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Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.7225/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.8175/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

New Trade Agenda; Let Them Eat Pasta; U.S. Debt Limit

New Trade Agenda Members of Congress are upset that President Biden has followed his predecessor’s approach of largely bypassing the legislature when...

Argentina Drought Solution

Each week estimates for Argentina’s crop output decline as this season’s drought takes its toll. Some say it is the worst drought in 60 years,...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 April 2023  Russia’s grain markets remained unmistakably bearish; even RUB based trading indicators softene...

Hungry and Cold; Playing with Forests; Disappointing Free Access

Hungry and Cold Europe’s environmentalists want to go cold turkey when it comes to energy. Greenpeace is suing the EU for what it calls greenwashing...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.98/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

North Korea Food Policy

North Korea has managed to produce the largest undernourished population of any country, 41.6 percent. Like supporters of Cuba, some blame U.S. sanctions p...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.765/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.965/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. ...

Big Week for SNAP and the Farm Bill

The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on Wednesday, 19 April.  As WPI has menti...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina The corn harvest has picked up speed and almost 13 percent of the area has been harvested to date.  Farmer selling of corn supplies has...

Placating Eastern Europe; Nationalism Not Ideology

Placating Eastern Europe Slovakia joined Poland and Hungary in blocking grain imports from Ukraine, and Bulgaria is contemplating it. Brussels initially th...

Sugar High

Sugar prices are moving to new highs as supplies tighten. Brazil, the world’s largest producer of sugar, saw output this year drop below that of 2020...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Egypt raised the price of wheat it buys from its farmers by 20 percent to $323.90/MT after January-March imports totaled 23 MMT (up 13...

Senate Ag Committee Asks for Farm Bill Reserve Fund

On Monday, WPI reported on the House Agriculture Committee’s Budget Views and Estimates letter to the House Budget Committee. As noted, this letter o...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Oilseed Highlights – Lots of New Numbers

The Market Another week of gains for soybeans and soymeal, with soyoil taking it on the chin. After reducing their net long positions in March, speculators...

Threat from Within; El Niño’s Arrival; Biggest Worry

Threat from Within Dissing both the dollar and U.S. foreign policy was very popular this week. It started of course with French President Emmanuel Macron d...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.6625/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.825/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Poor Demand Forces Major Hog Producers to Revise 2023 Goals The impact of African Swine Fever (ASF) along with poor sales has pushed China’...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.5225/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.67/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary: Mixed Feelings

The market opened much as the overnight closed but then things shifted for some contracts. Wheat was understandably down on chances for precipitation in so...

Livestock Round Up: Trade and Global Production Outlook

USDA released its Livestock and Poultry quarterly trade update this week, showing a mix of exports coming on to the global market. Global beef trade is for...

Transatlantic Duality; No Ag for Kenya; Black Sea Hurdles

Transatlantic Duality EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis is in Washington this week and had some notable messages. For one, he said that the EU&rsquo...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for the week March 31 - April 6, 2023   Wheat:  Net sales of 135,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 30...

Shadowy Trade Policy; Spinning Economics

Shadowy Trade Policy White House press spokesman John Kirby prefaced President Biden’s trip to Northern Ireland this week by saying, “He’...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.56/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.795/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

Climate Change and Farm Bill

During the farm bill reauthorization this year, farmers want to protect their support programs including crop insurance. By contrast, environmentalists wan...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 April 2023  Russia’s grain markets remained bearish the first week of April aligning with export duty behavio...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts is unchanged relative to last month.  Soybean and soybean meal prices ar...

WASDE Corn

USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, with unchanged ending stoc...

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s April forecast for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for slightly higher supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased ending stocks.&n...

Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Supportive Soybeans, Neutral Corn

The CBOT was mixed heading into the WASDE report with soybeans showing surprising strength and corn paring back some of Monday’s short-covering gains...

WASDE Ups Its Forecast Record 2023 Cattle Price - Again

Today’s WASDE increased its beef production forecast slightly over March’s estimate based on first half of the year feedlot placements which wi...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.51/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.74/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. ...

Farm Bill and Water; Another Threat to IRA; Tortilla Torture

Farm Bill and Water For the first time in history, the federal government may intercede and impose restrictions on the water withdrawal by states in the Co...

Australian Barley Rebound

Australia announced that an agreement had been reached with China that will end the latter’s punitive tariffs on barley from Down Under. For its part...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s grain harvest in 2023 is forecast to drop from 750,000 MT...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Beef Trade Adjusts to Falling Supply

Just in time for the summer barbeque season, U.S. beef exports and imports are adjusting to the tightening domestic supply situation. The U.S. is the world...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.54/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.785/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

House Ag Committee Makes Case for Farm Bill Budget

The House Agriculture Committee sent its Budget Views and Estimates letter to the House Budget Committee last month. This letter outlines the Agriculture C...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Poland has temporarily halted the import of grains from Ukraine to mitigate the impact on local market prices. Transit of grain through...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Grains Market Overview  Last week’s trading in Argentina was shortened as both Thursday and Friday were holidays. Additionally, before the week...

Good Friday

Tomorrow, 7 April is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspect...

Market Commentary: Profits Ahead of Spring Planting

Soymeal, HRW, and beef closed higher today but for everything else it was more of what was seen on Tuesday and Wednesday. Spring has sprung and crops will...

Rhetoric and Economics; CAFO Monster

Rhetoric and Economics USTR Katherine Tai made another valiant attempt this week to defend the Biden Administration’s trade policy. Her reassurances...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.435/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.755/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&n...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Price Falls Below RMB 15/kg A combination of oversupply and tepid demand sent the national average cash price tumbling down last week by...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for March 24-30, 2023   Wheat:  Net sales of 193,600 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the p...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.5275/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.82/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower with Better Weather in Sight

The CBOT was lower again at mid-week with funds continuing to pare back long positions amid a light news day. The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to feat...

TTC Distractions; Public Research; Dark Shopping Goes Dark

TTC Distractions The U.S. and EU confirmed that the next meeting of the Trade and Technology Council will be next month in Sweden. The agenda supposedly in...

No Rice Crisis

The Economist magazine notes that rice yields are not improving very quickly and that the International Rice Research Institute says that it is the food co...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 March 2023  International traders, after one full year of war in Ukraine, have finally made up their minds to lea...

Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Red on Turnaround Tuesday

Nearly every major agricultural futures market was lower on Tuesday as the impact of USDA’s recent reports seemed to wear off. The third round of Arg...

Famers Concerns on Interest Rates

Purdue University released its Ag Economy Barometer today; the barometer is a joint project with the CME Group and is based on a monthly survey of 400 prod...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.5375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.915/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Oil versus Grain; Canadian Disappointment

Oil versus Grain In the conflict with Russia, the G7+ has employed a cap on the price of petroleum. The goal is to reduce Russia’s export earnings an...

Large Wheat Importers

Pakistan is finally joining Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nigeria as a wheat importer. The basis has long existed but has taken time to fully develop. Like th...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Abu Dhabi’s Al-Ain Mills has signed an agreement with the governmen...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.5775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.935/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...

USA Land Use Changes

The acres used for crops in the U.S. peaked in 1981 when farm income was low and farmers tried to make up for it by expanding production. The acres used fo...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentina’s March wheat exports ended at almost 400 KMT, 80 percent of which went to Brazil. There was also one vessel sold to Chile, one to Co...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s 2022/23 grain exports now total 37.638 MMT, including 5.341 MMT shipped in March. The volume includes 12.88 MMT of whea...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.605/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  May...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Oilseed Highlights – The Bull Returns

The Market Soybeans were already holding up well this week after hitting a five-month low at the end of last week and then today’s USDA reports hit t...

Congress Votes to Reverse WOTUS; President Promises Veto

On 3 March, WPI reported that the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure passed a “resolution of disapproval”, 30 to 24, which ca...

Lucy Pleases No One; DSP Reform; Planting and El Nino

Lucy Please No One In the cartoon Charlie Brown, Lucy would always remove the football just before Charlie Brown tried to kick it. In the case of EV vehicl...

Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports

All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect b...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&nb...

AI and Agriculture; Worker Centric Trade Policy is Dead

AI and Agriculture AI is the rage with some warning it will lead to human extinction, and others comparing its transformative impacts to the internet and s...

Hogs and Pigs Report: Status Quo Numbers

USDA released its first quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the year today. At 72.86 million head, the total inventory as of 1 March was slightly above last...

Export Sales

  Export Sales and Shipments for the period March 17-23, 2023  Wheat:  Net sales of 151,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 21 percen...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg...

Friend-shoring Challenge

Friend-shoring or moving supply chains closer to being between like-minded nations doesn’t seem like an agriculture issue but it could become one. Th...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.505/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0475/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023  Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The r...

Unhelpful Timing; Tai Strengths and Weaknesses; IPEF’s Weakness

Unhelpful Timing The U.S. agriculture sector unleashed a pro-trade barrage on the Biden Administration this week and USDA bureaucrats wittingly or unwittin...

Meat Trade Changes

The U.S. is a major meat producer and exporters, and global demand has been growing. At the same time, competition has been growing and U.S. market share h...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.4725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain markets have been upset by concerns that Russia could stop its expo...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.4825/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.98/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

Farm Bill Foci

While the human diet is a complex affair and animal protein, unlike many other commodities, lacks a title in the Farm Bill, it is the most egregious food t...

Rice is Tight

EU rice consumption has been rising at 1.8 percent CAGR at the same time production has fallen by 30 percent since 2018/19. Italy produces about half of th...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Rain fell over the past few days and helped stop the deterioration of the corn crop, but this does not mean the estimate of between 35 and 36 MMT won'...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

After over a month of delays due to a cyberattack, the weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders' report is back. The attached PDF offers graphical depiction...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.43/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.885/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilseed Highlights – Head Spinning Fall

The Market Although May soybeans ended a bearish week with a 15.25 cent gain, it could not erase the damage done. In total, the contract lost 48.25 cents f...

Ready to Discuss; Iowa Competitive

Ready to Discuss After previously calling it unsustainable, the Biden Administration has reportedly notified WTO members that it is “ready to discuss...

Wheat Futures Up 30 Cents on Russia Export Ban Rumors

CBOT and KCBT wheat futures are sharply higher in early morning trade after news broke that Russia may seek to suspend wheat and sunflower oil exports amid...

March Cold Storage Report

February 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were up from January and were 5.8 percent greater than February 2022 as the industry continues to rebuild s...

Market Commentary: Liquidation Week

Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commer...

Uncomfortable Hearing; Real Politik is Complicated

Uncomfortable Hearing  Today, USTR Katherine Tai faced the music on the Biden Administration’s trade policy and heard bipartisan disappointment...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.3175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.62/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&n...

Livestock Roundup: U.S. Pork, Brazilian Beef Exports Resume to China

With Easter retail orders mostly complete, the pork cutout, especially hams, is under pressure. From the beginning of March, the ham primal has dropped 16...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Cash Price Falls Again, Shedding More Than 2 Percent The national average price dropped by RMB .34/kg ($.02/lb.) or nearly 2.2 percent f...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for March 10-16, 2023   Wheat:  Net sales of 125,600 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 63 percent from the...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.335/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Kabuki Theater; Miscalculating Farmers; Greed is a Bogeyman

Kabuki Theater Agriculture groups sent a letter to Congress this week asserting that the sector is falling behind competitors due to the lack of new free t...

Thailand Rice Exports

Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic producti...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023    The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory...

Miscellaneous Things Being Read

Transatlantic Relations The White House has language on a minerals deal will the EU that will likely be a topic at Thursday’s Senate Finance Committe...

Wheat Can’t Wait

The U.S. agricultural area producing wheat has been declining for many years as better land is switched to more profitable corn and soybeans. Genetic modif...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.3/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. ...

Ag Trade Deficit Spurs Interest in Trade Promotion Authority

U.S. ag exports hit a record $196 billion in FY 2022. For FY 2023, however, the latest forecast from USDA in February puts exports at $184.5, down $5.5 bil...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there see...

Limiting the Options; Legislators Know Best

Limiting the Options Some policymakers in Brussels have held the view that tight limits on the use of pesticides and fertilizer can succeed if new breeding...

Dreaming of Soybeans

Like many other countries that import soybeans, South Korea is hoping to become more self-sufficient in this oilseed. However, hope runs straight into the...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.33/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0075/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&...

Dutch Farmers’ Party Election

The success of a newly created farmer-based political party in the Netherlands in last week’s elections will establish the party as one of the larges...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Wheat is still super boring in Argentina as the market dynamics repeat themselves day after day. There is no farmer selling, millers are buying slowl...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Planting progress and crop conditions for 2023/24 crops in EU are broadly favorable with weather forecast offering comforting outlooks...

Cattle on Feed

  March 1 U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 4 percent from 2022 at 11.6 million head for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more. Placements in feedlo...

Cattle on Feed: Placements Drop 7 Percent

USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed on feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 March w...

Oilseed Highlights – Down Trend or Bottom?

The Market The May soybean contract experienced its lowest close of 2023 today. At 1476.5, it is now below the 100-day moving average. With a record number...

Testy on U.S. Trade Policy; Trade and GDP; Prospective Plantings

Testy on U.S. Trade Policy USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack testified this week before the Senate Agriculture Committee and while most of the hearing was tame, t...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.3425/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $7.105/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for March 3-9, 2023   Wheat:  Net sales of 336,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 26 percent from the pre...

Market Commentary: Dribs and Dabs

On low to average volume, the trading range has tightened. While corn and wheat have been ascendant, today it was corn and soybeans settling higher and whe...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.3275/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.99/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 March at 96 perce...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Prices See Their Smallest Increase n Nine Months The Year of the Rabbit kicked off with a sharp reduction in food inflation, as the ave...

Biden to Get Waterboarding; MRL’s Too Flexible

Biden to Get Waterboarding Regulating water quality under the U.S. Clean Water Act has become a political football, changing policies with each change of p...

Pet Food Bonanza

U.S. dog and cat food exports have risen 3500 percent over the past five years, one of the fastest growing categories of trade. It is on a path to rise ove...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.265/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0275/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 March 2023    Grain markets lost all hope for any bullishness due to a global bearish mood, export duties, an...

Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off SVB Shakiness

Except for the livestock markets, ag futures were broadly higher on Tuesday with investor and trader confidence returning after the weekend shock to the ba...

Eggs Down, but Not Out

Easter is about three weeks away. It is a peak demand for eggs, but production is still lagging. January table-egg production was estimated at 646.9 millio...

ICE and N-P-K

Second thoughts in policymaking are usually better than no thought at all. If it is meant to be, it will. Almost two years ago European politicians agreed...

Borrowing Food Production Capacity

There are many food insecure countries, According to the Economist’s Global Food Security Index most reside in Africa, but there are others around th...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.2075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9625/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, will begin on 23 March in the region. Bus...

Market Commentary: Macroeconomic Shockwaves Create CBOT Jitters

The CBOT’s trade on Monday was initially focused on the weekend failure of two major banks, a fact that sent shockwaves through the macroeconomic mar...

Industrial Farm Policy

China has announced that its state policies to support food production will be increased. Nearly every country has an industrial farm policy. The OECD esti...

Africa Maize Yield Outlook

Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) has the lowest average corn yield of any region in the world. Its corn yield is 77 percent lower than that achieved in North Ameri...

Chicken Wing Prices Flying Lower

The NCAA “March Madness” basketball tournament starts this week; that is typically a major driver of demand for chicken wings – with the...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.135/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.845/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentina Argentina’s soil moisture maps are, frankly, scary. The moisture profiles are totally dry, and in many cases soils need more than 200...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.1725/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.7925/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Oilseed Highlights – One Step Back, Two Forward

The Market Soymeal drove ever higher this week but soybeans and soyoil took it in the shorts, so to speak. Soybeans continue to be pressured by Brazil&rsqu...

Our Complaints Too; Success of Options; IPEF Wisdom; Into the Fire

Our Complaints Too EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was at the White House today to initiate a bilateral agreement with President Biden on join...

President’s Budget Submission and the Farm Bill

Yesterday was a big step toward the farm bill process via the Administration’s submission of the President’s FY 2024 budget proposal, at least...

Market Commentary: Weird, Weird Day

Today’s market opened generally tracking the higher close in the overnight session. It was bolstered by more cuts in expected Argentina production. B...

Livestock Roundup: WASDE and Voluntary COOL

Yesterday’s WASDE had a very bullish outlook for fed cattle prices, raising them again to an annual average of $162/cwt – the previous record a...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.115/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.6575/bushel, down $0.2175 from yesterday's close.&n...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for Feb 24 - Mar 2, 2023.  Wheat:  Net sales of 266,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 6 percent from the pr...

China In-Country Analysis

Market Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China Set New Record for January Even with China’s economy sputtering and the reversal of the zero COVID-19 policy i...

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s r...

WASDE Corn

CORN: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks.  Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of...

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month.  The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel...

Market Commentary: WASDE Features Deep Cuts to Argy Crops, U.S. Corn Exports

The CBOT was, as it usually is, solely focused on the USDA’s WASDE report that came out at Noon today. Heading into the report, ag futures were mixed...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.255/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.875/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27 February – 3 March 2023   Russian grain markets maintained previous price levels and in certain segments were eve...

Year Round E15 - Eventually from EPA, Sooner from Congress?

EPA issued a proposed rule on 1 March to provide a waiver of the Clean Air Act that would permit E15 use, through the summer months, in eight Midwestern st...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.3425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.98/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Tomato Economics

U.S. domestic farm policy critics like U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) have a point when they note that the Farm Bill encourages the production of...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s soybean import estimates have been dropped from 2.5 MMT...

Good Bets for the Farm Bill

The 2023 farm bill process is under way with both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees having several hearings completed or scheduled. On 16 March,...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.37/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9525/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close.&n...

Policy Shorts

Procedural Action on Mexico: The Biden Administration has formally requested technical consultations with Mexico under the USMCA to discuss the proposed GM...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn The weather continues to give no respite for Argentina’s corn crop. The country is experiencing a heat wave with few precedents at a time of rel...

Market Commentary: Bear Scent

This should be the window for U.S. export sales, but it has been strangely quiet. There were rumors of a Chinese purchase this week, but nothing has been c...

Tai’d Down on Trade

The Biden Administration has done the impossible – it has united Congressional Democrats and Republicans on an issue, and not in a good way.  It...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilseed Highlights – The Market Thaws

The Market Tuesday was a rough day in the market and while the May soyoil contract lost a fraction on the week, both May soybeans and soymeal logged anothe...

It’s the Regulations that Matter

The House Agriculture Committee’s first hearing this year on the 2023 farm bill strayed a bit from the technical jurisdiction of farm bill programs o...

Market Commentary: Steady Eddie

It was a mixed day but mostly lower volume (except for soyoil) as the market appears generally comfortable with current values. Even Russia’s charge...

Tooling Up; Ignoring the Elephant; Buffaloes and Cows

Tooling Up Yesterday, USTR issued its annual report for 2022 and the President’s 2023 Trade Policy Agenda. The 354-page document will no doubt be rea...

Livestock Roundup: Policy Proposals Lagging the Cattle Cycle

Since COVID and the bottlenecks it created in livestock slaughter, populism has been the hallmark of agriculture policy debates on Capitol Hill, especially...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for February 17-23, 2023   Wheat:  Net sales of 284,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 16 percent from...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Domestic Live Hog Cash Price Rebounds by More than 7 Percent The recent procurement of frozen pork for state reserves combined with some warmer w...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.3575/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $7.1/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  M...

Directional Trade Deficit

The Biden Administration halted new trade agreements until it said it could make Americans more competitive with policies like Build Back Better. However,...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 - 24 February 2023   Russia had one day off last week which was an Army Day. Although the business week was one day sho...

January Consumer Spending Up, Money Supply Down

The M2 money supply for January decreased for the second consecutive month.  M2 is the amount of cash, held by banks, travelers’ checks, savings...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $7.055/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to have to devalue its currency again according to Soci...

China Driving Changes in Brazilian Beef Production

Brazil last week reported a case of atypical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE); it was discovered in a seven-year-old cow in the northern state of Par...

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.435/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $7.1/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Although there has been a change in the weather pattern since the beginning of the year and Argentina has seen more rains, the precipitation was heter...

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