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Stagflation Driving Toward a Recession?

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Friday that Q1 2022 GDP dropped 1.4 percent and the Q4 2021 GDP was revised to 6.9 percent. Analyst&rsq...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine is claiming that Russian forces have stolen “several hundred thousand tonnes” of grain from Ukrainian areas occupie...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat  There are interesting dynamic’s with Argentina’s old crop wheat. The first is an escalation in demand, not only from Brazil but als...

Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Week Mixed Amid Bullish U.S., Brazilian Weather

Light volume trade, profit taking, and spread reversals led to a mixed CBOT on Friday. Wheat futures were sharply lower as showers across the Plains booste...

Loan Rates/Crop Insurance: Tools for Ukraine/Food Aid

The Administration is asking Congress for $33 billion to address food shortages caused by the war in Ukraine and to assist Ukraine. Of that total, $500 mil...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.135/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.5575/bushel, down $0.3 from yesterday's close.  Ju...

Risky Trade; Reassessing China

Risky Trade How much Ukraine produces, and exports are critical questions for global agricultural markets. With its own Black Sea ports blocked, some grain...

Oilseed Highlights – Adaptations Continue

Indonesia put the turd in the punch bowl this week and caused vegetable oil futures to rocket to record highs. Its export embargo of palm oil is temporary...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.135/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.8575/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary: Mixed for Good Reasons

There was much to contemplate today and that was reflected in the unsettled nature of various contracts and the mixed finish. Leading wheat and soybean con...

Livestock Round-Up: Looking at Cattle Herd Indicators

The final numbers from livestock marketing for red meat production are in for 2021. Cash receipts are up 23 percent from 2020 to $101 billion. Cattle were...

Aid Dependency; New Trade Vision

Aid Dependency Many poorer nations are dependent of foreign aid, including food donations, but so are some agriculture groups. Because of the war in Ukrain...

Export Sales

Export Sales for April 15-21, 2022. Wheat:  Net sales of 32,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 65...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.1225/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.9125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close...

Unfair Bullfight; War Dissect

Unfair Bullfight A hearing yesterday by the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee over the marketing of cattle was less equal than it appeared. Legislation spo...

Cuba Pipedream

Proponents claim that Cuba’s agricultural imports from the U.S. could double this year to $500 million. They have increased by 72 percent in the firs...

China In-Country Analysis

Public Health COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Rise as Beijing Prepares for Lockdown  After reaching a low of 25 novel coronavirus related deaths per day on...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that the first 3.5 Mha of spring crops have been planted out of 53.6 M...

Cattle Market Hearings

The Senate Agriculture Committee today had a hearing on cattle markets. Tomorrow, the House Agriculture Committee will convene a hearing on the same topic...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.015/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.95/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. ...

StatsCanada Surprises

StatsCanada released the results of its survey of farmers on their planting intentions this year. The survey was conducted during March and, given developm...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The end of Ramadan means that the Middle East and North Africa will be on...

Update and Outlook on HPAI

Following is an update on the impact and ongoing issues related to the outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Since the first detection in...

U.S. – China Rift; India’s Manipulations; Then and Now

U.S. – China Rift There is a split within Washington policy circles over the continuation of Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. Backing t...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.98/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina The pace of corn harvesting improved last week and with a 3.8 percent weekly progress, the total harvested area reached 23.2 percent of the...

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed up 2 percent - cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head...

RECPie for Nothing; Let Them Eat Broccoli; Mickey D’s Push-back

RECPie for Nothing Philippines Trade Assistant Secretary Allan B. Gepty gave assurance that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and its...

Cattle on Feed: Third Consecutive Monthly Record

USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 12.1 million, 2 percent above April 2021, and the hig...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.89/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.7525/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close...

Exploding Vegetable Oil

Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to impact agricultural commodity markets and especially vegetable oils. Sunoil hit a record price of $2,570/MT in R...

Market Commentary: Pause with Mixed Results

Wheat is headed for a haircut this week while soybeans remain in the catbird seat, but the sum of the day was a pause with some profit-taking. Chicago has...

Export Sales

Export Sales for April 8-14, 2022.  Wheat:  Net sales of 26,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 73 percent from t...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 April at 100.3 pe...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.9925/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.765/bushel, down $0.21 from yesterday's close.&n...

WTO at the Firefight; Dairy = Lumber

WTO at the Firefight WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is headed to Washington ahead of the planned MC-12 meeting but she will not like what she fin...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.1/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.975/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...

Worker Centric Paradox; Hoarding Disorder; Bipolar Accelerant

Worker Centric Paradox The Biden Administration has called for a “worker centric” trade policy but USTR Katherine Tai is complaining about a de...

China In-Country Analysis

Public Health COVID-19 Case Count Up, Deaths Fall, Lockdowns Spread Since the end of March, the trailing seven-day average of novel coronavirus cases in Ch...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported expectations that spring crops will be planted on 81.3 Mha of land, an...

Market Commentary: Profits and a Breather

Commodity futures opened rather volatile, dancing around both sides of nowhere before settling down to a mixture of some profit-taking, and a breather base...

Milk Price Impact of Re-Making the Make Allowance

Yesterday, WPI reported on the forecast for dairy for 2022., noting that this month’s WASDE raised the all-milk price forecast for 2022 to a record h...

Dishonorable Food; Guantes Para Niños in Mexico; Build Back Never

Dishonorable Food Eddy Wax in Politico points out that Western agribusiness companies continue to operate in Russia despite the war on Ukraine. Ukrainian P...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reportedly considering buying wheat directly from s...

High Milk Prices and the Dairy Herd

This month’s WASDE raised the all-milk price forecast for 2022 to a record high at $25.80/cwt. That was an increase of $0.75/cwt from the March WASDE...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $8.1325/bushel, up $0.23 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.2875/bushel, up $0.2425 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Evolving Trade Policy; Russia’s Disinformation War

Evolving Biden Trade Policy  Last year the Biden Administration was said to be focusing on prioritizing enforcement in trade policy and not negotiatin...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina saw just a three-day week last week with the truckers’ strike and the Friday closure of the CBOT. There were, therefore, no arrivals o...

China Tensions and Trade

Using trade as a bullying tool did not start and end with Donald Trump. Most recently, Russia’s Vladimir Putin limited food exports to so-called &ldq...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.9025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.045/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&...

Good Friday

Tomorrow, 15 April is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspec...

Market Commentary: New Records Amid Low Volume

It was generally low volume in the futures market today as traders focus on the three-day holiday and the Goldman roll is no longer around to move the numb...

Cattle Contraction to be Felt Soon

We’re a week out from the April Cattle on Feed report; as noted on 25 March, the 1 March Cattle on Feed report showed record monthly inventories for...

The Great Divorce

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a stark warning to China this week. She basically threatened China economically if it continued to tacitly suppor...

Export Sales

Export Sales for April 1-7, 2022   Wheat:  Net sales of 96,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 39 percent from the previous week an...

Bipolar World; GMO Hobgoblins

Bipolar World Countries were already divided before Russia’s war on Ukraine, but the conflict has brought it into plain sight. The WTO has been unabl...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.835/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.2125/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.&nb...

China In-Country Analysis

Public Health COVID-19 Case Count in Shanghai Continues to Surge According to various news reports and social media, government officials in Shanghai have...

Black Sea Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1-8 April 2022 During the first week of April, the Russian grain market was predominantly bearish especially on the export front. On...

Oilseeds Respond to Prices

Oilseed prices may have peaked for now, but the bull market is impacting consumption and production. We say “may” because the Rosario Grains Ex...

Lamb: The Other Red Meat

Sunday is the Easter holiday; traditionally it is a high point for lamb consumption and production increases leading into the holiday. But the last two wee...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.7625/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.125/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Carbon Market Challenges

The Russian war on Ukraine has shorted the EU energy market and forced resumed use of coal. This in turn has driven up the need for more carbon allowances...

Ethanol Sobriety Check

Politics and not economics drove the White House announcement today to approve year-round E15 fuel sales under an emergency waiver of the Clean Air Act&rsq...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt soybean/soymeal forecasts by USDA FAS show an increase in soybean i...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.645/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.89/bushel, up $0.3075 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Farmer Sentiment at Post COVID Low

According to the Purdue University/CME Ag Economy Barometer, farmers’ outlook is at its lowest level post COVID. The index was 113 in March, which is...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance and confirms that yields will be below initial expectations and highly varied. Last week, farmers...

Food Safety Trouble; Pariah at the WTO; F2F Recalculation

Food Safety Trouble An extensive research effort by Politico on food regulation at the U.S. Food & Drug Administration reveals a troubled agency. Among...

Missing: Economic Resilience

One reason that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine was a sense of immunity against reprisal due to external dependence on Russia’s energy supplies and fo...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s UGA grain traders’ union said it looks for the country’s wheat harvest to fall 45 percent to 18.2 MMT this...

WASDE Soyoil

SOYOIL: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased exports and lower ending stocks. Despite relatively high soybean oil prices, export sales ha...

WASDE Soymeal

SOYMEAL: in the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting that lower U.S. soybean meal exports will be offset by slightly higher domestic disappearance. Soybea...

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting increased U.S. exports and seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are raised 25 million...

WASDE Corn

CORN: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA is forecasting unchanged U.S. ending stocks due to offsetting changes to feed and residual use and corn used for ethano...

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA reduced U.S. exports by 15 million bushels, to 785 million, as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets.  P...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.6875/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.515/bushel, up $0.315 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilseed Highlights – Struggling to Keep Up

WASDE Meets Expectations Today’s release of the April USDA WASDE was not as interesting as last week’s Prospective Plantings report but that is...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

WASDE Forecasts for Meat and Livestock

Today’s WASDE forecast for total red meat and poultry production was down from last month based on a slightly higher beef production forecast, but mo...

Ukraine Miniseries - Part III - Russian Advantage

Owning the Passage Russia is still able and will be able to export commodities. Sanctions do not include food. No one will deny countries like Egypt access...

Market Commentary: Calm Before the Storm

After several days of adding war premiums and one day before a USDA WASDE report, the market was mostly uneventful today. Volume was up in corn, soybeans a...

Narrow Thinking; Food versus Fuel, Again

Narrow Thinking First COVID and now the war in Ukraine have reinvigorated protectionism and thoughts of self-sufficiency. However, economists studying the...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.5775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.2/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Livestock Round-Up: Exceptional Beef Export Demand

While beef retail prices have cooled a bit in the U.S. from last year’s record domestic demand, export demand remains exceptional. Beef exports total...

Export Sales

Export Sales for March 25-31, 2022.   Wheat:  Net sales of 156,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 65 percent from the previous week,...

Ukraine Miniseries: Part II

This is the second in a three-part series of reports from WPI’s analysts in Ukraine. This article involves their opinion of Ukrainian agriculture in...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.565/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.3825/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&...

Great Power Struggle; Supply Response Needed; Pressuring Mexico

Great Power Struggle Deceased U.S. Senator John McCain called Russia a “gas station masquerading as a country” but it is also a major grocery s...

China In-Country Analysis

Cultural History April Kicks Off with Annual Qingming Festival or Ancestors’ Day China’s domestic market began the first full week of April on...

The Growing HPAI Impact

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues to wreak havoc. So far this week (and it is only Wednesday), APHIS announced an outbreak in Texas in a c...

Ukraine Miniseries: Part I

This is the first of a three-part special series of reports from WPI’s analysts in Ukraine. The first installment looks at what the war’s impac...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 March-1 April 2022 Last week the domestic market went bearish. Prices for staple grains plummeted to relatively traditional level...

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Dismal Crop Ratings

Yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA showing five-year lows in winter wheat conditions ratings put a bid under KCBT and CBOT wheat Tuesday. Com...

NBT Beats GMO; CBAM Cost

NBT Beats GMO As in Europe, genetically modified crops have been controversial in India where only Bt cotton is approved for cultivation. However, scientis...

Borscht Belt Economics

Borscht is considered comfort food in Russia and the cost to make it is reportedly rising. Bloomberg reports that since the start of the war, the cost of c...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Israel, and South Africa are target countries in the...

Market Commentary: CBOT Adds War-Risk Premium Ahead of WASDE

The CBOT rallied to start the week after news broke out this weekend of Russian shelling and bombardments of Ukrainian grain storage facilities and export...

War and the Food Fight; Development Effectiveness; To Ruble or Not

War and the Food Fight The intra-EU debate over F2F was bubbling under the surface but like lava flowing out of a rupture in the earth’s crust, Russi...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.505/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.1025/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

White Commodities

The U.S. rice industry motivated its politicians to attack USTR Katherine Tai last week as she made the rounds on Capitol Hill. The main point of their ire...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress at a solid pace and has reached almost 15 percent of the planted area. This is slightly below the...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine increased its forecast of area to be sown to spring crops to 13.4 Mha, which would be down 3.5 Mha from 2021. The latest foreca...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.35/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $9.845/bushel, down $0.215 from yesterday's close.&nb...

SPR Release: Third Time a Charm?

Yesterday, President Biden announced what will be his Administration’s third release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and it will be...

Oilseeds Highlights: Soybeans are King

The big news of the week is USDA’s Prospective Plantings report showing farmers plan to sow more acres to soybean than to corn. If that outcome is re...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Market Commentary: Market Mover

The larger than usual volume across many contracts puts the exclamation point on today’s market action. USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarte...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.4875/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.06/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close.&n...

New World Order; IPR Reversal; Antitrust Failure; Oil Boogeyman

New World Order Challenges posed to the West by both China and Russia has President Biden and geopolitical experts talking about a new world order. There h...

Export Sales

Export Sales for March 18-24, 2022.   Wheat:  Net sales of 95,000 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 39 percent from the previous week...

China In-Country Analysis

Public Health Coronavirus Lockdown Hits Shanghai, Case Rates Fall With rapid spread of the COVID-19 Omicron variant, health authorities in China have impos...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.38/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Vlad-atility

Vlad-atility is volatility caused when the market places too much value in what Vladimir Putin might be implying. Yesterday’s commodity lows were asp...

Offense is Defense; Gas Emergency; Pesky Bureaucracy

Offense is Defense USTR Katherine Tai knew that she would be facing some strong agriculture voices when she appears this week before the House and Senate c...

Ukrainian Grain and Oilseeds Market

Regional Update Ukraine: Planting  According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of 24 March, in 11 regions of Ukraine, spring grains and oilseeds were...

Swinging to Profitability

USDA’s survey-based Costs and Returns analysis for U.S. crops will not be updated until 2 May 2022, but it already looks like farming is more profita...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.2625/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.1425/bushel, down $0.4275 from yesterday's clos...

USTR Sleeps Too Much; Weird Trade Obligations; War Profiteering

USTR Sleeps Too Much With hearings before House and Senate trade panels over the next two days, USTR Katherine Tai suddenly says she has “serious con...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s National Grain Co intends to build a new grain termi...

Prop 12 Challenge; Weird War; Farm Bill Calculus

Prop 12 Challenge When the U.S. Congress passed Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) in 2010, the Vice President Joe Biden declared it a “big [expletive]...

The President’s Fiscal Year 2023 Budget

The White House unveiled the President’s FY 2023 Budget request today, which is but one step in a long and usually volatile budget debate. The Presid...

Feed versus Food Grains

The skyrocketing cost of wheat has turned rice into the go-to food grain. It helps that global surplus rice stocks are at a record high. High wheat prices...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.485/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.4525 from yesterday's close.&n...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina  The corn harvest had its biggest weekly advance since it started with 3.2 percent of fields harvested last week. That brings the total...

Record Cattle on Feed, Shrinking Feeder Cattle Supply

USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 12.2 million, right in line with expectations, and as...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $11.0225/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close. ...

Miracle Economics; Age of Petroleum

Miracle Economics Leaders in the Biden Administration are taking credit for expanding market access in Japan for U.S. beef. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Oilseeds Update – Machinations in a Tight Market

Production and Incentives Late planted soybeans in Argentina are filling pods and are still too dry. In Brazil, the soybean harvest is 69 percent completed...

Market Commentary: Out of Steam

It was mostly a turnaround day as risk is priced in as much as desired and there were some bearish indicators: South America is getting moisture and has b...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.4825/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.8575/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close.&n...

Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow and it could be a record – for the second month in a row. Analysts’ pre-report estimates p...

Export Sales

Export Sales for March 11-17, 2022 Wheat:  Net sales of 155,700 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 51 p...

Age of Nuclear; Miscellaneous Shorts; War’s Impact

Age of Nuclear The shock to the fossil fuels market coupled with aspirations for a low emissions future has combined to give renewed impetus to nuclear pow...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $11.0575/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&...

War Wrecks WTO; Crisis Leads to Reform

War Wrecks WTO The WTO was splintered before Russia attacked Ukraine but now progress on key issues is even less likely. The splintering at the UN and betw...

Sabotaging Ukrainian Agriculture

EU leaders are accusing Moscow of deliberately destroying Ukraine’s food production and infrastructure. They charge that Russia has a long history of...

China In-Country Analysis

Public Health New COVID-19 Cases and Related Deaths Continue to Rise With shutdowns and movement restrictions in place across major metropolitan areas in C...

Black Sea Regional Analysis: Ukrainian Grain and Oilseeds Market

Planting Update According to the Ministry of Agriculture, on 22 March the spring planting campaign started in the southern regions of Ukraine. Spring grain...

Market Commentary: Marking Time While Watching Ukraine

The CBOT marked another day of choppy, low-liquidity trading with old crop corn and wheat futures moving lower while soyoil and soybeans traded higher. New...

Russia-Ukraine War Commodity Perspective

According to reports from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense intelligence operations, Russia has been purposefully bombing and/or commandeering agricultur...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.53/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $11.1825/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.&n...

The War and Food Policy; Food versus Fuel II; Upstart Challenges

The War and Food Policy In a return to the Iraq’s war’s admonishment that you are either with us or against us, U.S. President Joe Biden travel...

Food as a Weapon

If Russia can use nuclear weapons to blackmail the world, China has the surplus food stocks to coerce its national ambitions. Global ending stocks for majo...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has announced that Abu Dhabi Ports Group will build a multipurpose...

Canadian Pacific Rail Lockout

Since the beginning of this month, a labor dispute among rail workers in Canada has been looming over the already tight fertilizer market. As of last week,...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.5625/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.555 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Musik für die US-Landwirtschaft; Energy Outlook; Africa Rising

Musik für die US-Landwirtschaft Russian aggression in eastern Europe has turned EU policy on its head and the latest evidence is German Finance Minist...

Food Dollar Winners and Losers

U.S. President Joe Biden has frequently attacked the companies processing food products, while lamenting the business struggles of farmers. He has told com...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Drought is a growing concern for parts of Europe, especially the southwest countries. The latest crop monitoring report from the EU Com...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentina Argentina’s farmers are showing a lot of concern about next year’s planting season. Argentina imports more than 60 percent of t...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.4175/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.6375/bushel, down $0.3425 from yesterday's clos...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

War Changes Everything; TRIPS Quid Pro Quo; Buyer’s Regret

War Changes Everything A month ago, the focus in Europe was greening agriculture and stopping climate change but the war has reversed the course in Brussel...

Oilseeds Update – Knock-on Effects

Another week of war in Ukraine and another week of dramatic impacts in the global oilseeds market. Not as dramatic as the wheat and corn market, but policy...

House Ag Panel Explores What Should Drive Climate Policy

The House Ag Committee held a hearing yesterday, “A 2022 Review of the Farm Bill: The Role of USDA Programs in Addressing Climate Change.” As w...

Market Commentary: Back Green for St. Paddy’s

The see-sawing this week over the war reflects the folly of buying the rumor. Hopes that Vladimir Putin will end the war ended after he said he would conti...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.545/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.98/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Export Sales for March 4-10, 2022   Wheat:  Net sales of 145,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 53 percent from the previous week...

Front Door Attack; War, Covid and Trade; English Tea Time

Front Door Attack The recently enacted omnibus spending bill included $2.5 million to support a “White House Conference on Food, Nutrition, Hunger an...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.3/bushel, down $0.28 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.6925/bushel, down $0.85 from yesterday's close. ...

IPEF Sloganeering; Rail Trouble; Chicken Facts

IPEF Sloganeering Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi is in Australia this week, reportedly to pitch the Biden Administration’s vision for...

Fed Commodity Risk

The first of a projected seven interest rate hikes was announced today by the U.S. Federal Reserve. In contradiction with the Biden White House, the Fed sa...

China In-Country Analysis

Public Health  COVID-19 Returns with a Vengeance Similar to its quasi-island province to the south, mainland China’s effort to control the impac...

Black Sea Analysis: Agriculture in the Ukrainian War Zone

Editor's Note: Despite the war going on all around them, this update is provided by WPI’s consultants in Kyiv. We know that Ana and her new baby have...

Lamb/Mutton Remain Minor

U.S. lamb and mutton exports were up 38 percent in January, but the market is still nothing to write home about. U.S. exports are swamped by the level of i...

Happy 10th Anniversary KORUS FTA

Last week’s WASDE raised the forecast for beef export. A large reason was Korea, so far the top export destination for U.S. beef. Indeed, today is th...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.58/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $11.5425/bushel, up $0.58 from yesterday's close. ...

Value of Grain; Under-Staffed; US-Korea FTA Assessment

Value of Grain The loss of corn exports from Ukraine is revealing the value of technology biases. While the EU is rich and chose to loosen pesticide standa...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Ramadan is expected to begin on 2 April and end 1 May with the holiday of...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.4825/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.9625/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's clos...

Fertilizer and Cost of Production

As the debate on next year’s farm bill gets underway, commodity groups are considering what role the cost of production should play in crop programs...

Food Crisis Coming

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization prepared a slideshow for the G7 agriculture ministers that shows more food inflation even under the most o...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Interfax reports that Russia is considering a full ban on the export of wheat, barley, maize, and rye starting Tuesday, 15 March that w...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Regional Updates Argentina’s Rumored Corn and Wheat Taxes Rumors of an increase in wheat and corn export taxes appeared in Argentina this week. There...

Market Commentary: End of Week is the Only Certainty

After a wild week, the final trading session featured lower volume and measured moves. The result of the five days of trading included small gains for corn...

Omnibus Spending Bill Passed – Ag Spending Up 7.4 Percent

Yesterday, the Senate passed an omnibus funding bill to keep the government open through the end of the fiscal year. It cleared the Senate 68-31 and on Wed...

Hot Markets, Precious Land; Food Constraints and Access

Hot Markets, Precious Land Before Russia invaded Ukraine and sent agricultural commodity markets reeling, the focus was on improving farming’s contri...

Oilseeds Update: Massive Disruptions and Change

This week’s USDA WASDE report was a blip on the screen compared with the intense focus and disruption of Russia warring on Ukraine. Due to the scale...

Market Commentary: Split Decision

While wheat gave back another big chunk of its recent days’ gains, soybeans and corn kept the rally going. However, volume was muted, except in the S...

War is Global PR Battle; Untrade Agenda

War is Global PR Battle The Russian war on Ukraine is a global PR battle and Western media has the advantage. While Vladimir Putin has monopoly control, hi...

Summary of Futures

May 22 Corn closed at $7.5575/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close.  May 22 Wheat closed at $10.87/bushel, down $1.145 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Livestock Round-Up: Biotech, Gene Editing Policy

This week, the FDA’s Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) approved, or more accurately declared, a “low risk determination” for heat tole...

Export Sales

Export Sales for February 25-March 3, 2022.   Wheat:  Net sales of 307,200 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 2 percent from the previou...

WASDE Soyoil - March 2022

Soybean oil: price is raised 2 cents to 68.0 cents per pound...

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