Wheat, corn, and soybeans all opened higher, as called, and posted fresh highs for their respective rallies. Only wheat, however, was able to hold gains as...
Articles
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Friday Intrigue
Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. I...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.2525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
World Food Day Perspective
Commodity prices have been on the rise and most of the attention until this week has been on the supply side with worries about weather. In recent days it...
Thinking About the Coming Supply of Brazilian DDGS
Back in 2013, under the U.S. sugar program, sugar refiners and processors were headed toward forfeiting more than 350,000 MT of sugar under loan, which tri...
PM Post - Vertical Inevitably Turns Choppy
THE OPEN January beans: 6 1/2 higher December meal: 1.40 higher December soyoil: 32 higher December corn: 3 1/4 higher December whe...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 528,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were unchanged from the previous week, but up 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.&nb...
Technical Views - Pullbacks will get Bought
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.23c/bu while oilshare trades below 31.0% to new lows of 30.89%. Spreads remain strong with Dec/Dec trading to a 12c in...
AM Outlook - Bulls Roll On
GOOD MORNING, Prices made new highs for meal, corn, and wheat as the bull market rolls on. Corn basis is firm, as are cash markets across the world.&...
Market Commentary: Attracting Outside Capital
There were lots of large worries in the big picture but not so much in agriculture today as it carried on in a mostly bullish affair. The macro markets are...
Livestock Round Up: Fauci Talks Turkey
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has suggested that American’s may have to “bite the b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.0375/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.1825/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Biden Implications to Phase One; Inequitable Compensation; Apples and Oranges
Biden Implications to Phase One At this juncture, China needs soybeans, corn and other products, and the U.S. is currently the lowest cost supplier of some...
Oilseed Highlights: China Soybean Purchases; Renewable Diesel; NOPA Crush; India Soy
China Continues to Buy U.S. Soybeans Because of the Columbus Day holiday on Monday USDA will not issue its weekly export sales report until tomorrow. Howev...
PM Post - Wall Street Red; Chicago Green
THE OPEN November beans: 15 3/4 lower December meal: 2.00 lower December soyoil: 98 lower December corn: 2 lower December wheat: 2...
What a Difference a Year Can Make
In some manner every annual crop cycle is different from its predecessors even if those differences are small enough to fade from memory over time. However...
Technical Views - Lower, except Wheat
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.17/bu while oilshare trades down to 31.24%. Corn spreads continue strong with Dec/Dec now inverting to 4c from 2...
AM Outlook - Mixed on Risk-off
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with all lower except wheat. Nervous longs are exiting soyoil and beans on weak overnight price action.&n...
Goose and the Gander; EU Green Leakage
Goose and the Gander President Donald Trump says he wants to make the U.S. a manufacturing powerhouse no longer dependent on China. Those in agriculture ha...
Argentina DET Trouble
Argentina has used the differential export tax for many years to favor the export of processed soyoil and soymeal over soybeans. The policy supports an ind...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Technical Buying; Hogs Post 9-Month High
The CBOT opened in-line with expectations with continued firmness in corn and soybeans after USDA announced another round of daily export sales. Wheat init...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.965/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Feed Demand Continues to Climb as Hog Industry Recovers According to the latest survey results from China’s National Feed Ind...
PM Post - Carving Out Technical Ranges
THE OPEN November beans: 6 higher December meal: 3.50 higher December soyoil: 4 higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat: ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 - 9 October 2020 Russian domestic market prices for wheat and barley kept growing and corn prices also grew significantly. Export...
Technical Views - Back in Ranges
SPREADS Dec crush trades at 1.10c/bu while oilshare trades at 31.86% as meal gains on soyoil this morning. Dec/March corn firms into 7 1/2c from 8c,...
AM Outlook - Mixed in Favor of Beans/Meal
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed to begin the session with beans and meal higher, lower elsewhere. Rumors continue that China is in the market for bean...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn, Soybeans; La Nina Bullish Wheat
It was a classic Turnaround Tuesday at the CBOT with yesterday’s weakness attracting end user demand. As WPI’s Jody Lefcourt noted earlier toda...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.9125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.94/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
The Legislative Sausage Making of COVID Relief
The on-again, off-again negotiations over the next round of COVID relief entered a new phase this week. The White House offered a compromise $1.8 trillion...
Kiwi Future; Inflation/Future China-U.S.
Kiwi Future New Zealanders go to the polls on 17 October and while the popular Labour Party is expected to easily retain control of the government, agricul...
Worse than Agriculture
The agriculture sector is under strong criticism for its harm to the environment. Multilateral disciplines on agricultural subsidies are considered too wea...
PM Post - Bulls Bounce; Bears Lie Flat
THE OPEN November beans: 5 higher December meal: 1.80 higher December soyoil: 13 higher December corn: 3/4 higher December wheat: 1 1/4 h...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s Consumer Price Index for “urban consumers” is said to have increased 3.8...
Technical Views - Not all Turnaround
SPREADS Dec. crush trades 1.11c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.18% , popping back over the 32.0% level. Dec/Dec corn spreads are still firm trading f...
AM Outlook - Turnaround but Two Sides
GOOD MORNING, Turn-around Tuesday is here on cue, with yesterday's break finding good pricing and buying interest. Good bull markets typically have h...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Lower as Weak Longs Exit; Wheat Survives Profit Taking
Certainty over U.S. production and tentative trade overnight set the stage for long profit taking and a weaker CBOT to start the week. The soy complex sold...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.89/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9425/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...
Chemophobia Will Bite Back; Watching the Hen House; Captive Markets
Chemophobia will Bite Back Chemophobic activists in Europe are demanding that pesticides banned from use in Europe also be prohibited from manufacture and...
CFAP 2 Payments Now Flowing
The second round of the CFAP program – i.e. CFAP 2 – has already begun making payments. WPI provided a summary on how the program was structure...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European weather conditions remain concerning for 2021 winter crops. While eastern Europe and western Ukraine are slated for rains in t...
Wheat-Rice Substitution
In the classic position of a wheat exporting nation, consumers that have traditionally consumed rice as a food grain ultimately become wheat consumers. Thi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Weather conditions continue to work against the Argentine wheat crop. Rains are still absent and soil moisture levels are depleting rapidly. Forty-se...
PM Post - Wheat Defies Profit-taking Elsewhere
THE OPEN November beans: 6 lower December meal: 2.70 lower December soyoil: 3 lower December corn: 1/2 higher December wheat: ...
Technical Views - Bean Weakness
SPREADS Dec. crush trades up to 1.06c/bu while oishare trades to 31.98%. Dec/Dec corn remains firm with prices trading into 1 1/4c from 1 3/4c...
AM Outlook - Back to Weather Watching
GOOD MORNING, The USDA report is out of the way, and the numbers were bullish for beans, and neutral to bullish corn. Wheat found some surprising bea...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybean Supplies Cut; Wheat Falls on Global Stocks
USDA offered a mix of surprises and as-expected numbers in the October WASDE. The agency, as expected, offered lower corn and soybean production figures fo...
WASDE Livestock and Dairy
Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s combined red meat and broiler production forecast down 1.5 percent from 2019, and down 2.8 percent from the March W...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Big on Stimulus; Appropriate Sanction; Real Work Changes
Big on Stimulus As is the raucousness of Donald Trump, he was for an economic stimulus package with the Democrats before he was against it and now is for i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.95/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9375/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 32.5 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
The soybean meal price is forecast at $335.00 per short ton, up $20.00. ...
Toward Virtuous Agriculture
Agriculture is being singled out for its deleterious impacts on the environment. The current popular target is deforestation, largely for its adverse impac...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced ending stocks of U.S. soybeans for the 2020/21 season and decreased global ending stocks: U.S. soybean supplies for 2020/21 are forecast...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced ending stocks of corn for the 2020/21 season and decreased global ending stocks: U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.722 billion bush...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks: U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels...
PM Post - Neutral to Bullish
THE OPEN November beans: 6 3/4 higher December meal: 3.00 higher December soyoil: 69 higher December corn: 4 1/2 higher December wh...
Technical Views - Bullish Ahead of WASDE
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.04c/bu while oilshare is firming to 31.71%. Bull spreads remain firm, with Dec/Dec corn trading into 2 3/4c from 5c, w...
AM Outlook - Day of Truth
GOOD MORNING, Price action has been guided for most of the week by current demand and speculation about today’s October WASDE report. Based on where...
Livestock Round Up: Exports Help Hog Prices
Pork export sales hit a yearly high for the week ending 1 October at 60,200 tons, which was 152 percent of the four-week average. China bought close to hal...
Market Commentary: Drip, Drip, Drip into the Red
The major markets were called higher at the open and that is where they went. Soybeans and soymeal actually hit contract highs today. Wheat was the first t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.87/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.&...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 530,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 5 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. &nb...
Experience versus Korea; Breaking the GMO Boundary
Experience versus Korea The runoff to be the next leader of the WTO is between Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and South Korea’s Yoo Myung-hee. B...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Argentina Export Taxes; Brazilian Dryness
U.S. Soy Export Sales Today’s USDA export sales report once again indicated exporters had great success selling U.S. soybeans in the week ending 1 Oc...
PM Post - All Upward Until Profit-Taking
THE OPEN November Beans: 16 1/4 higher December Meal: 9.40 higher December Soyoil: 14 higher December Corn: 4 higher December Wheat...
Dalian Futures Market Analysis
Monthly Summary September Surge Driven by Soybean Complex, Palm Olein, and Corn With China’s economy rapidly returning to pre-COVID-19 levels in the...
Technical Views - New Highs
SPREADS Bullspreads remain strong along with crush. Dec crush gaps higher top 1.13.39c/bu while oilshare struggles at 31.08%. Dec/Dec corn trad...
Wheat’s New Story
Here is an interesting riddle: With USDA likely to increase its already record large 2020/21 world wheat production estimate a few MMT in Friday’s Oc...
AM Outlook - The Bull's Camp
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trade upward into the report with technical momentum continuing in the bull's camp. All markets except soyoil post n...
China In-Country Analysis
Due to the holiday closures in China this week, China In-Country Analysis will be delayed. ...
Vice Presidential Debate; Chasing Europe on Carbon
Vice Presidential Debate Mike Pence debates challenger Kamala Harris tonight for the right to be vice president over the next four years. Some will be look...
Wheat Less Symmetrical
Cash corn prices in the U.S., Argentina and Brazil tend to move in similar ways, with Argentina showing brief instances of outlier status. However, compar...
Market Commentary: Money Fuels Rally; CBOT Trades Higher Into October WASDE
CBOT markets traded both sides of unchanged overnight but were higher heading into the morning’s open. The day trade saw prices immediately move sha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.8875/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - Sharply Higher Targets
THE OPEN November beans: 9 higher December meal: 3.50 higher December soyoil: 30 higher December corn: 4 higher December wheat:&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 September - 2 October 2020 Domestic Russian market prices for wheat and barley grew significantly, but at a slower rate than the...
Technical Views - Arrows are Up
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.05c/bu while oilshare trades town to 31.58%. Bullspreads are firm, with Dec/Dec corn trading into 7 3/4c from 10...
AM Outlook - Fresh Highs
GOOD MORNING, Bullish chart formations continue to trigger technical fund buying activity. Meal values continue to lead over soyoil, which repr...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Sharply Higher; WPI 2020/21 Outlook
Soybeans and corn led the CBOT higher with fund buying continuing to fuel the bullish fire. Upside breakouts on the soybean, corn, and wheat charts led to...
Gasoline and Ethanol Use Forecast Down for 2021
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its October Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) cutting ethanol, biodiesel, and gasoline use projections...
Pick Your Poison
Given China’s pork shortage and its concurrent sensitivity to imports, some have speculated that pork has been entering the country, or is poised to,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.9275/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Demand Stimulates Bulls
THE OPEN November beans: 14 1/4 higher December meal; 5.50 higher December soyoil: 56 higher December corn: 4 1/4 higher Dece...
AM Outlook - Weather Premium
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly higher led by beans, and a good recovery in soyoil futures. The catalyst for higher trade in beans is the weather, wh...
Technical Views - Upside Pressure
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 99.36c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.18%. Spreads are firmer with Dec/Dec corn narrowing into 11 1/4c from 12 1/4c.&nbs...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Jordan reports wheat stocks on hand of 1.35 MMT – enough, they say, to cover all requir...
Market Commentary: Wheat Continues Drought-Fueled Rally; Pork Market Unseasonably Strong
The CBOT opened as called with bull spreading between grains/soybeans. Wheat was the upside leader as production risks are growing for the Northern Hemisph...
Is the Latest Milk Price Rally the Last for the Year?
After inching their way up last week, Class III milk futures broke $20/cwt and stayed there today. Cheese prices remain strong, but with a big gap in the c...
Winning Pig Production
China is the world’s largest pork producer with output double the size of the second biggest pig maker, the EU. ASF caused the Middle Kingdom’s...
Ballot Initiatives; Coronavirus Money; Middle Kingdom Challenges
Ballot Initiatives Elections in the U.S. bring with them ballot initiatives, either initiated by citizens or the legislatures. This year there are at least...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.795/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.8425/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to suffer from drought from the center of the wheat-growing region to the north of the country. Last wee...
European Market Analysis
Regional News More favorable weather patterns have developed over Europe and western Ukraine in recent weeks. Last week saw widespread rainfall acros...
PM Post - As Called For Now
THE OPEN November beans: 1/4 higher December meal: 1.90 lower Dec soyoil: 40 higher Dec corn: 1 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 10 higher The markets ope...
Technical Views - Higher Except Meal
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 1.02c/bu while oilshare trades below 32.0% to 31.38%. Bull spreads are firmer with Dec/Dec corn trading into 10 1/4c fro...
AM Outlook - Up, Down and Sideways
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with wheat futures setting new highs again this morning while meal corrects to the downside against soyoil.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Wheat Higher on Russian Rumors; Corn, Soybeans Firm on End-User Interest
The CBOT started out weaker but found generally solid buying interest. Traders that were unable to exit shorts/trade the upside move on Wednesday are takin...
Real Bread
By now everyone has read that the Supreme Court in Ireland has ruled that the bread used for Subway sandwich shop sandwiches does not meet the legal defini...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Year for Oats
Oats are mostly a North American crop. Canada produces 72 percent of the world’s oats, and the U.S. imports 67 percent of globally traded oats. Mexic...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7975/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
POTUS COVID; Political Chaos; Bullish Commodity Markets
Every election year has an October surprise; President Trump, as has been well publicized by the media, tested positive for COVID-19 yesterday. Outside mar...
PM Post - Lower But Wanting to be Higher
THE OPEN November beans: 8 lower December meal: 1.40 lower December soyoil: 77 lower December corn: 2 1/4 lower December wheat:&nbs...
Technical Views - Down but with Support
SPREADS Dec. crush trades to 94.41c/bu while oilshare trades to 4 month lows at 31.34%. Spreads are weaker along with flat price, with Dec/Dec corn t...
AM Outlook - Macro Pressure = Buying Opportunity
GOOD MORNING, The Sep. 1 report is out of the way and in its wake is market digestion. After a large rally, prices are lower this morning as we enter...
Market Commentary: An Odd Day
Yesterday’s surprise NASS reduction in stocks continued to reverberate through the market today but now eyes turn toward next week’s USDA WASDE...
Export Taxes; Mutual FTA Unhappiness; Spinning Pigs
Export Taxes Brazil’s Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, is reportedly considering whether to impose a tax on his country’s agricultural ex...
Livestock Round Up: Cash Market Transactions
Earlier this summer, the NCBA unanimously adopted a policy resolution calling for increased cash market transactions. The final details of the program shou...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.8275/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.7025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&...
Oilseed Highlights: Palm Oil Ban; Soy Export Sales; Argentine Export Taxes; Soybean Stocks
U.S. Bans Imports of Crude Palm Oil from Malaysian Company FGV Holdings The U.S. Government yesterday banned imports of crude palm oil from the Malaysian F...
PM Post - Volume
THE OPEN November beans: 4 higher December meal: 3.20 higher December soyoil: 10 lower December corn: 4 higher December wheat: ...
Views from a Prisoner of COVID-19
Efforts to avoid the COVID-19 virus have forced us into what has become many weeks of home bound hibernation. We have plenty of time to ponder the world ar...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 506,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Co...
Technical Views - Driving Higher
SPREADS Dec. crush trade to 96.88c/bu while oilshare falls to 32.44%. Bullspreads are strong with Dec/Dec corn moving into 11c from 13c, and Dec/Marc...
AM Outlook - Sales Supportive
GOOD MORNING, Prices were higher yesterday post report, with follow-through activity this morning. Breaking it all down we find the following:&...
CPTPP Rationale Rises; Airplane Solution
CPTPP Rationale Rises U.S. House Republicans issued a list of 83 actions that should be taken to strengthen the nation’s countermeasures to Chi...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ignites Following Grain Stocks Report
The September Grain Stocks report did not fail to excite, coming in with surprisingly bullish numbers that sent soybeans as much as 41 cents higher. Wheat...
When Price is a Poor Indicator
Few markets are as distorted as those involving agriculture. Governments typically impose higher tariffs on food to support domestic production even when i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.79/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.78/bushel, up $0.285 from yesterday's close. N...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Live Hog and White Feather Broiler Markets Fall Further With China’s National Day holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival kicking off...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 September 2020 Domestic Russian prices for wheat and barley grew sharply, especially in the south. Corn prices mainly...
PM Post - Post Report Adjustments
THE OPEN November beans: 1 lower December meal: .90 lower December soyoil: 30 lower December corn: 1/2 lower December wheat: ...
Technical Views - Affirm or Refute Ranges
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 93.69c/bu while oilshare is 32.79%. Dec/March corn trades weaker from 9-9 1/2c while Dec/Dec trades from 18 1/2c to 19 1/...
AM Outlook - Mixed Ahead of Report
GOOD MORNING. Prices are mixed heading into the report. Wheat prices are higher against the other markets, having the least length. Technically...
Ag Review - September 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue reviews notable changes in agriculture trade, th...
House Tees Up Revised COVID Relief
In May, the House or Representatives passed the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act - the fourth COVID-19 relief package,...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Weaker while Cattle Rally
CBOT products were generally lower as the end of the month approaches and profits are taken off the table. Tomorrow is first notice day for October soymeal...
Battle over Meat; Future of Inflation; EU Agriculture
Battle over Meat COVID-related restrictions have increased meal consumption at home, and it is reported that per capita meat consumption has concurre...
COVID Impacts – Real and Imagined
Researchers have combed the historical literature and warned about the impacts of COVID-19 but not all the predictions have proved accurate. As countries i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&n...
PM Post - Offering Up Values for Tomorrow
THE OPEN November beans: 7 lower December meal: 1.90 lower December soyoil: 52 lower December corn: 3 lower December wheat: 2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA There is a great deal of concern in North Africa about the effect that the second wave of COV...
Technical Views - Lower Direction
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 98.96c/bu while oilshare trades up to 33.0%. Corn spreads are slightly weaker, with Dec/March trading out to 9c from 8 1/...
AM Outlook - Struggling at Temporary Tops
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower this morning as funds remain long across the board and decide to lighten up a bit heading into tomorrow's September 30 stock...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm while Profit Taking Pressures Soy Complex
The CBOT opened as called with profit taking developing in the soy complex and to a lesser extent wheat and corn. The grain markets firmed heading into the...
New Gasoline Octane Standard Proposed for Higher Ethanol Blends
Last week, Representative Cheri Bustos (D-Illinois) introduced the Next Generation Fuels Act. The legislation would establish a new 98 octane standard for...
World Non-Trade Organization; Unsustainable Soya; Disparate State Rules
World Non-Trade Organization The World Trade Organization, emphasis on trade, might be thought of us a forum for reducing tariff and nontariff barriers to...
Changes in Wheat Class Production
As U.S. wheat has become less competitive in global markets, production has been declining. While wheat exports are down 8 percent from their peak, product...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6675/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European consultancy COCERAL issued its latest series of crop forecasts on 25 September. COCERAL left its forecast of the EU wheat crop...
PM Post - Profit-taking and Liquidation
THE OPEN November beans: 1/2 higher December mela: .20 higher December soyoil: 8 lower December corn: 2 1/4 lower December wheat:&n...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Sorghum Argentina’s sorghum planted area and production has steadily fallen since the 2011/12 campaign. The highest planted area was 1.27 Mha, which...
Technical Views - Bouncing within Ranges
SPREADS Dec. crush firms to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.63%. Dec/March corn trades from 8c to 8 1/2c, while Dec/Dec trades from 17 3/...
AM Outlook - Choppy
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with trade on both sides of unchanged. Oilshare had enjoyed an early overnight bounce, but gave it up by...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed, for feedlots over 1,000 head, totaled 11.4 million – which is up 4 percent from September 1, 2019. This is the highest September...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6525/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: CBOT Finds Comfortable Range; Hogs Rally on Bearish Report
The CBOT firmed on Friday as the week-long selloff found support and markets look to be more or less comfortable with their current level. Funds were modes...
Forex Contradictions; Good Consortiums; Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My!
Forex Contradictions President Donald Trump may not understand the complexities of currency valuations, but he knows their importance. His concurrent chast...
Bearish Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released its Cattle on Feed report today and the inventory of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more was 11.4 million head, that is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodit...
PM Post - Fully Corrected for Now
THE OPEN November beans: 3/4 higher December meal: 1.50 lower December soyoil: 14 higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat: 3...
Argentina Cedes on Soymeal
This morning USDA announced a 100 KMT soymeal sale to unknown and it highlights one of the few areas where U.S. market share in bulk commodities has been i...
Technical Views - Between Shorts and Longs
SPREADS Corn spreads remain strong vs. weaker bean spreads. Dec/Dec corn narrows into 18c from 19 3/4, while Dec/March firms to 8c from 8 1/2c. ...
AM Outlook - Is the Bull Market Done
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue mixed this morning. The larger question given the sell-off is whether the bull market is over? Will fu...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Inventory Record; Record September COF Inventory Anticipated
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report this afternoon. The report showed records for the quarter for all hogs and pigs and market pigs. So...
Market Commentary: Loss of Confidence?
Were today’s lower closes in corn and soybeans the market signal of a loss of confidence? Probably not. Volume was down across the board and everythi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.635/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.4975/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Tight Brazil Soybeans; Smaller Argentine Crops
Huge U.S. Soybean Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 17 September indicated exporters sold a huge amount...
One Person’s Poison; Raising the Bar; Cancel Culture Food
One Person’s Poison WTO members questioned plans by Brussels for new subsidies to support organic farming. The EU claims the subsidies to be Green Bo...
PM Post - Wheat Holding Own
THE OPEN November beans: 11 lower December meal: 3.50 lower December soyoil: 63 lower December corn: 3 1/4 lower December wheat:&nb...
What Are Markets Saying?
The price action of modern commodity futures markets reflects the differing needs and opinions of a great many participating traders. Commercial interests...
Technical Views - Continued Lower
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.02c/bu while oilshare falls to 32.05%. Spreads are weaker with Dec/Dec trading out to 20 1/2c from 17 3/4. Dec/Ma...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 351,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 34 percent from the prior 4-week averag...
AM Outlook - Continued Pullback
GOOD MORNING, Prices are now bending under the weight of harvest, nervous longs, and some farmer selling pressure. The stronger US dollar is pe...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Rallies Amid Corn, Soybean Pullbacks
Macro markets continued their “risk-off” trade Wednesday with the U.S. dollar rising 40 bps. That worked against wheat futures with both SRW an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.685/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
How China Could Win U.S. Election
Political analysis indicates that China is hoping Joe Biden wins the U.S. presidential election. His campaign says fully decoupling from China, a frequent...
Pickup in Grain Loadings
Tomorrow’s weekly USDA Export Sales Report is an important measure of the pace of disappearance for U.S. grains, but another is the volume being load...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Hog Sector Driving New Feed Demand According to the China Feed Industry Association, animal feed production climbed by 4.8 percent...
September Cold Storage Report
The attached PDF shows WPI's summary analysis and intrepretation for the latest Cold Storage report, published 22 September 2020 by the USDA. Bri...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 September 2020 Domestic Russian market prices for wheat and barley grew due to the demand created by exporters. Corn prices de...
PM Post - Toppy?
THE OPEN November beans: 2 3/4 lower December meal: 3.70 higher December soyoil: 77 lower December corn: 2 lower December wheat:&nb...
Technical Views - Lower Except Meal
SPREADS Nov crush trades 97.19c/bu while oilshare trades down to 32.74%. Corn spreads are slightly weaker with Dec/Dec trading out to 19 1/4c from 17...
AM Outlook - Demand + Weather = Mixed
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed to begin the day with the major feature of lower oilshare. Meal posts a new contract high against sharply lower soyoil...
Wine Sovereignty; Pick Your Poison
Wine Sovereignty In a three-page joint declaration, fifteen states want flexibility to expand their production and self-sufficiency in wine, beer, and chee...
Market Commentary: Bullish Hog Fundamentals; Wheat Higher on Dry Black Sea Weather
The CBOT opened higher with wheat and soymeal leading the way. Corn followed wheat higher but soon fell back and entered a choppy trading pattern for the d...
U.S. Dairy Demand
The U.S. dairy industry has suffered supply/demand imbalances for decades, but the problem continues to be generated on the supply side of the equation. Wh...
Biodiesel, Soyoil Holding up to COVID Better Than to EU Tariffs
The EU has extended its countervailing duties (CVDs) on U.S. biodiesel which was set to expire this month. The duties were put in place in 2009, renewed in...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6925/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.58/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - Back and Fill in Trading Ranges
THE OPEN November beans: 6 3/4 higher December meal: 4.00 higher December soyoil: 27 lower December corn: 3/4 higher December...
Technical Views - Underpinning
SPREADS Nov crush trades to 87.63c/bu while oilshare trades down to 33.70%. Spreads in nearby corn is slightly firmer trading from 17 1/4c to 20c for...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Algeria’s change in wheat specifications for bug damage should allow Black Sea exporter...
AM Outlook - Inherently Not Weak
GOOD MORNING, Prices traveled into further losses this AM before finding more stability, as each of the markets needed a correction to alleviate overbought...
Market Commentary: CBOT Tests Bulls Amid Macro Risk-Off
The CBOT issued its first real test of bull’s commitment since the present rally started in August. Wheat futures posted a key reversal while corn fu...
Markets are Scary
The government of Narendra Modi is pushing through reforms to make Indian agriculture more market-oriented, but it has become a huge political fight within...
Aid for Agriculture
During the last decade, the total amount of multilateral donations to least-developed countries for agriculture increased by 80 percent. The share of all f...
EPA Moving Down Biofuels’ Policy Checklist
After last week’s EPA announcement on gap year SREs, the agency updated its actions on the SRE waivers, denying more than 50 petitions. There are sti...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6975/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Most of Europe and the Black Sea remain in a rainfall deficit with drought increasingly severe in parts of southeast Europe and western...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat production for the coming campaign is being divided into three regions. The northern end of the country reduced planted area...
PM Post - No Reversal but No Top
THE OPEN November beans: 5 3/4 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 39 lower December corn: 2 1/4 lower December wheat:&...
AM Outlook - Down But Not Out
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the evening mixed but turned lower by morning. Harvest weather over the next two weeks appears to be perfect. Curr...
Technical Views - Lower Day but Higher Trend
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 94.73c/bu while oilshare falls to 33.70%. Nov/Jan beans move out to 4 1/2c from 3 3/4c, while Jan/March inverts to 9 1/4c...
Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire
The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as t...
A Look at Agriculture Funding Three Ways
There are three key pots of money for agriculture support: a second round of CFAP, additional relief for COVID, and the regular budget. One has been settle...
ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act
ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelera...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.75/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
PM Post - Profit-taking
THE OPEN November beans: 9 higher December meal: 3.50 higher December soyoil: 7 higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat: ...
The Daily Onion
Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most impor...
Technical Views - Technically Higher
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 92.15c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.24%. Dec/March corn trades to 8 1/4c from 8 3/4c, while Dec/Dec narrows to 11 1/2c...
AM Outlook - Buying the Open
GOOD MORNING, The charts continue to throw off bullish technical signals, so the funds are buying the open and running with it. The continuing report...
Market Commentary: Gambling on China
The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles...
Post-November Economy; Disparate Fears
Post-November Economy Fiscal recklessness has its limit, and this will come home to roost. Having already borrowed and spent $3 trillion to revive the COVI...
Livestock Round Up: Dairy Market Still Searching for Balance
The final 2019 dairy utilization data from USDA released this week shows that per capita conumption of milk is at an historic high of 650 pounds. Annual d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Oilseed Highlights: Changing China’s Planting Priorities; August Soy Crush Report; U.S. Soy Sales
China Urged to Prioritize Corn, Wheat and Rice Production Over Soybean Production Speakers at this year’s China Soybean Industry International Summit...
PM Post - Still No Reversal
THE OPEN November beans: 2 1/4 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 3 lower December corn: 1 14/ lower December wheat:&n...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 335,700 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average...
Technical Views - Market Support
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 88.99c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.91%. Dec/Dec corn trades from 16 1/2c back out to 18 3/4c. Dec/March corn tra...
AM Outlook - Lower Open on Profit-taking
GOOD MORNING, Prices were stronger with beans rallying higher as more rumors of Chinese business hit the wires. The outlook for China's bean and corn...
More Questions for Grain Markets
Grain and soy futures markets often pose more questions than answers. In terms of trade volume and volatility that is a good thing since it is questions no...
Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle
Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberaliz...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads
The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7175/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Bull Run Continues
THE OPEN November beans: 6 1/2 higher December meal; 3.90 higher December soyoil: 15 higher December corn: 1 higher December...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China Furthers Stimulates Live Hog Production and Risks Grow China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) recently announced an...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 September 2020 Domestic Russian market wheat and barley prices mainly grew due to export demand. Corn prices were stable in the...
Technical Views - Mixed Day
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 89.25c/bu while oilshare trades lower down to 34.66%. Dec/Dec corn trades slightly weaker from 20 1/2c to 22 1/4c, while...
AM Outlook - Good Bull Markets Take Breaks
GOOD MORNING, Funds were net sellers across the board yesterday on overbought concerns and the fact that for once beans could not turn the rally back...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower with Harvest Looming
Now halfway through the month of September, the CBOT is looking like the rally is ending, or at least on pause for a while. Row crops and wheat were lower...
Economy Entering an Inflationary Period
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is meeting today and tomorrow, where it will revise its latest economic forecasts for the year and release its pl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.66/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Revolutionizing EU Agriculture; Squander Leverage/Solicit Good Will
Revolutionizing EU Agriculture The European Public Heath Alliance says agricultural support and promotion should end its focus on competitiveness and inste...
Rice Self-Sufficiency
It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynami...
PM Post - Appropriate Corrections
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 3/4 higher Dec meal: .30 higher Dec soyoil: 40 higher Dec corn: 1 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 4 3/4 lower The...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt intends to have a commodity exchange in place for the first half of 2021. The exchange will t...
Technical Views - Give and Take
SPREADS November crush trades to 74.68c/bu while oilshare is slightly over 35.0% to 35.12%. Dec/Dec corn trades from 19 1/2c to 20 1/2c, while Dec/Ma...
AM Outlook - Still Firm
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to remain well bid with no reversal signals in sight. China continues to be around the market, Black Sea vegoil values...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Again; WPI 2020 S&D; Beef Turning Bullish
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with soybeans and soyoil extending their rallies. Corn and wheat were firmer but posted a relatively lackluste...
Partisan Perspective on Farm Payments
It’s 50 days until the 2020 election. USDA is expected to announce the terms of the second round of CFAP payments this week and the Senate Democrats...
Branstad Departs; Speculatively Correct; Bullish Tractors
Branstad Departs Former Iowa governor and U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad is departing his post in Beijing. Some call it a perilous time to leave g...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.695/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.4575/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Pork Progress
China claims that its pig herd is now down 20 percent from before ASF decimated its stock, but USDA places the country's pork production down 33 percent. P...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat market has become interesting over the past few weeks. At the beginning of September, the core agricultural area received an average of 25...
PM Post - China Buying Undergirds Market
THE OPEN November beans: 6 1/2 higher December meal: .10 higher December soyoil: 59 higher December corn: 3/4 higher December wheat...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Weather patterns across much of Europe and the Black Sea remain lodged in a hot, dry trend causing likely delays and reductions in wint...
Technical Views - Retesting Highs
SPREADS October crush trades to 73.82c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.78%. Spreads are slightly weaker today with Nov/Jan trading out to 3 3/4c from...
AM Outlook - New Highs Beget New Highs
GOOD MORNING, Prices closed on a firm note and extended gains once more overnight as funds now establish long positions across the board. November be...
Market Commentary: WASDE Neutral, Soybeans Rally Anyway; Hogs Explode Higher
The September WASDE failed to offer truly bullish surprises, but you wouldn’t know that from the CBOT’s reaction. The soy complex ended sharply...
SREs; WASDE Livestock; COVID Politics
Reports leaked out of the Administration this week that President Trump has directed EPA to deny all of the so-called gap year small refinery exemption pet...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is 32.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents...
WASDE Soymeal
The soybean meal price is projected at $315 per short ton, up 25 dollars. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans – USDA reduced the estimated yield from 53.3 to 51.9 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks for the 2020/21 season were also reduced. ...
Tough Time for WTO; Dems’ Rural Strategy
Tough Time for WTO Robert Zoellick was U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) before he ran the World Bank and he knows a thing or two about politics and Washing...
WASDE Corn
Corn – USDA reduced U.S. corn ending stocks for 2020/21. The average U.S. yield was reduced from 181.8 to 178.5 bushels per acre. U.S.cor...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.685/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. ...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were r...
USDA Adjusts Stocks
Today’s September WASDE report reflects important adjustments in the projected ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Overall, global stocks of...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 484,400 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 17 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.&...
PM Post - Pullbacks Needed in Most Markets
THE OPEN November beans: 8 higher December meal: 2.80 higher December soyoil: 17 higher December corn: 2 1/4 higher December wheat:...
Technical Views - Rally Ahead of WASDE
SPREADS October crush trades to 63.09c/bu while oilshare sits just under 35.0% at 34.48%. Nov/Jan bean spread firms into 3 12c from 4c as the bull ma...
AM Outlook - Higher Ahead of WASDE
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board this morning as positive technical price action continues and the bull market rolls on. Beans, meal,...
Livestock Round Up: Already Low Hog Prices Moving into Seasonal Low-Price Period
The July monthly export data show both beef and pork down from year-ago levels but up from June. Compared to June, beef exports were up 36 percent in volum...
Market Commentary: Big Bets on Tomorrow
The market is frothy. Tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report could affirm today’s relatively bullish sentiment, or it could break it on fundamentals. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.65/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. ...
Transatlantic Protectionism III; Data Wars; Currency Wars
Transatlantic Protectionism III The EU issued its “Strategic Foresight” report and it lays the groundwork for potentially more protectionism. I...
Oilseed Highlights: Record 2020/21 Soybean Export Sales; China Flooding; Brazil Soybeans
U.S. New Crop Soybean Export Sales Above Pace of 2016/17 As of today, U.S. exporters have reported to USDA the sale of 25.997 MMT of soybeans for export in...
PM Post - Will Report Match Positions?
THE OPEN November beans: 1/2 lower December meal: .30 higher December soyoil: 2 lower December corn: 1 1/2 higher December wheat: 6...
Too Many Market Threads
These days we can sympathize with commercial grain and soy traders and fund managers as they try to figure out what futures prices and cash prices are like...
Technical Views - Higher Ahead of WASDE
SPREADS October crush trades to 72c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.49%. Nov/Jan beans remain firm at 4 1/4c from 4 1/2c, vs. values that were out to...
AM Outlook - Wheat Leads Firmer Market
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mostly firmer with wheat leading the way in terms of market strength, which has allowed corn to trade higher. Report day is...
Vertical Energy; Good News
Vertical Energy Temasek Holdings and Bayer announced an investment in vertical agriculture in Singapore. It should be noted that their focus is on producin...
Market Commentary: Hogs and Soybeans Rally, Grains Consolidate
The CBOT traded a relatively quiet day with corn consolidating and wheat attempting to turn lower before support entered on a break below key moving averag...
Robust China Corn Imports
Some analysts have long argued that Chinese policymakers made a trade-off decision by favoring domestic corn production and soybean imports. Basically, the...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomic Trends Food Inflation Falls in August, Remains Above 10 Percent Following a 2.2 percent increase in July, food prices fell in August to an an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6025/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.4375/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&...
PM Post - Energies Influence
THE OPEN November beans: 3 higher December meal: 2.20 higher December soyoil: 32 lower December corn: 1 1/4 lower December wheat:&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 August – 4 September 2020 Domestic Russian market prices for wheat and barley mainly grew. Corn prices were quoted for the...
Technical Views - Durable Markets
SPREADS October crush trades to 74.71c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.58%. Dec/Dec corn trades from 24 1/2c to 25 3/4c, while Dec/March trades...
AM Outlook - Position Leveling
GOOD MORNING, As we head into Friday's report, expect to see more position-evening from corn and bean bulls who have put a good rally in their pocket. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mostly Higher; WPI 2020 Corn, Soybean Forecasts
The CBOT opened on a mixed note with early selling pressure developing in the soy complex. By the afternoon, however, continued demand corn and soybeans pu...
Faded Green Wave; Better Answer than Decoupling
Faded Green Wave While politicians on both sides of the Atlantic boast of bold plans for environmental protection, executing their initiatives is proving m...
2020 Election and the Next Farm Bill
There are 56 days until the 2020 elections. In addition to the Presidential election, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for consideratio...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.6175/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Share Implications
U.S. agricultural imports have been rising at a 6.42 percent annual rate over the past 25 years. Mostly due to duty-free goods under NAFTA, but also from E...
PM Post - Supportive Sales
THE OPEN November beans: 3 1/2 lower December meal: 2.30 lower December soy oil: 16 higher December corn: 1 1/3 higher December whe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan reports that the second 65,000 MT shipment of wheat has arrived from the Ukraine and...
AM Outlook - Caution on Rallies Ahead of WASDE
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning after several markets traded to technical target highs before encountering profit-taking. The reversal tr...
Technical Views - Mixed
SPREADS Oct. crush trades to 65.40c/bu while oil share trades to 34.79%. Dec/Dec corn trades from 22c out to 26 1/4c, while Dec/March trades from 9 3...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 7 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. As a result, we will not upda...
The Political/Economic Situation at Labor Day
Monday is the U.S. Labor Day holiday – it marks several things, including the nominal end of summer. With the end of summer comes a drop in gasoline...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.58/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms Heading Into Long Weekend
CBOT ag markets were mostly higher as traders added risk premia to corn and soybeans heading into what looks like a dry weekend for the Corn Belt. Wheat fu...
R Realignment with Labor; Eat Mor Chiken
R Realignment with Labor Organized labor has historically aligned with the Democratic Party while Republicans were associated with management. Donald Trump...
Two Ways to Look at Wheat
Less than one month ago, the HRW and HRS leading contracts were at their record lows. The SRW leading contract hit its record low at the start of the marke...
Poor Advice for the Poor; Communism Kills COVID
Poor Advice for the Poor Former South African trade minister Rob Davies had some advice for developing countries that reflects the WTO’s leaderless,...
Market Commentary: Hurry Up and Wait
The uncertainty over yield and demand continues. The crop output side switches to bearish as improved rains are considered, but how much damage has there a...
Livestock Round Up: Ongoing Effects of COVID Meat Packing Shock
USDA released its farm income forecast yesterday reflecting lower prices across the board for livestock and poultry. On the input expense side, purchases...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.5375/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Export Sales; U.S. Soy Export Capacity; Brazil Tariff Backtrack
Soy Export Sales Highlights Last week was a good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans and a fairly good one for soymeal exporters, according to today’s...
PM Post - Getting Out for the Weekend
THE OPEN November beans: 2 higher December meal: steady December soyoil: 29 higher December corn: 1 1/2 lower December wheat: 1 low...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 585,400 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 23 percent from the previous week, but up 4 percent from the prior 4-week averag...
Technical Views - Mixed to Higher
NOTE: There will be no Technical Perspectives reports on 4 September. SPREADS Nov. crush trades to 78.46c/bu while oilshare trades to 35.50%. D...
AM Outlook - Weighing Yields and Output
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed to higher this AM, with rainfall this week having a slightly dampening effect. Beans are higher as more business...
U.S. Wheat’s Uncertain Future
During the past two decades one of the most important U.S. agricultural crop production trends has been the movement of corn and soybean plantings into tra...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies While Wheat Takes a Break; Feeder Cattle are Overpriced
Yesterday’s CBOT trends were reversed with the soy complex moving higher while wheat traded a steady, lackluster day. Corn and soybeans started the d...
Notable Changes in U.S. Agricultural Trade
In the year of COVID, it is difficult to assign precise reasons for changes in trade flows but following are some observations about U.S. agricultural trad...
Responding to Trump Protectionism; Scary Sounding Protections
Responding to Trump Protectionism European farm ministers answered Donald Trump’s “protectionism” with, well more protectionism. German F...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.5875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China Meat Supply Projected to Increase in Last Quarter Of 2020 With the novel coronavirus largely contained and the economy firing on all cylind...
PM Post - Highs and Lows Likely to Stand
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 1/4 lower Dec meal: 1.90 lower Dec soyoil: 12 higher Dec corn: 2 1/2 lower Dec wheat: ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24-28 August 2020 The domestic Russian market prices for wheat, barley and rye changed insignificantly. Corn prices started moving d...
Technical Views - Mostly Lower
SPREADS October crush trades to 79.41c/bu while oilshare trades to 35.0%. Nov/Jan beans trades from 5 3/4c to 6 1/4c. Dec/March corn trad...
AM Outlook - Back and Fill Mission
GOOD MORNING, Prices are on a back and fill mission, with trading ranges now being carved out from the top of the market. The key reversal in soyoil...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies; Corn and Soybeans Look for Direction
The CBOT opened higher with support coming from USDA daily “flash” export sales announcements. Corn and soybeans started to weaken by mid-morni...
China Acquiescence; Selective Analysis
China Acquiescence Jeffrey Gerrish, the former deputy USTR for the Trump Administration is now back at his old law firm Skadden Arps and has little reason...
Brazil Punts on Ethanol TRQ
Reports from Brazil indicate that the government is leaning toward extending the TRQ for U.S. ethanol imports for 90 days (the TRQ expired yesterday). Ther...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.58/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.64/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. ...
Unnecessary Corn Buying
China has been purchasing significant volumes of corn at the same time it sits on the majority of the world’s surplus carryover of the grain. Its pol...
PM Post - Watch for Breaks
THE OPEN Nov beans: 1 higher Dec meal: .30 lower Dec soyoil: 3 lower Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1 higher Prices opened mo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan’s Competition Committee (CCP) has said that the government should reduce its r...
Technical Views - Mostly Lower
SPREADS October crush trades down to 77.95c/bu while oilshare trades to 35.0% on a market pullback. Dec/March corn trades into 9 1/2c from 10 1/4c.&n...
AM Outlook - Mixed with Profit-Taking
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this AM with gaps filled in beans and still waiting in corn as the markets find some profit-taking heading into the Septembe...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soyoil Post Reversals; Wheat Remains Strong
The CBOT once again opened higher with expectations for further reductions in crop condition ratings fueling buying activity. Deliveries against September...
Demanding Food Shortages
As Europe transitions to a low carbon economy amid COVID-related disruptions, there are rising concerns about developing shortages of basic materials. The...
Aid and Trade in the COVID Election Season
Initial unemployment claims topped 1 million for the second week in a row after previously declining below that psychological line. Total initial claims we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.5775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.&nb...