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Popularity and Planning

Demand for the Andean pseudo-cereal quinoa has seen impressive growth and production has expended to meet it. Mushrooms are the new plant-based substitute...

Short Supply Chain Fallacy; Border Tax Mayhem

Short Supply Chain Fallacy Buy local is tribal but has quaint, emotive appeal. The EU is giving policy support to short supply chains, provided they do not...

PM Post - Rebound but Directional Strength is Weak

THE OPEN November beans:  18 higher December meal:  4.50 higher December soyoil:  67 higher December corn:  13 1/4 higher December whea...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates  MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Saudi Arabia flour mill sales for the Second and Fourth Milling Companies has reportedl...

Am Outlook - Rebound

GOOD MORNING, Commodities and equities saw a nice rebound to start the night.  All posted gains at the start of the trading session, including soyoil...

Technical Views - Retracement and Filling Gaps

SPREADS August crush trades to 97.28c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.87%.  Sep oilshare trades to 47.27%.  Sep/Dec corn spread is firmer with an...

PNW Heatwave Impacts

The Pacific Northwest (PNW) of the U.S. is suffering drought and a heatwave rarely seen in recent history. The white wheat crop has been damaged for sure b...

E15 Legislation Proposed

As we previously reported (6 July), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration EPA’s decision to provide a wai...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5225/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.9775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Brazil  The Brazilian corn production estimates look poor indeed. The combination of intense drought and recent frost/freeze events caused huge,...

PM Post - Turning Lower

THE OPEN November beans:  3 higher December meal:  3.90 higher December soyoil:  52 lower December corn:  6 higher December wheat: ...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Weather continues to drive almost every market involving a crop planted in the ground. Flooding across Germany and parts of western Eur...

AM Outlook - Weather Reversal

GOOD MORNING, If the rains washed away gains over the last several weeks, a bit of hot and dry is now turning prices higher.  In the meantime, the Com...

Technical Views - New Lines of Support

SPREADS Sep crush trades to 1.24c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.70%.  August oilshare trades to new highs at 48.32%.  Sep/Dec corn inverse leaks...

The First Shot; Bad Shot

The First Shot U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping faced off today in a virtual meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Council (APEC) b...

Bearish Dairy and Lower Production Forecast

Drought, feed costs, and supply are weighing on milk production. The latest monthly data show that May daily milk production per cow is down half a pound f...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Hunger at Home, Food Abroad

Bloomberg reports a dramatic increase in hunger in India last year due to the economic losses from COVID. The Centre for Sustainable Employment in India be...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.925/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Wide Ranges, Watch Buying

THE OPEN November beans: 15 higher December meal:  4.40 higher December soyoil:  71 higher December corn:  6 higher December wheat:  15...

Technical Views - Eyes on Weather

SPREADS August crush trades to 90c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.63%.  Corn inverses are slightly weaker as new buying comes into December.  Sep...

AM Outlook - Upside Follow Through

GOOD MORNING,  Prices continue to firm in the overnight session with wheat gaining on corn, and meal on soyoil, for a change.  Weekly export sale...

Market Commentary: Weather Attention

The Fed continues to describe inflation as transient but said this week it is prepared to raise interest rates if proven wrong. Several business leaders ar...

Reality Check; Worker-Centric; Fit for 55

Reality Check The Mexican government says that it will halve the volume of corn imports by 2024 while concurrently eliminating the use of glyphosate. Meanw...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5625/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.72/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

PM Post - Thin and Choppy

THE OPEN Nov beans:  2 higher Dec meal:  2.90 lower Dec soyoil:  70 higher Dec corn:  1/2 lower Dec wheat:  5 higher  The mar...

Export Sales

USDA reports for the period July 2-8, 2021 Wheat:  Net sales of 424,700 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 46 percent from the previous week and 4...

AM Outlook - Congestion and Mixed Weather

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue in congestion trade with rains this week bearish but hot and dry forecasts next week keeping markets well supported.  Hi...

Technical Views - Staying in Bandwidth

SPREADS August crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare prices are 47.83%.  August /Nov bean inverse remains supported trading from 70c to 76 3/4c, while...

Market Commentary: Mind the Gaps

The CBOT was sharply higher on Wednesday with the July grain contracts officially rolling off the board. Twenty-six contracts of July corn were traded this...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.18 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.5425/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...

Conceding Market Share; Nationalist Diet

Conceding Market Share American agricultural exporters long ago gave up on hopes of boosting their market share in Europe but now Europe may be conceding o...

Reason to Produce

The countries producing the largest number of soybeans and corn are responding to current elevated prices. However, the response is uneven. China is switch...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomic Trends Food Prices in June See Biggest Decline Since November The average cost of food this past June fell by 1.7 percent from a year ago. Th...

PM Post - Seeking Value Levels

THE OPEN November beans:  15 higher December meal:  2.90 higher December soyoil:  49 higher December corn:  6 1/2 higher December wheat...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 July 2021 The domestic Russian grain market continued to switch to 2021 yield prices , and as a result prices decreased. Winter...

Technical Views - Up

SPREADS August crush trades up to 86c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.74%.  August /Nov bean inverse strengthens to 68 3/4c from 61 1/2c while Sep/Nov...

AM Outlook - Higher into the Open

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher heading into the open.  July futures expire today as noontime, and July corn placed a new contract high for the week a...

Past is Prologue; AMLO’s Advice; Chinese Land Grab

Past is Prologue Jeffrey Garten is a Yale University dean and a former official in four different U.S. administrations. His latest book, Three Days at Camp...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.3375/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Forest for the Trees

The spike in woods prices earlier this year has now subsided but there are longer term issues that need to be addressed. The production of forest products...

PM Post - Technical Recovery

THE OPEN November beans:  6 higher December meal:  4.50 lower December soyoil:  155 pts higher December corn:  1/2 lower December wheat...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Eid Holidays Muslim countries in the region will be closed for the Eid Al Adha religious cele...

Technical Views - Mostly Firmer

SPREADS August crush trades to 90.51c/bu while oilshare trades to 48.29%.  August / Nov bean inverse trades from 54 1/2c to 52 1/4c, while Sep/Nov tra...

AM Outlook - Report Has Come and Gone

GOOD MORNING, The report has come and gone, and in its wake set the trend for higher oilshare and higher beans vs corn.  The bullish wheat report set...

WASDE Soyoil

USDA’s July outlook for soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month.  ...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s July outlook for U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, unchanged from last month.  Harvested area, forecast at 86...

WASDE Corn

USDA’s July outlook for U.S. corn in 2021/22 is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. ...

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s July outlook for U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks.  Supplies ar...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4075/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close. ...

Cuban Tipping Point; Antitrust China; Kick Me

Cuban Tipping Point U.S. aggies have pushed for and dreamed about access to the Cuban market for decades. Despite its relatively small size (11 million peo...

Meat and Health

Some health advocates are pushing the narrative that plant-based diets are not only better for the planet but also good for one’s health. If true, th...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is still moving slowly due to high moisture content in the grain. Harvest has advanced just 8 percent in the past two w...

PM Post - Lows Printed, Back to Weather

THE OPEN Nov beans:  3 1/2 higher Dec meal:  1.40 lower December soyoil:  60 pts higher December corn:  2 3/4 higher December wheat:&nb...

Technical Views - Slow at Open

SPREADS September crush trades to 1.22c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.74%.  August / Nov bean inverse trade from 48c to 54 1/2c while Sep/Nov trades...

AM Outlook - Light Position Evening

GOOD MORNING, It is report day and traders do not expect to see many changes in the numbers, particularly where yields are concerned.  The report will...

EO “Attempts” Competitive Ag Economy

Much of the Biden Administration’s agriculture agenda was furthered today by an Executive Order (EO) issued from the White House while Secretary Vils...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.17/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.15/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 290,800 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022.   Corn:  Net sales of 173,200 MT...

Policy Retribution; Just in Time for the Weekend

Policy Retribution California is big, wealthy and has a great climate, everything that would create jealousy from other states. Then Sacramento makes the s...

Missing Vegetables

Some policymakers are signaling the desire for us to eat less meat and consume more vegetables. The question is whether the agricultural system is prepared...

PM Post - Mid-day Trend into the Close

THE OPEN November beans: 3 1/2 lower December meal:  1.70 lower December soyoil:  16 higher December corn:  7 lower December wheat:  3...

AM Outlook - Looking for Price Direction

GOOD MORNING, The markets seem to have run out of price direction except for the continuation of small fund liquidation into end-user pricing interest.&nbs...

Technical Views - Weaker Signals

SPREADS August crush trades to 84.39c/bu while oilshare remains steady at 46.0%.  Sep/Dec corn inverse strengthens to 15 1/4c from 13 1/4c.  &nbs...

Market Commentary: Fracking Brilliance; Uh Oh

We only analyze petroleum as a big sister commodity greatly influencing commodity indices (and thus ags) but right now something notable is happening. Oil...

U.S. Red Meat Exports Winning the Long Game

The May export data is in. Pork export volume was the third highest on record behind March 2020 and March 2021. Beef export volume set a historic record (a...

Courts to Trump EO; Labor Trumps Ag; Greens Trump Ag

Courts to Trump EO A new Executive Order (EO) by President Biden is easy politics but difficult law. The order will supposedly allow livestock producers to...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&...

PM Post - CBOT Sideways in Congestion Mode

THE OPEN: Nov beans: 10 lower Dec meal: 2.00 lower Dec soyoil: 65 lower Dec corn: 4 lower Dec wheat: 3 lower The markets opened as called with prices con...

AM Outlook - Grinding Sideways

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue grinding sideways into next Monday's July WASDE report.  Traders continue to liquidate length and oilshare.  Beans...

Technical Views - Downward Slope

SPREADS  August crush trades to 91.90c/bu while oilshare trades 45.61%.  August /Nov bean inverse trades to 43 1/2c down to 39 1/4c., while Sep/N...

We Have The Meat

There are a lot of voices discouraging the consumption of meat but for much of the world, demand continues to grow. Most of that demand growth is in Asia a...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&...

Worker-Centric Suicide; Politics are Back

Worker-Centric Suicide The Biden Administration says it wants a worker-centric trade policy, but no one is quite sure what that means. The workers at U.S...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Live Hog Price Up Nearly 22 Percent According to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the first state procurement...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 June-2 July 2021 The domestic Russian grain market kept switching to the prices of 2021 yield, so prices decreased, especially dr...

PM Post - Good Beans, Bad Grains

THE OPEN November beans:  15 higher December meal:  4.40 higher December soyoil:  10 higher December corn:  9 lower December wheat:&nbs...

AM Outlook - Weather = Wide Ranges

Good Morning, Overnight prices featured a technical rebound in the soy complex while grains were slightly firmer.   Prices should begin to find s...

Technical Views - Large Sideways Chop

SPREADS August crush trades to 96.23c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.66%.  July/Dec corn inverse trades to 1.24 1/2c, while the Sep/Dec inverse trades...

Market Commentary: Midwest Rains Spark Limit-Down Move

The CBOT collapsed on Tuesday with corn locked limit-down shortly after the opening bell and soybeans flirting with limit-down moves all day. Wheat futures...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.4 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.26/bushel, down $0.2675 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Courts Deal Biofuels Another Blow – This Time on E15

The Courts have handed another blow to biofuel producers. On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration's EP...

Land Use and Impact

The EU’s provisional agreement last week on changes to the Common Agricultural Policy envisions farmers setting aside 3 percent of their arable land...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The Moroccan Government has increased its estimate of the grain crops as a result of very goo...

Will Fuels Celebrate Independence Day from COVID?

This weekend marks a major demand for transportation fuel of all sorts, from gasoline to jet fuel. This Fourth of July weekend is projected to be the bigge...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close...

Happy Fourth of July

Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published Monday, 5 July in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resume our normal rep...

Battle of Oilseeds

In the U.S. the battle for planting area is between corn and soybeans but in Europe it appears to be between rapeseed and soybeans. In recent years, the ar...

Market Commentary: Next Day Respite

Days like yesterday are always interesting but so was today’s market action in its own quirky way. The expectation was follow-through after some limi...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.89/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.655/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. ...

Potential Squeeze Between Feed Cost and Line Speeds

Yesterday’s USDA acreage report was decidedly less friendly to the outlook for livestock than it was to corn and soybeans as it not only provided no...

“Rut Ro” Trade; Selective “Encagement”; Small Wins

"Rut Ro" Trade In the animated television series Scooby-Doo from the early 1970’s, the talking dog star of the show called Scooby-Doo warned of dange...

PM Post - New Ranges to be Defined

THE OPEN Nov. beans:  14 higher Dec meal:  5.70 higher Dec soyoil:  125 pts higher Dec corn:  19 higher Dec wheat:  9 1/2 higher T...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 226,300 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022.   Corn:  Net sales of 15,000 MT f...

AM Outlook - Time to Digest

GOOD MORNING, The USDA report sent prices sharply higher yesterday and the market will need a few days to digest the numbers.  Charts did a sharp U-tu...

Technical Views - More Gains

SPREADS August crush trades to 1.07c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.92%.  August/Nov beans trades from 31c from a high of 40 3/4c inverse.  Sep/D...

Corporate Good; Import Controls Lose; Transatlantic Movement

Corporate Good Following the Great Financial Crisis and continuing with the far left “Squad” in the U.S. Congress, capitalism has been under at...

Fooling the Experts

Market analysts over-estimated planted acres ahead of the March Planting Intentions Report and they did it again ahead of the June Acreage Report. The mark...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.485/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&n...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Price Reverses Slide, Ticks Up 2.5 Percent The national average domestic hog price saw a solid recovery last week after 20 straight week...

PM Post - Guessing Wrong

THE OPEN November beans:  7 lower December meal:  2.20 higher December soyoil:  88 lower December corn:  12 1/2 lower December wheat:&n...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 June 2021 Harvesting was the main factor impacting the prices on the Russian grain market. Export milling wheat average price...

Ag Review - June 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the commodities boom, policies i...

Technical Views - Softer Ahead of Reports

SPREADS August crush trades to 1.13c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.54%.  Jul/Nov bean inverse sits at 46 1/4c to 49 3/4c, while August/Nov firms to 2...

AM Outlook - Lower on Acreage Expectations

GOOD MORNING, Today's price action will be guided by the June 30 Stocks/Acreage report.   Trading ranges are confirmed, and though the night trad...

Greening Agriculture; Going to the Office

Greening Agriculture Washington and Brussels share the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions but are taking two very different approaches when it comes...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.485/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&n...

A Closer Look at Drought and Cattle

Yesterday, Matt Herrington reported on the drought conditions in the west and High Plains. The western U.S. is at its worst drought conditions in 20 years,...

Beans Make Meat

The USDA/FAS attaché in Lagos says that Nigerian soybean production and consumption is back on the rise. Soybean consumption will rise 38 percent in...

PM Post - Evaporating Weather Premium

THE OPEN November beans:  4 higher December meal:  4.60 lower December soyoil:  180 pts higher December corn:  1 higher December wheat:...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Algeria is expected to receive a shipment of 28,000 MT of Russian wheat – the first in...

Technical Views - Only Meal Down

SPREADS August crush trades higher to 1.18c/bu while oilshare moves up to 47.35%.  Heading into first notice day, the July/Nov bean inverse falls to 4...

AM Outlook - Position Day

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with the major feature that of higher oilshare.  Soyoil futures are sharply higher against a falling meal market. ...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4725/bushel, up $0.28 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.515/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...

Biden Echoes Trump; Infrastructure and Industrial Policy

Biden Echoes Trump Anyone in Geneva expecting a softer, nicer U.S. following the defeat of Donald Trump found out otherwise this past week. Although there...

Value versus Value-added in Grapes

The EU is the largest maker of wine, followed by the U.S., whereas China may be the largest producer of table grapes but its production of wine in any quan...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomics Argentina’s macroeconomic situation is not good. The peso, Argentina’s currency (AR$), has been depreciating in recent days whil...

PM Post - Recovery Trade

THE OPEN beans:  14 higher meal:  .80 lower soyoil:  170 higher corn:  4 higher wheat:  10 higher The markets opened as called and...

Supreme Court and SREs: Next Steps

As Gary Blumenthal reported on Friday, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, overruled the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on the EPA&rsquo...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The latest weather forecasts predict above normal temperatures for nearly all of Europe (except France) and the Black Sea this week wit...

AM Outlook - Higher Grain and Oilshare

GOOD MORNING, The markets, with the exception of meal, are higher on a combination of pricing, short-covering, and perhaps a bit of bargain hunting heading...

Technical Views - Within Ranges

SPREADS August crush trades to 1.11c/bu while oilshare firmer to 36.28%.   The expiration of July options dials down open interest tallies. ...

Cattle on Feed

• U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 11.7 million head on June 1, 2021.This is the second highest June 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. • Pla...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Neutral Cattle on Feed Report

USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today, which was mostly in-line with expectations.  The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,0...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.365/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4075/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close...

AM Outlook - Wide Variables = Wide Ranges

GOOD MORNING, The markets turned around yesterday after ratcheting the trading range lower again on rain and expectations for a bearish June 30 Acreage/Sto...

Technical Views - Some Soft, Some Strong

SPREADS August crush trades to 1.04c/bu while oilshare is higher as soyoil surges again overnight, trading up to 47.53%.  July open interest continues...

Market Commentary: Rue the Day

The market remained on its relatively bearish trend today with managed funds selling while many fundamentalists believe they will just have to eventually b...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5325/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.52/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Facebook Science; AMLO’s Goal; Increasing Imports

Facebook Science It appeared at one point that the power of new genetic technologies to safely solve many problems would eclipse the influence of the anti-...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Price Surges, Missing Data, and the Market Outlook While monthly food prices have only recently seen an increase from where they were a year...

PM Post - Selling Yields Buying

THE OPEN Nov beans:  30 lower Dec meal:  5.90 lower Dec soyoil:  159 pts lower Dec corn:  14 3/4 lower Dec wheat:  12 1/4 lower Pr...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 374,100 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022.    Corn:  Net sales of 216,3...

AM Outlook - Downside Follow Through

GOOD MORNING, The markets are lower as funds continue to liquidate length on continuing rainfall events over the US.  July open interest liquidation a...

Technical Views - Lower Track

SPREADS August crush trades up to 1.04c/bu while oilshare trades up to 46.0%.   July/Nov bean spread inverse falls to 79 1/2c from 90c while Augu...

Consolidation’s Diminishing Returns

While countries like Brazil and Ukraine are trying to consolidate farmland in order to gain efficiencies, Australia has always had some of the largest farm...

Workers Unite; TPP Rebound; Protectionist Chips; War for Chips

Workers Unite U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai told union workers in Michigan that the Biden Administration wants workers to have a seat at the tabl...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.6425/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.6375/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

PM Post - Market Sees Better Crops

THE OPEN Beans:  Aug. up 1 and Nov down 3 Meal:   2.50 lower Soyoil:  60 pts higher Corn:  5 1/2 lower Wheat:  6 1/4 higher T...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 June 2021 The influence of the 2021 yield on the Russian market increased as harvesting progressed in the south of Russia. Tod...

June Cold Storage Report

U.S. red meat stocks continue to trend below year-ago levels with exceptional consumer and export demand tightening beef and pork supplies. Pork stocks inc...

Technical Views - Up and Down

SPREADS August crush trades to 98c/bu while oilshare trades up to 45.20%.  August/ Nov bean inverse trades from 47c up to 54 1/4c.  Sep/Dec meal...

AM Outlook - Soyoil Carries the Market

GOOD MORNING, The overnight price action featured another session of strong oilshare and soyoil price action.  Soyoil helped beans to find a bid, even...

Market Commentary: CBOT Slides on Midwest Rains; Corn Bull Spreads Persist

The CBOT ended Tuesday on a mixed note with rains forecast for the western Corn Belt pressuring markets. Corn futures saw continued bull spreading, however...

Carbon Credit Certification Program Likely to Pass Congress

Gary Blumenthal wrote yesterday about the trend toward carbon labels on food products. To facilitate that, the Senate is expected to vote this week on the...

Length of Commodities Boom

There are an increasing number of reports citing the potential for the recent jump in commodities prices to be more than just a short-term dynamic. Masayuk...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5975/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Volatility Ahead of Reports

THE OPEN August beans:  3 lower, Nov beans 8 lower August meal:  2.50 lower August soyoil:  17 lower Sep corn:  6 lower, Dec corn 7 low...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee has approved the importation of 3 MMT of whe...

Technical Vies - Breaks and Buys

SPREADS August crush trades to 90.84/cub while oilshare firms to 44.18% from values starting this week at 43.35%.  Inverses are firmer with August /No...

AM Outlook - Mixed Continues

GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight were mixed as soyoil prices returned to weakness taking beans along for the ride.  Grains are mixed led by wheat to the...

Waiting on the RVOs, EIA Forecast on Ethanol Blending

The market is still awaiting the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS. Rumors hit the market last week that the proposal was forthcomin...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire; Carbon Manipulation; Hard to Kill

Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire The most impactful part of last week’s G7 communique was not the blah, blah, blah about saving the world from the pandemic...

Backwards on TFP

While activists to Ukraine’s east decry Big Ag and romanticize about the superiority of small, inefficient farms, Kiev’s new law will enable th...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5925/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.615/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia is expected to ship 28,000 MT of wheat to Algeria this month, the first shipment of wheat since December 2016. Russia has been l...

PM Post - Bull Spreading and Short-Covering

THE OPEN Nov beans: 32 lower Dec meal:  5.50 lower Dec soyoil:  140 pts lower Dec corn:  21 1/2 lower Dec wheat:  14 1/2 lower Prices o...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Dry weather is helping reduce moisture in the corn crop and the harvest pace is slowly increasing. Last week, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported...

Technical Views - Down the Range

SPREADS August crush trades to 92c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.03%.  July/Nov bean inverse trades from 83 3/4c to 93 3/4c.  Sep/Dec meal trade...

AM Outlook - Bulls Dampened

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower as a good amount of rain fell across portions of the Midwest recharging soil moisture.  The June 30 Stocks/Acreage repo...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5525/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6275/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Communist Entrepreneurs; Catastrophes; Post-Pandemic Offices

Communist Entrepreneurs In capitalist societies, parents that are entrepreneurs tend to have children that also become entrepreneurs. Researchers in the U...

Plotting Dots to Fight Inflation

On 30 April , we reported about inflation, massive government spending, and the reopening economy. As we wrote: Alleviating supply chain bottlene...

Venezuelan “Opportunity”

Venezuelan strongman leader Nicolas Maduro told Bloomberg that he wants U.S. President Joe Biden to end the sanctions imposed by Donald Trump and to allow...

PM Post - Back Toward Higher Ranges

THE OPEN July beans: 55 higher July meal:  6.30 higher July soyoil:  130 pts higher July corn:  12 higher July wheat: 9 1/2 higher The marke...

AM Outlook - Post the Sell-Off

GOOD MORNING, The markets are higher after prices reached new monthly lows on a combination of pricing, short-covering, and new buying activity.  Comm...

Technical Views - Regaining Lost Ground

SPREADS August crush trades to 84c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.62%.  Jul/Nov bean inverse trades from 1.04 1/2c down to 75 3/4c.   Sep/De...

Market Commentary: Burning Down the House

There was red all over the board today with corn, soyoil, canola, and lean hogs all down the limit, and soybeans down close to the limit. It was downright...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.33/bushel, down $0.4 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.39/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 287,100 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022.  Increases primarily for Japan (95,100 MT,...

Communist S&D

During the late 1990’s and through the early 2000’s, Beijing consulted with a lot of western economists who guided the nation’s emergence...

PM Post - On the Defensive

THE OPEN July beans:  35 lower July meal:  2.30 lower July soyoil:  359 pts lower July corn:  19 lower July wheat:  8 3/4 lower Pr...

AM Outlook - Buffeted by Rumors and Stories

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower again on technical considerations as beans trend lower following a still weaker soyoil market.  Funds were sellers of 1...

Technical Views - Pushing Lower

SPREADS August crush trades 85c/bu while oilshare trades lower to 43.31%.   Bean spreads are firmer with July/Nov trading to 1.12 1/2c from 1.05c...

Market Commentary: Corn Refuses to Fall; Soybeans Refuse to Rally

Weather forecasts and changes thereto continue to drive the CBOT. Markets were initially weaker on overnight results from the GFS model that favored better...

Biofools Bull; Central American Band-Aid; Getting to Salazar

Biofools Bull Market economists hate government policy intrusions and the requirement to blend biofuels ranks among the most egregious but there is curiosi...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.73/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Falling Pig Prices Push Government to Consider Interventions The national average live pig price fell below RMB 15/kg ($2.35/kg) or RMB 6.80/lb...

PM Post - As Called, July Corn Supported

THE OPEN July beans: 1 lower July meal:  3.00 higher July soyoil:  99 lower July corn: 7 1/2 higher Dec wheat:  3 3/4 higher The markets own...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 June 2021 Russian domestic grain markets have heard the first trumpets of the new crop approach. However, bearish sentiments ar...

Some Lower, Some Higher

SPREADS August crush trades to 94c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.38%.  Jul/Nov bean inverse trades from 89c from 1.03c, while Sep/Dec meal carry trad...

AM Outlook - Shorts, End-Users Lock in Profits

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed today with beans into new lows and soyoil weak, but grain prices firming.   Shorts and end-users are attempting to...

Market Commentary: Cattle Rally While Hogs, CBOT Fall

The CBOT opened higher in an attempt to stabilize after succumbing to pressure from negative political news, technical weakness, and improving weather/supp...

RFS To Do List: Reduced RVO Coming?

On Friday we reported on the lobbying effort by merchant refiners – and more specifically their labor unions – to get a waiver from the RFS. Bu...

Transatlantic Agreements – Good and Bad

U.S. President Joe Biden has been busy in Europe this past week and the results are a mixed bag of tricks. Boeing-Airbus Dispute: The two sides will withdr...

Popular India Soy and Maize

The U.S. has complained that India has underreported to the WTO on its wheat and rice subsidies, which involve the largest crops receiving support. However...

PM Post - Firmness on Inverses

THE OPEN July beans: 2 higher July meal:  2.20 lower July soyoil:  50 higher July corn:  9 lower July wheat:  21 lower The markets open...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  According to recent reports, India will export about 400,000 MT of corn in June and July with...

Technical Views - All over the Board

SPREADS August oilshare is firmer again trading up to 46.29%.  Crush trades to 97c/bu.  Bull-spreads are firmer this morning.  Nov/July bean...

AM Outlook - Testing Support

GOOD MORNING, Prices are attempting to stabilize after funds sold a decent amount of corn, beans, and soyoil on better chances for rainfall, negative polit...

Supply Chain Situation; G7 Dreams; Job Killer

Supply Chain Situation; G7 Dreams; Job Killer Last week the Biden Administration issued partial results from analysis of critical supply chains under Presi...

Farmers’ Outlook on Land Values, Investments and Taxes

According to the May edition of the Purdue University Ag Barometer, farmers see farmland values remaining high and are likely to scale back on planned equi...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5925/bushel, down $0.2525 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.745/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close...

India’s Soy Outpaces

The head of India’s soybean processing trade association said that the nation’s soybean harvest area will expand by 10 percent this year. India...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3.7 percent last week, a slow pace that is keeping overall progress well below prior years. The speed has not...

PM Post - Not as Long as Before

THE OPEN July beans:  46 lower July meal:  9.50 lower July soyoil:  340 lower July corn:  26 lower July wheat:  21 lower Prices op...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe’s weather is trending warm and dry for the next two weeks but that is only likely to aid crop development after a cool sta...

Technical Views - Lower Range

SPREADS August crush trades to 78c/bu while oilshare trades down to 45.23%.  Spreads are firmer with the July /Nov bean inverse trading up to 83 3/4c...

AM Outlook - Weight on the Market

GOOD MORNING, Prices opened lower and continued the sell-off driven by soyoil's sharply lower price action, as talk circulates that the Biden administratio...

RINs and Repeat of RFS Waivers

When it comes to biofuels policy and the White House, it is the same song but in a different key. The Biden White House is caught between two political bas...

Hot Red Meat; Farming Profession

Hot Red Meat As American and European leaders are meeting there is yet another key transatlantic difference, but it needs no negotiation and that is meat...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.845/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.&nb...

PM Post - Back and Forth

THE OPEN July beans:  10 lower July meal:  1.10 lower July soyoil:  230 pts lower  Julu corn:  9 lower July wheat:  7 1/2 low...

AM Outlook - Report Reverberates

GOOD MORNING, Prices started the night on a steady note but this morning will open lower.  Sharply lower soyoil futures are pressuring beans, and pric...

Technical Views - Retracement

SPREADS August crush trades to 79c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.43%.  Today is the last day of the Goldman Roll as July futures wind down.  Jul...

WASDE Soyoil

Soybean oil exports for 2020/21 are reduced 400 million pounds to 1.9 billion as high U.S. prices reduce competitiveness in the world market. Conversely, d...

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels because of a lower forecast domestic meal disappearance and higher soybean meal imports. ...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks.  Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21...

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. corn is for a modest reduction in beginning stocks because of ethanol and export demand.  The forecast season-av...

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for the new 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop is for higher production. All wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Note – First week of the New Crop year: Hence, Net sales of 325,900 MT for the 2021/2022 marketing year, which began June 1, were primar...

Market Commentary: That Was Fun

The markets started the day bullishly for corn and soybeans but with losses in wheat. Post the USDA WASDE report things changed. Larger soybean stocks flip...

Livestock Round Up: Labor and Cattle Markets

JBS is back in the news this week as the company made two announcements; first, that it would be adding 300,000 head of capacity at its Omaha and Grand Isl...

Summary of Futures

Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.99/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...

Transatlantic Reconciliation; Leash-less Dogs

Transatlantic Reconciliation The U.S. – EU consultations this week surrounding the China-focused G-7 meeting likely has the politicians ahead of some...

PM Post - Bean Bulls Must Focus on Bottom Line

THE OPEN July beans:  7 higher July meal: .70 higher July soyoil;  37 higher July corm:   6 higher July wheat:  7 lower The market...

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