Recent Asia Analysis

Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher

The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...

FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 16 April)

Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 11 April 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight The trade war(s) and the possible Section 301 penalties against Chinese vessels docking at U.S. ports have kept freight markets exceptionally volatile in recent weeks. This week’s trend wa...

Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist

What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory.  In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...

Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again

The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...

WASDE Wheat

Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels.  The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...

Greer Approval; Tariffs and Trading Partners; Executive Power; Tech Reality

Greer Approval Jamieson Greer is expected to win approval from the Senate Finance Committee tomorrow to become the next U.S. Trade Representative. His hearing last week was notable mostly for the dissatisfaction in the Congress over trade policy under Biden and now under Trump. Former USTR Kath...

WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024

WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...

WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024

WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...

Bangladesh Food Import Projection

Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consumption. Imports include 5 MMT of grain (3.57 MMT is wheat), plus palm oil, milk powder, and other products. Roughly 3.5 percent of its food i...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)

*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...

Perceived Rice Shortage

Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and resulted in higher prices. The price of rice early this year was around $602/MT, substantially higher than the historical average of $381/MT...

Evolving Markets

Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...

Japan Boosts Corn and Protein

Japan’s population is declining by a half percent per year and will be 2 million smaller this year than in 2020. Nearly a third of the population is over 65 years of age, adding to the lower food demand factors. Yet the latest Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreig...

Eat Your Rice

South Korea wants more rice to be consumed and is subsidizing rice for college students, the cohort least likely to eat breakfast, and is incentivizing food products made from rice flour. Rice production is dropping as population growth has stalled, but rice consumption is dropping even faster...

Grain Substitution

Grain producers saw the value of their output fall in 2023 and the best they can hope for in 2024 is to stem the bleeding. Meanwhile, Europeans are frustrated as the price of cocoa has risen more than 50 percent over the past year. Asians are frightened as the price of rice has risen nearly 40...

Fostering Rice for Flour Unsustainable

South Korea has had a problem. Its farmers insist on growing rice while its consumers are increasingly switching consumption to wheat-based products. For the second time in recent years the government has contrived a subsidy plan to reduce rice output in favor of wheat or soybeans. It provides...

Tangential Rice Market Impacts

Given current tight global rice stocks and high prices (see graph below), the question is how much wheat will be substituted for food or feed use. Rice prices have dropped since their peak early this year, but wheat is still 35 percent cheaper by weight than rice as a food grain. It is one reas...

Vietnam’s Steady Growth

USDA/FAS forecasts Vietnam’s feed demand to grow to 26.6 MMT. This is largely pushed by a 3.3 percent expansion in pig production, and poultry rising by 2.3 percent. The overall economy is forecast to grow by 5 percent this year. Over the most recent four-year period, soybean imports are...

Rice Signals Future

Global rice stocks are down just 2.7 percent this year, but the drop is larger in key rice consuming countries, plus the largest rice exporting nation, India, imposed an export restriction. This has caused an exaggerated response in price with global values rising 29 percent year-on-year. ...

Rice Constrained

The Philippines Department of Agriculture announced the need to import another 500 KMT of rice. The country is already the second largest importer of rice after China, and this purchase will ensure it is a record year for Philippine imports. For most staple commodities, this is not a large volu...

Similarities of Farming and Manufacturing

Debate around the reauthorization of the U.S. farm bill is focused on the legislation’s two major functions, domestic food assistance and farm price supports. The former involves Republicans trying to reduce the most generous portions of what amounts to 81 percent of farm bill spending, a...

Türkiye’s Higher Wheat Flour Exports

Türkiye is the world’s largest exporter of wheat flour, and the International Grains Council says the country will export a record 5.4 MMT in MY 2023/24. That is up 12.5 percent from MY 2022/23. Part of the reason is a bumper domestic wheat crop based largely on higher yield. Rains a...

Forever Poor

Dhaka’s The Daily Star reports that Bangladesh seeks to avoid the increased trade disciplines that comes with the country’s elevation above least developed status. Except for the covid lockdown period, Bangladesh’s economy has been growing at 7 percent or better each year. Off...

South Korean Beef Supply

South Korea imposed increased inspection requirements on U.S> supplied beef following the finding of an atypical BSE case in South Carolina. Atypical cases occur spontaneously and, importantly, rarely. The U.S. remains in the category of being a negligible risk for BSE according to World Org...

North Korea Food Policy

North Korea has managed to produce the largest undernourished population of any country, 41.6 percent. Like supporters of Cuba, some blame U.S. sanctions policy, although food is excluded from any restrictions. Joseph Yi at Hanyang University in Seoul calls for resuming aid and supplying aid wo...

No Rice Crisis

The Economist magazine notes that rice yields are not improving very quickly and that the International Rice Research Institute says that it is the food commodity perhaps most vulnerable to climate change. It is also a major contributor to climate change due to its methane emissions and yet con...

Thailand Rice Exports

Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic production, and a rebounding global economy that has elevated the value of rice. In truth, Thai rice exports are highly correlated to production, wh...

Dreaming of Soybeans

Like many other countries that import soybeans, South Korea is hoping to become more self-sufficient in this oilseed. However, hope runs straight into the limits of geography. Right now the country produces about 9 percent of the 1.44 MMT of soybeans it consumes. Its agricultural area of 1.698...

Declining Population Impacts Consumption

According to USDA, South Korea’s government is taking steps to stop the price of rice from falling and to slow over-production. There will be payments to farmers for reducing planted area by 5.1 percent, and increased government purchases of rice at more than one-fifth of the crop. The pr...

Rice not Nice

India’s rice subsidies were again a complaint today at a hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. India’s rice exports have increased by a fifth over the past decade with all of it being moved into the export market. New Delhi’s rice subsidies have been part of a long-...

Philippines Agriculture; Future Trade Policy

Philippines Agriculture After remittances from overseas, agriculture and fisheries are the most important industries in the Philippines. A country of 114 million people of which one-quarter are engaged in agriculture. It is such an important sector that President Ferdinand “Bongbong&rdquo...

Japan Approves New Safeguard Triggers on U.S. Beef

Last week the Upper House of Japan’s Diet approved a new beef safeguard protocol which amends the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA). That is the final step of approval needed for the agreement and the two countries are finalizing the implementation procedures. The protocol was negotiated...

Wheat Concerns in Asia

Asia has been adopting wheat as a food staple over many decades but the war In Ukraine has some worried about its supply reliability. Over the past dozen years, rice consumption has averaged a 0.86 percent annual increase while wheat consumption has been growing at twice that rate. Because clim...

Free Trade Dreaming

The U.S. Congress often accomplishes more during lame duck sessions, the period after an election and before new members are sworn in, because those retiring from office converge with moderates to accomplish fundamental needs. Senator Rob Portman (R-Ohio) is retiring, and he has such a dream. H...

Alt-Meat Conundrum

Meat substitutes appear to be having trouble in the U.S. but perhaps not in Asia. Recent headlines related to the U.S. market imply a distribution chain that is a mile wide but just an inch deep. Here are some recent headlines: JBS pulled plug on plant-based meat division Planterra Foods Burnt...

No Rice Shortage

Food scarcity has been a frequent headline this year but with food inflation now dropping along with commodity prices, rice is an example of the scare that wasn’t. The monsoon was late starting in India, leading concerns that the world’s largest rice exporter would be driving up pri...

History Repeating is Okay

According to the news, multilateralism and globalization are in crisis. No less than U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said, “it’s not hard to imagine a world where we break into these blocs again.” Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said there’s...

Feed Demand from Stopping IUR

The WTO has been searching for limits in fisheries subsidies since at least 2001. There was agreement earlier this month to curb subsidies, though overfishing is expected to continue. Now the Biden Administration says it will continue to push for rules and enforcement against illegal and underr...

Russia Threatens Vegetable Oil

Oil palms require fertilizer every three months to maintain productivity but Russia’s war in Ukraine has threatened world supplies and driven up prices. This is particularly hurting Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier of palm oil. The imposition of export restrictions by Jakarta...

It’s More Than Food

In Japan, rice has been called the essence of culture; it has meant more than just food, though food security is the basis for policy interventions to protect it. Despite the nostalgia and market controls, rice on paddy fields is declining, giving way to more profitable wheat and soybeans that...

Flailing on Inflation; Japan’s Beef Craving; Incongruous Messaging

Flailing on Inflation Many months after inflation began eating into pocketbooks, the Biden Administration is on a full court press to try and address the problem. When it comes to food inflation, there is little that can be done. It simply costs more to grow, process, and ship product. When it...

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High

The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister indicated the country is talking with the UN on potential food export corridors in the Black Sea, w...

Indo-Pacific Economic Framework: Trade Rules without Trade Access

On his trip to Asia, President Biden announced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) for Prosperity, along with 12 countries in the region. The plan is structured to 1) establish rules governing trade in digital goods and services, 2) create commitments regarding supply chain to eliminate...

Misdiagnosed; Potemkin Trade Policy

Misdiagnosed U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said this week that, “Higher food and energy prices are having stagflationary effects, namely depressing output and spending and raising inflation all around the world.” She pushed for increased international food aid and advised int...

Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Week Mixed Amid Bullish U.S., Brazilian Weather

Light volume trade, profit taking, and spread reversals led to a mixed CBOT on Friday. Wheat futures were sharply lower as showers across the Plains boosted the crop outlook and prompted profit taking and reversal of wheat/corn spreads. Corn pushed higher and scored a new contract high while so...

Market Commentary: Palm Oil Export Ban Create Soyoil High; Funds Sell Corn, Soybeans Despite Hot, Dry Brazilian Weather

The CFTC was mostly lower to end the week with funds emerging as profit-takers in corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat. The soyoil market scored a new contract high on news of a palm oil export ban from Indonesia, however, and the KCBT wheat market strengthened on continued poor weather forecasts...

Happy 10th Anniversary KORUS FTA

Last week’s WASDE raised the forecast for beef export. A large reason was Korea, so far the top export destination for U.S. beef. Indeed, today is the 10th anniversary of the U.S.-Korea free trade agreement. No other commodity has benefited as much as beef. Over the span of the agreement,...

Money Talks; Cultural Animal Welfare; GMO’s are Safer

Money Talks The Conference Board notes that it has been a record year for shareholder proposals involving environmental and social initiatives. However, the outcome of such an initiative at Tysons Foods shows that most shareholders are focused on a company’s bottom line. They voted overwh...

Not so Sweet; Not so Green

Not so Sweet The WTO last month sided with Australia, Brazil, and Guatemala that India’s sugar subsidies were distorting and illegal. India has appealed the ruling knowing that the WTO’s Appellate Panel is non-functioning, thus putting the case in limbo. However, Brazil intends to r...

Fossil Fuel Foibles; Broken Mirrors; Biden on Asia; Threats on the Farm

Fossil Fuel Foibles Fossil fuels and agriculture are highly integrated, including via fuel, chemical inputs, and commodity fund valuations. Thus, it is important to watch climate campaigners attempting to use regulatory approaches toward reducing U.S. carbon emissions. Biden Administration appo...

Workers of World United

The analytics company CultureX says that people are more likely to quit their jobs due to a toxic workplace culture than due to their salary. That may be true but a Bain & Company survey of 20,000 workers in ten countries found that compensation was the number one issue for employees. This...

Three-Year Rebuild

The price of palm oil has been rising since the start of 2021, reaching a local price roughly double the average of the previous dozen years. Production in 2021 was down around 5 percent from the historical average, but the lowest since 2016.  Malaysian palm oil exports were down nearly 11...

Beef: Where East Meets West

Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U.S. It has also resulted in a drawdown in the regions surplus stocks. Complicating the supply situation has been drought in Australia, an at...

Creeping Toward CPTPP

President Biden said he would first build back America’s infrastructure before re-engaging the U.S. in trade agreements. It should be noted that his infrastructure packages are stalled on Capitol Hill at the same time his trade policy has been creeping along toward fruition. Transatlantic...

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Soybean Stocks; Palm Oil Price; ND Soy Crush Plant

U.S. Soy Export Sales and Exports Update Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters had a positive week selling U.S. soybeans for export in the week ending 23 September. Soybean exports also picked up from the previous week. Sales of soymeal also were fairly positive. ...

Wine over Beer; Bad Timing; PR Approach; Korean Hope

Wine over Beer Policymakers hoping to compel the citizenry into drastic actions to cut carbon emissions have poured cold water on their messaging with the current energy price spike. Now opponents are piling on with their own stark reminders of how cold literally kills. Winter cold still kills...

Market Commentary: Macro Risk Off

Don’t take it personally that markets across the board showed weakness today. Exceptions being the dollar and lean hogs. The problem is dropping consumer sentiment as growth slows in Asia and worries grow about inflation. Notable was the Biden Administration’s announced plan to atta...

Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad

Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President of the Almond Board Alliance of California. Her prior experience includes serving as Deputy Secretary and Assistant Secretary at the Califor...

Oilseed Bonanza

Rabobank reports that over $2 billion is being invested to expand North American oilseed crush capacity. Part will be to support the expansion in biodiesel but overall oilseed demand remains strong. While the world’s population grows at an annual rate of 1.1 percent, global trade in veget...

It is all Relative

The inflating costs of energy has some policymakers concerned about its impact on the economic recovery as consumers redirect their spending obligations. However, it is important to weigh inflation relative to the base cost. For example, energy costs are inflating faster in the U.S. and Canada,...

Common Poverty; Saved by Drought; Vietnam Concessions

Common Poverty Chinese President Xi Jinping has taken the Communist manifesto to heart and declared a “common prosperity” for all Chinese. Socialism and capitalism successfully coexist but it is dependent on private businesses retaining a degree of independence, certainty about the...

Commodities Fuel Bogeyman; Journalistic Malpractice; Cold Afghan Water

Commodities Fuel Bogeyman In the most recent Hill-HarrisX poll of American public opinion, the top selected issue of current concern is inflation. Inequality slightly beat out inflation as a top concern for Democratic respondents, who also had very low concern for the second most important issu...

Inconvenient Truths; Innovative Approach; Killing Innovation

Inconvenient Truths EU officials released a preliminary analysis of the impacts of the F2F and biodiversity changes to the CAP and major farm organizations Copa & Cogeca have highlighted its disappointing results. The EU’s Joint Research Center came to the same conclusions as USDA&rsq...

U.S. Red Meat Exports Winning the Long Game

The May export data is in. Pork export volume was the third highest on record behind March 2020 and March 2021. Beef export volume set a historic record (also beating the previous high mark of March 2021), and for the third consecutive month the beef export value set a record. To date, beef exp...

We Have The Meat

There are a lot of voices discouraging the consumption of meat but for much of the world, demand continues to grow. Most of that demand growth is in Asia and so it is little surprise that the trade in pork has been growing the fastest. Given its lower cost, it would be reasonable to assume that...

Productivity Impacts; Classic Policy Divides

Productivity Impacts The Kansas City Federal Reserve kicked off its annual conference on agriculture with this year’s topic seemingly a little tin eared. The focus is on productivity. Topics include the role of research and development, technology and data, and spillover effects on the su...

Anti-Meat Campaign; Personnel Picks

Anti-Meat Campaign The number of media articles against consuming meat and poultry is beginning to spike. They cover the range of arguments served up by vegetarian campaigners – bad for the environment, bad for human health, unethical, etc. There are of course counter-arguments but there...

Livestock Round Up: Bullish Beef Outlook

It’s a month and a half until Memorial Day weekend, the official kick off of seasonal beef demand. The Choice cutout was $276.62/cwt today, up from a $272/cwt average last week, which was up about $20/cwt from the week prior. Part of that rally is demand, and part is supply. March beef pr...

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy; Trade Bullying

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy A session at the Washington International Trade Association today tried to unravel the meaning of the Biden Administration’s so-called worker-led trade policy. Most of the discussion centered on high level economic theory and the mischaracterization of tra...

Pandemic Not Fully Reflected

The Pew Research Center has attracted a lot of ink for its analysis of losses to middle income earners from the pandemic. Its data, derived from World Bank and IMF numbers, show the greatest loss of the middle class in South Asia, followed by East Asia. The advanced economies saw growth in the...

Taiwan – Tip of the Spear

It is unclear which of several geopolitical rifts (Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea, etc.) between China and the west is going to prove the tipping point toward open conflict but there are ample opportunities. Beijing’s latest move was to reduce and control the number of elect...

Camel’s Nose; Technology and Sustainability; Limits of Sanctions

Camel’s Nose USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack appeared to discount Mexico’s plan to ban glyphosate and GMO corn by saying it would not affect U.S. feed corn being shipped south. However, the U.S. ships a certain amount of white corn to Mexico for human consumption and, more importantly, M...

ASF Loosens Import Restrictions

The Philippines may increase its pork imports under a reduced tariff by over 600 percent, from 54,210 MT to 404,210 MT to better meet demand and reduce price inflation. The agriculture ministry says around 15 percent of the hog inventory was lost to ASF in 2020 and, as a result, it cannot meet...

Tough Sino-West Balance; Japan Pickle

Tough Sino-West Balance Any hope of comity with China went out the window last week in Anchorage and into the sewer this week over sanctions related to treatment of the Uyghurs. China is making it clear that it will not be somehow characterized as morally inferior to the west. It has pulled man...

Real WTO Problem; Beggars’ Rights; Political Horse-trading

Real WTO Problem The President’s 2021 Trade Agenda and 2020 Annual Report highlights the trade protectionism in India and efforts to change New Delhi’s policies. One area of criticism is “Make in India” campaign but that is not such a unique policy. Many countries are no...

Sustainability Goals; Splintering Transatlantic; Korea Reveals WTO Flaws

Sustainability Goals Returning USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack says that agriculture is ready to embrace the goals of slowing climate change. President Biden has issued several executive orders limiting fossil fuel development and more are forthcoming. However, his centrally planned Build America Be...

Disproportionate ASF Impacts

While China gets most of the attention on African Swine Fever just because of the volume of production adversely impacted, the Philippines has suffered a larger percentage drop in output. From peak to trough, Chinese pork production fell 30 percent, but Filipino production is off 32.8 percent...

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Profit Taking, Weak Palm Oil; South American Dryness Returns this Week

The CBOT settled lower under a mix of profit taking and position liquidation after a weekend of mostly favorable weather across South America. Funds were heavy sellers in corn and soybeans, selling some 15,000 and 20,000 contracts, respectively, in each market. The CBOT tends to weaken in the s...

Next Pork Markets

Global pork exports have grown by 66 percent over the past decade, with China a major reason for the expansion. A major driver for China’s expanded imports over the past year-plus has been African Swine Fever. Now that ASF is under control and China’s domestic hog herd is expanding...

Veg Oil Leads Spike

The UN FAO reports that global agricultural commodity prices rose 3.1 percent in 2020. Though overall commodity prices are still below 2012 levels, vegetable oil prices are now at their highest level since that pivotal year. Global vegetable oil prices rose 4.7 percent in December alone, and we...

Besmirch Strategy Fails; More Quid Pro Quo; Prospects for Biden and 2021

Besmirch Strategy Fails Activists called it an acute health threat, orchestrated petitions and demanded that institutions only serve domestic pork. Despite a well-organized campaign of opposition to importing U.S. pork raised with the beta-agonist growth promoter ractopamine, Taiwan's parliamen...

Coming Currency War; Trees Over People; Punching Above Weight Class

Coming Currency War The dollar is now nearly 13 percent weaker than it was earlier this year and possibly headed lower based on massive deficit spending. The inverse is that other currencies are getting stronger. And for those nations that are export dependent, a stronger currency threatens the...

Stick Picked; Digital Leakage; Baht Caught

Stick Picked In U.S. agriculture, the head of USDA is sugar daddy, handing out checks, buying up surpluses and generally using carrots to obtain environmental improvements. By contrast, EPA is the stick side of the equation, laying down regulatory compliance requirements that impose costs on fa...

Offline is More Fun; Chicken or Egg; Leaving a Goose Egg

Offline is More Fun Today was the first day of this year’s online EU Agricultural Outlook Conference, but more fun was had in the sidebar chats of participants watching the speakers via their computer screens. The first day was dominated by officials explaining the Farm to Fork and Green...

Global Flour Trade Has Changed

The U.S. was once the largest wheat flour exporter in the world followed by Canada, but that trade now belongs to a different part of the world – Southwest and Central Asia. Turkey and Kazakhstan are the #10 and #13 wheat producing countries, respectively, but together they control 37 per...

Maize Harder to Yield

Maize is harder to grow, or at least harder to grow well. Crop yields vary tremendously across the hundreds of countries where grown but the disparity is more notable for corn. For rice and wheat, the country with the 15th highest yield in these two crops is netting over 60 percent of the yield...

Water Investment

The extremely dry conditions in Argentina illustrate the low level of irrigation in many countries around the world. In terms of number of irrigated hectares, China is number one, followed by India and then the U.S. However, on a percent share of total agricultural land, Japan is by far number...

Biden Trade Policy

President-Elect Joe Biden has not yet named his nominee to become U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) but there are plenty of breadcrumbs that suggest the person will be: 1) conventional; and 2) likely a former Obama Administration official. That has been the pattern for his other economic policy...

Agriculture’s Gig Workers; Final Acts – Part 1; No New Hazards; Geneva Squeeze

Agriculture’s Gig Workers A consortium of leftist, environmental and anti-meat activists is suing U.S. meat companies for marketing their products as produced by independent family farmers. The groups argue that due to the contracting system utilized, the meat is instead the output of cor...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Concern is rising for the Argentina wheat market after Brazil, the primary buyer of Argentine wheat, announced a tariff-free import quota of 750,000 MT of wheat from non-MERCOSUR origins. At the same time, the RECP free trade agreement might give Australia an advantage selling wheat to de...

Agriculture and RCEP

Asian leaders gather this Sunday to hopefully put the final touches on a trade agreement called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The negotiations have taken eight years and, as usual, the word comprehensive does not apply to agriculture. Likely exempt from tariff reductio...

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Buys U.S. Soyoil; Shortage of Containers

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Last week was another good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans and soybean products. If the pace of sales and exports continue it could be a record export year for the U.S. soybean sector. Net export sales of soybeans in the week ending 29 October totaled 1,530,5...

Post-Trump Outcomes; Food but Not Income; Between Elephants

Post-Trump Outcomes Analysts in Washington are war gaming the possible aftermath of next Tuesday’s presidential election and finding nothing good. On the one hand, if Mr. Trump wins reelection, the “swamp” as he likes to call it, predicts a newly emboldened incumbent White Hou...

Denuded Logic; Tax Consequences

Denuded Logic A key argument by some Europeans in both opposing palm oil imports, voting against a trade agreement with Brazil, and seeking self-sufficiency in plant proteins is deforestation. Politicians are reminded that Brazil’s rainforests are the earth’s “lungs” and...

Biden Implications to Phase One; Inequitable Compensation; Apples and Oranges

Biden Implications to Phase One At this juncture, China needs soybeans, corn and other products, and the U.S. is currently the lowest cost supplier of some agricultural commodities. However, one question is how faithful will China be to Phase One purchasing obligations when other suppliers beco...

Worse than Agriculture

The agriculture sector is under strong criticism for its harm to the environment. Multilateral disciplines on agricultural subsidies are considered too weak, but at least they exist. The damage caused by subsidized fishing is less obvious to the layman because it lies under the sea. One study c...

Wheat-Rice Substitution

In the classic position of a wheat exporting nation, consumers that have traditionally consumed rice as a food grain ultimately become wheat consumers. This is true, but it can also be said that traditional wheat consumers eat more rice when given access to it.  Southeast Asian countries l...

Experience versus Korea; Breaking the GMO Boundary

Experience versus Korea The runoff to be the next leader of the WTO is between Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and South Korea’s Yoo Myung-hee. Because of her successful career in a sister international institution, the World Bank, Ms. Okonjo-Iweala likely has stronger operational ski...

Pick Your Poison

Given China’s pork shortage and its concurrent sensitivity to imports, some have speculated that pork has been entering the country, or is poised to, via unofficial pathways. Many countries are talking about shortening supply chains and increasing self-sufficiency. Taiwan went the opposit...

Oilseed Highlights: Palm Oil Ban; Soy Export Sales; Argentine Export Taxes; Soybean Stocks

U.S. Bans Imports of Crude Palm Oil from Malaysian Company FGV Holdings The U.S. Government yesterday banned imports of crude palm oil from the Malaysian Firm FGV Holdings. The ban came after a year-long investigation by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency that revealed signs of...

Forex Contradictions; Good Consortiums; Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My!

Forex Contradictions President Donald Trump may not understand the complexities of currency valuations, but he knows their importance. His concurrent chastising of foreign governments for manipulating those values while making threats against the dollars’ worth not-withstanding. China has...

The Daily Onion

Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...

Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle

Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberalized trade. She called for settling the current bilateral disputes like Airbus/Boeing, plus working together on WTO reforms and China. That ma...

Rice Self-Sufficiency

It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire.  Global rice trade hi...

Vertical Energy; Good News

Vertical Energy Temasek Holdings and Bayer announced an investment in vertical agriculture in Singapore. It should be noted that their focus is on producing and marketing seeds and not actual production. Vertical agriculture promises an escape from the variable of weather, but the addition of t...

Another Leader Down; Tipping Past Taipei; Energy Disruption

Another Leader Down The announcement that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzö Abe will resign to focus on a chronic health issue was a shock and could be disruptive. Abe ended Japan’s previous run of frequent turnover at the top and became the longest serving leader in history. His abilit...

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; India Wants Biotech Oilseeds and Higher Oil Tariffs

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report was both positive and somewhat disappointing. Sales of soybeans for the upcoming marketing year were large, but not for 2019/20. Sales of soymeal and soyoil were disappointing. However, exports of soybeans and soymeal last week...

Harris on Food; Seasonal Produce Hearing; Pick Your Partner; Idle or Convert; Truth to Power

Harris on Food U.S. Senator Kamala Harris (D-California) is Mr. Biden’s selection for vice president on his ticket and she is your garden variety Democrat when it comes to agriculture. She advocates for farmworkers, domestic food assistance and is a co-sponsor of the Green New Deal. Perha...

Yield versus Exporting

U.S. corn farmers out-yield their competitors but then lose to the competition’s lower prices. Similarly, Vietnam has the highest rice yields in Southeast Asia but fails to compete with Thailand in exporting despite the latter having the smallest yield in the region. According to industry...

Beef Growth and Decline

Beef is expensive to produce, emits the most greenhouse gases, is highly cultural in some places and has a highly evolving demand structure. Over the past decade, consumption of beef in otherwise relatively large consuming Russia has declined the most of any of the top 20 countries. Note that t...

Building a Poultry Industry

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was in the news inspecting a new chicken farm and calling for improvements to an outdated poultry industry. Efficient poultry production involves processes and feed. The former may be easier than the latter given that country’s climate and geography, though...

USDA Reports: Protein Production Recovery, Global Trade Decline

Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast up from last month. Last month’s WASDE total beef, pork and broiler production estimate for 2020 was bumped up to be 0.05 percent greater than 2019. This month it is projected to be 1.7 percent ahead of last...

Market Commentary

Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...

Corn Imports Grow

Global corn imports continue to expand but increases by Vietnam and the EU standout. Mexico remains a major market, but imports are growing at roughly the same rate as the world as a whole, around five percent per year. By contrast, over the past decade Vietnam’s corn imports have grown 1...

Rice Glass House

Both Brazil and the U.S. have issued protests over a Thai legal ban against imported commodities and food with residues of the weed killer paraquat and the pesticide chlorpyrifos. The ban will prevent billions of dollars of trade in wheat, soybeans and some foods. The two countries have asked T...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Government Takeover of Soy Crusher Vicentin Last week, Argentina’s government announced it would intervene in the bankruptcy of one of the nation’s biggest soybean crusher – Vicentine. The government is sending a proposal to Congress to take over the company. Vicentine has ove...

WASDE Corn

USDA's U.S. corn outlook is for 2020/21 supply to be up slightly and no changes in projected use; Ending stocks are 5 million bushels higher at 3.3 billion bushels.  The season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.20 per bushel. Brazilian corn production is unchanged, as higher area is of...

Policy Shorts

Tokyo Challenges Beijing: While the EU has been reluctant to join a trade war with the U.S. against China, Japan’s Shinzō Abe appears to have sided with Washington. First, he supported a G7 statement against Beijing’s new controls over Hong Kong and now he has offered the island&rsq...

Livestock Round Up: WASDE Shows Meat and Poultry Recovering Ahead of Schedule

Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast up from last month reflecting a faster than expected recovery from slaughter plant shutdowns, backlogs and reconfigured operations. Slaughter was down the last week of May due to Memorial Day, but last week rebound...

Rice as Laggard

It was noted yesterday that the growth in global production of wheat has tracked population growth whereas corn and soybeans have expanded exponentially more. Wheat is predominantly a food grain whereas corn and soybeans have fed the expanding animal protein sector. Rice is also predominantly a...

Parting Ways – The Strategy

The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued its first regulatory guidance on genetically engineered crops in 1992 and by 1996 the first DNA modified seeds were going into the ground. European activists hated the idea. Called it Frankenfood and warned that the technology would lead to Armaged...

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened higher overnight with strength from Tuesday’s reversals carrying through into trade early on Wednesday. The markets turned lower, however, as concerns about worsening relations between the U.S. and China weighed on futures. The soy complex took the brunt of that concern an...

Hong Kong is Trouble; EU Mugs the FAANG’s; Kenya’s Burdens

Hong Kong is Trouble Under a requirement from Congress, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo notified that Hong Kong was no longer autonomous from China. The announcement is in response to Beijing’s imposition of national security legislation on Hong Kong this week, but it has much larger...

Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Argentine Soy Sales; Thailand Restriction; Soy and COVID-19

Big U.S. Soybean Export Sales Last Week The week ending 14 May was a good one for U.S. exporters of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil according to today’s USDA export sales report. Large sales to China were the major reason. Net soybean export sales last week for shipment in 2019/20 totaled 1,...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA Estimates - outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks in 2020/21.  The soybean crop is projected at 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields.   The U.S. soybean crush for...

Dis-integrating Global Economy; Airplane War Update

Dis-integrating Global Economy Economists warn that protectionism will slow the global recovery but both governments and companies now view the retreat from China as inevitable. For one, supply chains were already being broken via the U.S. trade war with China and now COVID-19 reveals the fragi...

Wrong Negotiations; ROO Trumps Substantial Transformation

Wrong Negotiations Washington and London kick off two weeks of videoconference trade negotiations this week, hoping to reach an agreement this year. The gambit helps gives leverage to Boris Johnson’s Brexit negotiations with Brussels while Mr. Trump gets to poke a finger at the Commission...

WHO Guidance Effectiveness

The World Health Organization’s Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office issued an advisory recently that advised people to consume unsaturated fats such as those in fish, avocado, nuts, olive oil, soy, canola, sunflower and corn instead of the saturated fat in meat, butter, palm and coconut...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Heavy rains that fell across a large portion of Argentina’s agricultural area last week slowed the arrival of trucks to export ports. The number of trucks arriving daily fell from 2,400 in the prior week week to 1,400 last week. The number of truck arrivals at southern ports was stil...

Pandemic Predictions on Food

Many are calling for paradigm shifts in most societal functions and a lot of changes are already happening, but government will slow farming’s ability to react. Food Retail: Over half the money families spent on food was for meals prepared away from home. Amid stay at home orders, food de...

Higher Egg Demand

The coronavirus has likely contributed to a recent spike in U.S. egg demand and consequently prices as well. Production volume cuts occurred just ahead of this increased consumer demand. Meanwhile, margins earned by major egg producing companies has been healthy despite lower volumes due to the...

Virus and Trade

There is a debate over how much the coronavirus experience will impact international trade and globalization. On the one hand, dependence on supply chains that easily get broken and cross-contamination from international travel informs the negative side of the equation. On the other side are al...

Virus Economic Impact

How the economy and consumers react to the coronavirus will be important to the food and agriculture sector. A large economic decline like the Great Recession beginning in September 2008 caused the stock market to continue losing money until March of 2009. That means that any single day’s...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Regional Updates Imploding financial markets, sharply weaker crude oil, and ever-growing concerns about the economic impacts of coronavirus continue to be the primary drivers of market action this week. Demand and consumption concerns are growing for most commodities, keeping prices on the defe...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, harvest progress reached 2.7 percent of the planted area last week. Hot and dry weather is allowing for faster progress in the last two days and will be even higher going forward. There are only scattered showers forecast for the next several d...

Policy Shorts – Because its Friday

EU Sensibilities: The European Academies Science Advisory Council doesn’t have the credibility of Greenpeace with European media, but its message carries more weight than in the past. Behind closed doors, policymakers want out from under the bootstrap of the Novel Foods Directive. The EAS...

Virus Geopolitics; Process Tariffs

Virus Geopolitics The trade war had already caused changes in supply chains and now COVID-19 is adding to the reconsiderations. However, globalization involves an integration that isn’t easily reversed. As noted by technology analyst Benedict Evans, the world has 5.5 billion people over t...

Market Commentary

The market opened lower across the board as called with coronavirus on the brain. It has now spread to 30 countries but the WHO has yet to call it a pandemic. The market is assuming the worst, with some even saying there will be a recession. Money reacts to fear and volatility, with funds in la...

COVID-19 Calculations; Trade Policy Shorts

COVID-19 Calculations Equities have now plunged two days in a row over the coronavirus, but commodities fought back today rather than overreact. The COVID-19 virus is said to have put Italy close to recession, though German businesses are said to still be positive. That is the problem with curr...

Change in Major Philippine Crops

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is a controversial leader and some critics complain that he has hurt the country’s agriculture by allowing increased imports at the same time food prices are rising. The most notable and dramatic increase has been in rice imports. The population annual...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA forecasts that soybean meal prices will remain unchanged at $305.00 per short ton.  ...

WASDE Corn

USDA reports that 2019/20 U.S. corn had offsetting changes to exports and corn used for ethanol.  With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are unchanged from last month.  The season-average corn price received by producers is also unchanged at $3.85 per bushel.  Global...

S&D Effort Breaks Model

The Trump Administration’s approach to trade policy can be characterized as power politics. It has withdrawn the benefit of accessing the large American market to coerce improved terms of trade. In its current effort to reform the use of special and differential (S&D) treatment in the...

Vietnam Soymeal Use in 2020

Vietnam’s soymeal use has been rising at about 7 percent per year. However, the outbreak of African Swine Fever has caused a drop-off in pork production and a concurrent increase in chicken output. Since poultry is more efficient than swine at conversion of plant protein into muscle tissu...

The Next China

The country with the largest population is China and India is second but agricultural marketers are always looking for alternative markets. Indonesia has 265 million people living on 17,000 islands with a total arable land base of just 13 percent. While its import policies have been designed to...

Fair and Equitable; Contrasts in Productive Attitudes; Authoritatively Wrong

Fair and Equitable In order to secure votes for the USMCA from Florida and Georgia politicians representing perishable fruit and vegetable growers, USTR promised subsequent action to impose the kind of seasonal import protections that failed to make it into the agreement just negotiated with Me...

Sourcing China’s Pork Requirements

China’s pork imports have increased from 100 KMT in May of 2018 to nearly 350 KMT in November of 2019. That means that China’s increased need for pork in 2019 required the absorption of one-third of the world’s surplus product. Notably, the EU was the main supplier of the incr...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The wheat market has, so far, been immune from the effects of Argentina’s new export taxes. Internationally, supply/demand factors for major wheat exporters (the U.S., Australia, for example) are becoming more complicated and the Brazilian crop is coming in slightly below expectatio...

Livestock Round Up

Cattle on Feed Preview USDA will release its monthly cattle on feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 December at 102.1 percent of last year. If accurate the number of cattle on feed are back above year ago levels for the 35th...

Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Soy Crush; Soy Export Sales; Uncertainty About Sales to China

Near Record NOPA Soybean Crush in December The National Oilseed Processors Association yesterday released its monthly soybean crush report for December. The report indicated NOPA’s members reported crushing 174.812 million bushels (4.758 MMT) of soybeans in December. That was up from the...

Return to Managed Trade

Critics of the trade deal signed today between the U.S. and China lament President Trump’s policy tilt toward “managed trade.” Trump Administration officials resigned themselves that if they could not compel China (and other countries) into greater market orientation, they wou...

Tomorrow’s Trade Deal Revelations; Subsidies Agreement; Future of Futures

Tomorrow’s Trade Deal Revelations The actual text of a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and China is supposed to be released tomorrow, although key parts will be missing. Thus far, information about the agreement has been the verbal spin of Trump Administration officials. One point m...

Market Commentary

The CBOT continued making modest adjustments in the wake of Friday’s WASDE, but found relatively little new information upon which to trade. The USDA will resurvey parts of the Midwest where harvest was severely impacted by the fall weather, but even modest reductions to production estima...

Livestock Round Up

Tomorrow USDA releases a lot of much anticipated data: WASDE projections, quarterly grain stocks, and final annual crop production. Markets will be looking at revised yields, stocks, and acreage details which were murky and uncertain through the spring and fall. For the livestock markets, it wi...

Election Perceptions and Policy

In what would be a nightmare scenario for American Democrats, large majorities of East Asian business leaders surveyed by the Nikkei expect President Trump to get re-elected this year. It is unclear how much these viewpoints reflect the perceptions of political leaders in these major Asian coun...

Input: Useful and Not; Size Fallacy

Input: Useful and Not China is reportedly taking credit for its leadership this past year in the World Trade Organization. It says it believes in the multilateral process and is committed to the reform of the organization. The latter claim is somewhat sullied by the nation’s continued cla...

Coming Decade of Asian Growth to “Energize” Global Trade

Since the post-World War II era and the establishment of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the WTO, there has been one general rule of thumb: economic growth in developing countries drives commodity demand, be it for energy, raw materials or agriculture and fo...

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil and Argentine Weather, India Tariffs, Brazil Soy Exports, Pakistan

Parts of Brazil Soybean Area in Need of Rain Most the soybean growing areas of Brazil are apparently in good condition with adequate rainfall. However, in two areas – Northeast Brazil and Rio Grande do Sul - soybeans are suffering from dryness and need rainfall.  In northeastern Braz...

Differing PRC-USA Priorities; Fed’s Trade War Analysis; MDB Distortions

Differing PRC–USA Priorities President Trump earlier said that he wanted a Phase One trade agreement to be signed by himself and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and hinted he would like it signed in the U.S. Chinese sources said that President Xi has distanced himself politically from the a...

Future of Meat

The think tank RethinkX issued a report with a 24-word, 166-character title predicting the end of the conventional meat industry by 2030. Entitled, ‘Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030: The Second Domestication of Plants and Animals, the Disruption of the Cow, and the Collapse of In...

Oilseed Highlights - Containers; Biodiesel; China Imports

Record High Soybean Container Exports  Monday’s export inspections report indicated that USDA personnel inspected 1,083,866 MT of soybeans during the week ending December 19. Included in that amount was 113,271 MT of soybeans to be exported in containers. That was an unusually large...

Flighty Farm Proposal; Coercing Thailand

Flighty Farm Proposal U.S. Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) is getting attention in populist corners for his proposed Farm System Reform Act that would place a national moratorium on “factory farms.” The act does not define “factory&rdqu...

Kazakhstan: The Next Cattle Ranching Frontier?

While most of the trade news today is focused on the USMCA, there’s another tidbit that shows the increasing influence of the east on the future of beef demand. Situated between Russia and China, and across the Caspian Sea from the Middle East, Kazakhstan has been generating a lot of atte...

December 2019 WASDE Estimates

The December WASDE will be released tomorrow, December 10 at 11:00 Chicago time.  This provides industry estimates on what to expect.   Typically this is a minor report since it will not update US crop production numbers and only focus on the demand side of the balance sheet in a...

Doubt About China’s Pork Renaissance

The Chinese government says it wants to restore domestic pork production to its prior glory, but history sheds doubt on its prospects. As noted previously, ASF has had a demonstrably larger impact on China than did BSE on Europe, and yet EU beef production and consumption have never fully recov...

Duty Free Pork Impact

U.S. pork producers are asking for zero duty access into the Chinese market, saying it would reduce the trade deficit by 6 percent. Without doubt, U.S. pork sales would increase if allowed unfettered access into China. Pork prices were generally higher in China before the outbreak of ASF (see g...

A Faint Light from Golden Rice

As someone who has for many years pursued a deep interest in the business and economics of agriculture and food, one of the greatest frustrations and disappointments is the organized, systematic opposition to nearly all the scientific and technical advances in food and agricultural production d...

Alignments Against Phase One; Coal Fired Electric Cars; Market Openings

Alignments Against Phase One The markets reacted today to negative news about the state of the U.S. – China trade war. Craig Allen, President of U.S.-China Business Council said he is pessimistic, suggesting that Xi Jinping does not trust Donald Trump and any phase one agreement will be b...

GMO versus GHG; State versus Commercial

GMO versus GHG Vietnam has delayed its decision to ban glyphosate into 2021 but Thailand has maintained its ban, which is adversely impacting U.S. commodity shipments with any residues. American officials are pressing their Thai counterparts to use science-based standards, but it is unclear how...

Trouble Targeting

USDA has targeted select foreign markets for increased attention this year, including sending trade missions to solicit sales. The success to date has been mixed. In part this is due to head winds such as the high value of the dollar and slower economic growth in countries impacted by the trade...

WASDE Corn

USDA Estimates: U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks.  Corn production is forecast at 13.661 billion bushels, down 118 million from last month on a 1.4-bushel reduction in yield to 167.0 bushels per acre.  The season-average corn price rece...

USMCA Trouble; Thai Troubles; Farmers versus the Facts

USMCA Trouble U.S. House Ways & Means trade subcommittee member Bill Pascrell (D-New Jersey) says he is leaning toward voting against USMCA because the Mexicans are not doing enough meaningful labor reform. Organized labor in the U.S. has taken a strong line, demanding actions by Mexico tha...

Argentine Election Impacts; Technological Sovereignty; Your Survey Answer; Food Trends

Argentina Election Impacts Argentines went to the voting booths for a general election yesterday (27 October) that was deemed fateful for agriculture. As the public opinion polls predicted, Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner won and will become President and Vice...

Food Demand Present and Future

In recent years, a number of agricultural futurists have expressed concern about the ability of the world to increase the food supply enough to feed the world’s population in 2050. The world population currently is about 7.3 billion people, and although the rate at which population is gro...

Canadian Ag Policy, Eh?; Korean Example at OECD

Canadian Ag Policy, Eh? After winning a plurality of seats but not a majority, Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party will have to govern as a coalition and no one expects much to happen, especially in rural western Canada. Western Canada, where the Conservatives control politics, is agriculture...

Black Sea Miracle

The return of the Black Sea region as the breadbasket of the world is really a story about productivity gain. Over a decade (2008 to 2017), both China and Indonesia increased their total crop output by around 25 percent, but they did this in part by expanding their cropped areas by 10.7 percent...

S&DT Hypocrisy

The WTO operates as a democracy and it is said that democracies fail when the citizens ask for more than it can deliver. The Trump Administration goes to war with a majority of the WTO members at the next General Council meeting on 15 October. It will press its case that countries cannot concur...

Utopian Agriculture Irony; Trouble in Major Markets

Utopian Agriculture Irony Debating the future of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be a major objective for the new politicians in Brussels and the twists and turns ahead are fascinating.  First, there is the issue of crop protection. Chemophobia is in full swing with the demand to...

Hogs and Pigs Report Indicates Increased Slaughter Ahead

According to today’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report, the total swine inventory on 1 September was 77.7 million head, 103 percent of last year and of the 1 June inventory.   The numbers announced today overall were neutral to slightly bearish compared to the industry trade guesses pr...

Livestock Roundup

Hogs and Pigs Preview USDA will release its quarterly hogs and pigs report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total swine inventory at approximately 77.3 head, which is 103 percent of last year, which set a record for the 1 September herd. If the predictions are correct,...

Market Commentary

Trade news was floating through the air like snowflakes in December with President Trump noting that a trade deal with China could happen “sooner than you think”. U.S. Trade representative Lighthizer was more reserved in his comments and said “we’ll see” about a Ch...

Transatlantic Food Fight; Un-nice to Rice

  Transatlantic Food Fight U.S. producers are gearing up for what they foresee as a tightening regulatory blockade of their products going to Europe. Europe is moving sooner and faster on environmental restrictions and the expectation is that these become promulgated into import restrictio...

Market Commentary

The markets found early, overnight strength after initial corn harvest results from parts of Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa showed areas where yields were 40 percent lower than 2018. Additional support came from confirmation that the cancelation of Chinese trade delegate visits to American farms l...

No China ASF Visit; Where Not What; KORUS Environmental Consultations

No China ASF Visit Wall Street and Chicago headed lower after President Trump signaled that trade negotiations with China were not proceeding as hoped. He basically said China purchasing agricultural commodities is not enough, that he wants a complete deal and he doesn’t need it before th...

WASDE Soyoil

USDA soyoil estimates: The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA soymeal estimates: The soybean meal price is projected at $305 per short ton, up $5.00. ...

ASF Worse Case Scenario

The FAO is scheduled to issue an African Swine Fever (ASF) update on Thursday, 12 September and it is now likely to include the Philippines in the growing list of countries impacted by the disease. While most of the attention on this Thursday’s WASDE report from USDA will focus on its pro...

Pork Export Rebound Just in Time

The pent-up global pork demand is finally starting to take effect, and it would appear just in time for U.S. producers.  July pork exports from the U.S. were 233,242 MT. That is an all-time monthly record (ahead of the previous record set in April 2018) and 132 percent of July 2018. ...

Trump’s Successes; Glyphosate Opposites

Trump’s Successes President Trump gets blamed for much, including for burning down the Amazon by one red-faced environmentalist. His approach can be likened to be the bull in the china closet, but he is having some limited successes: • There is no agreement yet with China but if ther...

Oilseed Highlights: China and India Soybeans, Soy Export Prices, Brazil Soybeans, U.S Soy Crop

U.S. Ag Office Lowers Forecast for China’s Soybean Imports The USDA/FAS office in Beijing this week forecasted China’s soybean imports in 2018/19 at 82 MMT and 80 MMT in 2019/20. That compares to current USDA forecasts for imports of 83 MMT in 2018/19 and 85 MMT in 2019/20. That wou...

Structural Changes

Our introduction to international grain trade came in the late 1950’s and 1960’s. At that time most U.S. grain exports were under U.S. aid programs such as PL 480 that allowed the recipient governments, which had little access to dollars or other “hard” currencies, to pa...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 August 2019 Domestic 3rd grade milling wheat prices in the European Part of Russia grew in ruble expression and decreased in dollar expression due to weakening of the ruble. 4th grade milling wheat prices decreased and feed wheat prices remained stable. Milling rye...

Drought Shifting Consumption

Southeast Asia has experienced droughty conditions the past several months and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia/Pacific region says it is part of a longer-term meteorological trend. The change is most adversely impacting rice production and will likely benefit whea...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 August 2019 Domestic wheat prices in the European Part of Russia mainly increased, at different rates in different regions, while wheat prices in Siberia mainly decreased. Corn prices started decreasing in Southern regions as harvesting began. Export prices for whea...

Japan Deal Unveiled, Promised as a Big Deal for U.S. Corn

The announcement of a U.S.- Japan trade agreement over the weekend at the G7 couldn’t have come at a better time for the markets and for President Trump’s political fortunes.  The politics out in farm country had been turning ugly after the most recent tariff escalation with Ch...

Commodity Sales Commitments

President Trump makes every free market economist cringe when he boasts about getting agreement from other national leaders to purchase more American products, usually specifically referencing agricultural products. He insisted on soybean purchases being written into an agreement with Europe, h...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 August 2019 Domestic prices in the European part of Russia mainly increased, partially because of the limited offer that resulted from many producers trying to determine what offer price to quote amid active demand from exporters and domestic animal feed producers...

Trade, Ethanol, and Politics

In gearing up for agriculture and ag policy, the 2020 election cycle is being looked at through the prism of politics. Typically, the farm vote is reliably Republican. Aimpoint Research, in collaboration with Agri-Pulse Communications and the American Farm Bureau Federation, conducted a poll du...

Economic Conundrum; Trade Adjustment Assistance

Economic Conundrum The West turned unhappy with China’s trade and economic practices before Donald Trump, but it is unclear that his approach to the problem is working. While the trade hit on U.S. agriculture is clear, the American side is generally faring worse from the trade war. China&...

Grain Markets Face Uncertainty

It is said that grain traders seek certainty, but grain markets thrive on uncertainty. The days since USDA released its WASDE on 12 August have offered the latest example of this dichotomy. Of course when it comes to grain markets, seldom are potential market-moving factors ever certain. Howeve...

Pork Exports Show Signs of Progress and Risk

The June export data for pork shows the Jekyll and Hyde situation facing the industry. Typically, those sales follow the seasonal slaughter pattern and start to drop off in June, but the latest export totals painted a mixed picture that reflects the uncertainty in the export market. Exports are...

Focus on New Products/Markets

Brazil has the largest fleet of cars converted to use the highest blends of ethanol, and the government is reportedly debating whether to remove duties on imports of the U.S.-sourced fuel. As is usual in many countries, the agriculture ministry opposes such a move, but others in the government...

Reshaping Markets

The renminbi fell below 7 to the U.S. dollar this past Friday, and that raises the risk of at least two possible developments: 1) the exodus of money out of China; and 2) a declaration by Washington that Beijing is a currency manipulator. The situation adds one more variable to an already tense...

Tariff Impacts Not Unilateral

Tariffs are effectively a tax, but many partisans are overstating their impact. Frequently, the pundits are saying the tariffs being imposed on China only hurt American consumers. If tariffs only hurt the country imposing them, why would governments in the targeted countries always implement re...

War into 2021; Trade Untruths

War into 2021 The Vietnam War lasted 17 years and four months, and the war in Afghanistan now exceeds that length. The U.S.–China trade war is not expected to be that drawn out, but the lack of any progress from this week’s negotiations along with President Trump’s remark that...

Hog and Cattle Market Cues from Cold Storage

USDA’s monthly Cold Storage report was released on Monday, and it showed the 30 June red meat and poultry inventory at 2.392 billion pounds, 97.2 percent of the 31 May stocks but 104.7 percent of the 30 June 2018 total. Each species followed its typical monthly pattern for June: Chicken...

USMCA’s Timid Opposition; India’s Gift to Trump; Warren’s Gamble with Opponents

USMCA’s Timid Opposition A coalition of 600 business groups wrote a letter urging the U.S. Congress to quickly pass the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The demand is unsurprising but what is notable is the lack of a choreographed campaign of opposition to the USMCA. Over 1,500 civil...

Feeding the World

The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...

Livestock Roundup: Losing Count of Chinese Pigs; Cattle on Feed Preview

Losing Count of Chinese Pigs Yesterday China announced a new African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Sichuan Province, bringing the total now reported to more than 140. In the hog and pork world, it is ASF all day, every day. That is THE black swan event in the market for the world’s most c...

Trump Policy Gets Support; Friends and Neighbors

Trump Policy Gets Support Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is in Washington this week and told an Atlantic Council audience that instead of fighting the Trump administration’s effort to rewrite the rules for multilateral institutions like the WTO, “we” should accept this opport...

The Fed’s Upcoming Decision: To Cut or Not to Cut?

The Federal Reserve looks poised to cut interest rates - or does it? This depends upon whether you consider what the Fed says it looks at – inflation and job growth – or read the minutes of its last meeting. Of course, the decision is catalyzed by the president’s jawboning the...

Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Soy Highlights; U.S. Soy Export Sales

Soy-Related Changes in USDA WASDE Report USDA somewhat surprised market analysts today by reducing the forecast for U.S. soybean production in 2019 by more than most expected to 3.845 billion bushels (104.64 MMT) from its June forecast of 4.15 billion bushels (112.95 MMT). This followed the dec...

U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost; Varied GMO Approaches

U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost Junnosuke Kobara at Nikkei provides analysis showing that while Japanese farmers may be few in number, they have outsized influence when voting as a bloc. The analysis is important because there is an Upper House election in two weeks, and the Abe government is negotiat...

Eastern Europe’s Good Deal; Firms Prepare for Long War; Slick Cooking the Books

Eastern Europe’s Good Deal The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission published the results from analyzing the quality of 1,400 foods across 19 member states, which found no ‘East-West food quality discrimination in Europe.’ The study was precipitated by complaints i...

Trade Blame Game; Funding the War; Attack on Productivity

Trade Blame Game Deborah Elms of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre told a Washington audience this week that the U.S. flouting international trade rules is encouraging Asian countries to do likewise. This may be true if viewed in isolation, but then the inverse can also be said – Asi...

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Food Inflation Reaches Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years The effects of the August 2018 outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) have continued to reverberate across China’s economy in 2019. In the second quarter of this year, food inflation has hit levels not seen since 2...

Is the Immigration-Tariff Deal with Mexico a Template for China Breakthrough?

There is a great deal of speculation on whether Presidents Trump and Xi will actually meetand/or come to a deal at the G20 Summit in Osaka on 28 and 29 June. Much of the rhetoric from the U.S. side has continued to take a tough stance in trade talks with China. However, it is now more than a ye...

Trump G20 Plan; Trade Policy Potpourri

Trump G20 Plan Donald Trump has been relentless at pressuring other NATO members to meet their commitments in terms of funding the organization’s military capacity. His admonitions have been backed by NATO’s secretary general and major media organizations like the Financial Times. I...

No Growth Out of Bear Market

Historically, the keys to getting out of bear commodity markets have been economic growth and production cuts in response to low prices. Rising grain and oilseed stocks from the 1997 Asian financial crisis began to subside as the recovery in world gross domestic product (GDP) growth boosted dem...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA Reported:  This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 include higher beginning and ending stocks.  Beginning stocks are raised reflecting a 75-million-bushel reduction in projected exports for 2018/19 based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and a...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week as the hot, dry weather over parts of Russia did not scare it. Weather maps are showing ample soil and subsoil moisture accumulated during April and May in the southern region. High temperatures in June are common there, and the wheat is t...

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean futures were both lower overnight, while wheat futures found support after consecutive down days. The forecast remains favorable for spring crop planting and development, and USDA’s recent announcement that prevented planting acres will be ineligible for Market Facilitati...

Future of Trump Trade Policy; Iced Coffee

Future of Trump Trade Policy  The U.S. has lower tariffs and fewer nontariff barriers than most other countries. The theory of Trump trade policy has involved an eye for an eye – imposing tariffs to leverage more equitable treatment. It has not worked well. South Korea, Canada and Me...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Argentina Chinese demand has been active in the South American FOB market due to the trade war, and premiums firmed up quite a bit in the past few weeks. However, basis dropped slightly last week as China was not active in Argentina. A cargo was traded at 72N for July early in the week...

Livestock Roundup: Record Meat Production; Trade Breakthrough

Record Meat Production Red meat production hit a record high for April at 4.522 billion pounds, split almost evenly between beef at 2.262 billion pounds and pork at 2.692 billion pounds. It has reached 17.859 billion pounds so far in 2019, which is 102 percent of the same period in 2018. Broile...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...

Not US, MCA; Pride over Sustenance; Everyone's Politician

Not US, MCA Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has tabled the USMCA agreement in Parliament, and Mexican President André Manuel López Obrador says he will be sending it to his country’s Senate. Today the White House sent to the Congress the draft Statement of Administrat...

Ag Review - May 2019

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, outlooks for the U.S. soy complex and biofuels sectors, and an assessment of certain global trade policies. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...

Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Purchases; Southeast Asia’s Concerns; South American Soy Updates

China Deciding What to Do with Unshipped U.S. Soybean Purchases Now that trade negotiations with the U.S. have broken down, the Chinese government is apparently now deciding what to do with the more than 7 MMT of unshipped soybeans it has purchased from the U.S. Unconfirmed reports indicate Chi...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The U.S. 2019 planting season is grim, and there is little or no relief in sight based on the latest weather forecasts. The Corn Belt and northern Plains will stay wet and cool for the foreseeable future. Most of the market chatter has been about the potential reduction in U.S. corn planted acr...

Key Issues Teed Up in Congress, but No Easy Path Forward

As USDA works on the details of a $15-20 billion relief package for agriculture, intended to mitigate the impact of China’s retaliation on the Trump administration’s latest round of tariff hikes, Congress is working on a broader disaster relief bill to cover hurricane damage in the...

China Forces Trump Hand; Global Readjustment; Turkey Signaling

China Forces Trump Hand He has tried to take on the world singlehandedly, but China’s resistance has forced President Trump to back off on his objectives elsewhere. Farmers, Republicans and the U.S. economy can only handle so much controversy at once. He was forced to end tariffs on steel...

Disagree on the Disagreement; Stop Progress; Diverging Opinions; Dead Trees

Disagree on the Disagreement From the U.S. perspective, its goals for a trade agreement with China have been clear all along, and it was Beijing that backtracked when it deleted nearly a third of the 150-page draft document. From the perspective of China, it is Washington that has been untrustw...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Cash Payment Issues The volatility in forex markets and the Argentine peso’s devaluation led to government intervention in the debate between farmers and exporters. On contracts executed in USD, farmers were claiming that they were losing money between the time the forex...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week due to the absence of export demand for old crop as well as the bearish outlook of last Friday’s USDA reports. The USDA estimate for the Russian crop of 77 MMT is probably conservative as most Russian analysts’ numbers...

WASDE Soyoil

USDA Notes: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is forecast at 124.2 million tons, down 9.6 million from 2018/19, mainly on lower soybean production.  Production forecasts are also lower for canola, but higher for sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed.   Soybean oil prices...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA Notes: The U.S. soybean crush for 2019/20 is projected at 2,115 million bushels, up from the 2018/19 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance partly offset by lower soybean meal exports.  Soybean meal prices are forecast at $290 per short ton, down $15.00 from 2018/19. &nb...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA Notes: The 2019/20 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and slightly lower ending stocks compared to 2018/19.  The soybean crop is projected at 4,150 million bushels, down 394 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yie...

WASDE Corn

USDA Notes: Total U.S. corn use in 2019/20 is forecast to rise relative to a year ago as greater domestic use offsets a slight decline in exports.  Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected to rise 50 million bushels to 7.0 billion.  Corn used for ethanol is projected to...

Trade Matters; State Legislation on CAFOs

Trade Matters Ag markets are on pins and needles as they wait to see if a trade deal can be salvaged from the U.S.-China negotiations now taking place in Washington, DC. In the livestock and poultry sector, that anxiety extends to the fate of the USMCA in Congress and the negotiations with Japa...

Pivotal May 10th; Socialist Agriculture; Cost of Diversity

Pivotal May 10th Markets this Friday have two metrics to watch: the WASDE and Donald Trump’s tariffs on the Chinese. His threat to substantially ramp up the trade war with China if there is no deal by Friday initially crashed Wall Street, but it mostly recovered. The FTSE in Europe closed...

Amateur Hour

As the U.S. and China reportedly near the conclusion of bilateral trade negotiations, Trump administration officials are turning their focus to Japan, though in somewhat unhelpful ways. Perhaps anxious to placate farmers who have borne the adverse brunt of the president’s trade wars and T...

India’s Water; Politicized Trade; Trade Negotiation Outcomes

India’s Water India is still hoping to hold the Trump administration from removing it from eligibility for lower tariffs under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The latest message from New Delhi is that the government is looking at increasing imports from the U.S. to reduce its...

U.S.-China Implications; U.S.-Japan Reality Check; Trade War Costs; CFTC Retirement Gift

U.S.–China Implications Some reports indicate a U.S.–China trade deal will be announced by the end of next week. Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney had a potentially worse message for U.S. agriculture, saying the administration is prepared to walk away from the talks if...

Trade Economics and GDP

U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 3.2 percent, according to the initial report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) last Friday. That estimate is subject to further revisions on 30 May. Of note are the following factors:  GDP growth came in far higher th...

Hill Jam; SOE Definition; Sweet Data

Hill Jam Researchers at the University of Warwick in the UK affirm the work of other economists in finding that the imposition of tariffs harms both the foreign countries supplying goods and the nation erecting such market access barriers. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe affirmed that princi...

Market Commentary

Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s closes in overnight trade, and they even managed to finish mostly in the green as the day session ended. To be sure, they were unable to hang on...

Permanent Pivot on Trade Policy; U.S.-China Deal Rollout; U.S.-Japan Timing

Permanent Pivot in Trade Policy German Green Party member of the European Parliament Martin Häusling and other politicians are telling the European Commission to stand up to the threats of President Donald Trump. Many in Europe are hoping to wait out Trump with hopes of a U.S. return in 20...

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Low Argentine Soy Protein; Bearish Soybeans

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights U.S. export sales of soybeans and soymeal were up in the week ending 18 April, but soyoil sales and exports declined from the previous week. Net soybean export sales for 2018/19 shipment totaled 596,300 MT, mainly to unknown destinations (230,700 MT), China (212...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 April 2019 While grain prices on the domestic market mostly dropped in RUB expression, they grew slightly in USD expression due to the strengthening of the ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat sea export price fell to $222/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase price...

Tri-Rift; Labor Waves

Tri-Rift President Donald Trump has ripped apart the trilateral EU-Japan-U.S. policy consortium and looks to increasingly target Europe with his bitterness. Yesterday he threatened reciprocity for Europe’s retaliatory duties against Harley Davidson, and the intent by Brussels to evade his...

Polarized WTO; Nonautomatic Market Economy; Free Trade Diversion

Polarized WTO It is not just politics in the U.S. and Europe that are polarized – so is the global trading system. India plans to host developing country members of the WTO at a meeting next week in New Delhi to discuss how to boost their advantage in the organization. India and others co...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview Chinese demand remains very slow. There was some tepid interest for nearby positions, but basis has continued to drop in Argentina and drag Brazilian prices lower. Argentina Argentina’s harvest reached 20 percent completion last week (6 percent below last year) wi...

U.S.-Japan FTA Goals and Scope

Preliminary negotiations on a new free trade agreement (FTA) between the U.S. and Japan commenced today. Since the U.S. withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017, Japan has entered into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as well as...

Asia Perspectives; Pesticidal Suicide

Asia Perspectives President Donald Trump said yesterday that North Korea will remain under sanctions but that he believes an agreement with Pyongyang will eventually be reached. Robert Manning at the Atlantic Council is not so sure. Manning notably argues that Kim Jong-un is not attracted by th...

USDA Makes Changes to WASDE Tables

USDA announced this week that it will make some changes (noted below) to the monthly WASDE (supply and demand estimates) starting with the May report. While not huge, these modifications will likely add clarity and should have been implemented long ago. They will not affect the actual numbers b...

Hog Wild Pork Markets

After a few weeks out of the market, China purchased 77,700 MT of U.S. pork last week. That makes it the number three destination (behind Mexico and Korea) for pork exports in 2019. Export sales totaled 90,700 MT, including to Korea (3,600 MT), Chile (2,900 MT), Japan (2,200 MT), Australia (1,8...

Can’t Walk the Talk; Limited Policy Options; On the Other Foot

Can’t Walk the Talk German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, and he is advising “all parties” to avoid any escalation in trade tensions. Herr Scholz is no doubt concerned that the Germ...

Oilseed Highlights: WASDE; EU to Face Retaliation; Maple Leaf Foods;, French Rapeseed

Relatively Few Significant Changes to Soy Sector in WASDE USDA made very few changes to its supply and distribution tables for the soy sector in the April WASDE, but among the few significant revisions to its estimates were the following: - Brazil’s 2018 soybean crop was raised from 120.0...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview Brazilian basis has been dropping due to lack of Chinese demand. Although board crush margins aren’t bad in China, soymeal and soyoil basis levels are not helping crushers hedge their purchases. Basis is responding to the low demand from Chinese hog and poultry pr...

Difficult Tea Leaves; Policy Shorts

Difficult Tea Leaves President Trump previously laid down a hard 90-day deadline for reaching a trade agreement with China, but now he says one could arrive "within the next four weeks or maybe less, or maybe more, whatever it takes." Some say timing of a deal is driven by Mr. Trump being in Ja...

Broiler/Feed Demand Outlook; U.S.-Japan FTA Broiler Opportunities; No Pork Sales to China; Skinny Cattle

Broiler and Feed Demand Outlook Last week’s USDA Chicken and Egg report showed that broiler-type chicks hatched in February were 102.1 percent of last year. Market predictions for March are around 101.5 percent year over year, and expectations are that hatching will continue at that pace...

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; China’s U.S. Soybean Purchases; Paraguay’s Soy Crop

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Export sales for the week ending 28 March were significantly higher for U.S. soybeans, and they were also up for soymeal and soyoil. However, it will take several similar weeks for U.S. soy exports to reach USDA’s forecasts for 2018/19. Net soybean export...

Fake Issue Campaign; Trade Policy Suicide

Fake Issue Campaign During the 2016 campaign, candidate Donald Trump manufactured many fake issues such as illegal immigrants causing a crime wave and NAFTA being the worst deal ever. His mainstream opponents avoided such hyperbole, and Trump won. Now the Democratic Party candidates are all try...

U.S. Red Meat Losing Ground in Japan; Trump’s Mexican Border Threat

U.S. Red Meat Losing Ground in Japan It is the first day of the fiscal year in Japan, and duties on beef, pork and other commodities dropped under both the Japan-EU Economic Policy Agreement (EPA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) for exportin...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis