Recent Wheat Analysis
Market Commentary: Black Sea Instability and Trade War Influences
There were some jitters this week as Russia and Ukraine stepped up assaults ahead of what may become talks to end the conflict. Alongside concerns about a kinetic war is the uncertainty around the incoming Trump Administration’s aggressions in trade policy.It should be noted that geopolitical u...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6475/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, up $1.5 fro...
WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheet Forecasts
The latest updates and model runs from WPI’s grain balance sheet and pricing forecasts show that corn and wheat are likely to see stronger-than-expected demand that should create upside potential for cash and futures markets. Conversely, soybeans are expected to see weaker demand (particularly...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 8-14, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 549,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 45 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 133,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 56 percent from the previou...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Fall on Export Data
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex finding their way into the red for various reasons. Wheat initially rallied on rising tensions and attacks between Rusia and Ukraine, with Ukraine accusing Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missil...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.695/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7775/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287.7/short ton, down $1.7...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.905/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.4/short ton, up $0.8 from yest...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 November 2024Russian Union of Grain producers and exporters announced that winter wheat area for 2025/26 may drop to 15.4 Mha which will be the smallest planted winter crops area since 2018/19. Particularly, wheat area may drop by 0.9 Mha to 16.3 Mha, and after wi...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.4975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.985/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, down $1.7 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt’s strategic wheat reserves are at 4.6 months. This is a little lower than usual due to delays in wheat shipments from Russia.Iraq advises that is has sent 50 truckloads of aid to Syria, mainly wheat. The aid will be used to support...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 18 November)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina is progressing at a steady pace. Last week, the harvested area share increased by 5 percentage points, bringing the total to 17 percent of the sown area. The harvest begins in the north and gradually moves southward. In the northwest, the harvest is nea...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Ukraine War Developments, Fund Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with markets reacting to Friday’s CFTC data as well as news that will impact the Ukraine-Russia war. First, the CFTC data showed managed money traders engaged in a surprise, massive buying spree in corn last week, a move that sparked support in futur...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $290.3/short ton, up $0.7 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the European Parliament voted on the EUDR regulation and officially delayed the full implementation of the ruling until December 2025.After a soggy start to autumn for most of continental Europe, particularly the western regions, the recent weather and two-week for...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...
Market Commentary: Today was Green but Headwinds for the Week
Corn, soymeal, live cattle and lean hogs all traded lower during the morning start but by the end of the day, only lean hogs ended lower. There were modest volumes being traded on Friday for most contracts, except feeder cattle where it was nearly double the five-day average.December soymeal hi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 1-7, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 380,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 301,300 MT were up 27 percent from the previous week and 5 percent...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.985/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.6 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: Biofuel and Trade Policy Worries Pressure CBOT along with Dollar Strength
The CBOT saw another day of pronounced weakness with expectations for larger global soybean and wheat production and stocks in 2025 weighing on values. Product demand in the soy complex has also been a huge negative factor recently with uncertainty over U.S. biofuels policy causing a sharp redu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slips as Demand Worries Overtake Supply-Side Surprises
The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, which rallied markets on Friday. The report also, however, cast doubts on the demand-side outlook for both crops and wheat, and that is what...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Market Commentary: Somewhat Tumultuous WASDE
The November WASDE report usually involves some tweaking of the numbers by USDA, and that is all it mostly was today, but with some quirky impacts. First, there were a few surprises but not dramatic ones and yet the report spurred larger to outsized volume in trading across the grain and oilsee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Rally on Export Numbers; Cattle Gain on Macro Strength
The CBOT was mixed on Thursday following the news of Donald Trump’s election to President of the United States with markets, particularly corn and cattle futures, seeing continued support from “risk on” trade. It’s not necessarily that traders and investors are particularly excited about Trump’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 25-31, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 374,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 9 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 236,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 3 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Mild Election Impacts
Outside markets closed higher and the dollar was up, but not because of bullishness over Mr. Trump’s victory. The business sector likes his pledge for lower taxes and less regulation but is less enthralled with his attraction to tariffs. In fact, the tariffs are expected to be inflationary, cau...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: Election Day Brings CBOT Gains
It’s election day in the U.S. and the nation will decide on new leadership for the White House and Congress, though results may not be available for days or possibly even weeks. National polls indicate a tight race between candidates Trump and Harris, but betting markets tell a different story...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.1 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $4.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.145/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.68/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $2.1 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 18-24, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 411,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 244,400 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 12 percent from the previ...
Market Commentary: End-of-Month Trade, Profit Taking Create Mixed Markets
The CBOT was mixed in moderate-volume trade on Wednesday with markets across the board seeing impacts from end-of-month position adjusting and profit taking. Wheat futures were higher on poor U.S. conditions ratings and drought conditions in the Southern Plains, despite forecasts of rains this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...
Market Commentary: Poor Conditions Rally Wheat; Big Crop(s) Pressure Soybeans; Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with the wheat market in the lead on worrying crop conditions and persistent drought in the HRW growing region. USDA’s initial crop ratings for the winter wheat crop were the second lowest for the week since the mid-1980s, which means the rains in the two-w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.6525/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, down $3 from y...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, and AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey’s wheat production is seen dropping by 5.5 percent to 20.8 MMT according to Turksat estimates. It also sees barley production down by 11 percent to 8.2 MMT and corn down by 8 percent to 8.3 MMT. Soybean prod...
Market Commentary: Oil Drags CBOT Lower; Hogs Hit New Highs; Cattle Rise After Report
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with the sharp decline in crude oil futures dragging soyoil, the broader soy complex, and corn and wheat lower. There was little fresh fundamental news to guide commodity futures for the day, which gave the oil market’s plunge an outsized influence on ag fu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.74/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, down $1 fr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
Market Commentary: Mix Week Reflecting Fundamentals
Yesterday’s bullish Export Sales report was followed by more sales of corn and soybeans today. However, there had already been sufficient gains in the futures market this week and current sales are simply on track with USDA’s forecast. The trade does not want to get too far out in front of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8775/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $4.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 11-17, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 276,500 MT were down 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.815/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.4/short ton, down $4.6 from y...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rise on Export Data; Soybeans Fall on South American Weather
Exports remain the name of the commodity game this week with all eyes on the UDSA daily “flash” export sales announcements as well as this week’s weekly Export Sales report. On Thursday, both of those factors did not disappoint and gave the already bullish corn market another boost. USDA report...
Market Commentary: More Exports, More Gains
A sixth straight day of daily “flash” export sales announcements from USDA sent CBOT corn and soybean futures higher with funds covering shorts and commercials positioning bullishly too. The export demand for corn caught the market by surprise and has created the current rally, while the season...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday marked the fifth straight business day with a “flash” export sales announcement for corn, with Mexico responsible for essentially all of the de...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.76/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $317.7/short ton, down $0.6 from yes...
Bangladesh Food Import Projection
Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consumption. Imports include 5 MMT of grain (3.57 MMT is wheat), plus palm oil, milk powder, and other products. Roughly 3.5 percent of its food i...
The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according to the African Development Bank – 50 MMT being wheat – 27 MMT imported by North Africa, 12 MMT by East Africa and 9 MMT by West Africa. Wheat...
Market Commentary: Exports Rally Corn, Soybeans but Pressure Wheat; Hogs Hit New Contract Highs
The CBOT saw mixed trade again to start the week with a slate of fresh daily “flash” export sales announcements supporting corn and soybeans, as did a generally positive Export Inspections report. That helped soybeans recover from Friday’s drubbing and allowed the corn market to follow through...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.81/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, up $2.7 from yest...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.7/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.5 fr...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period October 4-10, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 504,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 16 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 393,100 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 30 pe...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday on Exports, Weather
Bears started out the week in full control of the CBOT, but their grip loosened on Thursday and bulls managed to post at turnaround in several markets. Chief among the turnaround was corn futures where an early dip below $4.00 in the December contract triggered short covering and some commercia...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.895/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.1/short ton, up $4.4 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, up $1.9 from yesterd...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due to France’s support for Morocco’s continued sovereignty over the Western Sahara region. All tender participants have been advis...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.91/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $3.5 f...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.055/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations
Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. The weather was mostly relevant for wheat as parts of Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the U.S. Plains battle persistent and increasingly dry...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1625/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323/short ton, down $1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324/short ton, down $6.5 from...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Next Week’s Weather Makes or Breaks
It was another day lower for the grain and oilseeds sectors, and another day of weak volume for corn and the soy sector. The causes have not changed: A strengthening dollar Very good harvest weather in the U.S. Potentially better weather in South America late next week If good rains materiali...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3775/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $330.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.46/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $7.9...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 20-26, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 443,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipment of 531,700 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 16 perc...
Market Commentary: Wheat Jumps Higher on Massive Egypt Imports; Soymeal Falls on EUDR News
Wheat remains the darling of the CBOT with more bullish news pouring into the complex. Today’s rally was sparked by reports that Egypt has booked over 3 MMT of wheat from the Black Sea (presumably Russia) to be exported over the next six months. That move comes as Russian wheat stocks are...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.1525/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $340.4/short ton, down $7.1 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Fuel 2-Day Corn Rally; Wheat Rises with Russian Prices
CBOT grains and oilseeds seem to be playing “follow the leader” and have recently switched roles. Previously, soybeans were rallying and pulling grain futures grudgingly higher, but that has completely flipped following Monday’s Grain Stocks report. Now, corn and wheat are ris...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.29/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, up $5.9 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports in 2024/25 could drop to almost nothing as a result of the very good harvest in 2024 – up by 3.2 MMT. Wheat production was well above the average at a record level of 31,400 MM...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Bullish Corn but Neutral Soy, Wheat; Port Strike Looms
Monday’s CBOT trade was essentially dedicated to the Grain Stocks report with pre-report trading seeing muted action and steady volumes while post-report trade saw a meaningful rally in corn and a pullback in soybeans. The report issued a surprisingly small corn stocks figure, which spurr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.84/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $341.6/short ton, down $2.5 fro...
Russia’s Grain Shortfall
Today’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report provided the market with a bullish input but there may be another shoe to drop. Russia’s stocks to use ratio for corn and wheat have been dropping for four straight years. Over that timeframe, it is down 64 percent for corn and 48 percent f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Four regions in Russia’s Siberia have declared states of emergency due to heavy rains and flooding. Milling Wheat Wheat markets were higher last week with U.S. futures rising about $5/MT while the Paris market added €1.25/MT for the week. Markets remain conc...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.6575/bushel, up $0.2475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $344.1/short ton, up $17.3 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1325/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8425/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.41/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $326.8/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Selloff Sinks Soyoil, Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Lower Ahead of Stocks Report
A surprise selloff in crude oil put heavy selling pressure on the CBOT soy complex on Thursday, with soyoil and soybeans scoring bearish reversals for the day. The weakness in the soy complex sent corn and wheat into the red as well, with traders unwilling to take more long risks heading into t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.5325/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $328.2/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades
The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to be purchasing up to 1.2 MMT (44 Mbu or 20 cargoes) of U.S. soybeans for October-November delivery, which put a bid under the market. Too, th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.78/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.4225/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $325.9/short ton, down $2.8...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh reports that it will be importing 400,000 MT of wheat immediately with the normal buying approval being shortened from 42 days to 15 days. The change is being made in order to maintain food security. Th...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.135/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.825/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3925/bushel, up $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $328.7/short ton, up $9.5 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News WPI sources in Brussels say it’s increasingly likely that the EU Deforestation Regulations will be delayed until the region can develop better implementing systems. Recall that EUDR – which would force massive reporting and traceability requirements on seven comm...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
Market Commentary: Wheat Retraces; Soyoil Surges
Wheat was the big gainer last week but this week it gave up most of those gains. And soyoil was last week’s biggest loser but it rose to the top this week. Lean hogs also staged a major reversal after losing 1.32 percent last week and then rising 4.1 percent this week. Where there...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0175/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, down $2.4 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Amid Weak Russian Prices; Soyoil Rises on Exports; Macro Markets Boost Cattle
Markets and traders were broadly enthusiastic following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-bps cut to its target interest rate on Wednesday, but you wouldn’t know that from looking at the grain or oilseed markets. Wheat futures were sharply lower on Thursday amid pressure from French whe...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 6-12, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 246,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 48 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 642,100 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 18 percent from the previ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0575/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1325/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally
Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.4/short ton, down $0.1 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Three Wheat Peculiarity
The December SRW and HRW contracts closed lower today, while December HRS added value. These three wheat contracts often move in unison, but not always. And they have many other differences that define them. HRS is typically priced higher due to its greater protein content and thus demand, espe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.125/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.06/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.5/short ton, down $2.3 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reported to have arranged a private purchase of 430,000 MT of Russian wheat at a price of $231 CIF. GASC has not confirmed this purchase. Egypt’s wheat imports, on a dollar basis,...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.785/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.045/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, up $0...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Thursday, a Ukrainian merchant vessel carrying grain and bound for Egypt was struck by a Russian missile in the Black Sea waters near Romania. The event is escalating the geopolitical tensions between the two countries and threatens Ukraine’s ability to protect ci...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.0625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $322.9/short ton, down $0...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 30-September 5, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 474,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 542,200 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week and 1 pe...
Market Commentary: USDA Confirms Record Corn, Soy Yields but Ending Stocks Fall
For a WASDE report that confirmed record-large corn and soybean yields, futures’ reaction to the data was relatively muted. Those hoping for a festival of bearish numbers were disappointing as USDA moderated the impacts of larger yields with reductions in 2023/24 carryout and modest &ndas...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.785/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323.2/short ton, up $3.2 fr...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the WASDE Storm; Drought Concerns Support Wheat, Soybeans
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday as traders continued adjusting positions and preparing for the upcoming September WASDE report. Wheat was the upside leader – though trading volume was suspiciously low – as concerns intensify about drought in the U.S. Plains, the Black Sea, a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7925/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $2.5 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 September 2024 The Russian grain market is finally showing bullish sentiments. Adverse weather in Russia this season concerns many analysts, and they are one after another decreasing their forecasts for overall grain production. Exact numbers are hard to figure...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises on Plains Dryness; Corn, Soybeans Sink in Pre-WASDE Trade
Trading at the CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with expectations for the WASDE differing significantly. For corn and soybeans, traders and analysts are all in on the bearish side of things while there is some growing positivity for the wheat markets. That was reflected in Tuesday’s trade with s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0425/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, down $0.2075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $317.5/short ton, down $7...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s trade deficit in June dropped by 5.1 percent to $2.87 billion – in dollar terms wheat imports were down by 21.5 percent while corn imports saw a reduction of 28.6 percent. Total for all imports...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.1/short ton, down $0.9...
Market Commentary: CBOT Prepares for September WASDE
The CBOT started the week with a mood that was decidedly oriented towards preparing for the September WASDE report. Volume and price action were relatively limited for the day and cattle futures were the surprise bullish leaders. In the grains, corn and soybeans pushed higher with the latter ma...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Recent rains have benefited parts of Argentina, but not all areas received significant precipitation. The highest accumulations occurred in the central-east and southern regions of Buenos Aires Province, with 30–50 mm recorded. However, the provinces of Córdoba, Santa...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU is set to receive beneficial rains across its central region this week with some of that precipitation extending out into parts of western and eastern Europe. That will offer some relief from the drought for central Europe, but the north-central and eastern regions wi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
Market Commentary: Mixed Signals
There were lots of mixed pressures on the market today, and this week overall. Outside markets were key among them. Trading volume was modest today, except for meal, oil, and livestock. On the week, livestock and soyoil took losses, while fund long positions held up for soymeal. While so...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 23-29, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 36 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 638,100 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 11 percent from the previo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.67/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.05/bushel, down $0.185 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.4/short ton, down $2.1...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7475/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.235/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $2.8 fr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Broad-based September Rally
The CBOT was higher once again with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soymeal all scoring new rally highs and bullish technical victories. In wheat in particular, fund managers are working hard to cover shorts as the technical outlook rapidly shifts bullish, which has driven much of this week’s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8075/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.215/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, up $8.5 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply on Bullish Technicals; China-Canada Trade War Looms
The CBOT was nearly uniformly higher following the U.S. Labor Day holiday with wheat, corn, and soybeans all scoring strong gains and meaningful bullish technical developments. There wasn’t a major fundamental catalyst for any of the markets, rather the day’s trade seemed to build u...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, up $7.8 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Arabian Mills has set the share issue price range under their upcoming IPO. The IPO is expected to raise about $271 million. The total offering will be for 15.4 million shares, which represent...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
Market Commentary: Pre-Holiday Run-up Continued
This trading week marked a series of reversals, and the latest trend continued for the most part today. It was generally pre-holiday lower volume for corn, wheat, and lean hogs but there was outsized volume trading in soybeans. Some notable stats from today and the trading week include:...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.01/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.515/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $313/short ton, up $2.1 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Export Sales, Weather; Wheat Follows Through on Reversal
Thursday and Friday are the last two days of the month with a three-day weekend present to kick off September, which helped create a “risk off” short covering tone in the markets. Consequently, the major CBOT ag markets were all higher for the day with additional fundamental develop...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.96/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.925/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, up $2.6 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 16-22, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 8 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 576,800 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Continues Reversal; Corn Soy Fall on U.S. Weather
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures following through on Tuesday’s bullish technical reversal after Stats Canada forecast a 34-MMT all-wheat wheat crop, which was below traders’ expectations. That, combined with weather issues for some major wheat growing/exporting co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $3.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 August 2024 Kazakhstan announced they will close the borders with Russia for wheat from now until 31 December. This will put even more pressure on the Russian wheat market and may push them to offer softer offers for GASC tenders where they are the key players...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Suggests CBOT Has Made its Near-Term Lows
The CBOT saw technical trade emerge and dominate the day, which sent corn, wheat, and soybeans higher after a weak overnight start. The day’s strength was sufficient to score bullish reversals on the corn and wheat charts, which indicates near-term lows are likely for these commodities. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9275/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.865/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Iranian wheat farmers are complaining that the government has not yet paid them for wheat delivered earlier in 2024 and that this is impacting planting for the next wheat crop. Iran’s government bought 11.6...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on the defensive amid the ongoing pricing malaise affecting nearly every major exporter. The Paris wheat market is particularly beleaguered righ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and Entre Ríos. The central and southeastern parts of Buenos Aires received similar amounts on 21 August. However, most of the core agri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.865/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8075/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $3.7 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Drought in Romania has affected over 2 Mha of wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seed with about 40 percent of the crops having been destroyed. This is the fourth year of the past five in which drought has caused significant damage to Romania’s crops. Tunisia p...
Spring Wheat Quality
Some are raising concerns that cooler temperatures and excess late season rain have caused quality problems for the typically high protein/strong gluten spring wheat crop. There is the threat that the lower quality wheat will end up being delivered against futures contracts and is causing falli...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
Market Commentary: Little to Move the Market But it Moved Anyways
The only real market mover on this last trading day of the week was the Fed’s nod to rate cuts. It is still bearish in grains, and the soy complex continued its small rebound despite the prospect of record production. No doubt because of continued strong demand. It was the second da...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.91/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.28/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.73/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.5/short ton, up $0.4 from ye...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Contract Lows; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Record Yields
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday with the Canadian rail workers strike and forecasts of record-breaking yields emboldening bears. Wheat futures scored new contract lows amid signs of weaker demand while corn and soybeans saw threats primarily from the ever-expanding production outlook for...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.935/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.615/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.1/short ton, down $4.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 9-15, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 492,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 45 percent from the previous week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,200 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9825/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.815/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: EU and U.S. Wheat Futures Decline Sharply; Soy Climbs on Sales to China
The CBOT saw mixed trade on Wednesday with wheat futures seeing the most interesting trade as they posted double-digit losses amid weak European markets and the threats posed by the Canadian railway strike. In contrast, soybeans scored another higher close with support coming from soyoil’...
Wheat Supplier Trends and Volatility
Global wheat ending stocks have been on a steady decline since 2017/18. Global corn ending stocks have also declined and nothing compares to the relatively small carryover for soybeans. Wheat carryover is skewed by the fact it is a food grain, and governments like China have stockpiled the grai...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania’s government announced a drought compensation program for farmers that will range from €200-250/ha with the total aid expense projected to reach €600 million. Algeria purchased durum wheat at prices of $328-332/MT FOB with the grain likely sourc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 August 2024 Crop Outlook As of 13 August, Russian farmers produced 69 MMT of grains from 20.6 Mha versus 73.5 MMT from 19.5 Mha last year. The average yield showed 3.36 MT/ha versus 3.76 a year ago. Wheat production reached 56.3 MMT from 15.8 Mha versus 57.4 M...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.98/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.76/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $2.2 from yest...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s recent massive wheat tender did not generate the 3.8 MMT of buying that GASC had planned. Reports say that the long delivery period – to April 2025 – coupled with the requirement for 270...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0025/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.76/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.5/short ton, up $8.4 from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Currently, 85 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is in normal to good condition, reflecting a nearly 10 percent decline from the previous week. Recent rains benefited many areas, but a significant portion of the wheat has not received rain for several weeks and is showing signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Market Commentary: Weather, Specs and Cheap Prices
The weather is bearish, except for spring wheat, and speculators are record short. Even having the cheapest grain in the world cannot spark enough new demand to slow the slide. Finding a bottom requires a supply shock, and the potential 20 MMT loss in Black Sea production due to drought is not...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.57/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $302.1/short ton, down $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Bearish Pall Over 2024/25 Sends CBOT Lower
Soymeal was the only major CBOT ag market to see significantly higher trade with the rest of the grains and oilseed sector either holding steady or scoring losses on Thursday. Favorable weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest and somewhat disappointing export sales data sent corn lower for the d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.97/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.685/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $307.7/short ton, up $4 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.685/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $4.5 from yes...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Bounce Higher; Paris Wheat Falls; Livestock Futures Extend Gains
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly higher on Wednesday with soybeans and soymeal seeing a surprise turnaround in the afternoon after scoring new contract lows overnight. There was little fundamental news to drive the reversal in soybeans’ fortunes and WPI attributes most of the day&rsqu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 August 2024 Crop Outlook Russian analysts woke up to the fact that grain production reported from farms is higher than originally predicted. The reaction was quick and most of the main analytical agencies in Russia reforecast their numbers upwards. Particularly,...
Market Commentary: Soy Posts New Lows; Corn Eases on Yields, Conditions; Cattle Extend Rally
The aftermath of the August WASDE saw the major ag CBOT contracts push lower, with the greatest weakness concentrated in the soy complex. There was really nothing supportive about the WASDE’s numbers for soybeans on Monday, and Tuesday’s drop to new contract lows in new crop futures...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9725/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2875/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.625/bushel, down $0.235 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.2/short ton, down $5...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s wheat production is estimated by the Iraq Wheat Board to be up by 21 percent to 6.3 MMT resulting in the second consecutive year of wheat self-sufficiency for the government. The Board adds that Iraq...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores Bullish Reversal; WASDE Confirms Soy’s Bearish Outlook
The WASDE held more than a few surprises on Monday with USDA offering hope for the beleaguered corn market to the extent that futures posted a bullish key reversal on the chart. If the soybean market was hoping for similar aid, it received none, and the WADSE was deeply bearish with a record-br...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.015/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.86/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.6/short ton, down $5.8 f...
European Market Analysis
Regional News International demand for wheat has picked up after the recent decline in prices with Egypt and Algeria issuing large tenders last week. Egypt’s GASC set a deadline of 12 August for its large tender for over 3 MMT in several tranches, and early results indicate Ukraine...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After several weeks of waiting, rain finally fell over much of Argentina’s wheat-planted area, bringing relief to many producers. However, some regions, including the northern core zone, western Buenos Aires, and the northern agricultural region, received little to no rain. In...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds more aggressively covering shorts in the grains and oilseed sector heading into the August WASDE. The most notable buying was in corn, where funds bought back 50,000 contracts or about 17 percent of their previous short position and have now shed over 100...
Market Commentary: Slow, Steady Descent Ahead of WASDE
Midwest commodity futures had a bearish but mild week relative to the volatility on Wall Street. Volume in general trended lower as the week progressed and while soymeal and lean hogs reversed last week’s gains, overall the downward slope has been shallowing out. This is especially true f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.95/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.025/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.4/short ton, down $5.7 fro...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipment for July 26-August 1, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 274,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 4 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 496,600 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week and 20 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.97/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Make New Lows; Corn, Wheat Fall on WASDE Supply Expectations
The CBOT was once again mostly red for the day with traders preparing for the August WASDE and generally expecting large crops and ending stocks for the 2024/25 year. The Midwest weather remains nearly ideal for producing big crops, and the only real question is how harvested acreage will impac...
Market Commentary: CBOT Drifts Lower as Traders Prep for WASDE; Soyoil Rises on UCO Investigation
The CBOT/CME was mostly lower at midweek as traders prepare for what is expected to be a bearish WASDE report next week. The favorable shift in the U.S. weather is adding to negative sentiments for corn, soybeans, and the spring wheat crop and most are expecting large ending stocks increases in...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1875/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, down $8...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 July–2 August 2024 Russian Vice Premier Patroushev announced that Russia is 40 percent done with harvesting small grains. The harvesting pace is ahead of last year’s pace; however, production is only 64 MMT which is lower than last year’s crop. The gr...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Weather, Crop Ratings; Wheat Firms on EU Worries
If Monday’s trade as all about the macro market meltdown, then Tuesday’s trade was about returning to normal. Global equity, bond, and currency markets mostly reversed course on Tuesday and pared back some of the massive losses they incurred over the past three trading sessions. Tha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0525/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2675/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $326.6/short ton, down $5...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply has increased its selling price of wheat, both local and imported, by about 20 percent. At the same time, the price of government wheat flour has increased by 35 percent. These pri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.4075/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $331.8/short ton, up $7.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Grains Trade Higher Amid Rout in Cattle and Equities
Despite bearish supply and demand outlooks coupled with the ongoing selloff in global equity markets, the CBOT’s major grain and oilseed markets turned higher to start the week. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal all scored meaningful gains and – in the case of corn and wheat &ndash...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the wheat planting has ended with a total seeded area of 6.3 Mha, aligning it with other private estimates of 6.3–6.4 Mha. In certain regions, some fields were not planted due to a lack of soil moisture, and with current prices, it is not worth t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s ag ministry says the country exported a record volume of 70 MMT of grain in 2023/24 but that total will fall to 60 MMT for 2024/25 due to smaller production. Last week, Tunisia purchased 125 KMT of soft wheat at prices ranging from $243.99-246/MT C&F...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report shows that funds were – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline – cautiously covering shorts in corn and soybeans as they continued to edge back from their recent record-large short position in both commodities. That was as little surprising given...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Caps Bearish Week; Cattle and Macro Meltdowns Continue
The CBOT saw some light short covering in corn, wheat, and soybeans develop after this week’s deeply bearish trade that brought new contract lows in all three commodities. There wasn’t a lot of bullish news, other than the continued hot weather forecast for the U.S. Midwest and conc...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0325/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.6/short ton, up $8.4 from...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Sink on Record Yield Chatter; Wheat Firms on Quality Worries
Corn, the soy complex, and cattle futures each saw extended weakness in Thursday’s CBOT trade with the crop markets coming under pressure from favorable weather conditions and forecasts for the U.S. There is increasing market chatter about record breaking yields for both corn and soybeans...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 19-25, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 286,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 454,200 MT were up 67 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.985/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.165/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.2/short ton, up $0.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Good Crop with Improving Conditions
This growing season’s major crops were already looking good, and now weather conditions are improving. If that doesn’t spell bearish, how about new contract lows this week for corn, soybeans, soyoil, plus SRW HRW wheats. New lows were hit today for corn and soybeans. USDA&rsqu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9975/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.7/short ton, down $2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 July 2024 This season Russia will fail to produce a record crop despite an earlier harvesting campaign. The Ministry of Agriculture believes in their previous forecast of 132 MMT of which wheat is 86 MMT. Interestingly, the Ministry of Agriculture is the most...
Market Commentary: CBOT Declines After Crop Conditions Didn’t
Better-than-expected crop ratings and shifting global weather forecasts sent the CBOT lower again on Tuesday. Monday’s Crop Conditions report showed broadly steady ratings for corn and soybeans across the major producers, with Kansas being the only notable decline, which was in sharp cont...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.05/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.24/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2125/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318/short ton, down $5.5 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s year end wheat stocks are expected to drop by 61 percent due to the wheat import ban. The ban is set to expand in October but wheat imports for the year are seen dropping by 3 MMT – a drop of...
Market Commentary: Bears Concentrate on Soybeans, Wheat Scores Reversal
The CBOT started the week with a collapse in soybeans and the broader soy complex in early trade that pulled corn and wheat lower as well. Soybeans, soyoil, and wheat all scored new contract lows in the early selloff with funds eagerly extending their short positions. By the day’s end, ho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, down $1.2 fro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan’s grain harvest is expected to coincide with heavy rains forecast for the next few weeks, which will likely cause a significant deterioration of the crop’s quality. Last week, the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring unit adjusted its 2024/...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat planting reached 98.5 percent of the expected 6.3 Mha last week, with some localized rains allowing producers to advance planting. However, the lack of water and frost damage to tissues caused the crop condition t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, short-covering was the major theme from the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which showed that managed money funds backed off from the record-breaking positions they previously amassed. Funds bought back about 10K contracts in soybeans and about 19K in corn, but the buyin...
Market Commentary: Down on the Day but Some Ups for the Week
Most of the major agricultural commodity contracts opened today’s trading session in the red and stayed that way to the close. Only feeder cattle and lean hogs managed small gains on the day. New contract lows were hit for December soyoil, September SRW and September HRW. Volume was overa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.31 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.7/short ton, down $4.5...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 12-18, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 309,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 271,500 MT were down 57 percent from the previous week and 30 percent fr...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Weather, Export Sales; Wheat Dips on Yields, Exports
The headline for the CBOT on Thursday was the unexpected surge in soymeal export sales that boosted that market and new crop soybeans to strong gains for the day. Soymeal exports have been a prominent support for the market this year and their recent uptick after December futures fell to near $...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.795/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $8.6 f...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Momentum Switch
The CBOT had relatively little fresh news upon which to trade Wednesday, which meant markets were largely at the mercy of fund positioning and existing trends. As equity markets fell sharply for the day and currencies wobbled, traders began looking for safe-haven assets, which helped diminish C...
Decline in U.S. Flour Trade
The International Grains Council recently increased its forecast for global flour trade by 11 percent to 16.1 MMT, though that would still be a decline of 4 percent from 2023/24. Turkey dominates the global trade in flour, with some saying it does so in an unfair manner. Kazakhstan is the other...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $320.6/short ton, up $1.5 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Market Commentary: Midwest Heat Concerns Corn, Soybeans; Cattle Finally React to COF Report
After two days of exciting trade, the CBOT settled down a little on Tuesday to reflect more deeply on market fundamentals. Monday’s Crop Progress data was largely reassuring for the major row crops, which helped create more stability in futures for the day. Wheat futures dipped but did no...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1725/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.755/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $319.1/short ton, down $0...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT. Iraq is now self-sufficient in wheat. The government says that this will help it to ensure long-term food security and economic stability...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Funds Cover Shorts, Markets Forge Bottom?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with the strength originating from the soybean market and spilling over into corn and soybeans. The soybean market derived its strength from new forecasts of hot, dry weather for the U.S. Midwest as the soybean crop approaches pollination and pod filling...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.15/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.6875/bushel, up $0.3275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $319.4/short ton, up $11.9 from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of global exports. Egypt’s GASC secured 20 KMT of sunflower seed oil at $1,013.99/MT for 1-15 September delivery. The original pla...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining massively short agricultural commodities. Perhaps the most notable item in this week’s report was the expansion of the record-large net...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $307.5/short ton, down $4 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week – How Low Can It Go
Trading opened today’s session mostly in the green, except for feeder cattle, but late in the session corn and the soybean complex turned lower. Notables for the week included new contract lows for: November soybeans December soymeal September SRW September HRW September HRS Weather wi...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 5-11, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 578,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 630,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.05/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.43/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $311.5/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Spring Wheat Rallies on Dry Weather; Soybeans See Large New Crop Export Sales
The CBOT saw a mixed day of trade with corn and soybeans seeing pressure from favorable U.S. weather outlooks and large supply expectations. Soybeans managed to find some support after USDA reported large export sales for 500 KMT of new crop soybeans overnight, the first significant sign of new...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.41/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $312.1/short ton, up $2 from y...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trends Continue; Ukraine’s Corn in Jeopardy
The CBOT saw generally quiet, steady trade at mid-week, but many players noted firmer undertones as futures stabilize or start to recover from deeply oversold conditions. Corn and all three wheat futures markets turned higher with cautious bull spreading with the latter market seeing support fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign. Even though this year’s crop is quite modest compared to the past several seasons, the pressure on prices is significant because of...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0875/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.4325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.1/short ton, up $1.8...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan has banned the import of wheat and the export of wheat flour in order to “regulate the wheat market”. The ban on wheat flour exports only covers flour made from imported wheat. Pakistan’...
Market Commentary: Bearishness Envelops CBOT Trade
The CBOT was sharply lower on Monday with markets seeing continued pressure from Friday’s generally bearish WASDE, favorable Midwest weather trends, and gains in the U.S. dollar following the weekend assassination attempt on former President Trump. The assassination attempt obviously does...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0425/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.325/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.4/bushel, down $0.2525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Neutral Corn; Soybeans Fall on Demand Worries
CBOT futures had a relatively muted reaction to the USDA’s July WASDE as large U.S. and global new crop ending stocks damped much of any potential volatility. The biggest theme was larger U.S. and world wheat supplies and stocks while the outlook for corn saw far more muted changes. Soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.5075/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.6525/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $314.1/short ton, down $1.4...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and their selling of nearly 30,000 soybean contracts to bring their short in that market close to the record short were the headlines from this...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period June 28-July 4, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 240,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 primarily for Thailand (60,800 MT), Japan (58,400 MT, including decreases of 1,300 MT), Indonesia (53,800 MT), Mexico (30,700 MT, including decreases of 1,500 MT), an...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double
Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.6775/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.5/short ton, down $0.9...
Market Commentary: Bulls Don’t Dare Challenge CBOT Bears
Bears once again dominated trade at the CBOT on Wednesday with a favorable U.S. weather forecast and somewhat surprisingly cheap wheat from Russia proving the impetus for the day’s selling. The soy complex saw perhaps the most dramatic and persistent declines for the day, with a combinati...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0725/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.67/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.4/short ton, down $2.3...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Stabilize while Soy Complex, Livestock Collapse Further
Trade at the CBOT was highly mixed across the different market categories Tuesday with grains (corn and wheat) seeing mild gains and signs of pre-WASDE stability emerge while oilseeds and livestock futures sold off sharply again. The vegoil rally that last week’s tensions between Indonesi...
Wheat Supplies and Price Both Falling
Global wheat ending stocks have been persistently falling now for five years. Ordinarily, price and carryover supplies move inversely but the price of wheat has been dropping for four straight years along with the availability of wheat. The same is true more recently. Forecasts in recent...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.085/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.72/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.8/bushel, down $0.195 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $2.7 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in MY 2023/24 that ended June 30. Egypt’s government purchases of local wheat have reached 3.55 MMT causing the target purchase to...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the buying in soyoil, where funds took back nearly half their short position in that contract amid the fears about the Indonesia-China trade war...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.995/bushel, down $0.3025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.4/short ton, down $11...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are the lack of surface soil moisture in the central and northern agricultural areas, and excess moisture in the south. Fifteen percent of the es...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe saw mixed weather trends last week with showers in western Europe, Scandinavia, and the Balkans. Ukraine received little to no rainfall, however, and Russia was also dry, except for light showers in the southern region. Dryness and heat building over eastern Europe re...
Market Commentary: Lower Volume, Soyoil Spikes, and Short Covering
Volume was expected to be light today given yesterday’s holiday and a weekend ahead. And it was low for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats. Plus, there is little new or different information when it comes to fundamentals. For the week, it was soyoil that stood out above t...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 21-27, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 805,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 primarily for Mexico (154,700 MT), the Philippines (154,400 MT, including decreases of 1,500 MT), Taiwan (104,200 MT), Brazil (90,000 MT), and South Korea (67,400 MT), were offset by...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower
Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade. Trading volume was expectedly light ahead of the one-day break in trading and few markets made major moves. Those that did, however, include...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher Again; Cattle Find Pre-Holiday Support
Once again, the excitement at the CBOT was dominated by soyoil, which posted its fifth straight higher close amid rising trade tensions between Indonesia and China. The rally in soyoil – and the broader vegoil complex – helped push soybeans higher and at one point November soybeans...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2125/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.81/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.13/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $328.3/short ton, down $4.3 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year’s harvest. The government’s local wheat buying target of 3.5 MMT has been exceeded. Egypt’s wheat reserves now stand at 6...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.205/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.9025/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.11/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $332.6/short ton, down $2.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?
CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout the day, which left wheat and soybeans to trade higher. Wheat found support from dryness in the Black Sea and smaller crop estimates for Russi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Projections made by NOAA on 20 June for the rest of the year show, for the third consecutive month, a decrease in the predicted cooling of the sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific compared to what was calculated in March this year. This indicates that the intensity...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European weather trends remain unfavorable for crops with drought in Hungary and Romania hurting winter crop development and yield potential while wet weather slowed summer crop seedings across France, Germany, and Italy. Now, heatwaves across Spain, eastern Europe and the B...
Summary of Futures
Sep 24 Corn closed at $4.075/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.735/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.04/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $335.5/short ton, down $3 fro...
Market Commentary: Reports were Bearish Corn; Neutral Soy and Wheat
The market had been positioning in advance for today’s USDA Acreage and Q2 Stocks reports to be bearish and traders were generally rewarded. Though corn absorbed the harshest reaction, more than half its weekly losses occurred earlier in the week. For the week: September Corn: -7.5%...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.0475/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, up $0.1...
Market Commentary: Stocks versus Weather
While the overnight market was all green except for soymeal, it was only joined by wheat in green by the end of today’s trading session. There were lots of lead changes for corn and soybeans, with narrow trading on both sides of nowhere. This led to some mini-whiplashes as the market calc...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Instability and Trade War Influences
There were some jitters this week as Russia and Ukraine stepped up assaults ahead of what may become talks to end the conflict. Alongside concerns about a kinetic war is the uncertainty around the incoming Trump Administration’s aggressions in trade policy.It should be noted that geopolitical u...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6475/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, up $1.5 fro...
WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheet Forecasts
The latest updates and model runs from WPI’s grain balance sheet and pricing forecasts show that corn and wheat are likely to see stronger-than-expected demand that should create upside potential for cash and futures markets. Conversely, soybeans are expected to see weaker demand (particularly...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 8-14, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 549,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 45 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 133,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 56 percent from the previou...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Fall on Export Data
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex finding their way into the red for various reasons. Wheat initially rallied on rising tensions and attacks between Rusia and Ukraine, with Ukraine accusing Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missil...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.695/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7775/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287.7/short ton, down $1.7...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.905/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.4/short ton, up $0.8 from yest...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 November 2024Russian Union of Grain producers and exporters announced that winter wheat area for 2025/26 may drop to 15.4 Mha which will be the smallest planted winter crops area since 2018/19. Particularly, wheat area may drop by 0.9 Mha to 16.3 Mha, and after wi...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.4975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.985/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, down $1.7 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt’s strategic wheat reserves are at 4.6 months. This is a little lower than usual due to delays in wheat shipments from Russia.Iraq advises that is has sent 50 truckloads of aid to Syria, mainly wheat. The aid will be used to support...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 18 November)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina is progressing at a steady pace. Last week, the harvested area share increased by 5 percentage points, bringing the total to 17 percent of the sown area. The harvest begins in the north and gradually moves southward. In the northwest, the harvest is nea...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Ukraine War Developments, Fund Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with markets reacting to Friday’s CFTC data as well as news that will impact the Ukraine-Russia war. First, the CFTC data showed managed money traders engaged in a surprise, massive buying spree in corn last week, a move that sparked support in futur...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $290.3/short ton, up $0.7 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the European Parliament voted on the EUDR regulation and officially delayed the full implementation of the ruling until December 2025.After a soggy start to autumn for most of continental Europe, particularly the western regions, the recent weather and two-week for...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...
Market Commentary: Today was Green but Headwinds for the Week
Corn, soymeal, live cattle and lean hogs all traded lower during the morning start but by the end of the day, only lean hogs ended lower. There were modest volumes being traded on Friday for most contracts, except feeder cattle where it was nearly double the five-day average.December soymeal hi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 1-7, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 380,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 301,300 MT were up 27 percent from the previous week and 5 percent...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.985/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.6 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: Biofuel and Trade Policy Worries Pressure CBOT along with Dollar Strength
The CBOT saw another day of pronounced weakness with expectations for larger global soybean and wheat production and stocks in 2025 weighing on values. Product demand in the soy complex has also been a huge negative factor recently with uncertainty over U.S. biofuels policy causing a sharp redu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slips as Demand Worries Overtake Supply-Side Surprises
The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, which rallied markets on Friday. The report also, however, cast doubts on the demand-side outlook for both crops and wheat, and that is what...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Market Commentary: Somewhat Tumultuous WASDE
The November WASDE report usually involves some tweaking of the numbers by USDA, and that is all it mostly was today, but with some quirky impacts. First, there were a few surprises but not dramatic ones and yet the report spurred larger to outsized volume in trading across the grain and oilsee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Rally on Export Numbers; Cattle Gain on Macro Strength
The CBOT was mixed on Thursday following the news of Donald Trump’s election to President of the United States with markets, particularly corn and cattle futures, seeing continued support from “risk on” trade. It’s not necessarily that traders and investors are particularly excited about Trump’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 25-31, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 374,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 9 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 236,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 3 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Mild Election Impacts
Outside markets closed higher and the dollar was up, but not because of bullishness over Mr. Trump’s victory. The business sector likes his pledge for lower taxes and less regulation but is less enthralled with his attraction to tariffs. In fact, the tariffs are expected to be inflationary, cau...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: Election Day Brings CBOT Gains
It’s election day in the U.S. and the nation will decide on new leadership for the White House and Congress, though results may not be available for days or possibly even weeks. National polls indicate a tight race between candidates Trump and Harris, but betting markets tell a different story...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.1 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $4.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.145/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.68/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $2.1 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 18-24, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 411,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 244,400 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 12 percent from the previ...
Market Commentary: End-of-Month Trade, Profit Taking Create Mixed Markets
The CBOT was mixed in moderate-volume trade on Wednesday with markets across the board seeing impacts from end-of-month position adjusting and profit taking. Wheat futures were higher on poor U.S. conditions ratings and drought conditions in the Southern Plains, despite forecasts of rains this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...
Market Commentary: Poor Conditions Rally Wheat; Big Crop(s) Pressure Soybeans; Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with the wheat market in the lead on worrying crop conditions and persistent drought in the HRW growing region. USDA’s initial crop ratings for the winter wheat crop were the second lowest for the week since the mid-1980s, which means the rains in the two-w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.6525/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, down $3 from y...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, and AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey’s wheat production is seen dropping by 5.5 percent to 20.8 MMT according to Turksat estimates. It also sees barley production down by 11 percent to 8.2 MMT and corn down by 8 percent to 8.3 MMT. Soybean prod...
Market Commentary: Oil Drags CBOT Lower; Hogs Hit New Highs; Cattle Rise After Report
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with the sharp decline in crude oil futures dragging soyoil, the broader soy complex, and corn and wheat lower. There was little fresh fundamental news to guide commodity futures for the day, which gave the oil market’s plunge an outsized influence on ag fu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.74/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, down $1 fr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
Market Commentary: Mix Week Reflecting Fundamentals
Yesterday’s bullish Export Sales report was followed by more sales of corn and soybeans today. However, there had already been sufficient gains in the futures market this week and current sales are simply on track with USDA’s forecast. The trade does not want to get too far out in front of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8775/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $4.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 11-17, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 276,500 MT were down 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.815/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.4/short ton, down $4.6 from y...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rise on Export Data; Soybeans Fall on South American Weather
Exports remain the name of the commodity game this week with all eyes on the UDSA daily “flash” export sales announcements as well as this week’s weekly Export Sales report. On Thursday, both of those factors did not disappoint and gave the already bullish corn market another boost. USDA report...
Market Commentary: More Exports, More Gains
A sixth straight day of daily “flash” export sales announcements from USDA sent CBOT corn and soybean futures higher with funds covering shorts and commercials positioning bullishly too. The export demand for corn caught the market by surprise and has created the current rally, while the season...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday marked the fifth straight business day with a “flash” export sales announcement for corn, with Mexico responsible for essentially all of the de...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.76/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $317.7/short ton, down $0.6 from yes...
Bangladesh Food Import Projection
Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consumption. Imports include 5 MMT of grain (3.57 MMT is wheat), plus palm oil, milk powder, and other products. Roughly 3.5 percent of its food i...
The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according to the African Development Bank – 50 MMT being wheat – 27 MMT imported by North Africa, 12 MMT by East Africa and 9 MMT by West Africa. Wheat...
Market Commentary: Exports Rally Corn, Soybeans but Pressure Wheat; Hogs Hit New Contract Highs
The CBOT saw mixed trade again to start the week with a slate of fresh daily “flash” export sales announcements supporting corn and soybeans, as did a generally positive Export Inspections report. That helped soybeans recover from Friday’s drubbing and allowed the corn market to follow through...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.81/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, up $2.7 from yest...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.7/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.5 fr...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period October 4-10, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 504,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 16 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 393,100 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 30 pe...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday on Exports, Weather
Bears started out the week in full control of the CBOT, but their grip loosened on Thursday and bulls managed to post at turnaround in several markets. Chief among the turnaround was corn futures where an early dip below $4.00 in the December contract triggered short covering and some commercia...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.895/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.1/short ton, up $4.4 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, up $1.9 from yesterd...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due to France’s support for Morocco’s continued sovereignty over the Western Sahara region. All tender participants have been advis...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.91/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $3.5 f...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.055/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations
Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. The weather was mostly relevant for wheat as parts of Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the U.S. Plains battle persistent and increasingly dry...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1625/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323/short ton, down $1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324/short ton, down $6.5 from...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Next Week’s Weather Makes or Breaks
It was another day lower for the grain and oilseeds sectors, and another day of weak volume for corn and the soy sector. The causes have not changed: A strengthening dollar Very good harvest weather in the U.S. Potentially better weather in South America late next week If good rains materiali...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3775/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $330.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.46/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $7.9...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 20-26, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 443,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipment of 531,700 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 16 perc...
Market Commentary: Wheat Jumps Higher on Massive Egypt Imports; Soymeal Falls on EUDR News
Wheat remains the darling of the CBOT with more bullish news pouring into the complex. Today’s rally was sparked by reports that Egypt has booked over 3 MMT of wheat from the Black Sea (presumably Russia) to be exported over the next six months. That move comes as Russian wheat stocks are...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.1525/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $340.4/short ton, down $7.1 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Fuel 2-Day Corn Rally; Wheat Rises with Russian Prices
CBOT grains and oilseeds seem to be playing “follow the leader” and have recently switched roles. Previously, soybeans were rallying and pulling grain futures grudgingly higher, but that has completely flipped following Monday’s Grain Stocks report. Now, corn and wheat are ris...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.29/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, up $5.9 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports in 2024/25 could drop to almost nothing as a result of the very good harvest in 2024 – up by 3.2 MMT. Wheat production was well above the average at a record level of 31,400 MM...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Bullish Corn but Neutral Soy, Wheat; Port Strike Looms
Monday’s CBOT trade was essentially dedicated to the Grain Stocks report with pre-report trading seeing muted action and steady volumes while post-report trade saw a meaningful rally in corn and a pullback in soybeans. The report issued a surprisingly small corn stocks figure, which spurr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.84/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $341.6/short ton, down $2.5 fro...
Russia’s Grain Shortfall
Today’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report provided the market with a bullish input but there may be another shoe to drop. Russia’s stocks to use ratio for corn and wheat have been dropping for four straight years. Over that timeframe, it is down 64 percent for corn and 48 percent f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Four regions in Russia’s Siberia have declared states of emergency due to heavy rains and flooding. Milling Wheat Wheat markets were higher last week with U.S. futures rising about $5/MT while the Paris market added €1.25/MT for the week. Markets remain conc...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.6575/bushel, up $0.2475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $344.1/short ton, up $17.3 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1325/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8425/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.41/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $326.8/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Selloff Sinks Soyoil, Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Lower Ahead of Stocks Report
A surprise selloff in crude oil put heavy selling pressure on the CBOT soy complex on Thursday, with soyoil and soybeans scoring bearish reversals for the day. The weakness in the soy complex sent corn and wheat into the red as well, with traders unwilling to take more long risks heading into t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.5325/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $328.2/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades
The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to be purchasing up to 1.2 MMT (44 Mbu or 20 cargoes) of U.S. soybeans for October-November delivery, which put a bid under the market. Too, th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.78/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.4225/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $325.9/short ton, down $2.8...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh reports that it will be importing 400,000 MT of wheat immediately with the normal buying approval being shortened from 42 days to 15 days. The change is being made in order to maintain food security. Th...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.135/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.825/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3925/bushel, up $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $328.7/short ton, up $9.5 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News WPI sources in Brussels say it’s increasingly likely that the EU Deforestation Regulations will be delayed until the region can develop better implementing systems. Recall that EUDR – which would force massive reporting and traceability requirements on seven comm...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
Market Commentary: Wheat Retraces; Soyoil Surges
Wheat was the big gainer last week but this week it gave up most of those gains. And soyoil was last week’s biggest loser but it rose to the top this week. Lean hogs also staged a major reversal after losing 1.32 percent last week and then rising 4.1 percent this week. Where there...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0175/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, down $2.4 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Amid Weak Russian Prices; Soyoil Rises on Exports; Macro Markets Boost Cattle
Markets and traders were broadly enthusiastic following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-bps cut to its target interest rate on Wednesday, but you wouldn’t know that from looking at the grain or oilseed markets. Wheat futures were sharply lower on Thursday amid pressure from French whe...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 6-12, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 246,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 48 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 642,100 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 18 percent from the previ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0575/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1325/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally
Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.4/short ton, down $0.1 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Three Wheat Peculiarity
The December SRW and HRW contracts closed lower today, while December HRS added value. These three wheat contracts often move in unison, but not always. And they have many other differences that define them. HRS is typically priced higher due to its greater protein content and thus demand, espe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.125/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.06/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.5/short ton, down $2.3 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reported to have arranged a private purchase of 430,000 MT of Russian wheat at a price of $231 CIF. GASC has not confirmed this purchase. Egypt’s wheat imports, on a dollar basis,...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.785/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.045/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, up $0...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Thursday, a Ukrainian merchant vessel carrying grain and bound for Egypt was struck by a Russian missile in the Black Sea waters near Romania. The event is escalating the geopolitical tensions between the two countries and threatens Ukraine’s ability to protect ci...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.0625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $322.9/short ton, down $0...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 30-September 5, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 474,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 542,200 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week and 1 pe...
Market Commentary: USDA Confirms Record Corn, Soy Yields but Ending Stocks Fall
For a WASDE report that confirmed record-large corn and soybean yields, futures’ reaction to the data was relatively muted. Those hoping for a festival of bearish numbers were disappointing as USDA moderated the impacts of larger yields with reductions in 2023/24 carryout and modest &ndas...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.785/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323.2/short ton, up $3.2 fr...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the WASDE Storm; Drought Concerns Support Wheat, Soybeans
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday as traders continued adjusting positions and preparing for the upcoming September WASDE report. Wheat was the upside leader – though trading volume was suspiciously low – as concerns intensify about drought in the U.S. Plains, the Black Sea, a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7925/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $2.5 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 September 2024 The Russian grain market is finally showing bullish sentiments. Adverse weather in Russia this season concerns many analysts, and they are one after another decreasing their forecasts for overall grain production. Exact numbers are hard to figure...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises on Plains Dryness; Corn, Soybeans Sink in Pre-WASDE Trade
Trading at the CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with expectations for the WASDE differing significantly. For corn and soybeans, traders and analysts are all in on the bearish side of things while there is some growing positivity for the wheat markets. That was reflected in Tuesday’s trade with s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0425/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, down $0.2075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $317.5/short ton, down $7...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s trade deficit in June dropped by 5.1 percent to $2.87 billion – in dollar terms wheat imports were down by 21.5 percent while corn imports saw a reduction of 28.6 percent. Total for all imports...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.1/short ton, down $0.9...
Market Commentary: CBOT Prepares for September WASDE
The CBOT started the week with a mood that was decidedly oriented towards preparing for the September WASDE report. Volume and price action were relatively limited for the day and cattle futures were the surprise bullish leaders. In the grains, corn and soybeans pushed higher with the latter ma...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Recent rains have benefited parts of Argentina, but not all areas received significant precipitation. The highest accumulations occurred in the central-east and southern regions of Buenos Aires Province, with 30–50 mm recorded. However, the provinces of Córdoba, Santa...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU is set to receive beneficial rains across its central region this week with some of that precipitation extending out into parts of western and eastern Europe. That will offer some relief from the drought for central Europe, but the north-central and eastern regions wi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
Market Commentary: Mixed Signals
There were lots of mixed pressures on the market today, and this week overall. Outside markets were key among them. Trading volume was modest today, except for meal, oil, and livestock. On the week, livestock and soyoil took losses, while fund long positions held up for soymeal. While so...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 23-29, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 36 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 638,100 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 11 percent from the previo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.67/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.05/bushel, down $0.185 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.4/short ton, down $2.1...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7475/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.235/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $2.8 fr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Broad-based September Rally
The CBOT was higher once again with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soymeal all scoring new rally highs and bullish technical victories. In wheat in particular, fund managers are working hard to cover shorts as the technical outlook rapidly shifts bullish, which has driven much of this week’s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8075/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.215/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, up $8.5 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply on Bullish Technicals; China-Canada Trade War Looms
The CBOT was nearly uniformly higher following the U.S. Labor Day holiday with wheat, corn, and soybeans all scoring strong gains and meaningful bullish technical developments. There wasn’t a major fundamental catalyst for any of the markets, rather the day’s trade seemed to build u...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, up $7.8 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Arabian Mills has set the share issue price range under their upcoming IPO. The IPO is expected to raise about $271 million. The total offering will be for 15.4 million shares, which represent...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
Market Commentary: Pre-Holiday Run-up Continued
This trading week marked a series of reversals, and the latest trend continued for the most part today. It was generally pre-holiday lower volume for corn, wheat, and lean hogs but there was outsized volume trading in soybeans. Some notable stats from today and the trading week include:...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.01/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.515/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $313/short ton, up $2.1 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Export Sales, Weather; Wheat Follows Through on Reversal
Thursday and Friday are the last two days of the month with a three-day weekend present to kick off September, which helped create a “risk off” short covering tone in the markets. Consequently, the major CBOT ag markets were all higher for the day with additional fundamental develop...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.96/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.925/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, up $2.6 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 16-22, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 8 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 576,800 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Continues Reversal; Corn Soy Fall on U.S. Weather
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures following through on Tuesday’s bullish technical reversal after Stats Canada forecast a 34-MMT all-wheat wheat crop, which was below traders’ expectations. That, combined with weather issues for some major wheat growing/exporting co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $3.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 August 2024 Kazakhstan announced they will close the borders with Russia for wheat from now until 31 December. This will put even more pressure on the Russian wheat market and may push them to offer softer offers for GASC tenders where they are the key players...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Suggests CBOT Has Made its Near-Term Lows
The CBOT saw technical trade emerge and dominate the day, which sent corn, wheat, and soybeans higher after a weak overnight start. The day’s strength was sufficient to score bullish reversals on the corn and wheat charts, which indicates near-term lows are likely for these commodities. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9275/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.865/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Iranian wheat farmers are complaining that the government has not yet paid them for wheat delivered earlier in 2024 and that this is impacting planting for the next wheat crop. Iran’s government bought 11.6...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on the defensive amid the ongoing pricing malaise affecting nearly every major exporter. The Paris wheat market is particularly beleaguered righ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and Entre Ríos. The central and southeastern parts of Buenos Aires received similar amounts on 21 August. However, most of the core agri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.865/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8075/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $3.7 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Drought in Romania has affected over 2 Mha of wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seed with about 40 percent of the crops having been destroyed. This is the fourth year of the past five in which drought has caused significant damage to Romania’s crops. Tunisia p...
Spring Wheat Quality
Some are raising concerns that cooler temperatures and excess late season rain have caused quality problems for the typically high protein/strong gluten spring wheat crop. There is the threat that the lower quality wheat will end up being delivered against futures contracts and is causing falli...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
Market Commentary: Little to Move the Market But it Moved Anyways
The only real market mover on this last trading day of the week was the Fed’s nod to rate cuts. It is still bearish in grains, and the soy complex continued its small rebound despite the prospect of record production. No doubt because of continued strong demand. It was the second da...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.91/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.28/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.73/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.5/short ton, up $0.4 from ye...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Contract Lows; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Record Yields
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday with the Canadian rail workers strike and forecasts of record-breaking yields emboldening bears. Wheat futures scored new contract lows amid signs of weaker demand while corn and soybeans saw threats primarily from the ever-expanding production outlook for...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.935/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.615/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.1/short ton, down $4.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 9-15, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 492,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 45 percent from the previous week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,200 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9825/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.815/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: EU and U.S. Wheat Futures Decline Sharply; Soy Climbs on Sales to China
The CBOT saw mixed trade on Wednesday with wheat futures seeing the most interesting trade as they posted double-digit losses amid weak European markets and the threats posed by the Canadian railway strike. In contrast, soybeans scored another higher close with support coming from soyoil’...
Wheat Supplier Trends and Volatility
Global wheat ending stocks have been on a steady decline since 2017/18. Global corn ending stocks have also declined and nothing compares to the relatively small carryover for soybeans. Wheat carryover is skewed by the fact it is a food grain, and governments like China have stockpiled the grai...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania’s government announced a drought compensation program for farmers that will range from €200-250/ha with the total aid expense projected to reach €600 million. Algeria purchased durum wheat at prices of $328-332/MT FOB with the grain likely sourc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 August 2024 Crop Outlook As of 13 August, Russian farmers produced 69 MMT of grains from 20.6 Mha versus 73.5 MMT from 19.5 Mha last year. The average yield showed 3.36 MT/ha versus 3.76 a year ago. Wheat production reached 56.3 MMT from 15.8 Mha versus 57.4 M...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.98/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.76/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $2.2 from yest...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s recent massive wheat tender did not generate the 3.8 MMT of buying that GASC had planned. Reports say that the long delivery period – to April 2025 – coupled with the requirement for 270...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0025/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.76/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.5/short ton, up $8.4 from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Currently, 85 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is in normal to good condition, reflecting a nearly 10 percent decline from the previous week. Recent rains benefited many areas, but a significant portion of the wheat has not received rain for several weeks and is showing signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Market Commentary: Weather, Specs and Cheap Prices
The weather is bearish, except for spring wheat, and speculators are record short. Even having the cheapest grain in the world cannot spark enough new demand to slow the slide. Finding a bottom requires a supply shock, and the potential 20 MMT loss in Black Sea production due to drought is not...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.57/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $302.1/short ton, down $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Bearish Pall Over 2024/25 Sends CBOT Lower
Soymeal was the only major CBOT ag market to see significantly higher trade with the rest of the grains and oilseed sector either holding steady or scoring losses on Thursday. Favorable weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest and somewhat disappointing export sales data sent corn lower for the d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.97/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.685/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $307.7/short ton, up $4 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.685/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $4.5 from yes...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Bounce Higher; Paris Wheat Falls; Livestock Futures Extend Gains
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly higher on Wednesday with soybeans and soymeal seeing a surprise turnaround in the afternoon after scoring new contract lows overnight. There was little fundamental news to drive the reversal in soybeans’ fortunes and WPI attributes most of the day&rsqu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 August 2024 Crop Outlook Russian analysts woke up to the fact that grain production reported from farms is higher than originally predicted. The reaction was quick and most of the main analytical agencies in Russia reforecast their numbers upwards. Particularly,...
Market Commentary: Soy Posts New Lows; Corn Eases on Yields, Conditions; Cattle Extend Rally
The aftermath of the August WASDE saw the major ag CBOT contracts push lower, with the greatest weakness concentrated in the soy complex. There was really nothing supportive about the WASDE’s numbers for soybeans on Monday, and Tuesday’s drop to new contract lows in new crop futures...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9725/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2875/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.625/bushel, down $0.235 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.2/short ton, down $5...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s wheat production is estimated by the Iraq Wheat Board to be up by 21 percent to 6.3 MMT resulting in the second consecutive year of wheat self-sufficiency for the government. The Board adds that Iraq...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores Bullish Reversal; WASDE Confirms Soy’s Bearish Outlook
The WASDE held more than a few surprises on Monday with USDA offering hope for the beleaguered corn market to the extent that futures posted a bullish key reversal on the chart. If the soybean market was hoping for similar aid, it received none, and the WADSE was deeply bearish with a record-br...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.015/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.86/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.6/short ton, down $5.8 f...
European Market Analysis
Regional News International demand for wheat has picked up after the recent decline in prices with Egypt and Algeria issuing large tenders last week. Egypt’s GASC set a deadline of 12 August for its large tender for over 3 MMT in several tranches, and early results indicate Ukraine...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After several weeks of waiting, rain finally fell over much of Argentina’s wheat-planted area, bringing relief to many producers. However, some regions, including the northern core zone, western Buenos Aires, and the northern agricultural region, received little to no rain. In...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds more aggressively covering shorts in the grains and oilseed sector heading into the August WASDE. The most notable buying was in corn, where funds bought back 50,000 contracts or about 17 percent of their previous short position and have now shed over 100...
Market Commentary: Slow, Steady Descent Ahead of WASDE
Midwest commodity futures had a bearish but mild week relative to the volatility on Wall Street. Volume in general trended lower as the week progressed and while soymeal and lean hogs reversed last week’s gains, overall the downward slope has been shallowing out. This is especially true f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.95/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.025/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.4/short ton, down $5.7 fro...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipment for July 26-August 1, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 274,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 4 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 496,600 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week and 20 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.97/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Make New Lows; Corn, Wheat Fall on WASDE Supply Expectations
The CBOT was once again mostly red for the day with traders preparing for the August WASDE and generally expecting large crops and ending stocks for the 2024/25 year. The Midwest weather remains nearly ideal for producing big crops, and the only real question is how harvested acreage will impac...
Market Commentary: CBOT Drifts Lower as Traders Prep for WASDE; Soyoil Rises on UCO Investigation
The CBOT/CME was mostly lower at midweek as traders prepare for what is expected to be a bearish WASDE report next week. The favorable shift in the U.S. weather is adding to negative sentiments for corn, soybeans, and the spring wheat crop and most are expecting large ending stocks increases in...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1875/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, down $8...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 July–2 August 2024 Russian Vice Premier Patroushev announced that Russia is 40 percent done with harvesting small grains. The harvesting pace is ahead of last year’s pace; however, production is only 64 MMT which is lower than last year’s crop. The gr...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Weather, Crop Ratings; Wheat Firms on EU Worries
If Monday’s trade as all about the macro market meltdown, then Tuesday’s trade was about returning to normal. Global equity, bond, and currency markets mostly reversed course on Tuesday and pared back some of the massive losses they incurred over the past three trading sessions. Tha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0525/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2675/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $326.6/short ton, down $5...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply has increased its selling price of wheat, both local and imported, by about 20 percent. At the same time, the price of government wheat flour has increased by 35 percent. These pri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.4075/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $331.8/short ton, up $7.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Grains Trade Higher Amid Rout in Cattle and Equities
Despite bearish supply and demand outlooks coupled with the ongoing selloff in global equity markets, the CBOT’s major grain and oilseed markets turned higher to start the week. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal all scored meaningful gains and – in the case of corn and wheat &ndash...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the wheat planting has ended with a total seeded area of 6.3 Mha, aligning it with other private estimates of 6.3–6.4 Mha. In certain regions, some fields were not planted due to a lack of soil moisture, and with current prices, it is not worth t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s ag ministry says the country exported a record volume of 70 MMT of grain in 2023/24 but that total will fall to 60 MMT for 2024/25 due to smaller production. Last week, Tunisia purchased 125 KMT of soft wheat at prices ranging from $243.99-246/MT C&F...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report shows that funds were – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline – cautiously covering shorts in corn and soybeans as they continued to edge back from their recent record-large short position in both commodities. That was as little surprising given...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Caps Bearish Week; Cattle and Macro Meltdowns Continue
The CBOT saw some light short covering in corn, wheat, and soybeans develop after this week’s deeply bearish trade that brought new contract lows in all three commodities. There wasn’t a lot of bullish news, other than the continued hot weather forecast for the U.S. Midwest and conc...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0325/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.6/short ton, up $8.4 from...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Sink on Record Yield Chatter; Wheat Firms on Quality Worries
Corn, the soy complex, and cattle futures each saw extended weakness in Thursday’s CBOT trade with the crop markets coming under pressure from favorable weather conditions and forecasts for the U.S. There is increasing market chatter about record breaking yields for both corn and soybeans...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 19-25, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 286,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 454,200 MT were up 67 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.985/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.165/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.2/short ton, up $0.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Good Crop with Improving Conditions
This growing season’s major crops were already looking good, and now weather conditions are improving. If that doesn’t spell bearish, how about new contract lows this week for corn, soybeans, soyoil, plus SRW HRW wheats. New lows were hit today for corn and soybeans. USDA&rsqu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9975/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.7/short ton, down $2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 July 2024 This season Russia will fail to produce a record crop despite an earlier harvesting campaign. The Ministry of Agriculture believes in their previous forecast of 132 MMT of which wheat is 86 MMT. Interestingly, the Ministry of Agriculture is the most...
Market Commentary: CBOT Declines After Crop Conditions Didn’t
Better-than-expected crop ratings and shifting global weather forecasts sent the CBOT lower again on Tuesday. Monday’s Crop Conditions report showed broadly steady ratings for corn and soybeans across the major producers, with Kansas being the only notable decline, which was in sharp cont...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.05/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.24/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2125/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318/short ton, down $5.5 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s year end wheat stocks are expected to drop by 61 percent due to the wheat import ban. The ban is set to expand in October but wheat imports for the year are seen dropping by 3 MMT – a drop of...
Market Commentary: Bears Concentrate on Soybeans, Wheat Scores Reversal
The CBOT started the week with a collapse in soybeans and the broader soy complex in early trade that pulled corn and wheat lower as well. Soybeans, soyoil, and wheat all scored new contract lows in the early selloff with funds eagerly extending their short positions. By the day’s end, ho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, down $1.2 fro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan’s grain harvest is expected to coincide with heavy rains forecast for the next few weeks, which will likely cause a significant deterioration of the crop’s quality. Last week, the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring unit adjusted its 2024/...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat planting reached 98.5 percent of the expected 6.3 Mha last week, with some localized rains allowing producers to advance planting. However, the lack of water and frost damage to tissues caused the crop condition t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, short-covering was the major theme from the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which showed that managed money funds backed off from the record-breaking positions they previously amassed. Funds bought back about 10K contracts in soybeans and about 19K in corn, but the buyin...
Market Commentary: Down on the Day but Some Ups for the Week
Most of the major agricultural commodity contracts opened today’s trading session in the red and stayed that way to the close. Only feeder cattle and lean hogs managed small gains on the day. New contract lows were hit for December soyoil, September SRW and September HRW. Volume was overa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.31 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.7/short ton, down $4.5...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 12-18, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 309,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 271,500 MT were down 57 percent from the previous week and 30 percent fr...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Weather, Export Sales; Wheat Dips on Yields, Exports
The headline for the CBOT on Thursday was the unexpected surge in soymeal export sales that boosted that market and new crop soybeans to strong gains for the day. Soymeal exports have been a prominent support for the market this year and their recent uptick after December futures fell to near $...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.795/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $8.6 f...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Momentum Switch
The CBOT had relatively little fresh news upon which to trade Wednesday, which meant markets were largely at the mercy of fund positioning and existing trends. As equity markets fell sharply for the day and currencies wobbled, traders began looking for safe-haven assets, which helped diminish C...
Decline in U.S. Flour Trade
The International Grains Council recently increased its forecast for global flour trade by 11 percent to 16.1 MMT, though that would still be a decline of 4 percent from 2023/24. Turkey dominates the global trade in flour, with some saying it does so in an unfair manner. Kazakhstan is the other...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $320.6/short ton, up $1.5 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Market Commentary: Midwest Heat Concerns Corn, Soybeans; Cattle Finally React to COF Report
After two days of exciting trade, the CBOT settled down a little on Tuesday to reflect more deeply on market fundamentals. Monday’s Crop Progress data was largely reassuring for the major row crops, which helped create more stability in futures for the day. Wheat futures dipped but did no...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1725/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.755/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $319.1/short ton, down $0...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT. Iraq is now self-sufficient in wheat. The government says that this will help it to ensure long-term food security and economic stability...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Funds Cover Shorts, Markets Forge Bottom?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with the strength originating from the soybean market and spilling over into corn and soybeans. The soybean market derived its strength from new forecasts of hot, dry weather for the U.S. Midwest as the soybean crop approaches pollination and pod filling...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.15/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.6875/bushel, up $0.3275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $319.4/short ton, up $11.9 from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of global exports. Egypt’s GASC secured 20 KMT of sunflower seed oil at $1,013.99/MT for 1-15 September delivery. The original pla...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining massively short agricultural commodities. Perhaps the most notable item in this week’s report was the expansion of the record-large net...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $307.5/short ton, down $4 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week – How Low Can It Go
Trading opened today’s session mostly in the green, except for feeder cattle, but late in the session corn and the soybean complex turned lower. Notables for the week included new contract lows for: November soybeans December soymeal September SRW September HRW September HRS Weather wi...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 5-11, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 578,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 630,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.05/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.43/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $311.5/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Spring Wheat Rallies on Dry Weather; Soybeans See Large New Crop Export Sales
The CBOT saw a mixed day of trade with corn and soybeans seeing pressure from favorable U.S. weather outlooks and large supply expectations. Soybeans managed to find some support after USDA reported large export sales for 500 KMT of new crop soybeans overnight, the first significant sign of new...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.41/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $312.1/short ton, up $2 from y...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trends Continue; Ukraine’s Corn in Jeopardy
The CBOT saw generally quiet, steady trade at mid-week, but many players noted firmer undertones as futures stabilize or start to recover from deeply oversold conditions. Corn and all three wheat futures markets turned higher with cautious bull spreading with the latter market seeing support fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign. Even though this year’s crop is quite modest compared to the past several seasons, the pressure on prices is significant because of...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0875/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.4325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.1/short ton, up $1.8...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan has banned the import of wheat and the export of wheat flour in order to “regulate the wheat market”. The ban on wheat flour exports only covers flour made from imported wheat. Pakistan’...
Market Commentary: Bearishness Envelops CBOT Trade
The CBOT was sharply lower on Monday with markets seeing continued pressure from Friday’s generally bearish WASDE, favorable Midwest weather trends, and gains in the U.S. dollar following the weekend assassination attempt on former President Trump. The assassination attempt obviously does...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0425/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.325/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.4/bushel, down $0.2525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Neutral Corn; Soybeans Fall on Demand Worries
CBOT futures had a relatively muted reaction to the USDA’s July WASDE as large U.S. and global new crop ending stocks damped much of any potential volatility. The biggest theme was larger U.S. and world wheat supplies and stocks while the outlook for corn saw far more muted changes. Soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.5075/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.6525/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $314.1/short ton, down $1.4...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and their selling of nearly 30,000 soybean contracts to bring their short in that market close to the record short were the headlines from this...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period June 28-July 4, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 240,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 primarily for Thailand (60,800 MT), Japan (58,400 MT, including decreases of 1,300 MT), Indonesia (53,800 MT), Mexico (30,700 MT, including decreases of 1,500 MT), an...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double
Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.6775/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.5/short ton, down $0.9...
Market Commentary: Bulls Don’t Dare Challenge CBOT Bears
Bears once again dominated trade at the CBOT on Wednesday with a favorable U.S. weather forecast and somewhat surprisingly cheap wheat from Russia proving the impetus for the day’s selling. The soy complex saw perhaps the most dramatic and persistent declines for the day, with a combinati...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0725/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.67/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.4/short ton, down $2.3...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Stabilize while Soy Complex, Livestock Collapse Further
Trade at the CBOT was highly mixed across the different market categories Tuesday with grains (corn and wheat) seeing mild gains and signs of pre-WASDE stability emerge while oilseeds and livestock futures sold off sharply again. The vegoil rally that last week’s tensions between Indonesi...
Wheat Supplies and Price Both Falling
Global wheat ending stocks have been persistently falling now for five years. Ordinarily, price and carryover supplies move inversely but the price of wheat has been dropping for four straight years along with the availability of wheat. The same is true more recently. Forecasts in recent...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.085/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.72/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.8/bushel, down $0.195 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $2.7 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in MY 2023/24 that ended June 30. Egypt’s government purchases of local wheat have reached 3.55 MMT causing the target purchase to...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the buying in soyoil, where funds took back nearly half their short position in that contract amid the fears about the Indonesia-China trade war...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.995/bushel, down $0.3025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.4/short ton, down $11...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are the lack of surface soil moisture in the central and northern agricultural areas, and excess moisture in the south. Fifteen percent of the es...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe saw mixed weather trends last week with showers in western Europe, Scandinavia, and the Balkans. Ukraine received little to no rainfall, however, and Russia was also dry, except for light showers in the southern region. Dryness and heat building over eastern Europe re...
Market Commentary: Lower Volume, Soyoil Spikes, and Short Covering
Volume was expected to be light today given yesterday’s holiday and a weekend ahead. And it was low for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats. Plus, there is little new or different information when it comes to fundamentals. For the week, it was soyoil that stood out above t...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 21-27, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 805,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 primarily for Mexico (154,700 MT), the Philippines (154,400 MT, including decreases of 1,500 MT), Taiwan (104,200 MT), Brazil (90,000 MT), and South Korea (67,400 MT), were offset by...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower
Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade. Trading volume was expectedly light ahead of the one-day break in trading and few markets made major moves. Those that did, however, include...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher Again; Cattle Find Pre-Holiday Support
Once again, the excitement at the CBOT was dominated by soyoil, which posted its fifth straight higher close amid rising trade tensions between Indonesia and China. The rally in soyoil – and the broader vegoil complex – helped push soybeans higher and at one point November soybeans...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2125/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.81/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.13/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $328.3/short ton, down $4.3 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year’s harvest. The government’s local wheat buying target of 3.5 MMT has been exceeded. Egypt’s wheat reserves now stand at 6...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.205/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.9025/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.11/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $332.6/short ton, down $2.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?
CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout the day, which left wheat and soybeans to trade higher. Wheat found support from dryness in the Black Sea and smaller crop estimates for Russi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Projections made by NOAA on 20 June for the rest of the year show, for the third consecutive month, a decrease in the predicted cooling of the sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific compared to what was calculated in March this year. This indicates that the intensity...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European weather trends remain unfavorable for crops with drought in Hungary and Romania hurting winter crop development and yield potential while wet weather slowed summer crop seedings across France, Germany, and Italy. Now, heatwaves across Spain, eastern Europe and the B...
Summary of Futures
Sep 24 Corn closed at $4.075/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.735/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.04/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $335.5/short ton, down $3 fro...
Market Commentary: Reports were Bearish Corn; Neutral Soy and Wheat
The market had been positioning in advance for today’s USDA Acreage and Q2 Stocks reports to be bearish and traders were generally rewarded. Though corn absorbed the harshest reaction, more than half its weekly losses occurred earlier in the week. For the week: September Corn: -7.5%...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.0475/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, up $0.1...
Market Commentary: Stocks versus Weather
While the overnight market was all green except for soymeal, it was only joined by wheat in green by the end of today’s trading session. There were lots of lead changes for corn and soybeans, with narrow trading on both sides of nowhere. This led to some mini-whiplashes as the market calc...