Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 December 2024 – 3 January 2025As of the end of 2024, Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) statistics show “preliminary” grain crop size at 124.96 MMT without including occupied territories of Ukraine, but including annexed Crimea. RosStat can issue “preliminary” updates...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 December 2024Last week, the Russian grain markets showed the first signs of the holiday season with rather weak trading. Russian grain markets and especially export business will adjust to the Christmas season globally which will then enter Russian Orthodox Christ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 December 2024Russian grain markets remained relatively stable but, in some areas, especially export platform, prices were bearish. Part of the reason behind a bearish trend is the potential decrease of stocks. As of early December, stocks of agricultural companies...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 December 2024Export duties were the key driver followed by forex and increased freight costs for rail deliveries which are the main channel of grain delivery to the ports both from Russian territory and occupied territories of Ukraine. Before, freight was not a majo...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 26 November, Russian farmers produced 132 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 19.3 MMT less than a year ago. This is with the crop harvested from 97.7 percent of the area yielding only 2.82 M/ha versus 3.16/MT a year ago. Grain yields...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the oilseed complex more broadly – are seeing pressure from excellent conditions in South America as well as the political ramifications of Presi...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18 – 22 November 2024Russian Vice Premier Dmitri Patrushev is confident that Russia will export up to 60 MMT of grains this season. According to Mr. Patrushev, the gross grain production this season will reach 130 MMT in standard weight, of which 83 MMT is wheat. The Vice...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Fall on Export Data
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex finding their way into the red for various reasons. Wheat initially rallied on rising tensions and attacks between Rusia and Ukraine, with Ukraine accusing Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missil...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 November 2024Russian Union of Grain producers and exporters announced that winter wheat area for 2025/26 may drop to 15.4 Mha which will be the smallest planted winter crops area since 2018/19. Particularly, wheat area may drop by 0.9 Mha to 16.3 Mha, and after wi...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...
Market Commentary: Today was Green but Headwinds for the Week
Corn, soymeal, live cattle and lean hogs all traded lower during the morning start but by the end of the day, only lean hogs ended lower. There were modest volumes being traded on Friday for most contracts, except feeder cattle where it was nearly double the five-day average.December soymeal hi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday marked the fifth straight business day with a “flash” export sales announcement for corn, with Mexico responsible for essentially all of the de...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Fuel 2-Day Corn Rally; Wheat Rises with Russian Prices
CBOT grains and oilseeds seem to be playing “follow the leader” and have recently switched roles. Previously, soybeans were rallying and pulling grain futures grudgingly higher, but that has completely flipped following Monday’s Grain Stocks report. Now, corn and wheat are ris...
Russia’s Grain Shortfall
Today’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report provided the market with a bullish input but there may be another shoe to drop. Russia’s stocks to use ratio for corn and wheat have been dropping for four straight years. Over that timeframe, it is down 64 percent for corn and 48 percent f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Amid Weak Russian Prices; Soyoil Rises on Exports; Macro Markets Boost Cattle
Markets and traders were broadly enthusiastic following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-bps cut to its target interest rate on Wednesday, but you wouldn’t know that from looking at the grain or oilseed markets. Wheat futures were sharply lower on Thursday amid pressure from French whe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 September 2024 The Russian grain market is finally showing bullish sentiments. Adverse weather in Russia this season concerns many analysts, and they are one after another decreasing their forecasts for overall grain production. Exact numbers are hard to figure...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 August 2024 Kazakhstan announced they will close the borders with Russia for wheat from now until 31 December. This will put even more pressure on the Russian wheat market and may push them to offer softer offers for GASC tenders where they are the key players...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 August 2024 Crop Outlook As of 13 August, Russian farmers produced 69 MMT of grains from 20.6 Mha versus 73.5 MMT from 19.5 Mha last year. The average yield showed 3.36 MT/ha versus 3.76 a year ago. Wheat production reached 56.3 MMT from 15.8 Mha versus 57.4 M...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 August 2024 Crop Outlook Russian analysts woke up to the fact that grain production reported from farms is higher than originally predicted. The reaction was quick and most of the main analytical agencies in Russia reforecast their numbers upwards. Particularly,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 July–2 August 2024 Russian Vice Premier Patroushev announced that Russia is 40 percent done with harvesting small grains. The harvesting pace is ahead of last year’s pace; however, production is only 64 MMT which is lower than last year’s crop. The gr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 July 2024 This season Russia will fail to produce a record crop despite an earlier harvesting campaign. The Ministry of Agriculture believes in their previous forecast of 132 MMT of which wheat is 86 MMT. Interestingly, the Ministry of Agriculture is the most...
Market Commentary: Bears Concentrate on Soybeans, Wheat Scores Reversal
The CBOT started the week with a collapse in soybeans and the broader soy complex in early trade that pulled corn and wheat lower as well. Soybeans, soyoil, and wheat all scored new contract lows in the early selloff with funds eagerly extending their short positions. By the day’s end, ho...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of global exports. Egypt’s GASC secured 20 KMT of sunflower seed oil at $1,013.99/MT for 1-15 September delivery. The original pla...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign. Even though this year’s crop is quite modest compared to the past several seasons, the pressure on prices is significant because of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...
Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?
CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout the day, which left wheat and soybeans to trade higher. Wheat found support from dryness in the Black Sea and smaller crop estimates for Russi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 June 2024 Russia’s grain markets were quite volatile with some regions showing price recoveries. Southern Russia’s harvesting campaign is underway. Fresh demand for new crop barley has seen better price levels and as long as feed barley exports are...
Market Commentary: Still Looking for that Inevitable Bottom
Today, everything bled red except live cattle. Generally favorable U.S. weather overhangs the market until USDA’s Acreage Report is issued next week on 28 June. Nothing is tanking as much as wheat, with Paris now entering oversold territory and July HRS hitting a new contract low...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 June 2024 Last week, Russian grain markets were quite volatile. In the south, the main export-oriented areas saw grain prices drop following the global bearish trend and Russia’s most recent failure on the GASC tender in Egypt. Moreover, Russia’s s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 June 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable and slightly bullish against solid demand for Russian wheat globally and recently appreciated markets due to fears of lower production caused by adverse spring weather. All Russian ministries, including the Ministr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 May 2024 Russia remains the focus of many world grain analysts as weather factors in Russia and Ukraine make global markets nervous and bullish. Futures markets reacted almost instantaneously while Russian markets only now realize the situation and all grains...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission imposed an import tax on Russian wheat, corn, products derived from their processing, and feed. The duties range from €95-148/MT for various wheat varieties, €94/MT for grain corn, €93/MT for barley and rye, 3.2-64 percent for sunflower oil,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 May 2024 Crop Outlook Russian weather, particularly spring frosts, became an important factor in estimating the potential of this season’s crop. Despite the warnings from government agencies not to publish forecasts, several Russian analysts still announ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Bulls Remain Relentless; U.S. Farmers Make Strong Planting Progress
Overnight volume was strong at the CBOT with traders eager to get back to work following a weekend of reductions in the Black Sea crop forecast(s). Several private firms lowered their Russian wheat crop estimates late Friday or over the weekend, which sent EU futures higher on Monday and create...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Corn Still Strong; Soy Complex Waivers
Corn traded mostly higher all session and has gained value in three of the past four days. The soy complex was higher in the overnight session and opened that way this morning, but it didn’t last long and closed in the red. The July soybean contract has had a mixed week, but it is still u...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 May 2024 Crop Outlook As of mid-May, Russia farmers planted 24.8 Mha of spring crops which is 44.5 percent of the forecast. This is 4.6 Mha ahead of last year’s planting pace. Grains and pulses were planted over 12.98 Mha which is 43.2 percent of the for...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Highs on Smaller Russian Crop; Corn, Soy Fall on Planting Progress
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and the soy complex finding pressure after Monday’s Crop Progress report reflected better-than-expected planting progress. That reduced concerns about late plantings negatively impacting yields or, for soybeans, unplanted corn acres being switched t...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April–3 May 2024 Last week Russia celebrated International Labor Day, and on May 9 will celebrate WWII Victory Day, resulting in a long 10-day holiday for many Russian families, including grain traders. This traditionally slows down trade, however, logistics cont...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 April 2024 Russian analysts are beginning to worry that this season’s grain production in Russia may drop from almost 145 MMT in 2023 to 135 MMT because of the drought in Southern Federal District – the wheat belt of Russia. Russian Ministry of Agr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may leave Russia without proper genetics for this spring’s planting campaign. While small grains are available due to long term domestic see...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 April 2024 The government has realized that taxing exportable wheat and barley at a high rate was not a good idea, especially with wheat stocks pushing the roof. Possibly the news about softer duties will improve prices for small grains. Corn duty is symbolic an...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 March 2024 Last week, the Russian domestic grain market was volatile. Most of the grains were recovering following global trends and demand in the export zone of Russia. However, even with zero duty which lasted only one week, feed corn continued losing ground...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risks Sink CBOT, Macro Markets
The CBOT and broader financial/macroeconomic markets reflected uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks on Tuesday with traders adopting a strong “risk off” mentality. Rising tensions in the Middle East with Iran and Israel’s proxy fight threatening to dissolve into an open w...
Market Commentary: Acreage Outlooks Weaken Corn, Soy; Wheat Gains on Firmer Russian Offers
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower heading into Thursday’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports from the USDA, but wheat futures managed to find midday support and settle higher. Wheat’s strength came from another week of cautious gains in Russian FOB offers, which is seen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 March 2024 The Russian domestic grain market saw depreciation of milling wheat and a slight depreciation of feed wheat, while feed corn also started to appreciate - most probably because of softer export duties. For the upcoming week, exports of feed corn from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on EU Tariffs; Soy, Corn Drift Lower Before Stocks, Acres Reports
The wheat market was the surprising upside leader for the day with Matif Paris futures posting large gains after sources said the EU Commission is considering applying a €95/MT tariff on Russian wheat imports. That strength spilled over into the U.S. markets, though U.S. wheat exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish in the south and Volga valley. However, export prices did not react immediately despite a decreased export duty and weaker RUB. In fact, a weaker RUB is better for Russian grain exports which are at hi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...
Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE
With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW. Tomorrow will see the release...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Peas Please
As noted in today’s Black Sea report, the price of peas in Russia are rising as exports go unfettered by any export tax. Canada is by far the largest exporter of peas with a two-thirds market share. But Russia is second with a 12.4 percent market share, the U.S. exports about 9 percent of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...
Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues as CBOT Contemplates Record Fund Short Position
Tuesday’s mood at the CBOT seemed to be one primarily of consolidation and mild short covering. Corn futures extended Monday’s key reversal but failed to make much upside progress while the soybean market settled lower after posting 16-cent gains in early trade. Wheat futures pushed...
Policy Quick Hits
Appropriations Deadline The initial deadline for avoiding a government shutdown is one week from today, 1 March. By that time, Congress needs to pass four appropriations bills, including the agriculture appropriations, as well as the energy and water, military construction and transportat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise
Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Firm in Early Week Trade; Russia Lowers “Suggested” Wheat Price
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman roll concluded its fourth day on Monday, which helped drive some of the day’s trade, though roll volume was far below Friday’s...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat markets remain under pressure as Western Europe and Black Sea exports battle each other and the American markets for export demand. Paris Matif futures were sharply lower last week and scored new contract lows and a post-WASDE rally on Friday brought additional selling...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The export market has been driving this market for a while and intervention purchases did not save Russian farmers from the global bear. Moreover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harvested from occupied territories. During a recent press conference, he mentioned that during 2023 Russia produced 150 MMT in bunker weight and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 January 2024 After the January holidays, the Russian market is being revised step-by-step. The volume of trade is not so impressive but against all odds and large stocks the market saw some bullish sentiments especially with rye and peas. Peas dramatically appr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 December 2023 As of late December, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts grain production at 142 MMT. A week ago, the Russian Statistics Agency had already reported 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Done...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 December 2023 As of mid-December, the Russian Statistics Agency reports 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. The wheat crop alone accounted for 92.8 MMT which is the sec...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs like seeds, fertilizers, chemicals, spare parts, and western equipment. In an effort to help, the government provided subsidies to farmers a...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Crush; Grains Dip on Slack Exports
The CBOT was mixed to start the last full trading week of 2023 with the soy complex rallying on the heels of last week’s NOPA crush report. The report featured the second-largest U.S. soybean crush in history, which helped push the soy complex higher for the day. Exports were a weight on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT a year ago. The information from the Ministry is delayed and is usually adjusted several times. Wheat was reportedly harvested from 29.1 Mha...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Pulls Soy Complex Lower; Wheat Rises on Growing Demand
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In contrast, the wheat market managed to shrug off Monday’s dramatic declines and push higher with signs that world demand is starting to in...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 November–1 December 2023 Russian markets finally broke the bear which has been present almost since the beginning of the new season. High quality milling wheat is unmistakably bullish; the main factor is a lower share of high-quality milling wheat even though whe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 November 2023 Russian markets remained quite volatile, however, the Asian area finally stabilized because Kazakhstan seems to have replenished their stocks for the moment. The Siberian market is stable and although prices for 3rd grade milling wheat are...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows to Start the Week
Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, carving out new contract lows. There was no bullish news for wheat, cattle, or hogs, which led to a deluge of selling to start the week. The w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 November 2023 The Russian market remained quite volatile with European Russia bearish and the Asian region bullish thanks to solid demand from Kazakhstan. However, the gap between the European and Asian parts of the country is getting smaller and smaller...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 November 2023 Russian markets remained quite volatile last week with the European area stable and bearish but the Asian part stable and bullish thanks to demand from Kazakhstan. This can move into a stagnation period where, with no fundamental factors inv...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Linseed’s Small Story
In today’s Black Sea report, WPI’s analyst points out that Russia and Kazakhstan, and particularly Russia are supplanting Canada as a supplier of linseed. Russia previously produced around a half-million tons a year but is now nearing 2 MMT or half of global production. World produc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 October–3 November 2023 As of 30 October, Russia harvested 140.2 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 9.8 MMT less than the same date a year ago. Grains and pulses were harvested from 45.4 Mha which is 94.6 percent of the crop averaging 3.09 MT/ha versus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 23–27 October 2023 As of 27 October, winter crops were planted over 18.5 Mha versus the 20 Mha planned by the government. If Russia reaches this number, it will be up 1.5 Mha from last year. This also includes occupied territories of Ukraine, according to the g...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 October 2023 As of 20 October, Russian farmers harvested grains and pulses from 44.6 Mha which is in line with last year (44.5 Mha), averaging 3.08 MT/ha versus 3.33 MT/ha, a record-breaking year in Russian history. Interestingly, Russia first reports th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 October 2023 After weeks and weeks of bearish sentiments the market is finally coming to relative stability because farmers can afford to sit on their stocks, and most of the multinational trades are not currently doing business in Russia. Local old and n...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the WASDE Storm
The CBOT was mostly calm before Thursday’s October WASDE – a report that often produces volatile reactions from the market. Corn and wheat drifted mostly lower, but corn managed to squeeze out a gain of a few cents in quiet trade. Soybeans dropped sharply lower despite daily “...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–27 September 2023 Bearish sentiments prevail as the harvest brings more and more grain to the market while exports are unable to cope with such large volumes and surpluses of wheat. There is a lack of competition on the buyer’s side as fewer and fewer...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Russia’s Wheat Situation
Egypt was reportedly negotiating with Russia on a purchase of 1 MMT of wheat but has now gone to an international tender. Meanwhile, Tunisia tendered for 100 KMT of there were no offers from Russian trading houses. The trade believes Moscow has put a brake on wheat exports through an unofficial...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 11–15 September 2023 Russian grain markets plummeted on reports of another large crop and huge carryover which is not traditional for this time of the season. We are talking about 140 MMT of new crop plus around 27 MMT of old crop (carryover). Russia started th...
Market Commentary: Russia Undercutting Wheat Markets; Corn Sees Temporary Bounce
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with wheat values still languishing under stiff competition from Russia. Wheat values are drifting lower despite 10-year low U.S. supplies and tight ending stocks, but with exports off to a weak start amid competition from Russia, few want to be long the market. Co...
Market Commentary: Traders Earn a Weekend
In what has been an intense week of market activity, Friday’s action was at once modest but demonstrative of the volatile path ahead. Volume was constrained, except in soyoil and SRW, two contracts that closed higher today and for the week. The cattle market continued its...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 September 2023 Russian grain markets remained bearish, however, export volumes of all agricultural commodities from Russia remained stable. Russia has no navigation restrictions across the Black Sea. Going through Bosporus or any other channel, Russia can...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
Market Commentary: Declining Crop Ratings Push CBOT Higher; Wheat Rallies on Russian Attacks
Tuesday’s surprise (but not entirely unexpected) decline in U.S. corn and soybean conditions ratings, in tandem with more Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports, sent the CBOT sharply higher overnight. KCBT wheat was the only market, however, to maintain most of its strength with CBOT wheat,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 August–1 September 2023 Russian grain markets finally signaled that the new crop is calling the shots on the market. Southern areas went bearish because of ample supply and slow logistics while inland trading is trying to find its bottom price as farmers ar...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Ratings Hit Five-Year Lows; Wheat Beats a Bearish Drum
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened week in a lackluster manner with the soy complex sinking lower, largely on weaker palm oil values and soymeal deliveries, while wheat and corn futures scratched out small gains. Trading volume was light for the day and the last day of the most recent heatw...
Market Commentary: Futures Unfazed by Heat but Barge Rates Soar; Crush Report Shows Soyoil Demand
The CBOT was mostly flat in quiet trade to end the week with traders showing little concern for a weekend of hot, dry weather for most of the crop-growing U.S. Corn and soybeans managed to find their way to modest gains on short covering and some reaction to the weather, but wheat futures ended...
Market Commentary: Sliding into Fall
It was another day of the weather and Chicago working at cross purposes. Continued heat and dryness are expected to knock corn and soybean yields lower but it was another day of losses for grains and oilseeds. There may be some profit taking ahead of the upcoming three-day holiday weekend, but...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under pressure from a good crop, however, export duties decreased to allow at least some bullish movement on the domestic market. The global prices are relatively stable, and exporters cannot afford to offer a m...
Market Commentary: Paris Contract Leads Wheat Lower; Better Conditions Pressure Corn, Soy
The CBOT was entirely red across the major ag commodities Tuesday as weak technical conditions and better than expected crop conditions pressured trader sentiment. Monday’s Crop Conditions report featured bearish surprises in that last weeks’ heatwave didn’t result in the shar...
More BRICS, Same Problems
The BRICS Group, a club of nations with the goal of tilting the international order away from the West, has invited six countries to join and make it an unhappy family of eleven. We previously noted the shortcomings of the original BRICS and the new cousins have similar genetic defects: A...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Heat, Russian Attacks
The CBOT was higher to start the day after Russia attacked more Ukrainian export and grain infrastructure in Odesa and the country’s Danube River ports. That rally was extended during the day session as the blistering hot weather over the U.S. Midwest prompted traders to add back weather...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under the pressure of a good crop, higher freight rates, and ever-growing export duties. Since most of the pricing in country is based on the export marketplace in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, some regions are af...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms on Russian Attacks, Extreme Midwest Temps
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday with another Russian attack on Ukraine’s Danube River ports and a hot, dry weather forecast for the Midwest offering support. Corn, soybeans, and KCBT wheat bounced higher off technical support while the CBOT wheat market traded either side of unchanged...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 August 2023 The Russian grain market was not following one clear trend. Partly because of the geographical spread of the country, but global factors also effect Russian markets and especially the latest developments in the Black Sea. The market is very se...
Market Commentary: Calm before the Calm
Early pattern recognition on the CBOT today ahead of tomorrow’s August WASDE report - bottom line no drama. Volume was slack, except in lean hogs, and trading ranges were muted. December corn had a trading range of 4.75 cents, which is to say it is settled science. Except for Monday, over...
Market Commentary: U.S. Weather Shifts Again; WASDE Expectations; Ethanol Margins Climb
The CBOT was mixed at midweek with pre-WASDE positioning once again driving much of the day’s activity. Corn attempted to rally on short covering and continued strength in Dalian futures, but rallies were again capped above $5 by selling pressure. Soybeans and soyoil managed to squeeze ou...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 July–4 August 2023 The Russian grain market was predominantly bearish except for corn and rye. Weak domestic currency remains one of the major factors. You would think that with higher global prices, export prices in Russian seaports and riverports would fo...
Market Commentary: Shorts Grow Cautious Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT posted a mixed day in light volume trade with preparations for the August WASDE that will come out this Friday driving much of the market action. Corn and the soy complex finished mostly higher while wheat was mixed as traders seem cautious against becoming overly short the market. Tra...
Market Commentary: Certainties No Longer Certain; Corn, Soy Lower on Midwest Rains
Wheat futures rallied to start the week on increasing conflict in the Black Sea with Ukraine targeting Russian ocean vessels and adding new uncertainties to the region’s grain trade abilities. Wheat was only the first of two major ag markets (lean hogs being the other) to end the day high...
Farm Fuel Cost Outlook
Over the past four weeks diesel prices have started to rally moving toward harvest season. The question remains whether this is temporary or a longer-term trend. From a regional perspective, Midwest distillate inventories for the week of 14 July were the highest recorded for the region s...
Market Commentary: Attacks on Russian Ports Lift Grains; Feeder Cattle Hit All Time Highs
In a twist on the recent Black Sea narratives, CBOT futures were higher overnight after Ukraine attacked Russian port infrastructure in the Crimean Peninsula. Reports came overnight that Russia’s oil export infrastructure in the Novorossiysk port had been attacked by naval drones (presume...
Market Commentary: No Gapping Day
When the close is not too far off the open, the trading range is small and the volume is light, the price must be right. Markets continued their quotidian march generally lower but in a modest way. This no doubt reflects a weather forecast that spells recovery from an otherwise dis...
Market Commentary: Weather in the Driver’s Seat; CBOT Falls Despite More Danube Attacks
August has so far not been very kind to commodity markets, though it’s not as much the month’s fault as it is the fault of improved weather forecasts. CBOT futures were sharply lower on Wednesday and the mid-week weakness came despite another Russian attack on Ukrainian grain infras...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 July 2023 The Russian grain market was predominantly bullish and a big reason was the bombing of Ukrainian Black Sea and Danube ports followed by the Africa-Russia summit in St. Petersburg where Russia was testing the future of grain trading globally in...
Market Commentary: Weather Rally Fades but Upside Risks Remain
The CBOT continued to drift lower on Friday with the fireworks from the rallies Monday and Tuesday fading on profit taking and more aggressive short selling. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal were all lower to end the week with soyoil and livestock the only bright spots among the major ag comm...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Lower on Rains, Yield Estimates
Rain across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday helped push the CBOT lower with wheat leading the way. Nothing has changed about the near-term forecast, which remains scorching hot and mostly dry across the Southern Plains and Corn Belt, but the 6-10-day forecast is mixed with be...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 July 2023 Russian farmers continue harvesting winter crops and the progress is quite good with grain crop forecasts totaling 134.5 MMT of which 86.5 MMT is wheat. Local analysts increased the forecast. The worst-case scenario is 123.5 MMT of grains with...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Doesn’t Change Bullish Backdrop
Bull markets need to be constantly “fed” with news and when that feeding slows or lapses, the rally does too. That’s largely what happened at the CBOT on Tuesday with a quiet day for fundamental news allowing markets to pull back with mild profit taking and slight corrective p...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Danube Export Doubts
Monday’s trade was all about the weekend, which was hot and dry in the U.S. Midwest and featured more attacks by Russia on Ukrainian infrastructure. That alone would have been enough to send markets into rally mode, but it was coupled with a third bullish factor – an extremely hot a...
Market Commentary: Improved August Weather Forecast Prompts Profit Taking
The CBOT pulled back heading into the weekend on profit taking and NOAA’s new August weather forecast that shows more moderate temperatures and normal rains for most of the Corn Belt and Midwest. While any forecast longer than 10-days has been highly inaccurate this summer, the latest gui...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Pause Temporarily; Cattle Post Bearish Reversal before Report
The CBOT’s weather- and Black Sea-conflict induced rally took a break on Thursday with traders reassessing both global export market conditions and the U.S. weather forecast. There is a growing sense that the immediate impacts of the Black Sea grain export corridor’s expiration have...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 July 2023 The Russian grain market was driven purely by a weak RUB which was registered from the beginning of the month. Even though the reference price dropped, the government increased the export duty for wheat probably speculating that prices will gro...
Market Commentary: Russia Leaves Black Sea Deal; Grains Lower After Two-Sided Trade
The CBOT started the day with a higher tone after Russia confirmed that it will be leaving the Black Sea export corridor agreement, which ended Monday, 17 July. The markets followed a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trading pattern and ended lower after fears of grain supply...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 July 2023 The first week of the new marketing year is gone and the market is under severe pressure due to carryover, slower exports, and multinational traders leaving the market. Farmers are not in a hurry to dump their grains at lower prices especially wi...
Market Commentary: Russian Port Attacks Send Wheat Higher; Markets Firm Ahead of WASDE
Wheat futures led the CBOT higher heading into the July WASDE after Russia launched 22 drones overnight at Ukraine’s Odesa grain terminal. Ukraine’s air defenses defeated all the drones, but two hit administrative buildings and debris from downed drones started two fires at port ter...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Russia/Ukraine conflict has again taken on an increased importance for commodity markets. Ukraine last week accused Russia of mining the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and both countries are accusing the other of planning attacks on the facility. Any event at the plant i...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Harvest Delays, Quality Issues; Cattle Fall on Quiet Cash Trade
The CBOT had an old-school opening this morning with no overnight trade as markets were closed Tuesday for the U.S. Independence Day holiday. That led to a bit more volatility in the morning’s open but nothing that really sparked much angst. Soybeans and corn saw relatively quiet trading...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 June 2023 Russian Grain Union is estimating the Russian grain crop at 130-140 MMT and export potential at 55 MMT. The Union is not expecting a record crop again and is estimating a 10 percent decline. A pessimistic scenario discussed by some domestic ana...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Shocks Still Drive Markets; Crop Conditions Worsen Despite Rains
The CBOT was mixed in moderate trading volume heading into the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Tuesday (note that CBOT markets and WPI’s offices will be closed for the day). The shock of Friday’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports continues to reverberate through markets with corn re...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Investment Bank will provide a €50 million loan for the construction of a new grain terminal in the Bulgarian port of Varna. The project investor is Logistic Center Varna AED -which is part of one of Bulgaria’s largest grain traders, the Buildcom Grou...
Market Commentary: Major Surprises in Acreage, Grain Stocks Reports; Cattle Hit New Highs
USDA’s highly anticipated June Acreage estimates and quarterly Grain Stocks reports did not fail to live up to their hype and brought several significant surprises on Friday. This article will detail the reports and their implications in the next paragraphs, but in summary, corn planted a...
Market Commentary: Calm Before Tomorrow’s Storm
It has been a messy, volatile period. Spooked by drought, then reassured by showers, only to be spooked again by instability in Russia. Still there are reasons to be more bullish than the market has shown over the past several days. Rains in the western Corn Belt are moving eastward and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 June 2023 Russian analysts cut previous grain production forecasts by 2.3 MMT – down to 134 MMT - due to weather conditions, especially in Siberia and Volga Valley. The wheat production forecast dropped from 88 MMT to 86.8 MMT, barley forecast from...
Market Commentary: Wetter Weather Drives Turnaround Tuesday; Traders Position for Stocks and Acres Data
WPI readers will not be shocked to hear that the updated weather forecasts, which include more rain for the Midwest, were the primary force driving CBOT futures lower on Tuesday. Tuesday saw scattered showers over the Northern Plains and parts of Kansas and Oklahoma while a larger system brough...
Market Commentary: Crop Conditions Plunge Lower; Futures Mixed to Start Week; Record Cow-Calf Returns Forecast
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders waiting to see what USDA’s Crop Conditions report would show. Row crops featured two-sided trade after weekend rains brought some relief to many parts of the Midwest but skipped most of Illinois and Missouri. The forecast is gradually shif...
Market Commentary: EPA Volumes Sink Soyoil; Grains Rally on Crop Conditions
Just one day after this analyst wrote that grain futures were likely to take a break from their rally amid overbought technical conditions, futures extended their rallies based on worsening U.S. crop conditions. The USDA’s crop conditions data yesterday was bullish corn, soybeans, and spr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 June 2023 According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, as of 5 June, total acreage of spring grains and legumes planted reached 29 Mha including: wheat – 13.5 Mha, barley – 7 Mha, corn – 2.5 Mha, and rice – 159,400 ha. ...
Market Commentary: A Pause Amid the Weather Market Storm
Last week’s CBOT trade rightly featured significant rallies as the U.S. weather forecast remains stubbornly hot and dry in both near- and long-term forecasts but today’s trade featured a pause amid the drought-concern rally. Futures were somewhat overextended after last week’s...
Market Commentary: More Weather Premium
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. New crop futures traded higher again today as there is still no improvement in a weather pattern that compelled USDA to drop the share of corn and soybeans rated Good/Excellent to lows not seen in four years a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 May – 2 June 2023 Russian farmers are in the final stage of spring planting. Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of early June, 50.7 Mha were planted which is 92 percent of the forecast. A year ago, the planted area was 49.1 Mha. Spring grains...
Market Commentary: Mixed Bag
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. It was a modest volume day with trading initially unclear about what direction to take. Corn opened higher, traded both sides but ended down. Soybeans traded both sides but ended lower. Wheat moved higher and...
Market Commentary: Old Crop Futures Hit Decision Point
The CBOT traded a volatile day with overnight weakness leading to a selling spike as the day session started. That weakness, however, was quickly met with end-user buying, bottom-picking, and short-covering that boosted spot corn and soy complex futures while adding strength to wheat markets mo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22 – 26 May 2023 Russian farmers continue their spring planting campaign. The Minister of Agriculture reports that around 33.2 Mha have been planted out of the 57 Mha scheduled. Also, 93 percent of winter crops are in good condition but in certain areas winter...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trade Reflects Long Term Bearish Outlook
The CBOT started the week on a bearish note with expectations for strong planting progress across the U.S. and sluggish demand weighing on markets. Friday’s CFTC report that showed continued fund short selling in major ag commodities also helped keep markets on the defensive to start the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15 – 19 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish. Russia’s position during negotiations of the UN grain corridor extension was not particularly strong and all sentiments were in favor of an extension, even if only for sixty days. Export dut...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm as Wheat Posts Reversal; Soy Complex Plays Defense
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and wheat firming with increased short covering and buying interest amid oversold technical conditions and recent selloff lows. Growing concerns about Russia’s refusal to allow grain export vessels into one Ukrainian port also helped put a bid under...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Renewed; Fund Selling Hammers CBOT
The CBOT feature one-direction trade at mid-week – lower – with funds continuing to rapidly exit long positions in the grain markets and/or pile into newly profitable short positions. While technical/fund selling drove most of the day’s price action, bearish fundamental factor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8 – 12 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish with the volume of trade miniscule because of traditional May holidays in Russia. A parade in Moscow was held irrespective of the weather or geopolitical situation giving the Russian people another...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Plunge Lower; Corn Tests $5 Again; Wheat Mixed on Varied Outlook
Weak macroeconomic markets and good planting progress in Monday’s Crop Progress report sent the CBOT sharply lower on Tuesday. Corn and soybeans led the way lower with oilseed breaking technical support in early trade and subsequently falling 25-36 cents by the closing bell. Weakness in s...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russian sources indicate the country plans to extend the Black Sea grain export corridor agreement for another 60 days starting 18 May 2023. The EU Parliament has extended duty-free trade with Ukraine for another year starting 6 June 2023. Drought remains a major conce...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is reduced stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area. However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Okl...
Market Commentary: WASDE Helps Move Market Along
There were no major surprises in USDA’s May WASDE report, but there was enough to push up the volume in trading. Larger production and ending stocks are the result of higher prices in recent years. Those will be coming down. USDA’s forecast for global wheat ending stocks was 1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 1–5 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remain bearish. Russia is struggling with low prices for grains for domestic farmers and is not receiving sufficient revenue through export duties. Moreover, 1–9 May was a holiday season in Russia mak...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission has places restrictions on the import of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed into five member states (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) through 5 June 2023 to ease supply issues and local price depressions. The ruling allows...
Market Commentary: Mid-Session Reversal Except for New Crop
Corn, wheat, and soybeans traveled in the red for much of the morning trading before wheat turned higher and old crop corn and soybean contracts reversed losses. No doubt weighing on wheat is tensions with Russia, the crops top global supplier, while economic uncertainty keeps animal proteins s...
Market Commentary: Kremlin Drone Story Sparks CBOT Short-Covering Rally
The war in Ukraine continues to be a major influence for the CBOT trade with Russia’s overnight claims it shot down two Ukrainian drones near the Kremlin offering support for ag futures on Wednesday. Russia has described the event as a foiled assassination attempt on President Putin but t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 24 – 28 April 2023 Russia’s grain market remained bearish. Across the country, grains lost value except for Siberia which is still stable and even slightly bullish. However, Siberia is not going to maintain better prices as overall trends bot...
Market Commentary: Crop Fundamentals Play Second Fiddle to Risk Adjustments
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday with any attempt at a rally quickly finding eager and sustained selling pressure. There was no real fundamental catalyst for the day’s selling from an agricultural perspective, rather the day’s weakness stemmed from widespread risk-off trade ami...
Overstating War Impacts
The Russians and the G-7 traded charges blaming each other for causing global food insecurity. EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski finally framed the situation correctly by saying the war has caused market distortions. Global trade in wheat and soybeans has continued to expand. Cor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained predominantly bearish, but the bear is weaker and slower now. Trading is a tug of war with farmers keeping stocks and they are in no hurry to sell for less. Export duties will dictate the trends in the nea...
Market Commentary: Technical, Fund Selling Drive CBOT Lower to Start the Week
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week amid a combination of technically driven and fund position liquidation selling. After the charts turned weak at the end of last week, funds were already starting to lighten up on long positions and continued that trend with more vigor on Monday. Recen...
Russian Politics of the Grain Corridor
Inspections of Ukrainian grain moving through the Black Sea corridor have been off and on this week as Russia briefly stopped processing them. In less than a month, Russia must decide whether to allow the UN-brokered deal to continue. Moscow is insisting reauthorization is conditioned on the We...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained unmistakably bearish; even RUB based trading indicators softened in the ports for all grains. While dollar FOB wheat prices remained almost unchanged for wheat, barley and corn quotations softened. The k...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Planting Dealy Worries, Black Sea Export Concerns
The CBOT firmed to start the week with new crop futures strengthening on a cooler, wetter planting outlook for the U.S. summer crops. Funds were again on the long side of the market after last week’s late-week gains and supported values on Monday. Concerns about planting delays pushed cor...
Placating Eastern Europe; Nationalism Not Ideology
Placating Eastern Europe Slovakia joined Poland and Hungary in blocking grain imports from Ukraine, and Bulgaria is contemplating it. Brussels initially threatened the miscreants for breaching the EU’s trade policies. However, the expanding boycott caused a further examination and instead...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on China Buying, Russia Threats; Cattle Pull Back from Highs
The Goldman roll has dominated this week’s trading action and pressured May futures in grains. Friday concluded the roll and bull spreading emerged that carried corn and wheat futures sharply higher and helped soybean firm from earlier weakness. Additional saber rattling from Russia about...
Market Commentary: Mixed Feelings
The market opened much as the overnight closed but then things shifted for some contracts. Wheat was understandably down on chances for precipitation in some droughty areas but there was less apparent reasoning in other commodities. Despite closing lower today, corn and soybean valu...
Market Commentary: Russia Says Export Deal “Is Not Good”; Cattle Prices Hit New All-Time Highs
More Russian complaints about the Black Sea export corridor agreement overnight helped push wheat higher in heavy volume. Wheat was the only market to see significant trade, however, and the other major ag markets drifted listlessly in low volume. The Kremlin said the outlook for the export dea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish the first week of April aligning with export duty behavior and local currency depreciation. For a few days prices remained stable thanks to domestic currency depreciation but the government was qui...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Futures Hit New Highs After Record Trade Last Week
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the April WASDE on Tuesday, though the soy complex lagged the grain markets’ gains. Wheat futures were higher after Russia threatened last Friday to essentially ignore the Black Sea grain export corridor deal unless barriers to its own exports are r...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 March 2023 International traders, after one full year of war in Ukraine, have finally made up their minds to leave Russia as the business environment in the country is probably one of the most unpredictable in the world. Bunge was one of the first larg...
OPEC Cuts Quotas to Match Actual Production and Establish Price Floor
On Sunday, OPEC + announced voluntary cuts in oil production that will amount to 1.657 million barrels per day (bpd). Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, Gabon, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman, and Kazakhstan are all planning on production cutbacks starting in May and are planned for the remainder of 20...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Weather Concerns, Acres and Stocks Expectations
The CBOT was green across the board on Monday, though trading volume remained lighter than normal. Traders were focused on continued news from Russia that, even if it doesn’t limit wheat exports, it will seek to raise the export price of its products. That, combined with position evening...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
Wheat Futures Up 30 Cents on Russia Export Ban Rumors
CBOT and KCBT wheat futures are sharply higher in early morning trade after news broke that Russia may seek to suspend wheat and sunflower oil exports amid low prices. The Russian government is reportedly considering a temporary halt to shipments in an effort to support local prices. The Russia...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023 The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory terms. Ukraine announced a 120-day extension while Russian officials claim the extension is only valid for another 60 days. The Russian sid...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Sinks Wheat; Markets Brace for Wednesday Fed Meeting
The CBOT started the week with some risk-off trade after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal to extend the Black Sea export corridor agreement over the weekend. The two countries are still arguing over the details of the agreement, but the major takeaway was that Ukraine can still ship grain in r...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Lack of Export Deal; Soybeans Fall Despite 25-MMT Argy Crop Prediction
Corn was the upside leader overnight with heavy volume kicking off Friday’s trade date. Three days of export sales to China plus rumors (that USDA confirmed later in the morning) of a fourth set of sales were bullish and helped put funds and commercials in a buying mood. Wheat futures con...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 March 2023 Grain markets lost all hope for any bullishness due to a global bearish mood, export duties, and the upcoming spring planting campaign which requires cash. The grain export potential of Russia this season is tremendous. Sanctions are n...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off SVB Shakiness
Except for the livestock markets, ag futures were broadly higher on Tuesday with investor and trader confidence returning after the weekend shock to the banking sector. While Monday’s trade was weaker and heavily influenced by the macro-market panic selling relating to the Silicon Valley...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 February – 3 March 2023 Russian grain markets maintained previous price levels and in certain segments were even slightly bullish particularly in top grade milling wheat. Low quality milling wheat and feed wheat are abundant and have been bearish for...
Market Commentary: Bear Scent
This should be the window for U.S. export sales, but it has been strangely quiet. There were rumors of a Chinese purchase this week, but nothing has been confirmed. If exports falter and U.S. farmers produce a bumper crop this summer, the surplus stocks overhang will plunge prices. Speculators...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 - 24 February 2023 Russia had one day off last week which was an Army Day. Although the business week was one day shorter it did not stop Russian grains, and especially wheat, from losing ground. With a record crop and winning several international tenders,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 - 17 February 2023 The Russian domestic grain market was unmistakably bearish. A large crop, increasing export duties, relatively stable domestic currency, and a slower export pace have all contributed. Of course, international sanctions were introduced, a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 - 10 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained relatively stable. Feed wheat remains more expensive than barley, corn trading is animated and is slightly bullish on the domestic market but the key driver for corn demand is the export market. Exp...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The renewal of the Ukraine export corridor deal is seen as increasingly in jeopardy as rhetoric and military resource offers from Western officials continue to escalate. Analysts speculate this could prompt Russia to look for a way to retaliate on the global economy, especia...
Market Commentary: Russian Missiles Spook CBOT; Wheat Posts Bullish Day
On Friday, Russia did what the February WASDE could not, excite the grain markets. Early Friday, a Russian missile(s) headed towards Romania (a NATO country) and prompted Romanian fighter jets to scramble to intercept them. The missiles are reported to have been 22 miles outside of Romanian air...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 January - 3 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable. The only commodity which slightly recovered is barley, but this is the exception rather than the rule. It is a record crop in Russia this season. Corn is under pressure from Ukrainia...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 -27 January 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable and slightly bearish. The feature of the week was feed barley equaling feed wheat in price. Corn slightly depreciated under pressure from Ukraine which has been exporting massive amounts of th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt has reportedly secured a long-term contract with Germany to buy wheat from the European nation, though details on the agreement are sparse. Russia’s total wheat planted area for 2023 is projected to reach 29.05 Mha, down from 29.468 Mha seeded in 2022. Roma...
Market Commentary: Macro and Russians
After a brutal Monday, futures have been clawing back gains the past few days. Trading on Thursday was helped along by a U.S. Q4 2022 GDP number that pleased outside markets. Consumer spending underpinned a 2.9 percent increase in GDP, though there remain warnings of another shoe to drop. That...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 - 20 January 2023 Grain prices remained relatively stable and are most likely to remain stable in the near term. The key factor creating such a “lazy” market is a record high grain crop. Farmers realize that exports are slow and domestic miller...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 - 13 January 2023 The Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) has adjusted preliminary crop size numbers for the 2022 crop. Overall, grain production numbers were adjusted upwards reaching 153.83 MMT versus the previous 150.985 MMT. Wheat production was adjuste...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 - 6 January 2023 With a historic grain crop and the upcoming Russian Orthodox Christmas holidays, traders seem to have taken a winter break which may last the first two first weeks of January rather than one week because in Russia the old new year is celebr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Germany’s winter wheat area is estimated at 2.8 Mha for 2023/24, down 1.9 percent. Winter barley was seeded across 1.3 Mha this year, a 5.1 percent increase. Ukrainian officials are citing concern for the hardiness of winter crops (most notably wheat) as an unusually w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 - 23 December 2022 Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced a record year-end grain production of 159.5 MMT in bunker weight which is up 32.6 MMT from 2021. The Ministry forecasts the final grain production number after dockage at 150 MMT with wheat produ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 – 16 December 2022 Russian grain markets remain bearish with many factors putting pressure on the market including but not limited to export duties, a relatively strong local currency, a record crop, and competition with Ukrainian wheat and corn in t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 - 9 December 2022 Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia is revamping its positions on grains and oilseeds markets thanks to a record crop, high demand for wheat, and other agricultural commodities. Sanctions, increased insurance, and war risks have had...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Flips Recent Trends; Corn, Wheat Rally After Russia Attacks Odessa Port
The CBOT essentially abandoned its existing trends on Monday and volatility was pronounced, especially in the soy complex. For the past few weeks, soybeans and soymeal have been trending higher while soyoil collapsed under the EPA’s new biofuel mandates. That changed almost without warnin...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 Novermber – 2 December 2022 With the UN humanitarian corridor back in place, Russia is reportedly procrastinating with inspections in the Black Sea thus creating a line of international vessels in the Bosporus straight. This is causing Ukraine and the world probl...
Market Commentary: RVOs Sink Soyoil; Funds Hasten Corn, Wheat Selling; Farm Income Rises
The impacts and implications of the EPA’s newest renewable fuel obligations continue to ripple through the CBOT markets. Soyoil futures sold off sharply again on Friday while the soybean market managed to squeeze out a small gain for the day. While the EPA mandates were essentially neutra...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 November 2022 The feature of the week remains the same – extension of the UN humanitarian Black Sea corridor under UN auspices with Turkey being the guarantor of the transaction. While Ukrainians are complaining about terrible delays with Russian inspections a...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Bolsters Corn Futures; Wheat Selloff Accelerates
Corn was the upside leader for the CBOT in a generally quiet day of post-Thanksgiving trading. The Export Sales report offered support for corn but did little for the other major ag commodities. Soybeans traded both sides of unchanged and ended slightly higher while wheat sold off sharply headi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 November 2022 Russia continues to harvest a record crop - over 150 MMT currently. Even more interesting are current Russian stocks and carryover. Russian Statistics Agency reported that as of 1 November, Russia’s grain stocks are 42.6 MMT, up 31 percent from 2...
Market Commentary: Erase Part of Yesterday
As forewarned in yesterday’s commentary, “if there is an extension of the corridor agreement, expect U.S. wheat to tumble hard and fast.” The missile that hit Poland turned out to possibly be an errant output of Ukrainian air defense. Plus, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Serg...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 November 2022 Planting Update Russia’s winter crop is planted, however, due to adverse weather conditions farmers failed to plant about 1 Mha showing only 17.5 Mha versus 18.1 Mha a year ago. In addition to poor weather conditions, farmers who realized Russia h...
Market Commentary: The Wins of War
Negotiations are ongoing between the UN, Turkey, and Russia for extending the Black Sea grain corridor agreement beyond its scheduled expiration this coming Saturday. The Russians are demanding the removal of Western financial hurdles to their own trade, and the U.S. and EU have reportedly prov...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower on Fund Selling; Macro Markets Sharply Higher on CPI Data
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday as fund selling and position liquidation accelerated. The November WASDE did not create much of an additional bullish outlook and funds, which were already in a selling mood, decided to exit long positions. Soybeans were the downside leader on COVID-19 con...
WASDE Wheat
USDA left U.S. wheat exports unchanged at 775 million bushels - with offsetting changes for White wheat and Durum. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 571 million, the lowest level since 2007/08. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchang...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Few Surprises; Wheat Lower as Fund Sells; Cattle Rally Stalled
The November WASDE was largely in-line with expectations and USDA indeed raised the 2022 U.S. corn and soybean yields. Despite the larger crops, carry-out remains tight for both commodities and should be long-term supportive. Soybeans rallied for the day, as much because of news of 462 KMT of e...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 October - 4 November 2022 Russia’s grain harvest continues and has set a record of 150 MMT. Russia’s wheat belt, Krasnodar area, also set a new wheat production record of 10.7 MMT. The Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 7 November, Russia produced...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Sharply Lower in Pre-WASDE Trade; Soy Complex Weaker on Profit Taking
It’s Election Day in the U.S. and the day before the November WASDE. Markets tend to trade small ranges before the elections and the USDA’s report, but today’s trade was unusual as corn and wheat, rather than hunkering down, traded wide-ranging days with sharp losses. Fund sel...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies with Energy Markets; Corn, Wheat Firm in Late-Week Trade
The CBOT ended the week with gains across the board as stronger energy and palm oil markets supported sharp rallies in soyoil and soybeans. The soy complex has been the surprising leader of the CBOT during a week that, at its outset, looked like it would feature major rallies in wheat and corn...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Strong U.S.Dollar, Weak Macroeconomic Markets
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as the impacts of Russia’s return to the Ukraine export corridor agreement and the sharp rally in the U.S. dollar worked against futures. Corn and wheat continued their selloffs and retreated to values near where they ended last week, while soybeans s...
Market Commentary: Russia Taketh and Russia Giveth; But Volatility Remains
What Russia taketh away, Russia apparently giveth back. Just three days after leaving the Ukraine export corridor deal, Russia reversed its weekend decision and re-joined the export agreement. Apparently, President Putin made the decision and agreed to cooperate with the UN, Turkey, and (to a f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24-28 October 2022 Planting Update Winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest in the past five years. As of 31 October, winter crops were planted over 16.3 Mha which is 85 percent of the forecast and about 2 Mha behind past year. It is already cle...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Lead CBOT Rally on China Policy, Brazil Protests
The CBOT rallied for a second straight day, but this time it was soybeans leading the way. The oilseed market moved higher after rumors surfaced that China could be considering ending its zero-tolerance policy for COVID-19, a move that would boost food, fuel, and soybean demand in the country...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA region grain importers are going to suffer greatly if the Russian action ending the Ukraine grain export corridor continues. Ukraine says that the end to the corridor will affect 218 ships --- 95 that are wait...
Market Commentary: Russia Exits Ukraine Export Deal, Wheat Rallies 50 Cents, Corn, Soy Follow
Russian officials announced over the weekend that the country will end its participation in the so-called “export corridor deal” made between the U.N., Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia. The move was in response to weekend drone strikes on a Russian vessel in a Crimean port, which Russia...
OECD Ag Statement; Polls on Agritech and Putin
OECD Ag Statement Thirty-eight agriculture ministers from OECD member countries plus a dozen or so more will meet later this week in Paris to discuss: Building Sustainable Agriculture & Food Systems in a Changing Environment: Shared Challenges, Transformative Solutions. The discussion prece...
European Market Analysis
Ukraine Export Corridor Update The biggest news in European and Black Sea grain markets this week is Russia’s announcement that it will exit the UN/Ukraine/Russia grain “export corridor” deal effective immediately. WPI and other analysts had long suspected Russia would not ren...
Market Commentary: Consensus in Play
After four days of trading this week and thousands of contracts trading hands, as of today’s close, corn is down 0.292 percent, soybeans are down 0.949 percent, and wheat has lost 1.4 percent. And it could all zero out by tomorrow’s close. With little new to factor in, markets are t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 October 2022 Planting Update Russian winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest for the past five years. As of 21 October, winter crops were planted over 15.8 Mha which is 83.2 percent of the forecast and around 2 Mha behind last year. Centr...
Market Commentary: Not Pretty
Though they closed higher, volume was down in corn and soybeans and wheat shaved off some more excess value. The truth is there is just not much to move the market right now. The lower value of the dollar plus rising equities and oil provides some outside support but the fundamentals are stable...
Diesel Inventories at Near Record Lows
Diesel fuel inventories are now at historic lows. As of the week ending 14 October, there were about 25 days of coverage from weekly ending stocks. That’s down from 39 days during 2020 and 2021 over the COVID period, and down from 34 days during the pre-pandemic 2017-2019 period. The day...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 October 2022 Winter Crop Planting Russian winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest in the last five years. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for Russia this fall. Expected acreage of winter crops may be as low as 16.5 Mha dropping by...
Market Commentary: Grains Mixed to Start Week; Livestock Markets Rally Sharply
The CBOT ended mixed in low volume to start the week. The only market to see substantial action was soyoil as a bullish NOPA report and Russian attacks on Ukrainian sunflower oil storage facilities created some buying interest. Wheat and soybeans traded both sides of unchanged in quiet volume w...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends on Down Note After Export Sales Disappoint
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week with corn, soybeans, wheat, and both cattle contracts all posting losses by the closing bell. The only real gainer was the lean hog market, where futures rallied to triple-digit gains on relative strength in the cash market. Trading volume was light acr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. wheat production based by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million. However, first quarter total disappearance is the lowest since 1983/84 - wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 October 2022 Russian winter crop planting is behind schedule at only around 50 percent of the forecast and 1 Mha behind last year at the end of September. The Ministry of Agriculture already forecasts next spring planting to reach 82.2 Mha which is up 200,000 ha. The...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Sink on Pre-WASDE Position Adjusting; Soybeans Firm on China Buying Rumors
The CBOT pared Monday’s gains on Tuesday as traders and funds finalized preparations and positions for the October WASDE report on Wednesday. Wheat saw the largest losses but still traded an inside day on the charts, thanks to Monday’s 50+ cent gains. Corn futures pulled back as wel...
Market Commentary: Renewed Russian Attacks Send Wheat Sharply Higher; Corn, Soybeans Follow in pre-WASDE Trade
The CBOT rallied to start the week with wheat posting 55+ cent gains to lead the way. The catalyst for the day’s rally was Russia’s renewed and aggressive shelling of Ukrainian cities, including the capitol of Kyiv. The aggression is casting serious doubts on the already shaky poten...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 30 September wheat production showed 101.9 MMT of bunker weight wheat versus 74.5 MMT a year ago. The average wheat yield increased from 2.81 MT/ha to 3.61 MT/ha. Harvesting was complete on 28.2...
Market Commentary: Holding Pattern
Two-sided, narrow trading continues as uncertainty competes with certainty over where true value is headed. In an almost hands off manner, soybeans failed to trade at its usual 25-cent minimum daily spread, and corn barely broke a 10-cent range. There is plenty of macro suspense – the Rus...
Market Commentary: Two-Sided CBOT Trade Amid Macro-Market Volatility
The CBOT saw two-sided trade on Wednesday that was again heavily influenced by macro markets. Early weakness took corn and soybean futures below major technical support points, only to have those losses pared or reversed when the Bank of England announced a bond-buying program to stabilize the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 22 September wheat production was 99.9 MMT of bunker weight wheat versus 72.9 MMT a year ago. The average wheat yield increased from 2.8 MT/ha to 3.6 MT/ha. Harvesting has been completed on 27.4...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Again on Failed Macro Market Rally; Livestock Futures Selloff Accelerates
The CBOT and U.S. stocks both seemed ready to rally in early trade on Tuesday and both markets broadly marked strong gains in the morning. By early afternoon, however, U.S. stocks had pared gains and fallen into negative territory, and that weakness and a continued “risk off” attitu...
Market Commentary: Wheat Edges Higher as Putin Signals War Escalations; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Harvest Weather
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week with wheat futures continuing to see support from the pending votes in Ukraine about whether four regions will join Russia. Moreover, signals from Russia’s President Putin indicate the country is preparing a significant escalation in the war effort, which wi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 September 2022 As of 15 September, Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 132.3 MMT versus 99.4 MMT a year ago, of which 96.4 MMT is wheat in bunker weight, 23 MMT is barley, and 780,800 MT is corn. These numbers are t...
Market Commentary: Russia’s Annexation Effort Creates Turnaround Tuesday at CBOT
The CBOT rallied sharply on Tuesday with Russia’s actions in Ukraine again at the forefront of the market’s mind. Russia is trying to annex four parts of Ukraine this week and implications that it is building troop reserves and resources suggest no peaceful end to the war is coming...
Market Commentary: Wheat Grinds Higher on Uncertain Ukraine Export Outlook; Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week amid a general lack of fresh news. Corn and soybeans both drifted lower in quiet trade and extended Tuesday’s pullback and reversal, respectively. Wheat futures pushed higher as the Ukraine export corridor agreement remains in jeopardy while U.S. basis level...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 September 2022 As of 7 September, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 125 MMT of which 88.2 MMT is wheat, 21.2 MMT is barley, and 35,000 MT corn (the corn harvest has just started). These numbers are the weight co...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed After Dollar Rallies on Inflation Data
With the September WASDE now past, the CBOT largely entered consolidation mode on Tuesday with a renewed focus on weather as yields are finalized, export demand, and, of yeah, inflation. August inflation was down from July but above expectations, which threw macroeconomic markets into a tizzy a...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the domestic wheat crop in 2022/23 in unchanged in the September WASDE. The projected 2022/23 seasonal average farm price is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $9.00 – which is still a record. The estimate for global supplies was increase by 3.6 million tons to 1,059.6 m...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Russia/Turkey Export Discussion, Falling USD; Bullish WASDE Looms
The CBOT turned higher on the final full day of trading before the September WASDE is released at Noon ET on Monday. Wheat futures led the way as the market is increasingly nervous heading into the weekend after Russian President Putin disparaged the Ukrainian export corridor agreement and set...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Russian Export Comments; Corn, Soybeans Reject Early Rally
The CBOT mostly drifted lower in lackluster trade overnight until Russia’s President Putin made comments that hinted the country has few intentions of extending the Ukrainian grain export corridor agreement. President Putin did not explicitly say that his country won’t extend its ag...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: August–2 September 2022 Grain markets were volatile. While global markets remain bullish, Russian traders are still speculating and expecting a bigger bear. This, of course, is possible at the early stage of the game and especially with a forecast for a record crop...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Dry Weather; Argentine “Soy Dollar” Pressures Soy Complex
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with a weekend of dry weather offering support to the corn market and sparking a 10-cent rally in that commodity. Conversely, soybean futures were under pressure from Argentina’s now-confirmed “soy dollar” that is intended to increase farme...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues with grain production, as of 25 August, at 78.9 MMT which is up 24.8 percent from last year (63.2 MMT). Overall grains and legumes were harvested from 27.6 Mha averaging 3.82 MT/ha producing 105.2 MMT of grains. Rus...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Surprises and Questions Linger Going Forward
The CBOT was strictly focused on the August WASE in Friday’s trade. Price action before the USDA’s noon report featured quiet, weaker spread trade and wheat fell 11-17 cents while corn and soybean futures pushed higher. The report itself was within the range of pre-report estimates,...
Market Commentary: Hogs Post New Highs; Soy Complex Remains Volatile; Corn Pares Gains on Bearish WASDE Fears
The CBOT started the day sharply higher with support from outside markets, which rallied in celebration of the July inflation data. U.S. inflation slowed in July and was viewed as an encouraging sign that the Fed’s interest rate moves are working to control price increases. Despite early...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 – 29 July 2022 Russia’s harvesting campaign continues. The latest forecast for wheat production in Russia is 90 MMT. Wheat exports are expected to beat all previous records and may exceed 42.5 MMT with overall grain exports estimated at 55.4 MMT. However, m...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Leads Soy Complex Higher; Spring Wheat Yields Pressure Futures
The CBOT was mixed in light-volume trading at mid-week with most of the market’s attention focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve and its interest rate decision. The Fed raised its target interest rate by 75 bps as expected and reassured of its commitment to return inflation to near 2 percen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 July 2022 The major development was without a doubt the UN Agreement unblocking Ukrainian ports followed by Russian missiles bombing Odessa port. The agreement was made to help the world with food and to stabilize prices. That’s why the UN was involved in this...
Market Commentary: Weather Premium
In an otherwise benign market situation, there were solid gains today in the grain and oilseed pits. This was in part out of a recognition that U.S. crop ratings are declining, and more unhelpful weather is on the way. It didn’t help that Russia first bombed port structures in Odess...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Russia Blows Up Export Deal - Again
The CBOT was sharply higher after Friday’s agreement between Russia and Ukraine regarding a grain export corridor in the Black Sea was blown up – literally – one day later by Russian shelling of the Port of Odessa. The export agreement pressured futures on Friday and the weeke...
Market Commentary: Deal with the Devil
The announced deal with Russia was a major force on the market today. The quad (Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, the UN) signed an agreement providing a possible pathway for Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports. The deal means that 22 MMT Ukrainian grain and oilseeds could be exported via the Black Sea...
Market Commentary: Rain Makes Grain, Maybe
Markets opened sharply lower with a mid-session effort at a comeback that wasn’t sustainable. The speculators for the most part have evaporated but there may still be too much stock in a crop saving weather reversal. The pendulum tends to over-swing and today’s IGC report reinforces...
Market Commentary: Favorable Weather Pressures CBOT; Hogs Extend Rally on Cash Market Strength
Weather continues to drive the CBOT price action with more rains forecast for the western Corn Belt through the end of July and into August pressuring summer row crops. Corn and soybeans settled lower for the day, and both are testing technical support on the charts at a time when funds are typ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 July 2022 While the world is watching several rounds of negotiations focused on unblocking Ukrainian Black Sea ports, Russia continues exporting grain on business-as-usual terms predominantly to “friendly” countries including Iran, Egypt, Turkey, Syria,...
Surprise ITC Vote on UAN Fertilizer Tariffs, Executive Order on Rail Labor Dispute
Today, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) voted not to impose antidumping (AD) duties on UAN from Russia and Trinidad and Tobago (see prior coverage from 10 June here). This is a surprise outcome; in June the Department of Commerce ruled that UAN exports were unfairly subsidized and...
Market Commentary: CBOT Caps Volatile Week with Quiet Day; Weather Increasingly Important
After a week of stunning volatility, the CBOT ended Friday with quiet trade that saw summer row crops firm while the wheat selloff continued, though in muted fashion. The USDA’s July WASDE wasn’t exactly bearish, but funds are growing tired of holding commodities amid the lack of a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 4-8 July 2022 Russia’s harvest continues showing good results thus supporting an optimistic forecast for wheat production during the 2022/23 season which has just started. Rostov Oblast, which is one of the largest producers and exporters of wheat, is expecting a re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Reversal Rally on Weather, Pre-WASDE Positioning
The CBOT rally that started on Wednesday continued into Friday as traders bought back short positions and added slight length to positions heading into the weekend. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to favor hotter, drier weather into August, which prompted most of this week’s recover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 27 June-1 July 2022 Russia continued harvesting grains and it seems like the 2022 crop will be very close to a record. Russian Grain Union is expecting 84 MMT of grains according to Akradiy Zlochevsky, the head of the Union. The most recent forecasts showed 122 MMT of gr...
4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol
Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasting the total to be roughly equal to 2019, prior to COVID. A few factors are at play for increased car travel: after two years of...
Market Commentary: Some Tweaks but Bearish Weather
Trading was mostly lower before USDA released its Acreage and Stocks reports at noon eastern time today. The reports could have been market movers but much of what they said was already expected to some degree. Once released, they confirmed the bearish tone that was already in play but was poss...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 20-24 June 2022 Russia launched harvesting in the Southern Federal District as well as in seized and annexed Ukrainian Crimea. Other temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, which include parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Lugansk, will be harvesting in a si...
Market Commentary: OVERSOLD
Markets remained under pressure today amid the scare of a recession and a drop in demand. The fear is somewhat overstated in grains and oilseeds since recessions tend to impact banks, manufacturers, and consumer discretionary industries - not so much non-discretionary items like food. Moreover,...
Gutsy USTR; Inflation Beats Exports; Ruble Hell
Gutsy USTR USTR Katherine Tai is in an interagency battle over whether to lift tariffs on China to try and stem inflation, and she’s not backing down in her opposition to such a move. Yesterday she told Congress that, “The China tariffs are, in my view, a significant piece of...
Market Commentary: Technicals Are Breaking Down
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with a collapsing crude oil market and sharp selloffs in European commodity markets pressuring values. Tuesday’s Crop Progress report failed to offer much bullish influence for prices and new crop corn and soybeans pulled back. Wheat attempted to bou...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for slightly lower ending stocks of global wheat. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low. Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production mor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 30 May – 3 June 2022 Russian markets remained bearish, however in certain geographical areas prices were stagnant where sellers are playing a wait and see game. Interestingly, in Siberia wheat depreciated dramatically. In the export market, better margins are attra...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Higher on Spread Trade, Commercial Demand; Wheat Falls Ahead of Russia-Turkey Talks
Non-Russia fundamentals were finally at the forefront of the CBOT on Tuesday with corn and soybean futures rallying on strong commercial demand and bull spreading. Wheat futures pulled back and posted 20-cent losses as Russia and Turkey prepare for what most (including WPI) expect to be unfruit...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rally as Russia Blows Up Hopes for Export Corridor
Over the weekend, Russia intensified its offensive in eastern Ukraine and bombed a Cargill-owned export facility in southern Ukraine. The export facility formerly shipped some 1 MMT of sunflower oil annually. The heightened attacks and export facility bombing cast serious doubt about Russia&rsq...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower as Ukraine Export Corridor Talks Continue; EPA Releases 2022 Biofuel Mandates
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week with cattle and soyoil the only major markets to post gains. China is on its Dragon Boat holiday, which kept markets quiet as few developments in the cash market were expected. USDA’s report of old crop corn sales to unknown destinations offered s...
Flailing on Inflation; Japan’s Beef Craving; Incongruous Messaging
Flailing on Inflation Many months after inflation began eating into pocketbooks, the Biden Administration is on a full court press to try and address the problem. When it comes to food inflation, there is little that can be done. It simply costs more to grow, process, and ship product. When it...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Long Liquidation, Ukraine Export Rumors; Hogs Rally as Shanghai Ends Lockdowns
The CBOT attempted to stabilize overnight and in early-morning trade on Wednesday, but headlines from the Black Sea and persistent long liquidation pushed grains sharply lower for the second straight day. Soybeans found support from old and new crop export sales to China, but gains were limited...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 May 2022 Russian weather forecasting center chief Roman Wilfand is predicting a good grains and oilseeds crop this season. Cool temperatures in May are not critical as long as there is sufficient moisture in the soil. This season temperatures were mild and there wer...
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
Market Commentary: Truth Telling and Caution
An overly cautious market let go of the tease that Russia might negotiate the exit of Ukrainian grain. Vladimir Putin cannot abide the UN’s wishes because it would betray his contention that it is Western sanctions that are causing the food security problem. There was also some positionin...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High
The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister indicated the country is talking with the UN on potential food export corridors in the Black Sea, w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 16-20 May 2022 As of 17 May, spring planting was in line with last year, yet still behind 2020 by 40 percent and 2019 by 30 percent, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Earlier in the season the government was trying to stabilize prices for inputs and banne...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a maximum of 12.25 percent as a measure to control inflation that has been complicated by the Russia/Ukraine “tensions” and relat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 May 2022 Most businesses were closed from 1-9 May as Russians celebrated Soviet holidays. Trade has now resumed and there is a bearish mood on all fronts. Exporters decreased their interest in the Black Sea ports and local currency strengthened thus solidifying the b...
Novel and Magnanimous; Time to Retire; Whole of Government Effort
Novel and Magnanimous Ukraine has 20 MMT of grain that need to be exported over the next three months before the next crop comes off the fields and needs a place to be stored. Without access to its ports, its current export capacity is 1.5 MMT/month. With hoped-for production this summer of an...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 May 2022 Russian grain traders have continued to decrease their bids in the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports which are now 100 percent controlled by Russia. All Ukrainian ports are blocked and vessels loaded earlier cannot move any further. However, the main reason behind...
Geopolitics Rule; Absence Notable; Frontline Agriculture
Geopolitics Rule During the Cold War, U.S. military planners trumped efforts by American agriculture to challenge the trade distorting effects of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). American farmers were told that the CAP is the glue that holds Europe together, and a divided Europe...
Market Commentary: Cinco de Mayo was about Wheat
Action elsewhere was modest but there was large volume in the wheat pits with a second day in a row of strong closes. Corn and soybeans gained a few pennies but remain well off from their highs. USDA’s Export Sales report affirmed the demand for U.S. crops. Old crop wheat sales were high...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 25-29 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2022 grain crop at 123 MMT mostly due to an additional 1 Mha of planted area. Winter crops, which are planted over 19 Mha), are reportedly in good and satisfactory condition. Oilseeds are forec...
Market Commentary: Vegoils Crash on Export Ban Reality; U.S. Corn Planting Slowest Since 2013
The CBOT waivered near contract and all-time highs in various commodities on Monday with better weather forecasts in the U.S. offering pressure. Moreover, a slow realization that Indonesia won’t be able to maintain an export ban on palm oil sent soyoil futures 5 percent lower, a move whic...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that the first 3.5 Mha of spring crops have been planted out of 53.6 Mha forecast. This year’s planting pace is in line with past year’s and around 12 Mha of winter wheat has been fertilized. An est...
Market Commentary: Pause with Mixed Results
Wheat is headed for a haircut this week while soybeans remain in the catbird seat, but the sum of the day was a pause with some profit-taking. Chicago has already added lots of war premium with a dose of weather topping. Today was a breather to see where this all goes, especially U.S. spring pl...
Worker Centric Paradox; Hoarding Disorder; Bipolar Accelerant
Worker Centric Paradox The Biden Administration has called for a “worker centric” trade policy but USTR Katherine Tai is complaining about a dearth of data to support the initiative. The old metric was an assumption that each $1 billion in trade supports 30,000 workers, and that tra...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported expectations that spring crops will be planted on 81.3 Mha of land, an increase of 1 Mha from last year. Agriculture Minister Dmitriy Patrushev expects the crop to reach 123 MMT, with wheat accounting for 80 MM...
Dishonorable Food; Guantes Para Niños in Mexico; Build Back Never
Dishonorable Food Eddy Wax in Politico points out that Western agribusiness companies continue to operate in Russia despite the war on Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy characterizes the agribusiness companies continuing to supply Russia as “flooded with our blood.” B...
Evolving Trade Policy; Russia’s Disinformation War
Evolving Biden Trade Policy Last year the Biden Administration was said to be focusing on prioritizing enforcement in trade policy and not negotiating new trade deals. The President’s foreign policy was said to focus on “the middle class” and promised no new trade talks...
The Great Divorce
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a stark warning to China this week. She basically threatened China economically if it continued to tacitly support Russia. Unless Beijing uses its “special relationship” with Russia to help end the war, she said “it will be increasingl...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Scores New Highs; Wheat, Corn Rally on War and Technical Buying
The CBOT ended sharply higher on Wednesday with corn and wheat leading the way. Higher energy values helped soyoil futures score new contract highs, despite the recent pullback in European sunoil and rapeseed oil values. Wednesday was the last day of the Goldman and index fund rolls, which mean...
Black Sea Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-8 April 2022 During the first week of April, the Russian grain market was predominantly bearish especially on the export front. On the domestic side, the war with Russia in Ukraine, and therefore the expected increased domestic consumer demand, started to raise selling...
Market Commentary: E15 News Sends Corn to New Highs; 40-year High Inflation Keeps Funds Buying
The CBOT rallied sharply Tuesday with news that the Biden Administration will allow E15 ethanol use, news which buoyed corn futures. The Biden Administration broke with the Democrats’ typical ambivalence or distain towards ethanol and announced it will allow higher ethanol blend rates int...
Missing: Economic Resilience
One reason that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine was a sense of immunity against reprisal due to external dependence on Russia’s energy supplies and food. He was wrong about the reprisal calculation but not about dependence. The OECD’s Composite of leading indicators (CLIs) point to e...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Despite Benign WASDE; Soyoil, Soybeans, Corn Post Technically Bullish Days
CBOT markets firmed heading into the April WASDE and continued their strength thereafter, despite a relatively benign USDA report. USDA stuck to its measured approach in estimating losses to South American soybean production as well as the Russia-Ukraine war. USDA’s policy is always to av...
War on Words; Defense Kills Permanence; War Changes Market – But How?
War on Words Autocratic regimes can be dystopian and filled with censorship. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has ordered information sources to not call his assault on Ukraine an “attack,” an “invasion,” or a “war.” Instead, it is to be called a special operati...
Ukraine Miniseries - Part III - Russian Advantage
Owning the Passage Russia is still able and will be able to export commodities. Sanctions do not include food. No one will deny countries like Egypt access to cheaper wheat to feed their people. And many of the countries that have been buying Russian wheat and barley will continue to do so.&nbs...
Market Commentary: CBOT Eases Lower Before Fund Roll, USDA Report; Challenging Weather for U.S., South America
After sharp rallies Monday and Tuesday, traders booked CBOT profits on Wednesday heading into Thursday’s Goldman roll and CONAB report and the USDA April WASDE on Friday. Trading volume was light but, for the day, funds were net sellers and bear spreaders. Brokers estimate funds sold 5,00...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Dismal Crop Ratings
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA showing five-year lows in winter wheat conditions ratings put a bid under KCBT and CBOT wheat Tuesday. Combined with the fact the Russia-Ukraine war shows no sign of slowing down, the entire CBOT rallied in continued “risk-on” mode. A...
Borscht Belt Economics
Borscht is considered comfort food in Russia and the cost to make it is reportedly rising. Bloomberg reports that since the start of the war, the cost of cabbage is up 16 percent and onion prices have risen by 18 percent. Based on FAO data, Russia produces 39.6 pounds per capita of cabbage but...
War and the Food Fight; Development Effectiveness; To Ruble or Not
War and the Food Fight The intra-EU debate over F2F was bubbling under the surface but like lava flowing out of a rupture in the earth’s crust, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unleashed a public fight over its future. French President Emmanuel Macron is using the war to pivot farm...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soybeans Fall to End Week; Aggressive Bear Spreading in Corn; Oil Below $100 on SPR Release
The CBOT capped a volatile week with aggressive bear spreading in corn and sharply lower days in wheat and soybeans. The USDA’s reports from Thursday continued to drive market action on Friday with traders adjusting to the new expectations of record-large soybean acreage and 14-year lows...
Market Commentary: Vlad-atility
Vlad-atility is volatility caused when the market places too much value in what Vladimir Putin might be implying. Yesterday’s commodity lows were aspirational based (or fear based for bulls) as Russia briefly signaled a kinder gentler war. Today there was the realization of what a wrongfu...
Offense is Defense; Gas Emergency; Pesky Bureaucracy
Offense is Defense USTR Katherine Tai knew that she would be facing some strong agriculture voices when she appears this week before the House and Senate committees overseeing her work. Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Nebraska) had already sent a letter demanding to know why more than a year after Preside...
USTR Sleeps Too Much; Weird Trade Obligations; War Profiteering
USTR Sleeps Too Much With hearings before House and Senate trade panels over the next two days, USTR Katherine Tai suddenly says she has “serious concerns” about Mexico’s energy policies. She reportedly did not arrive at those “concerns” until pushed by members of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 December 2024 – 3 January 2025As of the end of 2024, Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) statistics show “preliminary” grain crop size at 124.96 MMT without including occupied territories of Ukraine, but including annexed Crimea. RosStat can issue “preliminary” updates...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 December 2024Last week, the Russian grain markets showed the first signs of the holiday season with rather weak trading. Russian grain markets and especially export business will adjust to the Christmas season globally which will then enter Russian Orthodox Christ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 December 2024Russian grain markets remained relatively stable but, in some areas, especially export platform, prices were bearish. Part of the reason behind a bearish trend is the potential decrease of stocks. As of early December, stocks of agricultural companies...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 December 2024Export duties were the key driver followed by forex and increased freight costs for rail deliveries which are the main channel of grain delivery to the ports both from Russian territory and occupied territories of Ukraine. Before, freight was not a majo...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 26 November, Russian farmers produced 132 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 19.3 MMT less than a year ago. This is with the crop harvested from 97.7 percent of the area yielding only 2.82 M/ha versus 3.16/MT a year ago. Grain yields...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the oilseed complex more broadly – are seeing pressure from excellent conditions in South America as well as the political ramifications of Presi...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18 – 22 November 2024Russian Vice Premier Dmitri Patrushev is confident that Russia will export up to 60 MMT of grains this season. According to Mr. Patrushev, the gross grain production this season will reach 130 MMT in standard weight, of which 83 MMT is wheat. The Vice...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Fall on Export Data
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex finding their way into the red for various reasons. Wheat initially rallied on rising tensions and attacks between Rusia and Ukraine, with Ukraine accusing Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missil...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 November 2024Russian Union of Grain producers and exporters announced that winter wheat area for 2025/26 may drop to 15.4 Mha which will be the smallest planted winter crops area since 2018/19. Particularly, wheat area may drop by 0.9 Mha to 16.3 Mha, and after wi...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...
Market Commentary: Today was Green but Headwinds for the Week
Corn, soymeal, live cattle and lean hogs all traded lower during the morning start but by the end of the day, only lean hogs ended lower. There were modest volumes being traded on Friday for most contracts, except feeder cattle where it was nearly double the five-day average.December soymeal hi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday marked the fifth straight business day with a “flash” export sales announcement for corn, with Mexico responsible for essentially all of the de...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Fuel 2-Day Corn Rally; Wheat Rises with Russian Prices
CBOT grains and oilseeds seem to be playing “follow the leader” and have recently switched roles. Previously, soybeans were rallying and pulling grain futures grudgingly higher, but that has completely flipped following Monday’s Grain Stocks report. Now, corn and wheat are ris...
Russia’s Grain Shortfall
Today’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report provided the market with a bullish input but there may be another shoe to drop. Russia’s stocks to use ratio for corn and wheat have been dropping for four straight years. Over that timeframe, it is down 64 percent for corn and 48 percent f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Amid Weak Russian Prices; Soyoil Rises on Exports; Macro Markets Boost Cattle
Markets and traders were broadly enthusiastic following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-bps cut to its target interest rate on Wednesday, but you wouldn’t know that from looking at the grain or oilseed markets. Wheat futures were sharply lower on Thursday amid pressure from French whe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 September 2024 The Russian grain market is finally showing bullish sentiments. Adverse weather in Russia this season concerns many analysts, and they are one after another decreasing their forecasts for overall grain production. Exact numbers are hard to figure...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 August 2024 Kazakhstan announced they will close the borders with Russia for wheat from now until 31 December. This will put even more pressure on the Russian wheat market and may push them to offer softer offers for GASC tenders where they are the key players...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 August 2024 Crop Outlook As of 13 August, Russian farmers produced 69 MMT of grains from 20.6 Mha versus 73.5 MMT from 19.5 Mha last year. The average yield showed 3.36 MT/ha versus 3.76 a year ago. Wheat production reached 56.3 MMT from 15.8 Mha versus 57.4 M...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 August 2024 Crop Outlook Russian analysts woke up to the fact that grain production reported from farms is higher than originally predicted. The reaction was quick and most of the main analytical agencies in Russia reforecast their numbers upwards. Particularly,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 July–2 August 2024 Russian Vice Premier Patroushev announced that Russia is 40 percent done with harvesting small grains. The harvesting pace is ahead of last year’s pace; however, production is only 64 MMT which is lower than last year’s crop. The gr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 July 2024 This season Russia will fail to produce a record crop despite an earlier harvesting campaign. The Ministry of Agriculture believes in their previous forecast of 132 MMT of which wheat is 86 MMT. Interestingly, the Ministry of Agriculture is the most...
Market Commentary: Bears Concentrate on Soybeans, Wheat Scores Reversal
The CBOT started the week with a collapse in soybeans and the broader soy complex in early trade that pulled corn and wheat lower as well. Soybeans, soyoil, and wheat all scored new contract lows in the early selloff with funds eagerly extending their short positions. By the day’s end, ho...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of global exports. Egypt’s GASC secured 20 KMT of sunflower seed oil at $1,013.99/MT for 1-15 September delivery. The original pla...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign. Even though this year’s crop is quite modest compared to the past several seasons, the pressure on prices is significant because of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...
Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?
CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout the day, which left wheat and soybeans to trade higher. Wheat found support from dryness in the Black Sea and smaller crop estimates for Russi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 June 2024 Russia’s grain markets were quite volatile with some regions showing price recoveries. Southern Russia’s harvesting campaign is underway. Fresh demand for new crop barley has seen better price levels and as long as feed barley exports are...
Market Commentary: Still Looking for that Inevitable Bottom
Today, everything bled red except live cattle. Generally favorable U.S. weather overhangs the market until USDA’s Acreage Report is issued next week on 28 June. Nothing is tanking as much as wheat, with Paris now entering oversold territory and July HRS hitting a new contract low...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 June 2024 Last week, Russian grain markets were quite volatile. In the south, the main export-oriented areas saw grain prices drop following the global bearish trend and Russia’s most recent failure on the GASC tender in Egypt. Moreover, Russia’s s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 June 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable and slightly bullish against solid demand for Russian wheat globally and recently appreciated markets due to fears of lower production caused by adverse spring weather. All Russian ministries, including the Ministr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 May 2024 Russia remains the focus of many world grain analysts as weather factors in Russia and Ukraine make global markets nervous and bullish. Futures markets reacted almost instantaneously while Russian markets only now realize the situation and all grains...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission imposed an import tax on Russian wheat, corn, products derived from their processing, and feed. The duties range from €95-148/MT for various wheat varieties, €94/MT for grain corn, €93/MT for barley and rye, 3.2-64 percent for sunflower oil,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 May 2024 Crop Outlook Russian weather, particularly spring frosts, became an important factor in estimating the potential of this season’s crop. Despite the warnings from government agencies not to publish forecasts, several Russian analysts still announ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Bulls Remain Relentless; U.S. Farmers Make Strong Planting Progress
Overnight volume was strong at the CBOT with traders eager to get back to work following a weekend of reductions in the Black Sea crop forecast(s). Several private firms lowered their Russian wheat crop estimates late Friday or over the weekend, which sent EU futures higher on Monday and create...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Corn Still Strong; Soy Complex Waivers
Corn traded mostly higher all session and has gained value in three of the past four days. The soy complex was higher in the overnight session and opened that way this morning, but it didn’t last long and closed in the red. The July soybean contract has had a mixed week, but it is still u...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 May 2024 Crop Outlook As of mid-May, Russia farmers planted 24.8 Mha of spring crops which is 44.5 percent of the forecast. This is 4.6 Mha ahead of last year’s planting pace. Grains and pulses were planted over 12.98 Mha which is 43.2 percent of the for...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Highs on Smaller Russian Crop; Corn, Soy Fall on Planting Progress
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and the soy complex finding pressure after Monday’s Crop Progress report reflected better-than-expected planting progress. That reduced concerns about late plantings negatively impacting yields or, for soybeans, unplanted corn acres being switched t...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April–3 May 2024 Last week Russia celebrated International Labor Day, and on May 9 will celebrate WWII Victory Day, resulting in a long 10-day holiday for many Russian families, including grain traders. This traditionally slows down trade, however, logistics cont...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 April 2024 Russian analysts are beginning to worry that this season’s grain production in Russia may drop from almost 145 MMT in 2023 to 135 MMT because of the drought in Southern Federal District – the wheat belt of Russia. Russian Ministry of Agr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may leave Russia without proper genetics for this spring’s planting campaign. While small grains are available due to long term domestic see...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 April 2024 The government has realized that taxing exportable wheat and barley at a high rate was not a good idea, especially with wheat stocks pushing the roof. Possibly the news about softer duties will improve prices for small grains. Corn duty is symbolic an...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 March 2024 Last week, the Russian domestic grain market was volatile. Most of the grains were recovering following global trends and demand in the export zone of Russia. However, even with zero duty which lasted only one week, feed corn continued losing ground...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risks Sink CBOT, Macro Markets
The CBOT and broader financial/macroeconomic markets reflected uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks on Tuesday with traders adopting a strong “risk off” mentality. Rising tensions in the Middle East with Iran and Israel’s proxy fight threatening to dissolve into an open w...
Market Commentary: Acreage Outlooks Weaken Corn, Soy; Wheat Gains on Firmer Russian Offers
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower heading into Thursday’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports from the USDA, but wheat futures managed to find midday support and settle higher. Wheat’s strength came from another week of cautious gains in Russian FOB offers, which is seen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 March 2024 The Russian domestic grain market saw depreciation of milling wheat and a slight depreciation of feed wheat, while feed corn also started to appreciate - most probably because of softer export duties. For the upcoming week, exports of feed corn from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on EU Tariffs; Soy, Corn Drift Lower Before Stocks, Acres Reports
The wheat market was the surprising upside leader for the day with Matif Paris futures posting large gains after sources said the EU Commission is considering applying a €95/MT tariff on Russian wheat imports. That strength spilled over into the U.S. markets, though U.S. wheat exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish in the south and Volga valley. However, export prices did not react immediately despite a decreased export duty and weaker RUB. In fact, a weaker RUB is better for Russian grain exports which are at hi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...
Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE
With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW. Tomorrow will see the release...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...
Peas Please
As noted in today’s Black Sea report, the price of peas in Russia are rising as exports go unfettered by any export tax. Canada is by far the largest exporter of peas with a two-thirds market share. But Russia is second with a 12.4 percent market share, the U.S. exports about 9 percent of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...
Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues as CBOT Contemplates Record Fund Short Position
Tuesday’s mood at the CBOT seemed to be one primarily of consolidation and mild short covering. Corn futures extended Monday’s key reversal but failed to make much upside progress while the soybean market settled lower after posting 16-cent gains in early trade. Wheat futures pushed...
Policy Quick Hits
Appropriations Deadline The initial deadline for avoiding a government shutdown is one week from today, 1 March. By that time, Congress needs to pass four appropriations bills, including the agriculture appropriations, as well as the energy and water, military construction and transportat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise
Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Firm in Early Week Trade; Russia Lowers “Suggested” Wheat Price
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman roll concluded its fourth day on Monday, which helped drive some of the day’s trade, though roll volume was far below Friday’s...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat markets remain under pressure as Western Europe and Black Sea exports battle each other and the American markets for export demand. Paris Matif futures were sharply lower last week and scored new contract lows and a post-WASDE rally on Friday brought additional selling...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The export market has been driving this market for a while and intervention purchases did not save Russian farmers from the global bear. Moreover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harvested from occupied territories. During a recent press conference, he mentioned that during 2023 Russia produced 150 MMT in bunker weight and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 January 2024 After the January holidays, the Russian market is being revised step-by-step. The volume of trade is not so impressive but against all odds and large stocks the market saw some bullish sentiments especially with rye and peas. Peas dramatically appr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 December 2023 As of late December, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts grain production at 142 MMT. A week ago, the Russian Statistics Agency had already reported 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Done...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 December 2023 As of mid-December, the Russian Statistics Agency reports 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. The wheat crop alone accounted for 92.8 MMT which is the sec...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs like seeds, fertilizers, chemicals, spare parts, and western equipment. In an effort to help, the government provided subsidies to farmers a...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on NOPA Crush; Grains Dip on Slack Exports
The CBOT was mixed to start the last full trading week of 2023 with the soy complex rallying on the heels of last week’s NOPA crush report. The report featured the second-largest U.S. soybean crush in history, which helped push the soy complex higher for the day. Exports were a weight on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT a year ago. The information from the Ministry is delayed and is usually adjusted several times. Wheat was reportedly harvested from 29.1 Mha...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Pulls Soy Complex Lower; Wheat Rises on Growing Demand
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In contrast, the wheat market managed to shrug off Monday’s dramatic declines and push higher with signs that world demand is starting to in...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 November–1 December 2023 Russian markets finally broke the bear which has been present almost since the beginning of the new season. High quality milling wheat is unmistakably bullish; the main factor is a lower share of high-quality milling wheat even though whe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 November 2023 Russian markets remained quite volatile, however, the Asian area finally stabilized because Kazakhstan seems to have replenished their stocks for the moment. The Siberian market is stable and although prices for 3rd grade milling wheat are...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows to Start the Week
Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, carving out new contract lows. There was no bullish news for wheat, cattle, or hogs, which led to a deluge of selling to start the week. The w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 November 2023 The Russian market remained quite volatile with European Russia bearish and the Asian region bullish thanks to solid demand from Kazakhstan. However, the gap between the European and Asian parts of the country is getting smaller and smaller...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 November 2023 Russian markets remained quite volatile last week with the European area stable and bearish but the Asian part stable and bullish thanks to demand from Kazakhstan. This can move into a stagnation period where, with no fundamental factors inv...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Linseed’s Small Story
In today’s Black Sea report, WPI’s analyst points out that Russia and Kazakhstan, and particularly Russia are supplanting Canada as a supplier of linseed. Russia previously produced around a half-million tons a year but is now nearing 2 MMT or half of global production. World produc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 October–3 November 2023 As of 30 October, Russia harvested 140.2 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 9.8 MMT less than the same date a year ago. Grains and pulses were harvested from 45.4 Mha which is 94.6 percent of the crop averaging 3.09 MT/ha versus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 23–27 October 2023 As of 27 October, winter crops were planted over 18.5 Mha versus the 20 Mha planned by the government. If Russia reaches this number, it will be up 1.5 Mha from last year. This also includes occupied territories of Ukraine, according to the g...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 October 2023 As of 20 October, Russian farmers harvested grains and pulses from 44.6 Mha which is in line with last year (44.5 Mha), averaging 3.08 MT/ha versus 3.33 MT/ha, a record-breaking year in Russian history. Interestingly, Russia first reports th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 October 2023 After weeks and weeks of bearish sentiments the market is finally coming to relative stability because farmers can afford to sit on their stocks, and most of the multinational trades are not currently doing business in Russia. Local old and n...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the WASDE Storm
The CBOT was mostly calm before Thursday’s October WASDE – a report that often produces volatile reactions from the market. Corn and wheat drifted mostly lower, but corn managed to squeeze out a gain of a few cents in quiet trade. Soybeans dropped sharply lower despite daily “...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–27 September 2023 Bearish sentiments prevail as the harvest brings more and more grain to the market while exports are unable to cope with such large volumes and surpluses of wheat. There is a lack of competition on the buyer’s side as fewer and fewer...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Russia’s Wheat Situation
Egypt was reportedly negotiating with Russia on a purchase of 1 MMT of wheat but has now gone to an international tender. Meanwhile, Tunisia tendered for 100 KMT of there were no offers from Russian trading houses. The trade believes Moscow has put a brake on wheat exports through an unofficial...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 11–15 September 2023 Russian grain markets plummeted on reports of another large crop and huge carryover which is not traditional for this time of the season. We are talking about 140 MMT of new crop plus around 27 MMT of old crop (carryover). Russia started th...
Market Commentary: Russia Undercutting Wheat Markets; Corn Sees Temporary Bounce
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with wheat values still languishing under stiff competition from Russia. Wheat values are drifting lower despite 10-year low U.S. supplies and tight ending stocks, but with exports off to a weak start amid competition from Russia, few want to be long the market. Co...
Market Commentary: Traders Earn a Weekend
In what has been an intense week of market activity, Friday’s action was at once modest but demonstrative of the volatile path ahead. Volume was constrained, except in soyoil and SRW, two contracts that closed higher today and for the week. The cattle market continued its...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 September 2023 Russian grain markets remained bearish, however, export volumes of all agricultural commodities from Russia remained stable. Russia has no navigation restrictions across the Black Sea. Going through Bosporus or any other channel, Russia can...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
Market Commentary: Declining Crop Ratings Push CBOT Higher; Wheat Rallies on Russian Attacks
Tuesday’s surprise (but not entirely unexpected) decline in U.S. corn and soybean conditions ratings, in tandem with more Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports, sent the CBOT sharply higher overnight. KCBT wheat was the only market, however, to maintain most of its strength with CBOT wheat,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 August–1 September 2023 Russian grain markets finally signaled that the new crop is calling the shots on the market. Southern areas went bearish because of ample supply and slow logistics while inland trading is trying to find its bottom price as farmers ar...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Ratings Hit Five-Year Lows; Wheat Beats a Bearish Drum
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened week in a lackluster manner with the soy complex sinking lower, largely on weaker palm oil values and soymeal deliveries, while wheat and corn futures scratched out small gains. Trading volume was light for the day and the last day of the most recent heatw...
Market Commentary: Futures Unfazed by Heat but Barge Rates Soar; Crush Report Shows Soyoil Demand
The CBOT was mostly flat in quiet trade to end the week with traders showing little concern for a weekend of hot, dry weather for most of the crop-growing U.S. Corn and soybeans managed to find their way to modest gains on short covering and some reaction to the weather, but wheat futures ended...
Market Commentary: Sliding into Fall
It was another day of the weather and Chicago working at cross purposes. Continued heat and dryness are expected to knock corn and soybean yields lower but it was another day of losses for grains and oilseeds. There may be some profit taking ahead of the upcoming three-day holiday weekend, but...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under pressure from a good crop, however, export duties decreased to allow at least some bullish movement on the domestic market. The global prices are relatively stable, and exporters cannot afford to offer a m...
Market Commentary: Paris Contract Leads Wheat Lower; Better Conditions Pressure Corn, Soy
The CBOT was entirely red across the major ag commodities Tuesday as weak technical conditions and better than expected crop conditions pressured trader sentiment. Monday’s Crop Conditions report featured bearish surprises in that last weeks’ heatwave didn’t result in the shar...
More BRICS, Same Problems
The BRICS Group, a club of nations with the goal of tilting the international order away from the West, has invited six countries to join and make it an unhappy family of eleven. We previously noted the shortcomings of the original BRICS and the new cousins have similar genetic defects: A...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Heat, Russian Attacks
The CBOT was higher to start the day after Russia attacked more Ukrainian export and grain infrastructure in Odesa and the country’s Danube River ports. That rally was extended during the day session as the blistering hot weather over the U.S. Midwest prompted traders to add back weather...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under the pressure of a good crop, higher freight rates, and ever-growing export duties. Since most of the pricing in country is based on the export marketplace in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, some regions are af...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms on Russian Attacks, Extreme Midwest Temps
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday with another Russian attack on Ukraine’s Danube River ports and a hot, dry weather forecast for the Midwest offering support. Corn, soybeans, and KCBT wheat bounced higher off technical support while the CBOT wheat market traded either side of unchanged...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 August 2023 The Russian grain market was not following one clear trend. Partly because of the geographical spread of the country, but global factors also effect Russian markets and especially the latest developments in the Black Sea. The market is very se...
Market Commentary: Calm before the Calm
Early pattern recognition on the CBOT today ahead of tomorrow’s August WASDE report - bottom line no drama. Volume was slack, except in lean hogs, and trading ranges were muted. December corn had a trading range of 4.75 cents, which is to say it is settled science. Except for Monday, over...
Market Commentary: U.S. Weather Shifts Again; WASDE Expectations; Ethanol Margins Climb
The CBOT was mixed at midweek with pre-WASDE positioning once again driving much of the day’s activity. Corn attempted to rally on short covering and continued strength in Dalian futures, but rallies were again capped above $5 by selling pressure. Soybeans and soyoil managed to squeeze ou...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 July–4 August 2023 The Russian grain market was predominantly bearish except for corn and rye. Weak domestic currency remains one of the major factors. You would think that with higher global prices, export prices in Russian seaports and riverports would fo...
Market Commentary: Shorts Grow Cautious Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT posted a mixed day in light volume trade with preparations for the August WASDE that will come out this Friday driving much of the market action. Corn and the soy complex finished mostly higher while wheat was mixed as traders seem cautious against becoming overly short the market. Tra...
Market Commentary: Certainties No Longer Certain; Corn, Soy Lower on Midwest Rains
Wheat futures rallied to start the week on increasing conflict in the Black Sea with Ukraine targeting Russian ocean vessels and adding new uncertainties to the region’s grain trade abilities. Wheat was only the first of two major ag markets (lean hogs being the other) to end the day high...
Farm Fuel Cost Outlook
Over the past four weeks diesel prices have started to rally moving toward harvest season. The question remains whether this is temporary or a longer-term trend. From a regional perspective, Midwest distillate inventories for the week of 14 July were the highest recorded for the region s...
Market Commentary: Attacks on Russian Ports Lift Grains; Feeder Cattle Hit All Time Highs
In a twist on the recent Black Sea narratives, CBOT futures were higher overnight after Ukraine attacked Russian port infrastructure in the Crimean Peninsula. Reports came overnight that Russia’s oil export infrastructure in the Novorossiysk port had been attacked by naval drones (presume...
Market Commentary: No Gapping Day
When the close is not too far off the open, the trading range is small and the volume is light, the price must be right. Markets continued their quotidian march generally lower but in a modest way. This no doubt reflects a weather forecast that spells recovery from an otherwise dis...
Market Commentary: Weather in the Driver’s Seat; CBOT Falls Despite More Danube Attacks
August has so far not been very kind to commodity markets, though it’s not as much the month’s fault as it is the fault of improved weather forecasts. CBOT futures were sharply lower on Wednesday and the mid-week weakness came despite another Russian attack on Ukrainian grain infras...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 July 2023 The Russian grain market was predominantly bullish and a big reason was the bombing of Ukrainian Black Sea and Danube ports followed by the Africa-Russia summit in St. Petersburg where Russia was testing the future of grain trading globally in...
Market Commentary: Weather Rally Fades but Upside Risks Remain
The CBOT continued to drift lower on Friday with the fireworks from the rallies Monday and Tuesday fading on profit taking and more aggressive short selling. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal were all lower to end the week with soyoil and livestock the only bright spots among the major ag comm...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Lower on Rains, Yield Estimates
Rain across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday helped push the CBOT lower with wheat leading the way. Nothing has changed about the near-term forecast, which remains scorching hot and mostly dry across the Southern Plains and Corn Belt, but the 6-10-day forecast is mixed with be...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 July 2023 Russian farmers continue harvesting winter crops and the progress is quite good with grain crop forecasts totaling 134.5 MMT of which 86.5 MMT is wheat. Local analysts increased the forecast. The worst-case scenario is 123.5 MMT of grains with...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Doesn’t Change Bullish Backdrop
Bull markets need to be constantly “fed” with news and when that feeding slows or lapses, the rally does too. That’s largely what happened at the CBOT on Tuesday with a quiet day for fundamental news allowing markets to pull back with mild profit taking and slight corrective p...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Danube Export Doubts
Monday’s trade was all about the weekend, which was hot and dry in the U.S. Midwest and featured more attacks by Russia on Ukrainian infrastructure. That alone would have been enough to send markets into rally mode, but it was coupled with a third bullish factor – an extremely hot a...
Market Commentary: Improved August Weather Forecast Prompts Profit Taking
The CBOT pulled back heading into the weekend on profit taking and NOAA’s new August weather forecast that shows more moderate temperatures and normal rains for most of the Corn Belt and Midwest. While any forecast longer than 10-days has been highly inaccurate this summer, the latest gui...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Pause Temporarily; Cattle Post Bearish Reversal before Report
The CBOT’s weather- and Black Sea-conflict induced rally took a break on Thursday with traders reassessing both global export market conditions and the U.S. weather forecast. There is a growing sense that the immediate impacts of the Black Sea grain export corridor’s expiration have...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 July 2023 The Russian grain market was driven purely by a weak RUB which was registered from the beginning of the month. Even though the reference price dropped, the government increased the export duty for wheat probably speculating that prices will gro...
Market Commentary: Russia Leaves Black Sea Deal; Grains Lower After Two-Sided Trade
The CBOT started the day with a higher tone after Russia confirmed that it will be leaving the Black Sea export corridor agreement, which ended Monday, 17 July. The markets followed a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trading pattern and ended lower after fears of grain supply...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 July 2023 The first week of the new marketing year is gone and the market is under severe pressure due to carryover, slower exports, and multinational traders leaving the market. Farmers are not in a hurry to dump their grains at lower prices especially wi...
Market Commentary: Russian Port Attacks Send Wheat Higher; Markets Firm Ahead of WASDE
Wheat futures led the CBOT higher heading into the July WASDE after Russia launched 22 drones overnight at Ukraine’s Odesa grain terminal. Ukraine’s air defenses defeated all the drones, but two hit administrative buildings and debris from downed drones started two fires at port ter...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Russia/Ukraine conflict has again taken on an increased importance for commodity markets. Ukraine last week accused Russia of mining the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and both countries are accusing the other of planning attacks on the facility. Any event at the plant i...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Harvest Delays, Quality Issues; Cattle Fall on Quiet Cash Trade
The CBOT had an old-school opening this morning with no overnight trade as markets were closed Tuesday for the U.S. Independence Day holiday. That led to a bit more volatility in the morning’s open but nothing that really sparked much angst. Soybeans and corn saw relatively quiet trading...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 June 2023 Russian Grain Union is estimating the Russian grain crop at 130-140 MMT and export potential at 55 MMT. The Union is not expecting a record crop again and is estimating a 10 percent decline. A pessimistic scenario discussed by some domestic ana...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Shocks Still Drive Markets; Crop Conditions Worsen Despite Rains
The CBOT was mixed in moderate trading volume heading into the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Tuesday (note that CBOT markets and WPI’s offices will be closed for the day). The shock of Friday’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports continues to reverberate through markets with corn re...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Investment Bank will provide a €50 million loan for the construction of a new grain terminal in the Bulgarian port of Varna. The project investor is Logistic Center Varna AED -which is part of one of Bulgaria’s largest grain traders, the Buildcom Grou...
Market Commentary: Major Surprises in Acreage, Grain Stocks Reports; Cattle Hit New Highs
USDA’s highly anticipated June Acreage estimates and quarterly Grain Stocks reports did not fail to live up to their hype and brought several significant surprises on Friday. This article will detail the reports and their implications in the next paragraphs, but in summary, corn planted a...
Market Commentary: Calm Before Tomorrow’s Storm
It has been a messy, volatile period. Spooked by drought, then reassured by showers, only to be spooked again by instability in Russia. Still there are reasons to be more bullish than the market has shown over the past several days. Rains in the western Corn Belt are moving eastward and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 June 2023 Russian analysts cut previous grain production forecasts by 2.3 MMT – down to 134 MMT - due to weather conditions, especially in Siberia and Volga Valley. The wheat production forecast dropped from 88 MMT to 86.8 MMT, barley forecast from...
Market Commentary: Wetter Weather Drives Turnaround Tuesday; Traders Position for Stocks and Acres Data
WPI readers will not be shocked to hear that the updated weather forecasts, which include more rain for the Midwest, were the primary force driving CBOT futures lower on Tuesday. Tuesday saw scattered showers over the Northern Plains and parts of Kansas and Oklahoma while a larger system brough...
Market Commentary: Crop Conditions Plunge Lower; Futures Mixed to Start Week; Record Cow-Calf Returns Forecast
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders waiting to see what USDA’s Crop Conditions report would show. Row crops featured two-sided trade after weekend rains brought some relief to many parts of the Midwest but skipped most of Illinois and Missouri. The forecast is gradually shif...
Market Commentary: EPA Volumes Sink Soyoil; Grains Rally on Crop Conditions
Just one day after this analyst wrote that grain futures were likely to take a break from their rally amid overbought technical conditions, futures extended their rallies based on worsening U.S. crop conditions. The USDA’s crop conditions data yesterday was bullish corn, soybeans, and spr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 June 2023 According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, as of 5 June, total acreage of spring grains and legumes planted reached 29 Mha including: wheat – 13.5 Mha, barley – 7 Mha, corn – 2.5 Mha, and rice – 159,400 ha. ...
Market Commentary: A Pause Amid the Weather Market Storm
Last week’s CBOT trade rightly featured significant rallies as the U.S. weather forecast remains stubbornly hot and dry in both near- and long-term forecasts but today’s trade featured a pause amid the drought-concern rally. Futures were somewhat overextended after last week’s...
Market Commentary: More Weather Premium
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. New crop futures traded higher again today as there is still no improvement in a weather pattern that compelled USDA to drop the share of corn and soybeans rated Good/Excellent to lows not seen in four years a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 May – 2 June 2023 Russian farmers are in the final stage of spring planting. Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of early June, 50.7 Mha were planted which is 92 percent of the forecast. A year ago, the planted area was 49.1 Mha. Spring grains...
Market Commentary: Mixed Bag
Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. It was a modest volume day with trading initially unclear about what direction to take. Corn opened higher, traded both sides but ended down. Soybeans traded both sides but ended lower. Wheat moved higher and...
Market Commentary: Old Crop Futures Hit Decision Point
The CBOT traded a volatile day with overnight weakness leading to a selling spike as the day session started. That weakness, however, was quickly met with end-user buying, bottom-picking, and short-covering that boosted spot corn and soy complex futures while adding strength to wheat markets mo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22 – 26 May 2023 Russian farmers continue their spring planting campaign. The Minister of Agriculture reports that around 33.2 Mha have been planted out of the 57 Mha scheduled. Also, 93 percent of winter crops are in good condition but in certain areas winter...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trade Reflects Long Term Bearish Outlook
The CBOT started the week on a bearish note with expectations for strong planting progress across the U.S. and sluggish demand weighing on markets. Friday’s CFTC report that showed continued fund short selling in major ag commodities also helped keep markets on the defensive to start the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15 – 19 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish. Russia’s position during negotiations of the UN grain corridor extension was not particularly strong and all sentiments were in favor of an extension, even if only for sixty days. Export dut...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm as Wheat Posts Reversal; Soy Complex Plays Defense
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and wheat firming with increased short covering and buying interest amid oversold technical conditions and recent selloff lows. Growing concerns about Russia’s refusal to allow grain export vessels into one Ukrainian port also helped put a bid under...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Renewed; Fund Selling Hammers CBOT
The CBOT feature one-direction trade at mid-week – lower – with funds continuing to rapidly exit long positions in the grain markets and/or pile into newly profitable short positions. While technical/fund selling drove most of the day’s price action, bearish fundamental factor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8 – 12 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish with the volume of trade miniscule because of traditional May holidays in Russia. A parade in Moscow was held irrespective of the weather or geopolitical situation giving the Russian people another...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Plunge Lower; Corn Tests $5 Again; Wheat Mixed on Varied Outlook
Weak macroeconomic markets and good planting progress in Monday’s Crop Progress report sent the CBOT sharply lower on Tuesday. Corn and soybeans led the way lower with oilseed breaking technical support in early trade and subsequently falling 25-36 cents by the closing bell. Weakness in s...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russian sources indicate the country plans to extend the Black Sea grain export corridor agreement for another 60 days starting 18 May 2023. The EU Parliament has extended duty-free trade with Ukraine for another year starting 6 June 2023. Drought remains a major conce...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is reduced stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area. However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Okl...
Market Commentary: WASDE Helps Move Market Along
There were no major surprises in USDA’s May WASDE report, but there was enough to push up the volume in trading. Larger production and ending stocks are the result of higher prices in recent years. Those will be coming down. USDA’s forecast for global wheat ending stocks was 1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 1–5 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remain bearish. Russia is struggling with low prices for grains for domestic farmers and is not receiving sufficient revenue through export duties. Moreover, 1–9 May was a holiday season in Russia mak...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission has places restrictions on the import of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed into five member states (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) through 5 June 2023 to ease supply issues and local price depressions. The ruling allows...
Market Commentary: Mid-Session Reversal Except for New Crop
Corn, wheat, and soybeans traveled in the red for much of the morning trading before wheat turned higher and old crop corn and soybean contracts reversed losses. No doubt weighing on wheat is tensions with Russia, the crops top global supplier, while economic uncertainty keeps animal proteins s...
Market Commentary: Kremlin Drone Story Sparks CBOT Short-Covering Rally
The war in Ukraine continues to be a major influence for the CBOT trade with Russia’s overnight claims it shot down two Ukrainian drones near the Kremlin offering support for ag futures on Wednesday. Russia has described the event as a foiled assassination attempt on President Putin but t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 24 – 28 April 2023 Russia’s grain market remained bearish. Across the country, grains lost value except for Siberia which is still stable and even slightly bullish. However, Siberia is not going to maintain better prices as overall trends bot...
Market Commentary: Crop Fundamentals Play Second Fiddle to Risk Adjustments
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday with any attempt at a rally quickly finding eager and sustained selling pressure. There was no real fundamental catalyst for the day’s selling from an agricultural perspective, rather the day’s weakness stemmed from widespread risk-off trade ami...
Overstating War Impacts
The Russians and the G-7 traded charges blaming each other for causing global food insecurity. EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski finally framed the situation correctly by saying the war has caused market distortions. Global trade in wheat and soybeans has continued to expand. Cor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained predominantly bearish, but the bear is weaker and slower now. Trading is a tug of war with farmers keeping stocks and they are in no hurry to sell for less. Export duties will dictate the trends in the nea...
Market Commentary: Technical, Fund Selling Drive CBOT Lower to Start the Week
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week amid a combination of technically driven and fund position liquidation selling. After the charts turned weak at the end of last week, funds were already starting to lighten up on long positions and continued that trend with more vigor on Monday. Recen...
Russian Politics of the Grain Corridor
Inspections of Ukrainian grain moving through the Black Sea corridor have been off and on this week as Russia briefly stopped processing them. In less than a month, Russia must decide whether to allow the UN-brokered deal to continue. Moscow is insisting reauthorization is conditioned on the We...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained unmistakably bearish; even RUB based trading indicators softened in the ports for all grains. While dollar FOB wheat prices remained almost unchanged for wheat, barley and corn quotations softened. The k...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Planting Dealy Worries, Black Sea Export Concerns
The CBOT firmed to start the week with new crop futures strengthening on a cooler, wetter planting outlook for the U.S. summer crops. Funds were again on the long side of the market after last week’s late-week gains and supported values on Monday. Concerns about planting delays pushed cor...
Placating Eastern Europe; Nationalism Not Ideology
Placating Eastern Europe Slovakia joined Poland and Hungary in blocking grain imports from Ukraine, and Bulgaria is contemplating it. Brussels initially threatened the miscreants for breaching the EU’s trade policies. However, the expanding boycott caused a further examination and instead...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on China Buying, Russia Threats; Cattle Pull Back from Highs
The Goldman roll has dominated this week’s trading action and pressured May futures in grains. Friday concluded the roll and bull spreading emerged that carried corn and wheat futures sharply higher and helped soybean firm from earlier weakness. Additional saber rattling from Russia about...
Market Commentary: Mixed Feelings
The market opened much as the overnight closed but then things shifted for some contracts. Wheat was understandably down on chances for precipitation in some droughty areas but there was less apparent reasoning in other commodities. Despite closing lower today, corn and soybean valu...
Market Commentary: Russia Says Export Deal “Is Not Good”; Cattle Prices Hit New All-Time Highs
More Russian complaints about the Black Sea export corridor agreement overnight helped push wheat higher in heavy volume. Wheat was the only market to see significant trade, however, and the other major ag markets drifted listlessly in low volume. The Kremlin said the outlook for the export dea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish the first week of April aligning with export duty behavior and local currency depreciation. For a few days prices remained stable thanks to domestic currency depreciation but the government was qui...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Futures Hit New Highs After Record Trade Last Week
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the April WASDE on Tuesday, though the soy complex lagged the grain markets’ gains. Wheat futures were higher after Russia threatened last Friday to essentially ignore the Black Sea grain export corridor deal unless barriers to its own exports are r...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 March 2023 International traders, after one full year of war in Ukraine, have finally made up their minds to leave Russia as the business environment in the country is probably one of the most unpredictable in the world. Bunge was one of the first larg...
OPEC Cuts Quotas to Match Actual Production and Establish Price Floor
On Sunday, OPEC + announced voluntary cuts in oil production that will amount to 1.657 million barrels per day (bpd). Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, Gabon, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman, and Kazakhstan are all planning on production cutbacks starting in May and are planned for the remainder of 20...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Weather Concerns, Acres and Stocks Expectations
The CBOT was green across the board on Monday, though trading volume remained lighter than normal. Traders were focused on continued news from Russia that, even if it doesn’t limit wheat exports, it will seek to raise the export price of its products. That, combined with position evening...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
Wheat Futures Up 30 Cents on Russia Export Ban Rumors
CBOT and KCBT wheat futures are sharply higher in early morning trade after news broke that Russia may seek to suspend wheat and sunflower oil exports amid low prices. The Russian government is reportedly considering a temporary halt to shipments in an effort to support local prices. The Russia...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023 The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory terms. Ukraine announced a 120-day extension while Russian officials claim the extension is only valid for another 60 days. The Russian sid...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Sinks Wheat; Markets Brace for Wednesday Fed Meeting
The CBOT started the week with some risk-off trade after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal to extend the Black Sea export corridor agreement over the weekend. The two countries are still arguing over the details of the agreement, but the major takeaway was that Ukraine can still ship grain in r...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Lack of Export Deal; Soybeans Fall Despite 25-MMT Argy Crop Prediction
Corn was the upside leader overnight with heavy volume kicking off Friday’s trade date. Three days of export sales to China plus rumors (that USDA confirmed later in the morning) of a fourth set of sales were bullish and helped put funds and commercials in a buying mood. Wheat futures con...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 March 2023 Grain markets lost all hope for any bullishness due to a global bearish mood, export duties, and the upcoming spring planting campaign which requires cash. The grain export potential of Russia this season is tremendous. Sanctions are n...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off SVB Shakiness
Except for the livestock markets, ag futures were broadly higher on Tuesday with investor and trader confidence returning after the weekend shock to the banking sector. While Monday’s trade was weaker and heavily influenced by the macro-market panic selling relating to the Silicon Valley...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 February – 3 March 2023 Russian grain markets maintained previous price levels and in certain segments were even slightly bullish particularly in top grade milling wheat. Low quality milling wheat and feed wheat are abundant and have been bearish for...
Market Commentary: Bear Scent
This should be the window for U.S. export sales, but it has been strangely quiet. There were rumors of a Chinese purchase this week, but nothing has been confirmed. If exports falter and U.S. farmers produce a bumper crop this summer, the surplus stocks overhang will plunge prices. Speculators...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 - 24 February 2023 Russia had one day off last week which was an Army Day. Although the business week was one day shorter it did not stop Russian grains, and especially wheat, from losing ground. With a record crop and winning several international tenders,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 - 17 February 2023 The Russian domestic grain market was unmistakably bearish. A large crop, increasing export duties, relatively stable domestic currency, and a slower export pace have all contributed. Of course, international sanctions were introduced, a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 - 10 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained relatively stable. Feed wheat remains more expensive than barley, corn trading is animated and is slightly bullish on the domestic market but the key driver for corn demand is the export market. Exp...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The renewal of the Ukraine export corridor deal is seen as increasingly in jeopardy as rhetoric and military resource offers from Western officials continue to escalate. Analysts speculate this could prompt Russia to look for a way to retaliate on the global economy, especia...
Market Commentary: Russian Missiles Spook CBOT; Wheat Posts Bullish Day
On Friday, Russia did what the February WASDE could not, excite the grain markets. Early Friday, a Russian missile(s) headed towards Romania (a NATO country) and prompted Romanian fighter jets to scramble to intercept them. The missiles are reported to have been 22 miles outside of Romanian air...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 January - 3 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable. The only commodity which slightly recovered is barley, but this is the exception rather than the rule. It is a record crop in Russia this season. Corn is under pressure from Ukrainia...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 -27 January 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable and slightly bearish. The feature of the week was feed barley equaling feed wheat in price. Corn slightly depreciated under pressure from Ukraine which has been exporting massive amounts of th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt has reportedly secured a long-term contract with Germany to buy wheat from the European nation, though details on the agreement are sparse. Russia’s total wheat planted area for 2023 is projected to reach 29.05 Mha, down from 29.468 Mha seeded in 2022. Roma...
Market Commentary: Macro and Russians
After a brutal Monday, futures have been clawing back gains the past few days. Trading on Thursday was helped along by a U.S. Q4 2022 GDP number that pleased outside markets. Consumer spending underpinned a 2.9 percent increase in GDP, though there remain warnings of another shoe to drop. That...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 - 20 January 2023 Grain prices remained relatively stable and are most likely to remain stable in the near term. The key factor creating such a “lazy” market is a record high grain crop. Farmers realize that exports are slow and domestic miller...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 - 13 January 2023 The Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) has adjusted preliminary crop size numbers for the 2022 crop. Overall, grain production numbers were adjusted upwards reaching 153.83 MMT versus the previous 150.985 MMT. Wheat production was adjuste...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 - 6 January 2023 With a historic grain crop and the upcoming Russian Orthodox Christmas holidays, traders seem to have taken a winter break which may last the first two first weeks of January rather than one week because in Russia the old new year is celebr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Germany’s winter wheat area is estimated at 2.8 Mha for 2023/24, down 1.9 percent. Winter barley was seeded across 1.3 Mha this year, a 5.1 percent increase. Ukrainian officials are citing concern for the hardiness of winter crops (most notably wheat) as an unusually w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 - 23 December 2022 Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced a record year-end grain production of 159.5 MMT in bunker weight which is up 32.6 MMT from 2021. The Ministry forecasts the final grain production number after dockage at 150 MMT with wheat produ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 – 16 December 2022 Russian grain markets remain bearish with many factors putting pressure on the market including but not limited to export duties, a relatively strong local currency, a record crop, and competition with Ukrainian wheat and corn in t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 - 9 December 2022 Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia is revamping its positions on grains and oilseeds markets thanks to a record crop, high demand for wheat, and other agricultural commodities. Sanctions, increased insurance, and war risks have had...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Flips Recent Trends; Corn, Wheat Rally After Russia Attacks Odessa Port
The CBOT essentially abandoned its existing trends on Monday and volatility was pronounced, especially in the soy complex. For the past few weeks, soybeans and soymeal have been trending higher while soyoil collapsed under the EPA’s new biofuel mandates. That changed almost without warnin...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 Novermber – 2 December 2022 With the UN humanitarian corridor back in place, Russia is reportedly procrastinating with inspections in the Black Sea thus creating a line of international vessels in the Bosporus straight. This is causing Ukraine and the world probl...
Market Commentary: RVOs Sink Soyoil; Funds Hasten Corn, Wheat Selling; Farm Income Rises
The impacts and implications of the EPA’s newest renewable fuel obligations continue to ripple through the CBOT markets. Soyoil futures sold off sharply again on Friday while the soybean market managed to squeeze out a small gain for the day. While the EPA mandates were essentially neutra...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 November 2022 The feature of the week remains the same – extension of the UN humanitarian Black Sea corridor under UN auspices with Turkey being the guarantor of the transaction. While Ukrainians are complaining about terrible delays with Russian inspections a...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Bolsters Corn Futures; Wheat Selloff Accelerates
Corn was the upside leader for the CBOT in a generally quiet day of post-Thanksgiving trading. The Export Sales report offered support for corn but did little for the other major ag commodities. Soybeans traded both sides of unchanged and ended slightly higher while wheat sold off sharply headi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 November 2022 Russia continues to harvest a record crop - over 150 MMT currently. Even more interesting are current Russian stocks and carryover. Russian Statistics Agency reported that as of 1 November, Russia’s grain stocks are 42.6 MMT, up 31 percent from 2...
Market Commentary: Erase Part of Yesterday
As forewarned in yesterday’s commentary, “if there is an extension of the corridor agreement, expect U.S. wheat to tumble hard and fast.” The missile that hit Poland turned out to possibly be an errant output of Ukrainian air defense. Plus, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Serg...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 November 2022 Planting Update Russia’s winter crop is planted, however, due to adverse weather conditions farmers failed to plant about 1 Mha showing only 17.5 Mha versus 18.1 Mha a year ago. In addition to poor weather conditions, farmers who realized Russia h...
Market Commentary: The Wins of War
Negotiations are ongoing between the UN, Turkey, and Russia for extending the Black Sea grain corridor agreement beyond its scheduled expiration this coming Saturday. The Russians are demanding the removal of Western financial hurdles to their own trade, and the U.S. and EU have reportedly prov...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower on Fund Selling; Macro Markets Sharply Higher on CPI Data
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday as fund selling and position liquidation accelerated. The November WASDE did not create much of an additional bullish outlook and funds, which were already in a selling mood, decided to exit long positions. Soybeans were the downside leader on COVID-19 con...
WASDE Wheat
USDA left U.S. wheat exports unchanged at 775 million bushels - with offsetting changes for White wheat and Durum. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 571 million, the lowest level since 2007/08. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchang...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Few Surprises; Wheat Lower as Fund Sells; Cattle Rally Stalled
The November WASDE was largely in-line with expectations and USDA indeed raised the 2022 U.S. corn and soybean yields. Despite the larger crops, carry-out remains tight for both commodities and should be long-term supportive. Soybeans rallied for the day, as much because of news of 462 KMT of e...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 October - 4 November 2022 Russia’s grain harvest continues and has set a record of 150 MMT. Russia’s wheat belt, Krasnodar area, also set a new wheat production record of 10.7 MMT. The Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 7 November, Russia produced...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Sharply Lower in Pre-WASDE Trade; Soy Complex Weaker on Profit Taking
It’s Election Day in the U.S. and the day before the November WASDE. Markets tend to trade small ranges before the elections and the USDA’s report, but today’s trade was unusual as corn and wheat, rather than hunkering down, traded wide-ranging days with sharp losses. Fund sel...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies with Energy Markets; Corn, Wheat Firm in Late-Week Trade
The CBOT ended the week with gains across the board as stronger energy and palm oil markets supported sharp rallies in soyoil and soybeans. The soy complex has been the surprising leader of the CBOT during a week that, at its outset, looked like it would feature major rallies in wheat and corn...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Strong U.S.Dollar, Weak Macroeconomic Markets
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as the impacts of Russia’s return to the Ukraine export corridor agreement and the sharp rally in the U.S. dollar worked against futures. Corn and wheat continued their selloffs and retreated to values near where they ended last week, while soybeans s...
Market Commentary: Russia Taketh and Russia Giveth; But Volatility Remains
What Russia taketh away, Russia apparently giveth back. Just three days after leaving the Ukraine export corridor deal, Russia reversed its weekend decision and re-joined the export agreement. Apparently, President Putin made the decision and agreed to cooperate with the UN, Turkey, and (to a f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24-28 October 2022 Planting Update Winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest in the past five years. As of 31 October, winter crops were planted over 16.3 Mha which is 85 percent of the forecast and about 2 Mha behind past year. It is already cle...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Lead CBOT Rally on China Policy, Brazil Protests
The CBOT rallied for a second straight day, but this time it was soybeans leading the way. The oilseed market moved higher after rumors surfaced that China could be considering ending its zero-tolerance policy for COVID-19, a move that would boost food, fuel, and soybean demand in the country...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA region grain importers are going to suffer greatly if the Russian action ending the Ukraine grain export corridor continues. Ukraine says that the end to the corridor will affect 218 ships --- 95 that are wait...
Market Commentary: Russia Exits Ukraine Export Deal, Wheat Rallies 50 Cents, Corn, Soy Follow
Russian officials announced over the weekend that the country will end its participation in the so-called “export corridor deal” made between the U.N., Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia. The move was in response to weekend drone strikes on a Russian vessel in a Crimean port, which Russia...
OECD Ag Statement; Polls on Agritech and Putin
OECD Ag Statement Thirty-eight agriculture ministers from OECD member countries plus a dozen or so more will meet later this week in Paris to discuss: Building Sustainable Agriculture & Food Systems in a Changing Environment: Shared Challenges, Transformative Solutions. The discussion prece...
European Market Analysis
Ukraine Export Corridor Update The biggest news in European and Black Sea grain markets this week is Russia’s announcement that it will exit the UN/Ukraine/Russia grain “export corridor” deal effective immediately. WPI and other analysts had long suspected Russia would not ren...
Market Commentary: Consensus in Play
After four days of trading this week and thousands of contracts trading hands, as of today’s close, corn is down 0.292 percent, soybeans are down 0.949 percent, and wheat has lost 1.4 percent. And it could all zero out by tomorrow’s close. With little new to factor in, markets are t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 October 2022 Planting Update Russian winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest for the past five years. As of 21 October, winter crops were planted over 15.8 Mha which is 83.2 percent of the forecast and around 2 Mha behind last year. Centr...
Market Commentary: Not Pretty
Though they closed higher, volume was down in corn and soybeans and wheat shaved off some more excess value. The truth is there is just not much to move the market right now. The lower value of the dollar plus rising equities and oil provides some outside support but the fundamentals are stable...
Diesel Inventories at Near Record Lows
Diesel fuel inventories are now at historic lows. As of the week ending 14 October, there were about 25 days of coverage from weekly ending stocks. That’s down from 39 days during 2020 and 2021 over the COVID period, and down from 34 days during the pre-pandemic 2017-2019 period. The day...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 October 2022 Winter Crop Planting Russian winter crop planting is still behind schedule and may be the lowest in the last five years. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for Russia this fall. Expected acreage of winter crops may be as low as 16.5 Mha dropping by...
Market Commentary: Grains Mixed to Start Week; Livestock Markets Rally Sharply
The CBOT ended mixed in low volume to start the week. The only market to see substantial action was soyoil as a bullish NOPA report and Russian attacks on Ukrainian sunflower oil storage facilities created some buying interest. Wheat and soybeans traded both sides of unchanged in quiet volume w...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends on Down Note After Export Sales Disappoint
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week with corn, soybeans, wheat, and both cattle contracts all posting losses by the closing bell. The only real gainer was the lean hog market, where futures rallied to triple-digit gains on relative strength in the cash market. Trading volume was light acr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. wheat production based by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million. However, first quarter total disappearance is the lowest since 1983/84 - wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 October 2022 Russian winter crop planting is behind schedule at only around 50 percent of the forecast and 1 Mha behind last year at the end of September. The Ministry of Agriculture already forecasts next spring planting to reach 82.2 Mha which is up 200,000 ha. The...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Sink on Pre-WASDE Position Adjusting; Soybeans Firm on China Buying Rumors
The CBOT pared Monday’s gains on Tuesday as traders and funds finalized preparations and positions for the October WASDE report on Wednesday. Wheat saw the largest losses but still traded an inside day on the charts, thanks to Monday’s 50+ cent gains. Corn futures pulled back as wel...
Market Commentary: Renewed Russian Attacks Send Wheat Sharply Higher; Corn, Soybeans Follow in pre-WASDE Trade
The CBOT rallied to start the week with wheat posting 55+ cent gains to lead the way. The catalyst for the day’s rally was Russia’s renewed and aggressive shelling of Ukrainian cities, including the capitol of Kyiv. The aggression is casting serious doubts on the already shaky poten...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 30 September wheat production showed 101.9 MMT of bunker weight wheat versus 74.5 MMT a year ago. The average wheat yield increased from 2.81 MT/ha to 3.61 MT/ha. Harvesting was complete on 28.2...
Market Commentary: Holding Pattern
Two-sided, narrow trading continues as uncertainty competes with certainty over where true value is headed. In an almost hands off manner, soybeans failed to trade at its usual 25-cent minimum daily spread, and corn barely broke a 10-cent range. There is plenty of macro suspense – the Rus...
Market Commentary: Two-Sided CBOT Trade Amid Macro-Market Volatility
The CBOT saw two-sided trade on Wednesday that was again heavily influenced by macro markets. Early weakness took corn and soybean futures below major technical support points, only to have those losses pared or reversed when the Bank of England announced a bond-buying program to stabilize the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 22 September wheat production was 99.9 MMT of bunker weight wheat versus 72.9 MMT a year ago. The average wheat yield increased from 2.8 MT/ha to 3.6 MT/ha. Harvesting has been completed on 27.4...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Again on Failed Macro Market Rally; Livestock Futures Selloff Accelerates
The CBOT and U.S. stocks both seemed ready to rally in early trade on Tuesday and both markets broadly marked strong gains in the morning. By early afternoon, however, U.S. stocks had pared gains and fallen into negative territory, and that weakness and a continued “risk off” attitu...
Market Commentary: Wheat Edges Higher as Putin Signals War Escalations; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Harvest Weather
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week with wheat futures continuing to see support from the pending votes in Ukraine about whether four regions will join Russia. Moreover, signals from Russia’s President Putin indicate the country is preparing a significant escalation in the war effort, which wi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 September 2022 As of 15 September, Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 132.3 MMT versus 99.4 MMT a year ago, of which 96.4 MMT is wheat in bunker weight, 23 MMT is barley, and 780,800 MT is corn. These numbers are t...
Market Commentary: Russia’s Annexation Effort Creates Turnaround Tuesday at CBOT
The CBOT rallied sharply on Tuesday with Russia’s actions in Ukraine again at the forefront of the market’s mind. Russia is trying to annex four parts of Ukraine this week and implications that it is building troop reserves and resources suggest no peaceful end to the war is coming...
Market Commentary: Wheat Grinds Higher on Uncertain Ukraine Export Outlook; Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week amid a general lack of fresh news. Corn and soybeans both drifted lower in quiet trade and extended Tuesday’s pullback and reversal, respectively. Wheat futures pushed higher as the Ukraine export corridor agreement remains in jeopardy while U.S. basis level...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 September 2022 As of 7 September, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 125 MMT of which 88.2 MMT is wheat, 21.2 MMT is barley, and 35,000 MT corn (the corn harvest has just started). These numbers are the weight co...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed After Dollar Rallies on Inflation Data
With the September WASDE now past, the CBOT largely entered consolidation mode on Tuesday with a renewed focus on weather as yields are finalized, export demand, and, of yeah, inflation. August inflation was down from July but above expectations, which threw macroeconomic markets into a tizzy a...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the domestic wheat crop in 2022/23 in unchanged in the September WASDE. The projected 2022/23 seasonal average farm price is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $9.00 – which is still a record. The estimate for global supplies was increase by 3.6 million tons to 1,059.6 m...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Russia/Turkey Export Discussion, Falling USD; Bullish WASDE Looms
The CBOT turned higher on the final full day of trading before the September WASDE is released at Noon ET on Monday. Wheat futures led the way as the market is increasingly nervous heading into the weekend after Russian President Putin disparaged the Ukrainian export corridor agreement and set...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Russian Export Comments; Corn, Soybeans Reject Early Rally
The CBOT mostly drifted lower in lackluster trade overnight until Russia’s President Putin made comments that hinted the country has few intentions of extending the Ukrainian grain export corridor agreement. President Putin did not explicitly say that his country won’t extend its ag...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: August–2 September 2022 Grain markets were volatile. While global markets remain bullish, Russian traders are still speculating and expecting a bigger bear. This, of course, is possible at the early stage of the game and especially with a forecast for a record crop...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Dry Weather; Argentine “Soy Dollar” Pressures Soy Complex
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with a weekend of dry weather offering support to the corn market and sparking a 10-cent rally in that commodity. Conversely, soybean futures were under pressure from Argentina’s now-confirmed “soy dollar” that is intended to increase farme...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues with grain production, as of 25 August, at 78.9 MMT which is up 24.8 percent from last year (63.2 MMT). Overall grains and legumes were harvested from 27.6 Mha averaging 3.82 MT/ha producing 105.2 MMT of grains. Rus...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Surprises and Questions Linger Going Forward
The CBOT was strictly focused on the August WASE in Friday’s trade. Price action before the USDA’s noon report featured quiet, weaker spread trade and wheat fell 11-17 cents while corn and soybean futures pushed higher. The report itself was within the range of pre-report estimates,...
Market Commentary: Hogs Post New Highs; Soy Complex Remains Volatile; Corn Pares Gains on Bearish WASDE Fears
The CBOT started the day sharply higher with support from outside markets, which rallied in celebration of the July inflation data. U.S. inflation slowed in July and was viewed as an encouraging sign that the Fed’s interest rate moves are working to control price increases. Despite early...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 – 29 July 2022 Russia’s harvesting campaign continues. The latest forecast for wheat production in Russia is 90 MMT. Wheat exports are expected to beat all previous records and may exceed 42.5 MMT with overall grain exports estimated at 55.4 MMT. However, m...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Leads Soy Complex Higher; Spring Wheat Yields Pressure Futures
The CBOT was mixed in light-volume trading at mid-week with most of the market’s attention focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve and its interest rate decision. The Fed raised its target interest rate by 75 bps as expected and reassured of its commitment to return inflation to near 2 percen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 July 2022 The major development was without a doubt the UN Agreement unblocking Ukrainian ports followed by Russian missiles bombing Odessa port. The agreement was made to help the world with food and to stabilize prices. That’s why the UN was involved in this...
Market Commentary: Weather Premium
In an otherwise benign market situation, there were solid gains today in the grain and oilseed pits. This was in part out of a recognition that U.S. crop ratings are declining, and more unhelpful weather is on the way. It didn’t help that Russia first bombed port structures in Odess...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Russia Blows Up Export Deal - Again
The CBOT was sharply higher after Friday’s agreement between Russia and Ukraine regarding a grain export corridor in the Black Sea was blown up – literally – one day later by Russian shelling of the Port of Odessa. The export agreement pressured futures on Friday and the weeke...
Market Commentary: Deal with the Devil
The announced deal with Russia was a major force on the market today. The quad (Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, the UN) signed an agreement providing a possible pathway for Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports. The deal means that 22 MMT Ukrainian grain and oilseeds could be exported via the Black Sea...
Market Commentary: Rain Makes Grain, Maybe
Markets opened sharply lower with a mid-session effort at a comeback that wasn’t sustainable. The speculators for the most part have evaporated but there may still be too much stock in a crop saving weather reversal. The pendulum tends to over-swing and today’s IGC report reinforces...
Market Commentary: Favorable Weather Pressures CBOT; Hogs Extend Rally on Cash Market Strength
Weather continues to drive the CBOT price action with more rains forecast for the western Corn Belt through the end of July and into August pressuring summer row crops. Corn and soybeans settled lower for the day, and both are testing technical support on the charts at a time when funds are typ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 July 2022 While the world is watching several rounds of negotiations focused on unblocking Ukrainian Black Sea ports, Russia continues exporting grain on business-as-usual terms predominantly to “friendly” countries including Iran, Egypt, Turkey, Syria,...
Surprise ITC Vote on UAN Fertilizer Tariffs, Executive Order on Rail Labor Dispute
Today, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) voted not to impose antidumping (AD) duties on UAN from Russia and Trinidad and Tobago (see prior coverage from 10 June here). This is a surprise outcome; in June the Department of Commerce ruled that UAN exports were unfairly subsidized and...
Market Commentary: CBOT Caps Volatile Week with Quiet Day; Weather Increasingly Important
After a week of stunning volatility, the CBOT ended Friday with quiet trade that saw summer row crops firm while the wheat selloff continued, though in muted fashion. The USDA’s July WASDE wasn’t exactly bearish, but funds are growing tired of holding commodities amid the lack of a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 4-8 July 2022 Russia’s harvest continues showing good results thus supporting an optimistic forecast for wheat production during the 2022/23 season which has just started. Rostov Oblast, which is one of the largest producers and exporters of wheat, is expecting a re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Reversal Rally on Weather, Pre-WASDE Positioning
The CBOT rally that started on Wednesday continued into Friday as traders bought back short positions and added slight length to positions heading into the weekend. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to favor hotter, drier weather into August, which prompted most of this week’s recover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 27 June-1 July 2022 Russia continued harvesting grains and it seems like the 2022 crop will be very close to a record. Russian Grain Union is expecting 84 MMT of grains according to Akradiy Zlochevsky, the head of the Union. The most recent forecasts showed 122 MMT of gr...
4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol
Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasting the total to be roughly equal to 2019, prior to COVID. A few factors are at play for increased car travel: after two years of...
Market Commentary: Some Tweaks but Bearish Weather
Trading was mostly lower before USDA released its Acreage and Stocks reports at noon eastern time today. The reports could have been market movers but much of what they said was already expected to some degree. Once released, they confirmed the bearish tone that was already in play but was poss...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 20-24 June 2022 Russia launched harvesting in the Southern Federal District as well as in seized and annexed Ukrainian Crimea. Other temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, which include parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Lugansk, will be harvesting in a si...
Market Commentary: OVERSOLD
Markets remained under pressure today amid the scare of a recession and a drop in demand. The fear is somewhat overstated in grains and oilseeds since recessions tend to impact banks, manufacturers, and consumer discretionary industries - not so much non-discretionary items like food. Moreover,...
Gutsy USTR; Inflation Beats Exports; Ruble Hell
Gutsy USTR USTR Katherine Tai is in an interagency battle over whether to lift tariffs on China to try and stem inflation, and she’s not backing down in her opposition to such a move. Yesterday she told Congress that, “The China tariffs are, in my view, a significant piece of...
Market Commentary: Technicals Are Breaking Down
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with a collapsing crude oil market and sharp selloffs in European commodity markets pressuring values. Tuesday’s Crop Progress report failed to offer much bullish influence for prices and new crop corn and soybeans pulled back. Wheat attempted to bou...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for slightly lower ending stocks of global wheat. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low. Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production mor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 30 May – 3 June 2022 Russian markets remained bearish, however in certain geographical areas prices were stagnant where sellers are playing a wait and see game. Interestingly, in Siberia wheat depreciated dramatically. In the export market, better margins are attra...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Higher on Spread Trade, Commercial Demand; Wheat Falls Ahead of Russia-Turkey Talks
Non-Russia fundamentals were finally at the forefront of the CBOT on Tuesday with corn and soybean futures rallying on strong commercial demand and bull spreading. Wheat futures pulled back and posted 20-cent losses as Russia and Turkey prepare for what most (including WPI) expect to be unfruit...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rally as Russia Blows Up Hopes for Export Corridor
Over the weekend, Russia intensified its offensive in eastern Ukraine and bombed a Cargill-owned export facility in southern Ukraine. The export facility formerly shipped some 1 MMT of sunflower oil annually. The heightened attacks and export facility bombing cast serious doubt about Russia&rsq...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower as Ukraine Export Corridor Talks Continue; EPA Releases 2022 Biofuel Mandates
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week with cattle and soyoil the only major markets to post gains. China is on its Dragon Boat holiday, which kept markets quiet as few developments in the cash market were expected. USDA’s report of old crop corn sales to unknown destinations offered s...
Flailing on Inflation; Japan’s Beef Craving; Incongruous Messaging
Flailing on Inflation Many months after inflation began eating into pocketbooks, the Biden Administration is on a full court press to try and address the problem. When it comes to food inflation, there is little that can be done. It simply costs more to grow, process, and ship product. When it...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Long Liquidation, Ukraine Export Rumors; Hogs Rally as Shanghai Ends Lockdowns
The CBOT attempted to stabilize overnight and in early-morning trade on Wednesday, but headlines from the Black Sea and persistent long liquidation pushed grains sharply lower for the second straight day. Soybeans found support from old and new crop export sales to China, but gains were limited...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 May 2022 Russian weather forecasting center chief Roman Wilfand is predicting a good grains and oilseeds crop this season. Cool temperatures in May are not critical as long as there is sufficient moisture in the soil. This season temperatures were mild and there wer...
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
Market Commentary: Truth Telling and Caution
An overly cautious market let go of the tease that Russia might negotiate the exit of Ukrainian grain. Vladimir Putin cannot abide the UN’s wishes because it would betray his contention that it is Western sanctions that are causing the food security problem. There was also some positionin...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High
The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister indicated the country is talking with the UN on potential food export corridors in the Black Sea, w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 16-20 May 2022 As of 17 May, spring planting was in line with last year, yet still behind 2020 by 40 percent and 2019 by 30 percent, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Earlier in the season the government was trying to stabilize prices for inputs and banne...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a maximum of 12.25 percent as a measure to control inflation that has been complicated by the Russia/Ukraine “tensions” and relat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 May 2022 Most businesses were closed from 1-9 May as Russians celebrated Soviet holidays. Trade has now resumed and there is a bearish mood on all fronts. Exporters decreased their interest in the Black Sea ports and local currency strengthened thus solidifying the b...
Novel and Magnanimous; Time to Retire; Whole of Government Effort
Novel and Magnanimous Ukraine has 20 MMT of grain that need to be exported over the next three months before the next crop comes off the fields and needs a place to be stored. Without access to its ports, its current export capacity is 1.5 MMT/month. With hoped-for production this summer of an...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 May 2022 Russian grain traders have continued to decrease their bids in the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports which are now 100 percent controlled by Russia. All Ukrainian ports are blocked and vessels loaded earlier cannot move any further. However, the main reason behind...
Geopolitics Rule; Absence Notable; Frontline Agriculture
Geopolitics Rule During the Cold War, U.S. military planners trumped efforts by American agriculture to challenge the trade distorting effects of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). American farmers were told that the CAP is the glue that holds Europe together, and a divided Europe...
Market Commentary: Cinco de Mayo was about Wheat
Action elsewhere was modest but there was large volume in the wheat pits with a second day in a row of strong closes. Corn and soybeans gained a few pennies but remain well off from their highs. USDA’s Export Sales report affirmed the demand for U.S. crops. Old crop wheat sales were high...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 25-29 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2022 grain crop at 123 MMT mostly due to an additional 1 Mha of planted area. Winter crops, which are planted over 19 Mha), are reportedly in good and satisfactory condition. Oilseeds are forec...
Market Commentary: Vegoils Crash on Export Ban Reality; U.S. Corn Planting Slowest Since 2013
The CBOT waivered near contract and all-time highs in various commodities on Monday with better weather forecasts in the U.S. offering pressure. Moreover, a slow realization that Indonesia won’t be able to maintain an export ban on palm oil sent soyoil futures 5 percent lower, a move whic...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that the first 3.5 Mha of spring crops have been planted out of 53.6 Mha forecast. This year’s planting pace is in line with past year’s and around 12 Mha of winter wheat has been fertilized. An est...
Market Commentary: Pause with Mixed Results
Wheat is headed for a haircut this week while soybeans remain in the catbird seat, but the sum of the day was a pause with some profit-taking. Chicago has already added lots of war premium with a dose of weather topping. Today was a breather to see where this all goes, especially U.S. spring pl...
Worker Centric Paradox; Hoarding Disorder; Bipolar Accelerant
Worker Centric Paradox The Biden Administration has called for a “worker centric” trade policy but USTR Katherine Tai is complaining about a dearth of data to support the initiative. The old metric was an assumption that each $1 billion in trade supports 30,000 workers, and that tra...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported expectations that spring crops will be planted on 81.3 Mha of land, an increase of 1 Mha from last year. Agriculture Minister Dmitriy Patrushev expects the crop to reach 123 MMT, with wheat accounting for 80 MM...
Dishonorable Food; Guantes Para Niños in Mexico; Build Back Never
Dishonorable Food Eddy Wax in Politico points out that Western agribusiness companies continue to operate in Russia despite the war on Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy characterizes the agribusiness companies continuing to supply Russia as “flooded with our blood.” B...
Evolving Trade Policy; Russia’s Disinformation War
Evolving Biden Trade Policy Last year the Biden Administration was said to be focusing on prioritizing enforcement in trade policy and not negotiating new trade deals. The President’s foreign policy was said to focus on “the middle class” and promised no new trade talks...
The Great Divorce
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a stark warning to China this week. She basically threatened China economically if it continued to tacitly support Russia. Unless Beijing uses its “special relationship” with Russia to help end the war, she said “it will be increasingl...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Scores New Highs; Wheat, Corn Rally on War and Technical Buying
The CBOT ended sharply higher on Wednesday with corn and wheat leading the way. Higher energy values helped soyoil futures score new contract highs, despite the recent pullback in European sunoil and rapeseed oil values. Wednesday was the last day of the Goldman and index fund rolls, which mean...
Black Sea Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-8 April 2022 During the first week of April, the Russian grain market was predominantly bearish especially on the export front. On the domestic side, the war with Russia in Ukraine, and therefore the expected increased domestic consumer demand, started to raise selling...
Market Commentary: E15 News Sends Corn to New Highs; 40-year High Inflation Keeps Funds Buying
The CBOT rallied sharply Tuesday with news that the Biden Administration will allow E15 ethanol use, news which buoyed corn futures. The Biden Administration broke with the Democrats’ typical ambivalence or distain towards ethanol and announced it will allow higher ethanol blend rates int...
Missing: Economic Resilience
One reason that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine was a sense of immunity against reprisal due to external dependence on Russia’s energy supplies and food. He was wrong about the reprisal calculation but not about dependence. The OECD’s Composite of leading indicators (CLIs) point to e...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Despite Benign WASDE; Soyoil, Soybeans, Corn Post Technically Bullish Days
CBOT markets firmed heading into the April WASDE and continued their strength thereafter, despite a relatively benign USDA report. USDA stuck to its measured approach in estimating losses to South American soybean production as well as the Russia-Ukraine war. USDA’s policy is always to av...
War on Words; Defense Kills Permanence; War Changes Market – But How?
War on Words Autocratic regimes can be dystopian and filled with censorship. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has ordered information sources to not call his assault on Ukraine an “attack,” an “invasion,” or a “war.” Instead, it is to be called a special operati...
Ukraine Miniseries - Part III - Russian Advantage
Owning the Passage Russia is still able and will be able to export commodities. Sanctions do not include food. No one will deny countries like Egypt access to cheaper wheat to feed their people. And many of the countries that have been buying Russian wheat and barley will continue to do so.&nbs...
Market Commentary: CBOT Eases Lower Before Fund Roll, USDA Report; Challenging Weather for U.S., South America
After sharp rallies Monday and Tuesday, traders booked CBOT profits on Wednesday heading into Thursday’s Goldman roll and CONAB report and the USDA April WASDE on Friday. Trading volume was light but, for the day, funds were net sellers and bear spreaders. Brokers estimate funds sold 5,00...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Dismal Crop Ratings
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA showing five-year lows in winter wheat conditions ratings put a bid under KCBT and CBOT wheat Tuesday. Combined with the fact the Russia-Ukraine war shows no sign of slowing down, the entire CBOT rallied in continued “risk-on” mode. A...
Borscht Belt Economics
Borscht is considered comfort food in Russia and the cost to make it is reportedly rising. Bloomberg reports that since the start of the war, the cost of cabbage is up 16 percent and onion prices have risen by 18 percent. Based on FAO data, Russia produces 39.6 pounds per capita of cabbage but...
War and the Food Fight; Development Effectiveness; To Ruble or Not
War and the Food Fight The intra-EU debate over F2F was bubbling under the surface but like lava flowing out of a rupture in the earth’s crust, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unleashed a public fight over its future. French President Emmanuel Macron is using the war to pivot farm...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soybeans Fall to End Week; Aggressive Bear Spreading in Corn; Oil Below $100 on SPR Release
The CBOT capped a volatile week with aggressive bear spreading in corn and sharply lower days in wheat and soybeans. The USDA’s reports from Thursday continued to drive market action on Friday with traders adjusting to the new expectations of record-large soybean acreage and 14-year lows...
Market Commentary: Vlad-atility
Vlad-atility is volatility caused when the market places too much value in what Vladimir Putin might be implying. Yesterday’s commodity lows were aspirational based (or fear based for bulls) as Russia briefly signaled a kinder gentler war. Today there was the realization of what a wrongfu...
Offense is Defense; Gas Emergency; Pesky Bureaucracy
Offense is Defense USTR Katherine Tai knew that she would be facing some strong agriculture voices when she appears this week before the House and Senate committees overseeing her work. Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Nebraska) had already sent a letter demanding to know why more than a year after Preside...
USTR Sleeps Too Much; Weird Trade Obligations; War Profiteering
USTR Sleeps Too Much With hearings before House and Senate trade panels over the next two days, USTR Katherine Tai suddenly says she has “serious concerns” about Mexico’s energy policies. She reportedly did not arrive at those “concerns” until pushed by members of...