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Anomalous China Trade Year

The Biden Administration announced that it will ensure enforcement of the Phase One trade deal with China but that will not be much of a challenge when it...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.565/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...

Same Old with China; Mexico Plunges; Carbon Support

Same Old with China U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai detailed today how the Biden Administration would largely continue the status quo approach to C...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest has started in the northern tip of the country, which was most affected by this year’s drought. Recently, hot t...

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  World wheat prices continue to rally after USDA surprised the market with smaller-than-expected U.S. 2020/21 ending stocks last week. A...

PM Post - Good Inspections

THE OPEN November beans:  7 lower December meal: 1.40 lower December soyoil:  15 higher December corn:  3/4 lower December wheat:  6 hi...

AM Outlook - Grains Over Beans

GOOD MORNING, Prices started the PM session lower with corn prices slowly recovering led by wheat.    Harvest proceeds forward as trading volumes...

Technical Views - Mostly Sideways

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.22c/bu while oilshare trades at 47.24%.   Dec/March corn trades 8 1/4c to 8 1/2c, Dec 21/22 inverse trades down to...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Lump of Coal; Outcomes Not Means

Lump of Coal About 17 countries plus the EU presently have national carbon pricing. Some countries are threatening border taxes to prevent so-called carbon...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.5525/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Disappearing Fertilizer Supply

On 26 July, WPI wrote about the Department of Commerce decision to consider countervailing duties (CVD) and anti-dumping duties (AD) on imports of urea amm...

Energy and GDP

Rising energy prices should have an impact on global GDP growth in 2021, though the ratio has been declining. Over the past 20 years, expenditures on energ...

PM Post - Buy Grains/Sell Soy

THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal:  1.60 higher December soyoil: 12 lower December corn:  6 higher December wheat:  12 higher T...

AM Outlook - Two Potential Plays

GOOD MORNING, Prices for the soy complex are mixed, with beans lower, products trading both sides.   Oilshare is seeing some profit-taking on the...

Technical Views - Post-Report Adjustments

SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 1.11c/bu, which will incentivize crushers to do all they can.  Oilshare trades higher to 47.0%.  Dec/March cor...

Market Commentary: Overplayed Then Corrected

The NASS stocks report initially felt like a bomb had dropped but after the trade assessed the situation with a clearer head, markets came back off their l...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.255/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&n...

Practical Politics

Whether Buenos Aires or Washington, politicians are finding a practical middle to prevent all out failure.  In Argentina, after a devastating blow ear...

PM Post - Post-Report Adjustments

THE OPEN Nov beans:  4 higher Dec meal:  1.60 lower Dec soyoil:  90 higher Dec corn:  4 higher Dec wheat: 9 higher The markets opened a...

Export Sales

USDA Reports for Sept 17-23, 2021: Wheat:  Net sales of 290,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 30 perc...

Technical Views - Mostly Firm

SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades firmer as well to 46.20%.  Dec/March corn trades from 7 3/4c carry to 8c.  Dec...

AM Outlook - Bears are Watching

GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to put on good rallies.  Features overnight include higher oilshare and soyoil strength, (on the back of strong pal...

Market Commentary: CBOT Firms in Pre-Grain Stocks Report Positioning

The CBOT ended higher on Wednesday after a mixed overnight session gave way to day-session gains. Outside markets recovered some of yesterday’s losse...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...

Pragmatism versus Philosophy; Big Pig

Pragmatism versus Philosophy Farmers are generally conservative when it comes to government, except when it involves benefits for themselves. This is playi...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Chinese Live Hog Market Facing More Challenges     Despite recent market optimism that improved genetics and a better stream of ne...

Inflation Implications

Concerns about inflation exceeding transitory terms have increased in recent days but it was reported yesterday that inventories of consumer goods have sta...

Ag Review - September 2021

For 23 years, WPI’s monthly AgReview publication has provided in-depth analysis of markets and policy. Responding to changes in both business economi...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 September 2021 Prices for grain crops (except for corn) in the domestic Russian market increased but at a more moderate rate t...

PM Post - Up Leveling

THE OPEN Nov beans:  2 higher  Dec meal:  .20 higher Dec soyoil:  32 higher Dec corn:  3 higher Dec wheat:  7 higher The mark...

AM Outlook - "V" is for Volatility

GOOD MORNING,  Prices were mixed overnight but gradually turned higher led by wheat, as traders seem more pre-occupied by what is going on in outside...

Technical Views - Leveling Up

SPREADS Dec crush trades 1.03c/bu while oilshare is steady at 45.78%.  Dec/March corn trades out to 8 1/4c from 7 3/4c while the Dec 21/22 inverse fal...

Barley Market Tightens

The global barley market is only about one-eighth the size of the corn market but to major exporters (France, Russia, Australia, Canada) and to major impor...

U.S. – EU Agreement; Macro Bearishness

U.S. – EU Agreement Although France was balking at agreeing to the 17-page transatlantic agreement, tomorrow’s meeting of the U.S. – EU T...

PM Post - Macros Prompt Fund Selling

THE OPEN Nov beans:  5 3/4 lower Dec meal:  1.40 lower Dec soyoil:  15 lower Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat:  1 higher The markets opene...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Pakistan sees a wheat cargo of 59,700 MT arrive with another 58,000 MT to arrive this week. T...

Technical Views - Weight of the Soy Complex

SPREADS Dec crush trades up to 1.00c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.98%.  Spreads trade from 7 1/2c to 7 3/4c for Dec/March, while Dec 21/22 inverse t...

AM Outlook - Oil is the Big Kahuna

GOOD MORNING, The markets have put in a good rally as we head into the Sep. 1 Quarterly Stocks report.   Corn rallied on any number of items, inc...

Market Commentary: Corn, Crude Oil Rally; Lean Hogs Hit Limit-Gains

Confirmation of a 300,000+ MT sale of soybeans to China, plus rumors of continued interest from Chinese buyers, put a bid under the CBOT on Monday. Corn fu...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Corn Crude Comparison

The December corn contract rose 2.4 percent today and WTI Crude was up 1.7 percent. The corn price is rising in the middle of otherwise bearish indicators...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Despite stable FAS prices near $200-205/MT, Argentina’s market saw traded volume decrease. Even so, October is almost here, and farmers have sol...

PM Post - Outside Money Boost

THE OPEN Nov beans:  2 higher Dec meal:  2.00 higher Dec soyoil:  50 lower Dec corn:  1/2 lower Dec wheat:  1 lower The markets op...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The United Nations is tendering for 200,000 MT of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government with a submission deadline of 8 O...

Technical Views - Sideways Range-bound

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 93.70c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.51%.  Spreads are firmer with Dec/March corn trading from 7 1/2c to 7 3/4c, while De...

AM Outlook - Bearish Tone

GOOD MORNING, Prices opened on a mixed note overnight, higher beans and wheat, lower corn.  Weather is wide open for harvest.  Soyoil futures ope...

Cattle on Feed

Cattle on feed totaled 11.2 million head on September 1, 2021. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2020. This is the second highest September 1...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

USDA Inventory Reports: Hogs Bullish, Cattle More Bearish

USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today with most all categories coming in below pre-report expectations. Total inventory was 75.4 million h...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Wine over Beer; Bad Timing; PR Approach; Korean Hope

Wine over Beer Policymakers hoping to compel the citizenry into drastic actions to cut carbon emissions have poured cold water on their messaging with the...

Minor Misnomer

In agriculture, there are major and minor crops. This seemingly disparaging characterization relates solely to the amount of acreage utilized. Minor crops...

PM Post - Risk-off, Profit-taking, Position-leveling

THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 lower Dec meal:  .20 lower Dec soyoil:  5 lower Dec corn: 1 lower Dec wheat: 1/2 lower The markets opened lower on a cautio...

Am Outlook - Notable Stories

GOOD MORNING, Prices were mixed in the evening, higher for beans and soyoil with corn struggling and all turning in the red by the AM hour.  Soyoil pr...

Technical Views - Round We Go

SPREADS Dec crush trades up to 91.20c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 45.55%.   Dec/March trades from 7 1/2c to 8c, while Dec 21/22 trades fro...

Market Commentary: Off the Bottom

The market opened soft with wheat and soyoil as leaders and the rest in the hole, but a route was found out of the hole by everything but soymeal and feede...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed and Hogs and Pigs Preview

Tomorrow, USDA will release two important reports: the monthly Cattle on Feed Report and the quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory.   Analysts’...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2925/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1775/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...

Killing CBAM; Nation Killing; Markets versus Regulation

Killing CBAM European Commission Executive Vice President Frans Timmerman says that the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism would not apply to Japan due to...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Chinese Live Hog Price Decline Accelerates After Holiday     The fall optimism that emerged mid-summer with respect to the return...

PM Post - As Called

THE OPEN Nov beans:  2 higher Dec meal: 1.10 lower Dec soyoil:  40 higher Dec corn: 2 lower Dec wheat:   4 higher The markets opened as...

Export Sales

For the period September 10-16, 2021. Wheat:  Net sales of 355,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 42 percent from the previous week, but up...

Technical Views - Corn/Soymeal Lower

SPREADS Dec oilshare trades to 45.20% while crush trades up to 89.85c.  Dec/March corn narrows into 7 1/4c from 7 1/2c.  Dec 21/22 trades from 24...

AM Outlooked - Mixed Day

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with wheat and soyoil leading the way in strength.  The PM session featured more congestion trade as harvest rolls on a...

Market Commentary: Real Reaction to Fake RVOs; Oats, Wheat Rally

The CBOT finished higher on Wednesday with corn and soyoil trading a volatile day with rumors and reports of new EPA biofuel requirements and suspicions of...

Wheat Status Quo

Bulgaria is headed toward record crops this year with wheat output more than doubling since joining the EU. However, the overall record for countries joini...

September Cold Storage Report

August total red meat and poultry stocks were steady compared to July but down 14.3 percent from August 2020. Once again, beef, pork, chicken, and turkey s...

China In-Country Analysis

Today's China analysis is delayed due to the country's Harvest Moon Festival which delayed delivery of current data. ...

Blinding Reality; Differential Distortions; Subs are Good

Blinding Reality UN’s Food Systems Summit opens tomorrow and like much else about the institution, it proves to be a bust. It started with the usual...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.255/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0575/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Healthy Rally

THE OPEN Nov beans:  9 higher Dec meal:  .20 lower Dec soyoil:  120 pts higher Dec corn:  4 higher Dec wheat:  10 higher Prices op...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 September 2021 Prices for grain crops in the domestic Russian market mainly increased. In the Ural region and in some areas in...

AM Outlook - Mixed

GOOD MORNING, Prices started the evening on a tentative note, but beans, wheat, and soyoil prices rallied into the morning hours taking corn along with it...

Technical Views - Upside Follow-through

SPREADS Dec crush is 88.65% with oilshare at 44.83%.  Spreads are wider with Dec/March corn trading from 7 /34c to 8 1/2c carry, while Dec 21/Dec 22 t...

China: Will It, or Won’t It, Meet Phase One in Year Two?

As the two-year China-U.S. Phase One trade agreement nears its final months, and seasonal exports trend up, what China does for the rest of the year has be...

Double Exposure; New Old Era

Double Exposure In a concept paper yesterday at the WTO, the U.S. outlined its lessons from the pandemic in terms of a more resilient planet. Notably missi...

PM Post - Loss of Upside Steam

THE OPEN Nov beans:  3 higher  Dec meal:  1.30 higher Dec soyoil:  15 higher Dec corn:  1 lower  Dec wheat:  4 lower Pri...

Missing Energy Diversity

The theme of the pandemic has been the need for reshoring and diversification of supply chains to strengthen future resilience from such black swan events...

AM Outlook - Still Awaiting Upside Reversal

GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight continue to trend lower for grains, while attempting to put in some stabilization trade for soyoil and beans.   Ou...

Technical Views - Soy to Lead

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 89c while oilshare trades to 44.76%.  Dec/March corn carry trades from 8c to 8 1/4c, while Dec 21/22 trades from 20c inver...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Morocco is forecast by USDA-FAS to be importing about 4.5 MMT of wheat in 2021/22 – dow...

Market Commentary: Macro Risk-Off Trade Pressures CBOT

The CBOT was lower to start the week with widespread “risk off” trade taking place in light of weaker macro markets. U.S. and world stocks were...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0075/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&n...

Reap What You Sow; Energy Poverty; Deadly Food

Reap What you Sow French President Emmanuel Macron withdrew his ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over the shift of a submarine purchase from his count...

Methane and Climate Policies Ag Focus before U.N. Climate Meeting

There was a lot of activity last week in preparation for the upcoming United Nations climate meeting to be held in Glasgow, including a new U.S.-EU methane...

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  World wheat markets are steady/higher this week after futures markets rallied despite the September WASDE’s addition of 4 MMT to...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn It’s been an interesting week for the corn market with significant volumes traded. Almost every exporter has been pushing for grain, paying up f...

Meathead Packing Policy

Last week, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack charged the U.S. meat industry with unethically profiting off of Americans during the pandemic. A charge totally refu...

PM Post - Beans Beaten Worst

THE OPEN Nov beans:  17 lower Dec meal:  2.80 lower Dec soyoil:  108 pts lower Dec corn:  11 lower Dec wheat:  10 lower The market...

AM Outlook - Exiting Some Longs

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board on more fund selling as weather moving forward continues to favor a good pace of harvest.  Outside mar...

Technical Views - Retrace Lower

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare trades at 45.0%.  Dec/March corn trades out to 8c from 7c, while Dec 21/22 trades from 23 1/2c carry...

Market Commentary: Macro Risk Off

Don’t take it personally that markets across the board showed weakness today. Exceptions being the dollar and lean hogs. The problem is dropping cons...

Will Biofuels Go Sky High in Taking to the Air?

The Biden Administration last week announced an effort to lower carbon emissions in aviation, targeting a 20 percent drop in aviation emissions by 2030 and...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0875/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close...

Biden Buckles; Future-casting Politics

Biden Buckles Much the way Donald Trump’s threat to end NAFTA united Congressional Republicans and Democrats in support of the USMCA, China has manag...

PM Post - Macro Sell-off

THE OPEN Nov beans:  10 lower Dec meal;  2.30 lower Dec soyoil:  52 lower Dec corn:  2 1/2 lower Dec wheat:  3 3/4 lower The marke...

AM Outlook - Moving Lower

GOOD MORNING, The markets were lower overnight as we cap off a week that contained a rally, and will end with good harvest weather across the heart of the...

Technical Views - Lower Range Profit-tacking

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 86c/bu while oilshare trades at 45.44%.   Dec/March corn trades from 7 1/2c to 7 3/4c, while Dec 21/Dec 22 trades fro...

Market Commentary: Tenuous Nudges

Without a lot driving the direction of the market, today was like a bickering old couple where bulls and bears disagreed over nothing important. Trades cou...

Livestock Round Up: Back to School Outlook for Dairy

After on-line, remote learning, and shortened and staggered weeks at schools, this fall semester offers some hope to return to a more normal year for dairy...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.295/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.13/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. ...

Subs and Trade; International Tyranny; ESG Green Washing

Subs and Trade China has applied for membership to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a move that should re...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 617,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year high—were up 59 percent from the previous week and up noticeably f...

PM Post - Choppy but Constructive

THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 higher Dec meal;  2.70 higher Dec soyoil: 34 lower Dec corn:  1 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 3 1/2 lower The markets opened as exp...

Technical Views - Ownership

SPREADS Crush trades down to 91c/bu with oilshare at 45.89%.  Spreads were firmer with Dec/March corn narrowing into 7c from 7 1/2c.  Dec 21/Dec...

AM Outlook - More Upside Follow-through

GOOD MORNING, The surprising strength of the rallies this week caught bears off guard, creating a short-covering rally which found little selling pressure...

Individual Action; AMR for Everyone

Individual Action An anti-animal agriculture group falsely calling itself Americans For Family Farmers is promoting legislation entitled Exposing Agricultu...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1225/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...

Food to Follow Fossil Fuels

The strategy in Europe and now developing in the U.S. is to replace fossil fuels with new green energy. Europe also wants to replace food produced using ch...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Producers Cut Output as Prices Plummet With China’s leading hog producers reporting their monthly sales for August, the country&rs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 September 2021 Prices for grain crops in the domestic Russian market mainly increased. In the Ural region and in some areas in...

PM Post - Weakness Gets Purchased

THE OPEN Nov beans: 6 higher Dec meal:  .10 lower Dec soyoil:  50 higher Dec corn: 6 higher Dec wheat:  3 higher Prices opened as called but...

AM Outlook - Momentum Lower is Stalled

GOOD MORNING, Prices begin the PM session mixed, led higher by corn with wheat lower, but most are higher heading into the close.  The soy complex is...

Technical Views - Upside Follow-through

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.72%.   Corn spreads are firmer across the board.  Dec/March corn trades into...

Market Commentary: Day Shift Follow-Through

After higher closes overnight (except soymeal), markets showed follow-through and opened higher this morning (except soymeal). While corn, wheat, and soyoi...

Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad

Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2025/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0075/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. ...

Proposed Taxes to Pay for the Reconciliation Bill

As we wrote yesterday, while the House Agriculture Committee finished its version of the reconciliation bill, the House Ways and Means Committee is working...

China Boosts USA Sorghum

Unlike corn, China does not impose a tariff rate quota on sorghum imports and now the Middle Kingdom is hoovering up all the sorghum that American farmers...

PM Post - Upside Follow-through

THE OPEN Nov beans:   9 higher Dec meal:  1.00 higher Dec soyoil:  70 higher Dec corn:   3 1/2 higher Dec wheat:  10 hig...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Turkey has stopped the import tax on wheat (45 percent), barley (35 percent), and corn (25 pe...

AM Outlook - Waiting on Exports

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher on the early night session as charts build on gains and on chatter that China has been actively purchasing US beans. ...

Technical Views - Trading in Ranges

SPREADS December crush pops up to 91c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.10%.  Spreads firm with Dec/March corn narrowing into 8 1/2c from 9c carry. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Grains After a long period of below-normal rains, September started with meaningful precipitation for a large portion of Argentina’s agricultural are...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1325/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $6.87/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&n...

PM Post - Continued Weakness

THE OPEN Nov beans:  3 lower  Dec meal:  2.00 lower Dec soyoil:  3 higher Dec corn:  8 lower Dec wheat:  5 1/2 lower The mark...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Morocco is rumored to be suspending its import duty on soft wheat starting 1 November to ensure sufficient domestic supply and maintain...

Breaking: Fire at JBS Beef Plant

A fire broke out at JBS’ beef packing plant in Grand Island, Nebraska late Sunday night. The fire was reportedly caused  by a boiler exploding i...

Sino-American Similarities; Business Flips; Cost of Dependency

Sino-American Similarities While China and the U.S. are in a competitive battle both strategically and economically, there are many similarities between th...

AM Outlook - Seesaw Continues

GOOD MORNING, The markets opened on a steady note, but the weight of harvest upon the markets sent prices into the red even though they remain off their Fr...

Technical Views - Spreads and Oilshare

SPREADS Dec crush trades down to new lows at 84.14c/bu, while oilshare trades to 45.10%.  Dec/March corn trades into 8 3/4c from 9 1/4c.  DecMarc...

Pandemic "Food Crisis"

Politico interviewed 11 leaders in U.S. agriculture and determined that based on the pandemic, the food system is not ready for prime time. The thrust of t...

WASDE Soyoil

The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound...

WASDE Soymeal

The soybean meal price is forecast at $360 per short ton, down 25 dollars...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, ending stocks, and lower cru...

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. corn is for larger supplies, increased feed and residual use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks.  Projec...

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stock...

Export Sales

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period August27-September 2, 2021. Wheat:  Net sales of 388,400 metric tons (MT) for2021/2022...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.175/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $6.885/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

A Closer Look at the WASDE and Inflation for Livestock

Today’s WASDE reduced the outlook for red meat and poultry production by 0.2 percent from August based on a lower outlook for red meat and a forecast...

Making Big Better; Papering Over/Jawboning; Policy; Powerfully Wrong

Making Big Better The Biden Administration claims that big is bad and that it wants to elevate competition, including by funneling cash to small meat proce...

PM Post - Split Decision

THE OPEN Nov beans:  3 higher Dec meal:  2.40 higher Dec soyoil:  24 lower Dec corn:  1 higher Dec wheat:  5 lower The markets ope...

Oilseed Bonanza

Rabobank reports that over $2 billion is being invested to expand North American oilseed crush capacity. Part will be to support the expansion in biodiesel...

AM Outlook - Soft Ahead of Report

GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight generally were steady after a week of pressure.  It is report day and the market has priced in a lot of bearish news, p...

Technical Views - Holding Pattern

SPREADS Dec. crush trades down to 90c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.43%.  Dec/March corn spread narrows into 8c from 9 1/4c.   Dec/March wh...

Market Commentary: Liquidating into the Report

A down day was in the forecast and down it was. December corn staged a minor comeback mid-session but could not hold and ended on a fractional loss. Decemb...

Knuckleheads; Non-Chemical Substitutes; Profound Revolution

Knuckleheads Aides to President Joe Biden charged U.S. meat packers with profiting off the pandemic and said they are going to “crack down on illegal...

Livestock Round Up: Blogs and FAQs Driving Policy Making

Yesterday, the White House posted a blog entitled “Addressing Concentration in the Meat-Processing Industry to Lower Food Prices for American Familie...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close.&n...

PM Post - Low on Gusto

THE OPEN Nov beans:  8 lower Dec meal:  1.00 lower Dec soyoil:  50 lower Dec corn:  3 lower Dec wheat: 12 lower The market opened weake...

Technical Views - Deeper Dive

SPREADS  Dec. crush falls to 97c/bu while oilshare sits at a steady 45.84%.    Dec/March corn trades from 9 1/2c to 9 3/4c carry.  Dec/...

AM Outlook - Soft Bottom

GOOD MORNING, Soft markets were seen overnight as harvest looms large with clear weather over the next 10 days.  The market continues to monitor progr...

Market Commentary: Fundamentals Pressure Wheat; Corn Soybeans Choppy Before WASDE

CBOT futures were muted as traders are largely positioning for the September WASDE report on Friday. Corn showed perhaps the greatest weakness, pushing to...

Change in Surplus Stocks

Weather reduced production coupled with increased demand have whittled down global surplus grain stocks, but the changes have not been uniform. China is th...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.095/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...

Disagreeing to Talk; Day of Reckoning

Disagreeing to Talk Developing countries oppose using a draft WTO text on agriculture as a basis for further negotiation, despite the fact it is merely a d...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomic Food Prices in July See Biggest Drop Since April 2017 With live hog and pork prices falling to breakeven levels, the overall food inflation r...

PM Post - Liquidation then Consolidation

THE OPEN Nov beans:  2 higher Dec meal:  .90 lower Dec soyoil:  50 higher Dec corn:  1 higher  Dec wheat:  2 lower The market...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 30 August-3 September Prices for grain crops in the Russian domestic market mainly increased. Export prices increased but so did the...

Technical Views - Balanced Approach

SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.00c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.42%.  Dec/March corn trades from 9 1/2c to 9 3/4c, while Sep/Dec recovers from a tra...

AM Outlook - Harvest Pressure versus WASDE Caution

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to find pressure as harvest looms but considering there is an impending September WASDE, there is also some pricing and short...

Specious on Trade; Weighing COVID and Biden

Specious on Trade When asked what it would take for the U.S. to re-engage in trade agreements like the CTTPP, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said, “So, I...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1975/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close...

Budget Reconciliation versus Farm Bill

The Biden Administration and Congressional Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package has $135 billion slated for the Agriculture Committ...

It is all Relative

The inflating costs of energy has some policymakers concerned about its impact on the economic recovery as consumers redirect their spending obligations. H...

PM Post - Funds Abandon Ship

THE OPEN November beans:  1 higher December meal:  .20 higher December soyoil:  15 higher December corn:   1 lower December wheat:...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Pakistan wheat prices are increasing, especially in the Punjab, which has caused the Pakistan...

Technical Views - Adjusting Ahead of the WASDE

SPREADS Board crush trends weaker while oilshare values are mostly steady.  Dec crush is trading at 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades at 46.20%.  Se...

AM Outlook - Firmer on Demand and Short-covering

GOOD MORNING, The USDA report is around the corner on Friday, Sep 10.    The markets are firmer overnight on a combination of short-covering, pri...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.24/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2625/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

U.S. Labor Day Holiday

The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 6 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. As a result, we will not upda...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Will Coming RVOs be a 2013-2016 Redux?

The 2021 and 2022 proposed RVOs, developed by EPA, have been under review at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for a week. As we reported last Frid...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.255/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.17/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Reality Check

What is it really worth? That is the fundamental question but technicals had been beating a path lower for the past several days. Today was a pause –...

Overwrought Reaction; Labor Shortages; Better Genes Oh My!

Overwrought Reaction New Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Cui Tiankai reinforced this week his reputation for hyperbole. He pointed to his country’s nu...

Export Sales

Exports for August 20-26, 2021 Wheat:  Net sales of 295,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 15 percent...

Complexity of Competitiveness

U.S. political leadership is focused on competitiveness but may be oversimplifying requirements for its achievement. Most specifically, the political syste...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2275/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&n...

Getting Competitive; Big to Rescue India

Getting Competitive President Joe Biden rationalized the withdrawal from Afghanistan yesterday by first saying it was “no longer in our national inte...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Inventories Surpass Pre-African Swine Fever Levels Last week, China’s Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), Ma...

PM Post - More Selling

THE OPEN Nov beans:  7 lower Dec meal: 1.00 lower Dec soyoil:  60 lower Dec corn:  6 lower Dec wheat:  2 1/2 lower The markets opened l...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 August 2021 Prices for grain crops (except corn) in the domestic Russian market followed last week’s trend and increased...

Technical Views - Hunting New Lows

SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.14c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.90%.  Sep/Nov congests from 6 1/2c inverse to 7c.  NOv/March beans trade out to...

AM Outlook - Slow Slide

GOOD MORNING, Prices in the night session started off the evening on a mixed note, mostly defensive, but losses accelerated in the last hour of trade. ...

Limits of Monetary Policy; Going for Mr./Ms. Big

Limits of Monetary Policy Progressives in the U.S. House of Representatives led by the Squad’s Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) are proving...

Ida Sinks More than Katrina

Chicago futures saw the December corn contract lose 8.5 cents today and November soybeans lost 10¾ cents reportedly based on uncertainty about expor...

PM Post - Technically Broke

THE OPEN Nov beans:  6 lower Dec meal:  .40 higher Dec soyoil:  90 lower Dec corn:  6 lower Dec wheat:  5 lower The markets opened...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Pakistan’s government says it will have about 530,000 MT of certified wheat seeds avail...

AM Outlook - Competitive Standstill

GOOD MORNING, Prices were weaker yesterday and are mixed this AM, with soyoil sporting the largest losses.   Oilshare is lower again as traders b...

Technical Views - Sideways Chop

SPREADS December crush traded to 1.14c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.85%.   Spreads were slightly firmer with Dec/March corn trading from 8c to...

Exaggerating Goliath; GI on Steroids; WTO Not WHO

Exaggerating Goliath Officials in the Biden Administration are determined to take down America’s big corporations and if they follow the focus of Kar...

Future Farmland Values Tied to Inflation and Taxes

USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) released the 2021 average farm real estate values. The average per acre value of land and buildings on f...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4275/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.235/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Katrina Informs Ida on Ag Export Impact

Hurricane Ida has finished barreling through the critical Louisiana grain export infrastructure and the question is what will be the impact? First, while I...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Soil moisture is becoming a problem for Argentina’s wheat crop. Crop conditions keep falling due to drought across the wheat-growing region and...

PM Post - Harvest Pressure; Waiting for Exports

THE OPEN Nov beans: 1 higher Dec meal:  .80 higher Dec soyoil:  20 lower Dec corn:  2 lower Dec wheat: 8 higher The market started the sessi...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s 2021/22 total grain exports have reached 7 MMT so far, up 10 percent from the same time last year.  The Taliban&rs...

AM Outlook - Bull-Bear Mixup

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed overnight with the key feature that of profit-taking in oilshare, with weaker soyoil futures weighing on beans.   ...

Technical Views - Mixed

SPREADS December crush trades to 1.13cbu while oilshare trades to 45.27%.  The Sep/Nov bean spread has moved from a 37c inverse down to 14c as we appr...

Trade Policy Labor; Recovery Wish List

Trade Policy Labor USTR’s annual National Trade Estimates Report is a good source of the barriers and problems confronted by U.S. exporters in other...

RFS Volume Rule Under Review: Going Retro for 2020

We reported on Monday that the EPA would be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.325/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Fertilizer Prices and Production

DTN reports that for the first time in about nine months there was no significant increase in fertilizer prices this past month. Among the eight major comp...

Market Commentary: Anomalous and Cautious

It was a unique trading day amidst the caution surrounding the lack of fresh influences. Unique in that trading ranges for corn and soybeans were unusually...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5075/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.3925/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Common Poverty; Saved by Drought; Vietnam Concessions

Common Poverty Chinese President Xi Jinping has taken the Communist manifesto to heart and declared a “common prosperity” for all Chinese. Soci...

Livestock Round Up: Meat Demand Remains Strong

USDA released its food price outlook this morning. Monthly July over June prices were up 0.5 percent for beef, 1.9 percent for poultry, and 2.2 percent for...

Export Sales

Exporters for the period August 13-19, 2021 Wheat:  Net sales of 116,000 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 62 percent fr...

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