The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Friday that Q1 2022 GDP dropped 1.4 percent and the Q4 2021 GDP was revised to 6.9 percent. Analyst&rsq...
Articles
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine is claiming that Russian forces have stolen “several hundred thousand tonnes” of grain from Ukrainian areas occupie...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There are interesting dynamic’s with Argentina’s old crop wheat. The first is an escalation in demand, not only from Brazil but als...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Week Mixed Amid Bullish U.S., Brazilian Weather
Light volume trade, profit taking, and spread reversals led to a mixed CBOT on Friday. Wheat futures were sharply lower as showers across the Plains booste...
Loan Rates/Crop Insurance: Tools for Ukraine/Food Aid
The Administration is asking Congress for $33 billion to address food shortages caused by the war in Ukraine and to assist Ukraine. Of that total, $500 mil...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.135/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.5575/bushel, down $0.3 from yesterday's close. Ju...
Risky Trade; Reassessing China
Risky Trade How much Ukraine produces, and exports are critical questions for global agricultural markets. With its own Black Sea ports blocked, some grain...
Oilseed Highlights – Adaptations Continue
Indonesia put the turd in the punch bowl this week and caused vegetable oil futures to rocket to record highs. Its export embargo of palm oil is temporary...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.135/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.8575/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Mixed for Good Reasons
There was much to contemplate today and that was reflected in the unsettled nature of various contracts and the mixed finish. Leading wheat and soybean con...
Livestock Round-Up: Looking at Cattle Herd Indicators
The final numbers from livestock marketing for red meat production are in for 2021. Cash receipts are up 23 percent from 2020 to $101 billion. Cattle were...
Aid Dependency; New Trade Vision
Aid Dependency Many poorer nations are dependent of foreign aid, including food donations, but so are some agriculture groups. Because of the war in Ukrain...
Export Sales
Export Sales for April 15-21, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 32,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 65...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.1225/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.9125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: Vegoils Rally, Pull Soybeans Higher; Brazil Sees Driest April in 17 Years; Corn Firms on Export Rumors
U.S. farmers are being patient marketing old crop corn and soybean stocks amid ongoing weather concerns in the U.S. Cash soy crush margins are near record...
Unfair Bullfight; War Dissect
Unfair Bullfight A hearing yesterday by the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee over the marketing of cattle was less equal than it appeared. Legislation spo...
Cuba Pipedream
Proponents claim that Cuba’s agricultural imports from the U.S. could double this year to $500 million. They have increased by 72 percent in the firs...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Rise as Beijing Prepares for Lockdown After reaching a low of 25 novel coronavirus related deaths per day on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that the first 3.5 Mha of spring crops have been planted out of 53.6 M...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Wheat; Corn, Soy End Mixed Ahead of First Notice Day
The CBOT was mixed and primarily focused on the weather – both in the U.S. and Brazil – on Tuesday. The most recent Crop Progress report offere...
Cattle Market Hearings
The Senate Agriculture Committee today had a hearing on cattle markets. Tomorrow, the House Agriculture Committee will convene a hearing on the same topic...
Truth About Food Safety; Truth About Deforestation; War’s Impact
Truth About Food Safety FDA Commissioner Robert Califf is on Capitol Hill this week testifying on his agency’s reported inability to move forward on...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.015/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.95/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. ...
StatsCanada Surprises
StatsCanada released the results of its survey of farmers on their planting intentions this year. The survey was conducted during March and, given developm...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The end of Ramadan means that the Middle East and North Africa will be on...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed on Crop Progress, China’s COVID-19 Conundrum, and Indonesia’s Clarification
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with the soy complex trading sharply lower after Indonesia’s President clarified that the country’s palm oil expor...
Update and Outlook on HPAI
Following is an update on the impact and ongoing issues related to the outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Since the first detection in...
U.S. – China Rift; India’s Manipulations; Then and Now
U.S. – China Rift There is a split within Washington policy circles over the continuation of Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. Backing t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.98/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The pace of corn harvesting improved last week and with a 3.8 percent weekly progress, the total harvested area reached 23.2 percent of the...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed up 2 percent - cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head...
Market Commentary: Palm Oil Export Ban Create Soyoil High; Funds Sell Corn, Soybeans Despite Hot, Dry Brazilian Weather
The CFTC was mostly lower to end the week with funds emerging as profit-takers in corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat. The soyoil market scored a new contrac...
RECPie for Nothing; Let Them Eat Broccoli; Mickey D’s Push-back
RECPie for Nothing Philippines Trade Assistant Secretary Allan B. Gepty gave assurance that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and its...
Cattle on Feed: Third Consecutive Monthly Record
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 12.1 million, 2 percent above April 2021, and the hig...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.89/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.7525/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close...
Exploding Vegetable Oil
Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to impact agricultural commodity markets and especially vegetable oils. Sunoil hit a record price of $2,570/MT in R...
Market Commentary: Pause with Mixed Results
Wheat is headed for a haircut this week while soybeans remain in the catbird seat, but the sum of the day was a pause with some profit-taking. Chicago has...
Export Sales
Export Sales for April 8-14, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 26,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 73 percent from t...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 April at 100.3 pe...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.9925/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.765/bushel, down $0.21 from yesterday's close.&n...
WTO at the Firefight; Dairy = Lumber
WTO at the Firefight WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is headed to Washington ahead of the planned MC-12 meeting but she will not like what she fin...
Market Commentary: Firm Spreads Push Corn, Soy Higher; Wheat Falls on Rain in Forecast
The CBOT waivered on Wednesday with weakness continuing from Tuesday’s trade early in the day. Wheat futures weighed on other markets as better chanc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.1/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.975/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...
Worker Centric Paradox; Hoarding Disorder; Bipolar Accelerant
Worker Centric Paradox The Biden Administration has called for a “worker centric” trade policy but USTR Katherine Tai is complaining about a de...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID-19 Case Count Up, Deaths Fall, Lockdowns Spread Since the end of March, the trailing seven-day average of novel coronavirus cases in Ch...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported expectations that spring crops will be planted on 81.3 Mha of land, an...
Market Commentary: Profits and a Breather
Commodity futures opened rather volatile, dancing around both sides of nowhere before settling down to a mixture of some profit-taking, and a breather base...
Milk Price Impact of Re-Making the Make Allowance
Yesterday, WPI reported on the forecast for dairy for 2022., noting that this month’s WASDE raised the all-milk price forecast for 2022 to a record h...
Dishonorable Food; Guantes Para Niños in Mexico; Build Back Never
Dishonorable Food Eddy Wax in Politico points out that Western agribusiness companies continue to operate in Russia despite the war on Ukraine. Ukrainian P...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reportedly considering buying wheat directly from s...
Market Commentary: Wheat Ratings Worsen; Corn Soyoil Hit New Highs; Ethanol Run Rates Fall on Railcar Tightness
The CBOT was sharply higher with continued dry weather in the southern Plains pushing wheat higher while corn scored new contract highs on fund buying and...
High Milk Prices and the Dairy Herd
This month’s WASDE raised the all-milk price forecast for 2022 to a record high at $25.80/cwt. That was an increase of $0.75/cwt from the March WASDE...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $8.1325/bushel, up $0.23 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.2875/bushel, up $0.2425 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Evolving Trade Policy; Russia’s Disinformation War
Evolving Biden Trade Policy Last year the Biden Administration was said to be focusing on prioritizing enforcement in trade policy and not negotiatin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina saw just a three-day week last week with the truckers’ strike and the Friday closure of the CBOT. There were, therefore, no arrivals o...
China Tensions and Trade
Using trade as a bullying tool did not start and end with Donald Trump. Most recently, Russia’s Vladimir Putin limited food exports to so-called &ldq...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.9025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.045/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 15 April is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspec...
Market Commentary: New Records Amid Low Volume
It was generally low volume in the futures market today as traders focus on the three-day holiday and the Goldman roll is no longer around to move the numb...
Cattle Contraction to be Felt Soon
We’re a week out from the April Cattle on Feed report; as noted on 25 March, the 1 March Cattle on Feed report showed record monthly inventories for...
The Great Divorce
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a stark warning to China this week. She basically threatened China economically if it continued to tacitly suppor...
Export Sales
Export Sales for April 1-7, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 96,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 39 percent from the previous week an...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Scores New Highs; Wheat, Corn Rally on War and Technical Buying
The CBOT ended sharply higher on Wednesday with corn and wheat leading the way. Higher energy values helped soyoil futures score new contract highs, despit...
Bipolar World; GMO Hobgoblins
Bipolar World Countries were already divided before Russia’s war on Ukraine, but the conflict has brought it into plain sight. The WTO has been unabl...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.835/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.2125/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.&nb...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID-19 Case Count in Shanghai Continues to Surge According to various news reports and social media, government officials in Shanghai have...
Black Sea Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-8 April 2022 During the first week of April, the Russian grain market was predominantly bearish especially on the export front. On...
Oilseeds Respond to Prices
Oilseed prices may have peaked for now, but the bull market is impacting consumption and production. We say “may” because the Rosario Grains Ex...
Market Commentary: E15 News Sends Corn to New Highs; 40-year High Inflation Keeps Funds Buying
The CBOT rallied sharply Tuesday with news that the Biden Administration will allow E15 ethanol use, news which buoyed corn futures. The Biden Administrati...
Lamb: The Other Red Meat
Sunday is the Easter holiday; traditionally it is a high point for lamb consumption and production increases leading into the holiday. But the last two wee...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.7625/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.125/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Carbon Market Challenges
The Russian war on Ukraine has shorted the EU energy market and forced resumed use of coal. This in turn has driven up the need for more carbon allowances...
Ethanol Sobriety Check
Politics and not economics drove the White House announcement today to approve year-round E15 fuel sales under an emergency waiver of the Clean Air Act&rsq...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt soybean/soymeal forecasts by USDA FAS show an increase in soybean i...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.645/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.89/bushel, up $0.3075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies, Ukraine Harvest Forecast; Corn Mixed Despite China Buying
The CBOT started the week on a high noted in early trade, but the soy complex quickly turned lower and pulled old crop corn futures lower too. Wheat was th...
Farmer Sentiment at Post COVID Low
According to the Purdue University/CME Ag Economy Barometer, farmers’ outlook is at its lowest level post COVID. The index was 113 in March, which is...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance and confirms that yields will be below initial expectations and highly varied. Last week, farmers...
Food Safety Trouble; Pariah at the WTO; F2F Recalculation
Food Safety Trouble An extensive research effort by Politico on food regulation at the U.S. Food & Drug Administration reveals a troubled agency. Among...
Missing: Economic Resilience
One reason that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine was a sense of immunity against reprisal due to external dependence on Russia’s energy supplies and fo...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s UGA grain traders’ union said it looks for the country’s wheat harvest to fall 45 percent to 18.2 MMT this...
WASDE Soyoil
SOYOIL: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased exports and lower ending stocks. Despite relatively high soybean oil prices, export sales ha...
WASDE Soymeal
SOYMEAL: in the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting that lower U.S. soybean meal exports will be offset by slightly higher domestic disappearance. Soybea...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased U.S. exports and seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are raised 25 million...
WASDE Corn
CORN: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting unchanged U.S. ending stocks due to offsetting changes to feed and residual use and corn used for ethano...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA reduced U.S. exports by 15 million bushels, to 785 million, as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets. P...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Despite Benign WASDE; Soyoil, Soybeans, Corn Post Technically Bullish Days
CBOT markets firmed heading into the April WASDE and continued their strength thereafter, despite a relatively benign USDA report. USDA stuck to its measur...
War on Words; Defense Kills Permanence; War Changes Market – But How?
War on Words Autocratic regimes can be dystopian and filled with censorship. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has ordered information sources to not call his...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.6875/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.515/bushel, up $0.315 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Struggling to Keep Up
WASDE Meets Expectations Today’s release of the April USDA WASDE was not as interesting as last week’s Prospective Plantings report but that is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
WASDE Forecasts for Meat and Livestock
Today’s WASDE forecast for total red meat and poultry production was down from last month based on a slightly higher beef production forecast, but mo...
Ukraine Miniseries - Part III - Russian Advantage
Owning the Passage Russia is still able and will be able to export commodities. Sanctions do not include food. No one will deny countries like Egypt access...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Storm
After several days of adding war premiums and one day before a USDA WASDE report, the market was mostly uneventful today. Volume was up in corn, soybeans a...
Narrow Thinking; Food versus Fuel, Again
Narrow Thinking First COVID and now the war in Ukraine have reinvigorated protectionism and thoughts of self-sufficiency. However, economists studying the...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.5775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.2/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Round-Up: Exceptional Beef Export Demand
While beef retail prices have cooled a bit in the U.S. from last year’s record domestic demand, export demand remains exceptional. Beef exports total...
Export Sales
Export Sales for March 25-31, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 156,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 65 percent from the previous week,...
Ukraine Miniseries: Part II
This is the second in a three-part series of reports from WPI’s analysts in Ukraine. This article involves their opinion of Ukrainian agriculture in...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.565/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.3825/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: CBOT Eases Lower Before Fund Roll, USDA Report; Challenging Weather for U.S., South America
After sharp rallies Monday and Tuesday, traders booked CBOT profits on Wednesday heading into Thursday’s Goldman roll and CONAB report and the USDA A...
Great Power Struggle; Supply Response Needed; Pressuring Mexico
Great Power Struggle Deceased U.S. Senator John McCain called Russia a “gas station masquerading as a country” but it is also a major grocery s...
China In-Country Analysis
Cultural History April Kicks Off with Annual Qingming Festival or Ancestors’ Day China’s domestic market began the first full week of April on...
The Growing HPAI Impact
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues to wreak havoc. So far this week (and it is only Wednesday), APHIS announced an outbreak in Texas in a c...
Ukraine Miniseries: Part I
This is the first of a three-part special series of reports from WPI’s analysts in Ukraine. The first installment looks at what the war’s impac...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 March-1 April 2022 Last week the domestic market went bearish. Prices for staple grains plummeted to relatively traditional level...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Dismal Crop Ratings
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA showing five-year lows in winter wheat conditions ratings put a bid under KCBT and CBOT wheat Tuesday. Com...
NBT Beats GMO; CBAM Cost
NBT Beats GMO As in Europe, genetically modified crops have been controversial in India where only Bt cotton is approved for cultivation. However, scientis...
Borscht Belt Economics
Borscht is considered comfort food in Russia and the cost to make it is reportedly rising. Bloomberg reports that since the start of the war, the cost of c...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Israel, and South Africa are target countries in the...
Market Commentary: CBOT Adds War-Risk Premium Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT rallied to start the week after news broke out this weekend of Russian shelling and bombardments of Ukrainian grain storage facilities and export...
Another Congressional Hearing on Corporate Greed and Profiteering Fueling Inflation
The Senate Budget Committee will hold a hearing tomorrow entitled “Corporate Profits are Soaring as Prices Rise: Are Corporate Greed and Profiteering...
War and the Food Fight; Development Effectiveness; To Ruble or Not
War and the Food Fight The intra-EU debate over F2F was bubbling under the surface but like lava flowing out of a rupture in the earth’s crust, Russi...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.505/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.1025/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
White Commodities
The U.S. rice industry motivated its politicians to attack USTR Katherine Tai last week as she made the rounds on Capitol Hill. The main point of their ire...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress at a solid pace and has reached almost 15 percent of the planted area. This is slightly below the...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine increased its forecast of area to be sown to spring crops to 13.4 Mha, which would be down 3.5 Mha from 2021. The latest foreca...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.35/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $9.845/bushel, down $0.215 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soybeans Fall to End Week; Aggressive Bear Spreading in Corn; Oil Below $100 on SPR Release
The CBOT capped a volatile week with aggressive bear spreading in corn and sharply lower days in wheat and soybeans. The USDA’s reports from Thursday...
SPR Release: Third Time a Charm?
Yesterday, President Biden announced what will be his Administration’s third release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and it will be...
Ukraine Changes Agriculture; Ukraine Changes Economies; Ukraine Affects Trade Policy
Ukraine Changes Agriculture CoBank analysts say that the war in Ukraine will have long term impact on grain markets. Indeed, if one just considers the foll...
Oilseeds Highlights: Soybeans are King
The big news of the week is USDA’s Prospective Plantings report showing farmers plan to sow more acres to soybean than to corn. If that outcome is re...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: Market Mover
The larger than usual volume across many contracts puts the exclamation point on today’s market action. USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarte...
Livestock Round-Up: Hogs and Pigs Report Shows Herd Down Across the Board
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for December through February. The report was bullish showing contraction across the herd. Th...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.4875/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.06/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close.&n...
New World Order; IPR Reversal; Antitrust Failure; Oil Boogeyman
New World Order Challenges posed to the West by both China and Russia has President Biden and geopolitical experts talking about a new world order. There h...
Export Sales
Export Sales for March 18-24, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 95,000 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 39 percent from the previous week...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health Coronavirus Lockdown Hits Shanghai, Case Rates Fall With rapid spread of the COVID-19 Omicron variant, health authorities in China have impos...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.38/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Vlad-atility
Vlad-atility is volatility caused when the market places too much value in what Vladimir Putin might be implying. Yesterday’s commodity lows were asp...
Offense is Defense; Gas Emergency; Pesky Bureaucracy
Offense is Defense USTR Katherine Tai knew that she would be facing some strong agriculture voices when she appears this week before the House and Senate c...
Ukrainian Grain and Oilseeds Market
Regional Update Ukraine: Planting According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of 24 March, in 11 regions of Ukraine, spring grains and oilseeds were...
Market Commentary: Positive Russia-Ukraine Talks Send Oil, Wheat, Corn Sharply Lower
The CBOT saw significant selling pressure and long liquidation after “constructive peace talks” developed between Russia and Ukraine early on T...
Swinging to Profitability
USDA’s survey-based Costs and Returns analysis for U.S. crops will not be updated until 2 May 2022, but it already looks like farming is more profita...
Anticipating Planting Intentions and Surveying Planting Conditions
The USDA’s quarterly stocks and planting intentions numbers will be released on Thursday. Given the volatile situation globally, drought impacts, and...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.2625/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.1425/bushel, down $0.4275 from yesterday's clos...
USTR Sleeps Too Much; Weird Trade Obligations; War Profiteering
USTR Sleeps Too Much With hearings before House and Senate trade panels over the next two days, USTR Katherine Tai suddenly says she has “serious con...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s National Grain Co intends to build a new grain termi...
Market Commentary: Oil Slips on Shanghai Lockdown, Pressures Soy Complex; Traders Liquidate Risk Before Reports
Risk-off ahead of the Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports was the theme du jour. The soy complex and wheat futures led the CBOT lower with corn...
Prop 12 Challenge; Weird War; Farm Bill Calculus
Prop 12 Challenge When the U.S. Congress passed Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) in 2010, the Vice President Joe Biden declared it a “big [expletive]...
The President’s Fiscal Year 2023 Budget
The White House unveiled the President’s FY 2023 Budget request today, which is but one step in a long and usually volatile budget debate. The Presid...
Feed versus Food Grains
The skyrocketing cost of wheat has turned rice into the go-to food grain. It helps that global surplus rice stocks are at a record high. High wheat prices...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.485/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.4525 from yesterday's close.&n...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The corn harvest had its biggest weekly advance since it started with 3.2 percent of fields harvested last week. That brings the total...
Market Commentary: Hogs Hit New Highs on Cash Strength; CBOT Grinds Higher Ahead of Report Week
The CBOT finished the week on a mostly higher note with corn, soybeans, and wheat all posting gains on Friday. Trade continues to be choppy and two-sided w...
Record Cattle on Feed, Shrinking Feeder Cattle Supply
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 12.2 million, right in line with expectations, and as...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $11.0225/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close. ...
Miracle Economics; Age of Petroleum
Miracle Economics Leaders in the Biden Administration are taking credit for expanding market access in Japan for U.S. beef. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseeds Update – Machinations in a Tight Market
Production and Incentives Late planted soybeans in Argentina are filling pods and are still too dry. In Brazil, the soybean harvest is 69 percent completed...
Market Commentary: Out of Steam
It was mostly a turnaround day as risk is priced in as much as desired and there were some bearish indicators: South America is getting moisture and has b...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.4825/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.8575/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close.&n...
Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow and it could be a record – for the second month in a row. Analysts’ pre-report estimates p...
Export Sales
Export Sales for March 11-17, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 155,700 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 51 p...
Age of Nuclear; Miscellaneous Shorts; War’s Impact
Age of Nuclear The shock to the fossil fuels market coupled with aspirations for a low emissions future has combined to give renewed impetus to nuclear pow...
Market Commentary: Inflation Bites Stocks, Boosts Commodities; Meat Stocks Grow Sharply
The CBOT was sharply higher overnight amid wide support from European ag markets and global energy values. The day session, however, saw traders take a mor...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $11.0575/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&...
War Wrecks WTO; Crisis Leads to Reform
War Wrecks WTO The WTO was splintered before Russia attacked Ukraine but now progress on key issues is even less likely. The splintering at the UN and betw...
Sabotaging Ukrainian Agriculture
EU leaders are accusing Moscow of deliberately destroying Ukraine’s food production and infrastructure. They charge that Russia has a long history of...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health New COVID-19 Cases and Related Deaths Continue to Rise With shutdowns and movement restrictions in place across major metropolitan areas in C...
Black Sea Regional Analysis: Ukrainian Grain and Oilseeds Market
Planting Update According to the Ministry of Agriculture, on 22 March the spring planting campaign started in the southern regions of Ukraine. Spring grain...
Market Commentary: Marking Time While Watching Ukraine
The CBOT marked another day of choppy, low-liquidity trading with old crop corn and wheat futures moving lower while soyoil and soybeans traded higher. New...
Russia-Ukraine War Commodity Perspective
According to reports from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense intelligence operations, Russia has been purposefully bombing and/or commandeering agricultur...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.53/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $11.1825/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.&n...
The War and Food Policy; Food versus Fuel II; Upstart Challenges
The War and Food Policy In a return to the Iraq’s war’s admonishment that you are either with us or against us, U.S. President Joe Biden travel...
Food as a Weapon
If Russia can use nuclear weapons to blackmail the world, China has the surplus food stocks to coerce its national ambitions. Global ending stocks for majo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has announced that Abu Dhabi Ports Group will build a multipurpose...
Market Commentary: Lack of Peace Talks Sends Wheat Higher; Corn and Soybeans Post Bullish Breakouts
Early morning fund buying pushed the CBOT higher and markets held onto those gains through the day’s trading. The failure of meaningful peace talks t...
Canadian Pacific Rail Lockout
Since the beginning of this month, a labor dispute among rail workers in Canada has been looming over the already tight fertilizer market. As of last week,...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.5625/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.555 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Musik für die US-Landwirtschaft; Energy Outlook; Africa Rising
Musik für die US-Landwirtschaft Russian aggression in eastern Europe has turned EU policy on its head and the latest evidence is German Finance Minist...
Food Dollar Winners and Losers
U.S. President Joe Biden has frequently attacked the companies processing food products, while lamenting the business struggles of farmers. He has told com...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Drought is a growing concern for parts of Europe, especially the southwest countries. The latest crop monitoring report from the EU Com...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s farmers are showing a lot of concern about next year’s planting season. Argentina imports more than 60 percent of t...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.4175/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.6375/bushel, down $0.3425 from yesterday's clos...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Profit Taking; Corn, Soy Charts Bullish; Another La Nina?
The CBOT ended weaker as few traders want to add risk heading into a weekend where unpredictable political and headline risk will be key features. The mark...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
War Changes Everything; TRIPS Quid Pro Quo; Buyer’s Regret
War Changes Everything A month ago, the focus in Europe was greening agriculture and stopping climate change but the war has reversed the course in Brussel...
Oilseeds Update – Knock-on Effects
Another week of war in Ukraine and another week of dramatic impacts in the global oilseeds market. Not as dramatic as the wheat and corn market, but policy...
House Ag Panel Explores What Should Drive Climate Policy
The House Ag Committee held a hearing yesterday, “A 2022 Review of the Farm Bill: The Role of USDA Programs in Addressing Climate Change.” As w...
Market Commentary: Back Green for St. Paddy’s
The see-sawing this week over the war reflects the folly of buying the rumor. Hopes that Vladimir Putin will end the war ended after he said he would conti...
Livestock Round-Up: Hamburger Economy Impact on Cattle Inventory
The cattle herd looks to be in for some more contraction. February cow slaughter was up 12.2 percent over last year – though February 2022 was down 9...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.545/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.98/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales for March 4-10, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 145,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 53 percent from the previous week...
Front Door Attack; War, Covid and Trade; English Tea Time
Front Door Attack The recently enacted omnibus spending bill included $2.5 million to support a “White House Conference on Food, Nutrition, Hunger an...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.3/bushel, down $0.28 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.6925/bushel, down $0.85 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Peace Talk Rumors; Macro Markets Jump on Rate Hike and Chinese Policy Shift
Rumors and statements from Russia and Ukraine regarding a possible ceasefire agreement pressured CBOT markets Wednesday while sending U.S. stocks sharply h...
IPEF Sloganeering; Rail Trouble; Chicken Facts
IPEF Sloganeering Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi is in Australia this week, reportedly to pitch the Biden Administration’s vision for...
Fed Commodity Risk
The first of a projected seven interest rate hikes was announced today by the U.S. Federal Reserve. In contradiction with the Biden White House, the Fed sa...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID-19 Returns with a Vengeance Similar to its quasi-island province to the south, mainland China’s effort to control the impac...
Black Sea Analysis: Agriculture in the Ukrainian War Zone
Editor's Note: Despite the war going on all around them, this update is provided by WPI’s consultants in Kyiv. We know that Ana and her new baby have...
Market Commentary: Oil Selloff Pressures Soy Complex; Corn, Wheat Rally on Fund Buying
Corn and wheat futures settled higher Tuesday with influence from the ongoing war in Ukraine, poor U.S. winter wheat ratings, and falling crude oil prices...
Lamb/Mutton Remain Minor
U.S. lamb and mutton exports were up 38 percent in January, but the market is still nothing to write home about. U.S. exports are swamped by the level of i...
Happy 10th Anniversary KORUS FTA
Last week’s WASDE raised the forecast for beef export. A large reason was Korea, so far the top export destination for U.S. beef. Indeed, today is th...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.58/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $11.5425/bushel, up $0.58 from yesterday's close. ...
Value of Grain; Under-Staffed; US-Korea FTA Assessment
Value of Grain The loss of corn exports from Ukraine is revealing the value of technology biases. While the EU is rich and chose to loosen pesticide standa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Ramadan is expected to begin on 2 April and end 1 May with the holiday of...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.4825/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.9625/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's clos...
Market Commentary: CBOT Reacts to Russia’s Grain Export Ban and Argentina’s End of Soy Product Exports
The CBOT ended on a mixed note to start the week as policy developments drove much of the day’s price action. News that Argentina is suspending soy p...
Fertilizer and Cost of Production
As the debate on next year’s farm bill gets underway, commodity groups are considering what role the cost of production should play in crop programs...
Food Crisis Coming
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization prepared a slideshow for the G7 agriculture ministers that shows more food inflation even under the most o...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Interfax reports that Russia is considering a full ban on the export of wheat, barley, maize, and rye starting Tuesday, 15 March that w...
Reckoning Amongst “Friends”; Chemical Contradiction; Expanding the Quiver
Reckoning Amongst “Friends” U.S. and Chinese officials met in Rome today and the unmistakable message from Washington is that Beijing will pay...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Regional Updates Argentina’s Rumored Corn and Wheat Taxes Rumors of an increase in wheat and corn export taxes appeared in Argentina this week. There...
Market Commentary: End of Week is the Only Certainty
After a wild week, the final trading session featured lower volume and measured moves. The result of the five days of trading included small gains for corn...
Omnibus Spending Bill Passed – Ag Spending Up 7.4 Percent
Yesterday, the Senate passed an omnibus funding bill to keep the government open through the end of the fiscal year. It cleared the Senate 68-31 and on Wed...
Hot Markets, Precious Land; Food Constraints and Access
Hot Markets, Precious Land Before Russia invaded Ukraine and sent agricultural commodity markets reeling, the focus was on improving farming’s contri...
Oilseeds Update: Massive Disruptions and Change
This week’s USDA WASDE report was a blip on the screen compared with the intense focus and disruption of Russia warring on Ukraine. Due to the scale...
Market Commentary: Split Decision
While wheat gave back another big chunk of its recent days’ gains, soybeans and corn kept the rally going. However, volume was muted, except in the S...
War is Global PR Battle; Untrade Agenda
War is Global PR Battle The Russian war on Ukraine is a global PR battle and Western media has the advantage. While Vladimir Putin has monopoly control, hi...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.5575/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. May 22 Wheat closed at $10.87/bushel, down $1.145 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Round-Up: Biotech, Gene Editing Policy
This week, the FDA’s Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) approved, or more accurately declared, a “low risk determination” for heat tole...
Export Sales
Export Sales for February 25-March 3, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 307,200 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 2 percent from the previou...
WASDE Soyoil - March 2022
Soybean oil: price is raised 2 cents to 68.0 cents per pound...