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Cancel Culture and Meat; OMG GMO; Pandemic Supercycle

Cancel Culture and Meat Colorado Governor Jared Polis unleashed a firestorm by calling on Coloradans to participate in the 20 March “Meatout Day&rdqu...

PM Post - Early Strength Faded to Profit-taking

THE OPEN May beans:  7 lower May meal:  2.30 lower May soyoil: 67 lower May corn:  3 1/4 lower May wheat:  6 1/2 lower The markets open...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 390,100 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 18 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.&nb...

Technical Views - Headed to the Bottom

SPREADS July crush trades to 57c/bu while oilshare trades to 29.25% in correction mode.  July wheat/corn trends lower, placing a trade at 88c from 96c...

AM Outlook - Trapped Sideways

GOOD MORNING,  The markets are breaking down to new lows as rains spread across Argentina and funds begin to tire of markets that fail on higher trend...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Price Reverses Course, Falls by More Than 4 Percent After beginning the month of March with a solid gain of more than two percent, the n...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.58/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.4/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.  M...

Lesson from Tai; Victims Everywhere

Lessons from Tai Everyone that knows Katherine Tai was excited for her nomination to become U.S. Trade Representative and were confident in her confirmatio...

China Hog Guessing Game

With China importing over 44 percent of the world’s traded pork and at least 13 percent of its traded corn, knowing the size of the hog herd is criti...

PM Post - Various Influences and Chop

THE OPEN May beans:  8 1/2 lower May meal:  3.90 lower May soyoil:  3 higher May corn: 2 higher May wheat:  3 3/4 lower The markets ope...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 March 2021 Wheat prices in the southern regions continued to grow. Surprisingly, despite the introduction of corn and barley ex...

AM Outlook - More Sideways Chop

GOOD MORNING, The markets are mostly lower though nearby corn and soyoil trade both sides of even.  Corn gains on beans, and soyoil on meal.  The...

Technical Views - China Boosts Corn

SPREADS July crush trades 63.41c/bu while oilshare trades at 39.80%.  Feature this AM is May/July corn spread, which inverts to 12 1/2c to 13 3/4, mee...

Market Commentary: China Sale Lifts Corn; Hog Futures Jump Higher

News of a 1+ MMT sale of corn to China ahead of this week’s U.S.-China meeting in Alaska sparked a minor rally in CBOT corn on Tuesday. Soybeans relu...

Risk of Precaution; Challenging Poor Governance

Risk of Precaution Several European countries stopped vaccinations with AstraZeneca’s product out of an abundance of caution that it was causing bloo...

Ides of March and Acres

We’re half-way through the month of March, known as the ides of March on the ancient Roman calendar – marking the 74th day of the year and the...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.5425/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.47/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...

NH3 and Yield

Farmers are complaining that the cost of anhydrous ammonia (NH3) has skyrocketed at the same time crops are about to go into the ground. It is difficult to...

PM Post - Mired in Trading Ranges

THE OPEN May beans:  3 1/2 lower May meal:  1.10 higher May soyoil:  60 lower May corn:  5 higher May wheat:  4 3/4 lower The open...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The latest FAO report on Yemen shows that the 2020 grain harvest is down by about 5 percent a...

Technical Views - China Props up Corn

SPREADS May crush trades to 83c/bu while oilshare trades at 40.10%.  July crush trades 73c while oilshare trades to 39.49%.  Nearby corn spreads...

AM Outlook - Wheat Leads Lower

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed featuring further gains in corn and a rebound in meal.  Nearby corn spreads are firmer on a strong domestic US basis an...

Competitive Neutrality Challenges; No Transatlantic Worries

Competitive Neutrality Challenges Competitive Neutrality has a myriad of potential applications, though not all of them good. There is the routine, such as...

Food Inflation

According to BLS data, food inflation in 2020 was 3.4 percent over 2019. The general inflation rate measured by the consumer price index was 1.2 percent. F...

More to Burn, Less Trade

As the border carbon tax idea picks up steam it leads to all kinds of possibilities for expanding use of border measures to extract policy changes. One tar...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.495/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  M...

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  The global wheat market starts this week slightly lower amid what sources say is sluggish demand. The market is focused on the U.S. pla...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Most of Argentina’s agricultural area continues to be impacted by drought. The early planted corn is almost finished but the late planted crop i...

PM Post - Highs and Lows are Set

    THE OPEN May beans:  8 1/2 lower May meal:  2.50 lower May soyoil:  4 lower May corn:  1 lower May wheat;  1 lower T...

Technical Views - Mixed Start to the Week

SPREADS May crush trades to 81.52c/bu while July trades at 72c/bu.  May oilshare trades up to 41.0%, while July trades to 40.39%.  July/Nov bean...

Pre-March 31 Report Ranges

GOOD MORNING, The markets were mixed overnight, with the exception of soyoil futures which once again traded to new contract highs.   Oilshare re...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.385/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...

No Offshoring Life Ring; Twisted Green

No Offshoring Life Ring Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda is being challenged by Democrats who say it did not go far enough. The late...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Wheat Equality in the News

White wheat is being heavily purchased by China, but not for its usual purpose. The U.S. has five major wheat classes. Hard Red Winter (HRW) is the largest...

New EPA Administrator Resetting the RFS Clock

The Senate confirmed Michael Regan to be Administrator of the U.S. EPA this week by a vote of 66-34. Since 2017, Regan has been Secretary of the North Caro...

PM Post - Soyoil Still Leads the Charge

THE OPEN May beans:  9 3/4 lower May meal:  3.50 lower May soyoil: 21 lower May corn:  4 1/2 lower May wheat:  1 1/2 lower The markets...

Technical Views - Opposite

SPREADS May crush trades up to 78c/bu while oilshare trades 40.42%, and vs. values that were 35.0% weeks ago.  July/Nov bean inverse softens to 1.55c...

AM Outlook - Choppy March

GOOD MORNING, The theme of choppy March price action continues, as inverses remain under pressure.  The exception to weakness is wheat and soyoil., th...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.385/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.425/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Market Rotation

Investors are said to be in rotation as they switch money out of momentum stocks like high tech and the Nasdaq and switch to value companies likely to bene...

Livestock Round Up: Pork Exports and ASF

As Global Agribusiness Partners reported in WPI’s China In-Country analysis yesterday, there is “uncertainty over the future outlook of China&r...

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Argentine Soy; Bullish Vegoil

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report was positive for the U.S. soy industry. Sales and exports of soybeans and soymeal were s...

Border Wars; The Green Goose; Competitive Neutrality

Border Wars Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (aka AMLO) brought a populist government into power and now instead of a Washington...

PM Post - Mired in Trading Ranges

THE OPEN May beans:  8 higher May meal:  .40 higher May soyoil:  59 higher May corn:  4 higher May wheat:  7 lower The markets ope...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 329,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 50 percent from the previous week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-week averag...

Technical Views - Higher Except Wheat

SPREADS May crush firms to 75c/bu while oilshare trades to new highs at 39.97%.  Inverses find stability.  July/Nov trades from 1.56c to 1.60 1/2...

AM Outlook - Sideways Bottom

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to head into large sideways ranges, but the disappointment over the March WASDE from the bull side continues.  Seasonall...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.34/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.525/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Fund Liquidation While Hog Rally Continues

Post-WASDE trading saw fund liquidation start in the overnight session and continue into the day session. Soybeans and corn saw the greatest pressure while...

Creating Farm Labor Shortage; Flying Solo on GDP

Creating Farm Labor Shortage Bipartisanship in the U.S. Congress has not increased much since the departure of the divisive Mr. Trump, but agriculture cont...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Prices Fall in February Due to Sharp Drop in the Cost of Pork Compared with February 2020 when China’s nationwide quarantine was...

Border Tax Complications

Food has historically been traded based on relative price whereby low-cost producers dominate the marketplace. Border tax advocates now want to add the cos...

PM Post - All Technicals

THE OPEN May beans:  22 lower May meal:  5.40 lower May soyoil:  50 lower May corn:  8 1/2 lower May wheat:  12 lower The markets...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 March 2021 Wheat prices in the southern regions of the Russian domestic grain market grew moderately while wheat prices in other...

AM Outlook - Sentiment is Lower

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower overnight on weaker crude, liquidation of weaker long positions after the March report, and the prospect for better weekend...

Technical Views - Covering Shorts

SPREADS Spreads leak lower in the aftermath of the report.  July/Nov bean inverse trades down to 1.59c from 1.66c, while May /July inverse trades down...

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS:  USDA outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use projections are mostly unchanged. Ending stocks remain at 120 million bushels, down 405 millio...

WASDE Corn

CORN: USDA’s outlook for U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.30...

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  USDA’s outlook for U.S. supply and demand outlook is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel...

WASDE Soymeal

Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $400.00 per ton.  ...

WASDE Soyoil

The soybean oil price is forecast at 41.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent from last month.  ...

WASDE Bullish Outlook for Hogs

Today’s WASDE puts total red meat and poultry production down slightly based on reduced output of broilers and pork. Beef production is up based on n...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.4575/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.565/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...

Subtle WASDE Notes

In a March WASDE report that made very few substantive changes to the supply/demand balances, it is difficult to find any notable highlights about the curr...

Livestock Debate; EU versus Brazil

Livestock Debate While activists in the U.S. pursue state-by-state law changes on farm sizes, production methods, and animal welfare requirements, the issu...

PM Post - Choppy on Blah Report

THE OPEN May beans: 1 lower May meal:  1.10 lower May soyoil:  68 higher May corn:  3 lower May wheat:  6 1/2 higher The markets opened...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Afghanistan officials say the country may need to import as much as 3 MMT of wheat in 2021/22...

Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report

SPREADS May soyoil trades to new highs at 39.0% while crush firms back to 63.55c/bu.  Bean spreads lack enthusiasm on quiet export activity with July/...

AM Outlook - Pre-report Jitters

GOOD MORNING, The March WASDE will be released at 11:00 central time.  The WASDE report will once again highlight how tight bean stocks remain, while...

Market Commentary: CBOT Rally Fades Ahead of March WASDE

The CBOT opened sharply higher Sunday night and that strength continued into early-day trade on Monday. Continued dryness for Argentina and southern Brazil...

Sovereignty’s Trap; Sustainability’s Trap; Job Requirement

Sovereignty’s Trap Beijing, Brussels, Washington, and other capitals are using the pandemic to rationalize a rush toward national self-sufficiency, b...

COVID Bill Passes Senate; Protein Exports Update

The Senate passed the $1.9 trillion COVID relief package over the weekend by a vote of 50-49. The bill changes some of the non-agriculture related provisio...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.465/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. ...

Organic versus Non-organic Corn

According to the Organic Trade Association, the demand for food certified organic has been increasing at nearly 6 percent per year. This is despite pricing...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Some winter crops have broken dormancy across France, though the pattern has been spotty so far. Conditions in the south have been favo...

PM Post - Choppy Mini-trends

THE OPEN May beans:  12 higher May meal:  1.40 higher May soyoil:  65 higher May corn:  1 1/2 higher May wheat:  2 higher The mark...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn markets are largely following the past few week’s trend. Farmers seem to be increasingly comfortable selling corn rather...

AM Outlook - Firm on SA Weather

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board with new contract highs in soyoil, canola, and beans.  November beans hit new contract highs at $12.6...

Technical Views - Upward

SPREADS May crush trades lower to 57.98c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.47%.  July/Dec bean inverse trades up to 1.79 1/4c but closes at 1.71c with a...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.455/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.53/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  May...

Trade, Growth and Stimulus; Shipping Containers

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the trade deficit in goods and services grew slightly to $68.2 billion in December 2020. U.S. exports actually increas...

Bipartisan Trade Policy; Flakes are not Farmers

Bipartisan Trade Policy Major legislation being passed on Capitol Hill this year often involves partisan votes, with Republicans in the opposition and sayi...

Produce Market Dynamics

The pricing of goods in a transparent market should divide value according to the respective value-added by each segment in the supply chain. Market failur...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

PM Post - In Ranges Ahead of WASDE

THE OPEN May beans:  12 higher May meal:  1.60 higher May soyoil:  81 higher May corn:  7 1/2 higher May wheat:  2 higher Prices o...

Technical Views - Generally Firm

SPREADS May crush trades to 63c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.0%, new market highs. Domestic basis has been strengthening, with inverses finding support a...

AM Outlook - A Firmer Day

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly higher as strong performances this week emboldens the bean and soyoil bull. Soyoil futures have been in a strong uptrend si...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.3325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.515/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Superskepticism

Talk of a new commodity supercycle largely involves big money centers like petroleum, with agricultural commodities along for the ride. After all, the near...

Inflation Focus; New WTO Skunk

Inflation Focus As the U.S. Senate debates a $1.9 trillion COVID economic recovery effort, the issue of its potential for stoking inflation has been forced...

PM Post - Sideways or New Contract Highs

THE OPEN May beans:  2 higher May meal:  steady May soyoil:  48 higher May corn:  3 1/2 lower May wheat:  7 lower The soy complex...

AM Outlook - Soy Higher; Grains Drop

GOOD MORNING, Grains continue to weaken vs. the soy complex as the soyoil market remains higher on technical and fundamental merit.   Traders con...

Technical Views - Soyoil Leads the Day

SPREADS May crush trades firmer to 64.43c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 37.41%.  July/Nov bean inverses firm again up to 1.70 3/4c from 1.67c, wh...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 219,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 31 percent from the previous week, but down 51 percent from the prior 4-week avera...

Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates Amid Argentine Dryness, Slow Export News

The CBOT was mostly lower in decidedly consolidative trade on Wednesday. Ag futures seem to be bumping up against key support levels where end-users are ex...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.56/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...

Inequivalent, Protectionist; Bulls and Pandemics

Inequivalent, Protectionist In 2012, the U.S. and EU established an agreement asserting that each other’s organic standards were substantially equiva...

China In-Country Analysis

Note to Readers Coronavirus Hits Home Despite our best efforts to practice social distancing and good hygiene, including the wearing of masks in public, ou...

Sourcing Changes; Prices Attractive

U.S. export sales are seasonally slowing, which is impacting CBOT futures. American farmers have nonetheless had a good run. The value of the dollar is up...

PM Post - Breaking Not Broken

THE OPEN May beans:  11 lower May meal:  5.00 lower May soyoil:  22 lower May corn:  7 1/2 lower May wheat:  11 1/4 lower Prices o...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 February 2021 Russian domestic grain prices followed the pattern of the previous week. Meanwhile, export milling wheat average...

Technical Views - Lower Side

SPREADS May crush continues to weaken trading down to 62.64c/bu while oilshare strengthens again to 37.26%.   July/Nov beans trades higher from 1...

AM Outlook - Swirl of Crops and Weather

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to identify trading ranges that make sense heading into the March 9 WASDE.  For the day, most of the markets are lower w...

WPI's Daily Notifier

WPI’s daily notifier of available new analysis reports may get rejected by some email programs. To avoid this problem, please add the notifier to you...

Real WTO Problem; Beggars’ Rights; Political Horse-trading

Real WTO Problem The President’s 2021 Trade Agenda and 2020 Annual Report highlights the trade protectionism in India and efforts to change New Delhi...

Ethanol Corn Use and Outlook

USDA released the January Grain Crushings report yesterday; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 11 percent from January 2020, and down 6 percent from...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.6625/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Own, Price or Cover

THE OPEN May beans:  1 lower May meal:  .80 lower May soyoil:  8 higher May corn:  1/2 lower May weather:  8 1/2 higher The market...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Wheat farmers in parts of Pakistan are complaining that government set wheat prices are going...

Technical Views - Disparate Directions

SPREADS May crush trades to 69.25c/bu while oilshare trades to 37.37%.  July/Nov beans trades down to 1.58c from 1.64c inverse, while May/July firms t...

AM Outlook - Mixed All Over

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed, higher wheat and soyoil, in what appears to be trading ranges from the top.  The higher equities market seemed to be t...

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Under Fund Liquidation, KCBT Deliveries

The CBOT started higher overnight with Argentine dryness supporting trade. The day session saw prices try to continue the rally, only to run into heavy fun...

Final Reconciliation Bill: Derecho Relief and Seafood Out

As we reported on 12 February, the House Agriculture Committee passed its portion of the budget reconciliation bill to conform with the FY 2022 budget reso...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.5025/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.&n...

Dekulakization

There is a quasi-religion that believes Big Ag is bad and small farms are better, but economics is a system and economies of scale exists as a principle re...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe is facing a favorable weather forecast for crop development and field work over the next two weeks. Temperatures will be near no...

PM Post - Reversal and Profit-taking

THE OPEN May beans:  16 higher May meal:  5.70 higher May soyoil:  24 higher May corn:  1 lower May wheat:  3 higher The markets o...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat  Argentina’s wheat markets traded a pattern similar to the prior week’s, with small movement in the FAS and FOB markets. Brazilian m...

AM Outlook - Gapping Higher

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher this morning as we begin a new month.  The Commitment-of-Traders report finds that funds did not do much adjusting to...

Technical Views - Macro Support

SPREADS May crush trades to 71c/bu while oilshare trades strongly back over 37.0% to close at 37.10%.   July/Nov bean inverse trades from 1.73 1/...

Folly of Anti-Big; Meating the Hurdles

Folly of Anti-Big A Washington Insider report states that a study by the Environmental Working Group (EWG) reveals that the Trump administration ‘aim...

COOL Front Moving In

Just as the cattle industry is recovering from the recent winter storms in the Southern Plains and cold weather in the Northern Plains, R-CALF is calling f...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

PM Post - Seasonals, OI, Old/New Crop, Etc.

THE OPEN May beans: 16 lower May meal:  5.40 lower May soyoil:  58 lower May corn:  6 lower May wheat:  9 1/4 lower Prices opened as ex...

Technical Views - Watch Carefully

SPREADS May crush trades to 70c/bu while oilshare trades to 36.93%.  Inverses are weaker with the sell-off with July/Nov beans trading down to 1.58c f...

AM Outlook - Testing Support Levels

GOOD MORNING, The markets are lower across the board on first notice day.  Traders should be out of long March futures heading into delivery.  &n...

Ag Review - February 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at policy possibilities in the year a...

Market Commentary: Big Volume Whiplash

All was well until a weak export sales report and improved prospects for South American rains triggered a get out quick mentality. Soybeans had edged up to...

Livestock Round Up: Broiler Feeding Margins

Total broiler production in 2020 was 44.57 billion pounds, up 1.5 percent over 2019 despite the COVID interruptions to slaughter facilities. This is the 18...

China In-Country Analysis: Delayed

WPI’s weekly China In-Country analysis report is delayed. Thanks for your patience and understanding. If you have any questions or comments, please f...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.4975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.7575/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close...

PM Post - Good Day to Cover Shorts, Price, or Go Long

THE OPEN May beans:  11 lower May meal:  4.00 lower May soyoil:  23 lower  May corn:  12 lower May wheat:  11 lower The marke...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 167,700 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down 58 percent from the previous week and 67 percent from the...

Technical Views - Down Cycle

SPREADS May crush trades to 61c/bu while oil share trades up to 37.17%.  July/Nov bean inverse trades firmer from 1.67 1/2c up to 1.81 3/4c, while May...

AM Outlook - Reverses on Profit-taking

GOOD MORNING, Prices were higher across the board, but after the export sales report a round of profit-taking pushed most into the red for a reversal close...

Social Engineering Trade; South Wins; Careful with Boasts

Social Engineering Trade International trade brings economic benefits and thus various interests have been trying to tap its values for many years. These i...

China In-Country Analysis: Delayed

WPI’s weekly China In-Country analysis report will be delayed until tomorrow. Thanks for your patience and understanding. If you have any questions o...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.855/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilshare Fluctuations

Soyoil prices again pushed higher than soymeal today, pushing the oilshare of product value ever higher (approx. 36.85 percent). The price difference canno...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 February 2021 Prices in the Russian domestic grain market continued to decrease because of the export duty. One week ago mainl...

PM Post - Markets Follow Vegoil

THE OPEN May beans: 15 higher May meal:  5.40 higher May soyoil:  50 higher May corn:  4 higher May wheat:  6 1/2 higher The markets op...

February Cold Storage Report

U.S. red meat and poultry stocks continue to trend below year-ago levels, driven largely by significant decreases in pork stocks. Pork stocks remain except...

AM Outlook - Weather/Demand Pushing Higher

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher after yesterday's strong performances.  Funds added length to their already long positions yesterday, buying 2000 whea...

Technical Views - Upside Channels

SPREADS May crush trades to new lows at 61c/bu while oilshare trades to new highs at 36.10%.  July/Dec corn trades from 72c to 73 3/4c, while May/July...

Analyzing Appointees; Slow Learners; Innovative Industry

Analyzing Appointees Foreign governments are not only scrutinizing the statements of President Biden, but they also investigate the backgrounds and biases...

Grain Glitch Tax Issue Making Its Way Back to Congress

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act created what was known as the “grain glitch” through the creation of the new Section 199A deduction. That provis...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5375/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.7025/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China: Corn, Soy, Meat Outlook

China has a four-step plan for improving its corn production:  GMO seeds  Improved soil quality Increasing the scale of farm operations, an...

PM Post - Some Profit-taking but Bullish

THE OPEN May beans:  22 higher May meal:  4.40 higher May soyoil:  72 higher May corn:  4 higher May wheat:  3 1/2 lower The marke...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Karachi port says that it has handled 2.5 MMT of imported wheat in the last four m...

AM Outlook - Money and Business

GOOD MORNING,  Prices climbed higher in the night session though wheat was mixed.  The extreme cold weather sent wheat prices higher last week, w...

Technical Views - Only Wheat Lower

SPREADS May crush trades down to 59c/bu, while oilshare firms to 35.91%.  Spreads recover with July/Dec corn trading from 70 1/4c up to 74 1/4c, and M...

EPA Adopting 10th District Ruling on SREs

The U.S. EPA announced a major change in the agency’s perspective on granting small refinery exemptions (SREs) under the renewable fuel standard. In...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.51/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.6975/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. ...

No. 1; Cost of Caring; Un-noble Gases

No. 1 Nothing says important better than calling something “The No. 1 document,” but China’s plan for agricultural success remains underm...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s new export tax scheme has, according to WPI sources, effectively stopped sales for the spring, and particularly new crop...

PM Post - Positioning Month

THE OPEN May beans:  2 1/2 higher May meal:  1.20 higher May soyoil:  5 higher May corn:  5 higher May wheat:  5 1/2 higher Prices...

Fake Cotton

Cotton prices have rallied 35 percent since September as it tries to keep pace with corn and soybeans in the battle for acres this spring. Unlike dryland w...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Winter Crops In a few months, farmers will start planting the winter crops. That means they are deciding whether to plant wheat or barley as a second crop...

AM Outlook - Correction Coming

GOOD MORNING, New contract highs were placed in May soyoil, May canola, and Nov beans.   The bean spread inverse leaks lower, while nearby corn s...

Technical Views - Oil Driven

SPREADS May crush trades lower to 63c/bu while oilshare trades up to 35.67%.   March/May beans traded into a 2 1/4c to 3 1/4c carry, the lowest l...

Cattle on Feed

• United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head - totaled 12.1 million. (This is the second highest February 1 inv...

Transatlantic – It’s Complicated

It is a busy week for transatlantic relations as bilateral discussions occurred via both the G-7 and the Munich Security Conference. Both the U.S. and EU a...

Cattle on Feed Inventory as Expected

USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today. The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 12.1 million head, up from Feb...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.4275/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.555/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Argentine Production Outlook

The protests by farmers and supply chain workers have settled down but now the Argentine government is going after agribusinesses. It accuses the industry...

PM Post - Awaiting Sunday Weather Forecast

THE OPEN beans:  7 higher meal:  1.50 higher soyoil:  41 higher corn: 2 1/2 higher wheat:  2 lower The markets opened as called with th...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 399,100 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average &...

AM Outlook - Weather Amid Tight Outlook

GOOD MORNING, Prices were lower at the beginning of the PM session on further fund selling based on falling volumes and technical downside follow-through,...

Technical Views - Upswing Side

SPREADS May crush trades to 69c/bu while oilshare trades back over 35.0% to 35.36%.  Corn spreads are slightly weaker with the July/Dec inverse tradin...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.4775/bushel.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.64/bushel.  Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $13.7275/bushel.  Mar 21 Soymeal clos...

Market Commentary: Flimflam Day

These are lower volume sessions with dropping open interest, indicating the shine is off on the bull market but fundamentals remain firm. The combination o...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 Februar...

PM Post - Weaker But Still Rangebound

THE OPEN May beans: 2 lower May meal:  2.90 lower May soyoil:  8 higher May corn:  1 3/4 lower May wheat:  5 1/2 higher The markets ope...

Technical Views - Wheat Returns

SPREADS May crush trades to 70.22c/bu while oilshare trades back below 35.0% to 34.85% in corrective mode, and on weaker palm and soyoil prices.  Inve...

AM Outlook - Corrections

GOOD MORNING, Funds are long, it's dry in Argentina, China is back from holiday, and the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum starts this morning.  The For...

Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Spread Trade Lifts Soymeal

The CBOT ended mostly lower as traders reversed yesterday’s pricing action. Wheat found ample sellers at the morning’s open as overnight weakne...

Updated Telegram; Farm Labor Boost

Updated Telegram Fifty-eight governments recently signed the Canadian initiated, “Declaration Against Arbitrary Arrests.” While broadly directe...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.44/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Cultural The Year of the Ox Arrives With China’s Luna New Year’s Eve occurring last Thursday, the year of the rat came to a close and the year...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 9-12 February 2021 Russian domestic grain prices decreased differently depending on when the export duty was/is going to be introduc...

PM Post - Technical Selling

THE OPEN May beans:  4 3/4 lower May meal:  2.10 lower May soyoil:  20 lower May corn:  4 1/4 lower May wheat:  12 lower The marke...

Beyond the Soybean-Corn Ratio

Energy costs are on the rise as winter weather freezes out production, but policy constructs are likely to lengthen the dynamic. The dominant political for...

AM Outlook - Between Weather and Plantings

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower with the last few hours of trade becoming more defensive, though soyoil posts another new contract high at the beginning of...

Technical Views - Weaker Start

SPREADS May crush trades to 71c/bu while oilshare trades over 35.0% to 35.21%.  July/Dec corn trades from 79 1/4c to 84 1/2c, while May/July trades fr...

Siding with the Elephants; S&DT Trap; No Effluence

Siding with the Elephants Newly installed WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala may come from a developing country but she knows her organization’...

Will Big Plans Alter Farm Bill Schedule?

Now that the ag portion of the budget reconciliation bill has passed, there are still some big plans and major new initiatives planned by the Agriculture C...

Wheat Volatility

ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5225/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.575/bushel, up $0.2075 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Solid Inverses

THE OPEN May beans: 13 higher May meal:  1.40 higher May soyoil:  87 higher May corn:  4.00 higher May wheat:  9 higher The markets ope...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Regional buyers/importers of wheat continue to watch the Russia situation very closely. As ca...

Technical Views - Risk-on Day

SPREADS May crush trades to 68c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 34.92%.  Spreads are firmer with July/Dec corn trading from 77 3/4c up to 82c inver...

AM Outlook - Bull is Back Snorting

GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer this morning on weather, constructive chart price action, higher markets elsewhere, tenders, export restrictions, and harve...

President's Day Holiday

The CBOT/CME will be closed on Monday, 15 February 2021 for the U.S. President’s Day holiday. WPI will not issue an Ag Perspectives report on Monday...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.3875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.3675/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Transatlantic Dance; Return of That 70’s Show

Transatlantic Dance Brussels and Washington are beginning to work together again. This week the EU acknowledged that America’s concern with the WTO&r...

Challenge of Reducing Chemicals

Reducing the chemical load in agriculture can be done, it is already being done to some degree, and it will be increasingly in the future. The use of crop...

PM Post - Trend Weakened, Not Failed

THE OPEN May beans:  5 higher May meal:  .80 lower May soyoil:  34 higher May corn:  1 higher May wheat:  3 higher Prices opened a...

Technical Views - Modest Day

SPREADS May crush trades to 67c/bu, while oilshare is 34.65%.  July/Dec corn trades from 74 3/4c inverse to 78c, while May/July trades down to 11 1/2c...

AM Outlook - Mixed in Range

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with corn gaining on wheat, and soyoil gaining on meal.  March beans build on gains.  We are still in demand marke...

Market Commentary: Bottomed Out

Over-bought is over and so is over-sold. The lows in the overnight session set up the day for mostly a recovery trade. Today’s bounce in corn and the...

30,000 Feet; Conflicting Demands Galore

30,000 Feet EU Council President Charles Michel told the Atlantic Council this week that if Europe and the U.S. do not solve the bilateral fight over aircr...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.335/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 591,000 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 50 percent from the prior 4-week averag...

PM Post - Price Rebound

THE OPEN May beans:  12 higher May meal:  4.00 higher May soyoil:  48 higher May corn:  3 3/4 higher May wheat:  5 3/4 higher The...

Technical Views - Reversals

SPREADS May crush trades higher to 70c /bu while oilshare trades at a steady to firm 34.81%.   Inverses find some firmness, with July/Dec corn tr...

AM Outlook - Bounce off the Bottom

GOOD MORNING,  Prices were lower in the early part of the night session but were able to recover and post higher trades for most of the markets. ...

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Follow-through Selling, Position Liquidation

The CBOT opened weaker overnight with funds taking profits following a moderately bearish WASDE yesterday and a key reversal in corn futures. That selling...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.2175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.355/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Differing Methods, Differing Outcomes

China’s corn carryover has been a mystery for many years and is ongoing due to Beijing viewing such information as protected by national security. No...

Unsustainable Sustainability; Pretend System Crisis

      Unsustainable Sustainability Agricultural producers are readying for the convening of the UN’s Food System Summit later this yea...

PM Post - Targets Head Lower

THE OPEN March beans:  17 lower March meal:  8.10 lower March soyoil:  48 lower March corn:  14 lower March wheat:  12 1/2 lower T...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 February 2021 Prices generally decreased in the Russian domestic grain market, more so for wheat (under the influence of the exp...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Prices Up Year-On-Year by 1.6 Percent in January The cost of food rose at a faster rate in January than in December when it ticked up b...

AM Outlook - Prices Peaked?

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower after a disappointing USDA Feb. report that did not deliver the bullish information as expected given fund length.  As...

Technical Views - Lower on Report

SPREADS May crush trades to 67c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.62%.  Corn spreads continue to weaken post Feb. report with July/Dec trading down to 79...

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: The soybean oil price forecast is raised 1.5 cents to 40.0 cents per pound...

WASDE Soymeal

SOYMEAL: The soybean meal price is forecast at $400.00 per short ton, up 10 dollars.  ...

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS: Soybean exports are projected at 2.25 billion bushels, up 20 million from last month reflecting record marketing-year exports through January and...

WASDE Corn

CORN: U.S. corn ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels from last month.  The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents...

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  supply and demand outlook for 2020/21 is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is raised $0.15 per bushel to $5.00. Projected 2020/...

WASDE Livestock

Today’s WASDE raised the projected estimate for red meat production by 0.9 percent over the January estimate and broiler production up just slightly...

USMCA Impacts

The U.S. – Mexico – Canada Agreement went into effect on 2 July 2020 and so it is too early to understand its impacts, but it continues to be p...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5625/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&...

PM Post - Watch the Close

THE OPEN March beans: 11 higher March meal:  3.10 higher March soyoil:  43 higher March corn:  1 3/4 higher March wheat:  5 lower The m...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Sri Lanka has decided to lease underutilized land to investors for one year in the expectatio...

AM Outlook - Firm into the Report

GOOD MORNING, The Feb. WASDE will be released at 11:00 central time.  Typically, it is not a trend changer, but given implied tighter carry-out number...

Technical Views - Subject to Change

SPREADS May cush trades to 66c/bu while oilshare trades up to 34.18%.  Spreads are strong with July/Dec corn inverting to 93 1/2c from 90c, while May/...

Sustainability Standards Setting; Addressing China

Sustainability Standards Setting There has been concern that addressing climate change and pursuing sustainability becomes a conduit for protectionism. Alr...

Ag Perspectives on Budget Reconciliation Bill

On 5 February, the Senate passed its budget resolution by a vote of 51 to 50, with Vice President Harris casting the tie breaking vote. The Budget resoluti...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.6375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.5575/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Climate Change Impacts

Agricultural trade is said to be the global movement of water, since crops generally move where water is plentiful to where it is less available. Since it...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomic Trends The Argentine economy is still not doing well. Poverty is increasing and there are multiple exchange rates with a 100 percent spread b...

PM Post - As Called

THE OPEN March beans: 8 higher March meal:  .80 higher March soyoil:  41 higher March corn:  4 higher March wheat:  8 3/4 higher Prices...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Cold temperatures are forecast for most of western and all of eastern Europe and Ukraine this week while southern Russia sees a slightl...

Technical Views - Upswing Day

SPREADS May crush trades to 65c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 34.18%.  Spreads firm back up with July/Dec corn trading to an 88 1/4c inverse high...

AM Outlook - Firmer Ahead of the Report

GOOD MORNING, Prices started the night session cautiously higher and have rallied further the last 15 minutes into the close on fund buying and better tech...

Disparate Diplomatic Policy

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) seeks to normalize relations with Cuba after the Trump Administration distanced itself from the...

Mexican Corn Gamble

U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico have been growing and there is a trade deficit; Mexico’s agricultural imports from the U.S. are stagnant at bes...

New Senate Agriculture Committee

There are five new members of the Senate Ag Committee. Given the 50/50 split in the Senate, there will be an even split on the Committee, 11 Democrats and...

WPI February 2021 S&D Estimates

The 2020/21 crop year has been nothing if not interesting and heavy on forecast revisions from every analytical firm. The presence of La Nina in the Pacifi...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.4125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nb...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

 The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity...

PM Post - Still Hanging Close to Highs

THE OPEN March beans:  5 higher Mach meal:  1.00 higher March sooil:  6 higher March corn:  3/4 lower March wheat:  6 higher Price...

Technical Views - Prices are Working

SPREADS May crush trades to 63c/bu while oilshare is 33.80%.  Spreads are steady with July/Dec corn inverse trading to 86 1/4c from 83c and May/July a...

AM Outlook - Defining Value Ranges

GOOD MORNING, The markets put in a fairly subdued trade in the PM session as we head into the February 9 WASDE next week.  Some feel that the USDA may...

Market Commentary: Chop Shop

The market was called mixed at the open, and it followed suit. There is rising open interest, some rising prices, but volume was unremarkable except in whe...

Livestock Roundup: Heavy Slaughter Weights

The January WASDE report lowered previous forecasts for 2021 beef production based on lower expected carcass weights. That report also projected lower weig...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.375/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...

Beating GI’s with EI’s; Hard to Beat Meat; Food Irony

Beating GI’s with EI’s Robert Bonnie is the new senior advisor for climate at USDA and his description of the agency’s approach to farmer...

PM Post - Split Decision with Profit-taking

THE OPEN March beans:  3 1/2 higher March meal:  .40 lower March soyoil:  23 higher March corn:  1 1/4 higher March wheat:  5 lowe...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 643,100 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 69 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average...

AM Outlook - Stabilizing

GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to trade in defined ranges, with an overwhelming nod to chart stabilization yesterday.   Corn trades to new co...

Technical Views - Strong Except Soft Wheat

SPREADS May crush trades 63.20c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.61% which seems to find some market stabilization.  Spreads are also firmer with July/D...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.52/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.4825/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  M...

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