Demand for the Andean pseudo-cereal quinoa has seen impressive growth and production has expended to meet it. Mushrooms are the new plant-based substitute...
Articles
Short Supply Chain Fallacy; Border Tax Mayhem
Short Supply Chain Fallacy Buy local is tribal but has quaint, emotive appeal. The EU is giving policy support to short supply chains, provided they do not...
Dual Track Infrastructure and Budget Bills Pulling Out of Station Tomorrow
The Congressional August recess is coming soon with the Senate scheduled to adjourn on 9 August. That means the next three weeks provide a busy legislative...
PM Post - Rebound but Directional Strength is Weak
THE OPEN November beans: 18 higher December meal: 4.50 higher December soyoil: 67 higher December corn: 13 1/4 higher December whea...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia flour mill sales for the Second and Fourth Milling Companies has reportedl...
Am Outlook - Rebound
GOOD MORNING, Commodities and equities saw a nice rebound to start the night. All posted gains at the start of the trading session, including soyoil...
Technical Views - Retracement and Filling Gaps
SPREADS August crush trades to 97.28c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.87%. Sep oilshare trades to 47.27%. Sep/Dec corn spread is firmer with an...
Market Commentary: Macro Selling Scuttles CBOT; Wheat Finds Strength on Dry U.S. Weather
The CBOT started higher overnight but a huge selloff in stocks, energies, and other macro-markets crushed the rally after the day session began. Only wheat...
PNW Heatwave Impacts
The Pacific Northwest (PNW) of the U.S. is suffering drought and a heatwave rarely seen in recent history. The white wheat crop has been damaged for sure b...
E15 Legislation Proposed
As we previously reported (6 July), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration EPA’s decision to provide a wai...
Why Inflation is Real; Answers for Carbon Banking and Inflation
Why Inflation is Real The debate amongst economists as to whether the current spike in inflation is transitory or a longer lasting trend is almost entirely...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5225/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.9775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Brazil The Brazilian corn production estimates look poor indeed. The combination of intense drought and recent frost/freeze events caused huge,...
PM Post - Turning Lower
THE OPEN November beans: 3 higher December meal: 3.90 higher December soyoil: 52 lower December corn: 6 higher December wheat: ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Weather continues to drive almost every market involving a crop planted in the ground. Flooding across Germany and parts of western Eur...
AM Outlook - Weather Reversal
GOOD MORNING, If the rains washed away gains over the last several weeks, a bit of hot and dry is now turning prices higher. In the meantime, the Com...
Technical Views - New Lines of Support
SPREADS Sep crush trades to 1.24c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.70%. August oilshare trades to new highs at 48.32%. Sep/Dec corn inverse leaks...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on U.S. Heat, EU Flooding, China Buying; Corn, Soybeans Trade Weather
The CBOT traded higher overnight with wheat and soybeans leading the way. Concerns about low-quality wheat in Europe fueled a rally in the Paris market tha...
The First Shot; Bad Shot
The First Shot U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping faced off today in a virtual meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Council (APEC) b...
Bearish Dairy and Lower Production Forecast
Drought, feed costs, and supply are weighing on milk production. The latest monthly data show that May daily milk production per cow is down half a pound f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Hunger at Home, Food Abroad
Bloomberg reports a dramatic increase in hunger in India last year due to the economic losses from COVID. The Centre for Sustainable Employment in India be...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.925/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Wide Ranges, Watch Buying
THE OPEN November beans: 15 higher December meal: 4.40 higher December soyoil: 71 higher December corn: 6 higher December wheat: 15...
Technical Views - Eyes on Weather
SPREADS August crush trades to 90c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.63%. Corn inverses are slightly weaker as new buying comes into December. Sep...
AM Outlook - Upside Follow Through
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to firm in the overnight session with wheat gaining on corn, and meal on soyoil, for a change. Weekly export sale...
Market Commentary: Weather Attention
The Fed continues to describe inflation as transient but said this week it is prepared to raise interest rates if proven wrong. Several business leaders ar...
Reality Check; Worker-Centric; Fit for 55
Reality Check The Mexican government says that it will halve the volume of corn imports by 2024 while concurrently eliminating the use of glyphosate. Meanw...
Livestock Round Up: Policy Clouds Gathering on Meat Industry Horizon
As we’ve covered previously, there are a number of plans and proposals for dramatic policy changes relative to livestock and meat packing. This week,...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Export Sales; June Soybean Crush; Return of La Nina; Continuing Drought
Fairly Positive Week for U.S. Soybean and Soymeal Export Sales Today’s USDA export sales report had no surprises. Sales and exports of soybeans and s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5625/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.72/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - Thin and Choppy
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 2.90 lower Dec soyoil: 70 higher Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 5 higher The mar...
Export Sales
USDA reports for the period July 2-8, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 424,700 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 46 percent from the previous week and 4...
AM Outlook - Congestion and Mixed Weather
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue in congestion trade with rains this week bearish but hot and dry forecasts next week keeping markets well supported. Hi...
Technical Views - Staying in Bandwidth
SPREADS August crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare prices are 47.83%. August /Nov bean inverse remains supported trading from 70c to 76 3/4c, while...
Market Commentary: Mind the Gaps
The CBOT was sharply higher on Wednesday with the July grain contracts officially rolling off the board. Twenty-six contracts of July corn were traded this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.18 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.5425/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...
Conceding Market Share; Nationalist Diet
Conceding Market Share American agricultural exporters long ago gave up on hopes of boosting their market share in Europe but now Europe may be conceding o...
Reason to Produce
The countries producing the largest number of soybeans and corn are responding to current elevated prices. However, the response is uneven. China is switch...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomic Trends Food Prices in June See Biggest Decline Since November The average cost of food this past June fell by 1.7 percent from a year ago. Th...
PM Post - Seeking Value Levels
THE OPEN November beans: 15 higher December meal: 2.90 higher December soyoil: 49 higher December corn: 6 1/2 higher December wheat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 July 2021 The domestic Russian grain market continued to switch to 2021 yield prices , and as a result prices decreased. Winter...
Technical Views - Up
SPREADS August crush trades up to 86c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.74%. August /Nov bean inverse strengthens to 68 3/4c from 61 1/2c while Sep/Nov...
AM Outlook - Higher into the Open
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher heading into the open. July futures expire today as noontime, and July corn placed a new contract high for the week a...
Market Commentary: Wheat Stalls Despite Bullish Fundamentals; Corn, Soybeans Firm Post-WASDE
The CBOT was mostly higher following yesterday’s fundamental reports with corn and soybeans leading the way. Wheat saw surprisingly little follow-thr...
USDA to Propose New “Product of USA” Labeling Rules for Meat
Last Friday, we reported on the new Executive Order from the Administration on various competitive issues for agriculture and the meat sector. As we mentio...
Past is Prologue; AMLO’s Advice; Chinese Land Grab
Past is Prologue Jeffrey Garten is a Yale University dean and a former official in four different U.S. administrations. His latest book, Three Days at Camp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.3375/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Forest for the Trees
The spike in woods prices earlier this year has now subsided but there are longer term issues that need to be addressed. The production of forest products...
PM Post - Technical Recovery
THE OPEN November beans: 6 higher December meal: 4.50 lower December soyoil: 155 pts higher December corn: 1/2 lower December wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Eid Holidays Muslim countries in the region will be closed for the Eid Al Adha religious cele...
Technical Views - Mostly Firmer
SPREADS August crush trades to 90.51c/bu while oilshare trades to 48.29%. August / Nov bean inverse trades from 54 1/2c to 52 1/4c, while Sep/Nov tra...
AM Outlook - Report Has Come and Gone
GOOD MORNING, The report has come and gone, and in its wake set the trend for higher oilshare and higher beans vs corn. The bullish wheat report set...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s July outlook for soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month. ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s July outlook for U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, unchanged from last month. Harvested area, forecast at 86...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s July outlook for U.S. corn in 2021/22 is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. ...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s July outlook for U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies ar...
Market Commentary: USDA Surprises with Wheat Cuts; Upside Potential Still Lingers
The CBOT was called to open higher heading into the July WASDE and markets did just that. Canola offered initial support, gapping higher and trading to lim...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4075/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close. ...
Cuban Tipping Point; Antitrust China; Kick Me
Cuban Tipping Point U.S. aggies have pushed for and dreamed about access to the Cuban market for decades. Despite its relatively small size (11 million peo...
Meat and Health
Some health advocates are pushing the narrative that plant-based diets are not only better for the planet but also good for one’s health. If true, th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is still moving slowly due to high moisture content in the grain. Harvest has advanced just 8 percent in the past two w...
PM Post - Lows Printed, Back to Weather
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 1/2 higher Dec meal: 1.40 lower December soyoil: 60 pts higher December corn: 2 3/4 higher December wheat:&nb...
Technical Views - Slow at Open
SPREADS September crush trades to 1.22c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.74%. August / Nov bean inverse trade from 48c to 54 1/2c while Sep/Nov trades...
AM Outlook - Light Position Evening
GOOD MORNING, It is report day and traders do not expect to see many changes in the numbers, particularly where yields are concerned. The report will...
Market Commentary: Corn Breaks Support; Canola Finds Its Limit; Soybeans Form Bear Flag?
The CBOT saw stronger selling pressure than was initially expected with funds continuing to lighten up on long positions heading into Monday’s WASDE...
EO “Attempts” Competitive Ag Economy
Much of the Biden Administration’s agriculture agenda was furthered today by an Executive Order (EO) issued from the White House while Secretary Vils...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.17/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.15/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 290,800 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022. Corn: Net sales of 173,200 MT...
Policy Retribution; Just in Time for the Weekend
Policy Retribution California is big, wealthy and has a great climate, everything that would create jealousy from other states. Then Sacramento makes the s...
Missing Vegetables
Some policymakers are signaling the desire for us to eat less meat and consume more vegetables. The question is whether the agricultural system is prepared...
PM Post - Mid-day Trend into the Close
THE OPEN November beans: 3 1/2 lower December meal: 1.70 lower December soyoil: 16 higher December corn: 7 lower December wheat: 3...
AM Outlook - Looking for Price Direction
GOOD MORNING, The markets seem to have run out of price direction except for the continuation of small fund liquidation into end-user pricing interest.&nbs...
Technical Views - Weaker Signals
SPREADS August crush trades to 84.39c/bu while oilshare remains steady at 46.0%. Sep/Dec corn inverse strengthens to 15 1/4c from 13 1/4c. &nbs...
Market Commentary: Fracking Brilliance; Uh Oh
We only analyze petroleum as a big sister commodity greatly influencing commodity indices (and thus ags) but right now something notable is happening. Oil...
U.S. Red Meat Exports Winning the Long Game
The May export data is in. Pork export volume was the third highest on record behind March 2020 and March 2021. Beef export volume set a historic record (a...
Courts to Trump EO; Labor Trumps Ag; Greens Trump Ag
Courts to Trump EO A new Executive Order (EO) by President Biden is easy politics but difficult law. The order will supposedly allow livestock producers to...
Oilseed Highlights: Canadian Canola; U.S. Soymeal; Indian Monsoon; China ASF; Soy Stocks
Canadian Canola Crop is in Big Trouble. While most of the attention in the U.S. has been focused on the drought in the upper Midwest the drought in the Can...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&...
PM Post - CBOT Sideways in Congestion Mode
THE OPEN: Nov beans: 10 lower Dec meal: 2.00 lower Dec soyoil: 65 lower Dec corn: 4 lower Dec wheat: 3 lower The markets opened as called with prices con...
AM Outlook - Grinding Sideways
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue grinding sideways into next Monday's July WASDE report. Traders continue to liquidate length and oilshare. Beans...
Technical Views - Downward Slope
SPREADS August crush trades to 91.90c/bu while oilshare trades 45.61%. August /Nov bean inverse trades to 43 1/2c down to 39 1/4c., while Sep/N...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed as Corn Selling Continues; End-Users Become Buyers
The CBOT found continued selling from Tuesday’s market implosion with corn and SRW wheat seeing the brunt of the pressure. Corn futures settled lower...
We Have The Meat
There are a lot of voices discouraging the consumption of meat but for much of the world, demand continues to grow. Most of that demand growth is in Asia a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&...
Worker-Centric Suicide; Politics are Back
Worker-Centric Suicide The Biden Administration says it wants a worker-centric trade policy, but no one is quite sure what that means. The workers at U.S...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Live Hog Price Up Nearly 22 Percent According to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the first state procurement...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 June-2 July 2021 The domestic Russian grain market kept switching to the prices of 2021 yield, so prices decreased, especially dr...
PM Post - Good Beans, Bad Grains
THE OPEN November beans: 15 higher December meal: 4.40 higher December soyoil: 10 higher December corn: 9 lower December wheat:&nbs...
AM Outlook - Weather = Wide Ranges
Good Morning, Overnight prices featured a technical rebound in the soy complex while grains were slightly firmer. Prices should begin to find s...
Technical Views - Large Sideways Chop
SPREADS August crush trades to 96.23c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.66%. July/Dec corn inverse trades to 1.24 1/2c, while the Sep/Dec inverse trades...
Market Commentary: Midwest Rains Spark Limit-Down Move
The CBOT collapsed on Tuesday with corn locked limit-down shortly after the opening bell and soybeans flirting with limit-down moves all day. Wheat futures...
Name Calling One; Name Calling Two; China’s Self-Limitations; Value of Imports; Traitor to the Cause
Name Calling One Slammed by the lower cost of related catfish subspecies imported from Vietnam and China, U.S. catfish farmers have tried various approache...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.4 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.26/bushel, down $0.2675 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Courts Deal Biofuels Another Blow – This Time on E15
The Courts have handed another blow to biofuel producers. On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration's EP...
Land Use and Impact
The EU’s provisional agreement last week on changes to the Common Agricultural Policy envisions farmers setting aside 3 percent of their arable land...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The Moroccan Government has increased its estimate of the grain crops as a result of very goo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed; DC Court Rules Against E15; Wheat Decouples from Corn
Note: The CBOT/CME markets are closed Monday, 5 July 2021 for the U.S. Independence Day holiday. CBOT trade was expectedly quiet heading into the lon...
Will Fuels Celebrate Independence Day from COVID?
This weekend marks a major demand for transportation fuel of all sorts, from gasoline to jet fuel. This Fourth of July weekend is projected to be the bigge...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close...
Happy Fourth of July
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published Monday, 5 July in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resume our normal rep...
Battle of Oilseeds
In the U.S. the battle for planting area is between corn and soybeans but in Europe it appears to be between rapeseed and soybeans. In recent years, the ar...
Market Commentary: Next Day Respite
Days like yesterday are always interesting but so was today’s market action in its own quirky way. The expectation was follow-through after some limi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.89/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.655/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. ...
Potential Squeeze Between Feed Cost and Line Speeds
Yesterday’s USDA acreage report was decidedly less friendly to the outlook for livestock than it was to corn and soybeans as it not only provided no...
“Rut Ro” Trade; Selective “Encagement”; Small Wins
"Rut Ro" Trade In the animated television series Scooby-Doo from the early 1970’s, the talking dog star of the show called Scooby-Doo warned of dange...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Argentina Soybeans; China Soy Stocks; Midwest Drought
Positive U.S. Soybean and Soymeal Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated exporters made very large sales of soybeans last...
PM Post - New Ranges to be Defined
THE OPEN Nov. beans: 14 higher Dec meal: 5.70 higher Dec soyoil: 125 pts higher Dec corn: 19 higher Dec wheat: 9 1/2 higher T...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 226,300 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022. Corn: Net sales of 15,000 MT f...
AM Outlook - Time to Digest
GOOD MORNING, The USDA report sent prices sharply higher yesterday and the market will need a few days to digest the numbers. Charts did a sharp U-tu...
Technical Views - More Gains
SPREADS August crush trades to 1.07c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.92%. August/Nov beans trades from 31c from a high of 40 3/4c inverse. Sep/D...
Market Commentary: USDA Shocks Market with Smaller Grain Stocks and Acreage Numbers
USDA surprised the market with bullish Grain Stocks and Acreage reports that sent futures sharply higher by Wednesday’s close. Grain stocks were well...
Corporate Good; Import Controls Lose; Transatlantic Movement
Corporate Good Following the Great Financial Crisis and continuing with the far left “Squad” in the U.S. Congress, capitalism has been under at...
Fooling the Experts
Market analysts over-estimated planted acres ahead of the March Planting Intentions Report and they did it again ahead of the June Acreage Report. The mark...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.485/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&n...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Reverses Slide, Ticks Up 2.5 Percent The national average domestic hog price saw a solid recovery last week after 20 straight week...
PM Post - Guessing Wrong
THE OPEN November beans: 7 lower December meal: 2.20 higher December soyoil: 88 lower December corn: 12 1/2 lower December wheat:&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 June 2021 Harvesting was the main factor impacting the prices on the Russian grain market. Export milling wheat average price...
Ag Review - June 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the commodities boom, policies i...
Technical Views - Softer Ahead of Reports
SPREADS August crush trades to 1.13c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.54%. Jul/Nov bean inverse sits at 46 1/4c to 49 3/4c, while August/Nov firms to 2...
AM Outlook - Lower on Acreage Expectations
GOOD MORNING, Today's price action will be guided by the June 30 Stocks/Acreage report. Trading ranges are confirmed, and though the night trad...
Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates Before USDA Reports; Canola Posts All-Time High on Weather Risks
The CBOT was expectedly mixed ahead of first notice day and the USDA’s two major reports tomorrow. Traders were adjusting positions and paring back r...
Greening Agriculture; Going to the Office
Greening Agriculture Washington and Brussels share the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions but are taking two very different approaches when it comes...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.485/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&n...
A Closer Look at Drought and Cattle
Yesterday, Matt Herrington reported on the drought conditions in the west and High Plains. The western U.S. is at its worst drought conditions in 20 years,...
Beans Make Meat
The USDA/FAS attaché in Lagos says that Nigerian soybean production and consumption is back on the rise. Soybean consumption will rise 38 percent in...
PM Post - Evaporating Weather Premium
THE OPEN November beans: 4 higher December meal: 4.60 lower December soyoil: 180 pts higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat:...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Algeria is expected to receive a shipment of 28,000 MT of Russian wheat – the first in...
Technical Views - Only Meal Down
SPREADS August crush trades higher to 1.18c/bu while oilshare moves up to 47.35%. Heading into first notice day, the July/Nov bean inverse falls to 4...
AM Outlook - Position Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with the major feature that of higher oilshare. Soyoil futures are sharply higher against a falling meal market. ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4725/bushel, up $0.28 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.515/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rally Sharply on Poor U.S. and Brazilian Weather
The CBOT was mostly higher with short covering, bargain buying, and end-user pricing supporting futures. China has resumed its normal new-crop purchase of...
Biden Echoes Trump; Infrastructure and Industrial Policy
Biden Echoes Trump Anyone in Geneva expecting a softer, nicer U.S. following the defeat of Donald Trump found out otherwise this past week. Although there...
Value versus Value-added in Grapes
The EU is the largest maker of wine, followed by the U.S., whereas China may be the largest producer of table grapes but its production of wine in any quan...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics Argentina’s macroeconomic situation is not good. The peso, Argentina’s currency (AR$), has been depreciating in recent days whil...
PM Post - Recovery Trade
THE OPEN beans: 14 higher meal: .80 lower soyoil: 170 higher corn: 4 higher wheat: 10 higher The markets opened as called and...
Supreme Court and SREs: Next Steps
As Gary Blumenthal reported on Friday, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, overruled the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on the EPA&rsquo...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The latest weather forecasts predict above normal temperatures for nearly all of Europe (except France) and the Black Sea this week wit...
AM Outlook - Higher Grain and Oilshare
GOOD MORNING, The markets, with the exception of meal, are higher on a combination of pricing, short-covering, and perhaps a bit of bargain hunting heading...
Technical Views - Within Ranges
SPREADS August crush trades to 1.11c/bu while oilshare firmer to 36.28%. The expiration of July options dials down open interest tallies. ...
Cattle on Feed
• U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 11.7 million head on June 1, 2021.This is the second highest June 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. • Pla...
Market Commentary: SCOTUS Scuttles Soyoil; Favorable Midwest Weather; Livestock Markets Firm
The CBOT was mostly in the red to finish the week, except for spring wheat futures and the livestock complex. Grains and oilseeds opened higher but politic...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Neutral Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today, which was mostly in-line with expectations. The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,0...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.365/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4075/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close...
Hello Waivers; Advantage Beef; Homegrown Goliath; CAP Reform Agreement
Hello Waivers The adage in law is to not ask questions to which you do not already know the answer. Otherwise, you might receive an answer that you do not...
AM Outlook - Wide Variables = Wide Ranges
GOOD MORNING, The markets turned around yesterday after ratcheting the trading range lower again on rain and expectations for a bearish June 30 Acreage/Sto...
Technical Views - Some Soft, Some Strong
SPREADS August crush trades to 1.04c/bu while oilshare is higher as soyoil surges again overnight, trading up to 47.53%. July open interest continues...
Market Commentary: Rue the Day
The market remained on its relatively bearish trend today with managed funds selling while many fundamentalists believe they will just have to eventually b...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Inventory Down; Cattle on Feed Preview Steady
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today with most all categories coming in near pre-report expectations. Total inventory was 75.7 million he...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5325/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.52/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Facebook Science; AMLO’s Goal; Increasing Imports
Facebook Science It appeared at one point that the power of new genetic technologies to safely solve many problems would eclipse the influence of the anti-...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soymeal Exports; Soyoil Boosting Soymeal Exports; Argentine Soy
Larger U.S. Soymeal Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exports of soybeans and soyoil continued to be seasonally l...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Price Surges, Missing Data, and the Market Outlook While monthly food prices have only recently seen an increase from where they were a year...
PM Post - Selling Yields Buying
THE OPEN Nov beans: 30 lower Dec meal: 5.90 lower Dec soyoil: 159 pts lower Dec corn: 14 3/4 lower Dec wheat: 12 1/4 lower Pr...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 374,100 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022. Corn: Net sales of 216,3...
AM Outlook - Downside Follow Through
GOOD MORNING, The markets are lower as funds continue to liquidate length on continuing rainfall events over the US. July open interest liquidation a...
Technical Views - Lower Track
SPREADS August crush trades up to 1.04c/bu while oilshare trades up to 46.0%. July/Nov bean spread inverse falls to 79 1/2c from 90c while Augu...
Market Commentary: Rains Pressure Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rallies on Dryness; Hogs and Cattle Weaker before Reports
The CBOT was mixed again as the central U.S. weather forecast improves. Corn and soybeans traded lower for the day with soybeans posting larger losses as t...
Consolidation’s Diminishing Returns
While countries like Brazil and Ukraine are trying to consolidate farmland in order to gain efficiencies, Australia has always had some of the largest farm...
Workers Unite; TPP Rebound; Protectionist Chips; War for Chips
Workers Unite U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai told union workers in Michigan that the Biden Administration wants workers to have a seat at the tabl...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.6425/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.6375/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - Market Sees Better Crops
THE OPEN Beans: Aug. up 1 and Nov down 3 Meal: 2.50 lower Soyoil: 60 pts higher Corn: 5 1/2 lower Wheat: 6 1/4 higher T...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 June 2021 The influence of the 2021 yield on the Russian market increased as harvesting progressed in the south of Russia. Tod...
June Cold Storage Report
U.S. red meat stocks continue to trend below year-ago levels with exceptional consumer and export demand tightening beef and pork supplies. Pork stocks inc...
Technical Views - Up and Down
SPREADS August crush trades to 98c/bu while oilshare trades up to 45.20%. August/ Nov bean inverse trades from 47c up to 54 1/4c. Sep/Dec meal...
AM Outlook - Soyoil Carries the Market
GOOD MORNING, The overnight price action featured another session of strong oilshare and soyoil price action. Soyoil helped beans to find a bid, even...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slides on Midwest Rains; Corn Bull Spreads Persist
The CBOT ended Tuesday on a mixed note with rains forecast for the western Corn Belt pressuring markets. Corn futures saw continued bull spreading, however...
Phase One Flaws; Agricultural Supports Critique; Broken Appointments System
Phase One Flaws Headlines surrounding China’s import purchases from the U.S. reflect the challenge of politically motivated purchasing agreements. On...
Carbon Credit Certification Program Likely to Pass Congress
Gary Blumenthal wrote yesterday about the trend toward carbon labels on food products. To facilitate that, the Senate is expected to vote this week on the...
Length of Commodities Boom
There are an increasing number of reports citing the potential for the recent jump in commodities prices to be more than just a short-term dynamic. Masayuk...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5975/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Volatility Ahead of Reports
THE OPEN August beans: 3 lower, Nov beans 8 lower August meal: 2.50 lower August soyoil: 17 lower Sep corn: 6 lower, Dec corn 7 low...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee has approved the importation of 3 MMT of whe...
Technical Vies - Breaks and Buys
SPREADS August crush trades to 90.84/cub while oilshare firms to 44.18% from values starting this week at 43.35%. Inverses are firmer with August /No...
AM Outlook - Mixed Continues
GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight were mixed as soyoil prices returned to weakness taking beans along for the ride. Grains are mixed led by wheat to the...
Market Commentary: Bull Spreading Erases Early Weakness; Hogs Crash Heading into June Report
Welcome to summer 2021! For weeks now, the CBOT has been trading as if it were summer and weather the paramount factor, but yesterday marked the true offic...
Waiting on the RVOs, EIA Forecast on Ethanol Blending
The market is still awaiting the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS. Rumors hit the market last week that the proposal was forthcomin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire; Carbon Manipulation; Hard to Kill
Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire The most impactful part of last week’s G7 communique was not the blah, blah, blah about saving the world from the pandemic...
Backwards on TFP
While activists to Ukraine’s east decry Big Ag and romanticize about the superiority of small, inefficient farms, Kiev’s new law will enable th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5925/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.615/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia is expected to ship 28,000 MT of wheat to Algeria this month, the first shipment of wheat since December 2016. Russia has been l...
PM Post - Bull Spreading and Short-Covering
THE OPEN Nov beans: 32 lower Dec meal: 5.50 lower Dec soyoil: 140 pts lower Dec corn: 21 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 14 1/2 lower Prices o...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Dry weather is helping reduce moisture in the corn crop and the harvest pace is slowly increasing. Last week, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported...
Technical Views - Down the Range
SPREADS August crush trades to 92c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.03%. July/Nov bean inverse trades from 83 3/4c to 93 3/4c. Sep/Dec meal trade...
AM Outlook - Bulls Dampened
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower as a good amount of rain fell across portions of the Midwest recharging soil moisture. The June 30 Stocks/Acreage repo...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5525/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6275/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: China, Bargain Buying Fuel CBOT Rally; Technical Selloff Was Overdone
Yesterday’s CBOT selloff was overdone, and traders went to work Friday to correct that error. WPI remains bullish CBOT commodities, especially after...
Communist Entrepreneurs; Catastrophes; Post-Pandemic Offices
Communist Entrepreneurs In capitalist societies, parents that are entrepreneurs tend to have children that also become entrepreneurs. Researchers in the U...
Plotting Dots to Fight Inflation
On 30 April , we reported about inflation, massive government spending, and the reopening economy. As we wrote: Alleviating supply chain bottlene...
Venezuelan “Opportunity”
Venezuelan strongman leader Nicolas Maduro told Bloomberg that he wants U.S. President Joe Biden to end the sanctions imposed by Donald Trump and to allow...
PM Post - Back Toward Higher Ranges
THE OPEN July beans: 55 higher July meal: 6.30 higher July soyoil: 130 pts higher July corn: 12 higher July wheat: 9 1/2 higher The marke...
AM Outlook - Post the Sell-Off
GOOD MORNING, The markets are higher after prices reached new monthly lows on a combination of pricing, short-covering, and new buying activity. Comm...
Technical Views - Regaining Lost Ground
SPREADS August crush trades to 84c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.62%. Jul/Nov bean inverse trades from 1.04 1/2c down to 75 3/4c. Sep/De...
Market Commentary: Burning Down the House
There was red all over the board today with corn, soyoil, canola, and lean hogs all down the limit, and soybeans down close to the limit. It was downright...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Slaughter and Prices Still Up this Week
Cattle slaughter was 665,000 head last week, much closer to where it needs to be to move through the supply of cattle. As of today, week-to-date, slaughter...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.33/bushel, down $0.4 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.39/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 287,100 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022. Increases primarily for Japan (95,100 MT,...
Communist S&D
During the late 1990’s and through the early 2000’s, Beijing consulted with a lot of western economists who guided the nation’s emergence...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; India Soybeans; Brazil and Argentine Soymeal; Weather
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS weekly export sales report continued to show low U.S. soy export sales and also a slowing down of export...
PM Post - On the Defensive
THE OPEN July beans: 35 lower July meal: 2.30 lower July soyoil: 359 pts lower July corn: 19 lower July wheat: 8 3/4 lower Pr...
AM Outlook - Buffeted by Rumors and Stories
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower again on technical considerations as beans trend lower following a still weaker soyoil market. Funds were sellers of 1...
Technical Views - Pushing Lower
SPREADS August crush trades 85c/bu while oilshare trades lower to 43.31%. Bean spreads are firmer with July/Nov trading to 1.12 1/2c from 1.05c...
Market Commentary: Corn Refuses to Fall; Soybeans Refuse to Rally
Weather forecasts and changes thereto continue to drive the CBOT. Markets were initially weaker on overnight results from the GFS model that favored better...
Biofools Bull; Central American Band-Aid; Getting to Salazar
Biofools Bull Market economists hate government policy intrusions and the requirement to blend biofuels ranks among the most egregious but there is curiosi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.73/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Falling Pig Prices Push Government to Consider Interventions The national average live pig price fell below RMB 15/kg ($2.35/kg) or RMB 6.80/lb...
PM Post - As Called, July Corn Supported
THE OPEN July beans: 1 lower July meal: 3.00 higher July soyoil: 99 lower July corn: 7 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 3 3/4 higher The markets own...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 June 2021 Russian domestic grain markets have heard the first trumpets of the new crop approach. However, bearish sentiments ar...
Some Lower, Some Higher
SPREADS August crush trades to 94c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.38%. Jul/Nov bean inverse trades from 89c from 1.03c, while Sep/Dec meal carry trad...
AM Outlook - Shorts, End-Users Lock in Profits
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed today with beans into new lows and soyoil weak, but grain prices firming. Shorts and end-users are attempting to...
Market Commentary: Cattle Rally While Hogs, CBOT Fall
The CBOT opened higher in an attempt to stabilize after succumbing to pressure from negative political news, technical weakness, and improving weather/supp...
RFS To Do List: Reduced RVO Coming?
On Friday we reported on the lobbying effort by merchant refiners – and more specifically their labor unions – to get a waiver from the RFS. Bu...
Transatlantic Agreements – Good and Bad
U.S. President Joe Biden has been busy in Europe this past week and the results are a mixed bag of tricks. Boeing-Airbus Dispute: The two sides will withdr...
Popular India Soy and Maize
The U.S. has complained that India has underreported to the WTO on its wheat and rice subsidies, which involve the largest crops receiving support. However...
PM Post - Firmness on Inverses
THE OPEN July beans: 2 higher July meal: 2.20 lower July soyoil: 50 higher July corn: 9 lower July wheat: 21 lower The markets open...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA According to recent reports, India will export about 400,000 MT of corn in June and July with...
Technical Views - All over the Board
SPREADS August oilshare is firmer again trading up to 46.29%. Crush trades to 97c/bu. Bull-spreads are firmer this morning. Nov/July bean...
AM Outlook - Testing Support
GOOD MORNING, Prices are attempting to stabilize after funds sold a decent amount of corn, beans, and soyoil on better chances for rainfall, negative polit...
Market Commentary: Vegoil Weakness Pressures Soy Complex; More Rain in Midwest Forecast
Friday’s market weakness carried over into Sunday night’s trade and that of Monday’s day session. Nearly every grain/oilseed market broke...
Supply Chain Situation; G7 Dreams; Job Killer
Supply Chain Situation; G7 Dreams; Job Killer Last week the Biden Administration issued partial results from analysis of critical supply chains under Presi...
Farmers’ Outlook on Land Values, Investments and Taxes
According to the May edition of the Purdue University Ag Barometer, farmers see farmland values remaining high and are likely to scale back on planned equi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5925/bushel, down $0.2525 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.745/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close...
India’s Soy Outpaces
The head of India’s soybean processing trade association said that the nation’s soybean harvest area will expand by 10 percent this year. India...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3.7 percent last week, a slow pace that is keeping overall progress well below prior years. The speed has not...
PM Post - Not as Long as Before
THE OPEN July beans: 46 lower July meal: 9.50 lower July soyoil: 340 lower July corn: 26 lower July wheat: 21 lower Prices op...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s weather is trending warm and dry for the next two weeks but that is only likely to aid crop development after a cool sta...
Technical Views - Lower Range
SPREADS August crush trades to 78c/bu while oilshare trades down to 45.23%. Spreads are firmer with the July /Nov bean inverse trading up to 83 3/4c...
AM Outlook - Weight on the Market
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened lower and continued the sell-off driven by soyoil's sharply lower price action, as talk circulates that the Biden administratio...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Collapses on Global Vegoil Weakness; Dakota Rains Again Pressure Grains
Weaker technical conditions, limit-down soyoil, and more rains for the Dakotas conspired to push the CBOT sharply lower on Friday. Thursday’s WASDE s...
RINs and Repeat of RFS Waivers
When it comes to biofuels policy and the White House, it is the same song but in a different key. The Biden White House is caught between two political bas...
Hot Red Meat; Farming Profession
Hot Red Meat As American and European leaders are meeting there is yet another key transatlantic difference, but it needs no negotiation and that is meat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.845/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.&nb...
PM Post - Back and Forth
THE OPEN July beans: 10 lower July meal: 1.10 lower July soyoil: 230 pts lower Julu corn: 9 lower July wheat: 7 1/2 low...
AM Outlook - Report Reverberates
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the night on a steady note but this morning will open lower. Sharply lower soyoil futures are pressuring beans, and pric...
Technical Views - Retracement
SPREADS August crush trades to 79c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.43%. Today is the last day of the Goldman Roll as July futures wind down. Jul...
WASDE Soyoil
Soybean oil exports for 2020/21 are reduced 400 million pounds to 1.9 billion as high U.S. prices reduce competitiveness in the world market. Conversely, d...
WASDE Soymeal
U.S. soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels because of a lower forecast domestic meal disappearance and higher soybean meal imports. ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. corn is for a modest reduction in beginning stocks because of ethanol and export demand. The forecast season-av...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the new 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop is for higher production. All wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month...
Export Sales
Wheat: Note – First week of the New Crop year: Hence, Net sales of 325,900 MT for the 2021/2022 marketing year, which began June 1, were primar...
Market Commentary: That Was Fun
The markets started the day bullishly for corn and soybeans but with losses in wheat. Post the USDA WASDE report things changed. Larger soybean stocks flip...
Livestock Round Up: Labor and Cattle Markets
JBS is back in the news this week as the company made two announcements; first, that it would be adding 300,000 head of capacity at its Omaha and Grand Isl...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.99/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Transatlantic Reconciliation; Leash-less Dogs
Transatlantic Reconciliation The U.S. – EU consultations this week surrounding the China-focused G-7 meeting likely has the politicians ahead of some...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy and WASDE; U.S. Soy Export Sales; French Rapeseed Crop
Relatively Few Significant Changes for Soy in USDA WASDE Report Some expected the June monthly WASDE update released today to make substantial changes to t...
PM Post - Bean Bulls Must Focus on Bottom Line
THE OPEN July beans: 7 higher July meal: .70 higher July soyoil; 37 higher July corm: 6 higher July wheat: 7 lower The market...