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Market Commentary: Don’t Get Fooled Again

A bearish WASDE report and rains across the central U.S. production area sent the market lower today. USDA called for reduced output of corn and soybeans b...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8375/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.3275/bushel, down $0.2775 from yesterday's close...

Pity EU Farmers

The European Parliament approved a Nature Restoration Law that farmers say will cause the loss of farmland targeted for restoration as natural habitat. Mea...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 July 2023  The first week of the new marketing year is gone and the market is under severe pressure due to carryover,...

Concentrated but Explainable; Moral Equivalence

Concentrated but Explainable In President Biden’s first six months as president he issued an Executive Order calling on federal agencies to investiga...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.015/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. ...

Pondering Pork Markets

There is still a lot of head scratching in the pork markets to try to understand the potential impacts of California’s Proposition 12. Some clarity w...

Reshuffling Meat Distribution

The OECD’s recent World Agricultural Outlook 2023-32 report notes that meat consumption is declining in affluent countries. The reasons cited include...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Agricultural Development Fund reportedly made major...

Policy Compounding Compounding; Not Chinglish; Freedom and Food

Policy Compounding Compounding Feed compounders typically use computer software to find the optimal mix of ingredients (up to 900 different options) based...

Fungibility for Food Security

There is speculation that rice prices will increase due a smaller crop in India, the world’s largest exporter, and the impacts of El Niño. Tha...

Geopolitical Issues in Fertilizer Markets

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the longest serving premier in the Netherlands and the second longest serving head of government in the EU, will be steppi...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat This week Argentina saw low intensity rains, but they again fell on areas that at this moment do not have any need of the moisture. On the other hand...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.995/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The Russia/Ukraine conflict has again taken on an increased importance for commodity markets. Ukraine last week accused Russia of minin...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Oilseed Highlights – Rally Stalls Awaiting Weather

The Market The post-Acreage report soybean rally stalled this week. The fall reverberated around the globe hitting canola, palm oil and other oilseed produ...

Know Thy Brother; Remembering Abe

Know Thy Brother Europe and Latin America had one of the weirder policy exchanges of the week. Heads of state from the Latin American and Caribbean States...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.945/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for June 23-29, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 405,800 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 primarily for Mexico (111,400 MT, includin...

Atypical BSE and the WOAH; What Will China Do?

The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) announced last month that it has removed atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) from the list of a...

Market Commentary: Some Reversals but Same Trends

Rebalancing from last Friday’s USDA Acreage report appears to now be complete as corn and soybeans traded places and wheat flounders sideways. On the...

IPEF Criticism; EU Pesticide Reports

IPEF Criticism Participants in the Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific Framework for Prosperity meet again this Sunday to try and move forward on var...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.065/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.58/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. ...

Livestock Round Up: Decision Time for USDA on FMMO Hearing

By the end of this month, USDA will have to decide whether to hold a public hearing on the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO). This would be the first hea...

Waiting for Trade Policy Changes; Transatlantic Speech

Waiting for Trade Policy Changes Seasoned Washington trade policy expert Bill Reinsch characterized the Biden Administration’s trade policy as akin t...

Global Sugar Rebound

After hitting the lowest global sugar ending stocks in more than a dozen years, production is making a rebound. Production is expected to jump 6 percent to...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.7425/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close.  Nov...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 June 2023  Russian Grain Union is estimating the Russian grain crop at 130-140 MMT and export potential at 55 MMT...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel has the highest cost of living in the Middle East region, followed...

July Fourth Holiday

The CBOT/CME markets will be closed on Tuesday, 4 July in observance of the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will b...

Transatlantic Policy Revolutions; Grain Corridor Deal

Transatlantic Policy Revolutions USTR Katherine Tai evangelizes the Biden Administration’s worker-centric trade policy by emphasizing that change is...

Friday’s Acreage Report and Livestock

It is a holiday shortened week this week, but the markets have absorbed the 30 June acreage and stocks reports. As Matt Herrington reported, corn was sharp...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.4175/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The European Investment Bank will provide a €50 million loan for the construction of a new grain terminal in the Bulgarian port of...

Weathering Drought

Moroccan grain production is highly volatile due to frequent droughts, a situation that may become more common elsewhere due to climate change. USDA/FAS re...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentina’s wheat sowing is progressing at a good pace thanks to favourable weather conditions, and with a weekly progress of almost 14 percent...

Oilseed Highlights – Recovery Underway

The Market The week’s trading provided nothing to write home about until Friday’s USDA reports caused a spike.  The two reports out of USD...

Book Review: Ultra-Processed People

What a catchy title by virologist Chris van Tulleken! In his book he asks,  “Why Do We All Eat Stuff That Isn’t Food … and Why Can&...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9475/bushel, down $0.3375 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.&n...

Positive Economic Data - Silver Lining Surrounded by Clouds

There have been a number of economic reports recently that on the face of them seem very positive, but in some cases, they are the sliver linings still sur...

Market Commentary: Calm Before Tomorrow’s Storm

It has been a messy, volatile period. Spooked by drought, then reassured by showers, only to be spooked again by instability in Russia. Still there are rea...

Livestock Round Up: June Hogs and Pigs Report

USDA released its June quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. Pre-report expectation was for a total inventory of 72.016 million head, down 0.7 percent from...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.675/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for June 16-22, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 155,200 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 primarily for Japan and Mexico. Export shi...

Market Commentary: More Rains Wash Away Weather Premium

Over the past three weeks, one has been unable to discuss ag commodity futures without a detailed discussion of U.S. weather patterns, and that remained tr...

UN Food Summit; Hill Grilling; Food Insults

UN Food Summit When the first biannual UN Food Summit occurred back in 2021, it was a hotly competed policy platform between agribusiness and the social ac...

Driver of Oilseeds

The biofuels industry gets a lot of attention for influencing vegetable oil prices but growing human consumption has its role as well. The largest importer...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.6975/bushel, down $0.2925 from yesterday's close...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 June 2023  Russian analysts cut previous grain production forecasts by 2.3 MMT – down to 134 MMT - due to wea...

Hogs and Pigs Report Preview

USDA will release its June quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday. The expectation is a total herd of 72.016 million head, that is down 0.7 percent fro...

Changes in Trade

The increasing global demand for oilseeds is well known and more than 40 percent of the soybeans produced move into international trade. This compares with...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.61/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.99/bushel, down $0.3925 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Eid-Al-Adha will be celebrated in Muslim countries from 27 June until 1 J...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.8825/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.3825/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Drought is a growing concern not only for the U.S. but also several regions of Europe, notably Scandinavia, southern Germany, and centr...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentina’s wheat outlook for the 2023/24 season continues to worsen and fall below expectations. The lack of rainfall in the western areas of...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Brazil Grain Storage Increases

Much like the U.S. historically, Brazil’s capacity to store its grain (wheat, coarse grains, rice, soybeans) output has been increasing with its prod...

Cattle on Feed

USDA estimates that U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 3 percent from a year ago on June 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.96 million head - 5...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for June 9-15, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 109,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024, were offset by reductions for the Philippi...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.88/bushel, down $0.3275 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.465/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&n...

Oilseed Highlights – Weather Roller Coaster

The Market It was a volatile week that started with price spikes on fears of a devastating drought but then sharply reversed on prospects for improved mois...

Market Commentary: Correction on a Glimmer of Hope

Generally, the higher they rise the harder they fall but today’s correction on a still murky weather report ended with some restraint from going comp...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $6.2075/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $7.39/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. ...

Geopolitics Trumps Trade; Sinking into Oblivion

Geopolitics Trumps Trade President Joe Biden hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi today despite the latter’s dubious record on democracy and re...

Livestock Round Up: Chicken in Labs, Cattle on Feed

Move over Singapore, the U.S. has become the second country to allow cell cultured – or “lab grown” –chicken to hit the commercial...

Market Commentary: EPA Volumes Sink Soyoil; Grains Rally on Crop Conditions

Just one day after this analyst wrote that grain futures were likely to take a break from their rally amid overbought technical conditions, futures extende...

Sinking Ships

Russia says it expects the Black Sea grain corridor agreement to end on 18 July, though it is willing to keep talking. The Russian deputy foreign minister...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $6.2875/bushel, up $0.3125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $7.345/bushel, up $0.3875 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 June 2023  According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, as of 5 June, total acreage of spring grains and legum...

Market Commentary: A Pause Amid the Weather Market Storm

Last week’s CBOT trade rightly featured significant rallies as the U.S. weather forecast remains stubbornly hot and dry in both near- and long-term f...

Farm Bill Budget and Battles Ahead

Last week, WPI covered some proposals that are being put forth to be included in the farm bill (see here). This week, an overview of where the farm bill ti...

Avocado Dominance

Around one-half of global avocado exports are from Mexico and 86 percent of them are shipped to the U.S. The dominance of this trade is illustrated by Mexi...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.4375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.9575/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan will receive another 20,000 MT of wheat from India in a new d...

Market Commentary: Shorts Get Crushed

For a second day in a row, large capital flows moved to stem exposure to a seriously bad weather forecast. Showers will decorate the Southern Plains and so...

U.S. Juneteenth Holiday

The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed Monday, 19 June 2023 in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspec...

Farm Bill Placeholder Bills Put Forward

Some recent legislative developments on Capitol Hill are a good sign that the farm bill is still in the process of being baked; lawmakers are introducing a...

Oilseeds Highlights - Wicked Weekend

The Market The trade is spooked about the current weather pattern. This is especially true for corn but it is becoming a factor in oilseeds as well. This w...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.4025/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.88/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close.  J...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for the period June 2-8, 2023. Wheat:  Net sales of 165,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024. Export shipments of 249,700 MT...

Market Commentary – Shades of 2012

Today’s Drought Monitor map (see below) reflects the worsening moisture conditions across the heart of the U.S. production belt.  Worse, the he...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.2325/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.615/bushel, up $0.3125 from yesterday's close. ...

China Balancing Act; USMCA Loophole

China Balancing Act A diplomatic spat between Seoul and Beijing has relations between these two East Asian neighbors quickly souring. Meanwhile, Chinese Pr...

Livestock Roundup: Bullish and Dynamic

We’ve moved past Memorial Day, this weekend is Fathers’ Day, and it will soon by the 4th of July Independence Day holiday – all prime tim...

Market Commentary – Correction and Profit-taking

Volume was generally lighter (except for HRS) as a technically over-bought market took advantage of a correction for profit-taking. Right now it is all abo...

Black Sea Situation

  Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 June 2023  The second week of June remained bearish with the fundamental factors remaining the same: lower e...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.0775/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&...

China In-Country Analysis

We regret to inform subscribers that WPI's analyst in China is currently ill and thus there is no report this week. ...

Market Commentary: More Weather Premium

Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June.  New crop futures traded higher again today as there is still no impro...

TPP Re-enactment Society; Exporting Emissions; Pott versus Kettle

TPP Re-enactment Society USTR says the next and fourth round of negotiations on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) will be held in Busan, South Kor...

Factors of Inflation

The monthly CPI for May was up 4 percent over 12 months; that is down from the April to April annual increase of 4.9 percent and slightly below the pre-rep...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.125/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.3625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisian President Kais Saied said that efforts must be made to insure th...

Market Commentary: Lack of Rain Driving Out Shorts

Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June.  Agricultural commodity futures continue to be driven by the El Nino a...

Growing Pains for Indoor Vertical Agriculture

The leading indoor vertical agriculture (also known as controlled environment agriculture) AeroFarms has filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11&n...

Policy Shorts for Mid-June

USTR: Two years ago, it would have been deemed implausible but USTR Katherine Tai is now being criticized by Congressional Democrats for a lack of consulta...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.1725/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.3375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Trade activity was more quiet last week in Brazil. China made purchases for July and August positions but the number of vessels involved was limit...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s projection for U.S. soybeans is for 2023/24 ending stocks of 350 million bushels, up 15 million from 2022/23. Global 2023/24 ending stocks are...

WASDE Corn

USDA’s projection for U.S. corn is for increases to both beginning and ending stocks: U.S. exports are lowered 50 million bushels and ending stocks a...

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s projection for U.S wheat in the current 2023/24 season is total U.S. wheat production of 1,665 million bushels.  This is a production lev...

Market Commentary: Soyoil Beats WASDE Story

Before the June report was issued, corn and wheat were trading lower and soybeans were up by around 18 cents. Overall, the report was bearish both corn and...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Soars to 1 Percent in May After seeing food prices rise by just .4 percent in April, May saw a sharp rebound driven by the co...

Oilseed Highlights – Dizzying Soyoil Situation

It was another losing week for soymeal but soyoil will likely be at the top of the financial market’s percentage gainers.  According to the CFT...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.0425/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...

WASDE Bullish Cattle, Uncertain for Hogs

Most eyes on today’s WASDE were looking at the crop side since this is the first look at the 2023-24 supply and demand numbers. The livestock project...

Market Commentary: Betting Against the Weatherman

Corn, wheat, and soybean futures all rose today, despite some forecasts for an improving weather pattern. There may also be some pre-WASDE positioning wher...

Trade Policy Knocking

Except for an overstated IPEF, President Biden has put trade policy up on a shelf but there is knocking from all directions to put its policymaking back on...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.1025/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.2625/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for May 26-June 1, 2023  Wheat:  The new 2023/2024 marketing year began June 1. A total of 877,400 MT in sales were ca...

Market Commentary: Weather Everywhere

Today’s trading brought corn and wheat back down to earth based on possible improved rains next week. Emphasis on possible since nothing is assured...

Greenest Exporters; Slow to Go Green

Greenest Exporters Transatlantic duties on steel and aluminum were suspended in 2001 after the U.S. and EU agreed to pursue a Global Arrangement on Sustain...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.0425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.1675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.&...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 May – 2 June 2023  Russian farmers are in the final stage of spring planting. Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported...

Market Commentary: Stirred but Unshaken

There was a lot of input coming at the market today, but the only significant movements came in corn and soyoil.  First up was news that the Kakhovka...

Brazil Helps Brussels; Transatlantic Double Vision

Brazil Helps Brussels EU foreign policy has designated Latin America as the region of the world deserving closer relations. Most of the countries in the re...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.08/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.2775/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s current zero wheat import tax is expected to be extended...

Market Commentary: Mixed Bag

Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June.  It was a modest volume day with trading initially unclear about what...

Proposition 12 Clarity and Summer Pork Demand

Last week, the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) issued a “Q&A” fact sheet on Prop 12. The primary question answered was...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.975/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.24/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...

Forever Poor

Dhaka’s The Daily Star reports that Bangladesh seeks to avoid the increased trade disciplines that comes with the country’s elevation above lea...

Pork Decline

Europe has been a major producer, consumer, and exporter of pork but that is changing. Seven out of the top ten per capita consuming countries in the world...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans  It seems that there were several traders who were long on positions and suddenly became nervous as the demand failed to materialize. Consequ...

Market Commentary: Major Markets Bullish for Different Reasons

The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with each of the major markets rallying based on different sets of fundamental reasons.  Corn was the decided u...

Diverging Data on Jobs

As WPI has reported many times over the past two years, conventional economic data is difficult to decipher because the impact of COVID and its aftermath w...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.09/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.19/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  J...

Oilseed Highlights – Whether the Weather

The Market There were notable price movements the past few days despite it being a holiday abbreviated trading week. November soybeans gained 37.25 cents i...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for May 12-18, 2023  Wheat:  Net sales reductions of 45,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were...

Market Commentary: Weather Market

Thursday’s release of USDA’s weekly Drought Monitor report reinforced that new crops in the ground could begin to feel some stress. The report...

SNAP and Meat and Poultry Retail Demand

USDA released its updated food expenditure series this morning. Going into the farm bill and SNAP debate – and in light of the debt ceiling deal...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.925/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.1075/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Deforestation Proxy; Perpetual Crisis; Perpetual Costs

Deforestation Proxy It was revealed this week that Brazil is exporting 120 KMT of soybeans to the U.S. and the State Department immediately announced that...

Market Commentary: Old Crop Futures Hit Decision Point

The CBOT traded a volatile day with overnight weakness leading to a selling spike as the day session started. That weakness, however, was quickly met with...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Financials Reports Show Major Hog Companies Awash in Debt On 30 May, Ao Nong Biotechnology Co., Ltd., the fifth largest hog farming company in Ch...

Siloing of U.S. Agriculture; TTC Happy Talk; I{EF Spotlight

Siloing of U.S. Agriculture  California state legislators saw the Supreme Court’s green light on Prop 12’s Sacramento driven animal welfar...

Sorghum: Notable but Volatile

Sorghum is a minor crop, logging in just 5 percent of the global production of its close cousin corn. This is in large part due to its lower yield and more...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.94/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $5.9425/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Jul...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22 – 26 May 2023  Russian farmers continue their spring planting campaign. The Minister of Agriculture reports that aroun...

Market Commentary: CBOT Trade Reflects Long Term Bearish Outlook

The CBOT started the week on a bearish note with expectations for strong planting progress across the U.S. and sluggish demand weighing on markets. Friday&...

IPEF Blah, TTC Heat; African Woes

IPEF Blah, TTC Heat USTR Katherine Tai achieved agreement over the weekend on language focused on supply chains in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for...

Healthier Diet Cost

Nutritionists advise eating more fruits and vegetables (F&V). On a calorie basis, F&V can be more expensive than a diet of carbs and fats so a tria...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.94/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close.  J...

Debt and Budget Deal Moves to a Vote Tomorrow

Over Memorial Day weekend, Congressional leaders and the White House announced an agreement on the debt limit and a budget plan that puts caps on discretio...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s President said that recent wheat shortages have been...

Memorial Day Holiday

U.S. financial markets are closed on Monday, 29 May and consequently there will be no Ag Perspectives report on that day. WPI's analysis reports will resum...

Meat Loaf Wisdom; Enemy of My Enemy

Meat Loaf Wisdom U.S. Trade Ambassador Katherine Tai concluded a U.S. led meeting of APEC trade ministers in Detroit today without an agreed joint statemen...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.04/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilseed Highlights – Head Spinning Week

The Market If traders were nervous headed into the three-day Memorial Day weekend, concerns appeared to be to the upside. The lack of demand had soybean pr...

SCOTUS Rules on WOTUS

The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled on the Sackett v EPA case yesterday regarding the definition of waters of the United States (WOTUS) u...

Market Commentary: Wishy Washy

Sometimes markets trade with momentum, an ongoing path in the same direction. Sometimes there are reversals. There is often a day trading open that initial...

Livestock Round Up: Pork and Pigs Under Pressure

It’s a tough time to be in the hog and pig business. California’s Proposition 12 was upheld by the Supreme Court, and with that decision, Massa...

Wetting Down Party; DeGrowth for All

Wetting Down Party Farmers, real estate developers, and industry are celebrating a Supreme Court ruling that limits the government’s regulation of ce...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.9075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.0425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Downward Price Pressure to Remain Firm Through Q2 According to the latest official survey data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rur...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for May 12-18, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales reductions of 45,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were up 7...

May Cold Storage Report

April 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were up from March and were 2.02 percent greater than April 2022 as the industry continues to rebuild stockpil...

Europe’s Bad Boy; Africa’s Bad Country

Europe’s Bad Boy Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is not well liked in Brussels, nor in Kyiv. Not only does he rankle Western Europe’s dem...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8725/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.0625/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15 – 19 May 2023  Russia’s grain markets remained bearish. Russia’s position during negotiations of the UN gr...

South Korean Beef Supply

South Korea imposed increased inspection requirements on U.S> supplied beef following the finding of an atypical BSE case in South Carolina. Atypical ca...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.775/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. ...

Debt Ceiling Update and Ag Appropriations

The debt ceiling and budget agreement talks between Congress and the White House resumed yesterday, after a Sunday phone call between President Biden, as h...

USMCA Action and Future; Geopolitics Drives Trade Policy

USMCA Action and Future Washington invoked the USMCA’s rapid-response mechanism against Mexican worker rights violations for an eighth time. The Bide...

Grain is Out, Veggies are In

Some members of the U.S. Congress want more support going to fruits and vegetables. They note that the overwhelming majority of farm bill income support an...

Follow the Money

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres attended the weekend’s G-7 summit in Hiroshima. At the meeting, he suggested the UN Security Council and the Br...

USA HRW Overpriced

Bloomberg cites UKRAgroConsult’s data showing that U.S. HRW wheat has been priced above competing sources (France, Russia, Ukraine, EU) for well more...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.71/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.0625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The European weather is shifting more favorably for crop development over the next week with cooler-than-normal temperatures predicted...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat There was a lot of anticipation regarding the rains that were forecast for this past weekend, and most of the Buenos Aires province received a good a...

Cattle on Feed: Placements Higher than Consensus Expectation

USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed on feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 May was...

Oilseed Highlights – In the Basement

The Market The floor fell out of the soybean market this week as the November contract lost 48.25 cents, closing below $12/bushel for the first time in two...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.545/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary – The Bear Trifecta

Good weather boosting crops in Brazil, the U.S. and elsewhere, an extension of the Black Sea grain corridor, and a rising dollar all conspire to extend the...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Price Pressures For Domestic Hogs and Chickens Continue In a recent interview, the chief pork industry analyst for the Ministry of Agriculture an...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.5525/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.1175/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close...

Transatlantic Biofuel Split; Small Potatoes

Transatlantic Biofuel Split Brussels is ready to finalize its Renewable Energy Directive III (RED) with just one small glitch remaining. France and some ot...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for May 5-11, 2023. Wheat:  Net sales reductions of 42,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were down...

Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Renewed; Fund Selling Hammers CBOT

The CBOT feature one-direction trade at mid-week – lower – with funds continuing to rapidly exit long positions in the grain markets and/or pil...

Toward a New U.S. Trade Policy

For many years U.S. agriculture was able to compete as a low-cost, bulk commodity supplier. Its farms were large and consolidated, enabling economies of sc...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.255/bushel, down $0.22 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8 – 12 May 2023  Russia’s grain markets remained bearish with the volume of trade miniscule because of traditional...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8125/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.475/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close...

Debt Limit Spread; Agricultural Royalty

Debt Limit Spread President Biden says he will return early from his trip to the G-7 meeting in Japan due to the lack of agreement on raising the U.S. debt...

Perking up Supply

Although coffee futures are edging back up (Arabica hit a peak a month ago), prices are descending in longer dated contracts as Brazil is expected to suppl...

Proposed FMMO Reforms Submitted to USDA AMS

As we outlined back in March, reform to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FFMO) pricing formula is a good bet for the farm bill. Indeed, reform efforts are...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan is facing a severe infestation of Moroccan locusts in the exp...

Summary of Futures

Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: CBOT Starts the Week with A Bullish Chorus

Friday’s WASDE was bearish corn and soybean futures, but you wouldn’t know that from Monday’s price action. Both markets turned higher wi...

Zero Sum Technology; Big is Better

Zero Sum Technology The center-right European People’s Party is undermining codification of the Green Deal’s goal of halving pesticide usage. O...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Olive Oil Shortage

The price of olive oil has hit over $6,000/MT on a combination of increased demand and a production shortfall in Spain caused by drought, or what some clai...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Wheat prices continue to rise in Argentina’s local market, mainly due to millers’ participation as farmer sales remain low. While many mi...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russian sources indicate the country plans to extend the Black Sea grain export corridor agreement for another 60 days starting 18 May...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, and ending stocks, and lower exports compared with 2022/23.  The soybea...

WASDE Corn

USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn is for higher ending stocks.  The corn crop is projected at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up more than 10...

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