THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 higher Dec meal: 1.10 higher Dec soyoil: 12 lower Dec corn: 1/4 lower Dec wheat: ...
Articles
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 August 2019 Domestic 3rd grade milling wheat prices in the European Part of Russia grew in ruble expression and decreased in d...
Technical Views - Firmer with Short Covering
SPREADS November crush falls to 87c/bu while oilshare trades to 33 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 13c to 13 1/3c while Dec 19/Dec 20 trades out...
AM Outlook - Firmer
GOOD MORNING, Pressure from weaker grain trade dominated price action yesterday. Good weather, adequate rainfall patterns, and most of all, seasonal...
War’s Worsening Prognosis
President Trump says his trade war on China is “having a devastating effect” on the Middle Kingdom and “they have to make a deal,”...
Breaking Down Farm Income for 2019
Farm income is projected to increase in 2019, which would be the third year in a row of growing farm income, but the reason for the most recent two years&r...
Market Commentary
Good weekend weather, lower FOB values for wheat world-wide, and fund selling pressured the CBOT today. Corn and wheat futures posted new contract lows wit...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.61/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.535/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Ending Import Dependence
Many are asking the net long-term impacts of China’s near embargo on purchases of soybeans from the U.S. The historical picture is very clear. The U...
PM Post - Nailed it
THE OPEN November beans: 6 lower December meal: .20 lower December soyoil: 32 lower December corn: 3 3/4 lower December wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS After last week’s wheat tender Egypt’s GASC has booked 2.13 MMT of wheat this buying year – 935,000 MT...
Technical Views - Testing Lower
SPREADS October crush trades up to 1.01c/bu while oilshare is steady at 32.68 percent. Corn spreads are weaker with Dec 19/Dec 20 trading out to 35c...
AM Outlook - Lower
GOOD MORNING, It's a new month but the market is under pressure again as the weather remains mostly benign with the lack of any freeze event, and just enou...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6975/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.625/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary
Reminder: the CBOT and CME markets will be closed Sunday night, 1 September and during the day on Monday, 2 September in observance of the U.S. Labor Day h...
U.S. Futures Exchanges Closed Monday, 2 September 2019
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 2 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. As a result, we will not upda...
Biofuel Comments Due Today, RFS Adding to Uncertainty
Today is the deadline for filing comments with EPA on the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for the 2020 RFS, and it comes as the Administration i...
US-PRC – What to Believe?; China/EU Burn Down the Amazon; Big Food’s Mojo
US-PRC - What to Believe? The negotiations are going great again. All is well. Be calm markets. Are the two sides, China and the U.S. on track together? Is...
PM Post - Fundamentals and Technicals Align
THE OPEN November beans: 4 higher December meal: .10 lower December soyoil: 2 higher December corn: 1 1/2 higher December whe...
Technical Views - Mostly Higher
SPREADS October crush is lower trading back to 1.00c/bu while oilshare firms to 32.43 percent, bouncing off the 32 percent level. Sep/Dec corn trades...
AM Outlook - Liquidation
GOOD MORNING, It is the end of the month, first notice day, and part of a 3-day weekend, always good for contract liquidation. The COT report tonight...
Market Commentary
Following on Wednesday’s market, futures were mixed over night with beans and corn up but wheat continuing its downward trend. A mixed close was expe...
U.S.-Chinese Trade Dilemma
We are about to enter the 15th month of the tariff war between the U.S. and China, and to put it bluntly, a resolution seems further off today than it did...
Livestock Round Up
Stirring Through the Ashes after the Tyson Fire Tomorrow will mark three weeks since the major fire that shutdown the Tyson beef packing plant in Garden Ci...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Fires and Soybeans, U.S. Soy Exports
Brazilian Fires Placing Focus on Soybeans The practice of burning forestland during the dry season in Brazil has been going on for many years. Fire has bee...
PM Post - Pivotal Trade
THE OPEN November beans: 3 1/4 higher December meal: .70 higher December soyoil: 18 lower December corn: 2 3/4 higher December wheat: 1 1/2 lo...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 661,700 metric tons for 2019/2020--a marketing year high--were up 11 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior...
Letter Grade B; Wrong Tax Goal; Vote Now for President
Letter Grade B Donald Trump claims to be the world’s greatest negotiator but he only gets a B grade for his trade deal with Japan. Under pressure to...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS October crush trades slightly lower at 1.05c/bu while oilshare corrects lower again down to 32 percent. Buy meal/sell soyoil appears to be th...
AM Outlook - Cooler Outlook
GOOD MORNING, The markets closed higher yesterday with beans and corn establishing outside days marking a technical reversal off the lows with upside follo...
Short-Term Advantage: China
President Trump says that the Chinese asked to resume negotiations, but nothing is publicly scheduled, and the Chinese foreign ministry says it knows nothi...
Market Commentary
The CBOT rallied today on hints that the Trump administration may be planning policy action to boost biofuels demand. There was no time frame given in U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.71/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy A TRUE PRISONER’S DILEMMA At last weekend’s G7 summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump’s public ruminating on the progre...
Drought Shifting Consumption
Southeast Asia has experienced droughty conditions the past several months and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia/Pacific regio...
PM Post - Best Reversal Signal in Weeks
THE OPEN November beans: 3/4 higher December meal: .70 lower December soyoil: 1 higher December corn: 1 lower December wheat: ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 August 2019 Domestic wheat prices in the European Part of Russia mainly increased, at different rates in different regions, wh...
Technical Views - Calls are Mixed
SPREADS October crush trades to 1.09c/bu while oilshare leaks lower to 32.36 percent. Dec 2019/Dec 2020 corn congests from 36 1/2c to 37c. Dec/...
AM Outlook - Favorite Spread
GOOD MORNING, As we head into Labor Day, funds continue to build their net short positions in corn while maintaining an overall larger short in beans and m...
Revolutionizing Agriculture
EU agricultural policy has focused on assisting farmers in extracting higher prices for food, based on quality built over centuries, with branding both on...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was broadly lower in quiet trading today with little fresh news to spark much activity. The markets are continuing to digest the U.S.-Japan trade...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6625/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7675/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Ethanol: Wait Until Next Year
It has been a tough year for the ethanol industry. Volatile corn markets, EPA’s delay until the last minute on granting a year-round waiver for...
China’s Future Feed Demand
China’s consumption of animal protein is changing fast due to the impact of ASF on its swine herd. While some estimates are that up to a half of the...
PM Post - More Corn!
THE OPEN Nov beans: 8 1/2 lower Dec meal: 2.30 lower Dec soyoil: 26 lower Dec corn: 1 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 2 lower The markets open...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt may face serious problems as climate change is raising the water level of the Mediterranean and a...
Technical Views - Least Resistance
SPREADS October crush trades at 1.08c/bu while oilshare is steady at 32.57 percent. September contract liquidation continues as we approach fir...
AM Outlook - No Freeze
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower on net fund short positions, non-threatening weather, and improved crop progress report. Funds seem to be building a n...
Market Commentary
It was all about trade today at the CBOT. The weekend news of a U.S.-Japan trade deal was quickly and eagerly digested by the hog and cattle markets while...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview There was significant movement in Brazil’s market last week, both on spot positions as well as new crop position...
One Year Balancing Act; Saving the Rainforest; Squeezing the Brits
One Year Balancing Act Favorable numbers for Wall Street and the unemployment rate are two metrics Donald Trump needs to win reelection. Employment has not...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6825/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Japan Deal Unveiled, Promised as a Big Deal for U.S. Corn
The announcement of a U.S.- Japan trade agreement over the weekend at the G7 couldn’t have come at a better time for the markets and for President Tr...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News With summer drawing to an end for the Northern Hemisphere, the wheat crops are largely made and the corn and oilseed crops are in their final...
Commodity Sales Commitments
President Trump makes every free market economist cringe when he boasts about getting agreement from other national leaders to purchase more American produ...
PM Post - Higher Before Progress Report
THE OPEN November beans: 9 higher December meal: 1.20 higher December soyoil: 14 higher December corn: 2 1/4 higher Sep...
Technical Views - Possibilities
SPREADS October crush trades at 1.08c/bu while oilshare is a firmer trading to 32.79 percent. Bean spreads remain wide with Nov/Jan trading out to 14...
AM Outlook - Digesting Dynamics
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to digest current USDA numbers, ProFarmer numbers, and trade war tensions that were ratcheted higher last week sending m...
Bullish COF Report
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report this afternoon, which was bullish as expected. The total inventory in feedlots with capacity of 1,000...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies...
Cattle on Feed
• USDA reports that August 1 U.S. Cattle on Feed inventory is slightly above year ago; This is the highest August 1 inventory since the series b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6775/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7775/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Psychological Warfare; Rabid at the G7
Psychological Warfare In addition to farmers, China knows that Donald Trump’s other weak spot is the American economy and, more specifically, the sto...
Tweets Lack Impact
The Wall Street Journal analyzed how the S&P 500 reacted on the days President Trump tweeted more optimistically about trade policy; the argument being...
PM Post - All About China
THE OPEN November beans: 5 1/4 lower December meal: 1.00 lower December soyoil: 21 lower December corn: 4 lower Decemb...
Technical Views - Testing New Lows
SPREADS Oct. crush trades at 1.09c/bu while oilshare trends down to 32.58 percent. Meal steady against falling soyoil today. The Dec 2019/20 co...
AM Outlook - Somewhere Lower
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to consolidate within recent trading ranges with grains still not far from their recent highs. The soy complex bounced...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview; Broiler and Other Protein Expansion
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of...
The Big Crop Production Debate
These are the kind of times that show why grain farming is such a risky business. After several years of grain and soy prices being pressured by very big c...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Crop Tour; Too Much Rain in India; China's Soyoil; Canadian Oilseeds
U.S. Soy Export sales Highlights Today USDA released the weekly export sales report for the week ending 15 August. It indicated net sales of soybeans total...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.71/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.7175/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Few Ethanol Options; Tsk-Tsk, Tusk; Look Out ERS
Few Ethanol Options Reuters reports that President Trump met today with USDA Secretary Sonny Purdue and EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler to receive options...
PM Post - Distorted Soybean Market
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 1/4 higher Dec meal: 1.70 higher Dec soyoil: 16 higher Dec corn: 2 1/4 higher Dec w...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 594,600 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 29 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. &n...
Technical Views - Opportunities
SPREADS October crush trades firmer to 1.10c/bu while oilshare trades firmer at 32.72%. Corn spreads are firmer with Dec/March trading into 11 3/4c f...
AM Outlook - Similar Day
GOOD MORNING, The trading picture today looks similar to yesterday as grains struggle to stay afloat vs. a firmer soy complex trade. Wheat continues...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values...
Tax on U.S. Consumers; Subsidizing China
Tax on U.S. Consumers Under the threat of even larger antidumping duties, Mexico agreed to the demand from Washington that its tomato shipments northward b...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 August 2019 Domestic prices in the European part of Russia mainly increased, partially because of the limited offer that resul...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7025/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.68/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Waiting for Oilseeds to Lead
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 1/2 higher Dec meal: .90 higher Dec soyoil: 33 higher Dec corn: 3/4 higher Dec wheat: 4 lower Prices op...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Surges to Nearly RMB 21/kg China’s average live pig price set a new all-time high of RMB 20.92/kg ($2.98/kg) or RMB 9.49/lb...
Technical Views - Many
SPREADS October crush is 1.09c/bu while oilshare is slightly lower at 32.63 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 12 1/2c to 12 3/4c while Dec 19...
AM Outlook - Mixed
GOOD MORNING, Funds were net sellers in grains yesterday which probably makes them even in corn to slightly short in wheat. Outright fund positions i...
Trade, Ethanol, and Politics
In gearing up for agriculture and ag policy, the 2020 election cycle is being looked at through the prism of politics. Typically, the farm vote is reliably...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.6875/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 19 Wheat closed at $4.665/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&n...
Russia Rapprochement; Populism is Universal
Russia Rapprochement French President Emmanuel Macron met with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, and both agreed that changes in Ukraine have imp...
Ethanol’s Uphill Fight
U.S. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler is accustomed to attacks from environmentalists, but attacks by farmers over the agency’s small refinery exempt...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS This past week has been the Eid Al Adha period in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region. Banks and...
PM Post - How Low Can it Go?
THE OPEN November beans: 5 3/4 higher December meal: 1.50 higher December soyoil: 25 higher December wheat: 1 higher December...
AM Outlook - Really Pro the Farmer
GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer this morning after the release of crop ratings and the first results of the Pro Farmer crop tour. Despite recent rain...
Technical Views - Read Carefully
SPREADS October crush trades at 1.09c/bu while oilshare is slightly weaker at 2.78 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 12 1/4c to 12 1/2c, while Dec...
Confusion over Grain Glitch Tax Provision Continues
The comment period for the implementing rule on one of the biggest, most controversial and complex ag provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) c...
Market Commentary
Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2”...
State-Directed Capitalism; De Minimis Duty Implications; Research versus Development
State-Directed Capitalism Most governments around the world use policy to spur specific business winners in their economies. Canada will provide near...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.745/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Domestic Situation As has been widely reported, Argentine President Mauricio Macri lost last week’s primary election against the Al...
Pro Farmer Tour in Perspective
The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour kicks off this week, and already there are reports of the analysts finding problems in the fields with immaturity, of cour...
PM Post - Funds Reluctant to Return Long
THE OPEN November beans: 8 3/4 lower December meal: 2.90 lower December soyoil: 15 lower December corn: 6 1/4 lower December...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Black Sea wheat is getting pushed out of Southeast Asian markets due to rising freight costs. As freight rates increase ahead of the emission...
Technical Views - Can Imagine Lower Beans
SPREADS November crush trades at 96c/bu while oilshare breaks 33 percent to trade back to 32.98 percent. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn spreads are weaker...
AM Outlook - Watch Meal and Oil
GOOD MORNING, Today's price action is lower as beneficial rainfall blanketed the drier portions of Iowa over the weekend. In the west, moderate...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7075/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Bond Yield, China, and Buying Opportunities
The yield curve for Treasury bonds inverted on Wednesday, and that sparked a major stock sell-off as well as rampant speculation about the state of the eco...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private y...
Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance
Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the...
PM Post - Modest Comeback to Continue
THE OPEN November beans: 5 3/4 higher December meal: 1.50 higher December soyoil; 19 higher December corn: 1 1/2 higher December w...
Technical Views - Corn Oversold?
SPREADS November crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare is 33.26 percent. Corn spreads stabilize with Dec 19/Dec 20 trading to 32 3/4c from lows of 34...
AM Outlook - Watch Out for the Bear Trap
GOOD MORNING, The commitment-of-trader's report will be out tonight. Will it show that the managed money funds flipped from a long to a short positio...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimate...
Grain Markets Face Uncertainty
It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the...
China’s Tougher Approach; Tariff Alternatives
China’s Tougher Approach The leadership of the Chinese government reportedly ended its secret enclave meeting at Baidaihe, and the question is, what...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade War Damage; NOPA July Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Trade War‘s Long-Term Damage to U.S. Soybean Sector It has now been over 13 months since China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans in respon...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.71/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.69/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Tyson Fire and Cattle Markets; Canadian Feeder Pigs
Tyson Fire and Cattle Markets As Matt Herrington reported on Monday, cattle futures were down the limit after Tyson’s packing plant in Garden City, K...
PM Post - Shorter than Short
THE OPEN November beans: steady December meal: .80 lower December soyoil: 18 lower December corn: 3 higher December wheat:&n...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 462,200 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 5 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn:&n...
Technical Views - Mixed Day
SPREADS October crush trades to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades to 33 percent. Dec/March corn narrows into 12 1/2c from 13 1/4c, while Dec 19/Dec 20 c...
AM Outlook - Firmer Beans
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with more short-covering in beans, meal, and corn, with lower soyoil vs. meal trade. The macro pressure o...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. On...
War’s Declining Options; Ethanol Dreams; Meat Tax Cleaver
War’s Declining Options WPI is not the only observer that President Trump blinked when he postponed his threatened imposition of additional tariffs,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 August 2019 Domestic prices moved in different directions: rising in regions where they had decreased too much the week before a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.7025/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7375/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&...
PM Post - Buy Wheat/Sell Corn = Fan Favorite
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 1/2 lower Dec meal: 2.10 lower Dec soyoil: 3 lower Dec corn: 1 higher Dec wheat: 3 higher Prices...
China In-Country Analysis
Marco Trends China Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in 7.5 Years While Beijing has been occupied with the events in Hong Kong, food prices soared an astou...
Technical Views - Lows Beget Lows
SPREADS Oct. crush trades 1.08c/bu while oilshare corrects back under 33% to trade to 32.82%. Spreads are weaker still with Dec 19/20 corn trading ou...
AM Outlook - Have to Trade the Numbers
GOOD MORNING, The market continued to respond to the USDA report on Monday with grains undergoing a round of long liquidation while shorts covered in...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day...
Latest on Tariffs for Chinese Imports
With China’s economic data scheduled to be released tomorrow, the U.S. has made yet another round of adjustments to the pending 10 percent tariffs on...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.765/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Trump Blinked, Farmers Lose; What Scares You?
Trump Blinked, Farmers Lose The White House announcement that tariffs on laptops, phones, clothing and other goods from China will be delayed until after t...
Betting Against an Early Frost
USDA reported that adverse spring weather prevented 19 million acres (7.68 million hectares) from being planted this season. To put that number in perspect...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia is adjusting its wheat import requirements for implementation as of the next tender. Trade...
PM Post - Trumped Again
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 higher Dec meal: 1.40 higher Dec soyoil: 18 lower Dec corn: 13 lower Dec wheat: 5 1/...
Technical Views - More Post Report Adjustments
SPREADS October crush trades to 1.09c/bu while oilshare trades to 33.33%. Corn spreads were sharply lower; the Dec 19/Dec 20 inverse of 3c is n...
AM Outlook - Sellers on Rallies
GOOD MORNING, The report yesterday was slightly bullish beans and bearish corn, which caught funds on the wrong side of both markets. Skeptics may be...
Ethanol, Pesticides and Politics
The EPA announced late Friday that it had granted 31 small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2018, bringing the total number to 7.4 percent of the overall 19...
Tiananmen Moment; Macri’s Risk to Farmers
Tiananmen Moment The U.S.-China trade war has justifiably captured the attention of macro watchers, and each day brings more warning signals. Today the Peo...
Market Commentary
It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.9275/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.2775 from yesterday's close.&...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean,...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA reports for August 2019: Changes for 2018/19 include reduced soybean crush, reflecting lower domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean ending...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reports for August 2019: U.S. oilseed production is projected at 111.5 million tons, down 4.5 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean pr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans The soybean markets finally started moving with China actively buying at the beginning of last week. Crushers there decided to move after Pr...
WASDE Corn
USDA reports for August 2019: Larger supplies, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.9 bi...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980...
Mitigating Losses
It was an expensive day on LaSalle Street for those previously bullish the 2019/20 U.S. corn crop. Those betting that USDA’s second look at corn plan...
PM Post - Markets React
THE OPEN Nov beans: 7 1/4 lower Dec meal: 2.60 lower Dec soyoil: 13 lower Dec corn: 6 lower Dec wheat:&nb...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat prices are steady/lower across Europe and the Black Sea to start the week with export competition and the advanced harvest progress kee...
Market Reaction - Funds Must Deal with Corn Length
MARKET REACTION Corn prices sharply lower down 6 percent, taking wheat along for the ride, bean losses tempered with lower than expected acreage.&nbs...
Technical Views - Lower Across the Board
SPREADS Crush values continue firm with October at 1.08c/bu and oilshare a strong 33%. Dec/March corn trades from 10 1/4c to 10 1/2, with the Dec 19/...
AM Outlook - Market is Ready to Adjust
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board this morning as better than expected rainfall crosses portions of the Midwest that need it. Cor...
China’s Pitfalls; Boris Channels Donald
China’s Pitfalls Just because the Chinese government is communist in structure doesn’t mean it escapes the heavy dose of politics experienced i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.1775/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.995/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today wi...
Crop Condition and Yield
Uncertainty going into a WASDE has rarely been this large. In a continuing search for clues, the quiver keeps coming up empty. The known metrics of history...
PM Post - Funds are Hedged
THE OPEN November beans: 7 higher December meal: 1.50 higher December soyoil: 33 higher December corn: 3 higher Decemb...
Why Aren’t Farmland Values Dropping?
Farmland values are proving to be very stubborn given the state of farm commodity prices. Cropland values have increased $50/acre in 2019, up 1.2 percent f...
Technical Views - Meal Correction Upwards
SPREADS September KC/Chicago spreads moved to new contract lows yesterday. KC wheat/corn spreads moved back to levels conducive to putting HRW back i...
AM Outlook - Soyoil Needs to Congest Gains
GOOD MORNING! Yesterday's price action was higher in beans and corn with the latter finding a bit more hedging as prices regained the upside. Sharply...
Market Commentary
After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the...
Pork Exports Show Signs of Progress and Risk
The June export data for pork shows the Jekyll and Hyde situation facing the industry. Typically, those sales follow the seasonal slaughter pattern and sta...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 487,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 27 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.1825/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Oilseed Highlights: Top Soybean Supplier; U.S. Soy Sales; Brazil’s Soy Crop; France’s Rapeseed Crop
U.S. Soybeans Should Now Be the Top Choice for Most Markets China’s announcement this week that it was cancelling the 25 percent tariff exemption on...
Confusion and the August WASDE
USDA’s August WASDE will be out at noon (EDT) on 12 August, and to say it is highly anticipated is an understatement. Grain and soy futures market tr...
Trade War Gaming
President Trump’s economic war with China came into sharper focus this week as markets reacted to his latest salvo of tariffs. Critics warned that th...
PM Post - Short Covering
THE OPEN Nov beans: 7 higher Dec meal: 1.50 higher Dec soyoil: 23 higher Dec corn: 3 higher Dec wheat: 2 1/2 hig...
Technical Views - Testing Higher
SPREADS Spreads were firming yesterday with the Goldman Roll this week. Dec/March corn trades into 9 1/4c from 9 3/4c. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn...
AM Outlook - Least Resistance is Higher
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board this morning on a further correction of the recent down-move and an extended outlook for warmer and drier...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild su...
Trade War Hits Environment; Breaking the Amber Box
Trade War Hits Environment Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research reported that the Amazon suffered a surge in deforestation during the past...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 July-2 August 2019 Domestic price development was atypical for this time of year with increases in the European part of Russia th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.14/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.8825/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - All Over the Place
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: .10 higher Dec soyoil: 12 higher Dec corn: 1 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 1 1/4...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Soars 3.6 Percent in Last Two Weeks of July China’s national average live hog price had another round of sharp increases to...
Technical Views - Sideways to Lower
SPREADS Crush margins remain strong trading to 1.08c/bu while oilshare corrects a bit trading back below 32 percent to 31.79 percent. Bull-spreads ar...
AM Outlook - Afloat Over Last Week's Lows
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to congest in recent ranges with last week's lows holding so far. Technically speaking, the downside trends were...
Market Commentary
Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U...
A New Normal for U.S.-China Trade?
The modern U.S.-China trade relationship has always been strained. President George W. Bush addressed this challenge by bringing China into the WTO to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.125/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Power of Agriculture; China Unforced Error; African Hope
Power of Agriculture In the 2016 presidential campaign, Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) won a plurality but not a majority of Iowa Republican votes after saying...
Focus on New Products/Markets
Brazil has the largest fleet of cars converted to use the highest blends of ethanol, and the government is reportedly debating whether to remove duties on...
PM Post - Larger Break Ahead
THE OPEN November beans: 1 3/4 higher December meal: 1.60 lower December soyoil: 22 higher December corn: 2 3/4 lower...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS A feed protein production facility is going to be established in Saudi Arabia. It is reportedly intende...
Technical Views - Watch Corn
SPREADS October crush firm at 1.06c/bu while oilshare trends lower down to 32.11%. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn spread firms to 1/4c from 3/4c carry after trad...
AM Outlook - Profit Taking on Both Sides
GOOD MORNING, The main feature on Monday was that after a weaker start, Ags held together fairly well. Today is therefore important to see if it shor...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.15/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.92/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
Congress on Recess, but Work Continues on USMCA
Congress is on its annual August recess, so not much policy making will be underway on Capitol Hill. However, there will be plenty of suggestions generated...
Market Commentary
Reversal is the CBOT’s word of the day. Grain markets started out weaker overnight as concerns about the trade war with China deepened. Over the week...
Forget GMOs, It's Chemophobia
American food marketers view Europe as a biotechnology backwater, paranoid about GMOs and a lost cause on the topic. However, there are worse aspects to th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans The market changed quickly last week after President Trump tweeted that the U.S. would impose an additional 10 percent tariff on $300 billion wort...
PM Post - Robbed of Weather Premium
THE OPEN November beans: 11 lower December meal: 3.10 lower December soyoil: 35 lower December corn: 8 lower December...
Reshaping Markets
The renminbi fell below 7 to the U.S. dollar this past Friday, and that raises the risk of at least two possible developments: 1) the exodus of money out o...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s sea port grain exports for the week ending 2 August 2019 increased to 1.09 MMT from 861 TMT the prior week. Corn exports incr...
Technical Views - Best Trend is Oilshare
SPREADS Crush margins improve with October trading to 1.10c/bu while oilshare continues to firm at 32.37%. Meal prices continue to trend downward vs...
AM Outlook - Macro Selling Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower this morning, but the weakness is noted across the board for equities and commodity prices entering a macro day of across-th...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cent...
Tariff Impacts Not Unilateral
Tariffs are effectively a tax, but many partisans are overstating their impact. Frequently, the pundits are saying the tariffs being imposed on China only...
Late Planting and Yields
In the rush of the current bear market, some are now predicting that yields may exceed USDA’s early estimates. These forecasts are met with some incr...
EU-U.S. Deal on Beef
This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.9075/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. N...
PM Post - First Week August Weather is Critical
THE OPEN November beans: 3 3/4 higher December meal: .60 higher December soyoil: 21 higher December corn: 3 1/2 higher Decem...
Technical Views - Testing the New Lows
SPREADS October crush trades top 1.06c/bu while oilshare trades to 31.94 percent. Traders continue to buy soyoil/sell meal. Dec19/D...
AM Outlook - Recovery Day
GOOD MORNING, The markets were in adjustment mode yesterday to the downside and fell sharply after Trump's announcements about more possible tariffs starti...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t...
New Tariffs on China; More ASF
Proof that the trade talks in China did not yield the progress that was expected or hoped for, President Trump announced via twitter today (see below) that...
Orange Man Bad; Scaled Subsidies; Wrong Tomato Lane
Orange Man Bad President Donald Trump tweeted today that next month he would impose 10 percent duties on the remaining $300 billion worth of goods imported...
Supply Bulls, Demand Bears
Current grain and soy futures markets remind us of two old market clichés. The first is, “bears make money, bulls make money, but hogs get sla...
Oilseed Highlights: China Inspects Argentine Soy Crush Plants; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Egypt’s Vegoil Tender
China to Inspect Argentine Soy Crush Plants The Argentine agriculture secretary’s chief of staff has indicated a Chinese delegation will begin a visi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.&n...
Breaking News: Trump to Impose Additional Tariffs on Chinese Goods
From Reuters: *DJ Trump to Impose Additional 10% Tariff on Chinese Goods Trump to Impose Additional 10% Tariff on Chinese Goods on Sept. 1 * Tr...
PM Post - New Shorts meet Liquidating Longs
THE OPEN Beans: 1 1/2 lower Meal: 1.50 lower Soyoil: 13 higher Corn: steady Wheat: 7 lower The major features o...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 383,100 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 42 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. &...
Technical Views - Lower and Sideways
SPREADS October crush trades higher at 1.04c/bu while oilshare is steady/better at 31.84 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 10 1/4c to 10 3/4c, clos...
AM Outlook - Major Reversal Coming
GOOD MORNING, The lack of significant heat across the US and a perceived break-down in Chinese/US trade talks combined to create long liquidation in corn a...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positio...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 July 2019 Domestic prices decreased more slowly in regions where there was movement from old crop to new harvest grain and gre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.8725/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
War into 2021; Trade Untruths
War into 2021 The Vietnam War lasted 17 years and four months, and the war in Afghanistan now exceeds that length. The U.S.–China trade war is not ex...
PM Post - Aggressive Selling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 6 lower Dec meal: 1.30 lower Dec soyoil: 18 lower Dec corn: 3 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 5 l...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Again on Lower Output With demand continuing to falter, crushing activity has remained limited with utilization rates belo...
Technical Views - Good Chance We Go There
SPREADS October crush trades at 1.01c/bu while oilshare remains a fairly steady 31.86%. Corn spreads are generally weaker with the Dec 19/Dec 2...
AM Outlook - Stand Back and Sell
GOOD MORNING, End-of-month profit-taking, non-threatening weather, low exports, and negative rhetoric for the trade negotiations combined to send pri...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets s...
No Government Shutdown This Year
In a rare display of compromise (if not bipartisanship), the Trump administration and Congress reached a two-year budget deal. The plan lays out a top line...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.9725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Reading China; Bully Strategy
Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect pos...
PM Post - Bear Markets Embrace Bearish News
THE OPEN November beans: 6 1/2 lower December meal: 2.80 lower December soyoil: 1 lower December corn: 4 1/2 lower December...
Late, Wet Equals Impacts
WPI’s Crop Progress and Conditions App provides visual snapshots of the latest USDA data on this year’s rain-delayed plantings. The pictures ar...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s SAGO has advised that the pre-qualified flour mill bidders will finish their due d...
Ag Review - July 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the outlook for the 2019/20 U.S. crop mar...
Technical Views - Important Signals at the Open
SPREADS Sep crush firms to 97c/bu while oilshare values push towards 32% with a trade at 31.95% this morning. Corn spreads are weaker with Dec...
AM Outlook - Returning to Lows Eventually Breaks Them
GOOD MORNING, Better than expected crop ratings and non-threatening weather continues to weigh on prices as they move back and forth in choppy trade. ...
Market Commentary
CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below av...
Ethanol Use up Slightly, But Not Enough
The EPA published the 2020 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for ethanol and biodiesel in today’s Federal Register, an unusually long lag after publ...
Worse than Trump; Trump Fights Self-Designation; Mixed Views on Payments; U.S. Debt Risk
Worse than Trump President Trump chided that China may intentionally slow down bilateral trade negotiations until after the 2020 U.S. election, suggesting...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.27/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.035/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. N...
Russia as Soybean Competitor
Russia’s area planted to its five major crops has expanded 23 percent since 2012. Soybeans have gained the most over the past decade, absorbing 37 pe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The market was nearly dead last week with little demand but many sellers and China taking only a few September vessels from Brazil. There w...
PM Post - No Reason for Late Day Price Breaks
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 higher Dec meal: .80 higher Dec soyoil: 3 higher Dec corn: 3 higher Dec wheat: 3 1/4 higher A...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News China approved wheat and soybean imports from Russia’s Kurgan region, according to an official Chinese statement made on Friday. China...
Technical Views - The Same or Lower
SPREADS Sep crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare is higher again at 31.82%. The Dec/Dec corn inverse trades down to 8c from 11 3/4c. Se...
AM Outlook - Firmer on Trade Talks
GOOD MORNING, Prices begin the week on a firm tone after pressure over the last several weeks resulted in a test of trading range lows. This morning's dire...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weathe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.245/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.96/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
EU-Mercosur Wreck; No Indian Epiphany
EU-Mercosur Wreck EU leaders proudly announced a trade agreement with the Mercosur group of countries last month, but that is now in political jeopardy. En...
MFP Round Two Announced
As expected, USDA announced the second round of Market Facilitation Payments (MFPs) yesterday. They are more generous than expected and can reach up to $15...
Economy Needs Fuel
Growth is slowing in the major economies (see survey graph below), and stimulus is needed to move back into a higher gear. The European Central Bank change...
PM Post - Good Weather - No Exports
THE OPEN November beans: 1 higher December meal: .20 higher December soyoil: steady December corn: 1 1/2 lower September whe...
Technical Views - Sept Wheat Big Open Interest
SPREADS Sep crush firms back to 98c/bu while oilshare eases off its monthly highs to trade to 31.78 percent. September contract liquidation con...
AM Outlook - Oil Losing to Meal
GOOD MORNING, It was a disappointing close for the bulls yesterday as prices closed defensively for most. Good weather and a lower export pace...
Market Commentary
Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectat...
Expectations for 2019/20
The U.S. and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere are in the midst of the growing season for grain and oilseed crops, and we intently follow weather models...
Transatlantic Crossing; Brexit Wreck
Transatlantic Crossing EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström painted a pretty bleak picture of transatlantic relations before the European Parliamen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.995/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S.-China Trade Update; Monsoonal Effect on India’s Soy Crop; U.S. Soy Sales
Hope for Breakthrough in Next Week’s U.S.–China Negotiations It is now confirmed that USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will meet...
PM Post - MaPiToBa
THE OPEN November beans: 2 1/2 higher December meal: .30 lower December soyoil: 20 higher December corn: 1 lower Septe...
Hog and Cattle Market Cues from Cold Storage
USDA’s monthly Cold Storage report was released on Monday, and it showed the 30 June red meat and poultry inventory at 2.392 billion pounds, 97.2 per...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 659,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 90 percent from the previous week and 74 percent from the prior 4-week average. &n...
Technical Views - Looking for Follow Through
SPREADS Sep crush falls to 93c/bu while oilshare continues to advance upward to new monthly highs of 31.76 percent. Dec/March corn widens out t...
AM Post - Trade Talk Optimism
GOOD MORNING, Price action continues in trading range territory with the bean market well bid from $9.00 on the back of more optimism as regards trade talk...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw notably firmer prices with corn up 4 ¼ cents, soybeans up 5 ½ cents ,and SRW wheat up 8 cents. Forecasts for another he...
Good USMCA Vibes; Real Battle over Fake Meat
Good USMCA Vibes The chief deputy Democratic whip in the U.S. House of Representatives, Henry Cuellar (Texas), said that Congress will pass the USMCA this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.9775/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...
PM Post - Buy Oil/Sell Meal = Day's Best Feature
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 1/4 higher Dec meal: .60 higher Dec soyoil: 23 higher Dec corn: 3 higher Sep wheat: ...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Big Live Hog Price Increase As expected, the June survey of major hog producers in China reveals that the live pig price has begun to take off.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-19 July 2019 Domestic grain prices decreased sharply as more regions switched to 2019 yield prices. Only corn prices managed to e...
Technical Views - Strong September Wheat
SPREADS Sep wheat/corn spreads finished the day at contract lows Tuesday, indicating further weakness could be ahead. This morning, Sep wheat/c...
AM Outlook - Where There's Smoke, There's Fire
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to monitor the pace of demand, weather, and the overall production possibilities for the Corn Belt. However, it wa...
MFP Payments and Policy Round Up
Now that a budget agreement has been struck that will avoid another government shutdown, Congress will be in session for three more days before the August...
USMCA’s Timid Opposition; India’s Gift to Trump; Warren’s Gamble with Opponents
USMCA’s Timid Opposition A coalition of 600 business groups wrote a letter urging the U.S. Congress to quickly pass the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.8725/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. No...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading featured extended weakness in the soy complex while wheat and corn managed small gains. Yesterday’s fund selling pushed markets tow...
Heat of 2019; the Future
Markets are still trying to figure out the impact of 2019 weather on crop production and historical references only make it partially easier. Prices in the...
PM Post - Weaker Wheat; No Caution in Corn
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 1/4 lower Dec meal: 1.90 lower Dec soyoil: 18 higher Dec corn: 1 higher Sep wheat: 1 1/4 higher The mar...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The latest USDA-FAS report on Turkey says that very dry weather could reduce the wheat and barley produ...
Technical Views - History of Failure
SPREADS Sep crush firms to 95c/bu from 92c/bu yesterday with a bounce in oilshare up to 31.19%. Dec/March corn trades from 8 1/4c to 8 3/4c, while th...
AM Outlook - Get Out
GOOD MORNING, Improved weather patterns dominate price direction as grain longs liquidate in front of the USDA report. Weakest performance for the da...
Murphy’s Law for Corn
Murphy’s Law (i.e., anything that can go wrong will go wrong) has been in full force for corn farmers this year. Floods, cold weather and high soil m...
New Players, Same Song
U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland said last week that the new EU leadership under Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made him op...
Market Commentary
Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.8725/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina FOB replacement levels are still at 40Q, and the local market has a few offers of about 50,000 MT/day. One cargo traded FOB at 34Q for A...
Freight Ignores Geopolitics
Iran is seizing foreign-flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. is shooting down drones in the region. Analysts say that Tehran is intentiona...
PM Post: Markets Getting Toppy
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 1/2 lower Dec meal: 0.60 lower Dec soyoil: steady Dec corn: 6 lower Sep wheat: 2 1/2 lower ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional News 819,000 MT of grain were exported from Ukrainian seaports during 13-19 July 2019, up sharply from 499,000 MT the previous week and mostly des...
Technical Views - Open in Red
SPREADS Corn spreads have firmed with Sep/Dec corn trading into 8c from 8 1/2c. The Dec/Dec corn inverse is weaker, however, trading from 17 1/2c dow...
AM Outlook - Corn Vulnerable
GOOD MORNING, Prices ended on an upbeat note Friday on rumors of Chinese bean buying out of South America along with stories of low protein Brazilian beans...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 ce...
Ho-Hum Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports
Two key cattle reports came out this afternoon after the market close, but there won’t be much excitement generated from either. The monthly Cattle o...
Feeding the World
The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In th...
Attack on Institutions; EU CAP Divisions; Transatlantic Similarities on Refugees; Biden Farm Policy
Attack on Institutions Donald Trump campaigned in 2016 against the institutions of government and called for “draining the swamp.” Now his oppo...
Cattle on Feed
United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent at 11.5 million head on July 1, 2019. The inventory was 2 percent above July 1, 2018. This is the highe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.3575/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. N...
PM Post - Technical Covering Following a Bearish Week
THE OPEN November beans: 9 3/4 higher December meal: 2.40 higher December soyoil: 13 higher December corn: 2 1/2 higher September...
Realistic Expectations
China’s economic growth and now the trade war have rewritten the demand scenario much as the Black Sea region has rewritten the supply side. The Russ...
Technical Views - Contraseasonal Due to Weather
SPREADS Sep crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare weakens to 30.95%. Corn spreads are slightly wider with Dec/March trading out to 8 1/2c while Sep/D...
AM Outlook: Healthy Dose of Housecleaning
GOOD MORNING, Topping formations and slightly improved forecasts for next week shook the weaker corn bull out this week on a healthy dose of housecleaning...
Livestock Roundup: Losing Count of Chinese Pigs; Cattle on Feed Preview
Losing Count of Chinese Pigs Yesterday China announced a new African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Sichuan Province, bringing the total now reported to mor...
Trump Policy Gets Support; Friends and Neighbors
Trump Policy Gets Support Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is in Washington this week and told an Atlantic Council audience that instead of fighting the Tru...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Higher Brazil Freight Rates; EU Rapeseed; India’s Monsoon Issue
Not Much Improvement in U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 11 July was another challenging on...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&n...
Risk-off Day
THE OPEN: Nov beans: 3 3/4 lower Dec meal: 1.10 lower Dec soyoil: 2 higher Dec corn: 7 lower Sep wheat: 6 3/4 lower A...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 347,300 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 22 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Co...
Watching Nov Beans and Sep Wheat
SPREADS Sep crush is firmer at 98c/bu while oilshare firms back over 30% to trade to 31.10% as meal dips against a firmer soyoil market. Corn spreads...
Weather Makes it Weaker
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower as more organized rainfall hits key growing areas across Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, and Iowa. Heavy showers...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat fu...
USMCA Hope; ERS/NIFA Solution
USMCA Hope House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Massachusetts) reportedly said that congressional Democrats do not want to delay a vote...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 July 2019 The downward trend in domestic prices continued for the most part. However, the average milling wheat (12.5 percent p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.055/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
Basic Explanation of Current Technical Markets
Bottom Line: Markets are technically sideways until there is new information to guide them. It is fairly interesting that if you pop up a bean, wheat, or c...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends Monthly Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years With China’s annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate fal...
Choppy, Sloppy and Thin
THE OPEN: November beans: 4 1/2 higher December meal: 1.40 higher December soyoil: 17 higher December corn: &nb...
Technical Wonder Day
SPREADS Sep crush trades firmer at 97c/bu while oilshare firms to 31.25%. Buy soyoil/sell meal trade continues. Dec/Dec corn inverse trad...
So Low, Nowhere to Go but Up
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to work into trading range territory, with current precipitation taking us down towards trading range lows encouraged by the...
A Guess at MFP Per Acre Payments
The Office of Management Budget reported yesterday that its review of the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) trade mitigation payments is finished. However,...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was als...
Race to Fix Labor
U.S. agriculture utilized a quarter-million temporary migrant workers last year under the H-2A agricultural guest worker program, and it was still far from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.4125/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.075/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close...
What Crop to Grow?
Farmers mostly want to grow what is easy and profitable. Excluding government payments, all the major crops have turned negative for U.S. farmers in terms...
Weeks to Gain, Two Days to Lose
THE OPEN: November beans: 12 lower December meal: 4.20 lower December soyoil: 20 lower December corn: 8 l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has advised that fuel prices will be reviewed every three months after recent increases of up to...
How the Day Trades
SPREADS Sep crush trades at 95.55c/bu while oilshare firms further to 31.27%. Dec/March corn trades out to 7 1/2c from 6 3/4c while the Dec/Dec inver...
Effects from Improvement
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower this morning as more rains spread across the Midwest. Good rains moved through Wisconsin and Minnesota overnight, with...
Market Commentary
The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pen...
Barriers and Ag’s Future; Plurilateral Future
Barriers and Ag’s Future The Greens and other liberal groups in Europe have aligned their sights on turning European agriculture into a chemical-free...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian market was almost entirely dead last week with Chinese buyers sidelined and not bidding on any position. Their absence...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&...
Smaller and Smaller Crops
The market adage that “big crops grow bigger” means that forecasts typically start out conservative, and a season that starts well typically en...
Welcome and Unwelcome Biodiesel Policies Are Moving, Albeit Slowly
Two major policy issues for biodiesel are on the docket: 1) a review of the countervailing duties (CVDs) on biodiesel imports from Argentina, and 2) the re...
Down Today, up Tomorrow?
THE OPEN Nov beans: 6 lower Dec meal: 1.10 lower Dec soyoil: 2 lower Dec corn: 2 1/2 lower Sep wheat: 6 lower Th...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat prices are mixed across Europe and the Black Sea today as the market continues to react to the WASDE report. French prices are slightly...
Sideways but Watching the Heat
SPREADS Sep crush is weaker this morning at 93c/bu while oilshare firms to 31 percent. The Dec/Dec corn inverse trades from 41 3/4c down to 33 1/2c,...
This Week: A Run at Previous Highs
GOOD MORNING, The markets posted new highs in the recent rally with gap-higher technical action that found some interested sellers and gap-closure. N...
The Fed’s Upcoming Decision: To Cut or Not to Cut?
The Federal Reserve looks poised to cut interest rates - or does it? This depends upon whether you consider what the Fed says it looks at – inflation...
Charting a New Course; Economic Wake
Charting a New Course Former Vice President and now Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said this week that President Trump’s trade war tarif...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day ses...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.5925/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.23/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
More Upside than Downside
Cow/calf operations in the southern Plains and across the U.S. are facing sharply negative production margins. WPI’s latest research suggests the ave...
Technicals are in Control
THE OPEN: Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 1.40 higher Dec soyoil: 16 lower Dec corn: 5 higher Sep wheat: 1...
Sideways and Testing New Highs
SPREADS Sep crush is lower again today, trading down to 95c/bu while oil trends weaker as well, trading down to 30.95 percent. The Dec/Dec cor...
Surprises Bring the Most Bang
GOOD MORNING, The WASDE’s major takeaway: we have less wheat supply around the world than we previously thought. This kicked off a short-covering ral...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 284,400 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year 2019/2020. Corn: Net sales of 505,400 MT for 2...
The Long View
Grain traders from commodity fund managers to the big multinational agribusinesses have consistently complained about the lack of profitable trading opport...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA Notes: Global oilseed exports for 2019/20 are projected at 175.0 million tons, down slightly from last month. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA Notes: Beginning stocks are reduced with higher 2018/19 residual use more than offsetting lower crush and seed use. Residual use for 2018/19 is...
Market Commentary
The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Notes: Soybean production for 2019/20 is projected at 3.845 billion bushels, down 305 million based on lower planted and harvested area in the June 28...
Livestock Roundup: ASF and Turkey; Hog Expansion Not Slowing
ASF and Turkey Turkey prices have been in a relative tailspin for two years. Wholesale hen prices started dropping in mid-2017 from about $1/pound and reac...
WASDE Corn
USDA Notes: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production and beginning stocks, greater feed and residual use, lower food, seed, an...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, larger exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies ar...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.215/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Soy Highlights; U.S. Soy Export Sales
Soy-Related Changes in USDA WASDE Report USDA somewhat surprised market analysts today by reducing the forecast for U.S. soybean production in 2019 by more...
The PM Post - WASDE Neutral Corn, Bearish Soy and Wheat
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 lower Dec meal: .90 lower Dec soyoil: 4 lower Dec corn: 4 3/4 lower Sep wheat: 3 1/4 lower Prices opened as expected with further c...
Retaliation Against China; Retaliation Against Europe; SOE Concerns
Retaliation Against China The market rumor is that China is inquiring about U.S. soybeans, and it better be or else. President Trump and economic advisor L...
QUICK HIT - July WASDE Report
JULY WASDE Yield: unchanged for corn, and slightly lower for beans bean yield: 48.5 bpa, generally as expected, maybe a bit higher corn yield: ...
Rumors are Swirling
SPREADS Sep crush is lower trading down to 96c/bu, new lows for the move down after prices had stabilized at 1.00c/bu. Oilshare sits at 31.11%. ...
AM Outlook - CBOT to Open Weaker
Overnight trends once again feature a slightly firmer soy complex versus mixed corn values. Funds purchased the board yesterday and appear ready to get lon...
QUICK HIT - Analysts' Estimates for 11 July WASDE
CHICAGO--The following are analysts' estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Jo...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, so...
Drab WTO Reforms; Precaution or Patents
Drab WTO Reforms The U.S. has motivated other major WTO members to seek reforms for the organization, and the latest list of proposals reveals how moribund...
Summary of Futures
Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 19 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 July 2019 Domestic prices mostly continued to drop as there were increasingly more offers and bids for 2019 production and fewer...
Mostly Higher Open
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 higherDec meal: .50 higherDec soyoil: 25 higherDec corn: 1/4 lowerSep wheat:&...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs for Fifth Straight Week With feed demand continuing to soften as more previously unidentified African swine fever (ASF) c...
New Product Launch, Temporary Website Downtime
Today, WPI will proudly launch a new report, Technical Perspectives, in cooperation with Lefcourt Commodities Forecasting. The new report will feature tech...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s t...
Can’t Beat Beet Molasses
Molasses left over from the processing of beets for sugar is typically the poor cousin to the molasses that results from making sugar from sugarcane. Cane-...