May 23 Corn closed at $6.7225/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.8175/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Ma...
Articles
New Trade Agenda; Let Them Eat Pasta; U.S. Debt Limit
New Trade Agenda Members of Congress are upset that President Biden has followed his predecessor’s approach of largely bypassing the legislature when...
Argentina Drought Solution
Each week estimates for Argentina’s crop output decline as this season’s drought takes its toll. Some say it is the worst drought in 60 years,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained unmistakably bearish; even RUB based trading indicators softene...
Market Commentary: CBOT Pares Early Losses Amid Cool U.S. Weather Pattern, Black Sea Risks
The CBOT saw widespread two-sided trade on Tuesday with overnight gains fading quickly after the morning session opened. Markets eventually found a bid nea...
Hungry and Cold; Playing with Forests; Disappointing Free Access
Hungry and Cold Europe’s environmentalists want to go cold turkey when it comes to energy. Greenpeace is suing the EU for what it calls greenwashing...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.98/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Ma...
North Korea Food Policy
North Korea has managed to produce the largest undernourished population of any country, 41.6 percent. Like supporters of Cuba, some blame U.S. sanctions p...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.765/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.965/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Planting Dealy Worries, Black Sea Export Concerns
The CBOT firmed to start the week with new crop futures strengthening on a cooler, wetter planting outlook for the U.S. summer crops. Funds were again on t...
Big Week for SNAP and the Farm Bill
The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on Wednesday, 19 April. As WPI has menti...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The corn harvest has picked up speed and almost 13 percent of the area has been harvested to date. Farmer selling of corn supplies has...
Placating Eastern Europe; Nationalism Not Ideology
Placating Eastern Europe Slovakia joined Poland and Hungary in blocking grain imports from Ukraine, and Bulgaria is contemplating it. Brussels initially th...
Sugar High
Sugar prices are moving to new highs as supplies tighten. Brazil, the world’s largest producer of sugar, saw output this year drop below that of 2020...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt raised the price of wheat it buys from its farmers by 20 percent to $323.90/MT after January-March imports totaled 23 MMT (up 13...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on China Buying, Russia Threats; Cattle Pull Back from Highs
The Goldman roll has dominated this week’s trading action and pressured May futures in grains. Friday concluded the roll and bull spreading emerged t...
Senate Ag Committee Asks for Farm Bill Reserve Fund
On Monday, WPI reported on the House Agriculture Committee’s Budget Views and Estimates letter to the House Budget Committee. As noted, this letter o...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights – Lots of New Numbers
The Market Another week of gains for soybeans and soymeal, with soyoil taking it on the chin. After reducing their net long positions in March, speculators...
Threat from Within; El Niño’s Arrival; Biggest Worry
Threat from Within Dissing both the dollar and U.S. foreign policy was very popular this week. It started of course with French President Emmanuel Macron d...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.6625/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.825/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Poor Demand Forces Major Hog Producers to Revise 2023 Goals The impact of African Swine Fever (ASF) along with poor sales has pushed China’...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.5225/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.67/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Mixed Feelings
The market opened much as the overnight closed but then things shifted for some contracts. Wheat was understandably down on chances for precipitation in so...
Livestock Round Up: Trade and Global Production Outlook
USDA released its Livestock and Poultry quarterly trade update this week, showing a mix of exports coming on to the global market. Global beef trade is for...
Transatlantic Duality; No Ag for Kenya; Black Sea Hurdles
Transatlantic Duality EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis is in Washington this week and had some notable messages. For one, he said that the EU&rsquo...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the week March 31 - April 6, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 135,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 30...
Market Commentary: Russia Says Export Deal “Is Not Good”; Cattle Prices Hit New All-Time Highs
More Russian complaints about the Black Sea export corridor agreement overnight helped push wheat higher in heavy volume. Wheat was the only market to see...
Shadowy Trade Policy; Spinning Economics
Shadowy Trade Policy White House press spokesman John Kirby prefaced President Biden’s trip to Northern Ireland this week by saying, “He’...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.56/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.795/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Ma...
Climate Change and Farm Bill
During the farm bill reauthorization this year, farmers want to protect their support programs including crop insurance. By contrast, environmentalists wan...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish the first week of April aligning with export duty behavio...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts is unchanged relative to last month. Soybean and soybean meal prices ar...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, with unchanged ending stoc...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for slightly higher supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased ending stocks.&n...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Supportive Soybeans, Neutral Corn
The CBOT was mixed heading into the WASDE report with soybeans showing surprising strength and corn paring back some of Monday’s short-covering gains...
WASDE Ups Its Forecast Record 2023 Cattle Price - Again
Today’s WASDE increased its beef production forecast slightly over March’s estimate based on first half of the year feedlot placements which wi...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.51/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.74/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. ...
Farm Bill and Water; Another Threat to IRA; Tortilla Torture
Farm Bill and Water For the first time in history, the federal government may intercede and impose restrictions on the water withdrawal by states in the Co...
Australian Barley Rebound
Australia announced that an agreement had been reached with China that will end the latter’s punitive tariffs on barley from Down Under. For its part...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s grain harvest in 2023 is forecast to drop from 750,000 MT...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Futures Hit New Highs After Record Trade Last Week
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the April WASDE on Tuesday, though the soy complex lagged the grain markets’ gains. Wheat futures were higher...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Danger of Corn Dispute Delay; Dissecting Food Inflation; Farmers Pushed to Edge
Danger of Corn Dispute Delay At the late March hearing before the Finance Committee, Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) pressed USTR Katherine Tai not to dela...
Beef Trade Adjusts to Falling Supply
Just in time for the summer barbeque season, U.S. beef exports and imports are adjusting to the tightening domestic supply situation. The U.S. is the world...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.54/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.785/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Ma...
House Ag Committee Makes Case for Farm Bill Budget
The House Agriculture Committee sent its Budget Views and Estimates letter to the House Budget Committee last month. This letter outlines the Agriculture C...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Poland has temporarily halted the import of grains from Ukraine to mitigate the impact on local market prices. Transit of grain through...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Market Overview Last week’s trading in Argentina was shortened as both Thursday and Friday were holidays. Additionally, before the week...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 7 April is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspect...
Market Commentary: Profits Ahead of Spring Planting
Soymeal, HRW, and beef closed higher today but for everything else it was more of what was seen on Tuesday and Wednesday. Spring has sprung and crops will...
Rhetoric and Economics; CAFO Monster
Rhetoric and Economics USTR Katherine Tai made another valiant attempt this week to defend the Biden Administration’s trade policy. Her reassurances...
Livestock Roundup: Will 2023 See Cattle Expansion or More Contraction?
Negotiated fed cattle prices were $172.45 today, as buying was hurried by the Easter and Good Friday holiday. Prices this week have moved up considerably o...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.435/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.755/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&n...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Falls Below RMB 15/kg A combination of oversupply and tepid demand sent the national average cash price tumbling down last week by...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 24-30, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 193,600 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the p...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.5275/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.82/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower with Better Weather in Sight
The CBOT was lower again at mid-week with funds continuing to pare back long positions amid a light news day. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to feat...
TTC Distractions; Public Research; Dark Shopping Goes Dark
TTC Distractions The U.S. and EU confirmed that the next meeting of the Trade and Technology Council will be next month in Sweden. The agenda supposedly in...
No Rice Crisis
The Economist magazine notes that rice yields are not improving very quickly and that the International Rice Research Institute says that it is the food co...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 March 2023 International traders, after one full year of war in Ukraine, have finally made up their minds to lea...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Red on Turnaround Tuesday
Nearly every major agricultural futures market was lower on Tuesday as the impact of USDA’s recent reports seemed to wear off. The third round of Arg...
Famers Concerns on Interest Rates
Purdue University released its Ag Economy Barometer today; the barometer is a joint project with the CME Group and is based on a monthly survey of 400 prod...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.5375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.915/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Oil versus Grain; Canadian Disappointment
Oil versus Grain In the conflict with Russia, the G7+ has employed a cap on the price of petroleum. The goal is to reduce Russia’s export earnings an...
Large Wheat Importers
Pakistan is finally joining Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nigeria as a wheat importer. The basis has long existed but has taken time to fully develop. Like th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Abu Dhabi’s Al-Ain Mills has signed an agreement with the governmen...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sees Early Strength on OPEC Surprise; Cattle Post Bearish Reversal
Commodity markets received an early bullish surprise after the Saudi-led OPEC+ announced it would cut crude oil output 1.2 million barrels/day starting in...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.5775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.935/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Food Assistance Inconsistencies; China versus West in Africa; Biden Protectionism
Food Assistance Inconsistencies Domestic food assistance programs and their funding levels are a key topic for the 2024 farm bill. Angela Rachidi at the Am...
OPEC Cuts Quotas to Match Actual Production and Establish Price Floor
On Sunday, OPEC + announced voluntary cuts in oil production that will amount to 1.657 million barrels per day (bpd). Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, Gabon,...
USA Land Use Changes
The acres used for crops in the U.S. peaked in 1981 when farm income was low and farmers tried to make up for it by expanding production. The acres used fo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s March wheat exports ended at almost 400 KMT, 80 percent of which went to Brazil. There was also one vessel sold to Chile, one to Co...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s 2022/23 grain exports now total 37.638 MMT, including 5.341 MMT shipped in March. The volume includes 12.88 MMT of whea...
Market Commentary: USDA Reports Surprise on Corn, Soybean Acres; Soy Stocks Tighten
The CBOT was mostly quiet heading into two of the biggest reports of the year – the 1 March Grain Stocks report and the Prospective Planting report...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.605/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights – The Bull Returns
The Market Soybeans were already holding up well this week after hitting a five-month low at the end of last week and then today’s USDA reports hit t...
Congress Votes to Reverse WOTUS; President Promises Veto
On 3 March, WPI reported that the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure passed a “resolution of disapproval”, 30 to 24, which ca...
Lucy Pleases No One; DSP Reform; Planting and El Nino
Lucy Please No One In the cartoon Charlie Brown, Lucy would always remove the football just before Charlie Brown tried to kick it. In the case of EV vehicl...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect b...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
AI and Agriculture; Worker Centric Trade Policy is Dead
AI and Agriculture AI is the rage with some warning it will lead to human extinction, and others comparing its transformative impacts to the internet and s...
Hogs and Pigs Report: Status Quo Numbers
USDA released its first quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the year today. At 72.86 million head, the total inventory as of 1 March was slightly above last...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period March 17-23, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 151,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 21 percen...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks rep...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg...
Friend-shoring Challenge
Friend-shoring or moving supply chains closer to being between like-minded nations doesn’t seem like an agriculture issue but it could become one. Th...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.505/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0475/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The r...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, KCBT Wheat Lead Tuesday Rallies; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with traders increasingly preparing and positioning for the coming acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soy complex...
Unhelpful Timing; Tai Strengths and Weaknesses; IPEF’s Weakness
Unhelpful Timing The U.S. agriculture sector unleashed a pro-trade barrage on the Biden Administration this week and USDA bureaucrats wittingly or unwittin...
Meat Trade Changes
The U.S. is a major meat producer and exporters, and global demand has been growing. At the same time, competition has been growing and U.S. market share h...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.4725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Long Term Energy Outlook: Exporting Ethanol, Importing Biomass Based Diesel
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2023 – that report is the Department of Energy...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain markets have been upset by concerns that Russia could stop its expo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Weather Concerns, Acres and Stocks Expectations
The CBOT was green across the board on Monday, though trading volume remained lighter than normal. Traders were focused on continued news from Russia that,...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.4825/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.98/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...
Farm Bill Foci
While the human diet is a complex affair and animal protein, unlike many other commodities, lacks a title in the Farm Bill, it is the most egregious food t...
Rice is Tight
EU rice consumption has been rising at 1.8 percent CAGR at the same time production has fallen by 30 percent since 2018/19. Italy produces about half of th...
Broiler Production Up, but Not Caught Up with Pre-Pandemic Efficiency
The March WASDE projected broiler production to increase based on recent hatchery data. So far, broiler chicks placed through 18 March are 101 percent of l...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rain fell over the past few days and helped stop the deterioration of the corn crop, but this does not mean the estimate of between 35 and 36 MMT won'...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sun...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
After over a month of delays due to a cyberattack, the weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders' report is back. The attached PDF offers graphical depiction...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.43/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.885/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Head Spinning Fall
The Market Although May soybeans ended a bearish week with a 15.25 cent gain, it could not erase the damage done. In total, the contract lost 48.25 cents f...
Ready to Discuss; Iowa Competitive
Ready to Discuss After previously calling it unsustainable, the Biden Administration has reportedly notified WTO members that it is “ready to discuss...
Higher Octane Fuel Standards for Higher Ethanol Blend Proposed
On 7 March WPI reported: EPA issued a proposed rule on 1 March to provide a waiver of the Clean Air Act that would permit E15 use, through the summer...
Wheat Futures Up 30 Cents on Russia Export Ban Rumors
CBOT and KCBT wheat futures are sharply higher in early morning trade after news broke that Russia may seek to suspend wheat and sunflower oil exports amid...
March Cold Storage Report
February 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were up from January and were 5.8 percent greater than February 2022 as the industry continues to rebuild s...
Market Commentary: Liquidation Week
Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commer...
Uncomfortable Hearing; Real Politik is Complicated
Uncomfortable Hearing Today, USTR Katherine Tai faced the music on the Biden Administration’s trade policy and heard bipartisan disappointment...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.62/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&n...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Pork, Brazilian Beef Exports Resume to China
With Easter retail orders mostly complete, the pork cutout, especially hams, is under pressure. From the beginning of March, the ham primal has dropped 16...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Cash Price Falls Again, Shedding More Than 2 Percent The national average price dropped by RMB .34/kg ($.02/lb.) or nearly 2.2 percent f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 10-16, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 125,600 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 63 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Corn Survives Otherwise Bearish Day; Soy Complex Falls on Weaker Chinese Markets
The CBOT was mostly on the defensive at mid-week with funds and bears remaining in control of futures markets. Wheat was the downside leader with a wave of...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.335/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Kabuki Theater; Miscalculating Farmers; Greed is a Bogeyman
Kabuki Theater Agriculture groups sent a letter to Congress this week asserting that the sector is falling behind competitors due to the lack of new free t...
Thailand Rice Exports
Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic producti...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023 The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soyoil Lead CBOT Lower; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT was red nearly across the board on Tuesday as favorable weather for the U.S. and Europe as well as the renewed Black Sea export corridor agreement...
Miscellaneous Things Being Read
Transatlantic Relations The White House has language on a minerals deal will the EU that will likely be a topic at Thursday’s Senate Finance Committe...
Wheat Can’t Wait
The U.S. agricultural area producing wheat has been declining for many years as better land is switched to more profitable corn and soybeans. Genetic modif...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. ...
Ag Trade Deficit Spurs Interest in Trade Promotion Authority
U.S. ag exports hit a record $196 billion in FY 2022. For FY 2023, however, the latest forecast from USDA in February puts exports at $184.5, down $5.5 bil...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there see...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Sinks Wheat; Markets Brace for Wednesday Fed Meeting
The CBOT started the week with some risk-off trade after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal to extend the Black Sea export corridor agreement over the weeke...
Limiting the Options; Legislators Know Best
Limiting the Options Some policymakers in Brussels have held the view that tight limits on the use of pesticides and fertilizer can succeed if new breeding...
Dreaming of Soybeans
Like many other countries that import soybeans, South Korea is hoping to become more self-sufficient in this oilseed. However, hope runs straight into the...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.33/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0075/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&...
Dutch Farmers’ Party Election
The success of a newly created farmer-based political party in the Netherlands in last week’s elections will establish the party as one of the larges...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is still super boring in Argentina as the market dynamics repeat themselves day after day. There is no farmer selling, millers are buying slowl...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Planting progress and crop conditions for 2023/24 crops in EU are broadly favorable with weather forecast offering comforting outlooks...
Cattle on Feed
March 1 U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 4 percent from 2022 at 11.6 million head for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more. Placements in feedlo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Lack of Export Deal; Soybeans Fall Despite 25-MMT Argy Crop Prediction
Corn was the upside leader overnight with heavy volume kicking off Friday’s trade date. Three days of export sales to China plus rumors (that USDA co...
Cattle on Feed: Placements Drop 7 Percent
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed on feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 March w...
Oilseed Highlights – Down Trend or Bottom?
The Market The May soybean contract experienced its lowest close of 2023 today. At 1476.5, it is now below the 100-day moving average. With a record number...
Testy on U.S. Trade Policy; Trade and GDP; Prospective Plantings
Testy on U.S. Trade Policy USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack testified this week before the Senate Agriculture Committee and while most of the hearing was tame, t...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3425/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.105/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 3-9, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 336,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 26 percent from the pre...
Market Commentary: Dribs and Dabs
On low to average volume, the trading range has tightened. While corn and wheat have been ascendant, today it was corn and soybeans settling higher and whe...
CBDR-RC = New S&DT; Farming Tipping Point; Different Perspectives
CBDR-RC = New S&DT Developing country members of the WTO benefit from Special and Differential Treatment (S&DT), meaning they have far fewer obliga...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3275/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.99/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 March at 96 perce...
Market Commentary: Livestock Markets Collapse on Economic Risks; Grains Grind Higher
Bank liquidity issues and collapses remain at the forefront of the market’s collective mind with investors increasingly looking for safe-haven assets...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices See Their Smallest Increase n Nine Months The Year of the Rabbit kicked off with a sharp reduction in food inflation, as the ave...
Biden to Get Waterboarding; MRL’s Too Flexible
Biden to Get Waterboarding Regulating water quality under the U.S. Clean Water Act has become a political football, changing policies with each change of p...
Pet Food Bonanza
U.S. dog and cat food exports have risen 3500 percent over the past five years, one of the fastest growing categories of trade. It is on a path to rise ove...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.265/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0275/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 March 2023 Grain markets lost all hope for any bullishness due to a global bearish mood, export duties, an...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off SVB Shakiness
Except for the livestock markets, ag futures were broadly higher on Tuesday with investor and trader confidence returning after the weekend shock to the ba...
Eggs Down, but Not Out
Easter is about three weeks away. It is a peak demand for eggs, but production is still lagging. January table-egg production was estimated at 646.9 millio...
ICE and N-P-K
Second thoughts in policymaking are usually better than no thought at all. If it is meant to be, it will. Almost two years ago European politicians agreed...
Borrowing Food Production Capacity
There are many food insecure countries, According to the Economist’s Global Food Security Index most reside in Africa, but there are others around th...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.2075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9625/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, will begin on 23 March in the region. Bus...
Market Commentary: Macroeconomic Shockwaves Create CBOT Jitters
The CBOT’s trade on Monday was initially focused on the weekend failure of two major banks, a fact that sent shockwaves through the macroeconomic mar...
Industrial Farm Policy
China has announced that its state policies to support food production will be increased. Nearly every country has an industrial farm policy. The OECD esti...
Africa Maize Yield Outlook
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) has the lowest average corn yield of any region in the world. Its corn yield is 77 percent lower than that achieved in North Ameri...
Chicken Wing Prices Flying Lower
The NCAA “March Madness” basketball tournament starts this week; that is typically a major driver of demand for chicken wings – with the...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.135/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.845/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s soil moisture maps are, frankly, scary. The moisture profiles are totally dry, and in many cases soils need more than 200...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.1725/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.7925/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Firm to End Punishing Week; Technical Weakness Pushes Cattle, Soyoil Lower
After a bloodbath of a week, the CBOT finally showed some signs of support and higher trade on Friday. Wheat was actually the upside leader (yes, you read...
Oilseed Highlights – One Step Back, Two Forward
The Market Soymeal drove ever higher this week but soybeans and soyoil took it in the shorts, so to speak. Soybeans continue to be pressured by Brazil&rsqu...
Our Complaints Too; Success of Options; IPEF Wisdom; Into the Fire
Our Complaints Too EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was at the White House today to initiate a bilateral agreement with President Biden on join...
President’s Budget Submission and the Farm Bill
Yesterday was a big step toward the farm bill process via the Administration’s submission of the President’s FY 2024 budget proposal, at least...
Market Commentary: Weird, Weird Day
Today’s market opened generally tracking the higher close in the overnight session. It was bolstered by more cuts in expected Argentina production. B...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE and Voluntary COOL
Yesterday’s WASDE had a very bullish outlook for fed cattle prices, raising them again to an annual average of $162/cwt – the previous record a...
Please Don’t Make Me Graduate; Jones Act Burden; Record Presidency
Please Don’t Make Me Graduate Growing up is hard to do and least developed countries (LDC’s) are resisting losing their special trade benefits...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.115/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.6575/bushel, down $0.2175 from yesterday's close.&n...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for Feb 24 - Mar 2, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 266,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 6 percent from the pr...
China In-Country Analysis
Market Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China Set New Record for January Even with China’s economy sputtering and the reversal of the zero COVID-19 policy i...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s r...
WASDE Corn
CORN: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel...
Market Commentary: WASDE Features Deep Cuts to Argy Crops, U.S. Corn Exports
The CBOT was, as it usually is, solely focused on the USDA’s WASDE report that came out at Noon today. Heading into the report, ag futures were mixed...
High Stakes in Mexico Corn Case; Livestock Scale Questions; Digital Competition
High Stakes in Mexico Corn Case AMLO has said he is ready to go to a dispute settlement case to defend his ban on GMO corn from the U.S. He is arguing that...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.255/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.875/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 February – 3 March 2023 Russian grain markets maintained previous price levels and in certain segments were eve...
Market Commentary: Short-Covering Lifts Wheat; Soy Complex Falls on Plunging Crude and Soyoil
Tuesday’s CBOT trade was largely devoted to pre-WASDE report positioning and position evening. Wheat futures staged a mild turn-around and settled a...
Meat Needs Work, Know Cheese, Not Europe, Can’t Beat ‘em, Join ‘em
Meat Needs Work The U.S. meat industry is feeling good because demand for its product remains strong. Inflation and economic doubts have shoppers economizi...
Year Round E15 - Eventually from EPA, Sooner from Congress?
EPA issued a proposed rule on 1 March to provide a waiver of the Clean Air Act that would permit E15 use, through the summer months, in eight Midwestern st...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.98/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Tomato Economics
U.S. domestic farm policy critics like U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) have a point when they note that the Farm Bill encourages the production of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s soybean import estimates have been dropped from 2.5 MMT...
Market Commentary: Red-Hot Meal Market Pulls Soybeans Higher; Funds Retain Bearish Control of Wheat
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with just two full trading days before the March WASDE report. There was a good bit of pre-report positioning that occ...
Good Bets for the Farm Bill
The 2023 farm bill process is under way with both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees having several hearings completed or scheduled. On 16 March,...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.37/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9525/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close.&n...
Policy Shorts
Procedural Action on Mexico: The Biden Administration has formally requested technical consultations with Mexico under the USMCA to discuss the proposed GM...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The weather continues to give no respite for Argentina’s corn crop. The country is experiencing a heat wave with few precedents at a time of rel...
Market Commentary: Bear Scent
This should be the window for U.S. export sales, but it has been strangely quiet. There were rumors of a Chinese purchase this week, but nothing has been c...
Tai’d Down on Trade
The Biden Administration has done the impossible – it has united Congressional Democrats and Republicans on an issue, and not in a good way. It...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – The Market Thaws
The Market Tuesday was a rough day in the market and while the May soyoil contract lost a fraction on the week, both May soybeans and soymeal logged anothe...
It’s the Regulations that Matter
The House Agriculture Committee’s first hearing this year on the 2023 farm bill strayed a bit from the technical jurisdiction of farm bill programs o...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie
It was a mixed day but mostly lower volume (except for soyoil) as the market appears generally comfortable with current values. Even Russia’s charge...
Tooling Up; Ignoring the Elephant; Buffaloes and Cows
Tooling Up Yesterday, USTR issued its annual report for 2022 and the President’s 2023 Trade Policy Agenda. The 354-page document will no doubt be rea...
Livestock Roundup: Policy Proposals Lagging the Cattle Cycle
Since COVID and the bottlenecks it created in livestock slaughter, populism has been the hallmark of agriculture policy debates on Capitol Hill, especially...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 17-23, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 284,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 16 percent from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Bullish Day as Fund Selling Slows; Corn, Cattle Forge Reversals
Tuesday’s market collapse found profit taking and some fresh commercial and long buying interest that pushed futures higher. The corn market saw the...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Domestic Live Hog Cash Price Rebounds by More than 7 Percent The recent procurement of frozen pork for state reserves combined with some warmer w...
AMLO Channels Inner Trump; Trump Stumbles; Industrial Policy Warning
AMLO Channels Inner Trump Thousands of Mexicans protested in the streets against Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s decision to water down t...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3575/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.1/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. M...
Directional Trade Deficit
The Biden Administration halted new trade agreements until it said it could make Americans more competitive with policies like Build Back Better. However,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 - 24 February 2023 Russia had one day off last week which was an Army Day. Although the business week was one day sho...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Join the Selloff; Liquidation Trade Obliterates Technical Support
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday with corn breaking below key technical support points and wheat posting another set of selloff lows. Paris wheat futu...
January Consumer Spending Up, Money Supply Down
The M2 money supply for January decreased for the second consecutive month. M2 is the amount of cash, held by banks, travelers’ checks, savings...
Limits on Trade Blocs; Short Supply Chain BS; Small Farm Solution BS
Limits on Trade Blocks De-friending, reshoring, carbon border measures and other narrow views of global trade may have their limits. The EU’s Sabine...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.055/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to have to devalue its currency again according to Soci...
Market Commentary: Fund Selling Punishes Corn, Wheat; Brazil’s Progress More Influential than Argy Weather
Funds were still aggressive net sellers to start the week and drove wheat and corn futures to new selloff lows. Both markets also received fundamental pres...
China Driving Changes in Brazilian Beef Production
Brazil last week reported a case of atypical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE); it was discovered in a seven-year-old cow in the northern state of Par...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.435/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.1/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Although there has been a change in the weather pattern since the beginning of the year and Argentina has seen more rains, the precipitation was heter...