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Export Sales

Export Sales for January 21-27, 2022  Wheat:  Net sales of 57,500 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 92 percent from the previous week and...

Worst Time; Microchips and Food

Worst Time The U.S. House Agriculture Committee has begun hearings in preparation for writing the 2023 version of the farm bill. This week’s hearings...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.225/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.55/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

No Border Barrier

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, responding to protests over a mandate that truckers crossing the border be vaccinated against COVID, says that the...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 24-28 January 2022 The Russian domestic market grew due to weakening of the ruble. As export duties decreased, it made it possible f...

Blockchain Food; Geopolitical Damage

Blockchain Food A few years ago, major food system originators and processors began experimenting with blockchain under a system called Food Trust. Now the...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.3475/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.69/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. ...

Whither Thy Beef

China continues to politically bludgeon Australia’s agriculture, the latest involving the suspension of beef imports from several processing plants D...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Afghanistan’s agriculture will benefit from a $65 million donation by the Asian Develop...

Not so Sweet; Not so Green

Not so Sweet The WTO last month sided with Australia, Brazil, and Guatemala that India’s sugar subsidies were distorting and illegal. India has appea...

Drop in Feeder Cattle Supply

USDA released its Cattle Inventory report today. The total inventory of all cattle and calves as of 1 January is 91.1 million head; that compares to 93.8 m...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.26/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.6125/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. ...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s possible invasion of Ukraine remains a huge focus for the markets, though political tensions thawed last week and market...

China's Food Security

Beijing proclaims the goal of food self-sufficiency at a 95-percent level on a grain basis but there is inadequate data upon which to judge this feat. Goro...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Regional News Argentina and the IMF On Friday, the government of Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced an initial agreement regardi...

Cattle Inventory Report Preview

USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle Inventory report on Monday estimating the herd size for all cattle and calves as of 1 January 2022. Pre-report exp...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.36/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8625/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. ...

Food Inflation; Starving Europeans; Reasonable Response

Food Inflation  The Biden Administration has taken issue with the farm-to-retail spread, arguing it is proof that food companies are too concentrated...

Hot Vegetable Oil

The global oilseeds situation remained on track this past week with supplies tight and prices rising. March soybeans likely added over 50 cents this week,...

Market Commentary: Wheat Whiplash; New Soy Highs

Soybeans and soyoil opened in the green and stayed that way all session, setting new contract highs in soyoil and November beans. Corn opened higher but qu...

Dairy Crisis Fix; Steel and Subsidies; Turning Russia

Dairy Crisis Fix The U.S. dairy industry has spent decades myopically focused on extracting high prices for milk out of American consumers. The Federal Mil...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.2525/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.77/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Export Sales

Export Sales for January 14-20, 2022.  Wheat:  Net sales of 676,700 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year high--were up 78 percent fro...

Out COMPETES; Pig News

Out COMPETES The U.S. House released a bill today whose proponents say will enable America to compete with China in science and technology. The biggest com...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.27/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.95/bushel, down $0.23 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Prices Up More than 2 Percent as Holiday Approaches With the lunar holiday around the corner, most slaughterhouses closed this week, whi...

Global Feed Prices Equilibrate

Argentina has moved into the lowest price leader position for corn, but its price has started tracking higher - lest money be left on the table. Romanian a...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 January 2022 The Russian domestic market fluctuated as it grew significantly in the beginning but then decreased. We see a mod...

SCOTUS Takes on WOTUS

One of the biggest issues in agriculture over the past half a dozen years has been the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule – and more generally,...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.2/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.18/bushel, up $0.175 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

Unnecessary Angst

The markets are nervous over potential impacts from geopolitics, especially the potential actions by Russia in Ukraine. The past is not necessarily prologu...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Turkish flour miller Ulusoy Un Sanayi has received $25 million in six year debt facility from...

December Cold Storage Report

December total red meat and poultry stocks were up from November but remained down 11.2 percent from December 2020. Once again, total pork and poultry stoc...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.21/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.005/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...

Problem Off the Farm

COVID revealed the raw underbelly of the U.S. food manufacturing industry. While politicians are blaming consolidation and greed for the disrupted supply c...

Record 2023 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production Forecast

Thinking back a little more than a decade ago, the Obama Administration proposed the “cap and trade” energy policy to develop more alternative...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina Last week’s heatwave in Argentina was as bad with temperatures above 40C (104F) and strong winds in many places. By the week’s e...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Grain markets in Europe and the Black Sea remain dominated by one factor: the looming possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. Dipl...

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent: Cattle on feed for the slaughter in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.0 mill...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

COF: Record December Placements

USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report; it was on the bearish side with record placements for December that were well above pre-report expectation...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

WTF Trade Policy; Transatlanticism

WTF Trade Policy USTR Katherine Tai spoke to other leaders at the World Economic Forum this week and made the following comments: Rather than seeking a re...

Dynamic Oilseed Developments

Export Sales USDA’s Export Sales report released this morning reflected larger export sales across many commodities, including the soy complex. Net s...

Export Sales

Export Sales for Jan 7, 2022 – Jan 13, 2022 Wheat:  Net sales of 380,600metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 44 percent from the previous week...

Market Commentary: Geopolitics Replaces Weather

With little new in the fundamentals to move the market it is instead being pushed by inflation and geopolitics. Funds are buying on both measures going int...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.11/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.9025/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Livestock Round-Up: Cattle on Feed Preview

There is still some slack in the beef processing sector, reportedly related to the Omicron variant and labor availability. Cattle slaughter today was 116,0...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Squeeze of Low Prices and High Feed Costs Plagues Hog Sector The latest data release from China’s Feed Industry Association indicates that...

China Status Quo; Buffaloed on Beef

China Status Quo A piece in Bloomberg makes note that the White House has focused on other issues (voting rights, Build Back Better spending) but has said...

Good But #27

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange announced that the average yield for Argentina’s 2021/22 wheat crop will be 3.44 MT/hectare. That is the highest yiel...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.105/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.965/bushel, up $0.275 from yesterday's close.  M...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 January 2022 The Russian domestic market prices changed insignificantly and mainly in southern regions that are more sensitive...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.995/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.69/bushel, up $0.275 from yesterday's close. ...

Farm Income Getting Squeezed by Input Costs

The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on Thursday to Review the State of the Rural Economy. This is an annual hearing, and the sole witness w...

Subsidizing Poor Governance; GMO Pork; Trees for Grass

Subsidizing Poor Governance Development assistance goes to some very needy nations, but it may also enable corrupt political regimes to persevere when they...

On the Cusp of?

Nothing is more important to commodity markets than the larger economy. First, the U.S. economy was headed toward secular stagnation, then it was worrisome...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to...

Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday

The CBOT/CME markets will be closed Monday, 17 January 2022 in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. WPI’s offices will be closed as well...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9625/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&n...

RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook

Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came...

WFH Productivity; USMCA Rift

WFH Productivity There have been plenty of studies about the impacts on productivity of work from home (WFH) during COVID. They usually show mixed results...

Guessing La Niña

This year’s La Niña event has been categorized as historically a moderate one. The rains coming to parts of South America this weekend attest...

Oilseeds Situation Update

Most of the current changes are on the supply side of the ledger. This week’s USDA WASDE has come and gone but its effects linger. The agency’s...

Market Commentary: Definitively Lower

The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s...

Livestock Round-Up: WASDE Livestock Outlook

Last week we noted the impact of Omicron on slaughter rates; as of today, cattle slaughter is up about 1 percent, hog slaughter is down about 3.5 percent,...

Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup

Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 20...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.875/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.4675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Export Sales

Export Sales for Dec 31, 2021 – Jan 6, 2022. Wheat:  Net sales of 264,400 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous we...

Workers of World United

The analytics company CultureX says that people are more likely to quit their jobs due to a toxic workplace culture than due to their salary. That may be t...

What’s in a Name; Going Industrial; New Analytical Approach

What’s in a Name Proponents of geographic indicators in Europe are upset that DG-Agri may be planning to hand over more regulatory oversight of the G...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.5775/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean meal price is projected at $375 per short ton, up 45 dollars...

WASDE Soybeans

U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 10 million bushels to 350 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $12.6...

WASDE Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 47 million bushels to 1,540 million. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Reverses Course, Falls in December With pork prices continuing to remain well below their averages from a year ago, food cost...

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 628 million.  The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.15...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 January 2022 The first week of January was holiday season, as usual, so it was impossible to register any changes on the Russian...

Fake Pork Trade; Humoring Russia

Fake Pork Trade USTR Katherine Tai announced that bilateral negotiations had resulted in India opening its market to imports of U.S. pork. This past year,...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.01/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7025/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. ...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  MEA region grain importers will face lower Russian export quotas in 2022 – 8 MMT of whe...

Three-Year Rebuild

The price of palm oil has been rising since the start of 2021, reaching a local price roughly double the average of the previous dozen years. Production in...

Beef with Oil; Carbon Trouble

Beef with Oil The Biden Administration dislikes the oil industry as much or more than Big Beef. After stating the goals of ending drilling on public lands,...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.62/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...

Fat Cats

Investors are most interested in maximizing their return on capital. It is notable that across 97 different industries, the agrifood sector is a mixed bag...

EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade

On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulator...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Wheat/Corn Trust The Argentine government is being creative in trying to control inflation rates. They are trying to control local wheat...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s grain exports for MY 2021/22 total 33.5 MMT, up 23 percent from the same period last year. Of that, wheat accounts for...

A Different Kind of Inflation in 2021

The U.S. has not used the gold standard since 1933, when the Emergency Banking Act forced Americans to give up gold and convert their holdings to dollars...

Real Food Sovereignty; Obesity Solutions

Real Food Sovereignty Activists and their populist politicians in rich, developed countries have an answer for reforming agriculture – small farms us...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Oilseed Situation Update

As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. Th...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0675/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.585/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Topsy Turvey

Corn and cattle opened down but settled up; soyoil opened up but closed down with the rest of the complex; and wheat never saw the light of day. The ration...

Mistakes on All Sides

Russian President Vladimir Putin complains that NATO is a threat to Russia and seeks a buffer to establish states but the nations he wants to isolate from...

Livestock Round-Up: Dealing with the Omicron Effect

The increased number of cases of the Omicron variant of COVID has been weighing somewhat on the cattle markets this past week. There is general chatter abo...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.46/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Major Live Hog Companies Target Increased Capacity in 2022 Even with live hog prices down year-on-year by 54.8 percent and the corn-hog ratio in...

Export Sales

Export Sales for December 24-30, 2021 Wheat:  Net sales of 48,600 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low—were down 76 percent from...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0225/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close...

Dissecting Beef

The Biden Administration is charging the meat packing industry with exploitation for elevated beef prices. Beef is certainly not the only industry with ris...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 December 2021 The last week of December on the Russian grain market was very calm. General trends were downward. Market player...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.095/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

Market Commentary: Boisterous Day

The second trading day of the new year started modestly enough. Corn and soybeans were up a nickel, soymeal was in the hole. Then with a burst of volume co...

Eye on Weather for 2022 Considering Fertilizer Prices

There has been much discussion and focus on the weather conditions in South America, and Brazil in particular where it has been dry across the central and...

Biden’s Beef to Nowhere; Irrepressible COOL

Biden’s Beef to Nowhere In 2005, members of the Alaska Congressional delegation tried to add funding equivalent in today’s inflation-adjusted d...

Market Swing Leans Bullish

Berry Marttin at Rabobank notes that agricultural commodity prices have risen 28 percent over the past year and are 40 percent above pre-pandemic levels. L...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Syria is facing a water crisis in the northeast that it blames on Turkey. Dams on the Euphrat...

Biden Plan to Downsize “Big Meat”

The Biden Administration today held a roundtable to discuss the details of its Action Plan for a Fairer, More Competitive, and More Resilient Meat and Poul...

WASDE Adjustments to South America

La Niña events are not infrequent and should provide some level of predictability. However, there is wide variability in each event, seed genetics c...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.8925/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.58/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...

The State and Monopolies

The Biden Administration announced a $1 billion program to incentivize “independent processing capacity” in the meat industry. Noting the irony...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat In the last two weeks, amid drought and sunny, warm weather, Argentina’s wheat harvest moved fast and reached almost 90 percent of the planted...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9325/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7075/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.&...

Low Volume, High Interest

Today’s trading went as expected with a low volume of business but that does not obviate the high interest in agricultural commodities as we move int...

GE Labeling; Skewed Meat View; Accurate Milk View

GE Labeling  Starting in 2022, the U.S. will have mandatory labeling of foods with detectable amounts of genetically modified content. WPI emphasizes...

Market Commentary: Profit Taking, Brazil Rains Weigh on CBOT

The CBOT came under pressure Thursday from a combination of end-of-year profit taking and rains that are pushing into southern Brazil. Traders were eager t...

An Early Look at Red Meat’s Future

At the end of the year, thoughts are turning to the future – not just 2022, but the longer term as well. USDA released its preliminary long-term outl...

Export Sales

Export Sales for December 17-23, 2021. Wheat:  Net sales of 199,500 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 53 percent from the previous week and 43...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Russian Roulette

Market volatility has risen with Covid and its latest iteration Omicron but has thus far underplayed the current security risks playing out in Eastern Euro...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0475/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.835/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: Small Comeback

Today’s trading opened like a continuation of the day before. Wheat corn and soy all opened lower with just the livestock complex in a more bullish m...

Farm Bill Negotiations to Start Soon

House Agriculture Committee Chairman David Scott (D-Georgia) has indicated that negotiations for the farm bill will start in the very early weeks of 2022...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0475/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.835/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: Corrective Doldrum

It now looks like Omicron is manageable, which supports macros and ethanol but otherwise there are few new commodity market inputs. That led to an opportun...

Soft Opening

Welcome back from the holiday. The latest weather reports have not brightened prospects for crops in Argentina and southern Brazil and weather premium was...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.1475/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.04/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...

Holiday Schedule

Financial markets will be closed tomorrow, December 24, for Christmas Eve. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report tomorrow. WPI wishes everyo...

Livestock Round Up: Bullish Report on Hogs, Neutral on Cattle

USDA released a trifecta of livestock reports today. First, the much-awaited quarterly hogs and pigs report. Pre-report expectations were for a bullish rep...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0575/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.1475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Greed versus Apathy

President Biden and his economic team attacked the U.S. meat industry this year for being greedy. Meanwhile, he has politely asked the oil industry to plea...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Tariff on Imported Pork Set to Rise to Help Domestic Industry Even with China’s national reproductive sow inventory falling to 43 million h...

Export Sales

Export Sales for December 10-16, 2021. Wheat:  Net sales of 425,400 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 35 percent from the previous week, but up...

December Cold Storage Report

November total red meat and poultry stocks were down from October and fell 11.3 percent from November 2020. Once again, pork and chicken stocks posted five...

Africa Already Green

When the EU and the African Union meet in February, Brussels will reportedly encourage the AU to adopt Europe’s Green Deal/Farm to Fork strategy in a...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.025/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.14/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close.  J...

Diabolical Plan; Trade in Cancer; Energy Reality

Diabolical Plan USTR issued a blistering report regarding Russia’s increasingly protectionist trade policy. It accused Moscow of employing localizati...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased at higher rates than during the previous week due to growing grain e...

Which Way Chile; Green Excuse

Which Way Chile Analysts are pondering the future of Chile now that it has elected socialist Gabriel Boric as its next president. Boric campaigned to end n...

Rarely Due to War

Syria’s wheat production collapsed this year, but it was not due to the nearly decade-long civil war. The FAO cites three causes: 1) drought; 2) high...

Cattle on Feed and Hogs and Pigs Preview

It’s a holiday shortened week, but a big week for livestock reports from USDA. On Thursday, the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report comes out. (We’v...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Egypt’s Agricultural Bank is putting up EGP 4 billion (about U.S. $254 million) “...

Perk up Attention

Exports point to climate change as the cause of the plateauing in global crop production but no where is it more apparent than in coffee production. Brazil...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7775/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nb...

BBB Blowback; Shoot the Messenger; Silver Lining

BBB Blowback Although word yesterday that U.S. Senator Joe Manchin’s rejection of President Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) Act appears to be l...

Meat Inflation: Income Elasticity Worked as Expected in 2021

Inflation is a hot topic lately; it is the reason why the Fed has signaled it will raise interest rates three times next year. Moreover, it is why Senator...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Concerns about the frost-tolerance of the Black Sea wheat crop are growing after the EU Commission confirmed last week that a late star...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Export Quota Update Finally, the Argentine government implemented a so-called “new” system to control wheat and corn exports. The “new&rd...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Russian Ultimatum; Cynical Tax Break

Russian Ultimatum Russian President Vladmimir Putin just provoked the transatlantic strategy on managing his country’s possible aggression in Eastern...

Fertilizer Worries and Natural Gas News

The November edition of the Purdue University/CME Ag Economy Barometer shows that November was the lowest index of the year to date at 116 – down 51...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9325/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.75/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  J...

Oilseeds Situation – Mixed Outlook

Supply While the global supply of oilseeds and products is tight, it could get tighter or looser. The least likely factor to reduce demand and thus loosen...

Market Commentary: Confidence in the Pits

The market appeared to be half asleep at the start of today’s session. Corn and wheat were up relatively modestly for a while until wheat shot up to...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9125/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.705/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. ...

Tripping Up Shipping; Minimal? 2022 Drivers

Tripping Up Shipping The shelves are not bare before Christmas, but somethings remain in short supply. Political success means saving the day and some drea...

Export Sales

Export Sales for Dec 3-9, 2021. Wheat:  Net sales of 650,600 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the previo...

Summary of Futures

March 22 Corn ($/bu) $5.8575 March 22 Wheat ($/bu) $7.5600 March 22 Hard Red Winter ($/bu)     $7.8550 March Hard Red Spring ($/bu) $10.0925...

Inflation Truth; Excess Demand; Source of News

Inflation Truth The U.S. Federal Reserve sent a strong signal today that inflation is endemic in the economy and that strong action is needed to bring it u...

How Sweet it Isn’t

In the past three years, India has switched from being the number four exporter of sugar in the world to number two. Over the past dozen years, its domesti...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Sees First Uptick Since May After five consecutive months of declines, food prices in the aggregate rose by 1.6 percent on an...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices continue to decrease. Export milling wheat average offer price decreased to $33...

Food Better Than Healthcare; Big Ag is Safe; Siloed Big Tech

Food Better Than Healthcare While the healthcare sector has been called a miracle for the way it has handled the pandemic, the food industry has been criti...

Producer Prices Hit Record High as Fed Begins December Meeting

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Index (PPI) today, the primary measure of inflation for manufacturers and producers. The P...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9025/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.87/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Ukrainian Opportunity

Ukraine has become an important supplier of corn over the past decade, increasing its exports by 155 percent. However, its share of the global market has o...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Egypt reports that current wheat reserves will cover consumption for 5.3 months. Egypt’...

Next Trade War; Blaming Meat Industry; Taiwan Trouble

Next Trade War The EU Commission is moving forward on its goal of ensuring that constraints imposed on European producers will also be applied to imports...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.85/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8875/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...

Potato Trade Grows

Potatoes have taken a dietary beating for being a basic starch that raises blood sugar as fast as pure glucose. By contrast, whole wheat contains complex s...

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  World wheat markets are under pressure from USDA’s December WASDE, which increased global 2021/22 ending stocks due to larger pro...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentina  Argentina’s wheat harvest is 54 percent complete after advancing 8.5 percent last week. Yields in the center and south of the a...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

GMO Debate Over; More China Calculations

GMO Debate Over Mark Twain may have said that a lie travels around the globe while the truth is putting on its shoes and the adage is truer today than ever...

Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs

There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues.  SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8525/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilseeds Situation Update

A summary of the bullish and bearish supply, demand and policy machinations affecting the global oilseeds sector. Supply Bullish Argentina: Soybean planted...

Export Sales

Export Sales for Nov 26 to Dec 2,2021.  Wheat:  Net sales of 239,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week, bu...

WASDE Soyoil

Soyoil: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for soyoil to average 65 cents per pound in the 2021/22 season. ...

WASDE Soymeal

Soymeal: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for meal price to increased $5.00 to $330.00 per short ton...

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. Soybean crush is unchanged but soybean oil production is raised on a higher ext...

WASDE Corn

Corn: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.45 per bushel. Global coarse...

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for a small increase in U.S. ending stock because exports are lowered 20 million bushels. U.S. export prices...

Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE

USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” ch...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7675/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&n...

Congressional Reform; Inflation Rate

Congressional Reform The U.S. Congress is held in general low regard by the American public. Seen as petty, partisan and dysfunctional, the institution doe...

WASDE, 2022 Cattle Prices and 2021 Pork Imports

Today’s WASDE shows total red meat and poultry production finishing the year slightly below last month’s forecasts, though up 0.3 percent from...

Changes in Chemical Usage

The U.S./Canada and Europe have increased pesticide usage only slightly over the past two decades whereas South America’s usage has grown by almost 1...

Wishful Thinking; Better Buyers than Sellers; Siloed Market

Wishful Thinking The EU is developing a new trade policy intended to rapidly respond to “coercive measures” by third countries, such as Donald...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.8725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.945/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Muyuan’s Credit Default Sends Shockwave Through Industry Based on recent reports from the Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange (SHCPE), more...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 November-3 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased mainly due to downward trends on international wheat markets...

Corruption Focus; Next Transportation Fuel

Corruption Focus The Biden Administration will emphasize its Strategy on Countering Corruption at this week’s Summit for Democracy. Shell companies w...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.86/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.085/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...

Government Led Nutrition

Everyone knows China loves pork, but its new affinity is dairy. Throughout Chinese history, dairy was mostly associated with nomadic tribes, like the dread...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Pakistan has agreed that the transportation of 50,000 MT wheat from India to Afghanistan, via...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.835/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.0625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

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