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AM Outlook - Rebound

GOOD MORNING, As we move into the month of June, traders will continue to watch weather and demand.  Prices regrouped last week after dropping to mont...

Technical Views - Readjustment

SPREADS August crush trades at 74.58c/bu while oilshare is 44.12%.  Jly/Nov bean inverse drops to 1.53 3/4c from 1.58 3/4c as traders will have to beg...

Memorial Day Holiday

Monday, 31 May is a U.S. holiday, and the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 1...

Fast Reversal; Green Test Case; Teaspoon of Sugar

Fast Reversal On Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai told Reuters that, “It’s impossible to predict the organic development of a...

$6 Trillion Budget Unveiled

The White House released the President’s Budget today; it is a $6 trillion dollar package that picks up where the COVID pandemic relief spending left...

Climate Ghosts

Mexico’s Deputy Central Bank Governor Irene Espinosa is doing what many other politicians do when they want innocence from a problem – blame gl...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

No Technical Perspectives Today

Due to the Memorial Day holiday, there will be no Technical Perspectives reports today. The next reports will be on Tuesday, 1 June 2021...

Market Commentary: Thirsty Thursday

Markets do not often hit their daily trading limit, but corn got there today and there were mostly bulls across the complex. The trade had driven prices do...

Livestock Round Up: Where’s the Beef? Argentina Bans Exports

The U.S. beef cutout is still at elevated levels and cattle prices are in the doldrums as capacity and labor issues create a kink in the value chain. Botto...

Ag Review - May 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine issues surrounding market demand...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.645/bushel, up $0.4 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.7625/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. ...

Bipolar World Returns; Transatlantic Speech Divide

Bipolar World Returns Russia and China have been presenting a united front to the West, but the West has not been reciprocating, until now. President Biden...

PM Post - Stronger than Expected

THE OPEN July beans: 2 higher July meal: 2.00 higher July soyoil:  35 higher July corn:  8 higher July wheat:  10 higher The markets opened...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 29,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 76 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average.&n...

AM Outlook - Corn Export Driver

GOOD MORNING,  Prices were mixed with the grains firmer vs. the soy complex, but after export sales all rallied into the close.  For bulls, the g...

Technical Views - Better Supported

SPREADS August crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 44.51%.  July/Nov beans traded down to .52 1/4c inverse from 1.59c.  July/Dec meal...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.245/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.485/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...

Antitrust Dust; GMO Spin; Inflation-Catastrophes

Antitrust Dust European antitrust officials have been busy, and their latest target is a large but declining giant called Coca Cola. The investigation migh...

China In-Country Analysis

Pandemic Growing Uncertainty Over COVID-19’s Origin Deepens Rift Despite the hot start for U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2021, Beijing’...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 May 2021 Russian domestic grain markets did not see any major price shifts, and although the market continued to show bullish...

PM Post - The Close

THE OPEN July beans:  5 lower July meal: 3.00 lower July soyoil:  29 lower July corn:  3 lower July wheat:  10 lower The markets opened...

AM Outlook - Weekend Exit

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to establish lower trading ranges with soyoil once again the leader to the upside.  It is typical that markets will foll...

Technical Views - Pressure Remains Downward

SPREADS August crush trades to 77c/bu while oilshare trades to 44.83%.  Bean bull spreads are firmer with Jly/Nov trading up to 1.69c from 1.61c. ...

Climate Strategy: “USDA Setting Clear Price Signals”

On 16 November, after the election, we reported on the transition memo for USDA to provide “recommendations that can help the President hit the groun...

Market Commentary: Funds Pummel CBOT; Market Weakness Confirms Tops Were Made

The CBOT fell sharply (except for soyoil, which seems to be living in its own little world) with funds quickly and aggressively liquidating long positions,...

That is Nutty Policy

The U.S. Commerce Department is doubling the tariff on softwood lumber imported from Canada to 18.32 percent. The hike is coming at a time of record lumber...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.2025/bushel, down $0.37 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.565/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&n...

PM Post - Everyone Out

THE OPEN: July beans: 8 higher July meal: 1.40 lower July soyoil: 75 higher July corn: 3 1/2 lower July wheat: 2 higher The markets opened as called but...

That’s Nuts

When it comes to almonds, the U.S. is the world’s largest producer by far. It produces over 80 percent of the world’s almond crop. However, whe...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The owners of the container ship that blocked the Suez Canal – Ever Given – are c...

Technical Views - CBOT Trying to Find Lows

NOTE: Technical Perspectives from WPI will not be published Friday, May 28, 2021. SPREADS August crush trades at 75c/bu while oilshare declines t...

AM Outlook - Soy Complex Gains on Grains

NOTE: Technical Perspectives from WPI will not be published on May 28, 2021. Good morning -  Prices traded higher overnight led by soyoil, w...

Market Commentary: CBOT Starts the Week Lower; End-Users Buy the Break

The CBOT started the week on a weaker note with funds taking a more defensive position after last week’s selloff. Nearly all CBOT contracts were lowe...

Productivity Impacts; Classic Policy Divides

Productivity Impacts The Kansas City Federal Reserve kicked off its annual conference on agriculture with this year’s topic seemingly a little tin ea...

Uncertain Values

British farmers are upset that their government may give access to the UK market to beef from Australia. They argue that they are not competitive against t...

2021 and 2022 RVOs Could be Kept at 2020 Levels

The EPA is floating a trial balloon of maintaining the 2020 RVOs for 2021 and 2022. In April, a group of Senators urged EPA to add 500 million gallons to t...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5725/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6225/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina  Argentina’s corn harvest is progressing slowly but gaining speed. Harvest gained 3 percent last week, bringing the total to 27.6...

PM Post - Weight of Benign Weather

NOTE: LCF will be closed May 28.   THE OPEN July beans:  7 3/4 lower July  meal:  2.30 lower Juy soyoil:  45 lower Jul corn: ...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s 1 May grain stocks totaled 9.5 MMT in 2021, up 0.18 MMT from the same period in 2020. Notably, wheat stocks were up 8 p...

AM Outlook - Possible Stabilization This Week

GOOD MORNING, Prices were lower overnight as a combination of good weather and poor technical closes created more fund long liquidation.  The trend co...

Technical Views - Sell on Rallies

SPREADS August crush atrades to 79.80c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.60%.  July/Nov bean inverse firms from its lows of 1.63 1/4c to trades up to 1.7...

Cattle on Feed

1. United States Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent  2. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of...

Contrasting Climate Approaches

While the EU is developing a command-and-control approach toward making farming more climate friendly, the newly announced Biden Administration approach is...

Cattle on Feed: May 2021 Tighter than May 2019

USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today. The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 11.7 million head, 105 percent...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.595/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.7425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Reliability versus Value in Beef

Argentina’s restriction on beef exports to control domestic inflation and political upheaval could raise issues over reliability as a supplier. Howev...

PM Post - Liquidating Length

THE OPEN July beans:  12 lower July meal:  2.20 lower July soyoil:  89 lower July corn:  8 lower July wheat:  6-7 lower The market...

Technical Views - Down She Goes

SPREADS August crush trades to 81c/bu while oil share trades to 43.51%.  Bean inverses are weaker with July/Nov trading down to 1.60c from 1.65 3/4.&n...

AM Outlook - Taking Profits

GOOD MORNING, Prices started mixed overnight, but mostly on the defensive led by beans and soyoil futures. This morning we are seeing another round of end-...

Market Commentary: Recognizing the Top

Some say it is hard to know the top of a market, but the funds think they’ve seen it and this Friday’s Commitment of Traders report is likely t...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 May 103...

PM Post - Grains Firmer; Oilseeds Weaker

THE OPEN July beans:  1 3/4 lower July meal:  2.00 higher July soyoil:  1.40 lower July corn:  3 higher July wheat:  1/4 lower Pri...

Export Sales

Exporters for the period May 7-May 13, 2021. Wheat:  Net sales of 121,000 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and...

AM Outlook - Soyoil's Turn to Dip

GOOD MORNING, Prices found early strength at the open on a follow-through comeback for July corn which closed unchanged after opening sharply lower yesterd...

Technical Views - Riding a Lower Range

SPREADS July crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 44.52%.   The July/Nov bean inverse trades to 1.69c, off the low of 1.66c, and up to...

Soy Complex Collapses; Corn Fights Back, KS Wheat Yields Grow

The CBOT tumbled again on Wednesday amid increased chatter about a near-term market top. July and November soybeans violated technical support at the open,...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5825/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.7925/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Challenges Mount for China’s Hog Producers Ongoing problems with breeding sows, the cost of piglets, falling live hog prices, and the high...

PM Post - Topped Out?

THE OPEN July beans:  26 lower July meal:  1.80 lower July soyoil:  205 pts lower July corn:  6 1/2 lower July wheat:  17 lower Th...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 May 2021 Corn, barley, and wheat prices on the domestic market continued to grow while rye prices decreased. Apart from the gl...

Technical Views - All Lower

SPREADS July crush trades to 82c/bu while oilshare trades to 44.85%.  Bean inverses weaken while corn inverses strengthen.  Jul/Nov bean spread i...

AM Outlook - Macro Sell-off

GOOD MORNING, Prices were on the defensive once again as the markets continued to leak lower as funds liquidate more length.  Would note that outside...

Market Commentary: Rhythm Trading

It might be the rhythm method if funds are withdrawing but in a market in which there are few fundamentals pushing the trade outside of its technical bound...

More Demand but No More Chickens

Packing capacity has been an issue not only for cattle and beef production, but for broilers also. Production is also slowed by various issues like labor a...

Forecasting Pork Demand

U.S. hog and pork markets exploded this year with pork prices challenging the COVID-19 pandemic highs and hog values challenging record highs set during th...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  In Egypt, the Sues Canal Authority has announced plans to deepen and widen the southern stret...

CPTPP Appeal; Food Opponents; TRIPS for Free

CPTPP Appeal China’s aggressive effort to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) may be having an uni...

PM Post - Poor Performance for Soy Complex

THE OPEN July beans:  7 higher July meal:  .30 higher July soyil:  84 higher July corn:  9 1/2 higher July wheat:  6 3/4 higher Th...

Technical Views - From Low to Higher

SPREADS August crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare trades t. 443.39%.  July oilshare trades to 45.67%. July/Nov beans traded from 1.90 3/4c to 1.95c...

AM Outlook - Tuesday's Turnaround

GOOD MORNING, Turn-around Tuesday is here and values are higher on a combination of short-covering, bargain - hunting, and pricing activity.  July soy...

Anti-Meat Campaign; Personnel Picks

Anti-Meat Campaign The number of media articles against consuming meat and poultry is beginning to spike. They cover the range of arguments served up by ve...

Cattle Producer Agenda

Last Monday, principals of several cattle producer groups met in Phoenix at a meeting convened by the Livestock Marketing Association (LMA). Participants i...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.525/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.9975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina Farmers are still focused on harvesting soybeans, which means the corn harvest is progressing very slowly and is delayed versus the prior ye...

Lumber Price Turnaround

After more than a year of sharply rising prices, softwood lumber is finally starting to show some cracks. Due to circumstances related to COVID, softwood l...

PM Post - Rallies Not Holding

THE OPEN July beans:  10 higher July meal:  6.00 higher July soyoil:   20 pts higher July corn:  8 higher July wheat:  4 1/2...

Technical Views - Wheat Drags on Market

SPREADS August crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.29%.  Bull spreads are rallying again with July/Nov beans trading back to 1.95 1/2c...

AM Outlook - Mixed Up

GOOD MORNING, Prices will open mixed after all were trading lower at one point during the PM session.   July open interest continued to drop, as...

EU Gets Nutrition Right; Sensing Weakness; Farming Future

EU Gets Nutrition Right It looks messy, with fights over food labeling, red light systems versus front of package, etc. But EU policymakers see the rise in...

Consumer Spending and Retail Food Inflation

There’s been a lot of media coverage of inflation since the April consumer price index (CPI) report. Consumer prices rose 0.8 percent in April, the f...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Tighter Global Stocks

This year has seen higher commodity prices spiked by tighter ending stocks for some key commodities. However, reductions unique to this year relative to th...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.4375/bushel, down $0.31 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.0725/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&nb...

PM Post - Still Defending

THE OPEN July beans:  20 higher July meal:  8.30 higher July soyoil:  82 higher July corn:  9 higher July wheat:  20 1/2 higher Th...

AM Outlook - Bottom Tested

GOOD MORNING, Funds headed for the exits as charts started to build in resistance leading to selling yesterday, triggering sell-stops.  Funds sold 16,...

Technical Views - Bounce Day

SPREADS July crush trades to 73c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 43.61%.   July/Nov bean inverse bounces to 2.00c with a low of 1.84c.  J...

Market Commentary: Not Dull

Okay, the market is not dull, but it is sometimes difficult to explain. Except for wheat, the sharp sell-off appears as an over-reaction to yesterday&rsquo...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.4 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.015/bushel, down $0.2825 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Greening GMO’s; Good Regulatory Approach; AMLO Thumps Biden

Greening GMO’s The European Court of Justice correctly lumped all genetic modification technologies into one heap and now the technology is being car...

PM Post - Washout

THE OPEN July beans:  20 lower July meal:  6.20 lower July soyoil:  64 lower July corn:  17 lower July wheat: 7 1/2 lower The markets o...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 30,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 61 percent from the prior 4-week avera...

Technical Views - All Going Down

SPREADS July crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 42.68%.  Inverses remain well supported with July/Nov beans trading to 1.95c to 2.08c.&nb...

AM Outlook - Weather, Stocks and Funds

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board on profit-taking heading into the weekend.  The USDA report has come and gone, and we are left looking...

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: Soybean oil is expected to hold a higher share of the crush value as prices are buoyed by increased use of soybean oil as a feedstock in an expandi...

WASDE Soymeal

SOYMEAL: soybean crush for 2021/22 is projected at 2.2 billion bushels, up 35 million from the 2020/21 forecast, reflecting favorable crush margins. ...

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS:  The 2021/22 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for lower supplies, lower exports, higher crush, and higher ending stocks compared with 2020/21.&n...

WASDE Corn

CORN: The corn crop is projected at 15.0 billion bushels, up from last year on higher area and a return to trend yield.  The yield projection of 179.5...

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  The initial outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks.  Supplies are...

Market Commentary: Unsurprising Surprise

Today’s USDA WASDE report was not what the trade thought, and yet it was not caught flat-footed. To some degree this is because years of guessing wro...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Live Hog Producers Confront the Scissors Effect Record feed costs, historically high piglet prices, biosafety costs, and declining...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $7.1475/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.2975/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&n...

PM Post - Mixed Bag

THE OPEN July beans:  19 higher July meal:  1.40 higher July soyoil:  99 higher July corn:  1 higher July wheat:  5 lower The mark...

Ethanol Price Impact

The June ethanol futures contract hit a record high last week at $2.29/gallon but that may not have a lasting effect on exports. The market has been in rec...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 May 2021 Corn, barley, and wheat prices on the domestic market grew following global trends. The export milling wheat average pr...

Technical Views - Two Sides of a Report

SPREADS July crush falls to 74.32c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 42.24%.  Bull spreads see more strength with Jul/Nov beans trading up to 2.04 3/...

AM Outlook - WASDE a Reference, Not the Bible

GOOD MORNING, The bulls continue to roll on with more strength overnight emanating from a strong close and reversal from Monday's weakness that more or les...

Summary of Futures

CORN July 2021 ($/bu) $7.2225 WHEAT July 2021 ($/bu) $7.4175 HARD RED WINTER WHEAT July 2021 $7.1050 HARD RED SPRING WHEAT July 2021 $7.7050 SOYBEANS July...

Market Commentary: End-Users Bid CBOT Higher Ahead of WASDE

The CBOT started the day lower with continued fund liquidation in the major ag commodities. End-users, however, stepped up and offered support at key techn...

Labor Situation and Livestock

Tomorrow, USDA releases its monthly WASDE report. Last month’s report projected red meat and poultry production in 2021 to be 100.7 percent of 2020...

Free with a Twist; Cleaner Economy

Free with a Twist A group of U.S. Congressional Democrats are proposing universal free meals to all school children. The massive expansion in federal food...

Ethanol Ripple Effects

Brazilian ethanol prices have been rising, which has usually been good for U.S. ethanol exports. Bloomberg reports that increased demand for transportation...

PM Post - Air in the Market but Bottom Found

THE OPEN July beans:  10 higher July meal:   6.20 higher July soyoil:  13 lower Jul corn:  12 higher July wheat:  10 higher T...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The Muslin holy month of Ramadan ends this week and is followed by the Eid al Fitr celebratio...

Technical Views - Mostly Higher

  SPREADS   July crush is trading at 84.58c/bu while oilshare trades to 41.69% as it continues to correct.  July /Nov bean spread bounces ba...

AM Outlook - Bears versus Bulls

GOOD MORNING, After remaining mostly steadfast in their fund positions over the last few weeks, the funds finally decided to liquidate a portion of their p...

Market Commentary: Correct(ion)!

The CBOT ended sharply lower on Monday with corn and wheat leading the downside move. Both markets had achieved strongly overbought levels last week and we...

Money Games; Misdirected Trade Policy

Money Games SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is a familiar face to the agriculture community, having chaired the CFTC during the Obama Administration. He is repor...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $7.1175/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.305/bushel, down $0.3125 from yesterday's close.&...

Colonial Pipeline Cyber Attack and Biofuels

On Friday, the Colonial Pipeline, which is the largest refined product pipeline in the U.S., running 5,500 miles from Texas to New Jersey, was attacked by...

Mismeasurements

The activist community wonders why there can be food waste and hungry people at the same time. They want the rich countries to solve the problem, but it is...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina  Argentina’s weather has been ideal for harvesting but farmers are still focused on soybeans. This week’s corn harvest prog...

PM Post - Healthy Consolidation

THE OPEN July beans:  1 lower July meal:   .80 lower July  soyoil:  14 lower July corn:  5 lower July wheat:  15 lower&n...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Favorable rains forecast for Europe in the coming week will aid winter crop development and help recently planted spring crops establis...

Technical Views - Some Higher, Some Lower

SPREADS July crush trades to 88.94c/bu while oilshare trades to 42.18%.   Spreads are higher this morning with July/Nov bean inverse firming to 1...

AM Outlook - Correction Mode

GOOD MORNING, The overnight markets were in correction mode for the PM session, led by wheat as better weekend rains were noted.  The markets closed m...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

  The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodit...

Friday Policy Shorts

Designed Obsolescence: According to NielsenIQ, 50 of the 52 food categories it tracks are more expensive than a year ago, with butter and milk being the on...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $7.3225/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.6175/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...

30,000-Foot View: Technology, Politics and Policy

A good topic for Friday is the big picture outlook of what is on the horizon, the so-called “30,000-foot view” so named because that is the cru...

Income and Deficits

Matthew Klein (Barrons) and Michael Pettis (Peking University) have authored the book, Trade Wars are Class Wars. In it, they argue that countries like Ger...

PM Post - Fire Sells the Fact

THE OPEN July beans: 7 higher July meal:  3.20 higher July soyoil:  84 higher July corn: 7 1/2 higher July wheat:  11 higher The market open...

Technical Views - Higher But Could Waffle

SPREADS July crush trades to 86c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.09%.   July /NOv bean inverse falls to 1.52 3/4c from 1.60 1/2c while July/Dec me...

AM Outlook - Fundamentals versus RSI's

GOOD MORNING, Overnight prices were once again higher on technical follow-through to the upside of new contract highs.  Wheat and meal remain the exce...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $7.1875/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.5325/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Market Commentary: Records Were Broken

It was another elevated day in the agricultural commodity markets. New contract highs were set in soft-red wheat, lean hogs, December corn, July Malaysian...

Inverses in Support; Defund the Cages

Inverses in Support Developing countries want the WTO to impose new disciplines on agricultural domestic supports by rich countries. They correctly argue t...

China In-Country Analysis

Market Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China See Best 1st Quarter Since 2014 Courtesy of booming corn, soybean, wheat, sorghum, meat, almond, and pecan shipments...

PM Post - Revealing Charts and Price Action

THE OPEN July beans:  17 higher July meal:  3.30 higher July soyoil:  1.13 higher July corn: 3 1/2 higher July wheat:  7 lower The mark...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales reductions of 95,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the...

Technical Views - Mostly Well Supported

SPREADS July oilshare trades to 43.05% while crush trades up to 92c/bu.  Spreads recover after selling off to some lows for beans with Jly/Nov trading...

AM Outlook - Brazil Drought Effects

GOOD MORNING, Prices will open mixed with weaker wheat against strength elsewhere on the board.  This has become a technically driven market as prices...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $7.085/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.445/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. ...

Dalian Futures Market Analysis

April Trading Volume Falls on Lower Feed Demand Following a blistering first quarter, futures trading volume on the Dalian Commodities Exchange (DCE) fell...

PM Post - Buying on Breaks

THE OPEN July beans:  10 higher Julu meal:  2.00 higher July soyoil:  34 higher July corn:  1 lower July wheat:  1 higher The mark...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 April 2021 Corn, barley, and wheat prices on the domestic market grew following global trends. The export milling wheat averag...

Technical Views - Corn Overbought

SPREADS July crush improves to 90c/bu while oilshare trades to 42.99%.  Inverses have come down a touch, led by corn.  July/Dec corn inverse trad...

AM Outlook - Lots of Support

GOOD MORNING, Funds continue to buy the market and are now long an estimated 180K beans, 50K meal, 106K soyoil, 390K corn, and even wheat.   On M...

Market Commentary: Major Themes and Major Trends Continue

Yesterday’s price weakness was met with renewed buying interest in the overnight session that carried markets higher. Strength continued into the day...

Due Diligence Criticism; Ellard High Quality

Due Diligence Criticism A piece in Politico by Europe-based reporters Eddy Wax and Sarah Anne Aarup entitled, “How Brussels Wants to Make Your Shoppi...

Ethanol Exports and Domestic Production Rebound

Ethanol exports in March were 133 million gallons and more than a third of that went to China. The 48.3 million gallons exported to China is the second hig...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.9675/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.2675/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Price Drives Wheat as Feed

The use of wheat as animal feed is expected to hit a 25-year high in 2021. As noted by Carl Zulauf of Ohio State University, it is the ratio of the price o...

PM Post - Good Buying Activity

THE OPEN July beans:  17 higher July meal:  4.90 higher July soyoil:  92 higher July corn:  14 higher July wheat:  8 3/4 higher Th...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) said it will begin selling its grain silos during 2021. SAGO...

AM Outlook - Bouncing Back

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher in the PM session after yesterday's defensive price action.   Much of the world was closed Monday with others out...

Technical Views - Sideways Upswing

SPREADS July crush trades to 83.30c/bu while oilshare is at 43.25%.  July /Nov beans find support at 1.77c with a rally back to 1.83c.  May/July...

Technical Barriers on Steroids; TRIPS Waiver

Technical Barriers on Steroids A WTO report indicates that regulatory costs account for 14 percent of trade costs, but that share is about to get much high...

Shipping Containers and Food Box Program Still Unsettled

The ag and food supply chain is recovering from COVID and at least two key aspects of that process are becoming policy debates. The first is the ongoing di...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.795/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.18/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Durum Was Hot

Sosland Publishing notes that the pandemic boosted pasta and therefore durum wheat consumption. Exports by Italy jumped 30 percent and Strategie Grains not...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina Farmers are still focused on harvesting soybeans, which means the corn harvest is progressing very slowly and is delayed versus the prior ye...

PM Post - Profits, Technical Selling

THE OPEN July beans:  18 higher July meal:  2.50 lower July soyoil:  2.10 higher July corn:  20 3/4 higher July wheat:  7 3/4 high...

Farewell Bob, We Will Miss You

We regret to inform long-time Ag Perspectives readers of the passing of Robert Kohlmeyer. Bob had a long and prolific career, first with Cargill and then w...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Black Sea weather patterns are trending cold and dry. Temperatures are too cold for crop growth and a large portion of the central whea...

Technical Views - Strong, Not So Strong

SPREADS July crush trades to 91.92c/bu while oilshare jumps to 43.14%.  July/Nov beans posts a new high at 2.00c with a low of 1.89 1/2c, while May/Ju...

AM Outlook - Friendly in Nature

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board on technical follow-through from Friday's strong day of trade, with opening gaps in every market except me...

Losing to China; Losing the WTO

Losing to China The theme of President Joe Biden’s address to Congress this week was captured in his statement that, “China and other countries...

Chicken Sandwich Shortage

The media is abuzz over the recent uptick in American fast food chicken sandwich consumption and the resulting purported shortages. If there were a shortag...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

The Cost of COVID Recovery and the Economy

In his address to Congress this week, President Biden laid out two major initiatives, the American Families Plan and the American Jobs Plan. According to a...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.25 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.3475/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Spreads = Tale of Two Markets

THE OPEN July beans:  9 lower July meal:  3.80 lower July soyoil:  57 lower July corn:  1/ higher July wheat:  9 1/2 lower The mar...

AM Outlook - Caution and Profit-taking

GOOD MORNING, Prices are leaning lower in the overnight session as the much talked about first notice day is here.  Soyoil and beans traded lower into...

Technical Views - Downside profit-taking

SPREADS July crush trades down to 83c/bu while oilshare trades at 41.58%.  Spreads are weaker with deliveries, with May/July beans trading to an inver...

Market Commentary: Game of Spreads

Volatility remains the best descriptor for the futures market as today saw a mixed opening, some see-sawing up and down, and finally a mixed closing. The c...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.4825/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.29/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 223,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 73 percent from the prior 4-week averag...

GMO Battle Ahead; GMO Barrier to Trade

GMO Battle Ahead The future of farming, which is to say producing enough food under the duress of climate change and with less burden on the environment wi...

Ag Review - April 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine issues surrounding livestock, th...

PM Post - Not the Top

THE OPEN July beans:  9 higher July meal:  .20 lower July soyoil:  64 higher July corn: 3 3/4 higher July wheat:  1 3/4 lower The marke...

Technical Views - Support for Higher Values

SPREADS July crush trades to 84c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 42.25%.  Spreads remain strong with July/Nov beans closing at the highs of 1.95 1/...

AM Outlook - New Positions

GOOD MORNING, The mission of the market is now to define trading ranges from our new ctr highs heading into the summer.  Increased talk of increased U...

Market Commentary: Uncertain CBOT Outlook Drives Volatility

CBOT markets pulled back hard overnight and followed through on yesterday’s hook reversals. Overnight trading volume was large, and more than 70,000...

Inflation Downplayed; Squashing Taste

Inflation Downplayed U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed recent signals of inflation, arguing they would settle down later in the y...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.44/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.2275/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...

Rapeseed Production Increases

Over the past 10-months, surplus stocks of most major vegetable oils have declined, causing prices to rise. The exceptions are surplus supplies of rapeseed...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Cash Live Hog Price Shows Further Weakness, Futures Rise The national average live hog price showed further weakness last week after a solid reco...

PM Post - Bulls Get Technical

THE OPEN July beans:  9 lower Jul meal: .20 lower Jly soyoil:  93 lower July corn:  12 lower July wheat:  16 lower The markets started...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 April 2021 Grain prices on the domestic market mainly grew following global trends. Export milling wheat average price grew to...

AM Outlook - Correction Over?

GOOD MORNING,  Prices saw down-side follow-through overnight following the sell-off yesterday.  Is the panic buying over?  We are approachin...

Technical Views - Defining New Bottom

SPREADS  July crush trades to 83c/bu while oilshare trades to 41.10%.  Spreads remain firm with July/Nov trading up to 1.85 1/2c from 1.73 1/2c.&...

Market Commentary: Hook Reversal, Line and Sinker?

Multiple CBOT markets/contracts formed a moderately bearish “hook reversal” on Tuesday. A hook reversal is a day when a contract trades to a ne...

F2F Fight; Meat’s Message; Colossal WTO Fight

F2F Fight The battle between the EU’s new Green Deal and Farm2Fork strategies and U.S. farmers was joined today at a meeting of the Chicago-based Far...

Record Dairy Cow Herd… But For How Long?

The economic bounce from the re-opening economy – including restaurants and schools – seemed to have been a bigger force than high feed prices...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.545/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.3275/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...

Not on My Turf

In 1968, the U.S. had 29 percent of the global market for wheat flour and Turkey had a 0.004 percent share. By 2019, The U.S. share was down to 3.4 percent...

PM Post - Coverage and Profits

THE OPEN July beans: 2 higher July meal:  2.40 lower July soyoil:  1.40 higher July corn;  2 higher July wheat:  3 higher The markets o...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Syria is reported to have covered most of its wheat needs into 2022 through arrangements with Russi...

AM Outlook - High RSI's

GOOD MORNING, New highs were again posted for some of the markets.  May beans trades over $16.00, while May corn trades over $7.00.  Corn prices...

Technical Views - Over-extension

SPREADS July crush trades up to 91.39c/bu while oil share trades to new highs of 42.29%.  Jul/Dec corn inverse trades up to 97c, new highs, from 90 1/...

Market Commentary: New Highs to Start the Week; Technical Buying Rules the Day

Corn, soybeans, wheat, KC wheat, and soyoil all posted fresh contract highs to start the week. Continued dryness in Brazil and rising basis in the U.S. spa...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.575/bushel, up $0.25 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.395/bushel, up $0.2725 from yesterday's close. ...

Green Spin

President Biden’s announced commitment to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in half in just nine years is being viewed as nothing but a political doc...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina  It has been a very interesting week for the corn market. Argentina’s corn harvest is moving slowly with rains and high soil mois...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Markets are increasingly concerned about growing dryness in the Northern Hemisphere. Drought is expanding in the U.S. Northern Plains a...

Resilient Meat Production

Surplus corn stocks are tightening, and prices are rising, which should ration demand from users such as the livestock sector. However, looking back at the...

PM Post - Higher and Sometimes Overbought

THE OPEN July beans:  15 higher July meal:  3.50p higher  July soyoil:  38 higher July corn:  22 higher  July wheat:  21...

Technical Views - Heading Upward

SPREADS July crush trades at  69.52c /bu while oilshare trades down to 40.99%.  Spreads remain firm with July/NOv inverse from 1.84 1/2c down to...

AM Outlook - Same Bullish Story

GOOD MORNING, Prices trade to new contract highs across the board once again, (except for meal), as Brazil remains dry, weather in the US remains problemat...

Market Commentary: Funds Trade Both Sides to End Week of Massive Rallies

The CBOT traded both sides of unchanged at the end of a volatile week filled with large rallies. Grain and oilseed futures dipped lower overnight and teste...

Biden Trade Policy; Biden Farm Eco-Policy

Biden Trade Policy President Joe Biden has tried to make clear that his trade policy is starkly different that his predecessors, both for its focus on coll...

Cattle on Feed: Near Record April Inventory

USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today. The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 11.5 million head, up 105 perc...

Cattle on Feed

• U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent on April 1, 2021 at 11.9 million head. • Placements in feedlots during March totaled 2.00 million head, 28 per...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $6.555/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.1225/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

April Cold Storage Report

U.S. red meat and poultry stocks continue to trend below year-ago levels, driven largely by decreases in pork stocks but tigthening beef supplies as well...

PM Post - Profits Before Weekend

THE OPEN July beans:  3 1/2 lower July meal:  2.50 lower July soyoil:  5 lower July corn:  5 lower July wheat:  1/2 lower The mark...

Not Just Food

The tightening global stocks situation is not just impacting food crops but fiber as well. Global production of cotton is down 7.4 percent at the same time...

Technical Views - Pausing to Profit and Digest

SPREADS July crush trades to 68.20c/bu while oilshare trades up to 41.0%.  Spreads remain firm with July/Nov bean inverse trading up to 1.81 1/2c from...

AM Outlook - Weather, Fundamentals, Macros

GOOD MORNING, It's a weather story, it's a fundamental story, it's a macro story.   In bear markets, all the news is bad news, and in bull market...

Market Commentary: Run on the Bank

Wall Street was shedding value today and it appeared to all be going to Chicago. There were very high trading volumes even in soymeal, which otherwise had...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $6.505/bushel, up $0.25 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.105/bushel, up $0.355 from yesterday's close.  J...

China Bashing; Lesson for Dairy

China Bashing The U.S. Senate Committee on Finance held a hearing today on U.S.-China Relations: Improving U.S. Competitiveness Through Trade. The hearing...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 240,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up 55 percent from the prior 4-week avera...

PM Post - Pricing Ideas Raised

THE OPEN July beans:  18 higher July meal:  1.50 higher July soyoil:  139 pts higher July corn: 7 higher July wheat:  4 higher Prices o...

Summary of Futures

Wheat:  Net sales of 240,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up 55 percent from the prior 4-week avera...

Technical Views - Higher in Range

SPREADS July crush trades to 64.80c/bu while oilshare trades to 40.93%.  Jly/Dec corn trades above 70c to 75c inverse, and pullbacks could continue to...

AM Outlook - Funds Push Higher

GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight continued strong and posted several more contract highs.  Funds were adding to long positions in a big way yesterday, a...

Right Sized; Russian Meltdown

Right Sized How large should farms be? That has become an issue in Europe, which like the U.S. started as a social issue but is now morphing in the EU into...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $6.255/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.75/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close.  J...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock First Quarter Data On Hog Recovery Progress Sends Mixed Signals According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country&rsquo...

Hire Better Lobbyists

The Biden Administration has put forth a proposed $2+ trillion plan partially dedicated to improved national infrastructure and paid for by the wealthy and...

PM Post - The Close

THE OPEN July beans:  2 lower July meal:  3.00 lower July soyoil:  33 higher July corn:  3 lower  July  wheat:  3 lower...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 April 2021 Grain prices on the domestic market mainly grew following global trends and an increase of the export prices becaus...

Technical Views - Mixed on Adjustments

SPREADS July crush trades to 61.87c/bu while oilshare values trades higher to 40.24%.  Bean spreads are firmer with July/Nov trading up to 1.63 3/4c f...

AM Outlook - Potential Reversal Trade

GOOD MORNING, Corn and bean prices set new contract highs again overnight before seeing some morning profit-taking.  Soyoil futures also set new contr...

Market Commentary: Funds are Massive Buyers on Rising Basis, U.S. Cold Snap

The CBOT rallied sharply on Tuesday with corn and soybeans posting new contract highs overnight. The day session saw funds immediately emerge as net buyers...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $6.065/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6125/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...

Designed Obsolescence; Infrastructure, Environment; Miscellany

Designed Obsolescence According to reports, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has called for a third-party audit of the organization’s staff t...

Designed Shortages

Global lumber demand is expanding at the same time wildfires and pests are destroying some forests and around the world countries are under pressure to pre...

PM Post - Ongoing Premium

THE OPEN July beans:  21 higher July meal:  4.90 higher July soyoil:  180 pts higher July corn:  6 higher July wheat:  7 3/4 highe...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Pakistan’s government has increased the wheat demand estimates for 2021 by 2 MMT to 29...

AM Outlook - Another Firm Day

GOOD MORNING, Prices trend higher on dryness in SA and cold weather extremes in the US.  When bull markets begin a break-out to the upside buying acti...

Technical Views - Continuing Trend

SPREADS July crush trades to 61.51c, while oilshare trades to 39.85%.   Spreads firm with Jul/Nov bean inverse strengthening up to 1.62 1/2c from...

Market Commentary: New Highs for New Crop Corn and Soy

Funds followed strong technical indicators in December corn and November soybeans and pushed those contracts to new highs on Monday. Old crop corn and soyb...

Climate Tightrope; Carbon Sinking; Revolutionary Approaches

Climate Tightrope President Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate kicks off late this week and his plan to commit to a 50 percent reduction (from 2005 le...

Farm Financing: Lower Demand for Loans

The rally in crop prices in MY 2020/2021 coupled with government issued COVID relief payments has reduced the demand for commercial farm loans. The Kansas...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.92/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.5375/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina  Argentina’s corn harvest is making slow progress with high soil moisture and high grain moisture preventing fieldwork. Farmers c...

Sustainability Measurements

There are several different metrics used to measure sustainability. Given the limited and depleting amount of fresh water sources, looking at the amount of...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe continues to struggle with drought with conditions especially concerning for the UK. Most of western and northern Europe has exp...

PM Post - Good Uptrends

THE OPEN May beans:  8 higher May meal:  2.20 higher May soyoil:  25 lower May corn:  8 higher May wheat:  1 3/4 higher The market...

Technical Views - Well Supported

SPREADS July crush trades to 61.80c/bu while oilshare trades to 39.85%.  Bean spreads continue firm with July/NOv trading up to 1.54c from 1.48 1/4c,...

AM Outlook - Lot of Moving Parts

GOOD MORNING, Overnight highlights included a rallying corn market and new contract highs in canola futures.  Dec. corn trades to new contract highs a...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Killing Meat; Migrant Labor’s Future

Killing Meat California will require 100 percent cage-free eggs next year and is now crafting a requirement that sows be given at least 24 square feet of l...

Progress on Hemp as Livestock and Poultry Feed

Two years ago last month, we posed the question, Does Hemp Have a Role in Livestock Feed?  Montana’s response to that question is, “yes.&r...

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.525/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...

Sustainability Measurements

By the rhetoric and adverse publicity, agriculture would appear to be failing when it comes to sustainability. But just as air and water quality have stati...

PM Post - Some Tops, Some Not

THE OPEN May beans:  6 1/2 higher May meal  .80 lower May soyoil:  85 higher May corn:  2 higher May weather:  5 higher The market...

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