WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The projection for global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 was lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 mill...
WASDE Wheat Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for unchanged U.S. wheat exports of 850 million bushels. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price of wheat is reduced by $0.05 per bushel to $5.55.World trade is 1.7 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Bye Bye Black Sheep
New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, which is no longer an economically supportive coproduct. Wool is less needed in a warming world with many man-made alternative fibers, and lan...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Coercion Beholder; Down Under’s Demands
Coercion Beholder U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart famously said in a 1964 case that he could not define hard core pornography “But I know it when I see it.” The G-7 called for an end to boycotts of purchasing Japanese farm products, calling it a form of coercion. Meanwhile...
Market Commentary: End of Week Reshuffle
The only certainty of the past week is that soymeal is going stratospheric. But corn, soybeans, and wheat took a breather today. For the week: December corn gained 0.456 percent December soymeal rose 8.69 percent November soybeans gained 1.71 percent December soyoil lost 1.82...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Market Commentary: More Rains Wash Away Weather Premium
Over the past three weeks, one has been unable to discuss ag commodity futures without a detailed discussion of U.S. weather patterns, and that remained true on Wednesday. The CBOT was sharply lower as rains fell across the U.S. Plains and Eastern Corn Belt and offered broad coverage and meanin...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s projection for U.S wheat in the current 2023/24 season is total U.S. wheat production of 1,665 million bushels. This is a production level that is similar to the prior 2022/23 season's production of 1,650 and similar to the 2021/22 level of 1,646 million bushels. U.S. ending...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is reduced stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area. However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Okl...
Volatile Wheat Suppliers
The FAS attache in Canberra expects Australia’s wheat production to fall by 25 percent in 2023/24. This follows three years of record sized crops. Lower prices and drier conditions are the cause. Of the six major wheat exporters, Australia has the highest variation in its production and e...
Australian Barley Rebound
Australia announced that an agreement had been reached with China that will end the latter’s punitive tariffs on barley from Down Under. For its part, China said it is willing to work with Australia to normalize relations. In May 2020, China imposed tariffs of 80.5 percent on Australian b...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Cure for High Prices
Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to China are up 158 percent. These sales have occured despite Chinese restrictions on many other Australian farm products. Trade ministers from...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. Wo...
ANZ Split; Labor Key to PA
Anz Split The Australia-New Zealand relationship is very tight, with both nations freely trading with one another and generally sharing positions on foreign policy. However, China has created a bit of an ANZ split. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong visited China on the 50th anniversary of...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. domestic wheat data is unchanged from last month. The global wheat supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australia production. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Selloff Intensifies; Aussie Wheat Crop Gets Bigger
Monday offered little reprieve from the CBOT’s recent trends with the selloffs in soyoil and wheat intensifying. Funds were net sellers in both markets, but for different reasons. In soyoil, the EPA’s latest renewable fuel volume mandates are, at least for now, perceived as bearish...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Prices Continue Bullish
Live cattle negotiated prices in the south hit $155/cwt this week, while in the north they reached $157, and still some sellers held out for more. Negotiated dressed prices averaged $245/cwt. Slaughter last week was down due to the Thanksgiving holiday but was still higher than the...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all-wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bus...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for slightly lower ending stocks of global wheat. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low. Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production mor...
Down Under Limits
Major wheat exporters have a tremendous opportunity if they can take their advantage. India was thought to be in the catbird seat. Production was going to be up 1.6 percent but the exportabe surplus would be up 200 percent, until it wasn’t. Dry heat shrunk the crop and now there are expor...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...
Reprieve on Emissions Data; IPEF Launch; GMO Wheat
Reprieve on Emissions Data At the request of U.S. farm groups, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the deadline for public comments on its proposed rule, “The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate Related Disclosures for Investors.” The Commission wants pu...
China Tensions and Trade
Using trade as a bullying tool did not start and end with Donald Trump. Most recently, Russia’s Vladimir Putin limited food exports to so-called “friendly” countries. Starting in 2020 when Australia called for an investigation into COVID’s origin, Beijing began an effort...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA reduced U.S. exports by 15 million bushels, to 785 million, as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 678 million but are still 20 percent lower than last year. The projected sea...
Market Commentary: Definitively Lower
The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...
Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE
USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” changes, and that is an apt description. This report involved a few tweaks, but nothing that reflected all of the jockeying in the market ahea...
Market Commentary: Omicron Correction
It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indications that this version of the virus is not deadlier, that it may even follow the evolutionary trend of viruses getting weaker over time, and...
Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)
“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...
Aussie Wheat Importance
Although Australia produces less than 5 percent of global wheat output, it is typically the world’s fourth largest exporter. Due to its tendency toward drought, production can be variable but still correlates over time to global wheat ending stocks. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural a...
Market Commentary: Weak Energies Weigh on Soy Complex; Wheat Ignores Bearish Technicals
Continued declines in energy markets pressured the CBOT on Friday and reduced fund buying interest. Soyoil futures fell lower and to near trading range support on weaker energy markets and pulled soybeans lower as well. Wheat futures were higher as traders pointed to strong demand as reason to...
WASDE Wheat
The November WASDE projected U.S. wheat ending stocks at 583 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 3 million from the October forecast. The projected 2021/22 season-average U.S. farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.90. Global wheat ending stocks are down 1.4 million...
Beef: Where East Meets West
Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U.S. It has also resulted in a drawdown in the regions surplus stocks. Complicating the supply situation has been drought in Australia, an at...
Market Commentary: CBOT Correction Continues; Cash Wheat Strong Despite Futures’ Decline
The CBOT ended the week on a down note with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all posting losses for the day. Corn and wheat attempted to rally early in the day, but that effort was met with stiff selling pressure and more cash selling from farmers. Harvest activity has increased across the east...
Beer Pressures
Global supply chain issues are pressuring many industries, but beer makers face a complex set of issues. Prices have risen for malt barley, aluminum, labor, and transportation. Already elevated malt prices started rising more in mid-summer when the impact of North American drought conditions be...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite drought in Argentina that came during the early phases of the wheat crop, rains appeared during the critical yield-defining periods and boosted yield potential. Consequently, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased its crop estimate from 19.2 to 19.8 MMT for MY 2021/22. Almost...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies to End Strong Week; Hogs Rally while Cattle Fall
Corn and wheat futures were higher again on Friday, but volume was waning as funds slowed their buying pace. The soy complex saw continued but mild strength as exports remain a headwind for soybeans and meal. This week’s market action saw surprising strength due to demand-side factors (no...
Notable TFP Changes
U.S. Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack and EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be on the stage together next week at the Forum for the Future of Agriculture & Farm Europe. Mr. Vilsack has taken the position that increasing productivity is the pathway to sustainability...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission reported that the favorable weather conditions across most of Europe “allowed farmers to make good progress” harvesting 2021 summer crops and planting 2022 winter crops. The Commission increased its forecast of summer crop yields, with the 2021...
AM Outlook - Trends Intact
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened close to home, higher for soy with some light profit-taking in wheat. All markets are higher heading into the close led by wheat. Minneapolis wheat trades into contract highs, and oats have traded into all-time record highs. Matif wheat made n...
Double Exposure; New Old Era
Double Exposure In a concept paper yesterday at the WTO, the U.S. outlined its lessons from the pandemic in terms of a more resilient planet. Notably missing from the report was any mention of the TRIPS agreement hindering vaccinations against disease. The reason for its absence is the mounting...
Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad
Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President of the Almond Board Alliance of California. Her prior experience includes serving as Deputy Secretary and Assistant Secretary at the Califor...
Future Industry Impacts; Minimum Wage and Farm Labor
Future Industry Impacts The push toward shorter supply chains and plant-based food products will have perverse impacts on the food marketing industry. For example, eating local runs directly counter to the use of geographic indicators, which seeks to protect and promote the sale of food in non-...
Value versus Value-added in Grapes
The EU is the largest maker of wine, followed by the U.S., whereas China may be the largest producer of table grapes but its production of wine in any quantity is a relative recent phenomenon. Meanwhile, the EU’s wine production has been dropping. India is the second largest producer of g...
Consolidation’s Diminishing Returns
While countries like Brazil and Ukraine are trying to consolidate farmland in order to gain efficiencies, Australia has always had some of the largest farms in the world. However, consolidation reached a peak in 2010 and the consolidation curve has flattened or even slightly declined. Lik...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the new 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop is for higher production. All wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels to 180 million on the higher supplies as wheat is expected to be priced competitively w...
Update on Cyber Attack on Meat
This morning we posted an alert on the cyber-attack on JBS IT infrastructure in North America and Australia. The attack happened over the weekend and the company reported the incident to the White House and USDA. The U.S. government is operating under the assumption that this was similar to the...
Cyber Security: New Commodity Market Risk?
Just three weeks after the Colonial Pipeline that supplies about 45 percent of the gasoline to the U.S. East Coast was hit by cyber hackers, the largest meat packer in the world was hit by a cyber-attack over the weekend. Coincidence? Or have hackers gained an appreciation for the chaos that ca...
AM Outlook - Soy Complex Gains on Grains
NOTE: Technical Perspectives from WPI will not be published on May 28, 2021. Good morning - Prices traded higher overnight led by soyoil, which stabilized bean trade. Soybean bull spreads are working again, finding support after Monday's selloff. Morning trends feature beans gai...
Uncertain Values
British farmers are upset that their government may give access to the UK market to beef from Australia. They argue that they are not competitive against their Aussie peers. The relative competitiveness is difficult to understand based on public data. Based on dated numbers from the FAO, Brazil...
Reliability versus Value in Beef
Argentina’s restriction on beef exports to control domestic inflation and political upheaval could raise issues over reliability as a supplier. However, Russia has proven that wheat importing countries care more about value (quality and price) than they do about reliability of specific su...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The initial outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are projected down 3 percent from 2020/21 on lower carry-in stocks offsetting higher production and imports. All wheat production is proj...
Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook
It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a $272/cwt average last week, which was up about $20/cwt from the week prior. Part of that rally is demand, and part is supply. March beef pr...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Self-Punishment; Easy Solution; Back to the Flame
Self-Punishment China has made its punitive 200 percent tariff on Australian wines permanent for the next five years. The tariff is not import protection for nascent Chinese winemakers but political punishment imposed on Canberra. However, it is concurrently punishment imposed on Chinese consum...
Risk of Precaution; Challenging Poor Governance
Risk of Precaution Several European countries stopped vaccinations with AstraZeneca’s product out of an abundance of caution that it was causing blood clots in some recipients. The EU’s medicines regulator now says there is little risk (EMA data shows a 0.0006% rate of blood clots f...
More to Burn, Less Trade
As the border carbon tax idea picks up steam it leads to all kinds of possibilities for expanding use of border measures to extract policy changes. One target being discussed is the treatment of women, but they could be expanded to policy measures that distort trade, such as labor laws, tax pol...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for U.S. supply and demand outlook is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel. Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate. Au...
Wheat Volatility
ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...
Market Commentary: Commercial Buying Lifts CBOT; Corn, Soybeans Try to Forge Sideways Ranges
Friday’s selloff at the CBOT found aggressive end-user and commercial pricing activity on Monday. Markets traded lower overnight but triggered notable buying action as prices hit key support levels. The subsequent rally in the day session left the market with the feeling that near-term lo...
Beef with Beef Prices
The cost of beef around the world is highly variable. While the average for 97 countries is $11.40/pound for a kilo of top round or back leg equivalent, it will cost $55.58 in Switzerland and just $3.68 in Pakistan. That makes Switzerland 15 times more expensive to get a steak. Of course, it is...
WASDE Wheat
The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.70 per bushel. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stoc...
All/Any Trade Agreements; He’s Back!; Helping Hurts
All/Any Trade Agreements University of Sydney sociologist and foreign policy columnist Salvatore Babones calls the recently agreed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), “a China-style trade agreement: platitudinous and ineffective.” Aussies do not have a lot of warm fe...
WASDE Wheat
November 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks. Domestic use is raised, primarily on higher food use, which is increased 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019/20. This increase is based m...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Score Technical Win; Profit Taking Pressures Grains
The CBOT opened higher but found profit taking and farm cash/hedging sales that pushed markets off the day’s highs. The soy complex was once again the upside leader with soyoil and soybeans being the strongest legs of the crush. Buy soy/sell wheat or corn spread trades were also active to...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday on Shrinking Corn, Soybean Yields
Election day is here for the U.S. and both CBOT and macro markets seemed to take encouragement from that fact. The dollar moved sharply lower on election uncertainty and the movement of some cash parked internationally back to U.S. bank accounts. The weaker dollar helped support the CBOT and ot...
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises; Big is Better; Eating American
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises If the polls are correct, Joe Biden is elected president tomorrow and the question is what changes besides civility? Looking at his campaign promises potentially impacting agriculture there is a lot of repetition from the past, a past that was mostly different...
CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments
CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be. Delegations are split with some wanting to increase the mandatory level of 2nd Pillar support for eco-schemes to 40 percent, and boo...
Friday Intrigue
Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. In response, Beijing agreed to a lopsided trade deal in favor of the U.S. China had a $345 billion trade surplus with America last year. By c...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks: U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels because of lower beginning stocks and reduced production - as indicated in the Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports. (The G...
European Market Analysis
Regional News More favorable weather patterns have developed over Europe and western Ukraine in recent weeks. Last week saw widespread rainfall across the UK, western and central Europe, and western Ukraine. Parts of northern Germany and southeast Romania and Bulgaria missed these rains,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Barley Argentina’s final barley planted area is between 850,000 and 900,000 hectares, down 1 million from 2019. Assuming all goes well this growing season, production should be near 3.5 MMT. Fields in the core area are suffering from a lack of rain and this may dampen final yi...
Rational Trade Dependence; Better Examples
Rational Trade Dependence Global trade has begun to rebound but there remains a great deal of misunderstanding about its economic role. President Donald Trump has spent his time in office decrying American dependence on what he perceives as imbalanced terms of trade. Australia may now believe t...
Thoughts from the August WASDE
Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report. Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
How Big is Big?
One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes. Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...
Malt Prices Rising
The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...
Market Commentary
Markets are being whipsawed as concerns about the economy apply downward pressure as seen in the last overnight session and then buoyed somewhat this morning by the Export Sales report. Let’s start with the economy. It suffered a huge contraction due to COVID-19. Everyone knew that before...
The Pandemic, the Economy and Demand
The Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting ended yesterday. No one expects the Fed to change its stance on record low interest rates or to ease up on its buying of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities as a means of pumping money into the economy. The minutes of this week’s F...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks. Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...
The Price Ain’t Right; Food Standards Fraud; Opportunity Strikes
The Price Ain’t Right German Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner thinks the problem is inexpensive meat. She told Reuters that, “Meat is too cheap. Lurid advertising with low prices for meat does not fit with appreciation and sustainability…This is no longer acceptable.&rdqu...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about. Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...
Competitiveness of Wheat Exporters
Price and export market share should be correlated. In other words, lower cost producers should be able to expand their sales while higher cost sellers should see a decline in exports. With wheat, that may not be true. However, just looking at the farmgate value of wheat in the top exporting na...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1,877 million bushels. Total domestic supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million bushels. World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. India’s c...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Changes in USDA WASDE Report; Soy Export Sales; Argentine Takeover of Vicentin
Today’s USDA WASDE report did not include any major unexpected changes in the supply and demand situation for the soy sector. U.S. soybean exports in 2019/20 were reduced, but U.S. soybean crush was increased as were U.S. soyoil exports. Overall, the report was relatively neutral to sligh...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was broadly lower on Tuesday as good crop conditions across the U.S. and surprisingly large Brazilian crop forecasts pressured the markets. Cattle futures defied the bearish trend and close higher. Funds started selling grains at the open, triggering sell-stops in soybeans and soymeal...
Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics
Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...
Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform
Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...
Let Them Have Meat
Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...
Market Commentary
The day started and ended as called with Chicago wheat and the livestock complex in the green while corn and soybeans went under water. Wheat remains the play with substantial volume trying to get in even as there was substantial volume working against soybeans. With a three-day holiday weekend...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shipped in two 40,000 MT lots in May and July. This is part of the UN food aid program. Financial experts are forecasting a 2020 drop in the va...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Estimates - U.S. wheat in 2020/21 will have reduced stocks. The 2020/21 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,866 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year as lower yields offsett higher harvested acreage. The all-wheat yield is projected at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bus...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with short covering that lifted corn and soybeans higher early in the day. Firmer crude oil prices were supportive initially. Row crops ended up trading both sides of unchanged but finished slightly higher ahead of First Notice day tomorrow. Wheat was the bigger story of the day...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was higher overnight on short covering and what looked to be the start of a Turnaround Tuesday. The day session, however, featured aggressive fund selling in row crops that eliminated any hope for a turnaround. Wheat futures managed to find some support off yesterday’s Crop Condi...
Comfortable and Safe; Adjusting Risk-Benefit; Miscellany
Comfortable and Safe Food processors are reporting brisk sales of their processed products. Nestlé’s Hot Pockets are selling lot hot cakes; Nielsen reports that canned soup sales are up 37 percent, canned meat rose 60 percent and frozen pizza is up 51 percent. Products that were mo...
Market Commentary
The biggest news of the day is the fact that May crude oil futures traded to negative prices, posting a daily low of negative $40.34 (-$40.32) before settling slightly higher. U.S. crude oil storage capacity is basically nonexistent right now, helping create the price weakness and today’s...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s wheat outlook – is for lower U.S. exports, reduced domestic use, and increased ending stocks. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 31, implied less feed and residual disappearance for both the second and third quarters than previously estimated. U.S. wheat e...
Market Commentary
There were several reasons to be bearish today and not much countering the mood. USDA’s Outlook released this morning framed the year ahead as fundamentally stable and an improvement over 2019. It will be for wheat with prices forecast to increase 8 percent and soybeans with a 1 percent r...
Livestock Roundup
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 February at 102.4 percent of last year. If accurate, at about 11.85 million head, that would be the largest Feb...
Agriculture/Environment Nexus; Europe Follows U.S.
Agriculture/Environment Nexus EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides told the European Parliament this week that pesticide and fertilizer use will be reduced to respond to “citizen concerns,” which is not a good indicator of science-based standards. Meanwhile, French farmers are u...
Market Commentary
Overnight news that Australia’s 2019/20 wheat crop will be smaller than expected set the stage for a sharp rally in the CBOT wheat markets. Morning calls were for wheat to open higher and pull corn along with it, which is exactly what happened. Few, if any, analysts, however, expected whe...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports that the only change for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is a 25 million bushel increase in exports reflecting growing competitiveness in international markets. Ending stocks are cut by a corresponding amount and are now forecast to total 940 million bushels, a five-year low. ...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets finished the week mostly higher with short covering in corn and soymeal spilling over to other markets. Vice President Pence noted today that China is committed to making its utmost effort to fulfill its Phase One agreements, a fact which brought comfort to the ag markets. End user...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with a weaker tone and kept that mentality through the day. Soyoil firmed against soymeal and soybeans while corn and soybeans traded mostly lower in tandem. Wheat and livestock futures fell back as well amid uncertainty about China’s commodity “shopping list”...
Livestock Round-Up
Cattle Market to Tighten in 2020 Going into 2020, the beef cattle inventory is likely to be down. The cattle inventory data will be released by USDA on 31 January, but based on 2019 trends, it is likely to be down from the herd as of January 2019, which, at 94.8 million head was slightly larger...
Last Laugh; Mediation over Arbitration
Last Laugh The actual language of the announced phase one agreement between the U.S. and China remains unknown but a reported commitment to boosting imports of American farm products could (speculatively) have notable side effects on infrastructure. The first involves grain handling capacity, t...
WASDE Wheat
Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Wheat estimates: U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 975 million. Hard Red Winter and Durum exports are each raised 10 million bushels, and HRS is raised 5 million. With reduced supplies and higher use, 2019/20 ending stocks are...
Livestock Round Up
Considering China Situation Impact Hog producers are awaiting a breakthrough in prices while packers’ margins remain high. The promise of increased exports has not made its way to the hog market – at least not yet. So, what is the outlook? The situation is the reverse from bac...
Doubt About China’s Pork Renaissance
The Chinese government says it wants to restore domestic pork production to its prior glory, but history sheds doubt on its prospects. As noted previously, ASF has had a demonstrably larger impact on China than did BSE on Europe, and yet EU beef production and consumption have never fully recov...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s purchases of farmlands in Australia is causing considerable national concern. According to Australian information, about 13 percent of all farmland is foreign owned. One problem that has come to light is that there seems t...
Market Commentary
The CBOT featured early firming in the grains complex with nothing but lower prices for the soy complex. Early buy corn/sell soybeans spread trade set the course for lower soy products trade while wheat spent the day drifting lower. The weekly Export Inspections report showed the influenc...
USMCA Reckoning; Make My Brown Eyes Green; Not Such Free Traders
USMCA Reckoning USTR Robert Lighthizer and his Canadian and Mexican counterparts are meeting today to discuss the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Lighthizer will likely give a brief on the final demands by Democrats before allowing Congressional consideration of the trade pact. Key will be the la...
WIC to SNAP Lessons; Cheese Mountains; Spillover Subsidies
WIC to SNAP Lessons According to data published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in its weekly Morbidity and Mortality Report, obesity amongst 2-4-year old’s dropped significantly following USDA changes in the types of food and beverages subsidized under the Suppleme...
China versus USMCA; Global MRL’s
China versus USMCA The U.S. Congressional calendar is tight and Trump trade negotiators only have so much band width. This is leading some in the Washington trade community to speculate that the White House will emphasize USMCA passage in the next few weeks. President Trump has backed away from...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Estimates: U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks. Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million bushels, based on updated production estimates for the States resurveyed following the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30. ...
Wheat Over-Supported
Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that Russia’s production may be off a bit. Wheat prices have been firming on the board as a result. Still, global stocks are large. The st...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Reports: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced total use, and rising ending stocks. Wheat production is cut 18.5 million bushels to 1,962 million based on the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 30. Projected imports are...
WASDE Wheat
USDA wheat estimates: 2019/20 U.S. wheat supply and demand is unchanged. The season-average farm price down 20 cents to $4.80 per bushel the marketing year (MY). Global wheat prices are expected to be restrained for the rest of the MY. The global outlook for wheat this month is for lower suppli...
Drought Shifting Consumption
Southeast Asia has experienced droughty conditions the past several months and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia/Pacific region says it is part of a longer-term meteorological trend. The change is most adversely impacting rice production and will likely benefit whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...
EU-U.S. Deal on Beef
This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as the “high quality beef” (HQB) quota. The deal is close to the terms agreed to in principle back in March. The U.S. will get 35,0...
Reading China; Bully Strategy
Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect positively for one American demand – addressing the issue of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The government said that it will pursue supp...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, larger exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are reduced as a smaller carry-in is not completely offset by higher production. Forecast 2019/20 U.S. wheat production is raised 18 mil...
Hazards of Forecasting
Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecasters. The market’s reaction to changes in supply and demand are far fickler than the models can assume. Their ten-year forecast in 2008...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
No Growth Out of Bear Market
Historically, the keys to getting out of bear commodity markets have been economic growth and production cuts in response to low prices. Rising grain and oilseed stocks from the 1997 Asian financial crisis began to subside as the recovery in world gross domestic product (GDP) growth boosted dem...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Reported: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production. Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased 2018/19 exports. Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million with an i...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The projection for global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 was lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 mill...
WASDE Wheat Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for unchanged U.S. wheat exports of 850 million bushels. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price of wheat is reduced by $0.05 per bushel to $5.55.World trade is 1.7 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Bye Bye Black Sheep
New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, which is no longer an economically supportive coproduct. Wool is less needed in a warming world with many man-made alternative fibers, and lan...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks, raised 0.6 million, to tons...
Coercion Beholder; Down Under’s Demands
Coercion Beholder U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart famously said in a 1964 case that he could not define hard core pornography “But I know it when I see it.” The G-7 called for an end to boycotts of purchasing Japanese farm products, calling it a form of coercion. Meanwhile...
Market Commentary: End of Week Reshuffle
The only certainty of the past week is that soymeal is going stratospheric. But corn, soybeans, and wheat took a breather today. For the week: December corn gained 0.456 percent December soymeal rose 8.69 percent November soybeans gained 1.71 percent December soyoil lost 1.82...
WASDE Wheat
USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower st...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Market Commentary: More Rains Wash Away Weather Premium
Over the past three weeks, one has been unable to discuss ag commodity futures without a detailed discussion of U.S. weather patterns, and that remained true on Wednesday. The CBOT was sharply lower as rains fell across the U.S. Plains and Eastern Corn Belt and offered broad coverage and meanin...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s projection for U.S wheat in the current 2023/24 season is total U.S. wheat production of 1,665 million bushels. This is a production level that is similar to the prior 2022/23 season's production of 1,650 and similar to the 2021/22 level of 1,646 million bushels. U.S. ending...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is reduced stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area. However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Okl...
Volatile Wheat Suppliers
The FAS attache in Canberra expects Australia’s wheat production to fall by 25 percent in 2023/24. This follows three years of record sized crops. Lower prices and drier conditions are the cause. Of the six major wheat exporters, Australia has the highest variation in its production and e...
Australian Barley Rebound
Australia announced that an agreement had been reached with China that will end the latter’s punitive tariffs on barley from Down Under. For its part, China said it is willing to work with Australia to normalize relations. In May 2020, China imposed tariffs of 80.5 percent on Australian b...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Cure for High Prices
Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to China are up 158 percent. These sales have occured despite Chinese restrictions on many other Australian farm products. Trade ministers from...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. Wo...
ANZ Split; Labor Key to PA
Anz Split The Australia-New Zealand relationship is very tight, with both nations freely trading with one another and generally sharing positions on foreign policy. However, China has created a bit of an ANZ split. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong visited China on the 50th anniversary of...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. domestic wheat data is unchanged from last month. The global wheat supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australia production. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Selloff Intensifies; Aussie Wheat Crop Gets Bigger
Monday offered little reprieve from the CBOT’s recent trends with the selloffs in soyoil and wheat intensifying. Funds were net sellers in both markets, but for different reasons. In soyoil, the EPA’s latest renewable fuel volume mandates are, at least for now, perceived as bearish...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Prices Continue Bullish
Live cattle negotiated prices in the south hit $155/cwt this week, while in the north they reached $157, and still some sellers held out for more. Negotiated dressed prices averaged $245/cwt. Slaughter last week was down due to the Thanksgiving holiday but was still higher than the...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all-wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bus...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for slightly lower ending stocks of global wheat. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low. Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production mor...
Down Under Limits
Major wheat exporters have a tremendous opportunity if they can take their advantage. India was thought to be in the catbird seat. Production was going to be up 1.6 percent but the exportabe surplus would be up 200 percent, until it wasn’t. Dry heat shrunk the crop and now there are expor...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...
Reprieve on Emissions Data; IPEF Launch; GMO Wheat
Reprieve on Emissions Data At the request of U.S. farm groups, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the deadline for public comments on its proposed rule, “The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate Related Disclosures for Investors.” The Commission wants pu...
China Tensions and Trade
Using trade as a bullying tool did not start and end with Donald Trump. Most recently, Russia’s Vladimir Putin limited food exports to so-called “friendly” countries. Starting in 2020 when Australia called for an investigation into COVID’s origin, Beijing began an effort...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA reduced U.S. exports by 15 million bushels, to 785 million, as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 678 million but are still 20 percent lower than last year. The projected sea...
Market Commentary: Definitively Lower
The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...
Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE
USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” changes, and that is an apt description. This report involved a few tweaks, but nothing that reflected all of the jockeying in the market ahea...
Market Commentary: Omicron Correction
It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indications that this version of the virus is not deadlier, that it may even follow the evolutionary trend of viruses getting weaker over time, and...
Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)
“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...
Aussie Wheat Importance
Although Australia produces less than 5 percent of global wheat output, it is typically the world’s fourth largest exporter. Due to its tendency toward drought, production can be variable but still correlates over time to global wheat ending stocks. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural a...
Market Commentary: Weak Energies Weigh on Soy Complex; Wheat Ignores Bearish Technicals
Continued declines in energy markets pressured the CBOT on Friday and reduced fund buying interest. Soyoil futures fell lower and to near trading range support on weaker energy markets and pulled soybeans lower as well. Wheat futures were higher as traders pointed to strong demand as reason to...
WASDE Wheat
The November WASDE projected U.S. wheat ending stocks at 583 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 3 million from the October forecast. The projected 2021/22 season-average U.S. farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.90. Global wheat ending stocks are down 1.4 million...
Beef: Where East Meets West
Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U.S. It has also resulted in a drawdown in the regions surplus stocks. Complicating the supply situation has been drought in Australia, an at...
Market Commentary: CBOT Correction Continues; Cash Wheat Strong Despite Futures’ Decline
The CBOT ended the week on a down note with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all posting losses for the day. Corn and wheat attempted to rally early in the day, but that effort was met with stiff selling pressure and more cash selling from farmers. Harvest activity has increased across the east...
Beer Pressures
Global supply chain issues are pressuring many industries, but beer makers face a complex set of issues. Prices have risen for malt barley, aluminum, labor, and transportation. Already elevated malt prices started rising more in mid-summer when the impact of North American drought conditions be...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite drought in Argentina that came during the early phases of the wheat crop, rains appeared during the critical yield-defining periods and boosted yield potential. Consequently, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased its crop estimate from 19.2 to 19.8 MMT for MY 2021/22. Almost...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies to End Strong Week; Hogs Rally while Cattle Fall
Corn and wheat futures were higher again on Friday, but volume was waning as funds slowed their buying pace. The soy complex saw continued but mild strength as exports remain a headwind for soybeans and meal. This week’s market action saw surprising strength due to demand-side factors (no...
Notable TFP Changes
U.S. Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack and EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be on the stage together next week at the Forum for the Future of Agriculture & Farm Europe. Mr. Vilsack has taken the position that increasing productivity is the pathway to sustainability...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission reported that the favorable weather conditions across most of Europe “allowed farmers to make good progress” harvesting 2021 summer crops and planting 2022 winter crops. The Commission increased its forecast of summer crop yields, with the 2021...
AM Outlook - Trends Intact
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened close to home, higher for soy with some light profit-taking in wheat. All markets are higher heading into the close led by wheat. Minneapolis wheat trades into contract highs, and oats have traded into all-time record highs. Matif wheat made n...
Double Exposure; New Old Era
Double Exposure In a concept paper yesterday at the WTO, the U.S. outlined its lessons from the pandemic in terms of a more resilient planet. Notably missing from the report was any mention of the TRIPS agreement hindering vaccinations against disease. The reason for its absence is the mounting...
Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad
Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President of the Almond Board Alliance of California. Her prior experience includes serving as Deputy Secretary and Assistant Secretary at the Califor...
Future Industry Impacts; Minimum Wage and Farm Labor
Future Industry Impacts The push toward shorter supply chains and plant-based food products will have perverse impacts on the food marketing industry. For example, eating local runs directly counter to the use of geographic indicators, which seeks to protect and promote the sale of food in non-...
Value versus Value-added in Grapes
The EU is the largest maker of wine, followed by the U.S., whereas China may be the largest producer of table grapes but its production of wine in any quantity is a relative recent phenomenon. Meanwhile, the EU’s wine production has been dropping. India is the second largest producer of g...
Consolidation’s Diminishing Returns
While countries like Brazil and Ukraine are trying to consolidate farmland in order to gain efficiencies, Australia has always had some of the largest farms in the world. However, consolidation reached a peak in 2010 and the consolidation curve has flattened or even slightly declined. Lik...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the new 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop is for higher production. All wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels to 180 million on the higher supplies as wheat is expected to be priced competitively w...
Update on Cyber Attack on Meat
This morning we posted an alert on the cyber-attack on JBS IT infrastructure in North America and Australia. The attack happened over the weekend and the company reported the incident to the White House and USDA. The U.S. government is operating under the assumption that this was similar to the...
Cyber Security: New Commodity Market Risk?
Just three weeks after the Colonial Pipeline that supplies about 45 percent of the gasoline to the U.S. East Coast was hit by cyber hackers, the largest meat packer in the world was hit by a cyber-attack over the weekend. Coincidence? Or have hackers gained an appreciation for the chaos that ca...
AM Outlook - Soy Complex Gains on Grains
NOTE: Technical Perspectives from WPI will not be published on May 28, 2021. Good morning - Prices traded higher overnight led by soyoil, which stabilized bean trade. Soybean bull spreads are working again, finding support after Monday's selloff. Morning trends feature beans gai...
Uncertain Values
British farmers are upset that their government may give access to the UK market to beef from Australia. They argue that they are not competitive against their Aussie peers. The relative competitiveness is difficult to understand based on public data. Based on dated numbers from the FAO, Brazil...
Reliability versus Value in Beef
Argentina’s restriction on beef exports to control domestic inflation and political upheaval could raise issues over reliability as a supplier. However, Russia has proven that wheat importing countries care more about value (quality and price) than they do about reliability of specific su...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The initial outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are projected down 3 percent from 2020/21 on lower carry-in stocks offsetting higher production and imports. All wheat production is proj...
Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook
It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a $272/cwt average last week, which was up about $20/cwt from the week prior. Part of that rally is demand, and part is supply. March beef pr...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Self-Punishment; Easy Solution; Back to the Flame
Self-Punishment China has made its punitive 200 percent tariff on Australian wines permanent for the next five years. The tariff is not import protection for nascent Chinese winemakers but political punishment imposed on Canberra. However, it is concurrently punishment imposed on Chinese consum...
Risk of Precaution; Challenging Poor Governance
Risk of Precaution Several European countries stopped vaccinations with AstraZeneca’s product out of an abundance of caution that it was causing blood clots in some recipients. The EU’s medicines regulator now says there is little risk (EMA data shows a 0.0006% rate of blood clots f...
More to Burn, Less Trade
As the border carbon tax idea picks up steam it leads to all kinds of possibilities for expanding use of border measures to extract policy changes. One target being discussed is the treatment of women, but they could be expanded to policy measures that distort trade, such as labor laws, tax pol...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for U.S. supply and demand outlook is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel. Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate. Au...
Wheat Volatility
ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...
Market Commentary: Commercial Buying Lifts CBOT; Corn, Soybeans Try to Forge Sideways Ranges
Friday’s selloff at the CBOT found aggressive end-user and commercial pricing activity on Monday. Markets traded lower overnight but triggered notable buying action as prices hit key support levels. The subsequent rally in the day session left the market with the feeling that near-term lo...
Beef with Beef Prices
The cost of beef around the world is highly variable. While the average for 97 countries is $11.40/pound for a kilo of top round or back leg equivalent, it will cost $55.58 in Switzerland and just $3.68 in Pakistan. That makes Switzerland 15 times more expensive to get a steak. Of course, it is...
WASDE Wheat
The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.70 per bushel. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stoc...
All/Any Trade Agreements; He’s Back!; Helping Hurts
All/Any Trade Agreements University of Sydney sociologist and foreign policy columnist Salvatore Babones calls the recently agreed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), “a China-style trade agreement: platitudinous and ineffective.” Aussies do not have a lot of warm fe...
WASDE Wheat
November 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks. Domestic use is raised, primarily on higher food use, which is increased 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019/20. This increase is based m...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Score Technical Win; Profit Taking Pressures Grains
The CBOT opened higher but found profit taking and farm cash/hedging sales that pushed markets off the day’s highs. The soy complex was once again the upside leader with soyoil and soybeans being the strongest legs of the crush. Buy soy/sell wheat or corn spread trades were also active to...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday on Shrinking Corn, Soybean Yields
Election day is here for the U.S. and both CBOT and macro markets seemed to take encouragement from that fact. The dollar moved sharply lower on election uncertainty and the movement of some cash parked internationally back to U.S. bank accounts. The weaker dollar helped support the CBOT and ot...
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises; Big is Better; Eating American
Unseriousness of Campaign Promises If the polls are correct, Joe Biden is elected president tomorrow and the question is what changes besides civility? Looking at his campaign promises potentially impacting agriculture there is a lot of repetition from the past, a past that was mostly different...
CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments
CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be. Delegations are split with some wanting to increase the mandatory level of 2nd Pillar support for eco-schemes to 40 percent, and boo...
Friday Intrigue
Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. In response, Beijing agreed to a lopsided trade deal in favor of the U.S. China had a $345 billion trade surplus with America last year. By c...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks: U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels because of lower beginning stocks and reduced production - as indicated in the Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports. (The G...
European Market Analysis
Regional News More favorable weather patterns have developed over Europe and western Ukraine in recent weeks. Last week saw widespread rainfall across the UK, western and central Europe, and western Ukraine. Parts of northern Germany and southeast Romania and Bulgaria missed these rains,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Barley Argentina’s final barley planted area is between 850,000 and 900,000 hectares, down 1 million from 2019. Assuming all goes well this growing season, production should be near 3.5 MMT. Fields in the core area are suffering from a lack of rain and this may dampen final yi...
Rational Trade Dependence; Better Examples
Rational Trade Dependence Global trade has begun to rebound but there remains a great deal of misunderstanding about its economic role. President Donald Trump has spent his time in office decrying American dependence on what he perceives as imbalanced terms of trade. Australia may now believe t...
Thoughts from the August WASDE
Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report. Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...
Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend
The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...
How Big is Big?
One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes. Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...
Malt Prices Rising
The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...
Market Commentary
Markets are being whipsawed as concerns about the economy apply downward pressure as seen in the last overnight session and then buoyed somewhat this morning by the Export Sales report. Let’s start with the economy. It suffered a huge contraction due to COVID-19. Everyone knew that before...
The Pandemic, the Economy and Demand
The Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting ended yesterday. No one expects the Fed to change its stance on record low interest rates or to ease up on its buying of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities as a means of pumping money into the economy. The minutes of this week’s F...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks. Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...
The Price Ain’t Right; Food Standards Fraud; Opportunity Strikes
The Price Ain’t Right German Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner thinks the problem is inexpensive meat. She told Reuters that, “Meat is too cheap. Lurid advertising with low prices for meat does not fit with appreciation and sustainability…This is no longer acceptable.&rdqu...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about. Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...
Competitiveness of Wheat Exporters
Price and export market share should be correlated. In other words, lower cost producers should be able to expand their sales while higher cost sellers should see a decline in exports. With wheat, that may not be true. However, just looking at the farmgate value of wheat in the top exporting na...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1,877 million bushels. Total domestic supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million bushels. World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. India’s c...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Changes in USDA WASDE Report; Soy Export Sales; Argentine Takeover of Vicentin
Today’s USDA WASDE report did not include any major unexpected changes in the supply and demand situation for the soy sector. U.S. soybean exports in 2019/20 were reduced, but U.S. soybean crush was increased as were U.S. soyoil exports. Overall, the report was relatively neutral to sligh...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was broadly lower on Tuesday as good crop conditions across the U.S. and surprisingly large Brazilian crop forecasts pressured the markets. Cattle futures defied the bearish trend and close higher. Funds started selling grains at the open, triggering sell-stops in soybeans and soymeal...
Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics
Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...
Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform
Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...
Let Them Have Meat
Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...
Market Commentary
The day started and ended as called with Chicago wheat and the livestock complex in the green while corn and soybeans went under water. Wheat remains the play with substantial volume trying to get in even as there was substantial volume working against soybeans. With a three-day holiday weekend...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shipped in two 40,000 MT lots in May and July. This is part of the UN food aid program. Financial experts are forecasting a 2020 drop in the va...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Estimates - U.S. wheat in 2020/21 will have reduced stocks. The 2020/21 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,866 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year as lower yields offsett higher harvested acreage. The all-wheat yield is projected at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bus...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with short covering that lifted corn and soybeans higher early in the day. Firmer crude oil prices were supportive initially. Row crops ended up trading both sides of unchanged but finished slightly higher ahead of First Notice day tomorrow. Wheat was the bigger story of the day...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was higher overnight on short covering and what looked to be the start of a Turnaround Tuesday. The day session, however, featured aggressive fund selling in row crops that eliminated any hope for a turnaround. Wheat futures managed to find some support off yesterday’s Crop Condi...
Comfortable and Safe; Adjusting Risk-Benefit; Miscellany
Comfortable and Safe Food processors are reporting brisk sales of their processed products. Nestlé’s Hot Pockets are selling lot hot cakes; Nielsen reports that canned soup sales are up 37 percent, canned meat rose 60 percent and frozen pizza is up 51 percent. Products that were mo...
Market Commentary
The biggest news of the day is the fact that May crude oil futures traded to negative prices, posting a daily low of negative $40.34 (-$40.32) before settling slightly higher. U.S. crude oil storage capacity is basically nonexistent right now, helping create the price weakness and today’s...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s wheat outlook – is for lower U.S. exports, reduced domestic use, and increased ending stocks. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 31, implied less feed and residual disappearance for both the second and third quarters than previously estimated. U.S. wheat e...
Market Commentary
There were several reasons to be bearish today and not much countering the mood. USDA’s Outlook released this morning framed the year ahead as fundamentally stable and an improvement over 2019. It will be for wheat with prices forecast to increase 8 percent and soybeans with a 1 percent r...
Livestock Roundup
Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 February at 102.4 percent of last year. If accurate, at about 11.85 million head, that would be the largest Feb...
Agriculture/Environment Nexus; Europe Follows U.S.
Agriculture/Environment Nexus EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides told the European Parliament this week that pesticide and fertilizer use will be reduced to respond to “citizen concerns,” which is not a good indicator of science-based standards. Meanwhile, French farmers are u...
Market Commentary
Overnight news that Australia’s 2019/20 wheat crop will be smaller than expected set the stage for a sharp rally in the CBOT wheat markets. Morning calls were for wheat to open higher and pull corn along with it, which is exactly what happened. Few, if any, analysts, however, expected whe...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports that the only change for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is a 25 million bushel increase in exports reflecting growing competitiveness in international markets. Ending stocks are cut by a corresponding amount and are now forecast to total 940 million bushels, a five-year low. ...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets finished the week mostly higher with short covering in corn and soymeal spilling over to other markets. Vice President Pence noted today that China is committed to making its utmost effort to fulfill its Phase One agreements, a fact which brought comfort to the ag markets. End user...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened with a weaker tone and kept that mentality through the day. Soyoil firmed against soymeal and soybeans while corn and soybeans traded mostly lower in tandem. Wheat and livestock futures fell back as well amid uncertainty about China’s commodity “shopping list”...
Livestock Round-Up
Cattle Market to Tighten in 2020 Going into 2020, the beef cattle inventory is likely to be down. The cattle inventory data will be released by USDA on 31 January, but based on 2019 trends, it is likely to be down from the herd as of January 2019, which, at 94.8 million head was slightly larger...
Last Laugh; Mediation over Arbitration
Last Laugh The actual language of the announced phase one agreement between the U.S. and China remains unknown but a reported commitment to boosting imports of American farm products could (speculatively) have notable side effects on infrastructure. The first involves grain handling capacity, t...
WASDE Wheat
Summary of USDA’s December 2019 Wheat estimates: U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 975 million. Hard Red Winter and Durum exports are each raised 10 million bushels, and HRS is raised 5 million. With reduced supplies and higher use, 2019/20 ending stocks are...
Livestock Round Up
Considering China Situation Impact Hog producers are awaiting a breakthrough in prices while packers’ margins remain high. The promise of increased exports has not made its way to the hog market – at least not yet. So, what is the outlook? The situation is the reverse from bac...
Doubt About China’s Pork Renaissance
The Chinese government says it wants to restore domestic pork production to its prior glory, but history sheds doubt on its prospects. As noted previously, ASF has had a demonstrably larger impact on China than did BSE on Europe, and yet EU beef production and consumption have never fully recov...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Saudi Arabia’s purchases of farmlands in Australia is causing considerable national concern. According to Australian information, about 13 percent of all farmland is foreign owned. One problem that has come to light is that there seems t...
Market Commentary
The CBOT featured early firming in the grains complex with nothing but lower prices for the soy complex. Early buy corn/sell soybeans spread trade set the course for lower soy products trade while wheat spent the day drifting lower. The weekly Export Inspections report showed the influenc...
USMCA Reckoning; Make My Brown Eyes Green; Not Such Free Traders
USMCA Reckoning USTR Robert Lighthizer and his Canadian and Mexican counterparts are meeting today to discuss the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Lighthizer will likely give a brief on the final demands by Democrats before allowing Congressional consideration of the trade pact. Key will be the la...
WIC to SNAP Lessons; Cheese Mountains; Spillover Subsidies
WIC to SNAP Lessons According to data published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in its weekly Morbidity and Mortality Report, obesity amongst 2-4-year old’s dropped significantly following USDA changes in the types of food and beverages subsidized under the Suppleme...
China versus USMCA; Global MRL’s
China versus USMCA The U.S. Congressional calendar is tight and Trump trade negotiators only have so much band width. This is leading some in the Washington trade community to speculate that the White House will emphasize USMCA passage in the next few weeks. President Trump has backed away from...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Estimates: U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks. Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million bushels, based on updated production estimates for the States resurveyed following the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30. ...
Wheat Over-Supported
Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that Russia’s production may be off a bit. Wheat prices have been firming on the board as a result. Still, global stocks are large. The st...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Reports: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced total use, and rising ending stocks. Wheat production is cut 18.5 million bushels to 1,962 million based on the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 30. Projected imports are...
WASDE Wheat
USDA wheat estimates: 2019/20 U.S. wheat supply and demand is unchanged. The season-average farm price down 20 cents to $4.80 per bushel the marketing year (MY). Global wheat prices are expected to be restrained for the rest of the MY. The global outlook for wheat this month is for lower suppli...
Drought Shifting Consumption
Southeast Asia has experienced droughty conditions the past several months and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia/Pacific region says it is part of a longer-term meteorological trend. The change is most adversely impacting rice production and will likely benefit whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reports for August 2019: More U.S. wheat supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food...
EU-U.S. Deal on Beef
This afternoon President Trump and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis announced an agreement regarding the EU’s Hilton quota, commonly referred to as the “high quality beef” (HQB) quota. The deal is close to the terms agreed to in principle back in March. The U.S. will get 35,0...
Reading China; Bully Strategy
Reading China There is little concrete messaging from the U.S.–China trade negotiations this week, but an announcement out of Beijing may reflect positively for one American demand – addressing the issue of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The government said that it will pursue supp...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, larger exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are reduced as a smaller carry-in is not completely offset by higher production. Forecast 2019/20 U.S. wheat production is raised 18 mil...
Hazards of Forecasting
Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecasters. The market’s reaction to changes in supply and demand are far fickler than the models can assume. Their ten-year forecast in 2008...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
No Growth Out of Bear Market
Historically, the keys to getting out of bear commodity markets have been economic growth and production cuts in response to low prices. Rising grain and oilseed stocks from the 1997 Asian financial crisis began to subside as the recovery in world gross domestic product (GDP) growth boosted dem...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Reported: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production. Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased 2018/19 exports. Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million with an i...