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Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.105/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. ...

Agroecology’s Day in Court; Adapting to the Market

Agroecology’s Day in Court  The economists at USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) calculated that the EU’s Farm to Fork initiativ...

Turkey Demand Zooms

The U.S. is the largest producer and consumer of turkey meat in the world. U.S. turkey production equates to 45 percent of the world’s total and whil...

PM Post - No Surprises

THE OPEN Jan beans:  6 3/4 higher Jan meal:  .90 higher Jan soyoil:  35 higher Dec corn:  1 1/2 higher Dec wheat:  2 3/4 lower Pri...

Technical Views - Oilseeds Green; Grains Red

SPREADS Jan crush weakens to 1.11c/bu while oilshare is firm at 32.0%.  Corn spreads are mixed as Dec/March narrows back into 9 1/2c from 10c lows, wi...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 300,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average...

Am Outlook - Mixed on Bottom Testing

GOOD MORNING, Prices were lower for the first part of the night seeing more follow-through liquidation on yesterday's lower performance, with the soy compl...

Market Commentary: Bull Markets Die, But Not Yet

What goes up must come down, but this is still a sideways market at worst. Bulls must be fed and there were no big sales and instead it was profit taking...

Livestock Round Up: Higher Fed Cattle Prices and Feed Costs

Fed cattle prices are up, finally rebounding from the disruption to packing capacity constriction, large numbers of cattle on feed from drought conditions,...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.8825/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&...

Oilseed Highlights: WASDE; Is China’s Focus on Corn or Soybeans?

WASDE and the Soybean Sector Tuesday’s USDA crop production and WASDE reports sent a shock through the soybean sector. USDA reduced its estimate for...

Indignancy Earned; Johnny One-Note; USTR Review Team

Indignancy Earned Brazilian agricultural specialists were in Europe this week trying to redirect impressions about the sustainability of their country&rsqu...

PM Post - Strong Pullback Prevents Overbought

THE OPEN Jan beans:  4 lower Dec meal:  2.10 lower Dec soyoil:  12 lower Dec corn:  2 1/2 lower Dec wheat:  4 3/4 lower Prices buc...

Technical Views - Lower on Weakness

SPREADS Jan crush trades down to 1.16c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.0%.  Corn spreads widened today with Dec/March trading out to a 10c carry from 9...

AM Outlook - Corrective Mode

GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to digest the WASDE information released on Tuesday having made new highs, but in corrective mode today along with weake...

Reflections on the November WASDE

Before USDA’s November 2020 WASDE was released, the grain trade generally expected a mildly bullish report. But there was nothing mild about the Nove...

Market Commentary: Russia Defines Wheat Quota; Soyoil Leads CBOT Higher

The bullish November WASDE continued to support prices on Wednesday, with the CBOT opening higher on sustained buying interest. Soyoil was the upside leade...

Agriculture and RCEP

Asian leaders gather this Sunday to hopefully put the final touches on a trade agreement called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The...

Biden Trade Agenda; Biden’s Familiar Agriculture Team

Biden Trade Agenda Speculation remains ripe over the trade policy changes that are likely under President-Elect Joe Biden. Trade is said to not be a top pr...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock October Reports Show Improving Pork Supply and Price Pressures According to the latest corporate filings for this past October, the average live...

PM Post - Some Struggles at These Heights

THE OPEN Jan beans:  6 3/4 higher Dec meal:  2.80 higher Dec soyoil:  48 higher Dec corn:  1 3/4 higher Dec wheat:  3/4 higher Pri...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2 - 6 November 2020 Russian domestic wheat, barley and corn prices kept growing but at a slower rate than last week. However, due to...

Technical Views - Supportive for Now

SPREADS Jan crush trades to 1.22c/bu while oilshare trades to 31.47%.   Spreads are mixed with Dec/Dec corn inverting to 19 3/4c from 15 1/2c.&nb...

AM Outlook - Follow-through From Supportive WASDE

GOOD MORNING, Happy Veteran's Day, and thank you for your service. The November report, typically a quiet data set, offered up a few surprises that not onl...

WASDE Soyoil

The soybean oil price is forecast at 34.5 cents per pound, up 2.0 cents from last month.  ...

WASDE Soymeal

 The soybean meal price is forecast at $355.00 per short ton, up $20.00...

WASDE Soybeans

November U.S. soybean outlook for 2020/21 is for lower production and ending stocks.  Soybean production is forecast at 4.17 billion bushels, down 98...

WASDE Corn

November 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks.  Corn production...

WASDE Wheat

November 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks.  Domestic use is raised, primar...

Market Commentary: November WASDE Holds Huge Bullish Surprise for Corn, Soybeans

The November WASDE was expected to be bullish, but USDA’s actual numbers surprised even the most ardent corn and soybean bulls. One of the biggest su...

Ag Subsidy Evolution; Opinions on COVID/Election

Ag Subsidy Evolution The incoming Biden Administration reportedly is unsure what to do about the future of the new farm subsidies launched by President Tru...

WASDE Livestock and Dairy – Cattle Liquidation

Today’s WASDE increased beef, pork, and broiler production forecasts slightly, but across the board – all less than one-half percent. Compared...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.085/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Ja...

Sudan Overweight in Livestock

Sudanese officials have reportedly spoken to U.S. officials about Khartoum’s aspirations to both join the WTO, and export agricultural products to Am...

PM Post - Bull Wins

THE OPEN Jan beans: 8 1/2 higher Dec meal:  1.30 higher Dec soyoil:  21 higher Dec corn:  3 3/4 higher Dec wheat:  3 higher The markets...

MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Lebanon officials have said that the Beirut port silos will be demolished due to the extensiv...

Technical Views - Direction Remains Higher

SPREADS Jan crush trades to 1.17c/bu, lower than in recent days but still positive.  Jan oilshare trades to 31.69%.  Dec/March corn spreads remai...

AM Outlook - Firm Ahead of Report

GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer across the board this morning with beans in the lead scoring new contract highs again this morning.  Strong demand for...

Reign of Terror; Next USDA Leader

Reign of Terror It's not the French Revolution kind of reign of terror but what happens during presidential transitions in the U.S. is sometimes uncomforta...

Lame Duck Congress and Biden Trade Transition

Congress is back for a lame duck session which has one must pass agenda item – a full FY 2021 appropriations funding bill, and a high-profile item -...

India’s Gain is Competitors’ Losses

India’s monsoon season has been abundant and has boosted hopes for bumper crops that will boost incomes and exports. This contrasts with urban areas...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe remains lodged in a warmer/drier-than-average weather trend for the next two weeks. Except for the UK and parts of southeast Eur...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn As WPI readers are well aware, corn prices/basis have risen around the world due to strong demand, most notably Chinese purchases, and tightening supp...

PM Post - Risk on Ahead of Report

THE OPEN Jan beans:  8 3/4 higher Dec meal:  4.80 higher Dec soyoil:  40 higher Dec corn:  3/4 higher Dec wheat:  1/4 lower The ma...

AM Outlook - Surprising Length in Corn

GOOD MORNING, Ag prices are mixed this morning, but the real action is in the stock market which is sharply higher on positive vaccine news and investors b...

Technical Views - Consolidating Mix

SPREADS Jan crush trades to 1.27c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 31.81%.  December futures continue to roll forward or liquidate.  December c...

Market Commentary: Soybeans Score Technical Win; Profit Taking Pressures Grains

The CBOT opened higher but found profit taking and farm cash/hedging sales that pushed markets off the day’s highs. The soy complex was once again th...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.02/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&n...

Long-Term Forecast Challenges

USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist issues annually a long-term projection of its expectations for the major crops. Its latest forecast was released...

PM Post - End of Week Position Squaring

THE OPEN Jan beans:  3 higher Dec meal:  1.10 higher Dec soyoil;  18 higher Dec corn:  2 higher Dec wheat:  5 higher The markets o...

Election Update and What it Might Mean for Ag Policymaking

The U.S. election votes are still being counted - and some will be recounted. Wisconsin is subject to an automatic recount (if requested by a candidate, wh...

Technical Views - Steady as She Goes

SPREADS Jan crush trades to 1.26c/bu while oilshare is at 31.33%.  Dec/March trade trades from 5c carry out to 5 3/4c, while Dec/Dec inverse trades fr...

AM Outlook - Still on a Tear

GOOD MORNING, Funds were buyers across the board yesterday on macro inflows everywhere, friendly USDA report expectations next week, and a continued good e...

Livestock Round Up: Bone-In Hams Drove September Exports

The Livestock and Meat Export report for September was released today. Pork exports were 545 million pounds in September, up 17 percent over last September...

Market Commentary: Risk-Off Fun

It was a risk-off day in both commodity futures and financials. Investors like the likely outcome of the election, especially if a President-elect Biden an...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.0925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Eventual Retest of Bottom

THE OPEN Jan beans:  15 higher Dec meal:  450 higher Dec soyoil:  1.03 higher Dec corn:  8 3/4 higher Dec wheat:  12 higher The ma...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Breeding Pig Restocking Efforts 0n Track Through the first nine months of 2020, China has imported 15,400 head, an increase of 1,40...

AM Outlook - New Highs

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board as funds buy anew yesterday.  Beans place new ctr highs with January over $11.00 with rumors that Chi...

Technical Views - Onward and Upward

SPREADS Jan crush trades to 1.28c/bu while oilshare is at 31.11%.  Spreads are firm again, with Dec/Dec corn inverse trading up to 16 1/2c from 11 3/4...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 597,100 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 20 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from the prior 4-week avera...

A World Full of Questions

At this writing the results of Tuesday’s U.S. election are still uncertain. Joe Biden holds an electoral vote lead over President Donald Trump, but t...

Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on Dry Weather; China Blocks Aussie Wheat

The soy complex was the upside leader Wednesday with dry weather in South America sparking a 20-cent rally in soybean futures. Soyoil was helped higher by...

Global Impacts of Election; Local Impacts of Election

Global Impacts of Election At this juncture, there is no definitive conclusion to yesterday’s U.S. presidential vote, but Joe Biden has the edge. Con...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0525/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.06/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...

Soybeans Export Picture at Risk

U.S. wheat and corn exports for their current respective marketing years are on track with the prior year and ahead of their five-year averages.  U.S...

PM Post - Bull Soy; Otherwise Sideways

THE OPEN Jan beans: 5 3/4 higher Dec meal:  4.40 higher Dec soyoil:  10 higher Dec corn:  1/4 higher Dec wheat:  1 1/2 lower The market...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 26 - 30 October 2020 Russian domestic wheat, barley and corn prices kept growing at different rates depending on regions. One of the...

Technical Views - Mostly Higher

SPREADS Jan crush trades firmer to 1.28c/bu while oilshare trades to 31.11%.  Dec/March corn trades weaker again, out to 6c carry from 5c.  The D...

AM Outlook - Post Election Steady

GOOD MORNING, Prices this morning are firmer with gains in the soy complex but grains treading water.  The nearby corn spreads have moved out to a car...

Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday on Shrinking Corn, Soybean Yields

Election day is here for the U.S. and both CBOT and macro markets seemed to take encouragement from that fact. The dollar moved sharply lower on election u...

GI Attack; Natural GMO’s

GI Attack Transatlantic relations under a President Biden may be less verbally kinetic than under President Trump but U.S. agriculture is not going to go d...

McRib-O-Nomics and Pork Supply

McDonald’s has announced that it will bring back its seasonal and iconic McRib sandwich this year. The McRib has almost a cultish following. In fact,...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.01/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.08/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Ja...

Farm Income and Presidents

Since it is election day in the U.S., we look at how farm income has performed under various presidents. Presidents receive the credit or blame for the ove...

PM Post - Turnaround Bounce

THE OPEN January beans:  12 12 higher Dec meal:  2.00 higher Dec soyoil:  58 higher Dec corn:  3 higher Dec wheat:  4 higher The m...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Turkey has protested to the WTO about the Philippines extending its antidumping duties on Tur...

Technical Views - Uptrend for the Day

SPREADS Jan. crush trades 1.24c/bu while oilshare mounts a rally back over 31.0% to close at 31.10%.  Spreads are higher today, with Dec/Dec corn inve...

AM Outlook - Trading Ranges Ignore Election

GOOD MORNING, Finally......election day is here.  Many of the markets have gyrated to the unknowns of this event, and Ags are not immune.   ...

Fiscal Policy and the Federal Budget

With one day left before the 2020 election, one issue hasn’t received any attention, but it may be the biggest challenge facing policy makers startin...

Market Commentary: Wheat, Crude Oil Rally; Row Crops Flat; Hogs Look Bearish

The CBOT traded a mixed day with wheat futures posting a strong rally and the soy complex falling back after a strong start. Corn futures were under pressu...

Unseriousness of Campaign Promises; Big is Better; Eating American

Unseriousness of Campaign Promises If the polls are correct, Joe Biden is elected president tomorrow and the question is what changes besides civility? Loo...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. ...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe’s weather patterns remain warmer and drier than average for the next week. The dry weather will allow for faster planting...

Strategically Handicapped

The EU used the Uruguay Round’s obligations for greater disciplines to transition EU agriculture away from the previous policy of higher internal pri...

PM Post - Funds up, Technicals down

THE OPEN January beans:  7 lower December meal:  1.80 higher December soyoil:  33 lower December corn:  4 3/4 lower December wheat:&nbs...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Corn has become the darling of Argentina’s local markets this week. Prices have been volatile with swings averaging $7-8/MT. Despite the volatil...

Technical Views - Defending Bottoms

SPREADS Jan. crush trades higher to 1.34c/bu while oilshare trades to 30.84%.   Look for higher crush values to underpin meal, while weaker energ...

AM Outlook - Adjusting Lower

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board as profit-taking continues to hit the market based on better global rainfall, long fund positions, and rece...

Election Preview

The U.S. election is in just a few days (Tuesday, 3 November). Virtually any outcome is possible. The range is so wide because of the close popular vote ma...

Market Commentary: End-User Buying Supports CBOT; Cattle Rally

The final trading day of October saw few tricks or treats for ag commodities ahead of Halloween. The CBOT traded mostly lower in low-volume trade with corn...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.985/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  J...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

EU Plant Protein Aspirations

EU policymakers would like for the Continent to be more self-sufficient in plant proteins, whose demand growth has been robust the world over. However, agr...

PM Post - Risk-off and Stronger Dollar

THE OPEN January beans:  7 3/4 higher December meal:  1.30 higher December soyoil:  30 higher December corn:  steady December wheat:&nb...

Technical Views - Recovery Day

SPREADS  Jan crush trades 1.27c/bu while oilshare trades to 30.79%.  Cash markets are breaking a bit this morning which is also pressuring the sp...

AM Outlook - Bull Bounce

GOOD MORNING, The markets bounce this AM led once again by the soy complex.  Beans are leading the way higher.  Brazil continues to grow its bean...

Market Commentary: Overblown COVID Concerns

The market was called lower and it opened that way but then spent the rest of the session trading both directions before closing mixed. The mindset was to...

Livestock Round Up: Adjustments for Beef

Last week’s Cattle on Feed report shows there are a lot of cattle in the pipeline while the sector is struggling to figure out where holiday beef dem...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.985/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

PM Post - Mission of the Market

THE OPEN January beans:  1 lower December meal:  1.20 lower December soyoil:  20 lower December dorn:  3 lower December wheat:  6...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 743,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 54 percent from the prior 4-week average...

Technical Views - Pullback Continues

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.21c/bu while oilshare trades up to 31.0%.  Spreads are weaker with Dec/Dec corn trading down to 11 1/4c inverse from a m...

AM Outlook - Capital Sucking Sound

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue lower as funds are taking money out of the markets on technical considerations as more bearish formations create a down-turn,...

Ag Review - October 2020

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue looks at the continued impact of the global...

What Lies Ahead for U.S.-China Relations

Amid the second surge of coronavirus infections, the U.S. presidential election is next Tuesday, 3 November. No matter who wins, the election results will...

Market Commentary: Markets Fall on Macro-Weakness; WPI 2021/22 Outlook

The CBOT started the day sharply lower as overnight selling pressured corn, wheat, and soybeans to double-digit losses. Yesterday’s day-session weakn...

Post-Trump Outcomes; Food but Not Income; Between Elephants

Post-Trump Outcomes Analysts in Washington are war gaming the possible aftermath of next Tuesday’s presidential election and finding nothing good. On...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.015/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.0875/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Organic Requires Scale

Advocates for organic food in the U.S. lament that acreage devoted to organic food production is expanding at a slower pace than the increase in the number...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19 – 23 October 2020 Russian domestic market wheat prices continued to increase; barley and corn prices started growing very f...

PM Post - Lower Prices May Attract Buyers

THE OPEN Jan beans:  19 1/2 lower Dec meal:  10.60 lower Dec soyoil:  79 lower Dec corn:  12 lower Dec wheat:  12 3/4 lower The ma...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Meat Imports on Track for Record Year Although the pandemic and the ongoing trade war with the U.S. have caused many challenges wit...

Technical Views - Downward on Risk-off

SPREADS Jan crush trades down to 1.16c/bu while oilshare strengthens to 31.22%.  The corn inverse weakens with Dec/Dec trading down to 18 3/4c from 24...

AM Outlook - Reversal Means Top in Place

GOOD MORNING, Weaker macro markets, overbought conditions, and too long funds are resulting in lower markets across the board, and perhaps one of the best...

Post-Election Dynamics

Odds are that Joe Biden becomes the next U.S. President, which prompts some understanding of its implications for the agriculture sector.  Trade: The...

Ag Demand for Energy

The Energy Information Administration’s energy outlook for this fall and winter factors in agriculture demand. Propane is expected to be down, diesel...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.16/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.1575/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&...

Monopolistic Impacts

One of the charges by populists in the agricultural sector is that consolidation has led to monopolistic conditions, or at least a monopsonist situation. O...

PM Post - Some Chips Off Top; Watch Bottoms

THE OPEN Jan. beans:  3/4 lower Dec. meal:  .10 lower Dec. soyoil: 18 lower Dec corn:  1 3/4 higher Dec wheat:  2 higher Prices begin t...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  An atlas of Global Surface Water has just been published which shows the changes in surface w...

AM Outlook - Rolling On

GOOD MORNING, Prices remain cautiously mixed, with bulls eyeing key technical spots on the charts.  Corn prices moved to a new trading range high for...

Technical Views - Mixed to Cloudy

SPREADS Jan crush trades to 1.37c/bu while oilshare trades at a steady 30.73%.  Corn spreads remain very firm with Dec/March trading into new contract...

China Phase One and Hog Inventory

Today, USDA released the latest interim report from USDA and USTR on the Phase One China trade agreement. The report notes that “Chapter Three of the...

China versus USA; Post-COVID Attitude

Respondents to our last survey regarding the advantages of China versus the USA could have been skewed by the nationality of respondents. One interpretatio...

U.S. Wheat Planted and Harvested

During this winter wheat planting period in the U.S., it is important to note that the area planted to wheat has declined in recent years. This is due in p...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.2/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU Commission lowered the region’s corn and soybean 2020 yields in its 26 October monthly bulletin. The EU corn yield was rev...

PM Post - Bending not Breaking

THE OPEN January beans:  3 lower December meal:  3.80 lower December soyoil:  46 higher December corn:  3 1/2 lower December wheat:&nbs...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Last week, rains finally came to Argentina with good coverage over the agricultural areas. The precipitation brought some relief for the wheat and co...

Technical Views - Pullback on Record Exports

SPREADS Jan crush trades to 1.29c/bu while oilshare firms to 31.38% from recent lows closer to 30.0%.  Dec/March corn trades into even from 1 1/2c car...

AM Outlook - Correction Week

GOOD MORNING, Strong cash markets, weather, and the unknown quantities of corn demand from China continues to underpin the markets in general.  Demand...

Market Commentary: WPI 2021 Acreage Forecasts; China Quota News Drives Buying

The CBOT opened in-line with expectations with buy grains/sell oilseeds trade developing early. Some bull spreading developed between soyoil/soymeal as the...

Cattle on Feed

• U.S. Cattle on Feed up 4% at 11.7 million head on October 1, 2020. The inventory was 4 percent above October 1, 2019. This is the highest October 1...

WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent; EU Food Fun

WTO Bad/Good/Indifferent Bad: The U.S. Congressional Research Service has concluded that trade war payments and COVID relief payments to farmers have likel...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Record October Cattle on Feed Report

USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 11.7 million head, that is 103...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1925/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.3275/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close.  N...

Holder of Stocks

With potentially smaller crops this coming season in South America due to delayed planting schedules, the question is how this will impact major ending sto...

PM Post - Bean Exhaustion After Good Run

THE OPEN January beans:  1 lower December meal:   3.30 higher December soyoil:  14 lower December corn:  2 higher December wheat:&...

Technical Views - Still Working Higher

SPREADS  Jan crush trades firmer at 1.28c/bu while oilshare trades back down to 30.37%.   Spreads are firmer with Dec/Dec corn now inverting...

AM Outlook - More of the Same

GOOD MORNING, This week featured further contract highs and new highs for most of the markets on trading ranges.  Funds will head out longer than a we...

Market Commentary: Beans and Meal Hot; White Wheat Too?

Open interest is rising in commodities and Goldman Sachs says that with inflation likely to return, the outlook is bullish commodities. While agriculture i...

October Cold Storage Report

The attached PDF shows WPI's summary analysis and interpretation for the latest Cold Storage report, published 22 October 2020 by the USDA. Brief...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.2275/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

COVID II Policy; Meet Meat; Needing Liberalization

COVID II Policy Financial markets continue to be confused about the direction of the economy amidst a new surge in COVID cases and political uncertainty. T...

PM Post - Demand Driven

THE OPEN January beans:  1/2 higher December meal:  1.70 higher  December soyoil:  31 higher  December corn:  3/4 higher Dece...

Export Sales

Wheat: Net sales of 367,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...

CFTC Approves Commodity Position Limits

One common thread running through part of the history of grain trading has been the subject of federally set limits on the size of positions that a trader...

AM Outlook - Overbought but Well-bid

GOOD MORNING, Prices started the session lower as rains fell in SA, and futures sport overbought chart signals.  However, once again pullbacks were sh...

Technical Views - Only Wheat Called Lower

SPREADS Dec crush trades to new highs at 1.30c/bu while oilshare is steady at 30.64%.  Dec/March corn trades into new highs at 1 3/4c from 3c, while D...

Future Volatility; Special Goose

Future Volatility As if the past few years have not been tumultuous enough, markets must now brace for what could be intensified volatility in the weeks ah...

Market Commentary: Snow Falls, Grains Rise; Cattle Look Undervalued

The CBOT once again opened as called with strength across the board. At one point this morning, every major ag commodity was in the green. By day’s e...

Equity in Crops

Dave Juday pointed out in a recent analysis that the Midwest and the South have reaped the most in Market Facilitation Payments (MFP) not because of politi...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.2975/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nb...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Falls to Lowest Level Since May 2019 For the first time since July 2019, China’s food prices climbed by less than doubl...

PM Post - Lofty, Overbought, No Tops

THE OPEN January beans:  8 1/4 higher December meal:  6.80 higher December soyoil:  2 higher December corn:  3 3/4 higher December whea...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12 - 16 October 2020 Domestic market wheat prices grew significantly; barley, corn and rye prices also increased but at a smaller ra...

Technical Views - Upside Follow-through

SPREADS Dec crush remains strong at 1.27c/bu while oilshare trades at 30.61%.  Bullspreads remain strong with Dec/Dec corn inverting to 12 1/2c from 8...

AM Outlook - Rising Premiums

GOOD MORNING, Bull market price action continues as funds purchase the market based on technical strength.  Most of the markets except for soyoil cont...

Market Commentary: Drought Drives Wheat Higher; Corn, Soybeans Firm Amid Harvest

The CBOT continued most of the trends that developed yesterday with funds remaining net buyers in corn, wheat, and soybeans. Grains, especially wheat, led...

CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments

CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) w...

Economic Recovery Officially V-Shaped

On 29 October, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) issues the Q3 2020 GDP report, it likely will show the economy grew at more than 33 percent, base...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0875/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.32/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  N...

Pasta versus Bread

Wheat is the largest and possibly oldest consumed food grain in the world, but its future is slowing down. Known as the staff of life, about 50 percent mor...

PM Post - Liquidity Influx and Momentum

THE OPEN January beans:  6 higher  December meal:  3.00 higher December soyoil:  40 higher December corn:  1/2 higher December whe...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Reports in Nigeria say that some imported maize has arrived but that the moisture content is too hi...

Technical Views - Firm Support

SPREADS  Dec. crush trades to 1.27c/b while oilshare trades to 30.16%.   Dec/March corn trades from 4 3/4c carry out to 5 1/2c.  Dec/De...

AM Outlook - Still Building Support

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board as funds continue to buy the market.  Beans are leading the way up with continued rumors that China i...

Market Commentary: Grain Rallies Continue; Cattle and Deferred Hogs Plummet

The CBOT was higher again on Monday with grains leading the way. Corn and wheat futures showed pronounced strength while soybeans were mostly along for the...

Brazil’s Corn and Soy Tariffs; Trade Facilitation

On Friday we commented on Brazil’s livestock and poultry demand potential for DDGS co-produced by the growing trend of corn ethanol production in Bra...

Summary of Futures

 Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.27/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close...

Lack of Tourism Hurts Food

COVID-based economic lockdowns have broadly hurt economies around the world. Restaurant, entertainment, and airline sectors have been particularly wounded...

Denuded Logic; Tax Consequences

Denuded Logic A key argument by some Europeans in both opposing palm oil imports, voting against a trade agreement with Brazil, and seeking self-sufficienc...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Market Overview It has been a hard week for the Argentina grain markets. The macroeconomic situation is becoming more complicated every day and hurting bus...

PM Post - Choppy Profit-taking

THE OPEN January beans:  2 1/2 higher December meal:  6.20 higher December soyoil:  31 lower December corn:  4 higher December wheat:&n...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia plans to bring an additional 6 million hectares (Mha) of land into agricultural production by 2024, per the country’s ag m...

Technical Views - Subject to Pullbacks

SPREADS  Dec. crush trades to 1.26c/bu while oilshare trades below 31.0% to new lows of 30.40%.   Crush continues to be very strong, support...

Am Outlook - Vulnerable to Breaks

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with soyoil futures lower against higher markets elsewhere.  Wheat leads the rally, trading into new highs...

Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New High; La Nina Increasingly Bullish

Wheat, corn, and soybeans all opened higher, as called, and posted fresh highs for their respective rallies. Only wheat, however, was able to hold gains as...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Friday Intrigue

Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. I...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.2525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

World Food Day Perspective

Commodity prices have been on the rise and most of the attention until this week has been on the supply side with worries about weather. In recent days it...

Thinking About the Coming Supply of Brazilian DDGS

Back in 2013, under the U.S. sugar program, sugar refiners and processors were headed toward forfeiting more than 350,000 MT of sugar under loan, which tri...

PM Post - Vertical Inevitably Turns Choppy

THE OPEN January beans:  6 1/2 higher December meal:  1.40 higher December soyoil:  32 higher December corn:  3 1/4 higher December whe...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 528,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were unchanged from the previous week, but up 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.&nb...

Technical Views - Pullbacks will get Bought

SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.23c/bu while oilshare trades below 31.0% to new lows of 30.89%.  Spreads remain strong with Dec/Dec trading to a 12c in...

AM Outlook - Bulls Roll On

GOOD MORNING, Prices made new highs for meal, corn, and wheat as the bull market rolls on.  Corn basis is firm, as are cash markets across the world.&...

Market Commentary: Attracting Outside Capital

There were lots of large worries in the big picture but not so much in agriculture today as it carried on in a mostly bullish affair. The macro markets are...

Livestock Round Up: Fauci Talks Turkey

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has suggested that American’s may have to “bite the b...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0375/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.1825/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

PM Post - Wall Street Red; Chicago Green

THE OPEN November beans:  15 3/4 lower December meal:  2.00 lower December soyoil: 98 lower December corn:  2 lower December wheat:  2...

What a Difference a Year Can Make

In some manner every annual crop cycle is different from its predecessors even if those differences are small enough to fade from memory over time. However...

Technical Views - Lower, except Wheat

SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.17/bu while oilshare trades down to 31.24%.   Corn spreads continue strong with Dec/Dec now inverting to 4c from 2...

AM Outlook - Mixed on Risk-off

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with all lower except wheat.  Nervous longs are exiting soyoil and beans on weak overnight price action.&n...

Goose and the Gander; EU Green Leakage

Goose and the Gander President Donald Trump says he wants to make the U.S. a manufacturing powerhouse no longer dependent on China. Those in agriculture ha...

Argentina DET Trouble

Argentina has used the differential export tax for many years to favor the export of processed soyoil and soymeal over soybeans. The policy supports an ind...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.965/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China’s Feed Demand Continues to Climb as Hog Industry Recovers According to the latest survey results from China’s National Feed Ind...

PM Post - Carving Out Technical Ranges

THE OPEN November beans:  6 higher December meal:  3.50 higher December soyoil:  4 higher December corn:  1 higher December wheat: ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5 - 9 October 2020 Russian domestic market prices for wheat and barley kept growing and corn prices also grew significantly. Export...

Technical Views - Back in Ranges

SPREADS Dec crush trades at 1.10c/bu while oilshare trades at 31.86% as meal gains on soyoil this morning.  Dec/March corn firms into 7 1/2c from 8c,...

AM Outlook - Mixed in Favor of Beans/Meal

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed to begin the session with beans and meal higher, lower elsewhere.  Rumors continue that China is in the market for bean...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.9125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.94/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...

The Legislative Sausage Making of COVID Relief

The on-again, off-again negotiations over the next round of COVID relief entered a new phase this week. The White House offered a compromise $1.8 trillion...

Kiwi Future; Inflation/Future China-U.S.

Kiwi Future New Zealanders go to the polls on 17 October and while the popular Labour Party is expected to easily retain control of the government, agricul...

Worse than Agriculture

The agriculture sector is under strong criticism for its harm to the environment. Multilateral disciplines on agricultural subsidies are considered too wea...

PM Post - Bulls Bounce; Bears Lie Flat

THE OPEN November beans: 5 higher December meal: 1.80 higher December soyoil:  13 higher December corn:  3/4 higher December wheat:  1 1/4 h...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s Consumer Price Index for “urban consumers” is said to have increased 3.8...

Technical Views - Not all Turnaround

SPREADS Dec. crush trades 1.11c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.18% , popping back over the 32.0% level.  Dec/Dec corn spreads are still firm trading f...

AM Outlook - Turnaround but Two Sides

GOOD MORNING, Turn-around Tuesday is here on cue, with yesterday's break finding good pricing and buying interest.  Good bull markets typically have h...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.89/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9425/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...

CFAP 2 Payments Now Flowing

The second round of the CFAP program – i.e. CFAP 2 – has already begun making payments. WPI provided a summary on how the program was structure...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  European weather conditions remain concerning for 2021 winter crops. While eastern Europe and western Ukraine are slated for rains in t...

Wheat-Rice Substitution

In the classic position of a wheat exporting nation, consumers that have traditionally consumed rice as a food grain ultimately become wheat consumers. Thi...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Weather conditions continue to work against the Argentine wheat crop. Rains are still absent and soil moisture levels are depleting rapidly. Forty-se...

PM Post - Wheat Defies Profit-taking Elsewhere

THE OPEN November beans:  6 lower December meal:  2.70 lower December soyoil:  3 lower December corn:  1/2 higher December wheat: ...

Technical Views - Bean Weakness

SPREADS Dec. crush trades up to 1.06c/bu while oishare trades to 31.98%.   Dec/Dec corn remains firm with prices trading into 1 1/4c from 1 3/4c...

AM Outlook - Back to Weather Watching

GOOD MORNING, The USDA report is out of the way, and the numbers were bullish for beans, and neutral to bullish corn.  Wheat found some surprising bea...

Market Commentary: Corn, Soybean Supplies Cut; Wheat Falls on Global Stocks

USDA offered a mix of surprises and as-expected numbers in the October WASDE. The agency, as expected, offered lower corn and soybean production figures fo...

WASDE Livestock and Dairy

Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s combined red meat and broiler production forecast down 1.5 percent from 2019, and down 2.8 percent from the March W...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Big on Stimulus; Appropriate Sanction; Real Work Changes

Big on Stimulus As is the raucousness of Donald Trump, he was for an economic stimulus package with the Democrats before he was against it and now is for i...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.95/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9375/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...

WASDE Soyoil

 The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 32.5 cents per pound...

WASDE Soymeal

The soybean meal price is forecast at $335.00 per short ton, up $20.00. ...

Toward Virtuous Agriculture

Agriculture is being singled out for its deleterious impacts on the environment. The current popular target is deforestation, largely for its adverse impac...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA reduced ending stocks of U.S. soybeans for the 2020/21 season and decreased global ending stocks:  U.S. soybean supplies for 2020/21 are forecast...

WASDE Corn

USDA reduced ending stocks of corn for the 2020/21 season and decreased global ending stocks:  U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.722 billion bush...

WASDE Wheat

USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks:  U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels...

PM Post - Neutral to Bullish

THE OPEN November beans:  6 3/4 higher December meal:  3.00 higher December soyoil:  69 higher December corn:  4 1/2 higher December wh...

Technical Views - Bullish Ahead of WASDE

SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.04c/bu while oilshare is firming to 31.71%.  Bull spreads remain firm, with Dec/Dec corn trading into 2 3/4c from 5c, w...

AM Outlook - Day of Truth

GOOD MORNING, Price action has been guided for most of the week by current demand and speculation about today’s October WASDE report. Based on where...

Livestock Round Up: Exports Help Hog Prices

Pork export sales hit a yearly high for the week ending 1 October at 60,200 tons, which was 152 percent of the four-week average. China bought close to hal...

Market Commentary: Drip, Drip, Drip into the Red

The major markets were called higher at the open and that is where they went. Soybeans and soymeal actually hit contract highs today. Wheat was the first t...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.87/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.&...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 530,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 5 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. &nb...

Experience versus Korea; Breaking the GMO Boundary

Experience versus Korea The runoff to be the next leader of the WTO is between Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and South Korea’s Yoo Myung-hee. B...

PM Post - All Upward Until Profit-Taking

THE OPEN November Beans:  16 1/4 higher December Meal:  9.40 higher December Soyoil:  14 higher December Corn:  4 higher December Wheat...

Dalian Futures Market Analysis

Monthly Summary September Surge Driven by Soybean Complex, Palm Olein, and Corn With China’s economy rapidly returning to pre-COVID-19 levels in the...

Technical Views - New Highs

SPREADS Bullspreads remain strong along with crush.  Dec crush gaps higher top 1.13.39c/bu while oilshare struggles at 31.08%.  Dec/Dec corn trad...

Wheat’s New Story

Here is an interesting riddle: With USDA likely to increase its already record large 2020/21 world wheat production estimate a few MMT in Friday’s Oc...

AM Outlook - The Bull's Camp

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trade upward into the report with technical momentum continuing in the bull's camp.  All markets except soyoil post n...

China In-Country Analysis

Due to the holiday closures in China this week, China In-Country Analysis will be delayed. ...

Vice Presidential Debate; Chasing Europe on Carbon

Vice Presidential Debate Mike Pence debates challenger Kamala Harris tonight for the right to be vice president over the next four years. Some will be look...

Wheat Less Symmetrical

Cash corn prices in the U.S., Argentina and Brazil tend to move in similar ways, with Argentina showing brief instances of outlier status. However, compar...

Market Commentary: Money Fuels Rally; CBOT Trades Higher Into October WASDE

CBOT markets traded both sides of unchanged overnight but were higher heading into the morning’s open. The day trade saw prices immediately move sha...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.8875/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

PM Post - Sharply Higher Targets

THE OPEN November beans:  9 higher December meal:  3.50 higher December soyoil:  30 higher December corn:  4 higher December wheat:&nbs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 September - 2 October 2020 Domestic Russian market prices for wheat and barley grew significantly, but at a slower rate than the...

Technical Views - Arrows are Up

SPREADS  Dec crush trades to 1.05c/bu while oilshare trades town to 31.58%.  Bullspreads are firm, with Dec/Dec corn trading into 7 3/4c from 10...

AM Outlook - Fresh Highs

GOOD MORNING,  Bullish chart formations continue to trigger technical fund buying activity.  Meal values continue to lead over soyoil, which repr...

Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Sharply Higher; WPI 2020/21 Outlook

Soybeans and corn led the CBOT higher with fund buying continuing to fuel the bullish fire. Upside breakouts on the soybean, corn, and wheat charts led to...

Gasoline and Ethanol Use Forecast Down for 2021

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its October Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) cutting ethanol, biodiesel, and gasoline use projections...

Pick Your Poison

Given China’s pork shortage and its concurrent sensitivity to imports, some have speculated that pork has been entering the country, or is poised to,...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9275/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Demand Stimulates Bulls

THE OPEN November beans:  14 1/4 higher December meal;  5.50 higher December soyoil:  56 higher December corn:   4 1/4 higher Dece...

Technical Views - Upside Pressure

SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 99.36c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.18%.  Spreads are firmer with Dec/Dec corn narrowing into 11 1/4c from 12 1/4c.&nbs...

AM Outlook - Weather Premium

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly higher led by beans, and a good recovery in soyoil futures.  The catalyst for higher trade in beans is the weather, wh...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Jordan reports wheat stocks on hand of 1.35 MMT – enough, they say, to cover all requir...

Is the Latest Milk Price Rally the Last for the Year?

After inching their way up last week, Class III milk futures broke $20/cwt and stayed there today. Cheese prices remain strong, but with a big gap in the c...

Winning Pig Production

China is the world’s largest pork producer with output double the size of the second biggest pig maker, the EU. ASF caused the Middle Kingdom’s...

Ballot Initiatives; Coronavirus Money; Middle Kingdom Challenges

Ballot Initiatives Elections in the U.S. bring with them ballot initiatives, either initiated by citizens or the legislatures. This year there are at least...

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.795/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.8425/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat  Argentina’s wheat crop continues to suffer from drought from the center of the wheat-growing region to the north of the country. Last wee...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  More favorable weather patterns have developed over Europe and western Ukraine in recent weeks. Last week saw widespread rainfall acros...

PM Post - As Called For Now

THE OPEN November beans: 1/4 higher December meal: 1.90 lower Dec soyoil:  40 higher Dec corn:  1 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 10 higher The markets ope...

Technical Views - Higher Except Meal

SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.02c/bu while oilshare trades below 32.0% to 31.38%.  Bull spreads are firmer with Dec/Dec corn trading into 10 1/4c fro...

AM Outlook - Up, Down and Sideways

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with wheat futures setting new highs again this morning while meal corrects to the downside against soyoil.&nbs...

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