FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 15 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 November 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets were mixed this week with Capes rising while Supramax vessel rates declined yet again. The Capesize sector found support from China’s recent efforts to stockpile coal and iron ore, but this support has not yet t...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Jumps Higher on Massive Egypt Imports; Soymeal Falls on EUDR News
Wheat remains the darling of the CBOT with more bullish news pouring into the complex. Today’s rally was sparked by reports that Egypt has booked over 3 MMT of wheat from the Black Sea (presumably Russia) to be exported over the next six months. That move comes as Russian wheat stocks are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 September 2024 The Russian grain market is finally showing bullish sentiments. Adverse weather in Russia this season concerns many analysts, and they are one after another decreasing their forecasts for overall grain production. Exact numbers are hard to figure...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 August 2024 Kazakhstan announced they will close the borders with Russia for wheat from now until 31 December. This will put even more pressure on the Russian wheat market and may push them to offer softer offers for GASC tenders where they are the key players...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 August 2024 Crop Outlook As of 13 August, Russian farmers produced 69 MMT of grains from 20.6 Mha versus 73.5 MMT from 19.5 Mha last year. The average yield showed 3.36 MT/ha versus 3.76 a year ago. Wheat production reached 56.3 MMT from 15.8 Mha versus 57.4 M...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Market Commentary: Weather, Specs and Cheap Prices
The weather is bearish, except for spring wheat, and speculators are record short. Even having the cheapest grain in the world cannot spark enough new demand to slow the slide. Finding a bottom requires a supply shock, and the potential 20 MMT loss in Black Sea production due to drought is not...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 August 2024 Crop Outlook Russian analysts woke up to the fact that grain production reported from farms is higher than originally predicted. The reaction was quick and most of the main analytical agencies in Russia reforecast their numbers upwards. Particularly,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 July–2 August 2024 Russian Vice Premier Patroushev announced that Russia is 40 percent done with harvesting small grains. The harvesting pace is ahead of last year’s pace; however, production is only 64 MMT which is lower than last year’s crop. The gr...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Sink on Record Yield Chatter; Wheat Firms on Quality Worries
Corn, the soy complex, and cattle futures each saw extended weakness in Thursday’s CBOT trade with the crop markets coming under pressure from favorable weather conditions and forecasts for the U.S. There is increasing market chatter about record breaking yields for both corn and soybeans...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 July 2024 This season Russia will fail to produce a record crop despite an earlier harvesting campaign. The Ministry of Agriculture believes in their previous forecast of 132 MMT of which wheat is 86 MMT. Interestingly, the Ministry of Agriculture is the most...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Market Commentary: Midwest Heat Concerns Corn, Soybeans; Cattle Finally React to COF Report
After two days of exciting trade, the CBOT settled down a little on Tuesday to reflect more deeply on market fundamentals. Monday’s Crop Progress data was largely reassuring for the major row crops, which helped create more stability in futures for the day. Wheat futures dipped but did no...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trends Continue; Ukraine’s Corn in Jeopardy
The CBOT saw generally quiet, steady trade at mid-week, but many players noted firmer undertones as futures stabilize or start to recover from deeply oversold conditions. Corn and all three wheat futures markets turned higher with cautious bull spreading with the latter market seeing support fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign. Even though this year’s crop is quite modest compared to the past several seasons, the pressure on prices is significant because of...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Neutral Corn; Soybeans Fall on Demand Worries
CBOT futures had a relatively muted reaction to the USDA’s July WASDE as large U.S. and global new crop ending stocks damped much of any potential volatility. The biggest theme was larger U.S. and world wheat supplies and stocks while the outlook for corn saw far more muted changes. Soybe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower
Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade. Trading volume was expectedly light ahead of the one-day break in trading and few markets made major moves. Those that did, however, include...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 June 2024 Russia’s grain markets were quite volatile with some regions showing price recoveries. Southern Russia’s harvesting campaign is underway. Fresh demand for new crop barley has seen better price levels and as long as feed barley exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 June 2024 Last week, Russian grain markets were quite volatile. In the south, the main export-oriented areas saw grain prices drop following the global bearish trend and Russia’s most recent failure on the GASC tender in Egypt. Moreover, Russia’s s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 June 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable and slightly bullish against solid demand for Russian wheat globally and recently appreciated markets due to fears of lower production caused by adverse spring weather. All Russian ministries, including the Ministr...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 May 2024 Russia remains the focus of many world grain analysts as weather factors in Russia and Ukraine make global markets nervous and bullish. Futures markets reacted almost instantaneously while Russian markets only now realize the situation and all grains...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Move to Trading Range Lows; Wheat Falls on Black Sea Rain
Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting progress, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and rains forecast for the Black Sea region this week. Corn and soybeans primarily saw their weakness de...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 May 2024 Crop Outlook Russian weather, particularly spring frosts, became an important factor in estimating the potential of this season’s crop. Despite the warnings from government agencies not to publish forecasts, several Russian analysts still announ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Bulls Remain Relentless; U.S. Farmers Make Strong Planting Progress
Overnight volume was strong at the CBOT with traders eager to get back to work following a weekend of reductions in the Black Sea crop forecast(s). Several private firms lowered their Russian wheat crop estimates late Friday or over the weekend, which sent EU futures higher on Monday and create...
Market Commentary: Weather Continues to Drive CBOT Strength; Meat Stocks Tighten Further
Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South America over the coming three-day holiday weekend. Weather concerns for planting the 2024 U.S. crops are lingering despite strong progress to da...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Corn Still Strong; Soy Complex Waivers
Corn traded mostly higher all session and has gained value in three of the past four days. The soy complex was higher in the overnight session and opened that way this morning, but it didn’t last long and closed in the red. The July soybean contract has had a mixed week, but it is still u...
Sunflower on Edge
Global sunflower seed production is only about one-seventh as large as soybean output, but it has surprisingly continued on a similar trend in supply despite the war between the two largest producers, Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s sunflower seed production faltered in 2022 at the outset o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 May 2024 Crop Outlook As of mid-May, Russia farmers planted 24.8 Mha of spring crops which is 44.5 percent of the forecast. This is 4.6 Mha ahead of last year’s planting pace. Grains and pulses were planted over 12.98 Mha which is 43.2 percent of the for...
Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans
Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ranging from Smolensk all the way to Volga Valley. Some nighttime temperatures were as low as minus 12 degrees Celsius which is catastrophic f...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April–3 May 2024 Last week Russia celebrated International Labor Day, and on May 9 will celebrate WWII Victory Day, resulting in a long 10-day holiday for many Russian families, including grain traders. This traditionally slows down trade, however, logistics cont...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 April 2024 Russian analysts are beginning to worry that this season’s grain production in Russia may drop from almost 145 MMT in 2023 to 135 MMT because of the drought in Southern Federal District – the wheat belt of Russia. Russian Ministry of Agr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may leave Russia without proper genetics for this spring’s planting campaign. While small grains are available due to long term domestic see...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 April 2024 The government has realized that taxing exportable wheat and barley at a high rate was not a good idea, especially with wheat stocks pushing the roof. Possibly the news about softer duties will improve prices for small grains. Corn duty is symbolic an...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 March 2024 Last week, the Russian domestic grain market was volatile. Most of the grains were recovering following global trends and demand in the export zone of Russia. However, even with zero duty which lasted only one week, feed corn continued losing ground...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risks Sink CBOT, Macro Markets
The CBOT and broader financial/macroeconomic markets reflected uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks on Tuesday with traders adopting a strong “risk off” mentality. Rising tensions in the Middle East with Iran and Israel’s proxy fight threatening to dissolve into an open w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 March 2024 The Russian domestic grain market saw depreciation of milling wheat and a slight depreciation of feed wheat, while feed corn also started to appreciate - most probably because of softer export duties. For the upcoming week, exports of feed corn from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on EU Tariffs; Soy, Corn Drift Lower Before Stocks, Acres Reports
The wheat market was the surprising upside leader for the day with Matif Paris futures posting large gains after sources said the EU Commission is considering applying a €95/MT tariff on Russian wheat imports. That strength spilled over into the U.S. markets, though U.S. wheat exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish in the south and Volga valley. However, export prices did not react immediately despite a decreased export duty and weaker RUB. In fact, a weaker RUB is better for Russian grain exports which are at hi...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...
Market Commentary: South American Rains, Export Competition Push CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with wheat leading the way on new contract lows in Paris wheat and aggressive competition from Ukraine and Russia on the export market. CBOT wheat also scored new contract lows as traders again piled into short positions on the emerging technical weakness. Corn...
Market Commentary: Next Week Won’t Be Boring as Wheat, Corn Pull Back and Soybeans Rise
The CBOT was mixed to end the week and start the month of March with livestock futures extending their rallies amid strong fundamentals. Grain trade, however, was less decisive with wheat futures dropping sharply lower amid greater competition from Ukraine and a bearish breakdown in technical c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...
Ukraine's Limited Choices
Much like U.S. farmers, Ukrainian producers prefer to plant the most profitable crops. This is especially true when considering Ukraine’s farmers are reportedly losing $50/MT on corn. The preference is to grow soybeans, and output of the oilseed increased nearly 27 percent in 2023. Howeve...
Market Commentary: Bearish Long-Term Projections, Outlook Expectations Sink Grain Markets
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with USDA issuing a bearish long-term outlook late Tuesday and traders looking for bearish numbers from the agency later this week. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will be in Washington, D.C. this Thursday and Friday and will offer the agency’s fir...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The export market has been driving this market for a while and intervention purchases did not save Russian farmers from the global bear. Moreover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harvested from occupied territories. During a recent press conference, he mentioned that during 2023 Russia produced 150 MMT in bunker weight and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 January 2024 After the January holidays, the Russian market is being revised step-by-step. The volume of trade is not so impressive but against all odds and large stocks the market saw some bullish sentiments especially with rye and peas. Peas dramatically appr...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...
2023: A Look Back in Humor
Note, the following is an attempt to summarize 2023’s major developments in ag markets and U.S. and world politics while injecting humor. Obviously, not everything is 100% factually “correct” and we leave it to you to determine fact from (hopefully) humorous fiction. Jan...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 December 2023 As of late December, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts grain production at 142 MMT. A week ago, the Russian Statistics Agency had already reported 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Done...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 December 2023 As of mid-December, the Russian Statistics Agency reports 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. The wheat crop alone accounted for 92.8 MMT which is the sec...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs like seeds, fertilizers, chemicals, spare parts, and western equipment. In an effort to help, the government provided subsidies to farmers a...
Changes in the Wheat Market
Decades ago, when wheat was king, WPI had many analysts keenly interested in wheat. Since then, corn became king and now soybeans jockey for top honors. Wheat is still important and filled with changing dynamics, none more notable than the rise of Black Sea wheat, and Russia in particular. Russ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT a year ago. The information from the Ministry is delayed and is usually adjusted several times. Wheat was reportedly harvested from 29.1 Mha...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 November–1 December 2023 Russian markets finally broke the bear which has been present almost since the beginning of the new season. High quality milling wheat is unmistakably bullish; the main factor is a lower share of high-quality milling wheat even though whe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 November 2023 Russian markets remained quite volatile, however, the Asian area finally stabilized because Kazakhstan seems to have replenished their stocks for the moment. The Siberian market is stable and although prices for 3rd grade milling wheat are...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia has shipped two vessels of wheat to Somalia and Burkina Faso as part of the country’s promise to send free grain to Africa. China purchased 66 KMT of feed corn from Ukraine at $248/MT C&F for December shipment. Through 24 November, Ukraine has ex...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 November 2023 The Russian market remained quite volatile with European Russia bearish and the Asian region bullish thanks to solid demand from Kazakhstan. However, the gap between the European and Asian parts of the country is getting smaller and smaller...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Climb on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Russian Attacks
Wheat futures were the exception to the CBOT’s trend-following trade on Tuesday, as the market rallied following another round of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports. The news sent wheat higher with CBOT futures up 10+ cents in a clear break from their recent trend lower. Corn and soybeans...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 November 2023 Russian markets remained quite volatile last week with the European area stable and bearish but the Asian part stable and bullish thanks to demand from Kazakhstan. This can move into a stagnation period where, with no fundamental factors inv...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks by 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel. This month’s 2023/24 global corn ending stocks, at 315.0 million tons, are up 2.6 million...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 October–3 November 2023 As of 30 October, Russia harvested 140.2 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 9.8 MMT less than the same date a year ago. Grains and pulses were harvested from 45.4 Mha which is 94.6 percent of the crop averaging 3.09 MT/ha versus...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Start Week Firm; Soybeans Rally as Technicals Lead Fundamentals?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with corn and wheat finding small gains on light buying interest while soybeans jumped higher on export demand and a rally in soyoil. Soyoil futures were nearly 3 percent higher for the day with noted bull spreading in a likely sign of commercial demand. F...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 23–27 October 2023 As of 27 October, winter crops were planted over 18.5 Mha versus the 20 Mha planned by the government. If Russia reaches this number, it will be up 1.5 Mha from last year. This also includes occupied territories of Ukraine, according to the g...
Market Commentary: Wheat Had Volume and Gains
The market opened mostly in the green this morning after overnight markets showed small gains for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats. About mid-session, corn and the soybean complex began trading both sides unchanged while wheat retained some upward if less lofty positions. In fact,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 October 2023 As of 20 October, Russian farmers harvested grains and pulses from 44.6 Mha which is in line with last year (44.5 Mha), averaging 3.08 MT/ha versus 3.33 MT/ha, a record-breaking year in Russian history. Interestingly, Russia first reports th...
Market Commentary: End of Week Reshuffle
The only certainty of the past week is that soymeal is going stratospheric. But corn, soybeans, and wheat took a breather today. For the week: December corn gained 0.456 percent December soymeal rose 8.69 percent November soybeans gained 1.71 percent December soyoil lost 1.82...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 October 2023 After weeks and weeks of bearish sentiments the market is finally coming to relative stability because farmers can afford to sit on their stocks, and most of the multinational trades are not currently doing business in Russia. Local old and n...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks by 110 million bushels to 2,111 million bushels for 2023/24. This is still a healthy ending stocks, but the estimated season-average corn price received by U.S. farmers was raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel. Global corn stocks are down 1...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the WASDE Storm
The CBOT was mostly calm before Thursday’s October WASDE – a report that often produces volatile reactions from the market. Corn and wheat drifted mostly lower, but corn managed to squeeze out a gain of a few cents in quiet trade. Soybeans dropped sharply lower despite daily “...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market: October 2-6, 2023 Bearish sentiments prevailed as the market became volatile from a variety of factors. On the one hand, there are ample stocks, high export duties, and low export prices. On the other the global market should be reaching its bottom and soon begin recoverin...
Market Commentary: Corn and Livestock Bulls Revived; Wheat, Soy Struggle Under Bearish Pall
Grains and livestock markets traded opposite directions to end the week with non-meat products ending lower amid profit taking and pre-WASDE position adjustment while livestock futures rallied across the board. One might have expected grain futures to post gains to end the week, given the week&...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Supply Expectations; Hog Trend Reversal Underway?
The CBOT was mostly lower in lackluster trade Wednesday with soymeal, live cattle, and hogs seeing the only substantial gains. The general trend for the week seems to be that global grain and oilseed supplies will be more ample for 2023/24 than expected, which is weighing on futures. Grains wer...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–27 September 2023 Bearish sentiments prevail as the harvest brings more and more grain to the market while exports are unable to cope with such large volumes and surpluses of wheat. There is a lack of competition on the buyer’s side as fewer and fewer...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Back After Friday’s Drubbing; Soyoil Stocks Hit 4-year Low
The CBOT largely reversed Friday’s extreme, post-Grain Stocks report selloff with corn fully erasing the prior trading day’s losses. Fresh news was light for the day, however, and Monday’s strength was largely due to “flash” export sales to China and Mexico along w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
Declining Ukrainian Market Share
Ukraine has successfully sent a few ships filled with grain out the Black Sea the past few weeks, but it is unlikely to transit the 33 MMT achieved under the now defunct grain corridor agreement with Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is attacking Ukraine’s sea and river ports including hammering...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises Despite Coming Harvest Pressure
The CBOT found a bit of strength for the day with corn seeing the most bullish action on expectations of a smaller 2023/24 Brazilian crop. Corn posted its second straight higher close with mild fund participation and the strength spilled over into wheat and soybeans to a small degree. Fresh new...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 11–15 September 2023 Russian grain markets plummeted on reports of another large crop and huge carryover which is not traditional for this time of the season. We are talking about 140 MMT of new crop plus around 27 MMT of old crop (carryover). Russia started th...
Market Commentary: Lower Through October
The CBOT started the new week on a bearish note with last week’s WASDE and fund selling as reported in the CFTC report creating pressure. Corn has the most bearish fundamentals right now, so it’s understandable that the market dropped to a new low for the year and broke technical su...
Market Commentary: Next Day Hangover
Corn and soybeans staged reversals to yesterday’s WASDE-driven declines while wheat continued tacking higher on the report’s forecasted decline in global supplies. The price gains in feed supplies may have spooked livestock as those contracts traded lower. Also lurking in the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 September 2023 Russian grain markets remained bearish, however, export volumes of all agricultural commodities from Russia remained stable. Russia has no navigation restrictions across the Black Sea. Going through Bosporus or any other channel, Russia can...
WASDE Corn
USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged. The result is ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel. Foreig...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 August–1 September 2023 Russian grain markets finally signaled that the new crop is calling the shots on the market. Southern areas went bearish because of ample supply and slow logistics while inland trading is trying to find its bottom price as farmers ar...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Ratings Hit Five-Year Lows; Wheat Beats a Bearish Drum
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened week in a lackluster manner with the soy complex sinking lower, largely on weaker palm oil values and soymeal deliveries, while wheat and corn futures scratched out small gains. Trading volume was light for the day and the last day of the most recent heatw...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under pressure from a good crop, however, export duties decreased to allow at least some bullish movement on the domestic market. The global prices are relatively stable, and exporters cannot afford to offer a m...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Adjust to New Paradigm; Feeder Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Nears Support
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with soybeans surging early on the hot, dry conditions last week and forecast for this week, with an added boost from a sub-50 BPA ProFarmer yield estimate. Corn followed soybeans higher but ran into resistance just shy of $5 that stalled the day’s pro...
Market Commentary: Lots of Mixed Messages
You are reading this report to better understand the issue of risk. This might make you unusual since the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center reports that respondents to its surveys show only 35 percent answer questions correctly about the topic. Then again, it is a tricky subject. Even...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Heat, Russian Attacks
The CBOT was higher to start the day after Russia attacked more Ukrainian export and grain infrastructure in Odesa and the country’s Danube River ports. That rally was extended during the day session as the blistering hot weather over the U.S. Midwest prompted traders to add back weather...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under the pressure of a good crop, higher freight rates, and ever-growing export duties. Since most of the pricing in country is based on the export marketplace in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, some regions are af...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Ukraine Starts Export Corridor; Soy Rallies on Scorching Forecast
The U.S. weather was just as hot and dry over the weekend as expected and this week’s outlook is unchanged with scorching temperatures predicted for most of the Midwest and Plains. You wouldn’t know it from futures’ price action on Monday, however, as corn and wheat futures pl...
Market Commentary: Midwest and CBOT Heat Up; Hog Rally Eases Discount; Cattle Supplies Tighten
The CBOT was almost uniformly higher to end the week as crop markets are increasingly concerned about the coming two-week weather forecast. The next week will be extremely hot and dry for the Midwest and corn and soybean yields are likely to take a hit. Just how hard-hit they will be remains th...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms on Russian Attacks, Extreme Midwest Temps
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday with another Russian attack on Ukraine’s Danube River ports and a hot, dry weather forecast for the Midwest offering support. Corn, soybeans, and KCBT wheat bounced higher off technical support while the CBOT wheat market traded either side of unchanged...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 August 2023 The Russian grain market was not following one clear trend. Partly because of the geographical spread of the country, but global factors also effect Russian markets and especially the latest developments in the Black Sea. The market is very se...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Focus on Weather, Carryout; Wheat Rebounds from Major Support
The CBOT found a bit of strength following a generally bearish August WASDE with soybeans playing the role of upside leader on a newly hot, dry two-week Midwest forecast. Moreover, the WASDE pointed to tight U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 and traders seemed to focus a bit more on that t...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
Market Commentary: U.S. Weather Shifts Again; WASDE Expectations; Ethanol Margins Climb
The CBOT was mixed at midweek with pre-WASDE positioning once again driving much of the day’s activity. Corn attempted to rally on short covering and continued strength in Dalian futures, but rallies were again capped above $5 by selling pressure. Soybeans and soyoil managed to squeeze ou...
Trade Without Industry; Content Moderation; Shipless Black Sea
Trade Without Industry If the Biden Administration were doing industry’s bidding, it would be negotiating trade agreements with real increases in market access. However, the lack of market access talks did not prevent Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Washington) from repeating the usual complaint...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 July–4 August 2023 The Russian grain market was predominantly bearish except for corn and rye. Weak domestic currency remains one of the major factors. You would think that with higher global prices, export prices in Russian seaports and riverports would fo...
Market Commentary: Certainties No Longer Certain; Corn, Soy Lower on Midwest Rains
Wheat futures rallied to start the week on increasing conflict in the Black Sea with Ukraine targeting Russian ocean vessels and adding new uncertainties to the region’s grain trade abilities. Wheat was only the first of two major ag markets (lean hogs being the other) to end the day high...
European Market Analysis
Regional News India is reportedly considering importing as much as 9 MMT of wheat from Russia to fill its domestic needs, but WPI sources continue to suggest the actual figure is likely to be 4-5 MMT. The Ukrainian Grain Association increased its forecast of the country’s grai...
Market Commentary: No Gapping Day
When the close is not too far off the open, the trading range is small and the volume is light, the price must be right. Markets continued their quotidian march generally lower but in a modest way. This no doubt reflects a weather forecast that spells recovery from an otherwise dis...
Market Commentary: Weather in the Driver’s Seat; CBOT Falls Despite More Danube Attacks
August has so far not been very kind to commodity markets, though it’s not as much the month’s fault as it is the fault of improved weather forecasts. CBOT futures were sharply lower on Wednesday and the mid-week weakness came despite another Russian attack on Ukrainian grain infras...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 July 2023 The Russian grain market was predominantly bullish and a big reason was the bombing of Ukrainian Black Sea and Danube ports followed by the Africa-Russia summit in St. Petersburg where Russia was testing the future of grain trading globally in...
Market Commentary: Rain Forecasts Trump Conditions; Soyoil Stocks Tighten; Spread Dynamics
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and wheat ending lower on continued fund selling amid bearish supply and demand prospectives, respectively. The soy complex edged slightly higher in a mile correction from Monday’s drubbing and despite forecasts of favorable Midwest rains and weathe...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sheds Weather Premium on Forecasts of Midwest Rains
Weekend weather model runs continued to show beneficial rains for the Midwest and Plains over the next two weeks with more moderate temperatures. The forecast comes just as the corn crop finishes pollinating and enters peak kernel fill while the soybean crop will enter its key yield-defining pe...
Market Commentary: Weather Rally Fades but Upside Risks Remain
The CBOT continued to drift lower on Friday with the fireworks from the rallies Monday and Tuesday fading on profit taking and more aggressive short selling. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal were all lower to end the week with soyoil and livestock the only bright spots among the major ag comm...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Lower on Rains, Yield Estimates
Rain across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday helped push the CBOT lower with wheat leading the way. Nothing has changed about the near-term forecast, which remains scorching hot and mostly dry across the Southern Plains and Corn Belt, but the 6-10-day forecast is mixed with be...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 July 2023 Russian farmers continue harvesting winter crops and the progress is quite good with grain crop forecasts totaling 134.5 MMT of which 86.5 MMT is wheat. Local analysts increased the forecast. The worst-case scenario is 123.5 MMT of grains with...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Doesn’t Change Bullish Backdrop
Bull markets need to be constantly “fed” with news and when that feeding slows or lapses, the rally does too. That’s largely what happened at the CBOT on Tuesday with a quiet day for fundamental news allowing markets to pull back with mild profit taking and slight corrective p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is facing continued daily power cuts as the very high temperatures have increased electricity demand. Egypt does have sufficient electricity production but the reduction in fuel to the plants has caused gene...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Danube Export Doubts
Monday’s trade was all about the weekend, which was hot and dry in the U.S. Midwest and featured more attacks by Russia on Ukrainian infrastructure. That alone would have been enough to send markets into rally mode, but it was coupled with a third bullish factor – an extremely hot a...
Market Commentary: Improved August Weather Forecast Prompts Profit Taking
The CBOT pulled back heading into the weekend on profit taking and NOAA’s new August weather forecast that shows more moderate temperatures and normal rains for most of the Corn Belt and Midwest. While any forecast longer than 10-days has been highly inaccurate this summer, the latest gui...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Pause Temporarily; Cattle Post Bearish Reversal before Report
The CBOT’s weather- and Black Sea-conflict induced rally took a break on Thursday with traders reassessing both global export market conditions and the U.S. weather forecast. There is a growing sense that the immediate impacts of the Black Sea grain export corridor’s expiration have...
Black Sea Grain Initiative: One and Done?
The uncertainty that Russia’s invasion has brought to agricultural markets continues. Roughly 32.9 MMT of grain has been exported from Ukraine since the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) began in July 2022. Russia refused to extend it Monday, siting the continued sanctions that target Rus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 July 2023 The Russian grain market was driven purely by a weak RUB which was registered from the beginning of the month. Even though the reference price dropped, the government increased the export duty for wheat probably speculating that prices will gro...
Market Commentary: Weather Drives CBOT Higher Desptie Improved Crop Conditions
Yesterday’s Corp Conditions report from USDA reflected the positive impact recent precipitation has had on crops, with conditions for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat all rebounding. That, as expected, pressured markets overnight but that weakness was short-lived as new weather threats co...
Market Commentary: Russia Leaves Black Sea Deal; Grains Lower After Two-Sided Trade
The CBOT started the day with a higher tone after Russia confirmed that it will be leaving the Black Sea export corridor agreement, which ended Monday, 17 July. The markets followed a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trading pattern and ended lower after fears of grain supply...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 2,262 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. Foreign corn ending stocks are virtually unchanged relative to last month. Global corn stocks are up 0.1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 July 2023 The first week of the new marketing year is gone and the market is under severe pressure due to carryover, slower exports, and multinational traders leaving the market. Farmers are not in a hurry to dump their grains at lower prices especially wi...
Market Commentary: Russian Port Attacks Send Wheat Higher; Markets Firm Ahead of WASDE
Wheat futures led the CBOT higher heading into the July WASDE after Russia launched 22 drones overnight at Ukraine’s Odesa grain terminal. Ukraine’s air defenses defeated all the drones, but two hit administrative buildings and debris from downed drones started two fires at port ter...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Short Covering Lifts Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Lower on Weak Demand
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with all eyes now solidly focused on Wednesday’s WASDE report. Corn and soybeans strengthened in early trade due to weekend rains that missed the western Corn Belt and northern Plains as well as short covering heading into the WASDE report. Wheat futur...
Geopolitical Issues in Fertilizer Markets
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the longest serving premier in the Netherlands and the second longest serving head of government in the EU, will be stepping down – and as he announced – leaving politics after an early election is called, probably for October or November. Rutt...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Russia/Ukraine conflict has again taken on an increased importance for commodity markets. Ukraine last week accused Russia of mining the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and both countries are accusing the other of planning attacks on the facility. Any event at the plant i...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 June 2023 Russian Grain Union is estimating the Russian grain crop at 130-140 MMT and export potential at 55 MMT. The Union is not expecting a record crop again and is estimating a 10 percent decline. A pessimistic scenario discussed by some domestic ana...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 June 2023 Russian analysts cut previous grain production forecasts by 2.3 MMT – down to 134 MMT - due to weather conditions, especially in Siberia and Volga Valley. The wheat production forecast dropped from 88 MMT to 86.8 MMT, barley forecast from...
Market Commentary: Correction on a Glimmer of Hope
Generally, the higher they rise the harder they fall but today’s correction on a still murky weather report ended with some restraint from going completely overboard. This crop has been damaged and as today’s Drought Monitor map reinforces, it is getting damaged further. It w...
Market Commentary: EPA Volumes Sink Soyoil; Grains Rally on Crop Conditions
Just one day after this analyst wrote that grain futures were likely to take a break from their rally amid overbought technical conditions, futures extended their rallies based on worsening U.S. crop conditions. The USDA’s crop conditions data yesterday was bullish corn, soybeans, and spr...
Sinking Ships
Russia says it expects the Black Sea grain corridor agreement to end on 18 July, though it is willing to keep talking. The Russian deputy foreign minister said that even if the agreement with the UN for Ukrainian grain shipments end, Moscow expects its agreement for exporting Russian grain to c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 June 2023 According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, as of 5 June, total acreage of spring grains and legumes planted reached 29 Mha including: wheat – 13.5 Mha, barley – 7 Mha, corn – 2.5 Mha, and rice – 159,400 ha. ...
Market Commentary: A Pause Amid the Weather Market Storm
Last week’s CBOT trade rightly featured significant rallies as the U.S. weather forecast remains stubbornly hot and dry in both near- and long-term forecasts but today’s trade featured a pause amid the drought-concern rally. Futures were somewhat overextended after last week’s...
Black Sea Situation
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 June 2023 The second week of June remained bearish with the fundamental factors remaining the same: lower export duty, weak RUB, high stocks, and low export demand in the Black Sea. Bearish factors prevail, especially high stocks which are pushing...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 May – 2 June 2023 Russian farmers are in the final stage of spring planting. Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of early June, 50.7 Mha were planted which is 92 percent of the forecast. A year ago, the planted area was 49.1 Mha. Spring grains...
Market Commentary: Stirred but Unshaken
There was a lot of input coming at the market today, but the only significant movements came in corn and soyoil. First up was news that the Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric plant on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine was destroyed. Early word was that farmland was flooded but the reaction...
Market Commentary: Mixed Bag
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. It was a modest volume day with trading initially unclear about what direction to take. Corn opened higher, traded both sides but ended down. Soybeans traded both sides but ended lower. Wheat moved higher and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22 – 26 May 2023 Russian farmers continue their spring planting campaign. The Minister of Agriculture reports that around 33.2 Mha have been planted out of the 57 Mha scheduled. Also, 93 percent of winter crops are in good condition but in certain areas winter...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15 – 19 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish. Russia’s position during negotiations of the UN grain corridor extension was not particularly strong and all sentiments were in favor of an extension, even if only for sixty days. Export dut...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European weather is shifting more favorably for crop development over the next week with cooler-than-normal temperatures predicted and rains for the southern portion of the continent. The rains will notably include southern Spain, Italy, the Balkans, and parts of Bulgari...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Renewed; Fund Selling Hammers CBOT
The CBOT feature one-direction trade at mid-week – lower – with funds continuing to rapidly exit long positions in the grain markets and/or pile into newly profitable short positions. While technical/fund selling drove most of the day’s price action, bearish fundamental factor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8 – 12 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish with the volume of trade miniscule because of traditional May holidays in Russia. A parade in Moscow was held irrespective of the weather or geopolitical situation giving the Russian people another...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Plunge Lower; Corn Tests $5 Again; Wheat Mixed on Varied Outlook
Weak macroeconomic markets and good planting progress in Monday’s Crop Progress report sent the CBOT sharply lower on Tuesday. Corn and soybeans led the way lower with oilseed breaking technical support in early trade and subsequently falling 25-36 cents by the closing bell. Weakness in s...
Market Commentary: A Story of Mixed Proportions
It might be called pre-positioning ahead of tomorrow’s USDA May WASDE report, but it looked like more of the same. Corn and wheat took their dings, but soybeans and meal were immune. The trend is down, and this week of trading has reinforced that dynamic. But it isn’t an exuberant a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 1–5 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remain bearish. Russia is struggling with low prices for grains for domestic farmers and is not receiving sufficient revenue through export duties. Moreover, 1–9 May was a holiday season in Russia mak...
Market Commentary: HRW Wheat Rally Continues While Corn, Soybeans Await WASDE
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly focused on positioning for the May WASDE report that USDA will release on Friday. That meant relatively quiet trade in corn and the soy complex where early rallies met selling pressure that knocked contracts off their highs for the...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission has places restrictions on the import of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed into five member states (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) through 5 June 2023 to ease supply issues and local price depressions. The ruling allows...
Market Commentary: Mid-Session Reversal Except for New Crop
Corn, wheat, and soybeans traveled in the red for much of the morning trading before wheat turned higher and old crop corn and soybean contracts reversed losses. No doubt weighing on wheat is tensions with Russia, the crops top global supplier, while economic uncertainty keeps animal proteins s...
Market Commentary: Kremlin Drone Story Sparks CBOT Short-Covering Rally
The war in Ukraine continues to be a major influence for the CBOT trade with Russia’s overnight claims it shot down two Ukrainian drones near the Kremlin offering support for ag futures on Wednesday. Russia has described the event as a foiled assassination attempt on President Putin but t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 24 – 28 April 2023 Russia’s grain market remained bearish. Across the country, grains lost value except for Siberia which is still stable and even slightly bullish. However, Siberia is not going to maintain better prices as overall trends bot...
Market Commentary: Crop Fundamentals Play Second Fiddle to Risk Adjustments
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday with any attempt at a rally quickly finding eager and sustained selling pressure. There was no real fundamental catalyst for the day’s selling from an agricultural perspective, rather the day’s weakness stemmed from widespread risk-off trade ami...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained predominantly bearish, but the bear is weaker and slower now. Trading is a tug of war with farmers keeping stocks and they are in no hurry to sell for less. Export duties will dictate the trends in the nea...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat as Ukraine Shipments Resume; Cattle Charts Turn Bearish
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the early week rally fading amid the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine and a favorable shift in the U.S. weather forecasts. Ship inspections in Ukraine’s Black Sea export corridor resumed Wednesday after a two-day halt that Kyiv blamed on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained unmistakably bearish; even RUB based trading indicators softened in the ports for all grains. While dollar FOB wheat prices remained almost unchanged for wheat, barley and corn quotations softened. The k...
Market Commentary: CBOT Pares Early Losses Amid Cool U.S. Weather Pattern, Black Sea Risks
The CBOT saw widespread two-sided trade on Tuesday with overnight gains fading quickly after the morning session opened. Markets eventually found a bid near mid-day, however, and corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat all settled higher for the day. Funds were slight net buyers in those three commod...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish the first week of April aligning with export duty behavior and local currency depreciation. For a few days prices remained stable thanks to domestic currency depreciation but the government was qui...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, with unchanged ending stocks. Corn imports are lowered 10 million bushels based on observed trade to date. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 5.275 bil...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for slightly higher supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised 5 million bushels on higher imports, based on the pace of Census imports reported to date. Domestic use is lo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 March 2023 International traders, after one full year of war in Ukraine, have finally made up their minds to leave Russia as the business environment in the country is probably one of the most unpredictable in the world. Bunge was one of the first larg...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023 The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory terms. Ukraine announced a 120-day extension while Russian officials claim the extension is only valid for another 60 days. The Russian sid...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there seems to be no agreement on the time period – 60 or 120 days. Even the UN announcement of the extension did not mention the time period...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Sinks Wheat; Markets Brace for Wednesday Fed Meeting
The CBOT started the week with some risk-off trade after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal to extend the Black Sea export corridor agreement over the weekend. The two countries are still arguing over the details of the agreement, but the major takeaway was that Ukraine can still ship grain in r...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Lack of Export Deal; Soybeans Fall Despite 25-MMT Argy Crop Prediction
Corn was the upside leader overnight with heavy volume kicking off Friday’s trade date. Three days of export sales to China plus rumors (that USDA confirmed later in the morning) of a fourth set of sales were bullish and helped put funds and commercials in a buying mood. Wheat futures con...
Market Commentary: Livestock Markets Collapse on Economic Risks; Grains Grind Higher
Bank liquidity issues and collapses remain at the forefront of the market’s collective mind with investors increasingly looking for safe-haven assets and “risk off” trades. That has exerted some influence on the ag markets, with livestock futures being the primary recipient of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 March 2023 Grain markets lost all hope for any bullishness due to a global bearish mood, export duties, and the upcoming spring planting campaign which requires cash. The grain export potential of Russia this season is tremendous. Sanctions are n...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off SVB Shakiness
Except for the livestock markets, ag futures were broadly higher on Tuesday with investor and trader confidence returning after the weekend shock to the banking sector. While Monday’s trade was weaker and heavily influenced by the macro-market panic selling relating to the Silicon Valley...
Market Commentary: Macroeconomic Shockwaves Create CBOT Jitters
The CBOT’s trade on Monday was initially focused on the weekend failure of two major banks, a fact that sent shockwaves through the macroeconomic markets to start the week. The biggest impact was heightened volatility and a strong “risk off” mentality that initially impacted C...
WASDE Corn
CORN: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date. The season-average corn price is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks, at 296...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 February – 3 March 2023 Russian grain markets maintained previous price levels and in certain segments were even slightly bullish particularly in top grade milling wheat. Low quality milling wheat and feed wheat are abundant and have been bearish for...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 - 24 February 2023 Russia had one day off last week which was an Army Day. Although the business week was one day shorter it did not stop Russian grains, and especially wheat, from losing ground. With a record crop and winning several international tenders,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 - 17 February 2023 The Russian domestic grain market was unmistakably bearish. A large crop, increasing export duties, relatively stable domestic currency, and a slower export pace have all contributed. Of course, international sanctions were introduced, a...
Market Commentary: Argy Crop Ratings Worsen; CBOT Chops Sideways into Weekend
The CBOT posted a day of two-sided trade on Friday to end a week of choppy, two-sided trade. With the three-day weekend coming up, few traders were interested in extending positions or adding risk to portfolios, which limited trading volume and price action. Additionally, there was little fresh...
Market Commentary: Exhausting the Angst
Markets trade on fundamentals and right now is the equivalent of being an ebb tide. It is a shift from angst over supply-reducing weather in South America to the bearish awe of watching its production come to market. What happens during the ebb tide is very low volume, the sole exception today...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 - 10 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained relatively stable. Feed wheat remains more expensive than barley, corn trading is animated and is slightly bullish on the domestic market but the key driver for corn demand is the export market. Exp...
WASDE Corn
USDA projected lower U.S. corn use for ethanol and larger ending stocks. U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, wit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 January - 3 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable. The only commodity which slightly recovered is barley, but this is the exception rather than the rule. It is a record crop in Russia this season. Corn is under pressure from Ukrainia...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 -27 January 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable and slightly bearish. The feature of the week was feed barley equaling feed wheat in price. Corn slightly depreciated under pressure from Ukraine which has been exporting massive amounts of th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt has reportedly secured a long-term contract with Germany to buy wheat from the European nation, though details on the agreement are sparse. Russia’s total wheat planted area for 2023 is projected to reach 29.05 Mha, down from 29.468 Mha seeded in 2022. Roma...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 - 20 January 2023 Grain prices remained relatively stable and are most likely to remain stable in the near term. The key factor creating such a “lazy” market is a record high grain crop. Farmers realize that exports are slow and domestic miller...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 - 13 January 2023 The Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) has adjusted preliminary crop size numbers for the 2022 crop. Overall, grain production numbers were adjusted upwards reaching 153.83 MMT versus the previous 150.985 MMT. Wheat production was adjuste...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA reduced U.S. corn production to 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.6 million acre cut to harvested area. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, an...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. Wo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 - 6 January 2023 With a historic grain crop and the upcoming Russian Orthodox Christmas holidays, traders seem to have taken a winter break which may last the first two first weeks of January rather than one week because in Russia the old new year is celebr...
Market Commentary: Volatile Trade for Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Falls on European Weakness
Trading at the CBOT was active on Tuesday with most major markets scoring wide ranges but ending well away from the day’s extremes. Wheat futures plunged lower amid weakness from the European markets but pared losses heading into the close while corn and soybeans backed away from their da...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Germany’s winter wheat area is estimated at 2.8 Mha for 2023/24, down 1.9 percent. Winter barley was seeded across 1.3 Mha this year, a 5.1 percent increase. Ukrainian officials are citing concern for the hardiness of winter crops (most notably wheat) as an unusually w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 - 23 December 2022 Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced a record year-end grain production of 159.5 MMT in bunker weight which is up 32.6 MMT from 2021. The Ministry forecasts the final grain production number after dockage at 150 MMT with wheat produ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 – 16 December 2022 Russian grain markets remain bearish with many factors putting pressure on the market including but not limited to export duties, a relatively strong local currency, a record crop, and competition with Ukrainian wheat and corn in t...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rise on Bull Spreading; Corn, Wheat Drift Lower in Light Volume
The CBOT traded a quiet day at mid-week with corn and wheat pushing lower and bull spreading developing in soybeans and soymeal. The soy complex remains the hot market for now with soymeal holding just below recent contract highs and commercials still buying, as evidenced by the spread trade. C...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 - 9 December 2022 Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia is revamping its positions on grains and oilseeds markets thanks to a record crop, high demand for wheat, and other agricultural commodities. Sanctions, increased insurance, and war risks have had...
WASDE Corn
U.S. domestic corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels due to slow sales. As a result, corn ending stocks are raised 75 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.70 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Foreign cor...
Market Commentary: USDA Cuts Corn Exports; Argy Wheat Crop Falls to 12.5 MMT; Cattle Take Back Early Losses
The December WASDE made few changes to its outlook for the world grain supply and demand situation, which left the CBOT to essentially continue its existing trends. Wheat futures sold off 10-12 cents lower and soyoil joined the weakness and broke a major technical support zone. Soymeal continue...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 Novermber – 2 December 2022 With the UN humanitarian corridor back in place, Russia is reportedly procrastinating with inspections in the Black Sea thus creating a line of international vessels in the Bosporus straight. This is causing Ukraine and the world probl...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 November 2022 The feature of the week remains the same – extension of the UN humanitarian Black Sea corridor under UN auspices with Turkey being the guarantor of the transaction. While Ukrainians are complaining about terrible delays with Russian inspections a...
Market Commentary: Soy Rally Continues; Wheat, Corn Drift Lower; House Moves to Preempt Rail Strike
The CBOT largely continued its prior trends on Tuesday with soybeans adding to Monday’s rally despite a pullback in soyoil. Corn chopped sideways again and stayed within the range that has defined its trade for the past thirteen trading days. SRW wheat bounced higher as funds took a brief...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 November 2022 Russia continues to harvest a record crop - over 150 MMT currently. Even more interesting are current Russian stocks and carryover. Russian Statistics Agency reported that as of 1 November, Russia’s grain stocks are 42.6 MMT, up 31 percent from 2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 November 2022 Planting Update Russia’s winter crop is planted, however, due to adverse weather conditions farmers failed to plant about 1 Mha showing only 17.5 Mha versus 18.1 Mha a year ago. In addition to poor weather conditions, farmers who realized Russia h...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 October - 4 November 2022 Russia’s grain harvest continues and has set a record of 150 MMT. Russia’s wheat belt, Krasnodar area, also set a new wheat production record of 10.7 MMT. The Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 7 November, Russia produced...
Market Commentary: Russia Taketh and Russia Giveth; But Volatility Remains
What Russia taketh away, Russia apparently giveth back. Just three days after leaving the Ukraine export corridor deal, Russia reversed its weekend decision and re-joined the export agreement. Apparently, President Putin made the decision and agreed to cooperate with the UN, Turkey, and (to a f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24-28 October 2022 Planting Update Winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest in the past five years. As of 31 October, winter crops were planted over 16.3 Mha which is 85 percent of the forecast and about 2 Mha behind past year. It is already cle...
Market Commentary: Russia Exits Ukraine Export Deal, Wheat Rallies 50 Cents, Corn, Soy Follow
Russian officials announced over the weekend that the country will end its participation in the so-called “export corridor deal” made between the U.N., Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia. The move was in response to weekend drone strikes on a Russian vessel in a Crimean port, which Russia...
European Market Analysis
Ukraine Export Corridor Update The biggest news in European and Black Sea grain markets this week is Russia’s announcement that it will exit the UN/Ukraine/Russia grain “export corridor” deal effective immediately. WPI and other analysts had long suspected Russia would not ren...
Market Commentary: Consensus in Play
After four days of trading this week and thousands of contracts trading hands, as of today’s close, corn is down 0.292 percent, soybeans are down 0.949 percent, and wheat has lost 1.4 percent. And it could all zero out by tomorrow’s close. With little new to factor in, markets are t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 October 2022 Planting Update Russian winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest for the past five years. As of 21 October, winter crops were planted over 15.8 Mha which is 83.2 percent of the forecast and around 2 Mha behind last year. Centr...
Market Commentary: Not Pretty
Though they closed higher, volume was down in corn and soybeans and wheat shaved off some more excess value. The truth is there is just not much to move the market right now. The lower value of the dollar plus rising equities and oil provides some outside support but the fundamentals are stable...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 October 2022 Winter Crop Planting Russian winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest in the last five years. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for Russia this fall. Expected acreage of winter crops may be as low as 16.5 Mha dropping by...
Market Commentary: Livestock Rallies Continue; Grains End Lower on Fund Selling
The CBOT pulled back again on Tuesday with only soyoil and the livestock contracts finding their way to higher ground. Funds continued to liquidate their net long positions in corn and soybeans while extending a short SRW wheat position. Fundamental news that hit the wires Tuesday seemed to all...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends on Down Note After Export Sales Disappoint
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week with corn, soybeans, wheat, and both cattle contracts all posting losses by the closing bell. The only real gainer was the lean hog market, where futures rallied to triple-digit gains on relative strength in the cash market. Trading volume was light acr...
Market Commentary: Makeup Call
What could go right? The stock market and commodity futures both started the trading day glumly observing certain fundamentals: U.S. core inflation in September at 6.6 percent had hit a four-decade high; CPI was at 8.2 percent. It is now sealed that next month the Fed will add another growth s...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. corn production to 13.895 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduction in yield to 171.9 bushels per acre. Exports are lowered 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2022/23 are...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. wheat production based by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million. However, first quarter total disappearance is the lowest since 1983/84 - wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 October 2022 Russian winter crop planting is behind schedule at only around 50 percent of the forecast and 1 Mha behind last year at the end of September. The Ministry of Agriculture already forecasts next spring planting to reach 82.2 Mha which is up 200,000 ha. The...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 30 September wheat production showed 101.9 MMT of bunker weight wheat versus 74.5 MMT a year ago. The average wheat yield increased from 2.81 MT/ha to 3.61 MT/ha. Harvesting was complete on 28.2...
Market Commentary: Holding Pattern
Two-sided, narrow trading continues as uncertainty competes with certainty over where true value is headed. In an almost hands off manner, soybeans failed to trade at its usual 25-cent minimum daily spread, and corn barely broke a 10-cent range. There is plenty of macro suspense – the Rus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 22 September wheat production was 99.9 MMT of bunker weight wheat versus 72.9 MMT a year ago. The average wheat yield increased from 2.8 MT/ha to 3.6 MT/ha. Harvesting has been completed on 27.4...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 September 2022 As of 15 September, Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 132.3 MMT versus 99.4 MMT a year ago, of which 96.4 MMT is wheat in bunker weight, 23 MMT is barley, and 780,800 MT is corn. These numbers are t...
Market Commentary: Russia’s Annexation Effort Creates Turnaround Tuesday at CBOT
The CBOT rallied sharply on Tuesday with Russia’s actions in Ukraine again at the forefront of the market’s mind. Russia is trying to annex four parts of Ukraine this week and implications that it is building troop reserves and resources suggest no peaceful end to the war is coming...
Market Commentary: Wheat Grinds Higher on Uncertain Ukraine Export Outlook; Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week amid a general lack of fresh news. Corn and soybeans both drifted lower in quiet trade and extended Tuesday’s pullback and reversal, respectively. Wheat futures pushed higher as the Ukraine export corridor agreement remains in jeopardy while U.S. basis level...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 September 2022 As of 7 September, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 125 MMT of which 88.2 MMT is wheat, 21.2 MMT is barley, and 35,000 MT corn (the corn harvest has just started). These numbers are the weight co...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed After Dollar Rallies on Inflation Data
With the September WASDE now past, the CBOT largely entered consolidation mode on Tuesday with a renewed focus on weather as yields are finalized, export demand, and, of yeah, inflation. August inflation was down from July but above expectations, which threw macroeconomic markets into a tizzy a...
Russia Ignores Fungability
Russia is complaining that Ukraine’s grain exports are not going to poor countries, undermining the intent of the grain corridor agreement. There is the threat to undue or rewrite that agreement. More than 2 million tons of grain have been shipped over the last five weeks and while not al...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: August–2 September 2022 Grain markets were volatile. While global markets remain bullish, Russian traders are still speculating and expecting a bigger bear. This, of course, is possible at the early stage of the game and especially with a forecast for a record crop...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Dry Weather; Argentine “Soy Dollar” Pressures Soy Complex
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with a weekend of dry weather offering support to the corn market and sparking a 10-cent rally in that commodity. Conversely, soybean futures were under pressure from Argentina’s now-confirmed “soy dollar” that is intended to increase farme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Sri Lanka’s Minister of Trade says there is no reason for wheat flour prices to increase as the local supply is good and more milling wheat is expected from Dubai and Turkey. Sri Lanka is forecast, by USDA-F...
Market Commentary: Bearish Pressures
The markets opened lower and then turned deeper red as the session wore on. Much of the pressure was from outside markets, plus caution ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Soymeal and livestock managed higher closes but the rest saw losses. For the first four days of this trading week...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower on Economic Worries while Wheat Makes Seasonal Gains
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures continuing their slow rally while soybeans and soymeal continue to fall, despite fresh soybean export sales news. Soyoil managed to post a strong gain for the day, which was all the more impressive as it came with a 3 percent decline in crude o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues with grain production, as of 25 August, at 78.9 MMT which is up 24.8 percent from last year (63.2 MMT). Overall grains and legumes were harvested from 27.6 Mha averaging 3.82 MT/ha producing 105.2 MMT of grains. Rus...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat End Lower in Turnaround Tuesday; Livestock Futures Rally on Technical Buying
After starting the week on a high note, the CBOT posted a “turnaround Tuesday” with corn and wheat giving back much of Monday’s gains. The soy complex posted a second consecutive day lower but pared losses in the afternoon to end fractionally lower. The initial shock of the Pr...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Yield Concerns; Wheat Surges 30 Cents on Ukrainian Offensive
CBOT grain markets were higher to start the week while the soy complex drifted lower amid little fresh news and a lack of international buying interest. Corn received support from follow-through buying based on last week’s ProFarmer yield estimates as well as additional reports of poor co...
Market Commentary: Backtracking
After a run up in recent days over drought in the U.S., bad news from a major crop tour, plus drought in Europe and China, there was profit taking today as the domestic weather outlook improves and the Black Sea becomes more active. There was uncertainty at the open as corn, soyoil and HRS show...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 15-19 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues. As of 11 August, grain production showed 75.5 MMT harvested, which is up 600,000 MT from last year. The total area harvested is 18.1 Mha, which is 6.5 Mha behind last year. Specifically, wheat was harvested from 1...
Market Commentary: Wheat Down Again; Rest Rangebound
Weather and Ukraine remain bearish factors in agricultural markets. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited Ukraine today and highlighted that 21 ships have departed Ukrainian ports less than a month after signing the access deal, and 15 vessels are in transit for Ukraine to load more gra...
Russian Wheat Price Moves Lower
The consultancy Sovecon this week increased its estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 94.7 MMT. That is 7.6 percent more than USDA's guess at 88 MMT and if realized, it would be nearly 20 MMT larger than Russia’s 2021/22 wheat crop. An astounding level of increase. By contrast, the consul...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 August 2022 The harvest in Russia continues. Some areas in the south are entering the final stage and producing a record crop. Rostov on Don area, the wheat belt of Russia, is boasting a 14.5 MMT crop from 3.35 Mha of which 2.9 Mha was winter wheat. This is a record...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA forecast U.S. corn production for 2022/23 at 14.4 billion bushels, down 146 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.4 bushels per acre, is 1.6 bushels below last month’s projection. The primary reason...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all-wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bus...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Surprises and Questions Linger Going Forward
The CBOT was strictly focused on the August WASE in Friday’s trade. Price action before the USDA’s noon report featured quiet, weaker spread trade and wheat fell 11-17 cents while corn and soybean futures pushed higher. The report itself was within the range of pre-report estimates,...
Market Commentary: Pre-Report Positioning
In the last full trading day before the August WASDE is released, traders reaffirmed their belief that USDA will be marking yields lower on adverse weather impacts. The expected declines are modest: corn down 1.2 percent to 173.6 bushels/acre, soybeans lower by 0.9 percent to 51 bushels/acre, a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 August 2022 Russia’s harvest campaign continues. As of the first week of August, reports show 56.5 MMT of grains harvested which is 8 MMT behind last year. Grains and legumes are harvested from 13.3 Mha which is 7 Mha behind last year at this time. Yields are mu...
Market Commentary: Weather Outlook Supports Corn; USDA Confirms China Soy Buying; Cattle and Hogs Rally on Packer Demand
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat remaining under pressure from Ukraine’s slow but growing grain export program and from the large Russian crop. Corn managed to push higher for the day on a hot, dry weekend forecast for the Plains and western Corn Belt as well as a dry outlook...
Market Commentary: Small Rebound
The trading session opened kind of sluggish, not even meeting the overnight closes. There was uncertainty in grains and oilseeds, though not in livestock since it opened lower. Soybeans surged first, with corn following and wheat getting the hint about two hours into the day. The market remains...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 – 29 July 2022 Russia’s harvesting campaign continues. The latest forecast for wheat production in Russia is 90 MMT. Wheat exports are expected to beat all previous records and may exceed 42.5 MMT with overall grain exports estimated at 55.4 MMT. However, m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Lebanon is scheduled to receive the first shipment of wheat from Ukraine’s Odessa port – the M/V Razani is reported to have sailed from Odessa with about 26,000 MT of wheat. The vessel will stop in Ist...
Market Commentary: Markets Fall on Ukraine Grain Exports; U.S. Crop Conditions Exceed Expectations
The day’s big news – as WPI readers will likely already know – was that a vessel carrying Ukrainian corn left the Black Sea this morning destined for Lebanon. This is the first maritime export of grain since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and suggests near-term world...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Perhaps the biggest news in the world – and especially Black Sea – grain markets is Monday’s shipment of 26 KMT of corn from Ukraine via the Black Sea. This is the first sea-based export of grain by Ukraine since Russia invaded the country in February 2022...
Market Commentary: Weekly Gains but Rough Day for Wheat
It was a week of big gains for corn and soybeans, and wheat as well, but today put a damper on it. Wheat, like corn and soybeans came out of the chute this morning following on the double digit close in the overnight market. But wheat may have been buffeted (corn too) by speculation on whether...
Market Commentary: Trend is Your Friend
It was another mostly green day in agricultural futures, lending credence to the saying that the trend is your friend. Macro markets offered new variables but for ags it was more of the same old same old. The direction was mostly set out of the box with several opening bids outrunning the overn...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Leads Soy Complex Higher; Spring Wheat Yields Pressure Futures
The CBOT was mixed in light-volume trading at mid-week with most of the market’s attention focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve and its interest rate decision. The Fed raised its target interest rate by 75 bps as expected and reassured of its commitment to return inflation to near 2 percen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 July 2022 The major development was without a doubt the UN Agreement unblocking Ukrainian ports followed by Russian missiles bombing Odessa port. The agreement was made to help the world with food and to stabilize prices. That’s why the UN was involved in this...
Market Commentary: Weather Premium
In an otherwise benign market situation, there were solid gains today in the grain and oilseed pits. This was in part out of a recognition that U.S. crop ratings are declining, and more unhelpful weather is on the way. It didn’t help that Russia first bombed port structures in Odess...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Russia Blows Up Export Deal - Again
The CBOT was sharply higher after Friday’s agreement between Russia and Ukraine regarding a grain export corridor in the Black Sea was blown up – literally – one day later by Russian shelling of the Port of Odessa. The export agreement pressured futures on Friday and the weeke...
Market Commentary: Deal with the Devil
The announced deal with Russia was a major force on the market today. The quad (Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, the UN) signed an agreement providing a possible pathway for Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports. The deal means that 22 MMT Ukrainian grain and oilseeds could be exported via the Black Sea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 July 2022 While the world is watching several rounds of negotiations focused on unblocking Ukrainian Black Sea ports, Russia continues exporting grain on business-as-usual terms predominantly to “friendly” countries including Iran, Egypt, Turkey, Syria,...
Market Commentary: CBOT Moves Lower After WCB Rain Forecast; Packer Margins Worrying for Cattle, Hogs
The CBOT gave back most of Monday’s gains after U.S. weather forecasts shifted to feature more scattered showers for the western Corn Belt. Along with the more favorable weather outlook, USDA’s Crop Conditions report yesterday was better than expected for corn and soybeans, alleviat...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Hot, Dry Weather Forecast, Fund Short-Covering
The CBOT rallied to start the week on a combination of follow-through buying from Friday’s corn and soybean gains as well as a hot, dry forecast for the U.S. in the coming weeks. End-user and some commercial buying activity was noted for the day, but much of the volume was related to fund...
Market Commentary: CBOT Caps Volatile Week with Quiet Day; Weather Increasingly Important
After a week of stunning volatility, the CBOT ended Friday with quiet trade that saw summer row crops firm while the wheat selloff continued, though in muted fashion. The USDA’s July WASDE wasn’t exactly bearish, but funds are growing tired of holding commodities amid the lack of a...
Market Commentary: Continued Pressure from Macros
Few people like the big banks but they can set the mood and that is what happened with reports of earnings declining at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. The overall trend is down as outside markets trump the fundamentals in ags. One Bloomberg analyst concluded that commodities were never a good inv...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 4-8 July 2022 Russia’s harvest continues showing good results thus supporting an optimistic forecast for wheat production during the 2022/23 season which has just started. Rostov Oblast, which is one of the largest producers and exporters of wheat, is expecting a re...
WASDE Corn
Corn – USDA’s July estimate is for larger U.S. supplies and higher ending stocks. U.S. corn production is up 45 million bushels due to greater planted area in the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 177.0 bushels per acre. With no use changes, e...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA’s July estimate is for larger U.S. supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks: Supplies are raised on increased production, which is up 44 million bushels to 1,781 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields. The projected seaso...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Reversal Rally on Weather, Pre-WASDE Positioning
The CBOT rally that started on Wednesday continued into Friday as traders bought back short positions and added slight length to positions heading into the weekend. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to favor hotter, drier weather into August, which prompted most of this week’s recover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 27 June-1 July 2022 Russia continued harvesting grains and it seems like the 2022 crop will be very close to a record. Russian Grain Union is expecting 84 MMT of grains according to Akradiy Zlochevsky, the head of the Union. The most recent forecasts showed 122 MMT of gr...
Food Crisis in Mexico; No Easy End to War
Food Crisis in Mexico Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) visits President Joe Biden in the White House next month and farmers in Canada and the U.S. want a message conveyed – don’t do it. AMLO has pledged to ban GMO corn in 2024, he has already begun...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 20-24 June 2022 Russia launched harvesting in the Southern Federal District as well as in seized and annexed Ukrainian Crimea. Other temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, which include parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Lugansk, will be harvesting in a si...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday; Weather Now Secondary to USDA Reports
The CBOT posted a Turnaround Tuesday with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex pushing higher after the recent weakness. Soybeans and soymeal led the rally as spot demand for both commodities is rising and a 2+ percent rally in crude oil helped pull soyoil futures higher as well. Grains were...
Market Commentary: Technicals Are Breaking Down
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with a collapsing crude oil market and sharp selloffs in European commodity markets pressuring values. Tuesday’s Crop Progress report failed to offer much bullish influence for prices and new crop corn and soybeans pulled back. Wheat attempted to bou...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13-17 June 2022 Russia launched its harvesting campaign which pushed grain prices down, especially in the Southern Federal District. However, there are several factors to review on this market. Even though the first crop harvested is winter barley, all grains remained bea...
Market Commentary: Wheat Collapses on U.S. Dollar Rally; Soyoil, Soymeal Follow Technical Calls; Corn Tests $8
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week, but hints of strength were found in key markets. Specifically, July corn futures, while posting a loss for the day, managed to test $8 despite choppy, low-volume trade. The fact the corn market only settled 4 cents lower is notable given the massive me...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6-10 June 2022 Russian markets remained bearish, however the market where prices are formed – Black Sea export market – was more dead than alive. Export purchases are a gamble because of the unclear situation on the Ukrainian front. Azov and Black Sea ports tr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls as U.S. Dollar Rises; Soy Complex in Red Ahead of NOPA Report; U.S. to Build Grain Silos in Poland
The CBOT was lower again on Tuesday as fresh economic lockdowns in China and another day of selloffs in macroeconomic markets weighed on ag futures. The soy complex led the way lower with all three legs settling in the red amid fears of waning demand as China combats rising COVID-19 cases with...
Market Commentary: WASDE Sees Larger Corn, Wheat Stocks & Higher Soy Prices; Market Attention Turns to Weather
CBOT markets were mostly quiet and weaker overnight heading into the June WASDE report from USDA. The report was generally in-line with expectations, which left the markets to generally drift lower after its release. Notably, soybean futures posted larger declines than other markets, due to wea...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for increased ending stocks of U.S. corn by 40 million bushels. U.S. exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April and export inspection data for the month of May. Foreign corn ending st...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 30 May – 3 June 2022 Russian markets remained bearish, however in certain geographical areas prices were stagnant where sellers are playing a wait and see game. Interestingly, in Siberia wheat depreciated dramatically. In the export market, better margins are attra...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Higher on Spread Trade, Commercial Demand; Wheat Falls Ahead of Russia-Turkey Talks
Non-Russia fundamentals were finally at the forefront of the CBOT on Tuesday with corn and soybean futures rallying on strong commercial demand and bull spreading. Wheat futures pulled back and posted 20-cent losses as Russia and Turkey prepare for what most (including WPI) expect to be unfruit...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rally as Russia Blows Up Hopes for Export Corridor
Over the weekend, Russia intensified its offensive in eastern Ukraine and bombed a Cargill-owned export facility in southern Ukraine. The export facility formerly shipped some 1 MMT of sunflower oil annually. The heightened attacks and export facility bombing cast serious doubt about Russia&rsq...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s spring planting has reached 13.182 Mha, 78 percent of the expected acreage. Of that, 4.553 Mha were sown to corn (83 percent of expectations) and 4.574 Mha were planted to sunflower seeds (70 percent of the expected area). South Korea’s POSCO Inte...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower as Ukraine Export Corridor Talks Continue; EPA Releases 2022 Biofuel Mandates
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week with cattle and soyoil the only major markets to post gains. China is on its Dragon Boat holiday, which kept markets quiet as few developments in the cash market were expected. USDA’s report of old crop corn sales to unknown destinations offered s...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday
After sharp losses earlier in the week, the market turned around today for everything but July corn. Egypt’s GASC paid a record sum for wheat, indicating prices will remain elevated and enabling a push higher today for futures. Ukraine says it continues to work with the UN and others to e...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Long Liquidation, Ukraine Export Rumors; Hogs Rally as Shanghai Ends Lockdowns
The CBOT attempted to stabilize overnight and in early-morning trade on Wednesday, but headlines from the Black Sea and persistent long liquidation pushed grains sharply lower for the second straight day. Soybeans found support from old and new crop export sales to China, but gains were limited...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 May 2022 Russian weather forecasting center chief Roman Wilfand is predicting a good grains and oilseeds crop this season. Cool temperatures in May are not critical as long as there is sufficient moisture in the soil. This season temperatures were mild and there wer...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 16-20 May 2022 As of 17 May, spring planting was in line with last year, yet still behind 2020 by 40 percent and 2019 by 30 percent, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Earlier in the season the government was trying to stabilize prices for inputs and banne...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a maximum of 12.25 percent as a measure to control inflation that has been complicated by the Russia/Ukraine “tensions” and relat...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally as Russia Rejects Ukrainian Export Corridors; U.S. Corn, Soy Planting Makes Strong Progress
CBOT grains posted slight gains for the day while the soy complex worked its way lower as traders unwound long grain/short soy spreads that were placed last week. Wheat moved higher on news that Russia will not allow the export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea unless NATO suspends its econo...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Parliament approved duty-free imports of agricultural products from Ukraine for a one-year period. The U.S. is reportedly considering lifting a ban in potassium fertilizer from Belarus if the country will allow the export of Ukrainian ag products through to Lith...
Market Commentary – Unsettled but Not Rudderless
Commodity traders should be grateful they are not equity traders. The broader economy presents less certainty than agricultural balance sheets that will take time to rebalance. Russia is trying to exploit food insecurity by offering to allow Ukrainian exports provided sanctions are dropped. Wes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 May 2022 Most businesses were closed from 1-9 May as Russians celebrated Soviet holidays. Trade has now resumed and there is a bearish mood on all fronts. Exporters decreased their interest in the Black Sea ports and local currency strengthened thus solidifying the b...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA’s outlook is that the U.S. corn crop will be 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3 percent from last year. The corn yield is projected at 177.0 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. The ve...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...
Jurisdictional Mayhem; War and Farm Policy; War and Food Inflation
Jurisdictional Mayhem According to the Constitution, the U.S. Congress has the power to regulate trade among the several states, but it does not have the obligation and there is confusion when it does not. The Supreme Court is being asked to intercede on behalf of pork producers who dislike Cal...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 May 2022 Russian grain traders have continued to decrease their bids in the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports which are now 100 percent controlled by Russia. All Ukrainian ports are blocked and vessels loaded earlier cannot move any further. However, the main reason behind...
Canadian Rescue?
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization says 25 MMT of exportable grain are stuck in Ukraine and threatening global food security. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says his government will work to help Ukraine export this grain, but the logistical hurdles are daunting. The first...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukrainian President Zelenskiy called on the international community to end the Russian blockade of Ukraine’s export ports to avoid “a food crisis in the world caused by Russia’s aggressive actions.” President Zelenskiy’s request is at odds with...
Market Commentary: Macro-market Weakness Pressures CBOT; Wheat, Corn Fundamentals Increasingly Bullish
The CBOT ended the week on a mixed note with the soy complex continuing its selloff with additional pressure from sharp losses in palm oil futures. Corn was pulled lower by the soybean weakness and from a much-improved weather outlook for the U.S. in the next two weeks. Wheat futures were the o...
Market Commentary: Cinco de Mayo was about Wheat
Action elsewhere was modest but there was large volume in the wheat pits with a second day in a row of strong closes. Corn and soybeans gained a few pennies but remain well off from their highs. USDA’s Export Sales report affirmed the demand for U.S. crops. Old crop wheat sales were high...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 25-29 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2022 grain crop at 123 MMT mostly due to an additional 1 Mha of planted area. Winter crops, which are planted over 19 Mha), are reportedly in good and satisfactory condition. Oilseeds are forec...
Wheat Predator to Protectionist
Back in January, U.S. wheat growers were demanding that USTR file a WTO case against India for exceeding its de minimis limit of subsidies capped at 10 percent of the value of wheat production. The demand was presaged by a U.S. government counternotification to the WTO that New Delhi had substa...
Market Commentary: Vegoils Crash on Export Ban Reality; U.S. Corn Planting Slowest Since 2013
The CBOT waivered near contract and all-time highs in various commodities on Monday with better weather forecasts in the U.S. offering pressure. Moreover, a slow realization that Indonesia won’t be able to maintain an export ban on palm oil sent soyoil futures 5 percent lower, a move whic...
Market Commentary: Vegoils Rally, Pull Soybeans Higher; Brazil Sees Driest April in 17 Years; Corn Firms on Export Rumors
U.S. farmers are being patient marketing old crop corn and soybean stocks amid ongoing weather concerns in the U.S. Cash soy crush margins are near record highs at $3/bushel, which is keeping basis firm and increasing competition between exporters and crushers. Brazilian weather trends ar...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that the first 3.5 Mha of spring crops have been planted out of 53.6 Mha forecast. This year’s planting pace is in line with past year’s and around 12 Mha of winter wheat has been fertilized. An est...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported expectations that spring crops will be planted on 81.3 Mha of land, an increase of 1 Mha from last year. Agriculture Minister Dmitriy Patrushev expects the crop to reach 123 MMT, with wheat accounting for 80 MM...
Dishonorable Food; Guantes Para Niños in Mexico; Build Back Never
Dishonorable Food Eddy Wax in Politico points out that Western agribusiness companies continue to operate in Russia despite the war on Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy characterizes the agribusiness companies continuing to supply Russia as “flooded with our blood.” B...
Black Sea Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-8 April 2022 During the first week of April, the Russian grain market was predominantly bearish especially on the export front. On the domestic side, the war with Russia in Ukraine, and therefore the expected increased domestic consumer demand, started to raise selling...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Despite Benign WASDE; Soyoil, Soybeans, Corn Post Technically Bullish Days
CBOT markets firmed heading into the April WASDE and continued their strength thereafter, despite a relatively benign USDA report. USDA stuck to its measured approach in estimating losses to South American soybean production as well as the Russia-Ukraine war. USDA’s policy is always to av...
Ukraine Miniseries - Part III - Russian Advantage
Owning the Passage Russia is still able and will be able to export commodities. Sanctions do not include food. No one will deny countries like Egypt access to cheaper wheat to feed their people. And many of the countries that have been buying Russian wheat and barley will continue to do so.&nbs...
Ukraine Miniseries: Part II
This is the second in a three-part series of reports from WPI’s analysts in Ukraine. This article involves their opinion of Ukrainian agriculture in the weeks ahead. Looking Inward Crop Substitution: Russia may not change its crop production focus for the upcoming campaign, but Ukrainian...
Great Power Struggle; Supply Response Needed; Pressuring Mexico
Great Power Struggle Deceased U.S. Senator John McCain called Russia a “gas station masquerading as a country” but it is also a major grocery store, especially when combined with Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is now threatening global energy, fertilizer, and food supplies. Rising prices f...
Ukraine Miniseries: Part I
This is the first of a three-part special series of reports from WPI’s analysts in Ukraine. The first installment looks at what the war’s impact on agriculture looks like at this juncture. The second article to be posted tomorrow focuses on the sector’s prospects for productio...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 March-1 April 2022 Last week the domestic market went bearish. Prices for staple grains plummeted to relatively traditional levels after recent historic highs. Bearish trends effected all types of wheat and peas. While barley and corn remained quite volatile, the trend...
Borscht Belt Economics
Borscht is considered comfort food in Russia and the cost to make it is reportedly rising. Bloomberg reports that since the start of the war, the cost of cabbage is up 16 percent and onion prices have risen by 18 percent. Based on FAO data, Russia produces 39.6 pounds per capita of cabbage but...
Market Commentary: CBOT Adds War-Risk Premium Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT rallied to start the week after news broke out this weekend of Russian shelling and bombardments of Ukrainian grain storage facilities and export ports near Odessa. Short-term worries center around grain losses and Ukraine’s ability to feed its population while long-term worries...
Ukraine Changes Agriculture; Ukraine Changes Economies; Ukraine Affects Trade Policy
Ukraine Changes Agriculture CoBank analysts say that the war in Ukraine will have long term impact on grain markets. Indeed, if one just considers the following list of policy actions that have occurred since the war broke out: At least 31 export bans have been imposed around the world on cere...
Oilseeds Highlights: Soybeans are King
The big news of the week is USDA’s Prospective Plantings report showing farmers plan to sow more acres to soybean than to corn. If that outcome is realized, it will only be the third time this has occurred in modern U.S. farming history. The long-term dominance is why it is known as King...
Ukrainian Grain and Oilseeds Market
Regional Update Ukraine: Planting According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of 24 March, in 11 regions of Ukraine, spring grains and oilseeds were planted on 150,000 ha out of 5.99 Mha planned (-1.689 Mha compared to the previous year). Specifically, spring wheat was planted on 22,500...
Market Commentary: Oil Slips on Shanghai Lockdown, Pressures Soy Complex; Traders Liquidate Risk Before Reports
Risk-off ahead of the Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports was the theme du jour. The soy complex and wheat futures led the CBOT lower with corn following on disappointing export inspections data. News that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are meeting in Turkey to discuss a cease fir...
Oilseeds Update – Machinations in a Tight Market
Production and Incentives Late planted soybeans in Argentina are filling pods and are still too dry. In Brazil, the soybean harvest is 69 percent completed. As a result of the war, Ukraine may only plant half the usual sunflowers and this exacerbates an already tight global oilseeds market.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Out of Steam
It was mostly a turnaround day as risk is priced in as much as desired and there were some bearish indicators: South America is getting moisture and has become competitive. Ukraine may still produce some grain. HRW got some needed rains. Export sales were generally underwhelming. This does no...
Market Commentary: Inflation Bites Stocks, Boosts Commodities; Meat Stocks Grow Sharply
The CBOT was sharply higher overnight amid wide support from European ag markets and global energy values. The day session, however, saw traders take a more tempered view of world fundamentals and the markets pulled back. Wheat ended lower for the day as it continues its whipsaw trading pattern...
Sabotaging Ukrainian Agriculture
EU leaders are accusing Moscow of deliberately destroying Ukraine’s food production and infrastructure. They charge that Russia has a long history of using food as a weapon, including against Ukraine in the Early 1930’s. The question is how long will it take to rebuild once the war...
Black Sea Regional Analysis: Ukrainian Grain and Oilseeds Market
Planting Update According to the Ministry of Agriculture, on 22 March the spring planting campaign started in the southern regions of Ukraine. Spring grains were planted in Odesa region on 30,000 hectares out of 750,000 hectares planned. Farmers in Mykolayiv region continued to dress winter gra...
Russia-Ukraine War Commodity Perspective
According to reports from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense intelligence operations, Russia has been purposefully bombing and/or commandeering agricultural machinery in the Ukraine, at least through last week. The latest was in the Sumska Oblast in north central Ukraine where a warehouse full...
Market Commentary: Lack of Peace Talks Sends Wheat Higher; Corn and Soybeans Post Bullish Breakouts
Early morning fund buying pushed the CBOT higher and markets held onto those gains through the day’s trading. The failure of meaningful peace talks to develop in Ukraine over the weekend sparked a round of buying as the implications for continued war in the country are obviously bullish g...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Profit Taking; Corn, Soy Charts Bullish; Another La Nina?
The CBOT ended weaker as few traders want to add risk heading into a weekend where unpredictable political and headline risk will be key features. The market’s recent volatility is pushing some traders to the sidelines and reducing trading volume. Traders are closely watching the war in U...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Peace Talk Rumors; Macro Markets Jump on Rate Hike and Chinese Policy Shift
Rumors and statements from Russia and Ukraine regarding a possible ceasefire agreement pressured CBOT markets Wednesday while sending U.S. stocks sharply higher. On Tuesday, Russian President Putin said peace talks were stalled but Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that talks were still in...
Black Sea Analysis: Agriculture in the Ukrainian War Zone
Editor's Note: Despite the war going on all around them, this update is provided by WPI’s consultants in Kyiv. We know that Ana and her new baby have made it to Poland; others on the team no doubt are enduring hardships. Yuriy even expressed guilt that this is the best they can do under t...
Market Commentary: Oil Selloff Pressures Soy Complex; Corn, Wheat Rally on Fund Buying
Corn and wheat futures settled higher Tuesday with influence from the ongoing war in Ukraine, poor U.S. winter wheat ratings, and falling crude oil prices. The corn market shrugged off early weakness created by the oil selloff as end-user and importer demand picked up on the break. The weak ene...
Oilseeds Update: Massive Disruptions and Change
This week’s USDA WASDE report was a blip on the screen compared with the intense focus and disruption of Russia warring on Ukraine. Due to the scale of these two countries in global agriculture, the war has caused markets themselves to explode. Early in the war one European analytical fir...
Oat Export Stoppage
Ukraine has announced an export stoppage for various agricultural commodities, including for oats, and Russia said it would restrict exports to certain markets but has not specified what or where. USDA today cut its forecast for wheat exports from these two major suppliers. The WASDE report rai...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s ongoing attempt to take over Ukraine continues to drive Black Sea, European, and global grain markets. Ukraine’s export ports will remain closed until the conflict is resolved and maritime trade can continue peacefully. The EU Commission has receiv...
Oilseeds Highlights: War Comes to Oilseeds
Before we get to the 800-pound bear (war), let’s cover some market basics. This would be an extraordinary market situation even without facing down a very bad bear. Brazil’s soybean exports have begun to increase and ANEC says they will hit 11.7 MMT in March. But China is buying a l...
Seriously, Read This
WPI has reported market data and analysis from Ukraine (and Russia) since 2005. We have accomplished this through our consultants in the region. If you’ve paid attention, they have been flawlessly on time every week for 17 years, until this week. We shared emails with them last week...
Market Commentary: Another Raucous Day
The war in Ukraine continues to push commodity futures higher and today was not the end in that trend. The market is scrambling to replace the wheat and sunflower oil normally supplied from the Black Sea region and the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index indicates this is the largest gain in commodi...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 15 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 15 November 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets were mixed this week with Capes rising while Supramax vessel rates declined yet again. The Capesize sector found support from China’s recent efforts to stockpile coal and iron ore, but this support has not yet t...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Jumps Higher on Massive Egypt Imports; Soymeal Falls on EUDR News
Wheat remains the darling of the CBOT with more bullish news pouring into the complex. Today’s rally was sparked by reports that Egypt has booked over 3 MMT of wheat from the Black Sea (presumably Russia) to be exported over the next six months. That move comes as Russian wheat stocks are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 September 2024 The Russian grain market is finally showing bullish sentiments. Adverse weather in Russia this season concerns many analysts, and they are one after another decreasing their forecasts for overall grain production. Exact numbers are hard to figure...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 August 2024 Kazakhstan announced they will close the borders with Russia for wheat from now until 31 December. This will put even more pressure on the Russian wheat market and may push them to offer softer offers for GASC tenders where they are the key players...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 August 2024 Crop Outlook As of 13 August, Russian farmers produced 69 MMT of grains from 20.6 Mha versus 73.5 MMT from 19.5 Mha last year. The average yield showed 3.36 MT/ha versus 3.76 a year ago. Wheat production reached 56.3 MMT from 15.8 Mha versus 57.4 M...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Market Commentary: Weather, Specs and Cheap Prices
The weather is bearish, except for spring wheat, and speculators are record short. Even having the cheapest grain in the world cannot spark enough new demand to slow the slide. Finding a bottom requires a supply shock, and the potential 20 MMT loss in Black Sea production due to drought is not...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 August 2024 Crop Outlook Russian analysts woke up to the fact that grain production reported from farms is higher than originally predicted. The reaction was quick and most of the main analytical agencies in Russia reforecast their numbers upwards. Particularly,...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 July–2 August 2024 Russian Vice Premier Patroushev announced that Russia is 40 percent done with harvesting small grains. The harvesting pace is ahead of last year’s pace; however, production is only 64 MMT which is lower than last year’s crop. The gr...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Sink on Record Yield Chatter; Wheat Firms on Quality Worries
Corn, the soy complex, and cattle futures each saw extended weakness in Thursday’s CBOT trade with the crop markets coming under pressure from favorable weather conditions and forecasts for the U.S. There is increasing market chatter about record breaking yields for both corn and soybeans...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 July 2024 This season Russia will fail to produce a record crop despite an earlier harvesting campaign. The Ministry of Agriculture believes in their previous forecast of 132 MMT of which wheat is 86 MMT. Interestingly, the Ministry of Agriculture is the most...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Market Commentary: Midwest Heat Concerns Corn, Soybeans; Cattle Finally React to COF Report
After two days of exciting trade, the CBOT settled down a little on Tuesday to reflect more deeply on market fundamentals. Monday’s Crop Progress data was largely reassuring for the major row crops, which helped create more stability in futures for the day. Wheat futures dipped but did no...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trends Continue; Ukraine’s Corn in Jeopardy
The CBOT saw generally quiet, steady trade at mid-week, but many players noted firmer undertones as futures stabilize or start to recover from deeply oversold conditions. Corn and all three wheat futures markets turned higher with cautious bull spreading with the latter market seeing support fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign. Even though this year’s crop is quite modest compared to the past several seasons, the pressure on prices is significant because of...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Neutral Corn; Soybeans Fall on Demand Worries
CBOT futures had a relatively muted reaction to the USDA’s July WASDE as large U.S. and global new crop ending stocks damped much of any potential volatility. The biggest theme was larger U.S. and world wheat supplies and stocks while the outlook for corn saw far more muted changes. Soybe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower
Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade. Trading volume was expectedly light ahead of the one-day break in trading and few markets made major moves. Those that did, however, include...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 June 2024 Russia’s grain markets were quite volatile with some regions showing price recoveries. Southern Russia’s harvesting campaign is underway. Fresh demand for new crop barley has seen better price levels and as long as feed barley exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 June 2024 Last week, Russian grain markets were quite volatile. In the south, the main export-oriented areas saw grain prices drop following the global bearish trend and Russia’s most recent failure on the GASC tender in Egypt. Moreover, Russia’s s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 June 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable and slightly bullish against solid demand for Russian wheat globally and recently appreciated markets due to fears of lower production caused by adverse spring weather. All Russian ministries, including the Ministr...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 May 2024 Russia remains the focus of many world grain analysts as weather factors in Russia and Ukraine make global markets nervous and bullish. Futures markets reacted almost instantaneously while Russian markets only now realize the situation and all grains...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Move to Trading Range Lows; Wheat Falls on Black Sea Rain
Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting progress, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and rains forecast for the Black Sea region this week. Corn and soybeans primarily saw their weakness de...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 May 2024 Crop Outlook Russian weather, particularly spring frosts, became an important factor in estimating the potential of this season’s crop. Despite the warnings from government agencies not to publish forecasts, several Russian analysts still announ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Bulls Remain Relentless; U.S. Farmers Make Strong Planting Progress
Overnight volume was strong at the CBOT with traders eager to get back to work following a weekend of reductions in the Black Sea crop forecast(s). Several private firms lowered their Russian wheat crop estimates late Friday or over the weekend, which sent EU futures higher on Monday and create...
Market Commentary: Weather Continues to Drive CBOT Strength; Meat Stocks Tighten Further
Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South America over the coming three-day holiday weekend. Weather concerns for planting the 2024 U.S. crops are lingering despite strong progress to da...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Corn Still Strong; Soy Complex Waivers
Corn traded mostly higher all session and has gained value in three of the past four days. The soy complex was higher in the overnight session and opened that way this morning, but it didn’t last long and closed in the red. The July soybean contract has had a mixed week, but it is still u...
Sunflower on Edge
Global sunflower seed production is only about one-seventh as large as soybean output, but it has surprisingly continued on a similar trend in supply despite the war between the two largest producers, Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s sunflower seed production faltered in 2022 at the outset o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 May 2024 Crop Outlook As of mid-May, Russia farmers planted 24.8 Mha of spring crops which is 44.5 percent of the forecast. This is 4.6 Mha ahead of last year’s planting pace. Grains and pulses were planted over 12.98 Mha which is 43.2 percent of the for...
Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans
Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ranging from Smolensk all the way to Volga Valley. Some nighttime temperatures were as low as minus 12 degrees Celsius which is catastrophic f...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April–3 May 2024 Last week Russia celebrated International Labor Day, and on May 9 will celebrate WWII Victory Day, resulting in a long 10-day holiday for many Russian families, including grain traders. This traditionally slows down trade, however, logistics cont...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 April 2024 Russian analysts are beginning to worry that this season’s grain production in Russia may drop from almost 145 MMT in 2023 to 135 MMT because of the drought in Southern Federal District – the wheat belt of Russia. Russian Ministry of Agr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may leave Russia without proper genetics for this spring’s planting campaign. While small grains are available due to long term domestic see...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 April 2024 The government has realized that taxing exportable wheat and barley at a high rate was not a good idea, especially with wheat stocks pushing the roof. Possibly the news about softer duties will improve prices for small grains. Corn duty is symbolic an...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 March 2024 Last week, the Russian domestic grain market was volatile. Most of the grains were recovering following global trends and demand in the export zone of Russia. However, even with zero duty which lasted only one week, feed corn continued losing ground...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risks Sink CBOT, Macro Markets
The CBOT and broader financial/macroeconomic markets reflected uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks on Tuesday with traders adopting a strong “risk off” mentality. Rising tensions in the Middle East with Iran and Israel’s proxy fight threatening to dissolve into an open w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 March 2024 The Russian domestic grain market saw depreciation of milling wheat and a slight depreciation of feed wheat, while feed corn also started to appreciate - most probably because of softer export duties. For the upcoming week, exports of feed corn from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on EU Tariffs; Soy, Corn Drift Lower Before Stocks, Acres Reports
The wheat market was the surprising upside leader for the day with Matif Paris futures posting large gains after sources said the EU Commission is considering applying a €95/MT tariff on Russian wheat imports. That strength spilled over into the U.S. markets, though U.S. wheat exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish in the south and Volga valley. However, export prices did not react immediately despite a decreased export duty and weaker RUB. In fact, a weaker RUB is better for Russian grain exports which are at hi...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat
When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...
Market Commentary: South American Rains, Export Competition Push CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with wheat leading the way on new contract lows in Paris wheat and aggressive competition from Ukraine and Russia on the export market. CBOT wheat also scored new contract lows as traders again piled into short positions on the emerging technical weakness. Corn...
Market Commentary: Next Week Won’t Be Boring as Wheat, Corn Pull Back and Soybeans Rise
The CBOT was mixed to end the week and start the month of March with livestock futures extending their rallies amid strong fundamentals. Grain trade, however, was less decisive with wheat futures dropping sharply lower amid greater competition from Ukraine and a bearish breakdown in technical c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...
Ukraine's Limited Choices
Much like U.S. farmers, Ukrainian producers prefer to plant the most profitable crops. This is especially true when considering Ukraine’s farmers are reportedly losing $50/MT on corn. The preference is to grow soybeans, and output of the oilseed increased nearly 27 percent in 2023. Howeve...
Market Commentary: Bearish Long-Term Projections, Outlook Expectations Sink Grain Markets
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with USDA issuing a bearish long-term outlook late Tuesday and traders looking for bearish numbers from the agency later this week. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will be in Washington, D.C. this Thursday and Friday and will offer the agency’s fir...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The export market has been driving this market for a while and intervention purchases did not save Russian farmers from the global bear. Moreover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harvested from occupied territories. During a recent press conference, he mentioned that during 2023 Russia produced 150 MMT in bunker weight and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 January 2024 After the January holidays, the Russian market is being revised step-by-step. The volume of trade is not so impressive but against all odds and large stocks the market saw some bullish sentiments especially with rye and peas. Peas dramatically appr...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...
2023: A Look Back in Humor
Note, the following is an attempt to summarize 2023’s major developments in ag markets and U.S. and world politics while injecting humor. Obviously, not everything is 100% factually “correct” and we leave it to you to determine fact from (hopefully) humorous fiction. Jan...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 December 2023 As of late December, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts grain production at 142 MMT. A week ago, the Russian Statistics Agency had already reported 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Done...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 December 2023 As of mid-December, the Russian Statistics Agency reports 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. The wheat crop alone accounted for 92.8 MMT which is the sec...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs like seeds, fertilizers, chemicals, spare parts, and western equipment. In an effort to help, the government provided subsidies to farmers a...
Changes in the Wheat Market
Decades ago, when wheat was king, WPI had many analysts keenly interested in wheat. Since then, corn became king and now soybeans jockey for top honors. Wheat is still important and filled with changing dynamics, none more notable than the rise of Black Sea wheat, and Russia in particular. Russ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT a year ago. The information from the Ministry is delayed and is usually adjusted several times. Wheat was reportedly harvested from 29.1 Mha...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 November–1 December 2023 Russian markets finally broke the bear which has been present almost since the beginning of the new season. High quality milling wheat is unmistakably bullish; the main factor is a lower share of high-quality milling wheat even though whe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 November 2023 Russian markets remained quite volatile, however, the Asian area finally stabilized because Kazakhstan seems to have replenished their stocks for the moment. The Siberian market is stable and although prices for 3rd grade milling wheat are...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia has shipped two vessels of wheat to Somalia and Burkina Faso as part of the country’s promise to send free grain to Africa. China purchased 66 KMT of feed corn from Ukraine at $248/MT C&F for December shipment. Through 24 November, Ukraine has ex...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 November 2023 The Russian market remained quite volatile with European Russia bearish and the Asian region bullish thanks to solid demand from Kazakhstan. However, the gap between the European and Asian parts of the country is getting smaller and smaller...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Climb on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Russian Attacks
Wheat futures were the exception to the CBOT’s trend-following trade on Tuesday, as the market rallied following another round of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports. The news sent wheat higher with CBOT futures up 10+ cents in a clear break from their recent trend lower. Corn and soybeans...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 November 2023 Russian markets remained quite volatile last week with the European area stable and bearish but the Asian part stable and bullish thanks to demand from Kazakhstan. This can move into a stagnation period where, with no fundamental factors inv...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks by 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel. This month’s 2023/24 global corn ending stocks, at 315.0 million tons, are up 2.6 million...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 October–3 November 2023 As of 30 October, Russia harvested 140.2 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 9.8 MMT less than the same date a year ago. Grains and pulses were harvested from 45.4 Mha which is 94.6 percent of the crop averaging 3.09 MT/ha versus...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Start Week Firm; Soybeans Rally as Technicals Lead Fundamentals?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with corn and wheat finding small gains on light buying interest while soybeans jumped higher on export demand and a rally in soyoil. Soyoil futures were nearly 3 percent higher for the day with noted bull spreading in a likely sign of commercial demand. F...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 23–27 October 2023 As of 27 October, winter crops were planted over 18.5 Mha versus the 20 Mha planned by the government. If Russia reaches this number, it will be up 1.5 Mha from last year. This also includes occupied territories of Ukraine, according to the g...
Market Commentary: Wheat Had Volume and Gains
The market opened mostly in the green this morning after overnight markets showed small gains for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats. About mid-session, corn and the soybean complex began trading both sides unchanged while wheat retained some upward if less lofty positions. In fact,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 October 2023 As of 20 October, Russian farmers harvested grains and pulses from 44.6 Mha which is in line with last year (44.5 Mha), averaging 3.08 MT/ha versus 3.33 MT/ha, a record-breaking year in Russian history. Interestingly, Russia first reports th...
Market Commentary: End of Week Reshuffle
The only certainty of the past week is that soymeal is going stratospheric. But corn, soybeans, and wheat took a breather today. For the week: December corn gained 0.456 percent December soymeal rose 8.69 percent November soybeans gained 1.71 percent December soyoil lost 1.82...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 October 2023 After weeks and weeks of bearish sentiments the market is finally coming to relative stability because farmers can afford to sit on their stocks, and most of the multinational trades are not currently doing business in Russia. Local old and n...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks by 110 million bushels to 2,111 million bushels for 2023/24. This is still a healthy ending stocks, but the estimated season-average corn price received by U.S. farmers was raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel. Global corn stocks are down 1...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the WASDE Storm
The CBOT was mostly calm before Thursday’s October WASDE – a report that often produces volatile reactions from the market. Corn and wheat drifted mostly lower, but corn managed to squeeze out a gain of a few cents in quiet trade. Soybeans dropped sharply lower despite daily “...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market: October 2-6, 2023 Bearish sentiments prevailed as the market became volatile from a variety of factors. On the one hand, there are ample stocks, high export duties, and low export prices. On the other the global market should be reaching its bottom and soon begin recoverin...
Market Commentary: Corn and Livestock Bulls Revived; Wheat, Soy Struggle Under Bearish Pall
Grains and livestock markets traded opposite directions to end the week with non-meat products ending lower amid profit taking and pre-WASDE position adjustment while livestock futures rallied across the board. One might have expected grain futures to post gains to end the week, given the week&...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Supply Expectations; Hog Trend Reversal Underway?
The CBOT was mostly lower in lackluster trade Wednesday with soymeal, live cattle, and hogs seeing the only substantial gains. The general trend for the week seems to be that global grain and oilseed supplies will be more ample for 2023/24 than expected, which is weighing on futures. Grains wer...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–27 September 2023 Bearish sentiments prevail as the harvest brings more and more grain to the market while exports are unable to cope with such large volumes and surpluses of wheat. There is a lack of competition on the buyer’s side as fewer and fewer...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Back After Friday’s Drubbing; Soyoil Stocks Hit 4-year Low
The CBOT largely reversed Friday’s extreme, post-Grain Stocks report selloff with corn fully erasing the prior trading day’s losses. Fresh news was light for the day, however, and Monday’s strength was largely due to “flash” export sales to China and Mexico along w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
Declining Ukrainian Market Share
Ukraine has successfully sent a few ships filled with grain out the Black Sea the past few weeks, but it is unlikely to transit the 33 MMT achieved under the now defunct grain corridor agreement with Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is attacking Ukraine’s sea and river ports including hammering...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises Despite Coming Harvest Pressure
The CBOT found a bit of strength for the day with corn seeing the most bullish action on expectations of a smaller 2023/24 Brazilian crop. Corn posted its second straight higher close with mild fund participation and the strength spilled over into wheat and soybeans to a small degree. Fresh new...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 11–15 September 2023 Russian grain markets plummeted on reports of another large crop and huge carryover which is not traditional for this time of the season. We are talking about 140 MMT of new crop plus around 27 MMT of old crop (carryover). Russia started th...
Market Commentary: Lower Through October
The CBOT started the new week on a bearish note with last week’s WASDE and fund selling as reported in the CFTC report creating pressure. Corn has the most bearish fundamentals right now, so it’s understandable that the market dropped to a new low for the year and broke technical su...
Market Commentary: Next Day Hangover
Corn and soybeans staged reversals to yesterday’s WASDE-driven declines while wheat continued tacking higher on the report’s forecasted decline in global supplies. The price gains in feed supplies may have spooked livestock as those contracts traded lower. Also lurking in the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 September 2023 Russian grain markets remained bearish, however, export volumes of all agricultural commodities from Russia remained stable. Russia has no navigation restrictions across the Black Sea. Going through Bosporus or any other channel, Russia can...
WASDE Corn
USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged. The result is ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel. Foreig...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 August–1 September 2023 Russian grain markets finally signaled that the new crop is calling the shots on the market. Southern areas went bearish because of ample supply and slow logistics while inland trading is trying to find its bottom price as farmers ar...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Ratings Hit Five-Year Lows; Wheat Beats a Bearish Drum
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened week in a lackluster manner with the soy complex sinking lower, largely on weaker palm oil values and soymeal deliveries, while wheat and corn futures scratched out small gains. Trading volume was light for the day and the last day of the most recent heatw...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under pressure from a good crop, however, export duties decreased to allow at least some bullish movement on the domestic market. The global prices are relatively stable, and exporters cannot afford to offer a m...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Adjust to New Paradigm; Feeder Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Nears Support
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with soybeans surging early on the hot, dry conditions last week and forecast for this week, with an added boost from a sub-50 BPA ProFarmer yield estimate. Corn followed soybeans higher but ran into resistance just shy of $5 that stalled the day’s pro...
Market Commentary: Lots of Mixed Messages
You are reading this report to better understand the issue of risk. This might make you unusual since the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center reports that respondents to its surveys show only 35 percent answer questions correctly about the topic. Then again, it is a tricky subject. Even...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Heat, Russian Attacks
The CBOT was higher to start the day after Russia attacked more Ukrainian export and grain infrastructure in Odesa and the country’s Danube River ports. That rally was extended during the day session as the blistering hot weather over the U.S. Midwest prompted traders to add back weather...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under the pressure of a good crop, higher freight rates, and ever-growing export duties. Since most of the pricing in country is based on the export marketplace in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, some regions are af...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Ukraine Starts Export Corridor; Soy Rallies on Scorching Forecast
The U.S. weather was just as hot and dry over the weekend as expected and this week’s outlook is unchanged with scorching temperatures predicted for most of the Midwest and Plains. You wouldn’t know it from futures’ price action on Monday, however, as corn and wheat futures pl...
Market Commentary: Midwest and CBOT Heat Up; Hog Rally Eases Discount; Cattle Supplies Tighten
The CBOT was almost uniformly higher to end the week as crop markets are increasingly concerned about the coming two-week weather forecast. The next week will be extremely hot and dry for the Midwest and corn and soybean yields are likely to take a hit. Just how hard-hit they will be remains th...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms on Russian Attacks, Extreme Midwest Temps
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday with another Russian attack on Ukraine’s Danube River ports and a hot, dry weather forecast for the Midwest offering support. Corn, soybeans, and KCBT wheat bounced higher off technical support while the CBOT wheat market traded either side of unchanged...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 August 2023 The Russian grain market was not following one clear trend. Partly because of the geographical spread of the country, but global factors also effect Russian markets and especially the latest developments in the Black Sea. The market is very se...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Focus on Weather, Carryout; Wheat Rebounds from Major Support
The CBOT found a bit of strength following a generally bearish August WASDE with soybeans playing the role of upside leader on a newly hot, dry two-week Midwest forecast. Moreover, the WASDE pointed to tight U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 and traders seemed to focus a bit more on that t...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
Market Commentary: U.S. Weather Shifts Again; WASDE Expectations; Ethanol Margins Climb
The CBOT was mixed at midweek with pre-WASDE positioning once again driving much of the day’s activity. Corn attempted to rally on short covering and continued strength in Dalian futures, but rallies were again capped above $5 by selling pressure. Soybeans and soyoil managed to squeeze ou...
Trade Without Industry; Content Moderation; Shipless Black Sea
Trade Without Industry If the Biden Administration were doing industry’s bidding, it would be negotiating trade agreements with real increases in market access. However, the lack of market access talks did not prevent Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Washington) from repeating the usual complaint...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 July–4 August 2023 The Russian grain market was predominantly bearish except for corn and rye. Weak domestic currency remains one of the major factors. You would think that with higher global prices, export prices in Russian seaports and riverports would fo...
Market Commentary: Certainties No Longer Certain; Corn, Soy Lower on Midwest Rains
Wheat futures rallied to start the week on increasing conflict in the Black Sea with Ukraine targeting Russian ocean vessels and adding new uncertainties to the region’s grain trade abilities. Wheat was only the first of two major ag markets (lean hogs being the other) to end the day high...
European Market Analysis
Regional News India is reportedly considering importing as much as 9 MMT of wheat from Russia to fill its domestic needs, but WPI sources continue to suggest the actual figure is likely to be 4-5 MMT. The Ukrainian Grain Association increased its forecast of the country’s grai...
Market Commentary: No Gapping Day
When the close is not too far off the open, the trading range is small and the volume is light, the price must be right. Markets continued their quotidian march generally lower but in a modest way. This no doubt reflects a weather forecast that spells recovery from an otherwise dis...
Market Commentary: Weather in the Driver’s Seat; CBOT Falls Despite More Danube Attacks
August has so far not been very kind to commodity markets, though it’s not as much the month’s fault as it is the fault of improved weather forecasts. CBOT futures were sharply lower on Wednesday and the mid-week weakness came despite another Russian attack on Ukrainian grain infras...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 July 2023 The Russian grain market was predominantly bullish and a big reason was the bombing of Ukrainian Black Sea and Danube ports followed by the Africa-Russia summit in St. Petersburg where Russia was testing the future of grain trading globally in...
Market Commentary: Rain Forecasts Trump Conditions; Soyoil Stocks Tighten; Spread Dynamics
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and wheat ending lower on continued fund selling amid bearish supply and demand prospectives, respectively. The soy complex edged slightly higher in a mile correction from Monday’s drubbing and despite forecasts of favorable Midwest rains and weathe...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sheds Weather Premium on Forecasts of Midwest Rains
Weekend weather model runs continued to show beneficial rains for the Midwest and Plains over the next two weeks with more moderate temperatures. The forecast comes just as the corn crop finishes pollinating and enters peak kernel fill while the soybean crop will enter its key yield-defining pe...
Market Commentary: Weather Rally Fades but Upside Risks Remain
The CBOT continued to drift lower on Friday with the fireworks from the rallies Monday and Tuesday fading on profit taking and more aggressive short selling. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal were all lower to end the week with soyoil and livestock the only bright spots among the major ag comm...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Lower on Rains, Yield Estimates
Rain across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday helped push the CBOT lower with wheat leading the way. Nothing has changed about the near-term forecast, which remains scorching hot and mostly dry across the Southern Plains and Corn Belt, but the 6-10-day forecast is mixed with be...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 July 2023 Russian farmers continue harvesting winter crops and the progress is quite good with grain crop forecasts totaling 134.5 MMT of which 86.5 MMT is wheat. Local analysts increased the forecast. The worst-case scenario is 123.5 MMT of grains with...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Doesn’t Change Bullish Backdrop
Bull markets need to be constantly “fed” with news and when that feeding slows or lapses, the rally does too. That’s largely what happened at the CBOT on Tuesday with a quiet day for fundamental news allowing markets to pull back with mild profit taking and slight corrective p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is facing continued daily power cuts as the very high temperatures have increased electricity demand. Egypt does have sufficient electricity production but the reduction in fuel to the plants has caused gene...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Danube Export Doubts
Monday’s trade was all about the weekend, which was hot and dry in the U.S. Midwest and featured more attacks by Russia on Ukrainian infrastructure. That alone would have been enough to send markets into rally mode, but it was coupled with a third bullish factor – an extremely hot a...
Market Commentary: Improved August Weather Forecast Prompts Profit Taking
The CBOT pulled back heading into the weekend on profit taking and NOAA’s new August weather forecast that shows more moderate temperatures and normal rains for most of the Corn Belt and Midwest. While any forecast longer than 10-days has been highly inaccurate this summer, the latest gui...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Pause Temporarily; Cattle Post Bearish Reversal before Report
The CBOT’s weather- and Black Sea-conflict induced rally took a break on Thursday with traders reassessing both global export market conditions and the U.S. weather forecast. There is a growing sense that the immediate impacts of the Black Sea grain export corridor’s expiration have...
Black Sea Grain Initiative: One and Done?
The uncertainty that Russia’s invasion has brought to agricultural markets continues. Roughly 32.9 MMT of grain has been exported from Ukraine since the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) began in July 2022. Russia refused to extend it Monday, siting the continued sanctions that target Rus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 July 2023 The Russian grain market was driven purely by a weak RUB which was registered from the beginning of the month. Even though the reference price dropped, the government increased the export duty for wheat probably speculating that prices will gro...
Market Commentary: Weather Drives CBOT Higher Desptie Improved Crop Conditions
Yesterday’s Corp Conditions report from USDA reflected the positive impact recent precipitation has had on crops, with conditions for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat all rebounding. That, as expected, pressured markets overnight but that weakness was short-lived as new weather threats co...
Market Commentary: Russia Leaves Black Sea Deal; Grains Lower After Two-Sided Trade
The CBOT started the day with a higher tone after Russia confirmed that it will be leaving the Black Sea export corridor agreement, which ended Monday, 17 July. The markets followed a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trading pattern and ended lower after fears of grain supply...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 2,262 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. Foreign corn ending stocks are virtually unchanged relative to last month. Global corn stocks are up 0.1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 July 2023 The first week of the new marketing year is gone and the market is under severe pressure due to carryover, slower exports, and multinational traders leaving the market. Farmers are not in a hurry to dump their grains at lower prices especially wi...
Market Commentary: Russian Port Attacks Send Wheat Higher; Markets Firm Ahead of WASDE
Wheat futures led the CBOT higher heading into the July WASDE after Russia launched 22 drones overnight at Ukraine’s Odesa grain terminal. Ukraine’s air defenses defeated all the drones, but two hit administrative buildings and debris from downed drones started two fires at port ter...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Short Covering Lifts Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Lower on Weak Demand
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with all eyes now solidly focused on Wednesday’s WASDE report. Corn and soybeans strengthened in early trade due to weekend rains that missed the western Corn Belt and northern Plains as well as short covering heading into the WASDE report. Wheat futur...
Geopolitical Issues in Fertilizer Markets
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the longest serving premier in the Netherlands and the second longest serving head of government in the EU, will be stepping down – and as he announced – leaving politics after an early election is called, probably for October or November. Rutt...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Russia/Ukraine conflict has again taken on an increased importance for commodity markets. Ukraine last week accused Russia of mining the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and both countries are accusing the other of planning attacks on the facility. Any event at the plant i...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 June 2023 Russian Grain Union is estimating the Russian grain crop at 130-140 MMT and export potential at 55 MMT. The Union is not expecting a record crop again and is estimating a 10 percent decline. A pessimistic scenario discussed by some domestic ana...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 June 2023 Russian analysts cut previous grain production forecasts by 2.3 MMT – down to 134 MMT - due to weather conditions, especially in Siberia and Volga Valley. The wheat production forecast dropped from 88 MMT to 86.8 MMT, barley forecast from...
Market Commentary: Correction on a Glimmer of Hope
Generally, the higher they rise the harder they fall but today’s correction on a still murky weather report ended with some restraint from going completely overboard. This crop has been damaged and as today’s Drought Monitor map reinforces, it is getting damaged further. It w...
Market Commentary: EPA Volumes Sink Soyoil; Grains Rally on Crop Conditions
Just one day after this analyst wrote that grain futures were likely to take a break from their rally amid overbought technical conditions, futures extended their rallies based on worsening U.S. crop conditions. The USDA’s crop conditions data yesterday was bullish corn, soybeans, and spr...
Sinking Ships
Russia says it expects the Black Sea grain corridor agreement to end on 18 July, though it is willing to keep talking. The Russian deputy foreign minister said that even if the agreement with the UN for Ukrainian grain shipments end, Moscow expects its agreement for exporting Russian grain to c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 June 2023 According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, as of 5 June, total acreage of spring grains and legumes planted reached 29 Mha including: wheat – 13.5 Mha, barley – 7 Mha, corn – 2.5 Mha, and rice – 159,400 ha. ...
Market Commentary: A Pause Amid the Weather Market Storm
Last week’s CBOT trade rightly featured significant rallies as the U.S. weather forecast remains stubbornly hot and dry in both near- and long-term forecasts but today’s trade featured a pause amid the drought-concern rally. Futures were somewhat overextended after last week’s...
Black Sea Situation
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 June 2023 The second week of June remained bearish with the fundamental factors remaining the same: lower export duty, weak RUB, high stocks, and low export demand in the Black Sea. Bearish factors prevail, especially high stocks which are pushing...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 May – 2 June 2023 Russian farmers are in the final stage of spring planting. Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of early June, 50.7 Mha were planted which is 92 percent of the forecast. A year ago, the planted area was 49.1 Mha. Spring grains...
Market Commentary: Stirred but Unshaken
There was a lot of input coming at the market today, but the only significant movements came in corn and soyoil. First up was news that the Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric plant on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine was destroyed. Early word was that farmland was flooded but the reaction...
Market Commentary: Mixed Bag
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. It was a modest volume day with trading initially unclear about what direction to take. Corn opened higher, traded both sides but ended down. Soybeans traded both sides but ended lower. Wheat moved higher and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22 – 26 May 2023 Russian farmers continue their spring planting campaign. The Minister of Agriculture reports that around 33.2 Mha have been planted out of the 57 Mha scheduled. Also, 93 percent of winter crops are in good condition but in certain areas winter...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15 – 19 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish. Russia’s position during negotiations of the UN grain corridor extension was not particularly strong and all sentiments were in favor of an extension, even if only for sixty days. Export dut...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European weather is shifting more favorably for crop development over the next week with cooler-than-normal temperatures predicted and rains for the southern portion of the continent. The rains will notably include southern Spain, Italy, the Balkans, and parts of Bulgari...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Renewed; Fund Selling Hammers CBOT
The CBOT feature one-direction trade at mid-week – lower – with funds continuing to rapidly exit long positions in the grain markets and/or pile into newly profitable short positions. While technical/fund selling drove most of the day’s price action, bearish fundamental factor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8 – 12 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish with the volume of trade miniscule because of traditional May holidays in Russia. A parade in Moscow was held irrespective of the weather or geopolitical situation giving the Russian people another...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Plunge Lower; Corn Tests $5 Again; Wheat Mixed on Varied Outlook
Weak macroeconomic markets and good planting progress in Monday’s Crop Progress report sent the CBOT sharply lower on Tuesday. Corn and soybeans led the way lower with oilseed breaking technical support in early trade and subsequently falling 25-36 cents by the closing bell. Weakness in s...
Market Commentary: A Story of Mixed Proportions
It might be called pre-positioning ahead of tomorrow’s USDA May WASDE report, but it looked like more of the same. Corn and wheat took their dings, but soybeans and meal were immune. The trend is down, and this week of trading has reinforced that dynamic. But it isn’t an exuberant a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 1–5 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remain bearish. Russia is struggling with low prices for grains for domestic farmers and is not receiving sufficient revenue through export duties. Moreover, 1–9 May was a holiday season in Russia mak...
Market Commentary: HRW Wheat Rally Continues While Corn, Soybeans Await WASDE
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly focused on positioning for the May WASDE report that USDA will release on Friday. That meant relatively quiet trade in corn and the soy complex where early rallies met selling pressure that knocked contracts off their highs for the...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission has places restrictions on the import of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed into five member states (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) through 5 June 2023 to ease supply issues and local price depressions. The ruling allows...
Market Commentary: Mid-Session Reversal Except for New Crop
Corn, wheat, and soybeans traveled in the red for much of the morning trading before wheat turned higher and old crop corn and soybean contracts reversed losses. No doubt weighing on wheat is tensions with Russia, the crops top global supplier, while economic uncertainty keeps animal proteins s...
Market Commentary: Kremlin Drone Story Sparks CBOT Short-Covering Rally
The war in Ukraine continues to be a major influence for the CBOT trade with Russia’s overnight claims it shot down two Ukrainian drones near the Kremlin offering support for ag futures on Wednesday. Russia has described the event as a foiled assassination attempt on President Putin but t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 24 – 28 April 2023 Russia’s grain market remained bearish. Across the country, grains lost value except for Siberia which is still stable and even slightly bullish. However, Siberia is not going to maintain better prices as overall trends bot...
Market Commentary: Crop Fundamentals Play Second Fiddle to Risk Adjustments
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday with any attempt at a rally quickly finding eager and sustained selling pressure. There was no real fundamental catalyst for the day’s selling from an agricultural perspective, rather the day’s weakness stemmed from widespread risk-off trade ami...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained predominantly bearish, but the bear is weaker and slower now. Trading is a tug of war with farmers keeping stocks and they are in no hurry to sell for less. Export duties will dictate the trends in the nea...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat as Ukraine Shipments Resume; Cattle Charts Turn Bearish
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the early week rally fading amid the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine and a favorable shift in the U.S. weather forecasts. Ship inspections in Ukraine’s Black Sea export corridor resumed Wednesday after a two-day halt that Kyiv blamed on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained unmistakably bearish; even RUB based trading indicators softened in the ports for all grains. While dollar FOB wheat prices remained almost unchanged for wheat, barley and corn quotations softened. The k...
Market Commentary: CBOT Pares Early Losses Amid Cool U.S. Weather Pattern, Black Sea Risks
The CBOT saw widespread two-sided trade on Tuesday with overnight gains fading quickly after the morning session opened. Markets eventually found a bid near mid-day, however, and corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat all settled higher for the day. Funds were slight net buyers in those three commod...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish the first week of April aligning with export duty behavior and local currency depreciation. For a few days prices remained stable thanks to domestic currency depreciation but the government was qui...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, with unchanged ending stocks. Corn imports are lowered 10 million bushels based on observed trade to date. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 5.275 bil...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for slightly higher supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised 5 million bushels on higher imports, based on the pace of Census imports reported to date. Domestic use is lo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 March 2023 International traders, after one full year of war in Ukraine, have finally made up their minds to leave Russia as the business environment in the country is probably one of the most unpredictable in the world. Bunge was one of the first larg...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023 The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory terms. Ukraine announced a 120-day extension while Russian officials claim the extension is only valid for another 60 days. The Russian sid...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there seems to be no agreement on the time period – 60 or 120 days. Even the UN announcement of the extension did not mention the time period...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Sinks Wheat; Markets Brace for Wednesday Fed Meeting
The CBOT started the week with some risk-off trade after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal to extend the Black Sea export corridor agreement over the weekend. The two countries are still arguing over the details of the agreement, but the major takeaway was that Ukraine can still ship grain in r...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Lack of Export Deal; Soybeans Fall Despite 25-MMT Argy Crop Prediction
Corn was the upside leader overnight with heavy volume kicking off Friday’s trade date. Three days of export sales to China plus rumors (that USDA confirmed later in the morning) of a fourth set of sales were bullish and helped put funds and commercials in a buying mood. Wheat futures con...
Market Commentary: Livestock Markets Collapse on Economic Risks; Grains Grind Higher
Bank liquidity issues and collapses remain at the forefront of the market’s collective mind with investors increasingly looking for safe-haven assets and “risk off” trades. That has exerted some influence on the ag markets, with livestock futures being the primary recipient of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 March 2023 Grain markets lost all hope for any bullishness due to a global bearish mood, export duties, and the upcoming spring planting campaign which requires cash. The grain export potential of Russia this season is tremendous. Sanctions are n...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off SVB Shakiness
Except for the livestock markets, ag futures were broadly higher on Tuesday with investor and trader confidence returning after the weekend shock to the banking sector. While Monday’s trade was weaker and heavily influenced by the macro-market panic selling relating to the Silicon Valley...
Market Commentary: Macroeconomic Shockwaves Create CBOT Jitters
The CBOT’s trade on Monday was initially focused on the weekend failure of two major banks, a fact that sent shockwaves through the macroeconomic markets to start the week. The biggest impact was heightened volatility and a strong “risk off” mentality that initially impacted C...
WASDE Corn
CORN: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date. The season-average corn price is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks, at 296...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 February – 3 March 2023 Russian grain markets maintained previous price levels and in certain segments were even slightly bullish particularly in top grade milling wheat. Low quality milling wheat and feed wheat are abundant and have been bearish for...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 - 24 February 2023 Russia had one day off last week which was an Army Day. Although the business week was one day shorter it did not stop Russian grains, and especially wheat, from losing ground. With a record crop and winning several international tenders,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 - 17 February 2023 The Russian domestic grain market was unmistakably bearish. A large crop, increasing export duties, relatively stable domestic currency, and a slower export pace have all contributed. Of course, international sanctions were introduced, a...
Market Commentary: Argy Crop Ratings Worsen; CBOT Chops Sideways into Weekend
The CBOT posted a day of two-sided trade on Friday to end a week of choppy, two-sided trade. With the three-day weekend coming up, few traders were interested in extending positions or adding risk to portfolios, which limited trading volume and price action. Additionally, there was little fresh...
Market Commentary: Exhausting the Angst
Markets trade on fundamentals and right now is the equivalent of being an ebb tide. It is a shift from angst over supply-reducing weather in South America to the bearish awe of watching its production come to market. What happens during the ebb tide is very low volume, the sole exception today...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 - 10 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained relatively stable. Feed wheat remains more expensive than barley, corn trading is animated and is slightly bullish on the domestic market but the key driver for corn demand is the export market. Exp...
WASDE Corn
USDA projected lower U.S. corn use for ethanol and larger ending stocks. U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, wit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 January - 3 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable. The only commodity which slightly recovered is barley, but this is the exception rather than the rule. It is a record crop in Russia this season. Corn is under pressure from Ukrainia...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 -27 January 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable and slightly bearish. The feature of the week was feed barley equaling feed wheat in price. Corn slightly depreciated under pressure from Ukraine which has been exporting massive amounts of th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt has reportedly secured a long-term contract with Germany to buy wheat from the European nation, though details on the agreement are sparse. Russia’s total wheat planted area for 2023 is projected to reach 29.05 Mha, down from 29.468 Mha seeded in 2022. Roma...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 - 20 January 2023 Grain prices remained relatively stable and are most likely to remain stable in the near term. The key factor creating such a “lazy” market is a record high grain crop. Farmers realize that exports are slow and domestic miller...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 - 13 January 2023 The Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) has adjusted preliminary crop size numbers for the 2022 crop. Overall, grain production numbers were adjusted upwards reaching 153.83 MMT versus the previous 150.985 MMT. Wheat production was adjuste...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA reduced U.S. corn production to 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.6 million acre cut to harvested area. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, an...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. Wo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 - 6 January 2023 With a historic grain crop and the upcoming Russian Orthodox Christmas holidays, traders seem to have taken a winter break which may last the first two first weeks of January rather than one week because in Russia the old new year is celebr...
Market Commentary: Volatile Trade for Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Falls on European Weakness
Trading at the CBOT was active on Tuesday with most major markets scoring wide ranges but ending well away from the day’s extremes. Wheat futures plunged lower amid weakness from the European markets but pared losses heading into the close while corn and soybeans backed away from their da...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Germany’s winter wheat area is estimated at 2.8 Mha for 2023/24, down 1.9 percent. Winter barley was seeded across 1.3 Mha this year, a 5.1 percent increase. Ukrainian officials are citing concern for the hardiness of winter crops (most notably wheat) as an unusually w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 - 23 December 2022 Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced a record year-end grain production of 159.5 MMT in bunker weight which is up 32.6 MMT from 2021. The Ministry forecasts the final grain production number after dockage at 150 MMT with wheat produ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 – 16 December 2022 Russian grain markets remain bearish with many factors putting pressure on the market including but not limited to export duties, a relatively strong local currency, a record crop, and competition with Ukrainian wheat and corn in t...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rise on Bull Spreading; Corn, Wheat Drift Lower in Light Volume
The CBOT traded a quiet day at mid-week with corn and wheat pushing lower and bull spreading developing in soybeans and soymeal. The soy complex remains the hot market for now with soymeal holding just below recent contract highs and commercials still buying, as evidenced by the spread trade. C...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 - 9 December 2022 Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia is revamping its positions on grains and oilseeds markets thanks to a record crop, high demand for wheat, and other agricultural commodities. Sanctions, increased insurance, and war risks have had...
WASDE Corn
U.S. domestic corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels due to slow sales. As a result, corn ending stocks are raised 75 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.70 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Foreign cor...
Market Commentary: USDA Cuts Corn Exports; Argy Wheat Crop Falls to 12.5 MMT; Cattle Take Back Early Losses
The December WASDE made few changes to its outlook for the world grain supply and demand situation, which left the CBOT to essentially continue its existing trends. Wheat futures sold off 10-12 cents lower and soyoil joined the weakness and broke a major technical support zone. Soymeal continue...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 Novermber – 2 December 2022 With the UN humanitarian corridor back in place, Russia is reportedly procrastinating with inspections in the Black Sea thus creating a line of international vessels in the Bosporus straight. This is causing Ukraine and the world probl...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 November 2022 The feature of the week remains the same – extension of the UN humanitarian Black Sea corridor under UN auspices with Turkey being the guarantor of the transaction. While Ukrainians are complaining about terrible delays with Russian inspections a...
Market Commentary: Soy Rally Continues; Wheat, Corn Drift Lower; House Moves to Preempt Rail Strike
The CBOT largely continued its prior trends on Tuesday with soybeans adding to Monday’s rally despite a pullback in soyoil. Corn chopped sideways again and stayed within the range that has defined its trade for the past thirteen trading days. SRW wheat bounced higher as funds took a brief...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 November 2022 Russia continues to harvest a record crop - over 150 MMT currently. Even more interesting are current Russian stocks and carryover. Russian Statistics Agency reported that as of 1 November, Russia’s grain stocks are 42.6 MMT, up 31 percent from 2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 November 2022 Planting Update Russia’s winter crop is planted, however, due to adverse weather conditions farmers failed to plant about 1 Mha showing only 17.5 Mha versus 18.1 Mha a year ago. In addition to poor weather conditions, farmers who realized Russia h...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 October - 4 November 2022 Russia’s grain harvest continues and has set a record of 150 MMT. Russia’s wheat belt, Krasnodar area, also set a new wheat production record of 10.7 MMT. The Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 7 November, Russia produced...
Market Commentary: Russia Taketh and Russia Giveth; But Volatility Remains
What Russia taketh away, Russia apparently giveth back. Just three days after leaving the Ukraine export corridor deal, Russia reversed its weekend decision and re-joined the export agreement. Apparently, President Putin made the decision and agreed to cooperate with the UN, Turkey, and (to a f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24-28 October 2022 Planting Update Winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest in the past five years. As of 31 October, winter crops were planted over 16.3 Mha which is 85 percent of the forecast and about 2 Mha behind past year. It is already cle...
Market Commentary: Russia Exits Ukraine Export Deal, Wheat Rallies 50 Cents, Corn, Soy Follow
Russian officials announced over the weekend that the country will end its participation in the so-called “export corridor deal” made between the U.N., Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia. The move was in response to weekend drone strikes on a Russian vessel in a Crimean port, which Russia...
European Market Analysis
Ukraine Export Corridor Update The biggest news in European and Black Sea grain markets this week is Russia’s announcement that it will exit the UN/Ukraine/Russia grain “export corridor” deal effective immediately. WPI and other analysts had long suspected Russia would not ren...
Market Commentary: Consensus in Play
After four days of trading this week and thousands of contracts trading hands, as of today’s close, corn is down 0.292 percent, soybeans are down 0.949 percent, and wheat has lost 1.4 percent. And it could all zero out by tomorrow’s close. With little new to factor in, markets are t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 October 2022 Planting Update Russian winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest for the past five years. As of 21 October, winter crops were planted over 15.8 Mha which is 83.2 percent of the forecast and around 2 Mha behind last year. Centr...
Market Commentary: Not Pretty
Though they closed higher, volume was down in corn and soybeans and wheat shaved off some more excess value. The truth is there is just not much to move the market right now. The lower value of the dollar plus rising equities and oil provides some outside support but the fundamentals are stable...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 October 2022 Winter Crop Planting Russian winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest in the last five years. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for Russia this fall. Expected acreage of winter crops may be as low as 16.5 Mha dropping by...
Market Commentary: Livestock Rallies Continue; Grains End Lower on Fund Selling
The CBOT pulled back again on Tuesday with only soyoil and the livestock contracts finding their way to higher ground. Funds continued to liquidate their net long positions in corn and soybeans while extending a short SRW wheat position. Fundamental news that hit the wires Tuesday seemed to all...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends on Down Note After Export Sales Disappoint
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week with corn, soybeans, wheat, and both cattle contracts all posting losses by the closing bell. The only real gainer was the lean hog market, where futures rallied to triple-digit gains on relative strength in the cash market. Trading volume was light acr...
Market Commentary: Makeup Call
What could go right? The stock market and commodity futures both started the trading day glumly observing certain fundamentals: U.S. core inflation in September at 6.6 percent had hit a four-decade high; CPI was at 8.2 percent. It is now sealed that next month the Fed will add another growth s...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. corn production to 13.895 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduction in yield to 171.9 bushels per acre. Exports are lowered 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2022/23 are...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. wheat production based by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million. However, first quarter total disappearance is the lowest since 1983/84 - wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 October 2022 Russian winter crop planting is behind schedule at only around 50 percent of the forecast and 1 Mha behind last year at the end of September. The Ministry of Agriculture already forecasts next spring planting to reach 82.2 Mha which is up 200,000 ha. The...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 30 September wheat production showed 101.9 MMT of bunker weight wheat versus 74.5 MMT a year ago. The average wheat yield increased from 2.81 MT/ha to 3.61 MT/ha. Harvesting was complete on 28.2...
Market Commentary: Holding Pattern
Two-sided, narrow trading continues as uncertainty competes with certainty over where true value is headed. In an almost hands off manner, soybeans failed to trade at its usual 25-cent minimum daily spread, and corn barely broke a 10-cent range. There is plenty of macro suspense – the Rus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 22 September wheat production was 99.9 MMT of bunker weight wheat versus 72.9 MMT a year ago. The average wheat yield increased from 2.8 MT/ha to 3.6 MT/ha. Harvesting has been completed on 27.4...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 September 2022 As of 15 September, Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 132.3 MMT versus 99.4 MMT a year ago, of which 96.4 MMT is wheat in bunker weight, 23 MMT is barley, and 780,800 MT is corn. These numbers are t...
Market Commentary: Russia’s Annexation Effort Creates Turnaround Tuesday at CBOT
The CBOT rallied sharply on Tuesday with Russia’s actions in Ukraine again at the forefront of the market’s mind. Russia is trying to annex four parts of Ukraine this week and implications that it is building troop reserves and resources suggest no peaceful end to the war is coming...
Market Commentary: Wheat Grinds Higher on Uncertain Ukraine Export Outlook; Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week amid a general lack of fresh news. Corn and soybeans both drifted lower in quiet trade and extended Tuesday’s pullback and reversal, respectively. Wheat futures pushed higher as the Ukraine export corridor agreement remains in jeopardy while U.S. basis level...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 September 2022 As of 7 September, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 125 MMT of which 88.2 MMT is wheat, 21.2 MMT is barley, and 35,000 MT corn (the corn harvest has just started). These numbers are the weight co...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed After Dollar Rallies on Inflation Data
With the September WASDE now past, the CBOT largely entered consolidation mode on Tuesday with a renewed focus on weather as yields are finalized, export demand, and, of yeah, inflation. August inflation was down from July but above expectations, which threw macroeconomic markets into a tizzy a...
Russia Ignores Fungability
Russia is complaining that Ukraine’s grain exports are not going to poor countries, undermining the intent of the grain corridor agreement. There is the threat to undue or rewrite that agreement. More than 2 million tons of grain have been shipped over the last five weeks and while not al...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: August–2 September 2022 Grain markets were volatile. While global markets remain bullish, Russian traders are still speculating and expecting a bigger bear. This, of course, is possible at the early stage of the game and especially with a forecast for a record crop...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Dry Weather; Argentine “Soy Dollar” Pressures Soy Complex
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with a weekend of dry weather offering support to the corn market and sparking a 10-cent rally in that commodity. Conversely, soybean futures were under pressure from Argentina’s now-confirmed “soy dollar” that is intended to increase farme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Sri Lanka’s Minister of Trade says there is no reason for wheat flour prices to increase as the local supply is good and more milling wheat is expected from Dubai and Turkey. Sri Lanka is forecast, by USDA-F...
Market Commentary: Bearish Pressures
The markets opened lower and then turned deeper red as the session wore on. Much of the pressure was from outside markets, plus caution ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Soymeal and livestock managed higher closes but the rest saw losses. For the first four days of this trading week...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower on Economic Worries while Wheat Makes Seasonal Gains
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures continuing their slow rally while soybeans and soymeal continue to fall, despite fresh soybean export sales news. Soyoil managed to post a strong gain for the day, which was all the more impressive as it came with a 3 percent decline in crude o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues with grain production, as of 25 August, at 78.9 MMT which is up 24.8 percent from last year (63.2 MMT). Overall grains and legumes were harvested from 27.6 Mha averaging 3.82 MT/ha producing 105.2 MMT of grains. Rus...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat End Lower in Turnaround Tuesday; Livestock Futures Rally on Technical Buying
After starting the week on a high note, the CBOT posted a “turnaround Tuesday” with corn and wheat giving back much of Monday’s gains. The soy complex posted a second consecutive day lower but pared losses in the afternoon to end fractionally lower. The initial shock of the Pr...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Yield Concerns; Wheat Surges 30 Cents on Ukrainian Offensive
CBOT grain markets were higher to start the week while the soy complex drifted lower amid little fresh news and a lack of international buying interest. Corn received support from follow-through buying based on last week’s ProFarmer yield estimates as well as additional reports of poor co...
Market Commentary: Backtracking
After a run up in recent days over drought in the U.S., bad news from a major crop tour, plus drought in Europe and China, there was profit taking today as the domestic weather outlook improves and the Black Sea becomes more active. There was uncertainty at the open as corn, soyoil and HRS show...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 15-19 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues. As of 11 August, grain production showed 75.5 MMT harvested, which is up 600,000 MT from last year. The total area harvested is 18.1 Mha, which is 6.5 Mha behind last year. Specifically, wheat was harvested from 1...
Market Commentary: Wheat Down Again; Rest Rangebound
Weather and Ukraine remain bearish factors in agricultural markets. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited Ukraine today and highlighted that 21 ships have departed Ukrainian ports less than a month after signing the access deal, and 15 vessels are in transit for Ukraine to load more gra...
Russian Wheat Price Moves Lower
The consultancy Sovecon this week increased its estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 94.7 MMT. That is 7.6 percent more than USDA's guess at 88 MMT and if realized, it would be nearly 20 MMT larger than Russia’s 2021/22 wheat crop. An astounding level of increase. By contrast, the consul...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 August 2022 The harvest in Russia continues. Some areas in the south are entering the final stage and producing a record crop. Rostov on Don area, the wheat belt of Russia, is boasting a 14.5 MMT crop from 3.35 Mha of which 2.9 Mha was winter wheat. This is a record...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA forecast U.S. corn production for 2022/23 at 14.4 billion bushels, down 146 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.4 bushels per acre, is 1.6 bushels below last month’s projection. The primary reason...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all-wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bus...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Surprises and Questions Linger Going Forward
The CBOT was strictly focused on the August WASE in Friday’s trade. Price action before the USDA’s noon report featured quiet, weaker spread trade and wheat fell 11-17 cents while corn and soybean futures pushed higher. The report itself was within the range of pre-report estimates,...
Market Commentary: Pre-Report Positioning
In the last full trading day before the August WASDE is released, traders reaffirmed their belief that USDA will be marking yields lower on adverse weather impacts. The expected declines are modest: corn down 1.2 percent to 173.6 bushels/acre, soybeans lower by 0.9 percent to 51 bushels/acre, a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 August 2022 Russia’s harvest campaign continues. As of the first week of August, reports show 56.5 MMT of grains harvested which is 8 MMT behind last year. Grains and legumes are harvested from 13.3 Mha which is 7 Mha behind last year at this time. Yields are mu...
Market Commentary: Weather Outlook Supports Corn; USDA Confirms China Soy Buying; Cattle and Hogs Rally on Packer Demand
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat remaining under pressure from Ukraine’s slow but growing grain export program and from the large Russian crop. Corn managed to push higher for the day on a hot, dry weekend forecast for the Plains and western Corn Belt as well as a dry outlook...
Market Commentary: Small Rebound
The trading session opened kind of sluggish, not even meeting the overnight closes. There was uncertainty in grains and oilseeds, though not in livestock since it opened lower. Soybeans surged first, with corn following and wheat getting the hint about two hours into the day. The market remains...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 – 29 July 2022 Russia’s harvesting campaign continues. The latest forecast for wheat production in Russia is 90 MMT. Wheat exports are expected to beat all previous records and may exceed 42.5 MMT with overall grain exports estimated at 55.4 MMT. However, m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Lebanon is scheduled to receive the first shipment of wheat from Ukraine’s Odessa port – the M/V Razani is reported to have sailed from Odessa with about 26,000 MT of wheat. The vessel will stop in Ist...
Market Commentary: Markets Fall on Ukraine Grain Exports; U.S. Crop Conditions Exceed Expectations
The day’s big news – as WPI readers will likely already know – was that a vessel carrying Ukrainian corn left the Black Sea this morning destined for Lebanon. This is the first maritime export of grain since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and suggests near-term world...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Perhaps the biggest news in the world – and especially Black Sea – grain markets is Monday’s shipment of 26 KMT of corn from Ukraine via the Black Sea. This is the first sea-based export of grain by Ukraine since Russia invaded the country in February 2022...
Market Commentary: Weekly Gains but Rough Day for Wheat
It was a week of big gains for corn and soybeans, and wheat as well, but today put a damper on it. Wheat, like corn and soybeans came out of the chute this morning following on the double digit close in the overnight market. But wheat may have been buffeted (corn too) by speculation on whether...
Market Commentary: Trend is Your Friend
It was another mostly green day in agricultural futures, lending credence to the saying that the trend is your friend. Macro markets offered new variables but for ags it was more of the same old same old. The direction was mostly set out of the box with several opening bids outrunning the overn...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Leads Soy Complex Higher; Spring Wheat Yields Pressure Futures
The CBOT was mixed in light-volume trading at mid-week with most of the market’s attention focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve and its interest rate decision. The Fed raised its target interest rate by 75 bps as expected and reassured of its commitment to return inflation to near 2 percen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 July 2022 The major development was without a doubt the UN Agreement unblocking Ukrainian ports followed by Russian missiles bombing Odessa port. The agreement was made to help the world with food and to stabilize prices. That’s why the UN was involved in this...
Market Commentary: Weather Premium
In an otherwise benign market situation, there were solid gains today in the grain and oilseed pits. This was in part out of a recognition that U.S. crop ratings are declining, and more unhelpful weather is on the way. It didn’t help that Russia first bombed port structures in Odess...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Russia Blows Up Export Deal - Again
The CBOT was sharply higher after Friday’s agreement between Russia and Ukraine regarding a grain export corridor in the Black Sea was blown up – literally – one day later by Russian shelling of the Port of Odessa. The export agreement pressured futures on Friday and the weeke...
Market Commentary: Deal with the Devil
The announced deal with Russia was a major force on the market today. The quad (Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, the UN) signed an agreement providing a possible pathway for Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports. The deal means that 22 MMT Ukrainian grain and oilseeds could be exported via the Black Sea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 July 2022 While the world is watching several rounds of negotiations focused on unblocking Ukrainian Black Sea ports, Russia continues exporting grain on business-as-usual terms predominantly to “friendly” countries including Iran, Egypt, Turkey, Syria,...
Market Commentary: CBOT Moves Lower After WCB Rain Forecast; Packer Margins Worrying for Cattle, Hogs
The CBOT gave back most of Monday’s gains after U.S. weather forecasts shifted to feature more scattered showers for the western Corn Belt. Along with the more favorable weather outlook, USDA’s Crop Conditions report yesterday was better than expected for corn and soybeans, alleviat...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Hot, Dry Weather Forecast, Fund Short-Covering
The CBOT rallied to start the week on a combination of follow-through buying from Friday’s corn and soybean gains as well as a hot, dry forecast for the U.S. in the coming weeks. End-user and some commercial buying activity was noted for the day, but much of the volume was related to fund...
Market Commentary: CBOT Caps Volatile Week with Quiet Day; Weather Increasingly Important
After a week of stunning volatility, the CBOT ended Friday with quiet trade that saw summer row crops firm while the wheat selloff continued, though in muted fashion. The USDA’s July WASDE wasn’t exactly bearish, but funds are growing tired of holding commodities amid the lack of a...
Market Commentary: Continued Pressure from Macros
Few people like the big banks but they can set the mood and that is what happened with reports of earnings declining at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. The overall trend is down as outside markets trump the fundamentals in ags. One Bloomberg analyst concluded that commodities were never a good inv...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 4-8 July 2022 Russia’s harvest continues showing good results thus supporting an optimistic forecast for wheat production during the 2022/23 season which has just started. Rostov Oblast, which is one of the largest producers and exporters of wheat, is expecting a re...
WASDE Corn
Corn – USDA’s July estimate is for larger U.S. supplies and higher ending stocks. U.S. corn production is up 45 million bushels due to greater planted area in the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 177.0 bushels per acre. With no use changes, e...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA’s July estimate is for larger U.S. supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks: Supplies are raised on increased production, which is up 44 million bushels to 1,781 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields. The projected seaso...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Reversal Rally on Weather, Pre-WASDE Positioning
The CBOT rally that started on Wednesday continued into Friday as traders bought back short positions and added slight length to positions heading into the weekend. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to favor hotter, drier weather into August, which prompted most of this week’s recover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 27 June-1 July 2022 Russia continued harvesting grains and it seems like the 2022 crop will be very close to a record. Russian Grain Union is expecting 84 MMT of grains according to Akradiy Zlochevsky, the head of the Union. The most recent forecasts showed 122 MMT of gr...
Food Crisis in Mexico; No Easy End to War
Food Crisis in Mexico Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) visits President Joe Biden in the White House next month and farmers in Canada and the U.S. want a message conveyed – don’t do it. AMLO has pledged to ban GMO corn in 2024, he has already begun...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 20-24 June 2022 Russia launched harvesting in the Southern Federal District as well as in seized and annexed Ukrainian Crimea. Other temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, which include parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Lugansk, will be harvesting in a si...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday; Weather Now Secondary to USDA Reports
The CBOT posted a Turnaround Tuesday with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex pushing higher after the recent weakness. Soybeans and soymeal led the rally as spot demand for both commodities is rising and a 2+ percent rally in crude oil helped pull soyoil futures higher as well. Grains were...
Market Commentary: Technicals Are Breaking Down
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with a collapsing crude oil market and sharp selloffs in European commodity markets pressuring values. Tuesday’s Crop Progress report failed to offer much bullish influence for prices and new crop corn and soybeans pulled back. Wheat attempted to bou...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13-17 June 2022 Russia launched its harvesting campaign which pushed grain prices down, especially in the Southern Federal District. However, there are several factors to review on this market. Even though the first crop harvested is winter barley, all grains remained bea...
Market Commentary: Wheat Collapses on U.S. Dollar Rally; Soyoil, Soymeal Follow Technical Calls; Corn Tests $8
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week, but hints of strength were found in key markets. Specifically, July corn futures, while posting a loss for the day, managed to test $8 despite choppy, low-volume trade. The fact the corn market only settled 4 cents lower is notable given the massive me...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6-10 June 2022 Russian markets remained bearish, however the market where prices are formed – Black Sea export market – was more dead than alive. Export purchases are a gamble because of the unclear situation on the Ukrainian front. Azov and Black Sea ports tr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls as U.S. Dollar Rises; Soy Complex in Red Ahead of NOPA Report; U.S. to Build Grain Silos in Poland
The CBOT was lower again on Tuesday as fresh economic lockdowns in China and another day of selloffs in macroeconomic markets weighed on ag futures. The soy complex led the way lower with all three legs settling in the red amid fears of waning demand as China combats rising COVID-19 cases with...
Market Commentary: WASDE Sees Larger Corn, Wheat Stocks & Higher Soy Prices; Market Attention Turns to Weather
CBOT markets were mostly quiet and weaker overnight heading into the June WASDE report from USDA. The report was generally in-line with expectations, which left the markets to generally drift lower after its release. Notably, soybean futures posted larger declines than other markets, due to wea...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for increased ending stocks of U.S. corn by 40 million bushels. U.S. exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April and export inspection data for the month of May. Foreign corn ending st...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 30 May – 3 June 2022 Russian markets remained bearish, however in certain geographical areas prices were stagnant where sellers are playing a wait and see game. Interestingly, in Siberia wheat depreciated dramatically. In the export market, better margins are attra...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Higher on Spread Trade, Commercial Demand; Wheat Falls Ahead of Russia-Turkey Talks
Non-Russia fundamentals were finally at the forefront of the CBOT on Tuesday with corn and soybean futures rallying on strong commercial demand and bull spreading. Wheat futures pulled back and posted 20-cent losses as Russia and Turkey prepare for what most (including WPI) expect to be unfruit...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rally as Russia Blows Up Hopes for Export Corridor
Over the weekend, Russia intensified its offensive in eastern Ukraine and bombed a Cargill-owned export facility in southern Ukraine. The export facility formerly shipped some 1 MMT of sunflower oil annually. The heightened attacks and export facility bombing cast serious doubt about Russia&rsq...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s spring planting has reached 13.182 Mha, 78 percent of the expected acreage. Of that, 4.553 Mha were sown to corn (83 percent of expectations) and 4.574 Mha were planted to sunflower seeds (70 percent of the expected area). South Korea’s POSCO Inte...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower as Ukraine Export Corridor Talks Continue; EPA Releases 2022 Biofuel Mandates
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week with cattle and soyoil the only major markets to post gains. China is on its Dragon Boat holiday, which kept markets quiet as few developments in the cash market were expected. USDA’s report of old crop corn sales to unknown destinations offered s...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday
After sharp losses earlier in the week, the market turned around today for everything but July corn. Egypt’s GASC paid a record sum for wheat, indicating prices will remain elevated and enabling a push higher today for futures. Ukraine says it continues to work with the UN and others to e...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Long Liquidation, Ukraine Export Rumors; Hogs Rally as Shanghai Ends Lockdowns
The CBOT attempted to stabilize overnight and in early-morning trade on Wednesday, but headlines from the Black Sea and persistent long liquidation pushed grains sharply lower for the second straight day. Soybeans found support from old and new crop export sales to China, but gains were limited...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 May 2022 Russian weather forecasting center chief Roman Wilfand is predicting a good grains and oilseeds crop this season. Cool temperatures in May are not critical as long as there is sufficient moisture in the soil. This season temperatures were mild and there wer...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 16-20 May 2022 As of 17 May, spring planting was in line with last year, yet still behind 2020 by 40 percent and 2019 by 30 percent, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Earlier in the season the government was trying to stabilize prices for inputs and banne...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a maximum of 12.25 percent as a measure to control inflation that has been complicated by the Russia/Ukraine “tensions” and relat...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally as Russia Rejects Ukrainian Export Corridors; U.S. Corn, Soy Planting Makes Strong Progress
CBOT grains posted slight gains for the day while the soy complex worked its way lower as traders unwound long grain/short soy spreads that were placed last week. Wheat moved higher on news that Russia will not allow the export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea unless NATO suspends its econo...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Parliament approved duty-free imports of agricultural products from Ukraine for a one-year period. The U.S. is reportedly considering lifting a ban in potassium fertilizer from Belarus if the country will allow the export of Ukrainian ag products through to Lith...
Market Commentary – Unsettled but Not Rudderless
Commodity traders should be grateful they are not equity traders. The broader economy presents less certainty than agricultural balance sheets that will take time to rebalance. Russia is trying to exploit food insecurity by offering to allow Ukrainian exports provided sanctions are dropped. Wes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 May 2022 Most businesses were closed from 1-9 May as Russians celebrated Soviet holidays. Trade has now resumed and there is a bearish mood on all fronts. Exporters decreased their interest in the Black Sea ports and local currency strengthened thus solidifying the b...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA’s outlook is that the U.S. corn crop will be 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3 percent from last year. The corn yield is projected at 177.0 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. The ve...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...
Jurisdictional Mayhem; War and Farm Policy; War and Food Inflation
Jurisdictional Mayhem According to the Constitution, the U.S. Congress has the power to regulate trade among the several states, but it does not have the obligation and there is confusion when it does not. The Supreme Court is being asked to intercede on behalf of pork producers who dislike Cal...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 May 2022 Russian grain traders have continued to decrease their bids in the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports which are now 100 percent controlled by Russia. All Ukrainian ports are blocked and vessels loaded earlier cannot move any further. However, the main reason behind...
Canadian Rescue?
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization says 25 MMT of exportable grain are stuck in Ukraine and threatening global food security. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says his government will work to help Ukraine export this grain, but the logistical hurdles are daunting. The first...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukrainian President Zelenskiy called on the international community to end the Russian blockade of Ukraine’s export ports to avoid “a food crisis in the world caused by Russia’s aggressive actions.” President Zelenskiy’s request is at odds with...
Market Commentary: Macro-market Weakness Pressures CBOT; Wheat, Corn Fundamentals Increasingly Bullish
The CBOT ended the week on a mixed note with the soy complex continuing its selloff with additional pressure from sharp losses in palm oil futures. Corn was pulled lower by the soybean weakness and from a much-improved weather outlook for the U.S. in the next two weeks. Wheat futures were the o...
Market Commentary: Cinco de Mayo was about Wheat
Action elsewhere was modest but there was large volume in the wheat pits with a second day in a row of strong closes. Corn and soybeans gained a few pennies but remain well off from their highs. USDA’s Export Sales report affirmed the demand for U.S. crops. Old crop wheat sales were high...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 25-29 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2022 grain crop at 123 MMT mostly due to an additional 1 Mha of planted area. Winter crops, which are planted over 19 Mha), are reportedly in good and satisfactory condition. Oilseeds are forec...
Wheat Predator to Protectionist
Back in January, U.S. wheat growers were demanding that USTR file a WTO case against India for exceeding its de minimis limit of subsidies capped at 10 percent of the value of wheat production. The demand was presaged by a U.S. government counternotification to the WTO that New Delhi had substa...
Market Commentary: Vegoils Crash on Export Ban Reality; U.S. Corn Planting Slowest Since 2013
The CBOT waivered near contract and all-time highs in various commodities on Monday with better weather forecasts in the U.S. offering pressure. Moreover, a slow realization that Indonesia won’t be able to maintain an export ban on palm oil sent soyoil futures 5 percent lower, a move whic...
Market Commentary: Vegoils Rally, Pull Soybeans Higher; Brazil Sees Driest April in 17 Years; Corn Firms on Export Rumors
U.S. farmers are being patient marketing old crop corn and soybean stocks amid ongoing weather concerns in the U.S. Cash soy crush margins are near record highs at $3/bushel, which is keeping basis firm and increasing competition between exporters and crushers. Brazilian weather trends ar...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that the first 3.5 Mha of spring crops have been planted out of 53.6 Mha forecast. This year’s planting pace is in line with past year’s and around 12 Mha of winter wheat has been fertilized. An est...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported expectations that spring crops will be planted on 81.3 Mha of land, an increase of 1 Mha from last year. Agriculture Minister Dmitriy Patrushev expects the crop to reach 123 MMT, with wheat accounting for 80 MM...
Dishonorable Food; Guantes Para Niños in Mexico; Build Back Never
Dishonorable Food Eddy Wax in Politico points out that Western agribusiness companies continue to operate in Russia despite the war on Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy characterizes the agribusiness companies continuing to supply Russia as “flooded with our blood.” B...
Black Sea Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-8 April 2022 During the first week of April, the Russian grain market was predominantly bearish especially on the export front. On the domestic side, the war with Russia in Ukraine, and therefore the expected increased domestic consumer demand, started to raise selling...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Despite Benign WASDE; Soyoil, Soybeans, Corn Post Technically Bullish Days
CBOT markets firmed heading into the April WASDE and continued their strength thereafter, despite a relatively benign USDA report. USDA stuck to its measured approach in estimating losses to South American soybean production as well as the Russia-Ukraine war. USDA’s policy is always to av...
Ukraine Miniseries - Part III - Russian Advantage
Owning the Passage Russia is still able and will be able to export commodities. Sanctions do not include food. No one will deny countries like Egypt access to cheaper wheat to feed their people. And many of the countries that have been buying Russian wheat and barley will continue to do so.&nbs...
Ukraine Miniseries: Part II
This is the second in a three-part series of reports from WPI’s analysts in Ukraine. This article involves their opinion of Ukrainian agriculture in the weeks ahead. Looking Inward Crop Substitution: Russia may not change its crop production focus for the upcoming campaign, but Ukrainian...
Great Power Struggle; Supply Response Needed; Pressuring Mexico
Great Power Struggle Deceased U.S. Senator John McCain called Russia a “gas station masquerading as a country” but it is also a major grocery store, especially when combined with Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is now threatening global energy, fertilizer, and food supplies. Rising prices f...
Ukraine Miniseries: Part I
This is the first of a three-part special series of reports from WPI’s analysts in Ukraine. The first installment looks at what the war’s impact on agriculture looks like at this juncture. The second article to be posted tomorrow focuses on the sector’s prospects for productio...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 March-1 April 2022 Last week the domestic market went bearish. Prices for staple grains plummeted to relatively traditional levels after recent historic highs. Bearish trends effected all types of wheat and peas. While barley and corn remained quite volatile, the trend...
Borscht Belt Economics
Borscht is considered comfort food in Russia and the cost to make it is reportedly rising. Bloomberg reports that since the start of the war, the cost of cabbage is up 16 percent and onion prices have risen by 18 percent. Based on FAO data, Russia produces 39.6 pounds per capita of cabbage but...
Market Commentary: CBOT Adds War-Risk Premium Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT rallied to start the week after news broke out this weekend of Russian shelling and bombardments of Ukrainian grain storage facilities and export ports near Odessa. Short-term worries center around grain losses and Ukraine’s ability to feed its population while long-term worries...
Ukraine Changes Agriculture; Ukraine Changes Economies; Ukraine Affects Trade Policy
Ukraine Changes Agriculture CoBank analysts say that the war in Ukraine will have long term impact on grain markets. Indeed, if one just considers the following list of policy actions that have occurred since the war broke out: At least 31 export bans have been imposed around the world on cere...
Oilseeds Highlights: Soybeans are King
The big news of the week is USDA’s Prospective Plantings report showing farmers plan to sow more acres to soybean than to corn. If that outcome is realized, it will only be the third time this has occurred in modern U.S. farming history. The long-term dominance is why it is known as King...
Ukrainian Grain and Oilseeds Market
Regional Update Ukraine: Planting According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of 24 March, in 11 regions of Ukraine, spring grains and oilseeds were planted on 150,000 ha out of 5.99 Mha planned (-1.689 Mha compared to the previous year). Specifically, spring wheat was planted on 22,500...
Market Commentary: Oil Slips on Shanghai Lockdown, Pressures Soy Complex; Traders Liquidate Risk Before Reports
Risk-off ahead of the Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports was the theme du jour. The soy complex and wheat futures led the CBOT lower with corn following on disappointing export inspections data. News that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are meeting in Turkey to discuss a cease fir...
Oilseeds Update – Machinations in a Tight Market
Production and Incentives Late planted soybeans in Argentina are filling pods and are still too dry. In Brazil, the soybean harvest is 69 percent completed. As a result of the war, Ukraine may only plant half the usual sunflowers and this exacerbates an already tight global oilseeds market.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Out of Steam
It was mostly a turnaround day as risk is priced in as much as desired and there were some bearish indicators: South America is getting moisture and has become competitive. Ukraine may still produce some grain. HRW got some needed rains. Export sales were generally underwhelming. This does no...
Market Commentary: Inflation Bites Stocks, Boosts Commodities; Meat Stocks Grow Sharply
The CBOT was sharply higher overnight amid wide support from European ag markets and global energy values. The day session, however, saw traders take a more tempered view of world fundamentals and the markets pulled back. Wheat ended lower for the day as it continues its whipsaw trading pattern...
Sabotaging Ukrainian Agriculture
EU leaders are accusing Moscow of deliberately destroying Ukraine’s food production and infrastructure. They charge that Russia has a long history of using food as a weapon, including against Ukraine in the Early 1930’s. The question is how long will it take to rebuild once the war...
Black Sea Regional Analysis: Ukrainian Grain and Oilseeds Market
Planting Update According to the Ministry of Agriculture, on 22 March the spring planting campaign started in the southern regions of Ukraine. Spring grains were planted in Odesa region on 30,000 hectares out of 750,000 hectares planned. Farmers in Mykolayiv region continued to dress winter gra...
Russia-Ukraine War Commodity Perspective
According to reports from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense intelligence operations, Russia has been purposefully bombing and/or commandeering agricultural machinery in the Ukraine, at least through last week. The latest was in the Sumska Oblast in north central Ukraine where a warehouse full...
Market Commentary: Lack of Peace Talks Sends Wheat Higher; Corn and Soybeans Post Bullish Breakouts
Early morning fund buying pushed the CBOT higher and markets held onto those gains through the day’s trading. The failure of meaningful peace talks to develop in Ukraine over the weekend sparked a round of buying as the implications for continued war in the country are obviously bullish g...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Profit Taking; Corn, Soy Charts Bullish; Another La Nina?
The CBOT ended weaker as few traders want to add risk heading into a weekend where unpredictable political and headline risk will be key features. The market’s recent volatility is pushing some traders to the sidelines and reducing trading volume. Traders are closely watching the war in U...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Peace Talk Rumors; Macro Markets Jump on Rate Hike and Chinese Policy Shift
Rumors and statements from Russia and Ukraine regarding a possible ceasefire agreement pressured CBOT markets Wednesday while sending U.S. stocks sharply higher. On Tuesday, Russian President Putin said peace talks were stalled but Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that talks were still in...
Black Sea Analysis: Agriculture in the Ukrainian War Zone
Editor's Note: Despite the war going on all around them, this update is provided by WPI’s consultants in Kyiv. We know that Ana and her new baby have made it to Poland; others on the team no doubt are enduring hardships. Yuriy even expressed guilt that this is the best they can do under t...
Market Commentary: Oil Selloff Pressures Soy Complex; Corn, Wheat Rally on Fund Buying
Corn and wheat futures settled higher Tuesday with influence from the ongoing war in Ukraine, poor U.S. winter wheat ratings, and falling crude oil prices. The corn market shrugged off early weakness created by the oil selloff as end-user and importer demand picked up on the break. The weak ene...
Oilseeds Update: Massive Disruptions and Change
This week’s USDA WASDE report was a blip on the screen compared with the intense focus and disruption of Russia warring on Ukraine. Due to the scale of these two countries in global agriculture, the war has caused markets themselves to explode. Early in the war one European analytical fir...
Oat Export Stoppage
Ukraine has announced an export stoppage for various agricultural commodities, including for oats, and Russia said it would restrict exports to certain markets but has not specified what or where. USDA today cut its forecast for wheat exports from these two major suppliers. The WASDE report rai...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s ongoing attempt to take over Ukraine continues to drive Black Sea, European, and global grain markets. Ukraine’s export ports will remain closed until the conflict is resolved and maritime trade can continue peacefully. The EU Commission has receiv...
Oilseeds Highlights: War Comes to Oilseeds
Before we get to the 800-pound bear (war), let’s cover some market basics. This would be an extraordinary market situation even without facing down a very bad bear. Brazil’s soybean exports have begun to increase and ANEC says they will hit 11.7 MMT in March. But China is buying a l...
Seriously, Read This
WPI has reported market data and analysis from Ukraine (and Russia) since 2005. We have accomplished this through our consultants in the region. If you’ve paid attention, they have been flawlessly on time every week for 17 years, until this week. We shared emails with them last week...
Market Commentary: Another Raucous Day
The war in Ukraine continues to push commodity futures higher and today was not the end in that trend. The market is scrambling to replace the wheat and sunflower oil normally supplied from the Black Sea region and the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index indicates this is the largest gain in commodi...