Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with pressure from macroeconomic markets increasing. In addition to sparking trade wars with nearly every major U.S. trading partner, U.S. Preside...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2...
Barriers are Good; Squeezed in the Trade War; Calculating the Impacts; Tax is a Tax
Barriers are Good The issue de jour is tariffs. Donald Trump is vilified by conventionalists for the self-induced wound of raising this single barrier to business. As a businessman, Trump sees a complex web of market barriers. Domestic regulations, domestic taxes, but also foreign tariffs (taxe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading under the new exchange rate regulations, so it took the markets a few days to adjust. Regarding the official exchange rate, it opened on Monday...
2025/2026 Trade Update
Almost none of the primary U.S. grain or oilseed offerings have made a solid start to 2025-26, as export sales for the upcoming marketing year are largely near multi-year lows. This is not yet a huge problem since the typical buying periods for the season’s supplies are mostly still in th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major ag market, with the notable exception of cattle futures. The buying was most notable in soybeans where, despite the trade war, funds flippe...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 483,500 MT were up 43 percent from the previous week and 11 percent f...
Cattle on Feed - April 2025
U.S. cattle on Feed totaled totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2025 - 2 percent below April 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head, 5 percent above 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.73 million head, 1 percent above 2024. O...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 18 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 21 April. ...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report a Day Early
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today because the markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. The total inventory of cattle on feed was 11.6 million head on 1 April, down 2 percent from April 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head,...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Trade War Machinations; Chicken War; Uncomfortable Europe; MAHA Coke
Trade War Machinations EU trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic left Washington saying the Trump Administration’s trade policy goals were unclear. Yet, the EU rejected Washington’s offer to drop tariffs if Brussels reduces trade ties with China and removes food safety barriers to American...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 16 April)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 11 April 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight The trade war(s) and the possible Section 301 penalties against Chinese vessels docking at U.S. ports have kept freight markets exceptionally volatile in recent weeks. This week’s trend wa...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Heifers on Feed Drop Below Replacement Heifers
One of the metrics we’ve been watching as a sign of herd rebuilding is the number of heifers as a percent of on feed inventory. However, we’re in new territory. For the first time since heifer on feed reporting began in 1996, the inventory of replacement heifers has fallen below Hei...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg’s Tyler Cowen, the world trading order is “weighted against the exporting interests of the U.S.” Moreover, it is growing wor...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate, along with a unification of the official and financial exchange rates. The move includes the eli...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, neither of which was a surprise. Massie has been a skeptic of the bill all along and Spartz famousl...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the trade war’s impact on export markets. Surveys indicate that the American public expects tariffs to raise their cost of living. They al...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
WASDE Corn
Corn - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong
The Market Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s massive reversal and rally in the same markets. The net result of this is that soy complex futures are largely little changed – especi...
Livestock Roundup: Latest CPI Data, Eggs Still in Driver’s Seat
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the “all items index” increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adj...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 339,100 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 16 per...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
War, what is it Good For?
It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. and China seem likely to be permanent. The public will only accept the high cost of this war if they understand and accept its goals. History...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Some Clarity, But Long Haul
Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Breaking too fast to negotiate with other countries would look weak, and retaining tariffs is still viewed by some in the White House as neces...
Ethanol to the Rescue!
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit the year-round sale of E15 fuel through the summer of 2025. The letter encouraged the use of temporary waivers under the Clean Air Act to exte...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
Except for beef packer and feedlot placement margins, cattle and hog industry profits were broadly lower last week with the pork industry seeing the most pronounced weakness. Pork packer margins drifted lower on weaker pork values and despite slightly lower hog purchase costs. Last week’s...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Trade and Jobs Reports
Now that the Administration’s tariff plans are out, what is happening to the trade deficit? After hitting a record in January, the trade deficit shrank to $122.7 billion in February as exports grew by $8 billion while imports declined slightly. Still, that leaves the monthly trade deficit...
Tight Supplies, Strong U.S. Demand to Support Cattle Prices Despite Trade War
Anyone following the beef and cattle markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Now, the outlook is further complicated by the tariffs that will be placed on Mexican feeder cattle impo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
While Swinging for the Fence
Early reactions to President Trump’s tariff war are as expected. Major foreign trading partners are expressing shock and assuring Washington that if there is no negotiated settlement, there will be an appropriate response. Domestic pundits emphasize this is a tax on American consumers and...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 499,600 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from th...
Oilseed Highlights: “Liberation Day” Rattles Markets
The Market Prior to the Liberation Day tariffs that President Trump announced late Wednesday, oilseed markets were seeing noted strength due to renewed hopes for biodiesel demand. Earlier this week, news broke that members of the oil and renewable energy sectors met with the EPA to discus...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
“Reciprocal” Tariffs; Apocalypse Day, or Not; Misdirection
“Reciprocal” Tariffs President Trump’s political opponents acknowledge he is a great marketer and his multi-day hype of a “Liberation Day” came to a head today with the announcement of a minimum 10 percent import tariff and rates at generally half those charged by...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Uncertainty Ends
Trump’s tariff threats are said to be causing uncertainty, though its intent is transparent. One thing tomorrow’s release of the tariff plan will not end is the duplicity of its opponents. Let’s look at some of the sturm und drang and its meaning. East Asia: A joint statement...
Quick Hits: Agency Employment, Grains Reports, and Biofuels
USDA Retirement: USDA employees have until 8 Apil to decide whether to participate in the administration's so-called deferred resignation program. USDA employees were sent an email last night titled “Deferred Resignation Program 2.0,” which says they must make a decision by the dead...
Livestock Industry Margins
Near-record negative margins for beef packers continue to dominate discussion of livestock industry margins this week. Beef packer profits rebounded slightly last week on the heels of firmer beef markets, but remain at -$176/head, which is among the weakest levels in the past two decades. Feedl...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
Liberation Day Minus One; States Rights, National Losses; The Hammer and USDA
Liberation Day Minus One The Trump team is said to be weighing 20 percent across the board tariffs, reducing the share of U.S. funding of the WTO, and critic James Carville says the Administration has collapsed in less than three months. Morgan Stanley calls all the stated goals for tariffs as...
Liberation Day is Coming!
President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "all countries." However, the Administration has yet to reveal many of the key details of his plan, or when actual duties will be implemented...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.23/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $1 f...
Hog Outlook Shows Smaller Production and Exports, but Strong Demand in 2025
The March Hogs and Pigs report offered the industry a much-needed look at what the supply situation is and is likely to be for the coming year. As WPI readers likely already know, the report showed that all-hogs and pigs inventories were essentially equal to last year’s numbers with marke...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 14-20, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 100,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 428,700 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week, but...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1675/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.5 million head. This was down slightly from 1 March 2024 and down 1 percent from 1 December. Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, and...
Oilseed Highlights: Soyoil, Rapeseed Rally on Demand Surge
The Market The big movement in oilseed markets this week is the rally in soyoil futures, which are up 4 percent from last week. The market has rallied due to its large discount against palm oil futures and recent gains in rapeseed prices that are supporting oilseed and vegoils broadly. U...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.01/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $1...
Trade War Maneuvering; MAHA HaHa; Russian Grain Agreement
Trade War Maneuvering Wall Street trading sank lower on word that the White House will announce today tariffs on automobile imports. While some U.S. farm groups are asking for import protections, others are advising a more strategic trade approach that opens up overseas markets. It is reported...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $...
U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption
U.S. manufacturing energy consumption has continued to increase, according to the EIA’s recently released survey results for 2022. The agency conducts and releases the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) every four years. The latest iteration shows the third consecutive increas...
Transatlantic Provocations; Indian Adjustments; Grain Industry Threats
Transatlantic Provocations No one knows what to fully expect on 2 April and the launch of President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Bill Reinsch at the Center for Strategic and International Studies observes that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum likely has the best three componen...
Livestock Industry Margins
The big story in livestock industry margins continues to be the record-breaking weakness in beef packer profits, which fell another $50/head last week to -$193/head. The surge in cattle prices and declines in slaughter weights more than offset gains in beef values and left packers with the lowe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
Monday Policy Potpourri
Hill Trade Advice: The U.S. House Ways & Means’ Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on American trade negotiation priorities. Witnesses include those from agriculture, those impacted by trade retaliation, services, and former Republican trade officials. The Trump Adminis...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $2.7...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Hot CoF Report After the Close
The fundamentals are unchanged but there is a cloud overhead due to the impending tariff war and the headwinds that portends. So, the market today and all week is a matter of treading water until more definitive cues emerge. In fact, today was so mixed that soybeans and soyoil fell even as typi...
Cattle on Feed - March 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head was 11.6 million head on March 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below March 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.55 million head, 18 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.6 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were 1.55 million head, 82 percent of last year, and marketings at 1.74 million head were 91 percent of Fe...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.2...
Cow-Calf Revenues and Producer Responses to Inflation
Southern Plains cow-calf producers saw excellent profitability in 2024, which, by some measures, was the best in history. Current prices indicate that 2025 has similar potential to break profitability records and put the industry on solid financial footing. The impacts of inflation, however, in...
Market Commentary: Export Sales, Weather Mix the Markets
Wheat was the ball and chain while corn was the balloon in today’s trading. The weekly USDA Export Sales report from USDA was notable for wheat with washouts in old crop sales leading to a marketing year low, but new crop sales going blockbuster as Guatemala, Mexico and Panama all sought...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 7-13, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 248,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,900 MT were up noticeably from the prev...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Exports Stumble; China Crush Falls
The Market The weekly Export Sales report was disappointing for soybeans as old crop net sales fell by half from the prior week and new crop net sales registered only 10 KMT – down sharply from the prior week’s volume of 43.1 KMT. Old crop exports were also lower than the prio...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
Market Commentary: U.S., Paris Wheat Diverge; Corn Consolidates; New Highs for Cattle
Except for the wheat market, the CBOT and CME largely continued their existing trends on Wednesday. Wheat futures offered perhaps the most interesting trade as HRW futures reversed course from their recent weather-induced rally and pulled back. The spot KCBT contract settled below $6.00, which...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.7/short ton, down $2.2...
Trade War Fractures
Today was National Agriculture Trade Day, an effort to boost awareness about the benefits of trade to the sector. However, the milestone also sparked debate about the increasing U.S. agricultural trade deficit, and the advisability of the Trump tariff war. President Trump’s goal is...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly lower last week as rising input costs crimped the profitability outlook. Declines were greatest for feedlot placements, where margins fell over $50/head due to higher feeder cattle costs. Beef packer margins saw the next greatest declines with profits drop...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal
Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight day. Unexpected strength in the physical cattle and beef markets has propelled futures higher this week, with funds rapidly expanding already...
Cattle Markets Still Screwy
The cattle marketing year is off to a strange start. In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year. This component of production is driven by two factors: heavier carcass weights of steers and heifers, and the proportion of...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, down $...
‘Dirty 15’; Ukraine’s Ag Exports; WTO and National Security
‘Dirty 15’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump Administration may provide one unique number as the newly applied general tariff on each country supplying goods to the U.S. The few countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. may escape receiving a number but fo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.155/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.3/short ton, down $1.6 from...
Budget Deal Made Just in Time
The House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate have both passed the full-year Continuing Appropriations Act, which would fund the government under a continuing resolution (CR) for the remainder of fiscal year (FY) 2025. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that this bill would set...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egg shortages and rising prices are not just a feature of U.S. agriculture right now, German and northern European markets broadly are experiencing similar shortages. German sources note the supply of “barn eggs” is too small for “prevailing demand”...
Deciphering Trump
The first 100 days of the second Trump presidency doesn’t end until 30 April and is a meaningless metric because Donald Trump’s initiatives will last four years. Washington and the world are not handling the first 55 days very well and they need to figure it out or there will contin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of their long (74,000 contracts) and are now long just 132,000 contracts, or less than half of their position just a few weeks ago. That rapid li...
Market Commentary: Week of Turmoil, Uncertainty, but Not All Dark
There was little in terms of new fundamentals today, and on generally lower volume the board saw mixed trading and results. It was a big week for HRW as the acuity of the drought in the Southern Plains becomes clearer. Overall, the trends are as follows: It was the fourth week in a row lower f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.16/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $305.9/short ton, down $1.2 f...
CONAB Forecasts Record Soybean Production
Brazilian soybean farmers will reap an even bigger crop in the 2024/25 season than previously expected, according to forecasts released by the Brazilian crop agency CONAB yesterday. Brazil's soybean crop, which farmers are harvesting now, is expected to total 167.37 MMT, about 1.3 M...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $307.1/short ton, up $6.9 from...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE
Historical red meat and poultry supply and use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions in slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and production data. Total red meat and poultry production for 2025 is raised on higher beef and chicken production forecasts, which is partially offset by lower por...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade Wars Continue to Drive Markets
The Market Of course, the big news in oilseed markets this past week has revolved around tariffs and retaliatory tariffs – most notably China and the EU’s reactions to President Trump’s new tariffs. Both China and the EU announced retaliatory tariffs that included additi...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $1...
Tariff Waste; Changing the EU; Cost of Data; Fake Food Safety
Tariff Waste Now that Trump tariffs are going into full swing, the question is for what objective? The President says other countries treat America unfairly, indicating he sees an imbalance in trade concessions. That is why he warned he would double punitive duties on Canadian steel and aluminu...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly steady/higher last week, with the notable exception of beef packer margins. Beef processing profits fell $20/head last week as fed cattle prices rose more than beef prices and a dip in slaughter weights reduced packers’ sales volume. Feedlot margins...
Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War
Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE release and stayed that way. While corn and soybeans traded mostly in the green ahead of the report, wheat had no reason to be bullish. There wa...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The price estimates for meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged from last month – and the season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. USDA’s global corn outlook is for higher foreign corn production: Increases in India, Russia, and Uk...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, dow...
Making Sense of the Economy
Q1 GDP growth is expected to be negative, per the Atlanta Fed “GDPNow.” Spending data is still generally positive through January, however, consumer confidence eroded sharply in February. In recent weeks, numerous economic indicators have shown decelerating spending and declining co...
Contextualizing the Scope of China’s Retaliatory Tariffs
The second Trump administration has roiled global markets in just its first few weeks in office, with some of the biggest impacts coming from the application of tariffs against major trading partners. These tariffs have, as expected, been met with retaliation from Canada, Mexico, and China. Fur...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
New Canadian Prime Minister Selected
Last night, Canada selected a new prime minister-elect, as Justin Trudeau's reign, since November 2015, comes to a close amid a trade war with the U.S. On 6 January, Trudeau announced his resignation, opening up his seat. In the meantime, Canada's Liberal Party announced that Mark Carney was ch...
Small Ideas; Technical Barriers; Advice to DOGE
Small Ideas U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the objective is to reduce the role of the government. This makes sense considering the explosion in government debt to the point investor Ray Dalio says otherwise there will be a debt crisis in three years. There are two ways to addr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.25/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent volatility in oilseed markets has caused the three legs of the U.S. soybean crush to see interesting and divergent dynamics in 2025. Soybean futures have seen steady pressure since early February as the advancing Brazilian harvest and concerns about retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trad...
First Jobs Report of Trump Administration Released
Economists predicted that the number of jobs added last month would be 160,000 ahead of the employment report, however, the actual figure was lower than expected. The report follows a month of widespread federal layoffs through Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), immig...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Canada Cattle Market
New trade disruptions, such as the 25 percent tariffs on Canadian feeder cattle, could possibly lead to more cattle being kept on pasture in Canada, which may lead to lower prices due to the retained, larger cattle population. Conversely, less beef being processed in the U.S. from Canadian catt...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 21-27, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 380,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 5 perce...
Oilseed Highlights: Tariffs Rock Global Oilseed Complex
The Market The CBOT soy complex saw dramatic volatility over the past week due to the impact of U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China and China’s retaliatory tariffs against U.S. soybeans. The tariffs have yet to substantially alter trade flows, though export sales and ship...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Egg Estimations
Eggs are in the news due to avian influenza reducing the total supply and inelastic demand causing prices to skyrocket. However, the impacts are felt even more dramatically in lower income countries where eggs have traditionally been a lower cost animal protein source. The Netherlands is the to...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
It’s Tarriff Day!
It’s tariff day! President Trump followed through on his plan to impose tariffs on various imported products across the economy. At 12:01 a.m. EST today, 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and an additional 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy products went into effect. Pres...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Tariff Tuesday; Profit for Eggs; Green Goals Implode
Tariff Tuesday As usual, there is some agreement with Donald Trump on his goal, in this case – improved terms of trade for a country running a perpetual trillion-dollar trade deficit. But then his negotiating tactic is so over-the-top kinetic that it throws the baby out with the bath wate...
Livestock Industry Margins
Production margins across the livestock industry were mostly higher last week, except for the beef packing sector and closeout feedlot margins. Beef packer margins carved out another week of losses and are narrowly hovering above 10-year lows. Packers have been aggressively slowing fed cattle p...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Everything Will Be OK, Says Secretary Rollins
As President Trump gears up to roll out his sweeping tariff plans tomorrow, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is promising farmers she’ll be “in the room” to protect them from the economic consequences. Speaking to producers and industry groups at the Commodity Classic in C...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
USDA Oversight by Senate Committee
Yesterday, Judge William Alsup, of the U.S. District Court for the Northern California District, said the USDA firings were likely unlawful and ordered that the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) halt the action. That is a follow-on to 14 February when USDA issued a statement outlining the ac...
WPI 2025/26 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook
Following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and the release of the agency’s initial 2025/26 outlooks, WPI has updated our major crop forecasts for the coming marketing year as well. Our latest model runs indicate a more bearish outlook for corn as ending stocks are forecast to incr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...
Livestock Roundup: 2025 Outlook
Today is the 2025 USDA Outlook Conference, a fitting time to look at commodity forecasts for the upcoming year. Below is USDA’s outlook for the livestock and products commodities. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) cattle report was released on 31 January, showing t...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.81/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $2.3...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Acreage Slightly Bullish; Policy Wildcards Abound
The soy complex has been under broad pressure over the past week with soyoil leading to the downside charge on weaker energy and outside vegoil markets, combined with ample technical selling. The weakness in soyoil pulled the soybean crush sharply lower with soyoil’s share of the crush ma...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 14-20, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 269,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 378,700 MT were up 63 percent from the previous week, but down 9 per...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Ag Futures Fall; Bears Trying to Run Away with Market
The CBOT was broadly lower on Wednesday with fund selling and a lack of bullish news or inputs pushing values into the red. Wheat was the biggest loser for the day and its weakness helped pull corn off an early rally where May futures tested the $5.00 level to no avail. The soy complex was on t...
Jones Act on Steroids; Aller Anfang ist Schwer; Copycat Limits
Jones Act on Steroids The Jones Act (Merchant Marine Act of 1920) requires that shipping between U.S. ports involve U.S.-built, owned, flagged and manned vessels. Cruise ships intentionally make a two hour stop in a foreign port to avoid the law. Half of U.S. overseas food aid must follow the l...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Further but Soy Complex Show Strength
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with risk-off trade and seasonal factors driving most of the day’s action. The markets are also seeing a good bit of repositioning heading into first notice day on Friday, which helped drive heavy-volume trade and some of spread trade dynamics. The soy...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.1...
Future of Grain Exports
Most nations pursue food self-sufficiency in the name of food security. This seemed silly when trade liberalization and comparative advantage promised more for less if countries simply opened their borders. But with the global trading system currently broken, current and future exporters are ha...
2025 Planted Acres: Corn to Expand
Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux, however, multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S. That is according to CoBank’s outlook, predicting an increase of 4.17 million acres of corn. For soybeans, tariffs on i...
Livestock Industry Margins
Production margins across the livestock industry were broadly lower last week, with weaker profits in the beef and pork packing sectors leading the way. Beef packer margins fell to -$135/head last week due to decreases in beef prices that offset slightly lower fed cattle prices. Margins are now...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.9/short ton, down $3 f...
Monday Policy Shorts
Pesticide Policy: New and controversial Secretary of HHS, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. says “Nothing is off limits” including agricultural chemicals in his proposed overhaul of U.S. food and drug safety policy. Meanwhile, Iowa is pursuing legislation that would exempt pesticide companies...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds
The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gains in the longer dated positions. South American weather and the volatile situation in macro markets with consumers pulling back each had th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed on February 1, 2025 was down one percent from a year ago. The total was 11.7 million head in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more cattle. Placements into feedlots during January 2025 totaled 1.82 million head, 2 percent above 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 7-13, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 532,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 232,700 MT were down 60 percent from the previous week and 43 percent f...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 11.7 million head, at 99 percent of last year. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.82 million head, 2 percent above 2024. Net placements were 1.76 million head. Marketings totaled 1.87 mill...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9125/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.8/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
U.S. Consumer Food Spending Trends
U.S. consumer spending patterns have undergone several significant shifts since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the food industry was no different. Since the pandemic, consumers have increased spending on food-away-from-home (FAFH) purchases dramatically while simultaneously cutting back on food-at-...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.2 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 99.4 percent and 100.3 percent of 1 February 2024. Marketing...
Oilseed Highlights: Strong Vegoil Markets Support Oilseeds
The Market The major action in global oilseed markets this past week has been in the vegoil realm, where tightening global supplies have pushed prices higher. In turn, oilseed markets, including those for soybeans and rapeseed/canola, have been mostly steady as the advancing Brazilian har...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, up $0.9...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Rollins versus Kennedy; Move Over Eggs; FSC and VAT
Rollins versus Kennedy With a vote of 72 – 28, Brooke Rollins became the 33rd U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and she achieved the fifth best Senate approval of Trump Cabinet members thus far. By contrast, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. received 20 fewer approval votes, and 20 more disapproval vote...
Market Commentary: Exports Bouy Corn; Wheat Rallies on Cold Snap Concerns
Grain futures were weaker overnight following the long weekend and after President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy. The markets bounced back Tuesday, however, with a positive export sales report buoying corn while fears of winterkill in the U.S. winter wheat crop pushed wheat futures...
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins
After getting a slow start to the nomination process, Brooke Rollins is now the confirmed USDA Secretary, by virtue of a 72-28 confirmation vote last week. She’s just the second woman to head the agency as Ann Veneman of California was Secretary in 2001 during President George...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6.0475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.385/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $293.8/short ton, down $2.1 fro...
EU’s Agriculture Vision; Reciprocal Trade; AI Pivot; War in Europe
EU’s Agriculture Vision The EU’s draft proposed “Vision” for agriculture will be released tomorrow and it is said to be “farmer centric,” which means it involves complications for the market. Its ‘Vision & objectives for 2040’ has many rhetori...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
Market Commentary: Weather, Economy, Tariffs All Jiggle the Market
There were surprisingly only modest trading volumes in this last trading session before a three-day holiday. There was no rush to escape positions. The livestock complex and soyoil closed lower, but the rest of the top trading ag commodities made gains on the day, but only cattle, soybeans, and...
President's Day Holiday
Monday, 17 February, is a U.S. holiday. The CME/CBOT will be closed along with our offices in observance of the President’s Day holiday. The next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 18 February...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $3.2 from yeste...
2025 Hog Pork Outlook Positive for Producers and Packers
Anyone following the hog and pork markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Earlier this week, the USDA issued a supportive outlook for the hog and pork markets in 2025, which helped...
No GMO Corn Ban by Mexico
Last Wednesday, the Mexican government formally repealed an import ban on genetically modified corn after the U.S. successfully argued the measure violated its commitments under a North American free trade deal. Here’s how we got here. In 2018, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, i.e., “t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Outlook
Beef production is now forecast at 26.632 million pounds, an increase of 775 million pounds (+3 percent) from the January forecast. Before taking this number at face value, however, it’s important to consider how the USDA constructs its forecasts. If there is a significant change in marke...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7775/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $1.4 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 31-February 6, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 569,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 577,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 85...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2775/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
Powell and Trump Showdown on Capitol Hill
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last month that he would not resign from his position, even if asked to by Trump. Since the President did not move to oust him, he’s stayed in place. Moreover, at today’s hearings before the Senate Banking Committee, the Federal Reserve se...
U.S. Africa Relations; Money versus Regulation
U.S. Africa Relations The Biden Administration started but failed to complete regional agreements like the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Prosperity (IP3) and the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity. Some House members still think U.S. relations in Asia are important and have called for...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296.6/short ton, down $3.9 fr...
WASDE Soybeans - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of soybeans for the 2024/25 season. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound. The projection for global endi...
WASDE Corn - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of corn for the 2024/25 season. The projected season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. ...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The projection for global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 was lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 mill...
Moral Reciprocity
President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are mostly pure protectionism. Canada, Brazil and Mexico are the main suppliers, not the state-driven over-production of China. But now the President says he is going to impose reciprocal tariffs, matching dollar for dollar (percent...
Livestock Industry Margins
U.S. meat packer margins fell further last week as beef and, to a lesser extent pork, values contracted while animal procurement costs remain high. WPI’s models estimate beef packers lost $145/head last week, which is the second-largest weekly loss since our models began in 2010. Pork pac...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Trump’s World
China is set to implement retaliatory tariffs on a variety of U.S. goods starting as soon as today, further intensifying trade tensions between the two economic giants. The new tariffs, ranging from 10 to 15 percent will target American exports such as crude oil, liquefied natural gas, farm equ...
Greer Approval; Tariffs and Trading Partners; Executive Power; Tech Reality
Greer Approval Jamieson Greer is expected to win approval from the Senate Finance Committee tomorrow to become the next U.S. Trade Representative. His hearing last week was notable mostly for the dissatisfaction in the Congress over trade policy under Biden and now under Trump. Former USTR Kath...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.915/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.5/short ton, down $0.9 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.4/short ton, down $5 f...
WPI 2025 Acreage Outlook
With the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook forum happening at the end of this month and planting season a little more than four weeks away for parts of the U.S., the industry is turning its attention to the acreage outlook for 2025. This year offers significant differences from recent conditions t...
U.S. Food Aid Status
The Trump Administration’s placement of the U.S. Agency for International Development on ice has sparked a firestorm in Washington. Critics of the agency point to an NGO industrial complex that works contrary to some American policy goals and diverts money from needy Americans. Supporters...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 24-30, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 438,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 4 percent from the previous week, but up 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 264,800 MT were down 55 percent from the previous week and 24 per...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $306.4/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Market Commentary: Volatile As Long As Tariffs Are Uncertain
The big news in the ag commodity markets Wednesday was the pullback in soybean futures as traders remain wary of the political tensions and tariff developments between Washington and Beijing. If this doesn’t sound like a major news story, you’d be correct, but this was about as even...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9325/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $5...
Divergence of Markets; Fear No Beer; Little Net Gain
Divergence of Markets Food away from home has been outpacing food at home as the cost of human services has written. The categories on the rise include meat, eggs, produce, and alcohol. Food prices are unlikely to descend and even food price discounter Walmart has struggled to restrain what the...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Tariff Relief; Cattle Selloff Extends to Second Day
Markets were encouraged by the fact both Canada and Mexico were able to secure 30-day delays on Trump’s tariff plans, which offers hope the duties are indeed a negotiating tactic rather than a steadfast policy platform. The big issue remains the 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and Chi...
Unbridled Confidence; Good Governance
Unbridled Confidence As President Trump’s tariffs were about to go into effect on Canada and Mexico, a farmer representative gave assurance that they would not go into effect. He was confident that there would be a deal. Now the January Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer on...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.945/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, up $10.3 from ye...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock producer margins were mostly higher last week as gains in physical cattle prices and deferred hog futures supported profitability expectations. Feedlot margins for both placements and closeouts rose sharply last week, and in the case of closeout marketings neared all-time record highs...
Market Commentary: Tariff Whiplash
News of President Trump’s tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada drove the agricultural and macroeconomic markets on Monday with seemingly every tick, dip, and rally stemming from political factors. Over the weekend, President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods as well...
Agencies and Buildings; Reactions to Tariffs; USMCA Civil Disobedience
Agencies and Buildings Donald Trump’s flurry of actions to upset the status quo in Washington is upsetting bureaucrats, but perhaps not Democrats. When your opponent is digging a hole to fall into, get out of the way. As Steven Englander of Standard Chartered framed it, “He seems to...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $2.6 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds still engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Funds expanded their long position in corn by 7 percent and are now just about 17,000 contract shy of their seasonal record long position. Funds were n...
Market Commentary: Tariffs More Than Weather
President Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow eclipsed concerns about South American weather and sent much of the agricultural futures complex into the red on Friday. Both countries will retaliate with Canada saying it will be...
Cattle Inventory Report: U.S. Cattle Herd Still in Contraction
USDA released its January Cattle Inventory report today. The U.S. cattle herd is still in a contraction phase. The total inventory of all cattle and calves as of 1 January was 86.7 million head, down 500,000 head from last year. Key numbers from today’s report are: The cattle on f...
Tariff Follies Begin; Ludicrous Lutnick; Hill-arious Committee Picks
Tariff Follies Begin There is playing from strength, like having the leverage of oversized trade deficits, and then there is overplaying one’s hand. Blanket 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico for ephemeral reasons fentanyl and immigration, two things Mr. Trump cannot even control in...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.595/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.42/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $3.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day with Wheat Hot, The Rest Not
Today’s trading session pretty much followed the overnight with wheat notching a third day of gains but traders taking a breather on corn, beans, and cattle. While wheat is girded by doubtful moisture conditions in the northern Black Sea region, the corn and soybean markets do not want to...
January Cattle Inventory Report Preview
Tomorrow, the USDA will release its January Cattle Inventory Report. Given USDA’s decision to drop the July mid-year report due to budget constraints, tomorrow’s inventory report has been highly anticipated. On Monday of this week, WPI noted the significance of the upcoming report.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 17-23, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 456,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 96 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 588,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 97 percent fro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.665/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $5.1 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Lead CBOT Higher; Cattle Correct Ahead of Inventory Report
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday due to the bullish influences of wheat and corn. The two grains saw support from Black Sea and South American weather impacts, respectively, with production outlooks for both regions falling. That put futures in a bullish mood with funds expanding net lon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.97/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $8.2 from y...
Transatlantic Uncertainty
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says that the Administration is still on track to impose a 25 percent tariff on Canada and Mexico this Saturday, unless they take undefined steps on immigration and drugs, and the President is still thinking about imposing a 10 percent tariff on Chin...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain but Lack Conviction; More All-Time Highs for Cattle
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday in what was mostly a technically driven corrective bounce. With South America’s weather still not perfect and various harvest/planting delays ongoing, there is a need to maintain some risk premium in prices. At the same time, however, overall supplies (es...
WTO Epiphany; Trump Treats Ag Horribly
WTO Epiphany Keith Rockwell is a trade policy professional. The lead spokesman for the WTO for many years, he was a cheerleader for the new world order and the opportunities it presented. He emphasized the importance of reaching agreement at each successively failed WTO ministerial. But Rockwel...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $0.8 from yes...
Trump Orders Freeze on Federal Grants and Loans, Including Ag Spending
Yesterday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) circulated a memo that directed federal agencies to “temporarily pause all activities related to obligations or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance.” The memo states that “in Fiscal Year 2024, of the nearly $10...
Livestock Industry Margins
Rising animal costs pressured beef and pork packer margins last week while offering a boost to livestock feeders. Most notably, feedlot margins improved significantly last week due to record-high fed cattle prices and weaker feed costs, though placement margins are still negative due to high fe...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Tariff Threats Ease; Cattle Surge to New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-tat trade war over the weekend. Sunday saw both the U.S. and Colombian presidents threaten each other’s country with 25 percent tariffs...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.8/short ton, down $4.1...
Un-Whole of Government; Apex Predator; Heavy Lift
Un-Whole of Government President Trump’s memorandum last week announcing his America First Trade Policy (AFTP) was issued to five federal departments, two of which are only tangentially involved in trade policy. It skipped over the federal department overseeing more than six percent of U...
January Cattle on Feed Report Bullish
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.8 million head, 99 percent of last year. The smaller inventory was driven by increased marketings and decreased placements. The placement data was bullish, coming in...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latter. There were new contract highs, again, in cattle. Overall weakness was blamed on Argentina’s announced lower tax rates on commodity...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 10-16, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 164,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 201,300 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 41 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.865/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5575/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, down $10...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on January 1, 2025 – down 1 percent from January 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.64 million head, 3 percent below 2023. Marketings of fed cattle during December t...
Rollins Confirmation Hearing
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, the Senate Agriculture Committee held a confirmation hearing on the nomination of Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of USDA. As Gary noted, she “rolled” through the hearings “poised, confident, charming” and had done the groundwork as...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still plenty of strength. Corn remains up about a nickel for the week, beans up more than 30-cents and while wheat dipped today, the large gains l...
Rollins Rolled; Cluelessness at the Top
Rollins Rolled Poised, confident, charming - USDA Secretary-Designate Brooke Rollins hit the trifecta today at her confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. She mostly just needed to show that she supported U.S. agriculture. After all, Donald Trump won over 98 percent of the...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish Feeder Pig Market
Bullish feeder pig prices could signal an expected return to improved profitability for hog production later this year. The 17 January National Direct Feeder Pig Report showed the weighted average (cash and formula) price of 10-12 pound early weaned pigs was $82.37 per head on...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8975/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.655/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $0.5 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat on Profit Taking, Tariff Talk; Cattle Hit $200 for First Time
Except for soymeal and the livestock markets, the CBOT was lower on Wednesday with traders booking profits and taking a more cautious approach after the recent runup in prices. Too, rhetoric out of the White House is keeping traders guessing on the possible application of and retaliation to var...
Transatlantic Tariffication; Biofuel Battles
Transatlantic Tariffication President Trump’s bromance with big tech billionaires has refocused his attention on Europe. The large penalties and regulatory hurdles being imposed by Brussels on America’s ANTMAMA (Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon) are being fram...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were decidedly mixed last week with diverging trends developing across the industry. Beef packer margins gained for the second straight week thanks to stronger beef prices that offset higher fed cattle prices, while feedlot margins dipped for both placements and close...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Surge as Dollar Slides
The first full day of the Trump Presidency saw CBOT grain futures surge as the U.S. dollar pulled back sharply. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all saw strong buying influences after the long U.S. holiday weekend with traders seeing bullish news from several points. The first point was President Trum...
Day One Trump Executive Orders
Shortly after his swearing-in as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump signed a slew of Executive Orders (EO) putting the wheels in motion for his policy agenda. EOs are signed, written, and published directives from the President regarding the operations of the federal governme...
Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil?; Billionaire Farm Boy; Ignoring the Labels
Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil? The President, aka “Tariff Man” pronounced at his inauguration that, “we will tariff and tax foreign countries.” However, the tariffs did not come on day one like some other policy changes. The warning is that, “tariffs delayed are not ta...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the biggest feature of the report was funds’ exchange of a small net short in soybeans for a modest long of 58,000 contracts, after they bought...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $2.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Market Gets a Bounce Ahead of Long Weekend
Commodity markets retraced some of the losses from Thursday, ending higher on Friday but not necessarily for the week. Corn is on a roll, nearing heights not seen in more than a year, but even cattle lost some of their bullish glow this week. 01172025MC_weeklychange.png 22.13 KBA key vect...
Martin Luther King Holiday
Please note that Monday, 20 January is a U.S. federal holiday in honor of the remarkable achievements of Martin Luther King, Jr. As a result, both the markets and World Perspectives, Inc. are closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives report will be published on Tuesday, 21 January. ...
Transitioning to Trump at USDA and in Congress
Monday is the Presidential Inaugural. This week has seen several Senate confirmation hearings on cabinet appointees. Both the Republicans and Democrats, Trump transition team, and Congress are prepping for the new Administration which will show up to work on Tuesday morning. &...
Political Sillies
No Introspection: Joe Biden’s farewell address appears to have been written by a 25-year-old at the socialist leaning People’s Policy Project. He claims historic success but warns the country will become an oligarchic dystopia. He warned about a “dangerous concentration of power” amidst “very f...
Cow-Calf Revenues Set Record in 2024, Profitability to Continue in 2025
The rally in feeder cattle and calf prices from September 2024 through mid-January 2025 provided cow-calf producers with near-record profitability for the 2024 calf crop. Higher prices for calves and feeder cattle, combined with record- or near-record high values for cull cows, pushed cow-calf...
Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake
Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than nothing, and something is all it takes to put brakes on a borderline market. The day’s trading closely tracked the overnight, with red showi...
Livestock Roundup: Food Inflation Driven by Proteins
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December yesterday. For the month, the CPI was up 0.4 percent, while year-over-year it was up 2.9 percent. The core CPI – excluding energy and food – was up 3.2 percent, well above the Fed’s 2 percent target...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 3-9, 2025Wheat: Net sales of 513,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 196,500 MT were down 53 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.19/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.4/short ton, down $7.6 f...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Trends and Acreage Outlook
U.S. Soybean Crush Dynamics On Wednesday, National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) said its members crushed an all-time record volume of soybeans of 206.6 Mbu, up 7 percent from November and up 5.7 percent from December 2023. Soyoil stocks came in at 1.24 billion pounds, which was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Squeezing Russian Wheat; Save the Rats; Rollins Delayed
Squeezing Russia with WheatEurope is afraid that Donald Trump is ready to capitulate to Vladimir Putin next week when he becomes president. But Trump has appointed a fair number of geopolitical hawks to his team. He may see the war as senseless, but he doesn’t want to be perceived as a loser. R...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather
The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as fully priced into futures, which left markets to return to trading the South American weather outlooks and export trends. Both of these facto...
Produce Price Inflation Mixed Signals
Producer price inflation (PPI) ended 2024 up 0.2 percent in December. That is a modest gain and was below pre-report expectations. Nonetheless, the PPI was 3.3 higher than a year ago, and substantially higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. That stickiness trend will keep inflation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $2 from...
Impacts on U.S. Ethanol Trade
Brazil is the second largest producer and use of ethanol after the U.S. The U.S. has an import tariff on ethanol of 2.5 percent ad valorem and has asked Brazil to reciprocate. Brazil maintains an import tariff of 11.75 percent on ethanol. Nonetheless, U.S. exports of ethanol have been on a mete...
Tariff Adjustment/Musk; Cynical Biden Trade Goals; Biofuel Proposal Disappoints
Tariff Adjustment /MuskRecognizing the inflation threat of sudden and large import tariffs, Donald Trump’s economic team: Scott Bessent (Treasury), Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council), and Stephen Miran (Council of Economic Advisers) are reportedly working on a plan of more gradual 2-5 pe...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were broadly higher last week with the one exception being placement margins for feedlots and closeout margins for farrow-to-finish hog operations. Higher feeder animal costs drove expected margins for last week’s feeder cattle placements lower, with profits for the i...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ activity matched up with expectations and general market direction. Note that the data, which captures funds’ positions through Tuesday, 7 Jan...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trying to Find New Ranges
The CBOT saw more bullish influences on Monday from Friday’s WASDE report in which USDA slashed the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields. After considering the numbers and implications over the weekend, traders decided there was enough demand for both products and, if USDA’s latest numbers are cor...
Coming Nominations Hearings
President-elect Trump’s inauguration is in one week. In the meantime, the Senate will soon start confirmation hearings on several of his cabinet nominees. Here’s a look at a few of those upcoming hearings.The Energy and Public Works Committee will consider the nomination of former Rep. Lee Zeld...
Greedflation’s Weaknesses; UPF Attack
Greedflation’s WeaknessesThe U.S. government is suing apartment owners for using RealPage software algorithms for setting rents. The grocery industry may be the next target of this assault. Critics charge RealPage of price fixing since its software optimizes what rental companies can charge. Be...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.8/short ton, up $9.5 from yester...
Market Commentary: Big Bullish Whopper
This last trading day of the first full trading week of 2025 came in like a whimper and went out with a bang. The trading day started with a notably sub-par Export Sales report from USDA. New commitments for wheat, corn, and soybeans all hit a marketing year low for export sales last week...
45Z Tax Credit Preliminary Guidance Released; No GREET Model Yet
As WPI reported on 6 December, the Treasury Department had promised that the compliance regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuels Production credit would be released by the end of the Biden Administration, implying no later than 19 January, the day before President-elect Trump’s inauguration. T...
Updated: The Historic Context for January WASDE Yield Surprises
Errata: The original version of this article incorrectly state the January 2018 soybean yield estimate at 50.6 BPA, instead of the true February (which made up for the delayed January report) estimate of 51.6 BPA. All statistics related to this yield estimate and charts/tables have been correct...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.705/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, up $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 27, 2024 – January 2, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 111,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 21 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 414,300 MT were up 9 percent f...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with pressure from macroeconomic markets increasing. In addition to sparking trade wars with nearly every major U.S. trading partner, U.S. Preside...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2...
Barriers are Good; Squeezed in the Trade War; Calculating the Impacts; Tax is a Tax
Barriers are Good The issue de jour is tariffs. Donald Trump is vilified by conventionalists for the self-induced wound of raising this single barrier to business. As a businessman, Trump sees a complex web of market barriers. Domestic regulations, domestic taxes, but also foreign tariffs (taxe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading under the new exchange rate regulations, so it took the markets a few days to adjust. Regarding the official exchange rate, it opened on Monday...
2025/2026 Trade Update
Almost none of the primary U.S. grain or oilseed offerings have made a solid start to 2025-26, as export sales for the upcoming marketing year are largely near multi-year lows. This is not yet a huge problem since the typical buying periods for the season’s supplies are mostly still in th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major ag market, with the notable exception of cattle futures. The buying was most notable in soybeans where, despite the trade war, funds flippe...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 483,500 MT were up 43 percent from the previous week and 11 percent f...
Cattle on Feed - April 2025
U.S. cattle on Feed totaled totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2025 - 2 percent below April 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head, 5 percent above 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.73 million head, 1 percent above 2024. O...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 18 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 21 April. ...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report a Day Early
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today because the markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. The total inventory of cattle on feed was 11.6 million head on 1 April, down 2 percent from April 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head,...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Trade War Machinations; Chicken War; Uncomfortable Europe; MAHA Coke
Trade War Machinations EU trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic left Washington saying the Trump Administration’s trade policy goals were unclear. Yet, the EU rejected Washington’s offer to drop tariffs if Brussels reduces trade ties with China and removes food safety barriers to American...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 16 April)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 11 April 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight The trade war(s) and the possible Section 301 penalties against Chinese vessels docking at U.S. ports have kept freight markets exceptionally volatile in recent weeks. This week’s trend wa...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Heifers on Feed Drop Below Replacement Heifers
One of the metrics we’ve been watching as a sign of herd rebuilding is the number of heifers as a percent of on feed inventory. However, we’re in new territory. For the first time since heifer on feed reporting began in 1996, the inventory of replacement heifers has fallen below Hei...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg’s Tyler Cowen, the world trading order is “weighted against the exporting interests of the U.S.” Moreover, it is growing wor...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate, along with a unification of the official and financial exchange rates. The move includes the eli...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, neither of which was a surprise. Massie has been a skeptic of the bill all along and Spartz famousl...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the trade war’s impact on export markets. Surveys indicate that the American public expects tariffs to raise their cost of living. They al...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
WASDE Corn
Corn - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong
The Market Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s massive reversal and rally in the same markets. The net result of this is that soy complex futures are largely little changed – especi...
Livestock Roundup: Latest CPI Data, Eggs Still in Driver’s Seat
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the “all items index” increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adj...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 339,100 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 16 per...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
War, what is it Good For?
It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. and China seem likely to be permanent. The public will only accept the high cost of this war if they understand and accept its goals. History...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Some Clarity, But Long Haul
Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Breaking too fast to negotiate with other countries would look weak, and retaining tariffs is still viewed by some in the White House as neces...
Ethanol to the Rescue!
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit the year-round sale of E15 fuel through the summer of 2025. The letter encouraged the use of temporary waivers under the Clean Air Act to exte...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
Except for beef packer and feedlot placement margins, cattle and hog industry profits were broadly lower last week with the pork industry seeing the most pronounced weakness. Pork packer margins drifted lower on weaker pork values and despite slightly lower hog purchase costs. Last week’s...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Trade and Jobs Reports
Now that the Administration’s tariff plans are out, what is happening to the trade deficit? After hitting a record in January, the trade deficit shrank to $122.7 billion in February as exports grew by $8 billion while imports declined slightly. Still, that leaves the monthly trade deficit...
Tight Supplies, Strong U.S. Demand to Support Cattle Prices Despite Trade War
Anyone following the beef and cattle markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Now, the outlook is further complicated by the tariffs that will be placed on Mexican feeder cattle impo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
While Swinging for the Fence
Early reactions to President Trump’s tariff war are as expected. Major foreign trading partners are expressing shock and assuring Washington that if there is no negotiated settlement, there will be an appropriate response. Domestic pundits emphasize this is a tax on American consumers and...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 499,600 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from th...
Oilseed Highlights: “Liberation Day” Rattles Markets
The Market Prior to the Liberation Day tariffs that President Trump announced late Wednesday, oilseed markets were seeing noted strength due to renewed hopes for biodiesel demand. Earlier this week, news broke that members of the oil and renewable energy sectors met with the EPA to discus...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
“Reciprocal” Tariffs; Apocalypse Day, or Not; Misdirection
“Reciprocal” Tariffs President Trump’s political opponents acknowledge he is a great marketer and his multi-day hype of a “Liberation Day” came to a head today with the announcement of a minimum 10 percent import tariff and rates at generally half those charged by...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Uncertainty Ends
Trump’s tariff threats are said to be causing uncertainty, though its intent is transparent. One thing tomorrow’s release of the tariff plan will not end is the duplicity of its opponents. Let’s look at some of the sturm und drang and its meaning. East Asia: A joint statement...
Quick Hits: Agency Employment, Grains Reports, and Biofuels
USDA Retirement: USDA employees have until 8 Apil to decide whether to participate in the administration's so-called deferred resignation program. USDA employees were sent an email last night titled “Deferred Resignation Program 2.0,” which says they must make a decision by the dead...
Livestock Industry Margins
Near-record negative margins for beef packers continue to dominate discussion of livestock industry margins this week. Beef packer profits rebounded slightly last week on the heels of firmer beef markets, but remain at -$176/head, which is among the weakest levels in the past two decades. Feedl...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
Liberation Day Minus One; States Rights, National Losses; The Hammer and USDA
Liberation Day Minus One The Trump team is said to be weighing 20 percent across the board tariffs, reducing the share of U.S. funding of the WTO, and critic James Carville says the Administration has collapsed in less than three months. Morgan Stanley calls all the stated goals for tariffs as...
Liberation Day is Coming!
President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "all countries." However, the Administration has yet to reveal many of the key details of his plan, or when actual duties will be implemented...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.23/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $1 f...
Hog Outlook Shows Smaller Production and Exports, but Strong Demand in 2025
The March Hogs and Pigs report offered the industry a much-needed look at what the supply situation is and is likely to be for the coming year. As WPI readers likely already know, the report showed that all-hogs and pigs inventories were essentially equal to last year’s numbers with marke...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 14-20, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 100,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 428,700 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week, but...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1675/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.5 million head. This was down slightly from 1 March 2024 and down 1 percent from 1 December. Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, and...
Oilseed Highlights: Soyoil, Rapeseed Rally on Demand Surge
The Market The big movement in oilseed markets this week is the rally in soyoil futures, which are up 4 percent from last week. The market has rallied due to its large discount against palm oil futures and recent gains in rapeseed prices that are supporting oilseed and vegoils broadly. U...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.01/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $1...
Trade War Maneuvering; MAHA HaHa; Russian Grain Agreement
Trade War Maneuvering Wall Street trading sank lower on word that the White House will announce today tariffs on automobile imports. While some U.S. farm groups are asking for import protections, others are advising a more strategic trade approach that opens up overseas markets. It is reported...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $...
U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption
U.S. manufacturing energy consumption has continued to increase, according to the EIA’s recently released survey results for 2022. The agency conducts and releases the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) every four years. The latest iteration shows the third consecutive increas...
Transatlantic Provocations; Indian Adjustments; Grain Industry Threats
Transatlantic Provocations No one knows what to fully expect on 2 April and the launch of President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Bill Reinsch at the Center for Strategic and International Studies observes that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum likely has the best three componen...
Livestock Industry Margins
The big story in livestock industry margins continues to be the record-breaking weakness in beef packer profits, which fell another $50/head last week to -$193/head. The surge in cattle prices and declines in slaughter weights more than offset gains in beef values and left packers with the lowe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
Monday Policy Potpourri
Hill Trade Advice: The U.S. House Ways & Means’ Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on American trade negotiation priorities. Witnesses include those from agriculture, those impacted by trade retaliation, services, and former Republican trade officials. The Trump Adminis...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $2.7...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Hot CoF Report After the Close
The fundamentals are unchanged but there is a cloud overhead due to the impending tariff war and the headwinds that portends. So, the market today and all week is a matter of treading water until more definitive cues emerge. In fact, today was so mixed that soybeans and soyoil fell even as typi...
Cattle on Feed - March 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head was 11.6 million head on March 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below March 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.55 million head, 18 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.6 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were 1.55 million head, 82 percent of last year, and marketings at 1.74 million head were 91 percent of Fe...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.2...
Cow-Calf Revenues and Producer Responses to Inflation
Southern Plains cow-calf producers saw excellent profitability in 2024, which, by some measures, was the best in history. Current prices indicate that 2025 has similar potential to break profitability records and put the industry on solid financial footing. The impacts of inflation, however, in...
Market Commentary: Export Sales, Weather Mix the Markets
Wheat was the ball and chain while corn was the balloon in today’s trading. The weekly USDA Export Sales report from USDA was notable for wheat with washouts in old crop sales leading to a marketing year low, but new crop sales going blockbuster as Guatemala, Mexico and Panama all sought...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 7-13, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 248,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,900 MT were up noticeably from the prev...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Exports Stumble; China Crush Falls
The Market The weekly Export Sales report was disappointing for soybeans as old crop net sales fell by half from the prior week and new crop net sales registered only 10 KMT – down sharply from the prior week’s volume of 43.1 KMT. Old crop exports were also lower than the prio...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
Market Commentary: U.S., Paris Wheat Diverge; Corn Consolidates; New Highs for Cattle
Except for the wheat market, the CBOT and CME largely continued their existing trends on Wednesday. Wheat futures offered perhaps the most interesting trade as HRW futures reversed course from their recent weather-induced rally and pulled back. The spot KCBT contract settled below $6.00, which...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.7/short ton, down $2.2...
Trade War Fractures
Today was National Agriculture Trade Day, an effort to boost awareness about the benefits of trade to the sector. However, the milestone also sparked debate about the increasing U.S. agricultural trade deficit, and the advisability of the Trump tariff war. President Trump’s goal is...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly lower last week as rising input costs crimped the profitability outlook. Declines were greatest for feedlot placements, where margins fell over $50/head due to higher feeder cattle costs. Beef packer margins saw the next greatest declines with profits drop...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal
Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight day. Unexpected strength in the physical cattle and beef markets has propelled futures higher this week, with funds rapidly expanding already...
Cattle Markets Still Screwy
The cattle marketing year is off to a strange start. In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year. This component of production is driven by two factors: heavier carcass weights of steers and heifers, and the proportion of...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, down $...
‘Dirty 15’; Ukraine’s Ag Exports; WTO and National Security
‘Dirty 15’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump Administration may provide one unique number as the newly applied general tariff on each country supplying goods to the U.S. The few countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. may escape receiving a number but fo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.155/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.3/short ton, down $1.6 from...
Budget Deal Made Just in Time
The House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate have both passed the full-year Continuing Appropriations Act, which would fund the government under a continuing resolution (CR) for the remainder of fiscal year (FY) 2025. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that this bill would set...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egg shortages and rising prices are not just a feature of U.S. agriculture right now, German and northern European markets broadly are experiencing similar shortages. German sources note the supply of “barn eggs” is too small for “prevailing demand”...
Deciphering Trump
The first 100 days of the second Trump presidency doesn’t end until 30 April and is a meaningless metric because Donald Trump’s initiatives will last four years. Washington and the world are not handling the first 55 days very well and they need to figure it out or there will contin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of their long (74,000 contracts) and are now long just 132,000 contracts, or less than half of their position just a few weeks ago. That rapid li...
Market Commentary: Week of Turmoil, Uncertainty, but Not All Dark
There was little in terms of new fundamentals today, and on generally lower volume the board saw mixed trading and results. It was a big week for HRW as the acuity of the drought in the Southern Plains becomes clearer. Overall, the trends are as follows: It was the fourth week in a row lower f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.16/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $305.9/short ton, down $1.2 f...
CONAB Forecasts Record Soybean Production
Brazilian soybean farmers will reap an even bigger crop in the 2024/25 season than previously expected, according to forecasts released by the Brazilian crop agency CONAB yesterday. Brazil's soybean crop, which farmers are harvesting now, is expected to total 167.37 MMT, about 1.3 M...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $307.1/short ton, up $6.9 from...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE
Historical red meat and poultry supply and use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions in slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and production data. Total red meat and poultry production for 2025 is raised on higher beef and chicken production forecasts, which is partially offset by lower por...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade Wars Continue to Drive Markets
The Market Of course, the big news in oilseed markets this past week has revolved around tariffs and retaliatory tariffs – most notably China and the EU’s reactions to President Trump’s new tariffs. Both China and the EU announced retaliatory tariffs that included additi...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $1...
Tariff Waste; Changing the EU; Cost of Data; Fake Food Safety
Tariff Waste Now that Trump tariffs are going into full swing, the question is for what objective? The President says other countries treat America unfairly, indicating he sees an imbalance in trade concessions. That is why he warned he would double punitive duties on Canadian steel and aluminu...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly steady/higher last week, with the notable exception of beef packer margins. Beef processing profits fell $20/head last week as fed cattle prices rose more than beef prices and a dip in slaughter weights reduced packers’ sales volume. Feedlot margins...
Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War
Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE release and stayed that way. While corn and soybeans traded mostly in the green ahead of the report, wheat had no reason to be bullish. There wa...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The price estimates for meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged from last month – and the season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. USDA’s global corn outlook is for higher foreign corn production: Increases in India, Russia, and Uk...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, dow...
Making Sense of the Economy
Q1 GDP growth is expected to be negative, per the Atlanta Fed “GDPNow.” Spending data is still generally positive through January, however, consumer confidence eroded sharply in February. In recent weeks, numerous economic indicators have shown decelerating spending and declining co...
Contextualizing the Scope of China’s Retaliatory Tariffs
The second Trump administration has roiled global markets in just its first few weeks in office, with some of the biggest impacts coming from the application of tariffs against major trading partners. These tariffs have, as expected, been met with retaliation from Canada, Mexico, and China. Fur...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
New Canadian Prime Minister Selected
Last night, Canada selected a new prime minister-elect, as Justin Trudeau's reign, since November 2015, comes to a close amid a trade war with the U.S. On 6 January, Trudeau announced his resignation, opening up his seat. In the meantime, Canada's Liberal Party announced that Mark Carney was ch...
Small Ideas; Technical Barriers; Advice to DOGE
Small Ideas U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the objective is to reduce the role of the government. This makes sense considering the explosion in government debt to the point investor Ray Dalio says otherwise there will be a debt crisis in three years. There are two ways to addr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.25/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent volatility in oilseed markets has caused the three legs of the U.S. soybean crush to see interesting and divergent dynamics in 2025. Soybean futures have seen steady pressure since early February as the advancing Brazilian harvest and concerns about retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trad...
First Jobs Report of Trump Administration Released
Economists predicted that the number of jobs added last month would be 160,000 ahead of the employment report, however, the actual figure was lower than expected. The report follows a month of widespread federal layoffs through Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), immig...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Canada Cattle Market
New trade disruptions, such as the 25 percent tariffs on Canadian feeder cattle, could possibly lead to more cattle being kept on pasture in Canada, which may lead to lower prices due to the retained, larger cattle population. Conversely, less beef being processed in the U.S. from Canadian catt...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 21-27, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 380,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 5 perce...
Oilseed Highlights: Tariffs Rock Global Oilseed Complex
The Market The CBOT soy complex saw dramatic volatility over the past week due to the impact of U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China and China’s retaliatory tariffs against U.S. soybeans. The tariffs have yet to substantially alter trade flows, though export sales and ship...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Egg Estimations
Eggs are in the news due to avian influenza reducing the total supply and inelastic demand causing prices to skyrocket. However, the impacts are felt even more dramatically in lower income countries where eggs have traditionally been a lower cost animal protein source. The Netherlands is the to...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
It’s Tarriff Day!
It’s tariff day! President Trump followed through on his plan to impose tariffs on various imported products across the economy. At 12:01 a.m. EST today, 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and an additional 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy products went into effect. Pres...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Tariff Tuesday; Profit for Eggs; Green Goals Implode
Tariff Tuesday As usual, there is some agreement with Donald Trump on his goal, in this case – improved terms of trade for a country running a perpetual trillion-dollar trade deficit. But then his negotiating tactic is so over-the-top kinetic that it throws the baby out with the bath wate...
Livestock Industry Margins
Production margins across the livestock industry were mostly higher last week, except for the beef packing sector and closeout feedlot margins. Beef packer margins carved out another week of losses and are narrowly hovering above 10-year lows. Packers have been aggressively slowing fed cattle p...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Everything Will Be OK, Says Secretary Rollins
As President Trump gears up to roll out his sweeping tariff plans tomorrow, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is promising farmers she’ll be “in the room” to protect them from the economic consequences. Speaking to producers and industry groups at the Commodity Classic in C...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
USDA Oversight by Senate Committee
Yesterday, Judge William Alsup, of the U.S. District Court for the Northern California District, said the USDA firings were likely unlawful and ordered that the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) halt the action. That is a follow-on to 14 February when USDA issued a statement outlining the ac...
WPI 2025/26 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook
Following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and the release of the agency’s initial 2025/26 outlooks, WPI has updated our major crop forecasts for the coming marketing year as well. Our latest model runs indicate a more bearish outlook for corn as ending stocks are forecast to incr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...
Livestock Roundup: 2025 Outlook
Today is the 2025 USDA Outlook Conference, a fitting time to look at commodity forecasts for the upcoming year. Below is USDA’s outlook for the livestock and products commodities. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) cattle report was released on 31 January, showing t...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.81/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $2.3...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Acreage Slightly Bullish; Policy Wildcards Abound
The soy complex has been under broad pressure over the past week with soyoil leading to the downside charge on weaker energy and outside vegoil markets, combined with ample technical selling. The weakness in soyoil pulled the soybean crush sharply lower with soyoil’s share of the crush ma...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 14-20, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 269,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 378,700 MT were up 63 percent from the previous week, but down 9 per...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Ag Futures Fall; Bears Trying to Run Away with Market
The CBOT was broadly lower on Wednesday with fund selling and a lack of bullish news or inputs pushing values into the red. Wheat was the biggest loser for the day and its weakness helped pull corn off an early rally where May futures tested the $5.00 level to no avail. The soy complex was on t...
Jones Act on Steroids; Aller Anfang ist Schwer; Copycat Limits
Jones Act on Steroids The Jones Act (Merchant Marine Act of 1920) requires that shipping between U.S. ports involve U.S.-built, owned, flagged and manned vessels. Cruise ships intentionally make a two hour stop in a foreign port to avoid the law. Half of U.S. overseas food aid must follow the l...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Further but Soy Complex Show Strength
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with risk-off trade and seasonal factors driving most of the day’s action. The markets are also seeing a good bit of repositioning heading into first notice day on Friday, which helped drive heavy-volume trade and some of spread trade dynamics. The soy...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.1...
Future of Grain Exports
Most nations pursue food self-sufficiency in the name of food security. This seemed silly when trade liberalization and comparative advantage promised more for less if countries simply opened their borders. But with the global trading system currently broken, current and future exporters are ha...
2025 Planted Acres: Corn to Expand
Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux, however, multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S. That is according to CoBank’s outlook, predicting an increase of 4.17 million acres of corn. For soybeans, tariffs on i...
Livestock Industry Margins
Production margins across the livestock industry were broadly lower last week, with weaker profits in the beef and pork packing sectors leading the way. Beef packer margins fell to -$135/head last week due to decreases in beef prices that offset slightly lower fed cattle prices. Margins are now...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.9/short ton, down $3 f...
Monday Policy Shorts
Pesticide Policy: New and controversial Secretary of HHS, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. says “Nothing is off limits” including agricultural chemicals in his proposed overhaul of U.S. food and drug safety policy. Meanwhile, Iowa is pursuing legislation that would exempt pesticide companies...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds
The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gains in the longer dated positions. South American weather and the volatile situation in macro markets with consumers pulling back each had th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed on February 1, 2025 was down one percent from a year ago. The total was 11.7 million head in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more cattle. Placements into feedlots during January 2025 totaled 1.82 million head, 2 percent above 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 7-13, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 532,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 232,700 MT were down 60 percent from the previous week and 43 percent f...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 11.7 million head, at 99 percent of last year. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.82 million head, 2 percent above 2024. Net placements were 1.76 million head. Marketings totaled 1.87 mill...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9125/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.8/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
U.S. Consumer Food Spending Trends
U.S. consumer spending patterns have undergone several significant shifts since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the food industry was no different. Since the pandemic, consumers have increased spending on food-away-from-home (FAFH) purchases dramatically while simultaneously cutting back on food-at-...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.2 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 99.4 percent and 100.3 percent of 1 February 2024. Marketing...
Oilseed Highlights: Strong Vegoil Markets Support Oilseeds
The Market The major action in global oilseed markets this past week has been in the vegoil realm, where tightening global supplies have pushed prices higher. In turn, oilseed markets, including those for soybeans and rapeseed/canola, have been mostly steady as the advancing Brazilian har...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, up $0.9...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Rollins versus Kennedy; Move Over Eggs; FSC and VAT
Rollins versus Kennedy With a vote of 72 – 28, Brooke Rollins became the 33rd U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and she achieved the fifth best Senate approval of Trump Cabinet members thus far. By contrast, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. received 20 fewer approval votes, and 20 more disapproval vote...
Market Commentary: Exports Bouy Corn; Wheat Rallies on Cold Snap Concerns
Grain futures were weaker overnight following the long weekend and after President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy. The markets bounced back Tuesday, however, with a positive export sales report buoying corn while fears of winterkill in the U.S. winter wheat crop pushed wheat futures...
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins
After getting a slow start to the nomination process, Brooke Rollins is now the confirmed USDA Secretary, by virtue of a 72-28 confirmation vote last week. She’s just the second woman to head the agency as Ann Veneman of California was Secretary in 2001 during President George...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6.0475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.385/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $293.8/short ton, down $2.1 fro...
EU’s Agriculture Vision; Reciprocal Trade; AI Pivot; War in Europe
EU’s Agriculture Vision The EU’s draft proposed “Vision” for agriculture will be released tomorrow and it is said to be “farmer centric,” which means it involves complications for the market. Its ‘Vision & objectives for 2040’ has many rhetori...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
Market Commentary: Weather, Economy, Tariffs All Jiggle the Market
There were surprisingly only modest trading volumes in this last trading session before a three-day holiday. There was no rush to escape positions. The livestock complex and soyoil closed lower, but the rest of the top trading ag commodities made gains on the day, but only cattle, soybeans, and...
President's Day Holiday
Monday, 17 February, is a U.S. holiday. The CME/CBOT will be closed along with our offices in observance of the President’s Day holiday. The next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 18 February...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $3.2 from yeste...
2025 Hog Pork Outlook Positive for Producers and Packers
Anyone following the hog and pork markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Earlier this week, the USDA issued a supportive outlook for the hog and pork markets in 2025, which helped...
No GMO Corn Ban by Mexico
Last Wednesday, the Mexican government formally repealed an import ban on genetically modified corn after the U.S. successfully argued the measure violated its commitments under a North American free trade deal. Here’s how we got here. In 2018, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, i.e., “t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Outlook
Beef production is now forecast at 26.632 million pounds, an increase of 775 million pounds (+3 percent) from the January forecast. Before taking this number at face value, however, it’s important to consider how the USDA constructs its forecasts. If there is a significant change in marke...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7775/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $1.4 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 31-February 6, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 569,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 577,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 85...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2775/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
Powell and Trump Showdown on Capitol Hill
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last month that he would not resign from his position, even if asked to by Trump. Since the President did not move to oust him, he’s stayed in place. Moreover, at today’s hearings before the Senate Banking Committee, the Federal Reserve se...
U.S. Africa Relations; Money versus Regulation
U.S. Africa Relations The Biden Administration started but failed to complete regional agreements like the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Prosperity (IP3) and the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity. Some House members still think U.S. relations in Asia are important and have called for...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296.6/short ton, down $3.9 fr...
WASDE Soybeans - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of soybeans for the 2024/25 season. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound. The projection for global endi...
WASDE Corn - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of corn for the 2024/25 season. The projected season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. ...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The projection for global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 was lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 mill...
Moral Reciprocity
President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are mostly pure protectionism. Canada, Brazil and Mexico are the main suppliers, not the state-driven over-production of China. But now the President says he is going to impose reciprocal tariffs, matching dollar for dollar (percent...
Livestock Industry Margins
U.S. meat packer margins fell further last week as beef and, to a lesser extent pork, values contracted while animal procurement costs remain high. WPI’s models estimate beef packers lost $145/head last week, which is the second-largest weekly loss since our models began in 2010. Pork pac...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Trump’s World
China is set to implement retaliatory tariffs on a variety of U.S. goods starting as soon as today, further intensifying trade tensions between the two economic giants. The new tariffs, ranging from 10 to 15 percent will target American exports such as crude oil, liquefied natural gas, farm equ...
Greer Approval; Tariffs and Trading Partners; Executive Power; Tech Reality
Greer Approval Jamieson Greer is expected to win approval from the Senate Finance Committee tomorrow to become the next U.S. Trade Representative. His hearing last week was notable mostly for the dissatisfaction in the Congress over trade policy under Biden and now under Trump. Former USTR Kath...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.915/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.5/short ton, down $0.9 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.4/short ton, down $5 f...
WPI 2025 Acreage Outlook
With the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook forum happening at the end of this month and planting season a little more than four weeks away for parts of the U.S., the industry is turning its attention to the acreage outlook for 2025. This year offers significant differences from recent conditions t...
U.S. Food Aid Status
The Trump Administration’s placement of the U.S. Agency for International Development on ice has sparked a firestorm in Washington. Critics of the agency point to an NGO industrial complex that works contrary to some American policy goals and diverts money from needy Americans. Supporters...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 24-30, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 438,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 4 percent from the previous week, but up 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 264,800 MT were down 55 percent from the previous week and 24 per...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $306.4/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Market Commentary: Volatile As Long As Tariffs Are Uncertain
The big news in the ag commodity markets Wednesday was the pullback in soybean futures as traders remain wary of the political tensions and tariff developments between Washington and Beijing. If this doesn’t sound like a major news story, you’d be correct, but this was about as even...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9325/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $5...
Divergence of Markets; Fear No Beer; Little Net Gain
Divergence of Markets Food away from home has been outpacing food at home as the cost of human services has written. The categories on the rise include meat, eggs, produce, and alcohol. Food prices are unlikely to descend and even food price discounter Walmart has struggled to restrain what the...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Tariff Relief; Cattle Selloff Extends to Second Day
Markets were encouraged by the fact both Canada and Mexico were able to secure 30-day delays on Trump’s tariff plans, which offers hope the duties are indeed a negotiating tactic rather than a steadfast policy platform. The big issue remains the 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and Chi...
Unbridled Confidence; Good Governance
Unbridled Confidence As President Trump’s tariffs were about to go into effect on Canada and Mexico, a farmer representative gave assurance that they would not go into effect. He was confident that there would be a deal. Now the January Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer on...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.945/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, up $10.3 from ye...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock producer margins were mostly higher last week as gains in physical cattle prices and deferred hog futures supported profitability expectations. Feedlot margins for both placements and closeouts rose sharply last week, and in the case of closeout marketings neared all-time record highs...
Market Commentary: Tariff Whiplash
News of President Trump’s tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada drove the agricultural and macroeconomic markets on Monday with seemingly every tick, dip, and rally stemming from political factors. Over the weekend, President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods as well...
Agencies and Buildings; Reactions to Tariffs; USMCA Civil Disobedience
Agencies and Buildings Donald Trump’s flurry of actions to upset the status quo in Washington is upsetting bureaucrats, but perhaps not Democrats. When your opponent is digging a hole to fall into, get out of the way. As Steven Englander of Standard Chartered framed it, “He seems to...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $2.6 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds still engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Funds expanded their long position in corn by 7 percent and are now just about 17,000 contract shy of their seasonal record long position. Funds were n...
Market Commentary: Tariffs More Than Weather
President Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow eclipsed concerns about South American weather and sent much of the agricultural futures complex into the red on Friday. Both countries will retaliate with Canada saying it will be...
Cattle Inventory Report: U.S. Cattle Herd Still in Contraction
USDA released its January Cattle Inventory report today. The U.S. cattle herd is still in a contraction phase. The total inventory of all cattle and calves as of 1 January was 86.7 million head, down 500,000 head from last year. Key numbers from today’s report are: The cattle on f...
Tariff Follies Begin; Ludicrous Lutnick; Hill-arious Committee Picks
Tariff Follies Begin There is playing from strength, like having the leverage of oversized trade deficits, and then there is overplaying one’s hand. Blanket 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico for ephemeral reasons fentanyl and immigration, two things Mr. Trump cannot even control in...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.595/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.42/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $3.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day with Wheat Hot, The Rest Not
Today’s trading session pretty much followed the overnight with wheat notching a third day of gains but traders taking a breather on corn, beans, and cattle. While wheat is girded by doubtful moisture conditions in the northern Black Sea region, the corn and soybean markets do not want to...
January Cattle Inventory Report Preview
Tomorrow, the USDA will release its January Cattle Inventory Report. Given USDA’s decision to drop the July mid-year report due to budget constraints, tomorrow’s inventory report has been highly anticipated. On Monday of this week, WPI noted the significance of the upcoming report.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 17-23, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 456,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 96 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 588,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 97 percent fro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.665/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $5.1 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Lead CBOT Higher; Cattle Correct Ahead of Inventory Report
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday due to the bullish influences of wheat and corn. The two grains saw support from Black Sea and South American weather impacts, respectively, with production outlooks for both regions falling. That put futures in a bullish mood with funds expanding net lon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.97/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $8.2 from y...
Transatlantic Uncertainty
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says that the Administration is still on track to impose a 25 percent tariff on Canada and Mexico this Saturday, unless they take undefined steps on immigration and drugs, and the President is still thinking about imposing a 10 percent tariff on Chin...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain but Lack Conviction; More All-Time Highs for Cattle
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday in what was mostly a technically driven corrective bounce. With South America’s weather still not perfect and various harvest/planting delays ongoing, there is a need to maintain some risk premium in prices. At the same time, however, overall supplies (es...
WTO Epiphany; Trump Treats Ag Horribly
WTO Epiphany Keith Rockwell is a trade policy professional. The lead spokesman for the WTO for many years, he was a cheerleader for the new world order and the opportunities it presented. He emphasized the importance of reaching agreement at each successively failed WTO ministerial. But Rockwel...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $0.8 from yes...
Trump Orders Freeze on Federal Grants and Loans, Including Ag Spending
Yesterday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) circulated a memo that directed federal agencies to “temporarily pause all activities related to obligations or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance.” The memo states that “in Fiscal Year 2024, of the nearly $10...
Livestock Industry Margins
Rising animal costs pressured beef and pork packer margins last week while offering a boost to livestock feeders. Most notably, feedlot margins improved significantly last week due to record-high fed cattle prices and weaker feed costs, though placement margins are still negative due to high fe...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Tariff Threats Ease; Cattle Surge to New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-tat trade war over the weekend. Sunday saw both the U.S. and Colombian presidents threaten each other’s country with 25 percent tariffs...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.8/short ton, down $4.1...
Un-Whole of Government; Apex Predator; Heavy Lift
Un-Whole of Government President Trump’s memorandum last week announcing his America First Trade Policy (AFTP) was issued to five federal departments, two of which are only tangentially involved in trade policy. It skipped over the federal department overseeing more than six percent of U...
January Cattle on Feed Report Bullish
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.8 million head, 99 percent of last year. The smaller inventory was driven by increased marketings and decreased placements. The placement data was bullish, coming in...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latter. There were new contract highs, again, in cattle. Overall weakness was blamed on Argentina’s announced lower tax rates on commodity...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 10-16, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 164,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 201,300 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 41 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.865/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5575/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, down $10...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on January 1, 2025 – down 1 percent from January 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.64 million head, 3 percent below 2023. Marketings of fed cattle during December t...
Rollins Confirmation Hearing
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, the Senate Agriculture Committee held a confirmation hearing on the nomination of Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of USDA. As Gary noted, she “rolled” through the hearings “poised, confident, charming” and had done the groundwork as...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still plenty of strength. Corn remains up about a nickel for the week, beans up more than 30-cents and while wheat dipped today, the large gains l...
Rollins Rolled; Cluelessness at the Top
Rollins Rolled Poised, confident, charming - USDA Secretary-Designate Brooke Rollins hit the trifecta today at her confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. She mostly just needed to show that she supported U.S. agriculture. After all, Donald Trump won over 98 percent of the...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish Feeder Pig Market
Bullish feeder pig prices could signal an expected return to improved profitability for hog production later this year. The 17 January National Direct Feeder Pig Report showed the weighted average (cash and formula) price of 10-12 pound early weaned pigs was $82.37 per head on...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8975/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.655/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $0.5 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat on Profit Taking, Tariff Talk; Cattle Hit $200 for First Time
Except for soymeal and the livestock markets, the CBOT was lower on Wednesday with traders booking profits and taking a more cautious approach after the recent runup in prices. Too, rhetoric out of the White House is keeping traders guessing on the possible application of and retaliation to var...
Transatlantic Tariffication; Biofuel Battles
Transatlantic Tariffication President Trump’s bromance with big tech billionaires has refocused his attention on Europe. The large penalties and regulatory hurdles being imposed by Brussels on America’s ANTMAMA (Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon) are being fram...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were decidedly mixed last week with diverging trends developing across the industry. Beef packer margins gained for the second straight week thanks to stronger beef prices that offset higher fed cattle prices, while feedlot margins dipped for both placements and close...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Surge as Dollar Slides
The first full day of the Trump Presidency saw CBOT grain futures surge as the U.S. dollar pulled back sharply. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all saw strong buying influences after the long U.S. holiday weekend with traders seeing bullish news from several points. The first point was President Trum...
Day One Trump Executive Orders
Shortly after his swearing-in as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump signed a slew of Executive Orders (EO) putting the wheels in motion for his policy agenda. EOs are signed, written, and published directives from the President regarding the operations of the federal governme...
Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil?; Billionaire Farm Boy; Ignoring the Labels
Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil? The President, aka “Tariff Man” pronounced at his inauguration that, “we will tariff and tax foreign countries.” However, the tariffs did not come on day one like some other policy changes. The warning is that, “tariffs delayed are not ta...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the biggest feature of the report was funds’ exchange of a small net short in soybeans for a modest long of 58,000 contracts, after they bought...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $2.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Market Gets a Bounce Ahead of Long Weekend
Commodity markets retraced some of the losses from Thursday, ending higher on Friday but not necessarily for the week. Corn is on a roll, nearing heights not seen in more than a year, but even cattle lost some of their bullish glow this week. 01172025MC_weeklychange.png 22.13 KBA key vect...
Martin Luther King Holiday
Please note that Monday, 20 January is a U.S. federal holiday in honor of the remarkable achievements of Martin Luther King, Jr. As a result, both the markets and World Perspectives, Inc. are closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives report will be published on Tuesday, 21 January. ...
Transitioning to Trump at USDA and in Congress
Monday is the Presidential Inaugural. This week has seen several Senate confirmation hearings on cabinet appointees. Both the Republicans and Democrats, Trump transition team, and Congress are prepping for the new Administration which will show up to work on Tuesday morning. &...
Political Sillies
No Introspection: Joe Biden’s farewell address appears to have been written by a 25-year-old at the socialist leaning People’s Policy Project. He claims historic success but warns the country will become an oligarchic dystopia. He warned about a “dangerous concentration of power” amidst “very f...
Cow-Calf Revenues Set Record in 2024, Profitability to Continue in 2025
The rally in feeder cattle and calf prices from September 2024 through mid-January 2025 provided cow-calf producers with near-record profitability for the 2024 calf crop. Higher prices for calves and feeder cattle, combined with record- or near-record high values for cull cows, pushed cow-calf...
Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake
Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than nothing, and something is all it takes to put brakes on a borderline market. The day’s trading closely tracked the overnight, with red showi...
Livestock Roundup: Food Inflation Driven by Proteins
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December yesterday. For the month, the CPI was up 0.4 percent, while year-over-year it was up 2.9 percent. The core CPI – excluding energy and food – was up 3.2 percent, well above the Fed’s 2 percent target...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 3-9, 2025Wheat: Net sales of 513,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 196,500 MT were down 53 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.19/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.4/short ton, down $7.6 f...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Trends and Acreage Outlook
U.S. Soybean Crush Dynamics On Wednesday, National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) said its members crushed an all-time record volume of soybeans of 206.6 Mbu, up 7 percent from November and up 5.7 percent from December 2023. Soyoil stocks came in at 1.24 billion pounds, which was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Squeezing Russian Wheat; Save the Rats; Rollins Delayed
Squeezing Russia with WheatEurope is afraid that Donald Trump is ready to capitulate to Vladimir Putin next week when he becomes president. But Trump has appointed a fair number of geopolitical hawks to his team. He may see the war as senseless, but he doesn’t want to be perceived as a loser. R...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather
The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as fully priced into futures, which left markets to return to trading the South American weather outlooks and export trends. Both of these facto...
Produce Price Inflation Mixed Signals
Producer price inflation (PPI) ended 2024 up 0.2 percent in December. That is a modest gain and was below pre-report expectations. Nonetheless, the PPI was 3.3 higher than a year ago, and substantially higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. That stickiness trend will keep inflation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $2 from...
Impacts on U.S. Ethanol Trade
Brazil is the second largest producer and use of ethanol after the U.S. The U.S. has an import tariff on ethanol of 2.5 percent ad valorem and has asked Brazil to reciprocate. Brazil maintains an import tariff of 11.75 percent on ethanol. Nonetheless, U.S. exports of ethanol have been on a mete...
Tariff Adjustment/Musk; Cynical Biden Trade Goals; Biofuel Proposal Disappoints
Tariff Adjustment /MuskRecognizing the inflation threat of sudden and large import tariffs, Donald Trump’s economic team: Scott Bessent (Treasury), Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council), and Stephen Miran (Council of Economic Advisers) are reportedly working on a plan of more gradual 2-5 pe...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were broadly higher last week with the one exception being placement margins for feedlots and closeout margins for farrow-to-finish hog operations. Higher feeder animal costs drove expected margins for last week’s feeder cattle placements lower, with profits for the i...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ activity matched up with expectations and general market direction. Note that the data, which captures funds’ positions through Tuesday, 7 Jan...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trying to Find New Ranges
The CBOT saw more bullish influences on Monday from Friday’s WASDE report in which USDA slashed the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields. After considering the numbers and implications over the weekend, traders decided there was enough demand for both products and, if USDA’s latest numbers are cor...
Coming Nominations Hearings
President-elect Trump’s inauguration is in one week. In the meantime, the Senate will soon start confirmation hearings on several of his cabinet nominees. Here’s a look at a few of those upcoming hearings.The Energy and Public Works Committee will consider the nomination of former Rep. Lee Zeld...
Greedflation’s Weaknesses; UPF Attack
Greedflation’s WeaknessesThe U.S. government is suing apartment owners for using RealPage software algorithms for setting rents. The grocery industry may be the next target of this assault. Critics charge RealPage of price fixing since its software optimizes what rental companies can charge. Be...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.8/short ton, up $9.5 from yester...
Market Commentary: Big Bullish Whopper
This last trading day of the first full trading week of 2025 came in like a whimper and went out with a bang. The trading day started with a notably sub-par Export Sales report from USDA. New commitments for wheat, corn, and soybeans all hit a marketing year low for export sales last week...
45Z Tax Credit Preliminary Guidance Released; No GREET Model Yet
As WPI reported on 6 December, the Treasury Department had promised that the compliance regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuels Production credit would be released by the end of the Biden Administration, implying no later than 19 January, the day before President-elect Trump’s inauguration. T...
Updated: The Historic Context for January WASDE Yield Surprises
Errata: The original version of this article incorrectly state the January 2018 soybean yield estimate at 50.6 BPA, instead of the true February (which made up for the delayed January report) estimate of 51.6 BPA. All statistics related to this yield estimate and charts/tables have been correct...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.705/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, up $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 27, 2024 – January 2, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 111,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 21 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 414,300 MT were up 9 percent f...