In his address to Congress this week, President Biden laid out two major initiatives, the American Families Plan and the American Jobs Plan. According to a...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.3475/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Spreads = Tale of Two Markets
THE OPEN July beans: 9 lower July meal: 3.80 lower July soyoil: 57 lower July corn: 1/ higher July wheat: 9 1/2 lower The mar...
Technical Views - Downside profit-taking
SPREADS July crush trades down to 83c/bu while oilshare trades at 41.58%. Spreads are weaker with deliveries, with May/July beans trading to an inver...
AM Outlook - Caution and Profit-taking
GOOD MORNING, Prices are leaning lower in the overnight session as the much talked about first notice day is here. Soyoil and beans traded lower into...
Market Commentary: Game of Spreads
Volatility remains the best descriptor for the futures market as today saw a mixed opening, some see-sawing up and down, and finally a mixed closing. The c...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Sector Keeping an Eye on Capital Gains and Pasture Conditions
Agriculture policy is never a big component of the State of the Union address – if mentioned at all. However, as we wrote on Monday, “Given the...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.4825/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.29/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 223,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 73 percent from the prior 4-week averag...
GMO Battle Ahead; GMO Barrier to Trade
GMO Battle Ahead The future of farming, which is to say producing enough food under the duress of climate change and with less burden on the environment wi...
Ag Review - April 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine issues surrounding livestock, th...
PM Post - Not the Top
THE OPEN July beans: 9 higher July meal: .20 lower July soyoil: 64 higher July corn: 3 3/4 higher July wheat: 1 3/4 lower The marke...
Technical Views - Support for Higher Values
SPREADS July crush trades to 84c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 42.25%. Spreads remain strong with July/Nov beans closing at the highs of 1.95 1/...
AM Outlook - New Positions
GOOD MORNING, The mission of the market is now to define trading ranges from our new ctr highs heading into the summer. Increased talk of increased U...
Market Commentary: Uncertain CBOT Outlook Drives Volatility
CBOT markets pulled back hard overnight and followed through on yesterday’s hook reversals. Overnight trading volume was large, and more than 70,000...
Inflation Downplayed; Squashing Taste
Inflation Downplayed U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed recent signals of inflation, arguing they would settle down later in the y...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.44/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.2275/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
Rapeseed Production Increases
Over the past 10-months, surplus stocks of most major vegetable oils have declined, causing prices to rise. The exceptions are surplus supplies of rapeseed...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Cash Live Hog Price Shows Further Weakness, Futures Rise The national average live hog price showed further weakness last week after a solid reco...
PM Post - Bulls Get Technical
THE OPEN July beans: 9 lower Jul meal: .20 lower Jly soyoil: 93 lower July corn: 12 lower July wheat: 16 lower The markets started...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 April 2021 Grain prices on the domestic market mainly grew following global trends. Export milling wheat average price grew to...
AM Outlook - Correction Over?
GOOD MORNING, Prices saw down-side follow-through overnight following the sell-off yesterday. Is the panic buying over? We are approachin...
Technical Views - Defining New Bottom
SPREADS July crush trades to 83c/bu while oilshare trades to 41.10%. Spreads remain firm with July/Nov trading up to 1.85 1/2c from 1.73 1/2c.&...
Market Commentary: Hook Reversal, Line and Sinker?
Multiple CBOT markets/contracts formed a moderately bearish “hook reversal” on Tuesday. A hook reversal is a day when a contract trades to a ne...
F2F Fight; Meat’s Message; Colossal WTO Fight
F2F Fight The battle between the EU’s new Green Deal and Farm2Fork strategies and U.S. farmers was joined today at a meeting of the Chicago-based Far...
Record Dairy Cow Herd… But For How Long?
The economic bounce from the re-opening economy – including restaurants and schools – seemed to have been a bigger force than high feed prices...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.545/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.3275/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...
Not on My Turf
In 1968, the U.S. had 29 percent of the global market for wheat flour and Turkey had a 0.004 percent share. By 2019, The U.S. share was down to 3.4 percent...
PM Post - Coverage and Profits
THE OPEN July beans: 2 higher July meal: 2.40 lower July soyoil: 1.40 higher July corn; 2 higher July wheat: 3 higher The markets o...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Syria is reported to have covered most of its wheat needs into 2022 through arrangements with Russi...
Technical Views - Over-extension
SPREADS July crush trades up to 91.39c/bu while oil share trades to new highs of 42.29%. Jul/Dec corn inverse trades up to 97c, new highs, from 90 1/...
AM Outlook - High RSI's
GOOD MORNING, New highs were again posted for some of the markets. May beans trades over $16.00, while May corn trades over $7.00. Corn prices...
Market Commentary: New Highs to Start the Week; Technical Buying Rules the Day
Corn, soybeans, wheat, KC wheat, and soyoil all posted fresh contract highs to start the week. Continued dryness in Brazil and rising basis in the U.S. spa...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.575/bushel, up $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.395/bushel, up $0.2725 from yesterday's close. ...
Green Spin
President Biden’s announced commitment to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in half in just nine years is being viewed as nothing but a political doc...
Scaled Back Pomp, Plenty of Circumstance Coming in POTUS Speech
Scheduled action is light this week in Congress as President Biden will deliver an address to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday 28 April, effectivel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina It has been a very interesting week for the corn market. Argentina’s corn harvest is moving slowly with rains and high soil mois...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Markets are increasingly concerned about growing dryness in the Northern Hemisphere. Drought is expanding in the U.S. Northern Plains a...
Resilient Meat Production
Surplus corn stocks are tightening, and prices are rising, which should ration demand from users such as the livestock sector. However, looking back at the...
PM Post - Higher and Sometimes Overbought
THE OPEN July beans: 15 higher July meal: 3.50p higher July soyoil: 38 higher July corn: 22 higher July wheat: 21...
AM Outlook - Same Bullish Story
GOOD MORNING, Prices trade to new contract highs across the board once again, (except for meal), as Brazil remains dry, weather in the US remains problemat...
Technical Views - Heading Upward
SPREADS July crush trades at 69.52c /bu while oilshare trades down to 40.99%. Spreads remain firm with July/NOv inverse from 1.84 1/2c down to...
Market Commentary: Funds Trade Both Sides to End Week of Massive Rallies
The CBOT traded both sides of unchanged at the end of a volatile week filled with large rallies. Grain and oilseed futures dipped lower overnight and teste...
Biden Trade Policy; Biden Farm Eco-Policy
Biden Trade Policy President Joe Biden has tried to make clear that his trade policy is starkly different that his predecessors, both for its focus on coll...
Cattle on Feed: Near Record April Inventory
USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today. The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 11.5 million head, up 105 perc...
Cattle on Feed
• U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent on April 1, 2021 at 11.9 million head. • Placements in feedlots during March totaled 2.00 million head, 28 per...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $6.555/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.1225/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
April Cold Storage Report
U.S. red meat and poultry stocks continue to trend below year-ago levels, driven largely by decreases in pork stocks but tigthening beef supplies as well...
PM Post - Profits Before Weekend
THE OPEN July beans: 3 1/2 lower July meal: 2.50 lower July soyoil: 5 lower July corn: 5 lower July wheat: 1/2 lower The mark...
Not Just Food
The tightening global stocks situation is not just impacting food crops but fiber as well. Global production of cotton is down 7.4 percent at the same time...
Technical Views - Pausing to Profit and Digest
SPREADS July crush trades to 68.20c/bu while oilshare trades up to 41.0%. Spreads remain firm with July/Nov bean inverse trading up to 1.81 1/2c from...
AM Outlook - Weather, Fundamentals, Macros
GOOD MORNING, It's a weather story, it's a fundamental story, it's a macro story. In bear markets, all the news is bad news, and in bull market...
Market Commentary: Run on the Bank
Wall Street was shedding value today and it appeared to all be going to Chicago. There were very high trading volumes even in soymeal, which otherwise had...
Cattle on Feed Preview: Drought, Grain Prices Squeezing Feeder Cattle
USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 April a...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $6.505/bushel, up $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.105/bushel, up $0.355 from yesterday's close. J...
China Bashing; Lesson for Dairy
China Bashing The U.S. Senate Committee on Finance held a hearing today on U.S.-China Relations: Improving U.S. Competitiveness Through Trade. The hearing...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 240,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up 55 percent from the prior 4-week avera...
PM Post - Pricing Ideas Raised
THE OPEN July beans: 18 higher July meal: 1.50 higher July soyoil: 139 pts higher July corn: 7 higher July wheat: 4 higher Prices o...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Renewable Diesel Deals; China Feed; India Meal
Soy Export Sales Highlights USDA's export sales report for the week ending 15 April indicated U.S. export sales of soybeans for export in 2020/21 continue...
Summary of Futures
Wheat: Net sales of 240,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up 55 percent from the prior 4-week avera...
AM Outlook - Funds Push Higher
GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight continued strong and posted several more contract highs. Funds were adding to long positions in a big way yesterday, a...
Technical Views - Higher in Range
SPREADS July crush trades to 64.80c/bu while oilshare trades to 40.93%. Jly/Dec corn trades above 70c to 75c inverse, and pullbacks could continue to...
Market Commentary: Fund Buying Pushes CBOT to New Highs; Corn, Soybean Shorts Nervous Ahead of First Notice
The CBOT pushed to new contract highs overnight but found some profit taking and were generally weaker heading into the morning open. Technically, a few co...
Right Sized; Russian Meltdown
Right Sized How large should farms be? That has become an issue in Europe, which like the U.S. started as a social issue but is now morphing in the EU into...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $6.255/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.75/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. J...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock First Quarter Data On Hog Recovery Progress Sends Mixed Signals According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country&rsquo...
Hire Better Lobbyists
The Biden Administration has put forth a proposed $2+ trillion plan partially dedicated to improved national infrastructure and paid for by the wealthy and...
PM Post - The Close
THE OPEN July beans: 2 lower July meal: 3.00 lower July soyoil: 33 higher July corn: 3 lower July wheat: 3 lower...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 April 2021 Grain prices on the domestic market mainly grew following global trends and an increase of the export prices becaus...
AM Outlook - Potential Reversal Trade
GOOD MORNING, Corn and bean prices set new contract highs again overnight before seeing some morning profit-taking. Soyoil futures also set new contr...
Technical Views - Mixed on Adjustments
SPREADS July crush trades to 61.87c/bu while oilshare values trades higher to 40.24%. Bean spreads are firmer with July/Nov trading up to 1.63 3/4c f...
Market Commentary: Funds are Massive Buyers on Rising Basis, U.S. Cold Snap
The CBOT rallied sharply on Tuesday with corn and soybeans posting new contract highs overnight. The day session saw funds immediately emerge as net buyers...
GOP Climate Policy Proposals: Fancy Acronyms, Credit Market Plans
Republicans on the House Agriculture Committee have introduced several climate related bills, all with very catchy acronyms – part of the political m...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $6.065/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6125/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...
Designed Obsolescence; Infrastructure, Environment; Miscellany
Designed Obsolescence According to reports, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has called for a third-party audit of the organization’s staff t...
Designed Shortages
Global lumber demand is expanding at the same time wildfires and pests are destroying some forests and around the world countries are under pressure to pre...
PM Post - Ongoing Premium
THE OPEN July beans: 21 higher July meal: 4.90 higher July soyoil: 180 pts higher July corn: 6 higher July wheat: 7 3/4 highe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s government has increased the wheat demand estimates for 2021 by 2 MMT to 29...
AM Outlook - Another Firm Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices trend higher on dryness in SA and cold weather extremes in the US. When bull markets begin a break-out to the upside buying acti...
Technical Views - Continuing Trend
SPREADS July crush trades to 61.51c, while oilshare trades to 39.85%. Spreads firm with Jul/Nov bean inverse strengthening up to 1.62 1/2c from...
Market Commentary: New Highs for New Crop Corn and Soy
Funds followed strong technical indicators in December corn and November soybeans and pushed those contracts to new highs on Monday. Old crop corn and soyb...
Climate Tightrope; Carbon Sinking; Revolutionary Approaches
Climate Tightrope President Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate kicks off late this week and his plan to commit to a 50 percent reduction (from 2005 le...
Farm Financing: Lower Demand for Loans
The rally in crop prices in MY 2020/2021 coupled with government issued COVID relief payments has reduced the demand for commercial farm loans. The Kansas...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.92/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.5375/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest is making slow progress with high soil moisture and high grain moisture preventing fieldwork. Farmers c...
Sustainability Measurements
There are several different metrics used to measure sustainability. Given the limited and depleting amount of fresh water sources, looking at the amount of...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe continues to struggle with drought with conditions especially concerning for the UK. Most of western and northern Europe has exp...
PM Post - Good Uptrends
THE OPEN May beans: 8 higher May meal: 2.20 higher May soyoil: 25 lower May corn: 8 higher May wheat: 1 3/4 higher The market...
Technical Views - Well Supported
SPREADS July crush trades to 61.80c/bu while oilshare trades to 39.85%. Bean spreads continue firm with July/NOv trading up to 1.54c from 1.48 1/4c,...
AM Outlook - Lot of Moving Parts
GOOD MORNING, Overnight highlights included a rallying corn market and new contract highs in canola futures. Dec. corn trades to new contract highs a...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Gain on Corn; Livestock Futures Plummet; Worrying U.S. Long-Term Weather Outlook
The CBOT traded a mixed day with the soy complex showing pronounced strength as soybeans look to catch up to the corn market’s early-week rally. Worl...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Killing Meat; Migrant Labor’s Future
Killing Meat California will require 100 percent cage-free eggs next year and is now crafting a requirement that sows be given at least 24 square feet of l...
Progress on Hemp as Livestock and Poultry Feed
Two years ago last month, we posed the question, Does Hemp Have a Role in Livestock Feed? Montana’s response to that question is, “yes.&r...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.525/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Sustainability Measurements
By the rhetoric and adverse publicity, agriculture would appear to be failing when it comes to sustainability. But just as air and water quality have stati...
PM Post - Some Tops, Some Not
THE OPEN May beans: 6 1/2 higher May meal .80 lower May soyoil: 85 higher May corn: 2 higher May weather: 5 higher The market...
Technical Views - Only Soft Meal
SPREADS July crush trades up to 64.02c/bu while oilshare trades higher, recovering losses to trade up to 39.52%. July/Nov bean inverse trades h...
AM Outlook - Firmer Values
GOOD MORNING, Values are firmer across the board, except for meal, as global demand continues to improve. Ocean freight, a barometer of overall deman...
Market Commentary: Shortages, Oh My
Corn traded over $6/bushel for the first time since 2013. The Chinese continue to buy and now biofuels demand is bouncing back. One buyer said corn is actu...
Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook
It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales reductions of 56,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the...
Rise of Populist Agriculture; Whither Economics
Rise of Populist Agriculture There is a political left in American agriculture, though it is significantly smaller than the progressives that dominate the...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Exports Sales; NOPA Soy Crush; Belgium Biofuels; Argentine Soy Crop
U.S. Soy Export Sales Continue Seasonal Decline Today’s USDA weekly export sales report for the week ending 8 April shows a continuation of the seaso...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.9/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.5375/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Correcting Back to Beans
THE OPEN May beans: 6 1/2 higher May meal: 1.50 higher May soyoil: 45 higher May corn: 2 1/4 higher May wheat: 1 lower...
AM Outlook - Strengthening Uptrends
GOOD MORNING, Corn prices continue to roll on to the upside with new contract highs, with May over the $6.00 benchmark. Corn futures follow higher Da...
Technical Views - Upramp
SPREADS July crush trades to 59.35c/bu, while oilshare trades firmer to 39.31%. Spreads are firmer with July /Nov beans trading from 1.38 1/4c to 1.4...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts New Contract High; Brazilian Crop Under Stress; Cattle Continue to Fall
The CBOT rallied sharply on Wednesday with fund managers following through on yesterday’s Turnaround Tuesday and signs of U.S. inflation. More specif...
Stopping AMLO; Factless Frontiers; Protecting Status Quo
Stopping AMLO U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is headed to Mexico and Central America to supposedly investigate the cause of the surge in illegal immigra...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.94/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.48/bushel, up $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Ma...
Planting Progressively Faster
The weather is being watched carefully this time of year for any adverse impacts on the planting schedule but thus far it is progressing on time or ahead o...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Tank, Down More Than 14 Percent Last Week The Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (MARA) data show the national live hog p...
PM Post - Fresh Money Flows
THE OPEN May beans: 8 higher May meal: .70 higher May soyoil: 35 higher May corn: 8 1/2 higher May wheat: 11 higher The markets ope...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 April 2021 Grain prices on the domestic market grew moderately or remained unchanged. The demand was low as sellers didn’t...
Technical Views - Higher to Sideways
SPREADS Today is day 5 of the Goldman Roll. July corn, meal, soyoil, wheat and bean futures now have higher open interest than in May contracts, as f...
AM Outlook - Externals, Tightness
GOOD MORNING, Inflation talk propped up prices yesterday as new money flows into commodities in general, with inflows into ags as well. Dec. co...
Market Commentary: Inflation Sparks Turnaround Tuesday; Cattle Test Trendline Support
It was Turnaround Tuesday at the CBOT with talk of U.S. inflation and continued weather issues for the Brazilian safrinha corn crop offering support. Corn...
What Could Go Wrong?
The unclassified portion of the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s latest “Global Trends” report is pollyannish next to what wargamers...
Odd Timing for Proposed CRP Expansion
There's an old adage that in politics, timing is everything. About nine months ago, vastly expanding the acreage set-aside under the Conservation Research...
King Sorghum
For many decades, sorghum was the Rodney Dangerfield of row crops, it could not get any respect. Over the past three years as total U.S. corn acreage expan...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.8/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.2975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. M...
PM Post - Fluctuating Weak/Strong
THE OPEN May beans: 6 1/2 higher May soyoil: 81 higher May meal; .40 lower May corn: 3 3/4 higher May wheat: 6 1/2 higher The...
Dalian Futures Market Analysis
Quarterly Summary Surge in March Trading Volume Concludes Brisk Q1 Agricultural futures trading activity on the Dalian Commodity Exchange kicked into high...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The Muslim month Ramadan, a period of fasting, prayer, reflection and family time, begins tod...
Technical Views - Retracing
SPREADS July crush trades higher to 61.63c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.41%. The July/Nov bean inverse weakens to 1.26 1/4c vs. 1.31c, while...
AM Outlook - Bounce Back
GOOD MORNING, Prices are set for turn-around Tuesday as we open into the green except for meal. May contracts continue to liquidate as we enter day 4...
CBOT Falls on Fund Selling; Hog Futures Post Bearish Reversal
Funds were aggressive sellers at the CBOT on Monday, with fundamental weakness in palm oil/soyoil spilling over and triggering liquidation across the board...
Discounted Rainforest; Age to Die; Packing the Court
Discounted Rainforest Europeans are opposing a free trade agreement with Mercosur, in large part because they argue Brazil does too little to stop destruct...
Disparate Pricing
The EU seeks to have 25 percent of its production under organic rules by 2030 but some have doubts about whether the incentives will be large enough to the...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.28/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
A Closer Look at the WASDE for Livestock
Friday’s WASDE reduced the outlook for pork production reflecting the December to March quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The hog herd was down 1 perce...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Local corn markets remain dynamic as the harvest continues but at a delayed pace. Good weather last week allowed farmers to harvest an additional 4 pe...
PM Post - Cashing Out
THE OPEN May beans: 7 lower May meal: 1.30 lower May soyoil: 64 lower May corn: 1/2 lower May wheat: 10 lower The marke...
European Market Analysis
Regional News A build-up of Russian military forces along part of the Russian/Ukrainian border is raising tensions between Kyiv and Moscow. So far, c...
Technical Views - Mostly Trading Lower
SPREADS July crush trades to 54,39c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.23%. July /Nov bean inverse weakens to 1.30 1/2c from 1.38 1/2c, while May/July tr...
AM Outlook - Sliding But Firm on Pullbacks
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly lower this morning as the soy complex sells off due to weaker soyoil prices, and profit-taking in oilshare. Wheat is...
WASDE Soyoil
U.S. soybean oil price outlook is projected at 45.0 cents per pound, up 4 cents. ...
WASDE Soymeal
U.S. soybean meal price outlook is unchanged at $400 per short ton...
WASDE Soybeans
U.S. soybean outlook is for higher exports, lower crush, residual use, and seed use. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 120 million bushels, unch...
WASDE Corn
U.S. corn outlook is for greater feed and residual use, increased corn used for ethanol production, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to p...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 mill...
Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks
The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutr...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
Problem Solved; Cost of Food Sovereignty
Problem Solved The UN hosts a Food Systems Summit later this year intended to promote progress on the organization’s sustainable development goals an...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Biden Appropriations Request for Agriculture
The Biden Administration Office of Management and Budget sent a partial budget plan to Capitol Hill this morning. The proposal is an outline of funding req...
Production Priority over Consumption
Americans consume more than the dietary guidelines recommend for meat and grains while under-consuming fruit and vegetables. Vegetable consumption has been...
PM Post - Corn Supported; Soy Holds
THE OPEN May beans: 1 lower May meal: 1.40 higher May soyoil: 35 lower May corna; 2 1/2 higher May wheat: 5 1/2 higher The ma...
Technical Views - Bull Flags, Ascending Triangles
SPREADS July crush trads to 60.25c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.23%. Spreads are slightly weaker for July/Nov inverse, trading down to 1.33 1/4c, w...
AM Outlook - Report Day!
GOOD MORNING, Report day! At 11:00 central time traders will see how the new carry-out levels and SA production estimates impact prices. Funds...
Market Commentary: Setting Up Surprise
Traders say they do not like surprises but they seem to be setting up for one tomorrow. There is a lot of room for disappointment when USDA releases its Ap...
Livestock Round Up: Feed Prices
Livestock cost of gain is an issue that seemingly is not going away and has heightened the interest in tomorrow’s WASDE report. At current carcass we...
Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy; Trade Bullying
Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy A session at the Washington International Trade Association today tried to unravel the meaning of the Biden Administration...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; WASDE Report Changes; India Complaint; India Vegoil Tariff Rates
U.S. Soybean Export Sales Shift to New Crop Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report further confirmed the ongoing shift in U.S. sales of soybeans from t...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.2875/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - Buying Ahead
THE OPEN May beans: 2 lower May meal: 1.20 lower May soyoil: 5 lower May corn: 6 3/4 higher May wheat: 7 3/4 higher The markets ope...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 82,000 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down 67 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the...
Technical Views - Grain Strength
SPREADS July crush trades up to 61.86c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.33%. Goldman Roll begins today. May/July bean inverse trades down to 5 1/...
AM Outlook - Grains Firmer; Oilseeds Weaker
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to slip into trading ranges in front of the April 9 WASDE report. Sharply lower soyoil futures were the key to so...
Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop; Grains Chop Sideways
Cattle and hog futures are lodged in massive bullish uptrends that seem to have no end in sight. All three major livestock contracts posted fresh contract...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.605/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Sees Modest Increase in Last Full Week of March The national average live hog price through the week ending 26 March rose slightly...
Sustainability Cliff; Same Old Policy; Online Food Sales
Sustainability Cliff Charlie Mitchell of the New Republic complains that U.S. agriculture’s viewpoint of how to meet sustainability goals is to not c...
Pandemic Not Fully Reflected
The Pew Research Center has attracted a lot of ink for its analysis of losses to middle income earners from the pandemic. Its data, derived from World Bank...
PM Post - Timing the Next Climb
THE OPEN May beans: 4 1/2 higher May meal: 1.00 higher May soyoil: 4 higher May corn: 2 3/4 higher May wheat: 1/4 lower Price...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 March-2 April 2021 Milling and feed wheat, feed corn, and barley prices remained unchanged or moved in different directions insig...
Technical Views - Within Ranges
SPREADS July crush trades to 59.29c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.80%. The July/Nov bean inverse trades to 1.40 3/4c from 1.46 3/4c, while May/July...
AM Outlook - Air of Caution
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to adjust into Friday's WASDE report, which is typically not a market maker. Prices are mostly firm this mor...
Market Commentary: CBOT Chops Sideways; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT started out strong but pulled back on quiet volumes and limited follow-through buying. Buyers are looking at early forecasts for ample grain and o...
Bipartisan USTR; Fisheries as Proxy; Indiscriminate Aid
Bipartisan USTR President Biden is said to be likely to name long-time aide Sarah Bianchi as Deputy USTR. Bianchi’s closest work in trade involved se...
Russia and Argentina: Fighter Jets, COVID Vaccines, and Beef
During the administrations of Presidents Marci and Trump, relations between the U.S. and Argentina started to improve. For example, the Trump Department of...
You Will Buy This
The Livestock Environmental Assessment and Performance Partnership (LEAP) claims that pro-environment “ecolabels” are more appealing to shopper...
PM Post - Corrections to Downside are Over
THE OPEN May beans: 15 higher May meal: 3.40 higher May soyoil: 1.08 pts higher May corn: 6 higher May wheat: 4 1/4 higher Th...
Technicals - Pre-Report Positioning
SPREADS July oilshare rises to 38.65% and crush trades up to 59c/bu. Spreads are firmer with July/Nov trading up to 1.44 1/2c from 1.36 1/2c, and May...
AM Outlook - Firmer Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices remain well bid overnight with higher oilshare again dominating price action and beans climbing over corn. Crush continues...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA After the problem with the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, the Egyptian government is said to b...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Supports Wheat, Pressures Corn; Hogs Post Bearish Reversal
April could be one of the most volatile months of trading for 2021. Last week’s reports certainly surprised the market and traders are once again bra...
Picking a Venue; Defund the CAP; NBT Protectionism
Picking a Venue There are real risks to the American economy from Mexico’s ban on GM corn for food and glyphosate. While most corn sold to Mexico is...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.5325/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.18/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
Infrastructure Plan: Ag Provisions and Politics
Last week, President Biden unveiled a major $2 trillion infrastructure package, the American Jobs Plan. From agriculture’s perspective, the plan is a...
Climate Change and Irrigation
According to a study in the journal Environmental Research Letters, the adverse impact from heat and drought over the past 50 years in Europe have tripled...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Last week was shortened by holidays but the FAS market moved higher once again. Exporters are present in the market and are bidding for different deli...
PM Post - Cautious Air
THE OPEN May beans: 13 1/4 higher May meal: 5.00 higher soyoil: 67 higher May corn: 1 higher May wheat: 5 higher Prices opene...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia calculated and published its official grain export duty rates on Monday. Effective 2 April 2021, the benchmark prices and tariff...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Technical Views - Generally Higher
SPREADS July crush trades to 67c/bu while oilshare trades at 38.0%. The Jly/Nov bean inverse weakens to 1.26 1/2c from 1.38c, while May/July tr...
AM Outlook - Post-Holiday Adjustments
GOOD MORNING, Prices were mostly higher overnight taking back losses from Thursday's holiday shortened session. Funds are still holding long position...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 2 April is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspect...
Market Commentary: Discriminating Capital
A lot of money won and lost after the reports were issued yesterday. The drive up in corn prices hammered feeder cattle and lean hog values. No new h...
Livestock Round Up: Bullish Hogs and Pork
Yesterday’s Planting Intentions and Grain Ending Stocks reports from USDA were market movers, but despite the effects of higher feed prices, there wa...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.5975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.11/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Miscellany Day; ESG Landmines; Drifting Lower
Miscellany Day The Biden Administration’s latest National Trade Estimates Report on barriers abroad kept opposition to Mexico’s glyphosate ph...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Prospective Plantings Report; China’s Soy Stocks
U.S. Soy Exports and Sales Continue to Decline Today’s USDA export sales report showed U.S. soy export sales and exports continued their seasonal dec...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 250,100 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 27 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.&...
No Technical Perspectives Today; Ag Perspectives will Publish as Usual
Technical Perspectives will resume on April 5...
Market Commentary: Surprise! Corn, Soybean Acres Below Expectations; CBOT Ends Limit-Up
USDA surprised the markets with planted acreage forecasts that were well below pre-report expectations. USDA pegged 2021 corn acres at just 91.1 million, u...
China In-Country Analysis
WPI’s weekly China In-Country analysis report is delayed. Thanks for your patience and understanding. If you have any questions or comments, please f...
Singing Constituency’s Chorus; Forest for the Trees
Singing Constituency’s Chorus USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack knows his constituency. He has reportedly called on the Congress to reauthorize Trade Promot...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.6425/bushel, up $0.25 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.18/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. ...
Taiwan – Tip of the Spear
It is unclear which of several geopolitical rifts (Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea, etc.) between China and the west is going to prove the tip...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 March 2021 Milling wheat, feed wheat and feed corn prices in all regions of Russia decreased moderately, while feed barley pri...
PM Post - Skepticism But Must Be Traded
THE OPEN May beans: 8 higher May meal: .30 higher May soyoil: 1.25 higher May corn: 3/4 lower May wheat: 2 lower The markets...
AM Outlook - Liquidation Yesterday, Reports Today
GOOD MORNING, The market's losses yesterday found many looking for an explanation. With fundamentals not changing much, would have to consider that t...
Technical Views - Firm on New Lows
SPREADS July crush firms back to 58c/bu while crush trades to 38.10%. July /Nov beans inverse trades from 1.70 1/4c up to 1.75 1/2c, while May/...
Market Commentary: Fund Selling Accelerates on Chart Breakdowns; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT saw widespread selling Tuesday with fund managers liquidating longs as the end of the month and quarter draw near. Tuesday’s trade once agai...
Face of Lobbying Changes; African Opportunity
Face of Lobbying Changes WTO members led by India and South Africa are pushing for a waiver from Intellectual Property (IP) protections for any goods...
RFS Waivers and RINs Prices
On 22 February, we noted that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear a challenge to the 10th District Court’s ruling on small refinery exemptions (SREs...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.0175/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close.&n...
Fewer Acres, More Stocks
Chicago underwent some serious adjustments ahead of tomorrow's market influencing USDA reports. Based on the accuracy of Reuters’ survey of analysts...
Ag Review - March 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue examines the oilseeds, produce and organic...
PM Post - Busting Through Support Lines
THE OPEN May beans: 9 lower May meal: .70 higher May soyoil: 80 lower May corn: 1 lower May wheat: 3 3/4 lower Prices opened...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA There hasn’t been this much news coverage of the Suez Canal since the crisis in 1956. H...
AM Outlook - Bottom of Ranges Ahead of Tomorrow
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to leak lower as more funds sell the market in front of the March 31 Stocks/Acreage report. With everyone in the...
Technical Views - Meal's Day
SPREADS July crush trades to 52c/bu while oilshare sits at 38.31%. Nov/Jul bean inverse continues to weaken, trading down to 1.75 1/2c from 1.82 1/4c...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mostly Lower Ahead of USDA Reports
The CBOT was mostly lower on Monday with a stronger U.S. dollar pressuring ag markets. Soyoil rallied with support from palm oil but soybeans and soymeal f...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.4675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.1675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.&n...
Camel’s Nose; Technology and Sustainability; Limits of Sanctions
Camel’s Nose USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack appeared to discount Mexico’s plan to ban glyphosate and GMO corn by saying it would not affect U.S. fe...
Views on USDA’s Carbon Bank
As we reported on 16 November, a transition memo for USDA was issued from Duke University’s Climate 21 Project proposing a CCC-run carbon bank. Rober...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After last week’s rains across Argentina, the corn crop’s moisture level was too high for harvest, slowing the weekly progress rate to jus...
ASF Loosens Import Restrictions
The Philippines may increase its pork imports under a reduced tariff by over 600 percent, from 54,210 MT to 404,210 MT to better meet demand and reduce pri...
PM Post - Soyoil Exception
THE OPEN May beans: 4 1/2 lower May meal: 4.50 lower May soyoil: 12 higher May corn: 5 1/2 lower May wheat: 1 1/4 lower Price...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the International Grains Council (IGC) pegged the 2020/21 world grain production forecast at 2,224 MMT, up 9 MMT from the pr...
AM Outlok - Positions Set for Wednesday
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed as we head into the Planting Intentions/March1 stocks on Wed at 11:00 central time. Meal struggles against soyoil futu...
Technical Views - Variable and Light
SPREADS July crush falls lower to 47.88c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.47% from values that were over 40%. July/Nov bean inverse is softer, closing...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Posts Limit-Losses; Wheat Bounces Like a Dead Cat; Hogs Rally Sharply Higher
Except for corn, the CBOT was mostly lower on Friday with the soyoil market plugging to limit-losses and pulling soybeans lower as well. Wheat futures cont...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.1325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. ...
USDA Releases Plan for Pandemic Assistance to Producers
USDA announced this week its plans for moving forward with COVID relief funds. On 27 January, the Biden USDA announced a freeze on processing and payment o...
Self-Punishment; Easy Solution; Back to the Flame
Self-Punishment China has made its punitive 200 percent tariff on Australian wines permanent for the next five years. The tariff is not import protection f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Not Eggactly Great
With the Christian holy day of Easter upon us and Easter egg hunts typically in order, one would expect a seasonal change in demand. Poultry eggs are consi...
PM Post - Lower Level Trades for Profit-taking
THE OPEN May beans: 1/2 lower May meal: 3.30 lower May soyoil: 30 higher May corn: 1/4 higher May wheat: 2 lower The markets opened...
WPI March 2021 Acreage and S&D Estimates
Updated 26 March: typo on page 5 corrected. The 2020/21 crop year has been nothing if not interesting and heavy on forecast revisions from every analytical...
Technical Views - Mixed Positioning
SPREADS July crush trades to 57.68c/bu while oilshare trades to 39.34%. July/Nov beans trades from 1.90c to 1.87 3/4c, while May/July trades from 11...
AM Outlook - Lots of Moving Parts
GOOD MORNING, Macro events continue to play out in the Ag space, as weaker crude impacts soyoil, which locked limit -down, plus more cases of coronavirus p...
Market Commentary: Big Crops Face Virus
There was selling in the overnight session but at low volume and the pace picked up today, at least for some commodities. Volume was higher getting out of...
Livestock Round Up: Bullish Hogs and Pigs; Regulatory Creep on Cattle Marketing Proposals
With the April live hog futures contract at $99.67/cwt and the June contract at $103/cwt, USDA released a bullish quarterly hogs and pigs report today with...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Argentina Soybeans; Booming Brazil Soy Exports; Canada Oilseeds
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report confirmed the downward trend in U.S. soybean export sales as Brazil ramps up its sales a...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.465/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.125/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.&...
Carbon War Uncertainties; Organic “Sales” Job
Carbon War Uncertainties USDA Climate Advisor Robert Bonnie is an enthusiastic cheerleader for agriculture both leading and benefiting from the effort to c...
PM Post - Sharper Sell-off
THE OPEN May beans: 11 3/4 lower May meal: 1.00 lower May soyoil: 82 lower May corn: 5 lower May wheat: 8 3/4 low The markets...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 343,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 12 percent from the previous week, but up 24 percent from the prior 4-week avera...
Technical Views - Downward
SPREADS July crush trades down to 60c/bu while oilshare sits at 40.19%. Spreads are a touch weaker today as funds book profits. July/Nov bean i...
AM Outlook - Defensive on Low Volume
GOOD MORNING, Prices were on the defensive overnight, as volumes remain light and new inputs quiet. Soyoil futures congest though finds pressure from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selling Resumes; Corn, Soybeans Chop Sideways; Oil Rallies on Stuck Ship
Agricultural markets were mixed on Wednesday with livestock futures posting another day of solid gains while corn and the soy complex were higher in lacklu...
Legacy Support; Implausible Sino-Russian Economics; Dual Quality, Not
Legacy Support There are about 15 staple crops from which most calories are derived, and yet public financial support is centered around a relatively small...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Live Hog Price Falls to Lowest Level Since Last May With China’s imports of frozen pork meat and offal up 25.2 percent to 900...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.5325/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.2475/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
China Woefully Short
According to an analysis by Bloomberg, China is far behind in making the product purchases from the U.S. that it promised in the Phase One agreement demand...
PM Post - Upside Soyoil, Downside Wheat
THE OPEN May beans: 4 higher Ma meal: 2.20 lower May soyoil: 31 lower May corn: 1/2 lower May wheat: 4 lower The markets open...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 March 2021 Wheat and feed corn prices in all regions of Russia decreased, while feed barley prices moved in different directio...
AM Outlook - Beans Lead Corn
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed overnight with grains weaker vs. firmer soy complex values. Soyoil tracks a lower Asian palm oil trade, as the market enters...
Technical Views - Beans/Meal Lead
SPREADS July crush trades 58c/bu while oilshare trades to 39.99%. Bean spreads are firmer with July/Nov trading from 1.85 3/4c to 1.92 1/2c. Ma...
Market Commentary: Vegoil Rally Continues; Wheat Finds Short Covering; Hogs Higher on Low Pork Stocks
The CBOT was higher on Tuesday with corn maintaining its range-bound trading pattern while soybeans and soymeal seemed to need to catch up with the soyoil...
March Cold Storage Report
U.S. red meat and poultry stocks continue to trend below year-ago levels, driven largely by significant decreases in pork stocks. Pork stocks remain except...
Tough Sino-West Balance; Japan Pickle
Tough Sino-West Balance Any hope of comity with China went out the window last week in Anchorage and into the sewer this week over sanctions related to tre...
The Far Reach of California Proposition 12
The Supreme Court will decide by early April whether it will hear a case challenging California’s Proposition 12 animal welfare law which prohibits t...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.5125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3475/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
King Oil
Maize is often called King Corn because of its dominance in planted production in the U.S. but the real king in terms of price has been vegetable oil. Pric...
PM Post - Sideways with Wheat Lower
THE OPEN May beans: 3/4 higher May meal: 1.80 higher May soyoil: 69 higher May corn: 1 higher May wheat: 3 1/2 lower Prices o...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Grain and feed ingredient importers in Turkey will find that import prices have increased con...
Technical Views - Beans Push for Acres
SPREADS July oilshare trades to 40.21% with crush at 64c/bu. July/Nov bean inverse trades to 1.92c, but closes at 1.86 1/4c. May/July bean inve...
AM Outlook - Weak Wheat; Soyoil Overbought
GOOD MORNING, The main feature in the night session was that of surging soyoil, supported by continuing higher prices in neighboring vegoils like palm and...