The CBOT traded sharply higher on Wednesday with Tuesday’s rallies in corn and wheat sparking follow-through fund and speculative buying. Moreover, t...
Articles
China Status Quo; Buffaloed on Beef
China Status Quo A piece in Bloomberg makes note that the White House has focused on other issues (voting rights, Build Back Better spending) but has said...
Good But #27
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange announced that the average yield for Argentina’s 2021/22 wheat crop will be 3.44 MT/hectare. That is the highest yiel...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.105/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.965/bushel, up $0.275 from yesterday's close. M...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 January 2022 The Russian domestic market prices changed insignificantly and mainly in southern regions that are more sensitive...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Tensions, Short-Covering Rally Wheat; Corn Rallies Last-Minute; Soyoil Crashes
The CBOT came back from its three-day holiday to find soyoil crashing lower under technical selling and position liquidation. The day’s soymeal trade...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.995/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.69/bushel, up $0.275 from yesterday's close. ...
Farm Income Getting Squeezed by Input Costs
The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on Thursday to Review the State of the Rural Economy. This is an annual hearing, and the sole witness w...
Subsidizing Poor Governance; GMO Pork; Trees for Grass
Subsidizing Poor Governance Development assistance goes to some very needy nations, but it may also enable corrupt political regimes to persevere when they...
On the Cusp of?
Nothing is more important to commodity markets than the larger economy. First, the U.S. economy was headed toward secular stagnation, then it was worrisome...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to...
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets will be closed Monday, 17 January 2022 in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. WPI’s offices will be closed as well...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Losses; Corn, Soyoil Strengthen; Hogs Rally on ASF News
The CBOT was mostly lower in low-volume, pre-holiday trade. Monday is a holiday in the U.S. and the CBOT/CME (and WPI’s offices) will be closed. Nota...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9625/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&n...
RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook
Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came...
WFH Productivity; USMCA Rift
WFH Productivity There have been plenty of studies about the impacts on productivity of work from home (WFH) during COVID. They usually show mixed results...
Guessing La Niña
This year’s La Niña event has been categorized as historically a moderate one. The rains coming to parts of South America this weekend attest...
Oilseeds Situation Update
Most of the current changes are on the supply side of the ledger. This week’s USDA WASDE has come and gone but its effects linger. The agency’s...
Market Commentary: Definitively Lower
The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s...
Livestock Round-Up: WASDE Livestock Outlook
Last week we noted the impact of Omicron on slaughter rates; as of today, cattle slaughter is up about 1 percent, hog slaughter is down about 3.5 percent,...
Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup
Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 20...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.875/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.4675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Dec 31, 2021 – Jan 6, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 264,400 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous we...
Market Commentary: WASDE Cuts S. American Crops, Raises U.S. Carry-Out; Report Whipsaws Soybeans
Today’s CBOT trade was all about the WASDE with markets trading quietly lower before the report’s noon ET release. The report, while mostly in-...
Workers of World United
The analytics company CultureX says that people are more likely to quit their jobs due to a toxic workplace culture than due to their salary. That may be t...
What’s in a Name; Going Industrial; New Analytical Approach
What’s in a Name Proponents of geographic indicators in Europe are upset that DG-Agri may be planning to hand over more regulatory oversight of the G...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.5775/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
WASDE Soyoil
U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
U.S. soybean meal price is projected at $375 per short ton, up 45 dollars...
WASDE Soybeans
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 10 million bushels to 350 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $12.6...
WASDE Corn
U.S. corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 47 million bushels to 1,540 million. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Inflation Reverses Course, Falls in December With pork prices continuing to remain well below their averages from a year ago, food cost...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 628 million. The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.15...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 January 2022 The first week of January was holiday season, as usual, so it was impossible to register any changes on the Russian...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firmer Heading into WASDE; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT turned higher on the last day of pre-WASDE trading as continued short covering in wheat and a bullish response to CONAB’s new production dat...
Trade Announcement on India and Pork Highlights What is Not Happening
Trade negotiations are a long, slow process, marked in many cases by small steps on the way to broader market access and more robust trade. A good reminder...
Fake Pork Trade; Humoring Russia
Fake Pork Trade USTR Katherine Tai announced that bilateral negotiations had resulted in India opening its market to imports of U.S. pork. This past year,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.01/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7025/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA MEA region grain importers will face lower Russian export quotas in 2022 – 8 MMT of whe...
Three-Year Rebuild
The price of palm oil has been rising since the start of 2021, reaching a local price roughly double the average of the previous dozen years. Production in...
Market Commentary: Spreads Reversed Ahead of WASDE; Livestock Futures Sharply Lower
CBTO trade on Monday was all about positioning for Wednesday’s WASDE report from USDA. Traders took out some of the weather premium that was bid into...
Beef with Oil; Carbon Trouble
Beef with Oil The Biden Administration dislikes the oil industry as much or more than Big Beef. After stating the goals of ending drilling on public lands,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.62/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Fat Cats
Investors are most interested in maximizing their return on capital. It is notable that across 97 different industries, the agrifood sector is a mixed bag...
EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade
On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulator...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Wheat/Corn Trust The Argentine government is being creative in trying to control inflation rates. They are trying to control local wheat...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s grain exports for MY 2021/22 total 33.5 MMT, up 23 percent from the same period last year. Of that, wheat accounts for...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rally on Technical and Index Fund Buying; Wheat Posts Chart Reversal
The CBOT turned higher heading into the weekend with soybeans and soymeal posting big rallies near mid-day. Soybeans and soymeal pushed above technical res...
A Different Kind of Inflation in 2021
The U.S. has not used the gold standard since 1933, when the Emergency Banking Act forced Americans to give up gold and convert their holdings to dollars...
Real Food Sovereignty; Obesity Solutions
Real Food Sovereignty Activists and their populist politicians in rich, developed countries have an answer for reforming agriculture – small farms us...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Situation Update
As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. Th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0675/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.585/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Topsy Turvey
Corn and cattle opened down but settled up; soyoil opened up but closed down with the rest of the complex; and wheat never saw the light of day. The ration...
Mistakes on All Sides
Russian President Vladimir Putin complains that NATO is a threat to Russia and seeks a buffer to establish states but the nations he wants to isolate from...
Livestock Round-Up: Dealing with the Omicron Effect
The increased number of cases of the Omicron variant of COVID has been weighing somewhat on the cattle markets this past week. There is general chatter abo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.46/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Major Live Hog Companies Target Increased Capacity in 2022 Even with live hog prices down year-on-year by 54.8 percent and the corn-hog ratio in...
Export Sales
Export Sales for December 24-30, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 48,600 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low—were down 76 percent from...
Market Commentary: March Soybeans Falter at $14.00; Corn, Wheat Lower Amid Fund Selling
The CBOT traded a mixed day with wheat and corn futures posting losses on moderate fund selling and buyers’ more cautious approach amid increased vol...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0225/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close...
Dissecting Beef
The Biden Administration is charging the meat packing industry with exploitation for elevated beef prices. Beef is certainly not the only industry with ris...
Government Meat Plants; Brussels Effect; 2022 Drivers and Outcome
Government Meat Plants President Biden criticized the meat industry for what he termed “exploitation.” The term is a formal part of case law un...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 December 2021 The last week of December on the Russian grain market was very calm. General trends were downward. Market player...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.095/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Ma...
Market Commentary: Boisterous Day
The second trading day of the new year started modestly enough. Corn and soybeans were up a nickel, soymeal was in the hole. Then with a burst of volume co...
Eye on Weather for 2022 Considering Fertilizer Prices
There has been much discussion and focus on the weather conditions in South America, and Brazil in particular where it has been dry across the central and...
Biden’s Beef to Nowhere; Irrepressible COOL
Biden’s Beef to Nowhere In 2005, members of the Alaska Congressional delegation tried to add funding equivalent in today’s inflation-adjusted d...
Market Swing Leans Bullish
Berry Marttin at Rabobank notes that agricultural commodity prices have risen 28 percent over the past year and are 40 percent above pre-pandemic levels. L...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Syria is facing a water crisis in the northeast that it blames on Turkey. Dams on the Euphrat...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on Brazil Yield Risk; Corn, Wheat Lower on Technical Selling
The CBOT started the week on a strong note with continued drought forecast across South America offering support Sunday night. March soybeans ended the ove...
Biden Plan to Downsize “Big Meat”
The Biden Administration today held a roundtable to discuss the details of its Action Plan for a Fairer, More Competitive, and More Resilient Meat and Poul...
WASDE Adjustments to South America
La Niña events are not infrequent and should provide some level of predictability. However, there is wide variability in each event, seed genetics c...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.8925/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.58/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
The State and Monopolies
The Biden Administration announced a $1 billion program to incentivize “independent processing capacity” in the meat industry. Noting the irony...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In the last two weeks, amid drought and sunny, warm weather, Argentina’s wheat harvest moved fast and reached almost 90 percent of the planted...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9325/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7075/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.&...
Low Volume, High Interest
Today’s trading went as expected with a low volume of business but that does not obviate the high interest in agricultural commodities as we move int...
GE Labeling; Skewed Meat View; Accurate Milk View
GE Labeling Starting in 2022, the U.S. will have mandatory labeling of foods with detectable amounts of genetically modified content. WPI emphasizes...
Market Commentary: Profit Taking, Brazil Rains Weigh on CBOT
The CBOT came under pressure Thursday from a combination of end-of-year profit taking and rains that are pushing into southern Brazil. Traders were eager t...
An Early Look at Red Meat’s Future
At the end of the year, thoughts are turning to the future – not just 2022, but the longer term as well. USDA released its preliminary long-term outl...
Export Sales
Export Sales for December 17-23, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 199,500 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 53 percent from the previous week and 43...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Russian Roulette
Market volatility has risen with Covid and its latest iteration Omicron but has thus far underplayed the current security risks playing out in Eastern Euro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0475/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.835/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Small Comeback
Today’s trading opened like a continuation of the day before. Wheat corn and soy all opened lower with just the livestock complex in a more bullish m...
Farm Bill Negotiations to Start Soon
House Agriculture Committee Chairman David Scott (D-Georgia) has indicated that negotiations for the farm bill will start in the very early weeks of 2022...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0475/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.835/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Corrective Doldrum
It now looks like Omicron is manageable, which supports macros and ethanol but otherwise there are few new commodity market inputs. That led to an opportun...
Soft Opening
Welcome back from the holiday. The latest weather reports have not brightened prospects for crops in Argentina and southern Brazil and weather premium was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.1475/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.04/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...
Holiday Schedule
Financial markets will be closed tomorrow, December 24, for Christmas Eve. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report tomorrow. WPI wishes everyo...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Rallies on Huge Export Sales; Corn, Soybeans Hold Technical Gains
The CBOT was mostly higher in pre-Christmas trade with soymeal once again leading the soy complex higher, though huge soyoil export sales supported that ma...
Livestock Round Up: Bullish Report on Hogs, Neutral on Cattle
USDA released a trifecta of livestock reports today. First, the much-awaited quarterly hogs and pigs report. Pre-report expectations were for a bullish rep...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.0575/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.1475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Greed versus Apathy
President Biden and his economic team attacked the U.S. meat industry this year for being greedy. Meanwhile, he has politely asked the oil industry to plea...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Tariff on Imported Pork Set to Rise to Help Domestic Industry Even with China’s national reproductive sow inventory falling to 43 million h...
Export Sales
Export Sales for December 10-16, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 425,400 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 35 percent from the previous week, but up...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Rallies Continue; Hogs, Cattle Higher Ahead of Key Reports
The futures market has seemingly given U.S. farmers and commodity producers (e.g., soy crushers) a gift with another day of pre-holiday rallies. The CBOT s...
December Cold Storage Report
November total red meat and poultry stocks were down from October and fell 11.3 percent from November 2020. Once again, pork and chicken stocks posted five...
Africa Already Green
When the EU and the African Union meet in February, Brussels will reportedly encourage the AU to adopt Europe’s Green Deal/Farm to Fork strategy in a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $6.025/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.14/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. J...
Diabolical Plan; Trade in Cancer; Energy Reality
Diabolical Plan USTR issued a blistering report regarding Russia’s increasingly protectionist trade policy. It accused Moscow of employing localizati...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased at higher rates than during the previous week due to growing grain e...
Market Commentary: Lower Omicron Fears Boost Markets; Soybeans Break $13; Corn Tests $6
Receding concerns about another round of economic lockdowns from the Omicron COVID-19 variant sent macro-markets and the CBOT higher on Tuesday. News broke...
Which Way Chile; Green Excuse
Which Way Chile Analysts are pondering the future of Chile now that it has elected socialist Gabriel Boric as its next president. Boric campaigned to end n...
Rarely Due to War
Syria’s wheat production collapsed this year, but it was not due to the nearly decade-long civil war. The FAO cites three causes: 1) drought; 2) high...
Cattle on Feed and Hogs and Pigs Preview
It’s a holiday shortened week, but a big week for livestock reports from USDA. On Thursday, the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report comes out. (We’v...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s Agricultural Bank is putting up EGP 4 billion (about U.S. $254 million) “...
Market Commentary: Omicron Creates Two-Sided Trade; Lysine Shortage Fuels Soymeal Rally; Bullish World Weather
Fresh concerns about the global Omicron coronavirus variant sent energy and macro-markets sharply lower on Monday, and the “risk off” mentality...
Perk up Attention
Exports point to climate change as the cause of the plateauing in global crop production but no where is it more apparent than in coffee production. Brazil...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7775/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
BBB Blowback; Shoot the Messenger; Silver Lining
BBB Blowback Although word yesterday that U.S. Senator Joe Manchin’s rejection of President Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) Act appears to be l...
Meat Inflation: Income Elasticity Worked as Expected in 2021
Inflation is a hot topic lately; it is the reason why the Fed has signaled it will raise interest rates three times next year. Moreover, it is why Senator...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Concerns about the frost-tolerance of the Black Sea wheat crop are growing after the EU Commission confirmed last week that a late star...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Quota Update Finally, the Argentine government implemented a so-called “new” system to control wheat and corn exports. The “new&rd...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Test Resistance; South American Weather Threatens
The CBOT traded a mostly higher day with corn and soybeans pushing closer to major resistance at $6.00 and $13.00, respectively. Funds were net buyers and...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Russian Ultimatum; Cynical Tax Break
Russian Ultimatum Russian President Vladmimir Putin just provoked the transatlantic strategy on managing his country’s possible aggression in Eastern...
Fertilizer Worries and Natural Gas News
The November edition of the Purdue University/CME Ag Economy Barometer shows that November was the lowest index of the year to date at 116 – down 51...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9325/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.75/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. J...
Oilseeds Situation – Mixed Outlook
Supply While the global supply of oilseeds and products is tight, it could get tighter or looser. The least likely factor to reduce demand and thus loosen...
Market Commentary: Confidence in the Pits
The market appeared to be half asleep at the start of today’s session. Corn and wheat were up relatively modestly for a while until wheat shot up to...
Livestock Round Up: California Proposition 12 and Canadian Pork and Pigs
The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report comes out one week from today. It is a much- anticipated report. Feed costs, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9125/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.705/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. ...
Tripping Up Shipping; Minimal? 2022 Drivers
Tripping Up Shipping The shelves are not bare before Christmas, but somethings remain in short supply. Political success means saving the day and some drea...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Dec 3-9, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 650,600 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the previo...
Summary of Futures
March 22 Corn ($/bu) $5.8575 March 22 Wheat ($/bu) $7.5600 March 22 Hard Red Winter ($/bu) $7.8550 March Hard Red Spring ($/bu) $10.0925...
Market Commentary: Implications of Fed Rate Hikes, Consumer Spending; Wheat Futures Crash, Soyoil, Soymeal Post Reversals
CBOT and KCBT wheat led the way lower on Wednesday with heavy “risk off” and liquidation trade pushing the markets to 25-30 cent/bushel losses...
Inflation Truth; Excess Demand; Source of News
Inflation Truth The U.S. Federal Reserve sent a strong signal today that inflation is endemic in the economy and that strong action is needed to bring it u...
How Sweet it Isn’t
In the past three years, India has switched from being the number four exporter of sugar in the world to number two. Over the past dozen years, its domesti...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Inflation Sees First Uptick Since May After five consecutive months of declines, food prices in the aggregate rose by 1.6 percent on an...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices continue to decrease. Export milling wheat average offer price decreased to $33...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Surges, Supports Soybeans; Corn Back Above $5.90; Cattle, Hogs Trade Lower
The CBOT largely reversed course from Monday’s trade with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all turning higher while wheat settled lower and soyoil extende...
Food Better Than Healthcare; Big Ag is Safe; Siloed Big Tech
Food Better Than Healthcare While the healthcare sector has been called a miracle for the way it has handled the pandemic, the food industry has been criti...
Producer Prices Hit Record High as Fed Begins December Meeting
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Index (PPI) today, the primary measure of inflation for manufacturers and producers. The P...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9025/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.87/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Ukrainian Opportunity
Ukraine has become an important supplier of corn over the past decade, increasing its exports by 155 percent. However, its share of the global market has o...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt reports that current wheat reserves will cover consumption for 5.3 months. Egypt’...
Market Commentary: South American Rains Soak Soybeans; Wheat Firms while Cattle Post Bullish Day
The CBOT traded a mixed day with weekend rains in South America creating pronounced risk-off selling in soybean futures. The market will have to see how lo...
Next Trade War; Blaming Meat Industry; Taiwan Trouble
Next Trade War The EU Commission is moving forward on its goal of ensuring that constraints imposed on European producers will also be applied to imports...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.85/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8875/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
USDA Defending Changes to Capital Gains Tax Treatment of Farms – Again
As WPI covered earlier this year, the Biden Administration’s reconciliation bill proposed major changes to capital gains taxes, including an increase...
Potato Trade Grows
Potatoes have taken a dietary beating for being a basic starch that raises blood sugar as fast as pure glucose. By contrast, whole wheat contains complex s...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat World wheat markets are under pressure from USDA’s December WASDE, which increased global 2021/22 ending stocks due to larger pro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s wheat harvest is 54 percent complete after advancing 8.5 percent last week. Yields in the center and south of the a...
Market Commentary: Hogs, Wheat Rally After WASDE; Tight Supplies Spark Soymeal Strength
The CBOT ended mixed in two-sided trade on Friday with the lack of significant changes in Thursday’s WASDE leaving the markets somewhat directionless...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
GMO Debate Over; More China Calculations
GMO Debate Over Mark Twain may have said that a lie travels around the globe while the truth is putting on its shoes and the adage is truer today than ever...
Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs
There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues. SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8525/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseeds Situation Update
A summary of the bullish and bearish supply, demand and policy machinations affecting the global oilseeds sector. Supply Bullish Argentina: Soybean planted...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Nov 26 to Dec 2,2021. Wheat: Net sales of 239,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week, bu...
WASDE Soyoil
Soyoil: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for soyoil to average 65 cents per pound in the 2021/22 season. ...
WASDE Soymeal
Soymeal: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for meal price to increased $5.00 to $330.00 per short ton...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. Soybean crush is unchanged but soybean oil production is raised on a higher ext...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.45 per bushel. Global coarse...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for a small increase in U.S. ending stock because exports are lowered 20 million bushels. U.S. export prices...
Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE
USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” ch...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7675/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&n...
Congressional Reform; Inflation Rate
Congressional Reform The U.S. Congress is held in general low regard by the American public. Seen as petty, partisan and dysfunctional, the institution doe...
WASDE, 2022 Cattle Prices and 2021 Pork Imports
Today’s WASDE shows total red meat and poultry production finishing the year slightly below last month’s forecasts, though up 0.3 percent from...
Market Commentary: EPA Numbers Crater Soyoil; Export Fears Force Wheat Selloff; Corn, Soybeans Grind Higher
Wheat futures sank lower the day before the December WASDE on concerns that the USDA will cut its U.S. export forecast in the coming report. Certainly, the...
Changes in Chemical Usage
The U.S./Canada and Europe have increased pesticide usage only slightly over the past two decades whereas South America’s usage has grown by almost 1...
Wishful Thinking; Better Buyers than Sellers; Siloed Market
Wishful Thinking The EU is developing a new trade policy intended to rapidly respond to “coercive measures” by third countries, such as Donald...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.8725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.945/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Muyuan’s Credit Default Sends Shockwave Through Industry Based on recent reports from the Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange (SHCPE), more...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 November-3 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased mainly due to downward trends on international wheat markets...
Market Commentary: Hogs Crumble; EPA Mandate Rumors Support Corn, Pressure Soy Complex
Corn and wheat turned higher on Tuesday while the soy complex sold off despite strength in palm oil futures. Rumors that the EPA will soon announce its bio...
Retro RVOs May Disappoint, but 2022 RVO Bullish Corn and Veg Oil
EPA released its 2022 proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS along with the retroactive 2021 volumes and an adjustment to the 2020 volume...
Corruption Focus; Next Transportation Fuel
Corruption Focus The Biden Administration will emphasize its Strategy on Countering Corruption at this week’s Summit for Democracy. Shell companies w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.86/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.085/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
Government Led Nutrition
Everyone knows China loves pork, but its new affinity is dairy. Throughout Chinese history, dairy was mostly associated with nomadic tribes, like the dread...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan has agreed that the transportation of 50,000 MT wheat from India to Afghanistan, via...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.835/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.0625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: CBOT Chops Sideways; Wheat Firmer on Russian Troop Movement; Hogs Fall on Weak Cash Prices
The CBOT traded mostly lower to start the week with soymeal dragging soybeans lower, despite a slight rise in soyoil futures. Corn rebounded from the day&r...
Growing Threat to Trade
Russia is positioning to invade Ukraine if it wants, and China is seeking to put a military base on the Atlantic in Equatorial Guinea. Then there is China&...
Brazilian Beef and BSE
Brazilian Minister of Agriculture, Tereza Cristina, has stated she’s hopeful Brazil will be shipping beef to China again this month. Brazil’s l...
Hurdles for Beef
Making beef is challenging, and making good beef is even more complicated. It requires far more resources than competing animal proteins, which is why glob...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to build its troop presence on the border with Ukraine and has mobilized some 170,000 troops to the region. That is 70...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest continues at high speed with 12 percent harvested this week. The total has now reached 45 percent of the planted area...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Rally on South American Forecast; Wheat Falls on Russia Export Rumors
Summer row crops rallied on the CBOT Friday while wheat futures turned lower on expectations that near-term Russian exports will increase substantially. Ru...
Ethanol Starting Out Marketing Year Strong; Vilsack Says RVOs Coming
USDA released the October Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was up 16 percent from October 2020, and up 15 percent from Septemb...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.84/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.0375/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Greens on Defense; Apparel Peril; NAFTA Changes Parties
Greens on Defense For decades the policy bible for Greens in Europe has included scriptures against GMO’s and nuclear energy. But GMO’s can aid...
Cotton Beats Wheat
There is much consternation over the fact that global stocks-to-use in wheat is down to 12.5 percent and as a result, the price of the March SRW contract i...
Market Commentary: Omicron Correction
It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indicat...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.7675/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.15/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. ...
Energy and Food Lessons; Implications of Ukraine; Omicron Buys WTO Time
Energy and Food Lessons Energy and food prices are spiking at the same time policy reform advocates are seeking wholesale changes in the production of both...
Livestock Round Up: Broiler Production Ramping Up
The broiler production is looking strong for the new year. Chick hatching for placements in October was up 6 percent year-over-year. That’s the large...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Senior Ag Ministry Official Warns of Sustained Low Hog Prices In a recent interview, the Deputy Director of MARA’s Animal Husbandry and Vet...
Export Sales
Export Sales for November 19-25, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 79,900 metric tons (MT) for2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 86 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Bounce, Pullback as Omicron Detected in U.S.
The CBOT started the day higher with corn and the soy complex leading the way after “buy on the bounce” and “risk on” trade develop...
China Strategy; Biotech Breakout
China Strategy The U.S., EU and Japan have agreed to collaborate on how to deal with non-market economic practices – read China. The debate over how...
AI Impact
As the media tracks the spread of the Omicron version of COVID, there are reports of additional outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in Eu...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.715/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.905/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions, but the changes were not dramatic. They took place ma...
Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)
“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets wer...
Anti-vaxxers Come to Ag; Identity Politics Come to Trade
Anti-vaxxers Come to Ag The Green Revolution created modern agriculture, which has been called a mechanism for turning fossil fuels (inputs) into food. In...
COVID Variant Inflation
The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing today entitled, “CARES Act Oversight of Treasury and the Federal Reserve: Building a Resilient Economy.&r...
Aussie Wheat Importance
Although Australia produces less than 5 percent of global wheat output, it is typically the world’s fourth largest exporter. Due to its tendency towa...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.675/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8725/bushel, down $0.35 from yesterday's close.&n...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan and India are having difficulty in agreeing on the method to move Indian wheat to Af...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Weaker on Limited News, Strong U.S. Dollar, and Technical Selling
The CBOT was generally weaker to start the week with heavy overnight trade pushing wheat and soybeans higher while corn was lower. Today was the last tradi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
December’s Legislative Traffic Jam
Congress has a busy December ahead of it, including keeping the government open and increasing the Treasury Department’s borrowing authority. As it s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.81/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.2225/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's clo...
India’s Dangerous Reversal; Dems vs. Coms
India’s Dangerous Reversal Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent reversal on farm policy reforms will reverberate for years to come. Ess...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Last week was a short one for trading with Monday having been an Argentine holiday and Thursday marking the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Markets were, of cou...
Poultry Politics
Inflation is worrisome to the public and so politicians feel compelled to deflect any blame from themselves. Thus, President Biden called for an FTC invest...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France has detected the highly pathogenic bird flu virus on a farm in the northern part of the country, officials said on Saturday. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.8675/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.4025/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: COVID-19 News Craters Markets; Corn, Wheat, and Cattle Show Strength Amid Selling
Once again, coronavirus dominated the market’s psychology and action after the WHO identified the new southern Africa strain as a “variant of c...
Cancellation of Convenience; Fox in the Henhouse
Cancellation of Convenience The WTO’s 12th ministerial conference scheduled to begin next week has reportedly been postponed due to news of a new COV...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 567,500 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 42 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior4-week average. Cor...
Delayed RVOs Leads to Pushing Back RFS Compliance Deadlines
Recently, WPI reported on the Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit hearing about the timeline for the required volume obligations (...
Happy Thanksgiving
U.S. markets, including the CBOT and CME, are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 25 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.5025/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Rally; Wheat Posts Reversal; Corn Fails at Key Resistance Level
The CBOT was higher overnight with continued worries about world wheat supplies and weather driving the markets. Wheat futures continued their upside run i...
China Does it Again
Tomorrow is “turkey-day” in the U.S. but today the story is beef. Prices are up nearly 30 percent and while the cattle cycle is part of the sto...
Slippery Liability Slope; Papered Over; IP Confusion; Trilateral Double Talk
Slippery Liability Slope A federal jury in Ohio opined that since the pharmacies at major corporations filled prescriptions for opioids, they are therefore...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Feed Demand Slows in Q4 Data from the surveys of China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) Affairs and the China Feed...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions. Export duties continued to increase. Export milling w...
Market Commentary: New Highs in Wheat and Cattle; Soymeal Crashes; Oil Rallies as Biden Increases Supply
CBOT futures were mixed on Tuesday with wheat once again leading the way higher with new contract highs, corn following, and the soy complex ending mixed...
Farm Bill Outlook; China Phase One
Farm Bill Outlook Former Congressional staffer turned University of Illinois professor Jonathon Coppess correctly opines that negotiation on the 2023 farm...
How Sweet it Isn't
Two major U.S. sugar processors, U.S. Sugar and Imperial Sugar planned a merger, but the Justice Department is saying no. It warns that the duopoly...