Global Trade Debacle The global trading environment has returned this week to a negative trend where policies are likely to get worse long before they get...
Articles
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with funds unwinding spreads, sending corn higher versus wheat while the soy complex was steady. Mid-day trade featured a defensive tone af...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8125/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.2525/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.&n...
Do Oil and Ethanol Finally Agree on Something?
For the past 2 years the ethanol industry has hounded EPA about its use of small refinery exemptions (SREs), calling the increase in exempted volumes in re...
PM Post - Searching for the Bottom
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 3/4 higher Jan meal: 1.00 higher Jan soyoil: 3 higher March corn: 1 lower March wheat: 3 higher Prices...
Doubt About China’s Pork Renaissance
The Chinese government says it wants to restore domestic pork production to its prior glory, but history sheds doubt on its prospects. As noted previously,...
Technical Views - Testing Bottoms
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.03c/bu while oilshare moves to 33.85%. March/May beans trades into contract lows of 15 1/2c, which is 66% of fu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s purchases of farmlands in Australia is causing considerable national concern. Acco...
AM Outlook - Its Complicated
GOOD MORNING, The major trends are shifting a bit, as traders continue to buy grains/sell soy, the opposite of the trend over the last several months. ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8225/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
EU Collision Course; WTO Developments
EU Collision Course EU environmental policy is on a collision course with agriculture and European farmers have begun to respond. Last week they held large...
Market Commentary
The CBOT featured early firming in the grains complex with nothing but lower prices for the soy complex. Early buy corn/sell soybeans spread trade set the...
Energy and Ethanol Outlook
Energy markets mostly bounced back today after a Black Friday shortened trading session where energy futures dipped across the board. On Friday, crude oil...
Smart Buyers
The San Francisco Chronicle makes note that Italy greatly boosted its durum wheat imports from North America following a 10 percent reduction in Europe&rsq...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Taxes Despite the fact Argentina’s new government hasn’t made an official declaration, there are rumors flying about the new export taxes that...
PM Post - And the Beating Goes On
THE OPEN Jan beans: 3 higher Jan meal: .70 higher Jan soyoil; 8 higher March corn: 1 higher March wheat: 1 higher Grain...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Russia’s Agricultural Ministry last week outlined a strategy to increase the country’s agricultural exports to $45 billion by 203...
Technical Views - Mostly Higher
SPREADS March crush trades to 99c/bu while oilshare firms back over 34% to 34.15% on meal's slide against a sideways soyoil trade. Jan/March beans tr...
AM Outlook - New Month, New Money
GOOD MORNING, It's the start of a new month with new money flows. The commitment-of-trader's report will be released today due to the holiday. ...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 612,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 60 percent from the prior 4-week average.&...
Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey
Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.8125/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.4175/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary
Post-Thanksgiving Day trade at the CBOT/CME featured the expected light volume but some unexpected fund buying in grains. The first notice day for December...
Drought Doesn't Discriminate
Drought Doesn’t Discriminate Despite the frequent battle with drought faced by its farmers, South Africa has rejected adoption of a drought-tolerant...
Hemp: Racing to the Bottom
Rarely has a new commodity provided such interest and optimism as hemp, but as the regulatory framework slowly catches up to the market’s hopefulness...
COMMON THREAD: Slow Dancing With China
Yesterday, 28 November, was Thanksgiving Day in the U.S., a holiday tradition that dates back to the arrival in the New World of a group of settlers seekin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6275/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary
The CBOT finished the overnight session on a high note with corn, soybeans, and wheat all in positive territory. Oversold conditions and short covering sup...
USMCA Reckoning; Make My Brown Eyes Green; Not Such Free Traders
USMCA Reckoning USTR Robert Lighthizer and his Canadian and Mexican counterparts are meeting today to discuss the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Lighthizer...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices grew slightly, and corn prices also started growing after a long period of decreas...
Duty Free Pork Impact
U.S. pork producers are asking for zero duty access into the Chinese market, saying it would reduce the trade deficit by 6 percent. Without doubt, U.S. por...
PM Post - Sideways Leads to Lower
Note: There will be no Technical Perspectives report tomorrow and Friday, 28-29 November. The next edition will be on Monday, 2 December. THE OPEN Jan bean...
China In-Country Analysis
Finance China’s Ag Development Bank Working to Keep Farms Afloat Last week Dims Sums Blogspot reported on a series of announcements and articles rela...
Technical Views - Firmer Day Against a Lower Trend
SPREADS March crush margins still remain good at 1.00c/bu, while oilshare begins to firm off its corrective phase at 33.86%. Dec/March corn trades ba...
Happy Thanksgiving
There will be no Ag Perspectives or Technical Perspectives reports on Thursday (28 November) in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States...
AM Outlook - Time for Recovery Today
GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer this morning on oversold conditions and short-covering heading into the Thanksgiving closure on Thursday. The deliver...
Ag Review - November 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. There are articles covering the next farm bill, the future...
Market Commentary
Trading in Chicago was largely a one-sided affair today with cattle futures being the only market to sustain any significant closes. The aggressive fund se...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.675/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
More Cars Approved for E15, but Trend is Toward Fewer Cars
E15-approved vehicles are increasing, while E15-capable flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) are decreasing according to a recent study by the Renewable Fuels Associa...
China Realism; Irrepressible on S&DT; Interventions/December Outlook
China Realism The markets are justifiably tuning out all the headlines over U.S. – China trade negotiations. Craig Allen, President of the U.S. China...
Scale and Sustainability
Sustainability has become an important attribute for agricultural systems with many activists falsely asserting that extensive farming has a smaller enviro...
PM Post - Fundamentals Prevail
THE OPEN Jan beans: 3 1/2 lower Jan soyoil: 19 lower Jan meal: .70 lower March corn: 1 lower March wheat: 3 1/2 lower The mar...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un has received a Euro 6 million loan jointly from the Industrial Bank of T...
Technical Views - Transparent
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.00c/bu while oilshare trades down to 33.55%. Jan/March beans remains weak trading out to 14 1/2c from 14 1/4c.&...
AM Outlook - Looking Lower
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trade on a mixed note, with bean prices mostly responding to good growing weather in Brazil and Argentina, which assures 2...
WIC to SNAP Lessons; Cheese Mountains; Spillover Subsidies
WIC to SNAP Lessons According to data published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in its weekly Morbidity and Mortality Report, obesit...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. J...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened higher based on short position liquidation and some short-covering in corn and wheat. As the day wore on, however, the soy complex turned l...
Commodity Investing
Goldman Sachs forecasts that its commodity index will earn 6 percent over the coming 12-month period. That may be a welcome prediction, or one brushed off...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics There were no major announcements last week regarding policies or national economics and forex rates and stock indices were steady. The inco...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission’s latest crop update highlights the divergent but consistently challenging conditions faced by European farmers this...
PM Post - Housecleaning
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 1/4 higher Jan meal: .90 higher Jan soyoil: 39 lower March corn: 1 1/2 higher March wheat: 5 3/4 higher The m...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report Friday. The 1 November inventory of all cattle and calves on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more...
Technical Views - Testing Both Sides of Even
SPREADS March crush trades to 99c/bu while oilshare trades below 34% to 33.86%. Dec/March corn moves into 9 1/2c from 10c, while Dec/March whea...
AM Outlook - Firmer with a Twist
GOOD MORNING, Prices are starting the session on a firmer note led by wheat. The trade continues to monitor the pace of South American bean and corn...
Awkwardness on Hong Kong; Gottlieb’s Successor
Awkwardness on Hong Kong President Trump says he will sign or veto legislation (the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act) approved near unanimously by...
Cold Storage Report Features More Pork, Poultry
The latest Cold Storage report from USDA (which features commodity stocks as of 31 October 2019) shows growing supplies of pork and chicken and a modest ti...
Market Commentary
Spread trade was the biggest feature of the day with traders rolling out of December contracts and into deferred contracts. December options expired this a...
Cattle on Feed
• USDA Estimates: U.S. Cattle on Feed were up 1 percent on November 1, 2019. • Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.48 million h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&nb...
BSE versus ASF
Reports out of China indicate that the ASF situation may be stabilizing. Stocks of breeding sows rose 0.6 percent last month, the first increase in 19 mont...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthco...
PM Post - Expirations and Rolls
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1/4 lower Jan meal: .40 lower Jan soyoil: 25 higher March corn: 1 lower March wheat: 2 higher The markets...
Technical Views - Lows Begetting New Lows
SPREADS Crush margins continue to firm with March trading to 1.02c/bu. Oilshare trades back up to 34.0%. Jan/March beans trade to ctr lows at 1...
AM Outlook - Caution About Oilshare
GOOD MORNING, Funds continue to make adjustments into the end of the month and into the Thanksgiving holiday. Volumes are going to probably dwindle f...
U.S. – China Chasm; USMCA Falters; Health versus Sustainability
U.S.-China Chasm The signals out of Beijing and Washington are confusing on the surface but that is only because of how deep the fissures are when it comes...
Market Commentary
Solid export sales, especially for pork, and higher basis in South America is bullish for U.S. futures. So should be the fact that 17 percent of the corn c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.685/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.09/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Round Up
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of c...
PM Post - Position-evening for Profit
THE OPEN Jan beans: up 3 3/4 Dec meal: up 1.50 Dec soyoil: down 18 Dec corn: up 1 1/4 Dec wheat; up 3 1/2 Prices opened as called with ma...
Oilseed Highlights: Egypt's Soybean Production, DDGS Exports to Australia and New Zealand
Egypt Wants to Double Soybean Production The government of Egypt has announced its plan to more than double its production of soybeans to reduce its depend...
Technical Views - Its about Spreads
SPREADS Major trends include higher oilshare and crush, and heavy volumes in Dec spreads. Yesterday, the Dec/March corn spread accounted for about 70...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 437,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 83 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. C...
AM Outlook - Technical Defense
GOOD MORNING, Price action remains extremely technical and on the defensive over disappointing ideas that the trade war may extend into 2020. The US...
A Faint Light from Golden Rice
As someone who has for many years pursued a deep interest in the business and economics of agriculture and food, one of the greatest frustrations and disap...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6675/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened as called in today’s Technical Perspectives with the soy complex moving higher and corn and wheat lower. The trend changed by mid-day...
Alignments Against Phase One; Coal Fired Electric Cars; Market Openings
Alignments Against Phase One The markets reacted today to negative news about the state of the U.S. – China trade war. Craig Allen, President of U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) grew slightly. Corn prices fluctuated insignificantly. Milling wh...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy Trump Administration Again Threatens Tariffs, Phase One Deal Stalls The optimistic prospects for an end to the tit-for-tat trade war that commenced...
PM Post - Technical Day Turns Negative
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 higher Dec meal: .10 higher Dec soyoil: 28 higher Dec corn: 2 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1 1/4 lower The market ope...
Current Market Offers High Returns to Cattle Feeding
Feeder cattle prices have room for additional price gains, based on cattle feeding margins. WPI’s research suggests that feedlots placing cattle on f...
Technical Views - Good Market Direction Day
SPREADS Jan crush trades up to 1.01c/bu while oilshare firms to 34% on soyoil strength. Dec/March corn trades out to 11c from 10 1/2c, and from...
AM Outlook - Oversold
GOOD MORNING, Prices rallied yesterday on oversold technicals, and a bit of a shift in the fundamental outlook as US corn is finally becoming more competit...
Market Commentary
The CBOT and U.S. equity markets switched roles today with ag commodities generally finding solid gains while stocks retreated from recent highs. Market ch...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.12/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. J...
GMO versus GHG; State versus Commercial
GMO versus GHG Vietnam has delayed its decision to ban glyphosate into 2021 but Thailand has maintained its ban, which is adversely impacting U.S. commodit...
Milk and Meat Alternatives and the Constitution
For the past two-and-a-half years, there has been a heated policy debate about plant-based dairy alternatives such as soymilk and yogurt and meat alternati...
PM Post: Weather, Currencies, Politics
THE OPEN Jan beans: 3 1/2 higher Dec meal: .70 higher Dec soyoil: 33 higher Dec corn: 1 1/4 higher Dec wheat: steady Prices t...
Trouble Targeting
USDA has targeted select foreign markets for increased attention this year, including sending trade missions to solicit sales. The success to date has been...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS It looks to be good news for grain importers as most experts in the ocean freight business are expectin...
Technical Views - Challenging the Edges
SPREADS Jan crush trades to 98c/bu while oilshare firms again to 33.79%. Dec/March volumes increase as we approach first notice day at the end...
AM Outlook - Need to Cover for Any Trade Developments
GOOD MORNING, Prices begin on a firmer note this morning but not very far away from yesterday's lows. The trend continues to be lower for grain...
Market Commentary
Trading at the CBOT was dominated by selling in corn and soybeans, with some support in the wheat complex, though much of that was likely the result of cor...
Food Inflation Importance; U.S. Funding Deadline; New Approach to PRC
Food Inflation Importance Researchers from Boston College, UC-Berkley and the University of Chicago found (see NBER Working Paper No. 26237) that consumers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6775/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat At the start of the wheat campaign, everything was set for a bumper crop. Good prices, good soil moisture, and high investment in inputs (fertilizer,...
China’s Dinner Demographics
China’s food security concerns and import needs will shift in the years ahead regardless of the outcome of the trade war with the U.S. Demograp...
PM Post - Lower but Chicago Wheat is Interesting
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 3/4 lower Dec meal: 1.40 lower Dec soyoil: 9 higher Dec corn: steady Dec wheat: 3 1/4 lower The markets...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Egypt’s GASC purchased 465,000 MT of wheat last week, marking their biggest procurement effort of the marketing year. Ukraine provided...
Technical Views - Weaker Start
SPREADS Jan crush trades at 99c/bu while oilshare trades down to 33.16%. Dec/March corn trades out to 9 3/4c from 9 1/4c while Dec 19/Dec 20 tr...
AM Outlook - Seasonal Volume Decline
GOOD MORNING, As we edge closer to Thanksgiving, volumes are declining. The features for last week continued overnight with a further break to new lo...
SOE Reform, Maybe; BRICS Hypocrisy
SOE Reform, Maybe The Trump Administration has been decrying the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) in China’s economy and now that n...
Market Commentary
Spread activity was the main CBOT driver today, with traders initially buying soybeans and selling wheat and corn. Long soymeal/short soyoil trading was no...
Appropriations Moving, Everything Else in Impeachment Limbo
The respective chairs of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, Representative Nita Lowey (D-New York) and Senator Richard Shelby (R-Alabama) have...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&n...
Chicken for China
Per Dave Juday’s recent Livestock Roundup report, China has ample opportunity to replace its lost pork production with imports of pork or chicken mea...
PM Post - And the Beat Goes on
THE OPEN Jan beans: 3 higher Dec meal: 2.10 higher Dec soyoil: 5 lower Dec corn: 1/4 lower Dec wheat: 1 3/4 lower Prices opened as expected wit...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 238,600 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 34 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...
Technical Views - Testing from Above and Below
SPREADS Jan crush trades lower at 94c/bu while oilshare trades down to 33.41%. Dec/March corn trades out to 9 1/4c from 8 3/4c while Dec 19/Dec...
AM Outlook - Challenging Bottoms
GOOD MORNING, In terms of political news, all remains quiet on trade negotiations but after the close yesterday, House Speaker Pelosi said the US was on tr...
Game of Chicken; Hard and Fast Numbers; Glyphosate Addiction
Game of Chicken U.S. officials were celebrating China’s announcement that after half a dozen years of bogus excuses for keeping out American poultry,...
Livestock Round Up
China Opens to Chicken On 31 October, we reported that its was expected that broilers would be included in any U.S. China trade deal, and although that dea...
Market Commentary
After a week of rolling, November contracts expired today and liquidation begins in the December contract. Otherwise, the market remains caught in sideways...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7575/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights: Increased Brazilian Soymeal Exports, U.S. Domestic Soymeal Demand
U.S. Soymeal Exports to Face More Competition from Brazil The U.S. has faced aggressive competition in exporting soymeal from Brazil and Argentina for at l...
PM Post - Path of Least Resistance
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 lower Dec meal: .40 lower Dec soyoil: 3 lower Dec corn: 3/4 higher Dec wheat: 1 1/4 lower The markets opened...
Technical Views - Direction is Weak
SPREADS Jan crush trades up to 96.65c/bu while oilshare works down to 33.45%. Dec/March corn spread remains firm at 8 1/2c from 8 3/4c, while D...
AM Outlook - Spreads Still Dominate
GOOD MORNING, Prices are steady grains and lower soy. Spread trade continues to dominate in terms of price action. Traders continue to unwind p...
Markets Looking for Direction
The November WASDE has come and gone, and it produced precious little excitement for grain and soy futures markets. NASS/USDA lowered the estimated nationa...
Expanded Trade War Tools; Olive Dynamics
Expanded Trade War Tools The Trump Administration expanded its areas of attack on the WTO, bringing in questions about procedures and allocation of resourc...
Market Commentary
A lack of follow-through buying in wheat during the overnight session created a weaker open at the CBOT today. Soyoil led the soy complex lower while corn...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.09/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Sorghum’s Row
Sorghum was once the darling crop to grow because it was cheaper to produce than corn and environmentally friendly since it required less water. U.S. farme...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Inflation for October Spikes to 15.5 Percent With retail pork prices rising in October by a staggering 101.3 percent, China’s foo...
PM Post - Sinking Volatility; Lower Price Action
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 lower Dec soyoil: 31 lower Dec meal: .50 lower Dec corn: 1 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 3 3/4 lower The market...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) continued to grow but the rate of growth slowed. Corn prices slight...
Technical Views - Two-sided Trade
SPREADS Jan crush trades to 95c/bu while oilshare continues to adjust lower trading down to 33.78%. Feature of the morning are spreads, which are wea...
AM Outlook - Shorts the Focus
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed overnight but continue to find liquidation in the soy complex led by soyoil, while wheat is giving up most of its short-cove...
China versus USMCA; Global MRL’s
China versus USMCA The U.S. Congressional calendar is tight and Trump trade negotiators only have so much band width. This is leading some in the Washingto...
Cold Weather, But Natural Gas at Near Record Inventories
Last week we reported on the backlog of propane deliveries across the Corn Belt and noted that farmers who have the capability to use natural gas have a re...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were largely firmer today with grains leading the way higher. Wheat futures posted double-digit gains as severe cold will cover the winter whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7775/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.17/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. ...
Alternative Crops
U.S. cotton farmers are lamenting a season in which they planted a lot of acres, faced lower yields due to weather, lower prices due to competition from Br...
PM Post - Feels Oversold
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 lower Dec meal: .40 higher Dec soyoil: 22 lower Dec corn: 1/4 lower Dec wheat: 1/4 higher The markets opened as called bu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS: As had been rumored in recent weeks, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan have now signed an official “me...
Technical Views - Lots of Spreads
SPREADS Jan crush continues to firm, trading up to 96.24c/bu as oilshare corrects again today, trading down to 34.13%. Volumes in corn continue...
AM Outlook - More Liquidation
GOOD MORNING, The soy complex continues to liquidate length on the back of a November WASDE that offered little to be bullish about, with the pattern of lo...
Market Commentary
First things first, happy Veteran’s Day! All of us here at WPI extend a heartfelt “Thank you” to all who have served, and are currently s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0575/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&n...
Brazil Disses G20; Narrow Trade Benefits
Brazil Disses G20 Some developing countries came out last week for more generous WTO terms, including expanded special and differential treatment and other...
Where to Find Meat
The ASF outbreak has brought much attention to the world’s tenuous supply of animal protein. China is the largest producer of pork in the world but p...
Will Technology Complicate the Next Farm Bill?
In a recent interview with Politico, House Agriculture Committee chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minnesota) confirmed that he hasn’t decided whether he w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans The market was quiet last week with Chinese buyers generally uninterested in securing soybeans, despite good crush margins in China, especially fo...
PM Post - Weakness
THE OPEN Jan beans: 6 1/2 lower Dec meal: 3.30 lower Dec soyoil: 20 higher Dec corn: 2 2/3 lower Dec wheat: 3 1/2 lower The markets opene...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Most of Southeast Europe has received beneficial rainfall in the past week, helping alleviate some concerns for winter crops. Still, those th...
Technical Views - Trend is Persistent
SPREADS Jan crush firms to 95c/bu while oilshare trades up to 34.46% (heading to 35%?). Nov/Jan bean spread trades back out to 12 1/2c from 11...
AM Outlook - Post-Report Follow Through
GOOD MORNING, The November USDA report has come and gone, and it provided much less market volatility that in previous WASDA reports. &...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Estimates: The soybean oil price is forecast at $0.31 per pound, up $0.01 from last month on sharply higher reported prices through October. The forei...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Estimates: The soybean meal price forecast is also unchanged at $325.00 per short ton. Soybean crush is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.11 billi...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Estimates: Soybean production is forecast at 3.55 billion bushels, down less than 1 million on fractionally lower yields and unchanged harvested area...
WASDE Corn
USDA Estimates: U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.661 billion bush...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Estimates: U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks. Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million...
Market Commentary
The markets opened mostly lower (except soyoil) with modest short-position building and long liquidation ahead of the WASDE. The biggest news item of the m...
USMCA Down, Now Up; Buy the Rumor – How’s That Working Out?; WTO Showdown
USMCA Down, Now Up U.S. House Democrats are sounding more positive about their ability to pass USMCA, though it is unclear whether it will be this year or...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nb...
More Money, More Problems
USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue announced that his agency was “authorized” to make the second round of 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payme...
Competitive Global Corn Pricing
Perhaps exceeding the market’s expectations, USDA reduced the forecast for U.S. corn yield by 1.4 bushels/acre, resulting in a reduction in productio...
PM Post - Now Get Back to Your Trading Ranges
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 1/2 lower Dec meal: .60 lower Dec soyoil: 6 higher Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 2 1/2 lower Prices op...
Technical Views - Oil Yah
SPREADS Nov/Jan beans narrows into new highs of 9 1/2c with Cargill stopping all bean receipts delivered. Jan/March beans firm into 12 1/4c from 12 1...
AM Outlook - Bet is Against Corn
GOOD MORNING, Major trends continue, namely buying beans/selling corn, and buying soyoil/selling meal. The new crop bean to corn ratio traded to new...
Market Commentary
The market opened pretty much as expected, though soyoil took a bigger initial drop than called. Markets continue to be see-sawed by the daily headlines of...
Livestock Round Up
China’s Changing Pork Import Mix Two key reports about China’s impact on global pork demand came out this week. The first was Rabo Bank’s...
Trump Effect; China to Create Farmland
Trump Effect Deborah Elms, Executive Director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore, writes in the Nikkei that President Trump’s demand that more co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Brazil Soy Moratorium
Excellent Week for U.S. Soybean Export Sales The week ending 31 October proved to be an excellent one for exporters of U.S. soybeans. Soymeal export sales...
PM Post - Dicey Ahead of WASDE
THE OPEN Jan beans: 3 higher Dec meal: 2.10 higher Dec soyoil: 21 lower Dec corn: steady Dec wheat: 1 1/4 higher...
Recap: Pre-WASDE Expectations
Once more, here are the advertised expectations for tomorrow's November WASDE. Some expectations include lower yield and production estimates,...
A Mixed Bag for Markets
As grain and soy futures markets tiptoe into November, the bag of potential price moving factors they face seems unusually full. There are the common (for...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 360,600 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 27 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  ...
Technical Views - Testing Both Sides
SPREADS Jan crush trades to 85c/bu while oilshare sits still well supported at 34.40%. Dec/March corn trades slightly weaker today from highs o...
AM Outlook - Some Bounce, Some Slide
GOOD MORNING, The adverse reaction to the headline that the trade negotiations could be pushed back to December played out with heavy selling pressure yest...
PRC Pattern Against U.S.; Nationalization’s Limitations
PRC Pattern Against U.S. A final trade agreement between the U.S. and China remains elusive, with Beijing now insisting on more extensive tariff eliminatio...
Market Commentary
The CBOT today saw light liquidation in soybeans, early short covering in corn that eventually broke down into a lower close, and continued bull spreading...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7875/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Wheat Over-Supported
Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog and White Broiler Prices Retreat After weeks of climbing like a rocket, the national average live pig price dipped last week to RMB 39.8...
PM Post - Ready to Grind Lower
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 lower Dec meal: 1.00 lower Dec soyoil: 16 higher Dec corn: 2 higher Dec wheat: 3 higher Prices opened as called wit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) were still growing despite the global downward tre...
Technical Views - Still Bullish Soyoil
SPREADS Corn spreads are firming with Dec/March narrowing back into 8 1/2c as the official roll for Dec contracts begins tomorrow. Dec 19/Dec 2...
AM Outlook - Wheat Bulls
GOOD MORNING, Funds were net sellers across the board yesterday except in wheat, where they were covering in short positions in front of Friday's report.&n...
More CAP Bashing; USMCA Political Dealing; Trade War’s Cost
More CAP Bashing A reported 2,500 scientists have written the European Parliament advising reform of the Common Agricultural Policy to address biodiversity...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the star of the CBOT today, posting 5-cent gains in SRW and HRW contracts. You know it’s a slow week when a 5-cent gain is the most interes...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8175/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Scale’s Advantage
President Trump is accused of not knowing the facts and not even caring that he doesn’t know them. The same could be said of his political opponents...
Propane Bottleneck in Corn Belt
Back on 22 July, we wrote … this year’s corn crop will likely have a very high moisture content. There hasn’t been a need for dryi...
PM Post - Back Focused on Fundamentals
THE OPEN Jan beans: steady Dec meal: .30 lower Dec soyoil: 20 lower Dec corn: 1 1/4 lower Dec wheat: 1/4 higher The markets opened as expected and fo...
Traders' Expectation for 8 November WASDE
Here is a quick recap of what traders are expecting to see on Friday's report, to be released at 11:00 Central time: DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Prod...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Wheat buyers in the MENA region will have to get used to higher prices for Russian wheat as farmers are...
Technical Views - More Trade Guesses
SPREADS Jan crush trades up to 90c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 34.33%. Dec/March corn trades back out to 10 1/4c from 9 3/4c while Dec 19...
AM Outlook - Disparate Forecasts = Price Risk
GOOD MORNING, Major trends continue to be to buy soy/sell grains. The new crop 2020 bean/corn ratio now stands at 2.41%, with the tendency for...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly driven by pre-WASDE positioning, expectations for harvest progress in the U.S., and the Export Inspections data. The weekly export data...
CAP: Reaping What it Sows
New York Times reporters investigated the operation of the Common Agricultural Policy and reported today that it is used for “corruption and self-dea...
Nothing but Politics Ahead
As of today, there are 365 days until the 2020 elections. That will cast a big shadow on all Congressional activity from here on out. For the Presidential...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8325/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0975/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil’s market was active last week, especially for spot positions as China was paying 91F FOB or 192F CNF for December shipment. At the sa...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News The weather across Europe and the Black Sea remains widely variable with dramatically different implications for summer crop harvest and wint...
Election Year Commodity Prices
According to Jeffrey Hirsch at the Stock Trader’s Almanac, there is a Presidential Election Cycle Theory that says stocks will move in certain ways a...
PM Post - Opened as Called
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 1/2 higher Dec meal: .10 higher Dec soyoil: 42 higher Dec corn: 3 lower Dec wheat: 4 lower Prices...
Technical Views - Up, Down and Contract Rolls
SPREADS Jan crush trades at 83.46c/bu while oilshare trades to new highs at 34.0%. A good harvest pace over the weekend finds spreads a touch weaker,...
AM Outlook - Short Corn, Long Soyoil
GOOD MORNING, This week is likely to feature more positioning in front of the November 8 WASDE report, to be released at 11:00 central time. Fu...
Grain and Oilseed Crush Drop
USDA issued its 1 November report on grains and soybeans crushed during the month of September and, no surprise, the numbers were lower. Grain crushed for...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.16/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were mixed to end the week with wheat and soybeans finding strength while corn quietly traded sideways. The ongoing harvest that now faces bet...
Unnecessary Protectionism; Solving the Wrong Problem; GSP Leverage
Unnecessary Protectionism The pro-trade group, Hinrich Foundation, correctly calculates that the relative commercial strengths of the U.S. and Brazil make...
Latest Economic Data’s Relevance to Farm Economy Outlook
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, for the third time in a row. The new target for the federal funds rate is now 1...
PM Post - Well Bid
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 1/2 higher Dec meal: 1.50 higher Dec soyoil: 3 lower Dec corn: 1 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 3/4 lower...
Technical Views - Watch for the Little Things
SPREADS Dec crush slightly weaker moving down to 89.98c/bu while oilshare moves down to 33.47%. Jan/March beans firm to 12 1/2c after the bean receip...
AM Outlook - Congestive Trade
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue in trading range territory today, congesting between recent highs and lows. Heading out the door today it appears that...
Market Commentary
There is no U.S. – China trade agreement until there is one, and yet the mood in the market is blamed on gyrating messages about the negotiations. Wh...
USMCA Trouble; Thai Troubles; Farmers versus the Facts
USMCA Trouble U.S. House Ways & Means trade subcommittee member Bill Pascrell (D-New Jersey) says he is leaning toward voting against USMCA because the...
Livestock Round Up
Chinese Chicken Demand News this past weekend that broilers would be part of the so-called Phase One trade deal with China has had more impact on sto...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0875/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights: Paraguay Soybeans, China Soy Stocks, EU Rapeseed, Soy Export Sales
Soybeans in Paraguay Suffering from Dry Weather Paraguay is the third-largest soybean producing nation in South America. It produced about 8.85 MMT of soyb...
PM Post - Path of Least Resistance
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1 lower Dec meal: .10 higher Dec soyoil: 20 lower Dec corn: 3 lower Dec wheat: 4 1/4 lower Prices opened...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 493,800 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 88 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. &n...
Technical Views - Mostly Lower
SPREADS Dec crush firms to 89.40c/bu while oilshare drops to 33.72%. Dec/March corn spread continues to firm, narrowing into 8 1/4c from 8 3/4c, and...
Pausing to Reflect
It is not that grain and soy futures markets are on vacation exactly, but in recent days it almost feels that way. One could easily read a book while watch...
AM Outlook - Buffeted by News
GOOD MORNING, This continues to be a busy news week from the cancellation of the November APEC summit in Chile, to comments from Mnuchin that China may hav...
Market Commentary
In his book The Black Swan, author Nassim Taleb makes the argument that increasing globalization in many ways makes our economic and political systems more...
U.S. – China Should Agree on Fake
In addition to losing a place for a planned signing after Chile canceled hosting next month’s APEC meeting, the U.S. – China Phase One trade ag...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9075/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&n...
Odd Ethanol Economics
The Golden state is being challenged over the saying, as goes California, so goes the Nation. Egg farmers in other states are challenging Sacramento’...
PM Post - Corn Spread Strength
THE OPEN Jan beans: steady Dec meal: .40 lower Dec soyoil: 23 higher Dec corn: 3/4 higher Dec wheat: 3 lower The market opened as expecte...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 October 2019 Domestic Russian grain (excluding corn) prices kept growing at a higher rate than the previous week. Specifically...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Hog and Live Chicken Prices Jump By 13 and 16 Percent When the month of October concludes tomorrow, it will long be remembered in China as...
Technical Views - Steady to Higher
SPREADS First notice day for November contracts is tomorrow, with the NOv/Jan trading out to 15 3/4c in the pm session. Jan/March beans...
AM Outlook - Buffeted by Headlines
GOOD MORNING, Prices in the soy complex continued to be buffeted about by daily headlines of off, and on again negotiations. The demand from Trump th...
Ag Review - October 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers changes in China’s meat consumption...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.115/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly dominated by trading ranges today with pre-WASDE positioning beginning in earnest. Funds continued selling into the corn market, and li...
Peronists and Ag Exports
Argentina’s productive agriculture sector rooted for Mauricio Macri in this past weekend’s presidential election. They vividly recall the Kirch...
House Biofuel Hearing on “Abuse of Secret Waivers” - Octane Standard Proposed
The House Energy and Commerce Committee held a hearing this morning entitled, “Protecting the RFS: The Trump Administration’s Abuse of Secret W...
The End of U.S. Agricultural Exports; Labor Blocks USMCA
The End of U.S. Agricultural Exports Agriculture is the first sector receiving retaliation in trade disputes and there is no end in sight for trade wars. T...
PM Post - Mixed with Defensive Tones
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 1/4 lower Dec meal: .80 lower Dec soyoil: 1 lower Dec corn: 1 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with f...
17 Days Left for USMCA and BTC; Shorter Time for Appropriations
There are only 18 days scheduled on the legislative calendar before Congress recesses for Christmas. There is a lot to do, which Congress will have to bala...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Depending on which news source you choose to believe, Iran could import 3 - 6 MMT of wheat in 2019/20...
Technical Views - Cover Wheat Shorts on Breaks
SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 87.40c/bu while oilshare trades at 33.64%. Dec/March corn moves narrows into 10c from 10 3/4c. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn trades...
AM Outlook - Trading Ranges Will Dominate
Good morning, Trading ranges continue to dominate the market as we draw closer to the 8 November WASDE report, in which traders expect to see another cut t...
Market Commentary
Perhaps the biggest news of the weekend was the results of Argentina’s Presidential elections. The leftist ticket of Alberto Fernandez won the Presid...
Argentine Election Impacts; Technological Sovereignty; Your Survey Answer; Food Trends
Argentina Election Impacts Argentines went to the voting booths for a general election yesterday (27 October) that was deemed fateful for agriculture. As t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.84/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.1175/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Election Results Argentina’s elections concluded on Sunday, with Alberto Fernandez winning the presidency in the first round...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Farmers across the UK, Ireland, France, and northern Germany are struggling to plant winter crops this fall due to heavy September rains. Fre...
PM Post - Mostly Sideways
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 1/2 higher Dec meal: .20 higher Dec soyoil: 12 higher Dec corn: 2 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 5 1/2 lower The markets trad...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 87c/bu while oilshare is at 33.79%. Volume remains huge for the March/Dec corn spread which narrows into 10 3/4c from 11c...
AM Outlook - Important Support Levels Likely Hold
GOOD MORNING, Price trends this AM are not much different from last week, as grains leak lower while the soy complex works higher. Meal futures trade...
Cattle on Feed
• USDA reports U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent at 11.3 million head on October 1, 2019. The inventory was 1 percent below October 1, 2018. &b...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mixed with varied news items creating conflicting price action. Dryness across central Brazil is dominant for the coming week but features mor...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8675/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. N...
Cattle on Feed Numbers Come in as Expected
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report this afternoon. The inventory of all cattle and calves on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head capacity o...
PM Post - Argentine Election Bears Watching by Bears
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 lower Dec meal: .80 higher Dec soyoil: 20 lower Dec corn: 1/4 lower Dec wheat: 1 higher The mark...
Underconsumption Areas
Building demand becomes a central focus during times of abundant resource surpluses. Asia is the easiest due to its demographics and GDP growth but there i...
Technical Views - Strong Support - Watch for Pullbacks and Profit Taking
SPREADS Dec crush moves higher to 84c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.66%. Dec/March meal is a steady $6.00 to $6.20 carry. Dec/March corn...
AM Outlook - Only Small Changes
GOOD MORNING, Prices remain little changed this morning though, soyoil made a new high again overnight. Traders continue to keep an eye out on weathe...
Ending EU’s Big Ag; Whipsaw on China
Ending EU’s Big Ag The French government institution France Stratégie issued a report calling for a complete overhaul of the Common Agricultur...
Market Commentary
China’s offer to return to normal levels of agricultural commodity buying from the U.S. is underwhelming. China’s waiver of higher tariffs on 1...
Livestock Roundup
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle...
Oilseed Highlights: India Vegoil, U.S. Soy Sales, Egypt Vegoil Tender, Argentine Election
India’s Vegoil Imports to Increase by 1 MMT Per Year B.V. Mehta, the head of India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), says India imports o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8675/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.16/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
PM Post - Impressive Nonetheless
THE OPEN Jan beans: 1/4 higher Dec meal: 80 lower Dec soyoil: 30 higher Dec corn: steady Dec wheat: 1 1/2 lower...
Food Demand Present and Future
In recent years, a number of agricultural futurists have expressed concern about the ability of the world to increase the food supply enough to feed the wo...
Technical Views - Higher to Mixed
SPREADS Dec crush firms to 82c/bu while oilshare sits at 33.31%. Corn spreads are narrower with Dec/March trading into 11 1/4c from 12c, and Dec 19/D...
AM Outlook - Trading Range = No Fall
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly higher today led by soyoil futures that are back to yesterday's fresh highs. Trading range activity continues, with t...
Market Commentary
The CBOT traded mostly flat today with conflicting impacts of slow corn exports, steady soybean shipments, weather that is favorable in the near-term but d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8775/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.2075/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&...
Canadian Ag Policy, Eh?; Korean Example at OECD
Canadian Ag Policy, Eh? After winning a plurality of seats but not a majority, Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party will have to govern as a coalition and...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Exploding Meat Prices Drive September’s Food Inflation A further look at the September data from China’s National Bureau of Stat...
Uncomfortable Farm Economy Truths
The Farm Foundation held a conference on the farm economy this week and following are key points made by the presenters. American Farm Bureau Federation Ch...
PM Post - Waiting for Real Biz
THE OPEN Jan beans: 2 1/2 lower Dec meal: .40 lower Dec soyoil: 10 lower Dec corn: 1 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 1/2 lower Prices op...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 October 2019 Domestic Russian grain prices (excluding corn) continue to grow due to active demand from both domestic bu...
Technical Views - Reversal
SPREADS Dec crush trades up to 80c/bu while oilshare is still firm at 33.42%. Dec/March corn is a steady 11 3/4c-12c, which is narrower than it...
AM Outlook - Looking Lower
GOOD MORNING, When a technical price move is initiated by such a definite signal as a key reversal or head and shoulders formation, it is sometimes obvious...
Breakthrough for Farm Labor Bill in Congress
Since 2011, there have been more than two dozen farm labor reform bills proposed in the U.S. Congress with no major progress to addressing the issue of agr...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was somewhat muted during the day session after trading strongly into the green during the overnight. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report that...
WTO Will Be Fixed; Europe’s Poultry Squawks
WTO Will Be Fixed Former WTO Deputy Director Alan Wolff told a Washington audience this week that the Appellate Body situation can be resolved but probably...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.88/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Spreads
THE OPEN Nov beans: up 8 3/4 Dec meal: up 2.80 Dec soyoil: up 19 Dec corn: up 2 3/4 Dec wheat: up 4 3/4 Prices opened towards the higher end of tradi...
Long-term ASF Impact
In just two years, African Swine Fever is likely to have reduced Chinese pork production by more than a third. However, Oklahoma State University economist...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Iran has announced plans to increase the area for wheat planting by 500,000 hectares to 2.25 million he...
Technical Views - Targeting Recent Highs
Interested in trying Technical Perspectives or adding it to your company account? Email Matt Herrington at mherrington@agrilink.com for...
AM Outlook - PRC Bean Buys
Interested in trying Technical Perspectives or adding it to your company account? Email Matt Herrington at mherrington@agrilink.com for details.&...
Market Commentary
The CBOT started out higher with an overnight rally, but lackluster corn demand and a lack of Chinese sales announcements/rumors left the grain markets to...
CAP Battle Tomorrow; Weaponized Trade Policy; Too Much Internet
CAP Battle Tomorrow Environmental groups will be leading protests tomorrow as the new European Parliament (EP) meets in Strasbourg. Using small farmers as...
SRE Saga Continues; Administration Ready to be Done
As we’ve noted, both the biofuels and petroleum industry are less than impressed with the Administration’s plan to reallocate SREs as a supplem...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8725/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview After several weeks of uncertainty, the market is starting to realize that the trade war won’t find a short-term solution. T...
Growing African Food Market
Long considered a basket case, scarred by colonialism and on permanent aid dependency, Sub-Saharan Africa is receiving more attention these days for its po...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s weekly seaport grain exports increased 47 percent last week, reaching 1.13 MMT. Wheat exports totaled 557,000 MT while corn s...
PM Post - Coming Down for Room to Go Up
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 3/4 higher Dec meal: 1.50 higher Dec soyoil: 1 lower Dec corn: 1/4 higher Dec wheat: 1/2 higher The mar...
Technical Views - Soybeans Heading Higher
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 78c/bu while oilshare is lower correcting down to 32.87%. Bean spreads are wider with Jan/March trading out to one-month...
AM Outlook - Covering Shorts
GOOD MORNING, The focus continues to be on harvest weather in the US, planting weather in SA, and politics. In the process, funds have covered in a g...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&nb...
The Evolving Trading System; CAP’s Fault; Fooled Foodies
The Evolving Trading System WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo laments that people are forgetting the importance of a rule-based system of economic...
Market Commentary
Trading at the CBOT today was muted with traders mostly evening positions, taking some profits, and generally not adding to or subtracting from risk ahead...
Rise in Wheat Futures
Chicago wheat futures have been climbing for the past few weeks based on still somewhat speculative supply losses due to adverse weather conditions and sol...
Canadian Federal Elections and Ag Trade
Canada will hold its federal parliamentary election on Monday 21 October. Polling shows a tight race. The latest 10 major published polls (for what polling...
PM Post - Opportunities to Own
THE OPEN Nov beans: steady Dec soyoil: 13 higher Dec meal: .60 lower Dec corn: 4 lower Dec wheat: 1 lower Prices start...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 395,100 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 24 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.&n...
Technical Views - All Technical Today
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 78c/bu, which is in recovery mode off the lows this week of 73c/bu. Dec oilshare trades to 33.13%. Corn spreads wid...
AM Outlook - New Highs
GOOD MORNING, The wheat and soyoil markets took center stage this week advancing to new highs for their trading ranges. Chicago wheat continues to be...
Bad Tariff Idea; Hurdles to New Breeding Techniques
Bad Tariff Idea In an effort to rationalize the imposition of tariffs by President Trump, some Republicans are trying to create support for them by directi...
Livestock Roundup
Broilers Under Short Term Pressure Meat demand remains steady with production. USDA’s forecast ending stocks for the fourth quarter of 2019 remains r...
Market Commentary
The futures market ended the day with weakness where there had been strength as in lean hogs and soyoil, and strength where there had been weakness, such a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9475/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.255/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush, Soy Sales to China, GMO Cotton, Ukraine Oilseeds
NOPA September Crush Well Below Expectations The September NOPA report released on Wednesday indicated 152.566 million bushels (4.153 MMT) of soybeans were...
PM Post - Wheat's Missing Fundamentals
THE OPEN Nov beans: 6 3/4 higher Dec meal: 2.60 higher Dec soyoil: 14 higher Dec corn: 4 1/4 higher Dec wheat: 7 3/4 hi...
Better than it Was
The year 2019 has been difficult for cow-calf producers with heavy winter snowstorms that reduced calf survival rates, massive spring flooding, and the sum...
Technical Views - Up Across the Board
SPREADS Dec crush falls to 70c/bu, new ctr lows, on slower meal demand. Oilshare firms to 33.24% after dropping to 32.55% last week. Dec/...
AM Outlook - Go Wheat!
GOOD MORNING, Wheat strength is dominant this morning, as prices jump to new trading range highs as the last of the shorts cover. Spread trade contin...
Morality Trade
Trade and industry are not just distorted by tariffs a la Donald Trump, but increasingly by sanctions intended to protect a political or moral principle.&n...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mixed with little conviction. Corn and soybeans headed lower while wheat managed to find support on spread trading and technical buying. The m...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9175/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.1325/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&n...
Bear Market Impacts on Labor
U.S. farmers are hurting financially from commodity prices that have been falling for half a dozen years and now exaggerated by the trade war with China. H...
PM Post - Buy Beans Against Corn
THE OPEN Nov beans: 1 1/2 higher Dec meal: .70 higher Dec soyoil: 5 higher Dec corn: 2 1/4 lower Dec wheat:&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 October 2019 Domestic Russian grain (including corn) prices kept growing due to active demand from both domestic buyers and for...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics China’s Monthly Food Inflation Highest in Eight Years The sharp rise in live hog prices along with increases in the costs of poultry a...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 77.83c/bu while oilshare is back below 33% to 32.96%. Corn spreads weaken with Dec/March trading out to 11 3/...
AM Outlook - Back in Trading Ranges
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to setback into trading ranges. Funds were sellers of 10K corn contracts yesterday as harvest rolls in and cash w...
Ethanol versus Oil; Impeachment Answer/U.S.-China Outcome; Self-Designation
Ethanol versus Oil Global ethanol use is predicted to increase but its main purpose is not to replace oil but to boost octane and thus reduce air pollution...
EPA Biofuel Plans Locks in E15
The Trump Administration rolled out its proposed reforms to the biofuels required volume obligations (RVO) today. • EPA will project the a...
Market Commentary
The CBOT started lower today with corn, the soy complex, and wheat all moving into the red overnight. Corn finished the overnight down 4 cents and soybeans...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9325/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.07/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Miracle
The return of the Black Sea region as the breadbasket of the world is really a story about productivity gain. Over a decade (2008 to 2017), both China and...
PM Post - Least Resistance is Lower
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 lower Dec meal: 1.10 lower Dec soyoil: 1 higher Dec corn: 3 lower Dec wheat: 3 3/4...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The World Bank expects the Egyptian economy will grow by 5.8 percent this fiscal year which began 1 July 2019. Growth is...
Technical Views - Awaiting Crop Progress
SPREADS Dec crush trades close to contract lows at 74c/bu while oilshare is a steady 32.55%. Corn spreads are weaker today as harvest resumes, with D...
AM Outlook - Ridding Some Length Seems Reasonable
GOOD MORNING, The markets continued to be bandied about by what could be first steps in a long process toward a trade resolution between the US/China. ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.11/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 1...
Market Commentary
Trading at the CBOT amid the U.S. Columbus Day holiday was cautious but saw mostly higher prices/buyer support. Technical buying fueled some speculative bu...
What the Trade Deficit Says about the U.S. Economy
USDA released its weekly sales report last week with some mixed news, but another trade report has some interesting insights into the overall economy: the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans The market was pretty calm last week while waiting for definition on a few points. The first was the October WASDE report, which showed fewe...
PM Post - Friendlier than Expected
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 lower Dec meal: .80 lower Dec soyoil: 4 lower Dec corn: 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 3 higher The ma...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Ukraine has already exported 15.096 MMT of grain since the 2019/20 marketing year started, a 4.6 MMT increase from the same time in 2018/19...
Sustainability’s Implications
As the EU presses its farmers to adopt practices that are environmentally sound, these producers increasingly agitate to have the same standards applied to...
Technical Views - Challenging the Highs
SPREADS Crush trades down to 78c/bu while oilshare trades down to 32.55%. Corn spreads narrow further with Dec/March trading into 9 1/4c from 10 1/4c...
AM Outlook - Higher but Watch for Reversal
GOOD MORNING, Prices traded to new trading range highs on the weekend storm that damages immature crops and ultimately reduces production. This weath...
Market Commentary
Grain markets shrugged off yesterday’s bearish WASDE with multiple headlines circulating today that fueled buying strength. Most notably, reports of...
Mini-Deal Rationale; Incongruous Negotiations
Mini-Deal Rationale The details are not complete at this time, but reports indicate that the Trump Administration has reached a partial agreement with the...
Biofuel Rule Moving Forward; Record Ethanol Inventory Drop
Last Friday, the Administration announced its plans to boost the ethanol volumes under the RFS to “more than 15 billion gallons,” however...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9775/bushel, up $0.175 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. N...
PM Post - Bullishness Not Without Risk
THE OPEN Nov beans: 7 higher Dec soyoil: 18 higher Dec meal: 2.90 higher Dec corn: 5 1/...
Technical Views - Sideways to Higher
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 82.43c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.55%. Bull-spreads are in play with Dec/March corn trading into 10 1/4c from 11 1/2c...
AM Outlook - Rethinking Yesterday
GOOD MORNING, The markets are firmer this morning with more optimistic viewpoints as to trade negotiations combined with the impact of the storm crossing t...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Reports: The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 30.0 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Reports: The soybean meal price is forecast at $325.00 per short ton, up $20.00. ...
Market Commentary
The market has much uncertainty to grapple with – a looming Midwest winter storm, U.S. – China trade negotiations and, until noon today, a USDA...