The CBOT was mixed with continued weakness in the soy complex as soybeans and soymeal broke technical support levels. Soyoil traded a volatile day and ende...
Articles
Anomalous China Trade Year
The Biden Administration announced that it will ensure enforcement of the Phase One trade deal with China but that will not be much of a challenge when it...
Could Lack of Compliance with the Federal Employee COVID Vaccine Mandate Impact USDA Services?
As we reported last Thursday, the Senate passed a continuing resolution – i.e., a temporary funding bill to keep the government from shutting down at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.565/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Same Old with China; Mexico Plunges; Carbon Support
Same Old with China U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai detailed today how the Biden Administration would largely continue the status quo approach to C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest has started in the northern tip of the country, which was most affected by this year’s drought. Recently, hot t...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat World wheat prices continue to rally after USDA surprised the market with smaller-than-expected U.S. 2020/21 ending stocks last week. A...
PM Post - Good Inspections
THE OPEN November beans: 7 lower December meal: 1.40 lower December soyoil: 15 higher December corn: 3/4 lower December wheat: 6 hi...
AM Outlook - Grains Over Beans
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the PM session lower with corn prices slowly recovering led by wheat. Harvest proceeds forward as trading volumes...
Technical Views - Mostly Sideways
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.22c/bu while oilshare trades at 47.24%. Dec/March corn trades 8 1/4c to 8 1/2c, Dec 21/22 inverse trades down to...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rally and Soy Selloff Continue; Hogs Rest After $8 Weekly Gain
The CBOT largely followed the trends set yesterday by the Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports. Wheat rallied sharply and posted near-30-cent gain...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Lump of Coal; Outcomes Not Means
Lump of Coal About 17 countries plus the EU presently have national carbon pricing. Some countries are threatening border taxes to prevent so-called carbon...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.5525/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Disappearing Fertilizer Supply
On 26 July, WPI wrote about the Department of Commerce decision to consider countervailing duties (CVD) and anti-dumping duties (AD) on imports of urea amm...
Energy and GDP
Rising energy prices should have an impact on global GDP growth in 2021, though the ratio has been declining. Over the past 20 years, expenditures on energ...
PM Post - Buy Grains/Sell Soy
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: 1.60 higher December soyoil: 12 lower December corn: 6 higher December wheat: 12 higher T...
AM Outlook - Two Potential Plays
GOOD MORNING, Prices for the soy complex are mixed, with beans lower, products trading both sides. Oilshare is seeing some profit-taking on the...
Technical Views - Post-Report Adjustments
SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 1.11c/bu, which will incentivize crushers to do all they can. Oilshare trades higher to 47.0%. Dec/March cor...
Market Commentary: Overplayed Then Corrected
The NASS stocks report initially felt like a bomb had dropped but after the trade assessed the situation with a clearer head, markets came back off their l...
Livestock Round Up: Pressure Release from Government Shutdown, Drought, ASF Threat, and Maybe Cattle Prices
The Senate passed, by a vote of 65-35, a temporary funding bill to keep the government from shutting down at midnight tonight, the last day of the fiscal y...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.255/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&n...
Practical Politics
Whether Buenos Aires or Washington, politicians are finding a practical middle to prevent all out failure. In Argentina, after a devastating blow ear...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Soybean Stocks; Palm Oil Price; ND Soy Crush Plant
U.S. Soy Export Sales and Exports Update Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters had a positive week selling U.S. soybeans for expor...
PM Post - Post-Report Adjustments
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 higher Dec meal: 1.60 lower Dec soyoil: 90 higher Dec corn: 4 higher Dec wheat: 9 higher The markets opened a...
Export Sales
USDA Reports for Sept 17-23, 2021: Wheat: Net sales of 290,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 30 perc...
Technical Views - Mostly Firm
SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades firmer as well to 46.20%. Dec/March corn trades from 7 3/4c carry to 8c. Dec...
AM Outlook - Bears are Watching
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to put on good rallies. Features overnight include higher oilshare and soyoil strength, (on the back of strong pal...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms in Pre-Grain Stocks Report Positioning
The CBOT ended higher on Wednesday after a mixed overnight session gave way to day-session gains. Outside markets recovered some of yesterday’s losse...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Pragmatism versus Philosophy; Big Pig
Pragmatism versus Philosophy Farmers are generally conservative when it comes to government, except when it involves benefits for themselves. This is playi...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Chinese Live Hog Market Facing More Challenges Despite recent market optimism that improved genetics and a better stream of ne...
Inflation Implications
Concerns about inflation exceeding transitory terms have increased in recent days but it was reported yesterday that inventories of consumer goods have sta...
Ag Review - September 2021
For 23 years, WPI’s monthly AgReview publication has provided in-depth analysis of markets and policy. Responding to changes in both business economi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 September 2021 Prices for grain crops (except for corn) in the domestic Russian market increased but at a more moderate rate t...
PM Post - Up Leveling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: .20 higher Dec soyoil: 32 higher Dec corn: 3 higher Dec wheat: 7 higher The mark...
AM Outlook - "V" is for Volatility
GOOD MORNING, Prices were mixed overnight but gradually turned higher led by wheat, as traders seem more pre-occupied by what is going on in outside...
Technical Views - Leveling Up
SPREADS Dec crush trades 1.03c/bu while oilshare is steady at 45.78%. Dec/March corn trades out to 8 1/4c from 7 3/4c while the Dec 21/22 inverse fal...
Market Commentary: CBOT Succumbs to Macro Risk-Off Day; Cattle Pause Amid Hog Rally
The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with the U.S. Congressional battle over the debt ceiling, spending packages, and anything else the two parties can argue a...
Barley Market Tightens
The global barley market is only about one-eighth the size of the corn market but to major exporters (France, Russia, Australia, Canada) and to major impor...
Senator Grassley on RVOs: “Worst Week in Washington for Ethanol Ever”
There are more rumors circulating about potential cuts in the require volume obligations (RVOs) for biofuels. Those stories have certainly gained the atten...
U.S. – EU Agreement; Macro Bearishness
U.S. – EU Agreement Although France was balking at agreeing to the 17-page transatlantic agreement, tomorrow’s meeting of the U.S. – EU T...
PM Post - Macros Prompt Fund Selling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 3/4 lower Dec meal: 1.40 lower Dec soyoil: 15 lower Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1 higher The markets opene...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan sees a wheat cargo of 59,700 MT arrive with another 58,000 MT to arrive this week. T...
Technical Views - Weight of the Soy Complex
SPREADS Dec crush trades up to 1.00c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.98%. Spreads trade from 7 1/2c to 7 3/4c for Dec/March, while Dec 21/22 inverse t...
AM Outlook - Oil is the Big Kahuna
GOOD MORNING, The markets have put in a good rally as we head into the Sep. 1 Quarterly Stocks report. Corn rallied on any number of items, inc...
Market Commentary: Corn, Crude Oil Rally; Lean Hogs Hit Limit-Gains
Confirmation of a 300,000+ MT sale of soybeans to China, plus rumors of continued interest from Chinese buyers, put a bid under the CBOT on Monday. Corn fu...
Meat Maneuvers; German Maneuvers; Weighing Biden/Global Coverage
Meat Maneuvers The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association asked USDA to opine on whether alternative proteins such as cell-cultured products could be labeled a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Corn Crude Comparison
The December corn contract rose 2.4 percent today and WTI Crude was up 1.7 percent. The corn price is rising in the middle of otherwise bearish indicators...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Despite stable FAS prices near $200-205/MT, Argentina’s market saw traded volume decrease. Even so, October is almost here, and farmers have sol...
Big Week for Biden Agenda and Fiscal Policy on Capitol Hill
This week will be pivotal on Capitol Hill. Much of President Biden’s agenda – the American Families Plan (43.5 trillion budget reconciliation b...
PM Post - Outside Money Boost
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 2.00 higher Dec soyoil: 50 lower Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1 lower The markets op...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The United Nations is tendering for 200,000 MT of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government with a submission deadline of 8 O...
Technical Views - Sideways Range-bound
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 93.70c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.51%. Spreads are firmer with Dec/March corn trading from 7 1/2c to 7 3/4c, while De...
AM Outlook - Bearish Tone
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened on a mixed note overnight, higher beans and wheat, lower corn. Weather is wide open for harvest. Soyoil futures ope...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle on feed totaled 11.2 million head on September 1, 2021. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2020. This is the second highest September 1...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed; Soy Crushing Stops in China; Cattle and Hog Reports Bullish 2022 Futures
The CBOT was mixed in low-volume trade to end the week. Chicago wheat was the upside leader, though few contracts followed that market’s lead. Corn a...
USDA Inventory Reports: Hogs Bullish, Cattle More Bearish
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today with most all categories coming in below pre-report expectations. Total inventory was 75.4 million h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Wine over Beer; Bad Timing; PR Approach; Korean Hope
Wine over Beer Policymakers hoping to compel the citizenry into drastic actions to cut carbon emissions have poured cold water on their messaging with the...
Minor Misnomer
In agriculture, there are major and minor crops. This seemingly disparaging characterization relates solely to the amount of acreage utilized. Minor crops...
PM Post - Risk-off, Profit-taking, Position-leveling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 lower Dec meal: .20 lower Dec soyoil: 5 lower Dec corn: 1 lower Dec wheat: 1/2 lower The markets opened lower on a cautio...
Am Outlook - Notable Stories
GOOD MORNING, Prices were mixed in the evening, higher for beans and soyoil with corn struggling and all turning in the red by the AM hour. Soyoil pr...
Technical Views - Round We Go
SPREADS Dec crush trades up to 91.20c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 45.55%. Dec/March trades from 7 1/2c to 8c, while Dec 21/22 trades fro...
Market Commentary: Off the Bottom
The market opened soft with wheat and soyoil as leaders and the rest in the hole, but a route was found out of the hole by everything but soymeal and feede...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed and Hogs and Pigs Preview
Tomorrow, USDA will release two important reports: the monthly Cattle on Feed Report and the quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory. Analysts’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2925/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1775/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
Killing CBAM; Nation Killing; Markets versus Regulation
Killing CBAM European Commission Executive Vice President Frans Timmerman says that the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism would not apply to Japan due to...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Soy Stocks; Argentina Soy Crush; India Soymeal
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 16 September indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans and soyme...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Chinese Live Hog Price Decline Accelerates After Holiday The fall optimism that emerged mid-summer with respect to the return...
PM Post - As Called
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 1.10 lower Dec soyoil: 40 higher Dec corn: 2 lower Dec wheat: 4 higher The markets opened as...
Export Sales
For the period September 10-16, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 355,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 42 percent from the previous week, but up...
Technical Views - Corn/Soymeal Lower
SPREADS Dec oilshare trades to 45.20% while crush trades up to 89.85c. Dec/March corn narrows into 7 1/4c from 7 1/2c. Dec 21/22 trades from 24...
AM Outlooked - Mixed Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with wheat and soyoil leading the way in strength. The PM session featured more congestion trade as harvest rolls on a...
Market Commentary: Real Reaction to Fake RVOs; Oats, Wheat Rally
The CBOT finished higher on Wednesday with corn and soyoil trading a volatile day with rumors and reports of new EPA biofuel requirements and suspicions of...
Wheat Status Quo
Bulgaria is headed toward record crops this year with wheat output more than doubling since joining the EU. However, the overall record for countries joini...
September Cold Storage Report
August total red meat and poultry stocks were steady compared to July but down 14.3 percent from August 2020. Once again, beef, pork, chicken, and turkey s...
China In-Country Analysis
Today's China analysis is delayed due to the country's Harvest Moon Festival which delayed delivery of current data. ...
Blinding Reality; Differential Distortions; Subs are Good
Blinding Reality UN’s Food Systems Summit opens tomorrow and like much else about the institution, it proves to be a bust. It started with the usual...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.255/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0575/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Healthy Rally
THE OPEN Nov beans: 9 higher Dec meal: .20 lower Dec soyoil: 120 pts higher Dec corn: 4 higher Dec wheat: 10 higher Prices op...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 September 2021 Prices for grain crops in the domestic Russian market mainly increased. In the Ural region and in some areas in...
AM Outlook - Mixed
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the evening on a tentative note, but beans, wheat, and soyoil prices rallied into the morning hours taking corn along with it...
Technical Views - Upside Follow-through
SPREADS Dec crush is 88.65% with oilshare at 44.83%. Spreads are wider with Dec/March corn trading from 7 /34c to 8 1/2c carry, while Dec 21/Dec 22 t...
Market Commentary: Macro Markets Stabilize, Soy Rallies on China Buying; Wheat Weaker on Planting
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with soybeans grinding lower and breaking support early in the day before rumors of Chinese purchases pushed the market to a...
China: Will It, or Won’t It, Meet Phase One in Year Two?
As the two-year China-U.S. Phase One trade agreement nears its final months, and seasonal exports trend up, what China does for the rest of the year has be...
Double Exposure; New Old Era
Double Exposure In a concept paper yesterday at the WTO, the U.S. outlined its lessons from the pandemic in terms of a more resilient planet. Notably missi...
PM Post - Loss of Upside Steam
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 higher Dec meal: 1.30 higher Dec soyoil: 15 higher Dec corn: 1 lower Dec wheat: 4 lower Pri...
Missing Energy Diversity
The theme of the pandemic has been the need for reshoring and diversification of supply chains to strengthen future resilience from such black swan events...
AM Outlook - Still Awaiting Upside Reversal
GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight continue to trend lower for grains, while attempting to put in some stabilization trade for soyoil and beans. Ou...
Technical Views - Soy to Lead
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 89c while oilshare trades to 44.76%. Dec/March corn carry trades from 8c to 8 1/4c, while Dec 21/22 trades from 20c inver...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Morocco is forecast by USDA-FAS to be importing about 4.5 MMT of wheat in 2021/22 – dow...
Market Commentary: Macro Risk-Off Trade Pressures CBOT
The CBOT was lower to start the week with widespread “risk off” trade taking place in light of weaker macro markets. U.S. and world stocks were...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0075/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&n...
Reap What You Sow; Energy Poverty; Deadly Food
Reap What you Sow French President Emmanuel Macron withdrew his ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over the shift of a submarine purchase from his count...
Methane and Climate Policies Ag Focus before U.N. Climate Meeting
There was a lot of activity last week in preparation for the upcoming United Nations climate meeting to be held in Glasgow, including a new U.S.-EU methane...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat World wheat markets are steady/higher this week after futures markets rallied despite the September WASDE’s addition of 4 MMT to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It’s been an interesting week for the corn market with significant volumes traded. Almost every exporter has been pushing for grain, paying up f...
Meathead Packing Policy
Last week, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack charged the U.S. meat industry with unethically profiting off of Americans during the pandemic. A charge totally refu...
PM Post - Beans Beaten Worst
THE OPEN Nov beans: 17 lower Dec meal: 2.80 lower Dec soyoil: 108 pts lower Dec corn: 11 lower Dec wheat: 10 lower The market...
AM Outlook - Exiting Some Longs
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board on more fund selling as weather moving forward continues to favor a good pace of harvest. Outside mar...
Technical Views - Retrace Lower
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare trades at 45.0%. Dec/March corn trades out to 8c from 7c, while Dec 21/22 trades from 23 1/2c carry...
Market Commentary: Macro Risk Off
Don’t take it personally that markets across the board showed weakness today. Exceptions being the dollar and lean hogs. The problem is dropping cons...
Will Biofuels Go Sky High in Taking to the Air?
The Biden Administration last week announced an effort to lower carbon emissions in aviation, targeting a 20 percent drop in aviation emissions by 2030 and...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0875/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close...
Biden Buckles; Future-casting Politics
Biden Buckles Much the way Donald Trump’s threat to end NAFTA united Congressional Republicans and Democrats in support of the USMCA, China has manag...
PM Post - Macro Sell-off
THE OPEN Nov beans: 10 lower Dec meal; 2.30 lower Dec soyoil: 52 lower Dec corn: 2 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 3 3/4 lower The marke...
AM Outlook - Moving Lower
GOOD MORNING, The markets were lower overnight as we cap off a week that contained a rally, and will end with good harvest weather across the heart of the...
Technical Views - Lower Range Profit-tacking
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 86c/bu while oilshare trades at 45.44%. Dec/March corn trades from 7 1/2c to 7 3/4c, while Dec 21/Dec 22 trades fro...
Market Commentary: Tenuous Nudges
Without a lot driving the direction of the market, today was like a bickering old couple where bulls and bears disagreed over nothing important. Trades cou...
Livestock Round Up: Back to School Outlook for Dairy
After on-line, remote learning, and shortened and staggered weeks at schools, this fall semester offers some hope to return to a more normal year for dairy...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.295/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.13/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. ...
Subs and Trade; International Tyranny; ESG Green Washing
Subs and Trade China has applied for membership to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a move that should re...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 617,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year high—were up 59 percent from the previous week and up noticeably f...
PM Post - Choppy but Constructive
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 higher Dec meal; 2.70 higher Dec soyoil: 34 lower Dec corn: 1 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 3 1/2 lower The markets opened as exp...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentina Election Impact; Brazil Soy; WASDE Changes; Canada Canola
Electoral Defeats May Cause Argentine Peronists to Revisit Export Restrictions Midterm congressional primary elections were held on Sunday in Argentina. Th...
Technical Views - Ownership
SPREADS Crush trades down to 91c/bu with oilshare at 45.89%. Spreads were firmer with Dec/March corn narrowing into 7c from 7 1/2c. Dec 21/Dec...
AM Outlook - More Upside Follow-through
GOOD MORNING, The surprising strength of the rallies this week caught bears off guard, creating a short-covering rally which found little selling pressure...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rally; Corn Yields Concerning; Crude Oil Offers Support
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday, led by rallies in corn and wheat that broke their Friday (post-WASDE) highs. Milling wheat stocks are tightening a...
Individual Action; AMR for Everyone
Individual Action An anti-animal agriculture group falsely calling itself Americans For Family Farmers is promoting legislation entitled Exposing Agricultu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1225/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...
Food to Follow Fossil Fuels
The strategy in Europe and now developing in the U.S. is to replace fossil fuels with new green energy. Europe also wants to replace food produced using ch...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Producers Cut Output as Prices Plummet With China’s leading hog producers reporting their monthly sales for August, the country&rs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 September 2021 Prices for grain crops in the domestic Russian market mainly increased. In the Ural region and in some areas in...
PM Post - Weakness Gets Purchased
THE OPEN Nov beans: 6 higher Dec meal: .10 lower Dec soyoil: 50 higher Dec corn: 6 higher Dec wheat: 3 higher Prices opened as called but...
AM Outlook - Momentum Lower is Stalled
GOOD MORNING, Prices begin the PM session mixed, led higher by corn with wheat lower, but most are higher heading into the close. The soy complex is...
Technical Views - Upside Follow-through
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.72%. Corn spreads are firmer across the board. Dec/March corn trades into...
Market Commentary: Day Shift Follow-Through
After higher closes overnight (except soymeal), markets showed follow-through and opened higher this morning (except soymeal). While corn, wheat, and soyoi...
Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad
Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2025/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0075/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. ...
Proposed Taxes to Pay for the Reconciliation Bill
As we wrote yesterday, while the House Agriculture Committee finished its version of the reconciliation bill, the House Ways and Means Committee is working...
China Boosts USA Sorghum
Unlike corn, China does not impose a tariff rate quota on sorghum imports and now the Middle Kingdom is hoovering up all the sorghum that American farmers...
PM Post - Upside Follow-through
THE OPEN Nov beans: 9 higher Dec meal: 1.00 higher Dec soyoil: 70 higher Dec corn: 3 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 10 hig...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkey has stopped the import tax on wheat (45 percent), barley (35 percent), and corn (25 pe...
AM Outlook - Waiting on Exports
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher on the early night session as charts build on gains and on chatter that China has been actively purchasing US beans. ...
Technical Views - Trading in Ranges
SPREADS December crush pops up to 91c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.10%. Spreads firm with Dec/March corn narrowing into 8 1/2c from 9c carry. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Steady While Livestock Markets Collapse; 1970’s Fashion and the Fed
The CBOT was mostly steady on Monday following Friday’s volatile reaction to the September WASDE. Corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat were all lower but tr...
Policymakers Back to Work with 17 Days Until End of Fiscal Year
Fiscal year 2021 ends 30 September. There is much work still to be done including funding the government past 1 October, extending key authorizations that...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains After a long period of below-normal rains, September started with meaningful precipitation for a large portion of Argentina’s agricultural are...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1325/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $6.87/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&n...
PM Post - Continued Weakness
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 lower Dec meal: 2.00 lower Dec soyoil: 3 higher Dec corn: 8 lower Dec wheat: 5 1/2 lower The mark...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Morocco is rumored to be suspending its import duty on soft wheat starting 1 November to ensure sufficient domestic supply and maintain...
Breaking: Fire at JBS Beef Plant
A fire broke out at JBS’ beef packing plant in Grand Island, Nebraska late Sunday night. The fire was reportedly caused by a boiler exploding i...
Sino-American Similarities; Business Flips; Cost of Dependency
Sino-American Similarities While China and the U.S. are in a competitive battle both strategically and economically, there are many similarities between th...
AM Outlook - Seesaw Continues
GOOD MORNING, The markets opened on a steady note, but the weight of harvest upon the markets sent prices into the red even though they remain off their Fr...
Technical Views - Spreads and Oilshare
SPREADS Dec crush trades down to new lows at 84.14c/bu, while oilshare trades to 45.10%. Dec/March corn trades into 8 3/4c from 9 1/4c. DecMarc...
Pandemic "Food Crisis"
Politico interviewed 11 leaders in U.S. agriculture and determined that based on the pandemic, the food system is not ready for prime time. The thrust of t...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
The soybean meal price is forecast at $360 per short ton, down 25 dollars...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, ending stocks, and lower cru...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. corn is for larger supplies, increased feed and residual use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks. Projec...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stock...
Export Sales
This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period August27-September 2, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 388,400 metric tons (MT) for2021/2022...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.175/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $6.885/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary - WASDE Boosts US Production, Stocks, CBOT Rallies Anyway
Today was all about the WASDE and the lack of an anticipated bearish surprise from USDA sent the CBOT higher by the close. Near-term, it is likely th...
A Closer Look at the WASDE and Inflation for Livestock
Today’s WASDE reduced the outlook for red meat and poultry production by 0.2 percent from August based on a lower outlook for red meat and a forecast...
Making Big Better; Papering Over/Jawboning; Policy; Powerfully Wrong
Making Big Better The Biden Administration claims that big is bad and that it wants to elevate competition, including by funneling cash to small meat proce...
PM Post - Split Decision
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 higher Dec meal: 2.40 higher Dec soyoil: 24 lower Dec corn: 1 higher Dec wheat: 5 lower The markets ope...
Oilseed Bonanza
Rabobank reports that over $2 billion is being invested to expand North American oilseed crush capacity. Part will be to support the expansion in biodiesel...
AM Outlook - Soft Ahead of Report
GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight generally were steady after a week of pressure. It is report day and the market has priced in a lot of bearish news, p...
Technical Views - Holding Pattern
SPREADS Dec. crush trades down to 90c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.43%. Dec/March corn spread narrows into 8c from 9 1/4c. Dec/March wh...
Market Commentary: Liquidating into the Report
A down day was in the forecast and down it was. December corn staged a minor comeback mid-session but could not hold and ended on a fractional loss. Decemb...
Knuckleheads; Non-Chemical Substitutes; Profound Revolution
Knuckleheads Aides to President Joe Biden charged U.S. meat packers with profiting off the pandemic and said they are going to “crack down on illegal...
Livestock Round Up: Blogs and FAQs Driving Policy Making
Yesterday, the White House posted a blog entitled “Addressing Concentration in the Meat-Processing Industry to Lower Food Prices for American Familie...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights: New Soy Crush Plants; AGP Export Facility Damaged
Booming Soybean Crush Sector, Soymeal Exports to Increase Last week was a very eventful one for the U.S. soybean crushing industry. On Monday another soybe...
PM Post - Low on Gusto
THE OPEN Nov beans: 8 lower Dec meal: 1.00 lower Dec soyoil: 50 lower Dec corn: 3 lower Dec wheat: 12 lower The market opened weake...
Technical Views - Deeper Dive
SPREADS Dec. crush falls to 97c/bu while oilshare sits at a steady 45.84%. Dec/March corn trades from 9 1/2c to 9 3/4c carry. Dec/...
AM Outlook - Soft Bottom
GOOD MORNING, Soft markets were seen overnight as harvest looms large with clear weather over the next 10 days. The market continues to monitor progr...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals Pressure Wheat; Corn Soybeans Choppy Before WASDE
CBOT futures were muted as traders are largely positioning for the September WASDE report on Friday. Corn showed perhaps the greatest weakness, pushing to...
Change in Surplus Stocks
Weather reduced production coupled with increased demand have whittled down global surplus grain stocks, but the changes have not been uniform. China is th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.095/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...
Disagreeing to Talk; Day of Reckoning
Disagreeing to Talk Developing countries oppose using a draft WTO text on agriculture as a basis for further negotiation, despite the fact it is merely a d...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomic Food Prices in July See Biggest Drop Since April 2017 With live hog and pork prices falling to breakeven levels, the overall food inflation r...
PM Post - Liquidation then Consolidation
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: .90 lower Dec soyoil: 50 higher Dec corn: 1 higher Dec wheat: 2 lower The market...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 August-3 September Prices for grain crops in the Russian domestic market mainly increased. Export prices increased but so did the...
Technical Views - Balanced Approach
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.00c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.42%. Dec/March corn trades from 9 1/2c to 9 3/4c, while Sep/Dec recovers from a tra...
AM Outlook - Harvest Pressure versus WASDE Caution
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to find pressure as harvest looms but considering there is an impending September WASDE, there is also some pricing and short...
Corn Targets July Low; Australia’s Crop Size Revised Higher; Cattle Selloff Accelerates
The CBOT and CME markets were sharply lower to start post-Labor Day trading with the ongoing export closure at the U.S. Gulf weighing on grain markets. The...
Specious on Trade; Weighing COVID and Biden
Specious on Trade When asked what it would take for the U.S. to re-engage in trade agreements like the CTTPP, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said, “So, I...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1975/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close...
Budget Reconciliation versus Farm Bill
The Biden Administration and Congressional Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package has $135 billion slated for the Agriculture Committ...
It is all Relative
The inflating costs of energy has some policymakers concerned about its impact on the economic recovery as consumers redirect their spending obligations. H...
PM Post - Funds Abandon Ship
THE OPEN November beans: 1 higher December meal: .20 higher December soyoil: 15 higher December corn: 1 lower December wheat:...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan wheat prices are increasing, especially in the Punjab, which has caused the Pakistan...
Technical Views - Adjusting Ahead of the WASDE
SPREADS Board crush trends weaker while oilshare values are mostly steady. Dec crush is trading at 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades at 46.20%. Se...
AM Outlook - Firmer on Demand and Short-covering
GOOD MORNING, The USDA report is around the corner on Friday, Sep 10. The markets are firmer overnight on a combination of short-covering, pri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.24/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2625/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseed Mixed to End Bearish Week; Cattle Futures Collapse
Note: The CBOT and WPI’s offices will be closed Monday, 6 September 2021 for the U.S. Labor Day holiday. The CBOT was mixed on Friday with soyb...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 6 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. As a result, we will not upda...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Diminishing Hunger Returns; Less than Worthless; Cushy Defense Policy
Diminishing Hunger Returns U.S. House Democrats have implored President Joe Biden to create a national conference on food, nutrition, and health to address...
Will Coming RVOs be a 2013-2016 Redux?
The 2021 and 2022 proposed RVOs, developed by EPA, have been under review at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for a week. As we reported last Frid...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.255/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.17/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Reality Check
What is it really worth? That is the fundamental question but technicals had been beating a path lower for the past several days. Today was a pause –...
Overwrought Reaction; Labor Shortages; Better Genes Oh My!
Overwrought Reaction New Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Cui Tiankai reinforced this week his reputation for hyperbole. He pointed to his country’s nu...
Livestock Round Up: Unusually Bullish Feeder Pig and Feeder Calf Prices
Two key trends bely what’s in store for meat and livestock in late 2021 and early 2022: the prices of feeder pigs and feeder cattle. As we wrote last...
Export Sales
Exports for August 20-26, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 295,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 15 percent...
Market Commentary: Technical Conditions Weaken; Lack of Gulf Market Eliminates Support
The CBOT was mostly red again on Wednesday with the same factors at play as have been all week. Weak (and weakening) technical conditions, fund liquidation...
Complexity of Competitiveness
U.S. political leadership is focused on competitiveness but may be oversimplifying requirements for its achievement. Most specifically, the political syste...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2275/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&n...
Getting Competitive; Big to Rescue India
Getting Competitive President Joe Biden rationalized the withdrawal from Afghanistan yesterday by first saying it was “no longer in our national inte...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Inventories Surpass Pre-African Swine Fever Levels Last week, China’s Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), Ma...
PM Post - More Selling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 7 lower Dec meal: 1.00 lower Dec soyoil: 60 lower Dec corn: 6 lower Dec wheat: 2 1/2 lower The markets opened l...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 August 2021 Prices for grain crops (except corn) in the domestic Russian market followed last week’s trend and increased...
Technical Views - Hunting New Lows
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.14c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.90%. Sep/Nov congests from 6 1/2c inverse to 7c. NOv/March beans trade out to...
AM Outlook - Slow Slide
GOOD MORNING, Prices in the night session started off the evening on a mixed note, mostly defensive, but losses accelerated in the last hour of trade. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Technical Follow-Through, Export Facility Damage
Technical pressure, end-of-month positioning, lack of export sales, good Midwest weather, and damage/lack of electricity to Gulf export facilities all comb...
Limits of Monetary Policy; Going for Mr./Ms. Big
Limits of Monetary Policy Progressives in the U.S. House of Representatives led by the Squad’s Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) are proving...
Cows and Milk Production Up in 2021; New Dairy Support Programs Announced
USDA’s most recent monthly dairy data shows that the number of milk cows declined in July for the second month in a row, after increasing month-over-...
Ida Sinks More than Katrina
Chicago futures saw the December corn contract lose 8.5 cents today and November soybeans lost 10¾ cents reportedly based on uncertainty about expor...
PM Post - Technically Broke
THE OPEN Nov beans: 6 lower Dec meal: .40 higher Dec soyoil: 90 lower Dec corn: 6 lower Dec wheat: 5 lower The markets opened...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s government says it will have about 530,000 MT of certified wheat seeds avail...
AM Outlook - Competitive Standstill
GOOD MORNING, Prices were weaker yesterday and are mixed this AM, with soyoil sporting the largest losses. Oilshare is lower again as traders b...
Technical Views - Sideways Chop
SPREADS December crush traded to 1.14c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.85%. Spreads were slightly firmer with Dec/March corn trading from 8c to...
Market Commentary: Multiple CBOT Markets Threaten Major Bearish Technical Developments
The CBOT opened weaker overnight and continued that trend into the morning with significant selling in September futures as traders exit before first notic...
Exaggerating Goliath; GI on Steroids; WTO Not WHO
Exaggerating Goliath Officials in the Biden Administration are determined to take down America’s big corporations and if they follow the focus of Kar...
Future Farmland Values Tied to Inflation and Taxes
USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) released the 2021 average farm real estate values. The average per acre value of land and buildings on f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4275/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.235/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Katrina Informs Ida on Ag Export Impact
Hurricane Ida has finished barreling through the critical Louisiana grain export infrastructure and the question is what will be the impact? First, while I...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Soil moisture is becoming a problem for Argentina’s wheat crop. Crop conditions keep falling due to drought across the wheat-growing region and...
PM Post - Harvest Pressure; Waiting for Exports
THE OPEN Nov beans: 1 higher Dec meal: .80 higher Dec soyoil: 20 lower Dec corn: 2 lower Dec wheat: 8 higher The market started the sessi...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s 2021/22 total grain exports have reached 7 MMT so far, up 10 percent from the same time last year. The Taliban&rs...
AM Outlook - Bull-Bear Mixup
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed overnight with the key feature that of profit-taking in oilshare, with weaker soyoil futures weighing on beans. ...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS December crush trades to 1.13cbu while oilshare trades to 45.27%. The Sep/Nov bean spread has moved from a 37c inverse down to 14c as we appr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Watches Hurricane, Fed Comments; Wheat Forming Technical Top?
The CBOT ended the week on a quiet note with most of the volume in grains related to rolling September positions forward ahead of first notice day on Tuesd...
Trade Policy Labor; Recovery Wish List
Trade Policy Labor USTR’s annual National Trade Estimates Report is a good source of the barriers and problems confronted by U.S. exporters in other...
RFS Volume Rule Under Review: Going Retro for 2020
We reported on Monday that the EPA would be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.325/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Fertilizer Prices and Production
DTN reports that for the first time in about nine months there was no significant increase in fertilizer prices this past month. Among the eight major comp...
Market Commentary: Anomalous and Cautious
It was a unique trading day amidst the caution surrounding the lack of fresh influences. Unique in that trading ranges for corn and soybeans were unusually...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5075/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.3925/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Common Poverty; Saved by Drought; Vietnam Concessions
Common Poverty Chinese President Xi Jinping has taken the Communist manifesto to heart and declared a “common prosperity” for all Chinese. Soci...
Livestock Round Up: Meat Demand Remains Strong
USDA released its food price outlook this morning. Monthly July over June prices were up 0.5 percent for beef, 1.9 percent for poultry, and 2.2 percent for...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Indian Soymeal; Canadian Canola; Renewable Diesel
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights The week ending 19 August was a good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans for shipment in 2021/22, but not so much for expor...
Export Sales
Exporters for the period August 13-19, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 116,000 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 62 percent fr...
Market Commentary: Corn Tests Key Resistance; World Vegoils Rally; Wheat Breaks Key Support
The CBOT was weaker overnight with rains for the Corn Belt pressuring the market. The day session, however, saw corn emerge as the upside leader on technic...