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China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Live Hog Price Up Nearly 22 Percent According to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the first state procurement...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 June-2 July 2021 The domestic Russian grain market kept switching to the prices of 2021 yield, so prices decreased, especially dr...

PM Post - Good Beans, Bad Grains

THE OPEN November beans:  15 higher December meal:  4.40 higher December soyoil:  10 higher December corn:  9 lower December wheat:&nbs...

AM Outlook - Weather = Wide Ranges

Good Morning, Overnight prices featured a technical rebound in the soy complex while grains were slightly firmer.   Prices should begin to find s...

Technical Views - Large Sideways Chop

SPREADS August crush trades to 96.23c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.66%.  July/Dec corn inverse trades to 1.24 1/2c, while the Sep/Dec inverse trades...

Market Commentary: Midwest Rains Spark Limit-Down Move

The CBOT collapsed on Tuesday with corn locked limit-down shortly after the opening bell and soybeans flirting with limit-down moves all day. Wheat futures...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.4 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.26/bushel, down $0.2675 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Courts Deal Biofuels Another Blow – This Time on E15

The Courts have handed another blow to biofuel producers. On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration's EP...

Land Use and Impact

The EU’s provisional agreement last week on changes to the Common Agricultural Policy envisions farmers setting aside 3 percent of their arable land...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The Moroccan Government has increased its estimate of the grain crops as a result of very goo...

Will Fuels Celebrate Independence Day from COVID?

This weekend marks a major demand for transportation fuel of all sorts, from gasoline to jet fuel. This Fourth of July weekend is projected to be the bigge...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close...

Happy Fourth of July

Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published Monday, 5 July in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resume our normal rep...

Battle of Oilseeds

In the U.S. the battle for planting area is between corn and soybeans but in Europe it appears to be between rapeseed and soybeans. In recent years, the ar...

Market Commentary: Next Day Respite

Days like yesterday are always interesting but so was today’s market action in its own quirky way. The expectation was follow-through after some limi...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.89/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.655/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. ...

Potential Squeeze Between Feed Cost and Line Speeds

Yesterday’s USDA acreage report was decidedly less friendly to the outlook for livestock than it was to corn and soybeans as it not only provided no...

“Rut Ro” Trade; Selective “Encagement”; Small Wins

"Rut Ro" Trade In the animated television series Scooby-Doo from the early 1970’s, the talking dog star of the show called Scooby-Doo warned of dange...

PM Post - New Ranges to be Defined

THE OPEN Nov. beans:  14 higher Dec meal:  5.70 higher Dec soyoil:  125 pts higher Dec corn:  19 higher Dec wheat:  9 1/2 higher T...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 226,300 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022.   Corn:  Net sales of 15,000 MT f...

Technical Views - More Gains

SPREADS August crush trades to 1.07c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.92%.  August/Nov beans trades from 31c from a high of 40 3/4c inverse.  Sep/D...

AM Outlook - Time to Digest

GOOD MORNING, The USDA report sent prices sharply higher yesterday and the market will need a few days to digest the numbers.  Charts did a sharp U-tu...

Corporate Good; Import Controls Lose; Transatlantic Movement

Corporate Good Following the Great Financial Crisis and continuing with the far left “Squad” in the U.S. Congress, capitalism has been under at...

Fooling the Experts

Market analysts over-estimated planted acres ahead of the March Planting Intentions Report and they did it again ahead of the June Acreage Report. The mark...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.485/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&n...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Price Reverses Slide, Ticks Up 2.5 Percent The national average domestic hog price saw a solid recovery last week after 20 straight week...

PM Post - Guessing Wrong

THE OPEN November beans:  7 lower December meal:  2.20 higher December soyoil:  88 lower December corn:  12 1/2 lower December wheat:&n...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 June 2021 Harvesting was the main factor impacting the prices on the Russian grain market. Export milling wheat average price...

Ag Review - June 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the commodities boom, policies i...

AM Outlook - Lower on Acreage Expectations

GOOD MORNING, Today's price action will be guided by the June 30 Stocks/Acreage report.   Trading ranges are confirmed, and though the night trad...

Technical Views - Softer Ahead of Reports

SPREADS August crush trades to 1.13c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.54%.  Jul/Nov bean inverse sits at 46 1/4c to 49 3/4c, while August/Nov firms to 2...

Greening Agriculture; Going to the Office

Greening Agriculture Washington and Brussels share the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions but are taking two very different approaches when it comes...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.485/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&n...

A Closer Look at Drought and Cattle

Yesterday, Matt Herrington reported on the drought conditions in the west and High Plains. The western U.S. is at its worst drought conditions in 20 years,...

Beans Make Meat

The USDA/FAS attaché in Lagos says that Nigerian soybean production and consumption is back on the rise. Soybean consumption will rise 38 percent in...

PM Post - Evaporating Weather Premium

THE OPEN November beans:  4 higher December meal:  4.60 lower December soyoil:  180 pts higher December corn:  1 higher December wheat:...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Algeria is expected to receive a shipment of 28,000 MT of Russian wheat – the first in...

Technical Views - Only Meal Down

SPREADS August crush trades higher to 1.18c/bu while oilshare moves up to 47.35%.  Heading into first notice day, the July/Nov bean inverse falls to 4...

AM Outlook - Position Day

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with the major feature that of higher oilshare.  Soyoil futures are sharply higher against a falling meal market. ...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4725/bushel, up $0.28 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.515/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...

Biden Echoes Trump; Infrastructure and Industrial Policy

Biden Echoes Trump Anyone in Geneva expecting a softer, nicer U.S. following the defeat of Donald Trump found out otherwise this past week. Although there...

Value versus Value-added in Grapes

The EU is the largest maker of wine, followed by the U.S., whereas China may be the largest producer of table grapes but its production of wine in any quan...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomics Argentina’s macroeconomic situation is not good. The peso, Argentina’s currency (AR$), has been depreciating in recent days whil...

PM Post - Recovery Trade

THE OPEN beans:  14 higher meal:  .80 lower soyoil:  170 higher corn:  4 higher wheat:  10 higher The markets opened as called and...

Supreme Court and SREs: Next Steps

As Gary Blumenthal reported on Friday, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, overruled the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on the EPA&rsquo...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The latest weather forecasts predict above normal temperatures for nearly all of Europe (except France) and the Black Sea this week wit...

AM Outlook - Higher Grain and Oilshare

GOOD MORNING, The markets, with the exception of meal, are higher on a combination of pricing, short-covering, and perhaps a bit of bargain hunting heading...

Technical Views - Within Ranges

SPREADS August crush trades to 1.11c/bu while oilshare firmer to 36.28%.   The expiration of July options dials down open interest tallies. ...

Cattle on Feed

• U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 11.7 million head on June 1, 2021.This is the second highest June 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. • Pla...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Neutral Cattle on Feed Report

USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today, which was mostly in-line with expectations.  The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,0...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.365/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4075/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close...

Technical Views - Some Soft, Some Strong

SPREADS August crush trades to 1.04c/bu while oilshare is higher as soyoil surges again overnight, trading up to 47.53%.  July open interest continues...

AM Outlook - Wide Variables = Wide Ranges

GOOD MORNING, The markets turned around yesterday after ratcheting the trading range lower again on rain and expectations for a bearish June 30 Acreage/Sto...

Market Commentary: Rue the Day

The market remained on its relatively bearish trend today with managed funds selling while many fundamentalists believe they will just have to eventually b...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5325/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.52/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Facebook Science; AMLO’s Goal; Increasing Imports

Facebook Science It appeared at one point that the power of new genetic technologies to safely solve many problems would eclipse the influence of the anti-...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Price Surges, Missing Data, and the Market Outlook While monthly food prices have only recently seen an increase from where they were a year...

PM Post - Selling Yields Buying

THE OPEN Nov beans:  30 lower Dec meal:  5.90 lower Dec soyoil:  159 pts lower Dec corn:  14 3/4 lower Dec wheat:  12 1/4 lower Pr...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 374,100 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022.    Corn:  Net sales of 216,3...

AM Outlook - Downside Follow Through

GOOD MORNING, The markets are lower as funds continue to liquidate length on continuing rainfall events over the US.  July open interest liquidation a...

Technical Views - Lower Track

SPREADS August crush trades up to 1.04c/bu while oilshare trades up to 46.0%.   July/Nov bean spread inverse falls to 79 1/2c from 90c while Augu...

Consolidation’s Diminishing Returns

While countries like Brazil and Ukraine are trying to consolidate farmland in order to gain efficiencies, Australia has always had some of the largest farm...

Workers Unite; TPP Rebound; Protectionist Chips; War for Chips

Workers Unite U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai told union workers in Michigan that the Biden Administration wants workers to have a seat at the tabl...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.6425/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.6375/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

PM Post - Market Sees Better Crops

THE OPEN Beans:  Aug. up 1 and Nov down 3 Meal:   2.50 lower Soyoil:  60 pts higher Corn:  5 1/2 lower Wheat:  6 1/4 higher T...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 June 2021 The influence of the 2021 yield on the Russian market increased as harvesting progressed in the south of Russia. Tod...

June Cold Storage Report

U.S. red meat stocks continue to trend below year-ago levels with exceptional consumer and export demand tightening beef and pork supplies. Pork stocks inc...

AM Outlook - Soyoil Carries the Market

GOOD MORNING, The overnight price action featured another session of strong oilshare and soyoil price action.  Soyoil helped beans to find a bid, even...

Technical Views - Up and Down

SPREADS August crush trades to 98c/bu while oilshare trades up to 45.20%.  August/ Nov bean inverse trades from 47c up to 54 1/4c.  Sep/Dec meal...

Market Commentary: CBOT Slides on Midwest Rains; Corn Bull Spreads Persist

The CBOT ended Tuesday on a mixed note with rains forecast for the western Corn Belt pressuring markets. Corn futures saw continued bull spreading, however...

Carbon Credit Certification Program Likely to Pass Congress

Gary Blumenthal wrote yesterday about the trend toward carbon labels on food products. To facilitate that, the Senate is expected to vote this week on the...

Length of Commodities Boom

There are an increasing number of reports citing the potential for the recent jump in commodities prices to be more than just a short-term dynamic. Masayuk...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5975/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Volatility Ahead of Reports

THE OPEN August beans:  3 lower, Nov beans 8 lower August meal:  2.50 lower August soyoil:  17 lower Sep corn:  6 lower, Dec corn 7 low...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee has approved the importation of 3 MMT of whe...

AM Outlook - Mixed Continues

GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight were mixed as soyoil prices returned to weakness taking beans along for the ride.  Grains are mixed led by wheat to the...

Technical Vies - Breaks and Buys

SPREADS August crush trades to 90.84/cub while oilshare firms to 44.18% from values starting this week at 43.35%.  Inverses are firmer with August /No...

Waiting on the RVOs, EIA Forecast on Ethanol Blending

The market is still awaiting the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS. Rumors hit the market last week that the proposal was forthcomin...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire; Carbon Manipulation; Hard to Kill

Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire The most impactful part of last week’s G7 communique was not the blah, blah, blah about saving the world from the pandemic...

Backwards on TFP

While activists to Ukraine’s east decry Big Ag and romanticize about the superiority of small, inefficient farms, Kiev’s new law will enable th...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5925/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.615/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia is expected to ship 28,000 MT of wheat to Algeria this month, the first shipment of wheat since December 2016. Russia has been l...

PM Post - Bull Spreading and Short-Covering

THE OPEN Nov beans: 32 lower Dec meal:  5.50 lower Dec soyoil:  140 pts lower Dec corn:  21 1/2 lower Dec wheat:  14 1/2 lower Prices o...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Dry weather is helping reduce moisture in the corn crop and the harvest pace is slowly increasing. Last week, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported...

AM Outlook - Bulls Dampened

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower as a good amount of rain fell across portions of the Midwest recharging soil moisture.  The June 30 Stocks/Acreage repo...

Technical Views - Down the Range

SPREADS August crush trades to 92c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.03%.  July/Nov bean inverse trades from 83 3/4c to 93 3/4c.  Sep/Dec meal trade...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5525/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6275/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Communist Entrepreneurs; Catastrophes; Post-Pandemic Offices

Communist Entrepreneurs In capitalist societies, parents that are entrepreneurs tend to have children that also become entrepreneurs. Researchers in the U...

Plotting Dots to Fight Inflation

On 30 April , we reported about inflation, massive government spending, and the reopening economy. As we wrote: Alleviating supply chain bottlene...

Venezuelan “Opportunity”

Venezuelan strongman leader Nicolas Maduro told Bloomberg that he wants U.S. President Joe Biden to end the sanctions imposed by Donald Trump and to allow...

PM Post - Back Toward Higher Ranges

THE OPEN July beans: 55 higher July meal:  6.30 higher July soyoil:  130 pts higher July corn:  12 higher July wheat: 9 1/2 higher The marke...

AM Outlook - Post the Sell-Off

GOOD MORNING, The markets are higher after prices reached new monthly lows on a combination of pricing, short-covering, and new buying activity.  Comm...

Technical Views - Regaining Lost Ground

SPREADS August crush trades to 84c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.62%.  Jul/Nov bean inverse trades from 1.04 1/2c down to 75 3/4c.   Sep/De...

Market Commentary: Burning Down the House

There was red all over the board today with corn, soyoil, canola, and lean hogs all down the limit, and soybeans down close to the limit. It was downright...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.33/bushel, down $0.4 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.39/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 287,100 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022.  Increases primarily for Japan (95,100 MT,...

Communist S&D

During the late 1990’s and through the early 2000’s, Beijing consulted with a lot of western economists who guided the nation’s emergence...

PM Post - On the Defensive

THE OPEN July beans:  35 lower July meal:  2.30 lower July soyoil:  359 pts lower July corn:  19 lower July wheat:  8 3/4 lower Pr...

Technical Views - Pushing Lower

SPREADS August crush trades 85c/bu while oilshare trades lower to 43.31%.   Bean spreads are firmer with July/Nov trading to 1.12 1/2c from 1.05c...

AM Outlook - Buffeted by Rumors and Stories

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower again on technical considerations as beans trend lower following a still weaker soyoil market.  Funds were sellers of 1...

Market Commentary: Corn Refuses to Fall; Soybeans Refuse to Rally

Weather forecasts and changes thereto continue to drive the CBOT. Markets were initially weaker on overnight results from the GFS model that favored better...

Biofools Bull; Central American Band-Aid; Getting to Salazar

Biofools Bull Market economists hate government policy intrusions and the requirement to blend biofuels ranks among the most egregious but there is curiosi...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.73/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Falling Pig Prices Push Government to Consider Interventions The national average live pig price fell below RMB 15/kg ($2.35/kg) or RMB 6.80/lb...

PM Post - As Called, July Corn Supported

THE OPEN July beans: 1 lower July meal:  3.00 higher July soyoil:  99 lower July corn: 7 1/2 higher Dec wheat:  3 3/4 higher The markets own...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 June 2021 Russian domestic grain markets have heard the first trumpets of the new crop approach. However, bearish sentiments ar...

AM Outlook - Shorts, End-Users Lock in Profits

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed today with beans into new lows and soyoil weak, but grain prices firming.   Shorts and end-users are attempting to...

Some Lower, Some Higher

SPREADS August crush trades to 94c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.38%.  Jul/Nov bean inverse trades from 89c from 1.03c, while Sep/Dec meal carry trad...

Market Commentary: Cattle Rally While Hogs, CBOT Fall

The CBOT opened higher in an attempt to stabilize after succumbing to pressure from negative political news, technical weakness, and improving weather/supp...

RFS To Do List: Reduced RVO Coming?

On Friday we reported on the lobbying effort by merchant refiners – and more specifically their labor unions – to get a waiver from the RFS. Bu...

Transatlantic Agreements – Good and Bad

U.S. President Joe Biden has been busy in Europe this past week and the results are a mixed bag of tricks. Boeing-Airbus Dispute: The two sides will withdr...

Popular India Soy and Maize

The U.S. has complained that India has underreported to the WTO on its wheat and rice subsidies, which involve the largest crops receiving support. However...

PM Post - Firmness on Inverses

THE OPEN July beans: 2 higher July meal:  2.20 lower July soyoil:  50 higher July corn:  9 lower July wheat:  21 lower The markets open...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  According to recent reports, India will export about 400,000 MT of corn in June and July with...

AM Outlook - Testing Support

GOOD MORNING, Prices are attempting to stabilize after funds sold a decent amount of corn, beans, and soyoil on better chances for rainfall, negative polit...

Technical Views - All over the Board

SPREADS August oilshare is firmer again trading up to 46.29%.  Crush trades to 97c/bu.  Bull-spreads are firmer this morning.  Nov/July bean...

Supply Chain Situation; G7 Dreams; Job Killer

Supply Chain Situation; G7 Dreams; Job Killer Last week the Biden Administration issued partial results from analysis of critical supply chains under Presi...

Farmers’ Outlook on Land Values, Investments and Taxes

According to the May edition of the Purdue University Ag Barometer, farmers see farmland values remaining high and are likely to scale back on planned equi...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5925/bushel, down $0.2525 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.745/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close...

India’s Soy Outpaces

The head of India’s soybean processing trade association said that the nation’s soybean harvest area will expand by 10 percent this year. India...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3.7 percent last week, a slow pace that is keeping overall progress well below prior years. The speed has not...

PM Post - Not as Long as Before

THE OPEN July beans:  46 lower July meal:  9.50 lower July soyoil:  340 lower July corn:  26 lower July wheat:  21 lower Prices op...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe’s weather is trending warm and dry for the next two weeks but that is only likely to aid crop development after a cool sta...

AM Outlook - Weight on the Market

GOOD MORNING, Prices opened lower and continued the sell-off driven by soyoil's sharply lower price action, as talk circulates that the Biden administratio...

Technical Views - Lower Range

SPREADS August crush trades to 78c/bu while oilshare trades down to 45.23%.  Spreads are firmer with the July /Nov bean inverse trading up to 83 3/4c...

RINs and Repeat of RFS Waivers

When it comes to biofuels policy and the White House, it is the same song but in a different key. The Biden White House is caught between two political bas...

Hot Red Meat; Farming Profession

Hot Red Meat As American and European leaders are meeting there is yet another key transatlantic difference, but it needs no negotiation and that is meat...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.845/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.&nb...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

PM Post - Back and Forth

THE OPEN July beans:  10 lower July meal:  1.10 lower July soyoil:  230 pts lower  Julu corn:  9 lower July wheat:  7 1/2 low...

AM Outlook - Report Reverberates

GOOD MORNING, Prices started the night on a steady note but this morning will open lower.  Sharply lower soyoil futures are pressuring beans, and pric...

Technical Views - Retracement

SPREADS August crush trades to 79c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.43%.  Today is the last day of the Goldman Roll as July futures wind down.  Jul...

WASDE Soyoil

Soybean oil exports for 2020/21 are reduced 400 million pounds to 1.9 billion as high U.S. prices reduce competitiveness in the world market. Conversely, d...

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels because of a lower forecast domestic meal disappearance and higher soybean meal imports. ...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks.  Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21...

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. corn is for a modest reduction in beginning stocks because of ethanol and export demand.  The forecast season-av...

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for the new 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop is for higher production. All wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Note – First week of the New Crop year: Hence, Net sales of 325,900 MT for the 2021/2022 marketing year, which began June 1, were primar...

Market Commentary: That Was Fun

The markets started the day bullishly for corn and soybeans but with losses in wheat. Post the USDA WASDE report things changed. Larger soybean stocks flip...

Livestock Round Up: Labor and Cattle Markets

JBS is back in the news this week as the company made two announcements; first, that it would be adding 300,000 head of capacity at its Omaha and Grand Isl...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.99/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...

Transatlantic Reconciliation; Leash-less Dogs

Transatlantic Reconciliation The U.S. – EU consultations this week surrounding the China-focused G-7 meeting likely has the politicians ahead of some...

PM Post - Bean Bulls Must Focus on Bottom Line

THE OPEN July beans:  7 higher July meal: .70 higher July soyoil;  37 higher July corm:   6 higher July wheat:  7 lower The market...

AM Outlook - Weakness Gets Purchased

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed featuring higher soy and corn, lower wheat.   Could it be a foreshadowing of themes to come for the day?  The...

Technical Views - Recovery Trade

  SPREADS August crush trades to 87c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.0%.   The July/Nov bean inverse falls to new lows of 1.12 1/2c from 1.15...

Bipartisan Enemy; Unifying the West; Actions and Solutions

Bipartisan Enemy U.S. Congressional Democrats and Republicans cannot agree on an infrastructure investment package but when it comes to competing with Chin...

Hunger Saves the Earth

The UN’s Global Goals for Sustainable Development are largely being written by NGO’s from rich countries, which is making some of the world&rsq...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Up in May, First Time Since January  With live hog and retail pork prices nosediving, food inflation remained in negativ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 31 May-4 June 2021 The Russian domestic grain market showed chaotic movement due to many factors both domestic and export oriented...

PM Post - Position Leveling

THE OPEN July beans: 8 lower July meal:  2.50 lower July soyoil:  54 lower July corn:  3 lower July wheat:  10 1/4 lower Prices opened...

Technical Views - Drop

SPREADS August crush trades up to 84c/bu while oilshare prices trades to 46.89%. Spreads are firmer with Jul/Nov bean inverse strengthening up to 1.28 1/4c...

AM Outlook - Positioning Ahead of the Report

GOOD MORNING, Prices opened a touch softer as positioning in front of Thursday's report takes place and the spreads continue to bounce around as Day 3 of t...

Market Commentary: CBOT Firms in Consolidative, Pre-WASDE Trade

Monday evening’s crop conditions supported CBOT trade on Tuesday, and the market opened higher overnight and added gains from there. Wheat was an ear...

Dangerous Jobs; Scale Confusion; Geopolitical Pushback

Dangerous Jobs French President Emmanuel Macron was reportedly slapped in the face by a disgruntled citizen near the city of Valence. That makes the job of...

Policy Potpourri: Resiliency, Climate and Cyber Security

Food Chain Resiliency and Meat Industry. USDA announced today that it would spend $4 billion to “strengthen critical supply chains” and in the...

Flour History

U.S. flour exports were down slightly for the first quarter of the year, but that is generally par for the industry. Turkey produces one-third the volume o...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.8/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.85/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Jul...

PM Post - Higher; Roll Affects Volume

THE OPEN July beans:  9 higher July meal:  2.00 higher July soyoil:  94 higher July corn:  1 higher July wheat:   5 3/4 highe...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Tunisia’s government expects the grain crop this year will be 1.07 MMT of durum wheat,...

AM Outlook - Quality and Weather Support

GOOD MORNING, Trade opens into positive territory to start the PM session, with conditions poorer than expected and hot and dry forecasts continuing in are...

Technical Views - Good Support

SPREADS August crush trades to 81c/bu while oilshare trades at 46.76%.  July/Nov bean spreads firms off lows of 1.17 1/4c, with an inverse high at 1.2...

Short OJ Break

Reports indicated that the global pandemic caused a resurgence in the consumption of orange juice under the belief that its high vitamin C content strength...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.7925/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Quandary Agriculture Policy

Background: EU politicians are challenged finding compromises on CAP reform that concurrently meet the objectives of the Farm to Fork and Green Deal. There...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is moving faster now that the soybean harvest is nearing its end. Over the past two weeks, farmers harvested 7 percent...

PM Post - Breaks But Well Supported

THE OPEN July beans:  24 higher July meal:  4.50 higher July soyoil: 120 pts higher July corn:  14 higher July wheat:  6 higher The mar...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe’s weather is trending pleasantly warmer after a cool start to the growing season. Temperatures will be above normal for mo...

Technical Views - Up and Up

SPREADS August crush trades to 86.98c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.44%.   The official index roll begins today and spreads are weaker.  Ju...

AM Outlook - Factors Playing

GOOD MORNING, The markets are higher across the board, with soyoil futures into new ctr highs.  Hot and dry weather forecasts verify, sending prices s...

Market Commentary: Hot Weather Leads to Hot Markets

The CBOT finished the week on a high note with funds and speculative traders buying heading into a weekend that is forecast to be hot and dry for the U.S...

Ag Market Perspective on May Jobs Report

The May jobs data came out; there was an increase in private payrolls of 559,000 jobs. At any other time, other than post COVID era, that would be bullish...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.2075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8775/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Line Speed Hogwash; Switching Capitalist Shoes; Farm Economy

Line Speed Hogwash The United Food and Commercial Workers Union achieved their goal of obtaining the Biden Administration’s support for a federal dis...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales reductions of 33,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. C...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

PM Post - Heated Markets

THE OPEN July beans:  21 higher July meal:  3.40 higher July soyoil:  120 pts higher July corn:  13 1/2 higher July wheat:  8 1/2...

AM Outlook - Weather Induced Choppiness

GOOD MORNING,  Prices started the PM session in the plus column after breaking down from a higher start yesterday.  Each different weather predic...

Technical Views - Uptracing

SPREADS August crush trades to 78c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.60%.  July/Nov bean inverse drops to 1.43c from 1.49 1/4c, and from highs that were...

Market Commentary: Check Swing

Excellent early crop ratings but excessive dryness, then a chance of showers that may or may not occur – the one certainty is uncertainty and today&r...

Livestock Round Up: Meat Packing Recovery Underway

The cyber attack on JBS sent a shock through the markets, but JBS was already re-opening plants on Wednesday. Today’s estimated slaughter was back up...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.62/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.7625/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Punish the People; Chump Trade Policy; Careful with Farmers

Punish the People Like consumers elsewhere in the world, Indians are now paying about double for vegetable oil what they paid a year ago. This is a bargain...

PM Post - Choppy Back and Forth

THE OPEN July beans:  20 higher July meal:  1.40 higher July soyoil: 84 higher July corn 7 higher July weather:  6 higher The markets opened...

AM Outlook - Strong Open, Highs Tested

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher overnight as funds return as buyers on hot and dry weather conditions and bullish technicals.   In the lead are s...

Technical Views - Soyoil Continues to Lead

SPREADS August crush trades higher to 45.94% while crush trades to 81c/bu.  Spreads are softer in corn, with July/Dec trading down to 1.00 3/4c invers...

Industry Resilience; Failed Extortion; Downstate Ignored

Industry Resilience When COVID hit and food supply chains were disrupted by the shift to consuming food at home instead of from institutional providers, cr...

Eggs versus People

Among the animal proteins, only milk has lower GHG emissions than poultry eggs. This is because in a sense, they are both renewable farm products. A cow pr...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.75/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.875/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Live Hog Market Face Uncertainties, Nears Breakeven Point According to the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs’ (MARA)...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 24-28 May 2021 The Russian domestic grain market reacted to the introduction of the new “floating” export duty effective...

PM Post - Trading Weather

THE OPEN July beans:  11 higher July meal:  stray July soyoil:  140 pts higher July corn:  1 lower July wheat:  2 3/4 higher Big s...

Technical Views - Mostly Sideways Higher

SPREADS August oilshare trades to 44.82% while crush trades up to 82c/bu.   Jly/Nov bean inverse reached a six-week low trading down to 1.45 1/2c...

AM Outlook - Mixed Influences = Mixed Markets

GOOD MORNING, Precise are mixed overnight with a better condition rating for corn creating a minor pullback at the start of the PM session.  Beans con...

Update on Cyber Attack on Meat

This morning we posted an alert on the cyber-attack on JBS IT infrastructure in North America and Australia. The attack happened over the weekend and the c...

Trilogue Pain is Palpable

The marathon trilogue negotiations between the European Commission, European Parliament, and the European Council failed to achieve agreement on revisions...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.8875/bushel, up $0.32 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.935/bushel, up $0.3 from yesterday's close.  Ju...

COOL Report

The requirement in the U.S. for country-of-origin labeling became effective in 2008 and by 2015 legislators were writing its repeal. The way it had been de...

PM Post - Highs/Lows Are In

THE OPEN July beans: 27 higher July meal:  5.40 higher July soyoil;  97 higher July corn:  20 3/4 higher July wheat:  18 1/2 higher The...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Grain importers in the region were very interested in Russia’s announcement of its new...

Cyber Security: New Commodity Market Risk?

Just three weeks after the Colonial Pipeline that supplies about 45 percent of the gasoline to the U.S. East Coast was hit by cyber hackers, the largest me...

Technical Views - Readjustment

SPREADS August crush trades at 74.58c/bu while oilshare is 44.12%.  Jly/Nov bean inverse drops to 1.53 3/4c from 1.58 3/4c as traders will have to beg...

AM Outlook - Rebound

GOOD MORNING, As we move into the month of June, traders will continue to watch weather and demand.  Prices regrouped last week after dropping to mont...

Memorial Day Holiday

Monday, 31 May is a U.S. holiday, and the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 1...

Fast Reversal; Green Test Case; Teaspoon of Sugar

Fast Reversal On Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai told Reuters that, “It’s impossible to predict the organic development of a...

$6 Trillion Budget Unveiled

The White House released the President’s Budget today; it is a $6 trillion dollar package that picks up where the COVID pandemic relief spending left...

Climate Ghosts

Mexico’s Deputy Central Bank Governor Irene Espinosa is doing what many other politicians do when they want innocence from a problem – blame gl...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

No Technical Perspectives Today

Due to the Memorial Day holiday, there will be no Technical Perspectives reports today. The next reports will be on Tuesday, 1 June 2021...

Market Commentary: Thirsty Thursday

Markets do not often hit their daily trading limit, but corn got there today and there were mostly bulls across the complex. The trade had driven prices do...

Livestock Round Up: Where’s the Beef? Argentina Bans Exports

The U.S. beef cutout is still at elevated levels and cattle prices are in the doldrums as capacity and labor issues create a kink in the value chain. Botto...

Ag Review - May 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine issues surrounding market demand...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.645/bushel, up $0.4 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.7625/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. ...

Bipolar World Returns; Transatlantic Speech Divide

Bipolar World Returns Russia and China have been presenting a united front to the West, but the West has not been reciprocating, until now. President Biden...

PM Post - Stronger than Expected

THE OPEN July beans: 2 higher July meal: 2.00 higher July soyoil:  35 higher July corn:  8 higher July wheat:  10 higher The markets opened...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 29,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 76 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average.&n...

AM Outlook - Corn Export Driver

GOOD MORNING,  Prices were mixed with the grains firmer vs. the soy complex, but after export sales all rallied into the close.  For bulls, the g...

Technical Views - Better Supported

SPREADS August crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 44.51%.  July/Nov beans traded down to .52 1/4c inverse from 1.59c.  July/Dec meal...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.245/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.485/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...

Antitrust Dust; GMO Spin; Inflation-Catastrophes

Antitrust Dust European antitrust officials have been busy, and their latest target is a large but declining giant called Coca Cola. The investigation migh...

China In-Country Analysis

Pandemic Growing Uncertainty Over COVID-19’s Origin Deepens Rift Despite the hot start for U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2021, Beijing’...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 May 2021 Russian domestic grain markets did not see any major price shifts, and although the market continued to show bullish...

PM Post - The Close

THE OPEN July beans:  5 lower July meal: 3.00 lower July soyoil:  29 lower July corn:  3 lower July wheat:  10 lower The markets opened...

Technical Views - Pressure Remains Downward

SPREADS August crush trades to 77c/bu while oilshare trades to 44.83%.  Bean bull spreads are firmer with Jly/Nov trading up to 1.69c from 1.61c. ...

AM Outlook - Weekend Exit

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to establish lower trading ranges with soyoil once again the leader to the upside.  It is typical that markets will foll...

Climate Strategy: “USDA Setting Clear Price Signals”

On 16 November, after the election, we reported on the transition memo for USDA to provide “recommendations that can help the President hit the groun...

Market Commentary: Funds Pummel CBOT; Market Weakness Confirms Tops Were Made

The CBOT fell sharply (except for soyoil, which seems to be living in its own little world) with funds quickly and aggressively liquidating long positions,...

That is Nutty Policy

The U.S. Commerce Department is doubling the tariff on softwood lumber imported from Canada to 18.32 percent. The hike is coming at a time of record lumber...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.2025/bushel, down $0.37 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.565/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&n...

PM Post - Everyone Out

THE OPEN: July beans: 8 higher July meal: 1.40 lower July soyoil: 75 higher July corn: 3 1/2 lower July wheat: 2 higher The markets opened as called but...

That’s Nuts

When it comes to almonds, the U.S. is the world’s largest producer by far. It produces over 80 percent of the world’s almond crop. However, whe...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The owners of the container ship that blocked the Suez Canal – Ever Given – are c...

Technical Views - CBOT Trying to Find Lows

NOTE: Technical Perspectives from WPI will not be published Friday, May 28, 2021. SPREADS August crush trades at 75c/bu while oilshare declines t...

AM Outlook - Soy Complex Gains on Grains

NOTE: Technical Perspectives from WPI will not be published on May 28, 2021. Good morning -  Prices traded higher overnight led by soyoil, w...

Market Commentary: CBOT Starts the Week Lower; End-Users Buy the Break

The CBOT started the week on a weaker note with funds taking a more defensive position after last week’s selloff. Nearly all CBOT contracts were lowe...

Productivity Impacts; Classic Policy Divides

Productivity Impacts The Kansas City Federal Reserve kicked off its annual conference on agriculture with this year’s topic seemingly a little tin ea...

Uncertain Values

British farmers are upset that their government may give access to the UK market to beef from Australia. They argue that they are not competitive against t...

2021 and 2022 RVOs Could be Kept at 2020 Levels

The EPA is floating a trial balloon of maintaining the 2020 RVOs for 2021 and 2022. In April, a group of Senators urged EPA to add 500 million gallons to t...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5725/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6225/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina  Argentina’s corn harvest is progressing slowly but gaining speed. Harvest gained 3 percent last week, bringing the total to 27.6...

PM Post - Weight of Benign Weather

NOTE: LCF will be closed May 28.   THE OPEN July beans:  7 3/4 lower July  meal:  2.30 lower Juy soyoil:  45 lower Jul corn: ...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s 1 May grain stocks totaled 9.5 MMT in 2021, up 0.18 MMT from the same period in 2020. Notably, wheat stocks were up 8 p...

Technical Views - Sell on Rallies

SPREADS August crush atrades to 79.80c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.60%.  July/Nov bean inverse firms from its lows of 1.63 1/4c to trades up to 1.7...

AM Outlook - Possible Stabilization This Week

GOOD MORNING, Prices were lower overnight as a combination of good weather and poor technical closes created more fund long liquidation.  The trend co...

Cattle on Feed

1. United States Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent  2. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of...

Contrasting Climate Approaches

While the EU is developing a command-and-control approach toward making farming more climate friendly, the newly announced Biden Administration approach is...

Cattle on Feed: May 2021 Tighter than May 2019

USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today. The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 11.7 million head, 105 percent...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.595/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.7425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Reliability versus Value in Beef

Argentina’s restriction on beef exports to control domestic inflation and political upheaval could raise issues over reliability as a supplier. Howev...

PM Post - Liquidating Length

THE OPEN July beans:  12 lower July meal:  2.20 lower July soyoil:  89 lower July corn:  8 lower July wheat:  6-7 lower The market...

Technical Views - Down She Goes

SPREADS August crush trades to 81c/bu while oil share trades to 43.51%.  Bean inverses are weaker with July/Nov trading down to 1.60c from 1.65 3/4.&n...

AM Outlook - Taking Profits

GOOD MORNING, Prices started mixed overnight, but mostly on the defensive led by beans and soyoil futures. This morning we are seeing another round of end-...

Market Commentary: Recognizing the Top

Some say it is hard to know the top of a market, but the funds think they’ve seen it and this Friday’s Commitment of Traders report is likely t...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 May 103...

PM Post - Grains Firmer; Oilseeds Weaker

THE OPEN July beans:  1 3/4 lower July meal:  2.00 higher July soyoil:  1.40 lower July corn:  3 higher July wheat:  1/4 lower Pri...

Export Sales

Exporters for the period May 7-May 13, 2021. Wheat:  Net sales of 121,000 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and...

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