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AM Outlook - Prices Peaked?

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower after a disappointing USDA Feb. report that did not deliver the bullish information as expected given fund length.  As...

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: The soybean oil price forecast is raised 1.5 cents to 40.0 cents per pound...

WASDE Soymeal

SOYMEAL: The soybean meal price is forecast at $400.00 per short ton, up 10 dollars.  ...

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS: Soybean exports are projected at 2.25 billion bushels, up 20 million from last month reflecting record marketing-year exports through January and...

WASDE Corn

CORN: U.S. corn ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels from last month.  The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents...

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  supply and demand outlook for 2020/21 is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is raised $0.15 per bushel to $5.00. Projected 2020/...

WASDE Livestock

Today’s WASDE raised the projected estimate for red meat production by 0.9 percent over the January estimate and broiler production up just slightly...

USMCA Impacts

The U.S. – Mexico – Canada Agreement went into effect on 2 July 2020 and so it is too early to understand its impacts, but it continues to be p...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5625/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&...

PM Post - Watch the Close

THE OPEN March beans: 11 higher March meal:  3.10 higher March soyoil:  43 higher March corn:  1 3/4 higher March wheat:  5 lower The m...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Sri Lanka has decided to lease underutilized land to investors for one year in the expectatio...

Technical Views - Subject to Change

SPREADS May cush trades to 66c/bu while oilshare trades up to 34.18%.  Spreads are strong with July/Dec corn inverting to 93 1/2c from 90c, while May/...

AM Outlook - Firm into the Report

GOOD MORNING, The Feb. WASDE will be released at 11:00 central time.  Typically, it is not a trend changer, but given implied tighter carry-out number...

Sustainability Standards Setting; Addressing China

Sustainability Standards Setting There has been concern that addressing climate change and pursuing sustainability becomes a conduit for protectionism. Alr...

Ag Perspectives on Budget Reconciliation Bill

On 5 February, the Senate passed its budget resolution by a vote of 51 to 50, with Vice President Harris casting the tie breaking vote. The Budget resoluti...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.6375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.5575/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Climate Change Impacts

Agricultural trade is said to be the global movement of water, since crops generally move where water is plentiful to where it is less available. Since it...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomic Trends The Argentine economy is still not doing well. Poverty is increasing and there are multiple exchange rates with a 100 percent spread b...

PM Post - As Called

THE OPEN March beans: 8 higher March meal:  .80 higher March soyoil:  41 higher March corn:  4 higher March wheat:  8 3/4 higher Prices...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Cold temperatures are forecast for most of western and all of eastern Europe and Ukraine this week while southern Russia sees a slightl...

Technical Views - Upswing Day

SPREADS May crush trades to 65c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 34.18%.  Spreads firm back up with July/Dec corn trading to an 88 1/4c inverse high...

AM Outlook - Firmer Ahead of the Report

GOOD MORNING, Prices started the night session cautiously higher and have rallied further the last 15 minutes into the close on fund buying and better tech...

Disparate Diplomatic Policy

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) seeks to normalize relations with Cuba after the Trump Administration distanced itself from the...

Mexican Corn Gamble

U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico have been growing and there is a trade deficit; Mexico’s agricultural imports from the U.S. are stagnant at bes...

New Senate Agriculture Committee

There are five new members of the Senate Ag Committee. Given the 50/50 split in the Senate, there will be an even split on the Committee, 11 Democrats and...

WPI February 2021 S&D Estimates

The 2020/21 crop year has been nothing if not interesting and heavy on forecast revisions from every analytical firm. The presence of La Nina in the Pacifi...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.4125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nb...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

 The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity...

PM Post - Still Hanging Close to Highs

THE OPEN March beans:  5 higher Mach meal:  1.00 higher March sooil:  6 higher March corn:  3/4 lower March wheat:  6 higher Price...

AM Outlook - Defining Value Ranges

GOOD MORNING, The markets put in a fairly subdued trade in the PM session as we head into the February 9 WASDE next week.  Some feel that the USDA may...

Technical Views - Prices are Working

SPREADS May crush trades to 63c/bu while oilshare is 33.80%.  Spreads are steady with July/Dec corn inverse trading to 86 1/4c from 83c and May/July a...

Market Commentary: Chop Shop

The market was called mixed at the open, and it followed suit. There is rising open interest, some rising prices, but volume was unremarkable except in whe...

Livestock Roundup: Heavy Slaughter Weights

The January WASDE report lowered previous forecasts for 2021 beef production based on lower expected carcass weights. That report also projected lower weig...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.375/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...

Beating GI’s with EI’s; Hard to Beat Meat; Food Irony

Beating GI’s with EI’s Robert Bonnie is the new senior advisor for climate at USDA and his description of the agency’s approach to farmer...

PM Post - Split Decision with Profit-taking

THE OPEN March beans:  3 1/2 higher March meal:  .40 lower March soyoil:  23 higher March corn:  1 1/4 higher March wheat:  5 lowe...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 643,100 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 69 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average...

AM Outlook - Stabilizing

GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to trade in defined ranges, with an overwhelming nod to chart stabilization yesterday.   Corn trades to new co...

Technical Views - Strong Except Soft Wheat

SPREADS May crush trades 63.20c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.61% which seems to find some market stabilization.  Spreads are also firmer with July/D...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.52/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.4825/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  M...

Transatlantic Deal – Not; Listen to Utes; Wise Perceptions

Transatlantic Deal - Not The EU is making the ‘generous’ offer to drop its $4 billion trade retaliation against Boeing if the U.S. will drop it...

Historical Migration Economics

The FAO is set to release 2020 data on land clearing in Brazil but important to understanding the dynamic is its economics. University of Michigan economis...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Live Hog Supply Rises as New Year Holiday Approaches With the New Year’s celebrations set to kick-off a week from this Friday...

PM Post - Pre-Report Chop

THE OPEN March beans:  4 higher March meal:  2.50 higher March soyoil:  41 lower March corn:  1 3/4 lower March wheat:  9 lower Th...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 25-29 January 2021 Prices generally decreased in the Russian domestic grain market. This trend was expected as 15 February, the date...

Technical Views - Mixed on Haggling

SPREADS May crush falls to 63.46c/bu while oilshare falls to 33.58%.  Inverses are weaker with May/July corn trading to 10 1/4c from 11 1/2c, and July...

AM Outlook - Sideways on Lower Resistance

GOOD MORNING, Prices spent the opening hours in the red with soyoil futures leading the way in terms of market weakness.   Soyoil followed a shar...

Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates, Hogs Rally on Virus Concerns

The CBOT seemed to enter a consolidation/congestion phase on Tuesday as traders are looking forward to next week’s February WASDE. Many are looking f...

The Dairy Pickle

The largest U.S. dairy organization asked the Trump Administration to challenge Canada under the USMCA’s dispute settlement process for failing to ab...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.4475/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&...

Vilsack Drives a 2006 Ford Focus

USDA Secretary-designate Tom Vilsack was approved by the Senate Agriculture Committee today by a unanimous voice vote; his confirmation will soon move to t...

PM Post - Major Support at Range Lows

THE OPEN March beans:  22 lower March meal:  6.60 lower March soyoil:  60 lower March corn:  6 1/2 lower March wheat:  7 1/2 lower...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Cosco Shipping Ports bought a 40 percent inte...

AM Outlook - Headed Lower

GOOD MORNING, The markets started the evening session on a mixed note as they head into trading ranges off contract highs, but have all turned lower into t...

Technical Views - Sideways Lower

SPREADS May crush trades to 66.32c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.0%.   Spreads leak lower with July/Dec corn inverse trading down to 85 1/2c fro...

Johnny One Note Critics; Reduced Pressure on Big Ag

Johnny One Note Critics Populist food critic Mark Bittman is out with a new book, but it is filled with the same old dribble. This time he focuses heavily...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat January saw improvements in logistics and trucks arriving to upriver ports so the vessel lineup ended slightly above December at 1.5 MMT. South ports...

Electric Vehicles, Political Distrust and Ethanol Demand

Last week, General Motors announced that in an effort to lower its emissions its goal will be to produce 40 percent of its car and light duty vehicles as e...

India Substitutes Cess for Duty

The WTO just completed its trade policy review of India and it affirmed what is already known by that nation’s trading partners…India continue...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Generally favorable weather conditions persist across Europe with average precipitation for most of the continent. Last week’s te...

PM Post - Staying in the Lane

THE OPEN March beans: 10 lower March meal:  4.20 lower March soyoil:  25 lower March corn:  1 lower March wheat:  6 lower The markets o...

Technical Views - Corn Bulls

SPREADS May crush trades to 59c/bu while oilshare trades below 34.0% to 33.91%.  Corn inverses remain strong with March/May trading up to 14 1/4c, new...

AM Outlook - Mixed with Beans Defensive

GOOD MORNING, The markets are mixed this morning, though corn posted a new contract high during the night session.  Corn had an outside week, reversin...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.63/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close.  Mar...

Market Commentary: Record-Large Corn Sale to China Lifts CBOT to Contract Highs

The last trading day of January saw a continuation of the story that sparked the 2020/21 bull market: Chinese buying. News of a massive corn sale to China...

Freeze and Review of CFAP Funds

Yesterday the USDA announced that it has, suspended the processing and payments under the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program - Additional Assistance and h...

NBT = GMO; Gamestop Food System; Data is Food; Risky Question

NBT = GMO Some of the same political leaders that oppose GMO’s are saying that New Breeding Techniques (NBT’s) like CRISPR are not novel. They...

Global Surpluses and Deficits

Price is the most efficient signal to producers on whether to grow or reduce output of a commodity. However, price signals become distorted in agriculture...

PM Post - Wide Trading Ranges

THE OPEN March beans:  12 higher March meal:  .30 lower March soyoil; 63 higher March corn:  13 higher March wheat: 8 1/2 higher The markets...

Technical Views - Mostly Firm

SPREADS May crush trades to 63.11c/bu, while oilshare trades to 34.33%.   THe corn inverses post new contract highs with July/Dec at 93 3/4c and...

AM Outlook - Mixed on Profit-taking/Pricing

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed as we come to the month's end with profit-taking on one end and commercial pricing activity on breaks of size.  Oilshar...

Summary of Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 380,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 15 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.&nb...

Market Commentary: Huge Corn Buys

The market was called higher except for soymeal and that was the start to the day, but it only took a few minutes before it turned much more decidedly mixe...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.345/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.47/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. ...

Trade Agreement Planning; Sustainable Sustainability

Trade Agreement Planning The Biden Administration has made clear that it is not planning any immediate efforts on negotiating trade agreements but that doe...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Preview

USDA will release its Cattle Inventory report tomorrow. The total inventory of all cattle and calves as of 1 January 2020 was 94.4 million head, down a lit...

PM Post - King Corn Takes the Lead

THE OPEN March beans:  11 higher March meal:  2.40 higher March soyoil;  56 higher March corn:  14 higher March wheat:  2 higher T...

AM Outlook - Bulls in Control

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board except for wheat.  Bullish trends remain intact with corn and bean prices continuing to find support...

Technical Views - Sell Wheat, Buy Others

SPREADS March crush trades to 77.20c/bu while oilshare is 33.89%.  July/Dec corn trades to a new contract high at 89 1/2c with May/July at ctr highs o...

Inefficient Redistribution Policies; Overwhelming Complexity

Inefficient Redistribution Policies Researchers point out that governments use trade policies to redistribute income even though it is less efficient than...

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends China’s Ag Investment Lags, Slows Rural Development Goals As reported by the China rural economy blog, Dims Sums, the central government...

Canola Has Further to Climb

March canola oil closed at a new contract high today of $717.40/MT. IMF data shows global vegetable oil prices moving higher and canola oil likely still ha...

PM Post - Both Sides of Unchanged

THE OPEN March beans: 19 higher March meal:  5.90 higher March soyoil:  120 higher March corn:  11 higher March wheat:  4 3/4 higher Th...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets, 18-22 January 2021 The Russian domestic market prices followed the same pattern as the week before with little movement, increasing...

AM Outlook - Attractive Buying at the Bottom

GOOD MORNING, Calls are higher this morning with corn and soyoil posting new contract highs.  Funds continue to buy into what is very light farmer sel...

Technical Views - Announcements Fuel Higher Prices

SPREADS Spreads remain strong with July/Dec up to 86 1/4c with May/July at new contract highs at 8c.  March/May beans trades to 2c inverse from 3/4c,...

Market Commentary: Export Demand and Fund Buying Lifts CBOT

Export demand and a resurgence of fund buying sent CBOT corn, wheat, and soy complex futures sharply higher on Tuesday. The recent correction, whether driv...

Climate and Trade Winner; Price Loser

Incongruously, global sorghum production has fallen at the same time demand has sharply risen. Production is down in all the major producing countries, inc...

PM Post - Rebound

THE OPEN March beans:  22 higher March meal:  5.00 higher March soyoil:  87 higher March corn:  13 higher March wheat:  4 higher P...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Saudi Arabia’s Almarai Dairy has seen its last quarter of 2020 sales drop by 46 percent...

January Cold Storage Report

  The January Cold Storage report continues to reflect the impact of surprisingly strong domestic and export demand for pork while covid-19 related re...

AM Outlook - Higher from the Range Bottom

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to hammer out trading ranges heading into the end of the month, starting lower in the night session but reversing course to t...

Technical Views - Rebound

SPREADS March crush trades to 72c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.45%.   The corn inverses strengthened to new highs, with July/Dec trading up to...

Pork Demand Clears Out Freezers of Inventory

USDA released its monthly Cold Storage report today. Pork in cold storage as of 31 December was 408.361 MMT, 97 percent of November and 70 percent of Decem...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.115/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.485/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

Coproduct Gets Dissed

Global oilseed demand has been robust, growing by nearly a third over the past decade. Yet global cottonseed production has been flat to declining. By cont...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn planting is 94 percent completed across the expected 6.3 million hectares (Mha). Recent rains in the center and north of the co...

PM Post - Downside at End

THE OPEN March beans:  1/2 lower March meal:  .40 lower March soyoil:  4 higher March corn:  1/2 lower March wheat:  2 1/2 higher...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s weather remains warmer-than-normal for the next week. While no concerns currently exist for the crop (other than the imp...

AM Outlook - On the Defensive

GOOD MORNING, Prices are attempting to find overall trading range lows. Last week's round of liquidation hit the markets hard and most begin today still on...

Technical Views - Edging Lower

SPREADS March crush trades to 81c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.51%.   July/Dec corn inverse fallt to 65c but finds some stabilization here clos...

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed for the slaughter market in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.0 million head on January 1, 2021. The invento...

Export Sales

Wheat: Net sales of 329,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 49 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Cor...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.005/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.345/bushel, down $0.2625 from yesterday's close.&...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

  The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodit...

Market Commentary: CBOT Tumbles on Fund and Technical Selling

Trade was one-sided at the CBOT on Friday with aggressive selling the theme of the day. The markets opened on the defensive as expected, with funds lighten...

Cattle on Feed: Placements Higher than Expectations

USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today, conforming with pre-report expectations. The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head o...

Wait for the Experts; Cheap Gas

Wait for the Experts There is new leadership in Washington, and they are receiving appeals for reform of the U.S. food system. Most of the ideas are litera...

Challenge of Sustainability

The EU wants to reduce pesticide use by 50 percent and fertilizer applications by 20 percent. These are arbitrary metrics chosen by policymakers. To ensure...

PM Post - Seasonal Weakness Begins

THE OPEN March beans:  14 lower March meal:  3.00 lower March soyoil:  33 lower March corn:  4 1/2 lower March wheat:  14 lower Th...

AM Outlook - Night Trade Pressures, Morning Lows Hold

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower in the overnight session on yesterday's weaker close, weak macro markets, better rains in South America, more forecasts for...

Technical Views - Down and Dirty

SPREADS March crush trades to 77c/bu while oilshare trades at 33.13%.  The July/Dec corn inverse remains firm trading from 70c to 73 3/4c, while May/J...

Market Commentary: Lower Volume, Lower Changes

The bull market had a split decision today, with corn, soybeans and soyoil up but wheat taking its losses. USDA flash announcements of large old crop corn...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow – the first of the new year. Pre-report estimates from the industry put the total number...

Get What You Beget; Economic Weapons; Marketing Plan?

Get What You Beget It started with geographic indicators, then it moved on to country of origin labeling even for products made within the EU’s &ldqu...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.2425/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nb...

PM Post - Bends But No Breaks

THE OPEN March beans:  14 1/2 higher March meal:  3.00 higher March soyoil:  56 higher March corn:  7 1/4 higher March wheat:  2 h...

AM Outlook - Buyers Buoy Market

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to stabilize after this week's house-cleaning break, with more strength in the overnight session with talk that buyers were a...

Technical Views - Laddering the Range

SPREADS March crush trades to 68c/bu while oilshare bounces again to 32.60% from values that were at 31.0% on the lows.  May/July corn places a new co...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.6775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Fish and Livestock Jurisdiction; Sustainability Definition

Fish and Livestock Jurisdiction In one of its end of power moves, the Trump Administration orchestrated a Memorandum of Understanding that shifted regulato...

Disproportionate ASF Impacts

While China gets most of the attention on African Swine Fever just because of the volume of production adversely impacted, the Philippines has suffered a l...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China Sets Record For Pork Imports in 2020 The latest data release from the China Customs Bureau show that pork imports in December totaled 964,0...

PM Post - Recovery Trade Means Back to Sideways

THE OPEN March beans:  32 lower March meal:  11.100 lower March soyoil:  15 lower March corn;  11 lower March wheat:  13 lower The...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 January 2021 The Russian domestic market prices moved insignificantly, increasing mainly in the southern region, as the market...

Technical Views - All Lower

SPREADS March crush trades to 69.79c/bu while oilshare trades back up to 32.0%.   July /Nov bean spread is in capitulation with the inverse falli...

AM Outlook - Follow-through Selling

GOOD MORNING,  Prices ratchet lower again overnight led by beans.  An improving weather pattern is the main catalyst, but the lack of funds addin...

SEA High Road; China’s Mixed Story; Focus and Outlook

SEA High Road European activists have tarnished palm oil from Southeast Asia by saying it destroys rainforests and compelled some countries to ban its use...

2021 Sour Domestic Sugar Outlook

The MY 2020/21 outlook for sugar is for more domestic production and a reduction in imports, but with lower deliveries and increasing year-end stocks. Beet...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.26/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&n...

Next Pork Markets

Global pork exports have grown by 66 percent over the past decade, with China a major reason for the expansion. A major driver for China’s expanded i...

PM Post - Liquidation; Wheat Tops

THE OPEN March beans:  18 lower March meal:  5.80 lower March soyoil;  64 lower March corn:  1 lower March wheat:  7 higher Prices...

AM Outlook - Busy Start

GOOD MORNING, The night session featured a higher wheat market vs. lower markets elsewhere, supported by Matif corn and wheat that gapped into new highs ov...

Technical Views - Wheat Up, Rest Down

SPREADS March crush falls further to 62c/bu, while oilshare weakens to 30.98%.    July/Dec corn inverse falls to 67 1/2c from 75c, while March/Ma...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.755/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday

The CBOT/CME markets will be closed Monday, 18 January 2021 in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. WPI’s offices will be closed as well...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

PM Post - Profit-taking and Rain

THE OPEN March beans:  8 lower March meal:  3.90 lower March soyoil:  59 lower March corn: 3 lower March wheat:  11 higher The markets...

Meat Glut

The current concern by some about rising grain prices will soon be met by falling meat prices. China reportedly imported 9.91 MMT of meat in 2020, a 60 per...

Technical Views - Tightening Ranges

SPREADS March crush trades to 63c/bu while oilshare trades at 31.55%.  July/Dec corn is slightly weaker trading down to 71 1/4c from 77c.  March/...

AM Outlook - Mostly Trending Lower

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to rally led by the wheat market.  Russia plans to raise its wheat export tax to 50 euros/ton from March 1-June 30, from...

Market Commentary: Even Bears are Bulls

If a wolf can be in sheep’s clothing, could a bear be in a bull’s hide? Or a bull in a bear’s coat? Whether a bull or a bear, it is about...

Export Sales

Wheat: Net sales of 221,900 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.3425/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.7/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

Livestock Round Up: Starting a New Beef Year

January is typically slow for beef demand due to the post-holiday let down. Over the past month, the choice cutout has declined 4 percent since the first w...

Keeping Competition Domestic; Forest for the Trees

Keeping Competition Domestic Trade disputes of any kind tend to spill over into agriculture and so it is a good idea for aggies to pay attention to all of...

PM Post - Funds Keep the Rally Going

THE OPEN March beans:  3 higher March meal:  4.30 higher March soyoil;  58 lower March corn:  1 higher March wheat:  3 lower Price...

AM Outlook - Bears are Hunting

GOOD MORNING, The markets were extremely overbought with beans running out of gas to the upside yesterday.  The strong bullish reaction to the Jan. WA...

Technical Views - Hunting for Ranges

SPREADS March crush falls down to 63c/bu, while oilshare prices are lower again at 30.99%.   The July/Dec corn inverse remains very firm with a 7...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.245/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: CBOT Consolidates but Bullish Trends Persist

After yesterday’s bullish WASDE sparked massive rallies at the CBOT, ag markets calmed today and looked to be establishing new trading ranges. As WPI...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Returns, Prices Up 1.2 Percent Year-On-Year After declining on an annual basis by 2 percent in November, food prices rose on...

Export Embargo Losers

Russia is said to be imposing restrictions on the export of wheat, corn, and barley from mid-February onward. The move follows restrictions on soybean expo...

Blaming Trade for Social Failures

U.S. Trade Representative-Designee Katherine Tai and House Democrats are articulating trade policy under the new government, but it is filled with vagues a...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1-8 January 2021 The Russian domestic market prices moved insignificantly because most of the regions in Russia were on holiday duri...

Technical Views - Active Trade Day

SPREADS March crush trades to 75.34c/bu while oilshare trades down to monthly lows at 31.47%.  The corn inverse post report remains strong with new hi...

AM Outlook - And The Beat Goes On

GOOD MORNING,  The digestion of the Jan. WASDE report continues. The report was bullish so markets continue in rationing mode.  The markets close...

Green Path Forward; River Boat Tom; Toppling the Dollar

Green Path Forward Donald Trump tried to use tariffs to leverage trade concessions he selfishly wanted for the U.S. The tool for leveraging trade negotiati...

WASDE Livestock

The meat and livestock projections in today’s WASDE were not as full of fireworks as the grain projections. Compared to last month’s projection...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $5.1725/bushel, up $0.25 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.65/bushel, up $0.3025 from yesterday's close. ...

WASDE Soyoil

 The soybean oil price is forecast at 38.5 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA’s forecast for soybean crush is raised 5 million bushels to 2.2 billion, reflecting improved prospects for soybean meal exports with a lower exp...

WASDE Soybeans

U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million.  The U.S. soybean export forecast is raised 30 million to a record 2.2...

WASDE Corn

USDA forecast decreased ending stocks for U.S. corn.  U.S. corn production is estimated at 14.182 billion bushels was reduced by 324 million because o...

WASDE Wheat

USDA forecast higher domestic wheat use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks.  Feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels to 125 millio...

Exporting Carbon

A survey by the European Central Bank found that 66 percent of Europeans say they already eat less meat in order to flight climate change, and another 13 p...

PM Post - Own Pullbacks and Cover Shorts

THE OPEN March beans:  7 higher March meal:  3.50  higher March soyoil:  44 lower March corn:  2 higher March wheat:  12 high...

AM Outlook - All One Side Spells Trouble

GOOD MORNING, Prices started the night lower, but head into the close higher into today's important WASDE report, one that could determine trend over the n...

Technical Views - All But Oil Bulls into the Report

SPREADS March crush trades up to 74c/bu while oilshare trades down to 31.98%.  July /Dec corn inverse trades from recent lows of 48 1/2c up to 51c, wi...

Market Commentary: End-User Pricing Stalls Fund Selling Ahead of WASDE

Friday’s weakness heading into the close created selling mentality in Monday’s CBOT trade that was combined with substantial position evening a...

Reconciling the Biden Agenda

Now that both houses of Congress are controlled by the Democrats (albeit by very small margins) the legislative committees will be chaired by Democrat lawm...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.9225/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.3475/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Veg Oil Leads Spike

The UN FAO reports that global agricultural commodity prices rose 3.1 percent in 2020. Though overall commodity prices are still below 2012 levels, vegetab...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU-UK Brexit trade deal is seen as a positive development for UK grain markets. The lack of tariffs and quotas means export/imports...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest is nearly finished with 99 percent of the area harvested to date. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased its produ...

PM Post - Position Evening and Selling

THE OPEN March beans: 3 higher March meal:  3.00 higher March soyoil:  40 lower March corn:  1/4 lower March wheat:  5 3/4 higher March...

AM Outlook - Soyoil to Lag

GOOD MORNING, Bean and meal prices traded to new contract highs this morning, with oilshare slightly lower.  US beans and meal follow new contract hig...

Technical Views - Interesting Wheat Situation

SPREADS March crush falls to 68c/bu while oilshare falls to 32.77%.   Corn spreads remain firm in front of the report, with July/Dec trading to 5...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&n...

Democrats’ Ag Agenda; Ending Food Trade

Democrats’ Agriculture Agenda With the Democratic wins in Georgia, Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow is poised to retake control of the upper body&rsq...

Animal Protein Dynamics

Despite bird flu, global consumption of chicken is growing four times faster than beef or pork. However, the price per unit for chicken is rising faster th...

PM Post - Buy Bean/Sell Wheat

THE OPEN March beans:  15 higher March meal:  4.30 higher March soyoil:  22 higher March corn:  2 1/2 higher March wheat:  1 1/2 h...

Technical Views - Crude, Canola, Palm

SPREADS March crush falls again to 72c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.60%.   Corn spreads remain in its congestive phase with July/Dec trading fr...

AM Outlook - Proper Corrections Made

GOOD MORNING, The markets are firmer this morning as funds remain long and some of the proper corrections have been made.  Global grain markets are hi...

Market Commentary: A Break, A Breather, Not Much

A breather, a correction, a pause, a break, a pullback, a retreat, an adjustment, a weakening, profit-taking, overbought, congesting, digesting…anal...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.94/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nb...

TRQ Obvious; Invoking 25th Worst for Dems

TRQ Obvious USDA’s Economic Research Service has completed another excellent analysis, this time on the impact of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on trade...

PM Post - Weakness Could Be Temporary

THE OPEN March beans:  18 lower March meal:  450 lower March soyoil:  45lower March corn:  6 1/4 lower March wheat:  7 lower The s...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 275,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 47 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  ...

AM Outlook - Detaching from Fundamentals

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trade into new contract highs this week as new fund inflows continue.  Prices may be detaching from fundamentals due...

Tecnical Views - Digesting Gains

SPREADS  March crush trades to 84.89c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.27%.  Corn spreads are slightly weaker with July/Dec trading down to 48 1/4c...

Veep with a Real Job

The Vice President of the United State of America sounds like a powerful position, except even those that have held the job have derided it. John Adams was...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.95/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.475/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Live Hog Price Jumps by 4.5 Percent In the last week of December, the national average live hog price turned on the afterburner jet...

Inflating Inflation Concerns

The Democrats controlling the whole of U.S. government has boosted the chances of more fiscal stimulus, but also reflationary concerns. According to Hill-H...

PM Post - Wheat Dragging it All Down

THE OPEN March beans:  19 higher March meal:  6.80 higher March soyoil:  63 higher March corn:  3 higher  March wheat:  3 1/4...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets There is no Russian Grain Market report today due to the Russian holidays. Ukraine: Grain Export Update  According to the Custom...

AM Outlook - Weeding Out Weaker Longs

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue higher as funds buy the market and influence beans, corn, meal, and soyoil into new contract highs.  Funds were buyers y...

Technical Views - Testing New Highs

SPREADS March crush bounces back to trade to 87.11c/bu with oilshare at 33.51%.  July/Dec corn trades to a new inverse high at 58 1/4c with a low of 5...

Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Post New Highs; Corn Struggles at $5.00

The CBOT bull market lives on with fresh news and more than enough speculative money to fuel the rally. WPI notes that managed money funds are increasingly...

Food Box Program and Milk Prices Are Back

Yesterday, USDA announced another round of the Food Box Distribution Program purchases with the $1.5 billion provided by the COVID relief provisions in the...

Deglobalization; Outlook and Priorities; Post-Trump Risks

Deglobalization There are plenty of average people cheering the deglobalization started by Donald Trump, and now leaders elsewhere are mimicking his style...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.9175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.54/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

More than Double Return

Double-cropping farmers in Mato Grosso have more than double the incentive to get their soybeans harvested now. The minority that gambled and seeded their...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

PM Post - Bull Getting Fed Daily

THE OPEN March beans:  24 higher March meal:  4.10 higher March soyoil:  76 higher March corn:  3 1/2 higher March wheat:  12 high...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Egypt reports that the revenues from the Suez Canal are down by about 3 percent in 2020 to $5...

AM Outlook - Bull Markets Take Occasional Breaks

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher with Chicago wheat posting new contract highs, while other markets are entering into a good bounce as well.  There wer...

Technical Views - Resume Higher

SPREADS March crush drops to 78c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.29%.  Spreads which were stronger remain in congestive mode.  The July/Dec corn i...

Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Products Reverse; Cattle Collapse

The CBOT rallied sharply overnight with corn and soybeans posting new contract highs. March corn traded to just under $5.00/bushel while soybeans neared $1...

117th Congress Convened

On Sunday, the U.S. House of Representatives convened the 117th Congress and narrowly re-elected Representative Nancy Pelosi (D-California) as Speaker amid...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.8375/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.42/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Bull Market Psychology

The bull market in Chicago continues with no end in sight. Each day that affirms excessively dry weather in South America coupled with signals of strong Ch...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn The Argentine government surprised the world last week by announcing a suspension of new corn export sales through 1 March, the end of the old crop ma...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The biggest news in the European markets over the past two weeks was the EU-UK free trade deal. The deal means that trade of most commo...

PM Post - Record Long but Profit-Taking

THE OPEN March beans:  29 higher March meal:  6.50 higher March soyoil:  109 pts higher March corn:  7 3/4 higher March wheat:  5...

AM Outlook - All Overbought

GOOD MORNING, It's a new year as fund buying activity propels prices to new contract highs on continuing concerns over South American production levels.&nb...

Technical Views - Major Trend is Higher

SPREADS March crush falls to 92.93c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.14%.  Corn spreads are part of the bull market price action, with July/Dec trading...

Happy New Year from WPI

The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forw...

Market Commentary: Out with a Bang

It was no surprise given the dynamics but the last day of the year trading session was unusual for its volume (especially in corn) and its overall bullishn...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.405/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. ...

The Fantastic Year Ahead

Prognosticators are signaling a lot of consensus around some key issues going into the new year. When everyone agrees, the usual advice is to run for shelt...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 520,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 32 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.&nbs...

Market Commentary: The Bull Roars On

After opening lower for everything except HRS and lean hogs on news of a settlement in the Argentine port/crush workers strike, all major row crop contract...

Worst of 2021

There is easy agreement that COVID-19 was the worst thing about 2020, and it hopefully goes away soon. But many of the other topics we discussed and analyz...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 December 2020 Russian domestic market wheat prices continued to decrease but at a slower rate than last week. Producers haven&...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Public Data Reflect Scale of Investment in Hog Sector In 2020 Based on recent public records from China’s securities exchanges and other so...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.4075/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Rationing Continues

THE OPEN March beans:  5 1/2 lower March meal:  4.60 lower March soyoil:  38 lower March corn:  1/2 lower March wheat:  1 1/2 high...

Cow/Calf Producers Finish Volatile 2020 in the Red

2020 was a year of unprecedented volatility in ag markets and life in general, and the cow/calf sector did not escape this pattern. Rising feed costs throu...

Ag Review - December 2020

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at global food supplies, the directio...

Technical Views - Mostly Down

SPREADS March crush trades down to 91.64c/bu while oilshare trades down to 32.94% from values over 33.0%.  The July/Dec corn spread inverted to 33 3/4...

AM Outlook - Lower But Well Bid

GOOD MORNING, Ags are generally lower to begin the session, with the soy complex showing more weakness than grains.  The strike was settled in Argenti...

Market Commentary: Soybeans Hit Six-Year High; Corn Targets Resistance at $5.22

The CBOT traded sharply higher with corn, soybeans, soyoil, and soymeal all posting fresh contract highs. Soybeans traded to gains of nearly 40 cents, buoy...

WASDE Expectations

USDA will issue its next WASDE report on 12 January and many in the trade expect its final numbers for corn and soybeans for the current marketing year to...

Decarbonization Plans; Moral Relativism

Decarbonization Plans The incoming Biden Administration promises aggressive action to address climate change, which has the rapt attention of U.S. agricult...

Summary of Futures

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.66/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Mar 21 Wheat closed at $6.185/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Tough to Keep Good Markets Down

THE OPEN March beans:  2 1/2 lower March meal:  2.20 lower March soyoil:  17 lower March corn:  1/4 lower March wheat:  1 higher T...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Reports in Nigeria say that the backlog for vessel discharge can be as long as one month and...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Technical Views - Lower But Could Switch

SPREADS March crush trades down to 98c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.27%.   The July/Dec corn inverse moves into new highs at 29 1/2c from 28 1/...

AM Outlook - Technicals Must Match Fundamentals

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly lower coming into today's session, though corn begins very close to its contract highs.  The markets were mostly overb...

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