA with weather and production concerns in various parts of the globe driving futures into the green. The WASDE didn’t really support an outlook for higher trade/prices, but the CBOT rallied anyway after the repor...
Market Commentary: Weather and Old versus New Crop
The trade continued to position ahead of tomorrow’s May USDA WASDE report. Some took profits as they backed out of positions but, overall, there was lower volume. The exception being soyoil where a new July contract low was printed. Adverse South American crop weather supports old crop v...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Contract on More Pre-WASDE Positioning
Grain futures continue to retreat from their recent rally highs with traders unwilling to overextend risks heading into Friday’s WASDE report. The WASDE should be supportive old crop futures from cuts to the Brazilian and Argentine crops, but new crop futures could see pressure from expec...
Market Commentary: Traders Pause CBOT Rally While Eyeing WASDE
The grain market fundamentals didn’t change much from Monday to Tuesday, but traders largely suspended their short-covering or long-positioning efforts as they looked ahead to the May WASDE. The report will be issued this Friday and will include USDA’s first projections for MY 2024/...
Market Commentary: Bulls Are Running Again
Bulls remain firmly in charge of CBOT ag trade with weather concerns seemingly around the world prompting short covering and fresh long buying. Wheat and soybeans were the upside leaders at the CBOT once again as these two commodities hold the most bullish weather implications. Corn was largely...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Currently, Argentine farmers have harvested 22 percent of the corn area, with a weekly progress of only 2.3 percent. While soybean harvesting takes precedence and progresses much faster, farmers are only now able to enter some fields after the rains of the past few weeks. The Buenos Aires...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher on Weather
After days of flat to faltering closes, corn and soybeans have now rebounded the past two days, and today wheat joined the rally. In two days, July corn has gained 13 cents and July soybeans are up 36 cents. USDA’s Export Sales report showed old crop washouts and lower actual expor...
Market Commentary: CBOT Remains Choppy, Volatile as Weather Drives Markets
The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third straight day amid more forecasts of showers for previously dry production regions. The soy complex recovered a bit from Tuesday’s sellof...
Market Commentary: Wheat Pulls Back from Weather Rally; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with wheat futures (except the MGEX market) pulling back amid profit taking and a general feeling of a correction after their recent rally. The soy complex, on the other hand, saw a strong rally in soymeal as the plight of the Argentine crop is bolster...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest only advanced by 2 percentage points last week as the rains show no mercy, making it difficult for farmers to enter the fields. Moreover, the focus of those who can enter fields remains on soybeans, which are typically harvested as soon as possible and take p...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Nearing a Ceiling
Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat higher for a seventh straight session, and pork finally took a fall. There was high volume trading in corn today but without any strong fee...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Weather Rally; Corn, Soybeans Steady While Eyeing Weather
Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and the Black Sea. Until a few weeks ago, there were few doubts about the 2024 crop being able to supply the expected demand, but now reduced yi...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains to Close Week; Wheat Firms on Bullish News
The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supportive development in the IGC’s lower 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast, dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains, and smaller Russian 2024...
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
Market Commentary: Grains Shake off WASDE Blues on Weather Concerns; Livestock Futures Collapse Again
Trade in ag futures saw greatly diverging trends on Friday with the grains and oilseeds markets strengthening after Thursday’s relatively bearish WASDE report while livestock markets collapsed further. The grain market saw support from more news of large U.S. soybean export sales –...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Market Commentary: Small But Bearish Changes
When you see a bear, start backward charging, and that is what corn, beans, and wheat did today. The Board was under pressure ahead of the release of USDA’S April WASDE report and while few changes were expected in the report, and few were made, the ones announced reinforced the bearish t...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Positioning, Crop Conditions, Weather Forecasts Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with traders increasingly focused on preparing for Thursday’s WASDE report amid little fresh news. Declining crude oil prices pulled the soy complex lower as did slight upward revisions from private firms for the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There is much talk about Argentina’s new wheat campaign outlook that mostly centers on the uncertainty regarding planted area. The consensus right now, however, is that the 2024/25 area will decrease from the prior year. Seed and input sales for planting are lagging last year’...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Overnight and Vegoils Extend Rally
The CBOT started the overnight session on a strong note with solid volume and most markets heading into the green. Fresh fundamental news was light and it seems most of the day’s trade was due to short covering, spillover support from the vegoil and crude oil markets, and light commercial...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week without rain, Argentina’s corn harvest gained momentum and reached nearly 6 percent of the area. This had the consequent effect of increasing truck arrivals at ports, which was a relief for exporters who face a vessel lineup of 1.8 MMT of corn. Argentina has already expo...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally
The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast of Argentina’s corn harvest estimate by 2.5 MMT down to 54 MMT last week. The main reasons are the February heatwave (which affected the mid- and late-season corn), excessive rainfall, and inclement weather that caused yield losses...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on Vegoil Strength; Record Cow-Calf Profits Forecast for 2024
The CBOT largely reversed the trends of the prior two days as wheat futures pulled back while the soy complex jumped to sharp gains and the corn market saw quiet strength. The soy complex is reacting to growing strength in broader vegoil markets, especially Malaysian palm oil, and that fundamen...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains Continue while Corn, Soy Slide Sideways
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with traders consolidating positions ahead of next week’s Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports. Fresh fundamental news was light, which left corn and the soy complex to drift sideways/lower while wheat futures pushed higher with support comi...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Brazil’s Meat Opportunity
Brazil has famously surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, and it could become a more consistent top exporter of corn. However, its livestock production lags. Brazil’s soybean production has been expanding at an average 5.5 percent per year, and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Intense rains have fallen over practically all of Argentina’s agricultural region in the last few days, delaying the corn harvest. The reported weekly progress was only 1 percent, and the total harvested area stands at only 3.2 percent. Several days of good weather will be nece...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s early corn harvest has begun in various regions of the country with good yields, although it's too early to draw conclusions as the harvested area has only reached 2 percent of the total area. While one should expect the harvest to pick up speed in the coming days, the fo...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
Market Commentary: Interesting Trade Despite Few WASDE Changes
The CBOT posted interesting developments on Friday, even while the March WASDE report failed to offer the same intrigue. The USDA’s latest look at U.S. and world supply and demand fundamentals was largely a “steady as she goes” affair with few significant changes. Despite the...
Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE
With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW. Tomorrow will see the release...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Market Commentary: South American Rains, Export Competition Push CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with wheat leading the way on new contract lows in Paris wheat and aggressive competition from Ukraine and Russia on the export market. CBOT wheat also scored new contract lows as traders again piled into short positions on the emerging technical weakness. Corn...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is going through a challenging time in Argentina. The decline in prices, both in the local and export markets, has been constant over the last few months and has pushed values to levels that are very difficult for producers to absorb. Currently, in the local market, transactions are...
Market Commentary: Next Week Won’t Be Boring as Wheat, Corn Pull Back and Soybeans Rise
The CBOT was mixed to end the week and start the month of March with livestock futures extending their rallies amid strong fundamentals. Grain trade, however, was less decisive with wheat futures dropping sharply lower amid greater competition from Ukraine and a bearish breakdown in technical c...
Market Commentary: Higher CBOT and Corn Reversal Deny Long-Run Bearish Outlook
The CBOT turned mostly higher to start the week amid some bullish fundamental developments and funds covering shorts after the market’s recent and wildly profitable plunge lower. Corn was the upside leader with the May contract posting a bullish key reversal on the chart as export inspect...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Following the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, expectations for increased soybean demand from China were not met, resulting in a lower-than-anticipated purchase volume. There was still some activity, however, and last week Brazil saw movement for March...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Short-Covering, Value Buying
The CBOT turned sharply higher after the three-day weekend with wheat leading the way on a surge in buying interest. Paris wheat started the rally with contracts there rebounded from new contract lows, and that strength spilled over into CBOT and KCBT futures as well. While little clear motivat...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise
Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It is expected that extreme temperatures recorded in Argentina over the past fifteen days may reduce the corn crop’s yield potential, primarily in late-maturing corn (to be evaluated in the coming weeks). Currently, 53 percent of that crop is going through its critical period for yie...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Firm in Early Week Trade; Russia Lowers “Suggested” Wheat Price
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman roll concluded its fourth day on Monday, which helped drive some of the day’s trade, though roll volume was far below Friday’s...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores New Contract Lows; CBOT Relegated to Sideways/Lower Trade
Post-WASDE trade saw the CBOT markets largely continue their former trends with the February report – as usual – offering only minor adjustments to the supply and demand picture. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was the fall to new contract lows in corn futures as shorts continue...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Market Commentary: A Day of New Numbers
It might have been a day of big surprises given the number of new crop estimates being issued around the world. Governments in China, Brazil, Canada, and the U.S. all issued new forecasts, but the overall changes were relatively small. The result was a mixed day in U.S. futures markets. Volume...
Market Commentary: Bears Pile into Corn Ahead of WASDE; Other Markets Pause Before Report
Typically, trading the day before a major USDA report – including the WASDE – is muted and that statement held true for all but one commodity on Wednesday. The exception to the rule was corn where the market dropped to fresh contract lows in moderately heavy volume with bearish sent...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls on Early Selling; Wheat Continues Sideways March; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ag markets spent most of Tuesday preparing for the coming February WASDE report with funds and commercials adjusting positions. Wheat futures saw mild strength amid their relentless grid sideways while the soy complex found some upside traction in follow-through trade from Monday&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink, Soy Complex Rallies to Start Week; USD Rally Threatens Exports
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with the soy complex posting a bullish turnaround on stronger-than-expected export inspections and rising soymeal demand. Wheat futures drifted lower and maintained their sideways ranges with pressure from the Matif market helping pull prices into the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Like every other low-production year, the dynamics of Argentina’s FOB market are greatly reduced. On the one hand, there are fewer destinations where Argentina can compete and, on the other, there is less positioning by trading houses. In the current wheat campaign (December and Jan...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Meat Up Over Corn and Beans
Markets opened like the overnight, all flashing red except for cattle. Then at mid-morning wheat started flashing green. SRW, HRS and cattle hung on to close higher, while corn and the soy complex proved that Tuesday’s gains were just a dead cat bounce in an otherwise ongoing trend lower...
Market Commentary: Grains Turnaround Fizzles; Soymeal Surges on Domestic Demand
The CBOT saw mixed trade on Wednesday as the grain markets (corn and wheat) failed to follow through on Tuesday’s reversal and instead either sank lower or ended essentially unchanged while the soy complex continued Tuesday’s show of strength. Soymeal was the upside leader in the so...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday – Dead Cat Bounce or Trend Reversal?
The CBOT posted a decisive Turnaround Tuesday with the soy complex, corn, and wheat all turning sharply higher and scoring bullish days on the charts. The odd thing was that the day’s rally came without clear fundamental justification, with the only really bullish story being Argentina&rs...
Market Commentary: China Economic Worries Shake Grain Markets, Soybeans End Below $12, Corn at $4.40
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with commodity and macroeconomic markets under pressure from bearish economic news in China. Over the weekend, a court ordered China’s largest real estate developer, Evergrande, to liquidate amid the ongoing bankruptcy. That sent bearish ripples...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The quality issues (low test weight) in Argentina’s wheat that WPI has noted in recent weeks now seems to be quite localized in the Southwest of Buenos Aires province, near the port of Bahia Blanca. Nevertheless, there doesn't seem to be a current need for exporters to go out and se...
Market Commentary: China Approval of Argentine Wheat Snaps Futures’ Winning Streak; Livestock Rally Accelerates
Grain/oilseed and livestock markets are currently headed in diverging directions – with commodities involving plants and tractors falling while commodities eating said plants rallying sharply. Soybeans were the downside leader at the CBOT after the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the Arg...
Market Commentary: Bull Wheat, Bear Beans; Corn Takes a Break
There was notably higher volume trading soybeans, soyoil, HRW, and beef today. Each driven by different factors; all appeared to be driven more by fundamentals than stochastic parrots. Export sales were generally lower than the prior week, except for soyoil, but were higher than th...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on China Buying Rumors, Spring Acres Estimates; Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly higher at midweek with grains – particularly wheat – leading the rally. Market chatter suggests China has returned to the U.S. to book SRW wheat, though we cannot find confirmation of such trades yet. Even so, the words “China buying” will create a ra...
Market Commentary: CBOT Higher on Short Covering, Bull Spreading; Hogs Post Technical Rally
The CBOT finished higher for the day with traders increasingly engaging in bottom-picking and hopeful that last week saw the grain market develop its near-term and seasonal lows. Grain and oilseed markets started the day session with noted strength, but only soybeans, soymeal, and KC wheat coul...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher, Creates Cautious Buying Cascade
The CBOT was mostly lower overnight with grain markets unable to find their footing after two bearish weeks and a weekend of favorable weather for Brazil and Argentina. The day session offered a bit of relief for bulls, however, with corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil finding their way to higher...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
2022/23 Crop Export Update The historic drought that impacted Argentina one year ago resulted in a drastic 38 percent decline in grain production during the 2022/23 season, reaching only 83.4 MMT, the lowest figure since 2008/09. This decline had a significant impact on agro-industrial shipment...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Still Bouncing
Thursday saw the start of a “dead cat bounce” for many oversold CBOT futures contracts, and that trend continued Friday. Corn and wheat futures finished higher for the day but posted the gains on unconvincing volume and with little in the way of meaningful technical developments. Th...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Bounce
After hitting new contract lows in corn and wheat again today, there was a turnaround led by wheat. However, without any change in the underlying fundamentals, it is difficult to call it new support. Since last Friday’s January WASDE report, March corn is down 13.75 cents, March soybeans...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Corn, Wheat; Cattle & Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with traders still reacting to the bearish implications of the January WASDE. For bulls, matters seem to keep getting worse as competion from South America continues to rise. Brazilian FOB offers for soybeans are plunging lower while the Rosario Grain Excha...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Drifting Lower into Planting Season?
The January WASDE and Grains Stocks reports are now past, but their impacts continued to drive CBOT price action to start the holiday-shortened week. Corn and wheat saw significant pressure from the WASDE’s bearish implications while soybeans saw two-sided trade under the bullish influenc...
Transatlantic Commonality; Argentina’s NTB’s
Transatlantic Commonality Politico’s senior foreign correspondent Nahal Toosi noted that ambassadors in Washington are warning that U.S. power and influence in the world is declining due to the nation’s intense partisan political divide. But it is not exactly glory days in Europe. F...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. soybean price by 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents. Global soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Shipping, Export Concerns Push CBOT Lower; WASDE Expectations and Forecasts
The CBOT turned lower with just two days before the January WASDE and Grain Stocks report after export prospects dimed following more terrorist attacks in the Red Sea. U.S. and British naval forces shot down 21 drones and missiles fired by Iranian-backed, Yemeni Houthi rebels on Tuesday in what...
Market Commentary: Grains Post Turnaround Tuesday; Lean Hog Technical Rally Continues
The CBOT posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with grain and oilseed markets finding their way to higher ground after two weeks of steadily lower trade. There was little fundamental reason for the day’s strength and most of the buying activity was short covering and position adjustin...
Market Commentary: No Rest for the Bullish
The CBOT followed its bearish drumbeat lower with corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal all logging steep declines for the day. Corn and Paris wheat futures scored a new contract low while soybeans drifted to their lowest level since June. Of course, the driver of the day’s weakness was more...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy and Macroeconomic Update There is discomfort among farmers in the Argentine countryside. The newly inaugurated Milei administration promised during its campaign measures that would favor producers, but for the moment is not fully keeping its word. Although the changes to the exchange rat...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Export Sales, Brazil Rains; Hogs Battle Industry Inelasticity
The CBOT saw corn and soybeans break lower overnight and extend that weakness in the day session with poor export sales data and favorable South American rains offering ample pressure. Corn futures scored a new contract low and are barley above three-year lows right now while the soybean market...
Brazil Politics and Generic Pesticides
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed into law a new pesticide registration statute that will benefit the approval of generic pesticides. The new law grants greater discretionary authority to the Ag Ministry in approving and overseeing pesticides. President Lula did u...
Market Commentary: And the Downward Beat Goes On
There was higher volume in SRW, HRW and lean hogs but overall volumes remained modest, and the export wire is quiet. The latter perhaps influenced by a strong dollar. This leaves ample room for bearish weather news to ricochet around the market. Thus far in this abbreviated first trading week o...
2023: A Look Back in Humor
Note, the following is an attempt to summarize 2023’s major developments in ag markets and U.S. and world politics while injecting humor. Obviously, not everything is 100% factually “correct” and we leave it to you to determine fact from (hopefully) humorous fiction. Jan...
Market Commentary: Greenback Pressures Wheat; Crude Rally Lifts Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT saw pressure for the second straight day with a four-day rebound in the U.S. dollar working against grain values. While the rising greenback pressured all markets, wheat was the only major ag market to end lower as the stronger currency highlights the export threat from Russia. Corn an...
Market Commentary: 2024 Trending Bearish Grains, Optimistic for Cattle
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened trading week with an old fashion hard open on Tuesday morning with no overnight trade to guide initial investment. That meant markets were slammed by sell orders stemming from weekend rains in Brazil and forecasts for more over the coming weeks. Soybeans g...
Market Commentary: Wheat Escapes Doldrums; Corn, Soy Complex Drift Lower
Except for wheat, the CBOT and CME’s major ag markets were uniformly lower in a relatively unexciting trading session Thursday. Wheat managed to escape the mid-holiday doldrums after news broke that a civilian bulk cargo vessel hit a Russian sea mine in the western Black Sea. The obvious...
Market Commentary: Post Holiday Flush
Traders must have gotten some cash in their Christmas stockings because there was a slight buying mood in the market today. Except for bean oil and pork, most contracts turned higher today. The reopening of the southern border and exports late on Friday no doubt flushed out one bearish pressure...
Market Commentary: Slow Day but Notable Reports for Next Week
Trading volumes today were down 40-50 percent in some commodities, but the bottom line was some exiting and losses from the week before an extended holiday period. The story line no doubt is improved weather in Brazil and the U.S. Midwest, transportation hurdles, and stiff competition from both...
Oilseed Highlights: Improving Weather and Challenging Logistics
The Market Oilseed markets have seen more pressure than support this week due to improved weather forecasts for Brazil and increasingly challenging global export and transportation logistics. Through Thursday’s close, March CBOT soybeans are down 2.2 percent (29¾ cents) since...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Shipping, Export Concerns Mount; Corn Finds New Lows
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure building from increasingly challenging shipping logistics around the world. The situation in the Panama Canal is well known but recent escalations in Middle East tensions and re-routing of ships around the Red Sea are causing more h...
Market Commentary: KCBT Wheat Upside Leader in Mixed Day; Livestock Futures Fall Ahead of Reports
Conflicting supply and demand factors resulted in mixed trade at the CBOT once again, but the surprise of the day was KCBT wheat’s 2.2 percent rally – a move that outshone other ag market trade. As discussed later in this report, there was little clear evidence for the KC market&rsq...
Ag Exports Not the Panacea
According to the FAO agricultural trade index, Africa has experienced the relatively largest jump in the past decade, followed by North and South America. Yet the share of global GDP for both Africa and South America remains low. Despite the boom in agricultural exports where it is now dominati...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Crush; Grains Dip on Slack Exports
The CBOT was mixed to start the last full trading week of 2023 with the soy complex rallying on the heels of last week’s NOPA crush report. The report featured the second-largest U.S. soybean crush in history, which helped push the soy complex higher for the day. Exports were a weight on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy Updates Argentina’s new government led by Javier Milei has begun and several new measures have been implemented. Despite being unpopular and restrictive, these measures promise to adjust the macroeconomic landscape over the coming months and eventually reduce inflation and free mar...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Slide Sideways; Wheat, Cattle Extend Rallies
Trade at the CBOT was mostly a low-volume affair heading into the weekend and there was a growing sense that, except for wheat and cattle, most of the week’s activity had already been completed. The soy complex was mixed as soybeans and soymeal were mostly lower while soyoil rallied on te...
Market Commentary: Fed Continues to Fuel Recovery
Today’s open followed last night’s close with corn, soybeans, and wheat all higher. The market subsequently dipped but only corn and soyoil failed to end the session in the green. Yesterday’s Federal Reserve statement indicating a likely end to interest rate hikes and potentia...
Market Commentary: Policy Front and Center for Commodity Trade
Macroeconomic and commodity market policy factors were front and center for the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, following the devaluation of the Argentine peso and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Both policy decisions came in as expected with the Fed holding rates unchanged...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Pulls Soy Complex Lower; Wheat Rises on Growing Demand
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In contrast, the wheat market managed to shrug off Monday’s dramatic declines and push higher with signs that world demand is starting to in...
Market Commentary: Trend Reversals to Start the Week
The CBOT’s Monday trade saw two notable reversals from the recent week’s trends. The first was the strength in soybean futures, which erased all last week’s losses on Monday due to more hot, dry weather for central and northern Brazil. The second reversal was in wheat where fu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Policy and Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s trading last week was shortened due to a national holiday on Friday. At the same time, it was the week before the newly elected President took office on Sunday, and expectations of a dramatically different approach to...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Cattle Find New Contract Lows
The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export sales to China, which boosted wheat futures initially, but there was a subsequent sense of reluctance to exit profitable short positions ahea...
Market Commentary: Second Day of SRW Sales to China Boosts Wheat; Pre-WASDE Consolidation Begins
Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upside leader for the past several sessions as a combination of growing bullish fundamentals and aggressive fund short covering lift the market...
Market Commentary: Rains Send Soy Complex Lower; China Sales, Short Covering Extend Wheat Rally
Rains in Brazil and Argentina heavily influenced the CBOT to start the week and sent the entire soy complex sharply lower. The precipitation also weighed on corn futures, which settled essentially unchanged, but was offset by the continuing rally in wheat futures. Wheat was again sharply higher...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving at high speed and advanced 10 percent last week, which put the total harvest above 35 percent of the area. Most fields are being harvested 7-10 days earlier than usual, which is why at this point last year the harvest was only 20 percent comple...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally, Soy Falls to End Volatile Week; Grain Crushing Report Bullish
The CBOT continued its mid-week trends into the week’s end with corn and wheat futures posting another higher day with short covering and technical, speculative buying offering support. The soy complex struggled for the day and all three components of the crush ended lower as the weekend...
Market Commentary: Exports versus Weather and Crude Oil
It was a mixed day for futures trading with corn and wheat rebounding from early week contract lows but the soy complex sliding lower on a weak petroleum market that dragged soyoil down with it. Weather added a bearish overlay as rains continue to be helpful for Argentina and the forecas...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows to Start the Week
Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, carving out new contract lows. There was no bullish news for wheat, cattle, or hogs, which led to a deluge of selling to start the week. The w...
Brazil’s Corn at Greater Risk than Soybeans
Analysts have noted the analog years for adverse El Niño impacts in Brazil as 2015/16 and 2020/21. As in those years, Brazil has had limited moisture and intense heat in major central and norther production areas. However, corn was more adversely impacted than soybeans in both of those p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics and Policy Argentina’s outgoing presidential administration’s first post-election measure was to increase the percentage of foreign currency that exporters can re-enter into the system through the free exchange market (financial dollar). Now, exporters can allocate 50...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as do Rains in Brazil; Livestock Futures Find Post-Holiday Selloff
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly lower to end the holiday-shortened week with favorable weather forecasts for Brazil pressuring the grains and oilseeds complex while cash market weakness sent livestock futures tumbling. Trading volume was above-average for most markets compared to most post...
Market Commentary: CBOT Edges Lower in Risk-Off, Pre-Holiday Trade
CBOT grain and oilseed futures were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders reduced risk ahead of Thursday’s market closure and the shortened trading day on Friday. While the dynamics of futures exchange trading hours played a role in the day’s trade, the general lack of fresh news was...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Climb on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Russian Attacks
Wheat futures were the exception to the CBOT’s trend-following trade on Tuesday, as the market rallied following another round of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports. The news sent wheat higher with CBOT futures up 10+ cents in a clear break from their recent trend lower. Corn and soybeans...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Overcomes Weak Start to Post Big Gains; Wheat Finds New Lows
The story of the CBOT was the sharply lower opening soybeans and soymeal suffered overnight, thanks to heavy rains in Brazil over the weekend. Those early losses, however, were fully erased by midday and both markets posted sharp gains due to China’s import program and the long-term outlo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine Policy Updates Last night, Argentina’s Liberal candidate for president, Javier Milei, was elected as the next President of Argentina and will assume his role on 10 December 2023. In his campaign, he promised to move the country’s economy to the U.S. dollar, eliminate expor...
Market Commentary: Wetter Brazil Forecast Sends Corn, Soy Lower; KC Wheat Hits 2-Year Low
Most of this week’s early rally in the grain and oilseed markets was justified by the challenging weather in Brazil. The weather has not only impacted the soybean first corn crops currently being planted, but also the planting prospects of the safrinha – or double-crop – corn...
Market Commentary: Good Exports but Brazilian Wildcard
The market was in the red across the board at the open and mostly stayed that way. The exceptions being corn and lean hogs. They broke to the upside late morning and while lean hogs wobbled, both were in the green at the close. Despite the downbeat of the past two sessions, corn and the s...
Market Commentary: Failed Turnaround Tuesday; Inflation Data Emboldens Markets
Bears tried to push the soy complex and corn lower in Tuesday’s early trade as they hoped for a correction following Monday’s rally. That was not to be, however, as the soy complex found strong buying interest from ongoing soymeal demand and sharp gains in Malaysian palm oil that pu...
Market Commentary: China Buying and Soymeal Demand Sends Soy Complex, Corn Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with sharp rallies in soymeal and soybeans creating spillover buying for the rest of the grain markets. Funds were active buyers in both markets with strong spot demand for soymeal driving that market’s rally while soybeans rallied on Chinese b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Thanks to the recent good weather, Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving from north to south and total harvest has reached 15 percent of the area. Yields are coming in below expectations, so the Rosario Grain Exchange again reduced its crop estimation from 14 to 13.5 MMT. Rains arr...
European Market Analysis
Through 9 November, Ukraine’s grain harvest reached 90 percent of the total area and spanned 9.84 million hectares (MHa). The total crop is 51.275 MMT, of which corn production has hit 21.22 MMT and the harvest is 72 percent complete. Sunflower seed production has hit 11.52 MMT and just 3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Quiet to End WASDE Week; Bullish South America Weather Looms
The WASDE’s bearish implications continued to push CBOT futures lower on Friday with funds finding little reason to abandon short positions in corn and wheat. The soybean market saw some gains to end the week, however, traders thought Thursday’s 20-cent, post-WASDE selloff, like man...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks, up 25 million on higher yields, to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price was reduced 2.0 cents to 61.0 cen...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks by 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel. This month’s 2023/24 global corn ending stocks, at 315.0 million tons, are up 2.6 million...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Market Commentary: Tweaks and Surprises
Futures closed mostly lower with USDA’s mid-session November WASDE report causing a drop-off on higher production and stocks. U.S. Wheat Increased imports by 10 million bushels. Raised ending stocks by 14 million bushels. Lowered the season average price by 10-cents to $7.20/bushe...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply Ahead of November WASDE
The November WASDE usually isn’t a major market-moving event, but you wouldn’t know that from how CBOT futures reacted just one day before the report. Wheat – the bearish laggard of the grain complex – jumped to 20+ cent gains at mid-week with little apparent reasoning...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Start Week Firm; Soybeans Rally as Technicals Lead Fundamentals?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with corn and wheat finding small gains on light buying interest while soybeans jumped higher on export demand and a rally in soyoil. Soyoil futures were nearly 3 percent higher for the day with noted bull spreading in a likely sign of commercial demand. F...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest now covers 10 percent of the total area with an average yield of 1.1 MT/ha. It's important to remember that the harvest begins in the northern part of the country where yields are typically low, and this year, they were further impacted by adverse weather c...
Market Commentary: End of Week Strength Creates Firmer Outlook
The CBOT offered a few surprises to end the week with the major grain markets ending higher with strong buying interest. Corn futures posted a 7-cent gain on Friday after threatening their seasonal lows on Thursday with funds and commercials viewing prices below $4.75 as a value-buying opportun...
Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Rally, Grains Side Sideways as Harvest Enters Final Stages
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with corn futures drifting sideways while soymeal and soybeans pulled back from recent strength. Wheat futures were mostly lower, but the KCBT market managed to post a hook reversal for the day, which indicates support may be starting to enter the mar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After Argentina’s recent presidential election and in anticipation of the runoff election, the current government extended the possibility for all exports of goods and services to access 30 percent of the foreign currency at a higher exchange rate. This move was made to keep financi...
Market Commentary: New Highs in Soymeal; Cattle Finally Turnaround; China Washes Out Brazilian Soy Cargoes
The CBOT largely followed its existing trends into the weekend, which meant rallies in soymeal and soybeans, new contract lows in wheat, and sideways trade in corn and soyoil. Live cattle futures finally posted what WPI views as an overdue correction from Monday’s collapse with steady/fir...
Market Commentary: Wheat Had Volume and Gains
The market opened mostly in the green this morning after overnight markets showed small gains for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats. About mid-session, corn and the soybean complex began trading both sides unchanged while wheat retained some upward if less lofty positions. In fact,...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Flashes Reversal; South American Rains Douse Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT was heavily influenced by fresh forecasts for beneficial rains in South America over the next two weeks. Rains will offer relief to drought-afflicted Argentina and keep Brazil’s soybean planting (roughly one-third finished so far) moving forward. Moreover, the shift toward a wett...
Market Commentary: CBOT Fails to Maintain Technical Strength; COF Report Sinks Cattle Futures
Last week’s trade saw major ag commodities rally on bullish technical developments with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all topping key chart points. That strength did not last, however, as the CBOT turned lower in what was a weak day across most markets. The situation in the Middle East cont...
Elections and Consequences: Argentina and U.S.House Speaker
Argentina held its national election yesterday, including the multi-candidate presidential race. The results are in: no candidate garnered the necessary 45 percent to win outright so the election will move to a 19 November two candidate run-off. The two qualifying candidates are current Economy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Market Overview and Election Results Last week there was very little activity in the markets leading up to Sunday’s elections. The government completely restricted the exchange market, both formal and informal, to prevent a significant depreciation of the Argentine peso prior to the...
Market Commentary: Topsy-Turvey
Markets traded mostly in the red during the first half of the day’s and then corn, soybeans/meal and wheat turned right-side up. There are a lot of mixed signals. The bears still see it as sideways at best in the middle of harvesting. The bulls appreciate that the demand side is still cru...
Market Commentary: Export News and Rumors Create Mid-Week Strength
Strength developed at the CBOT on Wednesday with another strong rally in soymeal helping pull soybeans higher and, in turn, support the corn market as well. Fresh news is a bit lacking right now, so export news and rumors of possible sales have an outsized influence on the market. Soybeans cont...
Market Commentary: Retail Sales Show Strong Consumer Spending; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with a surge in soymeal futures helping pull soybeans higher amid a lack of fresh fundamental commodity news. Indeed, the biggest news of the day was more pertinent for the macroeconomic markets (equities, bonds, currencies, etc.) as the retail sales report showed...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Report; Exports Improve as Barge Rates Fall
The soy complex was the upside leader at the CBOT to start the week with a bullish NOPA report driving the markets. NOPA reported a record-large September crush and soyoil stocks at nine-year lows, which sent soybeans and soyoil futures higher for the day. Beyond that, grain and livestock marke...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Sorghum Little has been said about the sorghum crop in Argentina, but it is having a very particular year. The 2023 crop produced 2.5 MMT according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on 845,000 hectares of harvested land. This is far below the nearly-3.5 MMT harvested in 2020/21 and 2021/...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA kept their estimate unchanged at 220 million bushels for U.S. soybean ending stocks. The estimate for U.S. production was reduced 42 million on lower yields, but beginning stocks were increased and soybean exports reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion (due to increased competition fro...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks by 110 million bushels to 2,111 million bushels for 2023/24. This is still a healthy ending stocks, but the estimated season-average corn price received by U.S. farmers was raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel. Global corn stocks are down 1...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 15 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 November 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets were mixed this week with Capes rising while Supramax vessel rates declined yet again. The Capesize sector found support from China’s recent efforts to stockpile coal and iron ore, but this support has not yet t...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outlook. Notably, soymeal prices have slumped $30/MT lower since early October and are hovering near contract lows just below the $300 mark. Conve...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent strength in U.S. soyoil and soymeal prices has helped push “board” crush margin (i.e., the margin implied or calculated by CBOT futures contracts) to new highs with the VVX margin hitting $1.62/bushel and the HHH margins topping the $1.45 mark for the first time in over a...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Coffee Rally Stalls as Weather Shifts, Bear Move Ahead?
Coffee futures have been on a massive rally in 2024 with the ICE “C” contract rising above $2.60/lb last week, breaching that point for just the fifth time since 1970. The catalyst for the rally has been well reported this year, with declining stocks and weather issues in major prod...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Recent rains have benefited parts of Argentina, but not all areas received significant precipitation. The highest accumulations occurred in the central-east and southern regions of Buenos Aires Province, with 30–50 mm recorded. However, the provinces of Córdoba, Santa...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle and Beef Imports
High cattle and beef prices are supporting imports. First, cattle imports through July are up 22.6 percent compared to last year. Imports from Canada are up 18.1 percent and imports from Mexico have increased 25.2 percent over the same period. This trend of increased imports certai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Broad-based September Rally
The CBOT was higher once again with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soymeal all scoring new rally highs and bullish technical victories. In wheat in particular, fund managers are working hard to cover shorts as the technical outlook rapidly shifts bullish, which has driven much of this week’s...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on the defensive amid the ongoing pricing malaise affecting nearly every major exporter. The Paris wheat market is particularly beleaguered righ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and Entre Ríos. The central and southeastern parts of Buenos Aires received similar amounts on 21 August. However, most of the core agri...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Currently, 85 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is in normal to good condition, reflecting a nearly 10 percent decline from the previous week. Recent rains benefited many areas, but a significant portion of the wheat has not received rain for several weeks and is showing signs...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores Bullish Reversal; WASDE Confirms Soy’s Bearish Outlook
The WASDE held more than a few surprises on Monday with USDA offering hope for the beleaguered corn market to the extent that futures posted a bullish key reversal on the chart. If the soybean market was hoping for similar aid, it received none, and the WADSE was deeply bearish with a record-br...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After several weeks of waiting, rain finally fell over much of Argentina’s wheat-planted area, bringing relief to many producers. However, some regions, including the northern core zone, western Buenos Aires, and the northern agricultural region, received little to no rain. In...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Make New Lows; Corn, Wheat Fall on WASDE Supply Expectations
The CBOT was once again mostly red for the day with traders preparing for the August WASDE and generally expecting large crops and ending stocks for the 2024/25 year. The Midwest weather remains nearly ideal for producing big crops, and the only real question is how harvested acreage will impac...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Cattle and Beef Markets and Brazil’s Cattle
This past week’s slaughter at 593,000 was down 7,000 head from the previous week and down 22,000 from last year. The fed cattle portion of the weekly slaughter continues to make a larger percentage of the total slaughter than prior years with cow slaughter of both dairy and beef cows in d...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Weather, Crop Ratings; Wheat Firms on EU Worries
If Monday’s trade as all about the macro market meltdown, then Tuesday’s trade was about returning to normal. Global equity, bond, and currency markets mostly reversed course on Tuesday and pared back some of the massive losses they incurred over the past three trading sessions. Tha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the wheat planting has ended with a total seeded area of 6.3 Mha, aligning it with other private estimates of 6.3–6.4 Mha. In certain regions, some fields were not planted due to a lack of soil moisture, and with current prices, it is not worth t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat planting reached 98.5 percent of the expected 6.3 Mha last week, with some localized rains allowing producers to advance planting. However, the lack of water and frost damage to tissues caused the crop condition t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Weather Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hours. This extreme weather impacts various crops. For maize still standing in the field, the cold aids in drying and thus speeds up the harves...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double
Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Stabilize while Soy Complex, Livestock Collapse Further
Trade at the CBOT was highly mixed across the different market categories Tuesday with grains (corn and wheat) seeing mild gains and signs of pre-WASDE stability emerge while oilseeds and livestock futures sold off sharply again. The vegoil rally that last week’s tensions between Indonesi...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are the lack of surface soil moisture in the central and northern agricultural areas, and excess moisture in the south. Fifteen percent of the es...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Projections made by NOAA on 20 June for the rest of the year show, for the third consecutive month, a decrease in the predicted cooling of the sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific compared to what was calculated in March this year. This indicates that the intensity...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Turnaround; Hog Selloff Continues; Cattle Shrug Off COF Report
Trade at the CBOT was dynamic and interesting on Monday with early-day weakness sending wheat, corn, and soybeans all to fresh lows while late-day short-covering and buying pulled the latter two markets higher. Soybeans scored double-digit gains for the day while the corn market could only mana...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat It was a short trading week in Argentina with holidays on Monday, Thursday, and Friday and the CBOT being closed on Wednesday, all of which led to low activity for the week. Origination and FOB markets were quiet for both corn and wheat. Presently, with a weekly progress of almost 2...
Market Commentary: Grain Rally Fades; Soybeans Try for Recovery; Bearish COF Numbers
The CBOT was mixed to close the week with traders seeming to take a break after this week’s generally bearish price action. There was notable short profit taking that helped the soy complex, while corn and wheat continued to drift lower amid weak technicals and bearish fundamental sentime...
Market Commentary: Still Looking for that Inevitable Bottom
Today, everything bled red except live cattle. Generally favorable U.S. weather overhangs the market until USDA’s Acreage Report is issued next week on 28 June. Nothing is tanking as much as wheat, with Paris now entering oversold territory and July HRS hitting a new contract low...
Market Commentary: No Threats so Hedging Bearish
Final planted numbers are unknown until late this month and the spread on that outcome is wide, but weather is only a theoretical threat to what could be a big U.S. crop. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report was released after the market close, but the crop conditions were already viewed as...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting is progressing rapidly. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 43 percent of the estimated 6.2 Mha have been sown. The Rosario Grain Exchange is slightly more optimistic, estimating an area of 6.9 Mha, and a production of 21 MMT. The market, in general, is taking a m...
Market Commentary: Ignoring Weather, Modest Volume Sees Mostly Red
Grains and soybeans followed the overnight close by trading lower at the open. The early stretch just saw fractional declines but later in the morning, corn and soybeans took deeper dives. Volumes were modest to lower, except in cattle futures. Despite expectations that the current hotter, drie...
Market Commentary: Some Higher Closes on Sideways Trade
Corn, the soybean complex and SRW all closed higher on the day with Kansas City and Minneapolis fractionally lower. For the trading week thus far, July corn is up 9.75 cents (2.1 percent), July soybeans are 10.25 cents higher (0.8 percent), and July SRW is down 7.5 cents (-1.1 percent). ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course, Corn and Soy Quiet Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT’s trade was primarily focused on last-minute preparation and positioning for the WASDE, which USDA will release at Noon ET on Wednesday. That meant corn and soybeans saw more selling pressure as expectations call for larger U.S. crops and ending stocks for the coming year. Wheat,...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Accelerates; Corn, Soy Stabilized Before WASDE; Cattle and Hogs Diverge
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with corn and the soy complex seeing some cautious support, mostly concentrated in old crop markets, while the massive selloff in wheat continued with funds eagerly selling into the weakness. One feature of the day’s trade was the Goldman roll, which h...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn This week, the Argentine government confirmed that the sworn export sales declarations (DJVE) will not be extended, unlike the previous administration. Exporters must ship a minimum of 26 MMT by January 2025. Between June, July, and August alone, DJVEs account for 8.7 MMT, with an addition...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off a New Floor
Corn, soybeans, and wheat were both higher in the overnight session and added to that mood today except only HRW amongst the wheats held on to gains. For corn and soybeans, today broke a seven consecutive session losing streak, and HRW ended a six-session losing streak. Some in the trade...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Data Pressures CBOT; Hogs Collapse on Demand Worries
The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. There are certainly some areas of concern and potential for some acres to be planted to soybeans at the last minute, but the overall outlook is...
Market Commentary: Shifting Weather Implies Sideways Wheat Trade, Lower Outlook for Corn, Soy
The CBOT was almost strictly lower to start the new month with corn and soybeans leading the way on expectations (that were proved correct) of strong planting progress last week. Wheat futures tried to rally in early trade, but the corn and soy complex weakness pulled that market lower with add...
No Mimosas
Brazil produces more than a third of the world’s oranges and controls 70 percent of global exports. This drought, plus disease and other issues has caused production to fall by nearly a quarter. As a result, prices have spiked. It may not be a proxy for soybeans and corn since oranges are...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Determining how much wheat will be planted in Argentina is difficult. Production margins have gone from very bad to very good, thereby encouraging producers to change their minds about planting intentions. An increase in area is certain; in fact, the top market seed varieties are al...
Market Commentary: Markets Enter May like a Lion, Leave as a Lamb
Usually, it’s the month of March that comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb, but commodity markets chose to follow that pattern in May, which creates an interesting summer outlook. With Friday’s trade concluding the month of May, it’s notable that the major ag markets al...
Market Commentary: Pigs Fly, the Rest Swim
The market open is very telltale about the trade’s beliefs. It can open hard and fast in one direction or another, or it can move in small increments back and forth, reflecting less certainty about the direction. The latter was the case this morning involving corn and soybeans. By contras...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Move to Trading Range Lows; Wheat Falls on Black Sea Rain
Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting progress, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and rains forecast for the Black Sea region this week. Corn and soybeans primarily saw their weakness de...
Market Commentary: Weather Continues to Drive CBOT Strength; Meat Stocks Tighten Further
Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South America over the coming three-day holiday weekend. Weather concerns for planting the 2024 U.S. crops are lingering despite strong progress to da...
Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans
Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, slower than WPI expected. It currently spans 25 percent of the area, which implies an 8 percent delay compared to the five-year average. The progress is slowed as combines are still fully engaged in harvesting soybeans and...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...
Brazil Leans into Meat
Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn production this year could be down almost 10 percent from a year ago, and USDA’s latest forecast has 2024/25 output down 7.2 percent from 2022/...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop
In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerned about Northern Hemisphere weather. Monday’s trade was seemingly primarily focused on the dryness and recent frost/freeze events in c...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major floods. There are many dead, injured, and evacuated individuals. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 50 percent of the country's wheat pro...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads WASDE-Defying CBOT Rally
The CBOT was higher heading into Friday’s May WASDE report from the USDA with weather and production concerns in various parts of the globe driving futures into the green. The WASDE didn’t really support an outlook for higher trade/prices, but the CBOT rallied anyway after the repor...
Market Commentary: Weather and Old versus New Crop
The trade continued to position ahead of tomorrow’s May USDA WASDE report. Some took profits as they backed out of positions but, overall, there was lower volume. The exception being soyoil where a new July contract low was printed. Adverse South American crop weather supports old crop v...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Contract on More Pre-WASDE Positioning
Grain futures continue to retreat from their recent rally highs with traders unwilling to overextend risks heading into Friday’s WASDE report. The WASDE should be supportive old crop futures from cuts to the Brazilian and Argentine crops, but new crop futures could see pressure from expec...
Market Commentary: Traders Pause CBOT Rally While Eyeing WASDE
The grain market fundamentals didn’t change much from Monday to Tuesday, but traders largely suspended their short-covering or long-positioning efforts as they looked ahead to the May WASDE. The report will be issued this Friday and will include USDA’s first projections for MY 2024/...
Market Commentary: Bulls Are Running Again
Bulls remain firmly in charge of CBOT ag trade with weather concerns seemingly around the world prompting short covering and fresh long buying. Wheat and soybeans were the upside leaders at the CBOT once again as these two commodities hold the most bullish weather implications. Corn was largely...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Currently, Argentine farmers have harvested 22 percent of the corn area, with a weekly progress of only 2.3 percent. While soybean harvesting takes precedence and progresses much faster, farmers are only now able to enter some fields after the rains of the past few weeks. The Buenos Aires...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher on Weather
After days of flat to faltering closes, corn and soybeans have now rebounded the past two days, and today wheat joined the rally. In two days, July corn has gained 13 cents and July soybeans are up 36 cents. USDA’s Export Sales report showed old crop washouts and lower actual expor...
Market Commentary: CBOT Remains Choppy, Volatile as Weather Drives Markets
The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third straight day amid more forecasts of showers for previously dry production regions. The soy complex recovered a bit from Tuesday’s sellof...
Market Commentary: Wheat Pulls Back from Weather Rally; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with wheat futures (except the MGEX market) pulling back amid profit taking and a general feeling of a correction after their recent rally. The soy complex, on the other hand, saw a strong rally in soymeal as the plight of the Argentine crop is bolster...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest only advanced by 2 percentage points last week as the rains show no mercy, making it difficult for farmers to enter the fields. Moreover, the focus of those who can enter fields remains on soybeans, which are typically harvested as soon as possible and take p...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Nearing a Ceiling
Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat higher for a seventh straight session, and pork finally took a fall. There was high volume trading in corn today but without any strong fee...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Weather Rally; Corn, Soybeans Steady While Eyeing Weather
Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and the Black Sea. Until a few weeks ago, there were few doubts about the 2024 crop being able to supply the expected demand, but now reduced yi...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains to Close Week; Wheat Firms on Bullish News
The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supportive development in the IGC’s lower 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast, dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains, and smaller Russian 2024...
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
Market Commentary: Grains Shake off WASDE Blues on Weather Concerns; Livestock Futures Collapse Again
Trade in ag futures saw greatly diverging trends on Friday with the grains and oilseeds markets strengthening after Thursday’s relatively bearish WASDE report while livestock markets collapsed further. The grain market saw support from more news of large U.S. soybean export sales –...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Market Commentary: Small But Bearish Changes
When you see a bear, start backward charging, and that is what corn, beans, and wheat did today. The Board was under pressure ahead of the release of USDA’S April WASDE report and while few changes were expected in the report, and few were made, the ones announced reinforced the bearish t...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Positioning, Crop Conditions, Weather Forecasts Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with traders increasingly focused on preparing for Thursday’s WASDE report amid little fresh news. Declining crude oil prices pulled the soy complex lower as did slight upward revisions from private firms for the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There is much talk about Argentina’s new wheat campaign outlook that mostly centers on the uncertainty regarding planted area. The consensus right now, however, is that the 2024/25 area will decrease from the prior year. Seed and input sales for planting are lagging last year’...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Overnight and Vegoils Extend Rally
The CBOT started the overnight session on a strong note with solid volume and most markets heading into the green. Fresh fundamental news was light and it seems most of the day’s trade was due to short covering, spillover support from the vegoil and crude oil markets, and light commercial...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week without rain, Argentina’s corn harvest gained momentum and reached nearly 6 percent of the area. This had the consequent effect of increasing truck arrivals at ports, which was a relief for exporters who face a vessel lineup of 1.8 MMT of corn. Argentina has already expo...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally
The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast of Argentina’s corn harvest estimate by 2.5 MMT down to 54 MMT last week. The main reasons are the February heatwave (which affected the mid- and late-season corn), excessive rainfall, and inclement weather that caused yield losses...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on Vegoil Strength; Record Cow-Calf Profits Forecast for 2024
The CBOT largely reversed the trends of the prior two days as wheat futures pulled back while the soy complex jumped to sharp gains and the corn market saw quiet strength. The soy complex is reacting to growing strength in broader vegoil markets, especially Malaysian palm oil, and that fundamen...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains Continue while Corn, Soy Slide Sideways
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with traders consolidating positions ahead of next week’s Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports. Fresh fundamental news was light, which left corn and the soy complex to drift sideways/lower while wheat futures pushed higher with support comi...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Brazil’s Meat Opportunity
Brazil has famously surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, and it could become a more consistent top exporter of corn. However, its livestock production lags. Brazil’s soybean production has been expanding at an average 5.5 percent per year, and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Intense rains have fallen over practically all of Argentina’s agricultural region in the last few days, delaying the corn harvest. The reported weekly progress was only 1 percent, and the total harvested area stands at only 3.2 percent. Several days of good weather will be nece...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s early corn harvest has begun in various regions of the country with good yields, although it's too early to draw conclusions as the harvested area has only reached 2 percent of the total area. While one should expect the harvest to pick up speed in the coming days, the fo...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
Market Commentary: Interesting Trade Despite Few WASDE Changes
The CBOT posted interesting developments on Friday, even while the March WASDE report failed to offer the same intrigue. The USDA’s latest look at U.S. and world supply and demand fundamentals was largely a “steady as she goes” affair with few significant changes. Despite the...
Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE
With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW. Tomorrow will see the release...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Market Commentary: South American Rains, Export Competition Push CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with wheat leading the way on new contract lows in Paris wheat and aggressive competition from Ukraine and Russia on the export market. CBOT wheat also scored new contract lows as traders again piled into short positions on the emerging technical weakness. Corn...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is going through a challenging time in Argentina. The decline in prices, both in the local and export markets, has been constant over the last few months and has pushed values to levels that are very difficult for producers to absorb. Currently, in the local market, transactions are...
Market Commentary: Next Week Won’t Be Boring as Wheat, Corn Pull Back and Soybeans Rise
The CBOT was mixed to end the week and start the month of March with livestock futures extending their rallies amid strong fundamentals. Grain trade, however, was less decisive with wheat futures dropping sharply lower amid greater competition from Ukraine and a bearish breakdown in technical c...
Market Commentary: Higher CBOT and Corn Reversal Deny Long-Run Bearish Outlook
The CBOT turned mostly higher to start the week amid some bullish fundamental developments and funds covering shorts after the market’s recent and wildly profitable plunge lower. Corn was the upside leader with the May contract posting a bullish key reversal on the chart as export inspect...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Following the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, expectations for increased soybean demand from China were not met, resulting in a lower-than-anticipated purchase volume. There was still some activity, however, and last week Brazil saw movement for March...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Short-Covering, Value Buying
The CBOT turned sharply higher after the three-day weekend with wheat leading the way on a surge in buying interest. Paris wheat started the rally with contracts there rebounded from new contract lows, and that strength spilled over into CBOT and KCBT futures as well. While little clear motivat...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise
Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It is expected that extreme temperatures recorded in Argentina over the past fifteen days may reduce the corn crop’s yield potential, primarily in late-maturing corn (to be evaluated in the coming weeks). Currently, 53 percent of that crop is going through its critical period for yie...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Firm in Early Week Trade; Russia Lowers “Suggested” Wheat Price
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman roll concluded its fourth day on Monday, which helped drive some of the day’s trade, though roll volume was far below Friday’s...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores New Contract Lows; CBOT Relegated to Sideways/Lower Trade
Post-WASDE trade saw the CBOT markets largely continue their former trends with the February report – as usual – offering only minor adjustments to the supply and demand picture. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was the fall to new contract lows in corn futures as shorts continue...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Market Commentary: A Day of New Numbers
It might have been a day of big surprises given the number of new crop estimates being issued around the world. Governments in China, Brazil, Canada, and the U.S. all issued new forecasts, but the overall changes were relatively small. The result was a mixed day in U.S. futures markets. Volume...
Market Commentary: Bears Pile into Corn Ahead of WASDE; Other Markets Pause Before Report
Typically, trading the day before a major USDA report – including the WASDE – is muted and that statement held true for all but one commodity on Wednesday. The exception to the rule was corn where the market dropped to fresh contract lows in moderately heavy volume with bearish sent...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls on Early Selling; Wheat Continues Sideways March; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ag markets spent most of Tuesday preparing for the coming February WASDE report with funds and commercials adjusting positions. Wheat futures saw mild strength amid their relentless grid sideways while the soy complex found some upside traction in follow-through trade from Monday&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink, Soy Complex Rallies to Start Week; USD Rally Threatens Exports
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with the soy complex posting a bullish turnaround on stronger-than-expected export inspections and rising soymeal demand. Wheat futures drifted lower and maintained their sideways ranges with pressure from the Matif market helping pull prices into the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Like every other low-production year, the dynamics of Argentina’s FOB market are greatly reduced. On the one hand, there are fewer destinations where Argentina can compete and, on the other, there is less positioning by trading houses. In the current wheat campaign (December and Jan...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Meat Up Over Corn and Beans
Markets opened like the overnight, all flashing red except for cattle. Then at mid-morning wheat started flashing green. SRW, HRS and cattle hung on to close higher, while corn and the soy complex proved that Tuesday’s gains were just a dead cat bounce in an otherwise ongoing trend lower...
Market Commentary: Grains Turnaround Fizzles; Soymeal Surges on Domestic Demand
The CBOT saw mixed trade on Wednesday as the grain markets (corn and wheat) failed to follow through on Tuesday’s reversal and instead either sank lower or ended essentially unchanged while the soy complex continued Tuesday’s show of strength. Soymeal was the upside leader in the so...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday – Dead Cat Bounce or Trend Reversal?
The CBOT posted a decisive Turnaround Tuesday with the soy complex, corn, and wheat all turning sharply higher and scoring bullish days on the charts. The odd thing was that the day’s rally came without clear fundamental justification, with the only really bullish story being Argentina&rs...
Market Commentary: China Economic Worries Shake Grain Markets, Soybeans End Below $12, Corn at $4.40
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with commodity and macroeconomic markets under pressure from bearish economic news in China. Over the weekend, a court ordered China’s largest real estate developer, Evergrande, to liquidate amid the ongoing bankruptcy. That sent bearish ripples...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The quality issues (low test weight) in Argentina’s wheat that WPI has noted in recent weeks now seems to be quite localized in the Southwest of Buenos Aires province, near the port of Bahia Blanca. Nevertheless, there doesn't seem to be a current need for exporters to go out and se...
Market Commentary: China Approval of Argentine Wheat Snaps Futures’ Winning Streak; Livestock Rally Accelerates
Grain/oilseed and livestock markets are currently headed in diverging directions – with commodities involving plants and tractors falling while commodities eating said plants rallying sharply. Soybeans were the downside leader at the CBOT after the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the Arg...
Market Commentary: Bull Wheat, Bear Beans; Corn Takes a Break
There was notably higher volume trading soybeans, soyoil, HRW, and beef today. Each driven by different factors; all appeared to be driven more by fundamentals than stochastic parrots. Export sales were generally lower than the prior week, except for soyoil, but were higher than th...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on China Buying Rumors, Spring Acres Estimates; Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly higher at midweek with grains – particularly wheat – leading the rally. Market chatter suggests China has returned to the U.S. to book SRW wheat, though we cannot find confirmation of such trades yet. Even so, the words “China buying” will create a ra...
Market Commentary: CBOT Higher on Short Covering, Bull Spreading; Hogs Post Technical Rally
The CBOT finished higher for the day with traders increasingly engaging in bottom-picking and hopeful that last week saw the grain market develop its near-term and seasonal lows. Grain and oilseed markets started the day session with noted strength, but only soybeans, soymeal, and KC wheat coul...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher, Creates Cautious Buying Cascade
The CBOT was mostly lower overnight with grain markets unable to find their footing after two bearish weeks and a weekend of favorable weather for Brazil and Argentina. The day session offered a bit of relief for bulls, however, with corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil finding their way to higher...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
2022/23 Crop Export Update The historic drought that impacted Argentina one year ago resulted in a drastic 38 percent decline in grain production during the 2022/23 season, reaching only 83.4 MMT, the lowest figure since 2008/09. This decline had a significant impact on agro-industrial shipment...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Still Bouncing
Thursday saw the start of a “dead cat bounce” for many oversold CBOT futures contracts, and that trend continued Friday. Corn and wheat futures finished higher for the day but posted the gains on unconvincing volume and with little in the way of meaningful technical developments. Th...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Bounce
After hitting new contract lows in corn and wheat again today, there was a turnaround led by wheat. However, without any change in the underlying fundamentals, it is difficult to call it new support. Since last Friday’s January WASDE report, March corn is down 13.75 cents, March soybeans...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Corn, Wheat; Cattle & Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with traders still reacting to the bearish implications of the January WASDE. For bulls, matters seem to keep getting worse as competion from South America continues to rise. Brazilian FOB offers for soybeans are plunging lower while the Rosario Grain Excha...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Drifting Lower into Planting Season?
The January WASDE and Grains Stocks reports are now past, but their impacts continued to drive CBOT price action to start the holiday-shortened week. Corn and wheat saw significant pressure from the WASDE’s bearish implications while soybeans saw two-sided trade under the bullish influenc...
Transatlantic Commonality; Argentina’s NTB’s
Transatlantic Commonality Politico’s senior foreign correspondent Nahal Toosi noted that ambassadors in Washington are warning that U.S. power and influence in the world is declining due to the nation’s intense partisan political divide. But it is not exactly glory days in Europe. F...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. soybean price by 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents. Global soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Shipping, Export Concerns Push CBOT Lower; WASDE Expectations and Forecasts
The CBOT turned lower with just two days before the January WASDE and Grain Stocks report after export prospects dimed following more terrorist attacks in the Red Sea. U.S. and British naval forces shot down 21 drones and missiles fired by Iranian-backed, Yemeni Houthi rebels on Tuesday in what...
Market Commentary: Grains Post Turnaround Tuesday; Lean Hog Technical Rally Continues
The CBOT posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with grain and oilseed markets finding their way to higher ground after two weeks of steadily lower trade. There was little fundamental reason for the day’s strength and most of the buying activity was short covering and position adjustin...
Market Commentary: No Rest for the Bullish
The CBOT followed its bearish drumbeat lower with corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal all logging steep declines for the day. Corn and Paris wheat futures scored a new contract low while soybeans drifted to their lowest level since June. Of course, the driver of the day’s weakness was more...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy and Macroeconomic Update There is discomfort among farmers in the Argentine countryside. The newly inaugurated Milei administration promised during its campaign measures that would favor producers, but for the moment is not fully keeping its word. Although the changes to the exchange rat...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Export Sales, Brazil Rains; Hogs Battle Industry Inelasticity
The CBOT saw corn and soybeans break lower overnight and extend that weakness in the day session with poor export sales data and favorable South American rains offering ample pressure. Corn futures scored a new contract low and are barley above three-year lows right now while the soybean market...
Brazil Politics and Generic Pesticides
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed into law a new pesticide registration statute that will benefit the approval of generic pesticides. The new law grants greater discretionary authority to the Ag Ministry in approving and overseeing pesticides. President Lula did u...
Market Commentary: And the Downward Beat Goes On
There was higher volume in SRW, HRW and lean hogs but overall volumes remained modest, and the export wire is quiet. The latter perhaps influenced by a strong dollar. This leaves ample room for bearish weather news to ricochet around the market. Thus far in this abbreviated first trading week o...
2023: A Look Back in Humor
Note, the following is an attempt to summarize 2023’s major developments in ag markets and U.S. and world politics while injecting humor. Obviously, not everything is 100% factually “correct” and we leave it to you to determine fact from (hopefully) humorous fiction. Jan...
Market Commentary: Greenback Pressures Wheat; Crude Rally Lifts Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT saw pressure for the second straight day with a four-day rebound in the U.S. dollar working against grain values. While the rising greenback pressured all markets, wheat was the only major ag market to end lower as the stronger currency highlights the export threat from Russia. Corn an...
Market Commentary: 2024 Trending Bearish Grains, Optimistic for Cattle
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened trading week with an old fashion hard open on Tuesday morning with no overnight trade to guide initial investment. That meant markets were slammed by sell orders stemming from weekend rains in Brazil and forecasts for more over the coming weeks. Soybeans g...
Market Commentary: Wheat Escapes Doldrums; Corn, Soy Complex Drift Lower
Except for wheat, the CBOT and CME’s major ag markets were uniformly lower in a relatively unexciting trading session Thursday. Wheat managed to escape the mid-holiday doldrums after news broke that a civilian bulk cargo vessel hit a Russian sea mine in the western Black Sea. The obvious...
Market Commentary: Post Holiday Flush
Traders must have gotten some cash in their Christmas stockings because there was a slight buying mood in the market today. Except for bean oil and pork, most contracts turned higher today. The reopening of the southern border and exports late on Friday no doubt flushed out one bearish pressure...
Market Commentary: Slow Day but Notable Reports for Next Week
Trading volumes today were down 40-50 percent in some commodities, but the bottom line was some exiting and losses from the week before an extended holiday period. The story line no doubt is improved weather in Brazil and the U.S. Midwest, transportation hurdles, and stiff competition from both...
Oilseed Highlights: Improving Weather and Challenging Logistics
The Market Oilseed markets have seen more pressure than support this week due to improved weather forecasts for Brazil and increasingly challenging global export and transportation logistics. Through Thursday’s close, March CBOT soybeans are down 2.2 percent (29¾ cents) since...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Shipping, Export Concerns Mount; Corn Finds New Lows
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure building from increasingly challenging shipping logistics around the world. The situation in the Panama Canal is well known but recent escalations in Middle East tensions and re-routing of ships around the Red Sea are causing more h...
Market Commentary: KCBT Wheat Upside Leader in Mixed Day; Livestock Futures Fall Ahead of Reports
Conflicting supply and demand factors resulted in mixed trade at the CBOT once again, but the surprise of the day was KCBT wheat’s 2.2 percent rally – a move that outshone other ag market trade. As discussed later in this report, there was little clear evidence for the KC market&rsq...
Ag Exports Not the Panacea
According to the FAO agricultural trade index, Africa has experienced the relatively largest jump in the past decade, followed by North and South America. Yet the share of global GDP for both Africa and South America remains low. Despite the boom in agricultural exports where it is now dominati...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Crush; Grains Dip on Slack Exports
The CBOT was mixed to start the last full trading week of 2023 with the soy complex rallying on the heels of last week’s NOPA crush report. The report featured the second-largest U.S. soybean crush in history, which helped push the soy complex higher for the day. Exports were a weight on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy Updates Argentina’s new government led by Javier Milei has begun and several new measures have been implemented. Despite being unpopular and restrictive, these measures promise to adjust the macroeconomic landscape over the coming months and eventually reduce inflation and free mar...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Slide Sideways; Wheat, Cattle Extend Rallies
Trade at the CBOT was mostly a low-volume affair heading into the weekend and there was a growing sense that, except for wheat and cattle, most of the week’s activity had already been completed. The soy complex was mixed as soybeans and soymeal were mostly lower while soyoil rallied on te...
Market Commentary: Fed Continues to Fuel Recovery
Today’s open followed last night’s close with corn, soybeans, and wheat all higher. The market subsequently dipped but only corn and soyoil failed to end the session in the green. Yesterday’s Federal Reserve statement indicating a likely end to interest rate hikes and potentia...
Market Commentary: Policy Front and Center for Commodity Trade
Macroeconomic and commodity market policy factors were front and center for the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, following the devaluation of the Argentine peso and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Both policy decisions came in as expected with the Fed holding rates unchanged...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Pulls Soy Complex Lower; Wheat Rises on Growing Demand
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In contrast, the wheat market managed to shrug off Monday’s dramatic declines and push higher with signs that world demand is starting to in...
Market Commentary: Trend Reversals to Start the Week
The CBOT’s Monday trade saw two notable reversals from the recent week’s trends. The first was the strength in soybean futures, which erased all last week’s losses on Monday due to more hot, dry weather for central and northern Brazil. The second reversal was in wheat where fu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Policy and Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s trading last week was shortened due to a national holiday on Friday. At the same time, it was the week before the newly elected President took office on Sunday, and expectations of a dramatically different approach to...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Cattle Find New Contract Lows
The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export sales to China, which boosted wheat futures initially, but there was a subsequent sense of reluctance to exit profitable short positions ahea...
Market Commentary: Second Day of SRW Sales to China Boosts Wheat; Pre-WASDE Consolidation Begins
Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upside leader for the past several sessions as a combination of growing bullish fundamentals and aggressive fund short covering lift the market...
Market Commentary: Rains Send Soy Complex Lower; China Sales, Short Covering Extend Wheat Rally
Rains in Brazil and Argentina heavily influenced the CBOT to start the week and sent the entire soy complex sharply lower. The precipitation also weighed on corn futures, which settled essentially unchanged, but was offset by the continuing rally in wheat futures. Wheat was again sharply higher...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving at high speed and advanced 10 percent last week, which put the total harvest above 35 percent of the area. Most fields are being harvested 7-10 days earlier than usual, which is why at this point last year the harvest was only 20 percent comple...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally, Soy Falls to End Volatile Week; Grain Crushing Report Bullish
The CBOT continued its mid-week trends into the week’s end with corn and wheat futures posting another higher day with short covering and technical, speculative buying offering support. The soy complex struggled for the day and all three components of the crush ended lower as the weekend...
Market Commentary: Exports versus Weather and Crude Oil
It was a mixed day for futures trading with corn and wheat rebounding from early week contract lows but the soy complex sliding lower on a weak petroleum market that dragged soyoil down with it. Weather added a bearish overlay as rains continue to be helpful for Argentina and the forecas...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows to Start the Week
Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, carving out new contract lows. There was no bullish news for wheat, cattle, or hogs, which led to a deluge of selling to start the week. The w...
Brazil’s Corn at Greater Risk than Soybeans
Analysts have noted the analog years for adverse El Niño impacts in Brazil as 2015/16 and 2020/21. As in those years, Brazil has had limited moisture and intense heat in major central and norther production areas. However, corn was more adversely impacted than soybeans in both of those p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics and Policy Argentina’s outgoing presidential administration’s first post-election measure was to increase the percentage of foreign currency that exporters can re-enter into the system through the free exchange market (financial dollar). Now, exporters can allocate 50...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as do Rains in Brazil; Livestock Futures Find Post-Holiday Selloff
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly lower to end the holiday-shortened week with favorable weather forecasts for Brazil pressuring the grains and oilseeds complex while cash market weakness sent livestock futures tumbling. Trading volume was above-average for most markets compared to most post...
Market Commentary: CBOT Edges Lower in Risk-Off, Pre-Holiday Trade
CBOT grain and oilseed futures were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders reduced risk ahead of Thursday’s market closure and the shortened trading day on Friday. While the dynamics of futures exchange trading hours played a role in the day’s trade, the general lack of fresh news was...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Climb on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Russian Attacks
Wheat futures were the exception to the CBOT’s trend-following trade on Tuesday, as the market rallied following another round of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports. The news sent wheat higher with CBOT futures up 10+ cents in a clear break from their recent trend lower. Corn and soybeans...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Overcomes Weak Start to Post Big Gains; Wheat Finds New Lows
The story of the CBOT was the sharply lower opening soybeans and soymeal suffered overnight, thanks to heavy rains in Brazil over the weekend. Those early losses, however, were fully erased by midday and both markets posted sharp gains due to China’s import program and the long-term outlo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine Policy Updates Last night, Argentina’s Liberal candidate for president, Javier Milei, was elected as the next President of Argentina and will assume his role on 10 December 2023. In his campaign, he promised to move the country’s economy to the U.S. dollar, eliminate expor...
Market Commentary: Wetter Brazil Forecast Sends Corn, Soy Lower; KC Wheat Hits 2-Year Low
Most of this week’s early rally in the grain and oilseed markets was justified by the challenging weather in Brazil. The weather has not only impacted the soybean first corn crops currently being planted, but also the planting prospects of the safrinha – or double-crop – corn...
Market Commentary: Good Exports but Brazilian Wildcard
The market was in the red across the board at the open and mostly stayed that way. The exceptions being corn and lean hogs. They broke to the upside late morning and while lean hogs wobbled, both were in the green at the close. Despite the downbeat of the past two sessions, corn and the s...
Market Commentary: Failed Turnaround Tuesday; Inflation Data Emboldens Markets
Bears tried to push the soy complex and corn lower in Tuesday’s early trade as they hoped for a correction following Monday’s rally. That was not to be, however, as the soy complex found strong buying interest from ongoing soymeal demand and sharp gains in Malaysian palm oil that pu...
Market Commentary: China Buying and Soymeal Demand Sends Soy Complex, Corn Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with sharp rallies in soymeal and soybeans creating spillover buying for the rest of the grain markets. Funds were active buyers in both markets with strong spot demand for soymeal driving that market’s rally while soybeans rallied on Chinese b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Thanks to the recent good weather, Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving from north to south and total harvest has reached 15 percent of the area. Yields are coming in below expectations, so the Rosario Grain Exchange again reduced its crop estimation from 14 to 13.5 MMT. Rains arr...
European Market Analysis
Through 9 November, Ukraine’s grain harvest reached 90 percent of the total area and spanned 9.84 million hectares (MHa). The total crop is 51.275 MMT, of which corn production has hit 21.22 MMT and the harvest is 72 percent complete. Sunflower seed production has hit 11.52 MMT and just 3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Quiet to End WASDE Week; Bullish South America Weather Looms
The WASDE’s bearish implications continued to push CBOT futures lower on Friday with funds finding little reason to abandon short positions in corn and wheat. The soybean market saw some gains to end the week, however, traders thought Thursday’s 20-cent, post-WASDE selloff, like man...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks, up 25 million on higher yields, to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price was reduced 2.0 cents to 61.0 cen...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks by 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel. This month’s 2023/24 global corn ending stocks, at 315.0 million tons, are up 2.6 million...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Market Commentary: Tweaks and Surprises
Futures closed mostly lower with USDA’s mid-session November WASDE report causing a drop-off on higher production and stocks. U.S. Wheat Increased imports by 10 million bushels. Raised ending stocks by 14 million bushels. Lowered the season average price by 10-cents to $7.20/bushe...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply Ahead of November WASDE
The November WASDE usually isn’t a major market-moving event, but you wouldn’t know that from how CBOT futures reacted just one day before the report. Wheat – the bearish laggard of the grain complex – jumped to 20+ cent gains at mid-week with little apparent reasoning...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Start Week Firm; Soybeans Rally as Technicals Lead Fundamentals?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with corn and wheat finding small gains on light buying interest while soybeans jumped higher on export demand and a rally in soyoil. Soyoil futures were nearly 3 percent higher for the day with noted bull spreading in a likely sign of commercial demand. F...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest now covers 10 percent of the total area with an average yield of 1.1 MT/ha. It's important to remember that the harvest begins in the northern part of the country where yields are typically low, and this year, they were further impacted by adverse weather c...
Market Commentary: End of Week Strength Creates Firmer Outlook
The CBOT offered a few surprises to end the week with the major grain markets ending higher with strong buying interest. Corn futures posted a 7-cent gain on Friday after threatening their seasonal lows on Thursday with funds and commercials viewing prices below $4.75 as a value-buying opportun...
Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Rally, Grains Side Sideways as Harvest Enters Final Stages
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with corn futures drifting sideways while soymeal and soybeans pulled back from recent strength. Wheat futures were mostly lower, but the KCBT market managed to post a hook reversal for the day, which indicates support may be starting to enter the mar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After Argentina’s recent presidential election and in anticipation of the runoff election, the current government extended the possibility for all exports of goods and services to access 30 percent of the foreign currency at a higher exchange rate. This move was made to keep financi...
Market Commentary: New Highs in Soymeal; Cattle Finally Turnaround; China Washes Out Brazilian Soy Cargoes
The CBOT largely followed its existing trends into the weekend, which meant rallies in soymeal and soybeans, new contract lows in wheat, and sideways trade in corn and soyoil. Live cattle futures finally posted what WPI views as an overdue correction from Monday’s collapse with steady/fir...
Market Commentary: Wheat Had Volume and Gains
The market opened mostly in the green this morning after overnight markets showed small gains for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats. About mid-session, corn and the soybean complex began trading both sides unchanged while wheat retained some upward if less lofty positions. In fact,...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Flashes Reversal; South American Rains Douse Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT was heavily influenced by fresh forecasts for beneficial rains in South America over the next two weeks. Rains will offer relief to drought-afflicted Argentina and keep Brazil’s soybean planting (roughly one-third finished so far) moving forward. Moreover, the shift toward a wett...
Market Commentary: CBOT Fails to Maintain Technical Strength; COF Report Sinks Cattle Futures
Last week’s trade saw major ag commodities rally on bullish technical developments with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all topping key chart points. That strength did not last, however, as the CBOT turned lower in what was a weak day across most markets. The situation in the Middle East cont...
Elections and Consequences: Argentina and U.S.House Speaker
Argentina held its national election yesterday, including the multi-candidate presidential race. The results are in: no candidate garnered the necessary 45 percent to win outright so the election will move to a 19 November two candidate run-off. The two qualifying candidates are current Economy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Market Overview and Election Results Last week there was very little activity in the markets leading up to Sunday’s elections. The government completely restricted the exchange market, both formal and informal, to prevent a significant depreciation of the Argentine peso prior to the...
Market Commentary: Topsy-Turvey
Markets traded mostly in the red during the first half of the day’s and then corn, soybeans/meal and wheat turned right-side up. There are a lot of mixed signals. The bears still see it as sideways at best in the middle of harvesting. The bulls appreciate that the demand side is still cru...
Market Commentary: Export News and Rumors Create Mid-Week Strength
Strength developed at the CBOT on Wednesday with another strong rally in soymeal helping pull soybeans higher and, in turn, support the corn market as well. Fresh news is a bit lacking right now, so export news and rumors of possible sales have an outsized influence on the market. Soybeans cont...
Market Commentary: Retail Sales Show Strong Consumer Spending; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with a surge in soymeal futures helping pull soybeans higher amid a lack of fresh fundamental commodity news. Indeed, the biggest news of the day was more pertinent for the macroeconomic markets (equities, bonds, currencies, etc.) as the retail sales report showed...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Report; Exports Improve as Barge Rates Fall
The soy complex was the upside leader at the CBOT to start the week with a bullish NOPA report driving the markets. NOPA reported a record-large September crush and soyoil stocks at nine-year lows, which sent soybeans and soyoil futures higher for the day. Beyond that, grain and livestock marke...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Sorghum Little has been said about the sorghum crop in Argentina, but it is having a very particular year. The 2023 crop produced 2.5 MMT according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on 845,000 hectares of harvested land. This is far below the nearly-3.5 MMT harvested in 2020/21 and 2021/...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA kept their estimate unchanged at 220 million bushels for U.S. soybean ending stocks. The estimate for U.S. production was reduced 42 million on lower yields, but beginning stocks were increased and soybean exports reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion (due to increased competition fro...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks by 110 million bushels to 2,111 million bushels for 2023/24. This is still a healthy ending stocks, but the estimated season-average corn price received by U.S. farmers was raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel. Global corn stocks are down 1...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...