Europe is facing an energy crisis this coming winter and the food situation could be bad as well. This summer’s drought, reduced corn and sunflower o...
Articles
Proposed 2023 RVOs Coming in November
On 11 July, WPI reported that the 2023 required volume obligations (RVOs) were expected to come in mid-September; that was based on a proposed consent decr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.14/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.815/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA region barley buyers are looking more to French barley as supplies fr...
Market Commentary: Market Trending as Traders Position for WASDE
The CBOT was mixed in quiet trade to start the week with traders looking at the U.S. and EU weather forecasts for supply-side guidance ahead of Friday&rsqu...
Inflation Reduction Act Passes Senate
As WPI covered on 29 July, after many months of negotiating with Senator Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7975/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers took advantage of good weather conditions and corn with nearly ideal moisture levels and pushed the harvest an additional 7 percent last week...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Ukrainian government announced last week that, after a review of its new grain export corridors, it expects to export 3 MMT of grain mon...
No Rice Shortage
Food scarcity has been a frequent headline this year but with food inflation now dropping along with commodity prices, rice is an example of the scare that...
Market Commentary: Weather Outlook Supports Corn; USDA Confirms China Soy Buying; Cattle and Hogs Rally on Packer Demand
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat remaining under pressure from Ukraine’s slow but growing grain export program and from the large Russia...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Kill a Competitor; North American Lumber
Kill a Competitor Polling shows that former Brazilian President Luix Inácio Lula da Silva will beat the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, in the upcoming 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Breaking Down the Data Behind Today’s Big Jobs Report
On Monday, WPI discussed the state of the economy (What is a Recession and Why Does it Matter if We’re In One?). As we wrote, “The whole situat...
Oilseeds Highlights – Lots to Churn
The soybean market has been jostled this week, always by weather anomalies, second by a crop progress report that showed, well progress, and third, controv...
Export Sales
Export Sales for July 22-28, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 249,900 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 55...
Market Commentary: Small Rebound
The trading session opened kind of sluggish, not even meeting the overnight closes. There was uncertainty in grains and oilseeds, though not in livestock s...
Taiwan FTA Foolery
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is doubling down on her support of Taiwan and attack on China. She said a free trade agreement (FTA) with Taiwan “mig...
Livestock Round Up: Will There be a Weather Market for Hogs?
Hog slaughter is running about 3.7 percent below last year, but live slaughter weights/carcass weights are up so the drop in pork production is only about...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0625/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: WCB Heat Pushes Corn Higher; Wheat, Soy Complex Lower on Fund Selling
CBOT futures largely continued their existing trends (i.e., lower) on Wednesday, with the exception that corn futures pushed higher and scored 2-cent gains...
Tai Not Lighthizer?; Cart Before the Horse
Tai Not Lighthizer? In one of the odder developments, Congressional Democrats are complaining about a lack of consultation by USTR over trade policy pursui...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Ag Ministry Pushes Hog Industry Toward Moderation The market exuberance regarding the nationwide recovery in hog prices that ran fr...
Food Inflation
U.S. gasoline prices are up 60 percent June to June and deservedly receive more than food price inflation. Year to date, consumer food inflation is at 6.7...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9625/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.6375/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 – 29 July 2022 Russia’s harvesting campaign continues. The latest forecast for wheat production in Russia is 90 MMT...
Market Commentary: Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Unnerves Grain Markets
U.S. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s surprise visit to Taiwan kept the CBOT on the defensive Tuesday amid a lack of other fundamental news. Chin...
Geopolitical Strife; ICE as Farm Bill; No Wharp Speed
Geopolitical Strife U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi surprised some after she went to Taiwan despite China’s warning that it would cause a military co...
Lowest Cost versus Export Share
The lowest cost producer is generally thought to have the advantage on market share, assuming all other resources are available. Indeed, Russian farmers ha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9425/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7475/bushel, down $0.255 from yesterday's close.&...
USTR Ag Nominee Confirmation Hearing Sparks Enforcement versus Access
After 18 months of an empty desk for the Special Agricultural Trade negotiator at USTR (and one withdrawn nominee), the Senate Finance Committee held a con...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Lebanon is scheduled to receive the first shipment of wheat from Ukraine&...
Market Commentary: Markets Fall on Ukraine Grain Exports; U.S. Crop Conditions Exceed Expectations
The day’s big news – as WPI readers will likely already know – was that a vessel carrying Ukrainian corn left the Black Sea this morning...
What is a Recession and Why Does it Matter if We’re in One?
The news and political talk shows have been abuzz about whether the economy is in a recession, moreover, it has become political, with some Republican poli...
Risky Strategy; Factoid
Risky Strategy Some Congressional and Taiwanese officials are convinced that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan this week. The U.S. Navy has repo...
Minor Player, Minor Impact
World barley carryover stocks are forecast at 16.2 MMT in 2022/23, which would be the lowest since 1983/84 when the global population was 40 percent smalle...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0975/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Perhaps the most important news on the corn market comes from the discussions between Brazil and China to accelerate the Asian giant’s purchasin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Perhaps the biggest news in the world – and especially Black Sea – grain markets is Monday’s shipment of 26 KMT of co...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.2/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0775/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Weekly Gains but Rough Day for Wheat
It was a week of big gains for corn and soybeans, and wheat as well, but today put a damper on it. Wheat, like corn and soybeans came out of the chute this...
Anti-Inflation Spending Bill
In a surprise move yesterday, Senator Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) signed off on a budget reconciliation bill with a number of tax provisions and more tha...
Oilseed Highlights – Adjustments Being Made
USA Soybeans A mini-rally has sent soybeans up 11.6 percent in value this week to a two-week high at 1468.5 cents/bushel. The market has weighed the impact...
Market Commentary: Trend is Your Friend
It was another mostly green day in agricultural futures, lending credence to the saying that the trend is your friend. Macro markets offered new variables...
Dems Get Their Package
With inflation and the hitting two quarters of negative GDP growth, the Democrats badly need a legislative win to bolster their chances in the mid-term ele...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.19/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.17/bushel, up $0.2675 from yesterday's close. No...
Export Sales
Export Sales for July 15-21, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 412,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 29 percent fr...
Livestock Round Up: Beef on Dairy Breeding Trends
The July Cattle Inventory report showed a reduction in both beef and dairy cows by 2 percent and 1 percent respectively but adding in the last “norma...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Leads Soy Complex Higher; Spring Wheat Yields Pressure Futures
The CBOT was mixed in light-volume trading at mid-week with most of the market’s attention focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve and its interest rate...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Reverses Course, Futures Down Again With the surprising uptick in domestic reproductive sow inventory, hog prices pulled back last...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.03/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.9025/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Hurdles in Wheat Production
Brazil’s Embrapa, the lead government agricultural research agency, says the goal is for the country to become self-sufficient in wheat, and that goa...
War Helps EU Farmers Win; R&D Flush; Secrecy Loses
War Helps EU Farmers Win “Virtually all” EU member states have agreed to extend derogations from the new Good Agricultural and Environmental Co...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 July 2022 The major development was without a doubt the UN Agreement unblocking Ukrainian ports followed by Russian missiles b...
Market Commentary: Weather Premium
In an otherwise benign market situation, there were solid gains today in the grain and oilseed pits. This was in part out of a recognition that U.S. crop r...
August Congressional Recess Could Set Tone for 2023 Farm Bill
Congress will soon break for the August recess. The House is expected to recess this Friday; the Senate on Friday, 5 August. House members will be in...
Calmer Approach to China
President Joe Biden is scheduled to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, the first direct conversation since March. However, it is expected to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0075/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0375/bushel, up $0.3375 from yesterday's close. ...
Record Holders of Soymeal
When it comes to holding stocks of surplus corn and wheat, no country comes close to China and the U.S. is a distant second. However, it is vastly differen...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Middle Eastern and African buyers of Black Sea grains are looking with an...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Russia Blows Up Export Deal - Again
The CBOT was sharply higher after Friday’s agreement between Russia and Ukraine regarding a grain export corridor in the Black Sea was blown up &ndas...
Nahrung folgt Energie
The EU is providing member states with near-term flexibility in blending together the goals of greening agriculture and yet producing more food and German...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. No...
Recession Impacts on Trade
Business confidence is a key factor in the economy and there is a battle over whether the Fed’s interest rate hikes (another 75 basis points coming W...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Regional Update Argentina Political and Macroeconomic Situation The Argentine economy had a very complicated week last week. While the official exchange ra...
Gasoline Demand Destruction and Bullish RINs
Like meat prices last year, gasoline prices this year have taken on a political dimension. In both cases the White House employed the bully pulpit to press...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on July 1, 2022. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.63 mill...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.6425/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.59/bushel, down $0.4725 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: Deal with the Devil
The announced deal with Russia was a major force on the market today. The quad (Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, the UN) signed an agreement providing a possible p...
Africa’s Opportunity; Dying for the Planet
Africa’s Opportunity Africa has been dependent on Russia for cheap wheat and on China for foreign direct investment. Now the U.S. and Europe are step...
Cattle Reports: On Feed Levels Steady from Year Ago, Total Cattle Inventory Down
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today and the semi-annual Cattle Inventory report. The number of cattle on feed – at feedlots of 1,00...
Oilseeds Highlights = Messed up Markets
Where to begin? Weather is a constant variable, but politicians are also always in the competition. In the nomenclature of the trade, border measures have...
Market Commentary: Rain Makes Grain, Maybe
Markets opened sharply lower with a mid-session effort at a comeback that wasn’t sustainable. The speculators for the most part have evaporated but t...
Livestock Round Up: Big Data Day for Cattle Markets Tomorrow
Tomorrow is a big day for the cattle market to digest data from some key reports. USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report, the semi-annual cattle inven...
Tax the Other Guy
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts temperatures to continue rising across Europe at a rate exceeding average global temperature cha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.735/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales for July 8-14, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 511,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 10...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Latest Hog Market Data Point to More Sows than Expected The latest data release from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate t...
Market Commentary: Favorable Weather Pressures CBOT; Hogs Extend Rally on Cash Market Strength
Weather continues to drive the CBOT price action with more rains forecast for the western Corn Belt through the end of July and into August pressuring summ...
New World Order; Cure Worse than the Disease
New World Order U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said yesterday that harsh consequences will be imposed on countries that break the international econo...
Cotton Market Shifts
While area planted to cotton is expanding elsewhere in the world, U.S. farmers are sowing less. More importantly, abandonment is projected to jump from 8.5...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.195/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 July 2022 While the world is watching several rounds of negotiations focused on unblocking Ukrainian Black Sea ports, Russia c...
Market Commentary: CBOT Moves Lower After WCB Rain Forecast; Packer Margins Worrying for Cattle, Hogs
The CBOT gave back most of Monday’s gains after U.S. weather forecasts shifted to feature more scattered showers for the western Corn Belt. Along wit...
Agriculture and Emissions
It is well known that agriculture is concurrently a contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, and a potential sink for carbon and contributor to redu...
Thinking Positive
Heat waves are on everyone’s mind, and while we lack the expertise to accurately predict the impact of climate change on agricultural production, his...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1225/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&...
House Ag Appropriations Bill Highlights Top Ag Issues
Yesterday, the House Rules Committee met to develop the “rule” for considering a “minibus’ package of seven annual appropriations f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s government will be selling 120,000 MT of wheat to the Wo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Hot, Dry Weather Forecast, Fund Short-Covering
The CBOT rallied to start the week on a combination of follow-through buying from Friday’s corn and soybean gains as well as a hot, dry forecast for...
Future for Agriculture
To some analysts, the current global crisis is because we have outsourced too much - labor, energy, food, national security. That has opened the pathway fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1075/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1275/bushel, up $0.36 from yesterday's close. ...
Surprise ITC Vote on UAN Fertilizer Tariffs, Executive Order on Rail Labor Dispute
Today, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) voted not to impose antidumping (AD) duties on UAN from Russia and Trinidad and Tobago (see prior cove...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat New crop wheat continues to capture the attention of many farmers, traders, and analysts in Argentina. The drought is not ending and there are places...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7675/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: CBOT Caps Volatile Week with Quiet Day; Weather Increasingly Important
After a week of stunning volatility, the CBOT ended Friday with quiet trade that saw summer row crops firm while the wheat selloff continued, though in mut...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Policy Whiplash; Policy Foolhardy
Policy Whiplash A few weeks ago, and under pressure over food security concerns, EU Executive Vice President and Green Deal cheerleader Frans Timmermans re...
Oilseeds Highlights – A Whirlwind
Fears of macroeconomic weakness weighed on markets this past week. That and quad (Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, UN) discussions about opening Ukrainian exports...
Record Inflation Bringing Nuance to Biden Administration Policies
As this week’s CPI (up 9.1 percent June to June) and PPI (up 11.3 percent June to June) reports indicate, inflation is not “transitory.”...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.01/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.95/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Continued Pressure from Macros
Few people like the big banks but they can set the mood and that is what happened with reports of earnings declining at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. The ov...
Livestock Round Up: Food Inflation Sets Another Record; Meat Lags All Food
As Matt Herrington covered yesterday, consumer inflation was up, and on an annual basis food inflation led the all-goods Consumer Price Index (CPI), althou...
Transatlantic Merger; Reorganization In Lieu of Oversight; Caribbean Competition
Transatlantic Merger Russia’s invasion of Ukraine said to have united NATO, but one U.S. diplomat says that transatlantic agricultural policy is also...
Export Sales
Export Sales for July 1-7, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 1,017,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior...
Market Commentary: Commodities Bounce After Overdone WASDE Selloff; U.S. Inflation Accelerates, Creates Commodity Tailwinds
The CBOT seemed to find its footing following the WASDE-induced selloff on Tuesday with corn and soybeans pushing lower at the open but quickly finding sup...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices See Biggest Jump in Nearly Two Years Not since September 2020 has the average cost of food in China risen by more than 3 percent...
Knowledge-based Policymaking; Russia’s Quid Pro Quo
Knowledge-based Policymaking A new report called Unleash Prosperity chides the Biden Administration for its dearth of business experience. Of the 68 top of...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9525/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1075/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&n...
Timidity in a Brave New World
American farmers like to think they are innovative but when it comes to GMO wheat, it was Argentina that was the first mover. Bioceres’ drought resis...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 4-8 July 2022 Russia’s harvest continues showing good results thus supporting an optimistic forecast for wheat production duri...
WASDE Soyoil
Soyoil – USDA’s July estimate is for the U.S. seasonal average price of soybean oil in 2022/23 to be 69 cents per pound - down 1 cent...
WASDE Soymeal
Soymeal – USDA’s July estimate is for the U.S. seasonal average price of soybean meal in 2022/23 to be $390.00 per short ton, down $10.00. ...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans – USDA’s July estimate is for U.S. soybean production at 4.5 billion bushels, down 135 million on lower harvested area. Harveste...
WASDE Corn
Corn – USDA’s July estimate is for larger U.S. supplies and higher ending stocks. U.S. corn production is up 45 million bushels due...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat – USDA’s July estimate is for larger U.S. supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks: Supplies are raised on increased prod...
Market Commentary: July WASDE Neutral/Bearish, CBOT Collapses Anyway
The CBOT was not in a good mood Tuesday (at least not from a long’s perspective) as it opened on the defensive and found reasons to justify a massive...
Farmers Pay the Price; Incorrigible Skeptics; Leveraging Security
Farmers Pay the Price Argentina is giving assurance that it will make payment on its IMF loans, but it will not be easy. Inflation is soaring and the peso...
Dollar Weighs on U.S. Exporters
The dollar and the euro reached parity for the first time in two decades, and the dollar is rising in value against other currencies. This is the result of...
WASDE Livestock and Poultry
Today’s Word Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report slightly lowered its forecast for total red meat and poultry production compared...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.865/bushel, down $0.425 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1425/bushel, down $0.4225 from yesterday's close.&...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Yemen is expected to be dependent on India for its wheat supply for 2022...
Market Commentary: Early Strength Fades on Profit Taking, pre-WASDE Positioning
On Sunday night, the CBOT seemed set to dramatically extend last week’s rally with corn, wheat, and soybeans all gapping higher at the open in respon...
Rotten Cotton
The war against GMO’s is still playing out in Africa. French news platform RFI reports that farmers in Kenya are fighting over whether to grow Bt cot...
Anti-Antitrust; Indecision
Anti-Antitrust After two juries failed to reach a verdict and a federal judge questioned further pursuit of the charge of price fixing, the U.S. Department...
60 Days Until RFS Reset: Things to Watch
In 2005 Congress passed the Energy Policy Act (EPA) which created the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) statutory schedule. The 2005 EPA was amended it in 2007...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.29/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.565/bushel, down $0.35 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomic Outlook Argentina remains in chaos. In the last few weeks, the country has endured a strike of transporters protesting the lack of diesel, wh...
European Market Analysis
Regional News World wheat and commodity prices remain on the defensive as 2022/23 wheat shortage estimates are less dire than previously predicted an...
Export Sales
Export Sales for June 24-30, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 286,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for Taiwan (42,800 MT), Japan (39,500 MT), South Ko...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.235/bushel, up $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.915/bushel, up $0.55 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Reversal Rally on Weather, Pre-WASDE Positioning
The CBOT rally that started on Wednesday continued into Friday as traders bought back short positions and added slight length to positions heading into the...
North American Live Animal Trade
USDA released monthly trade data today, including live animal trade in North America. Feeder calves from Mexico through May, at 372,342 head are down 31 pe...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Inverted Farm Politics; Most Honorable Shinzō Abe
Inverted Farm policy Politics Farmers in the U.S. tend to be conservative and vote Republican. This can sometimes be perverse. The U.S. House Republican St...
Oilseeds Highlights – Noose Around the Neck
Soybean Pressures Global oilseed supplies are tight and under further threat. More dry heat is coming to the U.S. Midwest and if it persists into August, t...
Market Commentary: Finally a Reversal
After weeks of pushing commodity indices into near-record drops, everything opened and closed today in the green, except for feeder cattle. Reversing the o...
USMCA Challenge; Throwback Thursday
USMCA Challenge There will be trilateral meetings between USMCA ministers and then national leaders later this year. Foreign policy analysts conclude that...
Livestock Round Up: Making Hay
Last week’s acreage reports showed corn acres up, and this week, Brazil’s CONAB is showing a slight increase in the safrinha corn crop, all off...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.365/bushel, up $0.32 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Surging Hog and Pork Prices Draw Government’s Attention Recent surveys conducted by China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Global Recession Fears Grow
The CBOT was mixed Wednesday after oilseed markets traded higher overnight but ran into strong selling pressure during the day session. Wheat posted yet an...
Support for Trade; Energy Stress Focuses the Mind; Who Trusts GMO’s?
Support for Trade Democrats and Republicans do not agree on much but House Ways & Means Committee Chair Richard Neal (D-Massachusetts) and Ranking Memb...
Canada’s Declining Barley Area
Stats Canada issued its estimate that 7 million acres (2.83 million hectares) will be planted to barley this year. That is 15.6 percent less than last year...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.045/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 27 June-1 July 2022 Russia continued harvesting grains and it seems like the 2022 crop will be very close to a record. Russian Grai...
Market Commentary: Global Macro Worries, Technical Selling Spark CBOT Selloff
The CBOT ended sharply lower on Tuesday amid a wicked combination of a rising U.S. dollar, favorable weekend rains in the Midwest, and a “risk off&rd...
Making the Trains Run on Time
Rail capacity and operational issues have been market factors the past 18 months or more, and are increasingly having an impact as evidenced by reports of...
History Repeating is Okay
According to the news, multilateralism and globalization are in crisis. No less than U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said, “it&rsqu...
Mysterious Markets
President Biden tweeted over the weekend that, “My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey has been asked by the Ukraine to seize a vessel from Russia with 7...
U.S. Independence Day Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets will be closed on Monday, 4 July in observance of the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Continued Fund Liquidation, Favorable U.S. Weather
The CBOT was sharply lower to end the week with traders taking risk off the table amid Thursday’s post-USDA report weakness and a three-day weekend l...
Friday Trade Policy Shorts; Bets on Grain and Implementation
Friday Trade Policy Shorts EU Procedural: Jurisdictional issues arise as the pesticide restrictions proposed in the EU fall under DG-Sante, but the funding...
4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol
Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasti...
Oilseeds Highlights – Supply is Responding
Soybeans did not beat corn after all in the annual battle for acres. USDA’s Acreage report this week revealed that 88.33 million acres will be plante...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.46/bushel, down $0.38 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Some Tweaks but Bearish Weather
Trading was mostly lower before USDA released its Acreage and Stocks reports at noon eastern time today. The reports could have been market movers but much...
Staying in Lanes; Goodbye Ag; East-West Helps the Poor
Staying in Lanes Under ideal governance, elected legislatures create the principles of public policy. For example, pesticides should be used when proven sc...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1975/bushel, down $0.34 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.84/bushel, down $0.46 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report Meets Market Expectations
As previewed on Tuesday, USDA released the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yesterday. The report was neutral, coming very close to pre-report expectations...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Remains Hot, Jumps More Than 6 Percent in One Day Tuesday saw the national average live hog price single day increase of RMB 1.12/...
Export Sales
Export Sales for June 17-23, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 496,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for the Philippines (68,000 MT), Brazil...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.5375/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $9.3/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Soy Rally Continues on Strong Demand; Jul-Sep Corn Spread Hits $1.06; Bullish Hogs and Pigs Report
The CBOT ended mixed with the soy complex rallying on strong soymeal and a turnaround in soyoil prices, coupled with a hot, dry August U.S. weather forecas...
Food Crisis in Mexico; No Easy End to War
Food Crisis in Mexico Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) visits President Joe Biden in the White House next month and farme...
No Global Food Crisis
The so-called global food crisis is first and foremost driven by the wheat market, where production has been under stress in major countries like Pakistan,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 20-24 June 2022 Russia launched harvesting in the Southern Federal District as well as in seized and annexed Ukrainian Crimea. Othe...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday; Weather Now Secondary to USDA Reports
The CBOT posted a Turnaround Tuesday with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex pushing higher after the recent weakness. Soybeans and soymeal led the ra...
Hogs and Pigs Preview
USDA will release the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report tomorrow. All hogs and pigs as of 1 June are expected to be down 0.7 percent from last year to 72.641...
Properly Characterizing China; Concrete Plan Needed
Properly Characterizing China Former President Donald Trump had a lot of choice descriptors for China, many of them crude. Europe tried the term “str...
Feed Demand from Stopping IUR
The WTO has been searching for limits in fisheries subsidies since at least 2001. There was agreement earlier this month to curb subsidies, though overfish...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.595/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $9.36/bushel, up $0.185 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is hoping to increase the 2023 planted area by 1 million acres. In...
Market Commentary: Grains Still Defensive; Soy Complex Rallies on Spot Demand
The CBOT selloff continued on Monday with new crop corn and wheat futures leading the way lower. Favorable weather for the Corn Belt pressured corn futures...
Recession, Maybe Not – More Inflation, Yes
There is new economic data out showing that the economy is not destined for a recession (near term, anyway). The impact of increased interest rates may jus...
Stopping Transition Volatility; Labor Policy Influences Politics; Short Straw
Stopping Transition Volatility Policymakers set targets related to sustainability to achieve desired end goals. These include reducing pesticide use by 30...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.4425/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $9.175/bushel, down $0.19 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Russia Threatens Vegetable Oil
Oil palms require fertilizer every three months to maintain productivity but Russia’s war in Ukraine has threatened world supplies and driven up pric...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat situation is increasingly complicated. It has not rained for several weeks, and the soil moistures are insufficient for plant...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed up 1 percent on June 1, 2022 - at 11.8 million head. (USDA notes that this is the highest June 1 inventory since the series began in 19...
Market Commentary – Tough Week
There was some reprieve today, but the cumulative toll of noncommercial selling has left its mark on the market. Speculators reduced their net long positio...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.5025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $9.365/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Cattle on Feed: Another Record
USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 11.8 million, 101 percent above June 2021, and the hi...
Oilseeds Highlights – Prices Plummet with Sales
Although soybeans closed higher today, it could not offset the losses over the previous four trading sessions and left July soybeans nearly a dollar lower...
Export Sales
Export Sales for June 10-16, 2022 Wheat: Net Export Sales of 477,800 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for Japan (163,900 MT), Mexico (1...
Market Commentary: OVERSOLD
Markets remained under pressure today amid the scare of a recession and a drop in demand. The fear is somewhat overstated in grains and oilseeds since rece...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.4675/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $9.4925/bushel, down $0.395 from yesterday's close...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 June at 101.5 per...
Gutsy USTR; Inflation Beats Exports; Ruble Hell
Gutsy USTR USTR Katherine Tai is in an interagency battle over whether to lift tariffs on China to try and stem inflation, and she’s not backin...
Market Commentary: Technicals Are Breaking Down
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with a collapsing crude oil market and sharp selloffs in European commodity markets pressuring values. Tuesday&rsquo...
Toughest Commodity Business
While many agricultural commodities are experiencing a boom in demand and prices, orange juice consumption has plummeted worldwide. Global demand over the...
Green Food Crisis; Geopolitical Collusion
Green Food Crisis Regardless of the war in Ukraine and a global food price shock, the EU is moving forward with its plan to cut by half the use of “r...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics COVID-19 Produces Largest Food Cost Increase in 18 Months It has taken a few weeks, but data from China’s National Bureau of Sta...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.68/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $9.765/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13-17 June 2022 Russia launched its harvesting campaign which pushed grain prices down, especially in the Southern Federal District...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.62/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $9.84/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Ignoring Wall Street
While outside financial markets worked at reversing last week’s plunge into bear territory, agricultural commodity markets started the shortened trad...
Cattle Market Issues and Dairy Policy on Tap for Tomorrow’s Congressional Agenda
Last week, WPI reported that the House passed the Livestock Special Investigator Act as part of the Lower Food and Fuel Costs Act. Tomorrow, the Senate Agr...
Friends in High Places; Fertilizer Crisis; Import Solution
Friends in High Places The Biden Administration submitted an amicus brief to the Supreme Court on the challenge by livestock producers to California’...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Almarai Dairy Products will be investing $107 millio...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed Monday, 20 June 2022 in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspec...