There are an increasing number of reports citing the potential for the recent jump in commodities prices to be more than just a short-term dynamic. Masayuk...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5975/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Volatility Ahead of Reports
THE OPEN August beans: 3 lower, Nov beans 8 lower August meal: 2.50 lower August soyoil: 17 lower Sep corn: 6 lower, Dec corn 7 low...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee has approved the importation of 3 MMT of whe...
AM Outlook - Mixed Continues
GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight were mixed as soyoil prices returned to weakness taking beans along for the ride. Grains are mixed led by wheat to the...
Technical Vies - Breaks and Buys
SPREADS August crush trades to 90.84/cub while oilshare firms to 44.18% from values starting this week at 43.35%. Inverses are firmer with August /No...
Market Commentary: Bull Spreading Erases Early Weakness; Hogs Crash Heading into June Report
Welcome to summer 2021! For weeks now, the CBOT has been trading as if it were summer and weather the paramount factor, but yesterday marked the true offic...
Waiting on the RVOs, EIA Forecast on Ethanol Blending
The market is still awaiting the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS. Rumors hit the market last week that the proposal was forthcomin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire; Carbon Manipulation; Hard to Kill
Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire The most impactful part of last week’s G7 communique was not the blah, blah, blah about saving the world from the pandemic...
Backwards on TFP
While activists to Ukraine’s east decry Big Ag and romanticize about the superiority of small, inefficient farms, Kiev’s new law will enable th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5925/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.615/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia is expected to ship 28,000 MT of wheat to Algeria this month, the first shipment of wheat since December 2016. Russia has been l...
PM Post - Bull Spreading and Short-Covering
THE OPEN Nov beans: 32 lower Dec meal: 5.50 lower Dec soyoil: 140 pts lower Dec corn: 21 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 14 1/2 lower Prices o...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Dry weather is helping reduce moisture in the corn crop and the harvest pace is slowly increasing. Last week, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported...
AM Outlook - Bulls Dampened
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower as a good amount of rain fell across portions of the Midwest recharging soil moisture. The June 30 Stocks/Acreage repo...
Technical Views - Down the Range
SPREADS August crush trades to 92c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.03%. July/Nov bean inverse trades from 83 3/4c to 93 3/4c. Sep/Dec meal trade...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5525/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6275/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: China, Bargain Buying Fuel CBOT Rally; Technical Selloff Was Overdone
Yesterday’s CBOT selloff was overdone, and traders went to work Friday to correct that error. WPI remains bullish CBOT commodities, especially after...
Communist Entrepreneurs; Catastrophes; Post-Pandemic Offices
Communist Entrepreneurs In capitalist societies, parents that are entrepreneurs tend to have children that also become entrepreneurs. Researchers in the U...
Plotting Dots to Fight Inflation
On 30 April , we reported about inflation, massive government spending, and the reopening economy. As we wrote: Alleviating supply chain bottlene...
Venezuelan “Opportunity”
Venezuelan strongman leader Nicolas Maduro told Bloomberg that he wants U.S. President Joe Biden to end the sanctions imposed by Donald Trump and to allow...
PM Post - Back Toward Higher Ranges
THE OPEN July beans: 55 higher July meal: 6.30 higher July soyoil: 130 pts higher July corn: 12 higher July wheat: 9 1/2 higher The marke...
Technical Views - Regaining Lost Ground
SPREADS August crush trades to 84c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.62%. Jul/Nov bean inverse trades from 1.04 1/2c down to 75 3/4c. Sep/De...
AM Outlook - Post the Sell-Off
GOOD MORNING, The markets are higher after prices reached new monthly lows on a combination of pricing, short-covering, and new buying activity. Comm...
Market Commentary: Burning Down the House
There was red all over the board today with corn, soyoil, canola, and lean hogs all down the limit, and soybeans down close to the limit. It was downright...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Slaughter and Prices Still Up this Week
Cattle slaughter was 665,000 head last week, much closer to where it needs to be to move through the supply of cattle. As of today, week-to-date, slaughter...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.33/bushel, down $0.4 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.39/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 287,100 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022. Increases primarily for Japan (95,100 MT,...
Communist S&D
During the late 1990’s and through the early 2000’s, Beijing consulted with a lot of western economists who guided the nation’s emergence...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; India Soybeans; Brazil and Argentine Soymeal; Weather
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS weekly export sales report continued to show low U.S. soy export sales and also a slowing down of export...
PM Post - On the Defensive
THE OPEN July beans: 35 lower July meal: 2.30 lower July soyoil: 359 pts lower July corn: 19 lower July wheat: 8 3/4 lower Pr...
Technical Views - Pushing Lower
SPREADS August crush trades 85c/bu while oilshare trades lower to 43.31%. Bean spreads are firmer with July/Nov trading to 1.12 1/2c from 1.05c...
AM Outlook - Buffeted by Rumors and Stories
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower again on technical considerations as beans trend lower following a still weaker soyoil market. Funds were sellers of 1...
Market Commentary: Corn Refuses to Fall; Soybeans Refuse to Rally
Weather forecasts and changes thereto continue to drive the CBOT. Markets were initially weaker on overnight results from the GFS model that favored better...
Biofools Bull; Central American Band-Aid; Getting to Salazar
Biofools Bull Market economists hate government policy intrusions and the requirement to blend biofuels ranks among the most egregious but there is curiosi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.73/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Falling Pig Prices Push Government to Consider Interventions The national average live pig price fell below RMB 15/kg ($2.35/kg) or RMB 6.80/lb...
PM Post - As Called, July Corn Supported
THE OPEN July beans: 1 lower July meal: 3.00 higher July soyoil: 99 lower July corn: 7 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 3 3/4 higher The markets own...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 June 2021 Russian domestic grain markets have heard the first trumpets of the new crop approach. However, bearish sentiments ar...
Some Lower, Some Higher
SPREADS August crush trades to 94c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.38%. Jul/Nov bean inverse trades from 89c from 1.03c, while Sep/Dec meal carry trad...
AM Outlook - Shorts, End-Users Lock in Profits
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed today with beans into new lows and soyoil weak, but grain prices firming. Shorts and end-users are attempting to...
Market Commentary: Cattle Rally While Hogs, CBOT Fall
The CBOT opened higher in an attempt to stabilize after succumbing to pressure from negative political news, technical weakness, and improving weather/supp...
RFS To Do List: Reduced RVO Coming?
On Friday we reported on the lobbying effort by merchant refiners – and more specifically their labor unions – to get a waiver from the RFS. Bu...
Transatlantic Agreements – Good and Bad
U.S. President Joe Biden has been busy in Europe this past week and the results are a mixed bag of tricks. Boeing-Airbus Dispute: The two sides will withdr...
Popular India Soy and Maize
The U.S. has complained that India has underreported to the WTO on its wheat and rice subsidies, which involve the largest crops receiving support. However...
PM Post - Firmness on Inverses
THE OPEN July beans: 2 higher July meal: 2.20 lower July soyoil: 50 higher July corn: 9 lower July wheat: 21 lower The markets open...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA According to recent reports, India will export about 400,000 MT of corn in June and July with...
Technical Views - All over the Board
SPREADS August oilshare is firmer again trading up to 46.29%. Crush trades to 97c/bu. Bull-spreads are firmer this morning. Nov/July bean...
AM Outlook - Testing Support
GOOD MORNING, Prices are attempting to stabilize after funds sold a decent amount of corn, beans, and soyoil on better chances for rainfall, negative polit...
Market Commentary: Vegoil Weakness Pressures Soy Complex; More Rain in Midwest Forecast
Friday’s market weakness carried over into Sunday night’s trade and that of Monday’s day session. Nearly every grain/oilseed market broke...
Supply Chain Situation; G7 Dreams; Job Killer
Supply Chain Situation; G7 Dreams; Job Killer Last week the Biden Administration issued partial results from analysis of critical supply chains under Presi...
Farmers’ Outlook on Land Values, Investments and Taxes
According to the May edition of the Purdue University Ag Barometer, farmers see farmland values remaining high and are likely to scale back on planned equi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5925/bushel, down $0.2525 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.745/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close...
India’s Soy Outpaces
The head of India’s soybean processing trade association said that the nation’s soybean harvest area will expand by 10 percent this year. India...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3.7 percent last week, a slow pace that is keeping overall progress well below prior years. The speed has not...
PM Post - Not as Long as Before
THE OPEN July beans: 46 lower July meal: 9.50 lower July soyoil: 340 lower July corn: 26 lower July wheat: 21 lower Prices op...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s weather is trending warm and dry for the next two weeks but that is only likely to aid crop development after a cool sta...
AM Outlook - Weight on the Market
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened lower and continued the sell-off driven by soyoil's sharply lower price action, as talk circulates that the Biden administratio...
Technical Views - Lower Range
SPREADS August crush trades to 78c/bu while oilshare trades down to 45.23%. Spreads are firmer with the July /Nov bean inverse trading up to 83 3/4c...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Collapses on Global Vegoil Weakness; Dakota Rains Again Pressure Grains
Weaker technical conditions, limit-down soyoil, and more rains for the Dakotas conspired to push the CBOT sharply lower on Friday. Thursday’s WASDE s...
RINs and Repeat of RFS Waivers
When it comes to biofuels policy and the White House, it is the same song but in a different key. The Biden White House is caught between two political bas...
Hot Red Meat; Farming Profession
Hot Red Meat As American and European leaders are meeting there is yet another key transatlantic difference, but it needs no negotiation and that is meat...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.845/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.&nb...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
PM Post - Back and Forth
THE OPEN July beans: 10 lower July meal: 1.10 lower July soyoil: 230 pts lower Julu corn: 9 lower July wheat: 7 1/2 low...
AM Outlook - Report Reverberates
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the night on a steady note but this morning will open lower. Sharply lower soyoil futures are pressuring beans, and pric...
Technical Views - Retracement
SPREADS August crush trades to 79c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.43%. Today is the last day of the Goldman Roll as July futures wind down. Jul...
WASDE Soyoil
Soybean oil exports for 2020/21 are reduced 400 million pounds to 1.9 billion as high U.S. prices reduce competitiveness in the world market. Conversely, d...
WASDE Soymeal
U.S. soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels because of a lower forecast domestic meal disappearance and higher soybean meal imports. ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. corn is for a modest reduction in beginning stocks because of ethanol and export demand. The forecast season-av...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the new 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop is for higher production. All wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month...
Export Sales
Wheat: Note – First week of the New Crop year: Hence, Net sales of 325,900 MT for the 2021/2022 marketing year, which began June 1, were primar...
Market Commentary: That Was Fun
The markets started the day bullishly for corn and soybeans but with losses in wheat. Post the USDA WASDE report things changed. Larger soybean stocks flip...
Livestock Round Up: Labor and Cattle Markets
JBS is back in the news this week as the company made two announcements; first, that it would be adding 300,000 head of capacity at its Omaha and Grand Isl...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.99/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Transatlantic Reconciliation; Leash-less Dogs
Transatlantic Reconciliation The U.S. – EU consultations this week surrounding the China-focused G-7 meeting likely has the politicians ahead of some...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy and WASDE; U.S. Soy Export Sales; French Rapeseed Crop
Relatively Few Significant Changes for Soy in USDA WASDE Report Some expected the June monthly WASDE update released today to make substantial changes to t...
PM Post - Bean Bulls Must Focus on Bottom Line
THE OPEN July beans: 7 higher July meal: .70 higher July soyoil; 37 higher July corm: 6 higher July wheat: 7 lower The market...
AM Outlook - Weakness Gets Purchased
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed featuring higher soy and corn, lower wheat. Could it be a foreshadowing of themes to come for the day? The...
Technical Views - Recovery Trade
SPREADS August crush trades to 87c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.0%. The July/Nov bean inverse falls to new lows of 1.12 1/2c from 1.15...
Market Commentary: Spring Wheat Falls on Dakota Rains; Exports Support Corn
The CBOT was primarily focused on the ongoing index fund roll and positioning for tomorrow’s WASDE. Prices opened lower and traded that direction unt...
Bipartisan Enemy; Unifying the West; Actions and Solutions
Bipartisan Enemy U.S. Congressional Democrats and Republicans cannot agree on an infrastructure investment package but when it comes to competing with Chin...
Hunger Saves the Earth
The UN’s Global Goals for Sustainable Development are largely being written by NGO’s from rich countries, which is making some of the world&rsq...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Inflation Up in May, First Time Since January With live hog and retail pork prices nosediving, food inflation remained in negativ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 May-4 June 2021 The Russian domestic grain market showed chaotic movement due to many factors both domestic and export oriented...
PM Post - Position Leveling
THE OPEN July beans: 8 lower July meal: 2.50 lower July soyoil: 54 lower July corn: 3 lower July wheat: 10 1/4 lower Prices opened...
AM Outlook - Positioning Ahead of the Report
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened a touch softer as positioning in front of Thursday's report takes place and the spreads continue to bounce around as Day 3 of t...
Technical Views - Drop
SPREADS August crush trades up to 84c/bu while oilshare prices trades to 46.89%. Spreads are firmer with Jul/Nov bean inverse strengthening up to 1.28 1/4c...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms in Consolidative, Pre-WASDE Trade
Monday evening’s crop conditions supported CBOT trade on Tuesday, and the market opened higher overnight and added gains from there. Wheat was an ear...
Dangerous Jobs; Scale Confusion; Geopolitical Pushback
Dangerous Jobs French President Emmanuel Macron was reportedly slapped in the face by a disgruntled citizen near the city of Valence. That makes the job of...
Policy Potpourri: Resiliency, Climate and Cyber Security
Food Chain Resiliency and Meat Industry. USDA announced today that it would spend $4 billion to “strengthen critical supply chains” and in the...
Flour History
U.S. flour exports were down slightly for the first quarter of the year, but that is generally par for the industry. Turkey produces one-third the volume o...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.8/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.85/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul...
PM Post - Higher; Roll Affects Volume
THE OPEN July beans: 9 higher July meal: 2.00 higher July soyoil: 94 higher July corn: 1 higher July wheat: 5 3/4 highe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Tunisia’s government expects the grain crop this year will be 1.07 MMT of durum wheat,...
Technical Views - Good Support
SPREADS August crush trades to 81c/bu while oilshare trades at 46.76%. July/Nov bean spreads firms off lows of 1.17 1/4c, with an inverse high at 1.2...
AM Outlook - Quality and Weather Support
GOOD MORNING, Trade opens into positive territory to start the PM session, with conditions poorer than expected and hot and dry forecasts continuing in are...
Market Commentary: Index Roll Hammers Old Crop Futures; Cattle Fall while Hogs Post New Highs
The CBOT gapped higher at Sunday night’s open after a weekend of hot, dry weather and reductions in the Brazilian corn crop. December corn opened abo...
Short OJ Break
Reports indicated that the global pandemic caused a resurgence in the consumption of orange juice under the belief that its high vitamin C content strength...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.7925/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Quandary Agriculture Policy
Background: EU politicians are challenged finding compromises on CAP reform that concurrently meet the objectives of the Farm to Fork and Green Deal. There...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is moving faster now that the soybean harvest is nearing its end. Over the past two weeks, farmers harvested 7 percent...
PM Post - Breaks But Well Supported
THE OPEN July beans: 24 higher July meal: 4.50 higher July soyoil: 120 pts higher July corn: 14 higher July wheat: 6 higher The mar...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s weather is trending pleasantly warmer after a cool start to the growing season. Temperatures will be above normal for mo...
Technical Views - Up and Up
SPREADS August crush trades to 86.98c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.44%. The official index roll begins today and spreads are weaker. Ju...
AM Outlook - Factors Playing
GOOD MORNING, The markets are higher across the board, with soyoil futures into new ctr highs. Hot and dry weather forecasts verify, sending prices s...
Market Commentary: Hot Weather Leads to Hot Markets
The CBOT finished the week on a high note with funds and speculative traders buying heading into a weekend that is forecast to be hot and dry for the U.S...
Ag Market Perspective on May Jobs Report
The May jobs data came out; there was an increase in private payrolls of 559,000 jobs. At any other time, other than post COVID era, that would be bullish...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.2075 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.8775/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Line Speed Hogwash; Switching Capitalist Shoes; Farm Economy
Line Speed Hogwash The United Food and Commercial Workers Union achieved their goal of obtaining the Biden Administration’s support for a federal dis...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales reductions of 33,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. C...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
PM Post - Heated Markets
THE OPEN July beans: 21 higher July meal: 3.40 higher July soyoil: 120 pts higher July corn: 13 1/2 higher July wheat: 8 1/2...
Technical Views - Uptracing
SPREADS August crush trades to 78c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.60%. July/Nov bean inverse drops to 1.43c from 1.49 1/4c, and from highs that were...
AM Outlook - Weather Induced Choppiness
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the PM session in the plus column after breaking down from a higher start yesterday. Each different weather predic...
Market Commentary: Check Swing
Excellent early crop ratings but excessive dryness, then a chance of showers that may or may not occur – the one certainty is uncertainty and today&r...
Livestock Round Up: Meat Packing Recovery Underway
The cyber attack on JBS sent a shock through the markets, but JBS was already re-opening plants on Wednesday. Today’s estimated slaughter was back up...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.62/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.7625/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Punish the People; Chump Trade Policy; Careful with Farmers
Punish the People Like consumers elsewhere in the world, Indians are now paying about double for vegetable oil what they paid a year ago. This is a bargain...
Oilseed Highlights: India Vegoil Tariffs; Argentine Beef and Soy; Brazil Land; China Soy Stocks
India Considering Proposal to Lower Vegoil Import Tariff Rates The government of India yesterday indicated it is considering reducing tariff rates for impo...
PM Post - Choppy Back and Forth
THE OPEN July beans: 20 higher July meal: 1.40 higher July soyoil: 84 higher July corn 7 higher July weather: 6 higher The markets opened...
Technical Views - Soyoil Continues to Lead
SPREADS August crush trades higher to 45.94% while crush trades to 81c/bu. Spreads are softer in corn, with July/Dec trading down to 1.00 3/4c invers...
AM Outlook - Strong Open, Highs Tested
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher overnight as funds return as buyers on hot and dry weather conditions and bullish technicals. In the lead are s...
Market Commentary: Energies, Soyoil, and Spring Wheat Rally; Grains and Cattle Reverse Course
The CBOT started Wednesday’s session lower in overnight trade but stronger energies and soyoil pulled soybeans higher for the day. Grains were weaker...
Industry Resilience; Failed Extortion; Downstate Ignored
Industry Resilience When COVID hit and food supply chains were disrupted by the shift to consuming food at home instead of from institutional providers, cr...
Eggs versus People
Among the animal proteins, only milk has lower GHG emissions than poultry eggs. This is because in a sense, they are both renewable farm products. A cow pr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.75/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.875/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Live Hog Market Face Uncertainties, Nears Breakeven Point According to the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs’ (MARA)...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24-28 May 2021 The Russian domestic grain market reacted to the introduction of the new “floating” export duty effective...
PM Post - Trading Weather
THE OPEN July beans: 11 higher July meal: stray July soyoil: 140 pts higher July corn: 1 lower July wheat: 2 3/4 higher Big s...
Technical Views - Mostly Sideways Higher
SPREADS August oilshare trades to 44.82% while crush trades up to 82c/bu. Jly/Nov bean inverse reached a six-week low trading down to 1.45 1/2c...
AM Outlook - Mixed Influences = Mixed Markets
GOOD MORNING, Precise are mixed overnight with a better condition rating for corn creating a minor pullback at the start of the PM session. Beans con...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Dry Weather; Cattle Collapse on Cyber Security Risks
The CBOT opened sharply higher on Tuesday following a long, holiday weekend that saw U.S. weather forecasts deteriorate significantly. Spring wheat (Minnea...
Update on Cyber Attack on Meat
This morning we posted an alert on the cyber-attack on JBS IT infrastructure in North America and Australia. The attack happened over the weekend and the c...
Trilogue Pain is Palpable
The marathon trilogue negotiations between the European Commission, European Parliament, and the European Council failed to achieve agreement on revisions...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.8875/bushel, up $0.32 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.935/bushel, up $0.3 from yesterday's close. Ju...
COOL Report
The requirement in the U.S. for country-of-origin labeling became effective in 2008 and by 2015 legislators were writing its repeal. The way it had been de...
PM Post - Highs/Lows Are In
THE OPEN July beans: 27 higher July meal: 5.40 higher July soyoil; 97 higher July corn: 20 3/4 higher July wheat: 18 1/2 higher The...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Grain importers in the region were very interested in Russia’s announcement of its new...
Cyber Security: New Commodity Market Risk?
Just three weeks after the Colonial Pipeline that supplies about 45 percent of the gasoline to the U.S. East Coast was hit by cyber hackers, the largest me...
Technical Views - Readjustment
SPREADS August crush trades at 74.58c/bu while oilshare is 44.12%. Jly/Nov bean inverse drops to 1.53 3/4c from 1.58 3/4c as traders will have to beg...
AM Outlook - Rebound
GOOD MORNING, As we move into the month of June, traders will continue to watch weather and demand. Prices regrouped last week after dropping to mont...
Memorial Day Holiday
Monday, 31 May is a U.S. holiday, and the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 1...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Profit Taking; Brazilian Water Crisis; Soybeans Forming Bearish Top
The CBOT was lower to end the week with quiet trading heading into the long, U.S. Memorial Day weekend. Bulls booked some profits after yesterday’s l...
Fast Reversal; Green Test Case; Teaspoon of Sugar
Fast Reversal On Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai told Reuters that, “It’s impossible to predict the organic development of a...
$6 Trillion Budget Unveiled
The White House released the President’s Budget today; it is a $6 trillion dollar package that picks up where the COVID pandemic relief spending left...
Climate Ghosts
Mexico’s Deputy Central Bank Governor Irene Espinosa is doing what many other politicians do when they want innocence from a problem – blame gl...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
No Technical Perspectives Today
Due to the Memorial Day holiday, there will be no Technical Perspectives reports today. The next reports will be on Tuesday, 1 June 2021...
Market Commentary: Thirsty Thursday
Markets do not often hit their daily trading limit, but corn got there today and there were mostly bulls across the complex. The trade had driven prices do...
Livestock Round Up: Where’s the Beef? Argentina Bans Exports
The U.S. beef cutout is still at elevated levels and cattle prices are in the doldrums as capacity and labor issues create a kink in the value chain. Botto...
Ag Review - May 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine issues surrounding market demand...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.645/bushel, up $0.4 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.7625/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. ...
Bipolar World Returns; Transatlantic Speech Divide
Bipolar World Returns Russia and China have been presenting a united front to the West, but the West has not been reciprocating, until now. President Biden...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; China Soy Crush; More Containers, India Soymeal
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters made moderate export sales of U.S. soybeans and soymeal in...
PM Post - Stronger than Expected
THE OPEN July beans: 2 higher July meal: 2.00 higher July soyoil: 35 higher July corn: 8 higher July wheat: 10 higher The markets opened...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 29,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 76 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average.&n...
AM Outlook - Corn Export Driver
GOOD MORNING, Prices were mixed with the grains firmer vs. the soy complex, but after export sales all rallied into the close. For bulls, the g...
Technical Views - Better Supported
SPREADS August crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 44.51%. July/Nov beans traded down to .52 1/4c inverse from 1.59c. July/Dec meal...
Market Commentary: Commercial Buying Helps Corn Rally; Soymeal Drags Soybeans Lower
The CBOT started the day weaker, but end-users stepped up in the corn market and created enough strength to force a higher close. As such, the corn market...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.245/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.485/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...
Antitrust Dust; GMO Spin; Inflation-Catastrophes
Antitrust Dust European antitrust officials have been busy, and their latest target is a large but declining giant called Coca Cola. The investigation migh...
China In-Country Analysis
Pandemic Growing Uncertainty Over COVID-19’s Origin Deepens Rift Despite the hot start for U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2021, Beijing’...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 May 2021 Russian domestic grain markets did not see any major price shifts, and although the market continued to show bullish...
PM Post - The Close
THE OPEN July beans: 5 lower July meal: 3.00 lower July soyoil: 29 lower July corn: 3 lower July wheat: 10 lower The markets opened...
Technical Views - Pressure Remains Downward
SPREADS August crush trades to 77c/bu while oilshare trades to 44.83%. Bean bull spreads are firmer with Jly/Nov trading up to 1.69c from 1.61c. ...
AM Outlook - Weekend Exit
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to establish lower trading ranges with soyoil once again the leader to the upside. It is typical that markets will foll...
Climate Strategy: “USDA Setting Clear Price Signals”
On 16 November, after the election, we reported on the transition memo for USDA to provide “recommendations that can help the President hit the groun...
Market Commentary: Funds Pummel CBOT; Market Weakness Confirms Tops Were Made
The CBOT fell sharply (except for soyoil, which seems to be living in its own little world) with funds quickly and aggressively liquidating long positions,...
That is Nutty Policy
The U.S. Commerce Department is doubling the tariff on softwood lumber imported from Canada to 18.32 percent. The hike is coming at a time of record lumber...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.2025/bushel, down $0.37 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.565/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&n...
PM Post - Everyone Out
THE OPEN: July beans: 8 higher July meal: 1.40 lower July soyoil: 75 higher July corn: 3 1/2 lower July wheat: 2 higher The markets opened as called but...
That’s Nuts
When it comes to almonds, the U.S. is the world’s largest producer by far. It produces over 80 percent of the world’s almond crop. However, whe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The owners of the container ship that blocked the Suez Canal – Ever Given – are c...
Technical Views - CBOT Trying to Find Lows
NOTE: Technical Perspectives from WPI will not be published Friday, May 28, 2021. SPREADS August crush trades at 75c/bu while oilshare declines t...
AM Outlook - Soy Complex Gains on Grains
NOTE: Technical Perspectives from WPI will not be published on May 28, 2021. Good morning - Prices traded higher overnight led by soyoil, w...
Market Commentary: CBOT Starts the Week Lower; End-Users Buy the Break
The CBOT started the week on a weaker note with funds taking a more defensive position after last week’s selloff. Nearly all CBOT contracts were lowe...
Productivity Impacts; Classic Policy Divides
Productivity Impacts The Kansas City Federal Reserve kicked off its annual conference on agriculture with this year’s topic seemingly a little tin ea...
Uncertain Values
British farmers are upset that their government may give access to the UK market to beef from Australia. They argue that they are not competitive against t...
2021 and 2022 RVOs Could be Kept at 2020 Levels
The EPA is floating a trial balloon of maintaining the 2020 RVOs for 2021 and 2022. In April, a group of Senators urged EPA to add 500 million gallons to t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5725/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.6225/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest is progressing slowly but gaining speed. Harvest gained 3 percent last week, bringing the total to 27.6...
PM Post - Weight of Benign Weather
NOTE: LCF will be closed May 28. THE OPEN July beans: 7 3/4 lower July meal: 2.30 lower Juy soyoil: 45 lower Jul corn: ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s 1 May grain stocks totaled 9.5 MMT in 2021, up 0.18 MMT from the same period in 2020. Notably, wheat stocks were up 8 p...
Technical Views - Sell on Rallies
SPREADS August crush atrades to 79.80c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.60%. July/Nov bean inverse firms from its lows of 1.63 1/4c to trades up to 1.7...
AM Outlook - Possible Stabilization This Week
GOOD MORNING, Prices were lower overnight as a combination of good weather and poor technical closes created more fund long liquidation. The trend co...
Cattle on Feed
1. United States Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent 2. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of...
Market Commentary: Red Ink to End the Week; Tight EU Corn Market; Mixed Cattle on Feed Report
The CBOT ended the week on a down note with low trading volume. The soy complex recovered slightly around noon but finished the day lower with mild losses...
Contrasting Climate Approaches
While the EU is developing a command-and-control approach toward making farming more climate friendly, the newly announced Biden Administration approach is...
Cattle on Feed: May 2021 Tighter than May 2019
USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today. The inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 11.7 million head, 105 percent...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.595/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.7425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Reliability versus Value in Beef
Argentina’s restriction on beef exports to control domestic inflation and political upheaval could raise issues over reliability as a supplier. Howev...
PM Post - Liquidating Length
THE OPEN July beans: 12 lower July meal: 2.20 lower July soyoil: 89 lower July corn: 8 lower July wheat: 6-7 lower The market...
Technical Views - Down She Goes
SPREADS August crush trades to 81c/bu while oil share trades to 43.51%. Bean inverses are weaker with July/Nov trading down to 1.60c from 1.65 3/4.&n...
AM Outlook - Taking Profits
GOOD MORNING, Prices started mixed overnight, but mostly on the defensive led by beans and soyoil futures. This morning we are seeing another round of end-...
Market Commentary: Recognizing the Top
Some say it is hard to know the top of a market, but the funds think they’ve seen it and this Friday’s Commitment of Traders report is likely t...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 May 103...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales, Aviation Fuel Legislation
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated the week ending 13 May was another slow one for export sales of U.S...
PM Post - Grains Firmer; Oilseeds Weaker
THE OPEN July beans: 1 3/4 lower July meal: 2.00 higher July soyoil: 1.40 lower July corn: 3 higher July wheat: 1/4 lower Pri...
Export Sales
Exporters for the period May 7-May 13, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 121,000 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and...
AM Outlook - Soyoil's Turn to Dip
GOOD MORNING, Prices found early strength at the open on a follow-through comeback for July corn which closed unchanged after opening sharply lower yesterd...
Technical Views - Riding a Lower Range
SPREADS July crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 44.52%. The July/Nov bean inverse trades to 1.69c, off the low of 1.66c, and up to...
Soy Complex Collapses; Corn Fights Back, KS Wheat Yields Grow
The CBOT tumbled again on Wednesday amid increased chatter about a near-term market top. July and November soybeans violated technical support at the open,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.5825/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.7925/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Challenges Mount for China’s Hog Producers Ongoing problems with breeding sows, the cost of piglets, falling live hog prices, and the high...
PM Post - Topped Out?
THE OPEN July beans: 26 lower July meal: 1.80 lower July soyoil: 205 pts lower July corn: 6 1/2 lower July wheat: 17 lower Th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 May 2021 Corn, barley, and wheat prices on the domestic market continued to grow while rye prices decreased. Apart from the gl...
Technical Views - All Lower
SPREADS July crush trades to 82c/bu while oilshare trades to 44.85%. Bean inverses weaken while corn inverses strengthen. Jul/Nov bean spread i...
AM Outlook - Macro Sell-off
GOOD MORNING, Prices were on the defensive once again as the markets continued to leak lower as funds liquidate more length. Would note that outside...
Market Commentary: Rhythm Trading
It might be the rhythm method if funds are withdrawing but in a market in which there are few fundamentals pushing the trade outside of its technical bound...
More Demand but No More Chickens
Packing capacity has been an issue not only for cattle and beef production, but for broilers also. Production is also slowed by various issues like labor a...
Forecasting Pork Demand
U.S. hog and pork markets exploded this year with pork prices challenging the COVID-19 pandemic highs and hog values challenging record highs set during th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA In Egypt, the Sues Canal Authority has announced plans to deepen and widen the southern stret...
CPTPP Appeal; Food Opponents; TRIPS for Free
CPTPP Appeal China’s aggressive effort to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) may be having an uni...
PM Post - Poor Performance for Soy Complex
THE OPEN July beans: 7 higher July meal: .30 higher July soyil: 84 higher July corn: 9 1/2 higher July wheat: 6 3/4 higher Th...
AM Outlook - Tuesday's Turnaround
GOOD MORNING, Turn-around Tuesday is here and values are higher on a combination of short-covering, bargain - hunting, and pricing activity. July soy...
Technical Views - From Low to Higher
SPREADS August crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare trades t. 443.39%. July oilshare trades to 45.67%. July/Nov beans traded from 1.90 3/4c to 1.95c...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Surges on Tight Stocks; Wheat Falls as Corn Rally Fades
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with little conviction from buyers or sellers. Corn futures tried to rally but lacked much follow-through buying inter...
Anti-Meat Campaign; Personnel Picks
Anti-Meat Campaign The number of media articles against consuming meat and poultry is beginning to spike. They cover the range of arguments served up by ve...
Cattle Producer Agenda
Last Monday, principals of several cattle producer groups met in Phoenix at a meeting convened by the Livestock Marketing Association (LMA). Participants i...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.525/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $6.9975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Farmers are still focused on harvesting soybeans, which means the corn harvest is progressing very slowly and is delayed versus the prior ye...
Lumber Price Turnaround
After more than a year of sharply rising prices, softwood lumber is finally starting to show some cracks. Due to circumstances related to COVID, softwood l...
PM Post - Rallies Not Holding
THE OPEN July beans: 10 higher July meal: 6.00 higher July soyoil: 20 pts higher July corn: 8 higher July wheat: 4 1/2...
AM Outlook - Mixed Up
GOOD MORNING, Prices will open mixed after all were trading lower at one point during the PM session. July open interest continued to drop, as...
Technical Views - Wheat Drags on Market
SPREADS August crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare trades to 43.29%. Bull spreads are rallying again with July/Nov beans trading back to 1.95 1/2c...
Market Commentary: Miss. River Reopened; Funds Liquidate; Remember the Big Picture
One day after shutting one of the most important waterways in the world, the U.S. Coast Guard reopened the Mississippi River near Memphis, Tennessee for ri...
EU Gets Nutrition Right; Sensing Weakness; Farming Future
EU Gets Nutrition Right It looks messy, with fights over food labeling, red light systems versus front of package, etc. But EU policymakers see the rise in...
Consumer Spending and Retail Food Inflation
There’s been a lot of media coverage of inflation since the April consumer price index (CPI) report. Consumer prices rose 0.8 percent in April, the f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Tighter Global Stocks
This year has seen higher commodity prices spiked by tighter ending stocks for some key commodities. However, reductions unique to this year relative to th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.4375/bushel, down $0.31 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.0725/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&nb...
PM Post - Still Defending
THE OPEN July beans: 20 higher July meal: 8.30 higher July soyoil: 82 higher July corn: 9 higher July wheat: 20 1/2 higher Th...
AM Outlook - Bottom Tested
GOOD MORNING, Funds headed for the exits as charts started to build in resistance leading to selling yesterday, triggering sell-stops. Funds sold 16,...
Technical Views - Bounce Day
SPREADS July crush trades to 73c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 43.61%. July/Nov bean inverse bounces to 2.00c with a low of 1.84c. J...
Market Commentary: Not Dull
Okay, the market is not dull, but it is sometimes difficult to explain. Except for wheat, the sharp sell-off appears as an over-reaction to yesterday&rsquo...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Sees 2021 Cattle Slaughter Catching Up – Eventually
USDA raised its total red meat and poultry production forecast for the year in yesterday’s WASDE report. Broilers were down based on year-to-date sla...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.4 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.015/bushel, down $0.2825 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Greening GMO’s; Good Regulatory Approach; AMLO Thumps Biden
Greening GMO’s The European Court of Justice correctly lumped all genetic modification technologies into one heap and now the technology is being car...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; USDA WASDE Report and Soybeans
Minimal U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil made only smal...
PM Post - Washout
THE OPEN July beans: 20 lower July meal: 6.20 lower July soyoil: 64 lower July corn: 17 lower July wheat: 7 1/2 lower The markets o...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 30,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 61 percent from the prior 4-week avera...
AM Outlook - Weather, Stocks and Funds
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board on profit-taking heading into the weekend. The USDA report has come and gone, and we are left looking...
Technical Views - All Going Down
SPREADS July crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 42.68%. Inverses remain well supported with July/Nov beans trading to 1.95c to 2.08c.&nb...
WASDE Soyoil
SOYOIL: Soybean oil is expected to hold a higher share of the crush value as prices are buoyed by increased use of soybean oil as a feedstock in an expandi...
WASDE Soymeal
SOYMEAL: soybean crush for 2021/22 is projected at 2.2 billion bushels, up 35 million from the 2020/21 forecast, reflecting favorable crush margins. ...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: The 2021/22 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for lower supplies, lower exports, higher crush, and higher ending stocks compared with 2020/21.&n...
WASDE Corn
CORN: The corn crop is projected at 15.0 billion bushels, up from last year on higher area and a return to trend yield. The yield projection of 179.5...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The initial outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are...
Market Commentary: Unsurprising Surprise
Today’s USDA WASDE report was not what the trade thought, and yet it was not caught flat-footed. To some degree this is because years of guessing wro...
Border Tax Rationalized; Stimulus Leakage; Inflation and Environment
Border Tax Rationalized There are both economic and geopolitical reasons being presented for why the G-7 (U.S., Canada, EU, and Japan) should pursue a comm...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Live Hog Producers Confront the Scissors Effect Record feed costs, historically high piglet prices, biosafety costs, and declining...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $7.1475/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.2975/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&n...
PM Post - Mixed Bag
THE OPEN July beans: 19 higher July meal: 1.40 higher July soyoil: 99 higher July corn: 1 higher July wheat: 5 lower The mark...
Ethanol Price Impact
The June ethanol futures contract hit a record high last week at $2.29/gallon but that may not have a lasting effect on exports. The market has been in rec...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 May 2021 Corn, barley, and wheat prices on the domestic market grew following global trends. The export milling wheat average pr...
Technical Views - Two Sides of a Report
SPREADS July crush falls to 74.32c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 42.24%. Bull spreads see more strength with Jul/Nov beans trading up to 2.04 3/...
AM Outlook - WASDE a Reference, Not the Bible
GOOD MORNING, The bulls continue to roll on with more strength overnight emanating from a strong close and reversal from Monday's weakness that more or les...
Summary of Futures
CORN July 2021 ($/bu) $7.2225 WHEAT July 2021 ($/bu) $7.4175 HARD RED WINTER WHEAT July 2021 $7.1050 HARD RED SPRING WHEAT July 2021 $7.7050 SOYBEANS July...
Market Commentary: End-Users Bid CBOT Higher Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT started the day lower with continued fund liquidation in the major ag commodities. End-users, however, stepped up and offered support at key techn...
Labor Situation and Livestock
Tomorrow, USDA releases its monthly WASDE report. Last month’s report projected red meat and poultry production in 2021 to be 100.7 percent of 2020...
Free with a Twist; Cleaner Economy
Free with a Twist A group of U.S. Congressional Democrats are proposing universal free meals to all school children. The massive expansion in federal food...
Ethanol Ripple Effects
Brazilian ethanol prices have been rising, which has usually been good for U.S. ethanol exports. Bloomberg reports that increased demand for transportation...
PM Post - Air in the Market but Bottom Found
THE OPEN July beans: 10 higher July meal: 6.20 higher July soyoil: 13 lower Jul corn: 12 higher July wheat: 10 higher T...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The Muslin holy month of Ramadan ends this week and is followed by the Eid al Fitr celebratio...
AM Outlook - Bears versus Bulls
GOOD MORNING, After remaining mostly steadfast in their fund positions over the last few weeks, the funds finally decided to liquidate a portion of their p...
Technical Views - Mostly Higher
SPREADS July crush is trading at 84.58c/bu while oilshare trades to 41.69% as it continues to correct. July /Nov bean spread bounces ba...
Market Commentary: Correct(ion)!
The CBOT ended sharply lower on Monday with corn and wheat leading the downside move. Both markets had achieved strongly overbought levels last week and we...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $7.1175/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.305/bushel, down $0.3125 from yesterday's close.&...
Money Games; Misdirected Trade Policy
Money Games SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is a familiar face to the agriculture community, having chaired the CFTC during the Obama Administration. He is repor...
Colonial Pipeline Cyber Attack and Biofuels
On Friday, the Colonial Pipeline, which is the largest refined product pipeline in the U.S., running 5,500 miles from Texas to New Jersey, was attacked by...
Mismeasurements
The activist community wonders why there can be food waste and hungry people at the same time. They want the rich countries to solve the problem, but it is...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s weather has been ideal for harvesting but farmers are still focused on soybeans. This week’s corn harvest prog...
PM Post - Healthy Consolidation
THE OPEN July beans: 1 lower July meal: .80 lower July soyoil: 14 lower July corn: 5 lower July wheat: 15 lower&n...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Favorable rains forecast for Europe in the coming week will aid winter crop development and help recently planted spring crops establis...
AM Outlook - Correction Mode
GOOD MORNING, The overnight markets were in correction mode for the PM session, led by wheat as better weekend rains were noted. The markets closed m...
Technical Views - Some Higher, Some Lower
SPREADS July crush trades to 88.94c/bu while oilshare trades to 42.18%. Spreads are higher this morning with July/Nov bean inverse firming to 1...
Market Commentary: Early Break Sparks Buying; Soybeans Follow Through on Breakout
The CBOT ended sharply higher on Friday afternoon with corn, soybeans, wheat, and soyoil all posting new contract highs. Early trade was muted/lower as USD...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodit...
Friday Policy Shorts
Designed Obsolescence: According to NielsenIQ, 50 of the 52 food categories it tracks are more expensive than a year ago, with butter and milk being the on...
Summary of Futures
Jul 21 Corn closed at $7.3225/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Jul 21 Wheat closed at $7.6175/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
30,000-Foot View: Technology, Politics and Policy
A good topic for Friday is the big picture outlook of what is on the horizon, the so-called “30,000-foot view” so named because that is the cru...
Income and Deficits
Matthew Klein (Barrons) and Michael Pettis (Peking University) have authored the book, Trade Wars are Class Wars. In it, they argue that countries like Ger...
PM Post - Fire Sells the Fact
THE OPEN July beans: 7 higher July meal: 3.20 higher July soyoil: 84 higher July corn: 7 1/2 higher July wheat: 11 higher The market open...